From the Asbury Park Press:
Exodus from New Jersey continues, mover’s data show
Top destinations for people moving out of New Jersey (in number of interstate moves handled by United Van Lines): California, 844; Florida, 628; and North Carolina, 429.
Top origins for people moving to New Jersey (in number of interstate moves handled by United Van Lines): California, 473; Florida, 395; and Texas, 268.
New Jersey continued to be a good place to leave last year, according to an annual migration study released Monday by United Van Lines.
The review of United Van Lines’ interstate moving business showed that 60.9 percent of the company’s 10,259 interstate moves involving New Jersey were outgoing. In every year since 1997, the company has had more moves out of New Jersey than into it.
Nationally, New Jersey had the third-highest percentage of outgoing moves, trailing Michigan and North Dakota, both at 66 percent. Generally, the study found people leaving the central northeast region for southern and western states.
Top gainer states included North Carolina, Oregon and South Carolina.
Though unscientific, the results, which represent about one-third of the 650,000 interstate moves in 2006, buoys Census Bureau figures released in December, in which New Jersey was bucked from the top 10 most populous states, overtaken by North Carolina.
“That’s not a big surprise,” Sen. Anthony Bucco, R-Morris, said of the moving company’s study. “We saw over 60,000 leave last year, and if that trend continues we’re going to lose a congressional seat.”
James W. Hughes, a Rutgers University economist, said New Jersey continues to lose people because despite having incomes that average 33 percent higher than the nation as a whole, the state also has 52 percent higher housing costs.
The United Van Lines study can be found here:
Americans Head West, Southeast; Say ‘Goodbye’ to Central Northeast Region
As you remember Jim. The map I made from the IRS migration data also showed much of the migration to also be in the NE Corridor as well.
However that was data from 3 years ago, I would love to see the 2005 numbers.
As for the High Inbound states, S, Dakota?
Maybe it is all those N. Dakotan looking for a warmer winter.
Oil tumbles on warm weather, fund worries
Traders are wary about hedge fund natural gas-fueled losses…
http://money.cnn.com/2007/01/09/markets/bc.markets.oil.update.reut/index.htm?postversion=2007010906
After last year’s $6.4 billion, natural gas-fueled losses at hedge fund Amaranth Advisors LLC, oil traders are also on edge for further meltdowns in the industry, although no single fund has yet been identified as in trouble.
From MarketWatch:
D.R. Horton 1Q net sales orders fall $900 mln
D.R. Horton Inc. on Tuesday said first-quarter net sales orders fell $900 million to $2.3 billion from $3.2 billion in the year-ago period. First-quarter cancellation rate fell to 33% from 40% in the year-ago period. The Fort Worth, Texas company said selling conditions “remain challenging” with higher-than-normal cancellation rates and an increased use of sales incentives in many markets.
Here is the DHI press release:
D.R. Horton, Inc., America’s Builder, Reports Net Sales Orders for the First Quarter of Fiscal 2007
D.R. Horton, Inc., America’s Builder, the largest homebuilder in the United States, Tuesday (January 9, 2007), reported net sales orders for the first quarter ended December 31, 2006 of 8,771 homes ($2.3 billion), compared to 11,463 homes ($3.2 billion) for the same quarter of fiscal 2006. The Company’s cancellation rate (sales orders cancelled divided by gross sales orders) for the first quarter of fiscal 2007 was 33%, compared to 40% in the fourth quarter of fiscal 2006.
As you remember Jim. The map I made from the IRS migration data also showed much of the migration to also be in the NE Corridor as well.
However that was data from 3 years ago, I would love to see the 2005 numbers.
Agree, I’d love to see the 2006 numbers as well, but we’re going to be waiting a while for those.
jb
Sen. Anthony Bucco, said “…if that trend continues we’re going to lose a congressional seat.”
>>
I find this funny. At least politicians are worried, although for a different reason.
It’s worth noting that Banc of America analysts expected D.R. Horton orders to fall only 18% in the first quarter.
Builders search for a bottom
Banc of America Securities has predicted that orders fell 18% in the first quarter, but less than the 25% decline in the last quarter of 2006, due to more attractive pricing and easier year-over-year comparisons.
Buyers just saying NO MAAS to bloated NNJ home prices. It’s a good start to get things back to sane. NO bargains here, but 25-30% price reductions on houses could help alittle.
BOOOOOOOOOOOOYAAAAAAAAAAAA
Bob
300-400-$500 a sq ft for pos shacks. NOT. Maybe some trophy property but not the junk being peddled for these fantasy prices.
let’em sit and rot. send’em a strong message you ain’t going to be taken like the bagholders of 2004-2005.
BLEED’EM DRY!
Maybe this migration will include some of the LOD. The thought of somebody with a thick Jersey accent trying to navigate the checkout line at Winn-Dixie in, say, Rock Hill, SC is the stuff of movies (like My Cousin Vinnie). All those WIC coupons and food stamps slow things down…a lot!
If you’re thinking of moving down there, start practicing for your new life by gorging on pork rinds, drinking Pepsi for breakfast (in NC, they drink a cherry-flavored bile called “Cheerwine”), watching NASCAR, listening to Toby Keith CDs and cow-tipping.
I can’t speak or NC or SC, but I had a great time down in San Antonio earlier this year.
Our best friends moved out there a little over a year ago and we’d been meaning to go down to visit. Jayne was going down to San Anton’ for a veterinary conference, so the time was as good as any (nothing like expensing a vacation as business). She flew down early for the conference, and I flew down mid-week.
She was there for a total of about 9 or 10 days, I was there 5. I didn’t think it was all that bad. Most everything there is brand new, stores, shopping center, housing developments, highways, etc. I don’t think I met an actual Texan while I was there. Lots of NY/NJ/CT ex-pats, but at least an equal number of FL/NC/CA/AZ as well.
They live in an upscale development, although their 4br 4k sq/ft McMansion cost significantly less than half the price of a run down North Jersey cape. I’m sure someone will chime in about salary. How much do you really need to make when you can put down 50% of the cost of a house?
Spent alot of time driving around, taking in the sights, hanging out downtown and on the riverwalk.
I expected cowboy hats, boots, and lots of southern drawl. None of that. In fact, within two or three days I actually considered moving down there.
No pork rinds, no cherry wine. But I got to admit, the ribs were great.
jb
Clotpoll, the banal stereotypes are revealing.
United’s #’s are misleading. This does not reflect the mass migration into NJ over the last 4-5 years. What about all those FEMA [find every mexican available] trucks coming in???
Clot,
I don’t know about SC, but NC is nothing like that. At least not the part I’m familiar with and would move to, if I did. The Raleigh-Cary area. It’s nice out there. I’d move if I didn’t have a good job right here.
BW has good article,
How Bad Will the 2007 Property Market Be?
http://www.businessweek.com/bwdaily/dnflash/content/dec2006/db20061211_510835.htm
“The market was in a frenzy in 2005,” says Lawrence Yun, senior economist at the National Association of Realtors (NAR). “The current transition is just cleansing away the speculators.” Yun expects existing home sales to slip just 0.6% in 2007, with a pickup in the fourth quarter continuing into 2008
Home price trends tend to lag 9 to 12 months behind sales trends, according to Stiff, who predicts prices will be weakest in 2008 and rebound in 2009.
On the topic of NC:
I was down there few months ago for Business in RTP area. When you just fly into Raleigh airport, you can see big houses, large lots, lot of new construction etc… Its easy to see you can definitely afford a lot more there.
But the only bad part was everything seemed far away and moving slowly. The restaurants seemed to have not much choices and service was slower. Nothing agaist it, just I am used to little faster pace at my current age. I may like it once I am in 50+ age group.
Profucius (12)-
I grew up in the South (Memphis), attended school at U of NC and lived near Rock Hill, SC for a few months. I know whereof I speak.
And don’t tell me it’s “different” now. The “Yankees” and old-timers don’t mix in many of these new-to-develop areas. It’s hard to understand (until you encounter it) that many Southerners over the age of 50 are still mentally and emotionally fighting the Civil War. When was the last time you heard a NJ resident refer to incoming Southerners as “Rebels”?
Syncmaster (14)-
Copy you on that. The Triangle (Raleigh-Durham-Chapel Hill) is nothing like the rest of NC…or the rest of the South, for that matter. One of the best places to live in the US, period.
I had a very similar experience visiting North Carolina. Given my somewhat jaded North Jersey view of the world, I was expecting lots of chewin’ tobacco and trailer homes, at least once outside of Cary.
I visited Cary and much of the surrounding area. Everything was new, homes, shopping etc., and seemed to be well planned. For example, when they build roads there, it is based on future projected population, not reacting to a traffic crisis after the fact.
Almost everyone I met was from the NY metro area. While it’s almost all people from up here, they tend to be much nicer down there with much less tension and stress.
For between $275 – $325 you can buy a brand new 3,000 sq. ft. home customized to your tastes. However, even if you buy an existing home, it will only be a few years old and probably in very good condition.
If you spend a lot of time in NYC and eating at good restaurants, you will miss that. However, if you don’t go to the city that often and don’t eat in the high end restaurants, then is it really worth paying a premium to live closer to NYC?
Two words.
Waffle House
Comparing the migration map above to where Waffle House has most of their ummm… houses. Very wise of them to avoid the Northeast.
Ok, maybe not such a great correlation, but I sure can go for a waffle right about now.
biscuits and sausage gravy
i spent time in san antonio. jim your portrait of the place is not holistic. it’s texas and as such you get all that texas and texans entail. things are slower, less industry, more open spaces, gets real hot there. it doesn’t have even 1/4 the energy of this area. still it is a clean albeit small city and the people are a tad nicer than their texas big city counterparts (dallas, houston).
sweet tea
From MarketWatch:
Meritage says home orders plunge, estimates charges
Meritage Homes Corp. Tuesday said quarterly net sales orders fell 42% to 1,201 homes from a fourth-quarter record of 2,072 in the year-ago period. As a percentage of quarterly gross sales orders, cancellations rose to a record 48%, the residential builder said. Meritage estimated pre-tax land and inventory charges of $55 million to $65 million, which would reduce quarterly earnings by $1.25 to $1.50 a share, although the company expects to deliver a fourth-quarter profit.
Also from Marketwatch:
Meritage Homes year-end backlog $1.2B vs $2.2B
Meritage Homes Q4 sales cancellations 48% vs 32%
Meritage Homes Q4 home sales $356M vs $723M
Meritage Homes Q4 home deliveries $821M vs $1.04B
Meritage Homes expects Q4 charges at $1.25-$1.50/shr
Richard,
Did you spend any time in the Dominion?
jb
More executions than an Islamic republic.
NC = highest consumption per capita of grits in US.
My great aunt was close friends with the family that owned Cheerwine. Good cherry phosphate soda.
BTW, I love grits with poached egg. Grandmother, from the south, used to make them for me.
JM
You mean, polenta?
Via Matrix, I see that Flipper Nation has now come out with episode three.
Rich
More executions than an Islamic republic.
How does that compare to the Newark murder rate? From what I can tell, we’re doing pretty well this year, 5 murders in the first seven days of the year.
jb
Newark’s got nothing on Memphis in that category.
I thought, at least historically, that Newark generally outranked Memphis when it came to murder rate.
jb
Grim (31)-
Nope. Memphis 13th most dangerous in US, Newark 22nd, according to Morgan-Quitno survey:
http://www.morganquitno.com/cit07pop.htm#25
This one is from clarkhoward.com (radio talk show host in da south):
Crooked bankers target Habitat owners
Getting a mortgage these days can be tricky, and it’s easy to get taken at the closing table. But Clark saw a story about predatory lenders recently that infuriated him. It was the lead story in Business Week and it focused on Habitat for Humanity owners who got ripped off by dirty banks. According to Business Week, these banks are tracking down Habitat homeowners and sending salespeople out to their homes to sell them a new mortgage. The salespeople tell the homeowners that their homes have gone up in value and offer them $10,000 to $15,000 in cash in exchange for a new loan with the bank. Habitat homeowners have loans through Habitat at zero percent, so this is a huge mistake. The banks are putting them in loans of 16 to 20 percent, which these homeowners cannot afford. So, the families end up having to foreclose and losing their homes. It’s a disgrace and Clark wants to know why the Mortgage Bankers Association of America doesn’t get involved. This is theft! When doing a loan, look for lenders that don’t charge any closing costs at all or offer “guaranteed” closing costs. The mortgage business is still the wild west, so be careful.
Oh, I thought we were talking murder rate..
Camden 7th, Trenton 12th, Newark 14th, Memphis 34th, according to the same source.
http://www.morganquitno.com/cit05r.pdf
Clot,
I understand now. So all of NC (except the Triangle of course) is a cow pasture full of cheerwine imbibing, Nascar-luvin’, Toby Keith listenin’, pork rind eaters who are all impoverished winn-dixie shoppers. I think you forgot the boiled peanuts from your list.
My bad. Not paying attention.
Not that either thing is an “award” worth winning. I will, however, put carjackers in Memphis up against any in the world…the way they do it is an art form.
http://money.cnn.com/2007/01/04/magazines/moneymag/makeover_riveras.moneymag/index.htm
CNN folks: This kind of story is a heart-warming American tale, but how about including in every one of these a crumb of advice for the 90 percent of Americans who don’t have a pot to piss in? Try to help out the folks who need it here, not only the ones that can put investment managment fees in the pockets of your advertisers. Get yourself some good karma. Sneak it in if you have to, O.K.? They’ll never notice.
http://finance.yahoo.com/columnist/article/moneyhappy/2643
http://newstandardnews.net/content/index.cfm/items/3715
Oops, comment awaiting.
Profucius (35)-
Thanks for catching my omission.
And, boiled peanuts.
Jeez…just trying to inject a little humor. Are you a Toby Keith or NASCAR fan?
http://money.cnn.com/2007/01/04/magazines/moneymag/makeover_riveras.moneymag/index.htm
CNN folks: This kind of story is a heart-warming American tale, but how about including in every one of these a crumb of advice for the 90 percent of Americans who don’t have a pot to piss in? Try to help out the folks who need it here, not only the ones that can put investment managment fees in the pockets of your advertisers. Get yourself some good karma. Sneak it in if you have to, O.K.? They’ll never notice.
Not that either thing is an “award” worth winning. I will, however, put carjackers in Memphis up against any in the world.
I think Jersey City takes top honors in that catagory. At least they did a few years ago.
How do Realtors of NJ compare with other states?
Any awards to be ‘won’ in this category?
As one who came to NJ from So. California (job reasons), I am surprised that so many flee NJ for California. If you were really concenrned with high housing prices and taxes, why would you go to California which is even worse than NJ? It is also more crowded if you choose to live anywhere within 25 miles of the coast (the only place worth living in California in my opinion). I guess it’s worthwhile for most to pay through as long as the sun shines everyday.
Not that either thing is an “award” worth winning. I will, however, put carjackers in Memphis up against any in the world…
While not carjacking by any means, had I left for lunch 5 minutes earlier one beautiful fall day 3 years ago, I would have been in a similar position. I would have walked out of my office to find two thieves using a second car to push-start my own. I really don’t know what I would have done in that situation, would I have run out to try to stop them? Would I have exercised restraint and stood down? I would have had ample time to react, they used the same push-car to steal an Audi S4 at the same time. A co-worker saw both cars leave the complex together, he mentioned that he thought I had left early.
It’s probably better that I didn’t walk out early, who knows what might have happened. I’m sure I wouldn’t have just stood by idle (I’m 6’3, 200 lbs).
I’m in a relatively nice office complex on the border of Clifton/Montclair/Bloomfield, not exactly an area known for high crime rates. In fact, not two blocks Northeast of here, surrounding Brookdale Park in Montclair, the average home prices are pushing near 7 digits (I walk past the home of Steven Colbert of Colbert Report fame home every once in a while on lunch break).
Anyhow, my car was used to commit a number of crimes in Newark and Irvington. Driver and passenger lost control of my car during a high-speed chase and crashed it into a school. From what I was told, the resulting fireball was impressive.
I never did find out what happened to the S4, but I was invited to a wake for my car. It was the third car up in a stack of five in an impound lot off McCarter Highway in Newark. I nearly cried, there wasn’t much left.
jb
From today’s Wall Street Journal:
Fed’s No. 2 Chills Hopes
For a Rate Cut
Inflation Remains
A Primary Concern,
Kohn Says in Speech
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB116830349477870816.html?mod=home_whats_news_us
Grim,
I’ve never been sure what the rules are in terms of doing cut & paste on copyrighted material.
Is it OK to post segments, but not the entire article, if it’s something like the WSJ, which requires a subscription?
U.S. Copyright Office – Fair Use
One of the rights accorded to the owner of copyright is the right to reproduce or to authorize others to reproduce the work in copies or phonorecords. This right is subject to certain limitations found in sections 107 through 118 of the Copyright Act (title 17, U. S. Code). One of the more important limitations is the doctrine of “fair use.” Although fair use was not mentioned in the previous copyright law, the doctrine has developed through a substantial number of court decisions over the years. This doctrine has been codified in section 107 of the copyright law.
Section 107 contains a list of the various purposes for which the reproduction of a particular work may be considered “fair,” such as criticism, comment, news reporting, teaching, scholarship, and research. Section 107 also sets out four factors to be considered in determining whether or not a particular use is fair:
the purpose and character of the use, including whether such use is of commercial nature or is for nonprofit educational purposes;
the nature of the copyrighted work;
amount and substantiality of the portion used in relation to the copyrighted work as a whole; and
the effect of the use upon the potential market for or value of the copyrighted work.
The distinction between “fair use” and infringement may be unclear and not easily defined. There is no specific number of words, lines, or notes that may safely be taken without permission. Acknowledging the source of the copyrighted material does not substitute for obtaining permission.
Waffle House rules.
Double order of “Original” waffles, scrambled eggs, side of ham, toast, OJ, and coffee.
This FSBO was at $650K 6 months ago:
http://newjersey.craigslist.org/rfs/259613870.html
Now down to $569K.
From Bloomberg:
Mills Says Accounting Errors Caused by Misconduct
Mills Corp., the owner of 38 U.S. shopping malls, said an internal investigation found accounting errors were caused by misconduct by executives. The errors will cost as much as $352 million and may force the company into bankruptcy. The shares slid 7.4 percent, the most since August.
Mills will restate results for 2001 to 2004 and for the first three quarters of 2005. The company only has enough cash to meet its financial obligations through March 31, Chevy Chase, Maryland-based Mills said in a regulatory filing today.
The company lost more than half of its market value in the past year as its 104-acre Xanadu project in New Jersey’s Meadowlands went over budget and it delayed earnings amid a Securities and Exchange Commission investigation. Chief Executive Officer Laurence Siegel stepped down in September after 11 years at the company and was replaced by Mark Ordan.
…
The company sold malls in Canada, Scotland and Spain for $981 million to reduce debt. It sold its stake in Xanadu, its biggest project ever, to Colony Capital Acquisitions LLC, a closely held, Los Angeles-based real estate developer.
“Marjorie Dresner a Canadian native (Eh?) believed that Naples[Fla.] would long be an attractive market.
A prolific investor, she purchased dozens of houses in recent years….”
“In late October, Ms. Dresner tried auctioning off 28 of her properties, but some bids were as much as 40 percent lower than what she paid.”
DENIAL—>FRUSTRATION—>PANIC
Clotpoll, I’m a closet reactionary, so watch out when you open the door.
Not into the cars or the country, but like you, I also consider myself somewhat of an expert on North – South relations, having grown up in the Old Dominion and then in South Carolina for eight years.
There is a lingering resentment of northerners down there, but I think it boils down to resistance to change. The small town life that many grew up with is quickly disappearing and the older folks who knew well a simpler time are watching another man’s version of “progress” spread like kudzu throughout their land. The demographic projections for North and South Carolina over the next decade are staggering.
To get back to the post that these comments are connected to, I think it’s worth noting that while Nevada and Arizona have heavy in migration and California and Florida are balanced, their RE markets seem to be crashing hard.
I’m going back to my theme song:
This wreck is going to be bad and nationwide.
One more thing, a lot of talk about crime lately, I’d love to find out if the timing of a crime/talk of crime increase and the onset of a recession have any time link. I know it’s anecdotal, at this point, but it wouldn’t surprise me to see a correlation.
For what it’s worth, the level of homicides in Long Branch and Asbury Park over the past few months has been stunning.
It seems to be all gang related, but I think the two towns have had at least a half dozen killings in the last five months and I would doubt they had that many in the previous three years.
While the two things are almost entirely unrelated, I think people’s fear of violent crime (whether reasonable or not) rises when they have other anxieties, like a mortgage they can’t pay.
#17
Clot- I have relatives in the Charlotte-Matthews area of NC and what you are saying is mostly true, but the massive influx of people from the north/midwest is changing things.
The problem I have when I go down there is its VERY hard to find good Italian food. I suspect it will get better as more people from NYC/LI/NJ move down there.
“This FSBO was at $650K 6 months ago:
http://newjersey.craigslist.org/rfs/259613870.html
Now down to $569K. ”
Actually, I kind of like it, and might buy it for 500. I find it unusual that they actually cut the price so much – FSBOs tend to be a little clueless and the last to cut prices.
Another subprime lender goes down?
http://forum.brokeroutpost.com/loans/forum/2/84090.htm
I don’t want to offend anyone with ties to Texas, but that part of the country is a world apart. Don’t make a leap of faith and assume that many of the social norms around here would apply down there. Also, the weather is a killer.
JB,
I had my car broken into in Newark about 6 months ago. It was right in front of the new arena they are building. Anyway, when I called the police, they told me they wouldn’t send anyone out to take a report. I know they can’t do anything, but I need it for insurance. The police said that there are just too many theft from autos to even bother. They took a report over the phone and that was it.
Yes, CF, no issues with her advice on that one, of course, but I’m really trying to do a citizen’s job here on Walt and the rest of them.
NJGal, they only cut the price after a very long time. Their desperation is slowly supplanting their greed.
Bought for $440K in October 2003:
http://www.zillow.com/HomeDetails.htm?zprop=38751094
Thanks Mama. #58
It’s already been 3 days since the last one and i was getting a bit worried.
The subprime shakeout will continue..
This piece was in Forbes yesterday:
NovaStar Hits New Low on Analyst Report
Shares of Novastar Financial Inc. fell to a 52-week low Monday after a JMP Securities analyst said mortgage loan delinquencies and foreclosures are rising as housing suffers.
JMP Securities analyst Jim J. Fowler in a research report downgraded Novastar Financial (nyse: NFI – news – people ) to “Market Perform” from “Market Outperform.” He painted a bleak portrait of what the weak housing market means for Kansas City, Mo.-based Novastar Financial, which lends money to home buyers with bad credit.
Fowler said until a year and a half ago low interest rates and speculative buying fueled an exuberant housing market. During the run-up, lenders like Novastar Financial loosened their credit standards and devised creative ways to entice consumers with bad credit to borrow money to buy a house, Fowler said.
Now, home prices have stopped rising as much and in some cases are falling as unsold homes remain on the market.
This hurts Novastar Financial because low-income consumers will find it more difficult to pay off loans by borrowing against the value of their homes. That leaves Novastar Financial vulnerable to loan defaults.
“A cursory review of industry data would show that most especially the nonprime market is under siege from faltering credit,” Fowler said.
chifi,
what social norms do you mean? Just curious….
Hey NJGal,
I’m with you. That place looks spiffy and for 500k it’s a buy. (I guess I’ve looked at so much junk I’m easily impressed.) However, aren’t the property taxes in W. Orange sky high? even for Jersey?
Grim,
Here’s the four graphs from that WSJ article that relate to housing. If this isn’t OK, delete it – but I would guess this much is OK for the purposes of discussion:
“He” is Fed Vice Chairman Donald Kohn, the No. 2 guy.
He did, however, strike a note of caution on the housing market. “Tentative signs have begun to emerge that the housing market may be stabilizing,” he said, and “housing starts may be not very far from their trough.” But he added: “The risks around this outlook still are largely to the downside.”
Housing prices are still high relative to their fundamental determinants, such as interest rates and residential rents, he said. The uncertainty is magnified by the fact housing isn’t weakening for the usual reason: high interest rates. Rather, he said, the sector is weakening because sales and construction had risen so much, and it wasn’t clear why.
Mr. Kohn also noted that long-term rates are “relatively low,” which is supporting housing. He said long-term rates could rise if short-term rates “fail to follow the downward path currently built into market expectations,” or if “term premiums” rise. The term premium is the additional interest rate a lender charges for a long-term loan, compared with a short-term one, that can’t be explained by expectations of Fed policy.
Fed officials believe a lower term premium, while difficult to measure, is the main reason long-term rates are so low — perhaps because of the market’s increased faith in low, stable inflation. That is why they don’t think the “inverted yield curve” — or long-term rates that are lower than short-term ones — foreshadows recession, as it has in the past. Indeed, low term premiums are one reason the Fed has decided not to lower short-term rates.
#65,
Novastar is one of the top 20 subprime lenders in 2006.
Welcome to NovaStar –
As a nationwide leader in nonconforming residential mortgage lending, we know how to help you use your home as a powerful
financial tool. Better yet, we can make it easy. Just tell us what you want to do and we’ll help you turn your dream into reality.
>>
Love it :)
“NJGal, they only cut the price after a very long time. Their desperation is slowly supplanting their greed.
Bought for $440K in October 2003:”
And by the looks of it, they did some work. So they won’t actually be making much if they sell it close to asking, which I doubt they will.
“Hey NJGal,
I’m with you. That place looks spiffy and for 500k it’s a buy. (I guess I’ve looked at so much junk I’m easily impressed.) However, aren’t the property taxes in W. Orange sky high? even for Jersey?”
I don’t know much about the town, save for the fact that it’s not on the train line. How is W. Orange anyway? I could consider looking there…
Was just listening to Governer Corzine’s State of the State speech. Propery Tax reform was central. He laid of following 7 items as part of Tax reform.
20% tax cut
4% cap on Tax
State Comptroller
Voluntary Consolidation
Pension & Benefits reform
New School Aid formula
Asset Monetization (Selling or Leasing assets like NJTP)
ABX.HE A, BBB, and BBB- continue to fall..
http://www.markit.com/information/affiliations/abx/history
I’d love if someone could write a derivatives for dummies piece with a focus on mortgages and the ABX.HE. Or are credit derivatives really just pushing it?
jb
NJGal,
W. Orange has come up for discussion here before. I don’t have any first-hand knowledge to offer. As I recall, there are good and bad areas, and the schools could be a problem. Good commuter town I think. Might be worth a look. Perhaps others can weigh in on the town’s merits (or demerits).
Cancellations hit home-builder orders
D.R. Horton, Meritage sales hurt by nervous buyers backing out of contracts
By John Spence, MarketWatch
Last Update: 10:01 AM ET Jan 9, 2007
BOSTON (MarketWatch) — A pair of residential builders Tuesday said they’re still seeing home orders decline as buyers anxious about falling home prices cancel their house purchases.
D.R. Horton Inc.’s sales orders for new homes fell 23% during the first quarter from a year earlier, the company said.
The drop comes as home builders facing higher buyer cancellations in midst of a U.S. housing slowdown offer more inducements to sell houses.
The Fort Worth, Texas-based builder (DHI : D.R. Horton, Inc
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DHI25.43, +0.04, +0.2%) said net sales orders for the quarter ended Dec. 31 dropped to 8,771 homes from 11,463 in the year-ago period. The value of the orders fell to $2.29 billion from $3.17 billion.
D.R. Horton also said its cancellation rate for the quarter was 33%, down from 40% in the fourth quarter.
“Although our cancellation rate decreased … we continue to experience higher-than-normal cancellation rates and an increased use of sales incentives in many of our markets,” Chairman Donald Horton said in a prepared statement.
D.R. Horton’s cancellation rate historically averages between 16% and 20%, according to Banc of America Securities analyst Daniel Oppenheim, who had predicted an 18% order decline for the latest quarter. See Earnings Outlook.
“The lower cancellation rate appears to have benefited from fewer last-minute cancellations,” the analyst wrote in a research note Tuesday. “This may have been driven by increased flexibility to negotiate with buyers who had planned to cancel.”
D.R. Horton, which saw its shares lose about 26% in 2006, is slated to release full quarterly financial results on Jan. 23. Oppenheim at B. of A. said he’ll be keeping a close eye on profit margins, and thinks a lower cancellation rate will boost order trends the next several quarters.
The stock was up 5 cents to $25.44 in early trade Tuesday.
Meritage to take charges
Meritage Homes Corp. said quarterly net sales orders fell 42% to 1,201 homes from a fourth-quarter record of 2,072 in the year-ago period.
As a percentage of quarterly gross sales orders, cancellations for the period ended Dec. 31 rose to a record 48%, the Scottsdale, Ariz.-based builder said Tuesday.
Meritage (MTH : meritage homes corp com
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9:54am 01/09/2007
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Financials
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MTH42.53, -0.89, -2.0%) estimated pre-tax land and inventory charges of $55 million to $65 million, which would reduce quarterly earnings by $1.25 to $1.50 a share, although the company expects to deliver a fourth-quarter profit.
Other builders have also booked impairment charges on unexercised land options and real estate that’s fallen in value.
In a statement, Chief Executive Steven Hilton said home sales fell in the latest quarter “as demand remains slow in most of our markets.”
The CEO said the company continues to renegotiate options in some markets.
“But when these negotiations are unsuccessful, we must sometimes make the difficult decision to forfeit the option deposit and leave the project,” Hilton said. “We plan to continue to operate cautiously until we are confident that housing demand is strengthening in our markets.”
Meritage said it plans to release its 2007 profit outlook when it reports quarterly earnings later this month, with a conference call scheduled for Jan. 25.
Here’s a contrary viewpoint:
http://www.nytimes.com/2007/01/09/business/09home.html?_r=1&ref=business&oref=slogin
WAAAAAAAAH!!!
#76, thanks for the “contrary viewpoint” via the NY Times, did you see the chart?
http://graphics10.nytimes.com/images/2006/08/26/weekinreview/27leon_graph2.large.gif
Looks like a good time to buy.
What’s confusing about it? They are reacting to the higher defaults which will impact the lower tranches.
If you go to the documentation page, it gives exact explanations of the index components.
Have you looked at the credit fixings? Those are really interesting.
Twice Shy, I remember my realtor, when we were looking in Maplewood, begging us to rethink and look in Livingston or W. Orange. But I do think W. Orange has bad areas, as we had a friend who lived there is a really hideous section while he was in school. I also recall that b/c there is no train the prices are a little lower.
I am still not settled on NJ yet but if I do, I will need a good realtor who can handle the Essex/Morris area, particularly Chatham/Madison/Mendham and Millburn/Livingston/Short Hills area. I am also open to other suggestions, like W. Orange.
Al, if the commute works for you, Bridgewater is a great town.
Republican response from Senator from Morris & Hunterdon county.
20% tax cut:
Not enough. Only $1000 will put us back 2.5 years.
4% cap on Tax:
If state expenses increases at 17%, how come local govt be limited to only 4%. The state should put same cap.
State Comptroller:
Voluntary Consolidation:
Brat commission’s suggestions would need to be approved by local governments.
Pension & Benefits reform:
New School Aid formula:
Asset Monetization (Selling or Leasing assets like NJTP):
Pension negotiate with Unions. Selling of assets should be used to pay debt, not for ongoing programs such as property taxes.
I don’t think the article is actually that contrary. It does point to how the reduction in rates bouyed housing (which I agree) but it’s doesn’t build a case for growth in the market.
If rates “keep going down, it will help,” said W. Scott Simon, a managing director at Pimco Advisors. “But it postpones the inevitable. You still have massive amounts of inventory on the market.”
Rich
Al: I live in Bridgewater. I like close access to highways but we have lot of traffic. Schools are decent.
I would say before you make decision, try driving on 287 at 5:30 PM and take exit 17. You can easily wait for about 10 to 15 minutes before you even reach Somerville circle. Both 202 & 206 have become very busy in morning & evening.
JB just posted this-
New Jersey issues CSBS non-traditional mortgage guidance
listentothecrybabywannabehomeowners,
Thanks for the link, I didn’t see that today.
jb
I have stood at the exit 5 (Stelton Drive) on 287 for 15 minutes before…
I never try to get off at Stelton during rush hour. I get off at River or Centennial and then drive local. 287 traffic gets even worse around Exit 5.
Manville is getting “cheap” right now – that is compare to other places. I can probably get 2bedroom/1bath 1000 sqft house in semi-decent shape for right under 250K……
Since you’re looking in Bridgewater, have you checked out Branchburg? I like that town a lot but like Bridgewater, I can’t afford it.
http://biz.yahoo.com/special/pf010907_article2.html
Housing: Curb Your Enthusiasm About a Recovery
By Peter Coy
BusinessWeek Online
That said, right now is not the ideal time to buy or move up, even with the recent price declines. The inventory of existing homes shot up 34 percent from October, 2005, to October, 2006, and now stands at nine months’ worth of condos and seven months’ worth of single-family houses at the current rate of sales. That backlog will take a long time, and a lot of price-cutting, to clear out.
James Bednar Says:
January 9th, 2007 at 1:07 pm
ABX.HE A, BBB, and BBB- continue to fall..
http://www.markit.com/information/affiliations/abx/history
I’d love if someone could write a derivatives for dummies piece with a focus on mortgages and the ABX.HE. Or are credit derivatives really just pushing it?
jb
Be more specific……understanding derivatives is not difficult – conceptually it is as easy as your basic understanding now……what spooks people is appreciating how to price these instruments and understanding how their dynamic value changes.
If you focus on the concepts and avoid the analytical rigor, it is very straightforward……
Bost?
East Brunswick on north bound side of Rt 1. Please not traffic on Rt 18 is a nightmare.
listetothewanna: You did read th whole articel right, you know the part where they said that applications have falling back again, and the 10yr is trading up again etc. etc. the articel is neither here nor there at this point.
Oh did you hear Mr. Pohl’s comments from the Fed yesterday. No rate cuts on the horizon.
Thanks sync!
I’m renting on the somerset side of rt. 27 – very close to kendall park. Commute to cook isnt bad.
So that would be a smaller move – if at all.
By the way, I am referring to the Rutgers campus bus.
“Great school areas around Rutgers is what I’m looking for”
East Brunswick — but the traffic on Route 18 will keep you entertained for hours.
Al, I wouldn’t even burn a realtor’s time, or your own, at this point.
The party has just started.
UnRealtor,
My ‘online research’ shows that E.Bruns schools, especially Warnsdorfer and Frost are exceptional.
I don’t mind the traffic – not much of commute if I take Ryders to Cook.
However, I just cannot understand E.Bruns house prices. But I’m looking.. prices are dropping..
LOL I just saw a 1/2 million dollar townhouse in East Brunswick.
on GSMLS
I rent on the border of North/South Brunswick. It’s a nice area on the Rte 27 side since it borders Somerset county (Kendall Park, Frankin Park,etc) with good schools. The Rte 1 side in North Brunswick gets progressively ghetto-ish as you go north towards New Brunswick/Rutgers. Route 18 in New Brunswick around Exit 9 NJTP exits is a nighmare around rush hour into East Brunswick. East Brunswick schools are better than South Brunswick I am told.
Here’s how I break it down
East Brunswick – Really good
South Brunswick and south part of North Brunswick – really good
north part of North Brunswick – ok
New Brunswick – ghetto
I do a daily commute on 287. 287 from Exit 14 through 5 is a constant bottleneck. I get off at Exit 12 daily instead of Exit 10 and take the back roads. Exit 17 for Bridgewater is usually backed up 1-2 miles on 287, so anyone taking exits to Rte 202/206 should consider the inconvenience. Basically, there are trade offs in terms of traffic and access to trains anywhere you are in NJ; you got to make a choice and suck it up!
I dont have any solid stats with me, but i have noticed (from realtor notifications) that E.bruns houses are falling more than in south bruns.
But everything’s still insanely overpriced.
And parking at the train stations is a nightmare too. Long waits for monthly parking permits at New Brunswick, Edison and Metropark. Dunno about Jersey ave.
Does on have to speak a foreign language to
live in the
Edison Area?
Does one have to speak a foreign language to
live in the
Edison Area?
NJGal,
West Orange is iffy. The taxes are really high even for Essex (that house’s taxes are over $11,000 according to Zillow) and a lot of people are either sending their kids to private school or homeschooling. I know families who do both because they don’t want to send their kids to the public schools. My town also sees people moving here from West Orange before their kids are ready to enter the middle school. Taxes are so high and then if you add in private school, it’s just not worth it. You also have to watch which area – you don’t want to buy near the border of Orange.
Willow
RentLord,
Good schools + nice town = $$$$
UnRealtor Says:
January 9th, 2007 at 3:43 pm
RentLord,
Good schools + nice town = $$$$
Amen.
“Does on have to speak a foreign language to
live in the Edison Area?”
Hindi.
PS – Girls, beware if your name is ‘Laura’ and you travel to India.
UnRealtor, The equation I’m seeing is this:
Good schools + nice town + $$$ = crappy POS
For the dollar i’ll be spending, and the fact that the seller is going to be making upwards of $300K in the transaction, I expect ‘good stuff’ in the house. Not crappy carpets, walls with cracks, split levels!
NJGal – I think I remember your husband was possibly getting a job in East Hanover? East Hanover is a nice town. So is Whippany, which is right next door, and Montville. Schools are very good and people are less snobby than Chartham/Short Hills/Millburn. Since it’s Morris County taxes are significantly lower. East Hanover, especially, has lower taxes since Kraft is in town. Since you commute, you could take the bus from Parsippany into Port Authority. I know people say the bus sux, but I take it myself and prefer it over the train. It’s a lot faster in the morning (40-45 minutes) and parking is free. Coming home is still 90 minutes, but to be honest that’s not much different from the train. Plus there is a lot more flexibility with the buses – they leave every 10 minutes during rush hour, as opposed to every hour for the train. Alternatively, you can drive to Journal Square in Jersey City and take the PATH in. If you move to Livingston that would be a good way to commute – you could probably be at your desk, door-to-door, in an hour.
Bost:
I was checking through the tax records in my building and came across this……
he also bought the unit next door and combine them…..essentially a 4 BR direct view NYC.
He is five floors below Corzine, and four below Arturo Gatti.
http://tax1.co.monmouth.nj.us/cgi-bin/m4sr.cgi?&srch_type=1&ms_user=monm&district=090513821
Yeah, I will check those places out. I am not so concerned about snobby, as I grew up in a snobby town and survived, and sadly, those places tend to have good schools and the values hold up. But I have heard those other places are nice as well. I will look into them. I just really don’t like the bus, even with the flexibility. I trust the trains more (although being that it’s NJ transit and I only know Metro North and the LIRR, I could be misplacing my trust;)). It’s still a pie in the sky thing, but I like to be prepared. I do, however, love looking at the taxes in Morris. Unreal, to someone who is used to Westchester taxes!
NJGal,
Don’t be afraid of the bus. My husband took the bus for years from Willowbrook Mall and, except for right before Christmas when getting out of the mall in the evening is hell, had very few problems. There is a separate bus lane going into the tunnel so even if other traffic is stopped, the buses keep moving. Also, if there is an accident on Rt 3 or 46, the bus driver can then divert to Rt 80.
Willow
Ok, maybe I will not be so bus aversive. I also like the idea of driving and taking the path, as my office is really close to it – my old boss did that from Livingston and it never took him more than 45 minutes.
What I really hate is the not knowing! I can’t do anything until we determine whether he get the job or not. It’s 50/50 and we’re not counting on anything – never count chicken before they are hatched!
Corzine made his State of the State speech today. As expected, it focused on property tax relief.
In discussing how the relief would be funded, he said:
“The recently dedicated revenues from the sales tax and the redirected homestead rebates make up the overwhelming majority of the necessary funding.”
So, the majority of your relief plan is just a shell game; adding a new tax someplace else and just renaming the “homestead rebate” “property tax relief credit”.
I wonder what the net impact of this “relief” will be. Sounds like it’s approaching zero.
http://www.news12.com/NJ/topstories/article?id=188148
ChiFi-
Mr. Manning shouldn’t get too comfortable there. I see 2nd string in Houston in his future.
ChiFi-
Was that the “rotten egg” smell coming from NJ yesterday?
Eli Shmeli, who cares when Apple just announced it’s new phone.
http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/apple-unwraps-iphone-macworld/story.aspx?guid=%7BE5F71BEE%2D9873%2D4F52%2DA4D9%2DA6EAE4942D07%7D
Actually, I don’t care about the phone at all, I’m only posting the link because the image of the phone contains a picture of clowns (percula) in a green bubbletip anemone (e. quadricolor).
jb
jb
I don’t know why, but the phone looks good, that I’m suspicious it’s just a fancy store bought cake that tastes like cake and smells like desperation.
NJGal – NJ Transit trains are nothing like the LIRR – they are slow as molasses and break down quite often. Plus the lines are owned by Amtrak and if there’s a problem then Amtrak trains get first priority.
Michelle, that’s what I’ve heard, and I cringe to think that anything could be worse than the LIRR – they slow down when it drizzles! Hence my feelings about being a little closer, like Millburn. But we’ll see how it works out over here – if we end up in NJ I will chronicle the search here!
“And parking at the train stations is a nightmare too. Long waits for monthly parking permits at New Brunswick, Edison and Metropark. Dunno about Jersey ave.”
I hear the waiting list is in months at Jersey Ave, unlike years at the other stations. But the frequency of trains in much less than the other stations, and no NYC train stops on weekends at Jersey Ave. The Coach USA buses into Port Authority are a better option; more reliable and frequent than NJ Transhit. You also save on parking fees.
Rentlord (#120)
The value is what you see in the home; what the owner stands to make has nothing to do with the home’s market worth.
You might check out Metuchen. If you live within walking distance of the train station, Rutgers is two train stops south in New Brunswick. Plus Metuchen schools are excellent.
WAAAAAAAH!!!
listentothecrybabies: The value is in what the buyer is willing to pay, and the seller is willing to sell for.
We the buyers control the market now.
WAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA right back at you buddy.
Eli Manning is apparantly a bagholder.
Buyers can’t control the RE market ,with limited land avaliable the sellers still call the shots …If sellers can’t get there price they just live there ,when there are no sellers the buyers are screwed
Wouldn’t that make Corzine an even bigger bagholder by
elevationassociation?jb
Joel,
You’re making old man Keynes roll over in his grave. The fact of the matter is, there are always buyers and sellers, without either there is no market. People die, people relocate for jobs or family, people want to upsize and downsize, people lose jobs, and so on and so on. You seem to be making the assumption that sellers will collectively act together to keep prices up, this just isn’t the case. Grandma Sarah, who might not have even known there was a real estate boom, could easily sell her home for tens of thousands (if not hundreds of thousands) less than what her neighbor purchased a similar home for. What about Cousin Bill, who gets a killer job offer out in Sacramento. Think he’ll stick around to keep his neighbors comp high?
Buyers and sellers, together, make the market.
jb
Joel, #137
Many buyers are getting squeezed as their adjustable rate mortgages adjust up.
Last year almost 40% of buyers used exotic financing to “buy” a home, up from about 3% five years ago.
Foreclosures are up significantly.
And comps are set by a handful of transactions that occur, which would include people who have died/estates, people heading to the nursing home, retirees downsizing, divorce, etc, etc.
Transactions will occur, and these become the new comps.
When there are no buyers, sellers are screwed (hence inventory currently at historic levels, with a monsoon to hit come spring).
It’s all math. Either buying makes financial sense, or it doesn’t — for many years it did, today it doesn’t.
James Bednar Says:
January 9th, 2007 at 6:04 pm
Wouldn’t that make Corzine an even bigger bagholder by elevation association?
jb
Corzine rents….he’s moving to the W Hoboken when it is finished.
Hmm, I wonder how well that map correlates with the Tax Foundation’s findings/rankings on state taxes (both corporate and individual)…
Presumably Delaware would have a higher influx of people if they ditched the high-cost workers comp and regressive gross receipts taxes in favor of fairer and more competitive-against-other-states policies.. DE is about to lose its Chrysler plant, partly because of the relative cost of doing business vs. the south.
(And if the Chrysler plant closes, presumably there’d be more crime due to unemployment, but then again maybe fewer trains will rumble past my apt waking me up at 2am…)
JB’s a faster typist. :)
Ever notice that listentothecrybabywannabehomeowners and Booya Bob are never in the room at the same time ?????????
the next “innovation” (scr*w you buyers):
‘Mortgage Payment Deferral Inc., Roseville, Calif., has announced the introduction of a patent-pending mortgage program that allows homeowners to defer from three to 36 months of their mortgage payments.”
1 yr CD Here I Come! (…overseas, of course)
Take this scenario for example..
Lets say sellers collectively decide not to sell, eliminating or minimizing supply in order to drive up prices.
What happens to the thousands of Realtors in NJ who are now without income due to the dramatic reduction in transactions?
What happens to the appraisers?
What about the mortgage lenders that now have no business?
What happens to the local papers who lose the significant amount of revenue associated with real estate advertising?
Now here is where it gets interesting..
What about the thousands of construction workers without projects? (One can only assume that commercial and landholders would hold out as well)
What does Pottery Barn do when revenues for new furniture purchases begins to fall, because fewer people are moving?
What do employers do when it becomes to find new employees, because local living expenses are so high? Do they look to other, less expensive areas, for expansion?
What happens when prevailing wages get so high that McDonalds can’t afford to operate here?
jb
Chi,
Are you sure Eli is not turning it into a 3 bdrm?? I heard he missed a wall.
Joel, #137,
Are you still holding pet.com??? Regarding your limited land scenario, why are H-B’s puking out their land options??
Weight Loss?
Geez, JB, now you’re getting into scary territory. Don’t go there. Them’s Happy Meal’s you’re threatening.
Here’s what happens, Joel:
Inventory up, Prices down. As another poster puts it: End of story.
# njrebear Says:
January 9th, 2007 at 2:29 pm
East Brunswick on north bound side of Rt 1. Please not traffic on Rt 18 is a nightmare.
______________________
Uh, that would be New Brunswick. I know the are all too well.
Joel,
Your are right, especially in the long run. They’re not making any more land, population continues to rise, land close in is built out.
In the long run, sellers control the market. The market is the net of all buy/sell information, not just the bits and pieces presented here.
Buyers,
WAAAAAAAAAAH!!!
Jim,
My experience in Saint Anthony was a little different, more of a honkytonk than upscale. I guess I was travelling with the wrong types on that trip. It was a few years ago and I have to say I agree with ChiFI on this one. TX has only one cool locale IMO, that would be Austin and the Hill Country nearby with Lake Travis. The Dallas/Ft Worth Metroplex is Atlanta without topography or trees (not many atleast) El Paso is dangerous from drug runners and polluted from the Maquilladorro smelters in Ciudad de Juarez.
As has been pointed out previously, the south is still fighting the Civil War. I lived in Atlanta for almost 3 years and can say that the war is still very much alive and to the other Georgians Atlanta is Yankee territory and I don’t mean baseball.
Listen,
If you have not been paying attention. NJ lost 80,000 people last year. That is 1% of the population. Most experts attribute it to the high cost of living here. Just remember we renters can just move. At least I can. I can work anywhere in the U.S. So keep on cheering the high prices because eventually you will find no takers because they will have moved away.
NJ is no longer the great state it used to be, and it makes me sad. But I will get over it.
listentothecrybabywannabehomeowners!!!
WAAAAAAAAAH!!!
folks should consider Denver, Colorado.
Just got back from there on assignment.
Love that town & state.
The economy has slowed, but its still healthy, and housing is starting to become ripe for the pickens.
NJ… it sucks.
SAS
Your are right, especially in the long run. They’re not making any more land, population continues to rise, land close in is built out.
Which is why Japanese land prices have skyrocketted since the 1970s and are now only affordable by the richest oil sheiks. Oh wait.. What is that? Land prices have fallen for 15-some consecutive years? Oh, ok, scratch that.
jb
Listen,
Good to see you back. You took a high fastball to the head, Sunday, and decided to run out of the batter’s box. If the sellers control, why can I get a free Mercedes??? I’ll ask again, are they naked long???
SAS,
Good affordable cities in the west IMO;
Albuquerque NM
Las Cruces, NM
Phoenix, AZ
Flagstaff, AZ
St, George UT
Salt Lake City
Boise, Idaho
Colorado Springs, CO
Bellingham, Washington
most have colleges and decent airports within an hour drive. I know I am missing some others but these I have been to. As for the east coast outside of the expensive areas choose your poison.
“Boise, Idaho”
My only complaint about that town is all the god damn LDS people.
‘)
SAS
LDS = Latter Day Saints.
watch your kids if these people are in the room.
he he…..
SAS
metroplexual,
add Taos, NM to that list too.
SAS
SAS,
It has had a recent influx of CA people like Salt Lake had 15 years ago. In no time the balance will change. Heck that was even St. George but not no more.
But you will find LDS every where in the intermountain west it is a fact of life out there. Just get used to not saying that something sucks. My sister in law made that mistake in SLC and caused quite a stir.
I didn’t add Taos because the crime is inordinately high there. I know someone who moved there and regretted it almost immediately.
metroplexual,
yes, true about the crime in Taos.
The city of Taos is great, but if you go much past it, it can be sketchy. Thanks for pointing that out.
Also, Ft. Collins, CO is a great town as well.
Spend some time up there back in the day.
Use to have an old flame who was an english professor. “Never end a sentence with a preposition”
yup, those were good times.
SAS
Never made it to Ft. Collins but my SiL in SLC almost moved there. It was a coin toss between CO and Billings MT.
“Billings MT”
I like Montana myself.
but Billings is a little too close to the reservations for me.
SAS
Yeah, if there is an ugly part of MT that is it. I would almost be inclined to add missoula or Bozeman to the list but they are too remote for my tastes NWA covers them but tickets are expensive.
Njgal,
Where did you grow up in westchester? you’re right taxes are really high but not in all areas; and alot of the school districts are top-notch and metro north is way better than both LIRR and NJtransit.
BC Bob Says:
January 9th, 2007 at 6:49 pm
Chi, Are you sure Eli is not turning it into a 3 bdrm?? I heard he missed a wall.
NICE!!!
My buddy said I should leave a message with the doorman letting him know what we all know he knows already……
Reminds me of the Giambi joke back when he was still coming down off the steroids……Giambi couldn’t hit water if he jumped off the GWB.
Missoula is great…as is Glacier and Whitefish.
Believe it or not, my brother for a time was working for Prudential in Newark, and commuted from about 30 minutes outside of Missoula. [he only spent about 5 days a month in Newark]
JB,
Nothing stops a troll more than ignoring them… or facts.
Rich
Chi,
Seriously, Eli is a top notch individual. I met him a couple of times, total class.
SAS #155
Couldn’t agree with you more regarding Denver and NJ.
jb #156
Using the Japan as a comparison is stretch. Different economies, culture, far different situations.
On the other hand, look at RE in China, the UK, Ireland, etc. Appreciated nicely, slowed down a bit, definitely not crashed.
It all depends on how one interprets the data. Which is much of my purpose posting on your blog. A teriffic blog, I might add.
Rich #171 – I’m way too young to be a troll.
WAAAAAAAAAAH!!!
I still think that listentothecrybabywannabehomeowners and BoooYa Bob are one-in-the-same person.
Grim-
Set up a “Thunderdome” thread: only Listen and Booyah Bob post.
Two men enter, one man leaves.
New Mexico is a smoking red-hot housing market, especially for 55+ developments. Don’t believe it? Check the one year chart of AMREP (NYSE: AXR), a builder specializing in top NM locations:
http://finance.google.com/finance?q=amrep
Yes, this IS a HB stock. And it may not be through running.
All usual disclaimers apply.
Listen,
Data…..and trends, cycles and patterns. Some of oblivious to/ignorant of all. That’s OK, that’s what makes markets. The end result of chaos is opportunity. Chaos will not occur until the fat lady [not naked] sings. Oh by the way, rumor has it that’s she’s warming up.
Zac,
You may be onto something.
Clot,
AMREP:
You think you could have offered this up last year when it was 40 or 50??? Are you pumping and dumping??
It’s official, Popular is out.
Puerto Rico’s Popular quits US subprime business
http://today.reuters.com/news/articleinvesting.aspx?type=bondsNews&storyID=2007-01-09T232450Z_01_N09201248_RTRIDST_0_POPULARINC-MORTGAGES-UPDATE-1.XML
Zac,
You are generous in your assessment of BoooooooooooooYa Bob.
WAAAAAAAAAH!!!
BC Bob-
Pump and dump? Me? Hey, these guys didn’t just crawl out from under a rock…and, they’re local (based in Princeton).
I’ve never fully understood the newsstand part of their business, though. Just bizarre.
Speaking of NJ sports stars who might be looking at a change in living arrangements:
http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/news/story?id=2725524
Beautiful women who are certifiably insane are hot.
jb,
Sorry to hear about the S4, some ten years ago I lost a new 7 series from the Lumus lot on Broad Street and they built the guardstand. Seems as if this is still the auto dealer of choice for Newark shoppers.
Clot: If Booya is “Blaster”, who is “Master”……..?
also, does that mean the Electricity Generating Plant on the NJTP by the Goethals Bridge runs on pig$hit?
Hi, been lurking and reading. Its a great place and I’ve learned a lot. Some of the posts here reminded me of a possibly OT thought that I’ve had for a while.
Is there any RE transaction tool to “list” buyers? Like a reverse-MLS?
Say I have my criteria:
Island kitchen,
South facing,
1100-2000 sq,
Veritas school district,
10 min walking to PATH…
Price requirement:
Will pay 400,000 tops
Must be 20% off 2005 price
Is there some place I can stick this information up so any seller in NJ can see it and bid their house for my $400,000?
Perhaps with a tag line:
No non-conforming house will be considered.
or
House with 1 non-conforming feature may be considered if the non-conformance is minor.
I want to be able to list somewhere and have sellers send their offer to me (or my buyer’s agent)–lazy perhaps, but it saves me time. It would also be great for managing 3 available houses on the same block: “Great, you 3 all fit my criteria, who can give me the lowest price?” And as for people migrating, bank foreclose etc, it would be a great resource for them to find potential buyers. So, is there any tool where can I sell my greenback for some house?
Then Cadwalder can tell their sellers: Be a stronger seller, buyer motivated.
If it’s out there, please drop a pointer. And easy on the hurt if it’s a silly idea. New to it all. Thanks.
No hurt.
The industry model is you call a RE agent and they search the current MLS/other available (haha) listings. Then they send you an e-mail link with the houses meeting your criteria.
Anyway, the commission worms its way into the price either way…just depends on which agent gets what chunk of the $$$ pie, and how you negotiate it. It’s not like you’d be getting a discount in today’s world by being an efficient buyer. Maybe in some future mls.
One of my buyer’s agents NEVER looked on the FSBO sites unless they were on the MLS, or if I spoon-fed them. That’s where you might miss some.
My conversation with realtor 2 days ago… Italic text are my thoughts:
Realtor: Hello I am calling to return you call from ##/##/07… (formal greetings and introductions.)
I understand you are looking fora house in ####$##$ area??
Yes?? (why else whould I call you??)
Are you pre-approved and what are your limits??
(Hey w.t.f. first question of conversation is this?? may be you’d like my bank accound statements as well??)
My answer:
Also I do not see the relevance of my pre-approval limits on current conversation, I am pre-approved well within limits of my price range – price range for starter homes.
realtor: “and what is your price range?”
Me: Clearly since price range of the starter homes varies significantly with area it is meaningless to put a fixed label on it. I am looking for starter homes in this neighbourhoods. Isn’t that enough information to start looking?? (I am not giving you a number. You must have switched to Realtors from a New Car Salesman. Why such an obsession with money in my pocket?? I do not like you already.)
Me: I would like to look at these three houses which are advertized by you, are they still available??
Realtor (seems like he is greatly turned off): Yes they are, How about I will email you some listing tomorrow and you email me back ??
Me: Sure. (how do this guy sell anything?? Here I am, telling him that I want to look at three of the homes he is representing, and he tell’s me I will email you back some listings???)
Goodbuy….
Now, with skills like this you will get fired at my work in about 2 weeks… When Client calls in is freaking sacred. granted our minimal sale of a product is in 10’s of millions so every one of the clients or even remotelly potential clients are very dear to us. But I do not see any money from one particular sale like reators do. Is their buisness is still very good so they do not need to sell anything? Am I suppose to call him and tell him – hey I am going to vbuy this home tomorrow, can we meet and sigh papers, and after that, the agency will get 18,000$????
Any comments: Did I do something wrong?? Do you have to tell the realtor pre-approved amounts or amount of money you are ready to spend? Why would I want to give up such an important piece of information, if there are future possible negotiations??
Remember I did tell him that I am pre-approved enough for homes in the area, and I told him that I am ready to look at 3 homes he represent, and he told me that those homes are still up for sale!!!
What is going on?? Customer Service?? (I am his customer, am I not??)
By the way it was full service full fee, one of the biggest real estate brokerage companies in Northeast.
By the way it was 3 days now, and no email with the listings from that realtor.
“Beautiful women who are certifiably insane are hot.”
Clot,
LOL!!! She certainly fits those 2 categories.
“Where did you grow up in westchester? you’re right taxes are really high but not in all areas; and alot of the school districts are top-notch and metro north is way better than both LIRR and NJtransit.”
Not me, my hubby – in Clinton-land. And I agree – it’s really hit or miss by town as to how high your taxes will be and why.
The plan is to end up in Northern Westchester one day, even if it means a stopover in NJ for a few years. We like the amount of space you get for your money and the schools are pretty good. I like the Katonah-Lewisboro area. My dream would be Ridgefield, CT or Wilton or the like, but the CT Metro North is just a little too painful. But CT – now that is cheap in terms of taxes.
NJGAL Ridgefield CT is absolutley beautiful,and the schools are fnatastic,and the taxes cheap.
I have a family member who j moved up there a couple of years ago from NYC, they are both retired. Beautiful home on 1 acre taxes less than 5K a year.
The town is extremely well run, and if the towns people do not want something, it does not happen.
There was a proposal in late 2005 to build a huge town house complex in the town, Te residents said no, fought it, and killed it.
If i did not have to do the NYC thing, I would move in a heart beat. Oh and by the wasy according to my family memebr the market up there is absolutely dead, with lots of inventory.
AL: “Any comments: Did I do something wrong?”
Yes. It looks like you gave the agent too much to process at once. You made some logic leaps there, friend. Gotta think baby steps for them. Also, some veiled insults to the agent may be involved in how you handled it.
This process has worked a little better for me in the initial stage of the relationship managment.
1. When calling a new agent, talk their business first, just like with a client. Ask if they would be representing you as dual on their listings. Get an answer. Ask if they have any examples of how this has worked for them in the past, including samples of fee arrangmtns. You probably won’t get anything here, but may be worth a try.
2. Tell them you want a little more control on the listings you review and visit. Make up some 8th Grade reason why, in case the agent asks you, “Why?” Something like: I’m a busy person, and happen to have some PC background, so I have a little experience with internet searching.
3. Tactfully dodge the price range question. Again, make something up if you have to, that the agent will happily accept, like, “My cultural heritage is one of quality, not price, so we want to think of this as a home first, not a price.” Al, I was born in the USA, and I’ve even used that one and it works. Gets price out of the pic. and forces the agent to respect a cultural difference, even if that “cultural” thing is bogus. If you are controlling the listings, you control the price range, and they have absolutely no reason to know your max.
3. When the pre-qual issue comes up, tell the agent that can wait until you are truly interested in a particular home and then absolutely be sure your selected mtg. broker ONLY drafts the prequal doc up to amount of the list price. That doesn’t mean it’s what you’re going to pay. Do not ever give the agent the full qualification info, or show the agent your supporting documents/savings statements/asset confirmation letters/etc.
Bergen, it remains my dream and I couldn’t agree more about Ridgefield. I think that once our careers are more stable, it’s a real possibility. There is always a chance of hubby ending up in Westchester for work. If that happens (and it’s all a HUGE if at this point), there would be nothing stopping us from moving there and me taking a job up there, or by that time if we have kids who are in school, continuing to work in the city. Yes, the commute is a massive pain, but if I could find something that was part time in the office, who knows? Law can be a flexible field at later stages in one’s career.
It’s such a dream town for me and my husband – it literally would be the first place I would look if we had no work concerns.
Al,
Try a different realtor, maybe?
NJ GAl Good Luck with that. Ridgefield is just head and shoulders over any thing in NJ.
I sadi if Iit wer nto for the NYC thing I would move in a heart beat. But it is also my kids, waited too long to move, and they are now settled. It would be very unfair for me to move them at this point, so that is a consideration too. But if I could, I would.
Would you ever consider driving around your target areas, picking out 25 houses that are NOT for sale, and then putting “statement-of-interest” postcards in their mailboxes?
I know someone who purchased a home in a very nice town in Bergen County in a similar fashion. He drove past the place every day. He knew the current owner was getting old, struggled to do the yardwork and maintenance on the place. One day he decided to stop in, knocked on the door, and complimented the owner on the home (it was historic). He told the owner that he and his wife were very interested in the home and to let him know if they were considering selling the home.
He bought the place a few weeks later, the prior owner moved somewhere down south.
jb
Yeah, we don’t have kids yet, although hopefully soon. The timetable for Westchester would be 4-5 years from now, which would mean they would not quite be settled yes, considering any kids we have won’t arrive until at the earliest 2008. But that is definitely an issue.
syncmaster Says:
January 10th, 2007 at 9:54 am
Al,
Try a different realtor, maybe?
Lol i do not think that I ever had this one….
SO I am contacting other people – now by reference from some friends…
I was just wondering how “normal” realtors like this one are??
There is a house around the corner from my friend on LI like that older large lot older smaller victorian, very elderly old man.
Thats sucker is so coming down and 4 12 foot wide houses are going on that lot.
I wish I could buy it first and make all that money. Lot 700K, 4 12 foot wide houses near a LIRR stop in north shore LI = Mercedes Benz and Bitches here I come!
But then I live in Fort Lee NJ where luxury townhouses look out on the dumpsters of the TacoBell/KFC
My EVIL Plan:
Keep living here spending no money, working my ass off. Scout out the homes in my area, send them interest letters to the old folk living in the remaining 1 family non duplex homes. Since they get intrest letters from local “investors” like every day.
Tell them unlike their new neighbors, I wont bulldoze it and put up a 2-4 family for them, their uncles, cousins, grandma’s, parents ect. And their won’t be 5 cars infront of their house all the time.
They move to florida, I then bulldoze the place make it into a duplex and sell it to those people.
HA HA HA I WIN. And then I can afford a house in NJ from the profit.
I SO SMART!!!
Al (200)-
Agents who answer the phones at “traditional” RE offices are the bottom of the barrel. Either newbies or low producers.
Would you consider answering the phones for free for 3 hours at a pop in hopes of bagging a “live” prospect a good use of time? I think casino gambling offers a better rate of return.
“Would you ever consider driving around your target areas, picking out 25 houses that are NOT for sale, and then putting ‘statement-of-interest postcards in their mailboxes?”
A seller receiving that, would probably think “got a fish on the line” and then ask some fantasy price.
Duckweed #187, that’s a brilliant concept.
Agents who answer the phones at “traditional” RE offices are the bottom of the barrel. Either newbies or low producers.
The man speaks the truth.
jb
JB…can you move a comment at 9:38 out of moderation? Maybe it’ll help Al, maybe not.
Out of moderation, good post.
jb
BTW,
Jim nice word play. Wasn’t Elizabeth Shue in that movie and isn’t she from Maplewood?