If you thought the Russians were sneaky…

From NJ101.5:

If you’re looking to buy a house in New Jersey be forewarned – the people selling the house may have you under secret surveillance.

As the price of video security systems like nanny cams continues to drop and the units get smaller and smaller, an increasing number of home sellers are using the devices to record the conversations of prospective buyers in order to get information that may be useful to them in the event an offer for the home is made and negotiations follow.

“I had a listing where the owner was giving me a hard time during negotiations, indicating he was staying firm on his price because he knows the buyer loved the house,” said Dekanski. “When I asked him how do you know that, he said I was watching them on the nanny cam. And since then we’ve heard of it happening time and time again.”

He said this has become such an issue that “if we know that the property is being surveilled we do have to disclose it, the problem we have sometimes is that every homeowner isn’t forthcoming with that.”

He said a growing number of homeowners do have these systems, “so we do ask, and if they do say yes then, of course, we do disclose that they (the buyers) may be under surveillance when walking the property inside and out.”

Dekanski says under New Jersey law, if someone is going to have a surveillance system operating while prospective buyers are in their home they do have to disclose and it’s illegal to record somebody on your property without them knowing.

“You absolutely have to disclose to us as agents and to the buyers and anybody walking the property that there’s a possibility they may be under surveillance.”

He notes some individuals still may keep this information a secret so when someone on his team is showing a home, “I make sure I do instruct them when they first get going with us to tell the buyer to not speak their mind as far as motivation and pricing.”

“We don’t want to necessarily discuss our motivation, how much we like the home. We don’t want to show our cards, we want to negotiate as best we can.”

Dekanski says real estate agents aren’t thrilled about the uptick in surveillance recording devices being used because it can be deceptive — but also misleading.

“The reality is a conversation somebody has in your home, from the time they have that conversation to the time they maybe actually make an offer on the property, a lot can change.”

This entry was posted in Humor, New Jersey Real Estate. Bookmark the permalink.

243 Responses to If you thought the Russians were sneaky…

  1. Californicator says:
  2. grim says:

    Should be our official state song.

  3. grim says:

    I like how Murphy is taking the credit for getting sports betting legalized now.

    I bet he spends all the money before a single dime is collected (or the state law is even passed).

  4. Californicator says:

    Murphy sounds like a real putz.

  5. Hold my beer says:

    That school bus driver was 77 years old.

  6. Hold my beer says:

    Murphy wants 1.5 billion in new taxes by July even though NJ’s economy is lagging the rest of the nation.

  7. grim says:

    That school bus driver was 77 years old.

    And he attempted to cut clear across Rt 80 to make an illegal u-turn.

    This is absolutely mind boggling. I know that cross-over. I wouldn’t dare attempt that even in a sports car that could stop and accelerate significantly faster than a bus. It is an impossibility, at a minimum you would be stopped in two fast lanes, never mind cutting something like 4 or 5 lanes of traffic to do it.

  8. Blue Ribbon Teacher says:

    I’ve always said whatever survival instincts that humans have, for some reason, go out the window when they miss an exit on a highway. I’ve never understood the mad rush, especially given the fact that all these psychotic things people do on the road yield at most an extra minute or two in an hour ride.

    As per New Providence yesterday. A real estate agent said years ago that all new purchases were from Asian families. If this is true, the school system becomes an improving one. I don’t know if there is land to do this but if they could get a new development, it would essentially become Basking Ridge 2.0.

    One thing I hate about New Providence is the drivers. Everyone will cut you off for no reason. I actually put a dashboard camera on my car specifically because of drivers in New Providence. I get cut off at least once a day driving through that town.

  9. 30 year realtor says:

    Pumpkin,
    I am not a real estate salesperson! I am an analyst. All I do is analyze properties scheduled for sheriff sales. I provide as is and repaired values with renovation budgets. I spend endless hours sifting through data. I do not show houses and I do not solicit for listings. My compensation is a percentage of my client’s profit from the investments I recommend and the listing commissions from these properties. We purchase about 25 properties per year in North Jersey and the average sale price is about $600,000.

    On the other hand you are correct that the average real estate salesperson knows little about real estate.

    The Great Pumpkin says:
    May 21, 2018 at 11:19 am
    3b/expat,

    I’m calling it like I see it. Since when are real estate agents good at the economics of their market? They sell, not predict.

  10. Juice Box says:

    Correlation between the Media and mass shootings?

    “Dr. Dietz again: “I have repeatedly told CNN and our other media, if you don’t want to propagate more mass murders, don’t start the story with sirens blaring. Don’t have photographs of the killer. Don’t make this 24/7 coverage. Do everything you can not to make the body count the lead story, not to make the killer some kind of anti-hero. Do localize the story to the affected community and make it as boring as possible in every other market. Because every time we have intense saturation coverage of a mass murder, we expect to see one or two more within a week.”

    https://www.psychologytoday.com/us/blog/machiavellians-gulling-the-rubes/201805/what-the-texas-school-shooting-suspects-pins-tell-us

  11. Fast Eddie says:

    Juice,

    Social media and the media in general has poisoned our young folks beyond repair. Everywhere you turn it’s destruction and grief and they play it up like the trailer for an upcoming movie. CNN especially is pure, f.ucking evil. They are brainless dogs that need to be beaten.

  12. The Great Pumpkin says:

    30 year,

    Hopefully you didn’t take it the wrong way. Wasn’t meant to be taken in a negative way. Sometimes when I disagree with you, it’s not a sign of disrespect. Obviously, I don’t take majority based positions on the housing market, I tend to go against the grain. I have respect for you, even if I don’t sometimes agree.

    You think we are in the beginnings of the spillover starting to take hold in parts of the nj housing market that have been pretty stagnant? I’m not talking about jersey as a whole, only the communities inside the 287 boundary. I believe we are finally there. Should see strong appreciation in towns like Paramus and Wayne in the coming years.

  13. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Anyone see that article on former bell labs property. Seems like they did a great job with that. Def evidence that nj is not dying, simply was going through a decade or two transition to a new model.

  14. 3b says:

    I was driving through Paramus last evening big rental complex being built on Midland Ave across from Post Office and before the entrance to 17. It’s a horrible location traffic wise. Don’t know how many units on that one but it looks big. Paramus has approved over 600 rental units and construction is starting.

  15. 30 year realtor says:

    Pumpkin,

    North Jersey market is nowhere near though with whatever is wrong with it.

    Paramus is doing just fine and far better than some of it’s neighbors to the north. Top end is still a bit weak but that is a common problem in North Jersey. Wayne is not a similar market to Paramus.

    Trains, good schools and close proximity to NYC with mass transit are driving appreciation in some markets. Southern Bergen County is strong. Towns like East Rutherford, Rutherford, Carlstadt, Moonachie and Lyndhurst are where the action is in Bergen.

    We bought a 1800 GLA, half duplex in East Rutherford. Listed it for $479,900 and have received multiple offers above the asking price in less than 2 weeks on market. A huge price for half a 2 family house in what was never considered to be a highly desirable town.

    Unless you are moving Wayne to another location it is likely to lag behind the more accessible locations in North Jersey that people want.

  16. NJDepartment says:

    “Trains, good schools and close proximity to NYC with mass transit are driving appreciation in some markets. Southern Bergen County is strong. Towns like East Rutherford, Rutherford, Carlstadt, Moonachie and Lyndhurst are where the action is in Bergen.”

    These locations are going nuts for the past 2 years. Have no idea who is buying houses in crappy school district with ratings of 4-5.. I guess the people priced out of Manhattan and JC.

    The same thing happened in 2005-6 and I see the same pattern to repeat when stock market goes down and the feeling rich comes down in 2 years

  17. JCer says:

    30 year your read on the market is good. I’d indicate that 400k-800k in good accessible locations are brisk but starting to show signs of weakness but also a dearth of inventory. Obviously the mold coast is hot but too expensive so younger buyers are looking west, southern bergen is a decent commute and in NY metro a relative value, eastern essex suburbs(Montclair, Maplewood, Glen Ridge, even bloomfield) are still chugging along(a lot of renovation work and what looks like flips being done). The way I see it is if Franklin Lakes is soft(which I still see it as soft, prices still way down from peak), Wayne is not appreciating especially with it’s high tax rate at the high end(800k-1m is a dead market in Wayne). Paramus and Wayne are nto comparable because the property taxes are much better in Paramus.

  18. Fast Eddie says:

    Towns like East Rutherford, Rutherford, Carlstadt, Moonachie and Lyndhurst are where the action is in Bergen.”

    Easy commute, great locations, great access… it makes perfect sense and I can see why these areas are hot. You can add Clifton to that list and I would imagine Fair Lawn and Hawthorne might be hot markets as well.

  19. 3b says:

    Rutherford s schools are not crappy I don’t know about the rest of those towns. If people are having one maybe 2 kids today and later and both work there has to be trade offs.

  20. 3b says:

    Fast I have family in Hawthorne for years. It’s a weird town in that you don’t hear anything about it good or bad. Very old housing stock.

  21. leftwing says:

    “One thing I hate about New Providence is the drivers. Everyone will cut you off for no reason. I actually put a dashboard camera on my car specifically because of drivers in New Providence. I get cut off at least once a day driving through that town.”

    Lol, first accident I had in 20 years was on South St a couple months ago. That stretch is bad, too many entrances/exits for each business. Backs traffic up and makes those trying to turn left out of the exits very impatient. Young kid t-boned me (directly on the rim thankfully) turning left out of an exit…I was in the traffic lane closest to him which was moving. Some dumb ass suburban mother decided to play traffic cop in the far lane, stopped, and waved him out into traffic…he never looked left again, saw it happening but couldn’t stop quickly enough. Town should rationalize all those parking lots…I know each business needs their own spaces for zoning, but combine a few of those entrances/exits. Maybe prohibit left turns.

    As it relates to the commute, seriously, don’t read the published times. Drive to Summit, park the garage lot. Takes 10 min door-to-door in the morning and you shave serious train time and get a ton more schedule flexibility. I know people from Chatham (the next stop after Summit on Morris line) who drive to Summit. They arrive faster than the train easily and have the extra flexibility.

  22. Newbie says:

    Anyone have strong a opinion of South Orange whether positive or negative?

  23. leftwing says:

    Fabs, have owned Cayennes and Fords (Explorer and Expeditions) back in the kid hauling days.

    Cayenne is incredible fun for an SUV, I can’t imagine towing with it though. Did our jet ski a few times, it’s really not made for it. That was 800lbs plus trailer, you’re dloing 5000lb+……

    Loved the Fords. Beasts, and they at the time had just updated the cabins to ‘car/luxury’ from ‘work/utility’. Nice comfort features. High reliability. Would do those again in a heartbeat.

    Latest trend around me is moderately used Range Rovers. Haven’t compared prices with other alternatives but I’ve seen a couple families driving around town and kind of scratched my head because the math didn’t seem to add up. Buddy told me they weren’t new and people are getting 4 year old or so vehicles moderate mileage in the $40ks, that made sense….Might be worth a look. Not knowledgeable enough to know different model types (other than they’re not Evoques or LRs), they may be pretty baseline vehicles I’m seeing….

  24. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Personally, I don’t see Wayne as that far off from Rutherford or Clifton. When they complete the rt 3/46 connection, you should be able to get from some parts of Wayne to Clifton in 10-15 min(I can do it now). For the better school system, and nicer area, it’s a no brainer that these people buying in these areas will turn to totowa and then Fairfield and Wayne. Inevitable in my mind.

    What’s prob happening, is that these people buying in southern Bergen are from the city or immigrants. They are prob young, and just starting a family. As soon as their kids get to school age, they will look to places like Fairfield, Wayne, and Paramus for their safe neighborhoods and good schools (I group Wayne and these towns together because it’s similar price points offering safe neighborhoods and schools). Paramus, Wayne, and Fairfield are also move up towns, you just haven’t seen the market move up yet. They are right now driving up prices in those starter home towns. When a 1800 sq ft half of a multi goes for 480,000, how much longer before they turn to Wayne or Fairfield for a 550,000 offering much more? Not too long, and should be here within 2-3 years, or at most 4 years.

    No doubt in my mind. Just have to study the patterns of the market participants and combine that with human nature. With that, we are still in the initial runup of nj housing market. The markets that have been hot will soon hit a peak, and the towns that now look like a value in comparison will start to see the spillover till everything is overvalued. No where even close to that yet.

  25. The Great Pumpkin says:

    I live on the far end of wayne by Franklin lakes and Oakland, and can make it to my rental in 22 min. 5 min drive through local Clifton rd.

  26. nwnj says:

    Gotta hand it to oblama, enlisting crooked intelligence officials to undermine the democratic process is a level most couldn’t fathom. Taken right from the Stalin playbook. Ayers must be proud of his disciple.

  27. leftwing says:

    Ex, what are you up to today brother?

    Appreciated that HCLP the other day, did a quick in/out.

    Put on some funky trades yesterday and today that are inherently long (I’m not). Looking to balance with something with downside bias.

    Any thoughts on shorts?

    Lib?

  28. Trick says:

    Hawthorne is a big rental town, lived in several different places 15 or so years ago.

  29. 3b says:

    Pumps you are reading into it to suit your narrative for your house in Wayne. You have no idea what they will do and neither do I. But in my mind it does not make sense that if people are starting to have kids in their mid 30s and all the way up into their 50s then it does not stand to reason that they will buy in these so Bergen towns only to turn around in 5 years and do the long commute to Wayne or wherever. Those so Bergen towns offer convenience and train travel which Wayne or Paramus does not regardless of whatever improvements are being made. You state some are immigrants but you don’t know. You assume those towns are not safe but you don’t know. You assume their schools are bad but you don’t know. And if there are immigrants moving to those towns an argument can be made the schools will improve. Bottom line is you can not accept that there may be people moving to these towns with the intention of staying permanently. I am the old guy and I see the dramatic changes over the last couple of decades and recognize that the traditional idealized suburbs of the past may in fact be just that the past. Two incomes today one or two kids older parents, kids in daycare all day then school than after care in many cases. Then home dinner homework,bath shower maybe a little family time then bed. Rinse and repeat 5 days a week. Anything that offers more time.e to these parents will be embraced and that’s what these so Bergen towns offer.
    If the schools are not as good as other towns further north than that may be a price they have to pay.

  30. Juice Box says:

    Newbie – I would refer you to recent news as to the formulation of my opinion which is this. The town is a bunch of rich liberals and if you live there you will get to see first-hand race relations as a performance art in which the residents engage in symbolic exercises of diversity in public settings at taxpayer expense. AKA virtue signaling at taxpayers expense.

  31. Libturd questioning the gender of Hillary's Cankle fluid. says:

    Only short I know is Tesla. Have fun with that one. Was better 25% ago.

    As for South Orange. It’s a lot like Maplewood and shares a school system with them. Way too much traffic downtown for me, and the crime skyrockets towards Seton Hall. Stay west (up on the hill) of Scotland/Valley and it’s fine. Gentrification is running wild there. Moreso than even in Montclair. Better restaurants in Montclair, but government is further left in Montclair. They invented Ultimate Frisbee in South Orange (little known factoid).

  32. Libturd questioning the gender of Hillary's Cankle fluid. says:
  33. The Great Pumpkin says:

    3b,

    Of course, I’m just feeding my narative.

    So you are telling me that a place like Wayne will be ignored because it’s 20 min further away? Wtf? Wayne has trains and buses, and multiple highways. Trust me, it’s only a matter of time before they drive up the real estate in this location. I put my money where my mouth is, I actually own in Wayne. If for a second I thought Wayne would be left behind, or not a good location to settle down and raise my family, I would sell and move to a better location.

    You know grim is smart and knows his stuff. Why did he buy in Wayne? Why? Why did both of my siblings buy in Wayne? They could have chosen anywhere, now why Wayne? Lots of my high school classmates are now moving into Wayne…now why? All a bunch of idiots that missed the call that Wayne is dead.

  34. NJDepartment says:

    3B, maybe what you are saying makes sense… People are willing to sacrifice schools for shorter commute these days..

    Most south Bergen sales are for immigrants or those guys who can’t afford in Manhattan, JC etc.. The schools are different story, Lyndhurst school district is in 3.7M deficit and the state is taking over..

  35. Fast Eddie says:

    Gotta hand it to oblama, enlisting crooked intelligence officials to undermine the democratic process is a level most couldn’t fathom. Taken right from the Stalin playbook. Ayers must be proud of his disciple.

    Amazing, isn’t it? And nothing will come from it. Oblama is a sneaky, underhanded f.uck and had a lot of people duped. He’s on par with the Clintons.

  36. Fast Eddie says:

    Wayne is like North Haledon, impossible to get in and out of with no major highway close by. Parts of Wayne can take you 45 minutes to an hour to get to the 3/46 connection.

  37. NJDepartment says:

    Wayne is too far to be considered commuter town.. I don’t see much appreciation in towns like Wayne where there is too much space. Wayne is a buyer’s market when the rest of metro is hot… tells me, we have long way to go in Wayne.

  38. leftwing says:

    Lib, broke the hard drive coming up with that one huh lol.

  39. NJDepartment says:

    Even-though i think PUMP is smart, he is too invested in Wayne and is day dreaming.
    The appreciation is in those areas with high density homes with no land to spare.. Wayne is too big and too far from Manhattan.

    If the market didn’t pick up from last crash, it will go further down when the economy turns sour next year or so.

  40. Libturd questioning the gender of Hillary's Cankle fluid. says:

    Wayne is a bit of an unusual town in these parts. It reminds me more of towns in Central Jersey, though it’s bordered by Paterson. There aren’t any fancy areas, most of the housing stock is 50s-now and the town has no real center. Driving through it West to East, It’s Willowbrook Mall, a lot of apartments, lots of single family homes a few golf courses and parks with a whole bunch of mini-malls sprinkled throughout. There’s some warehousing, a college and then Paterson. It’s kind of a traditional town among the more urban towns surrounding it. Is is special? Not particularly. Decent schools, lots of little league, a bit of an overabundance of religion and seniors, but not too bad. All in all, a nice place to raise kids. Transit, not so great. A little far from the city as the train and bus adds another 20 minutes past say the park and ride in Clifton or the trains in Montclair (you have to switch from diesel to electric) at the college. Some positives? Cheap shopping in Paterson. Great wings in Haledon. Amazing ice rink. More banks than I’ve ever seen in one town. Negatives? Town is too spread out and there’s really too much traffic on the many yellow lined roads that criss cross the town. Lack of good restaurants too. With all of those mini malls, you would expect one of them to at least have a good Chinese or pizza place in it. I don’t even think they have a Whole Foods or Trader Joes. Like I said earlier. You could take all of Wayne, lift it up and drop it in Somerset or Middlesex County. It really reminds me of South or East Brunswick.

  41. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Say what? Fast, you are way off with this. You are prob just messing with me, so I won’t even question this further.

    Fast Eddie says:
    May 22, 2018 at 12:25 pm
    Wayne is like North Haledon, impossible to get in and out of with no major highway close by. Parts of Wayne can take you 45 minutes to an hour to get to the 3/46 connection.

  42. Libturd questioning the gender of Hillary's Cankle fluid. says:

    Left. Shorting is for masochists.

    Hard to fight against this chart. Same reason gold sucks as an investment. It’s impossible to time the short but abrupt moves that occur once or twice a century.

    https://ei.marketwatch.com/Multimedia/2017/03/23/Photos/NS/MW-FI823_DowCor_20170323160402_NS.png?uuid=dc21ed9a-1003-11e7-9078-001cc448aede

  43. Libturd questioning the gender of Hillary's Cankle fluid. says:

    Eddie’s not far off. Driving into Wayne from the Paterson side, it often takes 30 minutes to get to the Willowbrook if not longer.

  44. Fast Eddie says:

    No, I’m not messing with you or anyone. Driving down Valley Road reminds me of driving down route 9 through Waretown – one way in, one way out and it’s a looooong haul.

  45. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Lib,

    Your post describes perfectly why Wayne is an ideal middle/upper middle class to raise a family. I could have went to ridgewood type towns, but I want to live with down to earth people I have things in common with as opppsed to stuck up people judging my every move. No thanks.

    I’m going to be called racist for this one, but Wayne is probably the whitest town in north jersey. Other towns have huge Asian populations, but Wayne is still close to 9 out of 10 people being down to earth white families raising their kids in a positive way. Now why is that? Wayne will become more and more attractive to the middle class moving on up in the world.

  46. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Lib/fast Eddie,

    I’ll let grim tell you that you are off with your travel times. You won’t believe me if I tell you otherwise, so listen to grim.

    There is almost no traffic whatsoever in Wayne local roads.

  47. Fast Eddie says:

    Wayne has a train? That’s like saying Franklin Lakes has a train. Try getting to it during the morning madness.

  48. Libturd questioning the gender of Hillary's Cankle fluid. says:

    I don’t even know where to begin there. For a few months, I lived in little India Wayne. This was down in the apartments built in the flood zone just East of 23 by the 46/3/80 junction. I was in the minority there. But regardless of your racism, the reason real estate isn’t flying up there is because hipsters don’t want land. They want walkable places. Wayne is NOT that at all. The transit options are pretty sh1tty. If anything, I see Wayne’s popularity moving in lockstep with say, Little Falls or Cedar Grove. Only it’s further from the city transit-wise.

  49. Fast Eddie says:

    I don’t have to listen to Grim… I’ve traveled through Wayne longer than you’ve been alive.

  50. The Great Pumpkin says:

    There are a million ways out of Wayne. You can use 202, 23, 80, 46, 287, and 208.

    Fast Eddie says:
    May 22, 2018 at 12:56 pm
    No, I’m not messing with you or anyone. Driving down Valley Road reminds me of driving down route 9 through Waretown – one way in, one way out and it’s a looooong haul.

  51. Libturd questioning the gender of Hillary's Cankle fluid. says:

    No traffic. Just a sh1tload of unnecessary traffic lights. Right? Valley Road is so dangerous, they should reduce it to one lane and put in a cement median. Way to narrow for 4 lanes and a 40 mph speed limit. Plus it’s all residential!

  52. chicagofinance says:

    30 year: I have a client who runs a small real estate focused hedge fund….. do you have a proprietary set of clients/contacts/contracts, or can you be referred to outside parties?

    30 year realtor says:
    May 22, 2018 at 8:39 am
    Pumpkin,
    I am not a real estate salesperson! I am an analyst. All I do is analyze properties scheduled for sheriff sales. I provide as is and repaired values with renovation budgets. I spend endless hours sifting through data. I do not show houses and I do not solicit for listings. My compensation is a percentage of my client’s profit from the investments I recommend and the listing commissions from these properties. We purchase about 25 properties per year in North Jersey and the average sale price is about $600,000.

    On the other hand you are correct that the average real estate salesperson knows little about real estate.

  53. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Thanks for not being obnoxious and putting me down for taking a different approach.

    I believe in my analysis. I have lived in north jersey my entire life and know the area well. I will stand by my call. I think you will see strong appreciation in Fairfield and Wayne within 5 years.

    Go look at high the prices were in Wayne, Paramus, and Fairfield during the last run up in houses. When the next run up happens, and it will, you think this time is different? Not at all.

    NJDepartment says:
    May 22, 2018 at 12:46 pm
    Even-though i think PUMP is smart, he is too invested in Wayne and is day dreaming.
    The appreciation is in those areas with high density homes with no land to spare.. Wayne is too big and too far from Manhattan.

    If the market didn’t pick up from last crash, it will go further down when the economy turns sour next year or so.

  54. leftwing says:

    Lib, not going to fight long term the bull, looking really for a shorter term downside hedge of best short idea rather than just pissing away blindly on SPY puts.

    The chart by being log does graphically understate downdrafts, eg ’87, that was a 30%+ drop….took three years to get back…..

  55. The Great Pumpkin says:

    And when they have families, their idiotic thinking will change. Why would you want to have no yard and live on top of your neighbors as you age and raise a family? The hour commute to the city is sometimes a good thing when raising a family, it’s forced time to collect your thoughts and rest your mind. If you live within walking distance to work, your time will be overtaken by entertaining your child. Sometimes you need a break from that.

    “But regardless of your racism, the reason real estate isn’t flying up there is because hipsters don’t want land. They want walkable places. Wayne is NOT that at all. The transit options are pretty sh1tty. If anything, I see Wayne’s popularity moving in lockstep with say, Little Falls or Cedar Grove. Only it’s further from the city transit-wise.”

  56. Fast Eddie says:

    You can hit the train on route 23 faster from parts of West M1lford than parts of Wayne.

  57. Juice Box says:

    Wayne and the surrounding area is where the whole Real Housewives of NJ started. I say take no chances nuke the entire site from orbit!

  58. Hold my beer says:

    Pumps,

    Kids rarely play outdoors on their own anymore. They mostly play on electronic devices. If they do play outside it is some sort of soccer or baseball league.

    Also a yard means after spending 10-15 hours a week commuting you have to spend another hour a week minimum taking care of your yard or $150 a month or more hiring a landscaper.

  59. Yo! says:

    Hoboken Commercial Condo Trades Near $7M In 1031 Exchange

    MAY 18, 2018 | BY STEVE LUBETKIN
    HOBOKEN, NJ—A 14,000-square-foot commercial condominium at 222 Washington Street in Hoboken, NJ, traded for $6.565 million in an all-cash Section 1031 exchange brokered by The Kislak Company.

    Kislak marketed the portfolio on an exclusive basis. Senior vice president Scott Davidovicrepresented the seller and procured the purchaser, a longtime client with significant holdings in Hoboken and elsewhere in Hudson County.

    “The seller was the original developer of the property and felt the sale came at the right time due to the relatively low interest rate environment and strong demand for investment properties in Hoboken,” says Davidovic. “The property offered upside in the office rents and potential with the retail space.”

    The premier commercial condominium consists of approximately 7,500-square feet of storefront retail space with frontage on Washington Street and another 6,500-square-feet of fully occupied office space on the lower level. Baby Gap occupies approximately 60 percent of the retail space.

    Washington Street is the principal commercial and retail thoroughfare in Hoboken. The property is four blocks from the Hoboken Terminal, one of the New York metropolitan area’s major transportation hubs. The location is surrounded by many national and local retailers including Chipotle, CVS, McDonalds, Starbucks and Walgreens.

  60. NYDECAN says:

    Pumpkin seems to be a smart guy who called it right about house appreciation but looks like he is wrong on his home town Wayne..

    With US population at slow rate, NJ being super high tax state, No property tax deduction starting this year, most tech jobs automated or going abroad, banking is doing OK not great, high-skilled immigrants not much places like Wayne won’t hold value.

    It just takes 1 year of stock market crash to hit the housing demand and places like Wayne are the ones that will go down first.

  61. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Hold,

    Maybe I’m getting old and out of touch. Guess these people want a VR world instead of a real one. Also, how lazy are they that they can’t take care of the yard and cut the grass?

    For me, a yard is a piece of art. Take a blank canvas and create something beautiful. Guess people want a concrete jungle where the only beauty that can be found is in the architecture of the building.

  62. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Maybe I am totally wrong on this. If so, where would you sell and move to? I don’t want to be stuck with losing real estate. So maybe I’m wrong and should listen.

    NYDECAN says:
    May 22, 2018 at 2:06 pm
    Pumpkin seems to be a smart guy who called it right about house appreciation but looks like he is wrong on his home town Wayne..

  63. The Original NJ ExPat says:

    Ignorance of the laws of physics. Take it from an engineer with a very checkered driving past, but also an SCCA National Racing License. BTW, if you can see the edge of your car in either of your side mirrors – you’re doing it wrong. You should have them set wide enough that all three mirrors form a continual panorama, not a constrained and overlapping narrow view. From the fourth lane over (the exit ramp), that old doofus never saw the dump truck in his LH mirror because it was set too close, and there is no way you can see three lanes over anyway.

    I’ve always said whatever survival instincts that humans have, for some reason, go out the window when they miss an exit on a highway.

  64. Fast Eddie says:

    Hoboken needs more eateries because there’s not enough (raises gun to head, prepares to pull trigger).

  65. The Original NJ ExPat says:

    Your best post ever, Pumps.

    The Great Pumpkin says:
    May 22, 2018 at 2:12 pm
    Maybe I am totally wrong on this.

  66. JCer says:

    South Orange and Maplewood are interchangeable(the original name of Maplewood was South Orange Township, real estate developers at the beginning of the 20th century split off South Orange Village at which point the name changed to Maplewood again as a result of real estate developers). Both towns have areas close to Newark/Irvington that while seem nice have some crime, municipal services while not extensive seem to be fairly well run(police, public works, etc are very responsive storm cleanup seemed to happen much more quickly in Maplewood and South Orange than in west Orange). The housing stock is nice especially up slope, NJT direct train is as you’d expect and the driving commute to JC or Newark isn’t too bad. Schools at the elementary level are good from what we have heard, The demographics shift in high School and Middle School and respectively the test scores go down. All in all the real estate market is hot in these towns and a lot of rehabbing is going on and as Stu indicated there is gentrification downtown.

    In South Orange as Stu rightly pointed out the Ethiopian restaurants, there are two of them are both really good. There is a pretty good Italian place Boccone, some other decent places but some restaurants that are just bad. Maplewood downtown is like a mile from SO and has some good restaurants(Best Pizza in the tri-state Arturo’s) and Millburn is also super close and there are some good places there as well. Biggest drawback is the obscene taxes that seem to have a likelihood of getting worse.

  67. Hold my beer says:

    I like to run over fire ant mounds with my lawn mower. I have a few seconds to clear the area before thousands of angry ants swarm out of their destroyed mound.

    I have to wear jeans and long sleeve shirts when I weed the flower bed. Those big harvester ants have a nasty bite.

  68. The Original NJ ExPat says:

    But Pumps has great highway access….right at the end of his driveway.

    Unless you are moving Wayne to another location it is likely to lag behind the more accessible locations in North Jersey that people want.

  69. NYDECAN says:

    “Maybe I am totally wrong on this. If so, where would you sell and move to? I don’t want to be stuck with losing real estate. So maybe I’m wrong and should listen”

    Pumpkin, I know you were sarcastic..

    I think you will do fine in Wayne.. Just wont see the rate of appreciation that you see in NY metro/South Bergen..

    Just tell me the reasons you think Wayne will appreciate like NY metro.. Bay arean went ballistic but not all CA.. And those metros fall first dragging the far away places down with them…

    My logic was basically, what has changed so drastically in the past 10 years in US with so much land. that would make house prices appreciate crazy in suburbs.. The prices have been same everywhere in NJ which are not close to Manhattan. Except places where school district is one of the best..

    US is not like India or China with billions of people,where the the basic economy itself is rapidly changing….

  70. Libturd questioning the gender of Hillary's Cankle fluid. says:

    I thought his driveway WAS an exit ramp?

  71. Juice Box says:

    re: 2:02 pm “The premier commercial condominium”

    That old spot for the Quik Check at 222 Washington Street? If memory serves me, then it was Washington Mutual bank, then after the bubble and their economic disaster, Chase came in for a while then quickly shut this location down.

    The past few years it was a pop up store or something – Ricky’s Halloween?

  72. The Original NJ ExPat says:

    10 years ago I thought peak oil would be what pushes the affluent closer to the city with access to public transportation. Fracking kind of pushed that off to the future. Nonetheless, the more urban, more public transportation accessible areas are still surging, but for a new reason. The younger generation wants peak glass touching. You can’t mow a lawn and be touching glass. You can easily miss text messages while driving. You don’t need a great big TV room to touch and stare at glass 9 inches a way. You probably don’t even care what it looks like out the window, or if you have a window for that matter.

  73. 3b says:

    Pumps yes 2o minutes and it’s probably more like 30 plus I in the morning and evening means a lot for two working parents with one or 2 kids in daycare. Or after care and all the rest I mentioned. I feel bad that this is what so many of these parents with young kids have to do. As for Grim I can’t speak for why he bought in Wayne save to say it works for him. And he may not be as dependent on Nyc commute as many are. I also suspect he could up and move tomorrow to wherever he wants if he chooses. As for backyards ain’t no kids in backyards today they are in daycare.

  74. The Original NJ ExPat says:

    It is! That’s why it has a blacktop turn around area. You wouldn’t dare back out of that driveway. It’s be like driving a school bus across four lanes of traffic to do an illegal U-turn.

    I thought his driveway WAS an exit ramp?

  75. Libturd questioning the gender of Hillary's Cankle fluid. says:

    ExPat. You are ON to something there. I do almost all my glass touching, right before bed. When I left CHOP, I was a solid 30 boards ahead of Gator on Candy Crush. Now, she is nowhere in site. I kind of miss my surfing time.

  76. Libturd questioning the gender of Hillary's Cankle fluid. says:

    My kid uses the backyard. He has to take 10,000 slap shots by the start of next season!

  77. Juice Box says:

    Come to think of it I don’t think the Real Housewives of NJ ever filmed in Wayne even though they were from there and the surrounding towns. Kind of a slap on the face for Wayne no?

  78. Fast Eddie says:

    You probably don’t even care what it looks like out the window, or if you have a window for that matter.

    Weather? What is weather?

  79. The Original NJ ExPat says:

    I just thought of another motivating factor for that bus driver’s behavior. He just drove a bus full of fifth graders from Paramus to Route 206, and missed his 206 exit twice. That’s a pretty long trip as yellow bus field trips go. I know, because I used to drive school buses while I was still in college. Sure, Bergen County schools went to NYC on field trips, Turtle Back Zoo too, but Paramus to way out West is pretty far when it comes to field trips or sporting events aboard a yellow bus.

    He needed to smoke a cigarette.

  80. JCer says:

    3b, I get the daycare comment but I did the move from city to suburb recently and my little kid does like the outside in the grass despite being in daycare all day. My sister has 2 kids who also like to go outside, and yes all the kids are addicted to glass time but as parents we need to limit it, they are becoming like little zombies it’s actually kind of freaky. But yeah to Stu’s point outside time is largely driven by a desire to play sports my kid likes to kick a soccer ball around and play catch and my nephews like to play baseball and football, also the swing set in the yard is a kid favorite. So while nintendo switch and ipads are favorites, kids still like to play outside.

  81. The Great Pumpkin says:

    I know it came off as sarcastic, but was being honest with you. You don’t belittle me, so wouldn’t do it to you. I’ll give you response to your question in the post as soon as I get time.

    NYDECAN says:
    May 22, 2018 at 2:25 pm
    “Maybe I am totally wrong on this. If so, where would you sell and move to? I don’t want to be stuck with losing real estate. So maybe I’m wrong and should listen”

    Pumpkin, I know you were sarcastic..

  82. Libturd questioning the gender of Hillary's Cankle fluid. says:

    It’s all our transition into robots. It’s starts with touching glass. Pretty soon, the glass will be touching us. Vape anyone?

  83. 3b says:

    Jc I understand and agree. My comment was in relation to pumps comment about backyards you don’t need a half acre or more to have a back yard. So Bergen towns have back yards they might not be big but they have them.

  84. JCer says:

    ExPat, it isn’t peak oil, it isn’t screen time, it’s time in general. Nobody(Millennials) wants the commute and it’s not just about work it’s the commute to go shopping or for dining, etc. Look at places with good housing markets in NJ 1.close to the city, 2.trains, 3. Walk-able downtown’s. People want access to “The City”(for work and entertainment) and also are looking for conveniences and as Bad as NJTransit is you can get your screen time while waiting for a train delay vs. listening to mind numbing radio in traffic while you drive.

  85. JCer says:

    I know a few people who made the move to So Bergen, they came from the boroughs, you can trade a crummy apartment in Queens for that 2 family 30 year was talking about and pick up enough income to cover property taxes, maintenance, minor renovations and a vacation each year. That’s what drives it, The people I knew also shortened their commutes to boot.

  86. Frostfan1 says:

    wow. haven’t been to this site in ages and the whole day is about Wayne. So, as another Wayne homeowner, here’s my two cents. Yes, it’s a commuter town. The number of buses going down Valley and the NJ Transit Center tell you that. But compared to so many other places, it’s a hike and the morning commutes if you catch a 730am bus or later just suck these days. As for price appreciation in Wayne, hells no. The town is losing the ToysRUs ratable and who’s making that up. My wife wanted to move to some neighborhoods off Ratzer and I showed zero interest. Seriously, trade up to a bigger house where I lose another 15 minutes of my life every day with a longer commute? And she of course, didn’t think that those houses have $18-21k in property taxes? Come on, you buy a house like that now, you might as well consider yourself the last buyer. What families are having 3 kids to justify that size? You want me to pay an extra 7k a year in property taxes so the kids have a yard? Come on!!!!!!

  87. NYDECAN says:

    Pumpkin,
    I want to get you logic because I’m one of those guys who made a call before 2006 crash and still renting. Renting too long and I kinda feel, waited too long to get into a house in NyMetro. Mostly South Bergen..

    On the positive side, I did take that $$ and invested in a RE abroad which went nuts.. We are talking about 5-6X in 10 years..

    Now I debating about getting into this hot market or wait to see the affects of possible bubble and NJ tax issues.. Why would the RE not go down in these hot areas in the next 2 years. What will keep it driving ??

    “””The Great Pumpkin says:
    May 22, 2018 at 2:43 pm
    I know it came off as sarcastic, but was being honest with you. You don’t belittle me, so wouldn’t do it to you. I’ll give you response to your question in the post as soon as I get time.””””

  88. JCer says:

    Biggest issue with Wayne is near Essex County property taxes, without the commuting convenience, charming architecture and downtown of a place like Montclair. People to some extent will take the property tax beating for those reasons but Wayne needs to trade at a discount because of property taxes. Wayne has no advantages over Franklin Lakes, Wyckoff, or Paramus and all 3 have lower property taxes.

  89. Techie says:

    JCer whatz you take on Rutherford ??

  90. Techie says:

    I might bite late this year, wondering if these prices keep going up making it unaffordable

  91. 3b says:

    Jcer I agree. I think young people today if they are buying should definitely do the 2 family route. That extra income is a cushion and once the house is paid for you have rental income coming in.

  92. The Original NJ ExPat says:

    Our daughters have watched absolutely nothing on TV for about a year now. If they have access to our big (smart) TV they watch Netflix or Youtube. No interest in live programming, no interest in DVR recordings.

  93. The Original NJ ExPat says:

    My oldest daughter has watched every episode of The Office I can’t even tell you how many times…and she isn’t done yet.

  94. Juice Box says:

    Speaking of streaming, Karate Kid reboot (Cobra Kai) from Johnny Lawrence’s perspective was an enjoyable watch.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_rB36UGoP4Y&list=PLxm–8AYWEDelTYpYi2zulMEw-0T-M5IH

  95. Juice Box says:

    If you decide to Watch the Cobra Kai series on youtube first watch this fan made
    short first.

    The Karate Kid: Daniel is the REAL Bully [J. Matthew Movies, Ep 3]

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=C_Gz_iTuRMM

  96. The Original NJ ExPat says:

    I can picture Pumps going into a seizure after reading this:

    My wife wanted to move to some neighborhoods off Ratzer and I showed zero interest. Seriously, trade up to a bigger house where I lose another 15 minutes of my life every day with a longer commute? And she of course, didn’t think that those houses have $18-21k in property taxes? Come on, you buy a house like that now, you might as well consider yourself the last buyer. What families are having 3 kids to justify that size?

  97. JCer says:

    Rutherford could be a good bet, I can see some gentrification happening. There is a downtown and train so there certainly opportunity for values to go up and a bit of a demographic shift. Biggest issue is what you can buy, what is the available housing stock and what does it cost, can you find a good property(few and far between in rutherford, too many old people) at a fair price(notice I’m not even talking about at a good price).

    Even when you look at Wayne if you are buying the right property at the right price there may be opportunity to make some money but you need to understand the market. Wayne at 500k and below is much better market than Wayne at 900k-1m, if you buy the right property and make the right improvements there certainly is room to profit anywhere in NNJ. The problem is in some markets you need to be smart and in others you can buy pretty much any old thing and make some money.

  98. 1987 Condo says:

    Wayne has a higher “effective tax rate ” than 10 Essex county towns:

    North Caldwell
    West Caldwell
    Caldwell
    Cedar Grove
    Verona
    Essex Fells
    Millburn
    Roseland
    Fairfield
    Livingston

  99. Hold my beer says:

    Pumps has a round about in his front yard?

  100. Hold my beer says:

    100th

  101. grim says:

    YOU NEVER BUY A LAND ROVER, YOU LEASE LAND ROVERS. END OF STORY.

    Caps are intentional.

  102. Yo! says:

    Toll Bros. CEO said on conference call, “seeing very strong sales in Jesrsey City.”

  103. grim says:

    My wife wanted to move to some neighborhoods off Ratzer and I showed zero interest. Seriously, trade up to a bigger house where I lose another 15 minutes of my life every day with a longer commute?

    People move up to Wayne, they don’t move up in Wayne. I pointed this out the other day. There is no in-town move up market. Generally you will see move out or renovation, but not move up.

  104. grim says:

    Which is why the $750+ range will struggle.

  105. grim says:

    This applies to many many many markets in NJ right now.

  106. grim says:

    . Yes, it’s a commuter town. The number of buses going down Valley and the NJ Transit Center tell you that. But compared to so many other places, it’s a hike and the morning commutes if you catch a 730am bus or later just suck these days.

    It’s impossible to find a daily parking spot now. 3-4 years ago it was cake, I could pull in at any time and get a great spot.

    Now, I worry about getting a spot at all. Even the monthly spots (which open up to daily parking at 10:00am), are now completely full.

    It’s worth highlighting, this is a stark difference.

  107. grim says:

    Twice I ended up just driving to Hoboken and taking the path after not being able to get a spot around 10am.

  108. tailgate says:

    Grim, a 2-3 year old range rover can be had for 35 – 40% less..
    For example I bough a 2015 RRS with most features for 53K last year. original paid price was 84K. With 30K miles on it.

    A new MDX costs 60K these days

  109. grim says:

    Also keep in mind, $400-500k is always the hot ticket, everywhere. It’s the sweet spot for average salaries across most of NJ. Given the little wage movement in the past 10 years, it’s no surprise that the $400-500k range hasn’t moved all the much either.

  110. grim says:

    Grim, a 2-3 year old range rover can be had for 35 – 40% less..

    Due to the fact that if anything, no matter how seemingly insignificant breaks, it’s a $5,000 repair.

  111. Fast Eddie says:

    It’s impossible to find a daily parking spot now. 3-4 years ago it was cake, I could pull in at any time and get a great spot.

    Why?

  112. Libturd questioning the gender of Hillary's Cankle fluid. says:

    The trains suck so the buses are the only REAL option.

  113. 30 year realtor says:

    I have strong relationships with 2 very reliable clients with very deep pockets. They run the transactions. They keep the books, manage the renovations and deal with the associated legal issues. I am a free agent with nothing tying me to anyone specific. I can be referred but do not come here seeking business.

    According to ex-pat he knows my name and number. Perhaps he will share it with you.

    chicagofinance says:
    May 22, 2018 at 1:11 pm
    30 year: I have a client who runs a small real estate focused hedge fund….. do you have a proprietary set of clients/contacts/contracts, or can you be referred to outside parties?

  114. JCer says:

    Grim I have one an 07 RRS with over 100k miles on it, the repair thing is overstated. If you have a good mechanic who will let you bring the parts(my guy charges an extra $15 an hour for bringing my own parts), you can buy parts directly from a distributor in the UK, even with air freight the parts are so cheap over there, repairs are probably only 15% more expensive than a ford. I’ve done 1 dealer repair in 11 years and it was the E-Parking Brake because no independent mechanic would touch it. The car owes me nothing. Even when you lease you are on the hook for super expensive maintenance, tires and brakes are no joke on these cars, the car just eats them. I recently did front upper and lower control arms, inner and outer tie rods, front wheel bearings and sway bar links, I think parts and labor I was around $1500 it was slightly more than the dealer wanted to replace one wheel bearing. Parts from the UK, Delphi for all the suspension bits they make the originals for LR and the parts are identical, the wheel bearings came in an LR box, “stamped made in USA”. In general things don’t go bad on a Range Rover until they are out of the 5 year warranty.

  115. 30 year realtor says:

    Wayne is geographically impaired. Franklin Lakes is better located, has better schools and is having a fire sale. The high end of Wayne has become Franklin Lakes.

    Certain towns are great values if you send your kids to private school. Hawthorne is one of those towns if you are up the hill toward the Wyckoff border. Same location, same upscale suburban feel and 30% cheaper

  116. The Original NJ ExPat says:

    Nah, just a rectangular pull-off where I guess you could park two cars and not block the garages. I suspect it is largely used to turn around your car so that you can increase the chances of keeping your life when entering the highway. 20 years from now it will be a rooming house with the whole front lawn paved over as parking.

    Pumps has a round about in his front yard?

  117. The Original NJ ExPat says:

    Unpaid marketing is not my gig.

    According to ex-pat he knows my name and number. Perhaps he will share it with you.

  118. The Original NJ ExPat says:

    Whenever I move to a new area I stress out about at least 3 or 4 services:
    1. Finding a new Dentist (good doctors are a dime a dozen).
    2. Finding a new independent Mechanic.
    3. Finding a new “Mom & Pop” Hardware store.
    4. Finding a new and discreet Nanny and a place to interview her every now and then.

    Grim I have one an 07 RRS with over 100k miles on it, the repair thing is overstated. If you have a good mechanic who will let you bring the parts(my guy charges an extra $15 an hour for bringing my own parts), you can buy parts directly from a distributor in the UK, even with air freight the parts are so cheap over there, repairs are probably only 15% more expensive than a ford.

  119. The Great Pumpkin says:

    I don’t see anything crashing in two years or less. There might be a slight recession which stagnates real estate for a year or less, but I don’t see any significant down turn and here is why.

    Based on my analysis of demographic spending patterns and cyclical patterns, 2020 is when the party really starts to press on the gas. I expect an epic economic run that will be the best of our lifetime. This epic run will be fueled by the housing buying patterns of two of the largest demographic groups in our economy, with the millennials being the biggest demographic group to hit the housing market since the boomers (go analyze the boomers buying patterns at different stages of life and see the correlation to the economy and housing prices). There is a direct correlation.

    If you understand the chain reaction that comes with home purchases on the economy, you will understand why these housing purchases will drive the economy to epic proportions. The velocity of money will be insane. So combine a thriving housing market being fueled by millennials and baby boomers (as they switch to retirement) and you have an enormous boom coming that will carry over into every segment of our economy. It’s seriously going to be insane.

    In terms of cyclical patterns in the business cycle, understand that the 2008 crash had a major impact on these cycles. That’s why all these idiots keep waiting for the stock market to crash, and the bull knocks them over. They don’t understand how this 2008 crash changed things for the decade that followed. You have to look to the fed reserve to understand. Specifically, you need to understand the impact of quantitative easing on the economy. That’s why this bull run never stopped, why would it? People are obsessed with the “length” of the run, instead of the fundamentals at play. Have we had runway uncontrolled growth over the past decade? Hell no. It’s as mild and controlled as they come. So I don’t even count on seeing a recession before the next run up. What has been overproduced in the economy over the last ten years? There has been almost zero speculation by businesses into expansion of business with investment. Everything including labor has been totally controlled as everyone and their mother is scared of a repeat of 2008.

    This mindset will change, and the risk takers will return because human nature is greedy. Past 10 years, greed has not been prevalent, it has all been about minimum risk. Look at the buybacks driving the stock market. Perfect example of what I’m talking about. Instead of taking a risk and trying to invest in expansion of business, they are happy with current profit and instead take that money and use it on buybacks.

    All of this will change in 2020’s. Mark this post. Prices of real estate today will look stupid cheap 10 years from now as inflation makes a huge comeback in this coming boom period. Everything will cost significantly more as the boom period sets the stage for the bust.

    If I’m wrong, it’s because of the fed. It will mean that they have finally mastered total control of the economy. This means the end of huge boom and bust cycle. I don’t think they are there yet, but this is the wildcard.

    NYDECAN says:
    May 22, 2018 at 2:54 pm
    Pumpkin,
    I want to get you logic because I’m one of those guys who made a call before 2006 crash and still renting. Renting too long and I kinda feel, waited too long to get into a house in NyMetro. Mostly South Bergen..

    On the positive side, I did take that $$ and invested in a RE abroad which went nuts.. We are talking about 5-6X in 10 years..

    Now I debating about getting into this hot market or wait to see the affects of possible bubble and NJ tax issues.. Why would the RE not go down in these hot areas in the next 2 years. What will keep it driving ??

  120. 3b says:

    Pumps There were some excellent comments and thoughts and observations here today as well as analysis and you still are blinded by your house in Wayne.

  121. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Man, if I had the money I would be buying in Franklin Lakes right now. Buy when there is blood in the streets!

    Million plus market has a limited number of buyers. So it’s a dangerous market to participate in. As the economy tanked in 2008, it destroyed this market in nj. It’s been a slow road, but this part of the market has been slowly healing over the past 5 years. The first places to see all the runup were the places closest to nyc and with the easiest commute. So the market participants drove up the prices in these locations significantly. So what happens next? It hits a peak because people start to look for the next great value. What these means, they start to spillover into a location a little further, but much cheaper. Then they drive that market up. Now they move further. Eventually, Franklin Lakes will become highly desirable again, it’s only a matter of time. They will look at it as a great value and drive it up.

    Nyc peaked two years ago. Jc and Hoboken should follow soon enough. Should see significant spillover. The spillover will eventually spread to a point where it makes the “peak” areas become a value again, and if the economy is as good as I predict, you will nyc start to fly up to new highs. Then put this entire process to work again, but only difference, it will be really really fast appreciation, unlike the snail process we experienced in the past decade.

    We will see what happens, but this is my two cents.

    30 year realtor says:
    May 22, 2018 at 4:32 pm
    Wayne is geographically impaired. Franklin Lakes is better located, has better schools and is having a fire sale. The high end of Wayne has become Franklin Lakes.

  122. chicagofinance says:

    Yo! says:
    May 22, 2018 at 3:49 pm
    Toll Bros. CEO said on conference call, “seeing very strong sales in Jesrsey City.”

    Yo!
    Here is video webinar of the recent conference call for additional insights….
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ekArQQnDImc

  123. Yo! says:

    What is interesting about the crowded commuter parking lots is NJ Transit ridership is falling while Uber and Lyft are proliferating. The suburban lots should raise their pricing. According to the NJ Transit website, Wayne Transit Center parking is $2 per day or $25 per month. That is absurdly low and should be raised fivefold to maximize revenue and leave spaces open through the day. Then Grim could find a space in Wayne rather than drive to Hoboken, where parking is priced closer to market.

  124. chicagofinance says:

    Peak cycle?

    grim says:
    May 22, 2018 at 3:56 pm
    It’s impossible to find a daily parking spot now. 3-4 years ago it was cake, I could pull in at any time and get a great spot.

    Now, I worry about getting a spot at all. Even the monthly spots (which open up to daily parking at 10:00am), are now completely full.

    It’s worth highlighting, this is a stark difference.

  125. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Wayne has done a hell of a job keeping taxes down. Toys r us leaving might cause short term pain, but it will be replaced. Wayne had a huge run up in taxes from 2000-2010, but that has changed. When I was looking at houses, Wayne was significantly more. Now the other towns have all caught up in the past 7 years.

    When I bought at the end of 2011, my taxes were 15,700. Now they are 18,000. That’s pretty damn good in terms of growth, imo.

  126. Hold my beer says:

    Pumps

    Isn’t that from christie’s Property tax cap?

  127. PumpkinFace says:

    If you understand the chain reaction that comes with home purchases on the economy, you will understand why these housing purchases will drive the economy to epic proportions. The velocity of money will be insane. So combine a thriving housing market being fueled by millennials and baby boomers (as they switch to retirement) and you have an enormous boom coming that will carry over into every segment of our economy. It’s seriously going to be insane.

    The punch lines like this added onto the end of most posts are why you’ve 100% convinced me.

  128. grim says:

    I’ve gone home and taken a Lyft back to the park and ride.

  129. The Original NJ ExPat says:

    When I lived in Long Island my stop was Greenlawn. Greenlawn kind of sucked because it was one stop past electric service in Huntington, you needed a diesel to go from Greenlawn and further West on the LIRR. If I worked late there was always a bevy of taxis at Huntington to take guys like me 2 miles further to our cars in Greenlawn rather than waiting an hour for the next diesel train coming through Huntington.

    I’ve gone home and taken a Lyft back to the park and ride.

  130. Yo! says:

    Grim, do you believe the Wayne parking operators should raise prices to maximize revenue and leave open spaces for all motorists willing to pay market prices for parking spots?

  131. The Original NJ ExPat says:

    Poor Pumps. Lives with his one baby daughter in a too big house on an undesirable super-highway in Wayne. Bagholder.

  132. The Original NJ ExPat says:

    On the plus side, I could get to Greenlawn in about 45 seconds on my way into NYC. I think I caught my train sometimes less than a minute after starting my car at our home on Centerport Ave. Of course, I had to switch somewhere along the way to get off the diesel service and on to electric, usually Jamaica, Queens.

  133. The Original NJ ExPat says:
  134. Fabius Maximus says:

    nwnj

    enlists a life long republican, who worked under Nixon, Ford, Reagan, Bush to undermine the democratic process.

    Your funny. Keep up the talking points!

  135. Fabius Maximus says:

    Makes sense to me.

    @jonfranks
    No one was spying on President Trump. The FBI was absolutely running a counterintelligence op against aggressive foreign agents trying to take advantage of the fact the Trump team was utterly incompetent.

  136. Walking Bye says:

    The question I would be asking regarding South Bergen. How many young single commuters from out of state want to stay in NJ to raise a family ? Working for a FAANG right now I can tell you the goal of many is to shine for a few years here and return back to their home state or get a promotion to Corp out on the West coast. So many rent out in crappy parts as they have no desire to indulge in anything West of the Passaic and north of 46. As hard as it is to understand, it is really a punishment to them to have anything to do with NJ.

  137. Fabius Maximus says:

    But her email server. The funniest piece I read today was the guy who said if the NK summit falls through, Kim will post the phone calls.

    https://www.politico.com/story/2018/05/21/trump-phone-security-risk-hackers-601903

  138. NJdepartment. says:

    If Pump got into the RE market in Wayne in 2011 and had some reasonable explanation, I think he might be right in his prediction for the next 5 years…

    Pump, what made you get into to Wayne in 2011 ??. Did you own a house before or you moved??

  139. leftwing says:

    Re: foreign cars and indy mechanics….key.

    Had the same guy for my convertibles for 10+ years. Three makes. He’s edging out, referred me to someone taking over his book. Had a major electrical fcuk up going on, was sure it was going to be several thousands at least, guy isolates it to the seat console controller. Replaces that OEM at $350 parts plus $100 labor, tweaks a soft coolant pump and belts/pulleys with $700 all-in new, and few hundred for flush, oil, and getting back on the road (after three years off).

    Bottom line, under $1500 for everything, head to toe. Dealer would have hit me for that just to get it back on road, no repairs.

    And, Ex, agree with you on the dentists. Found a guy in 1988 (no kidding) off Lexington. Still with him. I roundtrip a drive into the city to use him. He’s there only two days now, does the rest out of greenwich where he lives. Was joking with him that I may drive to Greenwich if he ever consolidates there. The real killer is that his UES practice charges me less for crowns, etc than my ex-wife’s local yocal working out of a home office from his ranch in our blue ribbon town.

  140. Fabius Maximus says:

    So the bills are starting to come in for my kids trip to Boston Childrens Hospital and the phone calls are starting. I have New York Insurance and NY has the No Surprise Law.
    BCH is an in-network hospital for me, so I thought I was ok with Out of Network Providers as my kid was admitted through ER.

    Wrong. Apparently No Surprise does not apply outside of NY state. So I had two Attending who where out of network. The one in the ER gets covered, the one for the overnight stay doesn’t. So I get a $1000 bill.

    So it will be back onto the phone to see what this attending will take. Otherwise I’ll drag this out through collections and cut a deal with them.

    https://commonwealthmagazine.org/health-care/out-of-network-billing-surprises/

  141. leftwing says:

    I have thought about this and may seriously do it…..

    Get a medical bracelet that states something like “unless you are part of the wearer’s Provider network or accept their rates as full payment you are specifically not authorized to provide medical services to the wearer and are hereby instructed to cease treatment”

    They’re going to treat you anyway. I’d love to take that one to Court.

    It really burns me that excess services to the indigent are written off meanwhile middle class families go bankrupt in a good faith effort to pay bills, at a marked up rack rate….

  142. Fabius Maximus says:

    True Greatness Gary!

    https://www.cbsnews.com/news/harley-davidson-cut-jobs-repurchased-shares-after-tax-cut/
    House Speaker Paul Ryan, R-Wis., in September used a Harley-Davidson plant in Menomonee Falls, Wisconsin, as a backdrop for touting the GOP tax measure signed by President Donald Trump late last year, Vox relayed. And Mr. Trump met with Harley-Davidson executives and union representatives at the White House in February, saying the company’s business would only get better.

    Four months after Ryan’s appearance at the Harley-Davidson factory in his home state, 800 workers in Kansas City, Missouri, were told they’d be out of jobs when their plant closes in 2019 and operations shift to York, Pennsylvania, resulting in a net loss of 350 jobs.

    Only days after the Kansas City layoff news, Harley-Davidson announced a dividend hike and stock buyback plan worth about $696 million.

    Harley-Davidson is expanding overseas, with plans to begin operations at a plant in Thailand later this year. “Part of my job is being moved to York, but the other part is going to Bangkok,” Richard Pence, a machinist at the Kansas City plant told Milwaukee-Journal Sentinel earlier this month.

  143. leftwing says:

    Still waiting for stock ideas, shorts.

    C’mon guys, there must be something out there you dislike. Besides selected posters and suburban taxes.

  144. nwnj says:

    Fabius, right, to Protect someone you spy on them. Makes perfect sense. It can be known as the bama doctrine.

  145. Blue Ribbon Teacher says:

    Still waiting for stock ideas, shorts.

    C’mon guys, there must be something out there you dislike. Besides selected posters and suburban taxes.

    Short Tesla. Broken promises come due at some point.

    Phillip Morris is yielding 5% and recently took a tumble based on legislation. I’ve held it for 10 years now. But the amount of nicotine kids consuming at the high school level is staggering and unseen. What’s more amazing was that 9 years ago, I could have sworn it was at it’s all time low until the e-cig came out. The worst was 3 or 4 kids dipping. Now, because they vape it, you have many kids smoking the equivalent of 4 to 5 packs a day. Pretty insane. And studies have shown they are likely to move onto real cigarettes after the fact.

    I still like ARLP, earning 12% at it’s current price. I’m too invested to buy more.

    I like Silver as well at these levels in this climate, but already have a large position in that as well.

  146. Fabius Maximus says:

    nwnj,

    If it comes out that this guy was brought onto the campaign and then he reached out when he saw what was going on, would that change your narrative?

    This all comes down to, was there illegal actions going on within the campaign.

    And please spare us a Clinton Deflection!

  147. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Was looking for three years. Lived on the first floor of my rental.

    A family friend dumped a lot of money into the home, but ran into relationship problems and separated. So they had to sell and lose every penny they put into the remodel. Talking big money, pretty much a full renovation except for framing and foundation. New roof, siding, wooden garage doors, huge two level deck, screened in porch deck (under deck)with ceiling fan, huge shed, finished basement with beautiful custom wooden bar, knocked walls down and put in new kitchen, totally new fireplace, moldings, custom wooden heater covers, new stone front porch with oak wood ceiling, copper gutters, new paver walkway, new double front door, new windows, new sliding patio door (this alone was prob 7-8,000 being custom pella), new bathrooms, and bedroom converted to all custom closets (so used as walk in closet). So they lost a lot of money. This was high quality material and finishes. All brand new.

    We looked in numerous towns and were basically looking for a home we could live in forever. House met our criteria for turn key (didn’t even have to paint).

    It was not bought for speculative purposes, even though 3b thinks otherwise. I don’t “flip” houses, esp my family home. Never would, never will. A family is built around the home, and anyone trying to day trade that has issues. I want to live in this house for as long as I can. I have no interest in moving, or jumping from house to house. Not for me.

    Wayne was a good community to live in and raise a family. Right house came along, so we took it(my house was never listed or put up for sale, we bought it privately). I haven’t had to do one thing to the home in 6 years of ownership. So far I’m very happy with my purchase. Hopefully that never changes.

    NJdepartment. says:
    May 22, 2018 at 8:44 pm
    If Pump got into the RE market in Wayne in 2011 and had some reasonable explanation, I think he might be right in his prediction for the next 5 years…

  148. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Always so cool, till…..wait for it….they grow up and start raising a family.

    Walking Bye says:
    May 22, 2018 at 8:43 pm
    The question I would be asking regarding South Bergen. How many young single commuters from out of state want to stay in NJ to raise a family ? Working for a FAANG right now I can tell you the goal of many is to shine for a few years here and return back to their home state or get a promotion to Corp out on the West coast. So many rent out in crappy parts as they have no desire to indulge in anything West of the Passaic and north of 46. As hard as it is to understand, it is really a punishment to them to have anything to do with NJ.

  149. Bystander says:

    Worth repeating

    Grim to Blumpkin on his great Wayne investment:

    “You paid alot”

    Blumpy has been fighting his bagholder status since..hah

  150. Californicator says:

    9:20 the real decision came for me to sell my Harley cane after the local dealer told me that I “missed the cut-off” and they would no longer work on my 02 model. The shop would no longer service anything older than 2002.

    It was actually a tactic to get old timers to buy new bikes. Nope.

  151. Walking bye says:

    Pumpkin, we shall see. But if you saw the crying that these girls put up (it was a heavy female based work environment) when we announced they were moving Office from nyc to rt 78 Office space. My god HR thought they had a mutiny taking place. For all the complaining we do about the train commute to the city these kids were freaking out as many had no car and no way of getting there from Hoboken .

    Me ? I loved it. Quick commute down the parkway whiteout all the city nonsense. I like living in the leave burbs.

  152. Blue Ribbon Teacher says:

    They can just Uber to work

  153. Very Stable Genius says:

    @bessbell

    Is Trump a bad president? Yes. Indisputably.

    But is he a good husband and father? No.

  154. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Bystander,

    Here is what you don’t get. I wanted turn key. Turn key means you are not getting rock bottom pricing. Turn key is an anomaly, unless you buy brand new. We were looking for 3 years, and had given up. We were about to purchase a brand new home, that would have cost more and given much less. Would not have finished basement, smaller yard, lower grade finishings, and prob higher taxes. Was about to sign till we were fortunate enough to be introduced to our current home. I felt like I won the lottery. Got a house which was basically brand new and finished with high end materials…..and wait for it……I paid way cheaper. It also came with authentic old school slot machines, a brand new custom olhausen pool table, and multi instrument antique self playing piano.

    So tell me again how I’m a bagholder. Value is in the eye of the beholder.

  155. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Walking bye,

    They are your typical ambitious 20 or 30 something. It’s just so cool to have no car and live in a cramped apartment……..till you decide to grow up and raise a family.

  156. Ottoman says:

    No doubt you were jizzing rainbows every time Breitbart, James Okeefe and their merry band of dunces infiltrated a Democratic campaign or government agency and posted their doctored “gotcha” videos on Acorn, Sherry Sherrod and the Dept of Agriculture, and the Mary Landrieu campaign—for which Okeefe went to jail, I believe.

    Of course, Okeefe isn’t an officer of the law like FBI agents are. I hope you’re not going to tell us that the police aren’t legally allowed to conduct surveillance and go undercover because I’m sure you have no problem with the police shooting twelve year old black kids in public parks.

    nwnj says:
    May 22, 2018 at 10:01 pm
    Fabius, right, to Protect someone you spy on them. Makes perfect sense. It can be known as the bama doctrine.

  157. Ottoman says:

    Someone who appears to spend 19 hours a day arguing in the comments section of a real estate blog littered with misogynistic dunces probably isn’t always going to make the best choices in life. Just saying….

    Bystander says:
    May 22, 2018 at 11:10 pm
    Worth repeating

    Grim to Blumpkin on his great Wayne investment:

    “You paid alot”

    Blumpy has been fighting his bagholder status since..hah

  158. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Ottoman,

    I have fun here and enjoy the daily discussion with the posters here. To each and their own.

  159. Some guy says:

    This is not a recommendation, but something that might worth be someone exploring on the short side: XPO
    How could things go wrong?
    Indebted
    Cyclical
    Acquisitive
    Hyped
    I don’t have a need for shorts in my work, so I haven’t put any research into it, but at first glance it reminds me of YellowRoadway (now YRC) of over ten years ago, a large LTL trucker that acquired and went nearly bust. If I did short strategies I’d be investigating this one.

  160. Hold my beer says:

    Pumps,

    Your place sounds nice. Did it come with a tollbooth in the driveway?

  161. 3b says:

    Pumps never said you bought to speculate. But you are obsessed with your house and real estate appreciation. So yes I believe you bought with the belief that you will make money a lot of money on your house.

    As for cool and living in a cramped apartment . It does not matter to them now as they are not having kids until well into their 30s and 40s and beyond.

    In the recently released birth rate data the only age group where the birth rate is increasing is women in their 40s. So they have time to move to the house in the burbs if in fact they ever do.

  162. Libturd questioning the gender of Hillary's Cankle fluid. says:

    Grim, do you believe the Wayne parking operators should raise prices to maximize revenue and leave open spaces for all motorists willing to pay market prices for parking spots?

    Bloomfield parking is up to $100 a month. Low & behold, there is no waiting list. The problem with raising prices this high is that it encourages people to find other means to get into the city. For me to park there at the daily rate nearly makes it even Steven to drive in and park at an early bird. It’s $1 an hour, and due to NJTransit unreliability, you have to pay an extra $2 in case the serpent driving the train has undisclosed sleep apnea. So you would typically pay $11, but end up paying $13. My early bird in the city is $20. So then it’s the $20 round trip fair versus the Lincoln Tunnel toll + gas. Pretty damn close. Find a person or two to carpool with and all of a sudden, it’s cheaper and more efficient for two or three people in a car to somehow get you to work cheaper than riding on one of the busiest rail lines in the world. Only the government could figure out how to make passenger rail this inefficient and expensive.

  163. chicagofinance says:

    Be really careful with that one…… that said, it is in the upper end of the range….

    Some guy says:
    May 23, 2018 at 9:01 am
    This is not a recommendation, but something that might worth be someone exploring on the short side: XPO
    How could things go wrong?
    Indebted
    Cyclical
    Acquisitive
    Hyped
    I don’t have a need for shorts in my work, so I haven’t put any research into it, but at first glance it reminds me of YellowRoadway (now YRC) of over ten years ago, a large LTL trucker that acquired and went nearly bust. If I did short strategies I’d be investigating this one.

  164. Trick says:

    Speaking of moving up, we 2 separate friends of ours move from $400’s to the $500’s in our town within the last week. Good schools and reasonable tax’s for morris county keep’s them around.

  165. leftwing says:

    What’s your caution Chi?

    Looked at it for all of five minutes, initial pass will likely to dig deeper….

    Pros: Unions screaming/working conditions, 800lb gorilla competitor, even bigger customers with pricing power over them, senior management turnover…..

    Cons: Looks like nice earnings, need to understand how involved they are in solving the ephemereal ‘last mile’, low liquidity and no option volume, technicals aren’t horrible though I’d like it better beneath the 20/50 SMA, need to look at ownership structure any PEs, etc.

    TY Someguy

  166. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Yea, nj is not dying….just going through a transitional phase that’s in its early stages.

    For example, check this article out. This is the future of jersey. Many naysayers wrote off this property, guess they had no vision.

    “The ambitious developer proposed a new vision of a “work, live, play” office campus, with tons of hip amenities in addition to the office tenants, a thriving hub of activity, also open to the public — the antithesis of a boring office building.
    Most of his peers told him it was a giant mistake when he bought the building for $27 million in 2013 after five years of negotiations.
    Now?
    “We went from insane to genius in about six months,” Zucker, 56, says with a smile while giving a tour inside.”

    http://www.nj.com/entertainment/index.ssf/2018/05/inside_bell_works_holmdel_nj_former_bell_labs.html

    Trick says:
    May 23, 2018 at 9:57 am
    Speaking of moving up, we 2 separate friends of ours move from $400’s to the $500’s in our town within the last week. Good schools and reasonable tax’s for morris county keep’s them around.

  167. D-FENS says:

    Jizzing Rainbows, misogynistic dunce…all great handles for you newcomers.

    Enjoy!

  168. chicagofinance says:

    leftwing: I do not short, and have only ever done so with derivatives and synthetic structures. In this newer environment, the cost of carry is higher also.

    I would look to levered stuff in the U.S. energy sector that has run up on the Saudi King’s little temper tantrum. It looks as if the worse operators’ cost structures are still out of whack.

    Here is another one if you have an opinion on cord cutting and the effects of managing the dwindling cash flow of your main profit driver while still expecting to command a premium valuation.
    https://www.cnbc.com/video/2018/03/05/disney-must-go-all-in-to-win-the-streaming-game-says-btigs-greenfield.html

  169. Some guy says:

    The risk is published rumors that it could be taken over. e.g. http://www.land-link.com/blog/speculation-swirls-amid-rumors-of-an-xpo-logistics-buyout-by-home-depot
    Makes no business sense to me. I wonder if management is spreading the rumor itself.

  170. Libturd questioning the gender of Hillary's Cankle fluid. says:

    I know I always end up agreeing with the Chi man. But the energy play is probably the move. Oil at $70 will drop rapidly, especially under a “who gives a sh1t about fracking” white house. Last time we hit $70 so many gas mines went on line oil nearly dropped to $20 a barrel. Or did it go lower. And this was with envirobomma in command. This will happen again.

  171. Californicator says:

    For 69-year-old Jeff Whipple, Bergen County, New Jersey, was about as good a place to grow up as anywhere. “Suburban New Jersey in the ‘50s, in a working-class town—it was like Leave It to Beaver,” he said. “I lived on a block where there were probably 50 other kids. I had four brothers, I married a girl from my hometown … That’s just the way things were in those days.”

    Whipple left New Jersey for college, but returned soon after. He estimates that 20 percent of his high-school friends still live within a 20-mile radius of Bogota, the small town in Bergen County where they grew up. But most of those friends’ kids have moved away: “They couldn’t afford it. That’s not a scientific survey, but it’s the scuttlebutt. It’s in the air.”

    [Like CityLab on Facebook]

    These days, some Millennials can’t get out of New Jersey fast enough. From 2000 to 2013, the number of 22-to-34-year-olds living in New Jersey fell by 2.3 percent, according to Census data, even while the number of people in this age bracket increased by 6.8 percent nationally during the same timeframe. According to a calculation by Governing using Census estimates, New Jersey ranked 47th out of 50 states and Washington, D.C., for its percentage of Millennials in 2012.

  172. Fast Eddie says:

    These days, some Millennials can’t get out of New Jersey fast enough.

    The ones that are here are in Hoboken.

  173. Libturd questioning the gender of Hillary's Cankle fluid. says:

    Just paid my sewer bill for Montclair and it went up another $50. Murphy just signed the (PSE&G needs our help even though they are a disgustingly huge and profitable utility) bill which raises our energy bills probably another $50 a year (or more) to help keep our incredibly outdated nuclear plants online.

    What do you guys pay a year for sewer? That is, if your town has broken it out of the regular property taxes making it non-deductible. We are up to $652.56 a year.

  174. leftwing says:

    Good ideas. Will check into disney, it’s been a pig for a while.

    Chi, this is for my trading account. I don’t actually short a stock either, very rarely even own stock in there nearly always options trades. Use known structures to put on trades that pay off in flat/rising or flat/down markets. Find I have more of the former positions right now so I am trying to put on some of latter to balance. My overall strategy in my trading account is that I’m not smart enough to call ST market direction correctly (next exit, Nov elections) so rather than try to go directional I try to stay ‘smart market neutral’, maybe with a little bias.

    A blackjack analogy would be taking a basic strategy player win rate of 49.5% and by being ‘smart balanced’ effectively deal myself over the course of a sitting mostly splits and double downs and jack my win rate to 60% or so. It requires discipline – hunches and rumors along with varying trade sizes can kill you.

    It’s worked well but I also need a gut for the losers as they will be there and can be big. I did however make an embarrassing amount of money over the last three years on one money center bank…I’m at the point now in that stock where I have banked a bunch of LEAPs at a buck over the current share price out 400 days at nearly no cost…that is fcuking lottery ticket, better than pick-6…also other parts of that bank holding made a good amount in the Feb downdraft…my strategy is always my ‘smart’ winners will gain more than my ‘smart’ losers in a market move either way….got lucky in Feb, my long banks popped with the ten year while my shorts got pulled down with market…that was like splitting twos, twice, and then pulling eights and nines….

    Anyway, my bias between now and mid-term elections is flat/down while my trading account is more flat/up so I need some ‘smart shorts’. As I side it’s my trading account so while it would sting if it theoretically went to zero I realize the risk and will manage to a loss threshold if need be. If that happens, sucks, but I wear big boy pants and have to be prepared to accept the outcome of that risk.

  175. Trick says:

    Lib

    Our sewer is $297 per quarter and water adds another $120-150, yours looks like a bargain.

  176. JCer says:

    Lib in maplewood it is way cheaper $290 per year

  177. Trick says:

    Maybe that is why my tax’s are still under $10,000

  178. Hold my beer says:

    Libturd

    We pay $420 a year for sewer

    $142 a year for garbage

    And a $75 a year for drainage.

    All are paid on a prorated basis as part of the water bill.

  179. JCer says:

    compared to my property taxes the sewer bill is a rounding error…..

  180. Hold my beer says:

    Water varies. About $30 a month late fall to early spring when the sprinklers are off. $80-$100 a month when we have them on.

  181. leftwing says:

    Chi, to follow, that’s why TSLA would never work for me. Trading those options…might as well sit at a regular blackjack table playing blindfolded.

    I put on a trade with a F-100 company….24 DTE, encompassed earnings. Most people bullish on stock, good outlook from my perspective. Bias for stock, up. Sold a strangle ATM and bought an OTM call. Net credit after covering the call spread was 0.52. Stock moves up from where it is to infinity I make 0.52 in less than a month. Hard to figure that return (what’s the denominator) but if I use share price it’s over 2%, if I use my broker’s margin as a proxy for risk it’s around 8%. If the stock didn’t rise and just stayed flat juice those returns 3x.

    The hidden beauty for me, given my personality, is that if the trade went against me and the shares declined through my put strike plus premium my trade management has me rolling out and down the short put. With a major corporate it’s not going to zero and managing the trade that way can have me buying back in the shares (voluntarily or not) after a serious decline which I find hard to do unmotivated. At that point I’m usually net out of pocket a little with a solid company at a 52 week low and start writing calls against it…normally get to breakeven, often a profit ATEOTD, though it takes a bit longer.

    My first rule of investing, know thyself, lol.

  182. Libturd questioning the gender of Hillary's Cankle fluid. says:

    Only sewer. Our water is separate.

  183. Yo! says:

    In case anybody cares about NJ real estate – NJ housing market is improving into the spring. April stats are out and show house prices up 6.3% statewide year to date. Hudson County led the state with house prices up 17.3%.

    The housing horror movie continues in Salem County where house prices nosedived 26.9%, and the median Salem County house trade is now at a lower price than in West Virginia and Mississippi. Salem County transaction volume surged 30%, and I suspect foreclulosures are finally clearing, with the pickup in buyers driven by investors, not owner occupiers suddenly moving into the county.

  184. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Yo,

    Looks like I might hit my projections. Will pumpkin get another call correct?

    The Great Pumpkin says:
    December 29, 2017 at 1:55 pm
    Nice earnings drive equities to double digit gains starting to lay the building blocks for the belief that you can’t lose with the stock market aka bubble building.

    30 year mortgage rates end the year at 5%…or just a little below it.

    National avg 7%

    Nj housing beats national avg. with 10% appreciation at the minimum as this market finally catches up to the rest the nation after ridding itself of foreclosures and as buyers fight over limited inventory in effort to buy before rates go up. Plus, nj economy finally doing well enough to support gains in housing.

    If amazon comes here, I expect even bigger gains. About to get good around here guys, a lot of economic activity going to be happening here in the next few years.

    This is where it gets a little tricky, which tier sees the gains. Surprisingly, biggest gains might be in the upper tier market. This market has stagnated for a while and has plenty of room to grow as more more people realize how strong this economy is really becoming…..and act upon it.

    This is the early stage, early 2020’s is where it really goes off!

  185. The Great Pumpkin says:

    I’m about invest in Salem county. Jesus, that’s a low risk play. If you can purchase for 50,000 and rent it out for 1,000 a month….winning!

  186. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Anecdotal evidence, but really says something to me. Saw my younger cousin, he lives in Clifton. Not swiftest 20 something. He said, “ny people are moving to nj for the cheap rents.” When my younger cousin says this, you know the market is finally getting going in nj.

    Would be nice if I could get a little respect around here, but I’ll keep making great calls over and over again!

  187. The Great Pumpkin says:

    From the NyTimes article I posted at 2:05. What a good article. You have to read the article to make sense of this quote, but it’s damn telling. We need to fix the electoral college so this country doesn’t get taken down by the populism movement from these rural republicans.

    “For the United States, urban cores of big cities vote Democratic (72 percent in the 2016 presidential election). Small cities vote Republican (73 percent), as do rural areas (85 percent). More evenly divided suburban areas and middle-size cities decide the outcome.

    In the Brexit vote, 84 percent of the voting districts in England’s largest cities (London, Manchester, Birmingham and Leeds) voted to remain in the European Union, while 87 percent of those in rural areas voted to leave.”

  188. Hold my beer says:

    I cant tell if that’s pumpkin or an imposter.

  189. Fast Eddie says:

    Pumpkin is an imposter. It’s satire… or an attempt. It’s REinvestor and whoever else.

  190. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Fast,

    I’m making great calls and you take a dump on it by calling it satire. Unreal.

  191. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Now I’m an imposter….shaking my head.

    People are getting paid big money to make lousy predictions. Pumps is here giving free advice, but gets laughed at…..called a troll. That’s life for you.

  192. 3b says:

    Pumps you need to have your meds modified. You sound like you are coming apart at the seams.

  193. The Original NJ ExPat says:

    Pumps is here, talking about himself in the third person. Buyer’s remorse turns to delusion.

  194. NJdepartment. says:

    Pumpkin might be making some good calls. You never know..
    Because most of the guys on the forum are coming here to look for articles on RE bubble and its kinda brainwashing..

    But what puzzles me is, why isn’t the tax bill making any dent in RE prices which was expected to be about 10%.. It might very well be people on sidelines panicking about interest rate and price appreciation and stretching themselves more than they should be… if that is the case, this will be a bust soon

  195. The Original NJ ExPat says:

    Given the quality and soundness of your advice, it is still priced too high.

    Pumps is here giving free advice

  196. 3b says:

    Nj Dept re pumps, it’s obvious you are new here.

  197. Californicator says:

    3:26 nobody….and I mean nobody young who works in the City is thinking oh I dunno, how’s the commute from “Clifton”.

  198. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Hurts doesn’t? Pumps calls it again!

    Tko!

  199. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Cali,

    My sister has a rental property in Clifton too. Just had one of the apartments listed(she’s a realtor along with being a teacher). Her words… you were dead on, mike! Clifton market is on fire. She had a professor rent out the apartment which would have been unheard of 10 years ago. Spillover continues… and it will reach Wayne.

  200. Chi says:

    The new tax act will only make an impact starting late 2018 or next year when filers fully understand what has happened. People think in terms of monthly payments. When they do a late year estimate or file their 2018 returns, the horror stories will appear in the papers.

    Maybe that thesis should be proving ground of leftwings short strategy. ?
    . says:
    May 23, 2018 at 4:31

    But what puzzles me is, why isn’t the tax bill making any dent in RE prices which was expected to be about 10%.. It might very well be people on sidelines panicking about interest rate and price appreciation and stretching themselves more than they should be… if that is the case, this will be a bust soon

  201. JCer says:

    I’m joining the pumps is deluded party. The health of the property market is tied to the health of the job market, income levels and stock market prices. The Job market for a large segment of NJ’s middle class population actually seems fairly weak for a boom market and housing affordability at the moment hinges on continued super low rates. the markets doing well in NJ consist of places where NYC people are relocating to obtain superior housing from small apartments. Wayne is not on these people’s radar, the upper middle class who was driving that market is in the process of being downsized because many of them are back office people in finance, Franklin Lakes had tons of these back-office upper level managers they aren’t buying anymore due to a challenging job market. For Wayne to pick up that 150-200k job market needs to pick up which will carry the buyers further west. For a boomign economy the job market feels kind of spotty, not as much hiring, not as much largess as in years past.

  202. leftwing says:

    I’ve seen the top end pull back here. Pre-recession, $2.5+ was top end and moving. Post-recession, ground to a halt. Started to come back in the last couple years with a pretty bright red line drawn at $2.0…beneath, moves; above, doesn’t. Bright red line has now moved down to $1.7-1.8, in an upward moving market. I attribute to smart money getting the tax impact sooner (and in greater magnitude).

    Markets adjusted, two properties recently listed that two years ago would have been knocked down have been renovated/additions bumping them from the 800 or so purchase to 1.5-1.6 sale range. Marginal builders (new guys from outside the area) who don’t have a grasp of the market still doing knockdowns. They’re holding the sale price line by buying low cost properties on busier roads, ex-neighborhood. Think they will be major bagholders.

  203. leftwing says:

    “Maybe that thesis should be proving ground of leftwings short strategy”

    Right now I’m just trying to figure out how to figure out what may happen in the midterms and how various sectors will respond.

    Mid-Sept will be here in an eye blink.

  204. leftwing says:

    Cryptos in a major spanking again. SPOT driving me fcuking crazy, may need to get out of to maintain my blood pressure.

  205. 3b says:

    Now he has a sister who owns a rental property too. And she said pumps you called it. A Professor renting an apartment in Clifton is all you need to know. Would it make a difference if it was a janitor. Assuming of course he has a sister and she owns a rental property. Yep spill over into Wayne with all the rental apartments being built! And this is a guy who said this morning that he does not speculate as I accuse him of and he does not view his house as an investment. Now he speaks of spillover to Wayne which will drive up prices in Wayne including house prices and of course including his. Ladies and gentlemen of the jury I rest my case. Pumps guilty as charged.

  206. The Great Pumpkin says:

    3b,

    If the market blew up in wayne right now, what would it matter to me? Am I going to sell? My buy was never speculative. I was always buying for the long term, that’s where I save a lot of money with a 2.75% rate. You think I’m going to risk losing that? Who in their right mind would hit the low rate and then sell in a market of rising rates? Whole point is to milk that free money for the next 13 years.

  207. Californicator says:

    Forget Wayne, Linden is where all the action is:

    Former Mets and Phillies outfielder Lenny Dykstra was arrested in front of the Linden police station on Wednesday morning on charges he threatened an Uber driver while in possession of drugs, authorities say.

    The driver, a 47-year-old Roselle man, told police he picked up Dyksta in Linden. When the driver turned down Dykstra’s request to change his destination, the ex-major league player allegedly pulled out a weapon, pointed it at the m

  208. The Original NJ ExPat says:

    Why not just buy here and wait for the spillover from Clifton to get there? Wait a minute. What if the population is moving toward the city and not away from it. Maybe Wayne is spilling out, not in?

    https://www.remax.com/realestatehomesforsale/12-cedar-glen-dr-blairstown-nj-07825-gid400018728239.html

  209. Californicator says:

    California Home prices up 7.5% this year. Cannot complain about my payout in Jersey. I will always be grateful to the Garden State for all that it has done for me….now I am just a simple “retiree”..in SoCal….and it is nice. But it is very very quiet…

  210. Blue Ribbon Teacher says:

    Pumps, I wouldn’t give away too many details about your sister on this forum.

  211. Californicator says:

    LOS ANGELES, CA — Housing prices in Southern California reached a record high in April, according to a new report by real estate data experts CoreLogic. Tight inventory is driving the record spike, which brought the median price of a Southern California home to $520,000 up 7.2 percent from the year before.

    While the trend reflects the tight inventory, it hardly captures the squeeze that homebuyers are feeling these days.

    “The roughly 7 percent gain in Southern California’s media sale price over the past year understates the hit that homebuyers have taken, given the nearly 50 basis point rise in mortgage rates over that period,” said Andrew LePage, research analyst with CoreLogic. “In April, the principal-and- interest payment on the media-priced home was up nearly 13 percent year over year.”

  212. Californicator says:

    Betcha Pump’s sis is a hot Asian……….Mmmmm

  213. NJdepartment. says:

    Guys, stop beating pump.. Looks like he made the right call 7 years ago. he has a track record.. You guys can say anything but haven’t proved your credentials…

  214. Californicator says:

    ^^credentials, we don’ need no stinking’ credentials…..

  215. PumpkinFace says:

    You should read the last 7 years of comments if you think so. And the brain trust regular posters here should stop responding to him. He gets off on the negative attention. He probably gets off on any attention.

    NJdepartment. says:
    May 23, 2018 at 7:26 pm
    Guys, stop beating pump.. Looks like he made the right call 7 years ago. he has a track record.. You guys can say anything but haven’t proved your credentials…

  216. PumpkinFace says:

    Oh, and you have more than one comment from the last few days saying how they delayed purchasing real estate near peak bubble due to the insight provided here. Credential that.

  217. homeboken says:

    Pumps is an over-paid back-office hack. Spends hours a day on this site and contributes anywhere from 20-50 comments per day. I can’t imagine what type of job offers this level of “free-time” or allows for goofing off to this degree and doesn’t result in a pink slip.

    I truly am shocked this guy has (at least claims to have) a real job. I’d fire someone that spent even a fraction of the time Pumps spends here atNJRE blog time. Imagine all the rest of the internet? The guy can’t do more than 20 minutes of real, actual work in a day.

  218. Blue Ribbon Teacher says:

    Right call? What stocks did he buy?

  219. NJDepartment says:

    I think Pumpkin is on to something instead of all you guys fearing RE bubble in NJ. You guys are so deeply into the bubble theory and making wild guesses.. Without providing enough rationale. Pumpkin on the other hand seems to have called the RE bottom and bought in at the right time. So he has some track record instead of you guys just ranting all day..

  220. homeboken says:

    Agree with BRT – The guy bought a house 15 years ago and hasn’t defaulted. For that, he claims he is an expert?? When he puts on a trade that backs up his thesis and then exits that trade in the green, I will say “Good Call”

    Otherwise, he is typical back office schmuck that thinks he knows more than the front office guys. He has a massive inferiority complex due to his middling career accomplishments.

  221. The Great Pumpkin says:

    I’m not some schmuck. I’m highly efficient at my job. I don’t participate in any other blog. So how difficult is it to comment on a blog. I suffer from ocd, and I happen to love real estate. It’s where the majority of my net worth is parked. It’s been good to me.

  222. 3b says:

    Nj Dept equals pumps.

  223. PumpkinFace says:

    Finished reading already?

    NJDepartment says:
    May 23, 2018 at 9:55 pm
    I think Pumpkin is on to something instead of all you guys fearing RE bubble in NJ. You guys are so deeply into the bubble theory and making wild guesses.. Without providing enough rationale. Pumpkin on the other hand seems to have called the RE bottom and bought in at the right time. So he has some track record instead of you guys just ranting all day..

  224. The Great Pumpkin says:

    I’m making epic calls five years in advance and get no respect. They still ask for more…it’s ridiculous at this point as I have proven myself over and over again.

    My track record—

    When no one my age was buying houses anymore at a young age, and at the time stocks were all the rave, I purchased from the beaten down real estate market. Bought at the turn of the century. This means I bought low. Then the runup came, and by 2003 ( I was 23), I tried to tell anyone that would listen to not buy. Of course I was called a naive young man. I was told I didn’t understand. Sure. This stuff comes natural to me. Since I have ocd, I can think very deeply on subjects I obssses about. That’s how I was able to call this 2017/18 as the beginnings of the boom period that will come in the 2020’s. I can’t explain it, but my mind just has this gift of taking out all this noise and concentrating on the sounds that are telling the story. Too many experts overthink and can’t seperate the noise. This is why they are always off.

    I have bought consecutive bottoms and have successfully called the bubble. So in the past 20 years, I have gone 100% on my calls. Two bottoms, and successfully called bubble. Also called return of housing appreciation in 2017/18 back in 2012/13. All can be found on this blog. It’s written in history. That’s why I love this place, it’s a diary of your thoughts.

    NJDepartment says:
    May 23, 2018 at 9:55 pm
    I think Pumpkin is on to something instead of all you guys fearing RE bubble in NJ. You guys are so deeply into the bubble theory and making wild guesses.. Without providing enough rationale. Pumpkin on the other hand seems to have called the RE bottom and bought in at the right time. So he has some track record instead of you guys just ranting all day..

  225. The Great Pumpkin says:

    My housing purchases are evidence of buying both bottoms. Bubble, you will have to take my word for it. 2017/18 calls can be found in the archives for almost any year prior.

  226. homeboken says:

    ” I can’t explain it, but my mind just has this gift of taking out all this noise and concentrating on the sounds that are telling the story.”

    This is a truly amazing quote. You are entertaining, I’ll give you that.

    I do have to ask though – If you have skills like this that are so superior to the rest of the investing public, why hasn’t anyone recognized this in your career? Brilliant minds like yourself are highly compensated for their intellectual skills. That’s the biggest question mark in your story? Why do others get called “expert” , demand the top wages, live in the beautiful homes of Summit/Chatham and your brilliant mind is reconciling their daily P&L and retiring to your estate in Wayne?

  227. Hold my beer says:

    This place is getting weird again.

  228. The Great Pumpkin says:

    My wife and I are doing well for ourselves. Give us some time.

    If you get rich quick, you are lucky. If you get rich long, it’s calked skill.

    My family income has been consistently in the top 5% for almost a decade, and these latest raises should have us climbing quick, esp as passive income grows by the year.

  229. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Do hot successful women marry losers? No.

    My jj moment

  230. Hold my beer says:

    “it’s calked skill”

    Pumps is making me laugh. He’s a blend of jj and George costanza tonight.

  231. The Original NJ ExPat says:

    When no one my age was buying houses anymore at a young age, and at the time stocks were all the rave, I purchased from the beaten down real estate grandmother market.

    Do hot successful women marry losers?
    Yeah. Especially the high mileage ones.

  232. The Original NJ ExPat says:

    Nj Dept equals pumps.

    Kind…of. When he goes off his meds he goes a little bit Sybil.

  233. The Original NJ ExPat says:

    If you get rich quick, you are lucky. If you get rich long, it’s calked skill. If you get rich not at all, it’s calked Polish.

  234. The Original NJ ExPat says:

    leftwing – I’m predominantly an intermediate term long trend trader. I’m glad to hold positions years, but typically I’m in 3-9 months. I also options trade, but safe stuff. Not covered call safe, but I’ll sell some naked puts but also do a lot of vertical, calendar, and diagonal spreads. Anyway, I have an “orange” account with TD Ameritrade (also Schwab accounts, but that’s besides the point). ThinkorSwim is the Ameritrade platform that I use. I need, need, need the use of their scan engine to generate my entries. They broke it yesterday and it is still broken today. AMTD had a big upgrade over the weekend and everything seemed OK come Monday, but I think they may have made a catastrophic mistake because I’ve never seen their scan engine down during the trading week like it is now. I’m fine with management of my current positions, but I can’t generate any new trades without being able to feed my ThinkScript code to their scan engine. If their scan engine remains down for the remainder of the week I would imagine it will serious impact next quarter’s earnings. I’ve been thinking about opening up new accounts with IBKR and Options House for a while now, and now I probably will. If their scan engine remains inoperable for another day, I’ll probably buy some AMTD puts in my Schwab accounts.

  235. NJDepartment says:

    I still believe Pump is on to something that you guys are unable to see due to too much bubble froth in your heads..

    You guys are getting frustrated instead of giving valid rebuttals..

  236. leftwing says:

    Ex, sound very similar. My horizon on my trading account is tighter, 30-45 on short end, 3 months or so on longer end. Other than LEAPs used in lieu of the underlying or purchased opportunistically depending on vol spreads etc.

    Funny my ‘trading partner’ and best friend is on ToS as are a few others I speak with, all rave about the screeners. If I weren’t still in the process of consolidating down from an inordinate number of historical accounts spread out over a bunch of institutions I may be up on them. May have to look elsewhere, always had IAB in the back of my mind. Currently on Schwab’s Leading Edge, I generate opportunities using fundamentals and some technicals and then cross that with what’s going on in the options market. Not sure I need all the screening power unless I intend to reverse that process and start with option screens of the entire (liquid) market first.

  237. NJDepartment says:

    Only thing he may be off is trying to be too optimistic in NJ due to property tax impacts next year with zero deduction.

    Which means a 20K property tax is equivalent to 400K mortgage, for life.. That I believe will blow very soon bringing down prices to adjust to affordability.

    Even then, the Job market for high earners isn’t that great in metro. I’m sticking to my 230K ( almost same for past 5-6 years) salary in IT and not really trying to look elsewhere, as I will miss out on the severance package if I i get into trouble if economy turns sour.

    Only thing that puzzles me is, the RE may be on the rise but who is buying all these big mansions if the salaries have’t gone up for the past 10 years.. I believe the Nj prices may be going up but at the same time, lot of people are stretching and rushing due to fear of appreciation and interest rate rise.

    My realtor told me I should be able to get FHA loan… and just need to put down 3.5%(Even-though I have 30% down payment to do if needed)

    This tells me, most NY metro buyers are getting FHA with 3.5%, which is scary. Only reason you would put 3.5% is playing stock market in RE.

  238. Libturd questioning the gender of Hillary's Cankle fluid. says:

    NJD and Pumps are the same person for sure.

    I had no idea we had another Stephen Hawking among us. Then again, Hawking never hawked pancakes in a can.

    I’m still waiting for wage growth.

    Pumps watches too many movies. He is mistaking a Beautiful Mind with his simpleton mind.

Comments are closed.