But are we ready to change?

From the comments the other day, but good enough to get top page billing. From the NY Times:

As Office Parks Empty, Towns Turn Vacancies Into Opportunities

Perched off a busy road in northern New Jersey with sweeping vistas of a vast reservoir sits a new relic of the suburban panorama: the international headquarters of Toys “R” Us slogging through its final days after the company announced that it would be shutting down for good.

The decline of the toy giant prompted wistful recollections across the country of the increasingly bygone era of brick-and-mortar retail, but concern in this town quickly turned to the exoskeleton that the company leaves behind — a roughly 200-acre plot with multiple office buildings scattered across the land that once housed as many as 1,600 workers.

While the worry locally is focused in part on what an extended vacancy might mean for the town’s tax base, the fate of the once thriving headquarters illustrates a much broader reality confronting many towns across America: the era of the suburban office parks is coming to an end.

Outside Silicon Valley and other areas that have benefited from the technology boom, what were once the lifeblood of many suburbs have now become eyesores, forests of empty glass and concrete boxes that communities must figure out what to do with.

“The model as it played out in New Jersey is now seemingly obsolete,” said Louise A. Mozingo, the chairwoman of the department of landscape architecture and environmental planning at University of California, Berkeley.

Suburban office parks have lost their luster for a variety of reasons, including a growing preference among younger workers for life in more dynamic urban centers than in sometimes staid and sleepy suburbs. And the rapid pace of technological advancement has made the need for many clerical and processing jobs and the real estate to house those workers increasingly obsolete.

But it was the recession and its aftermath that sounded the death knell for many suburban parks; New Jersey lost about 100,000 office-related jobs since 2008, according to James W. Hughes, a professor at Rutgers University. By 2010, the majority of the state’s suburban office inventory was between 20 and 30 years old, built during a much more primitive information technology era.

“So, not only do we have a lot of obsolete space, but we also have workplace densification occurring at the same time,” said Mr. Hughes, referring to the move by many companies toward smaller, shared work spaces. “That’s the dilemma that really burst onto the scene maybe three years ago or four years ago.”

In the 1980s, about 90 to 100 million square feet of suburban office space was built in New Jersey, accounting for 80 percent of the state’s inventory, Mr. Hughes said. By contrast, only 50 percent of the national suburban office inventory was built in the same period.

New Jersey currently has over 6.5 million square feet of vacant office park space, according to CoStar, a commercial real estate company. In northern New Jersey, 23 percent of office space is listed as available, which includes vacant spaces and buildings that are emptying out as leases end, according to Newmark Knight Frank, a commercial real estate firm.

But vacant office parks are important to municipal coffers because they remain on property tax rolls. Yet the longer they sit vacant, the faster their assessments plummet, forcing municipalities to find other sources of revenue and in some cases raise real estate taxes in a state that already has the country’s highest property taxes.

“None of these millennials want to work in a corporate campus in western Morris County and have to commute long distances to meet their friends at a bar,’’ said Carl Goldberg, a developer who has been vocal about the redevelopment of office parks. “It’s just not the lifestyle that they’re interested in.”

In Wayne, where the Toys “R” Us logo still welcomes passers-by to the campus, Mayor Christopher P. Vergano said he believed the site would prove desirable, though possibly as something far different.

“I think there will be change,’’ he said, “only because we don’t see big corporate tenants buying 200-acre properties anymore.”

This entry was posted in Demographics, Economics, Employment, New Development, New Jersey Real Estate. Bookmark the permalink.

158 Responses to But are we ready to change?

  1. grim says:

    Quite possibly the best NY Post cover ever?

    Kim Thong Un?

  2. Yo! says:

    Bell Labs in Holmdel, “particularly successful.” Really? That thing was vacant for 10 years.

    Merck HQ in Readington going on 5 years vacant. That is 1,000 acre property straddling Route 78. I asked a few warehouse developers if they would build a warehouse park there to serve North Jersey and New York City, avoiding the Turnpike tolls and reducing delivery time. They said no way. Labor pool too shallow and to skilled to staff a lot of warehouses.

  3. Yo! says:

    Opposition across NJ to office park and mall redevelopment from politicians and residents show why this state is failing and deserves to be.

    What is the over-under on the Toys property in Wayne up and running as thriving real estate again? I say 2025.

  4. grim says:

    The 99 acre ex-GAF HQ in Wayne is still vacant, they left in 2013.

    Haier’s big move to Wayne went bust when they bought GE Appliances and moved the HQ down to Kentucky, so they are vacant now too. That’s a renovated 56,000sqft building, empty. They lasted 2 years here.

    I can easily rattle off another 150,000 square feet of vacant industrial/office, probably close to 700,000 square feet of vacancies with TRU.

    2025 is highly optimistic.

  5. Very Stable Genius says:

    state should take it over for the homeless

    grim says:
    May 31, 2018 at 7:58 am
    The 99 acre ex-GAF HQ in Wayne is still vacant, they left in 2013.

    2025 is highly optimistic.

  6. grim says:

    state should take it over for the homeless

    Murphy just signed a new tax on the poor and homeless, $500 a year if they don’t have health insurance.

    Suspect they’ll soon leave for more hospitable climates.

  7. 1987 Condo says:

    I’d agree 2025 very optimistic. It took Verona/NC 15-20 years for Hilltop, Cedar Grove now in year 23, throw in lawsuits, environmental issues, COAH, recessions, housing bubbles and it takes a long time apparently…

  8. grim says:

    Toll Brothers only took 3 years in Franklin Lakes, purchase to construction.

    It’s possible.

  9. 1987 Condo says:

    Agree, Hilltop was Hovnanian….there’s your difference, LOL!

  10. Mike S says:

    ““None of these millennials want to work in a corporate campus in western Morris County and have to commute long distances to meet their friends at a bar,’’ said Carl Goldberg, a developer who has been vocal about the redevelopment of office parks. “It’s just not the lifestyle that they’re interested in.””

    This right here is a huge factor in RE trends.

  11. Not Grimey Grimy says:

    Unlike yahoo states, is very easy to sign up for adult only income based medicaid in Nj post Christie. This is what the powers that be want.

    Is because is humanitarian, bureaucratically direct and easy, and the underinsured/non-insured hospital compensation fund that was created in the late 80’s to subsidize indigent care after all public hospital became non-profits (Jersey City Medical Center,etc) was raided and essentially destroyed by Christie when ObamaCare became law.

    So no insurance now, really means hospital will get next to nothing or nothing. So the whole health system pushes for essentially socialized medicine through expanded Medicaid HMOs with very narrow network and benefits – if i remember correctly the Aetna Medicaid HMO had only one Bergen County hospital (Holy Name) and federal subsidize clinics as participating providers – so you are getting next to nothing as a patient/user.

    grim says:
    May 31, 2018 at 8:09 am
    state should take it over for the homeless

    Murphy just signed a new tax on the poor and homeless, $500 a year if they don’t have health insurance.

    Suspect they’ll soon leave for more hospitable climates.

  12. grim says:

    Clearly you’ve misunderstood my comment on the poor and homeless.

    I’m talking about postgrad millennials working gig economy jobs and living at home with their parents.

  13. Very Stable Genius says:

    @SethMacFarlane

    We get the government we deserve.

    grim says:
    May 31, 2018 at 6:56 am
    Quite possibly the best NY Post cover ever?

    Kim Thong Un?

  14. “None of these millennials want to work in a corporate campus in western Morris County and have to commute long distances to meet their friends at a bar ….”
    This right here is a huge factor in RE trends.

    Agreed. This is being compounded though by an accelerating trend of companies pushing employees to work from home. I know, at least within my field, one very large investment bank has a stated goal of ‘everyone who isn’t physically needed on site works from home’ by 2020. Another large market data provider just eliminated a large number of fixed desks in their office and went to floating desks (basically you bring in your corporate laptop and get a new desk everyday) to encourage the same thing.
    I’m sure this has to be in play in other fields as well.

  15. Fast Eddie says:

    Just so I understand, the millennials want to bar hop for the rest of their lives; meanwhile, we’re going to take these corporate parks and build lots and lots of houses to sell to… who? Just so these people can commute into the city when they could have lived and worked in the communities around the corporate parks? No one wants to move to the suburbs any longer according to the experts. Please enlighten me and let me know what I’m missing.

  16. grim says:

    Inner-ring suburbs will become urban, outer-ring suburbs will increase in density, the “city” will continue to grow outwards, blurring any borders between towns that exist today. Standard of living will decline, cost of living will increase. There will be more infill, there will be more teardown and build up. Same story for the last 50 years. The soup of the day will continue to change, however the major difference is that we need to find a way to get a premium price for cheaper soup, and make the diners feel they aren’t getting swindled. Global competitiveness requires us to adopt a lower standard of living, and this is achieved through higher density living, and that living costing WAY more money.

  17. grim says:

    Primary cities will continue to grow, secondary cities will stagnate, tertiary cities will slowly fall apart as it becomes impossible to grow jobs, grow population, or grow incomes – or even worse, afford to operate in an environment of rapidly decline tax revenues.

    The re-urbanization of America doesn’t mean that people will flock to downtown Scranton from the suburbs, it means that Scranton will not exist, and it’s residents will flock to Pittsburgh and Philly, or LA, San Fran, or NYC.

  18. outer-ring suburbs will increase in density
    Does Monmouth count as an outer-ring? I ask because I know that based on the 2010 census numbers the population has been in decline, not a huge decline but still, if I remember correctly, its the first time that has happened.
    I know for the town I live in population peaked in 1980 and has been declining since; 23,013 in 1980 vs 19,994 in `16. Year on year numbers are small but thats a …. %13 drop compared to the peak, when a lot of the commercial/retail spaces were developed.

  19. Yo! says:

    Grim 8:12 am – that is why Toll should be the Toys Wayne site redeveloped. They have the capacity get the project done quickly, without need for external financing or joint venture partners. They are no longer just a McMansion and urban condo developer. Toll is building a speculative office building (no signed leases) in Hoboken, where office vacancy is 3.5%.

  20. grim says:

    I’d define inner ring as:

    Bergen, Essex, Hudson, Eastern Passaic, Union, and Northern Middlesex.

    I’d define outer ring as:

    Western Passaic, Morris, Somerset, Southern Middlesex, Monmouth – perhaps even Ocean.

    You’d have to evaluate the Philly area as well, as you begin to approach some overlap.

  21. homeboken says:

    The whole idea that millenials will abandon the “american dream” and own a home in the sub-urbs is a bit misguided, IMO.

    Sure when they are 22-30, the idea of living in the burbs is not attractive. So that age bracket will live in NYC/Hoboken/JC, if they happen to be one of the gainfully employed that can afford that.

    Once the get married and desire to start a family, those Urban Centers become a huge problem. Anecdottaly, I can attest to this. Hoboken was the best, until the 2nd kid came and the first was going to start school. You ever look at the performance of those city schools? God Bless any parent that wants to blaze the trail of improvement in those hell holes. The alternative is you pay the sould crushing property tax AND the private school tuition. On top of the over-priced 2BR condo you bought on Monroe St next to the light rail…have fun.

  22. 3b says:

    Fast the average age for marriage for both males and females has been increasing I believe it’s 30 now for males. When they do get married it’s then another few years for many until the first kid comes. Many times it’s one and done. Both have to work today and living expenses including day care are high.

    I don’t think these young people want the 1.5 to 2 hour commute from the suburbs to the city today. My train is full of middle age people 40s and up. No millennial types on the train. When I first moved to my town there was a 5 year wait list for the swim club. Now they can’t give full time memberships away. They are struggling not to close. Why? The people with young kids those parents are both working. It’s a different world from when my wife and I had young kids. Radically different. And in a relatively short period of time.

  23. Yo! says:

    Monmouth County population in decline for first time since Census records began in late 1700s. Perhaps the first decline since human settlement began thousands of years ago. This decline is self inflicted. The Monmouth Mall owner want to build 700 apartments on the sign but can’t get building permits after years of trying.

  24. homeboken says:

    Geez, typos galore. My bad…

  25. 3b says:

    Home those are fair points but many will and are taking a chance with the schools and as the original population gets pushed out the schools improve. Plus with people getting married and having kids later 30s and 40s and even 50s you won’t see the massive outflow to the suburbs like I was part of in the 80s.

  26. 3b says:

    Yo I know people in the Marlboro/Manalapan area the commute to the city is tough.

  27. I don’t think these young people want the 1.5 to 2 hour commute from the suburbs to the city today. My train is full of middle age people 40s and up.

    I’m one of those middle age people in their 40s on the train and I don’t want the commute either. I currently trying out working from home for 3 days out of the week to see how it goes. If I don’t get stir crazy after a few months (say Nov) I’m only going to head in if its absolutely necessary

  28. homeboken says:

    3B – Since when have their been 20 somethings living in the burbs and commuting via train? This is not some new phenomenon you all have figured out. Young people live in city areas when single, that is not news.

    I state only from personal experience – The option was stay in Hoboken and fork over 750k-$1.2 mm for a decent sized 2BR. Property taxes north of $20k and schools that are some of the worst in the state. At some point, I crossed the tipping point. It’s time to accept that I need to sacrifice and do the commute so the family can have space, schools and community to be a part of.

    I am lucky, in that my wife does not work. So that allows be the option to work late and travel when needed. But I also work from home 2 days per week (doing so right now) and I can take my kids to school and attend some games/practices. It’s not perfect but it is light-years better than the Hoboken option.

  29. 3b says:

    Home since when? We were all in our mid to late 20s in the 80s with one or two kids already and for the most part stay at home wives. You have a good situation and you can do what you are doing on one income many perhaps most of these young people today cannot. Plus one income today comes with its own risks.

    My friends and family and neighbors friends in town we are all done with child raising and college etc it’s a different world and a tougher world for the young people today however you define the term young.

  30. grim says:

    I personally believe what you are seeing now is a stubbornness, reluctance and unwillingness by the baby boomers in local political leadership positions, as well as similarly minded voters, to accept this demographic change as real, and actually happening, and not just some minor unexpected blip in the status quo.

    “Same as it ever was” seems to be the mantra this bloc feels is the appropriate response. We will not change, we will not accept demographic shifts, this is how we lived, this is how we will continue to live. To hell with anyone that thinks otherwise.

  31. grim says:

    Great example, see the Wayne master plan posted the other day, the one written in 1994.

  32. Yo! says:

    Grim I live in one of these towns. Two train stations, everybody who moves there works in the city. None of the local politicians works in city, all are born and raised in town or moved out of city during days in 1970s. Will not permit new apartments near one train station. Say it is “out of character” even though there are numerous 1930s era apartment buildings surrounding train station already. Bike racks fill up by 7am, politicians won’t add more even though there is plenty of space. At second station in bikeable 100% residential neighborhood, they refuse to add a single bike rack.

    Fortunately, proximity to city and good schools mean the town will thrive in spite of lousy politicians. The outer suburbs aren’t as lucky.

  33. Fast Eddie says:

    3b,

    Every house in my neighborhood that gets sold is purchased by a young couple with young kids. I sat on my porch last night and kids were biking up and down and young couples were walking with a little one next to me and another in a stroller. As for the train, half are millennials and half or older. I’m not sure what you’re seeing but I’m not seeing the same.

  34. 3b says:

    Grim I agree. And I have been saying it for some time now. And people in my age group think I am crazy! I get it. I see it. And I understand it’s not a blip but a fundamental change or shift. And I am a tail end baby boomer.

  35. Fast Eddie says:

    next to me = next to them

  36. Yo! says:

    Grim 10:34, what is “the special character” of Wayne mentioned in the letter? Give some credit to Montclair officials for throwing open the town to multifamily development.

  37. grim says:

    Pretty much all of the eastern side of Monmouth has been staunchly anti-development wealthy communities, no?

  38. grim says:

    what is “the special character” of Wayne mentioned in the letter?

    I think it refers to being white.

    Same reason full-day kindergarten won’t pass. Most of the older residents believe that it will attract the colored people from Paterson, so by voting no they are protecting their community.

    I’m only saying that because some old guy said it to me at the poll.

  39. chicagofinance says:

    So stunningly good…..
    grim says:
    May 31, 2018 at 6:56 am
    Quite possibly the best NY Post cover ever?

    Kim Thong Un?

  40. 3b says:

    Fast sorry I am not seeing that. And I am in Bergen County blue ribbon town. What you are describing sounds like a scene from a by gone era. I don’t know how you are defining young today perhaps mid 30s to 40s.

    I work from home two days a week and when the weather is nice take a run on my lunch hour. The park I pass used to be full in late morning early afternoon in the summer with moms and kids back in my day. My wife was there or down at the swim club. The park is almost empty now. I don’t know how you see the opposite when all the stats are pointing otherwise. My oldest is turning 30 and he has been going to multiple weddings this past year. All are in the 30 to 32 age group. He will be following down the aisle next Spring. I have asked when do you think these guys will be having kids and the answers range from eventually, at some point, 5 years, need to save more, paying off student loans etc.

    As for the train I am on the Pascack Valley line and there is no way that train is half millenial, half middle age. When it pulls into Hoboken and it dumps us off with all the other trains the people male and female are all overwhelming middle age.

  41. chicagofinance says:

    How much of that shift in the red line showers daily with potable water?

    grim says:
    May 31, 2018 at 10:23 am
    Monmouth, Ocean & Middlesex Population since 1970:

    http://njrereport.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2018/05/Screen-Shot-2018-05-31-at-10.21.59-AM.png

  42. chicagofinance says:

    All the shift in Hoboken has done is delay the inevitable. I lived there so I can say as much. You used to need to leave by the time you were 30, but it has aged out. You can delay having kids and you need to get out of dodge by the time your kids are 4-8 years old. It means that you can move out to the burbs in your early 40’s if need be. You’ll see. We are not quite there yet.

    Brooklyn and Hudson county is not a quality of life question. It is simply a use of resources. Why piss away all the money? There is so much to enjoy…….

    homeboken says:
    May 31, 2018 at 9:58 am
    3B – Since when have their been 20 somethings living in the burbs and commuting via train? This is not some new phenomenon you all have figured out. Young people live in city areas when single, that is not news.

    I state only from personal experience – The option was stay in Hoboken and fork over 750k-$1.2 mm for a decent sized 2BR. Property taxes north of $20k and schools that are some of the worst in the state. At some point, I crossed the tipping point. It’s time to accept that I need to sacrifice and do the commute so the family can have space, schools and community to be a part of.

    I am lucky, in that my wife does not work. So that allows be the option to work late and travel when needed. But I also work from home 2 days per week (doing so right now) and I can take my kids to school and attend some games/practices. It’s not perfect but it is light-years better than the Hoboken option.

  43. Fast Eddie says:

    3b,

    We’re seeing things quite differently.

  44. chicagofinance says:

    Monmouth County is probably one of the strongest areas to live in the state. Most of the concerns rise to the level of bellyaching. The vast majority of the area is very Republican. As a result, it is almost uniformly fiscally responsible. The taxes are bad, but considering what is happening in so many other places, they are extremely reasonable. The concerns are more around empty office space, weak retail environment, declining school age population, and lack of entry level employment for 20 somethings. However, these are not intractable issues. There hasn’t been a groundswell of support for change, because there is no crisis.

    I think the concern for people is that for all the strengths of the area, the roads should be paved in gold and everything should have an Asbury Park level of trendiness and funkiness. Everyone’s kids should be able to get a cheap apartment and have a great job.

    People around here are too average……they need to grow up is all.

    Yo! says:
    May 31, 2018 at 9:51 am
    Monmouth County population in decline for first time since Census records began in late 1700s. Perhaps the first decline since human settlement began thousands of years ago. This decline is self inflicted. The Monmouth Mall owner want to build 700 apartments on the sign but can’t get building permits after years of trying.

  45. Fast Eddie says:

    As for these young couples, they’re in the 30s to around 40 that are buying. Hoboken and JC is for kids. When they save enough and pay off debt, they’re out of there. I don’t agree that the suburbs are dead. They said this 30 years ago, too. People want to relax and breathe on the weekend. And if telecommuting is the trend, then why do I want to live in an urban area when I can wake up to peace and quiet?

  46. chicagofinance says:

    Give it 10 years…..they will move to NC, SC, FL with their NJ pensions and post-retiree healthcare benefits.

    grim says:
    May 31, 2018 at 10:26 am
    I personally believe what you are seeing now is a stubbornness, reluctance and unwillingness by the baby boomers in local political leadership positions, as well as similarly minded voters, to accept this demographic change as real, and actually happening, and not just some minor unexpected blip in the status quo.

    “Same as it ever was” seems to be the mantra this bloc feels is the appropriate response. We will not change, we will not accept demographic shifts, this is how we lived, this is how we will continue to live. To hell with anyone that thinks otherwise.

  47. chicagofinance says:

    Yep….. especially if you can cash in your NYC-RE condo gains in a cheaper market.

    Fast Eddie says:
    May 31, 2018 at 11:09 am
    As for these young couples, they’re in the 30s to around 40 that are buying. Hoboken and JC is for kids. When they save enough and pay off debt, they’re out of there. I don’t agree that the suburbs are dead. They said this 30 years ago, too. People want to relax and breathe on the weekend. And if telecommuting is the trend, then why do I want to live in an urban area when I can wake up to peace and quiet?

  48. grim says:

    NYC suburbs aren’t dying, but they are changing. There will be plenty of places that hold out against change, and have wealthy enough residents to pay for it. These towns will become even more expensive as times go on.

    Thing is, there are tons of mid-tier towns that think they can hold the line.

    They can’t.

    Short Hills, they have the resources to hold the line.

  49. chicagofinance says:

    There are people that get it and people that don’t.

    I have a client who lived in a pre-war co-op building on UES. First bought a 2BR. Then bought the 1BR next door, and then added the studio on the other side. Started in 2004. Suddenly out of the blue he sold it last year. I was incredulous? I thought he was done with a permanent solution.

    He said, I saw the new millennial move-up buyer in the city. They don’t have the same classic tastes. The law firm partner/senior banker millennial type wants amenities, a certain layout etc. A lot of it is superficial, but they are very hard wired. My client saw the writing on the wall and said GTFOOH. Still surprised, but it is very illustrative.

  50. I have to say that my experience matches 3b’s. I should also note that, after much moving around, I bought the house I grew up in from my parents so I know the town very well and what it was like from the 70s through today. Of course 3b and my self could be in towns that are demographic outliers

  51. grim says:

    Every house in my neighborhood that gets sold is purchased by a young couple with young kids. I sat on my porch last night and kids were biking up and down and young couples were walking with a little one next to me and another in a stroller. As for the train, half are millennials and half or older. I’m not sure what you’re seeing but I’m not seeing the same.

    Every time I have a conversation about changing demographics, someone inevitably says this.

    I show them data that shows they are wrong, and refuse to accept it.

  52. grim says:

    Sure, there are tons of new couples and new kids. Yes, there are plenty of strollers.

    But, instead of the 900 new kids we used to see every year, we’re only seeing 550, and the decline does not appear to be leveling off, in 10 more years it might be 250, and what then?

    Are there new kids in stroller? Yeah, sure, but it’s down to nearly half the number from just 10 years ago.

  53. Juice Box says:

    I will be gone out of Hoboken 5 years this week!

    So far only two families I know with young kids are staying, that is out of hundreds of people I knew who have lived there from the late 1990s through 2013. Before that I did the Friends thing in NYC…..

  54. Mike S says:

    Inner ring vs outer ring suburbs is a very important concept.

    Inner Ring will continue to grow in value + population
    Outer Ring will continue to decline in both

  55. grim says:

    Outer ring is clear right now.

    Sussex, Hunterdon, Warren.

    Maybe Western Morris, Southern Somerset.

    They are already all seeing massive shifts.

    Sussex is now one of the biggest areas of foreclosures in NJ. #2 in NJ behind Salem. It’s now worse than CAMDEN.

  56. leftwing says:

    9:15a/9:18a, grim, nails it.

    Fast, Home, et al…..IMO the reason for the suburbs has disappeared. The glue is gone. Yes, there are exceptions in certain towns, or in parts or cliques of other towns, but the broad based yet tight knit community that the suburbs nursed and represented is gone.

    I’m closer in demographic to 3b, yet only moved to the burbs in 2003. Even by then the ‘whole community’ was gone. Kids weren’t pulling out street hockey nets and playing Saturday all day long. Or spending entire evenings at other families’ houses. Everyone was ‘fracturing’ going a multitude of separate ways to specific, personal non-neighborhood interests.

    I see it with my adult child. Yes, he related very much to his community but equally to all the outside interests he had away from the neighborhood. The community tie was especially strong, as he grew up in a small, home rule town of less than 10k residents and only 4 square miles. Yet it was no stronger for him than his outside interests.

    And this fracturing that I saw beginning 15 years ago was before social media (hell, before smart phones) which has moved the concept of ‘community’ from a single specific location to anywhere you want to find it from anywhere you are located. Massive dilution of community ties.

    Stated simply as a parent, if your child’s social time is on a piece of glass or by way of a 30 minute car ride to a different group of children, why do I need to be sitting in a suburb?

  57. leftwing says:

    Chi, 11:12a. Where did move to?

  58. grim says:

    Extracurricular obsession has destroyed childhood, really.

  59. Fast Eddie says:

    Sure, there are tons of new couples and new kids. Yes, there are plenty of strollers.

    But, instead of the 900 new kids we used to see every year, we’re only seeing 550, and the decline does not appear to be leveling off, in 10 more years it might be 250, and what then?

    Are there new kids in stroller? Yeah, sure, but it’s down to nearly half the number from just 10 years ago.

    Okay, so I’m not seeing things then. So, what’s going to happen? It goes to zero? Upper Bergen towns become Garfield and Paterson before going back again? And the people eventually buying these houses are doing so without kids? What’s the point then? a 4/2 place for what? It’s contradictory.

  60. The Original NJ ExPat says:

    Romneycare has been working for 12 years now.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Massachusetts_health_care_reform

  61. Blue Ribbon Teacher says:

    Had to drive through Livingston. Saw a Sue Adler sign on the lawn of a crappy house.

  62. 3b says:

    Fast I don’t recall anyone saying 30 years ago that the suburbs were dying. We could not wait to get out as we saw one neighborhood after another decline and this was the Bronx, Brooklyn, Queens where all my friends came from everyone went to either Bergen, Westchester or Rockland Co.s. Ironically enough there are still a few neighborhoods left in the Bronx that are still good 30 years later. We were not confident at the time that they would last.

  63. Fast Eddie says:

    I grew in Jersey City so maybe I see things differently. I feel like I live in Mayberry now. But it still begs the question; if these leafy suburbs go to sh1t, where does everyone go?

  64. Mike S says:

    In the outer rings – home prices keep dropping – boomers move out of state or to cheaper locations – new people will move in, but at a much lower price, the buyer pool is much smaller, homes sit on the market longer, etc.

  65. grim says:

    Cost of living does not go down, quality of life does not go up.

    Taxes in the outer ring suburbs will rise to stratospheric levels. We’ll see $40,000-50,000 cost per student numbers in the “suburbs” in our lifetimes, especially in the outer ring as these places cling to home rule. They will keep schools open and fully staffed for 80 kids, and will NEVER consolidate.

    At the same time, they’ll reminisce about when Hackensack or East Rutherford was a little town, can you believe it? I can’t believe it. A 30 floor building? Who could have ever imagined.

  66. The Original NJ ExPat says:

    And small screen obsession. My kids rarely use the family room with the big (and only) TV. If they do, they’re still staring at their small screens. If the focus of your life is 9 inches in front of your face you probably don’t need a half acre and a lawn.

    Extracurricular obsession has destroyed childhood, really.

  67. Yo! says:

    Wayne Township Public Schools

    2008
    8,799 students, 1,235 full time equivalent district employees

    2017
    7,963 students, 1,438 full time equivalent district employees

  68. grim says:

    If the focus of your life is 9 inches in front of your face you probably don’t need a half acre and a lawn.

    If this doesn’t bring JJ out of the woodwork, nothing will.

  69. grim says:

    Yep.

    We are approaching $20,000 per student in Wayne.

    Yet we can’t afford full day Kindergarten.

  70. The Original NJ ExPat says:

    Rich move into the city, Section 8 housing comes to a block near you.

    But it still begs the question; if these leafy suburbs go to sh1t, where does everyone go?

  71. grim says:

    Rich move into the city, Section 8 housing comes to a block near you.

    Nah, I don’t see this happening. There is no real precedent for it, the logistics are nearly impossible. The economics don’t make sense, as you basically have the state paying it’s own egregious property taxes. Never happen. Don’t mean it won’t be tried, but it won’t go mainstream.

    More likely, you see a block of 8 homes torn down, a 45 unit building goes up with parking, a concierge, and 6 low-income units on the first floor next to the exhaust. $3,500 a month for a 2 bedroom, too.

  72. Mike S says:

    We will see a lot more of this: https://www.buzzbuzzhome.com/us/annin-lofts

    They are building this near where I live, it is almost done.

  73. grim says:

    100 people come out to argue that a school with 85 kids shouldn’t be merged.

    Wait until 200 people show up to argue that a school with 45 kids needs a complete remodel to the tune of $25,000,000. The same 200 people that will argue that a condo development is a detriment to their way of life.

    You think I’m kidding. You’ll see it.

  74. grim says:

    Wow, 112 units in Annin, that’s amazing.

    That’s where the flags that are on the moon were made.

    Back when we made things here, now we buy our flags from China.

  75. The Original NJ ExPat says:

    When Obama won in 2008, who here would have found it believable that the next Democratic candidate would HQ their campaign in Brooklyn? I think the honest answer would be no, especially if you knew who it would be.

    I think baby boomer tip-toeing out of their BC train towns might turn into a stampede toward the door resulting in something new we haven’t seen in a long while…supply of nice houses exceeding demand.

  76. Provocateur says:

    3b,
    With more women nesting and having kids over the age of 35, prepare for more Downs Syndrome, or maybe just more genetic testing.
    http://www.ds-health.com/risk.htm
    Do 40 year olds make better parents of 3 year olds than 30 year olds?
    Anyway, this appears to be mostly a white, middle-upper class issue.
    Other groups start churning out the babies wherever and whenever it’s physically possible.

  77. grim says:

    When Obama won in 2008, who here would have found it believable that the next Democratic candidate would HQ their campaign in Brooklyn?

    Not very surprising, a lot changed with the male Clinton, rock the vote, I didn’t inhale, the whole zeitgeist at the time. Obama was a little bit square compared to Bill.

  78. The Original NJ ExPat says:

    Check out the high end properties available right now in Glen Rock. Sure a lot of them are over-priced, but you don’t usually see that much inventory in Glen Rock. Maybe somebody can correct me. gary/fast – doesn’t your brother live there?

  79. grim says:

    Regarding inventory, from Otteau:

    Shifting to the supply side of the equation, inventory remains restricted, which is limiting choices for home buyers. The number of homes being offered for sale today in New Jersey has fallen to its lowest point since 2005, having declined by 3,200 (-7%) over the past year. This is also 44% less than the amount of homes (32,000 fewer) on the market compared to the cyclical high in 2011. Today’s unsold inventory equates to just 3.7 months of sales (non-seasonally adjusted), which is lower than one year ago, when it was 4.2 months.

    Currently, all of New Jersey’s 21 counties have less than 8.0 months of supply, which is a balance point for home prices. Middlesex County has the strongest market conditions in the state with just 2.5 months of supply, followed by Union, Essex, Hudson, Passaic, Monmouth, Mercer and Burlington Counties, which all have fewer than 3.5 months of supply. The counties with the largest amount of unsold inventory (5 months or greater) are concentrated in the southern portion of the state including Cumberland (5.0), Atlantic (5.9), Salem (6.1) and Cape May (6.5), however, these counties have shown vast improvement and are exhibiting strengthening conditions.

  80. Yo! says:

    School enrollment can change a lot faster than overall population. In Sussex County’ most populous municipality, Vernon, population is down 10% with school enrollment minus 40%. After years of study, Vernon decided to keep all 6 schools operating with no layoffs.

  81. grim says:

    On sales:

    After home sales recorded a 6% retraction in March, New Jersey recorded more than 11,000 purchase contracts during the month of April equating to a 7% increase compared to the same month last year. As a result, the number of year-to-date purchase contracts (January-April) in New Jersey is up marginally by 1%, or roughly 425 contracts. While misinformation about the newly implemented tax reform is partially to blame, statewide housing inventory is also holding back sales, especially for homes priced below $400,000 where there is only 3 months of supply.

    While the number of year-to-date home sales has increased by 1% overall, that is not the case for all price ranges. Contract activity for homes priced under $400,000 has declined by 1% due to supply shortages, with unsold inventory having dropped by 15% year-to-date. At the opposite end of the spectrum, contract activity for luxury priced homes over $2.5-Million has increased by 15%, which is somewhat misleading, given the smaller sample size of sales within this price point.

  82. grim says:

    $400k-600k sales are up 6% year to date, year over year.
    $600k-1m sales are up 4% year to date, year over year.

    Market is fairly strong right now.

  83. 3b says:

    Fast I have been asking the reverse of your question. What happens to all these newly gentrified urban areas in nyc and Jersey City Harrison Hoboken when all the young people up and leave and move to the suburbs that some people expect to happen. Do they then become new Patersons and Garfield’s?

  84. Yo! says:

    In late 1990s, a professor said to me about Hudson County, “there will never be enough rich kids to fill the new buildings.” Moral of the story is these housing trends can run for many decades.

  85. Fast Eddie says:

    So, the school population is declining in the ‘burbs and the millennials are moving out of Brooklyn, JC and Hoboken once the 2nd kid arrives, do I have it right? But they’re not moving to the ‘burbs, correct? And I watched strollers go up and down the street but they’re sort of not strollers even though they are and these kids I see on the train are not really kids, per say. Got it.

  86. leftwing says:

    Grim hits it again. And the more affluent, compact towns will be able to build economic walls around themselves. As I’ve said before, Queens expanding to this side of the Hudson. If you want to see your future get on the LIE at Exit 32 and drive west.
    Short Hills = Forest Hills. The balance of the areas, multi-family housing, more density.

    And please understand, this outcome yields continually rising RE values. Deteriorating quality of life by most measures, but rising values.

    “At the same time, they’ll reminisce about when Hackensack or East Rutherford was a little town, can you believe it? I can’t believe it. A 30 floor building? Who could have ever imagined.”

  87. Fast Eddie says:

    Comedian Samantha Bee called White House senior adviser and first daughter Ivanka Trump a “feckless c***” on her TBS show “Full Frontal”

    This acceptable because this person is one of “them.”

  88. The Original NJ ExPat says:

    Something is happening. Look at this data for Glen Rock and directly adjacent Ridgewood. What you’ll notice is that they are very comparable except Ridgewood has more than TWICE as many housing units as Glen Rock:

    http://www.towncharts.com/New-Jersey/Housing/Ridgewood-village-NJ-Housing-data.html

    GSMLS reports 49 units for sale, all of them over $450K, in Ridgewood.
    GSMLS reports 39 units for sale, 37 of them priced over $450K, in Glen Rock.

    If memory serves me right, I think that is an above average amount of inventory in Glen Rock. I would say less than 20 properties would be around average, and that would certainly fall in line with Ridgewood’s numbers.

  89. The Original NJ ExPat says:

    Alpine, Closter = Sands Point

    Short Hills = Forest Hills.

  90. LurksMcGee says:

    Are you guys essentially saying that the demographic trend is just a shift? As in, people had kids in bulk around 24-29 and we should expect bulk from 33-38? That might explain the dips in the enrollment as we wait for it to catch up.

    OR

    Are you guys saying that people are having less kids (1 n done?) and less demand for space?

  91. 30 year realtor says:

    Fast Eddie said:
    “I grew in Jersey City so maybe I see things differently. I feel like I live in Mayberry now. But it still begs the question; if these leafy suburbs go to sh1t, where does everyone go?”

    What does go to sh1t mean to you? Come on Eddie just say what you really mean.

  92. leftwing says:

    Problem with these demographic trends is they take forever to realize and to make serious money you need to be in early.

    It’s a no-brainer certain parts of Newark will gentrify. When? Who the fcuk knows…. I would argue the same was true for Asbury…that only took, what, 30 years?

    I’ve told the story before of a lawyer client who bought a massive parcel in Jersey City, mid-80s. Not the cheapest tract even then (Newport was under development, Hamilton Park already hot). Would have paid off for him, well, on a nominal basis had he been able to hold a non-income producing piece of speculative property 20 years….haven’t benchmarked it against the market….

  93. leftwing says:

    IMO if there is a play for the middle of the road 1%er find what you think will be the next hot area and get some income producing properties. Hard to find in NJ with any reasonable return.

  94. leftwing says:

    Fcuk it……..was trying to post my strategy for a LT demographic play can’t get it through the blacklist. Changed every o=0, i=1, still doesn’t work. Five lines…….

    Was there a blacklist update recently? past few days I’ve tried maybe a dozen posts, six kicked back…..

  95. Blue Ribbon Teacher says:

    Problem with these demographic trends is they take forever to realize and to make serious money you need to be in early.

    Or you could just open a business there once it gets hot. I have a friend who opened up a shop in Asbury well after the revival.

  96. leftwing says:

    ^^^^^and that goes through first try…..JFC

  97. Blue Ribbon Teacher says:

    Do 40 year olds make better parents of 3 year olds than 30 year olds?

    Based on what I’m seeing, 40 year olds are more likely to mail it in. They have zero experience and less energy. I watch parents of 3 & 4 mail it in on the youngest all of hte time. Your 20s is when you are biologically able to deal with kids because you have all the energy in the world.

  98. Nomad says:

    What happens to places like SO and Maplewood? Does their ok schools and proximity to the city and relative value compared to Millnurn, Short Hills and Summit mean more mass affluent go to the second tier train towns and drive up values or are the schools and high taxes going to deteriorate long term SFH values in these towns?

    Side note, new condos in Madison near train seems to be commanding big prices, 700k for 1br/1ba and 1M for 2 br/ba. crazy.

  99. 3b says:

    Fast I think you might be taking it a little personal. You had your house search and you found your Mayberry as you say. Only problem is Mayberry is gone. My generation of parents were the last of the lots of stay at home Moms.

    Your new to your town I have lived in mine for 30 years and raised my family there. The change is real. I see it. I can compare to what it was you can’t. As for my train I have been taking it for 30 years, you have not. Another sign back in the day Moms would come to pick up Dad from the train just like the wonderful 1950s my own wife did it with my kids in tow. It’s rarely seen today when I get off the train.

    Take a look around when you are in Hoboken Terminal tonight and if you are honest with yourself you will acknowledge it’s predominantly middle age. Same on your train.

  100. grim says:

    I haven’t updated the blacklist in a while, but I just removed some stuff.

    Easy rule of thumb, if it even remotely appears to be some kind of fashion brand or luxury item, it’s going to be blacklisted.

  101. Blue Ribbon Teacher says:


    Plus with people getting married and having kids later 30s and 40s and even 50s you won’t see the massive outflow to the suburbs like I was part of in the 80s.

    http://www.health.com/pregnancy/brigitte-nielsen-pregnant-safe?scrlybrkr=d5ba3a88

  102. grim says:

    Here is my forecast for Central Bergen.

    Ridgewood, Waldwick, Midland Park, Glen Rock – significant increases in density, condos, etc. Think slightly more upscale, ritzier downtowns. Taller buildings, big focus around transit.

    Elmwood Park, Fair Lawn, Paramus, Elmwood Park, Garfield, Lodi, Saddle Brook – same as above but with regards to density, but not upscale, higher levels of urbanization. Lots of unstructured infill.

    Hackensack, Lodi, Teterboro, Bogota – Go full urban, Hackensack the obvious central point.

    Hohokus & North – I think these will be suburban holdouts, but likely will see larger townhouse/condo infill.

  103. Bystander says:

    It must be great that every millenial will be paid $150k a year and marry a spouse that makes $150k a year as well. This way that they can afford to buy that dream 900K two bedroom condo in JC, raise two kids, shop gourmet, pay student loan debt, pay for daycare, and save for private schools. Glad most of them fall into this bucket.

    Seriously, this is a bubble. People making double on Brooklyn and Hoboken purchases have young kids being fooled into thinking urban investment is ‘can’t miss’. The kids have no idea what they will want in ten years but their JC condo will triple…wink wink Bar hopping gets old and you get older and uglier. F-in top end millenials are approaching 40. I don’t care what generation they are part of but a 40 year old will learn they are not young, hip or cool especially when 23 year olds think they are grandpa. They will then want to move out with older folks in burbs. I live in Fairfield, CT which offers a pretty downtown, great shopping, good restaurants, great schools, a music venue, beaches and parks. Unfortunately it is 75m ride to GCT and CT economy sucks. That is the bigger issue. Companies are making rash decisions to throw burbs aside to pander to these adult babies.

  104. Fast Eddie says:

    What does go to sh1t mean to you? Come on Eddie just say what you really mean.

    It means that I’m at the train station and they’re dealing bags of smack in a corner.

  105. NJDepartment says:

    Hope its a bubble or the appreciation stops and gets more sensible instead of 15% ..
    How in the world people are going to afford a house with 15% appreciation and 2-3% salary raise..

    Is this some magic where chinese, indians, russians are flocking to Us real estate all of a sudden in 2 years.. What are they doing with SFH purchase,, rent it ? leave it paying NJ tax??

    Why does if feel like we are in 2006 again.

  106. Bystander says:

    Example – my buddy is about 4 years younger than me. Our friendship has basically died on vine after 15 years bc I don’t whore my life, nor my kids, out to FB. He and his wife post 20 times a day showing their great hip kids living the life in Hoboken. 10 years ago, we used to so see 80s punk bands and other concerts with core group of people between ages 30-35 (at the time). I stopped for a few years when I moved to CT. He invited me out last year to see a show but I went more to see him and some old crew. When I arrived, it was me,him and two other 27 year olds that he met recently in Hoboken. Everyone else had moved or disinterested. Sorry if hanging with people 10 -12 years younger to keep up hip lifestyle is your thing then they can have it

  107. 3b says:

    Surprised Hackensack has not started yet. Although it is just an ugly dreary town. Absolutely dead at 6:00 in the evening. A lot of high rises though.

  108. nwnj says:

    That cop on the beach told that little girl “you’re about to get dropped”. Lol. Who says that? Cops who punch like girls apparently

  109. Yo! says:

    Clifton Kmart closing

  110. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Companies are indeed making rash decisions, but that’s how the economy booms and busts. Some things never change.

    My two cents…. Based on demographic patterns, if there is a bubble, it will be in these urban areas. Millennials are the biggest demographic group, their spending patterns in housing drove up the urban market. When their generation decides urban is no longer desirable, and it will happen when they hit the age, the bubble will burst in urban areas. The suburbs will then get their jump in prices as they become desirable to the millennial buying bloc.

    If the urban bubble pops, I don’t expect huge price drops. Just stagnation. Just bag holders waiting for the urban areas to become cool again to a large demographic group in the population.

    “Seriously, this is a bubble. People making double on Brooklyn and Hoboken purchases have young kids being fooled into thinking urban investment is ‘can’t miss’. The kids have no idea what they will want in ten years but their JC condo will triple…wink wink Bar hopping gets old and you get older and uglier. F-in top end millenials are approaching 40. I don’t care what generation they are part of but a 40 year old will learn they are not young, hip or cool especially when 23 year olds think they are grandpa. They will then want to move out with older folks in burbs. I live in Fairfield, CT which offers a pretty downtown, great shopping, good restaurants, great schools, a music venue, beaches and parks. Unfortunately it is 75m ride to GCT and CT economy sucks. That is the bigger issue. Companies are making rash decisions to throw burbs aside to pander to these adult babies.”

  111. joyce says:

    Grim, et al

    When the inner ring of suburbs turns more urban, where do you think they’ll be working? Mostly NYC or will north jersey ever start growing again?

    With more automation, outsourcing, offshoring, telecommuting, I realize people will still want to be in the best areas but how will they afford it?

  112. The Original NJ ExPat says:

    Seen any teenagers mowing lawns lately? What makes you think they will want to in 20 years? Way too much vibration to text at the same time.

  113. joyce says:

    Expat,
    I really don’t understand why you think it’s a teenager only thing. Whenever I am where people are sitting waiting for something (office waiting room, restaurant/bar, terminal), I see people of all ages staring at their phone.

  114. Provocateur says:

    Bystander,
    Makes sense if they are swingers, however.

    As for staring at screens, in theory they could be reading great books, essays, or poetry. But more likely they are reading disposable junk like this.

  115. The Original NJ ExPat says:

    joyce – because the teenagers haven’t entered the RE market yet or made their preferences known. When I was a kid teenagers mowed lawns and shoveled snow. I don’t see that anymore. They also knocked on doors to offer those services to others in exchange for money. I stopped seeing that 25 years ago. I’m doubting it’ll ever be an acquired taste for them.

    I’ll offer one more anecdotal data point. My cousins youngest daughter, late 20’s, gay with a partner, and homeowners. They just sold their home and went back to renting. She told her Mom she had no idea how much responsibility came with owning a home and it just wasn’t her thing.

    Expat,
    I really don’t understand why you think it’s a teenager only thing. Whenever I am where people are sitting waiting for something (office waiting room, restaurant/bar, terminal), I see people of all ages staring at their phone.

  116. 3b says:

    Disposable junk like this? Seems more like an intelligent back and forth between people. No arguing etc.

  117. grim says:

    NJ Sears Closings

    Kmart – Clifton/Passaic
    Sears – Lawrenceville
    Sears – Ocean
    Sears – Burlington

  118. The Original NJ ExPat says:

    We’ve already discussed how teenagers seem to not even want driver’s licenses anymore…cuts into glass-touching time. Why drive when you can touch glass while someone else drives you?

  119. The Great Pumpkin says:

    This individual will be poor their entire life. Go ahead, pay for someone to take care of the responsibility if you are too lazy to do it.

    “I’ll offer one more anecdotal data point. My cousins youngest daughter, late 20’s, gay with a partner, and homeowners. They just sold their home and went back to renting. She told her Mom she had no idea how much responsibility came with owning a home and it just wasn’t her thing.”

  120. The Great Pumpkin says:

    That’s what you do when you rent, you pay someone a profit for taking care of the house. That’s why renting will always cost more than owning. The only time renting is cheaper is when bubble pricing is at play, as the bubble pricing is not real, but artificially high.

  121. chicagofinance says:

    If I was Chinese or Russian, I would desperately be looking to send money out of those countries. The Desi’s in JC & Edison think that NJ is the t!ts…..

    NJDepartment says:
    May 31, 2018 at 2:43 pm
    Hope its a bubble or the appreciation stops and gets more sensible instead of 15% ..
    How in the world people are going to afford a house with 15% appreciation and 2-3% salary raise..

    Is this some magic where chinese, indians, russians are flocking to Us real estate all of a sudden in 2 years.. What are they doing with SFH purchase,, rent it ? leave it paying NJ tax??

    Why does if feel like we are in 2006 again.

  122. Bystander says:

    Pat,

    They are paying either way. When your condo maintenance fee become more than the mortgage, perhaps they will realize they are being r@ped by their maintenance crew for trimming that square green patch and a few bushes in their urban oasis.

  123. chicagofinance says:

    Moved into a rental building at 5th Ave across the Street from The Met.

    I think as soon as their daughter hits boarding school (2nd kid), they will reassess.

  124. Provocateur says:

    This is insane:
    A San Francisco intersection became a massive traffic jam when dozens of protesters blocked multiple Google buses with their bodies and a stack of tech-enabled share scooters. As Silicon Valley’s wealth continues to move into the city, longtime residents feel they are getting priced out of their homes.
    https://twitter.com/i/moments/1002220292205199363?cn=ZmxleGlibGVfcmVjc18y&refsrc=email
    Who actually complains about being priced out of their homes? Perhaps they are being priced out of renting someone else’s home, or being taxed out of their home.
    But I noticed from these people’s protest signs that they cannot even spell “valley”.

  125. chicagofinance says:

    sorry…responding to this

    leftwing says:
    May 31, 2018 at 11:43 am
    Chi, 11:12a. Where did move to?

  126. grim says:

    Murphy just created the most regressive tax ever.

    New Jersey’s Obamacare tax will disproportionately hit low and middle income New Jersey taxpayers:

    -78% of New Jersey households hit by the Obamacare mandate tax make less than $50,000 per year. According to the IRS, the Obamacare mandate tax hit 188,570 New Jersey families and individuals in the most recent year of available data. 146,910 of these taxpayers made less than $50,000 per year – 78 percent of those impacted by the mandate.

    -38% of New Jersey households hit by the Obamacare mandate tax make less than $25,000 per year. That’s 70,830 New Jersey households.

    -New Jersey households paid a total of $93,342,000 in Obamacare individual mandate taxes in the most recent year of available data.

  127. Provocateur says:

    “Seems more like an intelligent back and forth between people.”
    Yes, excluding a certain subset of the commenters.
    I’ve learned from many people’s perspectives over the last 10 years, which I’d otherwise not be aware of.
    On the other hand, in sum, social media just seems like intellectual junk food versus long-form, more serious long-form intellectual exercises which is where a lot of more lasting intellectual capital can be accumulated. Short-attention span distractions vs periods of extended effort and focus. I worry that people lose their ability and taste for that, particularly the young.

  128. Very Stable Genius says:

    @robreiner

    Babies taken from their mothers.
    Arpaio DeSouza get pardons.
    Slush funds to pay off adult stars.
    Tearing down free press and justice system.
    Lies flying out of his mouth like projectile vomit.
    He tries to bury Democracy in his criminal cesspool.
    Not gonna happen.
    VOTE!!

  129. Very Stable Genius says:

    @chrislhayes

    The president is sending an extremely clear signal to his confederates and associates with his pardons of politically connected convicts that they will get their reward if they stay strong.

  130. joyce says:

    I was referring to ALL your comments about teenagers ‘touching glass’.

    The Original NJ ExPat says:
    May 31, 2018 at 3:54 pm

  131. grim says:

    Hope Murphy didn’t already spend the anticipated revenue

  132. The Original NJ ExPat says:

    joyce – I don’t doubt that you and others like you don’t have the same addiction. I’m trying to be inclusive. I’m sure there are many feeble minded middle aged people who still have the under-developed mind and priorities of teenagers.

    Better go check to see if you are internet famous yet.

    I was referring to ALL your comments about teenagers ‘touching glass’.

  133. The Original NJ ExPat says:

    The Original NJ ExPat says:
    May 21, 2015 at 9:32 am
    I really know how to amuse myself. Using Notepad, Find/Replace and just a couple quick edits I just wrote this in less than 5 minutes:

    I don’t want to work
    I want to touch on the glass all day
    I don’t want to play
    I just want to touch on the glass all day

    Ever since I was a tiny boy
    I don’t want no candy
    I don’t need no toy
    I took a finger and my Mommy’s iPad
    I touch on that thing til I got
    Blisters on my hand because

    I don’t want to work
    I want to touch on the glass all day
    Yes, I do
    I don’t want to play
    I just want to touch on the glass all day
    That’s right

    When I get older they think I’m a fool
    The teacher told me I should stay after school
    She caught me touching on the desk with my hands
    But my clicks was so hot
    I made the teacher wanna dance
    And that’s why

    I don’t want to work
    I want to touch on the glass all day
    Hey, why not?
    I don’t want to play
    I just want to touch on the glass all day

    I don’t want to work
    I want to touch on the glass all day
    I don’t want to play
    I just want to touch on the glass all day
    Listen to this

    Every day when I get home from work
    I feel so frustrated
    The boss is a jerk
    And I get my fingers and my mini iPad
    And I touch on that screen, then touch myself bad
    Because

    I don’t want to work
    I want to touch on the glass all day
    I don’t want to play
    I just want to touch on the glass all day
    I can bang that drum

    I don’t want to work
    I want to touch on the glass all day
    I don’t want to play
    I just want to touch on the glass all day

    I don’t want to work
    I want to touch on the glass all day
    Hey, you wanna take a bang at it?
    I don’t want to play
    I just want to touch on the glass all day

    I don’t want to work
    I want to touch on the glass all day
    I don’t want to play
    I just want to touch on the glass all day
    I can do this all day

  134. The Original NJ ExPat says:

    Have to go watch my daughter’s soccer gamer right now, flip phone is in my pocket. You’ll have to call me if you need me, I don’t touch on the glass when I’m out and about.

    That way I can protect my family from the screen zombies.

  135. joyce says:

    Sorry to say Expat, but since JJ left, you’ve done a good job filling in for him posting: things with zero foundation; inane off topic (probably) exaggerated stories, and vulgar comments for no reason.

    The Original NJ ExPat says:
    May 31, 2018 at 5:52 pm
    joyce – I don’t doubt that you and others like you don’t have the same addiction. I’m trying to be inclusive. I’m sure there are many feeble minded middle aged people who still have the under-developed mind and priorities of teenagers.

    Better go check to see if you are internet famous yet.

    I was referring to ALL your comments about teenagers ‘touching glass’.

  136. joyce says:

    Precisely

    Provocateur says:
    May 31, 2018 at 4:34 pm
    “Seems more like an intelligent back and forth between people.”
    Yes, excluding a certain subset of the commenters.

  137. leftwing says:

    Power move. Leaving a family UES co-op to go rental in same neighborhood with a child still home.

  138. Libturd says:

    “Cost of living does not go down, quality of life does not go up.”

    Pura Vida

    I’ve been watching Annin go up. There’s a beautiful loft building (the original factory) and a gigantic cheap looking crap building with no set back from the Ave being built just East of it. I hate these greedy developers.

    You should see the builders remorse Pentagon going up here in Glen Ridge where 5 perfectly nice homes have been bought out and are being raised. This is the developers first attempt which will never pass our historic commission. I hope they fail them 100 times. This is all the result of corrupt government.

    https://photos.app.goo.gl/cNEXHXfTgKsUaL3H2

  139. Californicator says:

    4:34 the phone is now probably the single biggest bone of contention is any school that let’s kids have them in class. Let alone the transformation of social norms..

  140. Very Stable Genius says:

    @chrislhayes

    The only check for the pardon power is impeachment. That’s it.

  141. Libturd says:

    Moana is especially unhinged today? What’s wrong? Getting nervous about midterm elections?

  142. Libturd says:

    I’m still waiting for Pumps to explain how he expects the $200,000,000,000 worth of unfunded liabilities will be paid. What’s really scary is thinking about how large the entire liability both unfunded and funded is.

  143. grim says:

    You should see the builders remorse Pentagon going up here in Glen Ridge where 5 perfectly nice homes have been bought out and are being raised. This is the developers first attempt which will never pass our historic commission.

    Bought 5 homes to put up a condo building? Hmm.

    More likely, you see a block of 8 homes torn down, a 45 unit building goes up with parking, a concierge, and 6 low-income units on the first floor next to the exhaust. $3,500 a month for a 2 bedroom, too.

  144. grim says:

    Christ I was close.. Just needed to multiply by 2, even more aggressive than I would have thought.

    The project has been approved by the Glen Ridge Historic Preservation Commission and awaits approval from the council. It will have 98 units instead of the 125 that were originally proposed, with 15 affordable housing units.

  145. Libturd says:

    Crazy right?

    We have one of the toughest historic commissions in the state and for good reason. Hoping the builder gets taken out to the slaughterhouse over the use of REAL brick and other non-cheap looking materials. Heck, if your house has a slate roof, you can not go back to asphalt. Even porch renovations must past HC muster. The town smartly gave in to the developer in exchange for less density. There were no considerations made over appearance. This is going to be fun to watch.

  146. joyce says:

    “The [SEC] wants Jung to forfeit the money he made from the trades.”

    http://money.cnn.com/2018/05/31/news/companies/goldman-sachs-insider-trading/index.html

    Hoping another agency, maybe the FBI, strive for a real punishment.

  147. jcer says:

    Nomad, the SO/Maplewood market seems to be pretty hot. It seems like the marginal areas closer to downtown and closer to newark are developing towards more density. I’m seeing tons of renovations and what appear to be flippers. On the sue adler front I received a glossy brochure in the mail showing a closed $1.7m sale on a 3600sqft house. If that’s not a sign of a market top I don’t know what is. I mean upslope literally 600k sh*tboxes are selling for people to gut complete with 15k in taxes that post reno will be over 20.

    Libturd, I suspect most nicer suburban towns trend towards bending developers over a barrel. I also expect in a place like Glen Ridge, cheap materials aren’t going to fly. I’d suspect no matter what they need to spend to build the place they’ll make a bounty unless the market crashes.

  148. Libturd says:

    If you saw what these dumb kids are willing to pay in rent, they could construct the building out of Platinum and it would still turn a pretty dime. I have no idea what the costs are to build such a joint. But I know that one bedrooms rent for $3.5K and two bedrooms go for 4.5-5K. Studios are closer to 2.5K. So at 110 units with an average unit cost of 3.5K it’s about 4.5 million/year. What do you think it costs to build such a building?

  149. jcer says:

    Lib let due some back of the envelope math….

    110 units avg sqft including common spaces of 1300 sqft so, lets just round up, 150,000 sqft. Lets assume higher than average costs due to using union labor, higher soft and hard costs($230 psf is a fair number for a small time developer, national developers and bigger guys can drive this cost down), so lets say 35 million plus the land cost. After annual expenses assume $22psf net rent(not really sure how essex county suburbs tax rental projects but I think the property tax would knock a million dollars a year off the income), so the net rent roll is ~3m. Lets assume 7m in land acquisition cost, for an all in build of 42m or approximately a 7% net return before factoring in vacancy. Figure they borrowed 70%, CMBS at 5%, so they have a 2% float so figure about a 12% return on capital. Not bad not bad at all. If the developer is good they got the land for 4-5m, and build for 30m, try to sell it for a quick 20m in profit. The market value selling a property like like is over 50m once tenanted(probably 55-57m). It could work out but unless they can execute well it isn’t guaranteed and they probably need to play nice with the town, delays really cut into profits.

    Essex county property taxes and construction costs(town regulations, requirements, red tape all add to cost, time==money) essentially force the rent to be stratospheric. I’m still not sure who’s paying for these apartments, if I’m an apartment dweller might as well live in a city, the water front looks like a better deal because of MUCH lower property tax.

  150. jcer says:

    What’s really driving a lot of these projects is of 43m, 12.9m needs to be put up. These guys probably bought the land, did the leg work so are probably 4-5m in on the land. They brought in investors for a fixed return for the other 7m(lets say 7-8%) so on 5m hard money they are making a 20% return. There is so much money out there at the moment even if the economics are questionable people may still take the risk because so much of this is OPM.

  151. The Original NJ ExPat says:

    joyce – Perhaps parenting remorse? Kids grown, your relationships are reduced to touch, touch, touch on the glass, glass, glass?

    Sorry to say Expat, but since JJ left, you’ve done a good job filling in for him posting: things with zero foundation; inane off topic (probably) exaggerated stories, and vulgar comments for no reason.

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