New Jersey Real Estate Report

From the Star Ledger:

Bon Jovi breaks ground on new complex he’s helping to build

New Jersey rocker Jon Bon Jovi, Newark Mayor Cory Booker and Gov. Jon Corzine dug shovels into a vacant lot in the city’s North Ward Tuesday to toast the start of a new affordable housing project.

When complete, the project will provide 51 homes for low-income and special needs people. The project will also provide permanent housing for HIV/AIDS clients who are currently being served by Broadway House, a continuing care facility in the North Ward.

The state is funding most of the $15 million project through tax credits and additional funding. Bon Jovi is chipping in $1 million through his organization, the Philadelphia Soul Charitable Foundation.

“Together we started something and now it’s your turn,” Bon Jovi said at a news conference announcing the project. “Together we can make a difference, one street, one neighborhood, one soul at a time.”

Bon Jovi’s foundation has also embarked on similar projects in Brooklyn, Colorado Springs, Detroit, Philadelphia and Atlanta. According to the foundation, his group has played a role in building 140 homes in various stages of completion.

The Newark project is scheduled to be completed in fall, 2009. Applications will be accepted beginning in spring, 2009.

From USA Today:

Bon Jovi helps build homes for poor, AIDS patients

One of New Jersey’s best-known rock ‘n’ rollers has teamed up with the state to provide affordable housing in the state’s largest city.

Jon Bon Jovi’s Philadelphia Soul Charitable Foundation is providing $1 million toward construction of a 51-unit building that will cater to homeless people with special needs, like AIDS patients.

The $15 million building, called Genesis Apartments, will rise where there is now a vacant lot. Joining Bon Jovi at Tuesday’s ground breaking were Gov. Jon Corzine, Newark Mayor Cory Booker, fashion designer Kenneth Cole and his wife, Maria Cuomo Cole, who runs HELP USA, a national nonprofit that is helping to build the units.

“Today I believe we’re starting something,” Bon Jovi said. “Together, I believe we can make a difference, one street, one neighborhood, one city, one soul at a time.”

Bon Jovi, who’s foundation has built affordable housing in Philadelphia, New Orleans and other cities, said he teamed up with Cole to design and market a line of jackets in 2006 to raise awareness to combat homelessness. Profits from that line provided the money for the Newark project, he said.

Bon Jovi, Shaq, who is next?

From the Gloucester County Times:

Pa. out-hustling N.J. in battle for business

Gov. Jon Corzine, flanked by some of his top advisers, invited eight of the state’s top real estate executives to the governor’s mansion for coffee and Danish one day last March to hear their take on the wobbly world of economic development in New Jersey.

At first, the discourse was deferential and measured. Then it was Zygi Wilf’s turn.

“I develop real estate in 38 states,” Wilf said, according to two people who were in the room. “This is the worst.”

Corzine sipped his coffee and offered no response.

Wilf, who is also owner of the Minnesota Vikings, did not return phone calls requesting an interview for this story. But his remarks to Corzine reflect what many real estate executives are saying privately: New Jersey is losing out on scores of real estate projects, and thousands of jobs that go with them, to neighboring states aggressively courting new business.

And while Corzine, former chief executive of Goldman Sachs, promised a business-friendly approach to government, the name that takes center stage is Pennsylvania Gov. Ed Rendell.

In five years in office, the hard-charging Rendell has implemented an aggressive development strategy and takes a hands-on approach, unafraid to pick up the phone or visit CEOs looking to relocate or expand their operations.
…
Where New Jersey has 225 employees dedicated to the task of economic development, Pennsylvania has close to 400, according to spokesmen for each state.

“Ed Rendell is not content to take our warehouse, pharma and biotech offices,” New Jersey real estate attorney Ted Zangari told Corzine at the Drumthwacket breakfast. “He’s now launched a new initiative Wall Street West, where he’s looking to attract redundant data centers and backup trading floors.”
…
“The eastern counties of Pennsylvania have become the new New Jersey,” Rutgers University economics professor Joseph Seneca said. “First the people go, then the jobs go.

Some of this trend can be attributed to interstate sprawl, a natural westward expansion from Manhattan through a built-out Garden State. But Seneca said Rendell has some good selling points when recruiting businesses: “lower property taxes, lower income taxes, lower corporate taxes, cheaper housing and cheaper labor.”

From Bloomberg:

Why Real Estate Market Is Nowhere Near a Bottom: Caroline Baum

Every time a housing statistic emits a faint heartbeat — last week’s 6.3 percent increase in the April pending home sales index, for example — there’s a flurry of pronouncements that the residential real estate market has bottomed.

Hope springs eternal. Housing has been down so long it looks like up, especially with the graph turned upside down.

New and existing home sales peaked in July and September of 2005, respectively. It took a while for homebuilders to catch the drift: Starts didn’t top out until January 2006, leaving a huge inventory of unsold homes in their wake.

Single-family starts, which are the most sensitive to changes in interest rates, are down 63 percent from the January 2006 peak, easily topping the 38 percent peak-to-trough decline in 1973-1975 and 57 percent 1984-1991 dive, and vying for first place with the 65 percent plunge in 1977-1981.

No wonder homebuilders are glum. In a departure from normal practices, the National Association of Homebuilders elected to release its monthly builder survey to the media via conference call on Monday. I received so many advance e-mail alerts I was starting to wonder if the index had sunk to zero in June, and the NAHB wanted to soften the blow.
…
In Southern California, for example, one of the areas where the bubble started early and ended hard, median home prices are down 27 percent in the past year, Lawler said.

“If you look at observed transactions on distressed sales, you could make a case that we are closer to a bottom because prices have plunged so rapidly,” he said. “But that’s no solace to non-distressed prices.”

In Florida, another epicenter of the boom-bust in real estate, “sales are 20 to 30 percent below year-ago levels, but prices haven’t moved very much,” Lawler said.

Builders have been reluctant to slash home prices for fear of alienating previous customers and encouraging current buyers to wriggle out of their contracts.

“Once clearing prices are way down, you can’t attract buyers with granite countertops and gold trim,” Lawler said.
…
Using the MBA and other data, Lawler calculates that there are 1.34 million one-to-four family first-lien mortgages in the foreclosure process, which amounts to 27 percent of the inventory of existing unsold homes. A year ago, foreclosures represented about 18 percent of the unsold inventory, he said.

As scary as that number sounds, so far it’s just on paper. It takes about a year for today’s foreclosures to be dumped on the market, adding to the already-bloated inventory of unsold homes, according to Michael Carliner, a former NAHB economist and now an independent housing economist in Potomac, Maryland.
…
“We are unlikely to see a sustained increase in nationwide new home sales until builders are willing to cut prices to match the plunge in the prices of existing homes in seriously distressed areas,” Lawler said.

If and when they do, you might not have to turn the home sales graph upside down to see the improvement.

From the AP:

Housing reform on tap in NJ

The Assembly will consider a sweeping plan Monday to revamp New Jersey’s affordable housing laws.

Supporters contend the bill would increase affordable housing throughout the state but critics argue it would push housing into suburban communities fighting overdevelopment.

“The Legislature can no longer take an ostrich-like view of the state’s housing policy,” said Assembly Speaker Joseph Roberts Jr., D-Camden, a bill sponsor. “New Jerseyans need homes they can afford and jobs they can reach.”
…
New Jersey is the only state with a constitutional requirement to create affordable housing, but critics contend that has failed. The bill under consideration would overhaul state low-cost housing laws for the first time in more than two decades.

Census data shows New Jersey is the second most expensive state for homeowners and the fourth for renters, despite a 1975 state Supreme Court ruling forcing all municipalities to provide housing for low- and moderate-income residents.

The measure under consideration would:

• Bar suburban towns from paying cities to take their affordable housing requirements. The agreements have been hailed as providing housing money to poor cities, but blasted as failing to promote affordable suburban housing.

• Create a fee on commercial development, which would raise up to $120 million to help bring 115,000 new affordable homes by 2018.

• Require 20 percent of housing in developments that get state funding be set aside as affordable.

• Allow municipalities in the Highlands, Pinelands, Meadowlands, Fort Monmouth and Atlantic City regions to jointly provide affordable housing around job and transportation centers.

• Permit developers to compete for tax credits to help build affordable housing.

From the Star Ledger:

Developers pushing overhaul of state laws

A coalition of developers and business leaders plan to offer a legislative package, unprecedented in size and scope, which would dramatically change the state’s approach to real estate and economic development.

The 12 bills would concede some development boundaries in exchange for incentives and concessions from the state, according to a review of drafts obtained by The Star-Ledger. The legislative initiative comes at a time when residential and commercial real estate has ground to a virtual halt in New Jersey following the collapse of the subprime mortgage market and a faltering economy.

“We’re swearing off sprawl and encouraging smart growth,” said Ted Zangari, the coalition’s lobbyist. “But New Jersey is the most ill-equipped state to deal with redevelopment issues.”
…
Corzine spokesman Jim Gardner declined to comment on the specifics of the proposed overhaul. “The impact of the national recession in New Jersey remains a major concern and requires us to remain focused on growing the state’s economy, but we must do so in an environmentally sound manner,” he said.
…
“The economic model this state has relied on is dead,” Stern said.

The coalition’s package, to be offered in stages throughout the year, is sure to draw criticism and staunch opposition from environmentalists.
…
Newark Mayor Cory Booker said he doesn’t back all of the bills but vigorously supports the intent of the package.

“The urgency to stimulate economic development in cities like mine is obvious,” he said, adding the risk of doing nothing will mean the continued exodus of development deals and jobs to Pennsylvania and other states.

From Bloomberg:

S&P/Case-Shiller U.S. Home-Price Index Falls 14.4%

Home prices in 20 U.S. metropolitan areas fell in March by the most in at least seven years, pointing to weakness in the housing market that will constrain economic growth.

The S&P/Case-Shiller home-price index dropped 14.4 percent from a year earlier, more than forecast and the most since the figures were first published in 2001. The gauge has fallen every month since January 2007.

Prices continue to slide as record foreclosures put more homes on the market and stricter lending standards make it harder to get loans. Falling home values are slowing consumer spending, threatening to halt the six-year expansion.

“Many households are putting their home-buying plans on hold, given the expectations that the house price corrections will persist,” Celia Chen, an economist at Moody’s Economy.com in West Chester, Pennsylvania, said before the report. “The housing downturn remains in full swing.”

Prices dropped 2.2 percent in March from a month earlier, after a 2.6 percent decline in February, the report showed. The figures aren’t adjusted for seasonal effects, so economists prefer to focus on year-over-year changes instead of month-to- month variations.

From Bloomberg:

New-Home Sales in the U.S. Rose 3.3% to 526,000 Pace

New-home sales in the U.S. unexpectedly rose in April after readings for the prior month were revised down, signaling a worsening housing slump is still a threat to the economy.

Sales increased 3.3 percent to an annual pace of 526,000 from a 509,000 rate the prior month that was the lowest in 17 years, the Commerce Department said today in Washington. A separate report today showed home prices dropped in the first quarter by the most in at least 20 years.

Concern about declining home values and stricter loan rules are limiting demand and foreclosures are throwing even more properties on the market. Federal Reserve policy makers view the prospect of larger decreases in house prices and the effect that would have on financial institutions as a “key source” of risk to growth.

“There’s certainly more room for declines in home sales,” Adam York, an economist at Wachovia Corp. in Charlotte, North Carolina, said before the report. “People will be reluctant to buy, lenders will be reluctant to lend. We don’t think a leveling out in the housing market is coming anytime soon.”

From the WSJ:

Keeping Families Above Water
May 8, 2008; Page A2

The latest flash point in the debate over the nation’s bursting housing bubble is this: Since so many American houses are worth less than their mortgages, should the government do more to get lenders to settle for less than the full debt, even if it may cost taxpayers some money?

The White House and Treasury say “No!” House Financial Services Committee Chairman Barney Frank and other House Democrats, with the quiet backing of Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke, say “Yes!”

Of the 80 million houses in the U.S., about 55 million have mortgages. Of those, four million are behind on payments. Foreclosure proceedings were begun on about 1.5 million homes last year, up more than 50% from 2006. This year will be worse. The Treasury, according to presentations its officials have made recently, predicts house prices could fall another 10% to 15% before touching bottom.

Moody’s Economy.com estimates that one in roughly 12 American families with mortgages — four million in all — already owe more than the current value of their homes. They are said to be “underwater.” The firm predicts that by early 2009 nearly one in four, or 12 million, homeowners will be underwater. Most will continue to pay mortgages on time. Many won’t, and are at risk of losing their homes.
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In ordinary times, a lender shouldn’t need prodding from the government to do what’s in its self-interest. But these aren’t ordinary times. The drop in home prices is pervasive, mortgage markets messy and complexities caused by turning mortgages into securities many. No one in Washington wants to help the “speculators” who bought homes they don’t live in or those who lent to them. And there’s broad agreement that those who bought more house than they’ll ever be able to afford are going to lose out. The debate revolves around the “preventable foreclosures.”
…
The White House condemns this as a “bailout” and says it won’t work. As the Treasury argued in a recent PowerPoint presentation: “Homeowners who can afford their mortgage but walk away because they are underwater are merely speculators.” (It’s a bit jarring to hear the Treasury vilifying people who are acting in their economic self-interest.) But if not for the widespread decline in house prices — “a relatively novel phenomenon,” Mr. Bernanke labels it — and the proliferation of no-money-down mortgages made with the acquiescence of regulators, these homeowners wouldn’t be underwater.

From the Star Ledger:

Meadowlands agency scraps EnCap project

After years of delays, cost overruns and diminished expectations, the New Jersey Meadowlands Commission yesterday killed an ambitious $1 billion project to build golf courses, a hotel and thousands of homes atop capped garbage dumps in Bergen County.

The commission’s members, contending developer EnCap Golf Holdings showed it cannot successfully finish the project, said they will seek to collect a $148 million performance bond meant to guarantee the cleanup of landfills in Rutherford and Lyndhurst.

The ultimate fate of the land — some 785 acres — has not been decided.

“EnCap is over,” commission Chairman Joseph Doria said after the board’s 4-0 vote in Lyndhurst. “We, I think, have given EnCap and all its entities the opportunity to perform. They have not been able to perform.”

In January, the commission granted EnCap the latest of several extensions to shore up its financing and to address environmental problems at the work site. The Meadowlands Commission’s vote yesterday morning to sever its relationship with EnCap came two days before the company’s latest deadline tomorrow.

New Jersey taxpayers stand to lose $51 million — the amount loaned to EnCap without repayment guarantees — as a result of the project’s failure.

Last night, in a brief meeting with reporters, Gov. Jon Corzine said the state would seek to recover its investment.

“First of all, we have to finish the remediation and hopefully be able to get to a conclusion that will allow us to get all of the money back,” Corzine said. “But there are legal agreements that are in place, so it’s not as easy as just saying we want to get our money back. We have to complete the remediation. We have to figure out what the long-run uses are going to be.”
…
Donald Trump, who took over management of the project on behalf of EnCap in November, called the commission’s decision “very unfair” and predicted a lengthy legal fight to come.

“This job will sit in court for years,” Trump said. “Lawsuits are being drawn up already. It’s a very sad ending to something that could have been great.”

He added: “This is why New Jersey doesn’t work.”

From Newsweek:

It’s Going to Get Worse
Economist David Lereah was once the housing market’s biggest cheerleader. Now he says the bust isn’t near over, and home prices still have a long way to fall.

Let me confess at the start: I spoke with Lereah frequently during the boom, and I always found him to be a smart, thoughtful observer. Sure, his assessment of the real estate market was consistently upbeat, but that’s hardly surprising given that he served as chief spokesman for a trade organization that believes it’s always a good time to buy a home. And the truth is I feel a little sorry for the teasing he has absorbed since the housing bubble burst. Yes, he did publish a book in 2006 with the unfortunate title “Why the Real Estate Boom Will Not Bust”—but he didn’t pick the title, the same way columnists like me aren’t always thrilled by the headlines our editors put atop our stories. And while I thought it was funny when my colleague Daniel Gross and others compared Lereah to Baghdad Bob, the Iraqi information minister who repeatedly announced his army’s military successes even as U.S. tanks were overtaking the capital, I can’t help feeling bad for him. But if you judge from the blogosphere, I’m in the minority with my sympathy.

It’s been more than a year since Lereah left NAR, so I called this week to check in. It turns out he has recently set up a new firm called Reecon Advisors, which is advising Wall Street firms and institutional investors about the real estate market. “Wall Street has an intense interest in [this], because they’re looking for when is the recovery going to come, and at what point does the cycle turn,” Lereah told me.

His answer: not yet. “We’re not at the bottom,” he says. “[People] want it to be near the bottom, but we’re not there yet. The leading indicators are still very bad. Pending home sales are still in bad shape. Mortgage applications are low … There’s still supply out there in abundance … This thing is going to get worse before it gets better.”

Lereah says that the industry may begin to see a slight uptick in sales later this summer, which could signal the start of the recovery. Home prices, however, will continue to fall. According to the latest numbers from the Case-Shiller index, the average U.S. home has lost around 15 percent of its value since the market’s peak. “We’re probably going to end up with a 20 percent [decline], but if I’m wrong it will be even more than that,” he says.

(emphasis added)

From Reuters:

Mid-Atlantic banks face more loan losses-report

Big Mid-Atlantic banks face more losses from the real estate slump, according to a report on Monday from a regional Federal Reserve that suggests the worst has not passed for the beleaguered banking sector.

Prospects of an ever-growing stockpile of bad loans on homes, office buildings and shopping malls will likely force banks to seek additional capital and/or to put aside more money to cover further losses, the Philadelphia Federal Reserve said.

While the latest study focused on banks the regional Fed oversees in three Mid-Atlantic states — Pennsylvania, New Jersey and Delaware, many of them do business across the country.

Financial conditions at these large Mid-Atlantic banks worsened across the board in the last quarter of 2007, deteriorating to their weakest levels in 15 years by some measures, the Philadelphia Fed said.

“Large banks may need to increase their provisioning for loan losses in future quarters, reducing income,” it said in its quarterly “Banking Brief.”

From the Philadelphia Fed:

Banking Brief - Fourth Quarter 2007 (PDF)

From the Record:

Xanadu in ugly predicament

The architects of Xanadu’s controversial exterior have been summoned to meet with Meadowlands Sports Complex officials next week to explain how the shopping and entertainment center will evolve into “an acceptable finished product.”

Xanadu President Laurence Siegel has agreed to have the architects appear before the board on March 27, according to a letter sent to Siegel on Monday by Carl Goldberg, board chairman of the New Jersey Sports and Exposition Authority.

“As you are keenly aware, the sports authority board has widespread concern with the current appearance of the project,” Goldberg said of the light blue, yellow, orange and green design that is part of the daily vista for many New Jersey Turnpike commuters. “It is imperative the board be able to hear and evaluate the testimony of your architect, along with an opportunity for questioning.”

Comments by public officials about the multicolored layout have been almost unanimously negative. Among the critics are East Rutherford Mayor James Cassella, state Sen. Loretta Weinberg, D-Teaneck, and board members such as Joseph Forgione and Ray Bateman.

From Forbes:

NJ redevelopment plan to be shown

Sprawled across 1,100 acres, Fort Monmouth occupies a good chunk of New Jersey, but its high-tech mission constitutes an even larger contribution to the state’s economy.

But with the Army base scheduled to close in 2011, the focus is on civilian redevelopment of the base, which lies along one of the Jersey shore’s commercial corridors and also touches scenic waterways.

The preliminary redevelopment plan will be revealed in Eatontown Tuesday, ahead of a public meeting Wednesday at Monmouth Regional High School in Tinton Falls. The fort is part of those towns and Oceanport.
…
‘There is an emphasis on high-technology job retention through utilization of existing buildings that are wired for high-technology, but it will include elements for housing, retail, other commercial elements as well,’ said Jack Donnelly, a policy adviser for Gov. Jon S. Corzine who has been assisting the Fort Monmouth Economic Revitalization Planning Authority.

The preliminary plan was developed during dozens of public meetings the authority has held since being formed nearly two years ago.
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The fort is important to the state, as its payroll for about 5,500 workers approaches $500 million and its overall economic impact is estimated at $2.5 billion annually by the state Commerce, Economic Growth & Tourism Commission. That includes money spent locally by workers and support jobs that involve about 22,000 people.

Nearly all the workers are civilians, and it is unclear how many will want to relocate to Maryland, where work has started on Fort Monmouth’s future home at the Aberdeen Proving Ground.

From the Star Ledger:

Affordable housing overhaul is in play

Assembly Speaker Joseph Roberts plans today to advance a long-awaited plan to reshape the state’s 2-decade-old affordable housing effort and ban wealthier towns from paying their way out of obligations to provide housing for low- and moderate-income residents.

Roberts’ bill, which he said will be introduced today, also would allow more families to qualify for affordable housing and increase commercial development fees to raise cash for the effort.

“I am, for the first time, cautiously optimistic that I will be able to advance the most significant housing reform legislation since the Fair Housing Act of 1985,” Roberts (D-Camden) told The Star-Ledger.

The “central element” of his plan would eliminate a program that allows towns to pay poorer communities — mainly cities and older suburbs — that agree to use the money for affordable housing.

Under the deals known as RCAs, for “regional contribution agreements,” cities get much-needed cash while other towns are spared up to half their obligation as they comply with court rulings that declared even the richest communities must provide affordable housing for poorer residents.

“I have felt for a long period of time that it is poor public policy and has resulted in a concentration of poverty in New Jersey’s urban areas,” Roberts said.

To replace the money that wealthy towns send to cities each year for affordable housing, Roberts wants to take $20 million from the $380 million in annual state realty tax revenue and use it for urban housing through a new Affordable Housing Trust Fund.

Roberts says the trust fund can also be beefed up by increasing commercial development fees earmarked for housing to 2.5 percent, from 2 percent. He also wants to tap money that towns have raised from these fees but have not used on housing. Roberts estimates towns are now sitting on $160 million, and his bill would force them to “use it” on housing deals within four years or “lose it” to the state trust fund.

The speaker also wants towns and developers to produce a higher percentage of affordable housing units — and wants to allow more residents to qualify by raising the $63,000 income limit for a family of four to about $87,000. The plan would require setting aside one-quarter of the new housing for households with annual incomes of about $19,000.

From the Record:

Home builder reports $131M loss

Hovnanian Enterprises, the state’s largest homebuilder, reported Monday that it lost $131 million in the first quarter of fiscal 2008, more than double its $57 million loss in the same period a year ago.

It was the company’s sixth consecutive quarterly loss. Like other home builders, Hovnanian has been struggling with a deep downturn in demand for housing, following a boom in the first half of this decade.

“Market conditions remain challenging across many of our markets,” said Ara K. Hovnanian, president and chief executive officer. “We continue to focus on reducing our inventories, maximizing cash flow and shrinking our overhead.”

Hovnanian is the developer of a number of communities in North Jersey, including the Four Seasons at Great Notch community in West Paterson, town houses in Hawthorne and Montvale, and several luxury residential buildings along the Hudson River waterfront in Jersey City, West New York and North Bergen.

The company’s first quarter loss came to $2.07 a share, up from 91 cents a share in the year-ago period.

In its 2007 fiscal year, which ended Oct. 31, Hovnanian lost $637.8 million, or $10.11 a share. The largest part of that loss came in the fourth quarter, when the company lost $469.3 million.

Since mid-2006, the company has cut staff, discounted prices and dropped options to buy land.

“They make not make it through 2008,” said Vicki Bryan, a Friendswood, Texas-based senior high- yield analyst for New York-based Gimme Credit LLC. “The only way to generate cash is to sell inventory, and if you’ve cut your prices then you’ve cut the value of your collateral, which is your unsold homes.”

Ara Hovnanian told Bloomberg TV on Feb. 21 that the company had rolled prices back to the levels of 2002 and 2003.

From Bloomberg:

Corzine Spoils Manhattan View for New Jersey With Ferris Wheel

Don’t expect residents of Bergen County, New Jersey, to be first in line for a ride on the Ferris wheel going up in their backyards, the tallest in the U.S.

Neighbors complain that the project will obstruct their view of Manhattan’s skyline across the Hudson River, hurting property values. Lane Biviano, Rutherford borough’s attorney, is mustering public opposition to the Ferris wheel on a Web site listing beefs about its safety and aesthetics.

The ride will tower 287 feet (87 meters), eclipsing Dallas’s 212-foot Texas Star. It’s part of the $2 billion Xanadu sports and entertainment complex being built next to the Meadowlands racetrack, a project Governor Jon Corzine backs as a way to stimulate the state’s economy.

“We don’t want our town to be associated with some honky- tonk Ferris wheel,” said East Rutherford Mayor James Cassella, whose community includes the Xanadu site. “There’s a concern about our image.”
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“I’m sure there were people who didn’t like the Eiffel Tower being built because they felt it would impede their view,” Kaplan said. “You can’t please everybody. We believe this will be of enormous beauty.”