Another Strong Spring Market

From the Otteau Group:

MarketNEWS May 31, 2018 Edition

NJ YTD Purchase Contracts Back Up

After home sales recorded a 6% retraction in March, New Jersey recorded more than 11,000 purchase contracts during the month of April equating to a 7% increase compared to the same month last year. As a result, the number of year-to-date purchase contracts (January-April) in New Jersey is up marginally by 1%, or roughly 425 contracts. While misinformation about the newly implemented tax reform is partially to blame, statewide housing inventory is also holding back sales, especially for homes priced below $400,000 where there is only 3 months of supply.

While the number of year-to-date home sales has increased by 1% overall, that is not the case for all price ranges. Contract activity for homes priced under $400,000 has declined by 1% due to supply shortages, with unsold inventory having dropped by 15% year-to-date. At the opposite end of the spectrum, contract activity for luxury priced homes over $2.5-Million has increased by 15%, which is somewhat misleading, given the smaller sample size of sales within this price point.

Shifting to the supply side of the equation, inventory remains restricted, which is limiting choices for home buyers. The number of homes being offered for sale today in New Jersey has fallen to its lowest point since 2005, having declined by 3,200 (-7%) over the past year. This is also 44% less than the amount of homes (32,000 fewer) on the market compared to the cyclical high in 2011. Today’s unsold inventory equates to just 3.7 months of sales (non-seasonally adjusted), which is lower than one year ago, when it was 4.2 months.

Currently, all of New Jersey’s 21 counties have less than 8.0 months of supply, which is a balance point for home prices. Middlesex County has the strongest market conditions in the state with just 2.5 months of supply, followed by Union, Essex, Hudson, Passaic, Monmouth, Mercer and Burlington Counties, which all have fewer than 3.5 months of supply. The counties with the largest amount of unsold inventory (5 months or greater) are concentrated in the southern portion of the state including Cumberland (5.0), Atlantic (5.9), Salem (6.1) and Cape May (6.5), however, these counties have shown vast improvement and are exhibiting strengthening conditions.

Demand for rental apartments continues to expand in NJ with statewide occupancy ratesbeing among the highest in the US. Statewide vacancy increased slightly from the prior quarter, rising by 10 basis points to 3.6%. The rise in vacancy is attributable to the rapid growth in pipeline supply, which has increased from 6,400 apartments in 2008 to 30,000 today. Nationally, the average vacancy rate increased by 20 basis points to 4.7%. Still, statewide and national vacancy rates remain well below their 2010 peak having fallen by 160 bp and 330 bp, respectively.

Consistent with national trends, the homeownership rate in New Jersey declined following the onset of the Great Recession. More recently however, the State’s homeownership rate has risen to 64.3% in 2018.Q1, due largely to increased market participation by Millennial homebuyers, which is favorable to housing development. Still, the homeownership rate at both the state and national levels have declined by 10% and 7% from their respective peaks. Because of this shift, there are approximately 231,000 additional renters in New Jersey.

The percentage of delinquent mortgage loans in New Jersey that are 90+ days past due fell by 10 basis points from the prior month, falling to 3.3%. Most of the nation has seen a decline in delinquency rates over the past year apart from storm-ravaged states like Florida and Texas whose delinquency rates have increased by 100% and 50%, respectively, over the past 6 months. Florida leads the nation with 5% of mortgages being 90+ days delinquent. Rounding out the list of states with the highest delinquency rates are New York (3.7%), New Jersey (3.4%), Louisiana (3.3%), Mississippi (3.3%), Maine (2.7%), Texas (2.6%) and Delaware (2.5%).

New Jersey foreclosure filings in 2017 recorded a decline (-5%) over the prior year, falling from 74,200 to 70,150. This is the second consecutive annual decline that the state has seen since 2010. Based upon year-to-date data (January-April), foreclosures are projected to decline further, falling by -8% in 2018, with filings estimated to be about 64,350. The greatest concentrations of mortgage delinquencies in New Jersey continue to be in the state’s urban and rural places, such as Warren and Atlantic Counties who lead the state in the ratio of foreclosure actions-to-housing units.

This entry was posted in Demographics, Economics, Employment, Foreclosures, Housing Recovery, New Jersey Real Estate. Bookmark the permalink.

137 Responses to Another Strong Spring Market

  1. Very Stable Genius says:

    @ianbremmer

    China has overtaken the US in “healthy life expectancy”: Chinese newborns with 68.7 years of healthy life, 68.5 years for American babies.

  2. Very Stable Genius says:

    @businessinsider
    Trump calls out ‘double standard,’ asks why not fire Samantha Bee for calling Ivanka a ‘c—‘

    .
    @thomas_violence
    I love little cultural differences, like how Americans are super offended by the word cunt but here in Australia we’re super offended by school children being slaughtered with automatic weapons

  3. grim says:

    Does anyone believe Chinese government published statistics?

  4. The Original NJ ExPat says:

    He has to be baiting the media with this comment, right? (POTUS knows the number by 4:30PM yesterday)

    @realDonaldTrump

    Looking forward to seeing the employment numbers at 8:30 this morning.

  5. grim says:

    Does anyone believe Trump government published statistics?

  6. grim says:

    Did futures skyrocket after that comment?

  7. No One says:

    Next, VSG will be retweeting headlines from The People’s Daily and The Daily Worker.
    In reward for his service as a useful idiot, he will be rewarded with a retirement on the commune.

  8. grim says:

    VSG is clearly colluding with communist China.

  9. Fast Eddie says:

    223,000 jobs

    3.8% unemployment @ historic low

    Thank you, President Trump!

  10. The Original NJ ExPat says:

    Assuming the 8:21 Twitter timestamp is correct:

    The ES (S&P 500 mini futures) did rise from 8:23 to 8:27 but…
    …the futures did not exceed the level the level of 8:16, 5 minutes before the tweet.

    I’m sure it will provide 12 hours of programming for MSNBC and CNN anyway.

    Did futures skyrocket after that comment?

  11. Fast Eddie says:

    The unemployment rate for black workers hit new record lows in May, the Labor Department’s Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Friday.

    Wages overall are up more than expected, too.

  12. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Called this strong labor market 5-6 years ago. What has me scratching my head, why isn’t the wage inflation as strong as it should be? Scratching my head.

  13. The Original NJ ExPat says:

    …and the ES futures dropped from at 8:30, not hitting pre-market highs until 20 minutes later at 8:50.

  14. Blue Ribbon Teacher says:

    Called this strong labor market 5-6 years ago. What has me scratching my head, why isn’t the wage inflation as strong as it should be? Scratching my head.

    Scratching your head? We told you wage inflation wasn’t coming and laid out the reasons why 100 times over.

  15. The Original NJ ExPat says:

    You don’t know the difference between U-6 and your own A-hole.

    Called this strong labor market 5-6 years ago.

  16. Blue Ribbon Teacher says:

    Does anyone believe Trump government published statistics?

    We shouldn’t put too much faith into any government published statistics.

  17. The Original NJ ExPat says:

    I called that Pumpkin would lie about calling today’s labor report 7-8 years ago.

  18. Blue Ribbon Teacher says:

    China has overtaken the US in “healthy life expectancy”: Chinese newborns with 68.7 years of healthy life, 68.5 years for American babies.

    I guess that dense smog running through their cities must be good for them?

  19. Fast Eddie says:

    Tax reform and deregulation!

    Trump is right again!

  20. The Original NJ ExPat says:

    Nostradamus practiced scrying; he would stare into a bowl of water or a “magic mirror” to see the future while he was in trance.

    I suspect that Pumps goes into his trances for seeing the future by slathering Vicks Vap-O-Rub on his balls, shoves a vibrat0r set on high up his ass, and stares at Anime videos on youtube.

  21. chicagofinance says:

    regardless of your analysis, it is completely unacceptable…….. speaks volumes about the guy

    The Original NJ ExPat says:
    June 1, 2018 at 8:57 am
    Assuming the 8:21 Twitter timestamp is correct:

    The ES (S&P 500 mini futures) did rise from 8:23 to 8:27 but…
    …the futures did not exceed the level the level of 8:16, 5 minutes before the tweet.

    I’m sure it will provide 12 hours of programming for MSNBC and CNN anyway.

    Did futures skyrocket after that comment?

  22. Libturd questioning the gender of Hillary's Cankle fluid. says:

    “I’m sure it will provide 12 hours of programming for MSNBC and CNN anyway.”

    Until a celebrity says something controversial, like, “Trump has man boobs.”

  23. chicagofinance says:

    Tweeting about the jobs report before it is released should have you hanging your head…… stunning lack of composure and ethics…… WITHSTANDING everything he has done in the past…

    Fast Eddie says:
    June 1, 2018 at 9:05 am
    Tax reform and deregulation!

    Trump is right again!

  24. chicagofinance says:

    I know it sound completely ridiculous, but in my book, the jobs Tweet is the worst thing he has ever done……. seriously……

  25. The Original NJ ExPat says:

    I was just answering grim’s question.

    regardless of your analysis, it is completely unacceptable…….. speaks volumes about the guy

  26. chicagofinance says:

    We have to trust this guy with security secrets for the country?

  27. joyce says:

    Expat,
    Put the glass down. Resist temptation. And using a keyboard is just a gateway drug.

  28. The Original NJ ExPat says:

    Remember when Howard Stern had a 7 second delay on terrestrial radio and someone in the other room decided when to dump the delay? Trump should have something/somebody like that monitoring his tweets.

  29. The Original NJ ExPat says:

    ^^^^ of course it would have to be AI. Anybody in a junior position like that would be distracted by their own text messages, right joyce?

  30. The Original NJ ExPat says:

    Pretty soon all keyboards, including desktop versions, will be designed to use thumbs only. Idiocracy, here we come.

    And using a keyboard is just a gateway drug.

  31. The Great Pumpkin says:

    It has hit a good portion of the workforce. Problem is that it hasn’t hit all. Low wage earners have seen significant wage inflation as well as a good portion of the skilled workforce. It will come, it’s inevitable.

    Blue Ribbon Teacher says:
    June 1, 2018 at 9:01 am
    Called this strong labor market 5-6 years ago. What has me scratching my head, why isn’t the wage inflation as strong as it should be? Scratching my head.

    Scratching your head? We told you wage inflation wasn’t coming and laid out the reasons why 100 times over.

  32. joyce says:

    About 1/3 of the comments are from you so far. I’d slow down if you you. You don’t want use up your glass touching daily allotted time too early. And you don’t want to act like Pumpkin (as I said previously).

  33. chicagofinance says:

    ? no it is not…..

    The Great Pumpkin says:
    June 1, 2018 at 9:24 am
    It has hit a good portion of the workforce. Problem is that it hasn’t hit all. Low wage earners have seen significant wage inflation as well as a good portion of the skilled workforce. It will come, it’s inevitable.

  34. The Original NJ ExPat says:

    don’t get your virtual knickers in knot, feckless joyce.

  35. Blue Ribbon Teacher says:

    It has hit a good portion of the workforce. Problem is that it hasn’t hit all. Low wage earners have seen significant wage inflation as well as a good portion of the skilled workforce. It will come, it’s inevitable.

    And it will always be below the cost of living until you balance trade.

  36. Libturd questioning the gender of Hillary's Cankle fluid. says:

    ” Trump should have something/somebody like that monitoring his tweets.”

    There is not a long enough delay!

  37. Provocateur says:

    Impeach him!, He said he was looking forward to a data release at 8:30! But, without a winking smiley face on the message is there a smoking gun? Tom Keene, for example, says the exact same thing about 10 times per day for the past several days. Maybe our crack team of blowhards can opinionate on this all day today in the studio – much cheaper than sending actual news-crews around the world to gather news about real things, and more popular too.

  38. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Yes, nominal wage growth has been pretty flat, but the bottom of the labor market has def seen wage growth as well as some skilled fields.

    Biggest problem here, the fed is raising rates to control inflation. They should stop raising rates till they see wage inflation hitting the nominal wages. Too bad they don’t give a damn about workers.

    chicagofinance says:
    June 1, 2018 at 9:28 am
    ? no it is not…..

  39. The Original NJ ExPat says:

    Lib – Being a tech guy, my mind immediately goes to, “Could that be true? Is there a way to accomplish that?”.

    Summer 1981 I had a night shift job at Dictograph in Florham Park where a shift of like three or four of us used to monitor both local and national alarms (hold-up, burglary, fire). It was kind of cool tech for back then. We had this one monitor, that sat on a shelf just above our individual monitors, the 3 of us sitting side-by-side watching it all night. When an alarm came in you said something like “I got that one” and “pulled” that line item alarm from the main screen which populated it full screen to your individual monitor. There it showed you the type of alarm and what you should do. For example,

    fire alarm – call the fire department directly.
    hold-up alarm – call the police directly.
    burglary alarm – call the homeowner and ask them if it is false and get their code.

    vis-a-vis Tweet monitoring: I was picturing a conference room full of communications workers doing the same with a big screen showing POTUS tweets as they come in. You’re right though, 7 seconds would not be enough.

    There is not a long enough delay!

  40. Libturd questioning the gender of Hillary's Cankle fluid. says:

    New DNC logo unveiled…

    SFW – https://bit.ly/2Hafifj

  41. Ottoman says:

    Better than ingesting lead water apparently.

    Blue Ribbon Teacher says:
    June 1, 2018 at 9:03 am
    China has overtaken the US in “healthy life expectancy”: Chinese newborns with 68.7 years of healthy life, 68.5 years for American babies.

    I guess that dense smog running through their cities must be good for them?

  42. The Original NJ ExPat says:

    BTW, one of the most common alarms back then: hold-up alarms at Quick-Checks and 7-Elevens in New Orleans. I found it kind of fascinating that some white, Jewish guy was holding up a 7-Eleven in the Big Easy and I was the one calling the local cops from NJ.

    I probably shouldn’t stereotype like that.

  43. Ottoman says:

    Communist China has lifted more people out of poverty than any capitalist jerkwater, including the US which is currently putting more of its own citizens into poverty, despite what your corporate overlords told you.

    grim says:
    June 1, 2018 at 8:44 am
    VSG is clearly colluding with communist China.

  44. joyce says:

    Since almost every comment you make contains an insult of some kind, you might want to check if yours are twisted.

    The Original NJ ExPat says:
    June 1, 2018 at 9:28 am
    don’t get your virtual knickers in knot, feckless joyce.

  45. The Original NJ ExPat says:

    I don’t think you give Trump enough credit though. I think he is the exact opposite of Occam’s razor.

    Two questions:

    1. How much air time does the MSM give to a great jobs report for this administration?
    2. How much air time will they give it today?

  46. The Original NJ ExPat says:

    If you want to go full conspiracy, maybe go the other way: Trump got powerful market makers to hold futures in check while he tipped the jobs report to spark MSM coverage.

  47. The Original NJ ExPat says:

    burned. good one, joyce.

    Since almost every comment you make contains an insult of some kind, you might want to check if yours are twisted.

  48. The Original NJ ExPat says:

    ^^^but it would have played funnier as, “I’m rubber, you’re glue…”

  49. 3b says:

    China could not lift its people out of poverty until it adopted a quasi capitalist system surely you understand that? And the West especially the USA is the primary reason they were able to do it as we ceded most of our manufacturing base to them. A communist system did not lift the Chinese out of poverty no communist system has and no communist system ever will.

  50. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Makes me sick that the Communist Chinese govt is providing more economic opportunity than the all mighty capitalist country of the USA.

    Ottoman says:
    June 1, 2018 at 9:46 am
    Communist China has lifted more people out of poverty than any capitalist jerkwater, including the US which is currently putting more of its own citizens into poverty, despite what your corporate overlords told you.

  51. Fast Eddie says:

    Ottoman,

    It’s free doughnut day today. Why don’t you and you’re weepy friends dry your eyes and go get one.

    https://www.cnbc.com/2018/06/01/national-donut-day-where-to-find-free-doughnuts-and-deals-this-friday.html

  52. Libturd questioning the gender of Hillary's Cankle fluid. says:

    “Communist China has lifted more people out of poverty than any capitalist jerkwater,”

    When you have a country made up of over a billion poor farmers, it’s not a terribly difficult task to take away their farmland and force them into factories reminiscent of the ones described by Sinclair at the turn of the 20th century. Only it’s not sausage they are making. It’s the device you are typing on!

    It’s probably a good thing Trump’s tariffs will help level the playing field and will not allow this abuse of cheap labor to continue untethered.

  53. The Original NJ ExPat says:

    Lib – LOL!!! Already stolen and posted on my FB timeline.

    New DNC logo unveiled…

    SFW – https://bit.ly/2Hafifj

  54. 3b says:

    Jeez pumps you will latch on to anyone for approval.

  55. The Original NJ ExPat says:

    Cliff Notes for Pumps, since he didn’t finish HS:
    “”I aimed at the nation’s heart but hit it in the stomach.”

    http://articles.chicagotribune.com/2006-05-21/features/0605210414_1_upton-sinclair-trust-free

    When you have a country made up of over a billion poor farmers, it’s not a terribly difficult task to take away their farmland and force them into factories reminiscent of the ones described by Sinclair at the turn of the 20th century. Only it’s not sausage they are making. It’s the device you are typing on!

    It’s probably a good thing Trump’s tariffs will help level the playing field and will not allow this abuse of cheap labor to continue untethered.

  56. The Original NJ ExPat says:

    That’s called wage deflation, dumb ass.

    The Great Pumpkin says:
    June 1, 2018 at 9:41 am
    Yes, nominal wage growth has been pretty flat

  57. Libturd questioning the gender of Hillary's Cankle fluid. says:

    “Communist China has lifted more people out of poverty than any capitalist jerkwater,”

    https://read.bi/2HbZSHj

  58. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Why don’t we do the same thing? Better question, why did our glorious capitalist class decide to cede most of our manufacturing away? Randians, any idea why the great capitalists decided to go this route?

    3b says:
    June 1, 2018 at 9:55 am
    China could not lift its people out of poverty until it adopted a quasi capitalist system surely you understand that? And the West especially the USA is the primary reason they were able to do it as we ceded most of our manufacturing base to them. A communist system did not lift the Chinese out of poverty no communist system has and no communist system ever will.

  59. The Original NJ ExPat says:

    A GED followed by a higher education may fill in some of these blanks for you Pumps. It’s never too late, no matter your heritage.

    Why don’t we do the same thing? Better question, why did our glorious capitalist class decide to cede most of our manufacturing away? Randians, any idea why the great capitalists decided to go this route?

  60. leftwing says:

    “The unemployment rate for black workers hit new record lows in May, the Labor Department’s Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Friday.”

    All time low since they started keeping that separate stat in 1972.

    The national Party would never go there (but should). Maybe the Orange One will….

    Huge reach out needed to this demographic by the Right…what have your leaders done for YOU lately? The Left playbook seems to be to reap their votes, improve their own personal situation, and move on.

    Both Clinton (at the time recall hailed as “America’s first Black President”) and Obama came to office dirt poor. And left at the top of the 1%.

    In that span – 8 years each – what did YOU get? Their kids got private school and Harvard/Yale. Where are YOUR children? You’re being used. Repeatedly over decades. Time to wake up and change your vote.

  61. leftwing says:

    VSG, Otto, and the rest of the Left…..

    Leave aside the moral equivalency. Forget distinctions without a difference.

    One question only.

    Samantha Bee. Gone or not?

    (Please, please, please TBS/liberal MSM, let her stay and defend her vigorously. Coverage just in the last 24 hours has likely increased turnout by 2-3 percentage points for the Right in the midterms…..)

  62. The Great Pumpkin says:

    The most highly compensated individuals in our economy sold out the entire population for a quick buck. Now do you see the danger of short term profits? These are the people Rand said are doing “God’s work” for the general population. These capitalists were highly compensated with the idea that they were making life better for everyone. Now it’s clear as day, they have been making it good for only themselves. This is why capitalism is dangerous. Capitalism works when the winners share, but it implodes when the winners take all and keep it for themselves.

    The Original NJ ExPat says:
    June 1, 2018 at 10:33 am
    A GED followed by a higher education may fill in some of these blanks for you Pumps. It’s never too late, no matter your heritage.

    Why don’t we do the same thing? Better question, why did our glorious capitalist class decide to cede most of our manufacturing away? Randians, any idea why the great capitalists decided to go this route?

  63. chicagofinance says:

    China is fascism and thought control that echos a Orwellian dystopia. Ottoman’s comment is the equivalent of saying we’ve ended world hunger by butchering several billion people……

    Libturd questioning the gender of Hillary’s Cankle fluid. says:
    June 1, 2018 at 9:58 am
    “Communist China has lifted more people out of poverty than any capitalist jerkwater,”

    When you have a country made up of over a billion poor farmers, it’s not a terribly difficult task to take away their farmland and force them into factories reminiscent of the ones described by Sinclair at the turn of the 20th century. Only it’s not sausage they are making. It’s the device you are typing on!

    It’s probably a good thing Trump’s tariffs will help level the playing field and will not allow this abuse of cheap labor to continue untethered.

  64. The Original NJ ExPat says:

    Samantha Bee would have been gone faster than Roseanne if she called called Chelsea Clinton or either Obama daughter feckless cunts following it up by saying any of the daughters should dress up in something tight and low cut to influence their fathers.

  65. leftwing says:

    I’ve always refrained from ad hominen attacks here, other than for one challenged poster whom I stopped bothering with late last year. But this one…..

    “Communist China has lifted more people out of poverty than any capitalist jerkwater, including the US…”

    That is literally one of the stupidest comments I have seen posted in decade on here. It screams “I am absolutely ignorant of the most basic educational elements of history, economics, and current affairs”. It is amazing that you come on here openly revealing your ignorance and hopefully you are not embarrassingly broadcasting that ignorance widely elsewhere by actually attaching your identity to it.

    Hey, dumbass, the only reason a bunch of subsistence farmers suppressed by one of the most brutal and closed regimes in history have had any economic improvement is because the US capitalist system generated such gains and wealth that it provided the excess demand and allowed for free trade through the openness of our society to enable modernization of the primitive conditions of the population of ‘Red’ China.

    My lord, go back to posting to the nj.com comments sections. Although even that low level of discourse is probably beyond your comprehension.

  66. Californicator says:

    Damn! You bastards are on fiiiiire today. Carry on

  67. Libturd questioning the gender of Hillary's Cankle fluid. says:

    Ignorant of how math works too.

  68. The Great Pumpkin says:

    So you are stating that the USA was able to get hundreds of millions of poor Chinese out of poverty, but was not able to do so for its own population. What’s up with that?

    How can the richest country this planet has ever seen be dealing with a huge problem with poverty?

    “Hey, dumbass, the only reason a bunch of subsistence farmers suppressed by one of the most brutal and closed regimes in history have had any economic improvement is because the US capitalist system generated such gains and wealth that it provided the excess demand and allowed for free trade through the openness of our society to enable modernization of the primitive conditions of the population of ‘Red’ China.”

  69. D-FENS says:

    The worst insult you can make here is to call someone a pumpkin.

  70. Libturd questioning the gender of Hillary's Cankle fluid. says:

    I’ll take American poverty over Chinese poverty any day of the week.

    As much as I like Chinese food. KFC tops it!

  71. The Great Pumpkin says:

    You are.

    The pension was robbed of over 40 billion dollars over a 20 year period. Now if you take avg investment return of 7 or 8% and compound it, how much money are we talking about? So I rest my case that the damn pension fund would not be a problem if they simply made the contributions over the past 20 years. Would it be fully funded, no, but it would not be a topic of discussion at all today because it would be close to fully funded.

    Try doing this with your retirement. Don’t contribute for 20 years, and then cry about the hole you are in because of all that money you lost out by not only not contributing, but also not compounding your investment earnings over two decades.

    Libturd questioning the gender of Hillary’s Cankle fluid. says:
    June 1, 2018 at 11:02 am
    Ignorant of how math works too.

  72. The Original NJ ExPat says:

    LOL. Trump is crazy like a fox. As it turns out, the BLS numbers are embargoed to, obviously, if you think about it, prevent insider trading. Trump may or may not have hinted at something prior to the jobs number, but he did it publicly. Apparently he would be well within his legal rights to tweet the actual numbers publicly whenever he wants.

    Loads of MSM media coverage of a great jobs report that they would normally bury. Trump wins again.

  73. The Great Pumpkin says:

    If you can’t see how these workers were robbed, you are blind. You keep crowing about how good the pensions are, when in reality they have been robbed of that good pension over a 20 year period and left with nothing. It’s criminal!

  74. The Original NJ ExPat says:

    Pumps must be attending joyce’s new age school of witty comebacks where the school motto is, Zing ’em without mking ur thms tired

    You are.

  75. The Original NJ ExPat says:

    feckless and a pumpkin had a baby=tgp

    The worst insult you can make here is to call someone a pumpkin.

  76. No One says:

    Communist China starved more people to death than any government in human history. Then after Zhao Ziyang enacted pro-market policies that allowed Chinese people to work to become rich, he was put under house arrest for the rest of his life by the Communist Party, because he wasn’t in favor of killing thousands of student protestors seeking political freedom.
    No surprise whose side the board Marxists would take.

  77. Blue Ribbon Teacher says:

    The pension was robbed of over 40 billion dollars over a 20 year period. Now if you take avg investment return of 7 or 8% and compound it, how much money are we talking about? So I rest my case that the damn pension fund would not be a problem if they simply made the contributions over the past 20 years. Would it be fully funded, no, but it would not be a topic of discussion at all today because it would be close to fully funded.

    The managers of the pension have not average 7 to 8% returns. Not even close. In fact, they dumped over 100 million into Lehman days before the collapse. They have been robbed, but mostly through sky high fees. It’s a combination of bad investments, obscene fees, and false promises. As a vested interest in the pension fund, I’m willing to admit that I and everyone else need to take a 50 haircut to even make this thing possible. No one else is, and that is why it’s doomed to default.

  78. The Great Pumpkin says:

    No one,

    Right now, how many people don’t have health insurance? Are we some shining role model for taking care of our own? What is your point?

    Sad part, you support those same decisions by communist chin. You are against helping people because you hate redistribution. You are no better than those communists you put down in your post.

  79. grim says:

    It’s actually not insider trading if he indirectly telegraphed the results on Twitter, he simply violated the embargo.

    Pretty sure the major media get access to the embargo too. Probably decades of insider trading there.

  80. Blue Ribbon Teacher says:

    Getting people “covered under insurance” doesn’t do much. The insurance company just denies necessary care and takes their money. I don’t know why people think being “insured” is a magic bullet to anything. Sad thing is, most people would refuse to pay the doctor $50 cash to solve a problem. They want to pay nothing.

  81. Blue Ribbon Teacher says:

    Communist China has lifted more people out of poverty than any capitalist jerkwater, including the US which is currently putting more of its own citizens into poverty, despite what your corporate overlords told you.

    Was the Great Leap Forward actually a great leap forward?

  82. Blue Ribbon Teacher says:

    I wonder how it would go over if we brought the working conditions of factories in Asia to here.

  83. Blue Ribbon Teacher says:

    Why don’t we do the same thing? Better question, why did our glorious capitalist class decide to cede most of our manufacturing away? Randians, any idea why the great capitalists decided to go this route?

    So you are for tariffs then right?

  84. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Blue,

    We profit off the sick. Another problem in a capitalist system focused on profits as opposed to actually helping people. Capitalism has no business partaking in healthcare. You should never profit offf the sick, but here we are with a giant profit machine feeding off the sick.

    Capitalism and greed are responsible for most of the problems in our society. We have more than enough resources to go around, but capitalism and profit won’t allow it.

    Capitalism has its place in the economy, but it should stay the hell away from healthcare and education.

  85. The Original NJ ExPat says:

    Pumps – Here’s a brain teaser for you:

    How do you think health care works in China? Universal? Private insurance?

    Nope. Simpler still. Cash. No cash, no health care.

  86. The Great Pumpkin says:

    I’m for doing the right thing. Simple as that.

    Blue Ribbon Teacher says:
    June 1, 2018 at 11:49 am
    Why don’t we do the same thing? Better question, why did our glorious capitalist class decide to cede most of our manufacturing away? Randians, any idea why the great capitalists decided to go this route?

    So you are for tariffs then right?

  87. grim says:

    The pension was robbed of over 40 billion dollars over a 20 year period.

    I was under the impression much of the “taking” were in the form of market rate loans, whose rates were not far off from the real-world long run growth estimates.

  88. PumpkinFace says:

    I don’t think you can do the math.

    The Great Pumpkin says:
    June 1, 2018 at 11:10 am
    You are.

    The pension was robbed of over 40 billion dollars over a 20 year period. Now if you take avg investment return of 7 or 8% and compound it, how much money are we talking about?

  89. joyce says:

    Expat,
    If your attempts at humor were coming over a different medium, you may have half a leg to stand on – still wouldn’t be funny though.

  90. leftwing says:

    “It’s actually not insider trading if he indirectly telegraphed the results on Twitter, he simply violated the embargo.”

    CNBC was focusing on the insider aspect as well. Limited distribution would constitute preferential (insider) disclosure.

    Here’s the funny part….a federal court just ruled that Trump’s twitter account was not personal (limited). Ruling was that it is a public forum. (Trump had blocked some liberal posters who sued, and won, under the theory that his account constituted public governmental disclosure).

    https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-trump-twitter/trumps-blocking-of-critics-on-twitter-violates-constitution-u-s-judge-idUSKCN1IO2P2

    Libs just can’t keep from stepping on their own d1cks…lol.

  91. grim says:

    Cutting edge education in Boston…..

    No doubt he was part of the ruthless Boston Latinos gang.

  92. joyce says:

    30% of comments from one person. Someone is doing the level best to take the title.

    D-FENS says:
    June 1, 2018 at 11:06 am
    The worst insult you can make here is to call someone a pumpkin.

  93. The Great Pumpkin says:

    I based this off 2 billion investment for 20 years (40 billion) compounded at 7%.

    The pension fund would currently have 90 billion more dollars in it than it currently has, and we would not be talking about the pension problem.

    The reason I didn’t want to do the math is because it’s not perfect. What are the long term costs lost in compounding when you account for the 90 billion not in the fund today. On a ten percent year, you just lost 9 billion dollars in compounded investment in one year.

    Criminal what they did to those workers.

    PumpkinFace says:
    June 1, 2018 at 12:15 pm
    I don’t think you can do the math.

    The Great Pumpkin says:
    June 1, 2018 at 11:10 am
    You are.

    The pension was robbed of over 40 billion dollars over a 20 year period. Now if you take avg investment return of 7 or 8% and compound it, how much money are we talking about?

  94. Libturd questioning the gender of Hillary's Cankle fluid. says:

    Find me 2 billion please.

  95. grim says:

    I based this off 2 billion investment for 20 years (40 billion) compounded at 7%.

    Shouldn’t you actually compare to the market rate of the loans instead of 0?

  96. Blue Ribbon Teacher says:

    We profit off the sick. Another problem in a capitalist system focused on profits as opposed to actually helping people. Capitalism has no business partaking in healthcare. You should never profit offf the sick, but here we are with a giant profit machine feeding off the sick.

    This model that we run on has led to the cure of hundreds of diseases and ailments. I’m pretty sure everyone that was HIV+ in the mid 90s is greatful for capitalism.

  97. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Grim,

    You lost me. Loans?

  98. grim says:

    You make it sound like someone wrote a check against the accounts and took the money.

    You know that a fair portion of that was actually loans against the funds … right? The funds loaned the state the money, and are paid back for that.

  99. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Blue,

    The same model responsible for putting millions in poverty? Great that you saved their life, but terrible that you can’t find a job for the individual to survive on.

  100. grim says:

    Problem with NJs pension model is that it’s not recognizably different than a Ponzi scheme.

    It’s predicated on a 1940-1970s level of population and government growth.

    The minute the growth of new plan participants stalls, the whole thing falls apart.

    Plan participants do not contribute anywhere near the level required to fund their payouts.

    The model does not work at 1:1, it’s closer to 3:1.

    We need 3 new employees for each retiree.

    Ponzi scheme.

    Politicians can not be trusted with defined benefit plans.

  101. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Grim,

    They took out loans on the missed contributions?

    When the check for contributions was not written to the funds and not paid back, it was stolen from the workers. That’s how I see it, maybe I’m seeing it wrong.

  102. Blue Ribbon Teacher says:

    The same model responsible for putting millions in poverty? Great that you saved their life, but terrible that you can’t find a job for the individual to survive on.

    So you are for tariffs now?

  103. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Just take it from the pension fund. Worked for over 20 years, right?

    Libturd questioning the gender of Hillary’s Cankle fluid. says:
    June 1, 2018 at 12:53 pm
    Find me 2 billion please.

  104. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Tariffs hurt economic growth by creating winners and losers. If we were not so greedy, we would create a global economy based on fair competition for all, but no way in hell that ever happens.

  105. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Social security is a Ponzi scheme too. Hell, capitalism itself is based on a long term Ponzi scheme. Needs constant population growth to sustain economic growth or it crashes.

    This century will test capitalism. Population growth is peaking, and going to be a sh!t show when population growth is no longer there to fuel growth and consumption.

  106. Libturd questioning the gender of Hillary's Cankle fluid. says:

    200 billion!

  107. No One says:

    BRT,
    They should be grateful but probably are not. I’d actually bet that more of them curse the drug companies instead. People surrounded by the bounties of capitalism nevertheless have been trained to hate it by their thought leaders.

    Meanwhile, a fun fact is that Cuba’s highly touted state run medical system has invented nearly nothing. And China’s state run drug companies mostly copy off-patent generics or stuff that is 15-20 years behind state of the art, and if you want decent as opposed to “free” medical care, expect to pay significant cash bribes up front.

    “This model that we run on has led to the cure of hundreds of diseases and ailments. I’m pretty sure everyone that was HIV+ in the mid 90s is greatful for capitalism.”

  108. No One says:

    Do we have any members of the 50 Cent Army on this board? Sometimes it feels like it. Or maybe that’s just MSNBC, CNN, HuffPo, and our idiots just mimic them for free.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/50_Cent_Party
    The 50 Cent Party, or 50 Cent Army (Chinese: 五毛党), is the colloquial term for Internet commentators (Chinese: 网络评论员), hired by Chinese authorities in an attempt to manipulate public opinion to the benefit of the Chinese Communist Party.[1][2] It was created during the early phases of Internet’s rollout to the wider public in China. The name derives from the allegation that commentators were said to be paid fifty cents (in Renminbi) for every post,[3][4][5] though some speculate that they are probably not paid anything for the posts, instead being required to do so as a part of their official Party duties.[6] They created favourable comments or articles on popular Chinese social media networks, intended to derail discussions that are unhelpful to the Communist Party and promoted narratives that served the government’s interests, together with disparaging comments and misinformation about political opponents and critics of the Chinese government, both domestic and abroad.[7][8][9] It is also used as a derogatory term against people with perceived pro-CPC or Chinese nationalist views.[10]

    A 2016 Harvard University paper found that in contrast to common assumptions, Chinese Internet commentators are mostly paid government bureaucrats, responding to government directives in times of crisis, and flood Chinese social media with pro-government comments. They also rarely engage in direct arguments, and around 80% of the analysed posts involve pro-China cheerleading with inspirational slogans, and 13% involve general praise and suggestions on governmental policies.[10][11]

    As of 2016, this practice seems to have largely ceased, and propagandist participation in Internet discussions has become part of the Communist party officials’ normal work. Also the nature of participation has become more nuanced and less aggressive.[12][13] Research indicated a “massive secretive operation” to fill China’s Internet with propaganda has resulted in some 488 million posts carried out by fake social media accounts, out of the 80 billion posts generated on Chinese social media. To maximize their influence, their pro-government comments are made largely during times of intense online debate, and when online protests have a possibility of transforming into real life actions.[10]

  109. The Great Pumpkin says:

    No one,

    Let’s see if you have this same position after your health bankrupts you under this current system. Yes, people giving their entire life savings, and some, have made this all possible. How much have you contributed? Almost nothing, hence why you love it!

  110. grim says:

    China’s pharmaceutical industry is too busy pumping out black market opiates like fentanyl and oxy-copies and sending them to the United States, and copying patented pharmaceuticals and selling them black market around the world.

    Their government, of course, looks the other way. Maybe that’s too kind, government officials are probably profiting nicely from it.

    Why innovate when you can simply push dope and steal someone else’s intellectual property?

    There are estimated to be more than 1000 drug labs operating in China now, sending illegal drugs to the US. China now makes the Latin/South American drug lords look like little kids peddling dope on the corner.

  111. grim says:

    I know a small electronics manufacturer that two years back moved production to China.

    They are now out of business.

    Two months after moving to China, there were DOZENS of companies selling his product on Alibaba.

    Exact clones for pennies basically.

    Recourse? Yeah, right.

    You can still find his product everywhere, including his logos, branding, and everything. Except now, his company doesn’t exist at all.

  112. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Then why doesn’t our corporate lords cut off China from selling goods in our economy? That’s right, they care more about profits…

    “There are estimated to be more than 1000 drug labs operating in China now, sending illegal drugs to the US. China now makes the Latin/South American drug lords look like little kids peddling dope on the corner.”

  113. Libturd questioning the gender of Hillary's Cankle fluid. says:

    I’m in the fiddy-cent party.

    You can find me in the club, bottle full of bub’
    Look, mami, I got the X if you into takin’ drugs
    I’m into havin’ sex, I ain’t into makin’ love
    So come give me a hug if you’re into gettin’ rubbed

  114. Libturd questioning the gender of Hillary's Cankle fluid. says:

    Talk to the guy who invented the fidget spinner. Spent all his money and time trying to stamp out the copycats. Ended up broke.

  115. joyce says:

    Hear, hear.

    Blue Ribbon Teacher says:
    June 1, 2018 at 11:35 am
    Getting people “covered under insurance” doesn’t do much. The insurance company just denies necessary care and takes their money. I don’t know why people think being “insured” is a magic bullet to anything. Sad thing is, most people would refuse to pay the doctor $50 cash to solve a problem. They want to pay nothing.

  116. 1987 Condo says:

    I’d like to correct the comment that Social Security is a ponzi scheme. It is not.
    It is a “pay as you” go pension system. It is clear, and on your statements, that you will only get paid based upon the collection levels that exist at time of payout, if the funding is not available your benefits will be cut. As long as someone is working, some money will be paid out.

    This type of pension “funding” was anathema when I studied actuarial science in the 80’s. Of course “Defined Benefit” plans was the proper methodology to fund pensions.

    Ironically, we have seen that both companies and governments use over funded and properly funded plans as their piggy banks, endangering those payouts.

    It seem that pay as you go social security will at least provide a percentage of original estimates.

  117. joyce says:

    1987,
    Do you know if it was always “pay as you” from a legislative standpoint? Or did subsequent legislation change it?

  118. 1987 Condo says:

    I think it was always this way, of course they were many more workers per retirees back then. They adjusted the formula in 1983 to fix the impending shortfall then, my guess they will wait to the very last minute again….it does not appear we are a people who will handle things in advance.

    Listen, if they increased the payroll tax or raised the retirement age now, someone would say, hey, we have some extra cash to spend!!

  119. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Condo,

    Your post describes why I have stated numerous times on this blog that the pension system can’t go broke.

    You are correct, they aren’t true Ponzi schemes, but calling it that helps people understand how they work. They are simply generational redistributative systems where the young help pay for the elderly’s retirement. They work and it’s a sin that greedy people have stolen away the pensions from workers in America. Took a solid tool for helping raise the living standards of the elderly poor and middle class in retirement, and corrupted it till there was nothing left. Then they tell the dumb working class that pensions aren’t sustainable, we have to take it away, and they believed the crap.

  120. 1987 Condo says:

    Well, a defined benefit plan can go essentially broke. There are a number of instance where the Steel company pensions were reduced 80% or more and the current multi employer plan may fall back to the PBGC minimums.

    There are no guarantee minimums for State/local plans, politics will determine what gets paid. As we see in Illinois, I expect pension bonds will “save” the day for 20-30 years..

    https://www.kiplinger.com/article/retirement/T037-C000-S004-retirees-face-cuts-in-pension-benefits.html

    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-01-26/illinois-ponders-pension-fund-moonshot-a-107-billion-bond-sale

  121. Blue Ribbon Teacher says:

    Tariffs hurt economic growth by creating winners and losers. If we were not so greedy, we would create a global economy based on fair competition for all, but no way in hell that ever happens.

    I believe in unicorns as well. Explain how the U.S. was able to function domestically on 200 years of tariffs.

  122. The Original NJ ExPat says:

    LOL. He was the dean of Boston English, which may sound similar to Boston Latin, and both of them are Boston Public High Schools.

    Two main differences:
    1. Boston English is not an exam school.
    2. Probably less English spoken there than any other Boston HS. The Boston English Latinos might be an apropos gang name though.

    https://www.bostonglobe.com/metro/2018/05/31/jury-reaches-verdict-case-former-english-high-dean-accused-shooting-former-student/VvIn3L0StkrDlLpRlngMjN/story.html

    Cutting edge education in Boston…..

    No doubt he was part of the ruthless Boston Latinos gang.

  123. chicagofinance says:

    You can take it one step further and posit that the Chinese Government is actively and strategically involved on the investment and execution side.

    grim says:
    June 1, 2018 at 2:01 pm
    Their government, of course, looks the other way. Maybe that’s too kind, government officials are probably profiting nicely from it.

  124. 1987 Condo says:

    School Funding Plan, so this seems reasonable, yet may lead to gov’t shutdown:

    Sweeney said the plan is needed because the state has refused to cut aid from some districts after conditions changed and the funding formula indicated they no longer needed it. Jersey City, for example, receives nearly $175 million more than the state formula calls for, according to the NJ.com report.

    Meanwhile, other districts with growing populations find themselves strapped for cash, with local taxpayers having to shoulder more of the burden.
    The New Jersey Education Association, the politically powerful teachers union that has feuded with Sweeney, opposes reducing money sent to overfunded districts, according to NJ.com.

    Sweeney says his bill’s extended timeline gives schools that have seen enrollment shrink time to reduce staff through attrition, according to POLITICO. Sweeney’s bill would ensure every district receives at least 58 percent of the funding called for under the state formula, according to POLITICO. In some districts, state funding is currently only 20 or 45 percent, according to the site’s report.

    http://observer.com/2018/06/nj-politics-digest-school-funding-plan-budget-fight/

    http://www.nj.com/politics/index.ssf/2018/06/threat_of_another_state_shutdown_just_went_up_in_a.html

  125. Very Stable Genius says:

    @BillKristol

    By the way, since Trump is tweeting ahead of time about the unemployment numbers, are we confident he isn’t also privately telling family and friends about them ahead of time so they can front run the market?

  126. Very Stable Genius says:

    @LHSummers

    If during the Clinton or Obama Administrations there had been a statement from @POTUS or anyone senior official in the morning before the Employment Report it would have been a major scandal—with all sorts of investigations following on.

  127. Very Stable Genius says:

    @christinawilkie

    Conflating racism and profanity is dangerous.
    One is a worldview, the other is a word choice.
    Big difference.

    .
    leftwing says:
    June 1, 2018 at 10:42 am
    VSG, Otto, and the rest of the Left…..

    Leave aside the moral equivalency. Forget distinctions without a difference.

    One question only.

    Samantha Bee. Gone or not?

    (Please, please, please TBS/liberal MSM, let her stay and defend her vigorously. Coverage just in the last 24 hours has likely increased turnout by 2-3 percentage points for the Right in the midterms…..)

  128. Leftwing says:

    Thank you!!!!!!

    Please be VERY vocal with the above argument. Any outlets you can find. The more the better.

    Much appreciated!

  129. Blue Ribbon Teacher says:

    Talk to the guy who invented the fidget spinner. Spent all his money and time trying to stamp out the copycats. Ended up broke.

    I feel his pain. I invented the Everything Bagel.

  130. The Original NJ ExPat says:

    Spygate isn’t real. (let’s see how this plays out)

  131. The Original NJ ExPat says:

    Also, joyce is really cool…and slim.

  132. The Original NJ ExPat says:

    Back in my day. Sorry you missed it .

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XVJu8iieB-E

  133. The Original NJ ExPat says:

    oyce – I’d like your opinion on this. I have the option to write an article in a prominent New York publication, but I’m vacillating. How do you feel about an article titled, Your Poossy Expires at Sixty?

Comments are closed.