C19 Open Discussion Week 6b

From MarketWatch:

Existing-home sales slump 8.5% in March — but the worst is yet to come as the coronavirus hits the U.S. housing market

Sales of previously-owned homes slid 8.5% in March as the coronavirus pandemic began to exert pressure on the U.S. real estate market.

Existing-home sales occurred at a seasonally-adjusted annual pace of 5.27 million, the National Association of Realtors reported Tuesday. March represented a major reversal from the month prior, which featured the strongest sales figure for the month of February since 2007.

Despite the slowdown on a monthly basis, existing-home sales still occurred at a 0.8% faster pace than a year ago, representing the ninth consecutive month in which sales were higher year-over-year.

“Unfortunately, we knew home sales would wane in March due to the coronavirus outbreak,” said Lawrence Yun, the National Association of Realtors’ chief economist. “More temporary interruptions to home sales should be expected in the next couple of months, though home prices will still likely rise.”

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170 Responses to C19 Open Discussion Week 6b

  1. Chicago says:

    FRIST.

  2. Good Dog says:

    Alex Azar appointed a guy with no public health experience to be his wing man. Perhaps Mr. Azar’s missteps can be attributed to barking up the wrong tree.

    https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-usa-hhschief-speci/special-report-hhs-chief-azar-had-aide-former-dog-breeder-steer-pandemic-task-force-idUSKCN2243CE

    “Shortly after his televised comments, Azar tapped a trusted aide with minimal public health experience to lead the agency’s day-to-day response to COVID-19. The aide, Brian Harrison, had joined the department after running a dog-breeding business for six years. Five sources say some officials in the White House derisively called him “the dog breeder.”

  3. Juice Box says:

    Had the electrician by today, he took advantage of PPP, his crew is getting paid even though all commercial work is stopped under exec orders. Small business with a few crews but in that business it takes more than a decade to get a real crew together. He feels the same way I do furloughs and layoffs are going to hurt most established business stay afloat, anyone not getting paid will look elsewhere.

    It was an “emergency” for me so he could come by, real deal is I am looking at a heat pump for my pool, turns out the 150 ft trench for a 220v sub-panel alone cost more than any kind of savings vs gas.

  4. Deadconomy says:

    Switching to Electric Vehicles Will Ruin Our Roads Without a Gas Tax Replacement
    What good are electric vehicles if our bridges and roads are still falling apart?

    https://apple.news/ADyILrJzURiq9vhIMXIIUtw

  5. Deadconomy says:

    “So the next time you are waiting at a stoplight behind a 5,400-pound Tesla Model X 100D and a 5,300-pound Chevy Tahoe, take a moment to consider that while the Tesla might look like the future, only the Tahoe is paying to fix that pothole waiting for you on the next block. And fixing this situation will come down to how much pain we’re all willing to live with.”

  6. joyce says:

    How often do people usually speak with their financial advisors?

    leftwing says:
    April 22, 2020 at 8:21 pm
    Re: Loeffler, the misinformation is mind boggling…..

    Her investments were managed by outside advisers. No input from her or her husband. Horrible slam job, zero fact checking by Daily Beast. But, hey, why let facts get in the way of a good political lynching….

    https://www.wsj.com/articles/i-never-traded-on-confidential-coronavirus-information-11586365056?mod=opinion_lead_pos6

  7. joyce says:

    Assumed office January 6
    Zero transactions reported between January 6 and January 23
    Senate Health Committee on January 24
    29 stock transactions between January 24 and February 14
    27 sales
    2 purchases (Citrix, Oracle)

    I think it’s more than fair to ask questions given those facts.

  8. Chicago says:

    Joyce: I’m with you. The billshit-o-meter on full alarm

  9. Chicago says:

    This has led some to spec­u­late that, hav­ing re­signed him­self to an un­con­tain­able epi­demic, Mr. Xi sought to make sure other coun­tries weren’t spared so China wouldn’t be uniquely dis­ad­van­taged. Your ar­rival in the world must have been re­cent if you think politi­cians not ca­pa­ble of such cyn­i­cism, es­pe­cially when op­er­at­ing un­der an au­thor­i­tar­ian, com­mu­nist, one-party po­lit­i­cal sys­tem.

    https://thediplomat.com/2020/04/did-xi-jinping-deliberately-sicken-the-world/

  10. libturd says:

    Juice. Get a good bubble wrap solar water cover. Those things are amazing. You’ll use so much less gas, you won’t complain about it. A good one will raise the temperature about three degrees a day.

  11. Blue Ribbon Teacher says:

    I don’t know why people are flipping the sh1t about Georgia opening up. Are they being stupid and early? Probably. But they are the beta tester and we can make better decisions for our own state if they f*** up.

  12. grim says:

    She passed away on February 6th – which would have had to mean coronavirus was in the country weeks earlier.

    Or, from a mathematical perspective, for her to have died on the 6th, there must have been dozens (if not hundreds) of others infected.

  13. A Home Buyer says:

    Which indirectly means this went unnoticed in California for 3 to 4 weeks with zero precautions in place.

    How does that happen given what we are seeing now?

    It’s almost like if we didn’t know to test for it … We wouldn’t notice anything different.

  14. A Home Buyer says:

    I mean, California should have be like new York, currently is, except hit that point 4 weeks ago.

    And yet no one noticed it.

  15. grim says:

    Completely anecdotal, but California people seem to be healthier, younger, more fit. It’s certainly possible that we saw larger asymptomatic spread. The cali antibody testing certainly seems to point to it being far more widespread.

  16. grim says:

    It’s almost like if we didn’t know to test for it … We wouldn’t notice anything different.

    50% of NJ tests are covid negative.

    That leads me to believe there is a huge amount of psychosomatic cases.

  17. grim says:

    Keep in mind that my opinion of California is based on the summer I spent on Pacific Beach in San Diego when I was at UCSD.

    I’d make a comment about the people at Pacific Beach, but I’m pretty sure it’s not legal to make comments like that anymore. Hot damn though.

  18. aj says:

    NJ and NY seem to have very comparable obesity rates as California. Now the middle of the country, that’s another story, and where once this COVID19 thing gets going could see a major crisis. Looking at the map on this link, you’d think obesity was a disease that was carried by the Mississippi.

    https://www.cdc.gov/obesity/data/prevalence-maps.html

  19. D-FENS says:

    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-04-22/mcconnell-says-he-favors-allowing-states-to-declare-bankruptcy

    Later, on Fox News, McConnell said that any state or local aid must be specifically linked to the pandemic and shouldn’t be viewed as an opportunity for “revenue replacement.”

    “We’re not interested in solving their pension problems for them,” McConnell said. “We’re not interested in rescuing them from bad decisions they’ve made in the past. We’re not going to let them take advantage of this pandemic to solve a lot of problems that they created for themselves with bad decisions in the past.”

    The idea of allowing states to file for bankruptcy was raised in the wake of the last recession. It drew widespread disdain from Wall Street investors, public employee unions and both Republican and Democratic governors, who said it would unsettle the bond market and cause even the most fiscally sound states to face higher interest rates because of the risk the debt could be wiped out in court.

  20. grim says:

    Murphy will start to change his tune when he is faced with actually pulling the trigger on laying off tens of thousands of NJ employees.

    It will come to a head when local governments begin to lay off teachers and police.

    Pension payments won’t be made, clearly, and I suspect there will be serious discussions of raiding the pensions.

  21. grim says:

    Most of the dem governors are going to start to change their tune on reopening at that point.

    When it impacts someone else’s business, not sure they care. When it reflects on their public opinion numbers and re-election, they’ll care.

  22. Fast Eddie says:

    By tomorrow, NJ will lead the nation in daily new cases. NY is dropping like a rock and we are at the steady ~ 3,500 new cases daily. Either our testing is far superior and accurate or the citizens of the People’s Republic of NJ are arrogant and entitled.

  23. grim says:

    Pretty sure that it will be identified that NJ’s healthcare workers, healthcare facilities, doctors/offices and related professions, were the major transmission vector. In addition, it’s highly likely that police and other public workers were also major transmission vectors.

    Not politically correct.

  24. FakeNewsHoaxes says:

    When the conclusions are drawn, I think a lot of the blame for the debacle in ny will end up being placed on de Blasio.

    While the virus was spreading like wildfire, he was telling New Yorkers to go on with their lives. He went to the gym on March 16th the same day as the school closure. the virus was spreading for weeks no precautions were taken.

    Pretty clearly he was negligent. it gives you a glimpse of what may have transpired st the national level if we had a community organizer running the show.

    When you combine that with the transit usage in the tristate you get the conflagration we have today.

  25. Deadconomy says:

    But you bailed out businesses and individuals for trillions of dollars. You are a POS. So f’ing biased. Can’t do the right thing because your power comes from bashing govt workers and blue states. Get a life!! Show some empathy and common sense.

    The states are the children of the FED, you must protect workers from being robbed by politicians. Where did all this money go from not making payments? That’s right, into the pockets of connected friends of politicians who provided the politicians with bribes for diverting money from the pension fund to their pockets. That’s a lot of money they robbed.

    At the end of the day, this is people’s retirement. How are you not going to bail it out after it was robbed by the govt?

    “We’re not interested in solving their pension problems for them,” McConnell said. “We’re not interested in rescuing them from bad decisions they’ve made in the past. We’re not going to let them take advantage of this pandemic to solve a lot of problems that they created for themselves with bad decisions in the past.”

  26. Phoenix says:

    “By tomorrow, NJ will lead the nation in daily new cases. NY is dropping like a rock and we are at the steady ~ 3,500 new cases daily.”

    Ny never flattened the curve, they were more of a spike.

    NJ on the other hand flattened the curve, it’s at a plateau and will be for quite some time until it begins to drop. It’s what you expect to happen.

  27. Deadconomy says:

    And not to beat a dead horse, but the fed is responsible and accountable for the states. If the states robbed pension funds and now can’t pay it, guess who is responsible? That’s right, Mitch, the fed. And this happened under your watch, but you turned a blind eye.

  28. Phoenix says:

    “At the end of the day, this is people’s retirement. How are you not going to bail it out after it was robbed by the govt?”

    Should of been a cop, pumps. Their check will always cash. Ultimately they are the enforcers aka top dog.

    Teachers, not so much….

  29. Deadconomy says:

    And Murphy absolutely is playing this right. Lay off all the govt workers, this is on the fed. When enough people are hurting, the fed will have no choice but to clean up the mess of its children (states) that it turned a blind eye to for over 20 years.

  30. grim says:

    Flattening the curve means the duration is longer, not shorter.

    It also does not mean that fewer people die, it just means we spread the death out over a longer duration.

  31. Deadconomy says:

    Phoenix, doesn’t that highlight the criminal activity surrounding the pensions? Of course the police pension is fine and didn’t get raided? I wonder why? Maybe it’s a criminal act and they were smart enough to keep the law enforcement on their side.

    And the comical part…the police are the ones with the lavish pension. Retire early, and get a high percentage of their paycheck in comparison to other govt workers, yet their fund is the only one in good shape. People are such crooks.

  32. Hold my beer says:

    Got me a lodge made in the USA cast iron skillet yesterday From amazon and seasoned it. Fried 2 eggs in it this morning. Tasty and non stick. Just ordered 2 more cast iron pieces since they are on sale on amazon.

    Throwing out my non stick ceramic made in China junky pan I got a year ago. Got more carbon than a coal mine on it

    Meanwhile my 50+ year old revereware pot and pan set made in the USA still works great

  33. Fast Eddie says:

    Flattening the curve means the duration is longer, not shorter.

    I’m well aware of the dynamics of it all. I’m wondering how other states are beginning to decline and we’re still at a plateau. If NY spiked, why didn’t we? Though, I will say that it seems Bergen County is slowing considerably. As for the rest of the state? I have no idea.

  34. homeboken says:

    Dead – I think you are making a false equivalency here:

    The stimulus/bailout money is to keep people working today. The CARES Act and PPP has the primary goal of funding TODAY’s financial shortfalls.

    McConnel’s point (again I don’t like the guy but he is right on this) – Teachers still have a job today. Teaching as a profession probably has the lowest unemployment rate of any other industry in the country.

    So you have your job today and want your pension so you can retire in the future? Meanwhile, you want to achieve that by taxing the 26+mm unemployed people today so you can retire in 10, 20, 30 years.

    I understand how frustrating it must be for you. You had a contract and the counter-party is failing to perform under the agreement. That blows. It seems like a tough call but really, it is going to be impossible to convince the majority that we all need to bailout the teachers retirement system when the people you need to pay that shortfall do not have a job.

    As for the funds being looted for years, that is horrible. I agree. But it won’t be enough to get any unemployed non-teacher to take even more pain today, so you can retire on time, years from now.

  35. Phoenix says:

    HMB,
    You have a link to that sale? I don’t even get sales anymore from Amazon.

    Have a 12″ Lodge and really want a smaller one as well.

  36. Phoenix says:

    And pumps,
    Not only do workers who are not working right now have to find ways to survive, they also have 401k’s that are in the toilet, so their goes their retirement. And many don’t have health insurance now like you do. Guess how much to keep one torso alive on a ventilator in an ICU for 3 weeks, you are talking 750k to 1 mil per head. Just wait till that bill arrives in the mail.

    Most individuals do not have Kelly Loeffler’s “advisers” that gave her a heads up on what to sell and what to buy….

  37. Deadconomy says:

    Home, as I stated yesterday, people are selfish and won’t care. I know this. Really, this should be about doing the right thing. If you support Mitch, you support the govt robbing innocent hard working individuals of their contractually agreed retirement. Why honor contracts? They don’t matter, right? So why am I paying my mortgage? Why honor any contract if your life long contract was ripped up in your face, and you were told to be happy you have a job. Doesn’t work like that…

    Result of this? You will have legions of angry teachers flipping out till justice is served. Nothing scares a politician more than a bunch of angry teachers robbed of their retirement fund. You saw what happened two years ago with underpaid teachers in red states, imagine what will happen with this.

  38. Phoenix says:

    “You will have legions of angry teachers flipping out till justice is served.”

    They will only flip out until the other government entity, the police department, show up.
    Then they will go home with their tails between their legs like everyone else.

  39. 30 year realtor says:

    From the article, “home prices will still likely rise”. When we are having an economy still impacted by social distancing and ongoing outbreaks of the virus? All indications are that we will be going through this cycle for as long as 2 years. Yun is just plain irresponsible!

  40. Juice Box says:

    Lab confirmed covid19 deaths in NJ.

    Age bracket Percentage
    80+ 45.5%
    65‐79 33.0%
    50‐64 16.6%
    30‐49 4.5%
    18‐29 0.5%
    5‐17 0%
    0‐4 0%

  41. Deadconomy says:

    Phoenix, you are right. Just a sad situation.

    Oh well, I will be fine, but I do feel bad for a lot of my co-workers who will not be able to survive. My one co-worker has three kids with no husband. Mine as well shoot her dead after she is done working. Others are like Blue, kids and one earner household. Only problem, they are not as thrifty as him. They are absolutely f’ed.

    It’s easy to ignore when you hate govt workers. When you pull the veil away, these are regular people. They took the job thinking they would have health insurance and a pension. Really messed up to make them pay for others retirement and then pull the rug out from underneath them. At least let them stop contributing 9% of their pay to the pension fund, and instead, let them contribute to their own retirement fund. It’s really sad that people turn a blind eye to this sh!t because it’s not them.

  42. Deadconomy AKA Pumps says:

    Pumps, why don’t you get your tag back?? Instead of using fake names…
    Are you a govt employee??. I think the cops and other essential workers should get some bailout… But not the rest with big fat pension….

    Whatz your Zillow value for your home@wayne??… 5% down??

    Is your tenant @clifton still paying??

    It also looks like people are fleeing NY and might be the prices along Route 3/46 and Wayne will go up..

  43. Hold my beer says:

    Phoenix

    I ordered this one today. 10.5″ square grill pan. On sale for $19.87 prime. It’s got raised ribs.

    Lodge 10.5 Inch Square Cast Iron Grill Pan. Pre-seasoned Grill Pan with Easy Grease Draining for Grilling Bacon, Steak, and Meats.

    This 10.25″ one is on sale for $14.88. Theres a drop down menu on the listing for different sizes. I’m cheap so I only bought the sizes on sale

    Lodge L8SK3 Cast Iron Skillet and Ready for Stove Top or Oven Use, 10.25″, Black

  44. homeboken says:

    Pumpkin – Again you are missing my point. I understand you have a “life-long” contract but nothing is EVER fully guaranteed.

    Here is where we are now, who is in the worse position.

    1. Worker 1 – No job, 401k in toilet, if it exists at all.
    2. Teacher 2 – Job safe, salary same. Pension in toilet, may not exist at all.

    My point is – The time to bail out Person A’s retirement is not when Person B has no job to pay for it.

    Blood, stones, etc.

  45. Deadconomy says:

    I am employed by the board of Ed at a local level, but I’m being robbed at the state level. Forced to pay almost 10% of my pay to crooks. Not a damn thing I can do about it as I’m legally forced to pay. Legally forced to get robbed. What a joke.

    My tag is dead. The Great Pumpkin got destroyed by this virus. RIP

  46. Juice Box says:

    Hospitalized for Covid19 for NJ by age group

    Age bracket percentage
    80+ 67.6%
    65‐79 54.2%
    50‐64 25.6%
    30‐49 14.7%
    18‐29 0.5%
    5‐17 0%
    0‐4 20%

  47. Hold my beer says:

    I just cooked bacon in it. Fast and delicious.

  48. Deadconomy says:

    Home, all workers should rise up. Say that I’m not going to do this anymore if all I do is get robbed for my effort.

    Remember, people were totally getting robbed late 1800’s and early 1900’s. They had enough, and did something about it. We need to do the same. It’s time… don’t let a good crisis go to waste.

    It will hurt me, but reset housing prices and tell the boomers to have a taste of their own medicine.

  49. homeboken says:

    DeadPumpkin – There is a way to bounce from this, we may even be able to save some of your future pension dollars. It’s a very simple fix but for some reason, it is viewed as an immoral decision.

    The answer – Open the schools, let the parents get back to work. That work generates tax revenue, it increases the value of the securities in the pension pool.

    Shutting down the economy has already and will continue to decimate workers and entire industries, the longer it stays closed.

    Yet the mere mention of “Maybe we can get back to work and manage the virus better than we did in Jan/Feb” gets you tagged as a corporate fanatic. HEartless 1%er that is willing to trade death for Dow points.

    It’s astounding.

  50. leftwing says:

    “How often do people usually speak with their financial advisors?”

    At that level of wealth, more than $500 million, not as frequently as you would think.

    Certainly not about several individual stock positions that in the aggregate represent less than 1/2 of 1%. And that’s the gross position. The “loss avoidance” is even less.

    Generational wealth like hers is much more managed and macro.

  51. Deadconomy says:

    Cut off the pensions of current retirees. Use the surplus to pay back current workers that never collected and only contributed. Boomers created this, now you get a taste of the pain. This is exactly what you are doing to current workers. Fair is fair.

  52. Yo! says:

    How does one make money in NJ real estate in this environment? Buy houses from clueless institutions!

  53. Deadconomy says:

    I agree, open up the economy. Print up money and use inflation to pay down debts. Inflation is the only way for everyone to share in the pain. So let’s hit reset button by printing away, then work hard to kill the pain. We all created this mess, we all should suffer the consequences….not select groups.

  54. 30 year realtor says:

    Yo,

    Care to expand on buying houses from clueless institutions? I am looking for opportunities. No problem with you earning commissions.

  55. Juice Box says:

    Dead – To his credit State Senate President Stephen Sweeney has been trying to reform the system this year, he knows it will collapse and he is being fought tooth and nail by his own party and our Governor. He has proposed a constitutional amendment to bypass the governor.

    Examples:

    Shift all state and local government employees and retiree’s health care coverage from Platinum to Gold.

    Merge the School Employees Health Benefits Program into the larger State Health Benefits Plan and make the plans identical in coverage.

    Cap accrued terminal leave payouts for state and local retirees at $7,500 or the amount currently earned, and makes those payments based on average career salary.

    Merge all K-4, K-5, K-6, K-8, and K-9 school districts into K-12 regional districts to improve the quality of education and promote efficiency.

    Here is just some of the legislation he has sponsored this year something like 27 reform Bills introduced.

    Will any pass this year even with the budge disaster we are now facing? I think we are going to go under like Detroit and it will all be left up to a Judge to sort out.

    http://pathtoprogressnj.org/proposals/education-reform-at-the-administrative-level/

  56. leftwing says:

    “Completely anecdotal, but California people seem to be healthier, younger, more fit. It’s certainly possible that we saw larger asymptomatic spread. The cali antibody testing certainly seems to point to it being far more widespread.”

    Density and proximity are major causes. Lack of subways, a car culture that avoids other mass transit options, and an outdoor (population dispersed) lifestyle…all common sense items which drove me nuts when idiot governors closed beaches and parks….

    Compare that to NJ density profile. And to the nursing homes where this is running rampant. Want the virus? Lock yourself up in close proximity to other people. Want to avoid it? Distance yourself outside.

  57. ExEssex says:

    What type of experience do you have to lead this pandemic…..?

    Well, I raised Labradoodles.

  58. Deadconomy says:

    Juice, I don’t trust them. What happened to the 2011 reforms? Nothing more than a gimmick to get existing workers to pay more to support current retirees. I remember Christie saying that if we do this, the pensions will be fine. Well, can’t get workers to pay anymore as 9% on top of high premiums with insurance costs them over 20% of their pay. How much more can you get from them when you are already taking over 20% of their pay for healthcare and pension.

  59. Deadconomy says:

    And pension they will not be getting… so basically over 20% of your pay towards healthcare. F’ing criminal.

  60. leftwing says:

    “Meanwhile my 50+ year old revereware pot and pan set made in the USA still works great”

    Still remember that huge galloping horse sign on top of the factory. Company bankrupted in the early 80s competing with cheap, poorly made overseas copper and aluminum products.

    https://merryatsyracuse.blogspot.com/2013/10/revere-copper-brasss-iconic-sign-in.html

  61. Deadconomy says:

    So they can’t get the workers to pay anymore out of pocket. So now the solution is to cut the benefits. How many times can you rob the same worker? Holy crap!!

    And dumb joe public thinks the teachers have it so good. Open up your eyes for god’s sake.

  62. ExEssex says:

    Awwww quit bellyaching pumps.

  63. Deadconomy says:

    I’m done…over it. Obviously, it boils my blood when I think about it.

  64. JCer says:

    On Loeffler and financial advisors. I guess first things first it would be good to understand the structure. Typically most “financial advisors” even many servicing high net worth clientele are sales people first and foremost. Were these positions in SMA’s or UMA’s in which case independent money managers who have no contact with the client whatsoever were handling the transactions? Even if these were broker managed accounts, in most major firms the brokers typically are forced to trade in strategies/models….in which case this is a bigger issue because if the broker was tipped by the client I’d suspect many of the accounts managed by this broker would have also dumped the same stocks. If these were indeed discretionary accounts at the firm I’d ask who had trading discretion?

    On how often high net worth clients speak to their advisers, not too often maybe an annual or bi-annual meeting especially in cases of inherited wealth. In the case of someone with 500m or more the client almost never speaks to the advisors, they usually have a trusted manager who handles all of their finances including day to day interactions with the financial advisers.

  65. JCer says:

    Or even better a family office……

  66. Deadconomy says:

    Hmmm… the PLOT thickens… and apparently so does the blood. This is pretty crazy.

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2020/04/22/coronavirus-blood-clots/

  67. Hold my beer says:

    leftwing

    I think once estate sales start up again there will be a flood of vintage kitchen items available in North Jersey.

    My set was a gift from older relatives who got it new in the early 60’s and needed the space after spending big bucks on a set of all clad or something like that. we use the revere ware every day and it still works great.

  68. FakeNewsHoaxes says:

    The union breeds the entitlement mentality. Njea slogan should be gimme, gimme, gimme. Those reds aren’t going to hit the streets, they are right in the crosshairs of the covid demographic.

    What I think will be most interesting about the school shutdown will be what happens to the standard test scores. Down, no change, or up. My guess it will be a combination of the three bases upon parental involvement.

  69. joyce says:

    Is there an updated chart somewhere about NJ discharges vs hospitalizations? The one from a few days looked promising but not sure if the trend continued or reversed.
    https://www.northjersey.com/story/news/coronavirus/2020/04/18/nj-coronavirus-deaths-climb-4-070-hospitalizations-decrease/5159528002/

    I looked at the gov dashboard and can’t find it.

  70. 3b says:

    30 year: I think it’s more than social distancing. It’s confidence too. Even for people who still have jobs, how many are going to want to spend 400 to 500k plus double digit property taxes in an ordinary Bergen Co town.

  71. 3b says:

    Some New Yorkers who may be fleeing or thinking about fleeing to north Jersey will be very surprised when they find out just how densely crowded it is out here.

  72. JCer says:

    Pumps, this was never a simple respiratory disease and the medical establishment has it’s head up it’s butt. As early as February there was research coming out of China that this disease has a blood component to it, it severely reduces the O2 carrying capacity of the blood by binding with hemoglobin(or at least that’s the theory). There are ACE2 receptors all over your body, yes it hits the lungs first but once the Virus is in your body and the longer it is there it attacks, the GI tract, the liver, the testicles, the immune system(t-cells). There are also multiple way the virus kills(cytokine storms in healthy younger people and those with genetic disposition, cardiac from the stress of low O2 overworking the cardiovascular system, and low O2 induced organ failure where your body shuts down from lack of oxygen).

  73. Yo! says:

    30, what counties u looking at buying?

  74. Deadconomy says:

    There is not a person alive that doesn’t carry this mindset. Hate on the teachers and their union all you want, they are just playing the same game as everyone else, but they were just smarter to go about it as a large unit.

    FakeNewsHoaxes says:
    April 23, 2020 at 11:06 am
    The union breeds the entitlement mentality. Njea slogan should be gimme, gimme, gimme.

  75. Deadconomy says:

    Jcer, I don’t know much about viruses. That being said, this is starting to sound pretty scary to me. What happens if this mutates to a stronger more efficient killer, it sure seems like it has the tools and avenues to do it. They mutate, right? The second wave might be deadly.

  76. FakeNewsHoaxes says:

    I don’t hate on teachers, I respect them. The union bred entitlement mentality is another matter. And large bargaining units are great for the underperformers but if you had a clue you would realize everyone else gets screwed in the long run.

  77. 30 year realtor says:

    Yo,

    Bergen, Passaic, Union, Hudson, Essex, Morris, Hunterdon, Somerset

  78. Phoenix says:

    HMB
    Thanks. Placed an order myself.

  79. PensionsAreStillGoingToFailAnyWay says:

    Don’t forget that interest rates on bonds are also too low to support the solvency of pensions funds. Decades ago you could get 7% on a 10 to 30 year bond and now you get .60 to 1.19. Pensions are starving for yield with 50% of the fund invested in bonds and can’t survive in this low interest rate environment. Your pension is structurally designed to fail at these rates of return.

  80. Blue Ribbon Teacher says:

    The risk of mutation isn’t likely to morph it into a more deadly virus. The inherent functionality of it is likely to remain in intact. SARS was much more deadly than this. That is why we were able to contain it very easily. The virus’s inherent strength is in the fact that is that it is not that deadly and for a large amount of the population, doesn’t invoke symptoms. That’s what allows it to travel silently through several people.

    When someone has the flu, you tell them to get the hell away from you. You are likely not aware that the person next to you would have the Wuhan virus.

    Every single RNA virus mutates. It’s minor mutations within the genetic code that don’t affect the overall functionality of the virus itself. Those mutations make may make it unrecognizable to the antibodies. It’s analogous to you putting on glasses to try to avoid being noticed. You are still the same person but in disguise. What is probably the most reassuring thing is that if you were asymptomatic or beat the virus very easily, you should also have a similar experience with any mutations.

  81. leftwing says:

    LOL. Fcuking WHO and China.

    WHO inadvertently dropped negative preliminary data on Gilead’s Remdesivir therapy from the Chinese study.

    Blew the market up.

    I always hated bureaucrats, especially global ones, because they are totally fcuking incompetent.

    But credit given where credit due….I began legging into a SPY put spread for Friday starting an hour and a half ago. Long leg was on, was managing very closely to put on the short. Idiots at WHO moved the option over two bucks in the span of three minutes. 5% gain to my IRA portfolio – that’s the entire portfolio, not the position. Fcuking A. LMFAO. Just fcuking speechless. I truly don’t know how to feel.

  82. Hold my beer says:

    Harbin is under lockdown. The CCP is blaming a returning NYU student for this even though she went through a 14 day quarantine and tested negative for both corona and the antibody test

  83. Deadconomy says:

    Interesting, so the fed reserve had a hand in this too. They created a low interest environment to bail out the corporations throwing the pension funds in front of the bus.

    Dumb workers…you never had a chance.

  84. Deadconomy says:

    Blue,

    I don’t know what to think with this virus. Worry or not to worry? It seems like from what you say, not worth worrying about it.

    They won’t bail out pensions, but they will destroy the economy to save some lives. Got it.

  85. Fast Eddie says:

    Pumpkin,

    Please stop posting so much, you’re ruining this forum. It was so nice to read the exchanges for a few weeks and now you’re back to your psychotic, non-stop, multiple ramblings. I really don’t give a f.uck if I’m being insensitive or your feelings are hurt. Please let the others exchange their ideas.

  86. PensionsAreStillGoingToFailAnyWay says:

    Teachers should consider themselves lucky that half of their fund is invested in stocks which is helping to keep their fund afloat. Social security goes 100% into bonds making that fund in even worse shape.

    It is not just corporations. Governments keep rolling forward their debt and can continue to do so as long as interest rates are at these low levels. Let interest rates go back to 7% and it will destroy government budgets due to interest rate expenditures. The value of the bonds would also collapse. Governments are trapped in this low interest rate environment. Your pension can’t survive.

  87. Deadconomy says:

    Sorry. Message understood. Not here to do that again.

  88. Not So pumpkin At Deadconomy says:

    Pumps,

    You went from a Brash, proud Wayne homeowner, BMW driving, Real estate investing mogul, 2020 – 2030 roaring economy, super confident

    TO

    Pessimistic, bitching about some state pension

    What happened in 4 months?? All OK??

  89. Hold my beer says:

    Phoenix

    No problem

    I just made corn bread in it. So much better than a regular pan.

  90. Hold my beer says:

    Fast Eddie

    Any targets near you? Target has same and next day delivery now.

  91. JCer says:

    Pumps, the virus has already mutated to a more virulent form it is the one we are seeing on the east coast and in Italy, there were 2 different types of strains in Wuhan. The research in China indicated that one type was a more efficient replicator than the other in in vitro testing. The earlier virus is the one circulating in CA and in Italy and the East coast we have the more virulent form.

    On the Chinese study on Remdesivir, I don’t trust it. It strikes me that they are doing the same thing with HCL trials/studies/tests. When you give an antiviral to a person whose organs are failing/damaged or to someone whose immune system is spinning out of control the result isn’t likely to change, the patient will die. One issue with COVID is if your body does not manage to fight the virus relatively early it can and will attack you immune system, COVID can deactivate T-Cells.

    On the virus I think there are two factors to worry about. If you are one of the people who are genetically predisposed you likely will suffer a cytokine storm and organ failure. If you are old or otherwise unhealthy(immunocompromised, underlying conditions, et al). Otherwise it is a strange version of the flu, you feel bad but get better in a few weeks. On the genetic disposition I suspect Italians are actually more impacted than others(based on the death toll in Italy) and by extension so are Ashkenazi Jews, just a hunch I have no data to back that up. Ashkenazi Jews have a strong European genetic component from Central Italy dating from the Roman Empire.

  92. zapaza-19 says:

    I use the Lodge Fajita set for broiling fresh seafood. Preheat the skillet in your closed grill until it fully heats up. Then spray the grill with oil, place that nice fillet down and wait until the flesh is near flaking off. Then take that skillet and put it on the wooden base that comes with it, in front of you on the dinner table. Fish stays hot all throughout the mail.

    As an endorsement, I have many of their products. Did but the 5qt Dutch oven last week at target. Would have bought the double-Dutch instead, but didn’t know about it until couple days ago. Don’t buy their 6qt oven – made in China and inferior. Their Amazon codes even note the China label. Read the reviews. USA vs. China made. Restaurant Depot also stocks many Lodge items

  93. leftwing says:

    Jcer, any good source material on two strains? Not challenging, just looking for info.

    Chinese remdesivir study not valid. Never hit enrollment. Still, I’ll take the win, as I’ve always maintained better to be lucky than smart. Point for me twofold…the valuable one is the predictive value of how Tx news moves markets…the lol observation of WHO/China total incompetence that I’m sure won’t be MSM covered as such

  94. zapaza-19 says:

    BTW, concerning Restaurant Depot, I have read that they are temporarily open to the public. Take a trip there, if you can, to check out where the restaurant people get a lot of their stuff. It may be eye opening, though, to see what food products they sell you that can be passed off as authentic cuisine.

  95. Deadconomy says:

    Jcer,

    Always love your posts. Thanks for the insight. Helps me to understand…

  96. Nomad says:

    HMB,

    Try one of the carbon steel pans. They are great too. Lodge has them but the European ones are supposed to be better. Mafter Bourgeat, De Buyer & Mauviel.

    Here is a great video from Cooks Illustrated reviewing several. Since the handles are longer than cast iron, they talk about the ergonomics of it. I bought a commercial hot glove (San Jamar – Amazon) with a longer sleeve so as not to burn my forearm when removing from the oven. Try one, they are fun to use and the food is incredible.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-suTmUX4Vbk

  97. Deadconomy says:

    Not so,

    I watched an economy fall apart in a blink of an eye. It has broken me…

    I truly believed in that economy and was completely blindsided. Should have known when they were dropping rates and saving the RICO market, but I was blinded by the light… bright shiny light, so shiny (homer Simpson voice)

  98. Dink says:

    The deadly virus is spreading rapidly and is out of control.

  99. Deadconomy says:

    How does Europe pull this off, but we can’t?

    “”What it means is that people remain on the books. … They keep receiving their salaries,” Zucman says. “And when social distancing ends, they will just return to work, as if they had been on a long, government-paid leave.”
    It’s much more humane than in the United States, where some 26 million workers have lost their jobs over the past five weeks, Zucman says. Under the American system, workers are typically fired. They file for unemployment benefits and have to look for new work, he says. Many risk losing their health insurance benefits altogether.”

    https://apple.news/A5LgT7E6bQXyCGlddILwAWw

  100. Libturd says:

    I own one superheavy Lodge skillet. It can cook two ribeyes side by side. If your recipe requires searing, you can’t do it better any other way. But you must remember to dry it and oil it after you clean it every single time. Otherwise, rust. Once you get rust, you might as well throw it in the trash.

    I have 3 T-Fal frying pans of varying sizes that I use for everything that won’t go in a pot. As long as metal never touches them and you never turn the range up over mediumhigh, the titanium non-stick surface will last for years. No dishwasher either. The truth is, they clean up with one wipe. The three pans together cost about $40.

    Way back when, I used to invest in high end Cuisinart and All Clad. Their non-stick is no better than T-Fal. Probably worse. They also weigh to much to handle and flip. Now I have one large All Clad SS that I use when I am cooking non-sticky foods. Everything else goes T-Fal, in the Lodge or in the Instant Pot or air fryer, which is another gadget worth its weight in gold.

    Just remember to oil the Lodge. Mineral oil your cutting board too while you are it.

    As for the pension thing. Perhaps you would save some money if you used a plan that’s at the level that 99% of the private sector uses. Don’t complain that you are paying top dollar for your healthcare when the only other people with a plan at that level are the Congress, Senate and a few executives in Fortune 500 firms. What’s your policy on sick days? I lose them if I don’t use them. No accrual year to year. How about you? Do you get to stay home a year and get paid in full at the end of your career? And your healthcare. You get to keep it after you retire? How quaint.

  101. Nomad says:

    Apparently her stage schtick is just that. She’s no dummy. News is mostly eyeballs, clicks and no substance. It’s not really even news and the nutritional value to the brain similar to the nutritional value of McDonalds.

    https://www.thedailybeast.com/michelle-wolf-on-how-the-media-is-hopelessly-addicted-to-trump?ref=scroll

  102. Deadaconomy AKA Pumps says:

    Pumps, you have been very open about your stuff on this forum.. You have your job, house, and not selling any RE. Economy is down and might affect your pension but this isn’t the end of the world …

    Its not like you used to run a business and everything is closed.. So don’t get it you being so pessimistic.. Unless you made to serious wrong moves in stock market…

  103. Blue Ribbon Teacher says:

    Otherwise, rust. Once you get rust, you might as well throw it in the trash.

    Soak it in cider vinegar for a day then scrub with steel wool. I took an 1800s skillet that I bought at an antique that had a thick layer of rust all over. It looked brand new afterwards. I’m still using my grandfather’s skillet set.

    Here’s a good example.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PDTCgxvmShc

  104. Fast Eddie says:

    JCer,

    What line of work are you in?

  105. Deadconomy says:

    Most of the people on here know the pension issue triggers me. I guess it boils my blood that I know I’m being robbed and there isn’t anything I can do about it.

    As for the economy, I’m not a cheerleader or Debbie downer. I only go with what I see in the fundamentals I pay attention to. I still see a monster economic run based on the fundamentals for this decade. I just didn’t see this artificial punch to the gut coming. It seriously destroyed the economy in the short term. The question is, when do we hit bottom and start the engine back up. Right now is the time to start hitting up new business ideas and looking for investments. A bunch of millennials will want to buy housing as soon as this economy rebounds, and it should drive a strong economy for the rest of the decade.

    No idea what to think of the stock market at the moment. Def could see it retest lows, but at the same time, it might have bottomed. I honestly could not tell you. I’m done trying to figure out the current market and don’t want to gamble, so waiting for the storm to clear so I can jump in.

  106. Hold my beer says:

    Nomad

    Those carbon pans look good too. Torn between getting one of those or a 14″ round lodge baking pan (looks great for home made pizzas)

    Watched BRT video and realized I have a few rusty pieces of cast iron in my garage I got dirt cheap at an estate sale. If I can get some flax seed oil I can try to bring them back to life. Seem to have some time on my hands.

  107. Libturd says:

    Cool on the cider vinegar trick. Will have to try it with a few old bread pans which we have.

    Probably better than all of this stuff mentioned is an old edged cookie tray which I’ve been using my whole life. It looks like pure hell but decades of built up oil has made it unbelievably non-stick. The thing is so brown, it’s nearly black. It’s probably been Pammed 1,000 times. I only wish I had more than one as sometimes I need the extra space. Have about 8 other newer ones, but they all blow.

  108. JCer says:

    On two strains, there are now more but here is the study from wuhan….

    https://academic.oup.com/nsr/advance-article/doi/10.1093/nsr/nwaa036/5775463

    As for line of work, I’m in software in finance. So anything related to medicine is pure conjecture based on reading.

  109. ExEssex says:

    3:39 well if you really don’t believe in the pension, cash out.
    They’ll pay you a dollar figure based on your contributions.

  110. Hold my beer says:

    A friend of mine was upset that when she wore a mask in public a few weeks ago back when the government was saying don’t wear masks, someone called her an idiot. I told her maybe they recognized you.

  111. chicagofinance says:

    We have completely flattened the curve everywhere….. do you remember the panic over vents? Did we ever come even close to running out? No.

    I hate to give Trump credence, but he was right calling out Cuomo on why he asked for so many. Trump was considered a savage.

    grim says:
    April 23, 2020 at 8:56 am
    Flattening the curve means the duration is longer, not shorter.

    It also does not mean that fewer people die, it just means we spread the death out over a longer duration.

  112. chicagofinance says:

    If you have concerns about pensions, the big kahuna is Illinois & City of Chicago.

    #1 size; #2 underfunding, #3 corruption, #4 fcuked pension benefit terms

  113. Juice Box says:

    21% of people tested in New York City have antibodies for the virus ,that’s 1.8 million people

  114. chicagofinance says:

    left: that’s very interesting and true; she is also a two-faced scum and a leaker….. she is bullsh!tting like no tomorrow….

    leftwing says:
    April 23, 2020 at 10:11 am
    “How often do people usually speak with their financial advisors?”

    At that level of wealth, more than $500 million, not as frequently as you would think.

    Certainly not about several individual stock positions that in the aggregate represent less than 1/2 of 1%. And that’s the gross position. The “loss avoidance” is even less.

    Generational wealth like hers is much more managed and macro.

  115. Deadconomy says:

    Seriously? I didn’t know about this. Are you paid interest?

    ExEssex says:
    April 23, 2020 at 4:56 pm
    3:39 well if you really don’t believe in the pension, cash out.
    They’ll pay you a dollar figure based on your contributions.

  116. chicagofinance says:

    Pumps….. are you this stupid? It’s a lump-sum payment of annuity. Interest on what? The lower the discount rate the higher the payment……

    Deadconomy says:
    April 23, 2020 at 5:45 pm
    Seriously? I didn’t know about this. Are you paid interest?

    ExEssex says:
    April 23, 2020 at 4:56 pm
    3:39 well if you really don’t believe in the pension, cash out.
    They’ll pay you a dollar figure based on your contributions.

  117. chicagofinance says:

    Ex: I think the lump-sums are not really offered. #1 too many financial predator salespeople out there, #2 at this point, I don’t think they could afford it.

  118. leftwing says:

    chi, re: loeffler maybe or maybe not. I don’t really care, I view it as a political driveby shooting and not a serious issue. She was appointed to her Senate seat and is trailing to the likely Dem candidate so the Blue team smells blood and rolls out misreporting and innuendo. Same thing Red will be doing through their press proxies in similarly situated vulnerable Blue seats.

    I guess if I have a take on the substance of the matter one just doesn’t put everything at risk for so little. Functional equivalent of you or I risking our employment, social standing, and a portion of our wealth for just a few grand. Smart people don’t take such ridiculously skewed risks for a meaningless return. Doing so would be an incredibly stupid move. Although, this theory is regularly proven wrong by some seriously mentally challenged individuals so maybe she did it. If so, arrest her for numbing stupidity, not the pocket change she stole. That would be the bigger crime lol.

  119. ExEssex says:

    6:20 I thought you could ‘cash out’ but the value was no where near what you would expect to get if you vest and live long enough.

  120. leftwing says:

    So…..Fed backstops the high yield market and issuances near a record last week ($16B) and may hit $10B this week if someone not on the calendar launches tonight/tomorrow.

    Not sure how to comment…first thought was something snarky about Wall Street or unintended consequences. But then I stopped typing since it crossed my mind that this outcome may not at all be unintended.

    Good time to be on a HY desk, stuff is flying out the door. MGM looks like it’s upsizing its deal by 50%. The GAP, yeah that GAP, issues two and a quarter billion. Boo-yah, Chairman Powell getting a couple cases of Cristal as a thank you.

  121. joyce says:

    The timing of events is too conspicuous.

    leftwing says:
    April 23, 2020 at 6:34 pm
    chi, re: loeffler maybe or maybe not.

  122. joyce says:

    Fatality rate estimation would then be ~0.005 or 0.5%. Since we know the fatalities are skewed significantly toward elderly and co-morbid, we know what we SHOULD do now (and should have done from the beginning). So, let’s do that… everyone agree?

    Yes, this is just one study. But they are others. When is NJ going to do one of their own?

    Juice Box says:
    April 23, 2020 at 5:03 pm
    21% of people tested in New York City have antibodies for the virus ,that’s 1.8 million people

  123. chicagofinance says:

    Cash out is straight up NPV….. and many discount rates are generally tied to UST 10, so with it at 0.613% it is a giveaway. Never intended to function under these conditions, but pension accounting forces you to do some version of NPV…….. that is why companies such as Boeing were crashing to the floor among other reasons. Go back to those news stories from a month ago…… see the words pension obligations in there……… and the impact is HUGE…. stunning actually….. a good number of clients who are under 65 with frozen corporate pensions have been cashing out as we have analyzed the offer through time…… this spring blew away spring 2019, and those were awesome…… anyone on the fence is saying fcuk it….. goosed lump-sum and remove the credit risk…..

    ExEssex says:
    April 23, 2020 at 6:50 pm
    6:20 I thought you could ‘cash out’ but the value was no where near what you would expect to get if you vest and live long enough.

  124. leftwing says:

    Again, joyce, doesn’t really matter that much to me.

    I truly find through long time experience that people for the most part aren’t that mind bendingly dumb.

    Reverse the risk/reward and tell me she risked a few million, employment, and family for $500m? Yeah, I’ll convict without testimony.

    Like I said, her actions are the equivalent of you being set for life and risking it all for a few grand. Doesn’t add up.

  125. Deadconomy says:

    I know…just making a point that even if they offered an out, still getting screwed.

    chicagofinance says:
    April 23, 2020 at 6:13 pm
    Pumps….. are you this stupid? It’s a lump-sum payment of annuity. Interest on what? The lower the discount rate the higher the payment……

  126. joyce says:

    I understand and agree with the concept but I think you’re overestimating the risk factor in this case.

    leftwing says:
    April 23, 2020 at 7:21 pm
    Again, joyce, doesn’t really matter that much to me.

    I truly find through long time experience that people for the most part aren’t that mind bendingly dumb.

    Reverse the risk/reward and tell me she risked a few million, employment, and family for $500m? Yeah, I’ll convict without testimony.

    Like I said, her actions are the equivalent of you being set for life and risking it all for a few grand. Doesn’t add up.

  127. Deadconomy says:

    Chi, any feeling on when the economy will rebound? I know it’s impossible to be precise, but a generalized outlook?

  128. chicagofinance says:

    yes…. besides… just ask Martha Stewart…..

    here’s the thing….. it seems like the most natural thing to do…. hey I learned something important…. let me tell the professionals…. except YOU DON’T DO IT. …. and believe me, these pricks are likely leaning on her everyday day of the week to disclose….. these are her trusted advisors….. she would want to help them…. BUT YOU DON’T DO IT…..

    joyce says:
    April 23, 2020 at 7:16 pm
    The timing of events is too conspicuous.

    leftwing says:
    April 23, 2020 at 6:34 pm
    chi, re: loeffler maybe or maybe not.

  129. chicagofinance says:

    We’re fcuked….. just remember…. the markets and the real world are related, but they are not the same thing….. there is no vaccine coming any time soon…. it wouldn’t surprise me if it was 2022….. that is not a reason to sell stocks though… let the companies report and they are the best people to listen to…..

    Deadconomy says:
    April 23, 2020 at 7:26 pm
    Chi, any feeling on when the economy will rebound? I know it’s impossible to be precise, but a generalized outlook?

  130. leftwing says:

    chi, the Stewart case supports not guilty.

    In Stewart, she received material non-public information about a specific event affecting a specific security. ImClone. Totally different here.

    Even if I grant you that she picked up the phone and instructed her broker so that she could avoid a few hundreds of thousands loss on a half a billion portfolio she would need to have material non-public information about the specific securities. For which exact securities did she receive material non-public information?

  131. Deadconomy says:

    Three Hours Longer, the Pandemic Workday Has Obliterated Work-Life Balance

    An executive at JPMorgan Chase & Co. gets unapologetic messages from colleagues on nights and weekends, including a notably demanding one on Easter Sunday. A web designer whose bedroom doubles as an office has to set an alarm to remind himself to eat during his non-stop workday. At Intel Corp., a vice president with four kids logs 13-hour days while attempting to juggle her parenting duties and her job. 

    Six weeks into a nationwide work-from-home experiment with no end in sight, whatever boundaries remained between work and life have almost entirely disappeared.
    With many living a few steps from their offices, America’s always-on work culture has reached new heights. The 9-to-5 workday, or any semblance of it, seems like a relic of a bygone era. Long gone are the regretful formalities for calling or emailing at inappropriate times. Burnt-out employees feel like they have even less free time than when they wasted hours commuting. 

    https://apple.news/A_5-RWxx7TuCXMZwUmHMJZw

  132. Deadconomy says:

    Thank you, appreciate it.

  133. Grim says:

    Yep – 12 hour days is the norm.

    I’m going on 13 or 14.

  134. joyce says:

    I haven’t read the STOCK act passed a few years ago to [finally] prevent congress from profiting from their special positions. Is the standard they’re held to the same as the regular insider trading law?

    leftwing says:
    April 23, 2020 at 7:42 pm

    chi, the Stewart case supports not guilty.

    In Stewart, she received material non-public information about a specific event affecting a specific security. ImClone. Totally different here.

    Even if I grant you that she picked up the phone and instructed her broker so that she could avoid a few hundreds of thousands loss on a half a billion portfolio she would need to have material non-public information about the specific securities. For which exact securities did she receive material non-public information?

  135. Grim says:

    Although I did log off for dinner.

  136. Fabius Maximus says:

    Juice / JCer,

    Any studies out there on injecting bleach? Asking for a friend.

    https://twitter.com/GeoffRBennett/status/1253448645921341443

  137. I have a lot of a Lodge. I love the melting pot for basting juices on the grill. I have to de-rust and reseason every now and then. It usually happens when I leave a piece on the grill after a weekend BBQ. A wire wheel in a drill speeds up the process. The dutch ovens are great for campfires, but for oven work I always go back to my LeCreusets.

  138. Fabius Maximus says:

    I’m not the busiest I’ve ever been, but it is top 10 career level busy. Saving the two hour commute helps, prepping meals while taking a conference call, the small micro breaks to do a two minute task, redirect a kid etc help a lot.

    But its still 15 hr days. Its 8pm and I’ve been going since 6am. I still have some stuff to finish up. But 5PM tomorrow I’ll shut it off for the weekend.

  139. juice box says:

    Fab sounds crazy right disinfect the lungs?

    Light Therapy far UVC light therapy is real…..

    https://www.researchgate.net/post/Far_UVC_Light_thoracoscopy_and_UBI_treatment_for_Covid-19

  140. juice box says:

    Ultraviolet Blood Irradiation (UBI)

  141. grim says:

    Wondering if at some point, some of the older generation will recognize this as being a bigger event than Vietnam, or WWII?

  142. Juice Box says:

    UBI

    Ultraviolet blood irradiation (UBI) was extensively used in the 1940s and 1950s to treat many diseases including septicemia, pneumonia, tuberculosis, arthritis, asthma and even poliomyelitis. The early studies were carried out by several physicians in USA and published in the American Journal of Surgery. However with the development of antibiotics, UBI use declined and it has now been called “the cure that time forgot”. Later studies were mostly performed by Russian workers and in other Eastern countries and the modern view in Western countries is that UBI remains highly controversial.

    https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6122858/

  143. leftwing says:

    I pulled up STOCK and glanced at it. Not going to spend a ton of time. Basically three parts: prohibiting all the preferential mortgages and the like so previously common; pulling Congress specifically under the insider trading laws from their official duties (so yes same standard); and likely the most relevant to your argument a provision that prohibits Members from making a profit from non-public information derived from their position.

    So, best case, one would need to show that she received relevant non-public information for the stocks she traded. They were retailers. Aside from that, given the situation at the time (hell, even now) how can one make an argument over proprietary information? In the last two days – three months later – we have just adjusted the infection timeline by months, still don’t know the infection rate, still haven’t received a firm number from China of their toll. There was no ‘information’. Plus, as of late January, it was well known the virus was a crises of some magnitude there and the DEMS were screaming bloody murder and getting a ton of press coverage that it was worse than indicated.

    Unless someone can demonstrate that there was non-public information disclosed to her and she shorted a China ETF and BABA, it’s a nothing burger guys.

    Picking up her phone – assuming she even did understanding that people here who have familiarity with the ultra-wealthy’s relationships with their advisers doubt would occur – and saying ‘de-risk me’ is not even close to a crime or STOCK violation.

  144. Yo! says:

    Everybody seems be giving Andrew Cuomo a lot of credit for what a great job he is doing on Covid in New York. Why hasn’t anybody asked, if NY’s governor is so great, why is his state’s infection rate the highest by far?

  145. juice box says:

    lung lavage Is a real thing too washing out lungs with Saline, Probably not tried for covid19 cases do to risk of infection.

    ”Therapeutic efficacy derives from removal of the accumulated lipoproteinaceous material – primarily surfactant and necrotic cell debris – by physically ‘washing’ the alveoli with saline. WLL is usually performed under general anesthesia with lung separation obtained by a double-lumen endobronchial tube. While mechanical ventilation is maintained in one lung, the contralateral lung is repeatedly filled with saline and then drained by gravity. Typically, the lavage is accompanied by chest percussion to emulsify the surfactant sediment, and is continued until the lavage fluid becomes clear, usually judged by visual inspection.”

  146. zapaza-19 says:

    Grim,
    These are my lifetime noted events, save personal stuff. Chronological, with current events first:

    Covid19
    9/11 – I was there, worked 1 1/2 blocks away, walked thru WTC 15 minutes before first hit. Had survivor syndrome for a while. Esophagus never the same after breathing bad air thru November
    Woodstock
    First Moon Landing
    JFK assassination

  147. juice box says:

    yo! Don’t know about Cuomo, he defends sending elderly with covid19 back to the nursing homes.

    Why did they setup all those empty beds at the Javitz for? Now the Navy ship is leaving too. They should quarantine the sick elderly in those places.

  148. joyce says:

    Breaking the law and being able to prove someone break the law are two different standards. That said, I still haven’t read the Act. You’ve put more effort into the discussion than I… ;-)

    leftwing says:
    April 23, 2020 at 8:33 pm
    I pulled up STOCK and glanced at it. Not going to spend a ton of time. Basically three parts: prohibiting all the preferential mortgages and the like so previously common; pulling Congress specifically under the insider trading laws from their official duties (so yes same standard); and likely the most relevant to your argument a provision that prohibits Members from making a profit from non-public information derived from their position.

    So, best case, one would need to show that she received relevant non-public information for the stocks she traded. They were retailers. Aside from that, given the situation at the time (hell, even now) how can one make an argument over proprietary information? In the last two days – three months later – we have just adjusted the infection timeline by months, still don’t know the infection rate, still haven’t received a firm number from China of their toll. There was no ‘information’. Plus, as of late January, it was well known the virus was a crises of some magnitude there and the DEMS were screaming bloody murder and getting a ton of press coverage that it was worse than indicated.

    Unless someone can demonstrate that there was non-public information disclosed to her and she shorted a China ETF and BABA, it’s a nothing burger guys.

    Picking up her phone – assuming she even did understanding that people here who have familiarity with the ultra-wealthy’s relationships with their advisers doubt would occur – and saying ‘de-risk me’ is not even close to a crime or STOCK violation.

  149. JCer says:

    If you want to talk treatments, I think indomethacin isn’t getting the attention it should. Nor is elderberry. Both have had successful in vivo tests on animals with other coronaviruses and have little to no typical side effects.

  150. joyce says:

    Why hasn’t anybody asked, if NY’s governor is so great, why is his state’s infection rate the highest by far?

    sarcasm, i hope?

  151. Blue Ribbon Teacher says:

    Juice / JCer,

    Any studies out there on injecting bleach? Asking for a friend.

    Funny story…I had a bad ingrown hair infection last year on my neck. It was awful. The thing would blow up and eject puss. 2 rounds of antibiotics did nothing. I had to take Bactrim for the 3rd round which fights antiobiotic resistant bacteria. Let me tell you…that crap did a number on my body that lasted for months. I never want to take antibiotics again.

    Anyway, it didn’t work. So the doctor had no idea what it was and the culture kept coming back negative. He would see me weekly and slice my neck open to let it drain. Finally, he was closed for Christmas Break until the 2nd week of January. So I just started rubbing bleach on it every day and I would squeeze the crap out of it in the shower to bust it open drain it. That worked. When I came back…he was like “it went away?”. I told him my treatment and he got pissed.

  152. Deadconomy says:

    As a history teacher, amen!!

    Some people still don’t realize it. Major change is upon us.

    “Wondering if at some point, some of the older generation will recognize this as being a bigger event than Vietnam, or WWII?”

  153. Grim says:

    Covid circulating in January in nyc

  154. leftwing says:

    “You’ve put more effort into the discussion than I… ;-)”

    Lol, touche. In serious avoidance mode for something tedious I have to do. Googling law text and watching an awful Law and Order re-run……yeah, guess I just need to man up and get sh1t done now, haha.

  155. juice box says:

    Nextstrain has an online phylogenetic tree of the virus, first cases in NY trace to Europe.As China did not share samples and only uploaded the genetic sequence online on January 13th we may never know how early it was spreading in Europe, unless they go back and test samples from people who died in December.

  156. Fabius Maximus says:

    Juice,

    This needs the Curb Your enthusiasm music.

    https://twitter.com/NC5PhilWilliams/status/1253487743046385670

  157. juice box says:

    Blue your own immune cells produce hydrogen peroxide and hypochlorous acid to kill off infections, it’s funny they mocked Trump today but he is onto something, as you body specifically white blood cells do make bleach…

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TXyumLH_xAU

  158. joyce says:

    Speaking of law and order, can we convict the senator on the basis of res ipsa loquitur (“the thing speaks for itself”)?

    leftwing says:
    April 23, 2020 at 9:53 pm
    “You’ve put more effort into the discussion than I… ;-)”

    Lol, touche. In serious avoidance mode for something tedious I have to do. Googling law text and watching an awful Law and Order re-run……yeah, guess I just need to man up and get sh1t done now, haha.

  159. Libturd says:

    BRT.

    I told you about my seasonal allergies. I am also horribly allergic to poison ivy/sumac. I get it so easily and it spreads like wildfire on me. Heck, I somehow got it on my honeymoon in Hawaii. I swear, I look at it and boom, I’m covered. Well once I had it really bad on a leg and it was such a bad case that my typical remedies weren’t doing sh1t. I poured pure bleach down my leg about three times and it dried up my ivy really well. When I told my doctor, he said it was amazing that it didn’t get infected or worse. He said I was very lucky. Be careful with bleach!

  160. Juice Box says:

    Anecdotal – now is the time to do home improvements. I had the pool contractor, electrician, plumber and landscaper all show up the same day I called looking to book work right away. No haggle needed, prices were in line, and there is no wait. Just don’t mention permits, well they aren’t doing any, inspectors are too afraid to come and do them and well as government employees they are getting paid not to.

    If you go this route take lots of pictures and document the work as an emergency.

  161. Blue Ribbon Teacher says:

    I diluted it. Basically, for certain skin ailments that are microbial based, they recommend a bleach bath. 1 cup of bleach in a full tub of water.

  162. Chicago says:

    Chicago says:
    Your comment is awaiting moderation.
    April 23, 2020 at 11:28 pm
    Left: How about her disclosing contents of meeting to advisors. Is that a breach?

    Here is the point… She does not personally need to understand the impact of the information. She just needs to disclose it to people who can use it, analyze it, and build a call to action.

    But here’s the damning thing. If there was no critical information disclosed why did multiple individuals on the same committee have the benefit of the same shrewd investment choices at coincidentally the same window of time.

    joyce says:
    April 23, 2020 at 9:20 pm
    Breaking the law and being able to prove someone break the law are two different standards. That said, I still haven’t read the Act. You’ve put more effort into the discussion than I… ;-)

    leftwing says:
    April 23, 2020 at 8:33
    Picking up her phone – assuming she even did understanding that people here who have familiarity with the ultra-wealthy’s relationships with their advisers doubt would occur – and saying ‘de-risk me’ is not even close to a crime or STOCK violation.

  163. Chicago says:

    I’m not accusing her of a crime. I’m just saying that she’s guilty of disclosing information that should not have been, by circumstantial evidence

  164. JCer says:

    I’m not sure this is a more seminal event than WWII. We will see the after effects but, the Spanish Flu pandemic was way worse. The after effects will likely indicate how significant this event is. Truth be told the things that are being cancelled or postponed were last cancelled or postponed for WWII.

  165. D-FENS says:

    I had that sh1t I just know it

    Grim says:
    April 23, 2020 at 9:43 pm
    Covid circulating in January in nyc

  166. D-FENS says:

    Reported US coronavirus deaths:

    8 weeks ago: 0 deaths
    7 weeks ago: 12 deaths
    6 weeks ago: 41 deaths
    5 weeks ago: 195 deaths
    4 weeks ago: 1,195 deaths
    3 weeks ago: 5,983 deaths
    2 weeks ago: 16,684 deaths
    1 week ago: 33,268 deaths
    Right now: 49,861 deaths

  167. BoomerRemover says:

    Juice,
    Cuomo made it a point to mention that these people were pulled out from circulation (big box stores, groceries) and not from homes. How did the authorities solicit people for this? Was this a hey you, yeah you! Get over here.

    I’d prefer the antibody tests be disposable on-site with no identifying information that is kept.

  168. BoomerRemover says:

    I drove into the city yesterday. I dropped something off in BK and then stopped on 14th to chat with a family friend. During that entire time I was in survival mode and I just could not let my guard down. Quick glance at person walking down the street, are they using the middle, will they move over, do they look like they’re adhering to rules? Glance at person crossing street on the perpendicular, measure his stride, will be cross at the same time, should I quicken my pace?

    I noticed a lot of 6′ front and back, but nobody cared about sideways separation. A woman brushed my shoulder on a narrow temporary walkway around a construction site and I almost lost it.

    The whole experience was just mentally exhausting and it can’t be just me. Consumer PTSD is a real thing and irrespective of the grand opening date, normal behavior is a long ways off.

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