Realtors confused … what else is new?

From CNBC:

The unusually large drop in home sales has real estate agents baffled

Real estate brokers are trying to figure out why sales of existing homes plunged in December.

The 6.4 percent monthly move was unusually large, regardless of direction. The tally from the National Association of Realtors generally moves in the very low single digits month to month.

In fact, the shift was one of the largest that didn’t involve some sort of change in government policy, like the homebuyer tax credit.

“The latest decline is harder to explain. Perhaps it is the decline in consumer confidence that’s been occurring in the latter half of 2018,” said Lawrence Yun, chief economist for the Realtors. “The latest numbers do not reflect the lower, current mortgage rates compared to the November figures, so it’s really harder to explain.”

The supply of homes for sale also rose just more than 3 percent compared with a year ago. Low supply had been holding sales back last spring, despite strong demand, so it would make sense that more supply would boost sales, unless this is a sign that demand is weakening.

“This weakness is certainly due to the sharp home price gains along with the rise in mortgage rates,” said Peter Boockvar, chief investment officer at Bleakley Advisory Group.

Affordability has been blamed for slower sales over the past six months, but sales in December matched the same pace as in 2000, and Yun argues that affordability is better now.

“Today it is actually more affordable compared to year 2000, yet we have about 20 million more jobs, so for home sales to be roughly equivalent means that in 2018 there is an underperformance of the overall housing sector.”

This entry was posted in Demographics, Economics, Employment, National Real Estate. Bookmark the permalink.

59 Responses to Realtors confused … what else is new?

  1. texting says:

    Mortgage rates are at year low. Some people rushing. Some people waiting..
    Inventory is low.. Where I’m looking at Manhattan commuter south Bergen towns, things are still hot..

    Only May /June will tell what the real market is..

  2. Libturd...look me up in Costa Rica says:

    Got a new tenant in lower unit without a gap. Same rent as last tenant.

  3. Bruiser says:

    Weren’t there some Fed gyrations in November & December? Where the Fed raised rates and indicated they would raise rates again, and then a week or two later issued a “just kidding” through the media?

  4. Leftwing says:

    Lib, contraindicator for purchase demand? Single data point obviously….

  5. The Original NJ ExPat says:

    Pretty soon the media will need to dig out “unexpectedly” adverb to use in ever negative economic result, like we did 10+ years ago. Or maybe this time around, instead of “unexpectedly” they’ll substitute “because of Trump”?

    Real estate brokers are trying to figure out why sales of existing homes plunged in December.

  6. The Original NJ ExPat says:

    The Bagholder dilemma, enhanced by ever larger s0cial1st rantings of the Democrats.

    “The latest decline is harder to explain. Perhaps it is the decline in consumer confidence that’s been occurring in the latter half of 2018, preference to take on high debt and unknown future tax burdens.”

  7. The Original NJ ExPat says:

    It’s time for homeowners to pay their fair share.

  8. Fast Eddie says:

    It’s time for homeowners men who bust their @ss to pay their fair share.

  9. chicagofinance says:

    clot sighting:
    NEW HOPE, Pa. — Police say a body was found encased in ice in a pool in Pennsylvania.

    Authorities say the body was discovered Tuesday at a business in New Hope.

    Police say the body had to be cut from the pool, and they are investigating the victim’s identity and cause of death.

    Temperatures dipped below freezing Sunday night into Tuesday morning.

  10. chicagofinance says:

    douche? Tell him about Barrow House….. watch when you do repairs at the multi….. they may order you to do them at a different time…..

    Libturd…look me up in Costa Rica says:
    January 23, 2019 at 8:37 am
    Got a new tenant in lower unit without a gap. Same rent as last tenant.

  11. Comrade Nom Deplume, the Snowmeister says:

    Something I noticed while going from 30 to 295 in Barrington this morning. Salt and sand just caked along the sides of the on-ramp. Either side for about 3 feet from the curb looked like white, sandy beach the entire way up the ramp. And I noticed the highway was pretty salty too.

    I know that this is a sign of resource mismanagement or poor technique. We used to joke about seeing salt/sand /plowing fails in midatlantic states like MD or VA, who aren’t used to snow and ice and don’t know how to deal with it. But I’ve never seen such mismanagement in NJ before.

  12. The Original NJ ExPat says:

    Of the most culturally deplorable boxes one can check in progressive America in 2019, the boys of Covington Catholic High School have most of them: white, male, Christian, attendees at the annual March for Life in Washington, and wearers of MAGA hats. What’s not to dislike?

    https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-high-school-deplorables-11548202058

  13. The Original NJ ExPat says:

    I think religion is kind of funny these days, when viewed through the lens of politics.

    To me, it seems like the banner religion of the left is white atheist, black Christians are sort of grandfathered in.

    Liberals then seem to use Muslims as mascots, while they hide their contempt for Israel, and pretend that liberal Jews are just a different branch of atheism (unless they need to cast anti-semitic aspersions on the right).

    I think Dems also kind of pretend that illegal aliens crossing the Southern borders are not Christians, otherwise they should be hated equally, right?

  14. The Great Pumpkin says:

    “We’re in a men­tal re­ces­sion,” said Sam Khater, chief econ­omist at Fred­die Mac. “It’s a con­stant stream of neg­a­tive head­lines for a cou­ple of months…it wears on you.”

    https://www.wsj.com/articles/u-s-existing-home-sales-posted-steep-fall-in-december-11548169461?emailToken=161d711619af77ec533aac9107817ce8cyeXpS50Sz0tiYgjZYxV4Gq7IrSLY6k3R3+t6A5S7NTqUdbrw0NJ/fFv+YhjHgwHfUh+DHJzT0xghF2yR0FWt0n4p+W1eO91OTCPRYaZnQwNdNyG5FxFb06tHmH6CgkT&reflink=article_copyURL_share

  15. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Yup, setting up perfectly. Nice needed breather.

    ““I think this is a needed cor­rec­tion and it opens up a lot of hope and op­por­tu­ni­ties for first-time buy­ers,” she said.”

  16. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Makes me sick. That’s why I didn’t want people making a big deal out of that snow storm that was much stronger than expected.

    Murphy was doing it right. He didn’t have trucks sitting on the side of the road in anticipation of a weak storm. Now that option is out the door…thanks. He now has to always be “overly” prepared to make the cry babies happy.

    Comrade Nom Deplume, the Snowmeister says:
    January 23, 2019 at 9:26 am

  17. The Great Pumpkin says:

    I hope the selfish complainers got what they wanted… a huge bill to make sure the roads are always prepared for a storm being stronger than anticipated (keep expecting perfection from govt). Thanks so much for making a big deal!

  18. Bystander says:

    Sounds like an orchestrated correction, dufus, to drive 30 year down bc the powers know that housing loans drive the American economy. If you believe that then don’t tell us about fundamentals or economic theories. It is all shot down by the Great Oz.

  19. The Original NJ ExPat says:

    leftwing – you were right. Just ignore that guy, don’t read his posts, scroll right past, and it makes this a much better place. It’s just typing, and it’s identified at the top of each post. Ignore, scroll past without reading, and make your life better.

    I’m already seeing the improvement.

    Thanks!

  20. Yo! says:

    International Builders’ Show in Las Vegas – Anybody been? I’m going to the show for first time in a few weeks.

  21. The Original NJ ExPat says:

    How many weeks do they go between shows?

  22. The Original NJ ExPat says:

    LOL. My bad, I get it now.

  23. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Demographics are a big part of the picture…..they are lining up lovely into the next decade. I have to laugh at people calling for an economic downturn in 2020/21 right when a bunch of millennials start going nuts buying houses.

    Bystander says:
    January 23, 2019 at 10:50 am
    Sounds like an orchestrated correction, dufus, to drive 30 year down bc the powers know that housing loans drive the American economy. If you believe that then don’t tell us about fundamentals or economic theories. It is all shot down by the Great Oz

  24. Blue Ribbon Teacher says:

    I’d hate to see how he holds his kid responsible for bad decisions

  25. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Blue,

    You can’t tell me that Murphy is not giving exactly what the people asked for? How do you think I called this? Believe me, this makes me sick. Tried to get people to lighten up, but they went into overdrive attacking the governor for not being prepared for a storm no one saw coming. Are you really shocked by the governor’s response of being overly prepared now?

  26. Bystander says:

    My god, we’ve been talking about millennial boom for 15 years. The majority are 32- 40. Many saddled with student debt. If they have not moved yet then good luck with demographic boom.

  27. Bruiser says:

    AOC on television calling for reparations and fixing the rac1sm built into Roosevelt’s New Deal (redlining by the HOLC 85 years ago). I’d be afraid to bet 30 years of house payments too.

  28. Bystander says:

    To have the kind of boom dufus us looking for..well lending standards would need to be worse than 0% down ninja arm variety. Good luck.

  29. ExEssex says:

    Restorative Justice… biiiig buzzword in LA and Calif schools.

  30. Provocateur says:

    “Restorative Justice” is just another way of blaming all your problems on other people.
    How many of these supposedly held back people are interested in moving to the African continent or living as hunter-gatherers in North America? No? Then thank the white men for setting up the current superior alternative to those lifestyles. Free of charge. You’re welcome.
    Pro-tip: Learn to speak proper English. Pay attention in school. Maybe stop listening to gangsta rap or banging drums. It’s not helping you get ahead.

  31. The Original NJ ExPat says:

    What’s this I hear that California has abolished pronouns? “He” or “she” is illegal, only “they” is allowed? Aren’t they pushing everyone into ebonics?

    They be sayin’ this, then they be sayin’ that. Then they be right, but they be wrong.

  32. The Original NJ ExPat says:

    OMG! It’s above freezing in Boston and it should stay that way until late tomorrow! The temps are supposed to keep rising until they hit about 57 at 3PM tomorrow.

    We have so much iced over snow turned into solid ice that it isn’t even level ice, just ice. There was nothing you could do on Saturday because if you cleared the snow early it was going to be glare ice, and if you didn’t clear it completely (my choice), it became uneven frozen tundra. With my Yaktrax I didn’t slip and fall from lack of friction, but it felt like I could turn an ankle pretty easily.

  33. Blue Ribbon Teacher says:

    Shocked? No he’s a moron. The people asked for an appropriate response each time…not the wrong response each time.

  34. Blue Ribbon Teacher says:

    All the millenials on my facebook are too busy visiting the West coast and Colorado 4 times a year. Saving is for wimps.

  35. The Great Pumpkin says:

    I don’t like him now either….but the people got exactly what they were complaining about. This is exactly what they asked for….govt to be prepared for safe driving roads at all costs.

    Blue Ribbon Teacher says:
    January 23, 2019 at 1:12 pm
    Shocked? No he’s a moron. The people asked for an appropriate response each time…not the wrong response each time.

  36. The Original NJ ExPat says:

    When Lib and I were in Costa Rica the first place we visited on the Nicoya peninsula was this place called Santa Teresa. I guess you can fly into there with not too much trouble, as evidenced by how many 20 something white kids were there, but it is hard to get there otherwise. We took a ferry that leaves you off in the middle of nowhere on the non-Pacific side of the peninsula and then you are pretty much off-road for hours to get to this place.

    When you get there, it is not Hermosa beach, the roads are (were) all mud. It was the end of the rainy season, of course. The “roads” are about 50% cars, 50% ATVs.

    I should back up, coming down this steep, rutty, all dirt road into “town” we noticed all of these locals walking up the same steep, awful, road we were coming down. Lots of them, just walking uphill. We later figured out, or kind of figured out, these were the locals. Just trudging uphill at dusk. Moreover, these were the working locals. They looked tired, but they were walking uphill because that was the only way they traveled.

    When we got down to the coast, I was initially unimpressed. You couldn’t see anything you would take a picture of, but you could tell you were near the ocean because it was flat…finally! And it was muddy. And gravelly. There were shops, but not a downtown, really. Just the sudden density of “places”, because that’s what they were, there was no town infrastructure, they were just places, made you realize you had to be somewhere…by Costa Rican standards.

    I’ll skip a bit and pick up the next morning, even as everything was great…after some trepidation, that night.

    I got up early and took a few pictures outside our villa. I then decide to leave our gated compound and drive a bit in the early morning hours. I stopped at a coffee place, but more like a Starbucks plus, plus, plus. I bought pastries and coffee for myself and Lib at a place that looked like…there was nobody who wasn’t white as patrons at 8AM! And not old white, young white! Here we are, 8AM, a weekday, on a muddy, gravelly street and everyone around me looks like they just came off a movie set for a beach movie. It seemed to me like they were all 25-30 California surfers, and here they were, in the middle of nowhere in late November. Nobody, except me, seemed unfamiliar with the place. They all seemed like they lived there and met there every morning.

  37. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Yes, how that work out?

    First two quotes are from what they expected…..the bottom quote is what is happening.

    “Years ago, housing experts predicted a housing crisis brought on by “the great senior sell-off.” But the seniors aren’t selling—yet.”

    “Nelson pointed to the affordability issue as well as the fact that about a quarter of Millennials prefer urban housing, such as condos or townhouses, over the detached suburban homes that were the Boomers’ preferred habitat. Younger buyers, he said, will also be looking for starter homes—smaller than the big Colonials and split-levels that line America’s cul-de-sacs. “We can predict the next housing crash,” he said at the time. “That’ll be in about 2020.””

    “Frequent sales put pressure on the market to produce homes catering to changing tastes among buyers. Nelson notes that the home building industry is now producing less than half the number of new houses it did in the mid-2000s. Though demand now outpaces supply, homeowners are hanging on to properties significantly longer—nine to ten years—because they owe more on their houses than they can get for them, their houses are worth less than before the recession, or they can’t find a home that meets their needs due to insufficient supply.

    “It’s not that Boomers are going to ‘age in place,’” says Nelson. “They’re going to be stuck in place, and they’re going to make the best of it.” Those who can afford it will remodel.

    Regardless of when it occurs, the great senior sell-off won’t affect every Boomer equally. A large chunk of Millennials—Nelson posits around two-thirds—will want to buy suburban homes because they like the lifestyle, or because they will be priced out of cities like Washington, D.C. or Los Angeles, where housing costs are exorbitant. Most of the other third, he says, will want to live in central cities and the oldest, closest suburbs—though not necessarily downtown. The small percentage who prefer downtown living but cannot afford certain cities may move to more affordable ones, such as Philadelphia or Minneapolis.”

    https://www.citylab.com/equity/2017/04/who-will-buy-baby-boomers-homes/522912/

  38. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Same guy, two different positions over time. At least he finally gets it….wish 3b could do the same.

    “Nelson pointed to the affordability issue as well as the fact that about a quarter of Millennials prefer urban housing, such as condos or townhouses, over the detached suburban homes that were the Boomers’ preferred habitat. Younger buyers, he said, will also be looking for starter homes—smaller than the big Colonials and split-levels that line America’s cul-de-sacs. “We can predict the next housing crash,” he said at the time. “That’ll be in about 2020.””

    “Regardless of when it occurs, the great senior sell-off won’t affect every Boomer equally. A large chunk of Millennials—Nelson posits around two-thirds—will want to buy suburban homes because they like the lifestyle, or because they will be priced out of cities like Washington, D.C. or Los Angeles, where housing costs are exorbitant. Most of the other third, he says, will want to live in central cities and the oldest, closest suburbs—though not necessarily downtown. The small percentage who prefer downtown living but cannot afford certain cities may move to more affordable ones, such as Philadelphia or Minneapolis.””

  39. Comrade Nom Deplume, Injustice of the Peace says:

    “Restorative Justice” is a euphemism for redistribution.

    Virtually every “______ Justice” is as well.

    That’s all they are.

    You will hear justifications based on metrics and economic theory and quasi-religious theory but at the end of the day, whenever anyone says justice that isn’t taking about operation of the rule of law, they mean redistribution. Which is why they will never let you engage them to force the thought to its logical conclusion.

  40. Comrade Nom Deplume, Injustice of the Peace says:

    ExEssex says:
    January 23, 2019 at 12:01 pm
    Restorative Justice… biiiig buzzword in LA and Calif schools.

    As long as we can firewall this sort of thing to California, then I have no problem with it. Let them cannibalize one another.

  41. ExEssex says:

    Don’t worry, they haven’t eaten into the 1% here, its still safe to be wealthy.

  42. ExEssex says:

    But yeah, the “thinking” is very different out here. I took a year and a half off just to decompress from my East Coast indoctrination. I keeeed i keeeed.

  43. 30 year realtor says:

    Provacateur,

    That maybe the dumbest and most racist thing ever posted here. That is a pretty high bar.

  44. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Here comes the rebound.

    “Billionaire Ken Griffin Buys America’s Most Expensive Home for $238 Million
    The record-breaking purchase of a New York City penthouse is the latest in a string of multimillion-dollar real-estate deals by the hedge-fund manager”

    https://apple.news/A4XeLSY2aSwK0Ug4Ra_z51w

  45. chicagofinance says:

    When I was on Kauai, I stayed at a B&B half-way between Lihue and Hanalei. The manager was some late 20-something from Texas. He basically had a connect the dots nothing job, and did a bear minimum at it. I asked him very politely and diplomatically WTF he was doing there…. and he looked at me incredulously, almost a blank stare….. he said “…the surf…” and stopped, as if it was completely self-explanatory. It was 1997. I wouldn’t be shocked if he is still there……

    The Original NJ ExPat says:
    January 23, 2019 at 1:46 pm
    And not old white, young white! Here we are, 8AM, a weekday, on a muddy, gravelly street and everyone around me looks like they just came off a movie set for a beach movie. It seemed to me like they were all 25-30 California surfers, and here they were, in the middle of nowhere in late November. Nobody, except me, seemed unfamiliar with the place. They all seemed like they lived there and met there every morning.

  46. chicagofinance says:

    bear s/b bare

  47. Blue Ribbon Teacher says:

    No one asked for that

  48. The Original NJ ExPat says:

    chi – I was there just a couple years later, late 2000. I asked some people why they were there. This answer stood out:

    “It’s like living in Tahiti or Fiji with none of the political risk or inconvenience. Plus…you can still get anything you want, it just costs a little bit more for shipping.” He might have even mentioned Amazon in that statement.

    When I was on Kauai

  49. Blue Ribbon Teacher says:

    Murphy is the kid in Little league that swung at the pitch 5 feet over his head.

  50. Blue Ribbon Teacher says:

    To be honest. If you are in Hawaii, you probably don’t need much.

  51. Bystander says:

    All knowing board. I have a 10 years old vehicle which I dropped collision insurance on in Nov. Of course, neighbor hits my car and about 3k damage. His fault and his insurance covering rental too. Since I had liability only, Enterprise bills collision to insurance company but they are refusing. Girl at desk said it is CT law unless they get waiver from state. What is deal? I have car but don’t want to liable.

  52. Yo! says:

    New Jersey 2018 home price stats out today, and 2018 was the best year in a decade for home prices. Single family house prices statewide +5.0%, a rapid acceleration. Hudson County led at 12%. Salem County worst at -5%.

    Seems like like Trump tax reforms didn’t have much of an impact. Hysterical predictions of home price declines did not come to pass. Josh Gottheimer, who has a suck-dick-for-cash relationship with the NAR, should be ashamed of his 2017 cable news appearances during which he predicted a big NJ home price decline in 2018.

  53. 1987 condo says:

    By, try a board like Bogleheads……

  54. The Great Pumpkin says:

    If it were not for the counties where nobody wants to live, my prediction for nj would have hit. Too bad you have the “ wannabe Alabama counties” still depreciating, killing the state overall avg.

    “Nj housing beats national avg. with 10% appreciation at the minimum as this market finally catches up to the rest the nation after ridding itself of foreclosures and as buyers fight over limited inventory in effort to buy before rates go up. Plus, nj economy finally doing well enough to support gains in housing.”

    Yo! says:
    January 23, 2019 at 8:14 pm
    New Jersey 2018 home price stats out today, and 2018 was the best year in a decade for home prices. Single family house prices statewide +5.0%, a rapid acceleration. Hudson County led at 12%. Salem County worst at -5%.

  55. The Great Pumpkin says:

    I did call correctly that nj would beat out national avg. Also, called nj would have hot year as it plays catch up. Pretty dead on with these two.

  56. The Great Pumpkin says:

    I’m calling this now….Debbie downer headlines are the only reason housing and stocks took a pause. It was a nonstop barrage of bad news headlines over and over. It’s like the media is trying to inject fear in the market…weird.

  57. Libturd...look me up in Costa Rica says:

    By,

    Enterprise by far, the worst car rental company of the majors. I do not rent from them regardless of price. They will lie to make as much money as they can. I have no idea about CT law. But I would strongly guess that they were trying to get you to buy their additional insurance that you most definitely don’t need if the accident was not your fault.

  58. Juice Box says:

    What could go wrong?

    “No Pay Stub? No Problem. Unconventional Mortgages Make a Comeback”

    https://www.realtor.com/news/real-estate-news/no-pay-stub-no-problem-unconventional-mortgages-make-comeback/

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