From the Star Ledger:
Who the heck can afford N.J.? Search up-to-date prices in every N.J. town for renting, buying
If you or anyone you know has been in the New Jersey real estate market, you feel the pain.
On the rebound from the housing crash, New Jersey real estate keeps getting hotter, and the battle of bids and demand for homes continues to get worse.
Home values have risen slightly, while inventory has plunged dramatically, making it harder to find a home in strong real estate markets, which tend to be Jersey’s most desirable areas.
All of that makes for a toughening market for buyers, especially in a state that already has one of the highest median home prices in the country, according to Zillow, a real estate website. Rent prices have remained stable, but they, too, are much higher than the national average.
Yet with homeownership getting more expensive, many people are choosing to remain renters, instead. About 36 percent of New Jersey homes were renter-occupied in the 2012-2016 Census snapshot, a 7.5 percent increase from 10 years before.
From CNBC:
Hamptons property sales slow as caution spreads to the wealthy
Home sales have slowed down this year in the Hamptons, the Long Island beach communities that serve as a summer playground for the wealthy of New York, bringing the median price below the $1m mark.
Second-quarter sales fell 12.8 percent from 2017 levels, according to data prepared for Douglas Elliman by Miller Samuel Real Estate. The median price dropped 5.3 percent to a $975,000, compared with $1.03m a year earlier.
The spring selling season is usually the high point of the year in the Hamptons, so the drop is stoking concerns that the resort areas of Long Island’s south shore are succumbing to the pressures depressing property activity in other parts of the US.
Rising mortgage rates are increasing costs for homebuyers of all stripes. Higher-end properties have been affected by the 2016 federal tax reform, which imposed new limits on the deductions of mortgage interest and state taxes — the latter a particular concern in high-tax New York.
“Buyers [in the Hamptons] are behaving much like we’ve seen in much of the region,” said Jonathan Miller, president at Miller Samuel. “They’re taking longer to make their decisions, pausing and waiting to see how things shake out.”
He said sales have slowed most in the “Hamptons middle” — homes listed in the $1m-$5m range.
“The middle is where you have more leverage being used in acquisitions, so rising mortgage rates are a factor, the new tax laws are a factor,” he said. “General uncertainty applies more to that segment than any other.”
From WSJ:
The Stealth Pension Mortgage on Your House
Real estate is the ultimate collateral for unfunded state public employee retirement obligations.
By Rob Arnott and Lisa Meulbroek
Aug. 5, 2018 3:10 p.m. ET
Most cities, counties and states have committed taxpayers to significant future unfunded spending. This mostly takes the form of pension and postretirement health-care obligations for public employees, a burden that averages $75,000 per household but exceeds $100,000 per household in some states. Many states protect public pensions in their constitutions, meaning they cannot be renegotiated. Future pension obligations simply must be paid, either through higher taxes or cuts to public services.
Is there a way out for taxpayers in states that are deep in the red? Milton Friedman famously observed that the only thing more mobile than the wealthy is their capital. Some residents may hope that they can avoid the pension crash by decamping to a more fiscally sound state.
But this escape may be illusory. State taxes are collected on four economic activities: consumption (sales tax), labor and investment (income tax) and real-estate ownership (property tax). The affluent can escape sales and income taxes by moving to a new state—but real estate stays behind. Property values must ultimately support the obligations that politicians have promised, even if those obligations aren’t properly funded, because real estate is the only source of state and local revenue that can’t pick up and move elsewhere. Whether or not unfunded obligations are paid with property taxes, it’s the property that backs the obligations in the end.
When property owners choose to sell and become tax refugees, they pass along the burden to the next owner. And buyers of properties in troubled states will demand lower prices if they expect property taxes to increase.
It doesn’t matter if we own or rent; landlords pass higher taxes on to tenants. Nor does it matter if properties are mortgaged to the hilt or owned outright. In time, unfunded pension obligations will be reflected in real-estate prices, if they aren’t already. A state’s unfunded liabilities are effectively a stealth mortgage on private property. Think you can pass your property on to your heirs? Only net of the unfunded pension obligations.
We calculated the ratio of unfunded pension obligations relative to property values in each state. We used 3% bond-market yields as our discount rate to measure unfunded obligations, because while other assets ostensibly earn a risk premium above the bond yield, these assets can also underperform.
Unfunded pension obligations range from a low of $30,000 per household of four in Tennessee to a high of $180,000 per household in Alaska. They amount to less than 11% of the average home values in Florida, Tennessee and Utah and more than 50% in Alaska, Mississippi and Ohio.
There are a few surprises. California, Hawaii and New York have large unfunded obligations, but because property in these states is so expensive, the average household burden is less than 15% of the average home price. Meanwhile, West Virginia and Iowa have relatively low pension debts—but the average household obligation is more than 30% of the average home price because property is far less expensive in these states.
On average nationwide, unfunded state and local pension burdens represent 20% of real-estate values. This ratio can rival or exceed an owner’s home equity, depending on the size of his mortgage. If real-estate prices adjust to reflect unfunded pension obligations, many homeowners’ equity could be at risk. As we’ve seen in Detroit, the public pension stealth mortgage can ultimately devastate the housing market.
https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-stealth-pension-mortgage-on-your-house-1533496243
Nice piece from Bloomberg on land use, NJ is clearly urban, not suburban.
https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2018-us-land-use/
Nice set of graphics…Mooooooo!
In reference to pension issue.
Oh boy, boomers are really piecees of sh!t. This going to get crazy unless fed govt bails this out. I had no idea these other states were in such bad positions, because only looked at total obligation cost. This is why boomers were locusts to prior and future generations. Took it all and lived it up on others. This national debt was on their dime.
Well, it finally looks like I will rejoin the ranks of the employed in next few weeks after landing a job at another IB. The good news is that it will not require commute to NYC as I don’t have to work at HQ. Saves me 2 hours commuting each day…hurrah. Overall, this 5 month job search has been the most difficult and sobering experience of my 20 year career. Here are my takeaways for those non-developers and non-front office types who might be looking soon:
1. The finance job market has changed 180 degrees over last few years and this was confirmed by several recruiters. They can’t rely on finance industry as bread and butter anymore. Recruiters generally also fill jobs for fin-tech developers (only), healthcare/nurses and big govt. contractors (ie those with clearance). Most recruiters are eunochs now as companies use LinkedIn to reach candidates and avoid recruiting fees. Consulting firms that I worked for in the past..well, they completely ignored me even after multiple attempts at contact. It was truly astounding. You are on your own..take heed.
2. Those semi-legitimate recruiters that did contact me had jobs for 2-7 years experience. No one cared or wanted 10+ years experience. W2 pay ranged from $40/hr (a joke; 3 mo. TRACE reporting contractor at CLSA) to about $85/hr with no benefits. Ask for a dime more..click. Gone are the $800-$1000 corp to corp daily rate jobs. My favorite was a contract at Alexion pharma in New Haven. They wanted immediately (guessing someone quit), a senior tech PM to oversee all external resources contracted to the project, manage all vendor contracts, define and control multiple project charters/tasks/deliverables/budgets, manage work done by software engineers, provide metrics reporting for execs, etc, etc. Probably 30 bullets of responsbilities. I tell the guy $125/hr and he says $115/hr tops and it has hard contract end by early Nov (?!). I asked him how that could be possible if they are still defining the charters/deliverables and it is almost August. He was not sure so I said to submit me and I will ask for clarifications during interview. Immediately, he gets cold. Apparently, asking logical questions is not what recruiters nor delusional pharma companies want in a prospective hire. Never heard back because he never put me in. Marked as difficult apparently. That was the only ‘over $85 hour’ conversation I had entire 5 months.
3. LinkedIn is your only hope for landing a real job. Indeed is a prayer in the dark but you have to do it. This may seem pretty obvious but experienced pros need to work past connections, rely on friends/family and turn over every ugly rock. Prepare to be ignored even with this strategy. You are on you own..take heed.
4. Even when contacted for a legitimate FT job, prepare for low-ball salary discussion within two seconds and no negotiation. 95% of NYC banking PM jobs wanted $115 – $125K base for high level skill and responsibility. I had only two conversations over $150k base but location was horrible for CT commute (JPM in Brooklyn, DB on Wall street). Might not be issue for NJ folks but for me it is like how Rockefeller area sucks if coming from NJ..but worse..
So, in the end, I took a job for 10% less base salary than my last job. I tried to negotiate higher salary then more paid time off and lastly a slight sign-on bonus. They did not move one cent. Take it or leave it even though they really wanted me. I was prepared for 5-7% base decline because my old IB paid higher salaries due to little bonus. Was I wrong. I will need to get 15% bonus to break even on income but really not sure I will get there. It is clearly a step down. In five months, I had three in person interviews. Two interviews were due to my brother and old boss putting me in personally. I did not get a job from brother’s firm and was waiting to hear from old boss as of Friday. The job I ended up getting was luck of draw via Indeed. It was pure timing issue as someone did not work out and they rarely hire in the location. I had Compliance IT/PM background which closely aligned with their project. It still took 2.5 months to bring me in for formal interview. The process was entire miscommunication clusterf&ck.
This past Friday was a perfect microcosm of my entire search experience:
1. 10 AM – get the final offer. No negotiation on my counter. Tell him I will get back to him end of day or Monday.
2. 10:30 AM – phone screen with Mastercard in Westchester for Director, Ops Transformation. Base much higher than offer but ridiculous global scrum strategy where calls take place daily at 6 AM. Call goes very well and woman says they want to bring me in but no rush to hire so it will be several weeks before interview. I tell her I really like the role but other interviews/potential offer in the works so can I come in sooner? Her answer “Well, good luck with those.” Unreal..
3. 11 AM – recruiter who contacted me day before about Sr PM contract job at IB in NYC. Set-up call and she accepted. She never called me and never replied to me on why she blew it off.
4. 4 PM – old boss finally contacts me. The job I interviewed for went to more jr. person/ jr. pay. He offers me Sr BA role but it has to be 6 month contract as they are not hiring Sr. level head count. Clearly throwing me a bone but I tell him thanks but no. He understood after I told him about the FT offer.
5. 5 PM – I call and accept IB offer. No other options. Countless emails/applications, hundreds of phone calls, two dozen or more job phone screens, 3 formal interviews…one real FT offer.
I am thankful to have it though my family will need to pinch more. Single income stinks. Survive and move on to fight another day. I expect fall to be busy with calls. I will most likely entertain some as not real happy with the offer from this place. Still, at least I can be selective now that I have something.
Sorry for long post. Perhaps others had better experiences in this ‘hot’ job market but it was very painful out there. Jumping ship for greener pastures? Ghosting employers? Maybe the lowly paid folks but hang on if you are making over $150k in NYC area.
Grim,
Thanks for the share. How long have you and I said this….northeast nj might be called suburbs by locals in the nyc metro area, but they are urban. We still get called the king of the suburbs when that was 30-40 years ago. This map illustrates how nj has transitioned to an urban Mecca and it’s only going to become more urban and dense.
3b, do you get it now? Nj is not dying like you suggest. It might not look like the suburbs that attracted you to this state, but acknowledge the change.
https://www.businessinsider.com/china-could-be-the-new-owner-of-venezuelas-oil-industry-2018-4?r=UK&IR=T
Don’t blame the boomers for it all. As long as there are people willing to pay the prices asked then it continues. And you love high property taxes you have said so many times. Solution? Buyers don’t pay the prices asked and cut ridiculous spending.
It’s going to be the urban night mare that you fear.
Bystander,
Congrats! See how good the economy is, you are in field that is being eliminated and you still found work.
Your field had it too good. That’s why it’s getting killed now. Other fields went through this cost cutting already and are now seeing a light at the end of the tunnel.
Well then, understand every piece of land in northeast nj is sitting on a lottery ticket that can’t be claimed for at least 10-15 years. Understand the more dense it becomes, the more valuable the land becomes. So keep waiting for the prices to crash in your town buddy. Good luck!
3b says:
August 6, 2018 at 8:45 am
It’s going to be the urban night mare that you fear.
There you go again. In one post you are blaming the boomers for all that is wrong and in the next you are cheering high real estate prices.
For the hundredth time, I don’t like high taxes, but I understand that we have to pay the costs of society. Unlike the boomers, who like to push the bill down the road. I’m all about being a man and paying my bills. Your generation created a class of lawyers used to skip their tax bills. Your generation created an army of lobbyists to bend the rules of the economy in their favor. Open up your eyes and tell your generation to pay the bill they created instead of running to another country or state to avoid paying. Scumbags!
3b says:
August 6, 2018 at 8:43 am
Don’t blame the boomers for it all. As long as there are people willing to pay the prices asked then it continues. And you love high property taxes you have said so many times. Solution? Buyers don’t pay the prices asked and cut ridiculous spending.
Just tell the boomers to cover the cost of taking down Iraq. Poured all that money into Iraq when it should have been used on our infrastructure and schools.
“Bystander says:
August 6, 2018 at 8:40 am
Well, it finally looks like I will rejoin the ranks of the employed in next few weeks after landing a job at another IB”
Congrats, Bystander. Good luck.
I also am making a change of sorts. I have an offer from a BIGLAW firm in Phila but I may also get an offer of sorts from my current shop. Depending on what that looks like, I may stay here.
Its a lovely morning. Had a great weekend. How about you NY/NJers?
Cheering? It’s called making calls. You claimed nj is dead and home prices are going to bust. I have constantly attacked your position because it’s dead wrong, not because I’m cheerleading. Me making claims of “lottery ticket” is to try and help people do well with nj real estate long term.
In 2012/13 when I yelled and screamed to take advantage of the ultra low rates(remember free money) by taking as much money as you can borrow and buy as much real estate as one could afford. Hold till 2025 and sell. That was my advice, and whoever took it will do well even selling now.
Of course, I was called an idiot and everything else in the book. I don’t get it.
3b says:
August 6, 2018 at 8:59 am
There you go again. In one post you are blaming the boomers for all that is wrong and in the next you are cheering high real estate prices.
Blumpkin,
As usual, your reading comprehension sucks. Banks have been downsizing for a decade. They should be on other side by now and looking to regrow but it is impossibly selective when looking above 150k. I am clearly stating that job market stinks for anyone looking for decent paying, experienced level job. What part of “I took a substantial pay cut”, don’t you underatand? You want to take low 100s salary in NYC then go ahead. That is slave wages for perhaps most expensive city in country. You are arrogant fool to think they are not coming for you if you do work. I question someone who posts all day and holds ft job.
Nom,
Great weekend at the jersey shore. I think everyone and their mother was down the shore. Must have been a ghost town up north.
Bystander,
It’s your field and you refuse to acknowledge it. Insane. Everyone I talk to is doing well, how you paint this bleak picture is beyond me.
Pumps says:
“This going to get crazy unless fed govt bails this out.”
Welcome to Civil War 2.0. If the dems get power and try to bail out their consitutencies, all hell will break loose.
“I had no idea these other states were in such bad positions . . .”
You’re obviously a very stable genius. >eyeroll<
Nom,
You knew Alaska was in that much trouble? Tenn? Even Florida? How the hell is florida in any debt whatsoever from pensions? Do they even give pensions in Florida and if they do, it has to be almost nothing.
Not…. a…. real…. poster! Why do you guys respond? You’re being played. Your leg is being pulled. Why do you respond?
Pumps – unfunded liabilities for government pension by State somewhere approaching 7 Trillion.
There is no State that does not have an issue and it is growing, New Jersey alone jumped $1500 per person in one year.
Unfunded pension liabilities per person for each of the 50 states.
From best to worst.
State Year 2016 2016
1 1 Tennessee $7,252 $7,601
2 2 Indiana $8,582 $9,131
3 4 Nebraska $9,171 $9,799
4 3 Wisconsin $9,161 $10,314
5 5 North Carolina $9,606 $10,944
6 7 Florida $10,381 $10,990
7 6 Idaho $10,027 $11,199
8 10 Utah $12,702 $12,277
9 21 Kansas $14,015 $13,257
10 8 Delaware $11,930 $13,339
11 15 South Dakota $13,156 $13,531
12 16 Oklahoma $13,283 $13,549
13 12 Virginia $12,865 $13,626
14 11 West Virginia $12,840 $13,703
15 9 Georgia $12,025 $13,877
16 17 Maine $13,296 $13,930
17 13 New Hampshire $13,022 $14,203
18 14 Texas $13,139 $14,260
19 18 Arizona $13,305 $14,774
20 19 North Dakota $13,495 $15,214
21 20 Vermont $13,909 $15,224
22 23 Iowa $14,870 $16,081
23 27 Maryland $15,570 $16,481
24 25 South Carolina $15,137 $16,512
25 24 Washington $15,047 $16,547
26 26 Alabama $15,443 $16,883
27 28 Michigan $15,824 $16,935
28 30 Pennsylvania $16,541 $17,457
29 31 New York $17,600 $17,485
30 29 Missouri $16,354 $17,642
31 32 Rhode Island $17,655 $18,671
32 22 Arkansas $14,768 $19,553
33 33 Massachusetts $18,672 $19,804
34 34 Montana $18,891 $20,131
35 35 Colorado $19,524 $21,369
36 37 Louisiana $20,202 $21,412
37 36 Minnesota $20,151 $21,507
38 39 Kentucky $21,685 $25,100
39 43 California $24,519 $25,166
40 40 Wyoming $23,259 $25,331
41 41 Nevada $24,169 $25,886
42 42 Oregon $24,296 $26,738
43 38 Mississippi $21,509 $26,902
44 46 New Jersey $26,355 $27,806
45 44 Hawaii $24,655 $28,063
46 45 New Mexico $26,176 $28,119
47 48 Illinois $28,246 $30,336
48 49 Ohio $28,558 $30,538
49 47 Connecticut $27,701 $35,731
50 50 Alaska $42,992 $45,689
Fast,
The calls I make are a joke being played on you? You might not like the message sometimes, but don’t shoot the messenger.
I have to go get work done, but I’m no false poster.
Juice,
So it’s not blue state created problem?
Call me stupid, but the pension issue is made to seem like a blue state problem, when it’s all over. Tennessee has a 30,000 per household obligation, and they only talk about nj, conn, Illinois, and Cali? Wtf?!
I seriously have to go get this work done, but I’ll be back later.
Actually, I am quite tired of everybody, well most everyone, blaming boomers on today’s problems. These problems existed before the boomers matured. I personally put blame on the generation between the ‘greatest’ and baby boomers.
They were the ones that kept FICA payroll taxes unrealistically low. The boomers got smacked when reality spiked the rates in the 80s. Inflation in the late 1970s. How’s 12% a year sound to you guys? Real estate prices took a huge spike in the early 1980s, following Jimmy Carter’s miserable years. I was not old enough to have saved a good down payment and watched while housing prices here in Jersey double within 4 years.
The Boomers were the ones that started cleaning up the water and air. My God, does anyone remember how much filth was being spewed out in the 50s, 60s, 70s and 80s.
Anyone remember American Cyanamid in Bridgewater? Bethlehem Steel along 78? The Turnpike along the Carteret/Elizabeth corridor? How about New York City dumping all their garbage via barges straight into the Atlantic ocean 50 miles outside the city?
Boomers didn’t initiate it. Now, I don’t care for the hippie generation, either. They were a couple of years before my time. But its seems that their lack of sensibilities morphed into today’s politically correct way of doing things. They were lazy sunavabitches back then and have cloned themselves via indoctrination and political dogma.
The Boomers did not cause the problems. We were the generation that got hammered by the prior because they knew how to kick the can down the road.
If you are on the IT side of an IB and you are not a developer/architect and bring value in cloud, machine learning/ai, big data etc – then good luck getting any VP+ role.
I stick by my original thought that you are a pathetic basement dweller hired by Sue Adler to destroy this blog and exact revenge due to premier real estate and financial advice received here for years.. You have chased off a vast majority of truly intelligent posters with your drivel. Job well done, Sue.
pumps re:”So it’s not blue state created problem?”
Nope always been a politician created problem.
Just look at the latest “assumed rate” shenanigans, Gov Christie lowered it and Gov Murphy raised it right back up again. That was an $800 million dollar accounting trick for this year budget. This is akin to the patient that needs a blood transfusion to just stay alive and the doctors give the patient a shot of morphine instead.
This nonsense goes back to Florio…it’s well documented the politicians giveth and they taketh away. There will be a cram-down on pension benefits by a judge someday, there could be a federal bailout of sorts but I see something of a benefit haircut on existing pension benefit recipients.
PUMP, I do give you credit for calling market in 2012-13.. I wasn’t checking it but the way you are so bullish on RE for ever has wondering me if this falls under the category “‘ a broken clock is right twice a day”.
Trust me I work in one of the top IBs.. We haven’t hired for ever.. We have a hiring freeze for the past 11 years… Cant promote my managers/staff and cant get promoted either if they are in NY metro area… We can only hire wipro/TCS bla bla.. Banks who drive the job market in Metro are all in big cost control mode…
I have 60 guys work for me worldwide and only 12 in US… Down from 30+ back in 2007. The height of craziness when we hired like nuts.. This is not some back office but top tech operation.. If I get out now, gonna be hard to get back to the same level of job and $$$.. So sitting tight…
The economy seems to be great if you are flipping burgers in Wendy’s or some sub 100K job.
Wonder if Murphy is going to be another one-term democrat, just like Florio, McGreevy, and Corzine.
Xolepa – re: “Boomers Boomers were the ones that started cleaning up the water and air”
History did not happen that way. Slient Spring wasn’t a boomer, and EPA was an executive order created by President Richard Nixon, hardly a boomer and we all knew he hated the boomer Hippies.
Grim – The Star Ledger did not send Andrew Mills to Italy with a drone to film Governor Murphy, I have my doubts whether we will ever see bad coverage in our local rags…
Also, most banking tech jobs are being moved to low cost locations.. Like we did to Austin TX, SC etc and of-course to India..
Most of them ain’t coming back.. Having said that it looks like the population of US/NJ seems to be on the rise.. Atleast in metro areas.. Getting crowed everywhere these days..
“Stock buybacks are eating the world. The once illegal practice of companies purchasing their own shares is pulling money away from employee compensation, research and development, and other corporate priorities—with potentially sweeping effects on business dynamism, income and wealth inequality, working-class economic stagnation, and the country’s growth rate. Evidence for that conclusion comes from a new report by Irene Tung of the National Employment Law Project (NELP) and Katy Milani of the Roosevelt Institute, who looked at share buybacks in the restaurant, retail, and food industries from 2015 to 2017.
Their new paper contributes to a growing body of research that might help explain why economic growth is so sluggish, productivity so low, and increases in worker compensation so piddling, even as the stock market is surging and corporate profits are at historical highs. Companies are working overtime to make their owners richer in the short term, more so than to improve their longer-term competitiveness or to invest in their workers.”
https://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2018/07/are-stock-buybacks-starving-the-economy/566387/
Offshore banking and back office jobs are at huge risk being eliminated due to automation. The same high-effort, manual rote processes that made these jobs prime candidates for outsourcing and offshoring are why these jobs are prime candidates for automation.
Countries like India will see huge back office job losses in the coming years, probably disproportionate to the US.
Remember, what drove this wasn’t that off-shore resources were more skilled, it’s that they were cheaper. Geographic wage arbitrage meant cost savings with little to no process change. The cost of process change was significant compared to lift and shift strategies. Now that automation is getting cheap, and the gains are even larger than wage arbitrage, those jobs will move again, except they will move to automation and AI, and not to another geography.
In 2003, I was telling anyone that would listen to not buy. They all thought I was crazy and too young to understand (I was 23).
I’m calling for a bust somewhere in the second half of the next decade. That’s when the demographics should produce a huge boom with the inevitable bust to follow. There might be a quick recession before 2020, but this will be healthy and the fuel needed to create the roaring 20’s 2.0.
I’m no cheerleader, just a guy with a natural knack for reading the market aka I’m good at making money. Some people have it, some don’t.
NJDepartment says:
August 6, 2018 at 10:02 am
PUMP, I do give you credit for calling market in 2012-13.. I wasn’t checking it but the way you are so bullish on RE for ever has wondering me if this falls under the category “‘ a broken clock is right twice a day”.
Grim – even worse from what I have read.
The S&P 1200 are spending about 2 Trillion in salaries annually for G&A expenses.
The Robots are focused on automating the two main G&A expenses which are the Record-to-report (R2R) processes and the HR hire-to-retire (H2R) processes.
Eliminate errors, cut processing time by 50 percent etc is the pitch plus 30% staff reductions up front.
Save the Robots…
Those intelligent people left because they are eternal pessimists. This place served no purpose for the pessimist to hang around. It no longer fed their hunger for pessimist thoughts. They will return when the economy goes bad. Misery loves company.
Bystander says:
August 6, 2018 at 9:55 am
I stick by my original thought that you are a pathetic basement dweller hired by Sue Adler to destroy this blog and exact revenge due to premier real estate and financial advice received here for years.. You have chased off a vast majority of truly intelligent posters with your drivel. Job well done, Sue.
Guys,
any nice places to stay either in Oceancity or Wild wood… Not really right on the beach but something below 200/night range ??
Bystander, what you are seeing is the fruits of the H-1B visa scam. It has eviscerated the tech sector, at all levels and salaries. It is a disgrace what CEOs and politicians have done to this country.
High real estate prices on one side automation and job elimination on the other. Does not make sense to me.
H1B program runs completely counter to the STEM initiatives being touted by politicians nationally.
What, exactly, is the point of teaching anyone STEM anymore?
STEM is an elaborate shell game to justify H1B, those kids are all pawns.
Grim,
Do you think compliance will take it on the chin due to AI / Machine Learning?
Compliance is on the sidelines when it comes to automation etc for banks with cost being the priority.. Apart from automating their own stuff internally, banks are increasingly just adopting cloud..
Tons of stuff moving to cloud now, meaning u don’t need most of the tech guys mostly in operations.. Not many developers either.. I believe still early days for bank operations to be moved to cloud but I expect it to take off in 2-3 years..
Medical billing, insurance, provider, payor, etc – needs nuclear-annihilation levels of automation.
That entire industry is so entirely manual. It is because it needs to be to hide the level of cheating and fraud. I would wager a bet and say that 30% of companies on the provider side are engaged in fraud. Probably about 90% of medical device companies are engaged in fraud. About 75% of ambulance companies are engaged in fraud. Physical therapy, chiropractors, all fraud.
I’ve seen everything I need to about healthcare billing, approvals, denials. It’s all entirely criminal. Everything is about gaming the system.
And everybody is entirely complicit with it, as long as everyone makes money.
Grim,
The entire industry is ripe with fraud. Been that way for a long long time. Anything to do with cost cutting, margin reduction gets met with massive pushback. Like Buffet said, when you are trying to take $500B + out of the system, they won’t go willingly. Haven’t been in the industry for a few years but I think Doctor pay has taken a pretty big hit, maybe not surgeons who do the elective stuff but everyone else. GPs making like $150 now I think.
Back to AI etc, compliance officers and executives; if all the grunt work goes to AI, don’t need as many compliance VPs, directors etc since less humans involved with process; am I right about this?
Tons of spreadsheet jockeys in Risk and Compliance.
Grim – Jockeys are being automated too.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0et10ZmYvzQ
Shame, putting children out of work
Hotel or Condo? I usually rent a condo. Through VRBO or homeaway.com
I book many months in advance. Maybe you can find something with an open time slot you’re looking for. I’ve used Cabrera realty in wildwood too for a last minute rental.
Expand your search to North Wildwood and Wildwood Crest also.
JustAsking says:
August 6, 2018 at 11:03 am
Guys,
any nice places to stay either in Oceancity or Wild wood… Not really right on the beach but something below 200/night range ??
Grim – speaking of medical as A.I. gets better at reading scans parents may want to rethink of sending little Sophia or Aiden to Yale to become a radiologist.
McKinsey says about 1/3 of all jobs are at Risk of Robot replacement.
And Speaking of Stem check the enrollments…
http://www.aiindex.org/
Wonder if Murphy is going to be another one-term democrat, just like Florio, McGreevy, and Corzine.
It’s such a given that bookies won’t even give you odds or take the bet. The only question is how much damage he does in four years.
Buybacks only think propping up market?
https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-07-04/only-stock-buyers-first-half-were-buybacks-bofa
AI radiology
https://aidoc.com
And with all of this automation and elimination of job’s of course real estate prices will rise. This will be a super desirable area to be in without a job.
Reality is seen as pessimism to an exhuberantly ignorant fool.
Bystander – congrats! Mike S hits upon the areas to be in demand. Probably add cybersecurity to the list. On the other hand, if you are in the soft areas – PM, BA, compliance, etc. – not so much. As many have noted, H1 and Indian companies have decimated the pay in IT. Know a guy in SAP who used to get $250-$300/hr PLUS expenses in the late 90s is now doing probably getting around $100/hr AND he has to take care of the expenses for 2-3 month contracts. Kinda shows you how things have gone.
Maduro must sleep well at night seeing his troops scatter faster than NYC co*ckroaches when the drone went off. Didn’t see a single person from his security detail or one of the troops come to his protection in the news clip!
OTOH, lots of jobs at AMZN warehouses and short on truck drivers. Also, at Applebees and IHOb. Yup, that will keep the NJ real estate market going.
Grim – looks like my comment went into mod. Thought I masked the one word that might get caught. Can you check?
‘Bystander – congrats! Mike S hits upon the areas to be in demand. Probably add cybersecurity to the list. On the other hand, if you are in the soft areas – PM, BA, compliance, etc. – not so much. As many have noted, H1 and Indian companies have decimated the pay in IT. Know a guy in SAP who used to get $250-$300/hr PLUS expenses in the late 90s is now doing probably getting around $100/hr AND he has to take care of the expenses for 2-3 month contracts. Kinda shows you how things have gone.’
Definitely add cybersecurity.
Most are never hiring a PM, BA, etc again – you need to know how to code in one of those hot sectors and have PM and BA skills.
PMs are useful in 20+ million dollar projects across many groups, but kind of useless in a smaller setting.
BAs should go on the business/product side – there is hardly room for them in tech going forward.
Thank, Nom and Topper and all. Yes, I am in the soft spot for sure. Lack of investment locally hits at heart of issue. Clearly H1b has demolished sector. In fact, the interview at IB was with two younger (mid-30s) Indian dudes. One asked how I work with outsourced IT model in India and get past issues with time zone and engagement. I told him that you have to be understanding of another culture, try to understand person on other side and try to build relationship rather than just dictate to them…blah,blah. I think that answer sealed the offer. They loved it I am sure.
I’m amazed a SAP guy can get a job at all anymore.
Vacant Properties by town. “Currently, New Jersey has a total of 391,428 vacant housing units, according to Census data”
Some interesting ones.
Toms River township 2281
Clifton city 2059
Brick township 1685
Vernon township 608
West Milford township 585
Middletown township 567
Wayne township 488
Englewood city 421
Fort Lee borough 404
Teaneck township 336
https://www.nj.com/data/2018/08/nj_real_estate_the_number_of_vacant_properties_in_every_nj_town_and_why_theyre_costing_you_big_money.html#incart_2box_nj-homepage-featured
New Jersey has a total of 391,428 vacant housing units, according to Census data.
Check your town. Wayne township has 488 vacant housing units.
https://www.nj.com/data/2018/08/nj_real_estate_the_number_of_vacant_properties_in_every_nj_town_and_why_theyre_costing_you_big_money.html#incart_2box_nj-homepage-featured
And, for those pondering retirement, more good news!
https://www.nytimes.com/2018/08/05/business/bankruptcy-older-americans.html?emc=edit_nn_20180806&nl=morning-briefing&nlid=5264833520180806&te=1
“You can manage O.K. until there is a little stumble,” said an author of the study. “It doesn’t even take a big thing.”
And, it substantiates what’s been discussed here – insurance/healthcare/prescription costs; student loans; pension; mortgages/property taxes; low wages; dismal savings rate; basement kids; etc.
That place next to Lib in Costa Rica is looking mighty attractive!
Darn – in mod again. What was it this time Grim?
Juice,
Nice find. Brick township with almost 1700 vacant- it just happened to catch my eye. Ocean County west of the beaches is dreadful.
And, not just SAP – there are even a handful of Cobol jobs still out there! Even the Indians don’t take those jobs!
How many of these jobs contain client facing and tech skills combined – the ability to troubleshoot, resolve and communicate effectively?
re: “contain client facing and tech skills combined”
I bring the requirements from the customer to the engineers! I have PEOPLE SKILLS, dammit!
Juice, I guess you figured out who Eddie is. It’s really funny I was telling my wife and our friends that I’m basically that guy. I used to have a team of engineers stateside who we were forced to get rid of and replace with an offshore team, back when I had a US based team I was intimately involved in the code and what my people were doing. Now I don’t dare ask, I cannot understand these guys and they do not volunteer information. I spend all my time talking to customers because we don’t dare let the client see who is doing the work and no one(at least in this country) can understand a thing they say.
H1B has been really bad, it’s not that these people are particularly effective it’s 60k per year engineers in NY/NJ. I cannot believe the wipro postings at this client site I’m at. The government needs to shut it down, wages for tech at banks have all but evaporated, no one is hiring any more because they can have infosys bring in the bodies. There are more people than before but no one is an employee and no one is American…All imported slaves(Cognizant, HCL, Wipro, TCS, etc).
Juice, I guess you figured out who Eddie is.
Not sure what that means.
re: “contain client facing and tech skills combined”
I bring the requirements from the customer to the engineers! I have PEOPLE SKILLS, dammit!
I’m indicating the you’re the character from Office Space(Tom) who when interviewed by the bobs says the line above.
The most depressing thing about the Indians is that they have never seen the movie Office Space despite basically living it on a daily basis!
Bystander,
Congrats, kind of. Not what you hoped for but better than nothing. IBs are bad news – I always get a feeling every position is temporary. But I never worked for one – almost did. But over the decades I’ve been served by them – and rarely by the same salesperson for more than a few years. Your skillset doesn’t transfer to hedge funds or the buy side, something like that? Stay away from DB btw, – they seem to be imploding.
Grim,
What’s your take on the future prospects for companies like Infosys, Globant, EPAM?
Those Indian meds did not even watch Silicon Valley on HBO.
The Cloud gave us J-Law’s b#ng-hole and now companies are trusting it completely with their (and their clients) data?
Ugh meant nerds
By, ignore the little douchebag twit.
Congrats on the job! I can’t imagine how nerve wracking that search must have been. Happy for you, and good luck.
DB laying off 9k world wide.
Front page NY Times record number of senior citizens filing for bankruptcy. The numbers have tripled since 1991.
Juice,
Ahh, yes. It’s difficult to explain what we do here. I can’t even remotely go into detail. Maybe at a get-together. The learning curve here is about two years. That’s all I can say.
Where’s the community organizer when you need him?
https://www.yahoo.com/news/violent-chicago-weekend-leaves-least-10-dead-dozens-121208743.html
So for all of you in tech being decimated by the H1B thing, is the president going after that? No tech background and don’t even understand what you write on the subject but seems like the jobs would pay a great wage if workers were US citizens. Any guess how many jobs would be created if the H1B thing went away and companies were forced to hire US based workers to do the job?
Congrats ByStander. Hope the new gig carries you for a long time.
3:12 you hate negroes
Forget H1, H4 which is a spouse Visa itself would create 200K plus high tech jobs if cut short..
H1 we are maybe talking close to a Mil…
“Where’s the community organizer when you need him?”
Dancing like a drunk white dude at a wedding. Notice the tagline at the end lol – “CBS Real News”
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BoqG4t03u6g
The progressive left is a mockery.
What’s your take on the future prospects for companies like Infosys, Globant, EPAM?
They are all trying to reinvent themselves as consulting and advisory firms.
Don’t blame the H1 folks, blame the corrupt operators in Washington who are not really trying to solve this problem..
“The Stealth Pension Mortgage on Your House. Real estate is the ultimate collateral for unfunded state public employee retirement obligations.”
Good article. It is mathematical not possible to meet NJ’s pension obligation solely from current taxes. It will take some combination of repudiation, federal bailout, devastating inflation, or wealth tax.
I’m betting wealth tax, and not just on houses.
I don’t blame the people(H1B’s), I blame management and the crooked people getting visa’s. I’ve seen the process, immigration rejects the visa application 4x because it is made up nonsense but eventually INS gives up and approves it. The lawyers win, the company wins the employees lose. We got L1b visas while laying off folks with the exact same skills, you tell me one gets paid 75k and has the threat of deportation on their own dime the other was making 125k?
“The once illegal practice of companies purchasing their own shares is pulling money away from employee compensation, research and development, and other corporate priorities…”
About the author…an avowed politically active leftist working at a hyper-liberal think tank who has had ten jobs in the last 11 years, only two of which were for longer than 18 months and many in local liberal politics….
No wonder it reads like propaganda from some clueless, biased nube with zero real world experience in the matter about which she writes. That’s exactly what she is.
I spent 20 years pitching corporate CFOs on buybacks. To a person, it is the last use to which they want to allocate corporate capital.
Again, buybacks do not ‘choke out’ profitable investment in capital expenditures and human resources.
An increasing prevalence of buybacks demonstrates a lack of availability of profitable capital and human investments.
Getting cause and effect correct. It matters.
Grim – my post that 3b refers in NYT is still in mod from earlier today. What’s holding it back? Is there a list of banned words we can refer to?
Topper, so I think I got jinxed…..
After all the accident discussion my college student was hit while in the costco parking lot on Friday…..
He stopped in lane to let a lady with kids in a shopping cart cross. While he was stopped a 60 year old hit him backing out of a parking space….
LW,
Ouch … that stinks! How is the other party offering to work it out?
I’m the only douchebag twit that is telling him the honest truth. Put me down for that. Should I sit here and lie to him, so he feels better?
Look at how many millionaires increased in jersey over past 8 years. People are making good money out there, don’t lie to yourself. It’s the wages for avg individuals and below that have been killed with the rise in income inequality. People in the top 20% or higher, which bystander is in have been killing it. The higher up the percentage you go, the more they are killing it. Don’t give me this bs that the only raises are for burger flippers, total bs. If this was truly the case, how is income inequality growing if all the gains are going to the bottom.
leftwing says:
August 6, 2018 at 2:43 pm
By, ignore the little douchebag twit.
Congrats on the job! I can’t imagine how nerve wracking that search must have been. Happy for you, and good luck.
Someone inquired about OC NJ and Wildwood earlier. Looks like OC doesn’t offer much in terms of housing on the beach – looks like it’s all after the boardwalk – so you may be in luck. I was looking for something right on the beach. Depending on what you like – if you prefer a bit of a distance from the boardwalk, Wildwood Crest is a pretty nice area. It may be a bit of a hike to the beach if you don’t rent one of the places on the beach.
Any places in Long Branch on the beach folks can recommend?
And now why is this? Why do you have to wait for a bust (when things get really bad) to have a boom again? After answering this, why go through this hellish process when you don’t need to.
I love capitalism, but there is a much better way to do it. I believe hard work should be rewarded, and right now capitalism isn’t rewarding hard work (your evidence is income inequality). To me, that’s a broken capitalist system. Hard work needs to be rewarded. You want to keep working and going nowhere(I’m talking about low and avg income workers) ? That’s a joke and a sign of disease in the system.
“An increasing prevalence of buybacks demonstrates a lack of availability of profitable capital and human investments.
Getting cause and effect correct. It matters.”
Topper, we’ll see. He went in for an estimate right after it happened. Not bad, $1500, but still. He says he wants to make the call to the other driver. Other driver did say it was his fault (ya think) and my guy did take down the lady’s number who offered to support him. My guy’s down the shore but I’ll see him in a rink tonight and find out if he made any progress….
WTF?
https://saraacarter.com/doj-refusing-to-preserve-work-related-emails-from-comeys-private-account/
I don’t which one actually better demonstrates the twit’s idiocy…..
The fact that he continues to respond to and address me directly while I have ignored his postings for nearly a year, or…
The drivel and slop of their content.
Tough choice.
“Pumpkin-free Since October, 2017”
40 years ago somebody told me that there was no place in NJ where auto insurance was cheap because the entire state was classified as urban, and it was the only state classified 100% urban for insurance risk.
Nice piece from Bloomberg on land use, NJ is clearly urban, not suburban.
https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2018-us-land-use/
LW,
That’s real good. Still waiting to hear from the rental car claims on mine. Hopefully you can work your out privately. But, at least you know, it won’t be a din against your son’s (your) record/coverage. (At least we think.) ;) Good luck.
You post information on a blog, I will be sure to debate what I feel is clearly wrong. I could give two craps about “lefty,” but I’ll be sure to knock down the conservative elitism ideas he pushes as fact.
Not looking for a response, just making sure I call out your bs before it’s carried as fact.
That’s an incredible presentation, grim, thanks! Anybody who hasn’t clicked that link and scrolled down is missing out!
That’s why you are such a buffoon, Pumps. Educated people post data, you post uneducated “feelings”.
You post information on a blog, I will be sure to debate what I feel is clearly wrong.
Like your feelings that wages stagnated in 1988.
Congrats Bystander! Thanks for the rundown on the job market, I enjoyed every word.
Thanks, Pat.
No One,
Agree but I tried that route. I spent 6 hours interviewing one day and another 3 for final round but told I was too filtered in my responses for their “culture”. I’ll let you guess which hedge fund that is. What a joke. Clearly I had the rights skills.
Nomad,
The Orange moron set-up some process speed bumps but nothing is really changing with H1B. NJdept nails it with H4. Shut it down. Trump has deferred decision several times. H1B essentially becomes a 2 for 1 deal. Male Indian techies have arranged marriages with female Indian techies. They are set-up for success before ever arriving onshore.
Blumpkin,
F-off and go play in your sandbox. Your “truth” sways with your tiny balls in the wind, depending on the article posted.
wow. My Hunterdon county town is showing zero vacancies. Zilch. I know that’s not true as I pass by one or two foreclosures on my way to town.Not many vacancies, though. Now, why would Peapack and Gladstone have 27 vacancies? Doesn’t make sense. The borough has only a train station and huge estates. Nothing else.
BTW, in my town, you never see a vacancy on a side street. Only ones out there are on the main county road. Busier, but not like Bergen County, et al.
Chinese women are crazy.
Check out the setting on little blue shorts
https://nyp.st/2KtVe9n
The *swing*
Hello. I see that you don’t update your site
too often. I know that writing content is boring and time consuming.
But did you know that there is a tool that allows you to create new posts using existing content (from article directories or other blogs from your
niche)? And it does it very well. The new articles are unique and
pass the copyscape test. You should try miftolo’s tools