$1m to buy the average condo/coop in NYC

Posted on December 28, 2015 by grim

From the WSJ:

New York City Housing Prices Set Record

Manhattan apartment prices reached new highs in 2015, with the typical price of a co-op or condominium topping $1 million for the first time as the year drew to a close.

The new benchmark, in the fourth quarter, was a milestone in the rising cost, and for many the unaffordability, of homeownership in New York City.

Many brokers and analysts attributed the marker to a surge in closings at expensive new buildings that have been under construction for years, including many deals signed months or even years ago. The rest of the market showed more modest prices gains and slower sales growth.

Instead of celebrating the new benchmark, brokers described an alternative real estate universe in the second half of 2015: There were signs of a slowdown beginning in the summer, with a modest uptick late in the year.

The number of foreign buyers dropped, they said, while New York buyers became extremely price sensitive.

“There is more supply and more headwinds in the market,” with supply pressures varying from neighborhood to neighborhood, said Dolly Lenz, a broker in the luxury market. “Buyers have a whole lot of choices and they are voting with their dollars.”

The median price of a Manhattan apartment rose to nearly $1.1 million, an increase of 13.5% from $965,000 from both the previous quarter and the fourth quarter of 2014, according to an analysis of city Department of Finance data by The Wall Street Journal. The average price also increased to a record of $1.9 million in the fourth quarter from $1.67 million in the third quarter.

For all of 2015, the median price also set a record: $980,000, up 6.5% from $920,000 in 2014. Sales were up slightly too, by 2.1%, but below the sales pace in 2013. There were 12,872 sales in 2015, compared with 12,608 in 2014, based on sales filed with the city through Dec. 21 of each year.

Posted in Economics, Housing Recovery, NYC | 97 Comments

2015 Economic Snapshot

Posted on December 27, 2015 by grim

From the Record:

2015 was the year of the long good-bye, but jobs rebounded

New Jersey’s job market swung from optimism to despair and back in 2015, ending the year on a high note, with the largest annual employment increase in 15 years.

Yet the encouraging performance will have to show continued strength if it is going to dispel the notion that the state’s economy lags the national expansion.

New Jersey added 37,800 jobs in the first five months of the year, only to lose 60 percent of them in June and July. Since then, state employment has grown by about 12,000 jobs a month, bringing the figure to 55,000 through November, the most since the 78,400 jobs created in 2000.

The state’s employment increase, by 1.38 percent, is smaller than the national employment increase of 1.64 percent so far this year. New Jersey’s jobless rate of 5.3 percent remains above the national level of 5 percent. And the state has recovered only about 78 percent of the jobs lost in the recession; the U.S. regained them more than a year ago.

Construction provided the state’s largest proportional employment increase, adding 9,800 jobs for a 7 percent increase in 2015 that reflected the strength in the housing market. The next biggest gains were in education and health services — a reliable growth sector that saw employment rise 2.4 percent — and leisure and hospitality, which expanded by 2.2 percent, shrugging off the weakness of 2014 from the casino meltdown in Atlantic City.

The most striking improvement was in the manufacturing sector, long a declining area, which increased by 1.57 percent, or 3,800 jobs, this year, prompting economists to wonder whether the drop had bottomed out.

That did little to diminish concern at the weakness in the professional and business services group, home to many of the state’s high-paying occupations. The sector shed 900 jobs in 2015.
…
North Jersey’s housing market continued to recover in 2015 from a deep downturn, with multifamily construction and the number of home sales up significantly.

But the pain is not over. Price increases were muted, and the state led the nation in foreclosures.

Home construction in the state has rebounded strongly from the depths of the housing crash, when only about 13,000 housing units were started each year from 2009 to 2011 — the lowest numbers since World War II. In 2015, the state’s builders are on track to start more than 30,000 units — the highest number since 2006, and close to the longtime averages in the 37,000 range.

The growth this year was entirely in multifamily construction, especially along the Hudson River waterfront in Hudson and Bergen counties. Single-family building permits were actually down by 8.2 percent through November, reflecting the high price of land and the fact many households are renting, either by choice or because they can’t qualify for a mortgage.

Still, the number of single-family home sales through November was up 11 percent in Bergen and 14 percent in Passaic County over the same period last year, according to the New Jersey Realtors. Despite the increased demand for homes, prices didn’t budge much, up 2.2 percent in Bergen and 3.5 percent in Passaic.

During the year, New Jersey led the nation in foreclosure activity. Lenders continued to clear up a backlog of distressed properties that built up after the mortgage industry was forced to slow down foreclosures after being accused of abusing the rights of homeowners in trouble.

Posted in Economics, Employment, Housing Recovery, New Jersey Real Estate | 20 Comments

Something’s fishy about the New Home Sales numbers

Posted on December 24, 2015 by grim

Housingwire cites Zerohedge? I like it.

Is there more trouble hidden in November’s new home sales data?

But a deeper dive into the new home sales data shows that November’s increase over October isn’t quite as promising as it appears.

The folks over at Zero Hedge spotted a potentially troubling trend of the new home sales data being continually revised down, making each month’s figures look not nearly as positive as first reported.

For example, the initial estimate for October’s new home sales data was a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 495,000, so the revised data released Wednesday showed a downward revision of 25,000.

With November’s new home sales data printing at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 490,000, November’s new home sales are actually lower than October’s initial total.

But comparing the November’s initial estimate to October’s revised total is not an apples-to-apples comparison, but a further look at the year’s data shows why November’s data could look a whole lot different in about a month when December’s data is released.

As Zero Hedge noted, the last five months have each been revised downward from the initial projections.

September’s initial report showed a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 468,000, but the current data from the Census and HUD shows that the revised total for September is actually 442,000, a decrease of 26,000 over the initial total.

The difference between August’s initially reported totals and the revised figures are even more significant.

When September’s initial report came out, the initial estimates had new home sales collapsing 11.5% from what was then August’s revised total of 529,000. But since then, August’s total has been revised even further.

August’s initial report showed at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 552,000, but the current revised total is 507,000, a decrease of 45,000 from the initial report and a decrease of 22,000 from what was reported in October.

So the actual decrease from August to September was 84,000, not 65,000 as it was initially thought to be.

October, September and August were not the only months where the new home sale data has been revised down.

July’s initial report showed at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 507,000, but the current revised total is 500,000, a decrease of 7,000.

June’s total was revised down from 482,000 to 469,000, a decrease of 13,000.

May’s total was revised down from 546,000 to 513,000, a decrease of 33,000.

And April’s total was revised down from 517,000 to 508,000, a decrease of 9,000.

So, for the last seven months, the average reduction from the initially reported new home sales data is approximately 22,570.

Subtract that average reduction of 22,570 from November’s total of 490,000 and November’s new home sales print at an estimated 467,430, which would represent a decrease of approximately 3,000 from October’s revised total, not an increase as was initially reported.

So, will next month’s report showed that new home sales actually fell in November?

The math certainly seems to show that that is exactly what happened.

Posted in Economics, National Real Estate, Politics | 38 Comments

Did TRID cause the November dip?

Posted on December 23, 2015 by grim

From HousingWire:

The TRID effect is real: Existing-home sales fall sharply in November

First there was anecdotal evidence that the implementation of the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau’s TILA-RESPA Integrated Disclosures rule in October had caused issues with the housing industry, but now, concrete data is beginning to show just how much the impact of TRID is being felt – and the news isn’t great.

Last week, the latest Origination Insight Report by Ellie Mae showed the average time to close a loan increased by 3 days during the month of November to 49 total days, making it the longest time needed to close a loan since Feb. 2013.
…
And according to the latest report from the National Association of Realtors, those closing delays helped considerably slow down existing-home sales in the month of November.

According to NAR’s latest report, the total existing-home sales, which are completed transactions that include single-family homes, townhomes, condominiums and co-ops, fell 10.5% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.76 million in November.

Existing-home sales cooled to the slowest pace in 19 months during November, NAR’s report showed, to the lowest seasonally adjusted annual rate since April 2014 when it was 4.75 million.

This it the second month in a row that existing-home sales have fallen. In October, total existing-home sales decreased 3.4% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.36 million.

After last month’s decline, which NAR said was the largest since July 2010 at 22.5%, existing-home sales are now 3.8% below a year ago, which is the first year-over-year decrease since Sept. 2014.

According to NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun, the decline is not entirely due to TRID, but TRID certainly isn’t helping.
…
NAR’s report also showed extended closing times, which Yun said may be pushing sales out into December, with the hope being that closings are just being delayed, not disappearing entirely.

Posted in Housing Recovery, Mortgages, National Real Estate | 121 Comments

November Existing Home Sales

Posted on December 22, 2015 by grim

From the WSJ:

U.S. Existing Home Sales Plunge in November

Sales of previously owned homes plummeted in November as delays caused by new mortgage red-tape and a dwindling supply of residences on the market pushed down sales to a level not seen since April 2014.

Existing-home sales fell 10.5% last month to a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 4.76 million, the National Association of Realtors said Tuesday, well below the 5.32 million economists expected. The double-digit decline was the sharpest since July 2010, when sales took a hit from the expiration of a home-buyer tax credit.

The NAR blamed the lion’s share of the November decline on closing delays caused by new federal rules implemented by the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau in October, although it said rising home prices and tight inventory continued to challenge potential buyers.

Several realtors said pressure on housing inventories is also driving the sales slump. The number of existing homes for sale fell more than 3% on the month in November and was down nearly 2% on the year.

“I think we’re still seeing a fair amount of tightness in active selling markets,” said Zillow Chief Economist Svenja Gudell, adding first-time buyers trying to enter the market at a lower price point are facing particular scarcity. Housing prices have also climbed faster than wages in many markets, making it more difficult for first-time buyers to save for a down payment.

In November, the national median home price rose to $220,300, the 45th consecutive month of gains year over year, and 6.3% higher than the same month last year.

Despite November’s decline, NAR said home sales are on track for their best year since the current economic expansion began. Economists said the underlying sales rate appears steady, despite the rule changes causing turbulence last month.

Posted in Economics, Housing Recovery, National Real Estate | 44 Comments

Just let Atlantic City fall into the sea

Posted on December 21, 2015 by grim

From the Record:

Legislators advance competing measures to put approval of North Jersey casinos on ballot

State Senate and Assembly committees each passed resolutions on Thursday designed to have voters statewide determine next fall whether to amend the state constitution to allow two casinos to operate in North Jersey.

But the two measures differ on how much tax revenue from the North Jersey casinos should go to support Atlantic City — a discrepancy that could jeopardize efforts to pass the resolution before the end of the lame-duck session next month in Trenton.

The version that the Assembly Judiciary Committee approved Thursday would send 35 percent of tax revenues from the North Jersey casinos to a new state entity that would use those resources to bring more diverse entertainment and leisure options to the struggling, casino-dependent city. The revised measure that emerged from the Senate Budget and Appropriations Committee would send 49 percent of the first $150 million in North Jersey casino tax revenues to Atlantic City, then 40 percent, 30 percent, and 20 percent of each subsequent $150 million that the casinos generate.
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Additionally, the Assembly resolution would allow for one of the two winning casino bids to have no affiliation with a company that operates an Atlantic City casino. But Stephen Sweeney, the state Senate president who represents a South Jersey district, said it was critical that any North Jersey casino operator have an Atlantic City-based partner — a provision of the Senate measure.

“I want the industry in the north part of the state to be tied to Atlantic City,” Sweeney said Thursday, adding that a patron at a casino in the Meadowlands or in Jersey City should be able, for example, to earn a free room or meal at an Atlantic City counterpart.

Sweeney also said of the higher subsidy for Atlantic City in the Senate measure: “I’m not just going to let Atlantic City fall into the sea after it has provided billions and billions of dollars to the state. It would be easy for me to curry favor with my friends in other parts of the state and say, ‘The hell with them.’ But we are not going to let that happen.”

The referendum would ask voters whether to amend the state constitution, which currently restricts casino gambling to Atlantic City, allowing two casinos to be established in separate counties at least 75 miles from the struggling seaside resort city. Neither version of the resolution spells out where the casinos would be built, but all locations would have to be north of Monmouth and Mercer counties. The most likely locations appear to be the Meadowlands and Jersey City.
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Assemblyman Ralph Caputo, D-Essex, who sponsored the Assembly resolution, has said that the Senate version, with its more generous Atlantic City subsidy, is more likely to be rejected by taxpayers who are aware of the city’s longstanding budget woes and recurring corruption scandals there over the years.

Posted in New Development, North Jersey Real Estate, Politics | 78 Comments

Atlantic City in the Top 10 … worst performing markets

Posted on December 19, 2015 by grim

From HousingWire:

These are the top and bottom 10 housing markets right now

As the year comes to a close, Pro Teck Valuation Services’ latest home value forecast of the top 10 best and 10 worst performing metros ended the year on the same note, fluctuating little over the year.
…
The rankings are based on a number of leading real estate market indicators, including: Sales/listing activity and prices, months of remaining inventory, days on market, sold-to-list price ratio and foreclosure and REO activity.

Pro Teck measures Core Based Statistical Areas which consist of the county or counties with a substantial population, along with adjacent commuter communities. It refers collectively to metropolitan statistical areas and micropolitan statistical areas.
…
This month’s Bottom 10 CBSAs include:

Fort Lauderdale-Pompano Beach-Deerfield Beach, Florida
Huntington-Ashland, West Virginia-Kentucky-Ohio
Joplin, Missouri
Lake County-Kenosha County, Illinois-Wisconsin
Lake Havasu City-Kingman, Arizona
McAllen-Edinburg-Mission, Texas
Milwaukee-Waukesha-West Allis, Wisconsin
Midland, Texas
Atlantic City-Hammonton, New Jersey
Jacksonville, North Carolina.

Posted in Demographics, Economics, Employment, Housing Recovery, Shore Real Estate | 39 Comments

Not the lenders responsibility, except in NJ…

Posted on December 18, 2015 by grim

Again, NJ legislators lack awareness of their own unintended consequences. From the Star Ledger:

3-year foreclosure ban for Sandy victims headed to Christie’s desk

A bill aimed at keeping thousands of Hurricane Sandy victims from entering into foreclosure for three years passed both houses of the state Legislature on Thursday.

The bill (S2577) would prevent lenders from foreclosing on homeowners waiting for funds through rebuilding grant programs run by the state.

It would also allow homeowners waiting for grant money to qualify for a three-year forbearance period, during which time they would not have to make mortgage payments.

State Assemblyman Gary Schaer (D-Passaic), one of the bill’s sponsors, said state “has not adequately or appropriately addressed the needs” of Sandy victims.
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But a representative from the New Jersey Bankers Association told lawmakers at a hearing on the bill earlier this year that lenders “are getting forced to carry the burden the government has failed to do themselves.”

Posted in Foreclosures, Mortgages, Politics, Shore Real Estate | 81 Comments

Fannie: 3 more rate hikes next year, little impact to mortgage rates

Posted on December 17, 2015 by grim

From HousingWire:

Fannie Mae: Expect 3 more Fed rate hikes in 2016

December 16, 2015, will forever be known as the day that the Federal Open Market Committee increased the federal funds rate for the first time since June 2006, but one housing industry insider expects that this rate hike won’t be the last one — far from it, in fact.

In a note published shortly after the Federal Reserve’s announcement, Doug Duncan, Fannie Mae’s chief economist, said that Wednesday’s announcement is just the first step in a longer journey for the Fed and that he expects to see several more rate hikes in 2016.

“This is one small step on an overdue journey for the Fed,” Duncan said.
…
Duncan said that Fannie Mae now expects three more hikes in the federal funds target in the next year.

Duncan also said that Fannie Mae expects the 30-year fixed mortgage rate to rise from 3.9% in the fourth quarter of this year to 4.1% by this time next year.

Posted in Economics, Housing Recovery, Mortgages | 82 Comments

Fewer underwater borrowers, NY Metro among the highest positive equity

Posted on December 16, 2015 by grim

From CoreLogic:

CoreLogic Reports 256,000 US Properties Regained Equity in the Third Quarter of 2015

CoreLogic … today released a new analysis showing 256,000 properties regained equity in the third quarter of 2015, bringing the total number of mortgaged residential properties with equity at the end of Q3 2015 to approximately 46.3 million, or 92.0 percent of all homes with an outstanding mortgage. Nationwide, borrower equity increased year over year by $741 billion in Q3 2015.

The total number of mortgaged residential properties with negative equity stood at 4.1 million, or 8.1 percent, in Q3 2015. That was down 4.7 percent quarter over quarter from 4.3 million homes, or 8.7 percent, compared with Q2 2015* and down 20.7 percent year over year from 5.2 million homes, or 10.4 percent, compared with Q3 2014.

For the homes in negative equity status, the national aggregate value of negative equity was $301 billion at the end of Q3 2015, declining approximately $8.1 billion from $309.1 billion in Q2 2015, a decrease of 2.6 percent. On a year-over-year basis, the value of negative equity declined overall from $341 billion in Q3 2014, representing a decrease of 11.8 percent in 12 months.
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“Home price growth continued to lift borrower equity positions and increase the number of borrowers with sufficient equity to participate in the mortgage market,” said Frank Nothaft, chief economist for CoreLogic. “In Q3 2015 there were 37.5 million borrowers with at least 20 percent equity, up 7 percent from 35 million in Q3 2014. In the last three years, borrowers with at least 20 percent equity have increased by 11 million, a substantial uptick that is driving rapid growth in home equity originations.”
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Highlights

Of the 10 largest metropolitan areas based on mortgage count, Phoenix-Mesa-Scottsdale, Ariz. had the highest percentage of mortgaged residential properties in negative equity at 14.2 percent, followed by Chicago-Naperville-Arlington Heights, Ill. (13.8 percent), Riverside- San Bernardino-Ontario, Calif. (11.4 percent), Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-Va.- Md.-W.Va. (10.8 percent) and Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Roswell, Ga. (9.7 percent).

Of the same 10 metropolitan areas, Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, Texas had the highest percentage of mortgaged residential properties with positive equity at 98.2 percent, followed by Dallas-Plano-Irving, Texas (97.9 percent), Los Angeles-Long Beach-Glendale, Calif. (95.4 percent), Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, Minn.-Wis. (94.4 percent) and New York-Jersey City-White Plains, N.Y.-N.J. (94.3 percent).

Posted in Demographics, Economics, Housing Recovery, National Real Estate, New Jersey Real Estate | 134 Comments

Don’t blame millennials for rental prices, blame the boomers.

Posted on December 15, 2015 by grim

Best headline in a long while, from US News:

Old People, Not Millennials, Are Taking All the Apartments

Though millennials often get a bad rap for clinging to rental housing and stubbornly refusing to jump into homeownership, a study released Wednesday by Harvard University’s Joint Center for Housing Studies suggests more than half of renters are actually in their 40s or older.

The study – which extensively details the rental and homeownership trends that have played out in America over more than a decade – challenges the notion that young people are mostly to blame for staggeringly high rental occupancy and historically low homeownership rates across the country. It also casts doubt on whether the housing market has truly recovered from its collapse in the mid-2000s, with so many atypical renters staying away from traditional homeownership.

“In mid-2015, 43 million families and individuals lived in rental housing, up nearly 9 million from 2005 – the largest gain in any 10-year period on record,” the report said. “While households in their 20s make up the single largest share [of renters], households aged 40 and over now account for a majority of all renters.”

Those younger than 30 account for nearly 26 percent of America’s rental market, according to the study. That’s far larger than any other age demographic’s share. But the number of households rented to people younger than 30 has only expanded by about 1 million units over the last 10 years.

For comparison’s sake, the number of units rented to people in their 50s ballooned by more than 2.3 million over the same window, while those occupied by people in their 60s climbed by more than 2 million. Those older than 50 years old accounted for 55 percent of the growth in America’s rental population between 2005 and 2015, compared with those under 30, who accounted for just 11 percent of the gains.

“This growth reflects the aging baby boomer renters (born 1946-1964), as well as declines in homeownership rates among this generation,” the report said. “While the conventional image of renters is groups of young, unrelated adults living together, these types of non-family households make up a relatively small share of all renters, and their numbers have grown only modestly in the past 10 years.”

Overall, the more than 22 million units rented to people at least 40 years of age now account for 51 percent of the country’s rental market, according to the study. Back in 1995, that share was less than 43 percent.

And that demographic shift is taking a bite out of the housing market. The seasonally adjusted national homeownership rate in July, August and September sat at just 63.5 percent, which tied the second quarter of this year for the lowest rate on record dating back to 1980, according to the Census Bureau. Rental vacancy rates, meanwhile, are now “at their lowest point since 1985,” according to the Harvard study.

Posted in Demographics, Economics, Housing Recovery, National Real Estate | 82 Comments

Of course the short-sale tax forgiveness will pass…

Posted on December 14, 2015 by grim

From the WSJ:

Tax Break for Home Short Sellers at Risk

Last-minute negotiations in Washington have left real-estate agents and sellers nervous about the possibility that distressed homeowners could receive an unwelcome tax hit.

Congress has yet to reach an agreement to extend a tax break that forgives taxes on owners who sell their home for less the remaining mortgage balance in what is known as a short sale. The provision, which was passed in 2007 under President George W. Bush, would forgive an estimated $5.1 billion of taxes for homeowners who have been battered by the foreclosure crisis if it is extended for two years.

Otherwise distressed owners would have to pay taxes on the difference between what they owe on the mortgage and the amount raised in the short sale. They also would have to pay taxes on the difference if the lender agrees to reduce the principal amount that the borrower owes.

For example, if someone sells their home for $250,000 and owes $300,000 on their mortgage, they would owe taxes on $50,000—roughly equal to the country’s median household income.

Technically, the tax break expired at the end of 2014, leaving homeowners in limbo for 2015. Although it is widely expected to pass, if it weren’t renewed, homeowners who received some relief this year could now take a hit when they file their taxes next year.

“Particularly as the job market has improved since the recession, lenders are trying to work with borrowers who are distressed to keep them in their homes. Borrowers need the certainty that they will not be faced with a large, unexpected tax bill,” said Bill Killmer, senior vice president for legislative and political affairs at the Mortgage Bankers Association.
…
Although eight years have passed since the housing crisis began, some 13.4% of homeowners remain underwater, meaning they owe more than their homes are worth, according to Zillow, a real-estate information company.

Posted in Foreclosures, National Real Estate, Politics | 59 Comments

Mounties, Hockey, Maple Syrup, Housing Bubble, eh?

Posted on December 13, 2015 by grim

Can the Canucks engineer a soft landing? Probably not. From Reuters:

Tighter Canada mortgage rules could boost condos, hurt consumers

Dec 11 Canada’s move to tighten mortgage rules and raise some fees on lenders will likely make it more expensive for consumers to borrow, but could boost one of the most vulnerable segments of the market – Toronto’s big supply of condominiums.

Realtors, mortgage brokers and economists said the move to raise the minimum down payment on expensive properties and boost fees for mortgage insurance may have little impact on Canada’s housing market as a whole, but puts cash-strapped consumers in Toronto and Vancouver in the cross-hairs.

The new measures will require buyers who need government-insured mortgages to make down payments of up to 7.5 percent on homes worth C$500,000 ($365,000) to C$1 million, up from the current 5 percent – a price point that targets entry-level homes in Canada’s two largest housing markets.

“Cash-poor buyers will be funneled into less expensive properties which, in Toronto, means the more affordable condominium market,” said Toronto real estate agent Steve Fudge.

“This isn’t necessarily a bad thing, as it creates a larger pool of buyers to support the exponentially larger supply of condominiums in Toronto. In fact … it may help mitigate the potential oversupply of condominiums we collectively fear may be happening,” said Fudge.

But while condos in Vancouver and Toronto may become increasingly the default option for the lower end of the housing market, the higher costs are expected to push some would-be buyers out of the market altogether, economists said.
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In addition to the higher minimum down payment, the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp, a federal agency that provides insurance on mortgages, said Friday it is raising fees it charges banks and other lenders to provide guarantees under the government’s mortgage-securitization program.

“Lenders, when they incur higher costs, they typically pass them on to consumers because it’s a very tight margin business these days,” said Robert McLister, mortgage expert and founder of RateSpy.com.

Posted in Economics, Housing Bubble | 11 Comments

Trenton and AC lead national foreclosures

Posted on December 11, 2015 by grim

From Reuters:

Two New Jersey cities top November U.S. metro foreclosure rates

Two New Jersey metropolitan areas, Atlantic City and Trenton, had the highest U.S. metro foreclosure rates in November, RealtyTrac data showed on Thursday.

It was the fifth straight month for Atlantic City and the surrounding area as U.S. poster child for foreclosures. One in every 307 homes in or near Atlantic City had a foreclosure filing in November, compared to one in 1,268 nationally.

It held that position even as its rate dropped by 16 percent from the previous month and nearly 6 percent from November 2014.

In Trenton, the state capital, foreclosure activity in November rose 32 percent from a year ago and posted the second highest national rate at one in every 346 housing units.

New Jersey itself had the second highest foreclosure rate among all U.S. states in November, behind Maryland. Florida, Nevada and Illinois rounded out the top five states.

Overall national foreclosure activity was down 10 percent in November from the previous month and 7 percent lower than the same month last year.

The monthly drop was caused mostly by a 10-year low in foreclosure starts, with just 41,208 properties starting the process for the first time in November.

“Banks are continuing to work through the backlog of lingering foreclosures, pushing bank repossession numbers higher in the short term even as foreclosure starts drop to new lows,” RealtyTrac Vice President Daren Blomquist said in a statement.

Posted in Foreclosures, New Jersey Real Estate, Risky Lending | 106 Comments

Recovery by next year?

Posted on December 10, 2015 by grim

From HousingWire:

TransUnion: Mortgage market will completely recover next year

The long, steady recovery from the housing crisis and the recession that followed is nearly over, with the consumer lending market, including mortgages, expected to recover completely in 2016, according to a new report from Transunion.

Transunion published its 2016 forecast for the mortgage market this week, and the report states that the mortgage market will return to its pre-crisis state by the end of 2016.

According to Transunion’s analysis, the national mortgage loan serious delinquency rate, which is the ratio of borrowers 60 or more days past due, will decline from 2.5% at the end of 2015 to 2.06% at the conclusion of 2016.

Consumer level mortgage delinquency rates peaked at 6.94% during the first quarter of 2010 and have been declining nearly every quarter since, Transunion’s report showed.
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And the delinquency rate is expected to drop to 2.5% by the end of this year.

Transunion’s 2016 projection is that the year-end delinquency rate will sit at 2.06%, much more in line with the pre-crisis delinquency rate.

“We have observed that a ‘normal’ delinquency rate falls between 1.5% and 2% in the past, and our forecast puts the nation back at this level,” said Steve Chaouki, executive vice president and head of TransUnion’s financial services business unit.

“Newer vintage mortgage loans have been performing at this level for the last few years, but a combination of factors such as the funneling of bad mortgage loans through the foreclosure process, an improvement in the employment picture and an uptick in housing prices were needed to get back to normal,” Chaounki continued.
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Transunion’s forecast also projects continued growth in the average mortgage debt per borrower, which has slowly gained in recent years, due in part to a rebound in housing prices.

Debt levels are expected to experience a $9,000+ gain by the end of next year from the year-end low observed in 2012, Transunion’s report shows.

Posted in Foreclosures, Housing Recovery, Mortgages, National Real Estate | 142 Comments