Buyers prefer used houses

From the USA Today:

Rising mortgage rates, home prices are becoming a toxic cocktail in the housing market

Rising mortgage rates and continued home price growth are hurting affordability and fast becoming a toxic cocktail for the nation’s homebuilders.

Sentiment among homebuilders dropped 8 points in November to 60 in the National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index. That is the lowest reading since August 2016, but anything above 50 is still considered positive. The index stood at 69 in November of last year and hit a cyclical high of 74 last December.

“Builders report that they continue to see signs of consumer demand for new homes but that customers are taking a pause due to concerns over rising interest rates and home prices,” said NAHB Chairman Randy Noel, a builder from LaPlace, Louisiana.

Of the index’s three components, current sales conditions fell 7 points to 67, sales expectations in the next six months dropped 10 points to 65, and buyer traffic registered an 8-point drop to 45. Buyer traffic had broken out of negative territory earlier this year but now appears to be back in it solidly.

Some of the nation’s largest publicly traded homebuilders, like Lennar and KB Home, lowered their expectations for sales in 2019 in recent earnings releases. There is still a shortage of homes for sale, but newly built homes come at a price premium, and as interest rates rise, new home buyers are consequently hit hardest.

The average rate on the popular 30-year fixed mortgage is now more than a full percentage point higher than it was a year ago. The huge home price gains seen over the last two years are now shrinking, but prices were still up a strong 5.6 percent year over year in September, according to CoreLogic.

“For the past several years, shortages of labor and lots along with rising regulatory costs have led to a slow recovery in single-family construction,” said the NAHB’s chief economist, Robert Dietz. “While home price growth accommodated increasing construction costs during this period, rising mortgage interest rates in recent months coupled with the cumulative run-up in pricing has caused housing demand to stall.”

This entry was posted in Demographics, Economics, Mortgages, National Real Estate, New Development. Bookmark the permalink.

71 Responses to Buyers prefer used houses

  1. Phoenix says:

    First

  2. grim says:

    From the Record:

    While NJ commuters were stranded on highways, Gov. Phil Murphy dined at swanky restaurant

    Thousands of commuters were still stranded on unplowed roads or waiting at a paralyzed Port Authority Bus Terminal when Gov. Phil Murphy and his wife settled into dinner at an upscale restaurant in Red Bank during last Thursday’s storm.

    It had been a long day for the Democratic governor, who had spent the afternoon into the evening scrambling to deal with stronger-than-expected snowfall that officials later admitted they weren’t prepared for, and Restaurant Nicholas, located a mile from his house, was an inviting and convenient option.

    The New York Times, in a glowing four-star review in 2006, raved that the lobster, served over a homemade lemon-zest pappardelle, was “outstandingly sweet and tender.” The dinner menu starts at $75 per person, while the bar menu is somewhat more affordable, according to the restaurant’s website.

    Outside, however, New Jersey was gripped by seemingly unending mayhem, and Murphy’s decision to dine in luxury around 8 or 9 p.m. that evening may strike many in New Jersey as tone-deaf — akin to former Gov. Chris Christie lounging with his family and friends on a state beach closed to the public during a government shutdown.

    It also risks painting Murphy, a wealthy former Goldman Sachs executive who owns at least three homes and reported $6.8 million in income last year, as out of touch with the experience of everyday residents.

    “People will see this as somebody who works for a living gets to sit in traffic and somebody who has got a lot of money and is the governor gets to sit and have a nice dinner,” said Hank Sheinkopf, a New York-based political consultant who works mostly with Democrats.

  3. D-FENS says:

    This is the second snow storm on Murphy’s watch where people had to be rescued by snowmobiles on 287.

    The majority of registered voters in NJ did not participate in the last election. Hope it was worth it.

  4. Grim says:

    Quite possibly the worst statewide gridlock ever.

  5. Bruiser says:

    Do they allow backwards baseball caps in Restaurant Nicholas?

  6. chicagofinance says:

    “L1beral1sm is like going to a nvde beach. It sounds good till you get there”

    Dennis Miller

  7. chicagofinance says:

    Reminds me that I have a $200 gift card to spend there…… any suggestions?

    Bruiser says:
    November 20, 2018 at 8:40 am
    Do they allow backwards baseball caps in Restaurant Nicholas?

  8. Juice Box says:

    Restaurant Nicholas – a mile from my house too. Overrated but the rich do need a place to dine without the riff raff.

  9. Bruiser says:

    [i]Reminds me that I have a $200 gift card to spend there…… any suggestions?[/i]

    I wouldn’t know. Not my kind of place, and nowhere near my neighborhood. But be sure to kick Smilin’Phil in the ball$ for us all when you see him. A punch in the mouth would be an improvement.

  10. Fast Eddie says:

    Did Murphy know which bathroom to use in that restaurant while the state was in chaos?

  11. Blue Ribbon Teacher says:

    I was in South Philly over the weekend. There was a gigantic billboard that literally said, “the more you vote, the more you get”

  12. Blue Ribbon Teacher says:

    The migrant’s are complaining about their meals being given to them in Tijuana. Wtf, it looks like the lunch I packed yesterday. Refried beans and 2 tortillas. To be fair, I also sprinkled some cheese on it as well.

    https://dailycaller.com/2018/11/19/migrant-complains-free-food/

  13. 3b says:

    2018 stock market gains are gone.

  14. testing says:

    Get ready for some Real Estate decline accelerating if stock keeps going down like this..

  15. Blue Ribbon Teacher says:

    Maybe my call of market top at the end of last year was right after all.

  16. Libturd...look me up in Costa Rica says:

    I ate at Nicholas about 10 years ago. I would best describe it as precocious. The food is very good, but not terribly creative. Essentially, whatever was IN at the time was on their menu. If I recall correctly, it was pine nuts and zucchini blossoms. The deconstructed this and that and the foam movement had not yet occurred. And yes, it was better than probably every other restaurant in Monmouth/Ocean County, but not 3 times better, which is how it was priced. I imagine their menu today is heavy avocado, kale, sea salt and sustainable sea-to-table. Will have to take a look to confirm my suspicion.

  17. Libturd...look me up in Costa Rica says:

    IMO, this is FAANG blowing off (which we all knew it would except for Pumps who thought this was the new tomorrow) combined with a true fear of another housing crisis. As you all know, Wall Street took it on the chin (albeit temporarily) the last time housing turned. Those fears are still recent enough to spook the industry. Then throw in the FEDs continued need to raise interest rates and you get to where we are today. Believe me, I’m dying to pull some of my money out, but it’s too little too late at this point. Especially since I expect things to rebound rapidly in the near future.

    If you look at the names that REALLY dropped, there are few industrials among them.

  18. Grim says:

    Let’s bus the migrants to Nicolas for a proper dinner.

  19. Libturd...look me up in Costa Rica says:

    That will probably be Murph’s solution.

  20. Libturd...look me up in Costa Rica says:

    Damnit! Bone marrow and sunchoke and pork belly and (of course) kale. See how hip they are?

  21. 3b says:

    Housing price correction long over due. Low rates prevented the full correction.

  22. chicagofinance says:

    I finally tracked him down….. JJ is in florida….
    https://nypost.com/2018/11/20/sick-man-admits-to-having-sex-with-pony-deputies/

  23. The Great Pumpkin says:

    It’s nothing more than market psychology at play due to the big boys playing off self induced fear. Give me all the apple and amazon I can get at these prices. These companies are the future and if you can’t see it, you are blind. It’s insane that apple posted their best earnings ever, and got slammed because the iPhone didn’t sell like wall st wanted to. The stock market is clearly not rational in the short term and that’s the bottom line.

    Just remember what happened with the Great Depression, that damage was mostly self induced and driven by the madness of panic. If you look at the stock market growth long term, you should not ever worry about selling until you retire. When the market panics, take advantage and buy, and you have a simple formula to come out ahead. No need to over complicate it, like everyone does. Cramer and the likes, are nothing more than pure gamblers.

    “IMO, this is FAANG blowing off (which we all knew it would except for Pumps who thought this was the new tomorrow) combined with a true fear of another housing crisis.”

  24. Libturd...look me up in Costa Rica says:

    Amazon, perhaps. AAPL is done for a short(?) while.

  25. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Why? Did we have huge appreciation across the board, in all areas, or a select few? So why should we expect prices to go down in most areas when their prices are not much off of 2013 prices? I just can’t see a major price correction, it doesn’t make much sense. It truly does not make any sense at all.

    3b says:
    November 20, 2018 at 11:09 am
    Housing price correction long over due. Low rates prevented the full correction.

  26. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Why? You really think Apple is dead? Look at the pounding this stock just took and it’s still one of the companies sitting on a huge pile of cash, waiting strategically to make their moves. The growth of their subscription models is fantastic. Bottom line, they put out a damn good overall product. People just love to hate on them. Try to bash the stock any way they can.

    Being that you don’t even like apple now, tells me the blood in the street is here. It’s a buying opportunity for the long term.

    Libturd…look me up in Costa Rica says:
    November 20, 2018 at 11:18 am
    Amazon, perhaps. AAPL is done for a short(?) while.

  27. The Great Pumpkin says:

    “The best investors are buying Apple
    Notably, Warren Buffett, CEO of megaconglomerate Berkshire Hathaway — and perhaps the world’s best value-focused investor — recently said that he’d “love to own 100%” of Apple. Apple is far too large for that to happen, so Buffett has been doing the next best thing: steadily increasing Berkshire’s stake in this still-undervalued business. In fact, Apple is now the largest holding in Berkshire Hathaway’s $200 billion investment portfolio.

    Individual investors may wish to consider buying alongside Buffett and begin — or add to — their stakes in Apple today.”

  28. Libturd...look me up in Costa Rica says:

    I’m not sure why I am debating stock picks with you, but the reasoning is as follows. There has not been a single innovation (really since Jobs croaked) to the iPhone platform that has not developed on the Android platform first. The iPhone X has been a failure. $200 more is too much to ask for a phone with next to no significant improvement over the base model. It’s reached the point where this lack of innovation is resulting in people maintaining their iPhones for longer and longer periods of time. The revelation of the planned battery obsolescence (or intention slowing down of the processor as Apple calls it) just added fuel to the lack of trust fire. Quite frankly, the only reason iPhone continued to maintain juicy margins recently was due to their new every year plan which drove most users away from their former carriers and to purchase iPhones (plus protection plans) directly from Apple. That one trick pony is at the glue factory now.

    If you recall the smart phone cycle, it went iPhone, to Android, back to iPhone and is swinging back to Android again.

    Then in the less lucrative computer business, Chromebooks have replaced the iMac in schools. The next generation are not Apple addicts. They are perfectly content with the Chrome platform. The excuse of seamless integration across a platform which Apple promotes to sell products across their spectrum will no longer be there if kids coming up are all on Chromebooks. Add in the fact that the last major MacBook innovation (that stupid customizable touch strip) and questionable laptop reliability, where it used to be a selling point, are not going to drive sales. Also, my grandmother now has an iMac and an iPhone and an iPad.

    So where is the growth going to come from? You can’t name a single innovation under Cook. It’s a problem.

    My brother has owned his Apple stock for the past 7 years. He sold it ALL a week ago.

  29. Libturd...look me up in Costa Rica says:

    Berkshire made it’s monstrous gains in insurance and reinsurance. Comparably, it has never performed well with technology. Sad to see Buffet abandoning one of the tenets that got him to where he is today. “Is the business simple and understandable.”

  30. Blue Ribbon Teacher says:

    I’m taking a lot of my ARLP off the table. I love the 10% yearly dividends but I’m not going to continue to keep the majority of my holdings in 1 company. I am in to MO & PM…nicotine is unstoppable at this point. Might park a large part of it in cash to wait to make a move.

  31. Blue Ribbon Teacher says:

    Also, my grandmother now has an iMac and an iPhone and an iPad.

    Stringer Bell

  32. texting says:

    Pumpkin, many reasons for AAPL

    1- their products are now boring
    2-low cost competitors are eating to iphone market
    3- They don’t have any interesting future stuff. Like self-driving cars or cloud hosting or AI,
    4- Because you always post using your iphone applenews, means it will go down..

  33. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Lib,

    Hasn’t apple moved away from basing their company on the iPhone? iPhone sales sucked, yet their profits hit an all time high.

    I like to invest in what I buy. I have bought a bunch of apple products out there because it’s simple, easy to use, and it works (have an iPad from 2011 that still works fine…unheard of in tech). The computer nerds hate apple and are obsessed with bashing it. I don’t know how many times in the past 10 years I have heard android fan boys and their bs.

    I think I represent the typical buyer. If you can afford it, you go apple.

    No innovation? The Apple Watch is insane. Going to change our world. Stop focusing on the iPhone as the deciding factor in this company. It’s not.

  34. Bystander says:

    Blumpkin is just a fool in moron’s clothing whose grand 2019 predictions are instead heading for the Big D. He’ll get roaring 2020 alright, around a fire drum.

  35. 3b says:

    Pumps I will answer your question in great detail as I have in the past and the answer will be consistent as it always has been. And then you will proceed to tell me I am wrong. No thanks.

  36. Libturd...look me up in Costa Rica says:

    Roaring 20s and AAPL:

    https://bit.ly/2TzCXgC

  37. Libturd...look me up in Costa Rica says:

    Crude is down 5%+ today. Hmmm.

  38. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Crude being down should lead the fed to not raise rates. If anything, this drop in oil prices should strengthen the economy, not hurt it. I just don’t get why the headlines and power players are trying to force a recession, but that’s exactly what they are doing. I just hope the strength of this economy and the fundamentals prove them wrong once again. They have played this game every single year since at least 2012/13. This bull market can’t continue…blah blah blah. Look at all these threats to the economy…blah blah blah.

    I’ll believe it when I actually see that the economy shows fundamentals of overheating like strong inflation and over investment in production in the euphoric kind of way. I see only tamed inflation, healthy wage inflation, strong consumer demand, ultra low tax environment, strong coming spending patterns by the two biggest demographic groups in our economy, and the strongest job market in my life (low unemployment without out of control wage inflation). This stuff matters to me, not the bs noise they try to feed the masses on a daily basis. A bunch of unwarranted fear being consumed.

  39. The Great Pumpkin says:

    This is a healthy economy people!

  40. Bystander says:

    As someone else pointed out years ago, the need for low rates is sign economy is weak, not sign of strength. That a few ticks up by Fed has entire market shaking should tell any imbecile that something is wrong..but you are no regular imbecile.

  41. Bystander says:

    I detailed a job search at MasterCard recently. I did phone screen end of July for a PM job. Turned it down as I got another offer and they said no rush to hire. My buddy has been looking since August. Same line of work. MC called him in Sept for exact same job, same manager. They said just starting candidate search to him…BS. He interviewed in October and they keep telling him that they are still deciding as of Monday. He has nothing else in works and freaking out. Strong economy? Sure, Blumpy.

  42. Libturd...look me up in Costa Rica says:

    The economy is very, very strong for the wealthy who benefited greatly from Trump’s corporate tax cuts. I’m still waiting to see how they helped me. Off to a meeting.

  43. The Great Pumpkin says:

    It’s because people are taking an overly cautious approach. Simple as that. They can afford it, don’t kid yourself. That’s why a recession is probably not coming for a long time….people are simply not drunk off euphoria. When you see joe public making a killing, then it’s a sign of peak. I see none of that. I don’t hear any regular joe schmoe claiming how well they are doing with said investment. Only thing is 401 k, and that’s on cruise control, not impacted by emotion. I see no signs of a market top, I simply see people scared and cautious, not out of control.

    Bystander says:
    November 20, 2018 at 1:44 pm
    As someone else pointed out years ago, the need for low rates is sign economy is weak, not sign of strength. That a few ticks up by Fed has entire market shaking should tell any imbecile that something is wrong..but you are no regular imbecile.

  44. 30 year realtor says:

    I do not see a substantial give back in the North Jersey real estate market coming any time soon. Most of North Jersey has not recovered to pre-crash levels. Prices have increased in fits and starts since 2012. Likely to have a little down and a lot of sideways until wage inflation eventually kicks in.

    Pumpkin, please do not construe my reference to wage inflation to have anything to do with you and your predictions. Please do not twist what I have written to be any affirmation of anything you have ever said. Keep predicting the same things over and over again and the broken clock theory eventually kicks in.

  45. Bystander says:

    What you call ‘cautious’, I see as lack of commitment. Economy looks good on paper but now when you have to pay up to keep it going, the card house collapses. I deal with it every day. When management sees cheaper alternatives to their local labor pool, they will hire only strategically (ie lightly) in a higher cost location. Job postings are a placeholder while management figures out low cost strategy. If cheap outsourcer can do it in timeframe they need then that is preferred route. If they can do it in St. Louis over NYC then that is the next option . If they can’t find talent in St. Louis then they pay up in NYC..or scrap it. MC is trying to figure it out and more likely waiting on management to give direction and most importantly, budget. 6 months to fill a vacant job…my buddy is stuck. Not sign of strong, white collar job market.

  46. D-FENS says:

    Pssssst…guess what…by most measures you are rich…

    Libturd…look me up in Costa Rica says:
    November 20, 2018 at 1:57 pm
    The economy is very, very strong for the wealthy who benefited greatly from Trump’s corporate tax cuts. I’m still waiting to see how they helped me. Off to a meeting.

  47. Libturd...look me up in Costa Rica says:

    Shut-up D! I know this.

  48. D-FENS says:

    Quantitative Tightening at $50 billion/month right now…plus rising interest rates…

    The Trump economy is paying for the Obama economy. If strength continues…I’d say that shows how strong the economy really is…

  49. D-FENS says:

    I don’t know why this made me LOL. Residents of Florida should appreciate this.

    https://twitter.com/WhiteHouse/status/1064967688143941632

  50. chicagofinance says:

    Yeah…. pretty fcuked up….. less than a mile from my house…. my 12 year old son called me from home in a panic.

    Monmouth County prosecutor not disclosing details yet. Those kids were absent from school today……

  51. chicagofinance says:

    Kids that died go to my daughter’s elementary school…… not sure what is going to happen…..

  52. Libturd...look me up in Costa Rica says:

    Can’t be a mob hit. They leave the children alone.

  53. Juice Box says:

    Turd – movie lore definitely not true, just like that other myth they don’t traffic in drugs.

  54. Juice Box says:

    Posted twice with links to NJ.com did not post, their pool is still open to me that usually means money or domestic problems…

  55. Juice Box says:

    QE/and QT. It’s a world wide punch bowl…what happens when they take the punch away.. As always they tinker as it is always a hypothesis.

    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-07-09/after-years-of-easing-meet-quantitative-tightening-quicktake

  56. leftwing says:

    Chi, crazy. That’s right near CBA?

    Juice, props on the observation. Looks like leaves on the bottom. May be both…

  57. Juice Box says:

    Bernake says we do not have the right tools for the next craSH…

    https://finance.yahoo.com/video/former-fed-chair-ben-bernanke-202903627.html

  58. chicagofinance says:

    The kids that passed are each one year behind mine. Each has the teacher my kids had last year. My daughter’s school is having an all staff meeting tomorrow AM.

    Juice Box says:
    November 20, 2018 at 6:54 pm
    Posted twice with links to NJ.com did not post, their pool is still open to me that usually means money or domestic problems…

  59. chicagofinance says:

    If you know where Colts Neck Pizza is (use Google Maps)….. the place is walking distance…..

    leftwing says:
    November 20, 2018 at 7:04 pm
    Chi, crazy. That’s right near CBA?

    Juice, props on the observation. Looks like leaves on the bottom. May be both…

  60. Juice Box says:

    Strange, news reports that the home of the brother of now deceased Colts Neck home owner was also on fire today early this morning in Ocean Township.

    Disgruntled employee perhaps?

    https://6abc.com/colts-neck-mansion-fire-2-children-2-adults-found-dead/4727054/

  61. leftwing says:

    “Libturd…look me up in Costa Rica says:
    November 20, 2018 at 12:00 pm
    I’m not sure why I am debating stock picks with you…”

    ^^^The single most relevant point…you are trying to logically debate the market with someone who not only actually purchased penny stocks as a middle aged man but vociferously defended such purchase for weeks….you’re better than that Lib.

  62. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Let’s make a one year call on apple. One year from now this was low buy..today. If I’m wrong, I’ll stop posting here. If I’m right, you will admit the reason your wife left you is because you have a little d!ck.

    leftwing says:
    November 20, 2018 at 7:21 pm
    “Libturd…look me up in Costa Rica says:
    November 20, 2018 at 12:00 pm
    I’m not sure why I am debating stock picks with you…”

    ^^^The single most relevant point…you are trying to logically debate the market with someone who not only actually purchased penny stocks as a middle aged man but vociferously defended such purchase for weeks….you’re better than that Lib.

  63. leftwing says:

    Holiday exemption to being “Pumpkin Free Since October, 2017″….

    I’ve made more money over the last three months with my hard documented calls on here and the short recommendations I solicited from intelligent investors like Lib and Ex than you will most assuredly make in the next five years from all sources, pancake-in-a-can man, lol.

    So run off and file your useless multiyear up/down calls so you can assuage your multiple insecurities and personality disorders by endlessly reminding everyone how ‘right’ you are every day there’s an uptick. That is of course unless you’re in real emotional need on those Saturday nights when you’re all alone and post your wife’s s3xual proclivities.

    And BTW opie my ex- just celebrated ten years sober. Proud of her.

  64. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Hopefully you don’t give it all back…

    leftwing says:
    November 20, 2018 at 8:23 pm
    Holiday exemption to being “Pumpkin Free Since October, 2017″….

    I’ve made more money over the last three months with my hard documented calls on here and the short recommendations I solicited from intelligent investors like Lib and Ex than you will most assuredly make in the next five years from all sources, pancake-in-a-can man, lol.

  65. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Short apple if you have some balls…..and I’m a mumbling idiot. Go against pumps!

  66. The Great Pumpkin says:

    30 year says it more elegantly, but my post states the exact same assessment of the market.

    The Great Pumpkin says:
    November 20, 2018 at 11:24 am
    Why? Did we have huge appreciation across the board, in all areas, or a select few? So why should we expect prices to go down in most areas when their prices are not much off of 2013 prices? I just can’t see a major price correction, it doesn’t make much sense. It truly does not make any sense at all.

    3b says:
    November 20, 2018 at 11:09 am
    Housing price correction long over due. Low rates prevented the full correction.

    30 year realtor says:
    November 20, 2018 at 2:08 pm
    I do not see a substantial give back in the North Jersey real estate market coming any time soon. Most of North Jersey has not recovered to pre-crash levels. Prices have increased in fits and starts since 2012. Likely to have a little down and a lot of sideways until wage inflation eventually kicks in.

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