C19 Open Discussion Week 51

From Barrons:

Four Things to Know About the Housing Market in 2021

Last year was an exceptional one for the housing market, which boomed in the second half. The National Association of Realtors’ January existing-home-sales data show the continuation of some of the same trends this year—as well as some key changes and rising challenges. 

Existing-home sales in January reached a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 6.69 million, faster than the 6.61 million FactSet consensus expected, and an increase of 0.6% from December’s revised rate. Sales were up 23.7% compared with last January, the release said.

That high rate shows the resale market is still hot after home sales shot up in the second half of the year. January’s seasonally adjusted rate is one of the highest since April 2006, second only to the rate reported in October 2020, Lawrence Yun, chief economist at the National Association of Realtors, said on a conference call with reporters.

While single-family sales remained strong at a rate of 5.93 million, condo and co-op sales made a greater leap. Sales of condos and co-ops increased 4.1% month over month and 28.8% year over year, compared with a single-family sales increase of 0.2% month over month and 23% year over year.

Single-family-home sales jumped 23% compared with last January—but the picture varies by price point. 

Homes priced between $250,000 and $500,000 comprised the greatest share of homes sold at 40.1%. Sales in this category grew 27% year-over-year.

A historically tight supply of existing homes for sale could have cut into transactions in 2020—a trend that shows little sign of slowing in 2021. Housing inventory set another record low in the first month of the new year, Yun said on the call, falling to 1.04 million units. Months’ supply, or how long it would take at the current sales pace to sell every home listed, remained at 1.9 months, flat with December but down from 3.1 months last year. “Sales could be even higher, but just inventory is simply not there,” Yun said.

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284 Responses to C19 Open Discussion Week 51

  1. Grim says:

    Almost 1 full year of covid talk

  2. 1987 Condo says:

    Grim, nice. from NJ Monthly:

    Silk City Distillers
    Clifton
    “Nothing has changed in 300 years,” says James Bednar, “except the equipment is shinier and has computer controls.” But since launching their operation in 2015, Bednar and his three partners have created a number of distinctive potions. They make maple syrup, then age one of their bourbons in the casks used for the syrup. Silk City’s bourbon adds wheat to the usual blend of corn, barley and rye for a sweeter note. In December, they released a 100-proof whiskey aged 4-1/2 years. This year they will release a “very nutty and caramelly” quinoa whiskey. The large tasting room is open, but at 25 percent occupancy is limited to 12 people.—Eric Levin

    321 River Road, contact@silkcitydistillers.com

    https://njmonthly.com/articles/eat-drink/new-jersey-distilleries/?utm_campaign=Gist&utm_medium=email&_hsmi=111994160&_hsenc=p2ANqtz–fXZG1xrqcBkf6x1Xyd6oUnAdLYJ-8PBHI8_rlwjvAoLcm10fzJGyxnOH-uthvt89pEQVBhSHNTVrr5I3SHcAHHa2DsQ&utm_content=111994160&utm_source=hs_email

  3. Fast Eddie says:

    I made a family member take me out for a ride yesterday as I’m tired of sitting in the house as I heal. There was an open house on Hillsdale Avenue yesterday. The line was from the house to the curb, down the driveway, prospective buyers lined up and distanced. When I saw all the cars, I originally thought someone was having a party. There’s no doubt that that house is already under contract or will be by tonight, well above the asking price.

  4. BRT says:

    Seventeen years ago, a high-voltage transmission line sagged into an overgrown tree on a warm summer day in northern Ohio. It caused a fault that triggered a cascading outage that ultimately interrupted electric service to 55 million people across the Northeastern United States and Ontario, Canada.

    Got stuck in NYC that day. Awful. I was getting blood work done and had to fast the entire night before. When I got out, the power goes out. I’m driving to the tunnel and my mom calls up telling me to pick my sister up at Greenwich village. Big friggin mistake. I do but when I get back to around Houston, there are no cops directing traffic. They were all deployed to specific locations in the event of an attack. Nonstop people walking preventing anyone from getting through any roads. Pure chaos with no lights and no cops. If you thought New Yorkers come together in a time of crisis, this day clearly proved otherwise. Everyone was screaming at each other and ready to fight. When I get to the tunnel, (3 hours later), the police reroute us in a 8 circle because it was backing up. Another 90 minutes in, I’m literally dying of hunger from the fast . I hop out of the car in the middle of the street, run over to the street food guy and he goes, “all I got is a sausage and pita bread”. I said, “do it up man”. Seriously, the sausage was so old and dry, but damn nothing ever tasted so good in my life. There were people hitchhiking to try to get to Jersey from the tunnel. I picked up one guy and let him off on the other side. That was my good deed for the day.

  5. Chicago says:

    Shut up. If it wasn’t for COVID, this site would be dead you Judas.

    Grim says:
    February 21, 2021 at 6:27 am
    Almost 1 full year of covid talk

  6. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Reaffirms my belief with ARK. You don’t want to be invested in so many companies, you just want to be invested in the one’s that you think are best, which is exactly what she is doing.

    “If you can find 3 great companies, you will be rich” -Buffett

    https://m.youtube.com/watch?fbclid=IwAR21x0b-L8E_J3mV7hbU4PGj3lnKQE-BwSOvoPO8vUm_WlvenxItiZCY5GE&v=VrbLUlxgq84&feature=youtu.be

  7. BRT says:

    Reaffirms my belief with ARK. You don’t want to be invested in so many companies, you just want to be invested in the one’s that you think are best, which is exactly what she is doing.

    “If you can find 3 great companies, you will be rich” -Buffett

    Ark funds on average have about 55 companies in their portfolios.

  8. Phoenix says:

    What is wrong with women today. Imagine coming home, looking at your wife’s Iwatch and seeing messages.

    “Cressman’s then-husband testified he found messages in May 2019 between his wife and the teenage boy on his wife’s messaging watch which wasn’t passcode protected. Her then-husband testified he then contact Crawford County Children and Youth Services as well as state police.”

    66 counts down to 3. Lazy District Attorneys.

    “Cressman was charged with a total of 66 counts initially, but agreed to plead guilty to three counts of statutory sexual assault in November 2020 in a plea agreement with the Crawford County District Attorney’s Office.

    In exchange for her guilty pleas, the other 63 counts weren’t prosecuted.”

    And how she is the “victim.”

    A tearful Cressman told Stevens that she was in an unsatisfying, failing marriage at the time of her sexual abuse of the boy. She said the boy and his family had become like family to her.

    https://www.meadvilletribune.com/news/full-story-ex-teacher-gets-prison-time-for-sexually-assaulting-student/article_e2a66c62-70b3-11eb-af70-33d277879103.html

  9. Hold my beer says:

    Phoenix

    What’s really shocking is she was a PE teacher who wasn’t morbidly obese

  10. The Great Pumpkin says:

    It’s an ETF that focuses on picking winners in disruptive trends as opposed to focusing on diversification. She not only focuses on the winners, but the supporting companies for that winner too.

    BRT says:
    February 21, 2021 at 11:39 am
    Reaffirms my belief with ARK. You don’t want to be invested in so many companies, you just want to be invested in the one’s that you think are best, which is exactly what she is doing.

    “If you can find 3 great companies, you will be rich” -Buffett

    Ark funds on average have about 55 companies in their portfolios.

  11. The Great Pumpkin says:

    I will never understand pedophiles. It’s beyond messed up.

  12. Fast Eddie says:

    As if we didn’t already know what a great number of public school teachers, administrators, board members and union leaders weren’t already thinking and saying behind our backs…

    https://nypost.com/2021/02/20/entire-school-board-resigns-after-members-get-caught-mocking-parents/

  13. Fast Eddie says:

    Bloated waste, fancy names to empty programs, no-show appointments and appointees, consultants advising nothing, rented suites and cars for “business” purposes and nepotism galore:

    https://www.northjersey.com/story/news/new-jersey/2021/02/19/nj-schschools-to-get-1-2-billion-assessments-may-be-cools-get-1-2-billion-assessments-may-canceled/4513499001/

  14. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Dear Financial Samurais,

    In my beginning of 2021 review, I mentioned feeling uneasy about the state of the economy and the markets. That uneasiness hasn’t gone away based on my observations and some of the feedback I’ve recently received.

    Let me share a couple examples of concern.

    1) A Daughter With COVID Asks To Be Picked Up

    My friend’s cousin has a daughter at UC Santa Barbara. She is a freshman who wanted to get the full in-person college experience.

    About a month ago, she started telling her dad that many of her dormmates were getting COVID. She was beginning to get worried.

    A month later, she got COVID and asked her 56-year-old father to immediately drive down and pick her up.

    I asked my friend what if the daughter gave the father COVID during the 5-hour drive home? He said he and his cousin hadn’t thought about that.

    I then asked him if the father was living alone. He said no. The father was bringing his sick daughter home to her mother and two siblings. Huh?

    I’m not sure why the daughter didn’t just quarantine at UCSB for a couple weeks since she was already sick. Potentially spreading the virus to her family and others didn’t make sense.

    But their actions do make sense because we are always looking out for our own interests first.

    Whether it’s a Governor shutting down public schools, but sending his kids to private school or a Senator flying his family to Cancun while his state freezes, we are always looking out for #1.

    Therefore, if you find someone who is truly looking out for you, hold onto them for dear life. It is due to most people looking after themselves that I fear someone is going to mess up our steady recovery.

    Thankfully, COVID cases have dropped by more than 75% in the past six weeks. Perhaps natural herd immunity is working. Fingers crossed we can get enough people vaccinated before a potential 4th wave.

    2) A Preschool Teacher Leveraged To The Gills

    A friend of mine is a preschool teacher. He makes roughly $70,000 a year. He helped me get into Tesla stock in 2018, which I am thankful for.

    As we got to discussing the future of Tesla, he revealed to me he bought more stock on margin recently. I thought he had about a $250,000 position in Tesla, which was already a lot based on his income.

    When I asked him how many shares he owned now, he said, “over 1,000!” In other words, at one point, he had about $900,000 worth of Tesla stock!

    I’m not sure how he keeps getting new funds or how much he can borrow from his brokerage account. However, he did say he “only has to pay a 7% interest rate on his margin.”

    No matter how hard I try to encourage him to de-leverage, he won’t. He’s adamant Tesla will continue to fly to the moon (I hope so). He needs to get rich. At 38, he wants to achieve financial freedom now!

    Meanwhile, the stock is down about 11% from its 2021 high. But on margin, his decline is closer to 22%. He truly has “diamond hands.”

    Investing FOMO is the most difficult type of FOMO to overcome. Unfortunately, I’m sure many retail investors are margined-up. And when the great unwind comes, it is going to be FUGLY!

    Take a look at this chart showing margin debt growth. It has gone vertical since 1Q2020.

    Please Talk To Someone

    If you are suffering from an intense amount of investing FOMO there is a high chance you have excess risk exposure. Either that, or you’re considering doing something brazen with your capital.

    Please talk to your spouse, your parents, or an elder about your current investment portfolio. Discuss with them your financial goals and your investment philosophy. Tell them to give it to you straight!

    If you want to talk to a professional financial advisor for free, Personal Capital is running such a promotion until March 31, 2021 if you have over $100,000 in investments.

    After you link up your investment accounts, a financial advisor will run through your investment portfolio, provide asset allocation advice for your situation, and share what else s/he is seeing other clients do. Learning what other people with similar amounts of wealth are doing is the most interesting part IMO.

    The quest for wealth can be a psychological mind bender. It’s one of the reasons why all of us think we’re middle class, no matter how wealthy we get!

    We’ve made so much money in recent years, it would be a shame to lose it all and then some. Leverage is a killer on the way down.

    When possible, consider converting some of your funny money gains into real assets. It’s one of the best ways to get rich and STAY rich.

  15. Bystander says:

    Sounds like defense budget too. Where is risk, where is capitalism? NYC sale activity down 46% from Jan 2020 and 2.5 30 year for all. It won’t end well. Anyone actively look for a job? 100% remote but for how long? Lots of loose temp contract work for very complex white collar jobs that would be FT normally. Strange times. Feels like precipice of major game shift to me.

  16. BRT says:

    As if we didn’t already know what a great number of public school teachers, administrators, board members and union leaders weren’t already thinking and saying behind our backs…

    https://nypost.com/2021/02/20/entire-school-board-resigns-after-members-get-caught-mocking-parents/

    I will never understand BOE people, especially the parents on it. My friend got voted into BOE after his retirement because he was literally, the most respected teacher in the town. The parents froze him out of every decision with committees.

  17. ExEssex says:

    I’m going to assume that the ridiculous censorship on the site is an indicator that we’re done here.

  18. ExEssex says:

    Too many posts disappear into the vapor.

  19. BRT says:

    So this 2nd Pfizer shot has induced the same exact symptoms of the mystery illness I had nearly a year ago to the day. Headache, fever, chills, zero appetite.

  20. Libturd says:

    Look away from the mirror.

  21. Juice Box says:

    re” Too many posts disappear into the vapor.” Grim has a few spam filters….

    Try adding a bullet between your fancy California words. Like this this
    example ——-> ExEssex = Jerk*off

  22. Chicago says:

    Wtf is this useless stupid crap? It is an advertisement dressed up as a PSA.

    GTFOOH

    The Great Pumpkin says:
    February 21, 2021 at 1:17 pm
    Dear Financial Samurais,

  23. ExEssex says:

    6:52 niiiiice – yeah I was responding to Gary’s nepotism comment with……seriously !?!?

  24. Chicago says:

    Stu: this has been out there for a couple of weeks. I assume it has been posted here or you’ve seen it. However, just in case.
    https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=9rHkXfaIRTM

  25. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Michael J. Meehan and friends started buying a tech company’s shares, but from each other, driving up the price on each trade. Others noticed the rising stock and started buying too, sending shares to more than $100. Then everyone piled in until it hit around $500 at its peak. Sound familiar? GameStop? AMC? Nope. It was RCA, pumped by the so-called Radio Pool in 1928-29.

    Pump-and-dump schemes and roving gangs of investors are an age-old problem. In the 1930s, Congress made these stock pools illegal. Problem solved, right? Ha ha, sure—just like last week’s Roaring Kitty congressional hearings will “fix” the latest iteration. To be fair, RCA was successful and radios really were the future. No matter, after the crash the stock hit $10.

    For a pump and dump to work, you need a certain type of investor—specifically, the type P.T. Barnum said is born every minute (on platforms like Reddit and Robinhood, more like every nanosecond). To be nice, let’s call them dupes. “Greater fools” works too.

    Move Forward
    With Trusted Facts
    For a pump and dump to work, you need a certain type of investor—specifically, the type P.T. Barnum said is born every minute (on platforms like Reddit and Robinhood, more like every nanosecond). To be nice, let’s call them dupes. “Greater fools” works too.
    On Feb. 2, Barstool Sports founder Dave Portnoy tweeted, “I have officially sold all my meme stocks. I lost 700kish. Vlad and company stole it from me and should be in jail”—Vlad Tenev being the founder of the stock-trading app Robinhood. Let me gently suggest what he meant to tweet: “Robinhood limited trading of GameStop and AMC so even bigger fools from Reddit couldn’t bid up the price further and let me dump my shares on them.”
    Here are a few things Congress missed:
    • GameStop had a float, or shares available for trading, of about 50 million. Yet there were 71 million shares sold short. This can happen but shouldn’t. Prime brokers, like Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley, are supposed to make it very difficult. It’s a form of leverage. But they looked the other way. Their securities-lending business is too lucrative—fees, fees, fees—and replaces stock-trading profits lost long ago to high-frequency traders like Citadel and Virtu.
    • This was not some “amateur traders vs. Wall Street fat cats” fantasy. Quite the opposite. Someone was smart enough to note GameStop’s huge short interest. Why didn’t other hedge funds start buying shares and bid it up to pull off the short squeeze of Melvin and Citron? Because hedge funds aren’t stupid and don’t like losing money. Maybe they could have doubled the stock, but none were dumb enough to pay $100, let alone $438, for GameStop shares to squeeze the shorts properly.
    • The Reddit board r/WallStreetBets, a perfect conduit for the pump, was filled with comments like “have diamond hands” (meaning “don’t sell”), instead of “paper hands” (which fold). Dupes are told to hold so the pump-and-dumpers can sell. Cryptoheads call it HODL, or “Hold On for Dear Life.” Same thing. Justin Sun, a founder of the Chinese internet company Tron, bought $10 million in pumped stocks, now worth maybe $2 million. With GME back near $40, a new and predictable Reddit board emerged, r/GMEBagHoldersClub, for all those underwater.
    • In retrospect, the decision by Robinhood and other no-commission brokers to cut off investors temporarily from buying more GameStop shares was a blessing that saved even more dupes from taking a hit. The stock clearinghouse Depository Trust & Clearing Corp. made Robinhood put up more collateral for the increased volume of these pumped stocks, giving Robinhood a great excuse. It isn’t surprising that Robinhood users felt betrayed; the app normally celebrates freewheeling dealing by showing confetti falling after big trades. But grizzled investors will tell you that if you feel euphoric after a trade, it wasn’t a good one. You should feel awful and be second-guessing yourself. That’s the sign of a great trade.
    • The Federal Reserve owns a share of the blame. You can’t pump without hot air, which the Fed has been supplying for way too long. Sometimes these schemes last a while, even years. Pay attention to the stories told by those hyping many of today’s overvalued stocks. Then remember RCA. I worry that all the young dupes smarting from losses now think it’s normal to see cannabis stocks jump 35% on one day or an electric vehicle SPAC up 60% on another. When reality sets in they may turn away from the stock market.
    • Old exchange rules, which mandate that clients have access to the best prices, mean high-frequency traders (HFTs) pay for order flow to brokers like Robinhood. This enables zero commissions, but c’mon, nothing is free. HFTs can move the price of stocks to their advantage depending on how orders are flowing.
    Is today’s market a giant pump and dump? Back in 1999 there were huge flows into growth mutual funds that bought Yahoo every day. Now we see flows into exchange-traded funds like animals flowing onto Noah’s ark. The market is priced at 32 times earnings; the historic norm is 16. SPACs are increasingly the new blind pools. Heck, Kaep and Shaq each have a SPAC. I can’t tell you when this one will end, but they always do—a whiff of inflation could be the pinprick. So could a zealous tax-and-spend Congress. Then expect the inevitable Reddit group: r/StockBagHoldersClub.

    https://apple.news/A0x2V39-0QGiRfstnBdliRw

  26. njtownhomer says:

    Came across with SimplifyETF family. Interesting market exposure with options overlay to deal with extreme downsides/upsides.

    Was looking something that had market exposure with some level of protection.

  27. Phoenix says:

    Will watch after work Joyce. Thank you.

  28. BRT says:

    Michael Burry now saying we are headed towards hyperinflation. He’s usually right, but he’s also usually early.

  29. ExEssex says:

    $100k pickup trucks. Wut inflation?

  30. Libturd says:

    Appreciate the video Chi and the raw silliness of it. It really made me laugh in it’s horrificness.

    Well besides Dusty Gooch, my college friend’s chat can’t believe what this yacht rock song is about. This one is truly mind blowing. Safe for work, but just so cringeworthy. You’ve all heard it, but you definitely never listened to it. The music video brings it home.

    https://youtu.be/zWHjJt4833I

  31. The Great Pumpkin says:

    We can blame the fed all we want. At the end of the day, the Fed does not create speculative markets, humans do. You have a generation of investors that have never had their a$$ handed to them, they got a taste of quick money, and are now searching the market creating their own speculation all over. It’s the people, not the fed. The fed can release all the money it wants, but if the people don’t act in speculative means, looking for quick money, then no speculation happens. Greed is a mother/f/er.

    Go look at NBA top shot. A buddy of mind turned 15 grand into 100 grand in 6 weeks. Wtf is this? They are now creating a speculative market in digital art and digital trading cards. We are in wild times, and it has nothing to do with the fed, and everything to do with the market participants creating this madness.

    Chicago says:
    February 21, 2021 at 11:34 pm
    We are so fcked.
    https://www.wsj.com/articles/im-like-a-spacwhat-the-hell-is-that-rap-explains-hot-finance-trend-11613594908?st=c848w57imvsm9sp&reflink=article_copyURL_share

  32. Libturd says:

    And somehow, Frist!

    Is everyone too busy selling their Ark funds to protect them from the REAL disruptor, hyperinflation?

  33. Libturd says:

    Did the FED cause the margin that created the Great Depression?

    Did the FED cause the CDOs which fueled the Great Recession?

    Did the FED cause the tech bubble which somehow got Mark Cuban 5 billion for Broadcast.com? A man whose net worth is still a billion less than that twenty years later (somehow).

    The FED is never the culprit. It’s always the criminals on Wall Street who are responsible and never pay a significant price for it.

  34. 3b says:

    Lib: The Fed is the enabler. And they lost any credibility they had left, when they backed off raising rates a couple of years ago, when Wall St howled.

  35. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Honestly, ARK is prob a great inflation hedge. It’s based on disruptive trends that are major future growth stories. No one really looks at it like that, but disruptive growth stories is exactly where I want to be if hyperinflation comes.

    Libturd says:
    February 22, 2021 at 8:21 am
    And somehow, Frist!

    Is everyone too busy selling their Ark funds to protect them from the REAL disruptor, hyperinflation?

  36. Libturd says:

    Stocks with P/Es of 1,000 or NR are not inflation hedges.

  37. Libturd says:

    ARKK – Price to Sales is 16 and average P/E is almost 60. Price to sales of 16 is outrageous.

  38. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Not if they become trend breakers and new leaders in said industry.

    Libturd says:
    February 22, 2021 at 8:48 am
    Stocks with P/Es of 1,000 or NR are not inflation hedges.

  39. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Again, this is not a value index fund. It’s an index fund based on disruptive trends. You can’t invest in disruptive trends with low P/E & P/S because they don’t exist.

    Libturd says:
    February 22, 2021 at 8:55 am
    ARKK – Price to Sales is 16 and average P/E is almost 60. Price to sales of 16 is outrageous.

  40. Brt says:

    Not blaming the fed is like letting parents off the hook when they host a high school party, serve the kids alcohol, and let them all drive home drunk.

  41. Bystander says:

    Sure, Dummy. Ever watch Intervention? A family, with several drug-addicted 30 year old children, provides money, food and shelter so kids can keep injecting into oblivion. The dad and mom say they do this to keep them “safe” rather than risking the kids getting killed on street due to their own choices. Never at the end does the counselor say ‘great job’ then pat parents on the back. The parent need to set rules, expectations and try to put responsibility back into kids hands. This is tough love and for two decades our Federal Reserve has done everything to ensure the addicts get their product with no rules or exit strategy. Keep patting them on the back though.

  42. Libturd says:

    Remember when every tech stock was a great disruptor?

    https://schrts.co/PakvwFgH

    Remember when every new tech stock was a great disruptor?

    https://schrts.co/yJItzdkc

  43. Libturd says:

    https://ideas.ted.com/an-eye-opening-look-at-the-dot-com-bubble-of-2000-and-how-it-shapes-our-lives-today/

    “The successful dot-coms of the late ‘90s and early ‘00s had a few things in common: they all vowed to “change the world”, had crazy-high valuations, and were wildly unprofitable.”

  44. Juice Box says:

    There will be a sharp selloff as soon as any hint that the Fed interventions will be wound down. Powell is a Wall St lawyer and ran his own private equity fund among other things, he knows this better than anybody. Once the punch blow is taken away everything will dive, he is going to be in front of the Senate and House Finance committees on Tues and Wed this week.

    He has 1 year left in his term and reality is he does not check all of Biden’s boxes. He is not a woman and is a Republican. I would think sleepy Joe will consider replacing him. He is set to be grilled this week by Elizabeth Warren. You can bet she will set the tone on his future. I suspect the failure of the Fed’s Main Street Lending Program which was terminated last month will be a nice nail for Warren to hammer on. It failed because the banks refused to lend to main street. Just tooo Risky even though the Fed was carrying most of the risk, the banks wanted ZERO skin in the game. Heads I win tails you lose folks!

  45. The Great Pumpkin says:

    So what’s the answer? The fed should give them a bad economy so that they can’t speculate?

    Should we not allow them to invest on their own? Should we have govt programs that are basically 401ks for the masses as the only option of investment?

    At the end of the day, speculation is a part of the game. It allows for winners and losers to be created. It leads to innovation and revolutions in markets. Yes, it causes massive pain for some, but it also makes a lot of smart people rich off dumb money. Money does not vanish into this air.

  46. Libturd says:

    Yes, yes and yes Juice. I’ve already seen two Wall Street hit pieces on Warren today and I haven’t been looking for them. Wall Street knows the gig is nearly up.

    Personally, I think this last round of unnecessary Covid stimulus (except as a vehicle to transfer the pork) combined with the pant up demand from leaky lockdown will cause the market to traject straight up before the chart turns and quickly resembles Kingda Ka.

  47. Libturd says:

    First, the government should have punished Wall Street and put restrictions in place to keep this from happening again in 2008. Instead we got less IBs (even too bigger to fail), crazier get rich quick schemes (SPACs for example), and a FTC that wouldn’t spot a monopoly after landing on Boardwalk with a motel on it. Never before has Wall Street been in bed with the government as it became during the aftermath of the financial crisis. At what point does the balance sheet of the US take us down? It’s funny to say I think we are turning Japanese, but the truth is, that we have. This bull(sh1t) run is going to make the drop legendary.

    Fear not, though Wall Street shysters. We already know that it’s a combination of Covid shutdowns and not enough paper printing that will have caused it, as you gorged yourself as main street starved yet once again.

    https://www.statista.com/chart/22068/change-in-wealth-of-billionaires-during-pandemic/

  48. BRT says:

    So what’s the answer? The fed should give them a bad economy so that they can’t speculate?

    Should we not allow them to invest on their own? Should we have govt programs that are basically 401ks for the masses as the only option of investment?

    At the end of the day, speculation is a part of the game. It allows for winners and losers to be created. It leads to innovation and revolutions in markets. Yes, it causes massive pain for some, but it also makes a lot of smart people rich off dumb money. Money does not vanish into this air.

    This is complete horse sh1t. We made the market so that there are winners. And then, there are losers who are bailed out on the public (or US dollars) dime.

  49. Juice Box says:

    Pumps – Why was the Fed buying corporate bonds? Why did they backstop corporate bond traders? Who does this help?

    Hint – There are now only two companies in the fortune 500 with an AAA credit rating from S&P.

    All of this cheap money has drained any sense of responsibility from the C-Suites of companies. There is nothing in reserve, now it’s all levered up in debt, much of it going into buybacks!!!! Yes we financed our buybacks!!!

    What happens when interest rates tick up and companies need to refinance again and roll that debt over into more debt? This is every balance sheet out there now.

    Money is not supposed to be cheap, it leads to too much risk taking via the leverage it creates and it’s everywhere now.

  50. Libturd says:

    “Money is not supposed to be cheap, it leads to too much risk taking via the leverage it creates and it’s everywhere now.”

    Sometimes, as I drive around in our two sub 30K automobiles, I question where everyone is getting the money to buy all of the sports and luxury cars for which I am surrounded by?

    Then I see a commercial on the television for an 84 month car loan. I look online, and over 20% of car loans are now of this length. Can you imagine the extra costs for comprehensive/collision? And the massive interest you’ll be paying over the life of that loan? How does the government even allow this? That’s right, Wall Street owns our government. Enjoy the crumbs folks. Maybe you’ll get YOUR bailout like during the financial crisis (not). On the bright side, as long as you don’t get repo’d, it’s way more comfortable sleeping in a LX-570 than in a Hyundai Accent.

  51. Fast Eddie says:

    Does anyone know when O’Biden is going to unleash his Covid plan? He said he has a plan. Where is it?

  52. Libturd says:

    It takes a long time to raise pigs for slaughter.

    He’ll release it, once he’s done reading the latest Reader’s Digest.

  53. Juice Box says:

    re Biden Covid plan…

    FEMA opened 1 vaccination site in California last week. Should be up to 6,000 shots a day at that one.

    So far 1 down 399 more to go…..

  54. Hold my beer says:

    Fast

    Right after trump releases his better plan to replace obamacare.

  55. Libturd says:

    Or his taxes. :P

  56. Juice Box says:

    Beer – Any fallout from the storm? Did you defrost yet?

  57. leftwing says:

    Can’t believe I’m opening the door to engagement with you on any topic, let alone the below, but…

    “grizzled investors will tell you that if you feel euphoric after a trade, it wasn’t a good one. You should feel awful and be second-guessing yourself. That’s the sign of a great trade.”

    Possibly the stupidest thing I’ve seen written on trading/investing. It’s the complete opposite. After a good trade you should feel confident, content. Like Ovechkin after a power play goal. Put it on my stick, I know what to do with it, and it will happen when it needs to…If you’re pants on fire running around with doubt after nailing what you are supposed to do…are you fcuking kidding me? Who wants that guy on any team of theirs, let alone their financial team?

    “Now we see flows into exchange-traded funds like animals flowing onto Noah’s ark. ”

    Since I’m assuming this reference went over your head I reproduce it here. Know exactly what you’re getting into…I looked more closely at her over the weekend, some managerial trailmarkers I don’t like….

  58. Libturd says:

    She is running around playing the marketing game for sure. Also an oddity. But what do I know?

  59. Hold my beer says:

    Juice

    All defrosted. No damage for us other than losing some stuff in the fridge. Actually got an amazon fresh order delivered late last night. Lucky to get that too. I had stuff in the cart and kept checking several times a day and yesterday a time slot opened for 8-10 pm delivery. Showed up around midnight. Grocery stores will take a week or two to restock. They are wiped out worse than when covid hit. The roads were so iced we didn’t even get mail delivered until Friday .

  60. Libturd says:

    Just be careful about over replenishing. During Sandy, our power came back on, we spent $200 replenishing our fridge, then the power went back off for another week.

  61. Phoenix says:

    Lib,
    Good call.

  62. BRT says:

    Does anyone know when O’Biden is going to unleash his Covid plan? He said he has a plan. Where is it?

    There is no plan. It was only a few months ago that he and Harris claimed no vaccine is coming any time soon and if it did, we couldn’t trust it. Just badmouth his predecessor. To be honest, there’s not much more to do. Cases are dropping rapidly nationwide, 2nd wave is on the outs. In 6 to 8 weeks, the vaccine shortages will start to turn the other direction. Low transmission the whole summer along with a significant portion of the population already infected or vaccinated.

    IMO, it will be all be in the rear view mirror. Booster shots probably going to be a thing going into the fall for prevalent variants. I’m predicting the fall 3rd wave is a minor blip. Osterholm seems to think we have a category 4 hurricane coming in the next few months with the variants, I’m not buying it and the data doesn’t seem to show it either. We’ll see who’s wrong.

    The plan? Set up a small amount of federal sites and claim you did more. Tell everyone to wear a mask the rest of the year, even if there is less than .0001 percent o the population testing positive.

  63. Phoenix says:

    “Beede defended herself against a parent who chided her on social media for going to a party during the coronavirus pandemic after declaring it wasn’t safe to return to school.”

    “I wasn’t doing anything bad – I honestly don’t care about that part – but are we alone?” she asked the other trustees. “B–, ..If you call me out, I’m going to f-you up.”

    “Sorry, that’s just me,” Beede added.

    “Uh oh,” Beede says. “We have the meeting open to the public right now.”

    “Nuh uh,” says Brizendine.

    https://abcnews.go.com/US/california-districts-school-board-resigns-comments-bashing-parents/story?id=76020108

  64. BRT says:

    Lib,

    past two cars for my wife and I, average price of $20k and paid cash. My friend and his buddies at work got a raise and something like 6 of his coworkers went out and leased new luxury vehicles. One crashed the door in 4 weeks into it and had no money to fix it. Every time I go in to buy a new appliance or something, they always want me to go the credit route. Even Pep Boys is asking me to do it on an oil change.

  65. Phoenix says:

    20k car? Or more like 29k car. Hell a Corolla is more than 20k.

  66. BRT says:

    My civic was 17 (8 years ago), my wife’s civic hatchback was 23.

  67. Phoenix says:

    I remember a time when you could buy a stripped Toyota 2wd 5spd pickup for 14k. Just A/C and crank windows.

    Some Tacos are now over 50k.

  68. chicagofinance says:

    The easiest way to describe this market to the layman is going to the cas1no and playing BlackJack with special rules. The house has forced the dealer to take cards until they have a 21. Of course the players will lose from time to time, but anyone who understands the game will be making a filthy amount of money. The problem is that a heck of a lot of newbies with no clue will also create all manner of strategies, rules and themes that are completely worthless and unrepeatable in normal conditions. However, it will be completely transparent to them that they are being handed money and have no knowledge or skills. When the rules of the game revert to normal, these unskilled participants will have a set of tools that will ensure that they will be broken.

    As you know in the cas1no, when the odds on in your favor, get as much money on the table as possible.

    The Great Pumpkin says:
    February 22, 2021 at 9:46 am
    So what’s the answer? The fed should give them a bad economy so that they can’t speculate?

    Should we not allow them to invest on their own? Should we have govt programs that are basically 401ks for the masses as the only option of investment?

    At the end of the day, speculation is a part of the game. It allows for winners and losers to be created. It leads to innovation and revolutions in markets. Yes, it causes massive pain for some, but it also makes a lot of smart people rich off dumb money. Money does not vanish into this air.

  69. Phoenix says:

    Haha 8 years ago.
    Houses were 30% less 8 years ago as well.

    Well, if you want to go that route, my first new car was 6k. Yeah brand new with A/C.

    Mitsubishi Mirage.

    Today 28k is a econobox.

  70. Libturd says:

    My manual 95 Civic HB was 12.6 K in the driveway. AC was a $1200 option. Roll up windows and no clock. Surprised it had a tachometer.

    It’s actually much more comparable to today’s Honda Fit which is about 17.5K in the driveway and 40 more HP.

  71. Brt says:

    Yeah, but I’m still driving it with 225k miles on it with no sign of slowing down.

  72. The Great Pumpkin says:

    She is a good long term bet, placing your money in her hands is not for the short term. She doesn’t hide that, she openly says it is a long term bet. She is in the complete know when it comes to trends. She is way more knowledgeable than I could ever be on this. I have to teach, I can’t build a team and network to do this. So I will gladly pay her to do it for me.

    I’m betting on major innovation change in the next 10 years. I’m putting my money he is the most highly knowledgeable person on this. I’m not looking for quick money, but I’m looking for big money in the long term.

    “Now we see flows into exchange-traded funds like animals flowing onto Noah’s ark. ”

    Since I’m assuming this reference went over your head I reproduce it here. Know exactly what you’re getting into…I looked more closely at her over the weekend, some managerial trailmarkers I don’t like….

  73. The Great Pumpkin says:

    If hyperinflation is coming, it’s a damn good idea to take out as much money as you can borrow right now and put it into real estate (or whatever inflation hedge).

    “As you know in the cas1no, when the odds on in your favor, get as much money on the table as possible.”

  74. leftwing says:

    Out of most of my BEAM with a tip of the hat to CW…20% in 20 days…..may regret it, it’s on a tear, but sometime you just need to take profits.

  75. Chicago says:

    Pumps. Are you familiar with DCF’s? I am guessing not.

  76. The Great Pumpkin says:

    No, I am not. What is it?

    Chicago says:
    February 22, 2021 at 1:06 pm
    Pumps. Are you familiar with DCF’s? I am guessing not.

  77. Hold my beer says:

    Supposedly the rolling power outages are over. Still only buying about a week’s worth of dairy at a time and will only get the more long life green vegetables.

    Seems like there are a lot more broken pipes than I thought there were a few days ago.
    Lots of people have broken hot water pipes. They dripped the cold but not the hot water faucets. They didn’t think the hot water would freeze. At least with a broken hot water pipe you can shut if off at the hot water heater and throw the circuit breaker to it and still be able to have cold water. Most hot water heaters are electric in this area.

  78. leftwing says:

    “Pumps. Are you familiar with DCF’s? I am guessing not.”

    I just caught up with the morning’s posts, was going to ask the same thing.

    Pumps, you are so fcuked. You have no idea what you hold…you sit here pumping inflation and are long super high duration equities….

    ARKK is dependent on the 10 year bond….you are essentially ‘investing’ in a bet that LT rates stay relatively flat or decrease……

  79. The Great Pumpkin says:

    In a long term bet on disruptive innovation, none of that noise matters. That’s for short termers. Should she stop investing because the yield is going up?

  80. Bystander says:

    Chi, what do you think he used to swindle Granny out of her house? I think a con calls it the “hurrah” though. Probably showed her how housing was bad investment compared to pets dot com. Hurry, grams.

  81. leftwing says:

    “Honestly, ARK is prob a great inflation hedge.”

    “In a long term bet on disruptive innovation, none of that noise matters. That’s for short termers. Should she stop investing because the yield is going up?”

    Says the man who isn’t acquainted with DCF…..

    As I said this morning, know what you hold….you think you hold a portfolio of ‘disruptive technologies’ with some amorphous subjective feeling that ‘they’ll do well long term’ when in reality you are tied to the ten year and have done no objective diligence……

    You will have the same doe-eyed, headed to the slaughter look that ‘investors’ in 2008 did when their securities flamed and they realized “you mean those AAA bonds were underpinned by CCC sh1t?!?!”….

    KNOW WHAT YOU HOLD….and, hint, what you hold is usually not written on the front of a prospectus…..

  82. BRT says:

    “Disruption” is just a buzzword at this point. The shoot for the moon and revenue/profits be damned model works for a handful of companies and leaves the rest bankrupt or acquired at a fraction of their all time high. You know…Yahoo was disruptive.

  83. The Great Pumpkin says:

    If you are betting on companies (and their supply lines) that will lead disruptive tech (esp in healthcare), it will act as an inflation hedge. If they are good companies, inflation can’t stop them in the long run. Busts can’t stop them. Nothing can.

    That’s the way I see it. Maybe I’m wrong, but history says no. Maybe this time is different.

  84. BRT says:

    Supposedly the rolling power outages are over. Still only buying about a week’s worth of dairy at a time and will only get the more long life green vegetables.

    Seems like there are a lot more broken pipes than I thought there were a few days ago.
    Lots of people have broken hot water pipes. They dripped the cold but not the hot water faucets. They didn’t think the hot water would freeze. At least with a broken hot water pipe you can shut if off at the hot water heater and throw the circuit breaker to it and still be able to have cold water. Most hot water heaters are electric in this area.

    Every time we anticipate power outage from a hurricane/major winter storm, I freeze a few 36 packs of water bottles and put them into the freezer. It slows the overall thawing.

    Our most recent 3 day outage, having 4 20 pound frozen turkeys in the freezer prevented anything from really defrosting.

  85. Fabius Maximus says:

    Here is the Historical version of ARK. I have a friend who dollar cost averaged CMGI to the basement.

    https://www.nytimes.com/2000/12/10/business/cmgi-can-defy-gravity-only-so-long.html

  86. Fabius Maximus says:

    Great day for Donnies taxes to come out.

    Here is a good assessment of Steele.

  87. Fabius Maximus says:

    What is up with this snow. All the models said I would get rain, followed by snow. Supposed to get 0.1″ on most maps, given the temp, that’s what I expected. I have big white flakes that are sticking and the roads are a mess.

  88. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Big difference here.

    Ark is actively managed. Cathie built a team and network that is ahead of the curve in spotting trends. No one gets it yet, she is in the complete know in terms of trends. She has put together a winning formula that HAS NEVER BEEN USED BEFORE. Let’s wait and see before we bash it as a false strategy…and all luck.

    Fabius Maximus says:
    February 22, 2021 at 1:41 pm
    Here is the Historical version of ARK. I have a friend who dollar cost averaged CMGI to the basement.

  89. chicagofinance says:

    left: saw your posts….. I was doing a check and came to post this…. coincident with the above from you…. I’m thinking 1.58% and then 1.85%…. not sure beyond that….

    https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5ETNX?p=%5ETNX

  90. Fast Eddie says:

    Great day for Donnies taxes to come out.

    Sure, right after sleepy Joe tells us about his association with Tony Bobulinski. Anything to give you l1berals hope because G0d knows, l1berals never have anything substantial to offer. You all love to dream but unfortunately, you never wake up.

  91. chicagofinance says:

    It switched over down here….. snow never stuck, became a hard rain at 12PM. Was thinking same thing…

    Fabius Maximus says:
    February 22, 2021 at 1:50 pm
    What is up with this snow. All the models said I would get rain, followed by snow. Supposed to get 0.1″ on most maps, given the temp, that’s what I expected. I have big white flakes that are sticking and the roads are a mess.

  92. chicagofinance says:

    Something occurred to me….. these boards are feeling very 2006-2007 ish. We know there is tons of stupid stuff going on, but we have no evidence. I just hope something big doesn’t blow up again…..

  93. chicagofinance says:

    I remember someone here (maybe grim) producing that detailed CDO document, and we finally had a chance to see how the sausage was being made.

  94. leftwing says:

    “If you are betting on companies (and their supply lines) that will lead disruptive tech (esp in healthcare), it will act as an inflation hedge. If they are good companies, inflation can’t stop them in the long run. Busts can’t stop them. Nothing can. That’s the way I see it. Maybe I’m wrong, but history says no. Maybe this time is different.”

    And there we have it…I wrote this morning I would regret engaging…that’s right, ignore facts and analysis and run to your safe space of “well that’s just how I see it”.

    Over and out. GL. Seriously. We tried.

    And, yes, you are correct nothing can stop disruptive technologies long term. Because those literal hundreds of canal companies, railroad companies, and car companies were all successful, right?

    I’ll meet you in Lambertville for a beer when the snow clears. Give me some advance notice, need to check the connecting schedules of the Morris Canal with the Delaware Canal……

  95. joyce says:

    Yes, an orderly reversion to mean, or long LONG stagnation accomplishing same, would be preferable… but has that every happened before? To be clear, I’m not predicting a crash because I don’t know enough about the markets one way or another.

    chicagofinance says:
    February 22, 2021 at 1:55 pm
    Something occurred to me….. these boards are feeling very 2006-2007 ish. We know there is tons of stupid stuff going on, but we have no evidence. I just hope something big doesn’t blow up again…..

  96. joyce says:

    I only read the first two … but I thought you said like 400 times here that the Dossier is accurate and nothing has been disproved?

    Fabius Maximus says:
    February 22, 2021 at 1:44 pm
    Link
    https://twitter.com/SethAbramson/status/1363906350137417737

  97. Hold my beer says:

    BRT

    Did you watch MacGyver a lot (the original one, not the remake)?

    “Every time we anticipate power outage from a hurricane/major winter storm, I freeze a few 36 packs of water bottles and put them into the freezer. It slows the overall thawing.”

  98. Hold my beer says:

    Fast

    Don’t worry. Nothing ever happens to the wealthy. But if a lower class 19 year old gets pulled over and has 2 joints in his pocket and a 12 pack in his trunk he will face the wrath of the law and take years to recover, if ever from it.

  99. leftwing says:

    “Something occurred to me….. these boards are feeling very 2006-2007 ish. We know there is tons of stupid stuff going on, but we have no evidence. I just hope something big doesn’t blow up again…..”

    4% on triple-Cs…..

    What was it, a little over 40 years ago a middle class California kid turned the corporate and finance worlds upside down by putting into practice the easy and known observation that there was a mispricing ‘cliff’ in yields between IG and junk becoming in the process one of the wealthiest Americans?

    We are in the exact opposite world now…..there is absolutely no justification and no good outcome for CCC credit to be priced at 4%. It simply doesn’t work objectively….it is the exact opposite of the arbitrage and theorem proven by Milken, and it is destined to fail on a risk adjusted basis…mark it down, junk yields in the absolute will be the big “how did miss that signal in hindsight” moment this time….

    I’m not saying there is going to be a crash, fools predict low probability, high impact one time events with certainty….I am saying that investing (or even living) by aligning with the preponderance of evidence is beneficial to one’s well being….from my analytics, I’m very confident of my positions as I know exactly where I am on the map, and I’m holding the right map with the top pointed to true North…..

  100. leftwing says:

    “I’m thinking 1.58% and then 1.85%…. not sure beyond that….”

    At an interesting level right now…close to 160 takes us back to lows in 2012, 16, and 19….have to imagine some resistance there…..she decides to run the other way i’m guessing a bunch of shorts get filled and provide support around 120….

    i hate this, there is no market anymore…..just a guess of what some grey haired dude is going to do with monetary policy and his equally aged and grey one time cohort is going to sponsor on the fiscal side…..fcuking roulette table…..

  101. LurksMcGee says:

    @2:37

    Mind sharing those positions Leftwing? Not asking so that I can judge, just asking so that I can do some analysis myself.

  102. JCer says:

    Hold, I think a lot of the people on this site plan for contingencies, even relatively unlikely ones, it’s what has us looking for the impending crash(we are in strange times at the moment).

    I test my generator before these storms, keep fuel on hand, 10 gallons plus I fill up both cars before these storms(can always siphon some of the 40 gallons) and I have a nat gas carburetor I haven’t gotten around to installing but if TSHTF I can get it installed in probably a few hours should gasoline become hard to come by. Even with just the 10 gallons I can power my heat and freezers/fridges running for more than 2 days, I did almost 3 days during a power outage in the summer(you cycle the power a day only has power for 12-16 hours). I keep an inventory of food that could keep us fed for a month pretty easily, mostly dry goods but also some meat, cheese, eggs, and canned/frozen fruit and veg. We too freeze water in advance of major storms, and it is good to have drinking water on hand as well, if you have a well or require a pump to get water you should fill all your bath tubs too. It doesn’t take much extra effort to be prepared, thankfully haven’t need to really use any of it but at least during some of the early shortages during Covid we had pretty much everything when some was hard to come by. People tend to take things for granted, you cannot depend on the government or you’re electrical utilities being competent, everything proves total incompetence is more likely.

    I’m not saying people should go all prepper but people should reasonably expect that things could break down in the short term(a few days or a week). A hundred years ago people were much more prepared for things than people are today, we take for granted modern conveniences.

  103. crushednjmillenial says:

    Any guesses on what price this will trade for?

    90 Washington Ave.
    Hillsdale, NJ
    $525k list price
    3 bed, 2.5 ba
    $12k/year taxes

    https://www.realtor.com/realestateandhomes-detail/90-Washington-Ave_Hillsdale_NJ_07642_M50616-55239

  104. Libturd says:

    JCER,

    We do nearly all of the same things. :P

  105. chicagofinance says:

    Someone is getting liquidated out of TSLA

  106. BRT says:

    Hold,

    hell yeah. MacGuyver was one of my favorite childhood shows. No, at heart, my over education in physics and chemistry teaches me to think like a complete nerd in any situation. I literally think about conservation of momentum when I see someone approaching from behind too fast while I’m at a red light.

    My son is literally like MacGuyver though. The kid can take apart and fix anything with garbage parts.

  107. chicagofinance says:

    I still remember meeting my cousin after he started with Citadel and we discussed negative yielding Greek debt, and this was at least 2 years ago. WTF? Through Euro Treasuries?

    leftwing says:
    February 22, 2021 at 2:37 pm
    “Something occurred to me….. these boards are feeling very 2006-2007 ish. We know there is tons of stupid stuff going on, but we have no evidence. I just hope something big doesn’t blow up again…..”

    4% on triple-Cs…..

  108. ExEssex says:

    Big legislative moves especially in healthcare will further challenge Big Pharma.
    That and Trump going to prison.

  109. Libturd says:

    BRT,

    During that 20″ snowstorm, a part broke on my Troy Bilt snowblower. Of course, no hardware stores were open. I kid you not, I fixed it with a twist tie from one of my tenants garbage bags. I just got the correct replacement part today. It held for two more uses at two properties with my twist tie repair. The part that broke was a mix between a cotter pin and a shearing pin. A cotter pin would have been able to do it, but the part had to rotate and the parts on the pin you would have to bend to keep it in place would have protruded so far that it wouldn’t have been able to rotate. It was basically what held the rod to the chute which made it turn about 180 degrees in each direction.

  110. Hold my beer says:

    It gets weird around picture 12

  111. leftwing says:

    “Mind sharing those positions Leftwing? Not asking so that I can judge, just asking so that I can do some analysis myself.”

    I have none that I’d put new money to work in today. I’m still holding my core stuff (FAANGM, financials, etc) but it has booked gains and is hedged so not really applicable for new money today. I was on here trolling for ideas a few weeks ago, lol, Lib is our best long fundamental idea guy…his CENT had a nice run…has become wobbly recently though with a potential breakdown in the chart, may want to see where it sorts out during the upcoming days…

    I’ve thrown some new positions up here….BEAM and VNT for holding…as mentioned BEAM I closed out today as gains were just too much, too fast (out at a hair over 117 at lunch, stock at 109 now). VNT, eh, catalyst I was looking for at earnings didn’t really happen, I did exit some at a small profit, may bail the rest as I don’t like the chart.

    Some others I’ve put up here – GME, TRIP, TLRY – were trading positions….thinking about it, my moves on these and the two stocks above all have been driven by technicals…to me, that is another sign of an unhealthy market…when a market doesn’t know where to go but isn’t yet breaking down it falls back on technicals in the absence of anything else…I am salty on TRIP, put on a smart quick trade but have wanted it for the longer term, almost pulled that trigger on the position rather than the trade last week, didn’t, so of course it’s literally up almost 20% in these last four days (37.50 -> 44.70). I felt proud because I bagged 1% for renting some money out on it for three days…JFC.

    So, no new ideas….I do have a bunch of SPACs on from Dec-Jan, they’re hanging in there up about a blended 10-15% over the group and feeling good on those, but, again would not recommend those specific ones for new money now….I may run further down that rabbit hole, I tend to do them differently than others do, but don’t mind posting any names if I do.

    Otherwise, I’m tapped and reduced to screening for some technical setups and sorting through others’ recommendations to find wheat in chaff…makes me feel dirty and cheap since that is the antithesis of how I invest but, hey, tough times for new money….

    Lib, any new ideas? How’s the investment club?

  112. leftwing says:

    Anyone else’s tv co-opted by this biden presser?

    Have more words ever been mouthed without anything having been said?

    Jesus…

    If course cbs comes on to call it ‘a remarkable moment from our consoler in chief’. Lol.

  113. Juice Box says:

    Smoke em if you got em.. it’s legal now in NJ.

    Also for the under 21 crowd, Lawmakers voted to remove criminal penalties and only issue warnings to people under 21 caught with marijuana or alcohol.

  114. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Bubbles and taxes…two guarantees in life.

    Just remember, no matter how bad a situation looks, the sun will rise again.

  115. ExEssex says:

    Congrats. This is The Way.

  116. JCer says:

    That’s a weird listing in lake tahoe, the creepy mannequins alone would disqualify most from buying that dump. You don’t get much for 650k in Tahoe, even without the creepiness that’s a pretty dumpy house.

    Lib my go to’s for bootleg repair are steel cable and crimps and zip ties, also liquid nails and JBWeld. I fixed the tailgate of my truck with those 6 years ago, officially it has outlasted the factory latch cable and actuator! It was such a bear to take apart I figured leave it until it breaks again, then maybe I’ll replace with factory parts. You can approximate a fix for most things except internal engine parts with some combination of liquid nails, jbweld, steel cable/crimps, zip ties and duck tape.

  117. ExEssex says:

    Found BRT on that sweet Fender:

    https://youtu.be/UzgpB9xpyT8

  118. PumpkinFace says:

    You dk what your talking about the Fed has complete control

    The Great Pumpkin says:
    February 22, 2021 at 6:55 pm
    Bubbles and taxes…two guarantees in life.

    Just remember, no matter how bad a situation looks, the sun will rise again.

  119. Juice Box says:

    I have a zip tie holding on my evaporator valve. They go every couple of years and this time I snapped the bolt clean off, was too lazy to drill it out. Next time I change it I will take the time and drill it out.

    I will take anything apart and attempt to fix it myself. Cars, dryers, dishwashers, ovens, laptops and even iPads and iPhones.I have gotten quite good and replacing cracked screens.

  120. chicagofinance says:

    To even talk anything fundamental is a joke at this point. The distortion makes robust metrics horribly unreliable. The best we can manage is to just measure things on a relative basis. Alternatively use 2023 earnings so you can stomach the multiples. All I keep hearing is “re-rating”. Fine. That is whitewash, just like MMT.

    I refuse to believe Fama-French is obsolete. The problem is that we are bordering on 14 years of countering empirical evidence…..this just sucks.

    leftwing says:
    February 22, 2021 at 5:56 pm
    ….thinking about it, my moves on these and the two stocks above all have been driven by technicals…to me, that is another sign of an unhealthy market…when a market doesn’t know where to go but isn’t yet breaking down it falls back on technicals in the absence of anything else…

  121. chicagofinance says:

    Learned me something new….
    A new term for minorities (i.e. Asians and South Asians) that cannot be categorized as oppressed due to clear economic and societal progress. “white-adjacent”

  122. grim says:

    Go long Bob Marley

  123. ExEssex says:

    Go longer On Doritos.

  124. leftwing says:

    Talking inflation….haven’t bought Doritos since I’ve had a kid here a while back….they were $4 a bag today I noticed…..when the hell did that happen LOL

  125. ExEssex says:

    When they became an official food group.

  126. BRT says:

    You’ll really suffer when your kids are like 8 and they down the whole bag when you aren’t looking.

  127. Juice Box says:

    SPAC = SubPrime American Capitalism

    We bundle it up this way now, make sure to raise money before any irritating disclosures, like a real business plan.

  128. Chicago says:

    Juice: to be clear, the SPAC is alluring because it appears democratic in providing open access to all. But you have to believe the cost structure is an obscenity. I think it is the cost of carry issue; the longer you hold, the more you are bled out. However, that is an argument of fundamentals. And I just went on record saying fundamentals are meaningless in February 2021.

  129. Juice Box says:

    Oooof TSLA is down $100 a share now since yesterday.

  130. Juice Box says:

    LUCID air is worth $24 Billion because of the SPAC merger? Do they even have a road tested car they can sell?

    If it smells bad now just wait until lit really ripens.

  131. Libturd says:

    Elon Musk is an absolute genius at marketing himself. Though, I wouldn’t let him run a McDonald’s franchise if I owned it.

  132. grim says:

    So that’s it then? Pot possession arrests/stops are completely non-existent now?

  133. Juice Box says:

    Oooooof! I

    “Meanwhile, Tesla “is also the biggest position across all ARK Invest ETFs which added pressure to its biggest fund the ARK Disruptive Innovation Fund ARKK, -5.79% losing 6% yesterday. This is exactly the risk cluster that we have been worrying about and wrote about two weeks ago,” said the strategist.

    Read: Stocks aren’t in a bubble, but here’s what is, according to fund manager Cathie Wood

    In the Saxo note that deep-dived into the hugely popular, actively managed fund’s holdings, Garnry highlighted ARK’s concentration in biotech names that he said could be risky if the market decides to reverse. And Tesla shares represents 6.7% of total assets under management across ARK’s five actively managed ETFs, according to the data Saxo crunched two weeks ago.

    “What it means is, that a correction in equities for whatever reasons, could be higher interest rates or prolonged COVID-19 lockdowns, could set in motion selloffs across either biotechnology stocks or Tesla shares and cause performance to deteriorate which could start net outflow of AUM and then the feedback loop has started,” said Garnry, at the time.

    For her part, Wood, the chief executive of ARK Invest and manager of the popular ARK Innovation exchange-traded fund, last week said she was surprised by how fast companies are adopting bitcoin, and that her “confidence in Tesla has grown.”

  134. BRT says:

    Lib, that’s because you view your McDonald’s as a fast food establishment, and not an energy company.

  135. Juice Box says:

    Grim – The even passed a penalty for Cops in the new law, to remind them it’s hands off.

    Up to a $15,000 fine and up to five years in jail if they violate your “civil right” to toke, and they cannot stop you for even the smell of the smoke.

  136. Libturd says:

    BRT.

    You’re right!

  137. Juice Box says:

    Here is the hastily passed law yesterday. Police cannot stop the under 21 year old at all for the smell of alcohol or weed or hash or even if they see it! The cops will be subject to charges if they do.

    This is what they Social Justice Warriors wanted, and what held up the legislation. Police are to ignore the under 21 crowd on the corner smoking and drinking as well it was just too easy to arrest them, while the “white” kids all do in the basement of their homes like that 70s TV show…

    “(b)1 The odor of 1
    an alcoholic beverage,1
    1 marijuana, hashish,
    2 cannabis, or cannabis item, or burnt marijuana, hashish, cannabis,
    3 or cannabis item, shall not constitute reasonable articulable
    suspicion to initiate 1
    4 an investigatory stop of a person, nor shall it
    constitute probable cause to initiate1
    a search of a person 1
    5 or that
    person’s personal property1
    to determine a violation of 1
    6 [this
    7 subparagraph] paragraph (1) of this subsection. Additionally, the
    8 unconcealed possession of an alcoholic beverage, marijuana,
    9 hashish, or cannabis item in violation of paragraph (1) of this
    10 subsection, observed in plain sight by a law enforcement officer,
    11 shall not constitute probable cause to initiate a search of a person or
    12 that person’s personal property to determine any further violation of
    that paragraph or any other violation of law”

    “(d) A law enforcement officer shall be guilty of the crime of
    15 official deprivation of civil rights as set forth in section 3 of P.L. ,
    16 c. (C. ) (pending before the Legislature as this bill) for
    17 violating the provisions of paragraph (1) of this subsection that
    18 address law enforcement actions involving persons who are under
    the legal age to purchase alcoholic beverages or cannabis items.”

    https://www.njleg.state.nj.us/2020/Bills/A9999/5342_R1.PDF

  138. grim says:

    I feel like there is some gotcha that nobody is discussing yet. I’d read through the bill, but who has the time.

  139. Juice Box says:

    Chi – “And I just went on record saying fundamentals are meaningless in February 2021.”

    If every instinct you have is wrong then the opposite would have to be right.

    Great Seinfeld clip 80 seconds long.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RerJWv5vwxc

  140. Juice Box says:

    6 months for the commission to come up with rules and start issuing licenses for dispensaries. So technically if you have some and are stopped it’s not legal but then again are the cops going to do anything? I am sure the Attorney General needs a few minutes to in front of the TV cameras to order the cops around, he just has to wait until Gov Murphy gives him the ok to open his mouth.

  141. Libturd says:

    Can’t wait for this market open.

    BTW, I spoke with a Wall Street accountant last night. I asked him what tools the FED has to stop runaway inflation. He said, nothing he can think of besides raising the interest rate would cause a great depression due to our current dependance on debt.

    Good times ahead for all. Empty trains anyone?

  142. Juice Box says:

    From Washington Post this morning…

    SAN FRANCISCO — Elon Musk says he is stretched too thin.

    “The chief executive of both electric car manufacturer Tesla and rocket company SpaceX bounces nearly daily on his private jet between locations — traveling to his longtime home in southern California, Tesla’s plant in the Bay Area, the site of a new factory in Austin, Texas and SpaceX’s launch facility on that state’s Gulf Coast.

    Twice in a matter of days recently, the 49-year old complained of what he called an “insane” work schedule, juggling responsibilities with his car company and aerospace firm and taking in “torrents of information” in wall-to-wall meetings.

    But critics say the rigors of Musk’s personal schedule, and the seeming cult of personality that has developed around him, are beginning to show in the car company he runs — the one that he took from an upstart pioneer in electric vehicles to the world’s most valuable automaker. Musk, they say, is drowning in outside commitments like his aerospace company and other endeavors while letting quality — and strategy — at Tesla fall victim. And there are familiar concerns.”

    SKIP THE REST, and go right into the dis of his main space race competitor Jeff Bezos who stepped down running Amazon to focus on the space race.

    “Tesla did not respond to repeated requests for comment. In response to emails seeking comment, Musk replied only: “Give my regards to your puppet master.”

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/technology/2021/02/23/musk-tesla-texas/

  143. Chicago says:

    Do I see The Ten hitting 140? This thing will respond to Powell’s yammering. 21 minutes to go.

  144. Libturd says:

    The ARKK is taking on water. Better drop some ballast. Time to throw TSLA overboard?

    Fund is down 16% in two days.

  145. grim says:

    6 months for the commission to come up with rules and start issuing licenses for dispensaries. So technically if you have some and are stopped it’s not legal but then again are the cops going to do anything?

    Yeah, this is the interesting question in my mind. Nothing in the law requires that marijuana be purchased from a licensed NJ dispensary.

    Nor do I think it would be legal for them to exclude marijuana legally purchased outside of NJ (violate interstate commerce rules, etc).

  146. grim says:

    So what is it? Is it legal? Or is it not legal?

    Massachusetts dispensaries are just a quick drive north.

    You can’t argue that it’s not easily and legally procured in the area.

  147. The Great Pumpkin says:

    LOVE IT! I’m in the second month of dollar cost avg every month over the next 5-10 years. Give me those cheapies!! lmao I want a low avg. I knew this would happen too. Perfect timing to dollar cost avg on the long term.

    Libturd says:
    February 23, 2021 at 9:44 am
    The ARKK is taking on water. Better drop some ballast. Time to throw TSLA overboard?

    Fund is down 16% in two days.

  148. leftwing says:

    “Nor do I think it would be legal for them to exclude marijuana legally purchased outside of NJ (violate interstate commerce rules, etc).”

    Can’t even prove origin unless they are going to make everyone walk around with NJ purchase receipts, which they can’t even request under the law anyway?

  149. Juice Box says:

    Lib – runaway inflation?

    Where is the excess demand that would fuel inflation? Other than lumber and high end video cards for crypto mining?

    Consumer staples? I don’t see it, here.

    The dislocation will start with food in the third world, export driven economies. I have read all that avocado toast has made the avocado a better currency than bitcoin in the third world because of it’s value in exports. Orchards are regularly picked clean by gangs and used as a currency.

  150. The Great Pumpkin says:

    I hope she patiently waits and buys more tesla on the bottom….just like she did a couple years ago when noise that Tesla was running out of money hit the streets. She bought it all up on the cheap.

  151. Juice Box says:

    So far the NJ law says under 6 ounces no crime for adults. Over six ounces you are a dealer. You and the neighbors grow some backyard plants, you are a cartel.

  152. The Great Pumpkin says:

    She has said over and over that she expects a correction. She is aware of the 10 year yield. She will still come out on top. She is good, and one day you guys will respect what she has done here.

  153. Libturd says:

    Pumps. Last lesson.

    Dollar cost averaging is great when you get in cheap and your investment stays cheap for a while. DCA is terrible when you make your investment is expensive and then drops so much that everything you put in disappears.

    How’s AOL/TimeWarner doing today?

  154. leftwing says:

    Slight nuance to your friend’s take Lib….

    The endpoint for stopping rampant inflation is a severe recession…the recession is not the result of raising (ST) rates which halts inflation…..

    The Fed really only can control the short end of the curve. When inflation pops out of control (the long end) they can bang ST rates as hard as they want but that in and of itself won’t hit the long end.

    Only Rx for the runaway long end is to drive the economy into a wall. ST rates are how the Fed does it.

    May sound like a distinction without a difference, but it’s not….any fool (yeah, looking at you-know-who) thinking the Fed can not only micromanage inflation but control it through through ST rates is off his rocker….once it goes hot, the only way to kill the disease is to kill the patient. There is no “soft landing, let’s boost the overnight by 300bps” safety valve….

  155. Libturd says:

    Juice,

    Yes, we are far from runaway inflation. But our current society is so debt-dependant that you really can’t raise interest rates at all without killing the economy.

  156. Juice Box says:

    Pumps – Traditional investment strategies work until they don’t, same holds true on Opposite Days. Watch the Seinfeld clip and have a laugh, as it will be pants up demand from here on in.

    Did you not hear England issued a full opening date June 21st. All legal limits on social contact will be removed.

    https://www.bbc.com/news/explainers-52530518\

    What is Sleepy Joe gonna do now?

  157. BRT says:

    So I’m 72 hours removed from the 2nd shot and still destroyed. I think in the future, these mRNA vaccines will have to be a much lower dose possibly over several shots.

  158. Libturd says:

    Interesting Leftwing. I see the nuance. Though it hardly changes the end game of my argument. :P Though it does give me something to think about. I do tend to simplify things to drain out the noise.

  159. 30 year realtor says:

    Legalization has never been about buying pot legally for me. Tons of great weed available through black market if you have the right connections. Knowing I can smoke a joint in my backyard or walking down the street without getting busted is wonderful!

  160. Libturd says:

    BRT,

    On the bright side, think of what Covid would have done to you!

  161. Juice Box says:

    Lib – I cite Bernake’s work on the subject all the time, which is basically we will not live long enough to find out…..We are Japan now. They did not have runaway inflation.

    When you cannot raise rates what is the plan? The plan is to add demand.

    How does another 140 million mouths to feed and house sound to you for demand, the pants up kind of demand?

  162. Libturd says:

    It sounds pretty sh1tty.

  163. leftwing says:

    “Dollar cost averaging is great when you get in cheap and your investment stays cheap for a while. DCA is terrible when you make your investment is expensive and then drops so much that everything you put in disappears.”

    Dude, why do even try?

    He is cheerleading a 16% decline in his investment so he can buy more. LOL. Fcuking brilliant investment strategy, put money into something hoping it declines.

    Don’t have my HP-12C nearby but I’m pretty sure by definition you’re still in the hole until it turns, LOLOL.

    Guess he’ll make it up on volume…. :)

    And this (il)logic of his is against the backdrop of him believing an increase in LT rates will help his long duration equities AND the manager of the fund he’s buying going on the national business channel saying she’s sourcing cash as she expects a downturn.

    Clear buy signals that we the great unwashed must be missing….

    It’s pancake-in-a-can all over again….he can’t be wrong because he has a pathological need to be right and will twist whatever facts and contort logic to get to that safe space.

  164. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Lib, her whole basis is buying into companies that she believes can grow at least 15% a year. I’m serious, she is not a gimmick. She is doing something that has never been done before. She has created a network of experts (not only including her team) to come together on disruptive trends. The fund is actively traded. She buys at the bottom on the regular. If a stock doesn’t perform, she dumps.

    I think you guys are drastically underestimating how much knowledge she has gained from using technology to communicate on a daily basis with a network that is obsessed with disruptive tech. Why do you think she is totally transparent? That’s how she created the network. A willing to be open with her positions in exchange for discussion in disruptive tech within the network.

    These people know more than you and I will ever know about disruptive tech. She didn’t get lucky, she knows her stuff.

    Libturd says:
    February 23, 2021 at 9:54 am
    Pumps. Last lesson.

    Dollar cost averaging is great when you get in cheap and your investment stays cheap for a while. DCA is terrible when you make your investment is expensive and then drops so much that everything you put in disappears.

    How’s AOL/TimeWarner doing today?

  165. Libturd says:

    Yup. Can’t stand watching him blow his poor wife’s money.

  166. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Are you slow? I only bought two times. I am playing the long game. If the price drops this year hard, I am getting cheap shares. Do you understand this? You play the short game, I’m playing it long. You don’t get it.

    “Dude, why do even try?

    He is cheerleading a 16% decline in his investment so he can buy more. LOL. Fcuking brilliant investment strategy, put money into something hoping it declines.”

  167. Juice Box says:

    1980s Japan was a long time ago now. The grounds of the imperial palace were said to be worth more than the entire state of California. It was a massive era of opulence in Japan when the champagne flowed. They were projecting the Nikkei-225 would reach the level of 100,000 it did soar to 39,000. Supported by low BOJ interest rates, and property prices also soared. Then it all crashed. Now the largest shareholder of Nikkei stocks is the BOJ. They are the market.

    Today, what is different? What do they have? Their youth do not travel abroad, you rarely run into Japanese here anymore. Their youth do not buy new cars. Their youth save money. They never know if they are going to work today as they are now a gig economy. They don’t get married, they don’t have kids as population is not replacing itself.

    But they don’t allow immigration. That was their mistake.

    No worries Sleepy Joe has a plan, tear down those walls. This is American after all so

    “Give me your tired, your poor,

    Your huddled masses yearning to breathe free,

    The wretched refuse of your teeming shore.

    Send these, the homeless, tempest-tost to me,

    I lift my lamp beside the golden door!”

  168. leftwing says:

    “What is Sleepy Joe gonna do now?”

    Exactly what he did last night at the 500 candle ceremony…..

    Establish a theatrical backdrop, have spouse and VP props, stare earnestly while mumbling his script into the camera, string together a bunch of meaningless non-sequiturs like ‘people are dying’ and ‘to heal we must remember’, exit, and expect the MSM to fawn all over you.

    Which they will.

    Wash, rinse, repeat.

    But he doesn’t say anything mean and like Clinton he said last night “I know what it’s like” so, hey, everything is OK!

  169. Juice Box says:

    I actually have a Japanese piano a Kawai built in 1986. It’s really awesome has beautiful tone and resonance and it’s now worth double what I paid for it…

  170. Phoenix says:

    “But they don’t allow immigration. That was their mistake.”

    No, their mistake is the youth not marrying and having children of their own. And it’s the adults that create the situations that cause these issues.

    Having a child is a wonderful experience I would never give up for anything in the world.

    Some might beg to differ. It’s my opinion.

  171. Hold me beer says:

    I suspect there are two neighborhood group chats. One with flying ted’s wife and the neighbors, another one with everyone in first chat besides flying ted’s family and their sycophants.

    https://nypost.com/2021/02/23/ted-cruz-says-heidi-is-pretty-pissed-over-leaked-cancun-texts/

  172. Phoenix says:

    Left,
    Watched Biden during a break yesterday.

    Totally clueless. Maybe able to connect with his own generation, but no one else.
    Sounded like a dried up cheerleader minus the skirt, energy, looks, and anything else you would look at a cheerleader for.

    It was like watching someone dial a rotary telephone while programming the VCR for the Ed Sullivan show.

  173. Phoenix says:

    HMB,

    Heidi is the reason he went. She was the troublemaker. Behind every effed up man is an effed up woman.

  174. Libturd says:

    It is funny, and well deserved, but it’s plain wrong and just another symptom of our damaged country.

  175. chicagofinance says:

    Stu: The fire hose is still on….

    Libturd says:
    February 23, 2021 at 9:44 am
    The ARKK is taking on water. Better drop some ballast. Time to throw TSLA overboard?

    Fund is down 16% in two days.

  176. Phoenix says:

    HMB,
    Yeah, that’s funny. Know what isn’t? This. It’s out of print now, but I have a copy. Would be quite effective and simple to deploy. All high school boys should read this in order to graduate.

    https://www.amazon.com/How-Destroy-Man-Now-DAMN/dp/099982032X

  177. joyce says:

    hahahaha

    BRT says:
    February 23, 2021 at 8:59 am
    Lib, that’s because you view your McDonald’s as a fast food establishment, and not an energy company.

  178. leftwing says:

    No, Pumps, nothing here about me, it’s all about your foolish positions…..

    “I’m serious, she is not a gimmick. She is doing something that has never been done before.”

    Absolutely childish comment revealing an entire lack of knowledge or any awareness of markets.

    “The fund is actively traded. She buys at the bottom on the regular.”

    False. You don’t even do the minimum of diligence to support your positions do you? In fact, one of the managerial ‘red flags’ I referenced the other day was because she was doing the exact opposite of what you posit (errr, I mean pull out of your ass).

    “If a stock doesn’t perform, she dumps.”

    Again, factually incorrect. While I have only been following her trades daily for the last month this statement is simply not true.

    It is truly amazing how you just make sh1t up and blurt it out.

  179. chicagofinance says:

    Is the gubernatorial election this year? I’m not sure….. oh yes that’s right.

    WSJ
    New Jersey Gov. Phil Murphy is expected to propose making a full payment to the state’s chronically underfunded pension system for the first time since 1996, a sign that the blow from the pandemic to all states’ finances isn’t as brutal as officials originally feared.

    Mr. Murphy, a Democrat, will call for a $6.4 billion payment to the pension system in his budget address Tuesday, senior members of his administration said. The Murphy administration has been ramping up pension payments and originally intended on making a payment of $5.76 billion for the fiscal year that begins in July.

    In New Jersey, as in many other states, tax revenues have outperformed earlier projections. When the pandemic hit, states projected revenue would drop off significantly. State revenues ended up falling 1.6% in fiscal year 2020 and were 3.4% lower than projected before the pandemic, according to the National Association of State Budget Officers. While states expect revenues to fall 4.4% in fiscal 2021, which ends on June 30 for most, 18 states are seeing revenues come in above forecasts.

    Federal aid for businesses and households helped prop up incomes and consumer spending across the U.S. Unemployment fell and economic activity picked up much faster than expected.

    State and local budget shortfalls have been at the center of discussions in Washington since last spring over what to include in another economic relief package.

    Congress has provided state and local governments more than $300 billion in federal aid, including grants for education and higher federal matching funds for Medicaid, though the funds came with restrictions on how they could be spent. Democrats are now proposing $350 billion in flexible funding to plug state and local budget holes, a provision Republicans have opposed.

    Mr. Murphy’s pension payment proposal, which will be included in broader budget discussions with the Democratic-led legislature that formally kick off Tuesday, doesn’t use any federal stimulus funds, the officials said. And making a full pension payment for the upcoming fiscal year isn’t contingent on raising taxes, they said.

    “With this payment, we are keeping our word to hundreds of thousands of retirees who have paid into their pensions even while past administrations continually kicked the can down the road,” Mr. Murphy said. “I am proud that we are able to finally meet our obligations without attacking the middle class and slashing services.”

    In the spring of 2020, New Jersey budget officials expected tax revenue would fall during the economic crisis fueled by the Covid-19 pandemic. And while some revenue streams are down, others like sale-tax revenue—driven by holiday shopping—and state lottery revenue are doing better than anticipated. Federal stimulus has also infused more money in the state.

    The improved financial picture means the state could avoid the most painful of spending cuts that many feared would be on the table this budget year.

    Many past administrations, led by both Democrats and Republicans, failed to make full payments or skipped payments altogether, increasing the burden on the state to make up those contributions in the future and making New Jersey’s pension system one of the worst funded in the country, according to the Pew Charitable Trusts.

    New Jersey’s $71.9 billion in unfunded pension liabilities has also put pressure on the state’s credit rating. Both S&P Global Ratings and Fitch Ratings downgraded New Jersey’s debt in 2020, citing the state’s high pension obligations, and projected weak revenue growth stemming from the pandemic.

    Last year, New Jersey borrowed $4.5 billion to help pay for operating expenses at the same time it made the $4.77 billion pension payment, drawing objections from some Republicans. The Murphy administration has defended its approach, saying it made financial sense to take advantage of low interest rates and take on more debt, rather than cutting spending more deeply or making a smaller pension contribution.

  180. chicagofinance says:

    “it’s different this time”

    leftwing says:
    February 23, 2021 at 10:57 am
    No, Pumps, nothing here about me, it’s all about your foolish positions…..

    “I’m serious, she is not a gimmick. She is doing something that has never been done before.”

    Absolutely childish comment revealing an entire lack of knowledge or any awareness of markets.

  181. joyce says:

    Regarding not being able to stop someone with pot/alcohol, does it effectively overturn all of the open container laws? walking around with a drink, not talking about driving

  182. Phoenix says:

    It is funny, and well deserved, but it’s plain wrong and just another symptom of our damaged country.

    It’s what you do when you can’t get justice or results any other way. It’s what you do when the person you pay their salary spits in your face while you suffer.

    It is a symptom of a damaged country. One that is trying it’s best to become a 3rd world one.
    And don’t blame the children. Or the TikTockers that mock these stupid old effers.

    At this point I’d rather have a middle schooler elected as President.

  183. The Great Pumpkin says:

    For Christ’s sake, she does not value a stock on the same basis as you. Understand this. If she hasn’t dumped, she sees it as a value.

    You are absolutely bashing an individual that has taken multiple funds and beat the S&P 500 on a regular basis.

    “If a stock doesn’t perform, she dumps.”

    Again, factually incorrect. While I have only been following her trades daily for the last month this statement is simply not true.

    It is truly amazing how you just make sh1t up and blurt it out.

  184. chicagofinance says:

    Are you familiar with Bill Miller and how he tossed his career in the garbage?

    The Great Pumpkin says:
    February 23, 2021 at 10:23 am
    Lib, her whole basis is buying into companies that she believes can grow at least 15% a year. I’m serious, she is not a gimmick. She is doing something that has never been done before. She has created a network of experts (not only including her team) to come together on disruptive trends. The fund is actively traded. She buys at the bottom on the regular. If a stock doesn’t perform, she dumps.

    I think you guys are drastically underestimating how much knowledge she has gained from using technology to communicate on a daily basis with a network that is obsessed with disruptive tech. Why do you think she is totally transparent? That’s how she created the network. A willing to be open with her positions in exchange for discussion in disruptive tech within the network.

    These people know more than you and I will ever know about disruptive tech. She didn’t get lucky, she knows her stuff.

  185. The Great Pumpkin says:

    You guys were bashing Tesla. Lefty was talking about the easy short. She was buying.

    Understand this…

  186. Phoenix says:

    Joyce,
    Don’t know. But some better be careful, including those in my profession. I have no desire-but some with professional licenses best not be caught using even if its legal for the general public.

    Shoprite workers toke up!

  187. chicagofinance says:

    WSJ
    The Stock Picker’s Defeat
    By Tom Lauricella
    Dec. 10, 2008

    William H. Miller spent nearly two decades building his reputation as the era’s greatest mutual-fund manager. Then, over the past year, he destroyed it.

    Fueled by winning bets on stocks other investors feared, Mr. Miller’s Legg Mason Value Trust outperformed the broad market every year from 1991 to 2005. It’s a streak no other fund manager has come close to matching.

    Mr. Miller was in his element a year ago when troubles in the housing market began infecting financial markets. Working from his well-worn playbook, he snapped up American International Group Inc., Wachovia Corp. , Bear Stearns Cos. and Freddie Mac. As the shares continued to fall, he argued that investors were overreacting. He kept buying.

    What he saw as an opportunity turned into the biggest market crash since the Great Depression. Many Value Trust holdings were more or less wiped out. After 15 years of placing savvy bets against the herd, Mr. Miller had been trampled by it.

    The financial crisis has created losers across the spectrum — homeowners who can’t afford their subprime mortgages, banks that loaned to them, investors who bought mortgage-backed securities and, as financial markets eventually crumbled, just about everyone who owned shares. But it has also brought low contrarians like Mr. Miller who had been lionized for staying a step ahead of the market. This meltdown has provided a lesson for Mr. Miller and other “value” investors: A stock may look tantalizingly cheap, but sometimes that’s for good reason.

    “The thing I didn’t do, from Day One, was properly assess the severity of this liquidity crisis,” Mr. Miller, 58 years old, said in an interview at Legg Mason Inc.’s Baltimore headquarters.

    Mr. Miller has profited from investor panics before. But this time, he said, he failed to consider that the crisis would be so severe, and the fundamental problems so deep, that a whole group of once-stalwart companies would collapse. “I was naive,” he said.

    A year ago, his Value Trust fund had $16.5 billion under management. Now, after losses and redemptions, it has assets of $4.3 billion, according to Morningstar Inc. Value Trust’s investors have lost 58% of their money over the past year, 20 percentage points worse than the decline on the Standard & Poor’s 500 stock index.

    These losses have wiped away Value Trust’s years of market-beating performance. The fund is now among the worst-performing in its class for the last one-, three-, five- and 10-year periods, according to Morningstar.

    “Why didn’t I just throw my money out of the window — and light it on fire?” says Peter Cohan, a management consultant and venture-capital investor who owns Value Trust shares. Mr. Miller’s strategy, he says, “worked for a long time, but it’s broken.”

    Mr. Miller’s picks read like a Who’s Who of the stock market’s biggest losers: Washington Mutual Inc., Countrywide Financial Corp. and Citigroup Inc.

    “Every decision to buy anything has been wrong,” Mr. Miller said over lunch at a private club housed inside Legg’s headquarters. In the 16th-floor dining room, Mr. Miller sat with his back against the wall, a preference he says he picked up as a U.S. Army intelligence officer in the 1970s. “It’s been awful,” he said.

  188. Libturd says:

    Nothing like borrowing to pay a pension. That makes sense.

    Maybe I’ll run down to Chase and will take out a home equity loan to fund my IRA. Interest rates are low!

  189. Phoenix says:

    Looks like the right time to post an oldie but goodie. One of my favorites of all time.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LG-Z-kYSC4s

    And this,
    I thought this was very creative. With the old puss face in the back.
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YWnUmpQhiOw

  190. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Beware the value traps.. listen to Cathie.

    Investors Beware: Stay On The Right Side Of Change

    https://ark-invest.com/articles/market-commentary/investors-beware/

    “This meltdown has provided a lesson for Mr. Miller and other “value” investors: A stock may look tantalizingly cheap, but sometimes that’s for good reason.”

  191. leftwing says:

    You’re on fire today….

    “It was like watching someone dial a rotary telephone while programming the VCR for the Ed Sullivan show.”

    Yeah, the ‘deal’ I made with myself was I didn’t mind Team Blue taking the WH in exchange for getting rid of Orange and keeping the Senate. The Toxic Orange Bloom fcuked up the ‘quo’ of that quid-pro-quo though…If everything had to go Blue at least it’s Joe in the Oval Office, totally agree with your assessment, he’s drying paint and I’m happy with it. Chr1st, could you imagine if Warren, Clinton, or someone else with an agenda and fight were in there?

    “Heidi is the reason he went. She was the troublemaker. Behind every effed up man is an effed up woman.”

    LOL, thought exactly the same thing and thought of you when it crossed my mind. No other explanation, Cruz is smart enough to know the optics of what he was doing. She must have seriously been up his ass sideways.

  192. The Great Pumpkin says:

    That’s right, ARK! Roaring 20’s.

    “So, investors beware. According to our research, innovation is evolving at such a rapid pace that traditional equity and fixed income benchmarks are being populated increasingly by so-called value traps, stocks and bonds that are “cheap” for a reason. Critical to investment success will be moving to the right side of change, avoiding industries and companies in the crosshairs of “creative destruction” and embracing those creating “disruptive innovation”… and perhaps another shot at the Roaring Twenties.”

  193. Phoenix says:

    And the last one. It rings true.
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Vm5WMEv3moM

  194. The Great Pumpkin says:

    More broadly, if our forecasts for the five innovation platforms are near the mark, nominal GDP growth in the US is likely to slow from 4.1% at an annual rate during the past five years to 2-3%, regaining momentum only after new technologies and solutions gain enough critical mass to move the economic needle. Both volume growth and inflation are likely to surprise on the low side of expectations as market share shifts to the mismeasured digital world and as the “good” deflation associated with technology takes hold. We believe the winners will win in a big way but losers, particularly those that have levered balance sheets to satisfy certain stakeholders, will unwind. While risk-free interest rates are likely to remain low, credit spreads could respond dramatically as disruptive innovation – the likes of which we have not seen since the telephone, electricity, and the automobile burst on the scene in the “Roaring Twenties” – causes significant dislocations.

  195. chicagofinance says:

    Dude….. we all use the same inherent tools and approach…. our assumptions differ… but you would not understand that concept…. at bottom, everything is a DCF, even in shorthand or some warped bastardized form.

    The Great Pumpkin says:
    February 23, 2021 at 11:01 am
    For Christ’s sake, she does not value a stock on the same basis as you. Understand this. If she hasn’t dumped, she sees it as a value.

  196. Fast Eddie says:

    So, Trump delivers a vaccine in unprecedented time… from an unknown pandemic to delivery in a matter of months and this current regime meanders around, unable to deliver the vaccine in quantity as we surpass 500,000 deaths. O’Biden said he has a plan which those of us with a brain knew was a political stunt for the progressive muppets. He’s a disaster in record time… one month into his regime and displaying zero leadership surrounded by inept advisers.

  197. Libturd says:

    ARKK’s price recovered a bit.

    If you think down 13% when the Nasd was down 3% was bad, just wait until the market corrects and everyone bails from their FAANGS and ARKKs to put their money back into value priced staples. If market corrects 20% these names are all likely going to drop 40 to 60% easy. There is no risk management whatsoever in these funds. To meet the demand and to avoid basically owning all of the shares of the best of breed in each sector she focuses on, she must buy some crappy names too. What she going to do when the levy breaks? Move the entire fund into a money market?

  198. Phoenix says:

    Left,
    A woman could lie at a bar, claimed some guy touched her butt and 30 men will spend years in prison for killing the “perp” who never touched her at all.

    Cruz did the old “yes, dear,” and against his better judgment, bought tickets on the estrogen train and off to airport he went-all knowing how stupid it was, but hey, happy wife, happy life, right?? When I questioned dumb things my ex did, I was a non supportive bas ter d. She would say things about what she did at work that made me cringe. Well, recently heard she is no longer employed there, and it was one hell of a good gig with great hours and a pension. Guess without her a hole ex husband (me) to temper her stupidity she finally poured the gas and lit the match there. What a muppet.

  199. chicagofinance says:

    My two “a-ha” moments in finance….
    (1) third quarter as a first year at Chicago in the Harper breakout rooms: debt has a market value, not just accounting/book value.
    (2) getting a primer on AT&T’s swap portfolio and realizing that all financial instruments are just a set of contractual terms….. so there are clear (spot) cash flows of anything (bonds, stocks, leases, derivatives), and then you value everything through the lense of current conditions, or whatever lense you want (e.g., stress test).

    It is liberating to understand, because you can strip away all the noise and look at the heart of the issue.

  200. leftwing says:

    “You are absolutely bashing an individual that has taken multiple funds and beat the S&P 500 on a regular basis.”

    So what is the above, Exhibit H on your stupidity?

    S&P is irrelevant to comparative performance for her, especially given your own assertions of her investing style.

    If you want to comp her performance first proform TSLA out, or demonstrate that (i) there will be another large cap stock that moves 25x in 24 months and (ii) that she will be there at the low and high..

    Point is her returns are overwhelmingly skewed by one stock which performance is demonstrably not repeatable with any degree of confidence.

    Then, take the remainder of her positions and compare them to an aggregation of similar long duration equities in which she did not invest…in other words, did her picks outperform the relative comps or was a rising tide just lifting all boats. That is a VERY important analysis as it tells you whether you are simply putting new money to work in a proxy for a certain type of equity (by all indications moving into short term disfavor) or if she is actually differentiated.

    But, you will likely not even understand the above let alone do it. Much easier just to cheerlead.

    And, btw, I was 5 for 6 on TSLA situations that were REPEATBLE. One long at least, when he came out immediately before the weekend and stated he was not taking the SEC settlement. Those were some of my best investments ever, in terms of gross dollars and risk/reward ratio, and it was a very sad day when he stopped tweeting about the business.

  201. chicagofinance says:

    Never Let Me Down Again
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fOEQTJV_3-w

    Libturd says:
    February 23, 2021 at 11:22 am
    What she going to do when the levy breaks?

  202. chicagofinance says:

    Murphy is such a piece of sh!t…. buying votes on the pension; buying votes with making NJ much more dangerous….. low grade scumbag

  203. The Great Pumpkin says:

    How did her funds perform when the levy broke last year?

    Libturd says:
    February 23, 2021 at 11:22 am
    ARKK’s price recovered a bit.

    If you think down 13% when the Nasd was down 3% was bad, just wait until the market corrects and everyone bails from their FAANGS and ARKKs to put their money back into value priced staples. If market corrects 20% these names are all likely going to drop 40 to 60% easy. There is no risk management whatsoever in these funds. To meet the demand and to avoid basically owning all of the shares of the best of breed in each sector she focuses on, she must buy some crappy names too. What she going to do when the levy breaks? Move the entire fund into a money market?

  204. Phoenix says:

    Chi,
    I like what I do, but you and left are really making me think about a career change.

  205. The Great Pumpkin says:

    STFU with this. She is the best investor out there right now. Keep bashing. She beat the hell out of everyone. That’s why they are all rushing to try and copy cat.

    “Then, take the remainder of her positions and compare them to an aggregation of similar long duration equities in which she did not invest…in other words, did her picks outperform the relative comps or was a rising tide just lifting all boats. That is a VERY important analysis as it tells you whether you are simply putting new money to work in a proxy for a certain type of equity (by all indications moving into short term disfavor) or if she is actually differentiated.”

  206. Phoenix says:

    “Murphy is such a piece of sh!t…. buying votes on the pension; buying votes with making NJ much more dangerous….. low grade scumbag”

    Chillax. Toke up a bit. Don’t let ratchet Murphy get to you. Everyone knows he is sus. Don’t go all Stan on Murphy. It’s good, however, that you are woke about him. You are way to salty.

    You got steez. Enjoy.

  207. Phoenix says:

    Hey Pumps,
    Not sure what you teach, but here is some really great writing about those in your profession. It’s a yearly thing. He makes the subject interesting. But since you are “connected” do you have anything you can contribute?

    https://www.barstoolsports.com/blog/1181156/2018-sex-scandal-teacher-starting-lineup

  208. leftwing says:

    “STFU with this. She is the best investor out there right now. Keep bashing. She beat the hell out of everyone. That’s why they are all rushing to try and copy cat.”

    And out comes the petulant eight year old right on cue…..

    No analytics or reasoned response, just re-iteration of assertions unsupported by fact……

    Very. Slowly. For. Our. Teacher. To. Understand.

    I gave you the roadmap to determine if she is in fact the ‘best investor out there’ and ‘beat the hell out of everyone’. Those statements are the endpoints to be determined, not the starting conclusion….

  209. Libturd says:

    Leftwing,

    Buffet made it all with GEICO. But for him, it wasn’t write place write time. It was an incredibly smart bet since insurers never lose. Now TSLA? It was a very safe bet when the government was flush with cash and provided endless subsidies. Where will the money come from when the subsidies end? Where will the consumers come from when they are mired in a depression/long recession? Who is paying extra to save the world when they are struggling to put food on the table. I’d rather be in General Mills.

    Oh right. It’s different this time.

  210. JCer says:

    left, Pumps equates “luck” with skill or being the best.

    As for Ted Cruz, really who cares he’s a Senator, not the governor not in the executive branch, hell he spends most of his time in DC anyway. Yes he didn’t suffer like his constituents but these people never do and he had literally 0 to do with he policies that resulted in disaster. If Booker or Menedez disappeared from NJ in the middle of a disaster I view it no differently. Even if Cruz stayed in Texas he wouldn’t have done anything to help and likely would have had things at his disposal average Texans would not have, let not pretend it wouldn’t have been 72 degrees inside the Cruz household while regular folks were freezing. So what we are really saying is we want our politicians to pretend to be “suffering” like their constituents….this is far more honest, the tax payer is suffering and the politician goes on vacation that’s the way it always is.

  211. ExEssex says:

    11:59 Toyota will quietly bury Tesla with longer range batteries and better QC.

  212. The Great Pumpkin says:

    I don’t expect a response, but where should the smart money go right now? So it’s written in stone.

    You guys are bears. You are also value based. That’s why it’s hard to take your advice on ARK.

  213. The Great Pumpkin says:

    You basically make it seem like the sky is falling, and why invest…

  214. leftwing says:

    “So what we are really saying is we want our politicians to pretend to be “suffering” like their constituents…”

    LOL. See my post above on Joe’s 500 candles presser yesterday…..

    Orange Man was not elected because he was mean (but truthful), he didn’t give a sh1t about anyone really except himself and family.

    Demented Grandpa knocks him out because he “feels our pain” while also not caring.

    Craziest thing for me is most of the population know Grandpa is lying, which yeah leads to the inevitable and irrational conclusion that people want to be lied to.

    I never understood it. But then I don’t understand most people anyway.

  215. JCer says:

    Lib a recession for Tesla is bad news, they need to sell a lot of $100k cars to make money, what happens when the car market collapses? No amount of technical prowess and intellectual property can save you when the revenue disappears, it’s a capital intensive business with a lot of credit. Mind you I think Musk is really good, he runs his companies like an engineer. I was a buyer when tesla stock was in the toilet(the whole musk smoking weed episode), long term though I don’t see the battery powered car as the future, it’s a toy for rich people, we don’t have the infrastructure and there are LOT of unresolved problems with the technology.

    Then again I’m a bottom feeder, I thought Boeing was going to recover(that was a very bad purchase), I bought Ford cheap but sold too quickly didn’t make a good gain, I bought Carnival stock cheap ~$8 but didn’t buy enough. Pretty much I like to buy companies people think are going down, It has worked for me a few have gone bust but I’ve made pretty big returns buying depressed stocks, I’m still holding apple stock from 1997, I invested like a thousand bucks it’s worth 250k today, if only I had some more money to invest at the time…. I also just tend to put the majority in broad ETF’s and a basket of stable stocks, I play on the periphery with a little money.

  216. leftwing says:

    “I don’t expect a response, but where should the smart money go right now? So it’s written in stone. You guys are bears. You are also value based. That’s why it’s hard to take your advice on ARK. You basically make it seem like the sky is falling, and why invest…”

    Again, no.

    There are two things that matter when looking at returns…how did they get there, and is it repeatable. You have put zero effort into either question. Actually, it’s not apparent that you are even aware you should be asking those two key questions.

    My portfolio and trading? I’m incredibly transparent here…neither bull nor bear because of the hijacking of the market by fiscal and monetary policy stated over and over again by the majority of investors on here. I trade the market in front of me – ie, answer those two key questions at each point in time. It’s why I followed your goddess into BEAM at 96 (and got out yesterday at 117 while it trades at 93 right now), why I write puts into volatility of stocks I want to ultimately own, use SPACs as a money market substitute, hedge my gains, etc., etc.

    Chi had an outstanding analogy yesterday to a blackjack table and its bettors playing a game where the dealer needs to hit until 21 or bust. Read and understand that if you don’t understand what people are saying here about areas of the market now.

  217. joyce says:

    leftwing,

    Stop, please. Thank you

  218. JCer says:

    Left, Orange Man lost because he did not appear competent(the covid pandemic really cemented this view) and seemed very volatile, I think the covid crisis made a lot of people think it would be better to have someone stable in office. If not for Covid Trump would have sailed to re-election, it would not have been close Trump likely still gets 70m votes and voter turnout would be very, very low, Gramps Biden would have lost in a landslide people don’t vote and certainly don’t vote against the incumbent when the economy is good.

  219. Libturd says:

    JCER,

    Most of us (I hope) are playing the broad ETF strategy. I’ve only made three really big bets in individual names in my life (about 25% of my portfolio at the time). I am maybe 20% individual names in my equity portfolio and much of it is in retirement accounts. Real estate makes up about 40% of my net worth so I have that diversification going for me. Less than seven more years and all mortgages are paid off too. I have so many different accounts, I occasionally forget about a few of them, only to be reminded they exist at tax time. :P

  220. JCer says:

    Yes we all should stop feeding the resident troll……it’s so hard not too though

  221. The Great Pumpkin says:

    You claimed she was a product of a rising tide. Well, how did she beat everyone over the last 6 years?

    It’s funny, she caught a ton of crap during the early years of her funds. Everyone telling her that she is doing it wrong. That Tesla is a joke investment…blah blah blah. Who was the winner? Who called the exact price it would hit? 4000. They all laughed at her and it happened. Rising tides, right.

    leftwing says:
    February 23, 2021 at 11:48 am
    “STFU with this. She is the best investor out there right now. Keep bashing. She beat the hell out of everyone. That’s why they are all rushing to try and copy cat.”

    And out comes the petulant eight year old right on cue…..

    No analytics or reasoned response, just re-iteration of assertions unsupported by fact……

  222. The Great Pumpkin says:

    This reminds me of you guys constantly telling me I was wrong about real estate from 2012-2018. You guys mocked me. Who was right? You guys were claiming bust every year…

    It’s amazing how you guys disrespect me here. It’s amazing how you disrespect cathie woods. It is what it is…you guys mock Musk too. Seem to like bashing winners.

  223. Libturd says:

    Back on ignore for me, until Tesla goes sub 200. Then I’ll do an encore, “I told you so.”

  224. The Great Pumpkin says:

    3b would go on and on that I know nothing about real estate, that I wasn’t in corporate. I was only a dumb teacher. He would tell me over and over that suburbs are dead, and that I just don’t get it. You are right, I didn’t understand your stupidity. Think about that the next time you claim I know nothing and laugh at my position.

  225. Hold my beer says:

    JCer

    Cruz is insufferable. Even the other Senators can’t stand him. He mocked California for their blackouts during the fire season. Two years ago he was boasting about the lack of regulations for Texas utilities. Now he claims we need regulations. He’s a flip flopper to quote shrub 2.0. He could have reached out to his campaign volunteers to see if any were available to make calls to seniors, disabled, high risk people needed emergency aid like Beto did. But he claimed he was trying to be a good dad. He’s such an a hole he doesn’t realize he’s an a hole.

  226. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Admit that you trade and don’t invest. I’m a long term investor. Look how long I was screaming to buy houses in the suburbs when it was not en vogue. Claiming you will be paid off in the 2020’s if you buy now (circa 2013). Long term investor here. I don’t need to know all the technical bs, I just have to understand the long term fundamentals that matter to me. I understood demographics and the economic cycle, and have been right so far.

    “My portfolio and trading? I’m incredibly transparent here…neither bull nor bear because of the hijacking of the market by fiscal and monetary policy stated over and over again by the majority of investors on here. I trade the market in front of me – ie, answer those two key questions at each point in time. It’s why I followed your goddess into BEAM at 96 (and got out yesterday at 117 while it trades at 93 right now), why I write puts into volatility of stocks I want to ultimately own, use SPACs as a money market substitute, hedge my gains, etc., etc.”

  227. The Great Pumpkin says:

    You were wrong on tesla for the past 10 years. You are wrong now.

    Libturd says:
    February 23, 2021 at 12:43 pm
    Back on ignore for me, until Tesla goes sub 200. Then I’ll do an encore, “I told you so.”

  228. JCer says:

    Lib, it’s not how the rich play the game, they’ll put hard capital up on the hopes they can triple or quadruple their investment short term. They are way more comfortable with risk hence they were able to get rich.

    I’m way over invested in real estate and a lot of it is the NJ variety, it represents at over half of my net worth counting reits not just physical property and partnerships it’s probably 65%, too many tax implications(most were the result of UP Reits so fully convertible but totally depreciated with a lot of capital gains) to sell out of the reits plus they throw off nice income.

  229. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Lib,

    You are a good value investor and good at protecting your base investor. You are not a get rich investor. You were too conservative over the last 13 years.

  230. leftwing says:

    “Stop, please. Thank you”

    yeah, I know….spent five years literally ignoring him, not even reading the posts, don’t know how I got sucked back in…

    One last comment then back to ignore…

    “You claimed she was a product of a rising tide. Well, how did she beat everyone over the last 6 years?”

    No dumbass…..I said given the space she is in everyone is a winner (ie, dealer always breaks). I then also said in order to determine if she is a real good player or just at a table that wasn’t allowed to lose you need to do some diligence.

    And, I called you out to demonstrate that she “beat everyone over the last six years”. You, of course did not. I pulled up her charts, she didn’t beat the QQQ for the first three years. Doesn’t make her good, bad or otherwise. She caught a hot table in mid-2017 with everyone else. Looks like the pit boss is coming over and instilling regular rules now.

    So is she an ace player or not? You don’t know, don’t even know which questions to ask, and are too lazy to put in the work if you did.

    Done with you, no more direct responses. GL. Seriously.

  231. The Great Pumpkin says:

    You are too worried about losing that you end up losing way more in lost opportunities.

  232. The Great Pumpkin says:

    She is long term. She makes drastic amounts when the trend finally hits. So don’t worry about the year to year bs, what is it over 6 year?

    “And, I called you out to demonstrate that she “beat everyone over the last six years”. You, of course did not. I pulled up her charts, she didn’t beat the QQQ for the first three years. Doesn’t make her good, bad or otherwise. She caught a hot table in mid-2017 with everyone else. Looks like the pit boss is coming over and instilling regular rules now.”

  233. JCer says:

    hold, yes he is an a-hole, but so is Beto O’dork. It goes back to pretending to care, both of these people are sociopaths but Cruz owns it. Enjoy deregulation while you have it, once the government gets involved they never leave, it will be coming and you’ll be paying for it forever…..

    As bad as it is CA should be mocked for their blackouts, their green energy policy is a disaster waiting to happen. Natural gas is the solution and the pipelines to supply it.

  234. JCer says:

    Pumps a lot of us play the conservative game. We’ve seen way to many people get obliterated in the tech bubble crash in 2000 and the bank stock crash in 2008. If I lose 500k or 1m it’s curtains I’ll be working until i’m 90, it’s the smart play. Sure if I were aggressive I could probably retire at 45 or 50 but is the risk worth it?

  235. The Great Pumpkin says:

    That’s the big question.

    Problem is, if everyone was ultra conservative in their approach to life, we would not be where we are. The Musks of the world take risks. They are so confident in their approach to life that they are not afraid to lose it all, they know they will make it all back.

    I love the apple story. Steve jobs was kicked out of his own company. What did he do, came back stronger than before.

    Life needs balance. There is not a correct way to invest. You have to do what works for you and your personality. That’s why I said when I was entering ARK last month, it was not for the faint of heart. I can handle it at this age. If I lose it all, I’ll still be fine in life. I like my chances that she hits it out of the park in the next 10 years. If it fails, at least I tried. When I get to 60, I won’t be able to take this chance. So I’m going to take it now. I missed out on serious money way too much in the last 15 years

    At the end of the day, we need the Buffetts and we need the Musks.

    JCer says:
    February 23, 2021 at 1:19 pm
    Pumps a lot of us play the conservative game. We’ve seen way to many people get obliterated in the tech bubble crash in 2000 and the bank stock crash in 2008. If I lose 500k or 1m it’s curtains I’ll be working until i’m 90, it’s the smart play. Sure if I were aggressive I could probably retire at 45 or 50 but is the risk worth it?

  236. fiftydollars says:

    There were many self-anointed superstar fund managers who rode the tech bubble up in the late 90’s, only to lose 60-80% of their clients money in 2000-2002. Cathie Wood has done a great job but it will be interesting whether she beats the market in a serious correction. In the end it is all about risk management (or the lack thereof).

  237. 3b says:

    I take a break and pop back in, and it’s Pumps again! And of course referencing me again in his ramblings. Just got ignore him, I don’t always follow that advice, as it’s hard because he is so insufferable. But try , just scroll past his ramblings.

  238. The Great Pumpkin says:

    That’s how the market works. How many companies live to see 20? 30? 40? Now add in the fact how fast the economy is changing right now….I’m going to go with the one that is trying to discover the trend disruptors as opposed to trying to figure out on my own which companies will stay alive in this era of rapid innovation.

    fiftydollars says:
    February 23, 2021 at 2:01 pm
    There were many self-anointed superstar fund managers who rode the tech bubble up in the late 90’s, only to lose 60-80% of their clients money in 2000-2002. Cathie Wood has done a great job but it will be interesting whether she beats the market in a serious correction. In the end it is all about risk management (or the lack thereof).

  239. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Cry me a river…

    3b says:
    February 23, 2021 at 2:10 pm
    I take a break and pop back in, and it’s Pumps again! And of course referencing me again in his ramblings. Just got ignore him, I don’t always follow that advice, as it’s hard because he is so insufferable. But try , just scroll past his ramblings.

  240. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Wonder what happened with Tiger this morning.

  241. Hold my beer says:

    Tiger woods in single vehicle car crash. Taken to hospital by ambulance. His car rolled over

    https://www.tmz.com/2021/02/23/tiger-woods-car-crash-golf-tournament/

  242. BRT says:

    buyhighsellhigher
    @ebitdaddy90
    WSJ article says Arkk has almost 50% of the fund in stocks where they own 10% or more of the company. @CathieDWood. I look forward to feasting on your carcass when flows turn negative. Gonna be easy to get some predatory shorts going in all your small caps.

    You obviously don’t attack the Buffalo when it’s healthy and kicking. None of those small caps are going to 100x in the short run when their top shareholder is liquidating at any price due to redemptions.

  243. The Great Pumpkin says:

    BRT,

    These same idiots thought Tesla was an easy short. Can’t fix stupid.

    Another idiot going to get his a$$ handed to him betting against something he doesn’t understand.

    Doesn’t end well when a fish attacks the shark.

  244. The Great Pumpkin says:

    So many people betting against ark simply because it had such a good year. Doh doh, what goes up, must come down. Good luck with that logic.

  245. BRT says:

    Tesla is a cult, you can’t find a proper entrance point to short without taking massive risk. All these small caps that she’s likely running up, different story.

  246. The Great Pumpkin says:

    BRT,

    If she has the money in these small caps, it’s prob for a reason. I’d say that’s a lot more dangerous than shorting tesla. If it goes off, you are dead. You are basically telling someone that has developed an entire network on reading disruptive tech that they are wrong. Danger Danger. Playing with fire.

    Sure, she will be wrong, but she is going to be right a lot more than she is wrong. And when she is right, it has enormous growth potential. Sounds like fun shorting…

  247. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Again, the value with her is the network and team she developed. Cutting edge. They know exactly what is going on. We can’t even grasp what they understand about disruptive tech. They are knee deep in the sh!t, while we are standing in puddles.

  248. BRT says:

    https://ark-invest.com/our-team/

    Her team looks like a rainbow coalition of millenials who never saw a bear market in their lives.

  249. Bystander says:

    “Orange Man was not elected because he was mean (but truthful)”

    Snicker..keep swallowing that Orange load. Biden won’t ‘Twitter and Shitter, all day long. He wears Depends. Depend is what America needs.

  250. leftwing says:

    “Snicker..keep swallowing that Orange load. Biden won’t ‘Twitter and Shitter, all day long. He wears Depends. Depend is what America needs.”

    Saying the same thing you dumb fcuk. All the reading comprehension of a gourd….

  251. leftwing says:

    “Her team looks like a rainbow coalition of millenials who never saw a bear market in their lives.”

    One of many reasons….you’re being generous on millenial as well, many of them look like they should be on my sophomore’s instagram feed….

    My biggest beef is that she is sloppy…in many ways….not the least of which is entry price. That matters, except in the far end of the bell curve time we are where prices are going up so strongly. Markets don’t even need to revert to normal, just slow down, and she’s leaving way too much on the table.

  252. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Looks like I won’t be getting too many cheapies…oh well. Man, people are overreacting in the market to inflation concerns.

    These are the same clowns that yelled inflation was coming for years back in the 2009-2013 era.

  253. Libturd says:

    “None of those small caps are going to 100x in the short run when their top shareholder is liquidating at any price due to redemptions.”

    That was exactly what I was thinking when I wrote, “To meet the demand and to avoid basically owning all of the shares of the best of breed in each sector she focuses on, she must buy some crappy names too. What she going to do when the levee breaks? Move the entire fund into a money market?”

    When this market busts, those ARKK funds are going to be easy pickins. Kind of like

    https://tinyurl.com/AARK-Marketing-Roadshow

  254. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Lib,

    Disruptive innovation will create opportunities over and over during this next decade for her. That’s what people don’t understand. A company no one knows right now, that doesn’t exist, will be her biggest driver 6 years from now.

    She understands what is at play. She understands that innovation doesn’t change this rapidly often. She then developed a world class playbook to play it over the next 10-20 years. This will never be duplicated because we are in a unique period of rapid disruption.

  255. leftwing says:

    Even worse Lib, and one of my main points regarding entry price, she advertises her moves daily.

    Cute parlor trick when you’re an anonymous manager of $300m scraping for attention and more AUM to make ends meet….at $35B where you hold 10% positions? Suicide…

    My very first post on here addressed it….that she voluntarily dollar cost averages up her positions by putting out her buys.

    Redemptions? WTF do you think happens when she publishes major liquidations? If a buy moves shares 5% or so overnight, what do you think happens with multiple sells? Holy sh1t….

    Only alternative is to stop reporting when she starts selling, which may be worse because we all know how much Wall Street likes uncertainty….

  256. PumpkinFace says:

    Cycles!

    The Great Pumpkin says:
    February 23, 2021 at 3:10 pm
    So many people betting against ark simply because it had such a good year. Doh doh, what goes up, must come down. Good luck with that logic.

  257. The Great Pumpkin says:

    If she is selling hard, isn’t she reporting after she sells? Leaving all the copy cats trying to ride her tail for free as the bag holders?

    “Redemptions? WTF do you think happens when she publishes major liquidations? If a buy moves shares 5% or so overnight, what do you think happens with multiple sells? Holy sh1t….”

  258. leftwing says:

    If the clueless fcuk paid any attention to his ‘investment’ he’d know she enters and exits over an elongated period….

    Unbelievable, I use her as an idea farm and the 45 minutes I’ve spent evaluating her business and dropping her portfolios in a spreadsheet is more work than dumbo who puts in actual dollars….

  259. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Lefty, you know way more than me, I’m not arguing that. That’s why I have to pay her and you don’t. I’m just doing what I can to try and double my money over the next 5-10 years.

  260. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Everyone hates you when you are on top.

    “What’s with the Cathie hate all of a sudden?”

    https://twitter.com/yo_itsricky/status/1364327486612504581?s=21

  261. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Yup.

    “They hate her cause she’s the best. Our generations Warren Buffett”

  262. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Powell’s Econ 101: Jobs not inflation. And forget about the money supply

    https://apple.news/AXqOvJGf6SmmvbZctYoYRow

  263. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Warren Buffett is getting a run for his money — ARK Invest’s Cathie Wood is turning into the stock picker to watch. And she’s making huge bets on a number of stocks Buffett doesn’t own and can’t match — even in the financial sector.

    Three stocks that are top 10 holdings in ARK Invest’s family of ETFs including financial Silvergate Capital (SI), health care Pacific Biosciences of California (PACB) and communications services company Sea (SE), at least tripled the return of Warren Buffett’s best U.S.-listed stock in the past 12 months, says an Investor’s Business Daily analysis of data from S&P Global Market Intelligence and MarketSmith.

    Wood, increasingly nicknamed “Queen Cathie” by traders on Reddit, is turning into the new stock market Oracle. More than 30 of the 45 top 10 holdings in ARK Invest’s five active ETFs in the past 12 months beat the performance of the top U.S.-listed gainer in Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway portfolio: home improvement retailer RH (RH). RH is up 116.8% in 12 months.

    https://apple.news/At92tAK2XRxy3cQrEqWDPIQ

  264. Hold my beer says:

    Pumps

    Are you having some sort of manic episode?

  265. chicagofinance says:

    You understand that if someone wants to take Wood out and chop her up, it can happen relatively easily. She better not cross anyone important. The only reason the GME debacle has not been avenged is due to the diffuse actor pool.

    The Great Pumpkin says:
    February 23, 2021 at 3:10 pm
    So many people betting against ark simply because it had such a good year. Doh doh, what goes up, must come down. Good luck with that logic.

  266. chicagofinance says:

    Here is an example of a c0cky prick that pissed off one too may people.
    Nicholas Maounis
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Amaranth_Advisors#cite_note-MarketWatch2006September25BarrAlistair-1

  267. PumpkinFace says:

    Yes, it’s called Tuesday.

    Hold my beer says:
    February 23, 2021 at 5:47 pm
    Pumps

    Are you having some sort of manic episode?

  268. The Great Pumpkin says:

    My bad with the overload of posts.

    It was a good debate though.

  269. BRT says:

    lol, someone on Twitter called her the Brett Favre of investment strategy

  270. leftwing says:

    Tonight’s Cathy Watch…

    She reported after close ‘substantial’ TSLA buys, helped push the stock up 2% AH. Email shows she bought about 250k shares across portfolios.

    More selling in bigger names like ROKU, CRM, and AAPL. Continued hard dump in SPLK which is an ongoing trend, and TSM.

    In addition to the TSLA buys more purchases in TWTR, SPOT, OPEN, U, and SGFY (recent add, been buying daily over the past week). More daily buys of BEAM and BFLY.

    SGFY is an interesting case study in her management and exposure discussed here today. Will bullet a couple points tomorrow maybe. No new positions jump out but didn’t line by line it.

    G’night all.

  271. Walking says:

    Chifi, good read thank you. Its amazing how this happens over and over. Remember the Janus, Strong Funds and a bunch of other fund family managers that traded personnel shares, or bought shares of stocks prior to investing huge sums of money that moved the stock for the fund. For every new hot ARK investment there are lots of lessons out there. I always remember as a kid in the 80’s fascinated by the Steadmen Fund. The fund had a crazy expense ratio of like 10% and was nicknamed the Dead mans fund.

  272. joyce says:

    Current NJ budget $40.4B, proposed budget next year $44.8B… why did we borrow $4.3B again?

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