From the NY Times:
Covid-19: Third U.S. Vaccine Moves Closer as Johnson & Johnson Seeks F.D.A. Green Light
Age and gender are complicating vaccine skepticism among Black Americans. Health experts warned Super Bowl fans to keep up their guard. Wisconsin had a mask mandate. Then it didn’t. Then it did. Stay tuned.
Johnson & Johnson on Thursday submitted to the Food and Drug Administration an application for emergency authorization for its one-dose coronavirus vaccine, putting the company on track to potentially begin shipping it by early March.
The agency has scheduled a meeting with its outside advisory panel, which will vote on whether the F.D.A. should authorize the vaccine on Feb. 26, according to people familiar with the planning.
That leaves regulators about three weeks to pore over a large and complex application that includes clinical and manufacturing data. A decision on whether to authorize the vaccine could come within days of that meeting.
A similar timeline was used for the review of two-dose vaccines made by Pfizer-BioNTech and Moderna, which were authorized by the F.D.A. in December.
First
AP, congrats. Personally, it’s great to have you around. I appreciate your contributions. Even if I tweaked you once or twice on the politics :)
Hope you hang around a bit, if not don’t wait a bunch of years before resurfacing again!
“You guys talk about your market antics as if you’re investing. You do know you’re all gambling, right? Or is that the objective? A gambler plays with the goal of return whereas the investor is “playing” with risk in mind.”
Eddie, I have to second Lib’s response, my trading (and especially my investing) is built around risk management….absolutely key though is to manage risk and return together. Looking at only one without regard to the other is neither investing nor trading. To me, that would be the definition of gambling.
I have an extensive trade log detailing each trade going back years that continually refines how I manage my portfolio. Over time, one of the biggest challenges to my overall returns is exiting a winning position too soon…basically, in the name of being ‘conservative’ and taking some gains I inhibit my returns…
FWIW….best investment advice I can give anyone is to trade your DNA. Know yourself. There are a myriad of ways to get to the goal, but if you try to get there by going against your personality and what fundamentally makes you tick you will be more likely to fail than succeed. Typing it, I realize that advice probably goes for most aspects of life.
Have a good day all. Off to finish clearing off the last of this week’s storm before we get hit on Sunday again and enter a deep freeze.
AP,
Don’t leave! Goonies never say die!
Left,
Solid advice.
leftwing,
Typing it, I realize that advice probably goes for most aspects of life.
Well said! Core and explore, risk management… that’s good!
That’s why Cathie woods considers Tesla an energy company as opposed to car company.
https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-battery-is-ready-to-power-the-world-11612551578?st=vxep7pawpt3pnkc&reflink=article_copyURL_share
“Prices have come down a long way since January 2010, when Boston Consulting Group estimated battery costs at between $1,000 and $1,200 per kilowatt-hour. It said getting to $250—a level car makers were targeting—“is unlikely to be achieved unless there is a major breakthrough in battery chemistry.”
Today, battery prices are about $125 per kilowatt-hour, after big increases in manufacturing capacity lowered costs, and tweaks to chemistry and design yielded further savings.”
Interesting take.
“My Bold prediction is, by 2030, Apple will be one of the top 10 most dominant companies in the automotive industry. Will they build their own car? Absolutely not. They will have partnerships with automotive manufacturers that will build the cars with Apple’s integrated technologies.
By 2030, Autonomous Electric Vehicles will be 90% of all automobiles sold. AEV’s will be totally computer driven. Apple is only interested in this part of the market. Apple will integrate it’s Operating System (IOS), with it’s advanced software, app and iCloud technologies. They have existing connections with many key (and still unknown) future suppliers in technologies that will be needed to take EV’s to the next level in completely replacing combustion vehicles. The same with making autonomous technology a true reality!
1. They have a close connection with a up and coming EV Battery super star that is one of several companies working on solid state Lithium Batteries. These batteries have 3 key characteristics that are needed in next generation batteries (much safer technology, much more powerful allowing almost twice the distance per charge as today’s top Tesla batteries, and a nearly 60% decrease in charging times).
2. Two top Apple executives left to start up a “LIDAR” laser sensing company. They are the only LIDAR company working on 4D technology. LIDAR, is already integrated in today’s cars on a tiny scale. Today’s cars use the LiDAR sensors for lane leaving detection, blind spot detection and in some cars in distance warning detection. These are just the beginning of what this laser sensing technology will be used for.
3. 5G is the main tool that will allow autonomous vehicles to become a reality. And, Apple has been working on 5G technology for several years.
These 3 things will be integrated with the Apple IOS, ICloud, Apps and software to form the most advanced AEV technology platform on earth.
It surely sounds like they will first partner up with Hyundai to build the first fully “Apple” technology built in a Hyundai chassis and frame. I believe, they will stay on this course and become a integrated AEV technology supplier to many other Automotive manufacturers. Most notably, I predict BMW and VW to also integrate the same Apple technology across their entire fleets of AEV’s.
Apple doesn’t need to build a car to become dominant in the Automotive industry. But, just like the IPhone, I believe their advanced abilities will put them in a highly profitable position owning at least 50% of the market.
I’m really curious of how accurate I will be with this prediction. Laugh if you must.”
“The U.S. Navy has patents on weird and little understood technology. According to patents filed by the Navy, it is working on a compact fusion reactor that could power cities, an engine that works using “inertial mass reduction,” and a “hybrid aerospace-underwater craft.” Dubbed the “UFO patents, The War Zone has reported that the Navy had to build prototypes of some of the outlandish tech to prove it worked.”
https://www.vice.com/en/article/4adpv9/us-navy-has-patents-on-tech-it-says-will-engineer-the-fabric-of-reality?
AP,
Awesome that you paid off your home so early. Congrats. These past few months, I have reinforced the realization, despite differences in opinion, we all have more in common with each other than most realize. It was nice to talk audio gear with you, good luck.
“As Democrats in Congress and the White House make the case for tax hikes this year, expect a lot of disinformation that will somehow escape the attention of Facebook and Twitter censors. In particular there will be voluminous and erroneous claims about the landmark 2017 Trump tax reform and its impact on wealthy filers. Therefore this is perhaps the perfect moment for a preemptive reality check.
And who better to provide it than the industrious Erica York at the Tax Foundation? This week she reports:
The Internal Revenue Service (IRS) has released data on individual income taxes for tax year 2018, showing the number of taxpayers, adjusted gross income, and income tax shares by income percentiles. The new data shows how taxes changed in the first tax year after passage of the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA) in December 2017.
The data shows that the U.S. individual income tax continued to be progressive, borne primarily by the highest income earners…
The share of reported income earned by the top 1 percent of taxpayers fell slightly, to 20.9 percent in 2018 from 21 percent in 2017. Their share of federal individual income taxes rose by 1.6 percentage points to 40.1 percent.
Since 2001, the share of federal income taxes paid by the top 1 percent increased from 33.2 percent to a new high of 40.1 percent in 2018.
In 2018, the top 50 percent of all taxpayers paid 97.1 percent of all individual income taxes, while the bottom 50 percent paid the remaining 2.9 percent.
The top 1 percent paid a greater share of individual income taxes (40.1 percent) than the bottom 90 percent combined (28.6 percent).
In sum, the richest Americans took on more of the tax burden. Meanwhile, “average tax rates fell for taxpayers across all income groups,” adds Ms. York.
That wasn’t the only good news for average income-earners in 2018. That year also saw a series of record-breaking months for job openings.”-WSJ
Pumps – re: taxes.
Income Tax is only one tax. They are going after the rich with a wealth tax. Democrats control the house and the senate. Senator Ron Wyden runs the Senate Finance committee now and Congresswoman Maxine Waters runs the House Finance committee.
We will see floor action this year. They are going to start with 75,000 of the richest households. 2% annually on everything over $50 Million to start.
AP we’ve all been down the road together!
Be strange! Just not a stranger.
AP,
Remember. Don’t be cheap. Be frugal. Life sucks if you are cheap. Life can be incredibly rewarding when you are frugal.
Enjoy the rest of your life.
Juice,
I hate those tax stats. They work a lot like deceptive marketing. Though they might be true, what’s left out is way more eye opening. Like the loopholes that only the wealthy can afford to take advantage. Swiss bank accounts anyone?
I think we are all in agreement that government is too big, wasteful and mostly, if not entirely, in it for themselves. With that said, we are never getting smaller government. The larger it becomes, the more painfully difficult it becomes to fix it. This is definitely intentional.
Worse yet, as executive orders, filibusters, politicised courts and outright immoral behavior become the standard rather than the exception, there really is absolutely no hope for the future of this country. The framers of the constitution did a heck of a job. Unfortunately, what they framed out fit the time period from which it was created. We are fortunate that they allowed amendments and that the document was built to be updated. Which is why I personally find the recent and growing trend at using constitutionalism to negate much needed change, offensive and dangerous. I’m not sure where I’m going with all of this except that it is becoming clearer to me, and it’s really not partisan in nature, that this country is really sinking.
I truly worry about the future of our country. It’s just fukc-up after fukc up regardless of who is in control. And the only people willing to protest it are the fringes and the blacks.
Are there any currency (FOREX) experts among us? It does seem like since we went on a mad dash to print money at the start of Covid, our currency is dropping against most advanced countries currencies. I dug a little deeper and started looking at how each country has been handling helping those financially impacted by the Pandemic and I am struggling to find any others that are making blanket payments to the entire population. I worry about the future of our currency, especially since I’ve worked so hard to collect enough to where my savings are now significant enough for me to make some real coin off of my money. It would suck royally to be devalued back to my peers who make no more than money but spend like there is no tomorrow.
Costa Rica is as much a stress relief play as it is a safety against the further decline of the US, for all but that top 1% who may pay the lion’s share of the taxes, but who also take the lion’s share of the gains from productivity increases.
We are fortunate that they allowed amendments and that the document was built to be updated. Which is why I personally find the recent and growing trend at using constitutionalism to negate much needed change, offensive and dangerous.
The problem is a lot of the changes are being pushed forward without constitutional amendments. Now, the partisans don’t really care about that when they say it… they are just on the correct side of the debate in question and will flip flop in two seconds as needed.
I’m not sure where I’m going with all of this except that it is becoming clearer to me, and it’s really not partisan in nature, that this country is really sinking.
Absolutely.
Pandemic and I am struggling to find any others that are making blanket payments to the entire population. I worry about the future of our currency, especially since I’ve worked so hard to collect enough to where my savings are now significant enough for me to make some real coin off of my money. It would suck royally to be devalued back to my peers who make no more than money but spend like there is no tomorrow.
I don’t know what the right option is. 20% of my wealth has always been in metals. Over the past 10 years, I just consistently added to dividend stocks. I’ve held things like Singapore basket ETFs that pay dividends to have exposure to companies outside of the US and get paid in their currencies. I firmly believe Crypto is going to have a major pullback, but I started last month putting money in it. Basically, $250 a month into BTC, $100 into Ethereum. I think if I get to about 2 to 4% in that, I’ll be happy. Chamath refers to it as schmuck insurance. If it crashes, I will do a major purchase.
My goal is to be fully out of cash dollars that have piled up in my accounts the past 2 years. I thought the currency was doomed 15 years ago, now I’m certain.
BRT,
Here’s my big dilemma. I’ve been an absolute monster at timing major market corrections. It’s almost uncanny, or lucky, how I’ve been able to bail out near the top. Admittedly, it’s hard to nail the bottom, and I was a little late to the party in 2008, but not in the tech crash nor the covid pop. Nor even during the Trump December to remember. Only once did I pull out over the last two years thinking the end was near when it ended up being a 10% correction, but I was able to get back in without two much missed opportunity. Though my fear this time is that the drop is really going to be huge. The world is investing in us and they have no clue how dumb we have become. Sure, there was some harm on display during the Trump years. Plus our complete and utter mishandling of Covid (both Trump and what we’ve seen from Biden so far) had to have opened some eyes around the world. But what are they showing on their 10 o’clock news? I doubt it’s us. So when the monster drop occurs, are they going to save us? Half of the people investing today don’t remember the tech bubble. Are they going to double down this time? And what is the FED going to do this time? If printing is what broke the camel’s back and interest rates are already at zero, what is left to do besides tax the rich. And the rich won’t allow this to happen anyway. So at what point do you get back in? Having some precious in your portfolio may actually be smart for a change. Never thought I would ever say that, but then again, I never thought I would see this as markets are hitting record highs with the regularity of my morning dump.
Personally, I would stay away from the Kryptos. Outside of money laundering, they serve little purpose. Overnight, the central banks could erase them.
I love metals, I’ve always loved the idea of crypto but heavily skeptical. At this point, It think I’ve done ok for myself to not be so focused on growth and more focused on safety. I think, to preserve crypto, these companies like Coinbase, paypal, and gemini just need to grease a few politician’s palms.
Originally, in 2006, I had exposure to any other English speaking country, Australia, Canada, New Zealand, UK, and Singapore. Basically, Singapore was the only country who’s equities paid off. Got burned on the rest. So, years ago, I shifted some allocation to to Asian ETFs Singapore, Taiwan and Japan (EWS, EWT and EWJ).
So, it’s basically a combo of metals, US dividend stocks and index funds, and Asian ETFs. I’m adding a little crypto to the mix. Other than that, I got no ideas.
But with currency collapse and an escape plan to Costa Rica, maybe money laundering is exactly what you are looking for?
Ha. I try to keep things legal. I just picked up another book on purchasing real estate down there. The big issue is selling real estate. It takes for effin’ ever to find a buyer. Especially if you go large. Basically, this home will be my last. Bury me in the backyard, because that’s as far as I’m going.
As for diversifying, a little under half of my wealth is tied up in real estate. It’s a nice problem to have. I have a whopping two choices to invest outside America in my 401K and both options are pretty terrible, so my IRAs are where my international is. Mostly in that silly non-state owned ETF XSOE which mimics the Nasdaq since it’s so heavy in tech with a lot of Baba and Tencent type names. IRAs are where I do my stock picking as well and the rest sits in VUG. Currently I’m 80/20 invested to dry powder. I do expect the upcoming stimulus and porkulus to bring us a momentary lapse of insanity as everyone who doesn’t need it blows their wad and thensome on bitchez and hoes. The market should shoot straight up, and that’s when I’ll be moving into stable funds. The timing on the buy back in is going to be very tough. When this thing blows, it’s really going to be tough to get back in if we do a 40 to 60% drop. But I’ll be ready and waiting for it.
https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/01/The-Longer-Telegram-Toward-A-New-American-China-Strategy.pdf
“In the final analysis, the major problem facing the United States in confronting Xi’s China is not one of military, economic, or technological capabilities. It is one of self-belief. There is a subtle yet corrosive force that has been
at work in the United States’ national psychology for some time now, raising
doubt about the nation’s future and encouraging a sense that, as a country,
America’s best days may now be in the past. Adversaries and allies sense
this as well. Objectively, there is no basis for any such despair. The United
States, as a country, is young, and the capacity for innovation is unsurpassed.
The values for which it stands have stood the test of time. This is where the
nation’s leadership must once again step up to the challenge—not just to
provide the nation with vision, mission, and purpose; not just to frame the
strategy and give it effect; but to cause the American people to once again
believe in the nation and its capacity to provide effective global leadership
for the century ahead. In doing so, the nation must also lead its friends and
allies to once again believe in the United States as well.”
The above reminds me of the core belief that sickens me about the entire woke culture.
It implies that the U.S. is a finite pie to be quarreled over…. instead we should be searching for ways to effectively share expanding the pie. Fcuking myopic idiots.
Stocks Are Setting Records Because the Bull Thesis Is Coming Together
More stimulus, more vaccine doses, and more job growth sent stocks higher Friday. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite touched new highs Friday.
Stocks rose Friday as all of the key economic developments needed continue to unfold. Two out of three major indexes set record highs, and one just missed.
https://apple.news/Aqrf7fVwsRrGiLKCWBAkSgQ
More than three dozen New York City mayoral candidates are vying for one of the toughest jobs in the country: leading the nation’s largest city back to pre-pandemic employment levels while trying to find the funding to do so.
https://www.wsj.com/articles/new-york-city-mayoral-candidates-propose-paths-to-job-recovery-11612625942?st=teohmbrfqahjzg0&reflink=article_copyURL_share
Good time to buy in nyc metro. Lot of upgrades and money coming this way.
“Maya Wiley, a Democratic candidate and former counsel to Mr. de Blasio, unveiled her “New Deal New York” proposal last month, which plans to create 100,000 new jobs over five years, focusing on infrastructure improvements like the Great Depression-era plan. The overall project costs $10 billion and will be financed through unspent capital funds, as well as taking on debt, according to her campaign.“
“Andrew Yang’s recovery plan is tied to vaccinations and a universal-basic income proposal for the poorest New Yorkers, modeled after the national program he introduced when he ran for president, he has said.”
The markets cranking at levels never seen before. Let’s borrow from our children.
“the nation’s leadership must once again step up to the challenge”
No amount of innovation nor ingenuity can overcome the desire of our current group of politicians to personally enrich themselves. Sorry, but it’s the truth.
Forget philosophies on how best to handle the pandemic. Why are we not able to manufacture enough doses to inoculate our own citizens, let alone the world? God help us if a variant not resistant to the strains in the current vaccines arises before we reach herd immunity. One hundred percent focus should be on getting vaccines into the world’s arms. At least Israel gets it! Those effin smart Jews.
College matters based on the avgs.
“The higher the educational attainment, the more stable the job situation
Higher-educated workers continue to fare better during the Covid-19 outbreak than those with lower levels of educational attainment. In January, the unemployment rate for those with less than a high school diploma was at 9.1 percent; for high school graduates, it was at 7.1 percent. For those with some college, the unemployment rate was 6.2 percent, and for those with at least a bachelor’s degree, it was 4 percent.”
https://apple.news/AzaOPPRBkRnu8AqnsIxK8aA
At the same time, at least the kids get a nice childhood.
Libturd says:
February 6, 2021 at 7:13 pm
The markets cranking at levels never seen before. Let’s borrow from our children.
Cathie has an Israel based fund. She understands they get stuff done.
America picked a damn good ally for the Middle East. By far the best.
At the end of the day, America is still the leader of innovation. We kick a$$. Don’t pay attention to the dumb political headlines about debt or the decline of America. America is still the strongest nation in the world by far. It’s not even a competition. China is an imposter, stealing our sh!t to stay in the competition…enough said.
I have faith in an innovative America. This generation of millennials are going to kill it. Absolutely destroy the rest of the world in terms of competition in green energy and working together.
Libturd says:
February 6, 2021 at 7:18 pm
“the nation’s leadership must once again step up to the challenge”
No amount of innovation nor ingenuity can overcome the desire of our current group of politicians to personally enrich themselves. Sorry, but it’s the truth.
Forget philosophies on how best to handle the pandemic. Why are we not able to manufacture enough doses to inoculate our own citizens, let alone the world? God help us if a variant not resistant to the strains in the current vaccines arises before we reach herd immunity. One hundred percent focus should be on getting vaccines into the world’s arms. At least Israel gets it! Those effin smart Jews.
Don’t go all in on Costa Rica yet, America still has a way to grow.
Massive change is upon us. Cheap Human labor is no longer the driver of manufacturing. Tech is. America will lead in manufacturing again, the robots say so.
If we aren’t the most technologically advanced nation on earth, then we wouldn’t be the world power. Our military still says we are..
Just remember, no one thought we could become energy independent again..poof…American ingenuity prevailed.
AP. Congrats! Hope you continue to this high-level and quality chat group. Honestly I have been lurking long time and learned a lot from the folks.
I had been thinking of paying off my mortgage for my rentals, being charged interest was kind of bugging me all the time. My highest rate is 4.5% investment going on for some time. I was very close to paying it off, but due to COVID it now serves as protection a little bit for a non-paying tenant. Instead switched to fully invested after summer when I realized the FED has no end in sight. Remember the Powell-Pivot, he couldn’t even talk about a small rate hike when all conditions were there.
Post-COVID I was waiting for some solvency issues and dollar increasing in value compared to others, which briefly it did, but they printed so many trillions so quickly and committed in the future. I don’t see a reversal in short term, although we are close to a reversal point in DXY.
I entered crypto a little late in Apr, and put much more in Nov. The govs/CBs got late in response. India this week banned, it didn’t even budge. Today we have a few representatives/senators very close to the idea, and Wyoming opened a lot of legal doors. CME accepts future markets, we have a few instrument already and a bunch of ETF in sight. Taxation of crypto is gonna be the government’s hot hand. Yellen scared the shit out of me when she mentioned in the confirmation hearings about the tax on unrealized gains. They could easily legislate that if they desire which would put a lid on the crypto and perhaps to the stock market bubble.
Because we are tied down by the ideology of the moment, “Free Market above everything else”. No different than the USSR, “Communist Party over everything else”. Both had and presently have a problem with “reality”.
In WW1, the railroads were taken over under the US Army and standardize to operate together and efficiently, simply because the “free market” aspect did not allow them to do it to win a World War.
Same thing now. Those in the know in science have a very high index of suspicion that Covid is an escapee Gain of Function manipulated virus. Look no further than the hard reaction of China once the national government took over, the Taiwanese reaction to the Chinese government reaction, the South Korean government reaction to both, and the latters’ understanding of communist government decision making, which is very close to how Trump decided things.
We at heart are a selfish country, at the same time we happen to be under societal control of the most selfish, self centered, apathetic, and frankly malfeasant generation the country has had since its birth.
Libturd says:
February 6, 2021 at 7:18 pm
“the nation’s leadership must once again step up to the challenge”
No amount of innovation nor ingenuity can overcome the desire of our current group of politicians to personally enrich themselves. Sorry, but it’s the truth.
Forget philosophies on how best to handle the pandemic. Why are we not able to manufacture enough doses to inoculate our own citizens, let alone the world? God help us if a variant not resistant to the strains in the current vaccines arises before we reach herd immunity. One hundred percent focus should be on getting vaccines into the world’s arms. At least Israel gets it! Those effin smart Jews.
Israel fund idea was great. Something I really wanted to look into that too. Here there is a country rich with talent, institutions like army creating so many ideas and incubate innovations that are ready to be exported. Like guns, machinery, intellectual property, software, security products (VPN) and much more. The country early invested in semiconductor development and software is simply reaping the benefits of a connected age with no funding problems.
We can do that too, once we realize the real deal. Unfortunately there had been dramatic reductions in funding by DARPA and federal government on so many key items. Privatization of space program made a few mega billionaires but not everything is cost for short-term. The Apollo program ended up paying its cost when you look at the big picture, the products and industries it led to. Today government lost that handle. There needs to be a new “tech” deal in so called green deal to really work. Converting internal combustion to a simple electric motor won’t cut it. I am talking like 5G (may be 6G) a strong IP protection to fend off China and a friendly government to science and scientists. Hope it happens.
Good stuff here tonight.
Remember people. You are all invited to the GTG in CR.