More than 40 states to sign foreclosure settlement

More than 40 states will sign a settlement with the top-five mortgage servicers over alleged foreclosure abuses that arose more than one year ago, Iowa Attorney General Tom Miller said in a statement Monday night.

Last week, Miller extended the deadline to Monday for states wanting to sign the deal with Bank of America ($7.97 0.13%), Wells Fargo ($30.20 -0.43%), Citigroup ($33.30 -0.24%), JPMorgan Chase ($38.14 -0.14%) and Ally Financial ($22.95 0.03%).

“The sign-on deadline for the proposed joint state-federal mortgage servicing settlement passed Monday with more than 40 states signing on,” Miller said “This enables us to move forward into the very final stages of remaining work.Federal and state officials, as well as representatives from the banks, continue to address matters that they must complete before finalizing any settlement.”

Throughout the day, those representing states hardest hit by the foreclosure crisis signaled they are still working on the details of the settlement.

“We’re closer,” a spokesperson for California AG Kamala Harris said.

“My office is continuing to review the intricate draft settlement terms and advocating for improvements to address Nevada’s needs,” said Nevada AG Catherine Cortez Masto in a statement. “Receipt of important state specific information is necessary to make our determination and my office is still in discussions regarding that information.”

Florida AG Pam Bondi said she “remains involved in the settlement discussions in order to reach the best resolution for Floridians and all Americans.” She signed a joint letter with other republican AGs in 2010, saying a settlement that would involve principal reduction creates a moral hazard and lead to more strategic defaults.
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An official in one AG office said an announcement is expected at the end of this week at the earliest.

From Bloomberg:

California, N.Y. Are Among Fewer Than 10 Mortgage Deal Holdouts

California and New York’s attorneys general haven’t signed on to a proposed settlement with five banks over foreclosure practices that has won the support of more than 40 states.

California’s Kamala Harris and New York’s Eric Schneiderman, who have been some of the most outspoken in pushing for changes to the deal, are among those who hadn’t joined the agreement as of yesterday’s deadline for states to decide. More than 40 states signed on to the accord, according to Iowa Attorney General Tom Miller, who is helping to lead talks with the banks.

“Adding more numbers probably improves the political dimension of the settlement from the standpoint of the attorneys general,” said Ken Scott, a Stanford University law professor. “If you can say there were only a handful of diehards that didn’t sign on, that gives you some political protection.”
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Bank of America Corp., JPMorgan Chase & Co. and Wells Fargo & Co. made a last-minute demand that New York drop claims filed against them Feb. 3 as a condition of the settlement, a person familiar with the matter said.

The push by the three banks raised a new obstacle in getting Schneiderman’s support for the deal, said the person. New York, along with California, Nevada and Delaware said late yesterday they hadn’t signed on to the settlement.

New York sued Bank of America, JPMorgan and Wells Fargo in state court in Brooklyn, saying their use of a mortgage database known as MERS led to improper foreclosures. Schneiderman said the banks’ use of the Mortgage Electronic Registration Systems database misled homeowners, undermined foreclosure proceedings and created uncertainty about ownership interests in properties.

Foreclosure Deal Deadline Arrives as States Must Choose Whether to Sign On

States that balked at bank liability releases in a proposed $25 billion nationwide settlement over foreclosure practices must decide by today whether its mortgage relief and reforms are worth the legal claims they’ll give up.

While some states have already announced their intention to sign the deal, others including California Attorney General Kamala Harris have yet to publicly commit in part due to terms that protect the banks from future litigation. Without Harris, the deal’s value will drop by several billion dollars, according to a person familiar with the matter.

The agreement is “beyond fixing,” said George Goehl, executive director of National People’s Action, a network of community organizations which advocates for fair lending and affordable housing.

“People are very disappointed in what this is going to be both in terms of dollars and release of claims,” Goehl said in a telephone interview. “We’re giving away the store.”

Most states don’t have the resources to go it alone and fight the banks in court, said James Tierney, director of Columbia Law School’s National State Attorneys General Program. States such as California that may reject the agreement must decide whether the time and money needed to fight for a better deal is worth it, given that the settlement provides immediate relief for homeowners, he said.

“How long does it take and how much better?” Tierney said of a state pursuing its own deal. “Is it so much better that it warrants the cost and delay?”
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Today’s deadline, extended by the parties from Feb. 3, comes almost 16 months after all 50 states announced they were investigating bank foreclosure practices following disclosures that faulty documents were being used to seize homes.

The housing recovery that wasn’t

Over the past few months, a spate of good news about the U.S. housing market has led some to think a recovery is finally on the horizon.

The evidence is compelling. It now costs almost as much to rent as buy. Since the housing bubble burst in 2006, home prices have fallen by 33% nationwide — more than they did during the Great Depression. Waves of foreclosures and tighter lending standards have helped drive a surge in rentals. And during the third quarter, the median monthly mortgage payment totaled $698 compared to the median monthly asking rent of $700, according to Capital Economics, citing data from the National Association of Realtors and the Census Bureau. What’s more, the cost of borrowing has fallen to record lows, with interest rates for 30-year fixed rate mortgages hovering around 4%.
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That optimism is well-deserved, right? Not exactly.

Since the housing market imploded, analysts have predicted year after year that prices might at long last bottom out. Will it finally happen this year? Perhaps next? Bottoming necessarily out precedes turning the corner — and until that happens optimists should be cautious. Economists widely cite the short-term obstacles weighing down prices. These factors range from high unemployment and household debt to the so-called “shadow inventory,” or all the properties that have yet to come into the market because of pending foreclosures or skittish homeowners delaying sales until prices improve.

These threats are very real. But there’s a bigger threat — and drag on any future recovery — that doesn’t get nearly the attention it deserves: rising interest rates.

Admittedly, rates probably won’t increase any time soon. In a sign that the economy is recovering slower than expected, the Federal Reserve announced last week that it would keep its record-low rate for another three years. The central bank has already kept its key rate at nearly zero for three years. And last summer, officials launched “operation twist,” whereby the central bank bought $400 billion in long-term bonds in hopes to give the economy a boost and, more specifically, lower the cost of taking out home mortgages.

Problem is, interest rates can’t stay low forever. Eventually they’ll have to rise, which could very well drive home prices down since the cost of taking out a mortgage becomes more expensive. Even if rates rise slowly over several years, prices could either fall much further or, at best, stagnate. This is partly why the Fed has been so obsessed with keeping rates down. “The market will look like a frog in boiling water once rates rise,” says Lance Roberts, CEO of Streettalk Advisors, a Houston, Texas-based investment advisory company. Roberts, who also contributes to Advisor Perspectives, which publishes newsletters and online articles focused on investment strategies, laid out his case in a recent post.

At some point, interest rates will start rising back toward the long-term median of 8.9% from the current 4%. Depending when and how quickly, the jump would make homes much less affordable for the average American family. Roberts notes that, back in 1968, U.S. households on average spent 7% of their real disposable income on their mortgage payment with a down payment typically at 20%. Assuming the same down payment, that share has more than doubled to 15% today or likely higher since many mortgages approved over the last decade required little or no money down. “With real disposable incomes stagnant as inflation pressures rise, that 15% of the budget is becoming much harder to sustain,” he says.
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So while the housing market may eventually overcome the immediate bumps of foreclosures, high unemployment and the like, real optimists should be looking at the direction of interest rates before they get their hopes up.

Economists See Ways to Aid Housing Market

he underpinnings of a housing recovery are hiding in plain sight: sharp price declines, low mortgage rates and rising rents have made owning more affordable than renting in a growing number of markets.

Yet housing largely remains in a funk. The prospect of continued price declines—led by the oversupply of foreclosed homes—has deterred some potential buyers, while others can’t qualify for loans.

Many economists, including some at the Federal Reserve, are urging President Barack Obama to do more, and the president will be “aggressive on housing” in his State of the Union address on Tuesday, his housing secretary said last week. The administration is already rebooting a refinancing initiative and putting finishing touches on programs to convert some foreclosed properties into rentals.

What more can be done? Economists cite three broad ideas that could advance a housing recovery.

First, local investors could play a greater role in spurring a recovery in their own communities. Some mom-and-pop investors have begun to buy up excess housing stock and rent it out.
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Second, policy makers could restore clarity to lending by finalizing a clutch of pending regulations. The government’s extraordinary steps to rescue Fannie and Freddie helped prevent a cataclysmic shock but it has made no real movement to overhaul the companies and the nation’s broader housing-finance machinery.
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Third, a growing number of economists are warning that the overhang of debt in some of the most distressed housing markets will linger for years, particularly if more borrowers default. They say mortgage investors and banks should consider reducing debt for more troubled homeowners.
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Mustering the political will to take any of these three steps wouldn’t be easy. Given the state of the market, “there isn’t a solution which will make everyone love you and cost no money,” Mr. Ranieri says.

Indeed, no single idea will fix all of housing’s problems. Many involve taking on more risk or rewarding bad behavior.

Home prices decline 4.3% in November: CoreLogic

Home prices nationwide fell 4.3% year-over-year in the month of November, according to analytics firm CoreLogic in its November Home Price Index.

Santa Ana, Calif.-based CoreLogic said home prices declined 1.4% from October to November, making it the fourth consecutive monthly decline.

When excluding distressed home sales, prices year-over-year fell only 0.6%, compared to 1.6% in October. Distressed sales include all short sales and REO deals.

“With one month of data left to report, it appears that the healthy, non-distressed market will be very modestly down in 2011,” said Mark Fleming, CoreLogic’s chief economist. “Distressed sales continue to put downward pressure on prices, and is a factor that must be addressed in 2012 for a housing recovery to become a reality.”

Capital Economics expects prices to stop falling this year, although the recent acceleration in the rate of declines “will provide more support to those Fed officials who recently have championed more action to revive the housing market.”

“The current balance between demand and supply, as measured by how long it would take to clear all the homes on the market at recent rates of sale, is consistent with prices stabilizing in six months’ time,” according to the Toronto-based firm.

Real Estate May Begin to Come to Life in 2012

The housing market — staggering under a slow economy and still paying for the excesses of the boom years — may start to stir to life in 2012.

But experts warn that a real rebound is still several years away.

“Our outlook is that things (in 2012) will be a little bit better than 2011,” said Patrick Newport, an economist with IHS Global Insight. “But that’s not saying much.”

Blame the economy, with unemployment topping 8 percent. If economic and job growth pick up in 2012, housing is likely to get a boost. But that’s a big “if.” IHS expects the U.S. economy to grow at an anemic 1.6 percent — or possibly even tip into recession as a result of Europe’s debt problems.

“Our view is that the economy isn’t going to grow fast enough to bring down the unemployment rate,” said Newport. “That’s one of the reasons that it will take the housing market another 1 ½ to two years to get back on track and start growing again.”

“People are not going to come out and make the most expensive purchase of their lives if there’s any uncertainty about their jobs,” said Robert Denk, an economist with the National Association of Home Builders, who predicts that home construction won’t return to normal levels until 2015.

And the housing market is still suffering a hangover from the wild times of 2004 and 2005, when questionable mortgage practices inflated prices to unsustainable levels, and allowed unqualified buyers to get into homes they couldn’t afford.
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Newport expects prices nationwide to slide another 5 or 10 percent in 2012, as the foreclosure pipeline gets moving again, dumping distressed properties on the market. Foreclosed properties tend to sell at a discount of 20 to 30 percent, according to several studies.

Lower prices have left many homeowners (especially those who paid high prices at the market peak) owing more on their homes than the properties are worth.

Of course, the lower prices have also made it easier for buyers to afford homes. And once the foreclosure bottleneck is cleared, many low-priced properties will come onto the market, said Patrick O’Keefe, an economist with J.H. Cohn in Roseland, N.J.

“There will be a lot of opportunities for purchasers to get steeply discounted properties,” he said. He predicted prices will stabilize by the end of 2012.
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During the 2007-09 recession, about 2 million fewer new households than expected were created, according to Denk, the economist with the National Association of Home Builders. And household formation has continued to be depressed since the recession ended, Denk said.

After losing their jobs (or their homes to foreclosure), millions of people doubled up with friends or relatives. At the same time, young adults stayed in their parents’ homes longer while they searched for good jobs.

But sooner or later, most of these people will create their own households, ratcheting up demand for apartments and homes.

Bernanke calls for nationwide REO rental program

The government should consider helping the nation’s vacant, unsold stock of foreclosed properties by supporting initiatives to occupy.

Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke believes that one aspect should be a government support program that allows renters to move into those houses.

In a letter Wednesday to ranking members on the House Committee of Financial Services, Reps. Spencer Bachus, R-Ala., and Barney Frank, D-Mass., Bernanke said that inefficiencies in the foreclosure and mortgage origination processes are dragging on the economic recovery.

However, solutions are available, he added.

“Preliminary estimates suggest that about two-fifths of Fannie Mae’s REO inventory would have a cap rate above 8% — sufficiently high to indicate renting the property might deliver a better loss recovery than selling the property,” Bernanke’s staff writes in a supporting white paper.

“Estimated cap rates on the Federal Housing Administration’s REO inventory are a bit higher — about half of the current inventory has a cap rate above 8% — because FHA properties tend to have somewhat lower values relative to area rents,” they said.
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In a scenario of declining house prices such as this, homeownership should be promoted, according to the white paper. Indeed, they argue that in many cases REO-to-rentals may be inappropriate. Yet unless mortgage origination requirements, with tighter underwriting standards, are loosened in the immediate future, borrowers may have little choice but to rent.

Furthermore, support for such a program will cost mortgage servicers, bond investors and even taxpayers. But it may be a sacrifice for the greater good.

S&P: Buying, renting costs draw closer

An index from Standard & Poor’s shows a narrowing gap between the cost of buying a house and renting.

David Blitzer, chairman of the company’s index committee, said the rent-buy price ratio from October “shows not extreme favoritism” either way, as it moves toward a long-run average near 90.

S&P calculates the index using the 10-city composite of the S&P/Case-Shiller home price index, as well as the consumer price index for rental of a primary residence.

The most-recent HPI showed home prices declined about 1.1% in the 10-city composite for October from a month earlier.

The rent-buy ratio has a 1987 benchmark reading of 100. Vertical movement on the index indicates a price difference, with upward movement showing an increase in rental prices, and vice versa.

Rental costs peaked in the late 1990s when the index approached 120, and buying costs topped out at a reading near 50 in the housing boom of the mid-2000s. The index has moved closer to average levels since the ensuing housing bust.
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In a separate measure, S&P said house prices fell in comparison to disposable income per person. The ratio fell to 90, well below the average value of 102 since 1987. “Houses are almost cheap” according to the measure, Blizter said.

The new year could bring opportunities for home buyers; market expected to improve by mid-year

Are we at the bottom of the housing market?

It’s the primary question on the minds of real estate agents and analysts. Have we hit bottom yet? Are we close? Or are we rebounding by now? It could be months or years before the numbers from home sales and prices prove any conclusion, but by that time the buyer-friendly market could be shifting back to the sellers’ favor, experts said.

“My read is, several years from now we’ll look back at 2012 as having been one of those rare homebuying opportunities that comes along once or twice in a generation,” said Jeffrey Otteau, a real estate analyst and president of Otteau Valuation Group in East Brunswick.

Prices and interest rates are low, and job creation is starting to look more positive, he said. Home sales could regain their footing somewhere around mid-2012 and begin to build from there, he said.

“The buyers’ lament will be, ‘I wish I had bought then,’ ” Otteau said. “By then, those buyers will be looking at higher prices and higher interest rates for the same houses.”

Various economic indicators released in recent weeks show a housing market that will face a bumpy recovery.
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All the figures are making buyers wonder when is a good time to make a move.

“Buyers face this dilemma of ‘how long do I wait,’ and if they think prices are going down, ‘do I wait at all?’” said Gary Large, president of New Jersey Association of Realtors and branch manager of Prudential New Jersey Properties in Morristown.

“Trying to time the market,” Large said, “is very difficult and not a wise strategy.”

From a buyer’s perspective, that means understanding that “cheaper is not always better,” Otteau said. Houses listed at a bargain price will not hold their value as long as or rise as quickly as those that are near employment centers or transportation corridors, and the buyer will end up paying the difference in gas and commuting costs.

The trick to sell, industry leaders said, is to price a house properly. If the listing price is too high, offers could come in significantly lower or the house could stay on the market so long buyers think something is amiss.

“Sellers really have to be aggressive to get their homes sold,” Large said. “The buyers have so much information at their fingertips that they can spot an overpriced listing a mile away, and so they don’t want to look at it.”
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Recovery will happen once buyers are confident again and decide that prices won’t drop any further, experts said.

That could happen as soon as mid-2012, and appreciation could start — slowly — by 2013.

“That’s really why people are on the sidelines,” Otteau said. “Prices have corrected, interest rates are cheap, job security is better than it was, but now the next question is, ‘Is the value of this asset going to go lower?’’”

“And by the time the public gets comfortable with that,” he added, “prices will have already started rising.”

From CNBC:

Housing’s New Hope

I’m not sure if it’s that usual New Year’s Eve optimism evoked by the generic philosophy that the grass is always greener on the other side of the calendar year, or perhaps the emotional need to dig ourselves out of what has surely been one of the more lugubrious periods in the U.S. economy, but there is some hope in housing.

A few positive readings in home sales and housing starts recently, topped off by today’s 7.4 percent monthly jump in contracts to buy existing homes, are fueling what I dare say is a spark, albeit not a fire. They are also managing to trump what was a particularly opposing reading in home prices from the number crunchers at S&P/Case-Shiller this week.
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Then there is a big story in the Wall Street Journal today of hedge funds putting their money back in housing, suggesting that while the numbers aren’t all there for a big win, these funds are usually ahead of big market shifts, so the housing surge must be on its way. I’ve spoken to some of these hedge fund types as well, and they seem to be playing on the surging rental market for now, getting the bargains but not expecting any big “flipping” returns any time soon.

“Bottom line, whether due to even lower prices, historically low mortgage rates, falling inventory and a better tone to the labor market or a combination of all, the housing market is showing signs of stabilizing,” says Peter Boockvar at Miller Tabak. “I say stabilize instead of bottom, as its too early to make that claim just yet with still a huge amount of foreclosures that hasn’t worked its way through the judicial system and prices that haven’t likely stopped going down as a result.”
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It’s all relative. Are things getting a bit better? Probably. I heard (or read…can’t remember) someone today say that housing has gone from a negative to a nothing for the U.S. economy. So when we tout and rave about today’s pending home sales numbers, we mustn’t forget where we’ve been:

“It’s not going to keep 2011 from being the worst on record for new home sales, for single family permits and single family housing starts. Next year is going to be better, but that’s not saying much because this has been the worst year, probably since 1945,” said IHS Global Insight’s Patrick Newport. In other words, housing ain’t exactly fecund, but it’s at least inching off life support.

Pending-Home Sales Hit 19-Month High

The housing market showed signs of improvement as the number of Americans signing contracts to buy existing homes increased in November to the highest level in 19 months.

The National Association of Realtors’ seasonally adjusted index for pending sales of existing homes increased 7.3% on a monthly basis to 100.1, the industry group said Thursday. Sales increased in all four regions of the country.

Economists surveyed by Dow Jones Newswires had expected pending-home sales would climb by 0.5% in November. November’s 100.1 level was the highest since April 2010.

The NAR credited the increase partly to pent-up demand from buyers who have been on the sidelines for months and may have previously failed to obtain a mortgage.

“Some of the increase in pending home sales appears to be from buyers recommitting after an initial contract ran into problems, often with the mortgage,” the trade group’s chief economist, Lawrence Yun, said in a statement.

The NAR’s pending sales gauge is 5.9% above its level in November 2010.

From Bloomberg:

Pending Sales of U.S. Existing Homes Rose 7.3% in November

The number of Americans signing contracts to buy previously owned homes rose more than forecast in November as falling prices and low borrowing costs boosted demand.

The index of pending home sales increased 7.3 percent to the highest level since April 2010 after climbing 10.4 percent the prior month, figures from the National Association of Realtors showed today in Washington. Economists forecast a 1.5 percent gain, according to the median estimate in a Bloomberg News survey.

The industry that triggered the 18-month recession that ended in June 2009 is showing signs of stabilizing as construction picks up, builder confidence improves and the number of houses on the market declines. Nonetheless, another wave of foreclosures may weigh on real-estate values next year.

“It looks like buyers are becoming more confident and are attracted to record-low mortgage rates,” Aaron Smith, a senior economist at Moody’s Analytics Inc. in West Chester, Pennsylvania, said before the report. At the same time, he said, “activity still looks depressed by historical standards.”

Estimates for pending home sales ranged from a drop of 3 percent to an increase of 11 percent, according to the median of 30 forecasts in the Bloomberg survey.

Pending home sales were up 6.9 percent from November 2010. (this is 5.9, not 6.9 – jb)

From HousingWire:

Pending home sales up 7.3% in November

Pending home sales — a measure of mortgage contracts signed and an indicator of possible home closings – increased 7.3% in November from October, reaching its highest level in 19 months, the National Association of Realtors said Thursday.

The trade group’s pending home sales index hit 100.1 in November, up from a revised 93.3 for October and 5.9% higher than 94.5 a year earlier.

The last time the index score topped 100 was April 2010 when it hit 111.5, which was buoyed by the effects of the federal homebuyer tax credit.

Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, said November’s gain is likely due to delayed transactions that stalled over mortgage contracting issues.

“Housing affordability conditions are at a record high and there is a pent-up demand from buyers who’ve been on the sidelines, but contract failures have been running unusually high,” Yun said. “Some of the increase in pending home sales appears to be from buyers recommitting after an initial contract ran into problems, often with the mortgage.”

5 Events that Really Mattered for Housing in 2011 – and Beyond

Government, the mortgage industry and forces of nature all shook the housing market in 2011. They had both an immediate impact and slow-burning effects, setting the stage for a bumpy 2012 with more foreclosures, political battles and local market risks.

1) Robo-Signing Reverberations
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What Really Mattered: The threat of robo-signing lawsuits made banks gun-shy about pursuing foreclosures in 2011, which left many homes stuck in the foreclosure process. But once a settlement is reached, we’ll see a rush of foreclosures in 2012.

2) The Debt Ceiling and the Budget Deficit
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What Really Mattered: After the debt ceiling debate, the back and forth deliberations by the unsuccessful bipartisan deficit-reduction supercommittee teased us with some proposals that will surely rear their heads again. One idea that both Republicans and Democrats didn’t totally disagree about was reducing the mortgage interest and other tax deductions. If and when that happens, high-income homeowners with mortgages would pay a lot more in taxes.

3) The Expansion of HARP
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What Really Mattered: Borrowers who strategically fell behind on their payments in hopes of negotiating a loan-modification won’t be helped. What this plan will do is stimulate the economy without having to get Congress to agree on additional stimulus.

4) Natural Disasters Cause Insurance Disaster?
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What Really Mattered: In flood-prone areas, you can’t get a mortgage if you don’t have flood insurance. Without NFIP, housing markets in these areas would skid to a stop. As part of last week’s payroll tax agreement, the program got a last-minute extension until May 2012, but its future remains uncertain.

5) Lowering the Conforming Loan Limit
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What Really Mattered: Mortgage lenders are willing to charge lower rates for loans that are backed by Fannie or Freddie; with a lower conforming loan limit, a small number of loans that used to qualify for federal backing no longer do.

From Grim:

What Really Mattered for Housing in 2011

1) Continued decline of prices

How can you possibly overlook the continuation of the housing decline into it’s fifth year? This is, undoubtedly the single most important event for housing in 2011.

2) Stabilization of prices

Not to sound contradictory, but the decrease in the overall rate of decline (Second derivative? Don’t crash if you are reading this on your phone in the car morning) in spite of numerous negative forces (double digit U-6, slow to no job or income growth, etc), and without significant market influence (homebuyer credits, etc) does point to an overall stabilization in pricing.

3) Disconnect between mortgage rates and housing demand

I think these one can finally be put to bed this year. Extremely low mortgage rates do not necessarily lead to an increase in housing purchase activity. For years the thought was a lower price of housing capital (interest) would lead to greater demand for it. Turns out this isn’t the case and Greenspan’s greatest play simply can’t be repeated.

4) Slow Economic Recovery/High Unemployment

Probably the biggest single external influence on the housing market? Nothing more needs to be said here.

5) Bailout Capitulation

Finally the year that the housing bailout went out of style. Realization sets in that other than shoveling dollars into buyers pockets directly, which at best only elicits a temporary boost in housing, there just isn’t a scheme that’ll fix the market.

Home Prices in U.S. Cities Decline More Than Forecast, Case-Shiller Says

Residential real estate prices dropped more than forecast in the year ended October, showing a broad-based decline that indicates the housing market continues to be weighed down by foreclosures.

The S&P/Case-Shiller index of property values in 20 cities dropped 3.4 percent from October 2010 after decreasing 3.5 percent in the year ended September, the New York-based group said today. The median forecast of 27 economists in a Bloomberg News survey projected a 3.2 percent decrease.

The real-estate market is bracing for another wave of foreclosures that may keep pressure on home prices, indicating any housing recovery will take time to develop. Nonetheless, rising builder confidence, a pickup in construction and fewer unsold new properties for sale are among signs the industry that triggered the last recession is steadying.

“Home prices at the national level clearly remain depressed, dragged down by areas of the country that remain weighted down by a large inventory of foreclosed properties,” Peter Newland, a U.S. economist at Barclays Capital Inc. in New York, said before the report. “However, other areas are beginning to see stabilization and some price gains.”

Estimates in the Bloomberg survey for the price change ranged from declines of 2.4 percent to 3.6 percent. The Case- Shiller index is based on a three-month average, which means the October data were influenced by transactions in August and September.

From CNBC:

Home Prices Fall in Most Major US Cities: Case-Shiller

U.S. home prices fell in most major cities for the second straight month, further evidence that the housing recovery will be bumpy.

The Standard & Poor’s/Case-Shiller index shows prices dropped in October from September in 19 of the 20 cities tracked. Prices in a majority of cities declined for the second straight month. Prior to that, they had risen for five consecutive months in at least half of the cities tracked.

Atlanta, Detroit and Minneapolis posted the biggest monthly declines.

Prices in Atlanta and Las Vegas fell to their lowest points since the housing crisis began. Prices rose in Phoenix after three straight monthly declines.

U.S. Home Prices Fell 2.8% in October From Prior Year, FHFA Says

U.S. home prices fell 2.8 percent in October from a year earlier, the Federal Housing Finance Agency said, as foreclosures continued to depress real estate values.

The slump was led by the regions that include Nevada and Arizona, and California and Washington, which both had a 5.5 percent decrease, the agency said today in a report from Washington. The region that includes Illinois and Ohio had the second-largest decline of 3.9 percent.
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Home prices in October dropped 0.2 percent from the previous month on a seasonally adjusted basis, according to the FHFA. That was worse than economists’ projection of an increase of 0.2 percent, the average of 16 estimates in a Bloomberg survey.

The FHFA’s U.S. House Price Index is 19.2 percent below its April 2007 peak and about the same as the February 2004 level, according to the report.

From Bloomberg:

Decline in U.S. Home Values Smallest in Four Years, Zillow Says

U.S. home values probably will have their smallest decrease in four years in 2011 after the decline in property prices slowed, Zillow Inc. said today.
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An increase in buyer demand is needed before property values can begin to recover, Zillow said. Low borrowing costs may be helping, with sales of existing homes rising in November to a 10-month high, according to a National Association of Realtors report yesterday.

“While homeowners suffered through another year of steep losses, the good news is that homes are losing value at a substantially slower pace as the market works its way towards the bottom,” Stan Humphries, Zillow’s chief economist, said in today’s statement.

While property values declined at a slower pace this year, an oversupply of homes for sale, low consumer confidence and an 8.6 percent unemployment rate will continue to weigh on the market and probably keep it from recovering until late next year or early 2013, Humphries said.

From CNBC:

Home-Sales Revisions to Hurt: More Distress in Market

Now we know that the recent housing crash was about 14 percent worse than previously thought. That is the conclusion of benchmark revisions by the National Association of Realtors, after they realized that their numbers were “drifting” from other industry calculations.

That drift was caused by a big shift away from For Sale By Owner (FSBO) sales to Realtor sales (which was a big factor in their methodology), an increase in the geographic size/range of many multiple listing services (MLS), and double counting due to Realtors listing properties in several different local MLS’s.

So what does this change? I’ve already expounded on what it doesn’t change, which is really anything happening today in the economy, current home sales and prices and already-accounted-for losses from the housing crash.

It does however, change perception and economic prediction as we go forward. The Commerce Department will have to revise the housing component of GDP lower, and, perhaps more importantly, we have to look at comparisons and the overall health of today’s housing market differently.

From HousingWire:

NAR reduces home sales index 14.3%

The National Association of Realtors revised its existing home sales downward 14.3% in the period from 2007 to 2010, after the group said its data diverged from actual market conditions.

The trade group announced the revisions Wednesday in its monthly existing-sales report. November sales rose 4% from last month and 12.2% from a year ago. Jed Smith, the head of quantitative research at NAR said in a conference call that numbers in reference to supply and demand in the market are unchanged.

Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, said about half of the revisions came from a decline in for-sale-by-owner transactions. NAR said those sales dropped from 16% of the market in 2000 to 9% in 2010.

Multiple listings, geographic population shifts and house flipping also contributed to the revisions, Yun said.
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John Burns Consulting contends that for years, the mortgage market believed NAR’s numbers to be overstated. Zillow recently added it would not be changing any of its operations as a result.

Inflation Rate Seen Outpacing Home Prices for Years

The ailing housing market is unlikely to return to health before 2016 and is weighing on the two-year-old U.S. recovery, which finally is showing signs of picking up steam.

That’s according to economists in the latest Wall Street Journal survey, who expect home prices will begin to increase in 2012 but—by an 8-to-1 margin—don’t see prices outpacing inflation over the next three years. That means that the value of the largest investment for most consumers—their home—would fail to keep pace with increases in the cost of other items, such as food, clothing and gasoline.

The economists expect home prices as measured by the Federal Housing Finance Administration will be down 2.7% in 2011, but up slightly next year. They forecast that inflation will remain below 2.5% through at least 2014 after hitting 3.3% at the end of this year.

During previous recoveries, home values held down by recession climbed back. In the 1980s, home prices were outpacing inflation by the first full year of recovery, while in the 1990s that took three years. If the economists’ forecasts prove true, the pace of growth in home prices would still be below that of inflation after at least five years of a recovery that began in 2009.

Historically, housing has been a driver of recoveries. But the bursting of the real-estate bubble of the 2000s has turned the sector into a drag on growth. An excess supply of homes has held back construction and price declines have weighed on consumer sentiment.

“Expectations for continued home-price appreciation, built upon the experiences of the post-World War II period, set the tone for the strategy to buy a home today in anticipation of capital gains down the road. This ended with the Great Recession,” said economists at Wells Fargo.