From HousingWire:
FHA says as many as 50,000 mortgages will be affected by new lending rules
Two weeks ago, the Federal Housing Administration took steps to mitigate risks to its single-family portfolio, announcing updates to its TOTAL Mortgage Scorecard that will flag some loans for manual underwriting.
The move upset a number of lenders who feared that some of their borrowers would be shut out of FHA financing and that borrowers who began the process but no longer qualified under new guidelines would be angry.
Turns out, their fears have some merit.
An FHA official told The Wall Street Journal that approximately 40,000 to 50,000 loans a year will likely be affected, which amounts to about 4-5% to all the mortgages the FHA insures on an annual basis.
“We have continued to endorse loans with more and more credit risk,” said FHA’s Chief Risk Officer Keith Becker. “We felt that it was appropriate to take some steps to mitigate the risks we’re seeing.”
The WSJ points out that the move is a complete reversal of the agency’s 2016 decision to loosen underwriting standards, nixing an old rule that required manual underwriting for loans with credit scores below 620 and a debt-to-income ratio above 43%.
But the agency’s annual report to Congress released in November revealed risk trends that threatened to drain the program, among them a significant increase in cash-out refinances, a drop in average borrower credit score, and a jump in borrowers with high DTIs.
Requiring manual underwriting for riskier loans is intended to curb these risks, and there’s a good chance a number of borrowers will no longer qualify.
According to Becker, it’s likely that many of the loans flagged for manual underwriting won’t end up passing muster.
Also from Housingwire:
Real estate agents say housing market is favoring buyers
Real estate agents say many of their buyers are encouraged by an expected surge of supply this spring, and that a number of them are taking a wait-and-see approach rather than hustling to get a deal done.
This market shift that puts the control in the hands of the buyer was revealed by a recent Credit Suisse survey of 500 real estate agents around the country.
…
Credit Suisse also said its survey revealed an uptick in incentives in markets like Las Vegas, Houston and Denver, and that Charlotte, Jacksonville, Florida; and New York – Northern New Jersey saw the largest gains in traffic.
…
3. New York-Northern New Jersey
“Demand is concentrated at the more affordable price points, including first-time and multi-family properties. Given the potential for further home price moderation, buyers seem willing to wait longer before purchasing.”
Hey Phil – maybe this can fill the hole in your budget from not passing legalized pot?
https://www.npr.org/sections/thesalt/2019/03/25/706635209/to-curb-kids-sugary-drink-habits-pediatricians-now-call-for-soda-taxes
By the way, the Philly soda tax?
Turns out it was a union supported political hit job:
Was Philadelphia’s Soda Tax the Result of a Union-Versus-Union Political Fight?
That’s the theory starting to emerge in the wake of a federal indictment against John “Johnny Doc” Dougherty, the longtime business manager of the International Brotherhood of Electrical Workers Local 98 and one of—if not the—most powerful political operators in the city.
According to federal prosecutors, Dougherty pressed allies on the city council—including Councilman Bobby Henon, who is also charged as part of the 116-count indictment—to pass the soda tax as retribution against the city’s Teamsters union, which had disagreed with IBEW Local 98 about which candidate to support during the city’s 2015 mayoral election. Dougherty’s preferred candidate, now-Mayor Jim Kenney, won that race.
In May 2015, according to the indictment, Dougherty was already planning to strike back at the Teamsters.
“Let me tell you what Bobby Henon’s going to do,” Dougherty told an unnamed IBEW Local 98 union official, according to the indictment. “They’re going to start to put a tax on soda again, and that will cost the Teamsters 100 jobs in Philly.”
Indeed, the Teamsters have opposed the soda tax since it was proposed in 2016—shortly after Kenney took office—and say the tax has cost jobs in Philadelphia.
Murphy is now a political unich
deGrom gets his extension…
I’m reading a financial blog and folks are saying in Virginia they are paying 4% on value of car in personal property tax. So you have 2 $40,000 cars/SUVs and you pay $3,200 annually in tax…that right?
“I am not saying I agree with Pumpkin – but I personally believe that very, VERY few people that are life-long renters make the conscious decision to rent as a method to increase their net-worth.”
Homoboken,
I agree with you. In my 16 years of slumlording, the only one’s who saved to buy, were middle aged couples who either just reared or were getting ready to. The two or three roommates situation always lived check-to-check. Funny, I never saved more money than when I was in the two roommate phase of my life. Heck, I once had 4 roommates and lived in a basement in Clifton (which is illegal) and paid $100 a month rent. That’s about the time I bought my first car.
Lib I don’t dispute that. But a similar thing can be said for the mortgage payer. Some don’t save a dime because it all goes to the mortgage payment and then perhaps a HELOC. They pay it off in 30 years let’s say and now they have a 20k property tax bill every year. Others sell maybe they make money on the house however you define that maybe they don’t. How much who knows 30 years out? Add up all the mortgage interest payments and property taxes over the years net everything out and the numbers are not compelling. Then of course the people who buy and then move in 7 to 10 years and restart the clock. SFH s are not the win win they were years ago when prices were 25k etc.
The Wealthy Renter book. I’m friends with the author. Still I think renters are losers, mostly.
https://www.amazon.com/Wealthy-Renter-Choose-Housing-That-ebook/dp/B01B2DK68E
3b,
I think we are both right. I am experiencing exactly what you are saying right now. I own two homes (as we all know). The property tax increases are really killing the goose that laid the golden egg. I think what people tend to forget (and this was the case with tuition increases at MSU as I called out our president on this in front of a large portion of students) is that a 5% increase on $10 is the same as a 10% increase on $5. In the case of property taxes, the percentage increase may drop slightly, but the total dollar increase over multiple years always grows. And with wages stagnant, it eats up all if not more than your annual salary increase (if you get one). Add on SALT and it’s like rubbing SALT in the wound (see what I did there).
87,
I have not lived in Northern Virginia in almost two decades but that seems high overall. If I recall, personal prop tax is collected by city/town which means it is probably much higher in towns closer to DC like Fairfax, Arlington and Alexandria. I bet those towns are over 4% now so probably if they live in northern part of state. Property and sales tax are much lower though.
Need to distinguish between people who rent by choice, not necessity, in any discussion. Two very different groups.
So, it’s my first full day back in Jersey after three out….moving a little slowly this morning so went for my bagel and coffee at 8:30a.
Round trip distance 2.4 miles…over half an hour door-to-door. Bagel shop busting with every fat ass and landscaper pork rolling it up with ketchup of course. Final quarter mile took eight minutes, country road can’t handle the three way intersection at ‘rush hour’. Which of course is the same exact road where 40+ new residential units are going up as the ‘gimmee’ to the builder for the 50+ COAH units he won elsewhere in town…
Many of you guys strongly believe NJ is the apex of current civilization, I understand that. Keep it. Please. There is nothing here one can’t obtain elsewhere easier, more sanely, and likely more cheaply (even after adjusting for income differences).
If you are here voluntarily you are certifiably one hundred percent batshit crazy, or frighteningly masochistic.
Good morning, New Jersey, lol.
LOL – MSNBC talking cunt just said that the President is talking about Mueller and Russia too much, and that’s not what the American people want to hear…
now MSNBC is talking about obstruction of justice…by tweet.
Letting where you living at? When I hit bodega-deli this morning it was busy with people grabbing coffee before heading to Manhattan where they make 2-3x what they’d earn in other locations except California
And 3B,
If it were not for the tax breaks and write-offs my LLC provides me, it would have been my worst investment ever. I still wish I just threw that downpayment in the market. And I bought all the way back in 2004 with a decent seller concession (no realtor’s commission). I am not surprised I am not able to get my Zillow price today. You’d have to be a fool to think it would make sense to buy a multi now.
Here’s the math for the newbies.
Put down 20% on a 485K purchase = $97,000. Over the years, sunk in $100K in improvements. Whatever money I took in over the mortgage/escrow went to repairs. So I am out 200K cash. If I sold it today. Best I could do would be $650K. But that’s before 45.5K in realtor fee and taxes to NJ. So I would pocket $605 before inspection crap (including that I still need to remove oil tank). Also keep in mind, I still have seven years to wait on my (now) 15 year mortgage. If I was on my original 30-year mortgage, I wouldn’t have barely any equity in the placeyet. As it is now, I still owe 210K on it. So if I sold tomorrow, it’s 605K – 200K -210K for a whopping profit of 195K on a 200K investment made 15 years ago! Had I invested in the DJIA, I would have made 500K!!!
So someone today who puts down 20%, is talking about putting down 130K. Their monthly nut is now $3883. Current rental income is $4,500. figure that $600 a month will go to maintenance. What do you think the house will be worth 30 years from now? Especially with property taxes that will easily go up $800 to $1,000 a year the rest of the way? Anyone wanna buy my place?
Unless you live in one of the units, it makes no sense to buy. Way better off renting.
Leftwing not letting
“where they make 2-3x what they’d earn in other locations…”
And pay 3-4x more in expense.
It’s not what earn, but what you keep brother.
Lib Great analysis as always. And you are always reasonable and nom hysterical in your responses. There was a time when SFH s were not only a place to raise a family but also made a great long term investment. My parents two family House was 17k when they bought it. They sold 30 years later for 185k. They put over the years about 25k in approvements. They sold it as noted and bought a SFH for the same price in a nice neighborhood. Their monthly taxes on the new house 145.00 a month. When they passed a family member bought the house and property taxes are 300.00 a month. It’s a different world today . I am the older guy and. I get it.
That was when there were low prices (2.5-3 times income), low property taxes, no state income tax, and high inflation. All of those conditions are now reversed. High prices (5 times income?), high property taxes, high state income tax, and low inflation.
There was a time when SFH s were not only a place to raise a family but also made a great long term investment.
With respect to renting/owning. As a couple, we could bank $40k a year renting a 1BR apartment. Now, with a $435k home, I can save about $20k a year, despite my salary being $40k higher. Lots of things happened, 2 kids etc…but still. IMO, appreciation and equity does not fill that gap.
I do prefer owning, but it’s not the financial benefit that many claim it is. I have a coworker, took an $8k hit. Water in the basement, every plumber said the best solution is french drain/pump. Turns out, after that, it was actually a sewer line leak. These types of gut punches don’t happen when you rent.
The SALT cap is reminding some people what they nearly forgot. What they forgot is that they pay high taxes in NJ.
I bet JJ is lurking and laughing from his $1.3 million brick mansion, $11K property taxes.
Markets are also forward looking. Just wait until the 12,000 standard deduction expires at the end of 2025 yet the salt cap remains. Bad news for real estate in New Jersey.
chi – Thinking of selling into this rally?
Viva Chips – The cheapest Zynga Facebook Poker Chips.
https://www.vivachips.com/
Ex True. But even when I bought my first house along with all of my friends and siblings in the mid to late 80s prices were still affordable. You could do it on one salary property taxes on my first house were 1800 a year. Those days are gone. And yet it’s still a great investment blah blah blah.
The fallacy in rent vs buy is most people wouldn’t be caught dead renting the kinds of properties they would be comfortable buying. Thus, the real world rental costs would be much higher than a straight comparison would assume. Rental prices would easily approach mortgage/PITI amounts.
All charges dropped against Jessie Smollet and his record will be expunged. Ain’t that America!!
Being the oddball, our rental is much nicer than the place we just sold and worth at least 50% more. Moved from 900 square feet 2 br, 1 bath to 2500 square feet 3br, 2.5 baths.
The fallacy in rent vs buy is most people wouldn’t be caught dead renting the kinds of properties they would be comfortable buying.
And my rent is 3 times what my mortgage payment was, so I guess that makes us really odd.
Here is the deal with rentals as a business, Essex county property taxes make residential rentals a hard game(esp places like Montclair), I’ve looked at it and cannot make the number make sense. High rents in NJ in the right town, with the right density is a good business bet, albeit to Libs point prices for good income property is out of whack at the moment, the sector is overbought and there is too much interest in it at the moment anything worth owning is selling for too much. The other thing with a multifamily investment is that is needs to be a long term investment even 15 years isn’t long enough, buy and hold. 2004 was a frothy time so even getting a good price isn’t good enough tell me about people who bought in 2000 or 2001. We are still on a low interest smack which is why it isn’t a great time to buy.
And my old Boston zip code is now Cool according to Zillow’s whereas it was Hot when I sold. Ironically, our new Boston zip code is now “Very Hot” by the same measure.
People should pay me to move to their neighborhood.
Stock price of biggest house rental company, Invitation Homes, blasting to all time high today.
Don’t have anything in NJ though.
Yes BRT, homes do come with a lot of surprises(expensive surprises). Pumpkin’s chosen suburban housing has a lot of drawbacks as an investment vehicle, more urban housing, higher density is where the money is at. Apartment complexes not 2 unit multi-family or SFH are the best place to invest in residential real estate. SFH are not an investment, they are a cost of living and represent the ability to create a stable living situation and insulate the buyer from inflation. I won’t pretend like pumpkin that prices are always going up but I at least know what my expenses will be outside of the ever increasing property taxes. Renters have no such stability, jersey city represents exactly that when I bought there my rent was $1900, today the same apartment is $3500, my taxes and maintenance have gone up but not nearly that much.
When I bought my apartment in Jersey City(a decade ago) it was no good as a cash flow investment, now with the crazy high rents it yields a 10-11% return on my invested cash(levered of course with a historically low mortgage rate. Between the cashflow and appreciation it was an excellent investment buying in suburbia hasn’t been so kind. My sister purchased a house in basking ridge 6 months before I bought a condo in JC and sold at a loss after investing money in renovations in 2013. Housing as an investment is a true cr*pshoot, it can go either way based on the tides of buyers wants and needs.
You buy a home because it suits your needs not as an investment.
AvalonBay, big NJ apartment landlord, popped to all time high this morning.
Salem County house prices up 84% this year. What is going on down there?!
Rent may not be stable in JC, but as a renter you have mobility. You can move to a nearby town and still minimize your cost of living. As I said, I do prefer owning the home. I view it as a cost, not a financial benefit.
On a side note, in terms of damage, my 5 and 7 year old kids have done at least $1500 of direct damage that required repairs or parts. As far wear and tear goes, hardwood floors, walls, outlets, doorknobs, hinges….I don’t even want to sum up the costs.
As a renter, none of that would matter.
And of course, there is the need to stay in the same property for a minimum of 7 years (probably closer to 12 or 13 now) in order to cover the acquiring and moving costs. It kills me how quickly people buy and sell. Back in the 2000s, it seemed like everyone was moving about every 3 years. So stupid.
The place I sold was in a nice pre-war, low rise (3 storeys) building(s), actually two mirror image building adjacent to Chestnut Hill Reservoir. The 1926 version of garden apartments, complete with hardwood throughout, high ceilings, fireplaces in 46 out of 50 units. This place was actually one of the first condo conversions in 1978, there are still a couple of original owner living there.
Anyway, when we bought in 2002 the prices were about $300K, we bought ours for $260K with no realtor, just dumb luck. When we moved in it was about 75% owner occupied, 25% renters, most of the renters were grad students or law students, no undergrads. Flash forward 17 years and I don’t know what’s going on. Lots of “investors”, particularly Asians, are buying these units up at $550K to the point where I think over the last two years it has now flipped to 25% owners and the investors are battling each other on rents, currently down to what looks like $2300 per month which is about $300 per month lower than a few years ago. I even see some of the nicer units with an extra 100 square feet and reservoir views going for $2300. How can you make money collecting $2300 rent on a $550K property, considering there is a $500 or so condo fee per month (includes heat) and $3500 annual in taxes?
I think the recent crop of investors is about to take a bath.
The best part about living there is that if you owner occupy you get about $1800 chopped off your tax bill, but investors don’t receive that benefit; That’s the whole point.
Like Homeboken explained to you, most renters do not take the savings and invest every penny of it. This is why they lose long term to homeowners who are FORCED TO SAVE MONEY.
Renting can be beneficial to owning, but it depends on a lot of circumstances, esp timing of the purchase.
What people leave out in their comparison of renting vs owning is the option to live in a home that is catered to my likings. You don’t get to update and design how you will live your life when you rent. You live according to the landlord’s likings, not your own. That’s a major cost to me, not being able to live my only life the way I want. I have to use their paint color, their floor color, and their floorplan. Nothing is my own. I have no ownership over my living conditions, and that blows. I don’t want some generic “renter” lifestyle that was created to profit off renters.
If I have to, I will live the life of a renter, but if I have money to spare, I will take my current lifestyle choices.
3b says:
March 25, 2019 at 9:32 pm
Life long renter saves and invests their money. Owner pays thousands in mortgage interest interest and property taxes. And the taxes are now capped
by the way. Plus maintenance. Owner sells the house and gets x amount more. Actually work the numbers and your argument may not be as compelling as you believe it to be. The days of an SFH being a great investment long term are no done. And now you have people who will be carrying mortgages into their 50s and 60s and retirement. It’s a different world lil pumps!
BRT – That’s exactly how I’ve always seen it. The only reason we bought is we wanted to avoid “forced” mobility while the kids were small. It’s hard enough to rent a nice place with a cat, much less, cat, newborn, toddler, etc. We bought when my oldest was 3 months old for just that reason. Now that they are 17 & 15 and nearing the end of high school, who cares if my landlords want to sell and have us leave (not the case, just sayin’). I just need to stay in Boston ’till 2022 and after that I might be getting Lib’s BBQ joint off the ground in CR full time.
Rent may not be stable in JC, but as a renter you have mobility. You can move to a nearby town and still minimize your cost of living. As I said, I do prefer owning the home. I view it as a cost, not a financial benefit.
You can’t. It’s called a bad investment. Maybe they are trying to find a safe place to park their money since you said they were Asian buyers.
“How can you make money collecting $2300 rent on a $550K property, considering there is a $500 or so condo fee per month (includes heat) and $3500 annual in taxes?”
Before we had kids and bought in Boston, we enjoyed the mobility. Between 1991 and 2002 we lived together in 8 places in four states. It was great. Then we settled down for 15 years and now we’re easing into the mobile life again.
Landlord business model is a long and slow process. You buy at a good price and hold. The longer you hold, the better the investment, esp if you initially bought at the wrong time.
JCer says:
March 26, 2019 at 11:36 am
Here is the deal with rentals as a business, Essex county property taxes make residential rentals a hard game(esp places like Montclair), I’ve looked at it and cannot make the number make sense. High rents in NJ in the right town, with the right density is a good business bet, albeit to Libs point prices for good income property is out of whack at the moment, the sector is overbought and there is too much interest in it at the moment anything worth owning is selling for too much. The other thing with a multifamily investment is that is needs to be a long term investment even 15 years isn’t long enough, buy and hold. 2004 was a frothy time so even getting a good price isn’t good enough tell me about people who bought in 2000 or 2001. We are still on a low interest smack which is why it isn’t a great time to buy.
I’m not talking one Asian investor, I’m talking about multiple Asian investors, all with Asian renters. I almost sold to one, but I sold to a while lawyer instead.
You can’t. It’s called a bad investment. Maybe they are trying to find a safe place to park their money since you said they were Asian buyers.
white lawyer
“You buy a home because it suits your needs not as an investment.”
^^^^^^This.
I think some
investorsfools think if they just buy with cash, they can take the immediate cash flow and wait for price appreciation to make them money. Ironically, falling interest rates may make properties fall in price for buyers and renters and guarantee losses for investors. I guess they can f.uck around on their taxes to try to make it back.Chicago has got to be the most corrupt city in the US. Like…worse than DC.
Rent vs owning is a moving variable based on a lot of circumstances.
If I wanted to rent my current home, how much would it cost? I would assume it would be at the minimum 5,500 a month (prob more). How the hell am I saving money renting my current residence in comparison to owning? I’m not.
Expat gave an example of a renter having the advantage with his old building. This is not the norm. I can’t just go out looking for a rental that will be significantly cheaper than owning. It’s not easy because, at the end of the day, the owner has to profit from renting out his place. You are not going to let a renter depreciate the property with wear and tear, and then pick up the cost for them. Landlords are not charities, they are running a business.
I think this lady botched the investigation on purpose
https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/chicago-police-union-wants-federal-probe-jussie-smollett-case-n985146
Chicago – where everything turns out great.
All charges dropped against Jessie Smollet and his record will be expunged. Ain’t that America!!
Jussie and OJ should work together to find the real attackers.
This is lib and I. I bought earlier in the cycle than he did and made out like a bandit. I killed it on appreciation and passive income. Timing is everything with any investment. Pure dumb luck. For him, his investment can’t compare to stocks. For me, stocks couldn’t touch my investment. It’s impossible for me to lose now. I took 40,000 and in 20 years turned that into hundreds of thousands in equity while producing 60,000 in revenue for the year. After taxes and costs, I’m taking home in passive income close to what my initial investment was (not including all the equity built).
So investing is not a black and white world. So many variables come into play on any investment. So to sit here and say renting is better than owning because the stock market outperforms housing could be true, but it is not fact. It depends on many variables.
“2004 was a frothy time so even getting a good price isn’t good enough tell me about people who bought in 2000 or 2001. We are still on a low interest smack which is why it isn’t a great time to buy.”
I would probably be charging you for it if you rented from me. Remember, a landlord can hold the tenant accountable for charges that are more than their security deposit.
Normal wear and tear is acceptable, but not damage. That’s why it is almost impossible to find a good rental when you have kids. You are not getting anything good. Most landlords don’t want the risk or headache.
Blue Ribbon Teacher says:
March 26, 2019 at 12:08 pm
On a side note, in terms of damage, my 5 and 7 year old kids have done at least $1500 of direct damage that required repairs or parts. As far wear and tear goes, hardwood floors, walls, outlets, doorknobs, hinges….I don’t even want to sum up the costs.
As a renter, none of that would matter.
On Smollet. The guy is obviously an asshole. So much so that I’m sure the cops in Chicago went above and beyond their rights as police officers to implicate him. If there was any corruption in this case, it’s within the police department. Though I am disappointed that Jessie gets to walk. I am happy to see justice served properly. Just think of all of the non-celebrities who get fuked by that same police force. It seems, nearly every day on the news, there is a story about some poor black kid that is being released after serving 7 or 8 years for something they were wrongly accused of.
To read this any other way is to not respect the law. If the police, much like the Democrats, want to earn some respect. They need to start taking the high road. Every fukcin time a celebrity is involved, they completely screw it up. I’m surprised Bill Cosby wasn’t released yet.
Agreed.
I guess when people were doubling the price of their property in two years, they had no problem taking on the moving costs. Felt rich all of a sudden…lmao. Only problem with this, you are playing a game of musical chairs. You have to rent after selling. If you purchase right away, you are only leveraging the risk till you get caught in the glue trap and lose significantly when it busts.
Libturd, can’t say I didn’t warn you. says:
March 26, 2019 at 12:14 pm
And of course, there is the need to stay in the same property for a minimum of 7 years (probably closer to 12 or 13 now) in order to cover the acquiring and moving costs. It kills me how quickly people buy and sell. Back in the 2000s, it seemed like everyone was moving about every 3 years. So stupid.
I look for the two or three roommate situation when I rent my place out. Though they tend to party which occasionally breaks things. They also tend to fix the things they break. They also have a tendency to NEVER call me. The latest tenants I got in the big unit are many, many, many times better than the Millenial couple who I rented it to for two years prior. The last and only text I got from them was, mind if we hook the water sensors up to our own phones so we know if there’s a problem in the basement? They didn’t even ask me for directions. They’ll figure it out.
D-FENS says:
March 26, 2019 at 12:56 pm
I think this lady botched the investigation on purpose
https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/chicago-police-union-wants-federal-probe-jussie-smollett-case-n985146
I predicted weeks ago that Chicago would not want to try this guy because they fear the race card. This is one way out. CPD did its job and the black DA is willing to play the naked race card because the upside to that outweighs the downside.
Doesn’t hurt race relations as much as OJ did but it doesn’t help either
I would probably be charging you for it if you rented from me. Remember, a landlord can hold the tenant accountable for charges that are more than their security deposit.
Normal wear and tear is acceptable, but not damage. That’s why it is almost impossible to find a good rental when you have kids. You are not getting anything good. Most landlords don’t want the risk or headache.
And I would take you to court and win double the deposit back.
What does “this” mean? I want to stay away from adjusting during quarter end. China stimulus bled into Euro rates, which in turn crushed yields here….. fixed income market is overbought, but why? It in the short run, I want to lighten up on industrials and banks, but there is a price to be paid for that…… to be clear, these rates suggest P/E expansion…… hasn’t happened yet…… something needs to give…. rates or stocks….. there is building pressure, but the quarter-end is interfering with normal dynamics…. I think the next move is up, then subsequently a FOMO rally, but if we reject these levels, then we will sell off A LOT…..
The Original NJ ExPat says:
March 26, 2019 at 11:18 am
chi – Thinking of selling into this rally?
ChiFi,
I am also thinking about lightening up my stock load. Though I’ve heard a lot of the same things about one more up rally being possible. The inverted yield curve is a scary portender of what’s to come, but it’s impossible to tell if it’s now or in another two years. I think I am going to start pulling back the reigns a little at a time. I’ll probably start with about a 15% move from growth to something more stapley and dividendy. This bull market is getting long in the tooth.
Even Rahm Emmanuel is pissed off. Fkucked up.
https://twitter.com/ABC/status/1110603489326125056
Rahm Emanuel: “Mr. Smollett is still saying that he is innocent, still running down the Chicago Police Dept. How dare him?”
“You have a person using hate crime laws…to advance your career and your financial reward. Is there no decency in this man?
I meant this morning’s rally (which is almost gone now). Falling yields, rising dollar, rising stock prices. IMO, only two of those can continue the current trend. I didn’t sell whole hog, just reduced some positions. It’d be ironic if Trump was right in the fall and the Fed went one raise too far, maybe need to take it back to correct the yield curve? Cash looks pretty attractive to some when it is at the same yield as the 10 year.
What does “this” mean?
Good luck! If I charge you for damage, I make sure to back myself up with the evidence I need to win in court. It’s all about supporting your case….
“And I would take you to court and win double the deposit back.”
D,
I’d be pissed too. But they have the wrong victim. You don’t just GET OFF on such a clear-cut case. The prosecutor needs to have some damning evidence. In my opinion, the fact they checked his medical background without warrant is enough for me. Fcuk those cops. Dude was so guilty there was no reason to not follow protocol. Lord knows the entire department was high-fiving each other once they proved he made the sh1t up. I wonder how they feel today. I hope some head’s roll. This is not about Jessie. He is already ruined. This is about the cops now.
Looks like it is coming soon…either 2020 or 2021. Sooner, the better.
“Mr. Baumohl expects growth to slow in 2019, although he says there should be enough momentum in the economy to keep it from contracting this year. And he doesn’t expect traditional models will be particularly effective at predicting when the eventual contraction does come.
“Come July, we’re going to be in completely uncharted territory,” when the current economic expansion becomes the longest ever, entering its 11th year of growth, he said.
(Explore the WSJ Economists Survey)
Mr. Baumohl expects the next recession to start in the first quarter of 2021, according to the most recent monthly Wall Street Journal survey, conducted in early March. He was one of about a third of forecasters who expect a downturn in 2021, while a larger number, just under half, see the next recession starting next year.”
https://www.wsj.com/articles/meet-bernard-baumohl-wsj-surveys-most-accurate-economic-forecaster-in-2018-11553592600
Libturd, can’t say I didn’t warn you. says:
March 26, 2019 at 2:01 pm
ChiFi,
I am also thinking about lightening up my stock load. Though I’ve heard a lot of the same things about one more up rally being possible. The inverted yield curve is a scary portender of what’s to come, but it’s impossible to tell if it’s now or in another two years. I think I am going to start pulling back the reigns a little at a time. I’ll probably start with about a 15% move from growth to something more stapley and dividendy. This bull market is getting long in the tooth.
Something fish there for sure.
JUSSIE SMOLLETT
ALLIES ASKED SA KIM FOXX TO INTERVENE …
Leaked Texts, Emails Show
https://www.tmz.com/2019/03/26/kim-foxx-jussie-smollett-case-recuse-charges-dropped/
Libturd, can’t say I didn’t warn you. says:
March 26, 2019 at 3:03 pm
D,
I’d be pissed too. But they have the wrong victim. You don’t just GET OFF on such a clear-cut case.
We’ll see how it plays out. The SA just kissed her career goodbye over this if this was really her doing. Now why would she do that?
3b,
Good read for you. Wash, rinse, repeat… nothing changes.
“A Decade After the Housing Bust, the Exurbs Are Back
Home buyers, often millennials, are looking farther away for affordable housing, even if that means a long commute”
https://www.wsj.com/articles/a-decade-after-the-housing-bust-the-exurbs-are-back-11553610771?mod=hp_lead_pos8
They have better things to do I guess…
@juliebosman
NEW from Chicago: Joe Magats, the first assistant state’s attorney who made the final decision to drop the charges against Jussie Smollett, says in an interview: “We didn’t exonerate him.”
@juliebosman
Magats, the asst state’s atty, said he saw no problems with the police investigation or the evidence against Smollett. The charges against Smollett were dropped in return for his agreement to do community service, he said, and for forfeiting his bond to the city of Chicago.
@juliebosman
More from the asst state’s attorney: “Here’s the thing — we work to prioritize violent crime and the drivers of violent crime. Public safety is our number one priority. I don’t see Jussie Smollett as a threat to public safety.”
@juliebosman
“We stand behind the investigation, we stand behind the decision to charge him and we stand behind the charges in the case. The mere fact that it was disposed of in an alternative manner does not mean that there were any problems or infirmities in the case or the evidence.”
Pay extra attention to this, 3b. This was exactly what I tried to tell you. Spill over…everything changes, yet nothing changes. It’s all cycles.
“In recent years, millennials have driven demand for rental apartments in downtown areas. Some in the industry thought this could be a permanent phenomenon. And yet, as they begin to marry and have children, millennials are proving like generations before them that they are willing to move to more affordable outlying areas.”
Pumps stop with your sillines. You are convincing by yourself not me. Just on your headline article I would add this so now they are skipping the suburbs and going to the exurbs so is Wayne now an exurb? Or are they going to skip right over the suburbs and go to the exurbs And are they late 20s early 30s or late 30 s eay 40s and beyond that has been my point to you and others regarding young people and buying houses today. They are not young they are now middle age or fast approaching middle age old ass millenials.
Some old Clot
My rejoinder to Mr. Kass:
1. Housing affordability is at a multi-decade high.
Clot: Housing was also this affordable when “Brother Can You Spare a Dime” was in the Top 10.
2. Reflecting normal U.S. demographic trends (household formations of 1 million-plus per year) and a low level of 2008-2012 new-home production, there is plenty of pent-up demand ready to be unleashed.
Clot: If only the pent-up demand could be persuaded to get a job that would support a mortgage and upkeep and leave Dad’s basement.
3. As rental prices have risen and as home prices have fallen, the economics of home ownership has improved.
Clot: The economics of home ownership have improved…only if you buy in North Dakota.
4. We have seen a decisive improvement in the jobs market.
Clot: Want fries with that?
5. Mortgage rates are at historic lows.
Clot: Mortgage rates were at historic lows on the day Lehman collapsed (see also: “pushing on a string”).
6. Housing surveys have turned positive.
Clot: Where else could James Cameron go once he hit the bottom of the Mariana Trench?
7. Confidence is improving.
Clot: That “confidence” is backed by the financial version of Ci@lis.
_____________________________________________________________________________
Don’t buy any RE whose perimeter you can’t harden.
_____________________________________
guy near me just closed. bought 2006 for 617,500 sold 2012 for 480K. His “sweat equity” really paid off.
End result 11k taxes for six years is 66K, six years home insurance 12k, 137,500 loss on home. I know he painted whole house, sanded floors, few new appliances, tree removal and new fence so at least 20K in repairs.
So total loss of 234, 500. Not counting six years of mortgage payments and huge stress. Poor guy sold his tiny cape he owned almost outright to buy a large split at peak of bubble. Put down over 200K so he ate the loss. Now he is renting. If he just stayed in his little cape he could be trading up now for cash. But instead the money pitt has left him with no home and no savings. His wife is hot though.
______________________________
I’m sure you do. You seem like someone that covers all your bases. Haha. Don’t make me laugh.
At my last court battle, the judge asked me if I was prepping for a murder case.
He shoulda read the blog.
BTW…I’m sure you’ve never been to court and are just talking outta ur butt.
Are you insinuating that the WSJ puts out bs articles?
The same process happens every housing cycle. The only thing different this time, the age demographics have been pushed back a decade. So no one is purchasing or starting a family in their 20s. They are now doing it in their 30s and some in their 40’s.
Guess what else is getting pushed back for these generations…,their retirement. They won’t be retiring in their 50s or 60s, that’s for sure. So 60s got lucky few, and 70’s for the majority.
3b says:
March 26, 2019 at 3:49 pm
Pumps stop with your sillines. You are convincing by yourself not me. Just on your headline article I would add this so now they are skipping the suburbs and going to the exurbs so is Wayne now an exurb? Or are they going to skip right over the suburbs and go to the exurbs And are they late 20s early 30s or late 30 s eay 40s and beyond that has been my point to you and others regarding young people and buying houses today. They are not young they are now middle age or fast approaching middle age old ass millenials.
Rather simple process I run. I take lots of pictures before they move in, and explain to them that they won’t be getting their deposit back if it is not returned in the same manner.
If you present your case to the judge in this manner, you will not lose unless the judge is a total jerkoff having a bad day.
Renter does not have the right to destroy your property and get away with it. If you don’t take initial pictures and have no evidence to support your position, chances are you will not win in court. Those are the landlords that cry that renter’s have too many rights.
Blue Ribbon Teacher says:
March 26, 2019 at 5:57 pm
BTW…I’m sure you’ve never been to court and are just talking outta ur butt.
Pumps are you suggesting that if you read something in the WSJ or any other publication that it must be true? Or is it only true if it supports your beliefs? Because other publications that publish articles that don’t support your beliefs are bs. There is the critical thinking matter again.
And as far as pushed off a decade it’s far more complicated than the financial crisis although that is part of it. So now you reluctantly concede that it’s 30s but you can’t bring yourself to say late 30s and you say some 40s. Because you don’t want to admit it even though the census bureau says that is the only female demographic where the birth rate is increasing. Of course people having children in their 40s and taking mortgages on at that age lends itself to other issues. The point is the housing market has changed fundamentally not a cycle but a radical shift in my opinion from what it had been over the last 60 years or so.
I just don’t agree with using people that buy in an obvious bubble as an example of why purchasing a home is a bad idea.
There is a right time to buy, and a wrong time. When you see huge appreciation in consecutive years, do some investigating of the market before you purchase. It still might be safe depending on the market, but chances are you should not buy.
Don’t question the WSJ, it’s a reliable source. If you read the article, it’s supported by a wealth of data acknowledging people pushing out further in search of lower costs that they can afford.
I agree that this isn’t the same housing market because times have changed. Twenty somethings don’t get jobs, so they will never be having kids at this age demographic again. A significant higher percentage goes to college compared to 50 years ago. It just pushes adulthood back. I’m not lying when I say 30 is the new 20. It’s the truth.
Back in the day, most had homes at 25 because they had been working full time at decent paying job for 7 years already while living at home. They worked right out of high school. How many 20 year olds today can say they even had a job once in their life? Yes, times have changed and everything got pushed back a decade.
3b says:
March 26, 2019 at 6:58 pm
Pumps are you suggesting that if you read something in the WSJ or any other publication that it must be true? Or is it only true if it supports your beliefs? Because other publications that publish articles that don’t support your beliefs are bs. There is the critical thinking matter again.
Sorry, I would have never rented your shitty house to begin with. Especially after talking to you in person for 5 minutes. Second, I fixed everything in the places I rented.
My post was about how kids put wear and tear on your own home. When kids whipped open the storm door in that wind storm, it bent both pistons. When my son tripped and went head first into the wall, he cracked the socket outlet. When my daughter tried to tarzan off my expensive shades, she took the whole assembly down and ripped the screws out of the wall. I replaced everything new.
If I was renting, I would have bent the pistons back in place. I would have glued the socket outlet plate back together. And I would have filled the holes with putty and reinstalled the shade 2 mm lower. And no, you couldn’t take me to court or charge me for it.
And landlord tenant disputes are not as simple as taking pictures. If you want it to go to trial, you have to have done everything leading up to it just to qualify attempting to charge. For example, you needed to place a deposit into an interest bearing account and notify the tenant of the interest earned each and every year. Not doing that alone disqualifies you from being able to withhold a single cent of the deposit.
I was in Mercer county court where the judge literally said to another landlord, you may think you were acting in a just and honest fashion, but according to the letter of the law, you did not follow the necessary steps to do so.
And now I know you’ve never been to court because the judge doesn’t talk to you, you present your case to the mediator and they spend 5 hours trying to get you to settle before the judge even makes eye contact with you.
Worse yet, the ones who don’t move and keep restarting the 30 year clock. I put 40% down and double paid my mortgage every month for about 2 years, and I was unemployed that whole time!
My belief is that kids just get so indoctrinated with monthly payments right from the get go (starting with their cell phones now) that they are on that path for life. Back in my day we graduated college with no debt and paid rent. Lunch time discussions were about whether you should buy a new car with (3 year! none longer) payments or not. Cable TV monthly bill or not, etc. I’m pretty sure I had $300 rent and the cost of a landline and that was the extent of my monthly nut; everything else was either saved, or saved for.
Then of course the people who buy and then move in 7 to 10 years and restart the clock.
Just some thoughts.
Housing should not have the same returns as the housing market on the simple basis of risk. When you purchase real estate, you have zero chance of losing it all. You have almost no chance of even losing 50% unless you are an idiot.
Try doing that with stocks. Companies don’t live long. Unless you are an insider or read diligently about the company (aka work), by the time you catch wind of the bad news you already took a major haircut. Stocks are volatile and can take you down at any moment, not the same with real estate.
Real estate, everything is slow moving . Stocks, rapid fire.
In my mind, this is why real estate is a better investment for the majority. It’s much easier investment vehicle for the common man. For guys on this board, much better off with stocks. You have the know how to be successful with stocks. The common man is financially illiterate.
*Housing should not have the same returns as the stock market
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Exxon Mobile and Coca Cola can crash at any moment?
Not likely, but anything can happen.
Again, I was only speaking about the common man. They are food for the sharks in that market.
Blue Ribbon Teacher says:
March 26, 2019 at 8:15 pm
Exxon Mobile and Coca Cola can crash at any moment?
Don’t question the WSJ because it’s a reliable source because one article supports your belief. If the source does not support your belief it is unreliable. I stoped after reading that first line in your post. You truly are a piece of work and that’s not a compliment!
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Oh and pumps I went back and read your last post. We are had houses 3 to 4 years out of college.
Rockland County, which has a population of more than 300,000 people, has had 153 confirmed cases of measles since October, with 48 of the cases since the beginning of 2019, county spokesman John Lyon told the newspaper.
Not Jersey…. but….
The outbreak was centered in an Orthodox Jewish community where many residents had not been vaccinated, CBS News New York reported. Most of the cases now are clustered in eastern Ramapo, home to a high percentage of haredi Orthodox Jews.
County Executive Ed Day said in a news conference on Tuesday that many Orthodox rabbis have been working with health officials to encourage vaccination in their community.
The only safe bet is pancake in a can and wage inflation.
Not likely, but anything can happen.
Again, I was only speaking about the common man. They are food for the sharks in that market.
Blue Ribbon Teacher says:
March 26, 2019 at 8:15 pm
Exxon Mobile and Coca Cola can crash at any moment?
Pumps, hate to break it to you but landlord tenant court is no picnic. Forget about eviction…..non-payment is the only easy one and forget it if the tenant has a sob story and agrees to a payment plan. In general pictures and a move in checklist signed by the tenant agreeing to the condition of all the listed items is needed and as BRT indicated you better have followed the letter of the law with respect to the security deposit and the necessary disclosures and annual interest payments.
Judges also tend to favor the tenant in NJ. I’ve seen some horrifying pictures where the landlords didn’t prevail, I’m talking filth so bad that kitchen cabinets and appliances needed to be replaced. The judges didn’t consider dirt and grease to be enough damage despite the need to totally redo an apartment.
It’s best to have a good tenant and one who will back down over the threat of going to court. Most employed people simply don’t have time, d-bags will fight you for a nickel and the liberal courts in NJ cater to them.
Also pumps most people lose on housing. It takes luck, no different from the stock market. I bought apple stock in 1996 split adjusted for something like $0.93 per share, it’s $200 today it could have easily gone to $0. I bought an apartment in JC in 2009, a good time to buy, made money…just as easily could have bought in 1987. It would have taken until 2003 to make my money back. No such thing as an easy investment, you need to be diversified and evaluate assets based on facts. Right now buying stocks provides more cashflow and potential upside than most residential real estate(as it is credit sensitive)