New Jersey Real Estate Report

From Bloomberg:

U.S. Mortgage Time Bomb Needs Defusing Yesterday: John F. Wasik

When talking about the U.S. home market, mentioning “the other shoe to drop” was quaint about a year ago. Now we are referring only to bombs.

The latest ordnance is the option adjustable-rate mortgage, one of the many sucker loans marketed during the housing boom. Option ARMs basically gave borrowers four ways to pay back, most of them involving low initial outlays that would reset at much higher monthly amounts at a future date.

Of the $200 billion of these loans outstanding, almost $30 billion is due to reset this year and $67 billion in 2010, according to Fitch Ratings, a New York-based ratings company.

The resets inflict more trauma on the U.S. housing market. The average option ARM monthly payment will soar 63 percent — or $1,052. Although there was a slight increase in home sales in November, prices fell 18 percent from a year earlier, according to the S&P/Case-Shiller Index.

The pain continues. Since most option ARM borrowers will be unable to refinance because of lowered credit ratings or lack of home equity, many of those resets will result in more foreclosures and further depress home prices.

Ultimately, the option-ARM resets might plunge 8 million more households into foreclosure. That’s in addition to the 2.3 million facing home loss last year, says Eric Rothmann, an analyst for Zacks Investment Research in Chicago.
…
The shock-and-awe days of the housing crisis are far from over because of these loans and their cousins: subprime, “Alt- A” and some prime mortgages. While Barack Obama’s administration struggles to fix the banking industry, it will be difficult to directly remove these loans — and related securities — from balance sheets without triggering billions in writedowns.

The option-ARM barrage will exacerbate the housing decline in the worst-hit areas.

Homes that can’t be refinanced probably won’t be sold immediately. Assuming no government aid comes along to help these homeowners, the houses will go into foreclosure and be resold at much lower prices. That fuels what economists call a “feedback loop” of ever-lower values.

Houses that are resold are discounted at least 30 percent from the original selling prices, according to U.S. researchers John Campbell, Stefano Giglio and Parag Pathak, who studied 1.8 million transactions in Massachusetts over the past 20 years.

From the AP:

Home prices post 18 percent annual drop in October

A closely watched index shows home prices dropped by the sharpest annual rate on record in October.

The Standard & Poor’s/Case-Shiller 20-city housing index released Tuesday fell by a record 18 percent from October last year, the largest drop since its inception in 2000. The 10-city index tumbled 19.1 percent, its biggest decline in its 21-year history.

Both indices have recorded year-over-year declines for 22 straight months. Prices are at levels not seen since March 2004.

Prices in the 20-city index have plummeted more than 23.4 percent from their peak in July 2006. The 10-city index has fallen 25 percent since its peak in June 2006.

None of the 20 cities saw annual price gains in October — for the seventh consecutive month.

From Bloomberg:

October Home Prices in 20 U.S. Cities Fall 18% From Year Ago

Home prices in 20 U.S. cities declined at the fastest rate on record, depressed by mounting foreclosures and slumping sales.

The S&P/Case-Shiller index declined 18 percent in the 12 months to October, more than forecast, after dropping 17.4 percent in September. The gauge has fallen every month since January 2007, and year-over-year records began in 2001.

The financial market meltdown that’s reverberated around the globe has prompted banks to curb lending, signaling the housing slump will persist for a fourth year in 2009. Falling property values have eroded household wealth, causing consumers to pare spending and deepening what is projected to be the longest recession in the postwar period.

“As 2008 comes to an end, the housing market is left in a weaker state than at the beginning of the year,” Michelle Meyer, an economist at Barclays Capital Inc. in New York, said before the report. “Uncertainty remains high given the unprecedented nature of the recession.”

Economists forecast the 20-city index would fall 17.9 percent from a year earlier, according to the median of 21 estimates in a Bloomberg News survey. Projections ranged from declines of 17 percent to 18.4 percent.

Compared with a year earlier, all areas in the 20-city survey showed a decrease in prices in October, led by a 33 percent drop in Phoenix and a 32 percent decline in Las Vegas.

“The bear market continues,” David Blitzer, chairman of the index committee at S&P, said in a statement. The declines in Atlanta, Seattle and Portland surpassed 10 percent for the first time, he said.

From MarketWatch:

Home prices off record 18% in past year, Case-Shiller says

Home prices in 20 major U.S. cities dropped 2.2% in October from the prior month and had fallen a record 18% from the previous year, according to the Case-Shiller price index published Tuesday by Standard & Poor’s.

Prices have fallen in all 20 cities compared with both the prior month and October 2007, and 14 of the 20 metro areas showed record rates of annual declines. Also, 14 of 20 areas sustianed declines of more than 10% on a year-over-year basis.

For Case-Shiller’s original 10-city index, prices fell a record 19.1% in the previous 12 months.

“The bear market continues; home prices are back to their March 2004 levels,” said David Blitzer, chairman of the index committee at Standard & Poor’s.

The largest price drop for October was seen in Detroit, with a fall of 4.5% amid growing troubles for the Big Three automakers.
For the year, Phoenix chalked up the biggest drop — 32.7%.

From the Wall Street Journal:

Case-Shiller Index Shows Sharpest Home-Price Declines in Sun Belt

Home prices continued to drop as the economic downturn deepened further in October, according to the S&P/Case-Shiller home-price indexes, a closely watched gauge of U.S. home prices, with home prices in the Sun Belt continuing to be hit hardest.

“The bear market continues; home prices are back to their March 2004 levels,” said David M. Blitzer, chairman of S&P’s index committee. He added that both composite indexes and 14 of the 20 metropolitan areas are reporting new record declines. As of October, the 10-city index is down 25% from its mid-2006 peak and the 20-city is down 23%, Mr. Blitzer said.

The indexes showed prices in 10 major metropolitan areas fell 19% in October from a year earlier and 3.6% from September. The drop marks the 10-city index’s 13th straight monthly report of a record decline.

In 20 major metropolitan areas, home prices dropped 18% from the prior year, also a record, and 2.2% from September.

Once again, none of the regions was able to stave off a decline from September to October.

Overview:

S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices Overview

Data:

S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices Data

From the AP:

Existing home sales sink by 8.6 percent in November, as prices plunge a record 13.2 percent

A real estate group says sales of existing homes plummeted far more than expected last month as buyers reeled from October’s big plunge on Wall Street. The median sales price fell by the largest amount on record.

The National Association of Realtors said Tuesday that sales of existing homes fell 8.6 percent to an annual rate of 4.49 million in November, from a downwardly revised pace of 4.91 million in October.

Sales had been expected to fall to a pace of 4.9 million units. according to Thomson Reuters.

The median sales price plunged 13.2 percent in November to $181,300, from $208,000 a year ago. That was the lowest price since February 2004 and the biggest year-over-year drop on records going back to 1968.

From Bloomberg:

U.S. Existing Home Sales Fall 8.6% in November to 4.49 Mln Rate

Sales of previously owned homes in the U.S. fell more than forecast in November and prices dropped by the most on record, indicating the real estate slump will extend into a fourth year and worsen the recession.

Purchases declined 8.6 percent to an annual rate of 4.49 million, from a 4.91 million rate in October that was less than previously estimated, the National Association of Realtors said today in Washington. The median price dropped 13.2 percent from a year earlier, the biggest decline since records started in 1968. Separately, the Commerce Department reported today that new-home sales fell 2.9 percent last month.

Prices will plunge further as job losses sap demand, foreclosures add to the property glut and prospective buyers get turned away by mortgage lenders. The Federal Reserve this month cut its benchmark interest rate target to as low as zero and said it would take more steps to ease borrowing as the longest postwar recession looms.

“Foreclosures are prolonging the declines in home prices,” Jonathan Basile, an economist at Credit Suisse Holdings in New York, said before the report. “Increasing unemployment is a continued impediment to housing.”

Resales were forecast to fall to a 4.93 million annual rate from an originally reported 4.98 million in October, according to the median estimate of 63 economists in a Bloomberg News survey. Projections ranged from 3.98 million to 5.2 million.

Sales dropped 10.6 percent compared with a year earlier. Resales averaged 5.67 million in 2007 and before today’s report, fluctuated around a 4.96 million rate this year.

The number of previously-owned unsold homes on the market at the end of November represented 11.2 months’ worth at the current sales pace, up from 10.3 months’ at the end of the prior month.
…
The median price of an existing home fell to $181,300, and the percentage drop from a year ago was “probably the largest price decline since the Great Depression,” although records don’t go back that far, said NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun.

Foreclosures and short sales accounted for 45 percent of last month’s home purchases, Yun said.

From MarketWatch:

U.S. Nov. existing home sales fall 8.6% to 4.49 mln units

With plummeting prices, resales of U.S. single-family homes and condos dropped 8.6% in November to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.49 million, the National Association of Realtors reported Tuesday. Resales are down 10.6% in the past year. Economists surveyed by MarketWatch had expected sales to fall to an annual rate of 4.9 million. In the past year the median sales price fell 13.2% — the largest decline since data collection began in 1968 and likely since the Great Depression — to $181,300. The inventory of unsold homes on the market rose 0.1% to 4.2 million, an 11.2 month supply at the current sales pace. NAR attributed November’s poor results to the weak stock market, job losses and low consumer confidence.

From MarketWatch:

U.S Nov. new home sales down 2.9% to 407,000

U.S. new home sales fell to their lowest level in over 17 years in November, the Commerce Department estimated Tuesday. New home sales fell 2.9% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 407,000. This is the lowest level since 401,000 in January 1991. New home sales are 35.3% below their level in November 2007. The drop was slightly above the 400,000 pace expected by economists surveyed by MarketWatch. New-home sales in October were revised to a 419,000 level compared with the previous estimate of 433,000. The months’ supply of homes on the market fell slightly to 11.5 months in November from 11.8 months in October. Median sales prices have fallen 11.5% in the past year to $220,400.

From Reuters:

November home sales fall 2.9 percent

ales of newly built single-family homes slowed in November to the weakest levels since 1991, according to Commerce Department data on Tuesday that offered fresh evidence of housing market distress.

The seasonally adjusted annual sales pace of 407,000 was down 2.9 percent from October and was the lowest rate since January, 1991.

Economists polled by Reuters had forecast sales would notch a 420,000 rate compared with a downwardly revised 419,000 in October, previously reported as 433,000.

The median sales price rose to $220,400 from $214,600 in October. The median marks the half-way point, with half of all houses sold above that level and half below.

From MarketWatch:

Foreclosures could top 8 million: Credit Suisse

More than 8 million mortgages could go into foreclosure in coming years in the wake of the credit meltdown as the economy worsens and the U.S. suffers more job losses, according to a recent report.

Credit Suisse’s fixed-income research team forecast that 8.1 million mortgages will be in foreclosure over the next four years, representing 16% of all mortgages. In a recent research note, Credit Suisse lifted its earlier forecast from April when it predicted 6.5 million foreclosures, or 13% of all mortgages.
…
“Despite some initial signs that subprime foreclosures were near a plateau, the combination of severe weakening in the economy, continued decline in home prices, steady increase in delinquencies, particularly in the prime mortgage space, ensure that foreclosure numbers, absent more dramatic intervention, will march steadily higher,” Credit Suisse wrote.
…
Earlier this week, Office of the Comptroller of the Currency director John Dugan released statistics showing a high re-default rate on mortgages that have been modified in the first two quarters of 2008.

“The results were surprising, and not in a good way,” Dugan told a gathering in Washington at the Office of Thrift Supervision’s annual conference.

According to the OCC statistics, which looked at loans modified in the first quarter and second quarter of 2008, 36% of borrowers had re-defaulted by being more than 30 days past due and after six months the rate was roughly 56%.

After eight months, 58% of borrowers had re-defaulted. The OCC tracked the number of borrowers that re-defaulted on their mortgages after the modification was completed.
…
Meanwhile, Credit Suisse said that if home prices continue to spiral down, more and more mainstream borrowers could end up walking away from their homes, especially if the mortgage is worth more than the value of the house.

“Thus far, the population of subprime borrowers in the U.S. is relatively small,” the analysts wrote.

“However, the severe recession that appears more and more likely, coupled with the collapse of confidence in housing and resultant foreclosures and the impact on credit scores, risks transforming the U.S. into a subprime society.”

Adding to the headwinds, a deteriorating labor market will put more pressure on foreclosures, they said.

From the AP via CNBC:

How Freddie Mac Splashed Cash to Halt Regulation

From a hefty lobbying budget to the use of free baseball tickets, Freddie Mac fended off any meaningful regulation in the years before the housing mortgage giant crashed, records obtained by The Associated Press show.

When the Washington Nationals played their first-ever baseball game in the nation’s capital in April 2005, two congressmen who oversaw Freddie Mac had choice seats — courtesy of the very company they were supposed to be keeping an eye on.

Efforts to tighten government regulation were gaining support on Capitol Hill, and Freddie Mac was fighting back.
…
The Nationals tickets were bargains for Freddie Mac, part of a well-orchestrated, multimillion-dollar campaign to preserve its largely regulatory-free environment, with particular pressure exerted on Republicans who controlled Congress at the time.

Internal Freddie Mac budget records show $11.7 million was paid to 52 outside lobbyists and consultants in 2006. Power brokers such as former House Speaker Newt Gingrich were recruited with six-figure contracts.
…
The tactics worked — for a time. Freddie Mac was able to operate with a relatively free hand until the housing bubble ultimately burst in 2007.

From the Wall Street Journal:

Investors Hit BofA Loan Modifications

Bank of America Corp.’s decision to embark on an $8.4 billion home-loan-modification program to settle charges brought by state attorneys general against Countrywide Financial Corp. was hailed as a milestone when the deal was announced this fall. But apparently nobody talked to one group that will shoulder much of the settlement’s costs: investors who hold securities backed by Countrywide mortgages.

ow, some of those investors are crying foul, adding to the confusion over what is becoming a central issue in efforts to resolve the wave of foreclosures that is at the root of the global financial crisis.

J.P. Morgan Chase & Co. and Citigroup Inc. recently announced foreclosure-prevention programs that aim to reduce interest rates, extend repayment schedules and, in the case of Citigroup, reduce loan amounts, to help borrowers keep their homes. But the programs have focused primarily on loans wholly owned by those companies because they feel they have more authority to rework those mortgages.

More than $2 trillion in mortgage loans were packaged into mortgage-backed securities and sold to investors by Wall Street, according to Inside Mortgage Finance. But opinions vary regarding the degree to which these mortgages can be modified.
…
Under terms of contracts with investors, mortgage companies generally have the authority to rework loans when it is likely to benefit investors. But just how much authority the mortgage companies have is open to debate.

Modifications also can benefit some bondholders at the expense of others. Reducing a borrower’s loan balance, for instance, may hurt holders of the riskiest piece of a mortgage securitization more than investors who bought securities that had higher credit ratings.
…
Last week, a group of about two dozen investors met in New York with attorneys at Grais & Ellsworth LLP, who believe they may have grounds to sue. Attorney David Grais told them that Bank of America was conflicted when it agreed to the settlement because Countrywide was both the originator of the mortgages and the servicer of the securities. “This is penalty shifting,” Mr. Grais said.

From Bloomberg:

Mortgage Seekers Find Rates Are Down, Credit Standards Tighter

U.S. mortgage rates are dropping. Good luck getting a loan.

Existing home prices have fallen 7.7 percent since their July 2006 high and rates dropped below 6 percent last week for the first time in more than three months. The obstacle for people ready to buy is finding a willing lender, said Suzanne Bach, senior vice president of New York-based Guardhill Financial Corp., and an 18-year home lending veteran.

“Nobody really wants to take risk anymore,” Bach said in an interview. “Deals are getting really hard to do now.”

Lenders including Bank of America Corp. and JPMorgan Chase & Co. keep requiring higher credit scores, bigger cash down payments, and more income than was needed to buy a home during the five-year housing boom. Astoria Federal Savings, a Lake Success, New York-based lender that holds mortgages on its books rather than selling them to investors, has even started discounting annual employee bonuses in calculating income.

About 75 percent of U.S. banks tightened standards on mortgage lending to the most credit-worthy borrowers in the three months ended in July, according to the Federal Reserve’s quarterly Senior Loan Officer Survey released Aug. 11.

The average U.S. 30-year fixed-rate mortgage was 5.78 percent yesterday, down from 6.08 percent the week before, according to Bankrate.com. The Fed is scheduled to meet Tuesday and may lower its key rate to 1.75 percent from 2 percent which may reduce mortgage rates further.
…
“Tighter standards assure the loans are less likely to fail, but also have had the unfortunate effect of limiting the ability of some first-time home buyers to enter the market,” said Sara Tinsley Demarest, spokeswoman for the Washington-based Mortgage Bankers Association.
…
The credit squeeze is contributing to falling home sales. In July, the National Association of Realtors’ index of pending home resales fell 3.2 percent, a decline NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun blamed on “overly stringent lending criteria.” The index is down 6.8 percent since July 2007.
…
“The most difficult thing now is the appraisals are being scrutinized so much more than they have ever been,” Stockert said. “The higher the sale price, the more scrutiny that is happening. We’re talking two or three appraisals on the same property.”

Lehman…

Merrill…

Is there anything more to say?

(Update: 24 hours later and 650+ comments, I guess there was more to say.)

From the Financial Times:

Tighter rules dash hopes of end to squeeze

Banks expect to tighten lending standards for US households and businesses through to the end of the year and into 2009, damping any hopes of a quick end to the credit squeeze, according to a report by the ­Federal Reserve.

The Fed survey of senior loan officers is conducted every three months. Monday’s report was based on responses from 52 US banks and 21 US branches of internationally based banks in mid-July.

It highlighted that domestic banks had tightened standards in “all major loan categories” since the last survey in April, with consumer loans in particular becoming tougher to secure.

“Coming at a time when the cash flow from the rebates has dried up and the growth in labour income is slowing to a crawl, the restriction in lending to households underscores the challenges facing the consumer in the second half of the year,” said Michael Feroli, a US economist at JPMorgan.

The survey also pointed to a bleak outlook, with “large net fractions” of foreign and US banks expecting lending standards to tighten further in the remaining part of this year and “smaller, though substantial, net fractions” expected the stricter terms to continue next year.

“These days, you practically need the Jaws of Life [a hydraulic rescue tool] to pry open a banker’s wallet,” said Mike Larson, an interest rate and property analyst at Weiss Research.

“Overall, the longer the crunch ­lingers, the longer the economic slump could drag on.”

From Reuters:

Fed says banks broadly tighten U.S. loan standards

Banks in the United States further tightened lending standards in all major categories, especially for consumer loans, in the past three months amid a weakening economic outlook, according to a Federal Reserve survey released on Monday.
…
The survey added to evidence that a year-long credit crunch sparked initially by subprime mortgage defaults is far from easing as banks hoard capital and make it harder to borrow.

The tightness in credit is now being driven by broader weakness in the U.S. economy and is defying efforts by the Fed to boost liquidity in the banking system and keep interest rates low.

“It clearly is going to be difficult to get a loan. The Fed cutting rates doesn’t help a lot when you can’t get a lender to make a loan,” said Gary Thayer, senior economist at Wachovia Securities in St. Louis.

He said the tighter lending standards was typical in a weakening economy, and creates headwinds that will help delay recovery, along with a worsening housing slump and still-high fuel prices.

The tightening of credit was particularly pronounced in the consumer sector, where banks increased minimum credit scores required on credit cards and reduced card balance limits.
…
he housing sector got no relief in the past three months, as lenders further tightened standards all mortgage categories. The Fed said about 75 percent of U.S. banks tightened lending standards on prime mortgages — those given to customers with better credit histories — versus about 60 percent who said they tightened in the April.
…
However, 50 percent of the respondents said there was a lack of demand for such loans and 40 percent said there was a limited number of mortgage applicants at their bank who meet the Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac underwriting criteria for conforming jumbo loans, which require better credit scores and higher down payments.

From the WSJ:

Housing Bill Relies on Banks To Take Loan Losses
Lawmakers Pressure Lenders to Pitch In To Curb Foreclosures
By DAMIAN PALETTA
July 28, 2008; Page A3

WASHINGTON — The housing rescue bill passed by the Senate Saturday hasn’t been signed into law, but top Democrats already are putting pressure on regulators and bankers to make sure a major program to prevent foreclosures doesn’t fall flat.

For struggling U.S. homeowners, the success or failure of the program — which would let roughly 400,000 owners refinance into affordable, government-backed loans — depends largely on bankers’ willingness to take a partial loss on the loans and to reduce the amount of money borrowers owe.

Bankers say they will do it, but it isn’t clear how many loans they might be willing to restructure.

“I absolutely do believe that there will be more principal reductions,” Michael Gross, Bank of America Corp.’s managing director for loss mitigation, mortgage, home-equity and insurance services, told a congressional panel Friday.
…
Experts say the program’s eventual participation could rise dramatically if home prices continue to drop — which could put more pressure on lenders to offer borrowers more assistance. Lawmakers are already pressing regulators and lenders to prepare now so the program can begin without delay when it goes into effect Oct. 1.
…
Taking a loss on a loan by writing down the principal owed is one of the least desirable options for loan servicers. They typically prefer to either lower the interest rate or extend the life of the loan — from 30 years, for example, to 40 years.

“The real problem is going to be, just like with every program out there, are the banks going to take this seriously?” said Rebecca Case-Grammatico, a staff attorney at the Empire Justice Center in Rochester, N.Y., who advises clients facing foreclosure. “And if they don’t, we’re in the same position we’ve been in all along.”
…
The program will be run by the Federal Housing Administration, a division of HUD, and will insure up to $300 billion in refinanced 30-year, fixed-rate loans. The mortgages can’t be for more than 90% of a home’s newly appraised value. For mortgages that exceed the value of the home, the lender would have to voluntarily write down the principal to the qualifying level. If the home goes up in value, the borrower must share newly created equity with the FHA.

The program will begin Oct. 1 and end Sept. 30, 2011. Borrowers won’t be able to qualify if they have intentionally defaulted on their loans or if they had a debt-to-income ratio of less than 31% as of March 1.

From the WSJ:

FDIC Faces Mortgage Mess After Running Failed Bank
Subprime Lender Made Problem Loans On Regulators’ Watch
By MARK MAREMONT
July 21, 2008; Page A1

Federal officials heap much of the blame for the subprime mortgage mess on lenders, claiming they recklessly made too many high-cost home loans to borrowers who couldn’t afford them.

It turns out that the U.S. government itself was one of the lenders giving out high-interest, subprime mortgages, some of them predatory, according to government documents filed in federal court.

The unusual situation, which is still bedeviling bank regulators, stems from the 2001 seizure by federal officials of Superior Bank FSB, then a national subprime lender based in Hinsdale, Ill. Rather than immediately shuttering or selling Superior, as it normally does with failed banks, the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. continued to run the bank’s subprime-mortgage business for months as it looked for a buyer. With FDIC people supervising day-to-day operations, Superior funded more than 6,700 new subprime loans worth more than $550 million, according to federal mortgage data.

The FDIC then sold a big chunk of the loans to another bank. That loan pool was afflicted by the same problems for which regulators have faulted the industry: lending to unqualified borrowers, inflated appraisals and poor verification of borrowers’ incomes, according to a written report from a government-hired expert. The report said that many of the loans never should have been made in the first place.
…
At the time the FDIC was running Superior, subprime lending hadn’t yet emerged as the national disaster it since has become. But some lending experts already were faulting industry practices and warning about rising delinquencies. The FDIC’s problems with Superior could fuel criticism that bank regulators were slow to heed warning signs.
…
In a recent court filing, the FDIC estimated that about 1,500 of the 5,315 loans it sold to Beal either have defaulted or are nonperforming. The FDIC already has bought back another 247 of the mortgages, most of them for violations of federal anti-predatory-lending laws intended to protect borrowers from unreasonably high fees or deceptive practices. Beal Bank has said in court filings that 73 of the repurchased loans were originated while the FDIC was running Superior.
…
The FDIC says that was a draft report. Last month, the agency filed a final version in court, which estimated that about 19% of the loans sold to Beal contained “material” breaches of the warranties — meaning there were significant problems with close to 1,000 mortgages. This version of the report blames Beal Bank for some of the portfolio’s lost value, saying it serviced the loans in an “inferior” manner.

From the Wall Street Journal:

The Biggest Housing Losers
May 12, 2008

You may not know it, dear reader, but Congress is playing you for a sap. During the housing mania, you didn’t lend money at teaser rates to borrowers who couldn’t pay, or buy a bigger house than you could afford. You paid your bills on time. As a reward for that good judgment and restraint, Barney Frank is now going to let you bail out the least responsible bankers and borrowers.

The Massachusetts Democrat’s housing bill passed the House Thursday, and it makes us wish we had splurged like so many others. In the name of helping strapped home buyers, Mr. Frank is giving lenders a chance to pass their worst paper onto Uncle Sugar. If both borrower and lender agree to participate, lenders can accept 85% of the current appraised mortgage value and in return get to dump up to $300 billion of those loans on the Federal Housing Administration (FHA). Guess which loans they are likely to dump?

Looking at the details in Mr. Frank’s 45-page first draft of this bill, FIS Applied Analytics estimated that taxpayer losses could reach as high as $27 billion, more than four times Mr. Frank’s estimate. The next draft, clocking in at 72 pages when it passed Mr. Frank’s committee, was miraculously scored by the Congressional Budget Office at “only” a $2.7 billion cost to taxpayers.

CBO lowballed it in part because it assumed that most people eligible for this assistance will not apply for it. It is true that some lenders may be wary of taking a 15% haircut off the top, but watch out if bankers and borrowers do take the taxpayers up on Mr. Frank’s offer. This is especially likely because at the same time that Mr. Frank touts the lowball estimate, he is also making mortgage servicers an offer they can’t refuse.
…
The plan seems to get more generous by the week, at least if you’re an ally of Mr. Frank. The monster he brought to the floor Thursday runs to hundreds of pages. State governments receive authority to issue $10 billion in tax-exempt bonds to subsidize home purchases and to help subprime borrowers refinance.

In a sop to builders, Mr. Frank also expands the low-income housing tax credit, and he creates a new refundable credit for certain home buyers. To help defray the cost to the Treasury, Mr. Frank raises taxes on multinational companies by delaying a scheduled reform. A law set to take effect this year would expand firms’ ability to claim foreign tax credits and thereby avoid double taxation. Mr. Frank would put it off for another year.
…
We can only imagine what else is buried in this tome, which deserves a Presidential veto. But the worst problem remains its invitation for bankers to dump their biggest losers on taxpayers. The Frank plan appears to take care of everyone in the housing market, except the renters and homeowners who lived within their means.

From the WSJ:

Keeping Families Above Water
May 8, 2008; Page A2

The latest flash point in the debate over the nation’s bursting housing bubble is this: Since so many American houses are worth less than their mortgages, should the government do more to get lenders to settle for less than the full debt, even if it may cost taxpayers some money?

The White House and Treasury say “No!” House Financial Services Committee Chairman Barney Frank and other House Democrats, with the quiet backing of Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke, say “Yes!”

Of the 80 million houses in the U.S., about 55 million have mortgages. Of those, four million are behind on payments. Foreclosure proceedings were begun on about 1.5 million homes last year, up more than 50% from 2006. This year will be worse. The Treasury, according to presentations its officials have made recently, predicts house prices could fall another 10% to 15% before touching bottom.

Moody’s Economy.com estimates that one in roughly 12 American families with mortgages — four million in all — already owe more than the current value of their homes. They are said to be “underwater.” The firm predicts that by early 2009 nearly one in four, or 12 million, homeowners will be underwater. Most will continue to pay mortgages on time. Many won’t, and are at risk of losing their homes.
…
In ordinary times, a lender shouldn’t need prodding from the government to do what’s in its self-interest. But these aren’t ordinary times. The drop in home prices is pervasive, mortgage markets messy and complexities caused by turning mortgages into securities many. No one in Washington wants to help the “speculators” who bought homes they don’t live in or those who lent to them. And there’s broad agreement that those who bought more house than they’ll ever be able to afford are going to lose out. The debate revolves around the “preventable foreclosures.”
…
The White House condemns this as a “bailout” and says it won’t work. As the Treasury argued in a recent PowerPoint presentation: “Homeowners who can afford their mortgage but walk away because they are underwater are merely speculators.” (It’s a bit jarring to hear the Treasury vilifying people who are acting in their economic self-interest.) But if not for the widespread decline in house prices — “a relatively novel phenomenon,” Mr. Bernanke labels it — and the proliferation of no-money-down mortgages made with the acquiescence of regulators, these homeowners wouldn’t be underwater.

From Bloomberg:

Bernanke Urges Action to Slow Jump in U.S. Home Foreclosures

Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke, seeking to end the worst housing slump in a quarter century, urged the government and mortgage lenders to intensify their efforts to avoid home foreclosures.

Bernanke, in a speech in New York yesterday, also reiterated his call for lenders to forgive portions of mortgages for some struggling homeowners. He said proposals should be “tightly targeted” at borrowers at greatest risk of losing their properties, and avoid providing an incentive for defaults.

The Fed chief also backed the idea of having the Federal Housing Administration refinance troubled mortgages, a concept included in Democratic legislation in Congress, without explicitly endorsing the bill. His remarks indicate a gap with the Bush administration, which has preferred to rely on industry-led efforts.

“Realistic public- and private-sector policies must take into account the fact that traditional foreclosure-avoidance strategies may not always work well in the current environment,” Bernanke said in remarks to a Columbia Business School dinner.
…
As the housing recession deepened, officials in Washington have offered a number of different proposals. Foreclosure filings rose 57 percent in March from a year earlier, according to Irvine, California-based RealtyTrac Inc.

“Conditions in mortgage markets remain quite difficult, and mortgage delinquencies have climbed steeply,” Bernanke said.
…
Bernanke did note that accelerating foreclosures may push home prices down further, hurting the broader economy and threatening the financial system. He anticipated the foreclosure rate will increase this year after such proceedings began on 1.5 million properties last year.

A quarterly Fed survey yesterday showed the share of banks making it tougher for companies and consumers to borrow approached a record last month in the aftermath of the subprime mortgage collapse. The Senior Loan Officers’ Survey found a net 70 percent of banks increased their loan rates over their cost of funds.
…
Bernanke warned that “to be effective, such programs must be tightly targeted to borrowers at the highest risk of foreclosure.” Qualification guidelines could be set, such as identifying an amount of debt compared with income, or the extent to which the home value is below the mortgage amount, he indicated.

“Finding the right balance — particularly the need to avoid programs that give borrowers who can make their payments an incentive to default — is difficult,” the Fed chairman said.

From the Wall Street Journal:

Banks Toughen Terms on Loans
Both Consumers And Businesses Feel the Impact
By SUDEEP REDDY
May 6, 2008; Page A3

In a blow to an already wobbly U.S. economy, banks are imposing tougher lending terms for consumers and businesses across the board.

The Federal Reserve’s survey of banks’ senior loan officers, one of the most closely watched gauges of lending practices, found that the credit crunch is widening. The proportion of domestic banks tightening their standards was at or near historical highs for almost all loan categories, including credit cards and student loans.

The survey, conducted in April, showed that demand for loans weakened in most categories, though not as much as in the previous three months.

The lending pullback comes as the economy slows to a crawl. The banks’ hesitancy to lend could restrain consumer spending as well as investment by businesses that depend on borrowing.

About a third of the 56 domestic banks surveyed in April reported raising their standards for credit-card loans over the past three months, up from just 10% in January. Banks are being tougher on credit-score requirements and are reducing credit limits on card loans. In addition, 44% of banks, up from 30% in January, tightened standards for other consumer loans.
…
Banks continue to get more restrictive in their real-estate lending as the housing bust adds to their losses. About 70% of banks said they tightened standards for new home-equity lines of credit over the prior three months. Roughly half of the banks said they tightened terms on existing home-equity lines of credit over the past six months because of home prices falling below their appraised values. Most lenders also cited loan defaults and a change in borrowers’ financial circumstances for tightening terms.

More than 60% of banks tightened standards on prime mortgages, up from just over half in January and 15% a year ago. At least three out of four said they tightened standards for nontraditional and subprime mortgages in the past three months. For commercial-real-estate loans, about 80% of banks tightened their lending standards.