Uneven recovery or catch up?

From CNBC:

Uneven housing recovery persists, with some markets still behind their pre-recession peak

With the U.S housing bubble far in the rearview mirror, home prices in most places have passed their pre-recession peak. In other spots, though, it’s a different story.

“Some markets that experienced a huge run-up and then a big downturn are still waiting for a recovery,” said Lawrence Yun, chief economist for the National Association of Realtors. “For some people, the decline from the time they purchased was so severe that it’s taking a long time to recover.”

In Winchester, Virginia, for example, the median home price of $225,000 remains below its March 2006 peak of $270,900. In Naples, Florida, the median price of $337,100 is less than its July 2006 peak of $457,200.

Nationally, the median home price is $226,700, according to Zillow. That’s about 13% more than its 2007 peak of $200,500.

Prices have pushed far higher than their previous peaks in some metro areas. For example, in Midland, Texas, the current median of $261,100 is 75% above its May 2008 peak price of $149,300.

For markets where home prices have surpassed their previous peak and continue to rise, local dynamics could contribute to prices moving even higher.

“In places like Dallas and Nashville that are creating jobs faster than the national average and people are coming into those regions, there’s steady demand,” Yun said. “In those markets, I wouldn’t be concerned about buying at the top.

“Homebuyers might not see a sharp run-up in prices, but they’d probably see steady increases.”

And while housing inflation has cooled somewhat, affordability issues in some spots — such as New York City and San Francisco — are likely to persist as long as job growth remains and building new homes in already-crowded areas is a challenge.

This entry was posted in Demographics, Economics, National Real Estate, New Development. Bookmark the permalink.

54 Responses to Uneven recovery or catch up?

  1. Bystander says:

    Frist..really? Wake up, NJ.

  2. 30 year realtor says:

    Recently I have been working on the Tenafly and Franklin Lakes markets. Luxury homes on the East Hill of Tenafly are down about 25% from peak 2006 values and in Franklin Lakes they are down 40%.

    One of the most interesting observations about Tenafly is that a new 5000 GLA home on the East Hill is selling for about 10% more than a similar home in a west side Tenafly location. It appears that the substantially lower tax assessments on the west side of Tenafly and the resulting lower tax bills have narrowed the value gap.

  3. Yo! says:

    30 year, why is lux FL -40%?

    Salem prices +63% and Sussex +14% year today. Anybody know why these areas are suddenly booming after 10+ years of declining home values?

  4. Yo! says:

    Year to date

  5. Not 30.5yrs says:

    30yrs,

    From your observations. Does it seem to be a correlation between immigrants (Indian/Chineses/etc) speculators moving in to an area affecting price because they bid up as they gamble/flip. What I mean is there is way more immigrants than whites in Tenafly vs Franklin Lakes. So a higher number of immigrant gambler/flippers would affect the prices.

    Yo,

    Salem lives or die with Atlantic City and the southern NJ economy. Sussex is where people that could not afford the shore went in the late 80’s and 90’s. Like the Billy Joel song, ” Moved up to Hackensack, than Forked River, than Newton”

  6. The Original NJ ExPat says:

    Justice Democrats (@justicedems) 3 hours ago:

    While we’re going to support the Democratic nominee, we can’t let a so-called ‘centrist‘ like Joe Biden divide the Democratic Party and turn it into the party of ‘No, we can’t.’

    Me 3 weeks ago:

    The Original NJ ExPat says:
    April 7, 2019 at 1:12 am
    I just figured out the whole Biden deal:

    Biden needs to be taken out quickly by the Democrats otherwise the general election will boil down to…

    The centrist with the great economy who maybe groped women in private 20 years ago
    vs
    The centrist who was 2nd banana in the previous lackluster economy who groped women in public 20 minutes ago

  7. The Original NJ ExPat says:

    If you want to consider bubble highs as the “previous peak”, just look to the Nasdaq Composite. It took over 15 years to get back to it’s 2000 dot com bubble “peak”.

  8. Libturd, can't say I didn't warn you. says:

    Who are Justice Democrats?

    Second, Pumps last post last night was exactly right. It’s incredibly obvious that the Right is responsible for painting the Left as wannaba Venezuelan soc1alists. It’s a smart strategy, though it’s completely not true.

    Trump didn’t get elected because Obama sucked. Trump got elected because Hillary sucked. Without that family in the race, and really, without much that you can really attack on Biden’s character (besides the fact he’s overly affectionate), especially when compared to Trump, whose character can best be described as slightly better than John Belushi. It’s no surprise that the only strategy is to attack the entire party rather than the individual. Can’t wait to see the jump in the polls when Biden officially announces.

    I’ll add one more caveat too.

    The Dems lost a very close race in 2016. And this was with a very unexciting HRC as candidate. There was little motivation to show up at the polls for many Dems (like me). Me thinks the Dem poll numbers will be the absolutely highest on record ever come election day. Now, I know Trump has his devotees. But by and large, there is still tons of hatred for the man even within his own party. Where’s the motivation going to come from for right voters? Me thinks a lot more stay home then when the option was to vote against admitted crooked Hillary.

    Though, it will still be interesting to watch the lying mill, which pretty much got Trump elected, continue to try to do what it did with so little ammo left.

  9. The Original NJ ExPat says:

    30 year – btw, that 65 Rutland Ave build lot in Glen Rock sold in December for $552K. It was bought by an LLC with the same name and address as a Concrete Paving company in Lodi.

  10. The Original NJ ExPat says:

    ^^^ I must be money dyslexic, it was $525K

  11. The Original NJ ExPat says:

    The left are cultural Marxists. Well…100% of Bernie’s supporters plus everyone on the left who posts on Twitter, anyway.

  12. Libturd, can't say I didn't warn you. says:

    Facebook is flying while FedEx is dying.

    It’s a strange new world we live in.

  13. Libturd, can't say I didn't warn you. says:

    Bernie isn’t even as far left as he could be. Though I am not surprised by his popularity. After all, when you pilfer the middle class and continue to throw crumbs at the lower class, the only option left for the majority is soc1alism. Even if it it doesn’t work. For what is currently occurring, is not working for the majority either. Greed will always eventually kill the free market.

  14. The Original NJ ExPat says:

    Maybe Trump’s election(s) can be chalked up to Occam’s razor?

    When is a two term president ever succeeded by the candidate representing the same party? Bush on the heels of Reagan is the only example since WW II.

    When does a first term president keep control of both houses during the midterm election? Never?

    Short of death in office, when does an incumbent president not get re-elected? Ford(who was never elected in the first place), Carter, Bush I, none since.

  15. Libturd, can't say I didn't warn you. says:

    The weird thing to me about the Trump win was that Obama had a pretty good economy rolling. Normally, the economy has to turn for the incumbent party to lose. Then again, when the Veep doesn’t run, it always seems to disrupt the pattern.

    Regardless, this 2020 campaign will be by far the dirtiest ever. If Biden was smart, he wouldn’t talk for the next year and a half. Just put his positions out on the old website and then hide in a cave until the Dem convention.

  16. The Original NJ ExPat says:

    Isn’t the “majority” defined as somewhere North of 50% of the population? Isn’t that the group that already pay zero income tax plus no more than 3% more of the population who pay almost zero income tax?

    If you accept that premise, that 50+% already has social1sm, no? They just want new and improved social1sm with higher take rates.

    I think I may have accidentally just proven your point.

    For what is currently occurring, is not working for the majority either. Greed will always eventually kill the free market.

  17. The Original NJ ExPat says:

    I think you are curve fitting. The opposite party nearly always wins after every re-elected president. If the economy “has to turn” for the incumbent party to lose that would imply that almost every incumbent party has magically produced a bad economy in the second term, except for Obama? BTW, weren’t we all bitching about stagnant wages under Obama?

    Now for people like Pumps, who has a grasp of history that doesn’t even go back before 2010, you can find all kinds of, as he says, “trends and demographic cycles”, but the long term trends of two terms and out has a stellar long term trend.

    Now, if you want to state your hypothesis differently, something like “bad economic conditions often result in a failed re-election attempt”, there may be some meat on that bone…until you back test to FDR.

    The weird thing to me about the Trump win was that Obama had a pretty good economy rolling. Normally, the economy has to turn for the incumbent party to lose. Then again, when the Veep doesn’t run, it always seems to disrupt the pattern.

  18. The Original NJ ExPat says:

    I think you are curve fitting. The opposite party nearly always wins after every re-elected president. If the economy “has to turn” for the incumbent party to lose that would imply that almost every incumbent party has magically produced a bad economy in the second term, except for Obama? BTW, weren’t we all bitching about stagnant wages under Obama?

    Now for people like Pumps, who has a grasp of history that doesn’t even go back before 2010, you can find all kinds of, as he says, “trends and demographic cycles”, but the long term trends of two terms and out has a stellar long term trend.

    Now, if you want to state your hypothesis differently, something like “bad economic conditions often result in a failed re-election attempt”, there may be some meat on that bone…until you back test to FDR.

    The weird thing to me about the Trump win was that Obama had a pretty good economy rolling. Normally, the economy has to turn for the incumbent party to lose. Then again, when the Veep doesn’t run, it always seems to disrupt the pattern.

  19. The Original NJ ExPat says:

    ^^^LOL. I accidentally double-clicked “Post Comment”. I guess I was too fast for the wordpress software to catch me.

  20. No One says:

    Biden: I think will turn out to be too old, white and male for the dems voting in primaries.
    Who are the Justice Democrats? Libturd, the new left wing in the Democratic party are the hardest left I’ve ever seen. I see their high-school and college-age devotees and these brats really are like the Chinese Red Guard from the 60s. Some really do want to become like what Chavez promised Venezuela (of course few admit to wanting what Venezuela actually got). But many have been defending Venezuela as it took this path. Or celebrating Cuba.
    To show my balance, I think the Republicans have become the most unintelligent and boorish Republicans I’ve ever seen in 40 years.
    Trump in his victory got almost the same number of votes as Romney in his loss. It basically came down to Obama’s ability to get out the vote, and Hilldog’s ability to repel her voters. I suspect the battle was won by who could get poorly educated males to vote for them. I remember Trump in a speech saying “I love the poorly educated!” Probably the first time I’ve seen a president single them out and ask for their vote directly.

    I think Trump is the intellectual finishing blow to the Republican party I once kinda liked. Both parties are now collectivist in essence. Dems are the most collectivist, but these new nativist Repubs are increasingly going that direction. Neither care much about liberty or individual rights.

  21. The Original NJ ExPat says:

    They should resurrect “The Know Nothing Party” as their caucus name, it would be more appropriate:

    https://www.justicedemocrats.com/home

  22. ExEssex says:

    Unexpected Belushi reference…Everyone assumed Belushi was using drugs, and the suspicions were absolutely correct. He had long been known to be an all-in sort, devouring food and booze and controlled substances with the same impressive gusto with which he dove into physical comedy. His superhuman capacity had always been a point of amazement, and he wasn’t shy about boasting of it. Heedless hedonism was one of his comic gifts, and he made great comedy of his appetites onscreen and off. But the state of him that winter wasn’t a piece of acting. He had been drinking and smoking pot and, especially, using cocaine all day, every day, for a long time, and he’d begun to dabble in heroin — partly, he would tell people, as research for a movie he wanted to make about the punk rock scene.

    Given that it was Hollywood and the early ’80s, this sort of behavior, while extreme, was often tolerated: You generate income for entertainment conglomerates, they don’t care too much what you do with your free time or to yourself. But Belushi was riding a poor streak. His two 1981 films, Continental Divide and Neighbors, were bombs, as was his 1979 film, Steven Spielberg’s 1941. He saw modest success with 1980’s The Blues Brothers, which gained a cult following but hadn’t sold enough tickets to compensate for its out-of-control budget. His last true hit was Animal House, almost four years earlier, a lifetime in Hollywood. He was in danger of squandering his career, and his life choices were making that seem a likelier outcome than not, even to casual observers. During his stay at Chateau Marmont, he took a meeting at a Sunset Strip nightclub with a pair of studio executives who brought their wives along. After their parley, which was — as was becoming more common with Belushi — disjointed and unproductive, one of the women said to her husband that she was reminded of a classic Hollywood tale: Billy Wilder’s Sunset Boulevard. But that was a movie about a forgotten star, he replied; everyone knew Belushi. “Sunset Boulevard,” she repeated. “I’m telling you. We just saw it.”

    While Belushi was trashing his bungalow and himself, people around him were scheming to get him back to New York, where his wife, Judy, and his partner and best friend, Dan Aykroyd, felt they could help him get clean from drugs and resume working productively. Aykroyd could always bring out the best in Belushi; when he visited the Chateau during Belushi’s previous stay, the pair were seen on a lark, staging a mock sword fight in the lobby lounge, using 2-foot-long candles as weapons. Aykroyd was busily working on a script, titled Ghostbusters, for the two of them to make together with another SNL alumnus, Bill Murray. But even tracking Belushi down to have a chat was becoming impossible. He darted around erratically from nightclubs to people’s homes to restaurants to guitar shops to his favorite bathhouse to assignations with drug dealers, sometimes abandoning limousines he hired and driving off with some new acquaintance. When he was in the bungalow, he was often too addled to talk or answer the phone, or he was surrounded by clutches of sycophants and drug-world people and hangers-on and unable to have a serious conversation. He was a wreck, and he was spinning beyond the reach of anyone who could help him.

  23. The Original NJ ExPat says:

    BTW, I know why the hard left is all on board to give incarcerated convicts the vote:

    1. It will swing some rural districts where you have 500 farmers and a 3000 inmate prison. The (incarcerated) criminals become the largest voting block.
    2. The dem candidates will then be able to hold rallies at places like San Quentin State Prison and attract crowds larger than 200 people.

  24. Libturd, can't say I didn't warn you. says:

    Crap

    silly long winded response stuck in Mod. Grim, if you’re around. Por favor!

  25. ExEssex says:

    1:27 just think with the new law most of Trump’s cronies and cabinet members can vote….

  26. joyce says:

    Interesting post on medical industry regarding high costs and perverse incentives: (but nothing too different from what I’ve posted previously from this source regarding that subject)
    http://market-ticker.org/akcs-www?post=235657

  27. The Original NJ ExPat says:

    2020 is all about China, so it will rarely be mentioned.

  28. Fast Eddie says:

    It’s incredibly obvious that the Right is responsible for painting the Left as wannaba Venezuelan soc1alists.

    They long for it. They pine for it. Free everything for every misfit and outcast at the expense of the productive class.

    Trump didn’t get elected because Obama sucked. Trump got elected because Hillary sucked.

    False. Trump got elected because Hillary is the anti-Chr1st and Obama ignited class warfare.

  29. Fast Eddie says:

    Sanders will be 79 and Biden 78 on the date when the new presidential term begins. Good luck with the really old white guys who will promise everything and deliver nothing.

  30. Libturd, can't say I didn't warn you. says:

    I hope there are a lot more like you Gary or Trump will be in trouble. The turning point, IMO was when Kavanaugh and that douche bag questioning him threw a temper tantrum.

  31. leftwing says:

    “It’s incredibly obvious that the Right is responsible for painting the Left as wannaba Venezuelan soc1alists.” If the shoe fits, wear it.

    “Trump didn’t get elected because Obama sucked. Trump got elected because Hillary sucked.” Gee, don’t put up a flawed, unpopular candidate and don’t lose? Novel.

    “when compared to Trump, whose character can best be described as slightly better than John Belushi.” The fat part of the bell curve liked Belushi.

    “Where’s the motivation going to come from for right voters?”
    Off the top of my head…Flawed, unpopular candidate on the Left? Belushi on the Right? Supreme seat(s) up for grabs? Dems making the case for the Right to mobilize with their House investigations? The aforementioned high profile s0c1alists?

    “Short of death in office, when does an incumbent president not get re-elected? Ford(who was never elected in the first place), Carter, Bush I, none since.”
    All incredibly weak apologists. The p0lar opposite of this President (and the carbon copy of the Left’s ult1mate candidate).

  32. joyce says:

    In mid-August, the self-pay manager sent O’Neill a letter saying, “the remaining balance of $1,877.86” would be removed “as a one-time courtesy adjustment.”

    The manager added that the hospital hadn’t done anything wrong. The account was “correctly documented, coded, charged and billed according to industry standards,” she wrote.

    And that’s just the problem. The hospital’s $1,877 bill for the ear piercing was within industry standards.
    https://www.propublica.org/article/a-hospital-charged-to-pierce-ears-why-health-care-costs-so-much

  33. Libturd, can't say I didn't warn you. says:

    Left wing. Respect your opinions. But I think the left has NEVER been this riled up before. Can you think of a time besides after the Kent State shootings that one party marched on Washington every five minutes to show their disapproval of the other party?

  34. ExEssex says:

    I doubt anyone with an ounce of sense thinks the current administration is moving us in the right direction. But we’ll see soon enough.

  35. chicagofinance says:

    joyce:
    Here is the best example of being blindsided by an unexpected medical bill.
    https://nypost.com/2019/04/25/north-korea-sends-us-2-million-medical-bill-for-otto-warmbiers-care-report/

    joyce says:
    April 25, 2019 at 4:05 pm
    In mid-August, the self-pay manager sent O’Neill a letter saying, “the remaining balance of $1,877.86” would be removed “as a one-time courtesy adjustment.”

    The manager added that the hospital hadn’t done anything wrong. The account was “correctly documented, coded, charged and billed according to industry standards,” she wrote.

    And that’s just the problem. The hospital’s $1,877 bill for the ear piercing was within industry standards.

  36. leftwing says:

    Here’s a broad brush thesis/observation. Can find data points on either side of the argument to support or attack, but it kind of feels right…

    On the point of history repeating….These times feel very similar to the c. 1960-1972 period. The big picture similarities to me are actually somewhat amazing.

    Starting point of each period began with downturns, recessions of 57-58 and 60-61, and 2008.

    Followed by a period of juiced economic growth, Vietnam expenditures and easy money; ZIRP.

    There’s an atmosphere of general societal complacence with corporatism by the adult generation early on; meanwhile building discontent among youth and specifically on certain hot button issues as time progressed – s0cial justice, environment, race relations, drug use, etc.

    Full out abandonment by youth of parents’ ideals and corporatism toward the end of the period. “Turn on, tune in, drop out” and the gig and legal weed economy.

    Radical liberalism on campuses supported by instructors.

    A decade in a fractured nation elects a megalomaniacal paranoid candidate with serious historical baggage (Nixon ’68, Trump ’16). Each has high profile problematic personal failures in their respective fields. Both make populist inroads on the back of similar issues. Both are looking at impeachment for obstruction. Both made street cred internationally, including with China. Coincidences are startling between Nixon 68 and Trump 16.

    That puts us right now somewhere around 1969.

    Just need a repeat of:
    The Summer of Love this year (any coincidence it’s the 50th anniversary of Woodstock?)
    The Chicago convention (let’s go Red!)
    And the grassroots drafting by the Democrats of a radically liberal white guy and Party outsider from a minor electoral State (McGovern) driven by student support who tops a fractured ticket as there is no clear VP candidate because the leading established Party candidates shun him. Go Bernie!

    Crazy times. All we need is for Trump to trounce Bernie and some relative newcomer (Buttigieg?) in 2020, have a geopolitical oil shock in 2021, and Trump to resign in 2022 as a result of obstruction arising from the election and we will have come full circle from 1962-1974.

  37. leftwing says:

    “Left wing. Respect your opinions. But I think the left has NEVER been this riled up before. Can you think of a time besides after the Kent State shootings that one party marched on Washington every five minutes to show their disapproval of the other party?”

    LOL, see above.

    Add Kent State and BLM, with their associated marches, to the similarities.

    We are 1969.

  38. Fast Eddie says:

    I hope there are a lot more like you Gary or Trump will be in trouble.

    A dem gets elected, what’s the next step? What’s the plan? Higher taxes? Speeches on climate and equality? What’ll happen is that the productive class will, yet again, need to find ways to allude the slimy hands of the left. It’ll be the Oblammy administration all over again.

  39. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Like clockwork. It’s all starting again. Move to suburbs. I’m guessing millennials starting families has something to do with this. They can no longer have roommates, need to raise their coming/new family, and can’t afford to raise a family in the city.

    “But among the list of 10 fastest-growing metros, two central Florida cities’ citations underscored that this booming part of the country has become a snapshot of U.S. demographic and development trends. The first, Lakeland-Winter Haven, a more remote, exurban, and rural area of former citrus groves between Tampa and Orlando, represents a geographic shift. Despite urban growth, especially in mid-tier cities, suburban and even exurban growth has bounced back since the Great Recession.

    As the Brookings Institution noted, the south and western sections of the U.S. have ballooned with Snow Belt-to-Sun Belt population shifts, reflecting more suburbanization and expansion into rural areas. Lakeland-Winter Haven, a metro area that overlaps with the boundaries of Polk County, benefits from being an exceptionally affordable waystation in a growing megaregion, and the area saw its population grow 3.2 percent last year.”

    https://apple.news/A7GzV-j5mSda08SzOwk_Ccw

  40. ExEssex says:

    5:10 welp, the rule of law for elected officials may improve, the stupid trade wars would end, and we’d drain the fawking swamp.

  41. 30 year realtor says:

    Regarding my comment earlier…2 things are at play. Tenafly is getting hit by one and Franklin Lakes by both. SALT impacts every high tax town in the state. Demographic shift toward shorter commutes combined with SALT is dragging Franklin Lakes and high end of Wayne and Oakland down hard.

  42. ExEssex says:

    Trump enriched the .001% with his policies the tippy top got a little richer.
    Most others got shafted. No matter what happens a post-Trump AMERICA is a better place.

  43. Yo! says:

    Thank you 30. Wayne has a high end?

  44. AG says:

    Trump will win unless the economy turns.

    Just the way it is. I look forward to watching the entertaining shenanigans this election will bring. Probably the dirtiest since the American civil war.

    MAGA

  45. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Nope, it’s borderline ghetto.

    Don’t worry, if you think this love with cramped overpriced urban living will last, don’t say I didn’t tell you so. Space is a beautiful and a valuable thing. The buyers of the past 10 years might not think so, but it won’t last. Space is priceless. They will realize it. Towns that are safe, more of a nature feel, yet offer all the urban amenities are the place to be. Wayne checks that off perfectly. Just takes some time for the lemmings to realize what they really want.

    Yo! says:
    April 25, 2019 at 6:56 pm
    Thank you 30. Wayne has a high end?

  46. 3b says:

    Pumps now you are going completely over board Wayne does not have any urban amenities with the exception of Starbucks.

  47. Bystander says:

    The Giants are a sh^tshow and will remain so. Daniel Jones at 6? He would have been there at 16. Should have gone LB Josh Allen. Kid is a beat. Unreal

  48. Bystander says:

    So mad, I can’t type 17 or spell beast.

  49. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Giants definitely don’t draft on value anymore.

  50. Leftwing says:

    On obstruction of justice….

    BBC News – US judge charged with aiding undocumented immigrant in escape
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-48060187

  51. Juice Box says:

    NJREREPORT ORLANDO EDITION REPORTING IN -Watching draft poolside in Orlando, the building continues unabated
    Banco Brazil now carrying the paper. Margaritaville development, 4 seasons, million dollar homes in disney property, massive amount of mouth breathers here, and no chinese.

    Our place managed by a brazillian part of 2 dozen homes he manages.

    Look out below once the dam breaks..

  52. Fast Eddie says:

    Bystander,

    The kid even looks like Eli Manning. Let’s wait and see. The Giants didn’t have much luck the last time they drafted a QB out of Duke, I hope 2nd time’s a charm.

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