Most stable market in…forever?

From CNBC:

Housing-market distress is at its lowest in at least 20 years — can it hold? 

In the aftermath of the housing crisis, lenders and regulators clamped down hard to make sure we’d never have another bubble like the one that inflated in the middle of the last decade. 

That’s led to a borrowing environment that many housing-market observers describe as too pristine, one absent normal fluctuations. And many have warned that with delinquencies and other housing distress at long-time lows, it can only get worse from here.

Or can it?

In May, the “foreclosure inventory rate,” or the percentage of homes currently in any stage of the foreclosure process, was at its lowest in over 20 years — for the sixth month in a row. 

Overall delinquencies are also at the lowest since 1999, CoreLogic said, citing “a 50-year low in unemployment, rising home prices and responsible underwriting.”

Notably, that long-time low in all delinquencies comes alongside small local spikes in what’s called the “serious delinquency” rate, or loans that are more than 90 days past due. For example, one year past the massive California Camp Fire, serious delinquencies in the Chico, Calif., metro area jumped 21%.

That’s a small reminder of the housing market as it existed before the bubble inflated and then burst. All real estate is local, in part because natural disasters, microeconomies and municipal policies are particular to a region.

This entry was posted in Demographics, Economics, Employment, Foreclosures, National Real Estate. Bookmark the permalink.

98 Responses to Most stable market in…forever?

  1. dentss says:

    First

  2. dentss says:

    NYC blackout …..it must be Trump fault

  3. Bruiser says:

    Pant-up demand will save us

  4. Bystander says:

    Three open house weekends in a row and I have not seen even a little spark of activity at my neighbor’s house. Apparently they close on new house in two weeks. Must be nice to be able to carry two houses. Of course, my brother lost 40k carrying his for 10 months. No matter when bank of Mommy and Daddy helps float your lifestyle. I mean float too. He bought a boat earlier this year. They don’t lift a finger of manual work. Peapod, delivered dry cleaning, lawn care..I think he even bought $1200 snow blower but now someone clears driveway.

  5. Fast Eddie says:

    Bystander/Essex, et al.,

    Listen to this… it’s very Genesis like:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RPh6FFPpLoo

  6. 3b says:

    Bystander There was a buzz of activity by me earlier in the Spring. Now it’s dead. Interesting a lot of new listings coming on unusual for middle of summer. Maybe school thing does not count as much any more. Interesting too quite a few listings coming on that sold a few years ago. Either they are looking for massive increase from what they paid or just trying to get what they paid for it minus broker commission.

  7. Blue Ribbon Teacher says:

    NYC blackout …..it must be Trump fault

    I got stuck in NYC in the blackout of 2003. I was at the Lincoln Tunnel and getting bloodwork done. All of the sudden, all the traffic lights go out and on the radio they announce a city wide blackout. My mom insisted I don’t go through the tunnel and turn back around to get my sister in Greenwich village. About 30 min later, it’s impossible to get anywhere as crowds of people are crossing the streets and there was not a single cop in sight. They were all deployed to specific locations in the event of a terrorist attack.

    Btw…the idea that New Yorkers come together in a time of need was bull crap on that day. I never saw so many people acting like complete aholes to each other. 6 hours later, I’m finally to the Holland Tunnel but traffic is at a standstill. Because I had to fast, I still hadn’t eaten anything for 24 hours and was on the verge of passing out. So I get out of the car and go to the street vendor. He says all he has left is sausage and pita bread. I said do it up. Nothing ever tasted so good in my life. My good deed for the day was allowing a guy to hitch a ride through the tunnel with me and I dropped him off on the other side.

  8. WickedOrange says:

    https://www.yahoo.com/news/jersey-cop-overdosed-heroin-patrol-130155969.html

    best comment:
    “Meanwhile the taxpayers are on the hook for TWO retirements for this guy.”

  9. Juice Box says:

    re: 2003 outage. Yup 50 million people in eight states and Canada. There was a Software bug in General Electric Energy’s Unix-based XA/21 (EMS) Energy Management System, it was unable to handle the accumulation of events that had queued up and failed to alert the operators of the overload. Same system still in use today all over the grid.

  10. Juice Box says:

    Heat wave coming to NYC area and the Governor wants to start a war, does he realize that all these Con Ed union workers love the overtime generated by power outages?

    “In a series of TV and radio interviews, Cuomo blasted Con Ed’s performance following Saturday’s outage and threatened to revoke its state-issued operating license.

    “Con Ed does not have a franchise granted by God — you can look through the Bible,” the governor told WCBS radio.”

    “We’re getting to the point where Con Ed is going to have to deliver or we’re going to have to find a different delivery mechanism.

    “They can be replaced,” he added.

  11. Bruiser says:

    Con Ed is better than most. Cuomo would realize that if he ever left his bubble and earned an honest living elsewhere for once in his life. Maybe JCP&L can take over; if you cut a loud phart the power goes out for 50,000 customers.

  12. Bystander says:

    3b,

    My neighbors will lose a bundle. They are priced aggressively, almost same as 2014 purchase price at 900k. Numerous improvements like 15k vinyl fence, 3k sprinkler, finished basement, landscaping. Place was brand new in 2014. They will lose 100k easy. Chump change apparently.

  13. Bystander says:

    Oops, they just cut 10k this morning. Did I say 100k loss?

  14. Mächïne says:

    9:36! Yeah if Genesis has The Ox on bass • Nice!

  15. Libturd, seen crazy things done with ping pong balls. says:

    In 2003 outage, I left office at 7pm. Somehow found a cab on Hudson St and Varick. Got word that NJ Transit was running from Penn. As we drove slowly up Hudson (all signals out) about 10 different people offered to buy out my cab. Got off at Penn and it must have been 110 degrees down there and pretty dimly lit. Waited about an hour but train finally left but only went as far as Newark Broad. Went to catch 28 bus which would get me close enough to walk the final 20 minutes and didn’t have exact change. The effin driver said they weren’t cross honoring rail passes, which was wrong. I refused to get off the bus and eventually found change from others on the bus. Gator picked me up once I was close to home. Power is one of those things we take for granted. In most countries, outages occur fairly frequently. Even in Costa Rica.

    BTW, was eating dinner in Friedman’s at Edison at 5pm after watching Frozen on Broadway on Saturday. We got out of the city just in time apparently. Excellent Cobb salad.

  16. 3b says:

    Bystander There is a listing in my town that closed a month ago at 500k back on the market one month later at 550k. Perhaps a job relocation,never seen that before.

  17. Blue Ribbon Teacher says:

    Was in Point Pleasant the other day. Got a spot within a block from the beach. Out of 24 homes on that block, six were for sale. Last time I saw that at the shore, it was 2006.

  18. Machine says:

    We wuz driving back from the MI Great Lakes area when the last blackout hit.
    Rode the whole thing out with a two-year -old in a Days Inn somewhere in BFE.
    Infrastructure? Is that still a thing?

  19. Machine says:

    11:51 If I was in the position I’d sell this crap shack in the West and move into a NomPound somewhere in the Carolina Hills. Something tells me the whole house of cards is coming down. (again) I’d hate to say it but we are due. The place down the street from me sold in 2 days at the ask. Granted it’s CA, but it aint no bargain.

  20. chicagofinance says:

    A nice day at Pump’s Ping Pong Village and Family Fun Rides:
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iyyM88WmGyI

  21. chicagofinance says:

    WickedOrange says:
    July 15, 2019 at 9:56 am
    https://www.yahoo.com/news/jersey-cop-overdosed-heroin-patrol-130155969.html

    best comment:
    “Meanwhile the taxpayers are on the hook for TWO retirements for this guy.”

    What about?
    The Police Mantra is ‘Serve and Protect’, not Serve and Inject.

  22. Juice Box says:

    Re: Point Pleasant

    Trying to get oit before the tide comes in

  23. leftwing says:

    LOL chi, I was going to post the same quote. Priceless.

    “determined that Ellery was experiencing an opiate overdose because he was cyanotic, had no carotid pulse, and was not breathing. The officer removed Ellery from the vehicle and administered two doses of Naloxone to revive him.”

    Naloxone should be illegal. Problems solved.

  24. Tastes differ.

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  25. Libturd, seen crazy things done with ping pong balls. says:

    I was down in Point Pleasant on Sunday morning. I can’t believe two things. First, how huge the beach is now. Two, how the homeowners of the 1st home connected to the beach have put fences around their dunes and are building on them. All kinds of fancy outdoor kitchens, decks, etc. Aren’t all taxpayers paying for the beach restoration? Additionally, I thought the dunes were best left to nature to regrow plants that hold the sand in place? What an utter waste of time and money this dredging is.

  26. grim says:

    Dredging and building beaches is ecological terrorism. I don’t know why anyone assumes this is OK.

    Let the ocean take it all, we’d be better off.

  27. leftwing says:

    Carter Ave area Lib?

  28. The Great Pumpkin says:

    I’ve been saying this for a while, but this time is different. It’s unbelievable how human nature hasn’t taken over and created bubbles. Guess 2008 was so bad, it really changed how people chase investments. How can the housing market and equity market be this sane for this long? Have to start questioning if this time is different…

    Bitcoin has been the only bubble and maybe that’s because it was a “new” investment option.. so people were not treating it with caution like they have been with stocks and housing. Just a thought.

    “Most stable market ever”

  29. Bystander says:

    Blumpy probably also asks how those marionettes dance around the stage so magically.

  30. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Bystander,

    I see no euphoria in the housing market or stock market. Only see cautious individuals who think they are buying at the top for the past 2 years. How can you bust if you never push the price to overbought territory? Any pull back is immediately bought up in this cycle, and that’s all I need to know…

  31. 3b says:

    Housing market propped up by low rates. If that changes and it will at some point. Meanwhile the demographics for the 4 bed 2 bath colonial continues to be negative.

  32. Juice Box says:

    re: Point Peasant. Beach was replenished beginning in April. Storm came 2nd week of May and washed part of it away. Army Corps came back and replenished the same stretch two weeks ago, they found a few million somewhere to do it.

    https://www.dredgingtoday.com/2019/06/26/more-sand-for-point-pleasant-beach/

  33. The Great Pumpkin says:

    3b,

    Low rates are prob the new norm. Also understand that housing supply has not met demand for some time now. Even if they started to rapidly build, they still wouldn’t meet demand due to how long they have neglected supply. That’s a real problem for people expecting price drops in real estate.

  34. Blue Ribbon Teacher says:

    I was down in Point Pleasant on Sunday morning. I can’t believe two things. First, how huge the beach is now. Two, how the homeowners of the 1st home connected to the beach have put fences around their dunes and are building on them. All kinds of fancy outdoor kitchens, decks, etc. Aren’t all taxpayers paying for the beach restoration? Additionally, I thought the dunes were best left to nature to regrow plants that hold the sand in place? What an utter waste of time and money this dredging is.

    I asked my friend who lives in town there, he said that in order to get a bunch of money, they had to accept the Dunes being installed. This is all nonsense at the state level. They raised the grade at that beach a good 2.5 feet and the sand is now a few inches from the boardwalk. It just looks strange.

  35. Blue Ribbon Teacher says:

    Naloxone should be illegal. Problems solved.

    I know an EMT in Trenton. He’s had to administer this to the same people on multiple occasions in a day. He says it’s awful because they wake up and get pissed at you because you killed their high. His buddy gets sick of it because they have to give the people oxygen to keep them afloat when they are passed out and when they wake up, they start acting like a*holes. Every time they do, he pulls the oxygen and they pass out again.

  36. leftwing says:

    “Housing market propped up by low rates.”

    Stock market propped up by low rates.ll

  37. leftwing says:

    “I know an EMT in Trenton. He’s had to administer this to the same people on multiple occasions in a day.”

    The universe is one large probability distribution. One can debate the actual distribution and skew, but the data set is for all practical purposes over history is n^infinity.

    There are well defined tails for the upper and lower ends. Always has been, always will be. Nothing will change it. Let alone Naloxone, lol.

  38. Libturd, seen crazy things done with ping pong balls. says:

    Left.

    Maryland beach access point is where we were. Way down the south border.

  39. Libturd, seen crazy things done with ping pong balls. says:

    What do you guys think of the Unison loan?

    https://www.mymoneyblog.com/wordpress/wp-content/uploads/2019/07/unison2_1024.gif

    Our lawsuit is being dragged out (intentionally by our school system to try and bankrupt us) so we are paying for this private school out of pocket at about 90K per year after insurance. Right now, I still have 50K left in the kitty, but I may need to find another 50K before the case is settled and we are reimbursed and then some. Our chances of losing are next to none. I can’t say why, but they pretty much handed us the smoking gun multiple times. The person who is paid 160K a year to manage the special services is entirely incompetent and an arrogant a-hole. Long before the lawsuit, I shared my opinion of him with the town superintendent and how he was costing the taxpayers millions due to his lack of care and supervision.

  40. Not a CFA says:

    CLOs are a potential problem and some believe there will be a domino effect when enough of them head south.

    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-07-16/a-leveraged-loan-collapses-and-reveals-key-risk-in-credit-market?srnd=premium

  41. No One says:

    Fast Eddie,
    From yesterday, based on the music I like, I should like Spock’s Beard, but I just don’t. The lead singer’s voice annoys me personally and made me turn off the sound immediately, after the more promising intro. It’s the voice of a 1980s hair rock band. Also something about digitized keyboards bug me. It’s probably the reason that now I can listen to King Crimson and Yes from the early 70s, but much of ELP sounds dated because back then ELP paid more for Moog synthesizers (that sounded futuristic then, but dated now). Mellotrons and the analog instruments have held up better in terms of their recorded sound over the decades.
    Ever heard Larks’ Tongue in Aspic, an instrumental track from King Crimson?
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CVb2tnFN5AA

  42. Fast Eddie says:

    No One,

    Right now, I have Tremonti blasting in my ears as I troubleshoot an HPC configuration issue. I’ll check out your link in a bit. Anything heavy and melodic is what I need right now. Pass it along!

  43. leftwing says:

    Lib, like the Unison as long as I’m the seller of the option, ie, I’d want to lend money to the homeowner. As the usual caveats, and the big obvious one, which is that future value can be manipulated with malice or not by the homeowner. In the most generous scenario, I think there won’t me many kitchen and bathroom updates, driveway maintenance, etc if the homeowner believes he may be mobile in a few years.

    Knew you were that far South. Had relatives on Carter, we had a house on Beacon (not oceanfront). I remember when that area got developed…from memory there was the Mafia house (nothing shore about it, straight out of NNJ Soprano casting) and the ‘Ark’ (not the restaurant, but the inverted house).

    Nice beaches. ECA (Elizabeth Carter Association) strangles out of towner access even with the newly permissible parking on the street. Keeps the crowds down and the beaches populated by residents and reasonable day trippers.

  44. leftwing says:

    Here’s a thought. Put it in the tinfoil hat or evolutionary file, but not the circular file….

    When was the last time all of DJT, Pelosi, Powell, both aisles of each chamber, and the heads of international state banks all in agreement on one topic? Nearly all on the same point? Nearly immediately?

    Way, way too much noise around Libra….much more than is warranted for privacy, KYC, and AML concerns.

    Powell actually stated multiple times in his testimony that it was imperative the dollar remain the world’s reserve currency…

    Perked my ears a bit, all the consensus, rush, and the frank honesty especially from the Fed Chief.

    If we lose reserve currency status not good for the house of cards…without the ability to print our way out of debt we become nothing more than, well, Italy, Spain, or Cyprus….

    No state actor can challenge the dollar status – we can project our power with too many armaments and troops. A non-state, populist actor unseating the dollar? Who do you threaten to bomb?

    Black Swan stuff, but not piercing the paranoia veil. I truly haven’t seen this level of coordination among the aforementioned national and international participants since, well, likely 1939. Or maybe 2008.

    From memory, neither was a good year. Nor ushered in a good time.

  45. Machine says:

    11:43 I always loved this band. Throwback time:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qj9N0VO6UjE

  46. leftwing says:

    ^^^Nice pull. Reason I kept a CD collection until Spotify was actually caught up.

    “King of the Dollar” is a personal fave.

  47. Libturd, seen crazy things done with ping pong balls. says:

    School of Fish was big when I was in college. I have the CD too.

    left. Noticed the same coordination against Libra too. I think Libra is brilliant and due. If Facebook doesn’t put it out, then who? Someone WILL create a world currency. It’s only a matter of time. Might as well have and American company do it. At least to capture the taxes on the revenue.

  48. Tuesday Lunchtime says:

    Is about control. Facebook’s Libra gives partial control to Zuckenberg, and who wants that little nerd tr0ll in control of anything.

    With the USD control rest with the Fed Reserve and Banksters.

    The issue with bitcoin are heart is not control. That is what makes it good. The issue is that the same thing makes it uncontrollable makes is unfriendly for financial transactions in the business world.

    Bitcoin can only process about 5 transactions a second and getting worse because the blockchain ledger updating mechanism exponential increasing complexity. Visa/Mastercard can each process over 25,000 transactions in a second.

  49. Walking bye says:

    Left wing, the last time someone challenged the reserve currency we went to war. In year 2000 Sadam changed from us $ oil sales to euros . By 2003 Iraq was back trading oil in US dollars. I believe Libya tried to sell oil for gold. That did not go well fir them as well. But it’s tinfoil hat stuff we will never know if petrodollar warfare is real or not.

  50. leftwing says:

    Other item as well Lib is the Fed’s manic focus on raising rates.

    During the time they are contorting themselves to get rates up we were – are – in economic nirvana. Under any measure including the Fed’s own the economy simply does not get any better. Stable and high growth. Stable and low inflation. At or through full employment. Stable wage growth.

    At any other point in history in that scenario you simply quietly leave the room so as to not fcuk anything up.

    Yet our guys were pounding the tables to raise rates. Under the guise of putting some bullets in the gun for the next ‘inevitable’ downturn which never made any sense.

    People don’t act irrationally. If you observe irrational behavior there are two possible explanations. Either you apply good logic but don’t have all the facts. Or you have all the facts but your logic is wrong.

    I’ve had this nagging feeling even before the ‘challenge’ of some still conceptual ‘currency’ that our government is scared absolutely sh1tless of the amount of private and public debt being carried. Much more than they let on. And, by extension, that we are in the middle of a massive asset bubble we don’t realize and they can’t control.

    IDK. I do know this…my logic is pretty solid so I’m trying to reconcile why when the economy is operating for an extended period at the 99.9 percentile of exactly where one wants it to be the smartest, most self interested guys around all are unilaterally focused on raising rates.

    What am I missing?

  51. leftwing says:

    “In year 2000 Sadam changed from us $ oil sales to euros . By 2003 Iraq was back trading oil in US dollars. I believe Libya tried to sell oil for gold. That did not go well fir them as well.”

    State actors feel our power.

    How do we respond against a non-domiciled, non-state actor operating in a consortium with assets in ether?

    I’m with Lib…gonna happen, one way or another

  52. No One says:

    Fast Eddie,
    How do you listen, do you have music streaming membership on Spotify, Amazon?

  53. Libturd, seen crazy things done with ping pong balls. says:

    “I’m with Lib…gonna happen, one way or another”

    China!

    As for raising rates. Not doing it now is akin to Whitman not making the pension payments since the market was doing better than expected and creating a surplus. The expected return, of course, is based on averages. Not just the bad and mediocre times. When this economic euphoria ends (and it will), you are going to need a bigger gun than last time. Yeah, I know, the market alchemists are now saying, why fix it if ain’t broke. Only what their hiding is, is that it is still broke.

    In other news, was in Costco yesterday. There are now six self serve checkout lines, like in Walmart. Good thing the few that remain will get a $3 raise. As for the rest? You’ve been kiosk-ed out of a job.

  54. No One says:

    “Someone WILL create a world currency.”
    This has been done before, and lasted hundreds of years before government central bankers rejected it as encroaching on their ability to manipulate their economies for the benefit of favored parties. That world currency was called gold. Under gold, sovereign states could indeed go broke when they overextended their promises and didn’t have the gold to back it up, and couldn’t just print it or create it in an electronic ledger.
    Central bankers dominate the thinking of the economic profession, so they are incredibly hostile to gold, call it the “golden shackles” on their arbitrary power over the people (because central bankers think they are the chosen ones always to be thanked for their economic genius, and never to blame for their mistakes).
    For the same reason, central bankers will forever be hostile to any serious encroachment of cryptocurrency over their ability to control. I’m not necessarily a fan of any cryptocurrencies that have been introduced, but I’m fairly confident that any globally successful one would be treated as an enemy of the central bankers who live to manipulate their own fiat money (allegedly for the good of the people).

  55. No One says:

    Libturd,
    Costco employees get paid way over the federal minimum wage already, but with the minimum wage rising they probably wanted to get ahead of regional and national trends by moving up to $15 now. Shareholders in the past have complained about employee pay generosity for years, it’s the one thing Costco isn’t particularly cheap about relative to their industry. I hope this is also about improving levels of service, allowing all their lines to be open even if they don’t have full staff.
    I hope they create a self-checkout line for 5 items or less. It sucks to go in to a Costco on weekends to buy one or two things and have to wait in line 10 minutes behind carts piled high.

  56. Mächïne says:

    LOS ANGELES, CA — Authorities this week arrested nearly two dozen people in a massive organized crime case, alleging MS-13 gang members have been terrorizing the Los Angeles region with a series of grisly slayings. The indictments announced Tuesday allege members of the gang’s San Fernando Valley stronghold committed seven murders, sometimes involving torture and dismemberment in the hills around Malibu and the Angeles National Forest.

    The murders —frequently carried out with with machetes, knives and baseball bats — often targeted people gang leaders suspected of cooperating with authorities, federal prosecutors allege. In one case, the defendants allegedly targeted a homeless man who was temporarily living in a park controlled by the gang.

    “We have now taken off the streets nearly two dozen people associated with the most violent arm of MS-13 in Los Angeles, where the gang is believed to have killed 24 people over the past two years,” said United States Attorney Nick Hanna. “This investigation has been an unqualified success. The collaborative law enforcement effort solved several murder cases and dealt a severe blow to members of the gang who engaged in acts of brutality not seen in the region for over 20 years.”

    Subscribe

    An alleged MS-13 gang member flashes a sign. Photo courtesy of the DOJ
    The arrests were the culmination of an investigation by the Los Angeles Metropolitan Task Force on Violent Gangs, which includes the FBI, Los Angeles Police Department and Los Angeles County Sheriff’s Department. Three people named in the indictment were arrested over the past few days in the Los Angeles area, according to the U.S. Attorney’s Office. A fourth defendant was arrested over the weekend in Oakland. The other 18 defendants were arrested over the past year, including some who were taken into custody on state and federal charges.

    “Taking violent offenders off the street should send a message to MS-13 members and their associates that medieval-style violence and senseless murder will not be tolerated in Los Angeles,” said Paul Delacourt, the Assistant Director in Charge of the FBI’s Los Angeles Field Office. “Working with our local partners, we expect to impact MS-13’s influence in gang-occupied communities.”

    An alleged MS-13 gang member flashes a sign. Photo courtesy of the DOJ
    According to the U.S. Attorney’s Office, the indictment specifically targeted a San Fernando Valley-area clique of the gang. Authorities said one of the killings outlined in the indictment occurred on March 6, 2017, when a rival gang member was abducted and driven to a remote portion of the Angeles National Forest, where six people attacked him with a machete.

    “The victim was dismembered, and his body parts were thrown into a canyon after one of the defendants allegedly cut the heart out of the victim’s body,” according to federal prosecutors.

    The bulk of the crimes alleged in the indictment, including the seven killings, began in 2017 and continued into this year. The charges include murders carried out with machetes, knives and baseball bats, all committed in the Angeles National Forest. The indictment also outlines killings in the Malibu hills and North Hollywood.

  57. No One says:

    Re Friedman’s at the Edison
    Libturd,
    Here’s a cranky review that laments the improved food and service of Friedmans, which apparently replaced a restaurant with crappy food and service but had a more appealing dirtbag “character”.
    The restaurant chain is named after economist Milton Friedman, surprisingly.
    http://vanishingnewyork.blogspot.com/2017/11/friedmans-at-edison.html

  58. Tuesday Lunch says:

    Leftwing,

    Your fears are true, but a bit off. What the powers that be are truly scared off is not the debt. You saw a glimpse during the financial crisis, is if people realize how subjective and therefore malleable to vested interests the system is.

    Nothing, nothing explains it better than this genius SouthPark bit. https://youtu.be/wz-PtEJEaqY

    I’ve had this nagging feeling even before the ‘challenge’ of some still conceptual ‘currency’ that our government is scared absolutely sh1tless of the amount of private and public debt being carried. Much more than they let on. And, by extension, that we are in the middle of a massive asset bubble we don’t realize and they can’t control.

    IDK. I do know this…my logic is pretty solid so I’m trying to reconcile why when the economy is operating for an extended period at the 99.9 percentile of exactly where one wants it to be the smartest, most self interested guys around all are unilaterally focused on raising rates.

  59. Fast Eddie says:

    No One,

    Fast Eddie,
    How do you listen, do you have music streaming membership on Spotify, Amazon?

    Youtube. One album after another.

  60. Walking bye says:

    China is a dilemma to us reserve currency. A couple of real carrier groups and they would be on their way. We are fortunate to be living easy of the hard work of China. At least that’s what my South American friend told me as he grew up eating chicken bones for dinner.

  61. Bystander says:

    Here you go Ed. Drummer from Tool, his side band Volto. Prog fusion but musicaaly tight.

    https://youtu.be/C_D_Ds6pWTg

  62. Tuesday Lunch says:

    Walking Bye,

    Latin America is a basket case because of multiple cultural reasons.

    Below is a link to Ecuador former progressive President Correa in a conference in 2014 at University of Costa Rica. Sorry is in spanish. But the next five minutes are golden.

    But he talks a lot about the “let’s not learn” ” leave it alone” “teams we don’t need teams” “is never our fault” cultural issues of latin america and when there is a problem go throw rocks at the US Embassy.

    https://youtu.be/9-w8XB-t-mQ?t=4748

  63. Blue Ribbon Teacher says:

    Here you go Ed. Drummer from Tool, his side band Volto. Prog fusion but musicaaly tight.

    Saw Tool live a bunch of times. The entire band is on point. Danny Carey is an amazing drummer.

  64. Reinvestor101 says:

    I just made my damn money back after almost getting my azz handed to me back in 2008. I held on and finally sold my damn house for big money and I immediately went back to flipping like I lost my damn mind. They CAN NOT increase interest rates. Trump will make damn sure those idiots at the Fed keep the damn rates at the rock damn bottom. I see a couple of damn real estate terrorists here that I need to deal with.

    We finally have a damn president who knows what the hell he’s doing. The damn liberals WILL NOT ruin this real estate market.

  65. The Great Pumpkin says:

    “I don’t know why the hell you would want to pipe wa­ter out of the desert,” said Kirby Warnock, 67, whose fam­ily has owned a ranch near the Williams farm for nearly a cen­tury. “It’s like space shut­tle as­tro­nauts sell­ing their oxy­gen. It bog­gles my mind.”

    https://www.wsj.com/articles/neighbors-face-off-over-texas-other-lucrative-resource-water-11563286812?emailToken=47d559ca346575742e86c7d18323a89fEaAGnkfhqdjhBeWCCWNq1Qwip4dVPU0hZ+NXWEB7Mj7ohWfK5Mg12gQJoUy0Ff2BYqnMMA9+paoXElRSqz5RmssqDND8aOyMqIK33DQf7A+K/qpUbkTcr0HfkFHztT8v&reflink=article_copyURL_share

  66. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Good for you…nice comeback!

    Reinvestor101 says:
    July 16, 2019 at 5:48 pm
    I just made my damn money back after almost getting my azz handed to me back in 2008. I held on and finally sold my damn house for big money and I immediately went back to flipping like I lost my damn mind.

  67. Mächïne says:

    Americans are flocking to the suburbs.
    A recent study by the US Census Bureau shows that suburbs in the South and West are growing in popularity and price.
    Business Insider teamed up with Zillow to take a look at the top 25 US suburbs where median home values have grown the most from May 2014 to May 2019.
    Visit Business Insider’s homepage for more stories.
    City-dwellers are ditching the hustle and bustle of city life and moving to the suburbs in search of affordable housing, more space, and quieter streets.

    The suburbs seeing the most growth are located in the southern and western regions of the US. According to a recent study by the US Census Bureau, counties in the South and West saw more people move in than move out between July 1, 2017, and July 1, 2018. Just consider Florida, which welcomed about 566,000 new residents in 2017 and saw a 4.7% year-over-year home value increase to $233,2oo in 2019.

    Read more: The 25 US cities where rent is increasing the fastest, ranked

    Rising home values in Florida put their prices on par with the current US median home value, which has increased 5.4% over the past year to $226,800.

    Business Insider teamed up with Zillow to find the 25 suburbs where median home values have grown the most from May 2014 to May 2019. Of those listed, 12 are located in Florida and three are in Georgia.

  68. The Great Pumpkin says:

    I took a lot of heat for stating the suburbs would not die….

    What 3b doesn’t realize is that the new suburbs are for the poor. People that want to raise a family in a home as opposed to an apartment. Only problem, these are target workers. That’s on the national level.

    At local state level, northern nj suburbs are really cities for people with money that choose to commute for a backyard, bigger living space, and peace and quiet. The closer to the city, the higher up on the food chain you go in this type of setting…your Montclair, short hills, ridge woods,…all within close distance to nyc, yet far enough to offer privacy.

  69. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Poor in northern nj are still thrown into urban hells. Inhumane, but effective.

  70. WednesdayPumpkin NoiseBlockerOn says:

    Anybody seen Biden trouting a better ObamaCare. Well that’s a corporate democrat for you.

    Here is Medicare Advantage plan which insurance companies have rigged and are ripping off.

    https://www.npr.org/sections/health-shots/2019/07/16/740964958/records-show-medicare-advantage-plans-overbill-taxpayers-by-billions-annually

    Health insurers that treat millions of seniors have overcharged Medicare by nearly $30 billion over the past three years alone, but federal officials say they are moving ahead with long-delayed plans to recoup at least part of the money.

    Officials have known for years that some Medicare Advantage plans overbill the government by exaggerating how sick their patients are or by charging Medicare for treating serious medical conditions they cannot prove their patients have.

    Getting refunds from the health plans has proved daunting, however. Officials with the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services repeatedly have postponed or backed off efforts to crack down on billing abuses and mistakes by the increasingly popular Medicare Advantage health plans offered by private health insurers under contract with Medicare. Today, such plans treat more than 22 million seniors — more than 1 in 3 people on Medicare.

  71. WednesdayPumpkin NoiseBlockerOn says:

    And this one,

    https://www.nbcnews.com/news/military/why-are-many-america-s-military-families-going-hungry-n1028886

    SAN DIEGO — Dozens of people formed a line outside Dewey Elementary School on a recent Monday, awaiting the arrival of a Feeding San Diego truck that gives out free groceries every other week.

    The vast majority weren’t homeless or even newly unemployed. They’re the husbands and wives of U.S. military service members.

    “I knew we wouldn’t be wealthy, but I thought it would be a lot more manageable,” said Desiree Mieir, a mother of four whose Navy husband’s most recent deployment lasted almost eight months.

    All nicely brought to you by Clinton democratic sell out, lets contract out to pay to play donors. Whether war profiteering or healthcare scam profiteering. You can always count on the corporate democrats to aid and abet the free market ideological crooks that just want a nice piece of the tax payers’ dime.

    Anybody but Biden, Harris or The mayor from IN in 2020, otherwise Trump 4 more years.

  72. Age…is a matter of feeling, not of years.

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  73. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Stop wasting our money on this bs, go work on creating jobs as opposed to a circus. Get over trump already, it’s been almost 4 years for Christ sake. The country is actually better off today under him, the sky didn’t fall, so let it go..

    House Passes Resolution Condemning Trump Tweets as Racist

    https://apple.news/AYtnJhEmSSeyuSEZmmiojqA

  74. Libturd, seen crazy things done with ping pong balls. says:

    Joyce,

    I just renewed my registration and noticed it. There is not a tax or fee that Murphy will not increase. Worst governor ever.

  75. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Ocasio-Cortez gets new 2020 challenger: a Republican immigrant from Jamaica

    https://apple.news/A5E9mzb9GSvybiaUhYrRfmw

  76. Fast Eddie says:

    Bystander,

    Thanks for that link! Nice! Wow!

    Some Jeff Beck feel in those chord changes and leads.

  77. JCer says:

    Murphy makes one miss Christie, a hard thought to have……
    Fees and taxes are the only tools he knows, if anything they should charge a fee for going to the MVC, technology is largely rendering it unnecessary. If it were a corporate entity much of the personnel would have been shipped offshore(not a good thing but a reality), facilities footprints reduced, hours cut and almost every function would have been shifted online. Alas it’s the government and they know how to run nothing inexpensively.

  78. Juice Box says:

    re: AOC Republican challenger. It’s just starting to get good now for 2020.

    The lastest kerfluffle on the floor of the house was just a warning shot between the warring Democrats now. The congressional black caucus is angry at the “Justice Democrats” ( people that got AOC in office) since they are now targeting to primary several black democrats in 2020. AOC fingers Pelosi and other democrats as wacist. All kinds of infighting and zero work getting done since well everyone is a wacist!

  79. Libturd, seen crazy things done with ping pong balls. says:
  80. No One says:

    A rare excellent news story from the NY Times about why there has been such an influx of homeless addicts to NYC. Short answer- NYC taxpayers pay for them to come here, via more generous public welfare and support spending. Or to keep it simple – pigeons flock to where people throw the most birdseed.

    https://www.nytimes.com/2019/07/16/nyregion/nyc-port-authority-opioids.html

  81. Libturd, seen crazy things done with ping pong balls. says:

    Ummm,

    San Francisco same thing. No?

  82. joyce says:

    JCer,
    There shouldn’t be much to offshore if they upgraded their systems and processes; plus, they’d have to maintain some physical locations. It’s the fact that downsizing in the government sector is never considered. When the two Princeton’s merged, the results were evaluated a couple of years later… very little savings. Of course since they didn’t let anyone go.

  83. Juice Box says:

    San Fran nope – homeless are “sheltered” at much higher numbers in NYC and in San Fran for decades there has big time NIMBY as their limousine liberals do no not want housing for homeless in their neighborhoods. NYC simply has way more housing, there are more homeless per square mile in NYC but they aren’t sleeping in the streets as much.

  84. Libturd, seen crazy things done with ping pong balls. says:

    Thanks Juice.

  85. chicagofinance says:

    It is behind a paywall, can you post the entire article? Thank you in advance.

    No One says:
    July 17, 2019 at 10:08 am
    A rare excellent news story from the NY Times about why there has been such an influx of homeless addicts to NYC. Short answer- NYC taxpayers pay for them to come here, via more generous public welfare and support spending. Or to keep it simple – pigeons flock to where people throw the most birdseed.

    https://www.nytimes.com/2019/07/16/nyregion/nyc-port-authority-opioids.html

  86. Nomad says:

    Ex Pat,

    Going out on a limb thinking you won’t be buying any of these. Someone should have Put a TM on it. Could have made a few bucks hocking T-shirt’s, coffee mugs and the like.

    https://www.marketwatch.com/story/now-you-can-buy-a-25-squad-t-shirt-to-support-aoc-and-other-liberal-congresswomen-sparring-with-trump-2019-07-17?mod=mw_theo_homepage

  87. Libturd, seen crazy things done with ping pong balls. says:

    Trump. Is he really that dumb? What’s next? Kill them all, let God sort ’em out? It wouldn’t surprise me at all.

  88. Success PumpkinDissapearedToday says:

    Regardless all the hoopla written here. Medicare For All M4A, will decide the elections.
    Whoever puts it out first wins. Look at Sanders shaming away all the sell out with his proposal

    This from the WSJ, copy pasted because of wall

    Arizona Suburbs Show the Opportunities, Risks of Health Care as Political Issue – The Wall Street Journal

    https://www.wsj.com/articles/arizona-suburbs-show-the-opportunities-risks-of-health-care-as-political-issue-11559467801
    Caitlin O’Hara for The Wall Street Journal
    By
    Stephanie Armour
    Stephanie Armour
    The Wall Street Journal
    Biography
    @stepharmour1
    Stephanie.Armour@wsj.com
    Updated June 2, 2019 7:01 pm ET

    GILBERT, Ariz.—April Gould helps run a thriving business where customers take yoga classes alongside dozens of baby goats, but she said she can’t afford health insurance.

    “Health care in this country is a mess,” said Ms. Gould, 41 years old, who says she leans Republican. “We should get rid of the insurance game and make it one cost for everyone.

    “Like Canada,” she says, before adding, “But that’s expensive.”

    Arizona reflects the challenge that will confront both parties in the 2020 election. Health care looms so large that many independent and suburban voters in swing states may back candidates based on plans to fix the system, rather than based on their usual party affiliation.

    Already, in some states such as Arizona, many of these voters, who had previously backed Republicans, went instead for Democrats in the 2018 midterms. One major reason: health care.

    Democratic Sen. Kyrsten Sinema made health coverage a central part of her platform in the midterms and won in a tight race against Republican Sen. Martha McSally, who was later appointed to the seat left vacant after the death of Republican John McCain.

    The victory marked the first time since 1988 that Arizona elected a Democrat to the Senate. Health care was among the top three issues voters said were the most important in the race, according to a September poll by Suffolk University and the Arizona Republic.

    Republicans don’t want a replay next year. Arizona has seen gains under the Affordable Care Act. The number of uninsured individuals fell by 34% between 2010 and 2015, and about 400,000 people obtained coverage under the state’s expansion of Medicaid.

    But like many other traditionally Republican states, Arizona is hurting for other reasons. Three rural hospitals in the state have closed since 2010, part of an ominous, nationwide trend driven in part by too few patients, Medicare payment reductions and the refusal by many GOP-led state governments to expand Medicaid, the federal and state program that provides coverage to those with low income and the disabled.

    Share Your Thoughts
    Would you cross party lines to choose a candidate because of their position on health care? Join the conversation below.

    President Trump in 2017 called out Arizona’s 116% hike in health-insurance premiums as an example of why the ACA should be repealed, although those premiums have stabilized or fallen since. Still, insurance costs continue to vex residents of the state. Low-income consumers in Arizona get subsidies on the ACA’s insurance exchanges and are thus protected by any increases. But those who earn too much to get such help feel squeezed.

    Steve Gomez, a self-employed project manager here, never thought much about health care until his 3-year-old son, Anthony, was born and needed a heart transplant.

    The costs soared to $3 million by the time Anthony was 10 weeks old. Mr. Gomez said his family had coverage through his wife’s job. The health law has been a boon for the Gomez family, because it eliminated maximum limits on the amount insurers would cover, so Anthony’s health costs were paid.

    Yet Mr. Gomez is unsettled over changes that may be coming. “I worry about it,” he said. “Health care was a huge issue in this past election, and it will be again.”

    Drug pricing is complicated and secretive. WSJ explains how the flow of money, drugs and rebates behind the scenes may drive up the price of prescription medicine for consumers. Illustration: Mallory Brangan
    Write to Stephanie Armour at stephanie.armour@wsj.com

  89. Success PumpkinDissapearedToday says:

    Grim, please release. Is a copy paste article from WSJ behind the wall

  90. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Pumpkin strikes again. Lefty asked for something to short, and I recently recommended Netflix. Stop with your wild fantasies that I don’t bring value to this blog…that’s all I do is give good calls. Can’t hit them all, but I am proven winner…it’s all written on this blog as evidence.

    “Net­flix Inc. ended the sec­ond quar­ter with fewer sub­scribers than ex­pected, send­ing shares slid­ing more than 11% in af­ter-hours trad­ing on Wednes­day.”

    https://www.wsj.com/articles/netflixs-new-subscriptions-fall-short-in-latest-quarter-11563395753?emailToken=ff92d4abb68a64c388f595dc6d94b9c8G2PjlwqUxXFTcrLxprQpH0nCgeY5AAKcNCDMgVToJNZVmQ/hbThlmEF58Sh8F9iz4HEJIezIQEctcgVb0+45q94tkPto6WtMZaoH+nYalwGGhj+m0o+5OsQkHx2YtlMy&reflink=article_copyURL_share

  91. Blue Ribbon Teacher says:

    But you didn’t short it

  92. reinvestor101 says:

    You’re damn skippy I fought back like hell and got all of my damn money back plus some. Damn buyers were trying to play the choosy game back in 2008/2009 and I held the hell on until I could see the damn whites of their eyes when they had to start bidding again and believe you me, I socked it to them. The only thing we have to watch now is negative damn talk by liberals, communists and real estate terrorists against the damn RE market and our president. It may be time to start detaining some people. I’d like to see these damn people forced to wear MAGA hats and put into the same squalid detention centers the immigrants are in. Bet that would change their damn attitudes

    The Great Pumpkin says:
    July 16, 2019 at 9:45 pm
    Good for you…nice comeback!

  93. Mächïne says:

    Challenging conditions in the U.S. housing market, along with tighter currency controls by the Chinese government, caused a stunning drop in foreign demand for American homes.
    The dollar volume of homes purchased by foreign buyers from April 2018 through March 2019 dropped 36% from the previous year, according to the National Association of Realtors. The decline was due to a drop in the number and average price of purchases. Foreigners bought 183,100 properties with a total value of about $77.9 billion, down from 266,800 valued at $121 billion in the previous period.
    They paid a median price of $280,600, which is higher than the median for all existing homebuyers ($259,600), but it was down from $290,400 the previous year.

    “A confluence of many factors — slower economic growth abroad, tighter capital controls in China, a stronger U.S. dollar and a low inventory of homes for sale — contributed to the pullback of foreign buyers,” said Lawrence Yun, NAR’s chief economist. “However, the magnitude of the decline is quite striking, implying less confidence in owning a property in the U.S.”
    The Chinese were the leading buyers for the seventh consecutive year, purchasing an estimated $13.4 billion worth of residential property. Yet that was a 56% decline from the previous 12 months and comparatively the biggest percentage drop of all foreign buyers. Chinese economic growth slowed to 6.3% in 2019 compared with 6.9% in 2017, when the previous buyer survey began. The Chinese government also tightened its grip on the outflow of cash to purchase foreign property.
    The Chinese may also be souring on U.S. real estate due to the current political climate. Anecdotally, real estate agents in California have seen a pullback in Chinese buyer demand. Southern California had been particularly popular with Chinese parents hoping to send their children to American colleges.
    In the first quarter of this year, Chinese buyer inquiries for U.S. properties on Juwai.com, a Chinese real estate site, were down 27.5% from a year ago. Inquiries have been down in four of the last five quarters.
    “We call it the Trump effect. It’s a combination of anti-Chinese political rhetoric, a clampdown on visa processing, and of course tariffs,” Carrie Law, CEO and director of Juwai.com, said in a recent interview. “The Trump effect is undercutting some of the primary drivers of Chinese demand for U.S. property, including buying homes for students who are studying in the U.S. and the country’s reputation as a safe investment.”

  94. Juice Box says:

    nice weather!

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