Leading Indicator?

From Forbes:

The California Real Estate Boom Is Over. What Now?

If you had invested in a property in San Francisco five years ago and cashed out in 2019, you would have made a 50% profit, never mind the rental income. But if you had bought a year ago and sold today you would have made exactly zero.

The California boom is over and investors need to switch to Plan B, which is the answer to the Jeopardy question: How do you deal with a market that at best will be moving sideways, but could also drop 20%?

The end of the boom in California also poses troubling questions for investments elsewhere in the country. Will other tech economies follow suit? What are the prospects for booming markets in Arizona, Nevada, Utah, Texas and Florida? And will panic selling drive down prices everywhere, as it did in 2008, pushing an already weakened national economy into recession?

This entry was posted in Economics, Housing Bubble, National Real Estate. Bookmark the permalink.

150 Responses to Leading Indicator?

  1. Blue Ribbon Teacher says:

    Listening to them rant about tariffs….”we need strong unions, paid family leave, health insurance, strong regulations”…but we need to have 100% open trade with a nation that steals patents and information, pays their workers peanuts, manipulates their currency, and doesn’t care about pollution.

    This is the primary issue that workers need to be concerned with. Tariffs give domestic labor more bargaining power, it’s as simple as that. The left should have been all for tariffs the entire time.

  2. GdBlsU45 says:

    Esx, what bothers you so much about trump, the fact that he laid bare the corrupt and intellectually dishonest nature of the left or that he’s been successful despite the institutions attempts to destroy him?

  3. Blue Ribbon Teacher says:

    But if you had bought a year ago and sold today you would have made exactly zero.

    Or down 6% after that commission. And 6% percent on a SF property is a huge chunk of money.

  4. 30 year realtor says:

    Story in NY Times today about NYC luxury condos built since 2013. Estimated 25% still unsold…
    Picture an empty apartment — there are thousands in Manhattan’s new towers — and fill it with the city’s chattiest real estate developers. How do you quiet the room?

    Ask about their sales.

    Among the more than 16,200 condo units across 682 new buildings completed in New York City since 2013, one in four remain unsold, or roughly 4,100 apartments — most of them in luxury buildings, according to a new analysis by the listing website StreetEasy.

    “I think we’re being really conservative,” said Grant Long, the website’s senior economist, noting that the study looked specifically at ground-up new construction that has begun to close contracts. Sales in buildings converted to condos, a relatively small segment, were not counted, because they are harder to reliably track. And there are thousands more units in under-construction buildings that have not begun closings but suffer from the same

  5. grim says:

    This is the primary issue that workers need to be concerned with. Tariffs give domestic labor more bargaining power, it’s as simple as that. The left should have been all for tariffs the entire time.

    100% on point.

    Except they can’t bear the thought that he had more success here than nearly every administration before him. Certainly would never give him credit for it. If it was their idea, it would be brilliant.

    It is absolutely absurd that the counterpoint argument to this is that workers would pay more for products at Walmart.

    That’s the f*cking point.

  6. Blue Ribbon Teacher says:

    Trump is a media circus and an egomaniac. But he’s 100% right on tariffs and he’s done a lot of deregulation (removal of the unreasonably burdensome rules for certain businesses) to open up opportunities for people…and not just on the business end. One of the things I was a big fan of was legalizing patients who are ill to try experimental drugs or treatment in development.

  7. grim says:

    Same applies to H1B. I don’t understand the point about teaching our kids STEM if the goal is to drive down wages for STEM workers…

    You are better off sending your son or daughter to trade school to become a plumber, then to university become a software developer.

  8. GdBlsU45 says:

    What about illegals? These people are every bit the wage assassins that H1Bs are.

    Yesterday their was an editorial on nj fake news by an illegal who was decrying an amazon subs mistreatment. The delusion and dishonesty in that piece was mind boggling.

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  10. chicagofinance says:

    Way to many people cannot handle math, let alone enjoy it to the point that it should function as a core part of their vocation……. how the f is STEM going to help that?

    grim says:
    September 13, 2019 at 8:25 am
    Same applies to H1B. I don’t understand the point about teaching our kids STEM if the goal is to drive down wages for STEM workers…

    You are better off sending your son or daughter to trade school to become a plumber, then to university become a software developer.

  11. 30 year realtor says:

    Earlier this week Pumpkin posted links to 2 high end sales in Wayne and was crowing about the strong market. Fact is there are currently 49 single family properties asking more than $700,000 in Wayne currently in GSMLS. Of these 8 indicate under contract status. In the last 12 months 31 properties have closed with sale prices above $700,000. This would be an absorption rate of about 2.6 properties per month. That equates to an about 19 months of inventory for the over $700,000 market in Wayne.

  12. ExEssex says:

    Trump hasn’t “won” this Trade war but he has effectively killed the domestic market for pork and soybeans.

  13. 30 year realtor says:

    Earlier this summer I had a listing on the market in a middle of the road Central Bergen County town priced at $579,900. In July 2 offers were received in the same week. The higher of the 2 after negotiation was $565,000. This offer was accepted over the other offer which was $560,000. During attorney review the buyer pulled out for unknown reasons. We went back to the 560 offer who had already gone into contract for another property.

    Back on the market after the buyer backed out the price was reduced to $569,900. Best offer since then was $530,000. Showings have slacked.

    All the evidence I am seeing with properties currently on the market in Bergen, Passaic, Morris and Hunterdon Counties lead me to the conclusion that values are falling.

  14. Walking bye says:

    I’m hearing from friends concrete work is slowing down in the city over the next 8 months. Might be time to invest in a new car and concrete driveway?

    Here’s is a lead indicator for NJ budget shortfalls. Illinois is finally catching up to paying medical claims to physicians from year 2015-2017 from the state health plan. It was at the point of physicians and dentists refusing to take the state insurance due to lack of reimbursement. Only a matter of time before such a crisis hits here. Slow payments led to

  15. ExEssex says:

    This should be interesting:

    Trump has long denigrated cities, including Los Angeles, San Francisco and New York, as blighted jungles overrun by criminals and homelessness — a tactic some have speculated is part of a campaign strategy heading into the 2020 presidential election. In July, Trump told Fox News that he was “looking very seriously” at removing mentally ill and sick homeless people who “ruin” life for people who live and work in cities.

    Without mentioning the homeless specifically, Trump on Thursday night said that conditions in American cities were deteriorating under Democrats’ watch.

    “Take a look at what’s going on. We’re going to have to step in and do something about it. Because we can’t allow that to happen to our great cities. Los Angeles is a great city,” he said at a Republican conference in Baltimore, another city he has criticized. “Clean it up. You’ve got to do something. You can’t have it. These are our great American cities and they’re an embarrassment.”

    As of January, Los Angeles County had just shy of 59,000 homeless people, while within the city, the number was more than 36,000 — a 16% annual increase.

  16. GdBlsU45 says:

    Esx I don’t claim to be the at commodity expert that you are, but outside of the fake news stratosphere there are indications that trump has the leverage over the Chinese.

    Their economy was softening anyway and companies moving Their investments elsewhere has hit them. They can tariff food if They want but not a great idea While they have a Swine flu Epidemic.

    So until they respect IP laws and are willing to conduct actual fair trade keep putting the screw to them. There are indications it is working. They are coming back to the table.

    Progressives who disagree with him on this only out themselves as TDS folks.

  17. The Great Pumpkin says:

    I posted links due to the fact that these homes were on busy double yellow roads and getting close to 800k.

    I don’t give a crap about how many current listings there are. What condition are they in? Are they desirable? Are they overpriced?

    My links were posted as evidence that if your home is in a bad location, but desirable, it will sell and for a good price.

    30 year realtor says:
    September 13, 2019 at 8:53 am
    Earlier this week Pumpkin posted links to 2 high end sales in Wayne and was crowing about the strong market. Fact is there are currently 49 single family properties asking more than $700,000 in Wayne currently in GSMLS. Of these 8 indicate under contract status. In the last 12 months 31 properties have closed with sale prices above $700,000. This would be an absorption rate of about 2.6 properties per month. That equates to an about 19 months of inventory for the over $700,000 market in Wayne.

  18. co-op says:

    grim, 30year,
    Is it possible to find the names of the individuals who own co-op units? There’s a small complex, and I was considering sending a few letters to see if anyone was interested in selling. From Zillow, it appears some of them are rented so sending a letter to those units would be received by the tenant not owner. Tax records search just has the co-op associated listed, not individuals. Any thoughts would be appreciated!

  19. ExEssex says:

    9:29 your man is a complete fool. Let’s see how it plays out.

  20. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Agreed!

    Bottom line, in a competition, you need a balanced competition. You can’t have one side dominating the competition.

    Blue Ribbon Teacher says:
    September 13, 2019 at 8:05 am
    Listening to them rant about tariffs….”we need strong unions, paid family leave, health insurance, strong regulations”…but we need to have 100% open trade with a nation that steals patents and information, pays their workers peanuts, manipulates their currency, and doesn’t care about pollution.

    This is the primary issue that workers need to be concerned with. Tariffs give domestic labor more bargaining power, it’s as simple as that. The left should have been all for tariffs the entire time.

  21. GdBlsU45 says:

    Esx, blamas utopian bullshlt has been repudiated worldwide. He was a complete failure.

  22. The Great Pumpkin says:

    That’s not a sign of lack of demand, that’s a sign of greed. If they didn’t build multi million dollar units chasing that extreme profit, maybe they wouldn’t be stuck holding the bag. If those units were what the market demanded (lower cost that the demand could afford), maybe they wouldn’t be sitting. I’m sure eventually they will get sold, but developers should learn a lesson on chasing the top of the market. Cater to the market demand instead of the huge profit demand.

    30 year realtor says:
    September 13, 2019 at 8:12 am
    Story in NY Times today about NYC luxury condos built since 2013. Estimated 25% still unsold…
    Picture an empty apartment — there are thousands in Manhattan’s new towers — and fill it with the city’s chattiest real estate developers. How do you quiet the room?

  23. ExEssex says:

    9:40 I disagree. He served two terms, rescued the country from a serious recession, and left with good approval numbers. Your man is literally going to do the exact opposite.

  24. GdBlsU45 says:

    If you like leaders and men of action trump is your guy.

    On the other hand. If you like feel good bullshlt and empty platitudes then you probably miss the blama days.

  25. Fast Eddie says:

    He served two terms, rescued the country from a serious recession…</I?

    LMFAO!!!

  26. Fast Eddie says:

    Italics off

  27. GdBlsU45 says:

    Lol. Approval numbers ok. A lot of real informed voters and reliable polling.

    He did bring us drone blasting of unsuspecting goat herders. That was an accomplishment. And he triggered a few refugee crisises.

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  29. ExEssex says:

    A man of action? That’s the best laugh I have had all morning.

  30. ExEssex says:

    9:50 serious recession that leveled your industry.
    I’d have let it burn and nationalized the whole corrupt and exploitative industry.
    He saved your asses.

  31. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Biased slant will report it is due to taxes. Yes, an 83 year old billionaire is worried about the cost of taxes. Sure…

    Real story here, he is old, and can’t handle the city or the weather up here. Why wouldn’t you be in miami if you are an 80 year old billionaire? Surprised he lasted in NYC till his current age..

    leftwing says:
    September 13, 2019 at 9:57 am
    https://www.cnbc.com/2019/09/13/billionaire-investor-carl-icahn-to-leave-new-york-for-florida.html

  32. ExEssex says:

    Now your biggest fear – Elizabeth Warren – is the front runner to unseat the bloated hyper-tweeting ignorant life-failure in the Office now. Trump is a mentally ill serial failure who has brought his embarrassing act to the world stage. He needs to leave.
    Whatever “wins” you think he might have achieved pale in contrast to the damage he has done.

  33. leftwing says:

    “Biased slant will report it is due to taxes.”

    yet again showing what a dumb fcuk you are…

    Article actually says it is not about taxes…which has as much validity as breaking up with someone and telling them “it’s not you, it’s me”.

    The guy is one of 523 billionaires in the United States, which throws a huge target on his back in this environment. He is still active in a highly regulated business and didn’t get where he is by being stupid….last thing he would say is it’s about taxes.

  34. Fast Eddie says:

    Yes, let’s become a submissive nation and acquiesce as the world’s miscreants and maggots plunder our commodities and identity.

  35. joyce says:

    The Immigration Reform and Control Act (IRCA or the Simpson–Mazzoli Act) was passed by the 99th United States Congress (House majority Democrat, Senate Majority Republican) and signed into law by Republican President Ronald Reagan on November 6, 1986.

    The Immigration Reform and Control Act altered U.S. immigration law, making it illegal to knowingly hire undocumented immigrants and establishing financial and other penalties for companies that employed undocumented immigrants. The act also legalized most undocumented immigrants who had arrived in the country prior to January 1, 1982. Despite the passage of the act, the number of undocumented immigrants in the United States rose from 5 million in 1986 to 11.1 in 2013.

  36. The Great Pumpkin says:

    This is what I’m talking about…

    “Carl Icahn Is Heading to Florida for Lower Tax Rates”

    https://finance.yahoo.com/news/carl-icahn-heading-florida-lower-223623567.html

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  38. No One says:

    Trump is in my view a terrible president, if only from his vanity, lack of self-control when communicating, and need to surround himself with yes-men. But is he a “white supremacist” as some candidate stated? That seems an outrageous accusation to me.

    The Dems are moving harder left than I’ve ever seen them before. They seem obsessed with utilizing the force of government to level all differences. They seem to resent all differences wealth and success as if it were the consequence of an evil system (pre-Obama America?) a combination of thinking dominated by class and race struggle, topped off by a religious belief that “climate change”-necessitates massive control and government transformation of society. They are ready to convert the US to Plato’s Republic, where babies are taken from parents and given to the state to raise, and governed by the rare few geniuses who are in contact with a higher plane of reality than the plebes.

    As for tariffs, I’m against them in principle, just as I’m against taxes generally. On the other hand, I’d like to see a courageous and eloquent politician propose an end to trade with China on the basis that it is the world’s biggest threat as a rising fascist power, which has no respect for individual rights, no press freedom, has one-party-rule that brooks no dissent, and has captured its information systems to become the world’s largest propaganda network. And is blackmailing American companies to become their foreign policy agents. If they are this bad, what good is a 25% tariff?

  39. 3b says:

    30 year Thank you as always for your honest assessment . Of course you know who has the audacity to tell you that you are wrong! I mean what would you know after being 30 years in the business!!

  40. Blue Ribbon Teacher says:

    Trump hasn’t “won” this Trade war but he has effectively killed the domestic market for pork and soybeans.

    If we were China, we would secretly sell all of our soybeans to vietnam so they can play middleman and send them to China.

  41. D-FENS says:

    How is everyone faring during the great recession of 2019? You guys ok?

  42. ExEssex says:

    After seeing a few things over the years,
    I think the US is in serious trouble. I am not
    Putting my faith in a scam
    Artist/failure/personality .

  43. ExEssex says:

    11:51 Everything’s great because lemme guess “you are doing great”… if it works for me it must be perfect! The narcissists credo .

  44. Blue Ribbon Teacher says:

    The agricultural industry is capapble of producing products other than soybeans. There’s way to normalize trade without putting them in this situation. That’s why the right thing to do is keep the soybean farmers afloat while we deal with China. You can’t just look at them and not take these measures because they will be victims. The reality is, if we don’t, there are a lot more victims. Any industry that we invent here, China hijacks.

  45. Joe says:

    I’m also getting tired of racist democrats and they way they are trying to divide the nation.

    I’m voting for Trump in 2020 and in 2024 I would like to see someone like Candice Owens become president.

  46. Libturd, seen crazy things done with ping pong balls. says:

    “D-FENS says:
    September 13, 2019 at 11:51 am
    How is everyone faring during the great recession of 2019? You guys ok?”

    It’s a coming and you are going to be wearing some new clothes before too long. I’ll make sure to utter your quote when it happens.

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  48. leftwing says:

    “Now your biggest fear – Elizabeth Warren – is the front runner…”

    LOL. I’ve been begging for over the year for the Dems to nominate her. Surest way to guarantee another four years of red/orange control of Pennsylvania Ave.

    Separately, the NYT had another run of the mill article on Dem frontrunners ahead of the debate. I’ll try to find the link, it was from Wed. The comments section was informative….

    The article pit Warren v Biden. No mention nearly at all of Bernie. Comments exploded. Easily 10:1 ripping of the NYT by their readership of the NYT ‘bias’ (lol, little bit of kettle and pot thing there, huh).

    Anyway, going to be interesting. Please, please, please nominate Warren. Please.

  49. chicagofinance says:

    kind of spot on…. also, you know China here more than most…

    China is a real problem….. I hope they implode….

    No One says:
    September 13, 2019 at 11:24 am
    Trump is in my view a terrible president, if only from his vanity, lack of self-control when communicating, and need to surround himself with yes-men. But is he a “white supremacist” as some candidate stated? That seems an outrageous accusation to me.

    The Dems are moving harder left than I’ve ever seen them before. They seem obsessed with utilizing the force of government to level all differences. They seem to resent all differences wealth and success as if it were the consequence of an evil system (pre-Obama America?) a combination of thinking dominated by class and race struggle, topped off by a religious belief that “climate change”-necessitates massive control and government transformation of society. They are ready to convert the US to Plato’s Republic, where babies are taken from parents and given to the state to raise, and governed by the rare few geniuses who are in contact with a higher plane of reality than the plebes.

    As for tariffs, I’m against them in principle, just as I’m against taxes generally. On the other hand, I’d like to see a courageous and eloquent politician propose an end to trade with China on the basis that it is the world’s biggest threat as a rising fascist power, which has no respect for individual rights, no press freedom, has one-party-rule that brooks no dissent, and has captured its information systems to become the world’s largest propaganda network. And is blackmailing American companies to become their foreign policy agents. If they are this bad, what good is a 25% tariff?

  50. chicagofinance says:

    I have never voted Republican for President, although the one time I would have (2012) I was AWOL from Superstorm Sandy. Obama didn’t accomplish ANYTHING…. blowhard…. and he is illustrating that the entire Presidency was a marketing effort for his true calling……. CASHING IN after 2016…. ABSOLUTELY NO DIFFERENT THAN TRUMP IN IMPACT – Trump is just completely abhorrent and antithetical to leadership

    ExEssex says:
    September 13, 2019 at 9:44 am
    9:40 I disagree. He served two terms, rescued the country from a serious recession, and left with good approval numbers. Your man is literally going to do the exact opposite.

  51. Libturd, seen crazy things done with ping pong balls. says:

    None of them besides Bernie could beat Trump because they all don’t get it. No one has pointed out the complete and utter failure that was the Trump Corporate Tax giveaway. They think the puZZy package of the left is what the country needs, completely ignoring the economy. But this WILL look very different when the economy tanks. And I’d take Warren over the rest of them, when it comes to fixing the country.

  52. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Please explain what was not honest about my assessment?

    He’s using data that I don’t agree with. There are lots of stubborn individuals that let their house sit on the market because they are not in touch with reality. Should we equate this with the idea that there is no demand? Come on, I showed you homes with high taxes and almost 800k selling in the past week in wayne. Do you understand how busy that black oak ridge road is? Do you understand that french hill road home was at a traffic light? Spare me the bs…

    If a house is priced right and it is DESIRABLE, it will sell. If it hasn’t been updated or wasn’t taken care of, and lacks any type of curb appeal, good f’en luck getting market price.

    3b says:
    September 13, 2019 at 11:28 am
    30 year Thank you as always for your honest assessment . Of course you know who has the audacity to tell you that you are wrong! I mean what would you know after being 30 years in the business!!

  53. DKE says:

    Get out of your partisan silos. If you think one party can solve everything, you are kidding yourselves and this back and fourth with people yelling, both sides love it as it makes for a great smoke screen. Its like people get all excited about being a member of a team and my team is beating your team. If this continues, we are all going to have a problem and if you think it will be confined to the “bad” neighborhoods, you are seriously mistaken.

    Look at healthcare, ever seen a sign at a doc office or hospital listing procedures and prices? You want to drive down costs, give people a tight budget and let them shop. Can do the same for the poor. Once you figure out that your procedure can be done by another doc, clinic or hospital that delivers the same quality for 20% less, word gets out and then providers become competitive. BTW, this also drives down the bureaucracy and headcount and the insurance companies too. Medicare for the poor, OK but they need to be able to shop too and if the program is good enough clinically and cost wise, they can offer it up with less financial support for people with greater means and then they can compete with private pay and we will see where it takes us. Let the market and consumer decide, right now, no matter what side you are on, its not a free market.

    Trade – Tariffs have been much harder than POTUS thought they would be. Not good or bad, but a reality and as some have said, he at least took a stab at it. You all think China will cave? Their populace is forced to act for the good of the nation, sacrifice, coerced or otherwise is the norm. Consensus is that their peeps can endure more pain than our peeps. Have read that the real head of the trade beast is IP theft. Are we attacking that too?

    We are $22+ T in the hole. Infrastructure is rotting, pension system insolvent, healthcare costs that will bankrupt us, obesity epidemic… Iran, S. Korea, China, Russia and the list goes on. We do need friends around the world. These are but a few of the problems and yet its just yelling at each other with limited voice and air time to the above. Solving the problems is hard work and it will involve sacrifice by all (as it should). The partisan way is to try to throw the millstone on the other party’s back and guess what, so far it hasn’t worked unless of course you are a poll seeking election or re-election.

  54. The Great Pumpkin says:

    3b,

    And let the housing market go down…what does it matter to me? It will bring buying opportunities. I’m just in the common sense club that sees almost zero chance of housing going down in price in northern nj. I just don’t see the evidence or fundamentals to support it. Maybe I’m blind and totally wrong, but these prices in north jersey have been supported for some time now, almost a decade. With low rates hanging around, and a greater chance that they fall, I just don’t see how you can lose on housing right now in northern nj. Most towns had stable prices for a while, no run up, so why can’t these current prices be supported by the current market?

  55. Grim says:

    Upgraded the iPhones – good deal.

  56. LOL says:

    data that I don’t agree with

    LOL

  57. The Great Pumpkin says:

    None of this will take us down. FACTS. I’ve been hearing about debt for a long time, and the only thing I have seen come from it…..agenda pushed on the back of fear.

    Do you understand how much debt Germany was in last century? How did they come out of it? How is everything alright a 100 years later? Do you understand how much debt they took on 100 years ago at the end of WWI? Then they were able to build a super power under these conditions and almost take over the world in WWII.

    My advice based on history, ignore these issues. They will never ever end this country.

    “We are $22+ T in the hole. Infrastructure is rotting, pension system insolvent, healthcare costs that will bankrupt us, obesity epidemic”

  58. The Great Pumpkin says:

    If a house is overpriced and has been sitting endlessly, why should we use this to draw the conclusion that there is lack of demand?

    No one is going to overpay for a home YET, the housing crash is still in the backs of their minds. So the home has to meet the markets demands or it will sit.

    LOL says:
    September 13, 2019 at 1:06 pm
    data that I don’t agree with

    LOL

  59. Blue Ribbon Teacher says:

    Everything is alright 100 years later because capitalism works very well.

  60. Juice Box says:

    Anyone been to St. Thomas recently? It was wiped by Hurricane Irma two years ago and I was wondering if it’s fully recovered.

    I am looking to rent a villa for a week in November and the prices seem reasonable maybe too reasonable.

  61. Blue Ribbon Teacher says:

    Someone told me St. Martin is still in shambles

  62. Libturd, seen crazy things done with ping pong balls. says:

    Might I recommend a week of Pura Vida?

  63. GdBlsU45 says:

    A recession was underway and now it will begin at some unspecified date. Way to move the goalpost.

  64. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Bingo….you get it.

    They were overcome with debt in the 1920’s and by 1940 they were well on their way to almost taking over the world. If they could overcome that, anyone can. Our pension and national debt issues are nothing compared to how much debt Germany was in after WWI.

    Blue Ribbon Teacher says:
    September 13, 2019 at 1:18 pm
    Everything is alright 100 years later because capitalism works very well.

  65. Juice Box says:

    You mean the rain forest full of mosquitoes, snakes and monkeys?

    Where to stay?

  66. Libturd, seen crazy things done with ping pong balls. says:
  67. JCer says:

    Germany’s debt was forgiven by the US. The reason US debt doesn’t matter is because we are the world’s reserve currency, all raw materials are priced and settled in dollars, much of the Americas defacto uses dollars for pricing. Being responsible for most of the worlds defense also leads to america not being treated the same.

  68. Libturd, seen crazy things done with ping pong balls. says:

    Ha ha. There are all types of climates there.

    Check out Playa Grande in Guanacaste.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=emFRuclY6CI

  69. Libturd, seen crazy things done with ping pong balls. says:

    $66 a night, breakfast included.

    https://www.tripadvisor.com/Hotel_Review-g309245-d942027-Reviews-Hotel_Cantarana-Playa_Grande_Province_of_Guanacaste.html

    Beach is 4 minute walk and you’ll have it completely to yourself.

  70. Libturd, seen crazy things done with ping pong balls. says:

    Samara is a hippy enclave Juice. Surfer’s paradise. Excellent bakery there. Though kind of muddy down there. The highway between the ferry and Nosara is an adventure (in potholes and mud). Fly into Liberia and do the North Pacific Coast (45 minute drive). Plus Tamarindo, which is a lot like Cozumel, is close by if you want to gamble, party or just be a tourist.

  71. 30 year realtor says:

    I believe many people do not understand the definition of white supremacy.

    white su·prem·a·cy
    noun
    the belief that white people are superior to those of all other races, especially the black race, and should therefore dominate society.

    The definition does not require action. You do not have to treat anyone badly. No hateful behavior is required. All you have to do is believe.

    I was born in 1960 and the America I grew up in believed this. Why is this so hard for people to admit? It is clear that many on this blog still do.

    If you are able to see the truth that all people are the same despite the color of their skin or the place that they come from, you should be able to wrap your head around history and accept concepts like white privilege. Be able to understand the origins of social problems in African American communities and accept that they are the product of white supremacy. And you should be able to admit that we live in a society that is racist.

    If you look me in the eye and tell me that you are OK with this because it is good for you, I have more respect for you than if you flat out deny this reality. Even if you are a racist, at least you aren’t a liar!

    No One says:
    September 13, 2019 at 11:24 am
    Trump is in my view a terrible president, if only from his vanity, lack of self-control when communicating, and need to surround himself with yes-men. But is he a “white supremacist” as some candidate stated? That seems an outrageous accusation to me.

  72. Libturd, seen crazy things done with ping pong balls. says:

    Nigga please.

  73. Juice Box says:

    We do need to rise above these divisive arguments. We are all individuals with our own unique characteristics, and no people even twins are exactly the same. We are all unique creations whether it was god or the natural universe that created us and we should treat each other as such.

  74. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Bingo.

    Even if we weren’t the reserve currency, who are debts owed to? Are they currently living without it? They will survive if it goes bust. The sun will shine again…

    JCer says:
    September 13, 2019 at 1:59 pm
    Germany’s debt was forgiven by the US. The reason US debt doesn’t matter is because we are the world’s reserve currency, all raw materials are priced and settled in dollars, much of the Americas defacto uses dollars for pricing. Being responsible for most of the worlds defense also leads to america not being treated the same.

  75. LOL says:

    Great, considering everyone’s timeline is 100 years. There won’t be any pain for the generations of people born at the wrong time.

    The Great Pumpkin says:
    September 13, 2019 at 2:44 pm
    Bingo.

    Even if we weren’t the reserve currency, who are debts owed to? Are they currently living without it? They will survive if it goes bust. The sun will shine again…

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  77. JCer says:

    30 year, I’m going to go ahead and disagree. Structural racism to a degree has had a negative impact but the societal breakdown of the African American community is actually far simpler broken homes, broken families and a broken value system is to blame. The simple fact is the vast majority of people of all races and backgrounds are unintelligent. The masses are a$$es so to speak. Culture, society and societal norms are what usually protects the relatively stupid members of society from partaking in damaging behavior. This element is largely missing from African american communities and lets be honest the pattern has it’s origins in slavery but the power to break the cycle has been with individuals since before the 20th century began, poverty and racism are not good reasons or excuses for perpetuating broken households and not taking personal responsibility.

    True or not white privilege and many of the conversations around race are highly damaging to minorities as a whole, it is not the road forward, it helps nothing and creates disunity among the different groups. People are not all the same the truth is individuals are all different and the quality of an individual’s character is separate and distinct from race or background.

    Not all cultures are equal, success and achievement are tied to very specific behaviors.

  78. Juice Box says:

    Off-balance-sheet liabilities are more worriesome than the 22 trillion in debt, it could be over 70 trillion.

  79. Juice Box says:

    Foreign holders of UST all in one chart.

    $6.433 trillion

    https://howmuch.net/articles/foreign-holders-of-usa-debt

  80. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Got my vote if you run for office. You nail it.

    When are we going to stop using the damn race card and instead look at the actions of the individual, and the choices they make. You decided to knock up your baby mama and walk away….there will be consequences for your culture if this is the norm.

    JCer says:
    September 13, 2019 at 3:08 pm
    30 year, I’m going to go ahead and disagree. Structural racism to a degree has had a negative impact but the societal breakdown of the African American community is actually far simpler broken homes, broken families and a broken value system is to blame. The simple fact is the vast majority of people of all races and backgrounds are unintelligent. The masses are a$$es so to speak. Culture, society and societal norms are what usually protects the relatively stupid members of society from partaking in damaging behavior. This element is largely missing from African american communities and lets be honest the pattern has it’s origins in slavery but the power to break the cycle has been with individuals since before the 20th century began, poverty and racism are not good reasons or excuses for perpetuating broken households and not taking personal responsibility.

    True or not white privilege and many of the conversations around race are highly damaging to minorities as a whole, it is not the road forward, it helps nothing and creates disunity among the different groups. People are not all the same the truth is individuals are all different and the quality of an individual’s character is separate and distinct from race or background.

    Not all cultures are equal, success and achievement are tied to very specific behaviors.

  81. The Great Pumpkin says:

    No white supremacist could harm or hold back an African American more than the damage they do to themselves by abandoning the idea of a nuclear family. They harm themselves the most, yet they look for every excuse in the book to say otherwise.

    Man, those white guys keep holding me down…so racist. In the same breath, ignore the consequences of not valuing family structure and education.

  82. The Great Pumpkin says:

    The point is flying right over your head..

    LOL says:
    September 13, 2019 at 2:51 pm
    Great, considering everyone’s timeline is 100 years. There won’t be any pain for the generations of people born at the wrong time.

  83. chicagofinance says:

    Why do you even post here? You embarrass yourself. Take you self-loathing and shove it up your a$$. You are a bigger problem for our society than you will ever know. You are either a fool or willfully ignorant. You appear to consider yourself more evolved and with a high moral authority. You are blind.

    30 year realtor says:
    September 13, 2019 at 2:23 pm
    I believe many people do not understand the definition of white supremacy.

    white su·prem·a·cy
    noun
    the belief that white people are superior to those of all other races, especially the black race, and should therefore dominate society.

    The definition does not require action. You do not have to treat anyone badly. No hateful behavior is required. All you have to do is believe.

    I was born in 1960 and the America I grew up in believed this. Why is this so hard for people to admit? It is clear that many on this blog still do.

    If you are able to see the truth that all people are the same despite the color of their skin or the place that they come from, you should be able to wrap your head around history and accept concepts like white privilege. Be able to understand the origins of social problems in African American communities and accept that they are the product of white supremacy. And you should be able to admit that we live in a society that is racist.

    If you look me in the eye and tell me that you are OK with this because it is good for you, I have more respect for you than if you flat out deny this reality. Even if you are a racist, at least you aren’t a liar!

    No One says:
    September 13, 2019 at 11:24 am
    Trump is in my view a terrible president, if only from his vanity, lack of self-control when communicating, and need to surround himself with yes-men. But is he a “white supremacist” as some candidate stated? That seems an outrageous accusation to me.

  84. chicagofinance says:

    By the way, that guy is in a mixed marriage.

  85. LOL says:

    You’ve said that statement to every poster here. Do you notice the common variable?

    The Great Pumpkin says:
    September 13, 2019 at 3:26 pm
    The point is flying right over your head..

    LOL says:
    September 13, 2019 at 2:51 pm
    Great, considering everyone’s timeline is 100 years. There won’t be any pain for the generations of people born at the wrong time.

  86. chicagofinance says:

    grim unmod?

    chicagofinance says:
    Your comment is awaiting moderation.
    September 13, 2019 at 6:20 pm

  87. chicagofinance says:

    Everyone Knows the Truth About Politics

    The Democrats are scrambling, Trump is a screwball and the sane center is getting ignored.

  88. chicagofinance says:

    By Peggy Noonan

    Everybody knows everything.” That mordant observation is the first of Burnham’s Laws. James Burnham was a significant mid-20th century figure, a public intellectual and political philosopher who started out on the left—as a young follower he carried on an extensive personal correspondence with Leon Trotsky —and became in time an eloquent foe of totalitarianism in whatever its manifestation. While at National Review, which he helped found, he gave his colleagues 10 maxims or laws about the realities of life. No. 5 is the wholly true, “Wherever there is prohibition there’s a bootlegger.” No. 10 has become well known: “If there’s no alternative, there’s no problem.”

    But most arresting, and richest in inference, is No. 1, which I always pare down to EVERYONE KNOWS.

    The big secret is that it isn’t a secret.

    In its personal application Burnham’s No. 1 Law suggests you can’t successfully or forever conceal anything bad about yourself and your nature, it will all come out and probably has. People see more than you know. Don’t focus on concealment but creation. In political terms it suggests: everyone knows your essential position and future necessities; your close-hold campaign strategies are actually obvious.

    For instance:

    Everyone knows Donald Trump can be taken in 2020, but everyone doubts the ability of the current Democratic field to do it. Everyone knows Elizabeth Warren has successfully created and inhabited a persona—the determined, high-energy fighter full of plans—and is killing it. She knows she has gone too far left for the general electorate and will introduce nuance and an air of greater moderation once she gets the nomination. Everyone knows this.

  89. chicagofinance says:

    Everyone knows the Democratic moderates are going nowhere and cluttering up every stage, but no one minds their being there because they make the party look sane.

    Joe Biden may have about 30% in the polls, but that means all the candidates to his left have about 70%. Mr. Biden’s front-runner status as a perceived moderate (changes in his stands leave him to the left of Hillary Clinton ) doesn’t demonstrate that the party’s primary-goers tilt moderate. It shows they’re mostly progressive, and the perceived moderate is getting that part of the base. The Democratic Party really HAS gone sharply left, and everyone knows.

    Shall we be rude? Oh, let’s. Everyone knows Donald Trump is a mental case, including I believe Donald Trump. Why else does he keep insisting he is an “extremely stable genius”? It’s as if he knows a lot of people are certain he’s neither.

    It would be nice here to say, “I don’t mean mental case. I mean his mind is a raucous TV funhouse; that he is immature, unserious, and at the mercy of poor impulse control; that he doesn’t exercise power intelligently but emotionally, and with an eye, always to personal needs.” But mental case will do.

    He just fired his third national security adviser, by Twitter , under contested circumstances. They had apparently argued: the president was going to invite the Taliban, that band of gangsters, mooks and morons who housed the terrorists who killed 3,000 of us 18 years ago this week, to Camp David. Camp David! The august retreat where presidents host great nations and great allies. Where FDR met with Churchill and Reagan walked with Thatcher.

  90. chicagofinance says:

    No one who knows what history IS would do this. No one who knows the American people would do it. No one who felt 9/11 in his bones would do it. But a guy going for a cheap handshake and a triumphant photo would. It’s the kind of idea a mental case might readily entertain.

    By my observation something is going on with Mr. Trump’s supporters. They now concede much more about him in private than they did in the past. They use words like “unpredictable” or “emotional” or “a little chaotic.” They say, “Well, he may be crazy but maybe that’s what’s needed to keep his enemies hopping.” He may not be a good man, they concede, but the swamp has defeated good men.

    What is interesting is that they no longer say what they used to—“You’ve got it wrong, he’s stable, a successful businessman, a realist.” And they no longer compare him to Reagan.

  91. chicagofinance says:

    His most frequent public defenders now believe he’s a screwball, which is why they no longer devote their time to lauding him but to attacking his critics.

    They’re uncomfortable. He is wearing his own people down.

    To Thursday night’s debate:

    The great question isn’t who got the most time or who got in a good shot, those things are rarely as important as they seem at the moment. The real question is: Did the candidates in the row of podiums show any sign that they are aware they’re going too far left? That they have come across in previous debates as extreme and outside the mainstream?

  92. chicagofinance says:

    Maybe a little. There seemed to be some recalibrating. No one bravely declared they’ll outlaw all private health insurance. Ms. Warren in fact repeatedly and rather brazenly ducked the question. It must be showing up in her polls that telling more than 100 million people you’ll take away their health insurance isn’t a “popular idea.” No one called for open borders, or federal funding for abortions for transgender women. There was a lot of identity politics and autobiography.

    My first impression was that so many of the contenders are such accomplished TV performers with such rounded, practiced sentences that are so dramatically delivered. It is hard to remember but JFK and Nixon were a little shy to be on TV in their 1960 debate, and a little formal. Jimmy Carter, too, 20 years later, with Reagan—they had a certain muted tone. Up until 2000 or so, national TV was a place where you would appropriately feel nervous. Now candidates are so smooth, so TV-ready. Performers in their natural habitat.

  93. chicagofinance says:

    This isn’t new, of course. But each cycle it seems a little more so, and a little more unsettling.

    Ms. Warren was relatively quiet, almost recessive during the first half, and emerged unscathed as Bernie Sanders and Mr. Biden went at each other. Mr. Biden was fine. As Mr. Sanders spoke and gesticulated in his wide and ranty way I remembered that sometimes the thing that works against you is also what works for you. He comes across like your angry M5nshe6ik uncle in the attic, but like that uncle he means what he says, is sincere and convinced, and that has its own power.

    ***
    I close with a last thing everyone knows, if they only think a minute. When we talk about politics we all obsess on alt-right and progressive left, those peas in a sick pod, and no one speaks of the center, which is vast and has something neither way-left nor way-right has, and that is a motivating love for America itself, and not for abstractions and ideologies and theories of the case. As a group they are virtually ignored, and yet they are the center of everything. They include those of the left who are no longer comfortable in a new progressive party. And rightists not comfortable with Mr. Trump, or with the decisions and approaches of the Bush era. It includes those experiencing ongoing EID—extreme ideological discomfort.

    In this cycle they continue to be the great ignored. And everyone knows.

  94. chicagofinance says:

    This isn’t new, of course. But each cycle it seems a little more so, and a little more unsettling.

    ***
    I close with a last thing everyone knows, if they only think a minute. When we talk about politics we all obsess on alt-right and progressive left, those peas in a sick pod, and no one speaks of the center, which is vast and has something neither way-left nor way-right has, and that is a motivating love for America itself, and not for abstractions and ideologies and theories of the case. As a group they are virtually ignored, and yet they are the center of everything. They include those of the left who are no longer comfortable in a new progressive party. And rightists not comfortable with Mr. Trump, or with the decisions and approaches of the Bush era. It includes those experiencing ongoing EID—extreme ideological discomfort.

    In this cycle they continue to be the great ignored. And everyone knows.

  95. No One says:

    Thanks for posting, Chifi. I usually agree with Noonan and always find her thoughtful.

  96. Grim says:

    To the left, to be in the middle is far worse than to be in the right.

  97. leftwing says:

    Noonan was and is of solid stock. Since her early years with Reagan. Pragmatic right. Need more of her.

  98. leftwing says:

    “The Great Pumpkin says:
    The point is flying right over your head..”

    Fool.

    “LOL says:
    Great, considering everyone’s timeline is 100 years. There won’t be any pain for the generations of people born at the wrong time.”

    Why do you try to reason with this fool?

    Weimar, hyper-inflation that absolutely beggared an entire generation?
    Who cares, 100 years later, it’s great!

    1938-1945? Eh, whats a five or six million cremations, give or take?
    Who cares, 100 years later, it’s great!

    DDR soc1al1st control, 1948-1990, that so impoverished an otherwise industrious people that walls had to be erected to keep citizens impounded and those brave enough to attempt escape from this workers ‘paradise’ were shot dead on the spot fleeing?
    Who cares, 100 years later, it’s great!

    Guess what? You try to reason with the shit flinging monkey? You’re only going to be covered in his shit.

  99. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Lefty,

    I was simply alluding to the fact that life finds a way.

    I’m pea-brained, but haven’t you learned this by now. If 2008 wasn’t the end of the world, I’ll double down on my position all day. Problems get solved, life goes on.

  100. The Great Pumpkin says:

    The can always gets kicked down the road. Always has, always will…

  101. D-FENS says:

    Trump is a hand grenade that voters rolled into Washington. Nothing makes people happier these days then seeing Washington insiders want to gargle drano over the stress he causes them.

  102. The Great Pumpkin says:

    In the 70’s, what was the end of the world crisis and did it stop us?

    In the 80’s, what was the end of the world crisis and did it stop us?

    In the 90’s, what was the end of the world crisis and did it stop us?

    In the 200o’s, what was the end of the world crisis and did it stop us?

    What’s the current crisis and why does it matter? Have you not learned from above…life finds a way.

    LOL says:
    September 13, 2019 at 5:41 pm
    You’ve said that statement to every poster here. Do you notice the common variable?

    The Great Pumpkin says:
    September 13, 2019 at 3:26 pm
    The point is flying right over your head

  103. The Great Pumpkin says:

    That’s the problem with smart people. They discover these complex problems in our system, but they are blocked by tunnel vision. They can’t grasp that the issue will get resolved. True story.

  104. 30 year realtor says:

    Chifi, why so angry? I gave the definition and my opinion. If you would like to argue about my opinion, I welcome it. Please be specific. Regarding the definition, that is the meaning of the term. Nothing to argue.

  105. 30 year realtor says:

    Why do I comment here? Force of habit. And this is a real estate blog.

  106. 30 year realtor says:

    JCer, mass incarceration is responsible for the breakdown of the family unit. Read the statistics on the percentage of African American males 40 and under who are imprisoned or under supervision. The numbers are staggering.

  107. The Great Pumpkin says:

    30 year,

    I could sympathize with that point, but the reality is that you can’t be incarcerated if you are not breaking the law. Again, understand their values. This is why most of them fail. They are their own worst enemy. They focus on blaming and excuses as opposed to just sucking it up and taking on whatever life throws at you. Excuses and blaming get you nowhere fast. Hard work and sacrifice get you there fast.

  108. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Life is about grit. Surviving. Rolling with the punches. If we become a species where everyone gets a trophy, it will be our undoing. Competitiveness is a strength, not a weakness. It’s what pushes us to do great things.

    A person born rich is at a huge competitive disadvantage. They have no motivation. They don’t have that drive to ride from the bottom. They were given a cheat code to play the game and how fun is that? Maybe for a dumbass that’s good, but for an intelligent individual it’s boring. Why chase what you already have…

    So like the ying and the yang, white privilege does not come without major costs to the individual. It’s not a one way street. And I don’t wish upon anyone the pressure that comes with HAVING to MAKE IT to any Ivy League school under these conditions that rob your motivation.

    White privilege. Poor inner city kids put minimum effort into their studies. Meanwhile, rich kid is stressed beyond belief in the long term quest to get into an Ivy League school. And after one gets there, must be made to felt guilty that it was due to white privilege. GTFO of here!!

  109. Libturd, channelling George Takei says:

    Oh my!

  110. ExEssex says:

    The question of institutional racism
    Is a valid concern but certainly inflammatory.

    We’ll never be able to correct the failings of our ancestors just like the nazis will never repay my family for the absolute devastation they perpetrated. But we can try.

  111. 30 year realtor says:

    Not going to engage Pumpkin. It is ironic that so many of you that think of him as the village idiot probably agree with much of what he has said in regard to my recent comments. Food for thought?

  112. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Grass is always greener on the other side.

    Belief in white privilege is a perfect example. Yes, a white male’s life is picture perfect. Like living in the Brady bunch. Wish that was true…

    Play the hand you are dealt. Focus all your energy on how you can improve with what you have. Grow slowly, and eventually you are in a much better place…but everyone wants it now and with no work/effort. What a joke.

  113. Chicago says:

    How on target is this? Need to penetrate the thick heads of people such as 30 year.

    On Aug. 28, 1963, Martin Luther King Jr. said he dreamed his children should “one day live in a nation where they will not be judged by the color of their skin but by the content of their character.” Although many people have attempted to live up to that hope and many have succeeded, in recent years an insidious current rejects Dr. King’s dream and insists that content of character is nothing compared to the color of someone’s skin.

    At the very moment when the issue of race might at long last have been put to rest, it is now becoming the most important issue of all.

  114. 30 year realtor says:

    Chicago, Do I assume you don’t know who you are quoting or do I assume you do and that you hold his views? If you know who Douglas Murray is and agree with him I am proud to be considered thick headed by you!

    It is as though you think that racial equality has been achieved and anyone screaming about injustice is seeking special treatment. Who is the thick headed one?

  115. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Chi,

    Powerful passage..nailed it. Until we stop referencing the color of the skin, then white privilege movement goes directly against MLK’S philosophy and core belief.

    Thinking about it, won’t surprise me if “white privilege” is viewed in twenty years for what it really is..pure racism based on the sex and race of the individual. Doing exactly what you rally against. Fake bs.

  116. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Just lump all white people into a state of privilege. Who came up with this? They have no idea how racist they really are..

    Any movement involving the color of the skin in title is racist.

  117. 30 year realtor says:

    In Murray’s world, wealth and social power naturally accrue towards a “cognitive elite” made up of high-IQ individuals (who are overwhelmingly white, male, and from well-to-do families), while those on the lower end of the eponymous bell curve form an “underclass” whose misfortunes stem from their low intelligence. According to Murray, the relative differences between the white and black populations of the United States, as well as those between men and women, have nothing to do with discrimination or historical and structural disadvantages, but rather stem from genetic differences between the groups. The Bell Curve, which remains Murray’s most controversial work, firmly lays out Murray’s belief, shared with Herrnstein, that the groups that make up the “underclass” are there solely because of their genes.

  118. ExEssex says:

    Good friend. Harvard educated banker.
    Still in 2019 is the only person of color in any group photo. Lily White Sea of banisters and one brother.

  119. The Great Pumpkin says:

    30 year,

    Leaving out race, how do you account for wallington and Passaic. Right next to each other, same poverty level, yet two different worlds. Could culture and individual choices explain this? Let’s leave race out of it.

  120. Joe says:

    People like 30 year only make things worse with his racist white privilege crap. It is too bad he can’t see that. He is part of the problem.

  121. Blue Ribbon Teacher says:

    My tax dollars just went to build a $155 million dollar brand new school that is overly extravagant in Trenton. Huge murals, gigantic basketball court. Don’t get me wrong, they needed a new school. But they made it rain like Pacman Jones at Las Vegas.

    Meanwhile, I teach in one of the richest towns in NJ. They took all of our desktops out of the classrooms. We are no longer paying for Microsoft office. The roof is leaking all over the place. The heating/AC doesn’t work. We and over 100 other districts can’t settle contract in a time of record high employment and stock market gains.

    White privileged is a myth in NJ. All of the wealthy suburbs are letting their schools fall apart while the abbotts keep getting brand new state of the art facilities.

  122. Chicago says:

    Change you can believe in.

    Former First Lady Michelle Obama is coming to Newark Nov. 3 and fans are shelling out big bucks to hear what she has to say.

    The cheap seats for the “Moderated Conversation” at the Prudential Center were going for $144 on Ticketmaster.

    Want facetime? Prime seats and a “meet and greet” will cost you $2,500.

    Floor seats are priced as high as $1,300 and the most expensive ticket currently available is $4,200 for a suite-level ducat.

    Obama will be making five other stops in Canada and one in Texas beginning Sept. 23. The moderator will be announced at a later date.

    Last year, the former first lady embarked on a similar tour to promote her best-selling memoir “Becoming.”

  123. Chicago says:

    30. I have no idea who he is. That is the reason for the excerpt without attribution.

    Regardless, it is potent and cogent point.

    30 year realtor says:
    September 14, 2019 at 3:25 pm
    In Murray’s world, wealth and social power naturally accrue towards a “cognitive elite” made up of high-IQ individuals (who are overwhelmingly white, male, and from well-to-do families), while those on the lower end of the eponymous bell curve form an “underclass” whose misfortunes stem from their low intelligence. According to Murray, the relative differences between the white and black populations of the United States, as well as those between men and women, have nothing to do with discrimination or historical and structural disadvantages, but rather stem from genetic differences between the groups. The Bell Curve, which remains Murray’s most controversial work, firmly lays out Murray’s belief, shared with Herrnstein, that the groups that make up the “underclass” are there solely because of their genes

  124. grim says:

    My 6 year old hit the genetic lottery.

    She has a near photographic memory, she’s very gifted there. I’d say photographic memory, but it sounds too pretentious. We’ve learned to never doubt her recollection of anything. I find myself asking her to validate my own memory. I’m not talking about remembering memorable events, I’m talking about remembering even the most obscure detail on a random day. For a long time we doubted her – not any more. It’s stunning really. When she was around 3, we’d ask her how she knew things, she would almost always say “I just see it” or “I see it in my head”.

    Perhaps related, she is very good when it comes to reading and math. She finished kindergarten reading at a second grade level (J and K). At the rate she reads, I suspect she’ll be reading at a 3rd or 4th grade level by the end of first grade. She absolutely loves science books, which I’m floored about.

    All this and she was born premie – which is typically a negative here.

    She’ll do very very well in school. I can already tell. She absolutely has genetic privilege.

  125. Blue Ribbon Teacher says:

    She has a near photographic memory, she’s very gifted there. I’d say photographic memory, but it sounds too pretentious. We’ve learned to never doubt her recollection of anything. I find myself asking her to validate my own memory. I’m not talking about remembering memorable events, I’m talking about remembering even the most obscure detail on a random day. For a long time we doubted her – not any more. It’s stunning really. When she was around 3, we’d ask her how she knew things, she would almost always say “I just see it” or “I see it in my head”.

    I dunno if it lasts. My son was the same way. Every single thing that ever happened, he remembered. He remembered his 1 year old birthday party. But when he turned six, that ability seemed to fade a little. He still has a great memory, just not uncanny anymore.

    I was kind of the same way. I actually have a memory from when I was 1 and plenty when I was 2. When I was in high school and college, I was able to tell you the date, day, and activity I did that day going two years back. I did notice that my memory took a huge hit in my mid 20s when I drank entirely too much liquor every day. These days, I can’t even remember what I ate for dinner yesterday and I’m forgetting people’s last names. That being said…my grandfather literally when senile around age 45. My mother was senile at age 60. I can tell there are parts of my brain that are rapidly deteriorating. Ironically, the part of my brain that requires me to do high level physics calculations is still getting better every year.

  126. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Wayne made sportscenter top ten… sick catch!

    Grim, good job pushing those Wayne scores up!! Congrats on the gifted daughter.

  127. 30 year realtor says:

    According to the most recent census Wallington household income $59,000 and Passaic $31,000.

  128. GdBlsU45 says:

    Never heard of Murray before the leftist PC thugs attacked him at the elitist college and broke that women’s arm. But there is no question in my mind, he votes democrat.

    That type of thinking aligns perfectly with their philosophy. Separate everyone up into bins. Identify oppressed and oppressors. Exploit the situation by promoting yourself in the name of justice for the oppressed.

    It’s a very successful strategy. When you get people to buy into that, it absolves them of personal responsibility. They become dependent on politicians for relative success. They are essentially trapped in that mindset.

    What 30 year is preaching is a blueprint for intergenerational failure. It’s toxic and dangerous.

  129. GdBlsU45 says:

    Grim, congrats. Sadly many children in this generation are being told they owe their success largely to privileged advantage and not due to any innate qualities. i.e. they should handicap themselves somehow or they are a bad person.

    I will do my best to cancel that out but with the progressive capture of the educational system it is difficult.

  130. The Great Pumpkin says:

    They are really the same demographic. Want to know the difference? One is trying to escape and move up, while the other is complacent with living off the govt. That’s the difference in the numbers, they are both poor. How many two income households in wallington making 59,000 combined, while Passaic has single or no income households. Keep making excuses for these people..

    30 year realtor says:
    September 15, 2019 at 9:18 am
    According to the most recent census Wallington household income $59,000 and Passaic $31,000.

  131. GdBlsU45 says:

    I am work friends with a guy who came to the country as a teenager from asia with nothing. Spent a few years as a navy welder and eventually got a degree with the gov subsidized. Now Middle Aged, owns a home and drives a luxury vehicle.

    That path is open to ANYONE with a little work ethic and ambition. This supposedly in the land of white privilege. What a bunch of bullshlt. He laughs at them mention of it.

  132. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Can’t even throw garbage in a can, just automatically on the street. Why? Because they are f’ing lazy. No excuse for throwing trash on the ground. Wallington gets it, but Passaic doesn’t. Both poor, but worlds apart.

  133. chicagofinance says:

    At a dinner party last night. There is a public referendum on 9/24 to vote money to fix our aging and decripit education plant in Colts Neck. It is embarassing. The middle school literally has water pouring in from the roof during rainstorms. Most of the classrooms have no air conditioning. ….. yada, yada, yada…. talking to people from around town that are older 65-75…. their attitude…. fcuk you, I didn’t have air conditioning when I went to school. Meanwhile, when my son goes on travel cross country, track and basketball to places such as Neptune….. his reaction is WTF? It is the Taj Mahal. Nothing like having Rumson over to scrimmage in the gym and the parents drive 40 minutes so they can stand and watch their kids because the stands are rusted and unusable in the wet weather…..

    Blue Ribbon Teacher says:
    September 14, 2019 at 8:53 pm
    My tax dollars just went to build a $155 million dollar brand new school that is overly extravagant in Trenton. Huge murals, gigantic basketball court. Don’t get me wrong, they needed a new school. But they made it rain like Pacman Jones at Las Vegas.

    Meanwhile, I teach in one of the richest towns in NJ. They took all of our desktops out of the classrooms. We are no longer paying for Microsoft office. The roof is leaking all over the place. The heating/AC doesn’t work. We and over 100 other districts can’t settle contract in a time of record high employment and stock market gains.

    White privileged is a myth in NJ. All of the wealthy suburbs are letting their schools fall apart while the abbotts keep getting brand new state of the art facilities.

  134. chicagofinance says:

    Just to point this out….. politically I don’t care one way or the other, I am more concerned about the implications of this evidence…..

    https://nypost.com/2019/09/15/nyt-deletes-bizarre-brett-kavanaugh-tweet-about-having-a-pens-thrust-in-your-face/

  135. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Look at Clifton. The Athenia section where I own my rental is multi family and not rich. How come that side of Clifton is clean and nice for a poorer area? Go to other side of Clifton and it’s another world. Why so different? What culture inhabits each area? Both are same class of citizen, but why so different?

  136. chicagofinance says:

    in the hyperlink above, add the letter “i” in the word “pens”; only way to poster through filter….

  137. chicagofinance says:

    West side of Red Bank…. historically was the “black” section, but now is really Mexican/Latino…… as the economy has maintained and most of the dregs have been run out of the country, what remains is a pleasant middle calss/lower-middle class neighborhood of families and little postage stamp yards that are well kept. Prefectly fine. People care. Driving home, it is great to have the windows down and smell all the barbeques going…… is it so difficult to surmount? No… work ethic, family focus, commitment to improvement.

    The Great Pumpkin says:
    September 15, 2019 at 10:21 am
    Look at Clifton. The Athenia section where I own my rental is multi family and not rich. How come that side of Clifton is clean and nice for a poorer area? Go to other side of Clifton and it’s another world. Why so different? What culture inhabits each area? Both are same class of citizen, but why so different?

  138. The Great Pumpkin says:

    You have all these really smart individuals wasting their brain power and time over analyzing the situation to come up with “white privilege.” It so simple…it’s exactly what you state below.

    “is it so difficult to surmount? No… work ethic, family focus, commitment to improvement.”

    Follow this model and everything will fall into place. Sit on your a$$ all day complaining and making excuses gets you far…real far! Idiots!

  139. Blue Ribbon Teacher says:

    At a dinner party last night. There is a public referendum on 9/24 to vote money to fix our aging and decripit education plant in Colts Neck. It is embarassing. The middle school literally has water pouring in from the roof during rainstorms. Most of the classrooms have no air conditioning. ….. yada, yada, yada…. talking to people from around town that are older 65-75…. their attitude…. fcuk you, I didn’t have air conditioning when I went to school. Meanwhile, when my son goes on travel cross country, track and basketball to places such as Neptune….. his reaction is WTF? It is the Taj Mahal. Nothing like having Rumson over to scrimmage in the gym and the parents drive 40 minutes so they can stand and watch their kids because the stands are rusted and unusable in the wet weather…..

    Ironically, when I drove by Colt’s Neck high school…I was an awe of how much nicer it is on the outside than my own. But this is exactly what I’m talking about. Every town would have the ability to fund their own district’s repairs/upgrades/new buildings. But the abbotts are too busy sucking up all the money that is bleeding out over property taxes. I’m amazed at how they manage to do this over a court ruling. What is “fair” about Asbury getting over 30k per kid when suburbs are struggling to keep their kids under 15k

  140. leftwing says:

    “You have all these really smart individuals wasting their brain power and time over analyzing the situation to come up with “white privilege.” ”

    The Left are not wasting their brain power and time. It is their worldview. They are executing on their agenda exactly and with the energy they intend.

    “I’m amazed at how they manage to do this over a court ruling. What is “fair” about Asbury getting over 30k per kid when suburbs are struggling to keep their kids under 15k”

    Nothing is fair about it. But if you are going to let the Left cower you into a corner by throwing every possible -ism your way that is on you, not them. Again, they are executing exactly on their worldview with whatever tools are at their disposal including, and especially, your own conscience.

    I was four years Ivy, Government major. I shared way too many experiences with people of this ilk. They are not harmless. They are not clueless. They are not benign.

    What they are is downright dangerous. If you allow them to invade your most personal spaces – your child’s well being, your earnings, your mind – they will take what they can and leave the place a mess.

    Again, yield to their foolish assertions like systemic racism and that is on you, not them. Instead, throw them out loudly and hard like the freeloaders they are.

  141. ExEssex says:

    5:51 you just summarized the whole of California.

  142. JCer says:

    30 year on the topic of incarceration, the particular community you are discussing has high level of criminality. Crime and incarceration are correlated as is crime and poverty, culturally it is more accepted in African American communities. Yes I agree the incarceration due to drugs is worse among people of color as they are more likely to be caught for a multitude of reasons.

    I have some good friends of color, most of them are immigrants from Latin America or Jamaica, they all have work ethic, they all are first generation college educated and also typically have masters degrees, and they all have successful careers. Is there racism, absolutely they are many times more likely to be stopped by the police and I have seen it first hand in the work place (mostly Indian and Asian co-workers and managers) have definitely been condescending to them. These people are very smart but the biggest factor is their values, they are more like the asian parents their kids are very obedient and it is drilled into them from a very young age they need to achieve in school.

    Are there issues around race, absolutely but the current “discussions” on race are absolutely the worst thing we can do for our country. White privilege is as farcical as the NYTimes series the 1612 project which is simply intellectually dishonest. The worst thing about the liberal elite is I think they are secretly racist, my in-laws are bleeding heart liberals but any interactions with black people who are not intellectuals are super weird, awkward for everyone.

    The whole white privilege thing messes kids up, it is not a good thing. We should really be talking about why people respond the way they do, here’s a hint you are wired to, much the same way children when they are born look like their fathers. Tribalism is an animal/human trait that is only broken through education and experiences with people who are different. Racism is merely an extension of tribalism. It takes a lot to break thousands of years of evolution and go back and see my post about the masses, most aren’t enlightened see what happened with the slave trade, genocides, etc. People are all to willing to do horrible things to people they view as outsiders especially if their community has consensus on it(it is a powerful thing, humans are also evolutionarily pre-disposed to follow).

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