The big slow continues

From CNBC:

Home price gains shrink to the lowest level since January 2017: September S&P Case-Shiller index

Home values are still rising, but the gains have now shrunk to the lowest level since January 2017, as rising mortgage rates cut into affordability.

Prices increased 5.5 percent annually in September, down from 5.7 percent in August, according to the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price Index. The 10-City Composite annual increase came in at 4.8 percent, down from 5.2 percent in the previous month. The 20-City Composite rose 5.1 percent year-over-year, down from 5.5 in the previous month.

“Home prices plus data on house sales and construction confirm the slowdown in housing,” says David M. Blitzer, managing director and chairman of the Index Committee at S&P Dow Jones Indices. “One factor contributing to the weaker housing market is the recent increase in mortgage rates.”

The average rate on the 30-year fixed mortgage is now a full percentage point higher than it was one year ago, and affordability has fallen to the weakest level in over a decade. Blitzer also pointed to weaker sales of both new and existing single family homes, which peaked one year ago in November 2017.

“Sales of existing homes are down 9.3 percent from that peak. Housing starts are down 8.7 percent from November of last year. The National Association of Home Builders sentiment index dropped seven points to 60, its lowest level in two years,” Blitzer added.

This entry was posted in Demographics, Economics, Employment, Mortgages, National Real Estate. Bookmark the permalink.

168 Responses to The big slow continues

  1. D-FENS says:

    “the big slow”….I like that

  2. D-FENS says:

    BTW, what’s the prediction this time… in some previous cycles, I recall rising interest rates coincided with rising prices…despite conventional wisdom. Will it happen this way again?

  3. 3b says:

    This is a good thing.

  4. chicagofinance says:

    people should be pairing back a bit….. being careful…. not go into hibernation, just avoid being a drunken sailor….. fat chance…

    what we are seeing is cash out refi’s where people are tapping home equity and refi’ing at higher rates….. wonderful…

    D-FENS says:
    November 27, 2018 at 10:38 am
    BTW, what’s the prediction this time… in some previous cycles, I recall rising interest rates coincided with rising prices…despite conventional wisdom. Will it happen this way again?

  5. chicagofinance says:

    U.S. existing home sales have declined on an annual basis for eight straight months, the longest slump in more than four years, according to the National Association of Realtors report Wednesday. The slowdown has been driven by places that had earlier seen some of the strongest price growth during this recovery, including Seattle, Denver, New York City, Boston and the Bay Area.

    Dallas, which had the second-strongest annual increase in employment of any metropolitan area in the country in September, helps explain why. Even though the economy in the sprawling metro area has boomed, home prices have grown much faster than wages, and buyers have been straining to afford homes.

    Those price challenges have been masked in part by access to cheap credit, but that era is coming to an end. Since the beginning of the year, mortgage rates have risen about a percentage point, to the highest level since 2011.

    “We have this huge affordability crisis,” said Ted Wilson, principal at Residential Strategies, a Dallas consulting firm. “With mortgage rates going higher, we’re hitting a ceiling.”

  6. 3b says:

    People can and will lower their asking prices if they really want to sell. Lower prices will address the affordability issue. There was a time not l that long ago when a7.75 30 year fixed rate mortgage was attractive!

  7. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Whether you acknowledge it or not, wage inflation has hit most of the economy. To say not, is just going against me for the sake of argument. Do remember how stagnant wages were at the time of my calls? You were lucky to have a job.

    Blue Ribbon Teacher says:
    November 26, 2018 at 6:38 pm
    I didn’t get the name “Great Pumpkin” for no reason. It was given to me by Lib because he thought my calls would never come. I annoyed this board for years with my calls, go look it up. I gave specific years too. So don’t sit here and accuse me of making up my calls after the fact.

    Wage inflation never came. And if it ever does in nominal terms, it will lag real assets.

  8. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Blue,

    As for specific stock calls, you heard mine last week. Buy all the amazon and apple you can afford. We are at the bottom for those stocks. They got hammered. Buying opportunity now.

  9. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Only a sucker sells into this by panic selling and lowering their price. These prices are supported. Maybe not for growth, but they for sure have a huge support level at current pricing. These scared buyers will leave the sideline next spring/summer, or the following year. That’s when they will push prices to their next high and lows.

    3b says:
    November 27, 2018 at 12:08 pm
    People can and will lower their asking prices if they really want to sell. Lower prices will address the affordability issue. There was a time not l that long ago when a7.75 30 year fixed rate mortgage was attractive!

  10. JCer says:

    pumps, GM axing 15k people does not look or sound promising……..If this is a sign of things to come a 2020 recession looks more likely than the roaring 2020’s.

  11. ExEssex says:

    12:32 puulllleaze….they’ll continue to languish.

  12. ExEssex says:

    12:04 – watch condos they usually languish first.

  13. The Great Pumpkin says:

    I know this sounds crazy, but I’m hoping for a recession. It will guarantee my prediction. The recession will strengthen this coming run even more, imo.

    JCer says:
    November 27, 2018 at 12:39 pm
    pumps, GM axing 15k people does not look or sound promising……..If this is a sign of things to come a 2020 recession looks more likely than the roaring 2020’s.

  14. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Jcer,

    By the way, did you hear the excuse from GM CEO for doing it while the economy is so strong? They are trying to survive long term, it’s actually a good move.

  15. Blue Ribbon Teacher says:

    Whether you acknowledge it or not, wage inflation has hit most of the economy. To say not, is just going against me for the sake of argument. Do remember how stagnant wages were at the time of my calls? You were lucky to have a job.

    What assets have wages gained on ?

  16. Blue Ribbon Teacher says:

    As for specific stock calls, you heard mine last week. Buy all the amazon and apple you can afford. We are at the bottom for those stocks. They got hammered. Buying opportunity now.

    Ok noted, just let us know when you buy.

    The past two days, I’ve bought MO, PM, and BGS. And by bought, I mean 10% of my net worth went into them.

  17. Bystander says:

    Funny, last month it was low inventory that was driving prices higher. Now, we have affordability crisis. Real estate pigs can’t keep story straight, similar to Blumpkin and his idiotic ramblings. “Why are rich folks causing a recession?” “Ok a recession is good now” Carnac the moronic.

  18. 3b says:

    No prices are not supported by the current environment save low interest rates which are now going away and which is exposing the prices for what they are or were inflated because of low rates.

  19. The Great Pumpkin says:

    F off! How do you think the stock market works? Long term, it’s based on fundamentals, short term it’s based on the feelings of rich folks who control the market with their moves. Economy is stupid strong, my friend.

    “Why are rich folks causing a recession?”

  20. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Oh give me a break with this crap. People aren’t buying because they are scared prices might fall and the impact of salt. Simple as that. They can still afford a 1 pt increase in rates when they are getting 3% or high raises on an asset that is pretty much stagnating in price.

    3b says:
    November 27, 2018 at 1:01 pm
    No prices are not supported by the current environment save low interest rates which are now going away and which is exposing the prices for what they are or were inflated because of low rates.

  21. ExEssex says:

    In a note to clients, Credit Suisse wrote, “We are not optimistic on housing, but the level of concern has become excessive,” citing accelerating income growth and low vacancy rates.

    “The most likely scenario for housing is a soft landing, not a recessionary slowdown. With fiscal stimulus and a strong labor market boosting growth, the Fed should take comfort that rate hikes have traction slowing part of the economy. Rather than cause a recession, some managed weakness in housing may actually prolong the current recovery,” according to Credit Suisse.

    Home price growth in September slowed for the sixth month in a row, reaching its lowest level since January 2017, and there’s no questioning the market’s downward trend. Still, Goldman Sachs believes that national average price appreciation will remain positive overall. In a recent note, Goldman reiterated its belief in a “soft landing,” pointing out that housing supply is still at historically low levels.

  22. chicagofinance says:

    i-Banks are always going to write “soft landing”…. all opinions are calibrated across the bank, and the transaction guys don’t want the stuffed shirts spooking the deer…..

    ExEssex says:
    November 27, 2018 at 1:32 pm
    In a note to clients, Credit Suisse wrote, “We are not optimistic on housing, but the level of concern has become excessive,” citing accelerating income growth and low vacancy rates.

    “The most likely scenario for housing is a soft landing, not a recessionary slowdown. With fiscal stimulus and a strong labor market boosting growth, the Fed should take comfort that rate hikes have traction slowing part of the economy. Rather than cause a recession, some managed weakness in housing may actually prolong the current recovery,” according to Credit Suisse.

    Home price growth in September slowed for the sixth month in a row, reaching its lowest level since January 2017, and there’s no questioning the market’s downward trend. Still, Goldman Sachs believes that national average price appreciation will remain positive overall. In a recent note, Goldman reiterated its belief in a “soft landing,” pointing out that housing supply is still at historically low levels.

  23. chicagofinance says:

    They are scared that they might permanently ruin their lives with a serious financial mistake….. like my neighbor who bought at the top of the market, then Trump’s SALT limitation kicked in, now he had dumped another $250,000 or so into the place with a gut upgrade…… my best advice to him under my breath is “don’t lose your job at all costs”…… he better love the place, because he is going to need at least 10 years to dig himself out, if ever…..

    The Great Pumpkin says:
    November 27, 2018 at 1:18 pm
    Oh give me a break with this crap. People aren’t buying because they are scared prices might fall and the impact of salt. Simple as that. They can still afford a 1 pt increase in rates when they are getting 3% or high raises on an asset that is pretty much stagnating in price.

    3b says:
    November 27, 2018 at 1:01 pm
    No prices are not supported by the current environment save low interest rates which are now going away and which is exposing the prices for what they are or were inflated because of low rates.

  24. Blue Ribbon Teacher says:

    I know a handful of former colleagues that took a $100,00 hit by buying in the 2005 to 2007 period. Whether they realized it by selling or were forced to wait out the market in some fashion, the loss is real. Some ended up moving out and renting the home. And when you are only making $60k a year, that’s a major setback in your life.

    Quite often, they jumped the gun and bought prior to marriage thinking when they get married, they’ll just sell and post a profit.

  25. texting says:

    Not sure where the slowdown is but where I’m looking in south bergen, houses selling within 1 week at above or listing price.. WTF

  26. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Do you guys understand that this cool down in appreciation is a good thing long term? If house prices went out of control, there would be no shot in hell of my call of “roaring 20’s 2.0” as it would hijack the economic growth from the rest of the economy.

    Some of you are complete haters of real estate. It’s truly amazing. Real estate is what provided the foundation for so many families to score a middle class or higher lifestyle. Just pure haters.

  27. Bystander says:

    We really need a psychiatrist for Blump. Should be a separate donate button on top. Every $20 raised means 20 less ramblings per day, which all boil down to ‘but, but..I am smart! Daddy said so through the glass’

  28. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Belittle the guy for being right….cool.

    Have I not repeated this over and over on this blog? Inventory is too tight, economy too strong, and wage inflation too strong to have a crash in real estate pricing. Just no way, no how.

    “The most likely scenario for housing is a soft landing, not a recessionary slowdown. With fiscal stimulus and a strong labor market boosting growth, the Fed should take comfort that rate hikes have traction slowing part of the economy. Rather than cause a recession, some managed weakness in housing may actually prolong the current recovery,” according to Credit Suisse.

    Home price growth in September slowed for the sixth month in a row, reaching its lowest level since January 2017, and there’s no questioning the market’s downward trend. Still, Goldman Sachs believes that national average price appreciation will remain positive overall. In a recent note, Goldman reiterated its belief in a “soft landing,” pointing out that housing supply is still at historically low levels.

    Bystander says:
    November 27, 2018 at 2:25 pm
    We really need a psychiatrist for Blump. Should be a separate donate button on top. Every $20 raised means 20 less ramblings per day, which all boil down to ‘but, but..I am smart! Daddy said so through the glass

  29. The Great Pumpkin says:

    If housing went down 20%, how long before the buyers on the sideline buy it up and return pricing up 20%? Better yet, if homes drop 20%, why wouldn’t the legions of investors searching hard for somewhere to invest not swoop in and eat up that 20% drop(gift) for themselves?

    Pricing is not dropping anytime soon. Bank it.

  30. The Great Pumpkin says:

    It’s fine, let the economy work it’s way through it. Let the price catch up to the consumer. Simple as that. It’s no crisis. Can easily be solved with one or two years of stagnant pricing. Then wages should be able to carry it to the next levels of pricing. This level of pricing, once it is gone, you will never see pricing at these current levels in your life again.

    “We have this huge affordability crisis,” said Ted Wilson, principal at Residential Strategies, a Dallas consulting firm. “With mortgage rates going higher, we’re hitting a ceiling.”

  31. 3b says:

    I have seen it before lil pumps unlike yourself. Fed came in and put a floor under the drop in prices just delaying the process. Rates are rising now and they will finish the job. It’s a good thing!

  32. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Do you really think the fed would be raising rates if it would send real estate prices crashing along with the rest of the economy? Use your head here.

    What I think we are finally seeing, the fed and market participants in general, have a better control over the movement of the economy. The last crash hurt so bad, people have been overly cautious with their investments. If this current economy hit in the year 2000, we would be dead because insane speculation would currently overheat and crash the economy. I see none of it currently. Absolutely nothing, but fear. No CRASH IS COMING. Fear is still in control and has been for how long? Every year the economy is crashing to these people. I guess one year they are going to get it right eventually.

  33. The Great Pumpkin says:

    They are talking about it on a national level. NJ has no chance to go down, because we didn’t see the large appreciation that other areas experienced over the past 7 years. Only a few parts of nj experienced it. I’m very confident that nj will soon be leading the way in appreciation on a national level. Other areas 7 years ago looked like a complete bargain in comparison to nj, now no way in hell. Nj looks like a bargain now and price appreciation in nj will reflect that in the coming years.

    texting says:
    November 27, 2018 at 1:59 pm
    Not sure where the slowdown is but where I’m looking in south bergen, houses selling within 1 week at above or listing price.. WTF

  34. Bystander says:

    Stagnation, Blumpy. Get used to it. Wage inflation eaten up by rising health care costs and taxes. Surely posing as more money in the everyman’s pocket on some dilletante/economist’s moonlit theories. You also have clearly never managed resourcing or budgeting for any semi-large corporation. You would see the hatred for the American worker. Your eyes would open up that maybe growth locally will be divided globally, particularly when low cost labor areas are easier than ever to access for any company, big or small. Again, we have never witnessed a heavy inflationary environment without a core manufacturing base to push the hand of corp management. Strictly thinking that patriotism will provide a big bump for US workers is beyond foolish. Govt will need to force the hand this time via legislation, punishing outsourcing and raising h1 wage minimum. When that happens, talk to me about roaring 20s. Of course, stocks will nose dive as labor costs eat profit.

  35. 3b says:

    The Fed has done it before. You simply can’t have a low rate environment forever. And if the economy was as strong as you say the rate hikes should be no big deal but they are apparently. As for NJ it’s over priced over taxed and over regulated. That’s not changing.

  36. The Great Pumpkin says:

    It’s basically happening already. Trumpism is not going anywhere.

    It’s only a matter of time before outsourcing is seen for what it truly is…selling out your country to make an easy buck. That era is coming slowly to an end.

    Bottom line, this trend over the last 40 of offshoring could never last. As the famous Perot quote had stated, “giant sucking sound,”it will eat America alive till there is nothing left. Not going to happen and you see the tides changing rapidly thanks to trump. People have woke up and smelled the coffee. Besides, how can you continue to sell high priced goods to American consumers if you are taking away their jobs? Just stupidity all over and I think people have learned their lesson. There is no such thing as a free lunch, everything has a cost.

    “Govt will need to force the hand this time via legislation, punishing outsourcing and raising h1 wage minimum.”

  37. 3b says:

    Texting that will end too.

  38. The Great Pumpkin says:

    He has my vote.

    Donald J. Trump
    Donald J. Trump
    @realDonaldTrump
    ….for electric cars. General Motors made a big China bet years ago when they built plants there (and in Mexico) – don’t think that bet is going to pay off. I am here to protect America’s Workers!

  39. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Donald J. Trump
    Donald J. Trump
    @realDonaldTrump
    ·
    5h
    Very disappointed with General Motors and their CEO, Mary Barra, for closing plants in Ohio, Michigan and Maryland. Nothing being closed in Mexico & China. The U.S. saved General Motors, and this is the THANKS we get! We are now looking at cutting all
    @GM
    subsidies, including….

  40. Blue Ribbon Teacher says:

    Sounds good to me. GM shouldn’t be getting subsidies in the first place. Neither should any profitable business. America would be so much better if we outlawed subsidies.

  41. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Totally beat the hell out of this stock. Evidence of an irrational market in the short term.

    “Mi­crosoft Corp. briefly un­seated long­time ri­val Apple Inc. on Tues­day as the world’s most valu­able com­pany, re­flect­ing in­vestors’ faith in its re­vival un­der Chief Ex­ec­u­tive Satya Nadella while the iPhone maker ad­justs to slow­ing mo­men­tum for its most prof­itable prod­uct.”

    https://www.wsj.com/articles/microsoft-closes-in-on-apple-as-worlds-most-valuable-company-1543355346?emailToken=cf5551085c1ab8de974aefa0413b1a10Z1apA0/t950vq3ytmCtneWCetgXXwcaT2IMfMaSqDh/u6vvhUbIQ1FVYCv4G7CrIxX0siUo90aSWm6TMQFXk5b2uLclPq/gGuCNqeEKwLU2V8cH9uEx/0i4IuTiIPLPg&reflink=article_copyURL_share

  42. Libturd and ExPat in Costa Rica says:

    In a small B&B in San Jose. No issue with my impossible rental car price at Alamo, and LDW waiver from Citi worked like a charm. Renting a brand new 4wd Grand Vitarra with two drivers for $186 for 8 days including $12/day 3rd party liability. We ran out for a quick bite at the Pollo Cerveceria. 4 beers, 2 entrees, $32. Guarded parking lot. Tomorrow, things should get interesting as we drive to Jaco. So far, smooth sailing. Room tonight, w/2 beds including breakfast for 2, WiFi and AC and really pretty grounds was $54. Flight was $300 round trip.

  43. Xolepa says:

    No razor wire visible?

  44. No One says:

    I’ll go along with no subsidies for anyone. Next, let’s get rid of the ethanol mandate.
    But I think it’s appalling how Trump has lobotomized the Repubs. In his latest interview, he kept on talking about how his gut is smarter than other people’s brains. I think Trump developed his lifetime economic policy views solely by watching the 1986 comedy movie “Gung Ho” starring Michael Keaton, followed by watching the “Rising Sun” movie in 93.

  45. Yo! says:

    800 Avenue at Port Imperial #1005

    Tax records show this apartment recently sold for $4,000,000. Can anybody confirm this?

  46. ExEssex says:

    1:09 surfs up baby!

  47. leftwing says:

    Massive miss on new home sales this morning. With a declining median sales price…

    Lib/Ex what’s your itinerary, where do you guys go after Jaco?

    Dipped a toe in MSFT and AAPL yesterday…hesitantly, since I think we have another general market decline on the horizon. MSFT was more of a trading position, may be out before the weekend. AAPL, only deployed a portion of capital I would to that name in a LT account, writing calls against it. I’d be enthusiastic if it could get a 150 handle and then pick it up on a solid rebound. I like it a lot better as a buy in the 170s with an uptrend, rather than in the 170s with a downtrend. But…if I could time the market accurately and consistently I’d own most of the Costa Rican coast Lib is traveling.

  48. D-FENS says:

    The Pumpkin Survey

    http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/business/housing/november_2018/homeowner_optimism_still_among_record_highs

    As the year is coming to an end, homeowners are more optimistic than ever that their home is worth more than they owe on it, and they expect that value to keep rising through 2019.

    A new Rasmussen Reports national telephone and online survey finds that 69% of American Homeowners now say the value of their home is worth more than the amount they owe on their mortgage, up from May’s previous nine-year high of 66%. Just 21% now say their home’s value is not worth more than what they owe on it, but 10% are not sure.

  49. D-FENS says:

    Please be advised More QT and rate hikes ahead. NJ DOT will be salting and brining roads in response…please use caution.

  50. leftwing says:

    “A new Rasmussen Reports national telephone and online survey finds that 69% of American Homeowners now say the value of their home is worth more than the amount they owe on their mortgage, up from May’s previous nine-year high of 66%. Just 21% now say their home’s value is not worth more than what they owe on it, but 10% are not sure.”

    I needed to read that twice to realize how fcuked up it is assuming it’s accurate……they’re talking current value re: mortgage, not purchase price.

  51. 3b says:

    Left Yep amazing!!

  52. Bystander says:

    DFENS,

    I feel sorry that we have a ‘dictator in his own mind’ retarded, @sshat for president.

  53. Juice Box says:

    Just got my tax assessment card from the town, they tacked on another 20k to my assessment again.

    My assessment has now increased over $100k in 5 years. Seems about time to do the appeal. For Monmouth county January 15th, 2019 is the filing deadline all other is April I believe.

    Did anyone here use this appeal site only for Monmouth, Hudson, Burlington and Union counties?

    Online Appeal Filing System

    https://secure.njappealonline.com/prodappeals/login.aspx

  54. Juice Box says:

    Re: – QT and unwinding the Feds balance sheet.

    AKA – taking the punch bowl away.

    The “punch bowl” metaphor seems to trace back to a speech given on October 19, 1955, by William McChesney Martin, who served as Chairman of the Federal Reserve from 1951 through 1970, to the New York Group of the Investment Bankers Association of America. Here’s what Martin said to the financiers of his own time, who presumably weren’t that eager to see the Fed reduce its stimulus, either:

    “If we fail to apply the brakes sufficiently and in time, of course, we shall go over the cliff. If businessmen, bankers, your contemporaries in the business and financial world, stay on the sidelines, concerned only with making profits, letting the Government bear all of the responsibility and the burden of guidance of the economy, we shall surely fail. … In the field of monetary and credit policy, precautionary action to prevent inflationary excesses is bound to have some onerous effects–if it did not it would be ineffective and futile. Those who have the task of making such policy don’t expect you to applaud. The Federal Reserve, as one writer put it, after the recent increase in the discount rate, is in the position of the chaperone who has ordered the punch bowl removed just when the party was really warming up.”

  55. Juice Box says:

    It’s always the timing too when it comes to the punch bowl. One could argue it should have been removed a long time ago as the “savers” suffered for the last decade perhaps way too long, those savers in their “search for yield” created a new asset bubble elsewhere and forgot why they moved their money in the first place. Now they are all in 100% in Apple and other FANGS the darlings of this decade.

    Grandma and Grandpa are about to get a reckoning.

  56. joyce says:

    Do you have a reason to doubt it?

    Yo! says:
    November 28, 2018 at 9:27 am
    800 Avenue at Port Imperial #1005

    Tax records show this apartment recently sold for $4,000,000. Can anybody confirm this?

  57. The Great Pumpkin says:

    I don’t exactly get how apple is overvalued? It’s making a sh!t load of profit. It’s a damn well run company that will survive a long time.

  58. chicagofinance says:

    Your stupidity is capable of ripping a hole into the Internet……

    The Great Pumpkin says:
    November 28, 2018 at 12:00 pm
    I don’t exactly get how apple is overvalued? It’s making a sh!t load of profit. It’s a damn well run company that will survive a long time.

  59. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Blasts me, but no explanation.

  60. chicagofinance says:

    Wow…….. Powell just gave you a nice reach around……

    leftwing says:
    November 28, 2018 at 10:34 am
    Massive miss on new home sales this morning. With a declining median sales price…

    Lib/Ex what’s your itinerary, where do you guys go after Jaco?

    Dipped a toe in MSFT and AAPL yesterday…hesitantly, since I think we have another general market decline on the horizon. MSFT was more of a trading position, may be out before the weekend. AAPL, only deployed a portion of capital I would to that name in a LT account, writing calls against it. I’d be enthusiastic if it could get a 150 handle and then pick it up on a solid rebound. I like it a lot better as a buy in the 170s with an uptrend, rather than in the 170s with a downtrend. But…if I could time the market accurately and consistently I’d own most of the Costa Rican coast Lib is traveling.

  61. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Oh I get it, apple is now on its death walk? Company is finished because iPhone sales are down. Sell apple!!

  62. 30 year realtor says:

    Currently working on a property in the Princeton area. House sold new in 2004 for $1,450,000. Currently listed as a short sale for under 1.2. Recent sales in the area in this price range show values off about 30% from 2006 peak. My interpretation of the data shows prices appear to be firming. In the short range I expect prices to leak lower in this area/price range.

    This example is the rule across most of North Jersey for high price, high tax homes.

  63. Bruiser says:

    Test for formatting

  64. Bruiser says:

    Two thoughts…

    1) “The Big Slow”, or as they called it during the Obama years…”The Increasing Downclimb”.

    2) “The most likely scenario for housing is a soft landing, not a recessionary slowdown.” Holy shiiiite, where have I heard that before? Head for the hills, a recession is almost assured, and it is probably already here!

  65. leftwing says:

    Thank you chairman powell…….

  66. PumpkinFace says:

    What’s your explanation for it’s current valuation and forward looking expectations other than “sh!t load of profit” and “I don’t understand”?

    The Great Pumpkin says:
    November 28, 2018 at 12:16 pm
    Blasts me, but no explanation.

  67. The Great Pumpkin says:

    And just like that, stocks blast off. Short term bets in the stock market are pure gambling because short term movement is driven by pure gamblers. One day the sky is falling, the next it’s a beautiful day, and that’s the way they love it.

  68. Bystander says:

    “Remember, the stock market is not the economy.”

    -old saying, dead thought as of 2018

  69. leftwing says:

    “Wow…….. Powell just gave you a nice reach around……”

    I’m OK. Grabbed some SPY 268.50C yesterday expiring today, two trades, at 0.83 and 0.55.

    Sold half at open for 1.44 because that arsehole Liesman who I never liked was all over TV this morning downplaying what Powell could/would say…..just dumped the other half a little while ago….so not happy, but ok.

    also decided wtf, since i’m playing with house money have an open order now for a butterfly put expiring today at 272.50/270.50/268.50 for 0.39 thinking pop may have gotten ahead of itself…that is a pure black/red roulette trade, probably should stop doing these but….

  70. ExEssex says:

    Though it’s still up by just under 3% on the year, it’s been deeply slumping in November, having fallen by 21% in the month at a cost of over $200 billion in market value. On November 1, Apple announced it would no longer reveal how many iPhones it sold in a given quarter, leading analysts to speculate that the company expected unit sales to start trending downward.

    That has been a big contributor to the rout. In fact, Apple has now lost its crown as the most valuable US company — to Microsoft! The company that was once the first $1 trillion publicly traded company is now not even the most valuable US company.

    When markets opened Wednesday morning, Apple’s market cap was at $833 billion. Microsoft’s was slightly higher at $838 billion, according to Bloomberg data.

    Ultimately, it’s all shaping up to be Apple’s worst month since 2008, during the financial crisis.

    There are a lot of reasons Apple is in a slump. Let’s break them down:

    1. The global smartphone market is slumping and shrinking, with only a slight glimmer of hope in the future. Apple, which makes 61% of its revenue selling iPhones, is not exempt.
    1. The global smartphone market is slumping and shrinking, with only a slight glimmer of hope in the future. Apple, which makes 61% of its revenue selling iPhones, is not exempt.

    “According to preliminary data from the International Data Corporation Worldwide Quarterly Mobile Phone Tracker, smartphone vendors shipped a total of 355.2 million units during the third quarter of 2018, resulting in a year-over-year decline of 6.0%. This was the fourth consecutive quarter of year-over-year declines for the global smartphone market, which raises questions about the market’s future. IDC maintains its view that the market will return to growth in 2019, but at this stage it is too early to tell what that growth will look like.” —International Data Corporation

    2. But a lot of signs also point to slower demand for Apple’s iPhones specifically, especially the new midrange iPhone XR, which costs $750. Several Apple suppliers that make parts for that device have slashed their forecasts in recent weeks.
    2. But a lot of signs also point to slower demand for Apple’s iPhones specifically, especially the new midrange iPhone XR, which costs $750. Several Apple suppliers that make parts for that device have slashed their forecasts in recent weeks.
    Justin Sullivan/Getty Images
    “October sales for AAPL’s Taiwanese suppliers were better than seasonal given the delayed iPhone XR release. We expect a sharp reversal in this dynamic, with spot checks late last week highlighting 20-30% iPhone order cuts related principally to the iPhone XR and XS Max, that 20-25% order increases for the 8/8 Plus and older iPhone models will only partially offset,” the Longbow analyst Shawn Harrison wrote in a November 12 note.

    “Some preliminary checks confirm Lumentum’s commentary this morning regarding very recent iPhone order cuts, which supports cautious commentary from Skyworks last week. In our very preliminary checks, we’re hearing of 20% order cuts for the XR, as well as ~5% cuts to XS and XS Max build plans,” the Raymond James analyst Chris Caso wrote in a November 12 note.

    “This morning Apple supplier Lumentum updated much weaker guidance for the next quarter just 10 days after guiding to a higher revenue expectation. The company noted the following ‘We recently received a request from one of our largest Industrial and Consumer customers for laser diodes for 3D sensing to materially reduce shipments to them during our fiscal second quarter for previously placed orders that were originally scheduled for delivery during the quarter,'” the Bank of America Merrill Lynch analyst Wamsi Mohan wrote on November 12.

    3. There are also major concerns about emerging-market economies, where consumer confidence may be waning. A strong dollar isn’t helping.
    3. There are also major concerns about emerging-market economies, where consumer confidence may be waning. A strong dollar isn’t helping.

    “In addition to weakness in demand for Apple’s products in China and other emerging markets it also looks like the balance of price and features in the iPhone XR may not have been well-received by users outside of the US,” the Goldman Sachs analyst Rod Hall wrote in a November 19 note.

    “China could be driving incremental weakness. On the FQ1’19 call, Apple indicated macro and foreign exchange driven consumer weakness in emerging markets such as Russia, Brazil, Turkey, and India,” Hall wrote on November 12.

  71. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Where do I start?

    Immense pile of cash for future investment.

    Rock solid earnings (best ever 4th qt).

    Great price to earnings ratio.

    THEY ARE THE MOST DOMINANT COMPANY IN THE WORLD (NOTHING HAS CHANGED THAT).

    They have some of the most loyal customers out there, built on a solid product reputation that almost never fails. NO COMPETITOR CAN COME CLOSE TO THE RELIABILITY AND PERFORMANCE OF APPLE PRODUCTS IN THE TECH WORLD. NOT EVEN CLOSE.

    The apple watch is a game changer. If you can’t see how this product is going to change society, you have no vision.

    They have successfully moved their business away from relying solely on the iphone or any one product.

    They have also expanded their service business at a rapid pace that will be a main feature of society for years to come.

    I can go on and on, apple is a got damn beast this world has never witnessed before.

    The haters love to hate apple, but the company proves them wrong, year after year.

    Let me guess, your hate for apple blinds you from seeing the long term investment it is. There is not a better long term investment with the same risk to reward ratio out there. There is almost no risk of losing money on apple if you buy now and hold for 5 years….almost impossible to lose in that time frame.

    PumpkinFace says:
    November 28, 2018 at 12:44 pm
    What’s your explanation for it’s current valuation and forward looking expectations other than “sh!t load of profit” and “I don’t understand”?

  72. leftwing says:

    also in my trading account i’m mostly cash now having closed most my shorts. i have a couple small long positions through puts i’ve written. largest is a BAC 26P expiring 12/21, i’ll ride that out even though most of that max gain has been recognized. other is a small long in an HD 12/21 call i picked up in the swoon and a GE position i seem to swing trade around way too much presumably because i have nothing better to do lol.

    It’s time to step back again and see if I can get a good view so i can get some more trades on to support it. year end is going to be funky and hard to call.

    also dumped the msft calls picked up yesterday.

  73. Juice Box says:

    SEC poured some cold water on Bitcoin ETFs again. Seems their ponzi won’t be allowed to infect the regular markets yet.

  74. D-FENS says:

    I have both a Samsung Galaxy S9+ and an iPhone XR. I have to say, it’s getting harder to tell the difference. I’m not liking the whole home button removal thing…

    I like apple car-play a bit better than android auto… but both systems have pretty much the same capabilities.

  75. Juice Box says:

    Pumps Microsoft is seen as the faster grower NOW over Apple. EPS for Microsoft is expected to be higher. Nobody expects Apple to grow anymore without new products, as far as the Apple watch the revenue run rate is nowhere near the iPhone.

    Old one from the last decade but still true today. Mad TV the iRack..

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rw2nkoGLhrE

    Place your bets accordingly.

  76. leftwing says:

    Re: AAPL….

    A discussion of any investment needs to frame the horizon and strategy to have any value….

    I picked up some AAPL in my LT account – investment horizon three years or more. I filled about 1/3 of the amount I would ultimately seek and wrote some ST calls against it.

    I did that because my view is that I like it longer term but either/both of company specific or general market issues may drag it down shorter term.

    Company has all the LT merits previously mentioned and well known. My ST concern aside from the general market is that I really don’t like that they have tweaked their strategy to produce more models of the phone while simultaneously removing unit sale transparency and focusing on the premium priced product. Most disturbing was Cook’s analogy while announcing the change, to the effect of “the number of items in a shopping cart at the supermarket is not a good indicator of the total amount you pay”. To me, it is an all but a tacit admission that they are in the midst of a product mix transition that will have some near term bumps.

    I’m also not thrilled with the technical setup in the stock, which is always my final ‘idiot check’ before investing.

    So given the above, I went in for only a portion of the long I desire and hedged myself with the covered call. If it declines I’ll dollar cost average in at opportune times writing against those positions, getting me my desired LT hold at an aggregate cheaper price. If I misjudged and it holds the price here I’ll pocket about 8% in a month from stock gain/premium unless I roll the call and I end up leaving some short term upside on the table…

    But, again, this is LT investment so I am surely not looking at it minute by minute, day by day.

    Best advice to others here was in the first sentence…have an investment strategy that follows your investment horizon, and adhere to it. For both entry and exit criteria. Everything else is noise.

  77. Bystander says:

    Juice,

    All those Surface pros on NFL side lines. A confused Eli trying to make sense of his last f-up…well, people just relate.

  78. leftwing says:

    Re: legalized prostitution…

    So funny I was thinking something similar yesterday. Murphy’s presser on legalized pot really bothered me with his cavalier attitude. Actually said something to the effect of “people are doing it anyway, if we can get involved and make a few bucks why not”.

    Seemed pretty weak to me since the same logic could be used for any illegal activity and my mind ran immediately to state sanctioned brothels lol. I truly can’t believe the citizens of this State elect the politicians they do…..

  79. Fast Eddie says:

    Apple is the next Sony.

  80. Fast Eddie says:

    Or, Apple is the next Coca Cola. You can’t keep repackaging the same product over and over and calling it something else.

  81. Bruiser says:

    Lefty @ 2:02 PM –
    If legalized prostitution draw JJ out of hiding and back to NJ, nothing will.

  82. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Fast Eddie,

    And those companies were fine long term investments. Ask buffet. He loves his coke.

    Maybe you are older, and not seeing this through the same perspective, but the apple watch will be worn by most of the population in a few years. It is a damn game changer, and it’s only begun. It’s probably going to eventually replace phones.

    I can only imagine how many services they will milk out of that watch. You have to have an imagination to see the future and apple is the future along with amazon. Those are the top two stocks for a very long time. You simply can’t compete with them in the next decade.

    And if you think Apple doesn’t have something up their sleeve in terms of other inventions, you are naive. They are milking what they have right now at an efficient rate, while setting up to defend their position in the tech world with world class innovation.

    I think that is the most naive talk from all the analysts, that the tech companies have stopped becoming innovative. That is f’en hilarious. I’ll stop there…

  83. Libturd in CR says:

    Next stop is Nicoya Peninsula with ferry ride from Puntarenas to Naranjo and we’ll drive down to Malpais and crash there. Breakfast at B&B was almost worth what we paid for the room. Our hotel in Jaco is on the beach. Two double beds, separate living room and kitchen. Breakfast included. $87. Great place.

  84. Grim says:

    For someone to beat Apple at mobile it will require a new OS. Android is weak and bloated. Walled garden is the only model that works when optimal UX is the goal.

  85. PumpkinFace says:

    Where do I start?
    Your use of capital letters does not an analysis make.

    Let me guess? Your post had more rambling and babbling nonsense than any actual analysis. I don’t hate apple. I use an iPhone, genius.

    There is not a better long term investment with the same risk to reward ratio out there. There is almost no risk of losing money on apple if you buy now and hold for 5 years….almost impossible to lose in that time frame.

    Do you know how many times you’ve said that exact same thing about real estate? Do you honestly believe you’re being “logical” and objective when you flip flop every day every week every month? While back articles were coming out about negative effects of tariffs and you cried about it ruining your stupid predictions… and yesterday you praised Trump for the tariffs and how it aligns with your predictions. Do you not have any short or long term memory? You’re no different than people who constantly say the sky is falling or will fall next year – just in the opposite direction.

    Stealing something out of your playbook: PROVE ME WRONG

  86. Yo! says:

    Joyce 11:54 am,

    $4,000,000 seems like a high price for an apartment in New Jersey, especially when experts like 30 year say high priced homes in North Jersey are declining in value.

    Perhaps Some neighborhoods are exceptions. Here is sale price history for a home down the street from the $4,000,000 apartment. 2004 $999,500, 2010 $1,050,000, 2015 $1,550,000, November 2018 $1,735,000.

    Grim, looking like Supremes are leaning toward banning civil forfeiture.

    https://www.bloombergquint.com/politics/justices-signal-they-will-put-limits-on-state-power-to-fine

  87. joyce says:

    Yo,
    Need a double check, can you confirm home prices are falling in Salem County?

  88. leftwing says:

    Nice. I stayed at a place called casa chameleon in mal pais.

    Did a place Tango Mar in Tambor, fun, New Years Eve. My trip came together very late so I bounced around, my final night was in the Barcelo Tambor which is a Latin American all inclusive. Totally different flavor, huge, but entirely foreign. Bit of culture shock after the smaller places lol.

    I’m sure your trip is booked but if you make it playa san miguel way there is a little place run by an expat couple called cristal azul. very laid back, good vibe. real bullfighting nearby. beach was totally empty on christmas eve when i went…they have an inlaw that runs a little sea food place in mal pais….

    all places reasonable except casa chameleon. i think they are struggling a bit, keep getting all kinds of discount offers from them still.

    good memories…happy for you guys but very jealous.

  89. joyce says:

    Chicagofinance,
    Maybe “Yo” is the same poster who was the Hoboken realtor (Frank?)… and resumed posting for obvious reasons.

  90. texting says:

    I think AAPL can make some $$ by putting all their cash in ally bank as i don’t see them pumping more cash into their business is going to generate anything..

    Anybody got GS last week ??.

  91. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Pumpkin face,

    Name one human being alive today, or ever, that did not have some contradictions in their analysis on any given subject?

    To sit here and accuse me of contradicting my position on minor issues is lame. On my main positions, I have stayed steady for a long time.

    What’s your real handle? You are prob one of the same self absorbed a$$holes who accused me of being a mumbling idiot 6 years ago when I was making my calls on the economy, housing market, and wage inflation/inflation. How that work out?

  92. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Can anyone tell me why the greatest investor ever known to man loves apple? Why? It’s his largest position. What a f’n idiot, just like pumps.

  93. Blue Ribbon Teacher says:

    You know, Warren loved Wells Fargo to. Meanwhile, any average Joe that ever stepped foot into a Wells Fargo knew the place was littered with scumbags and bad policies.

  94. Blue Ribbon Teacher says:

    I think that is the most naive talk from all the analysts, that the tech companies have stopped becoming innovative. That is f’en hilarious. I’ll stop there…

    At this point, Google can’t even get sheets to fit the slope of a line properly. I’d say it’s all downhill from here.

  95. leftwing says:

    Lib/Ex also in Santa Teresa poke your head in Red Palm Villas. Was for sale a few years back….

  96. Provocateur says:

    Pumpkin is eagerly awaiting the next big thing from Apple: an Ibuttplug.

  97. Blue Ribbon Teacher says:

    Can anyone tell me why the greatest investor ever known to man loves apple? Why? It’s his largest position. What a f’n idiot, just like pumps.

    It’s not your largest position

  98. The Great Pumpkin says:

    “In an in­ter­view Mon­day with The Wall Street Jour­nal, the pres­i­dent said that the prospect played a big role in forc­ing Eu­ropean Com­mis-sion Pres­i­dent Jean-Claude Juncker to agree over the sum­mer to open new trans-At­lantic trade talks.

    “He didn’t care un­til I said I was go­ing to tax his cars,” Mr. Trump said in the in­ter­view. “And then the next day he was there at about 7:00 in the morn­ing.””

    https://www.wsj.com/articles/trump-says-gm-plant-closings-may-justify-new-car-tariffs-1543418195?emailToken=e893546fd8ad90f7750ce4ac872aaadd7wV3O9HxCMCJ1/dXTi+qDzobKjanFwah3ueTZAYDFTamNdxwI8ak9V91hsoWqigbxanU6eEIJ2mi1j0ZaAxd4SZtIBGWn/V60h9EpsbVmALoyX5erwEymGqQxKHHeW2y&reflink=article_copyURL_share

  99. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Discovery CEO David Zaslav told CNBC that Apple’s video streaming service “could explode” when it launches next year, because CEO Tim Cook and video head Eddy Cue have the connections they need: subscribers.
    “I think Apple is the company in media that’s going to surprise people the most,” he said Wednesday on “Squawk Box.” “They’re in business every month with over 600 million people,” he said, estimating the company’s customer base.
    It could be said that the iPhone maker will be a bit late to the streaming game when Apple Video releases, possibly in March.
    But the tech giant’s loyal following gives it an edge over future competitors, Zaslav argues, such as Netflix, which reportedly had 137 million subscribers at the end of September.
    “[Apple is] already in business with loads of people that love them and love their brand. That’s like a superhighway,” he said.
    Morgan Stanley predicts Apple Video could generate $500 million in 2019 and $4 billion by 2025.
    Shares of Apple closed up 6.7 percent Wednesday. They are up almost 6 percent year to date.

  100. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Beast of a company, that’s all I can say, but keep telling me its growth story is over.

  101. chicagofinance says:

    His stuff reads like this…..
    https://www.nytimes.com/1989/11/03/opinion/japan-buys-the-center-of-new-york.html

    joyce says:
    November 28, 2018 at 4:35 pm
    Chicagofinance,
    Maybe “Yo” is the same poster who was the Hoboken realtor (Frank?)… and resumed posting for obvious reasons.

  102. chicagofinance says:

    Of course, we know how that played out……. it is all Monopoly money to the Chinese anyway…..

  103. chicagofinance says:

    I spoke with a Cornell applicant this past weekend…… I won’t go into details other than he was a Chinese national…… I swear, very polished gentleman, well mannered, impeccably dressed for a 19 year old, smart…… but I felt as if I was conducting a business transaction…… the whole thing was really creepy….. the conspicuous wealth, the connections, the clear infrastructure behind this kid….. and to be clear…. I am not interviewing him in Hong Kong or something…. I’m in a fckin Dunkin’ Donuts in the middle of New Jersey…… sickeninig…..

  104. Yo! says:

    Chicagofinance, the guy who bought the $4,000,000 apartment is named Marquez.

  105. joyce says:

    Yo,
    Hang on. I’m still trying to confirm the sale. I’ll let you know the amount and name of buyer.

    How’s Salem?

  106. texting says:

    Pumpkin,

    https://www.cnbc.com/2018/11/29/october-pending-home-sales-drop-2point6percent-for-10th-month-of-annual-declines.html

    Pending home sales drop 2.6% in October for 10th straight month of annual declines

  107. homeboken says:

    Between AAPL and Samsung, I think the biggest new innovation will be the foldable hardware that Samsung is perfecting. The applications for flexible screens seems huge to me.

    Then again – I am a homeless man that lives under a bridge, so don’t listen to me.

  108. The Great Pumpkin says:

    The market is taking a very healthy breather. Simple as that. This might continue through next year, but it’s going to come to an end because there is HUGE demand for housing, and not enough of it. Simple as that.

    If you are really serious about buying, then buy by next year the latest. Don’t wait till everyone feels comfortable to buy again, you will be very sorry, as you will be competing with an army of buyers that are well equipped to go to war.

    texting says:
    November 29, 2018 at 10:11 am
    Pumpkin,

    https://www.cnbc.com/2018/11/29/october-pending-home-sales-drop-2point6percent-for-10th-month-of-annual-declines.html

    Pending home sales drop 2.6% in October for 10th straight month of annual decline

  109. GdBlsU45 says:

    Awesome fake news nj.com has astonishingly decided to start an anti police crusade for some unknown reason. No coverage of Murphy sheltering an alleged r@pist in his administration but they found the time to put together this excrement.

  110. Not ChiFied says:

    ChiFi,

    Does it no makes you think, that the business/globalist elite that decided to let China in, were not only wrong big time (See NY Times series on it – “The country that refused to fail”) on their logical decision making outcome, but also that it was heavily manipulated into it, but making them believe that the centralized CCP system would essentially give away like the old USSR, so don’t try to actively fight it.? Therefore we are in a darkened foggy hall of mirrors. So how real is real and who is the true master?

    chicagofinance says:
    November 29, 2018 at 9:31 am
    I spoke with a Cornell applicant this past weekend…… I won’t go into details other than he was a Chinese national…… I swear, very polished gentleman, well mannered, impeccably dressed for a 19 year old, smart…… but I felt as if I was conducting a business transaction…… the whole thing was really creepy….. the conspicuous wealth, the connections, the clear infrastructure behind this kid….. and to be clear…. I am not interviewing him in Hong Kong or something…. I’m in a fckin Dunkin’ Donuts in the middle of New Jersey…… sickeninig…..

  111. The Great Pumpkin says:

    My calls for housing have always been to get its foundation going by 2017 or 2018, but to really take off in 2020 or later. Go check my posts from way back then, I have always called for housing to start its next bubble run starting in 2020 or later based on the huge demographic spending patterns of the boomers and millennials. Boomers will be transitioning to retirement, and millennials will be moving into home buying…. and for the oldest millennials, they will be upgrading to more expensive homes as they move into peak earning years.

  112. The Great Pumpkin says:

    The huge coming housing boom will be one of the key ingredients in the “roaring 20’s 2.0.”

  113. 3b says:

    Ain’t no housing boom coming dear.

  114. Fast Eddie says:

    Samsung over Apple easily. Apple is trying to hold on to it’s cult status. Same with Starbucks – their coffee sucks but it’s trendy to carry a cup with their logo on it.

  115. grim says:

    Samsung?

    No way.

  116. The Great Pumpkin says:

    3b,

    I think most people hold your position. Just type it into google search engine and they are all calling for a bust……fyi, the herd is always wrong.

    https://www.marketwatch.com/story/economists-say-homes-could-go-on-sale-in-2020-when-the-next-recession-hits-2018-05-22

  117. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Just like I was going against almost every expert in 2012/13, I’m once again in the same position. I’m still as confident as I was back then, I will not back down from this position. They are simply looking at the wrong factors in taking their position.

  118. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Wow, actually found someone that gets it. This is great.

    “The current Existing Home Inventory data is currently sitting at an all-time low.

    When inventory levels are this low, home prices have tended to rise at double digit rates or roughly double the current 6%.

    By 2020- 2022, Hedgeye Housing analyst Josh Steiner says “we could see an extraordinary housing bull market” as Millennial homebuyers enter the market.”

    https://seekingalpha.com/article/4143201-millennials-may-ignite-epic-housing-bull-market-2020

  119. Joyce for you says:

    Joyce,

    nj.com newspapers have a series on police excess of force use and abuse. You are going to love it.

    The poster below, most be a cop looking for a donut shop. Hey buddy, don’t you have a motorist to harass and mug? Also do you have any other plans on how to steal for a living now that pot will be legal and soon cars will self-drive with dark tinted windows and have a lots of cameras on them, so you won’t get away with it, like it was mexico?

    GdBlsU45 says:
    November 29, 2018 at 10:44 am
    Awesome fake news nj.com has astonishingly decided to start an anti police crusade for some unknown reason.

  120. The Great Pumpkin says:

    The ‘Extraordinary Housing Bull Market’: The Millennial Population Boom

    There’s a significant bullish catalyst for U.S. housing: the Millennial population boom.

    Knowing that the median first time buyer age is 32 or 33 years old is critical because it allows us to look at the coming demographic wave. Here’s a key quote from Steiner in the Housing webinar:

    The group we’re focused on are the Millennials. And the reason we’re looking at them is twofold. One, because the average age at which someone buys their first home is 32 to 33 years of age. Meanwhile, the average age that they rent their first home is 26 to 27 years old. What’s interesting about this slide (see below) is if you look at how many more 26 and 27 year olds there are, than 32 and 33 year olds, you should be able to see what’s coming down the pike over the next 5 to 6 years. There is going to be a massive influx of would be first-time homebuyers.

    The chart below shows the size of the current 32 to 33 year old age cohort – roughly 4.3-4.4 million. Now, compare this to the current 26 to 27 year-old age cohort of 4.8 million. In other words, by 2020- 2022, Steiner says “we could see an extraordinary housing bull market.”

  121. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Damn, didn’t even think of this. Great post. Cops are screwed.

    “The poster below, most be a cop looking for a donut shop. Hey buddy, don’t you have a motorist to harass and mug? Also do you have any other plans on how to steal for a living now that pot will be legal and soon cars will self-drive with dark tinted windows and have a lots of cameras on them, so you won’t get away with it, like it was mexico?”

  122. The Great Pumpkin says:

    We won’t need many cops in the future. No accidents, no speeding tickets, and no drunk driving…..they are screwed.

  123. The Great Pumpkin says:

    No pot arrests. They are beyond screwed. No wonder police are the only ones against legalizing pot, protecting their future.

  124. GdBlsU45 says:

    Actually jerkoff I’m more of the libertarian bent. I don’t like a police state but in the age of radical progressives and open borders I’ll gladly stand by them. And I have a high enough IQ unlike you to recognize the place you battle the polices is in the courtroom and not the street.

  125. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Comments from that article I shared.

    “T-time, Contributor
    Comments1085 | + Follow
    Agree with over-all thesis with one exception: millennials do not like the newer, ‘suburban’ homes that homebuilders and their stocks will benefit from in terms of a housing boom. This time around, it will be the older, urban houses near downtown that will benefit. The only way to invest there is to start buying them now! Historic houses near Universities or urban centers will be all the rage over the next 10 years…”

    “Landlord Investor, Contributor
    Comments3586 | + Follow
    There’s a limited supply of those homes. Even more limited when considering downtown homes with decent school options. Plus prices in major cities for that type of housing is already off the charts.
    With increasing telecommuting options and eventually driverless cars, millenials won’t mind the suburbs as much because they won’t spend a horrendous amount of time car commuting.”

  126. The Great Pumpkin says:

    oops, shared the wrong comments, this is what I meant to share.

    1504661
    Comments1814 | + Follow
    Id like to know where the money will come from.
    How will all these millennials afford homes on piecemeal pay from driving with Uber?
    There also won’t be enough buyers for existing McMansions.
    If you own a McMansion, the number of potential future buyers is shrinking every day. Yes, demographic trends point to disruption in the housing industry.
    06 Feb 2018, 11:52 AM Reply2Like

    Landlord Investor, Contributor
    Comments3586 | + Follow
    Millenials are the best educated generation and the most likely generation to have a background in tech — that’s where the good paying jobs of the future are. They are also very innovative and entrepreneurial and have the startup culture in their veins.

  127. leftwing says:

    Chi, re: your interview, so happy that in a month my last is presumably admitted somewhere and that rat race is behind my family…..

  128. leftwing says:

    Been a while since I did shrooms. How are they.

    “Does it no makes you think, that the business/globalist elite that decided to let China in, were not only wrong big time (See NY Times series on it – “The country that refused to fail”) on their logical decision making outcome, but also that it was heavily manipulated into it, but making them believe that the centralized CCP system would essentially give away like the old USSR, so don’t try to actively fight it.? Therefore we are in a darkened foggy hall of mirrors. So how real is real and who is the true master?”

  129. 3b says:

    No housing boom dear. Society has changed. The family has changed. Work has and will continue to change. Marriage is later if it occurs at all. Childbirth ages continue to rise. One and done or two and no more. Both parents working where the jobs are in the cities. None of this bodes well for the SFH in the suburbs. It’s all changed. Utterly changed.

  130. The Great Pumpkin says:

    3b,

    Nah, it’s more of the same. Some people living in cities, and some living in suburbs for the value they bring in comparison to city costs.

    The thing that has not changed, everyone needs a roof over their head. Another thing that hasn’t changed, people strive to have a “nice” roof over their head unless they have given up on life.

  131. homeboken says:

    Grim – If not Samsung, then who? I don’t think Apple is going to lead the next big innovation. I could see the Chinese firm Huawei. They have supplanted Apple as the number 2 phone-maker world-wide. Doesn’t hurt that they have a home market in excess of 1 billion.

    I am truly naive in this space. All I know is, I switched from the Iphone to the Galaxy Note 8 and I can’t imagine going back. Being a road-warrior and spending the hours I do actually making/receiving phone calls, the Note 8 has knocked it out of the park in every way possible, in my experience.

  132. 3b says:

    It’s utterly changed lil pumps! Of course everyone needs a roof over their head. What a simplistic little comment.

  133. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Homeboken,

    I dream of the day that China becomes the innovator, and the west gets to cheaply rip off their innovation. Ahh….one can dream!

    I don’t buy the statements that Chinese companies are no longer copy cats.

  134. The Great Pumpkin says:

    3b,

    That’s how I make my calls. I focus on what matters. I try to keep it as simple as I can, and not let the noise cloud the picture. The experts just look at too much noise and end up all over the place.

  135. 3b says:

    Those are not calls dear. As I said no housing boom. Suburbs are in decline NJ is in rapid decline.

  136. NJGator says:

    We’re #1 in something!

    Data: New Jersey ranks 1st in US in young adults still living with their parents

    EDISON –
    An analysis of 2017 data collected by the U.S. Census Bureau shows New Jersey leads the U.S. in young adults still living with their parents.

    According to the data, 47 percent of New Jerseyans from ages 18 to 34 live with their parents, or one of the two.

    The percentage is the highest among the states.

    Connecticut is second in the nation, followed by Rhode Island, New York, and Florida.

    http://newjersey.news12.com/story/39561122/data-new-jersey-ranks-1st-in-us-in-young-adults-still-living-with-their-parents

  137. 3b says:

    Gator everybody needs a roof over their head!! Don’t worry though they will be out buying SFH s soon! The roaring 20’s and all that! Someone said it is going to happen those basement dwellers will soon be helping in driving house prices to unprecedented highs!!

  138. The Great Pumpkin says:

    “Fortunately, today’s market lacks many of the harbingers of correction.

    The idea of a longer real estate cycle is not a new one, although it is not prevalent. Financial writer Philip Anderson wrote during Q1 2012 near the national housing nadir, that to his eyes U.S. real estate cycles may be viewed through the lens of land sales and construction activity as 18-year cycles instead of the conventional decade measure. With brutal hindsight, he observed that land speculation and unsound credit practices have historically preceded downturns.

    Anderson cited multiple instances since 1800 in which the economy and real estate flourished and fell in a predictable pattern on longer cycles than the traditional decade. For our purposes, the most significant crash is certainly that which preceded and lasted throughout the Great Depression. Elementary U.S. history courses blame Black Tuesday for the entirety of the Great Depression. However, such a view is overly simplistic and leaves out reckless lending by banks, economic instability from falling agricultural prices and overexpansion in the wake of record corporate profits earned earlier in the decade. It also neglects the roles that monetary policy and terrible weather patterns played in exacerbating the problem.

    Looking at the Case-Schiller Historical Housing Index (registration required) shows an arguably a long run upward in home values between 1942, when World War II began, and the housing boom in the 1970s. Although there were some blips along the way, they were fairly short-lived and tended to level out over time, returning to what were essentially, 1950s norms before edging upward and assuming what we have now come to consider the typical housing boom-bust cycle through the 1970s, 1980s, 1990s and 2000s.

    To accurately assess the state of the U.S. housing market today, we must look beyond the past 40 or 50 years. We must look back to the last catastrophic economic event that shook the country and ask:

    • Are we engaged in reckless lending?

    • Are we in the midst of economic instability?

    • Are we setting up the circumstances for housing market overexpansion?

    If the answers to these three questions are no, then I would propose that the national housing market (and a number of hot regional ones as well) may have longer legs than we’re currently expecting.”

    https://www.forbes.com/sites/forbesrealestatecouncil/2018/06/28/an-argument-against-a-housing-market-correction-in-the-next-24-months/#54a1a4ab483f

  139. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Exact position I have spewed on this blog for how long?

    “The housing market is about to see a demographic tailwind through 2020 that will then subside around 2025.”

    https://www.businessinsider.com/millennials-turn-30-housing-boom-demographics-2018-4

  140. The Great Pumpkin says:

    From same article as previous post.

    “Permits for multi-unit residences surged first, beginning in 1965, as the oldest Boomers entered their 20s, while single family permits, relatively speaking, began to surge in the early 1970s, and reached their peak in the early 1980s. This is exactly what we would expect to see as the young demographic moves from apartments and condominiums into single family homes. By 1986, there gradually became more Boomers exiting the prime first time home-buying age demographic than there were younger persons entering that demographic.

    Note that we’ve seen an echo of this pattern with the entry of Millennials into adulthood. During the housing bust, single family permits fared much worse than multi-unit permits, and multi-unit permits initially surged more than single family permits — but since 2010, both have surged more than at any time since 1985.

    The peak in Millennial births was in 1990, after which live births leveled off. If a similar historical pattern is followed, the strong demographic tailwind in the housing market should continue through 2020, and thereafter, while not turning into a headwind, gradually subside through roughly 2025.”

  141. The Great Pumpkin says:

    For anyone that thinks I just ramble….

    Tell me why an enormous demographic spending bloc going into prime spending years will not rent or buy a residence? Buying or renting, doesn’t matter, both support housing and economy.

    Tell me how this coming enormous spending bloc in a capitalist economy built on consumer spending will crash the housing market and economy? I just don’t get it. Maybe I am an idiot.

  142. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Also, I don’t know one individual that can’t find a job. Everyone I know has a job…everyone. The crazy part, it’s not even overheating the economy. I said it before, and I’ll say it again, this is a special economy. It hasn’t even come close to booming yet. This will be the best economy of our lifetime.

  143. The Great Pumpkin says:

    You guys are older than me….when was the last time everyone you knew had a job?

  144. Penüss says:

    6:48 really? Alriiiight.

  145. Blue Ribbon Teacher says:

    Also, I don’t know one individual that can’t find a job. Everyone I know has a job…everyone. The crazy part, it’s not even overheating the economy. I said it before, and I’ll say it again, this is a special economy. It hasn’t even come close to booming yet. This will be the best economy of our lifetime.

    8 years of ZIRP and we are now at full employment. If you think Full employment continues or running the presses doesn’t have consequences, you’re wrong. All that printed money has bled out overseas in the form of a trade deficit and has been coming back buying our stocks and our prime real estate. American’s can’t afford real estate in these areas because they are not the benefactors of Bernanke’s printing press.

  146. Juice Box says:

    More on Apple’s premium brand vs the rest.

    There is a reason why Apple no longer showcases quarterly sales of handsets. It’s declining…..

    https://www.statista.com/statistics/266136/global-market-share-held-by-smartphone-operating-systems/

  147. ExEssex says:

    First, a little history.

    Before Apple was the largest tech company in the world, as it was in the first half of 2018, according to Forbes, it was merely Apple Computer, a much beloved but often battered tech company with a niche of hardcore fans – largely artists, musicians, and geeks of a certain persuasion.

    In 1997, the company was “about 90 days from going broke,” The New York Times reported earlier this year.

    But then came the redemptive success of the iMac in 1998 with its famous Bondi blue color, followed by a cavalcade of candy-colored brethren.

    In 2007, the iPhone arrived, ushering in the smartphone era with user-friendly appeal and the sheer force of marketing gusto. (It wasn’t the first smartphone to market, but it transformed the industry, according to Recode.)

  148. ExEssex says:

    Cont’d — In retrospect, 2007 was the beginning of the end for me and Apple, even as I continued to own iPhones, iPads, and MacBook Pros for another decade.

    The MacBook Air arrived in 2008: an ultra-slim, ultra-light laptop that ushered in an era of design reflected in many laptops today, according to Gizmodo.

    But with that design came a less desirable change, Wired reported: The Air’s RAM, or computer memory, was soldered to the logic board, also known as a motherboard – the proverbial engine of a computer where the majority of its key components live. In addition, its battery was uncommonly hard to replace, requiring special tools and the removal of 19 screws, according to the self-repair website iFixit’s teardown of the machine.

    This was unusual. Upgrading your memory and changing out your battery were among the most common modifications even non-gearheads made, especially at the time.

    The 2008 Air represented a break from convention that presaged the next decade of Apple’s design choices – away from the consumer and toward its own Genius repair techs.

  149. ExEssex says:

    Yeah, add to the planned degradation of performance in their smartphones, they are very vulnerable.

  150. The Great Pumpkin says:

    That last paragraph makes me sick. How much longer can this go on…the policy of paying companies to come to your state. This is the most disgusting type of welfare there is….giving rich people and rich corporations more money to set up their profit machine in your state. Talk about sucking off the govt tit. Corporate leaders are a bunch of pu$$ies who are using the taxpayer to hit their bonus goals….F!ck off, scumbags!

    “Just over three years after getting a $40 million tax credit to stay in New Jersey, the Industrial conglomerate Honeywell International Inc. is now leaving the Garden State to move to North Carolina, a source familiar with the deal said Thursday.

    The move is expected to result in 700 to 800 jobs after North Carolina expanded tax breaks for high-paying jobs, according to an economic development official familiar with discussions between state officials and the company. A second person present during discussions over the incentives needed to lure Honeywell to North Carolina said expanded tax breaks approved by the state legislature Thursday were designed to attract the company.

    They spoke on condition of anonymity, citing confidentiality in business recruitment.

    Honeywell spokeswoman Victoria Ann Streitfeld declined to comment.
    Lawmakers hurried through legislation this week that more than doubles the per-job annual cap on tax breaks to $16,000 in a move to attract corporations that move high-paying jobs to North Carolina. State Rep. Bill Brawley, a Republican who represents suburban Charlotte, said he has been involved in bringing a corporation’s headquarters and 750 jobs to Charlotte. He declined to name the company.”

  151. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Essex,

    That was written by an apple hater. You could spot them from a mile away when they start complaining about how they can’t perform their hacks to apples platforms.

    That’s the major reason why I buy apple. I like the closed off system because I enjoy never getting viruses.

  152. The Great Pumpkin says:

    “I thought the south didn’t need to give tax breaks to attract business but I guess that’s not true.”

  153. Bystander says:

    9:36,

    NC offered 16k per job, dummy. So if 700 job then 11m or so. NJ gave 40m and they are still not staying. It is about labor savings. Did your crystal ball not predict that companies getting tax breaks may still leave? Pay 30k less per job and that is 21m savings every year. No brainer.

  154. chicagofinance says:

    Pumpkin does not appreciate the cliche “You have two ears, two eyes, and one mouth. See and listen twice as much as you speak.”

    Also the Chinese proverb “Better to be thought a fool and silent, then open your mouth and remove all doubt.”

  155. Yo! says:

    http://tax1.co.monmouth.nj.us/cgi-bin/m4.cgi?district=1713&l02=171300026____00014_________M

    NJ house trades hands at price 92% below peak. Is this price action coming to a burn near you?

  156. Yo! says:

    Burb not burn

  157. Bystander says:

    Perfect, chi. Perhaps Blumpy has two a$$holes. The amount and quality of drivel could lead to that conclusion.

  158. The Great Pumpkin says:

    It’s about ripping off people any which way you can. This is bs. Someone has to step to the plate and outlaw this practice of gaining a competitive business advantage by using the govt to give you tax breaks (welfare for the rich) other businesses don’t get. It’s beyond immoral.

    States should not be able to give specific companies tax breaks for coming to their state. I thought north carolina taxes were low, why do they need a tax break to come there? It’s all bs.

    Bystander says:
    November 30, 2018 at 9:13 am
    9:36,

    NC offered 16k per job, dummy. So if 700 job then 11m or so. NJ gave 40m and they are still not staying. It is about labor savings. Did your crystal ball not predict that companies getting tax breaks may still leave? Pay 30k less per job and that is 21m savings every year. No brainer.

  159. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Honeywell can leave nj. It’s fine. I just want to stop this practice of giving tax breaks to businesses to come to the state. If they don’t want to come to the state for whatever reason so be it. If all the businesses want to leave nj, so be it, it will eventually lead to an environment of less competition for workers, making it a desirable place to be. Let all the businesses go to places like north carolina and drive up the costs there, only to come crawling back.

    Why don’t these business leaders man up and try to survive in a challenging environment instead of always LOOKING FOR AN EASY ENVIRONMENT to compete in? So called capitalists running from competition and looking for easy ways out…..my god, the irony in that. The guys that preach competition are the ones shaking down the taxpayer for tax breaks to run their business and put money in their pocket. Bunch of cowards and pu$$ies. These are also the guys telling workers to man up…..what a bunch of hypocrites.

  160. The Great Pumpkin says:

    I contribute to this blog. I provide material on a daily basis to keep discussion going. Too bad you guys have resorted to attacking the individual instead of the argument. Must be getting old and lost your fire.

    Many people that have contributed to history were considered fools by the majority at the time they were alive…..just saying.

    chicagofinance says:
    November 30, 2018 at 9:18 am
    Pumpkin does not appreciate the cliche “You have two ears, two eyes, and one mouth. See and listen twice as much as you speak.”

    Also the Chinese proverb “Better to be thought a fool and silent, then open your mouth and remove all doubt

  161. The Great Pumpkin says:

    I can’t even make sense of this tax break process. It’s basically ripping off the majority of people to give a few people good paying jobs and to enrich a few stock holders of that company. It’s criminal.

Comments are closed.