The National Association of Homebuilders (NAHB) & Wells Fargo released the third quarter affordability statistics yesterday. Northern NJ made the top 10, specifically the New York-White Plains-Wayne MSA (Includes Bergen, Hudson, and Passaic Counties).
NAHB Third Quarter Affordability
California once again dominated the HOI rankings for the least affordable major metropolitan areas. Right behind Los Angeles on this list was Santa Ana-Anaheim-Irvine, Calif., followed by San Diego-Carlsbad-San Marcos, Calif. and Stockton. The metro of New York-White Plains-Wayne, N.Y.-N.J. was the only non-California entry on the list of the five least affordable major housing markets.
1) Los Angeles-Long Beach-Glendale, CA
2) Merced, CA
3) Salinas, CA
4) Santa Ana-Anaheim-Irvine, CA
5) Santa Barbara-Santa Maria, CA
6) Modesto, CA
7) Santa Cruz-Watsonville, CA
8) San Diego-Carlsbad-San Marcos, CA
9) Stockton, CA
10) New York-White Plains-Wayne, NY-NJ
—
31) Newark-Union, NJ-PA
41) Edison, NJ
50) Atlantic City, NJ
For more information on the areas that make up these MSA’s, please see: MSA Components (Warning, XLS File)
We’re even less affordable if we look at our area in comparison with other metro areas (population > 500k):
1) Los Angeles-Long Beach-Glendale, CA
2) Santa Ana-Anaheim-Irvine, CA
3) San Diego-Carlsbad-San Marcos, CA
4) Stockton, CA
5) New York-White Plains-Wayne, NY-NJ
Affordability by Metro (Warning XLS)
Caveat Emptor!
Grim
I wonder what the traditional affordability ratio is for these areas relative to the rest of the country. one would think that the least affordable markets would tend to fall the hardest, but maybe not if these areas have always been so proportionally unaffordable.
Skep-tic
Northern NJ real estate has always been somewhat less affordable than the country as a whole (about 45% affordability), but nothing this bad (now at 6.7%).
The file Grim posed has historic data back to 1991. I would expect that NJ will still be priced at a premium compared to the rest of the country, but given our run up, we have the potential to fall hard.
Watch out for the trick spin and manipulation. I have seen several houses listed but with NO sign in front.
What a bunch of sheisters.
so according to the trad affordability ratio, N. NJ house prices should come down about 35%?
Actually, I stand corrected. The file that Grim posted did not contain the historic data. This file contains affordability back to 1991
http://tinyurl.com/ahg4b
New York-White Plains-Wayne, NY-NJ
Between 1991 – 1999 Average affordability 46.5%
3rd Qrt 2005 6.7%
85% Less Affordable in 2005 as opposed to the 1990’s average
Newark-Union, NJ-PA
Between 1991 – 1999 Average affordability 56.4%
3rd Qrt 2005 23.6%
58% Less Affordable in 2005 as opposed to the 1990’s average
Also, I am willing to bet that when you add property taxes and heating costs, we are porbably higher on the list than owr affordability score indicates.
This post has been removed by the author.
Wow! If unaffordability implies desirability (i.e., the place is SO nice that people are willing to spend anything to live there), then Stockton is more desirable than NJ! That makes no freakin’ sense at all. None.
I think “inertia” has more to do with it than desirability. It takes a lot for people to get up and leave their families, jobs, friends, pull their kids out of school and leave the neighborhoods they grew up in etc. For these reasons, people will pay a premium to stay put. I know many people who just don’t see a world beyond Northern NJ.
good point re: property taxes. Cali has extremely low property taxes. when added in, I bet NY/NJ affordability is about as low as anywhere in the country