From Bloomberg:
As Housing Goes Bust, Lenders Become Predators?: Caroline Baum
Congress is gearing up for hearings on predatory lending, the latest chapter in its long history of barn-door-closings on already-departed horses.
Just some background in case anyone hasn’t picked up a U.S. newspaper in the last month. The subprime lending market is in trouble as borrowers who are, by definition, poor credit risks live up to their reputation.
Delinquency rates on these risky home loans are rising, subprime lenders are going belly up at an alarming rate, criminal probes of some lenders are under way (the trial lawyers must be salivating at the prospect of a whole new class of class-action suits), and front-page stories are proliferating almost as fast as you can get a no-money-down, no-questions- asked mortgage.
Make that as fast as you could have gotten a loan, before the regulatory agencies got wind of the trouble.
Last week, federal financial regulators, including the Federal Reserve, Office of the Controller of the Currency and the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp., proposed a series of guidelines “to address certain risks and emerging issues related to subprime mortgage lending practices, specifically, particular adjustable-rate mortgage (ARM) lending products.”
The feds are concerned that (my interpolation) borrowers may not appreciate that a 2 percent teaser rate might not be good for 30 years. (See, “If it sounds too good to be true, it probably is.”) They’re afraid lenders may be unaware of the risks these loans pose to financial institutions. (The risk of making risky loans? Really?)
…
Now, full disclosure is important in any business. The more both parties know — in this case, the lender and the borrower – – the more informed decisions they can make.Fraudulent practices or misrepresenting the terms of a loan undermine the soundness of the financial system.
But where was it written that a lender should dispense with normal due diligence — verification of income and assets — before extending credit to a deadbeat to finance 100 percent of the purchase price of a house? Does that qualify as best practices suggested by both federal and state regulators, or in the best interest of either party if the borrower doesn’t have the ability to repay the loan?
…
“Investors were irrationally exuberant” at the same time “lenders and brokers were given incentives — a big pay package — to get customers into subprime loans,” says Andy LaPerriere, a managing director at the ISI Group in Washington.“Innovation may have made it easier to mislead,” he says. “But the key driver was the willingness on the part of lenders and mortgage purchasers to take on high risk, which will turn out to be a big mistake.”
And low interest rates created artificial (read: speculative) demand.
During a bubble, be it in the stock market or real estate prices, we want the government to stay out of the way. The bust produces finger-pointing, congressional hearings and new regulations.
…
The problems in the subprime market may be just the tip of the iceberg, given the depth and duration of the housing bubble — and the money tied up in it.“We’ve created an unproductive asset,” says Joe Carson, director of global economic research at AllianceBernstein. “A house doesn’t produce income.”
Mortgage debt rose by $4.7 trillion from the end of 2000 through the third quarter of 2006, according to the Fed’s Flow of Funds report. “We created as much debt in housing in the last six years as we did in the prior 50,” Carson says.
From Bloomberg:
Paulson Says Bad Debts in the U.S. to Be Contained
Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson said bad debts arising from the U.S. housing slump will be limited, moving to cool concern that defaults among subprime mortgage companies will spread to less risky lenders.
“Credit issues are there, but they are contained,” Paulson said to reporters in Tokyo during a four-day tour of Asia. The U.S. financial sector is healthy and most institutions won’t feel “a big impact.”
Shares of New Century Financial Corp., the second-biggest U.S. lender of home loans to risky borrowers, had a record drop yesterday after the company disclosed it faces a criminal probe and JPMorgan Chase & Co. said the company may declare bankruptcy. Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. reduced its investment rating on mortgage companies because a surge in loan defaults may spread beyond the riskiest credits.
“Paulson is trying to reassure the market because that’s been a focus and one of the factors driving down the stocks in terms of how it might fray out for the wider economy,” said Amy Auster, head of international economics at Australia & New Zealand Banking Group Ltd. in Melbourne. “We think there will be limited impact both on the housing market and the economy.”
From Bloomberg:
Greenspan Sees `One-Third Probability’ of Recession This Year
Former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan said there’s a “one-third probability” of a U.S. recession this year and that the current expansion won’t have the staying power of its decade-long predecessor.
“We are in the sixth year of a recovery; imbalances can emerge as a result,” Greenspan, 81, said in an interview yesterday at his office in downtown Washington. “Ten-year recoveries have been part of a much broader global phenomenon. The historically normal business cycle is much shorter” and is likely to be this time, he added.
Greenspan’s outlook contrasts with the prediction of his successor Ben S. Bernanke, who told Congress last week that the economy may strengthen this year. Bernanke’s upbeat assessment helped steady stock markets on Feb. 28 after a plunge the day before that some traders attribute partly to Greenspan’s musing that a recession couldn’t be ruled out.
Didn’t Greenspan the other day say that there is a possibility but not a probability of a recession?
S. Koreans Snap Up U.S. Homes, Sparking Capital Exodus Concerns
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601109&sid=agHLFlBk_HQo&refer=home
Kim Jong Hyun, a Seoul software programmer, is looking to invest $1 million in a four-bedroom house with three-car garage and swimming pool — in New Jersey.
>>
South Korean Software engineer buying a million dollar ‘investment’ property in New Jersey. Shame on you IT guys in the US. You should all be buying at least a $2 mil house!!!
Lots of green this morning..
jb
kodiak (4)-
Thanks for that article. We certainly don’t live at the end of the yellow brick road, but the last few sentences of that piece should put a lot of our problems in perspective. Blemishes and all, this is still a wonderful place to live.
Take a look at this classic folks –> MLS #2380883
$759,000 for this mess. It looks like two houses collided through a particle accelerator. It’s on a main road to boot.
Shiller’s take on housing in the new Businessweek.
http://www.businessweek.com/magazine/content/07_11/b4025100.htm?chan=top+news_top+news+index_investing
““We’ve created an unproductive asset,’’ says Joe Carson, director of global economic research at AllianceBernstein. “A house doesn’t produce income.’’”
Ha Ha Ha Ha Ha Ha Ha!
If anyone is having issues with the site, please let me know:
jamesbednar at gmail dot com
I’m beginning to think that the HTTP 500 Internal Server errors are due to massive spam-bot attacks on the site. I’m attempting to install additional software to block these attacks, but there is a chance that non-spam users may get blocked as well.
jb
From Reuters:
UBS has exposure to New Century, says secure
Swiss bank UBS (UBSN.VX: Quote, Profile , Research) said it had exposure to troubled United States sub-prime lender New Century Financial (NEW.N: Quote, Profile , Research), becoming the latest European bank to become embroiled in the U.S. mortgage market.
A spokesman for the Swiss bank confirmed the existence of the loan but declined to quantify it. “I can only say the facility is secured,” said the spokesman.
Regulatory filings show that UBS has an exposure of $1.5 billion to New Century. Barclays (BARC.L: Quote, Profile , Research) also has exposure to New Century, according to regulatory filings.
clot(6)
Wait till Kim realizes that he has to pay at least 17K+ in property taxes. I bet he will jog away from the deal. :)
Wait till Kim realizes that he has to pay at least 17+K in property taxes. I bet he will jog away from the deal :)
The big bet that could melt Wall Street
A look at the ‘yen carry trade’ and why so many investors are starting to worry it might unravel.
http://money.cnn.com/2007/03/05/markets/yen_carry/index.htm?postversion=2007030607
Grim (11)-
No doubt UBS & Barclay’s may be feeling some heat…but their exposure to NEW is a gnat bite, compared to the situation in 1990.
The older among us may remember that the future existence of Citi, Chase and Chemical Bank was very much in doubt.
Not to make light of the subprime swamp, but the numbers- at least so far- are not along the lines of the S & L crisis of ’89 or the regional bank failures of the ’90s.
A little more perspective…a 25% mximum potential default rate- within a niche of the entire mortgage market- does not an economic collapse make. The fact remains that the overall mortgage market, of which subprime-Alt A represents only a fraction, is not collapsing.
Heads will roll, equity will be lost, and I still believe there will be a surprise collapse of a major bank that’s caught on the wrong side of this thing. But, it’s not the end of civilization as we know it. There will always be risky borrowers…and bad bankers ready to accomodate them. The only thing that differs from crisis-to-crisis are the forms those loans take.
Need help here guys. Got a family member who read some book about investing in the stock market.
ANyhow to make a long story short, he plans to do a massive cahs out re-fi,a nd take the proceeds and invest them int he market,a s the book instructs (sound like some late night info mercial thing)
Anyhow I tried to caution that this was not a good idea, but soemhow because I do not own a house at the moment (I used to), I do not seem to have any credibility. He really plans tg go ahead with this;I am trying to stop a train wreck.
Yet another warning on unwinding carry trade
>>
Goldman Sachs warns of ‘dead bodies’ after market turmoil
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/main.jhtml?xml=/money/2007/03/06/cngold06.xml
Subprime `Spillover’
“The spillover from the subprime market is only going to continue,” said Kiesel, who predicts the housing market’s deterioration will prompt consumers to curb spending, the economy to slow and the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates.”
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aA3.lujabUSM
#16 – does he/she have a basement? rope?
kodiak (4) & Clotpoll –
I have to agree. 2 Bedroom condo in Bombay costs $200,000 where average salaries is most likely only $10,000. We are definitely better compared to most emerging market big cities, and I am sure the same is true with developed countries, though may not be as bad as 20 times income.
But again, you can’t buy a house in NNJ based on condition in other parts of the world. You have to see that in US dynamics. In most other countries, you don’t have many options. In US, you have atleast 20 major and 100 mid-size cities. In mature US market, the historical income to house price ratio does come in balance quickly.
NJ Property Taxes…I would even pay today’s prices, but Taxes are the one little bit whoch is killing me. it is like even if you worked hard on paying off your mortgage, you still going to have you monthly payments increase every years…
when will people in NJ realize that Property taxes here are unsustainable???
TO comment on “Some People’s” here comments on NJ s a great state: do you know that NJ ranked #2 in JOb Dissatisfaction after NY and PA???
And so called crappy states with a lot smaller salaries such as MN, CO, NM, AZ, ID ranked amongst top 10 in job satisfaction….???
Too much for not having good jobs there and great jobs here…
But I general I am a lot more worried right now about general state of our economy than about housing….
US is turning into a thirld world country right now….
It is happening now not in the future.
Of course NJ is already very similar to some of those countries…… So no need to worry here.
P.S. Every smart economist in the last 5 years was saying this:
““We’ve created an unproductive asset,’’ says Joe Carson, director of global economic research at AllianceBernstein. “A house doesn’t produce income.’’”
jb #10 –
Have you thought about blocking international IP addresses?
http://www.webmasterworld.com/forum30/27830.htm
Another slice of real life in the RE world:
I have a mortgage broker in one of my office spaces. Sometimes, he leaves his door open, and I can hear what’s going on in his room.
Yesterday, I could hear him explaining to someone on the phone that there was no company available to extend the kind of loan he wanted.
This particular lender doesn’t do much subprime, but I know he used Fremont from time to time, so I went in and asked him what that borrower’s profile was.
He explained that the borrower had come to him 18 months ago- with FICOs under 500 and a 2 y/o BK- looking for 100% financing (surprise!). At the time, he explained to the prospect that no lender was going to finance 100% to anyone matching his credit profile and suggested the borrower get his FICOs above 500, at which point, prevailing guidelines would’ve put him in the running for 100% financing.
Well, yesterday, that borrwer had called back- full of pride- having finally gotten his FICOs over 500. But now, there’s nobody left to make the loan.
I asked the broker if there are still any outfits left to take on risk like this. He grinned, shook his head and said “yeah…there’s one or two left…out on Staten Island. Their terms are a little rough, though (chuckle, chuckle).”
Burst (16)-
Refer him to Gamblers’ Anonymous.
“Wait till Kim realizes that he has to pay at least 17+K in property taxes. I bet he will jog away from the deal :)” and
“They’re afraid lenders may be unaware of the risks these loans pose to financial institutions. ”
2 points of ‘global perspective’ on the article and these comments.
1)In most westernized countries your wealth/assets are taxed. So, if its a house, or cash, or stocks, or whatever… you pay depending on your total assets value between 0.5 – 4%… so ‘american HIGH real estate tax’ to many non-americans is simply ‘local asset taxes’ that are allocated BETTER because they go to services in their county/district/state.
2) when you get a mortgage in almost any EU country you get a paper you must sign that simply looks like a printed excel spreadsheet that litteraly puts the amount of every payment you will make (or the range it could be in if adjustable) and the date it will be due for the length of the loan. it takes the ‘hocus pocus’ out of it for the ‘uninformed’…and provides simply transparency. but then again, you need between a 10 and 20% deposit in most other countries to qualify to buy a property, so they must be too old school…
curiousd
AL: I am actually of different opinion on Property Taxes. I think higher property taxes actually reduced the price rise little bit during 2000-2005 boom. NJ is not top 10 high boom market in nation, place like VA, FL, NV, CA etc… were. In all of these places taxes are very low compared to NJ, hence as Interest rates went down, prices went up much higher. Eventually the folks in those market end up paying same proportionate PITI amount for housing.
Regarding your comment on Third word, I hope you see this as positive development, rather then negative one. With more diversity, you have more tolerance and acceptance in society. Also, with globalization, the states like NJ will benefit more as people with global knowledge are more likely to be living in NJ than in Idaho.
Have you thought about blocking international IP addresses?
Yahoo doesn’t allow me to use/modify an .htaccess file.
jb
#22 “Have you thought about blocking international IP addresses?”
you’ll lose me. >:(
I’ve been know to blog from international destinations as well, I’d lose myself.
jb
#21 “US is turning into a thirld world country right now….”
another ‘global perspective’…
you’re wrong.
#26 NJ Was definitely up there in the boom market of 2000-through 05, and as far as property taxes keeping prices lower, then athey would have been, is mistaken;it makes no sense.
jb, for what it’s worth –
http://help.yahoo.com/help/us/store/risk/risk-17.html
looks like yahoo small business provides some interface to block IPs. I could be wrong.
for curiousd (and other guys abroad), just white-list their specific IP ;-)
Anyhow, I haven’t seen any more 500s.. so perhaps the bots have gone away.
bergenbubbleburst: Well I have to take back. NJ was the 10th on the list. Here is the list of 5 year percent appreciation (from 2000-2005) sorted by descending order.
District of Columbia (DC) 127.05
California, (CA) 117.29
Hawaii, (HI) 109.18
Florida, (FL) 107.24
Nevada, (NV) 103.64
Maryland, (MD) 99.03
Rhode Island (RI) 98.81
Arizona, (AZ) 89.39
New Jersey (NJ) 85.92
Source: http://www.ofheo.gov/media/pdf/4q05hpi.pdf
RI was surprise in the list though.
curiousd (25)
“In most westernized countries your wealth/assets are taxed. So, if its a house, or cash, or stocks, or whatever… you pay depending on your total assets value between 0.5 – 4%… ”
Kim owns a condo in South Korea for about $600K. Are you saying that Kim has to be pay between .5 to 4% on 600K every year as asset tax?
for what it’s worth
I’d need to upgrade my account to the $30/mo “Merchant” package to get access to those tools. No way I’m paying them $360 a year for substandard hosting and access to what are typically “basic” tools.
jb
high property taxes are a fact of life in this part of the country. you can’t get away from them just like you can’t get away from traffic. if you don’t like it you have to move.
Reachard our property tax police.
bear/34
not sure really. i know most euro-countries pretty well..have no idea about korea (except that it is constantly listed in Forbes as in the top ten WORST places to do business. asset/taxing…no idea. just brining another perspective on it.
I downloaded OFHEO’s HPI Java Tool. This one plotted 1yr & Quarterly changes from 1976 for NJ MSA. Look at the chart at following link for NJ Newark/Union MSA. Very interesting chart.
http://www.geocities.com/skgala/hpi_nj_msa.JPG
You can clearly see how current boom/bust is similar and different one from the one in 79 & 87.
Different in the sense of amount of time it took to reach the peak. In both earlier instance, peak was reach within in 2 years, versus now when boom kept on going for almost 6 to 8 years.
Similar in the sense that once the peak was reached in all 3 instances, the rate of fall seems very similar in percentages.
I think the simple technical analysis would say a good buy point is when YOY line crosses QOQ line from bottom. By that measure, we have have a some wait for a good buy point.
From Shiller’s BW article,
Are low long-term mortgage rates supporting the market?
Mortgage rates have been falling for 25 years and when I look at the whole history of mortgages and home prices, I don’t see a strong relationship. The psychology is more important. In the late ’70s, interest rates rose to double-digit levels, and there was still a housing boom.
Interest Rate doesn’t actually relate to home prices.
This is very interesting. Most realtors still tell me that as long as rates are low, home prices will be very expensive.
CC
BBB #16,
Let me personally extend a warm welcome to a new player in the game. This is a brilliant strategy, but to really make his expected killing he needs to use the refi proceeds to go long, ON MARGIN, at this historic buying opportunity.
Maybe you can help him with a definition of margin buying. Of course, if he happens to still be bearish, he might want to go short on margin. Just ask him where to ship the body.
LOL
And from what I said many times before based on the 85% increase in a five year span, a home in year 2000 that went for 456K should be selling for roughly $640K today based on historical economic fundamentals.
But, alas, the asking price is somewhere in the range of $850K (that’s $850,000). Say it with me: EIGHT HUNDRED FIFTY THOUSAND DOLLARS. Oofa, I just got the shivers.
From Bloomberg:
Pending Sales of Existing Homes in U.S. Fell 4.1% in January
Fewer Americans signed contracts to buy previously-owned homes in January, suggesting lingering weakness in the housing market.
An index of signed purchase agreements fell 4.1 percent, the National Association of Realtors said today in Washington. The index was 8.9 below the year-earlier level.
Today’s report, along with recent ones showing declines in new home sales and mortgage applications during January, suggest any housing recovery will be gradual. January’s weakness follows a jump in home resale contracts during December, prompted in part by unseasonably warm weather, economists said.
Housing is “really pretty stagnant right now and if you try to get away from the weather impact in the home sales data, that’s what you see,” Kevin Harris, chief economist at Informa Global Markets in New York, said before the report.
The index fell to 108.7 in January after rising a revised 4.5 percent in December to 113.3. A year earlier, the January index was 119.3.
Economists projected the index would drop 1.2 percent after an originally reported 4.9 percent increase in December, according to the median of 19 forecasts in a Bloomberg News survey. Estimates ranged from a drop of 3.5 percent to a gain of 3 percent.
Richard Says:
March 6th, 2007 at 9:55 am
high property taxes are a fact of life in this part of the country. you can’t get away from them just like you can’t get away from traffic. if you don’t like it you have to move.
I have to agree to Richard. Westchester, LI and NNJ have high taxes. The only places don’t have high taxes in NYC Metro area is the outer boroughs and Rockland County.
It is what it is. Sad but true.
Higher taxes don’t necessary equal better service. gov’t @ town/county/state level know ppl here can afford it and they keep bringing it up.
CC
#44 Rockland County has incredibly high taxes. I think it’s in the top 10 for the country (on the list that just came out).
ok, back to lurking mode.
From Bloomberg:
U.S. Jan. Factory Orders Fall 5.6%; Fall 2.9% Ex-Transport
Orders placed with U.S. factories declined by the most in more than six years in January, reflecting weakness in manufacturing as companies worked off bloated inventories.
Factory orders fell 5.6 percent after a 2.6 percent increase in November that was larger than previously reported, the Commerce Department said today in Washington. Excluding transportation equipment such as Boeing Co. jets, bookings fell 2.9 percent after rising 2.3 percent.
Automakers and construction-related companies are slashing inventories they accumulated last year after overestimating demand in a slowing economy. Inventory reductions, together with a decline in capital-goods orders, may be a drag on growth this quarter, economists said.
“Manufacturing is getting hammered by the housing recession and the big adjustment in the auto sector,” Nariman Behravesh, chief economist at Global Insight Inc. in Lexington, Massachusetts, said before the report. “The auto adjustment will wind down in the next quarter or two. Housing will take a little longer.”
CC: This is very interesting. Most realtors still tell me that as long as rates are low, home prices will be very expensive.
That is completely BS. As you mentioned, Boom can happen with rising rates and Bust can happen in falling rates (see 89 to 92).
RE Boom & Bust has significantly more Psychological factors involved for the simple reason that we all are emotionally attached to house we live in. It is considered pride and we like to show off. The peer pressure is what makes us buy bigger and expensive real estate. The boom happens when folks realize they can not afford house they want in booming market, and bid higher and higher to meet the demand from peer pressure.
Yes, I agree with Richard also, the property taxes are horrible and they will only get worse without any hope of stopping it. We have absolutely no control over it.
But, we can influence house prices if enough people would take a stand and outright refuse to buy at these prices. The question is, how do you convince the majority to wait.
But, we can influence house prices if enough people would take a stand and outright refuse to buy at these prices. The question is, how do you convince the majority to wait.
Looking at the state outmigration patterns over the last few years, you’ve got to wonder if homeowners are already “voting with their feet”.
jb
#16 Bergen Bubble
How long does he plan to keep the money invested in the market? Furthermore what will his term and rate be on the refi?
JB, only time will tell. Somebody’s gotta make noise, it might as well be us.
the higher taxes go, the more strain it will put on families finances. you won’t see a mass exodus but you will see a slow bleed. jim mentions such a pattern above. i have little faith in our elected officials to do anything about it. it’s not just them doing something, it’s a systemic problem that would take many years and a lot of shared pain even if everyone agreed on a course.
http://www.pimco.com/LeftNav/Featured+Market+Commentary/FF/2007/GCBF-+March+2007.htm
The ongoing meltdown in the sub-prime mortgage market would not matter, except for those directly involved, except that it marks the unraveling of Ponzi finance units that, on the margin, were the plankton of the bubbling property sea of recent years. As the bubble was forming, riding on first-time homebuyers with first-time access to credit on un-creditworthy terms, and first-time speculators riding the same with visions of bigger first-time fools to take them out, all looked well. But as Minsky warned, stability is ultimately destabilizing, as those who require perpetual asset price appreciation to make book are forced to sell to make book. Such is reality presently in the U.S. residential property market, which has flipped from a sellers’ market on the wings of buyers with exotic mortgages to a buyers’ market of only the creditworthy.
This state of affairs need not produce a U.S. recession. But it does unambiguously render any given stance of Fed policy more restrictive: a tightening of credit supply based on underwriting terms means that any given policy rate will elicit reduced effective demand for credit. And that’s the stuff of seriously easier monetary policy to come. Just as mortgage demand seemed inelastic to rising short rates when availability was riding relaxed terms, so too will demand seem inelastic to falling short rates when availability faces the headwind of restrictive terms.
It may be a while before the Fed accepts and recognizes this, waiting for these Minsky style debt-deflation dynamics to become evident in broader measures of the economy’s health, notably job creation. But make no mistake: A Minsky Meltdown in the most important asset in most Americans’ asset portfolio is not a minor matter. Bill Gross’ Plankton Theory ain’t just a theory, but a reality
>>
In short, fed cutting rates will not help housing recovery.
http://www.pimco.com/LeftNav/Featured+Market+Commentary/FF/2007/GCBF-+March+2007.htm
The ongoing meltdown in the sub-prime mortgage market would not matter, except for those directly involved, except that it marks the unraveling of Ponzi finance units that, on the margin, were the plankton of the bubbling property sea of recent years. As the bubble was forming, riding on first-time homebuyers with first-time access to credit on un-creditworthy terms, and first-time speculators riding the same with visions of bigger first-time fools to take them out, all looked well. But as Minsky warned, stability is ultimately destabilizing, as those who require perpetual asset price appreciation to make book are forced to sell to make book. Such is reality presently in the U.S. residential property market, which has flipped from a sellers’ market on the wings of buyers with exotic mortgages to a buyers’ market of only the creditworthy.
This state of affairs need not produce a U.S. recession. But it does unambiguously render any given stance of Fed policy more restrictive: a tightening of credit supply based on underwriting terms means that any given policy rate will elicit reduced effective demand for credit. And that’s the stuff of seriously easier monetary policy to come. Just as mortgage demand seemed inelastic to rising short rates when availability was riding relaxed terms, so too will demand seem inelastic to falling short rates when availability faces the headwind of restrictive terms.
It may be a while before the Fed accepts and recognizes this, waiting for these Minsky style debt-deflation dynamics to become evident in broader measures of the economy’s health, notably job creation. But make no mistake: A Minsky Meltdown in the most important asset in most Americans’ asset portfolio is not a minor matter. Bill Gross’ Plankton Theory ain’t just a theory, but a reality.
>>
In short, Fed rate cut will not help bounce back of exotic credit.
jb,
my post just vanished.
#48: I see it from both sides. Some of us really need/want a house right now. If you have children and want to use public school, it makes sense to be settled in a district before they start (or soon afterward). It doesn’t seem possible to dissuade people from buying. However, if word got out that it was acceptable to lowball these prices we might get somewhere. But the “seller will be offended” myth is still very much believed by the majority of people I talk to. And because most people still need the services of agents to access mls information and view houses, we have to go through these middlemen who tell us we are crazy when we make such offers. It makes an already unnerving process all the more so when the person submitting your offer has basically said you have no chance at the outset.
jb,
I wasn’t able to see my post after it got posted. It took almost 5 minutes to show up.
I wasn’t able to see my post after it got posted. It took almost 5 minutes to show up.
Artifact of the new caching software. I’m trying to see if caching can reduce some of the server load as a quick-fix to stop the 500 Server Errors.
jb
We’ve already hear a bit on this topic. From Bloomberg:
GM May Take Almost $1 Billion Charge for Mortgages, Lehman Says
General Motors Corp., the world’s largest automaker, may take a charge of almost $1 billion to cover bad mortgage loans made by its former home-lending unit, according to a Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. analyst.
Residential Capital LLC relies on loans to people with poor or limited credit records or high debt burdens, for more than three-quarters, or $57 billion, of its business, Lehman Brothers analyst Brian Johnson wrote in a research report. Delinquency rates on such subprime loans made last year are at a record high.
Detroit-based GM, struggling to reverse more than $13 billion in losses over the last seven quarters through Sept. 30, delayed filing its fourth-quarter and full-year earnings to as late as March 16 in order to restate results. The company in November sold a 51 percent stake in General Motors Acceptance Corp. for $14.4 billion to a group led by Cerberus Capital Management LP. Residential Capital, or ResCap, is part of GMAC.
The subprime market is “a key factor to see what the earnings power of GM’s remaining interest in GMAC is going to be,” Johnson said in an interview.
GM may have to spend as much as $950 million to make up the difference between the original value of the finance unit and any losses for subprime loans made by ResCap, he said.
I agree with PossibleBuyer- you’re never going to stop transactions completely, nor would you want to – it’s unhealthy for the economy because it would mean there are other things wrong. And I hate the middlemen – I think in negotiations they are useless, at least for me, with a husband who is an excellent negotiator.
I have to say that I am still on cloud 9 after walking away yesterday from that deal. I feel REALLY good about it. I am pretty convinced that we are dealing with a “I’m not going to GIVE the house away ” seller (let’s see, pay 300 for it, make 450K profit – gosh, it would SUCK to make only 430!). My husband’s observation was more astute perhaps – they have terrible decorating taste – they are obviously not sophisticated people with a lot of financial acumen. Either way, based on the history of the listing, he may be right, and I am more suspicious that they really will be riding it down, while others sell.
Possiblebuyer,
I agree with you 100%. People are stuck between a rock and a hard place. It’s frustrating. It’s with kids in mind that I think about these decisions. The alternative is to rent in a good school district until the resources and timing is right. The other option is to buy in a more affordable area and have the kids go to a private or parochial school.
It’s not easy and I really feel for people but by all means, do not let a middle man preach the gospel to you. Do your homework, be pragmatic, save consistently and make sound decisions.
IMO if you work in NYC, want a decent commute and want to live in NJ w/kids your choices are grim. you either choose the ghetto or a high priced town. seems aside from some towns along the hudson river everything is ghetto until you get out to say south orange on midtown direct.
Any ideas on how this might impact Wall Street employment?
Goldman, Lehman Most Vulnerable to Credit Decline, Hintz Says
Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. would be hardest-hit on Wall Street if the slump in subprime mortgages becomes a credit crisis like the one that followed Russia’s debt default in 1998, Sanford C. Bernstein & Co. analyst Brad Hintz said.
In that “worst-case scenario,” pretax profit at Goldman, the world’s biggest securities firm, would tumble 24 percent, Hintz, who’s based in New York, estimated in a note to investors today. Lehman Brothers, the Wall Street’s fourth-largest firm, would suffer a 20 percent drop in pretax earnings, he said.
…
Hintz estimated that in a broad credit-market decline Morgan Stanley’s pretax profit would drop 12 percent and Merrill’s would fall 8 percent.
“But this is a worst-case scenario and we remain hopeful that the sub-prime mortgage-backed securities pullback will continue to be constrained to the MBS market and the related collateralized debt obligation market,” he wrote. “As long as the MBS pullback continues to be limited solely to the sub-prime market, the impact on the brokers is manageable.”
#61 Richard No your choices are not grim as you say, you just have to be patient while this market corrects, happended before, and its happening now.
The fundamentals always remain the same.
James Bednar Says:
March 6th, 2007 at 11:15 am
Any ideas on how this might impact Wall Street employment?
Goldman, Lehman Most Vulnerable to Credit Decline, Hintz Says
I know during LTCM crisis, Salomon’s entire emerging debt trading desk was asked to leave and fired subsequently. And that was it, however LTCM didn’t affect much of Salomon/Citi’s bottom line. Don’t know how would this affect Goldman/Lehman’s bottom line.
CC
Very interesting Charts,
http://www.geocities.com/skgala/hpi/hpi_charts.htm
Well, After I plotted one chart, I got more curious. So I plotted charts for all top 10 areas that OFHEO had based on 5 year boom between 2000 to 2005.
Few things that comes out quickly, is Bust is definitely fastest in the areas where Boom was also high. No news, but just confirmation.
The new thing I learned is by looking at Hawaii chart. That place had 120% appreciation in one quarter in 82. I wonder that’s where Richard Kiosaki made his millions.
RE would be the largest purchase decision for most of us. For such a decision, one should at least wait till percentage change starts in upward trend. Most downturn have not lasted more then 2 to 3 years. IMO, that much wait is not too long.
missed this from yesterday….we are at “revulsion”…..sounds like a restating of opinions that have been previously raised here….note, this article kind of trails off and stops before really providing a punchline
WSJ
AHEAD OF THE TAPE
By JUSTIN LAHART
Housing Bubble: Toil and Trouble Follows Pattern
March 5, 2007; Page C1
So much for once burned, twice shy.
Seven years after the stock-market bubble busted, the troubles in the housing market look strikingly familiar. In fact, everything is going according to the textbook — the textbook in this case being Charles Kindleberger’s 1978 classic, “Manias, Panics, and Crashes.”
Mr. Kindleberger found speculative bubbles tended to follow similar patterns. First, there is some “displacement” — such as the development of the Internet or a prolonged period of ultralow interest rates — that radically improves the outlook for some area of the economy. People take advantage of the opportunity, fueling a boom that is fed by progressively easier access to cash. At the height of the bubble, there’s “pure speculation”; assets are bought to quickly sell them again at a higher price — day-trading in 2000, condo-flipping more recently, tulips long ago.
The speculation eventually runs its course and in the ensuing downturn, swindles come to light. That leads to “revulsion.” Lines of credit dry up and regulators, Sarbanes-Oxley style, rush to shut the door of the empty cow barn. In the worst cases, selling panics follow.
Revulsion is where housing appears to be.
Early February, the Federal Reserve reported a sharp increase in the number of banks tightening mortgage-lending standards. On Tuesday, Freddie Mac — whose main business is repackaging mortgages into mortgage-backed securities — said it was tightening standards on purchases of risky, subprime mortgages. On Friday, banking regulators proposed stricter mortgage guidance.
As Mr. Kindleberger showed, financial shenanigans in housing are coming to light. A jump in “early defaults,” where borrowers stop paying shortly after taking out their mortgage, stems in part from questionable lending practices.
Jon Goodman, a Boulder, Colo., real-estate lawyer with Frascona, Joiner, Goodman & Greenstein, says he has seen dozens of cases where buyers tried to buy a house for more than it was worth in return for a kickback from the seller. The buyer might pay $500,000 for a house that is really worth $450,000 and get $50,000 back from the seller. The kickback gets used as a kitty to make mortgage payments while the buyer waits for someone to buy the house for more than he paid. Works great in a rising market; horribly in a falling one.
It is too early to know the extent of such gimmickry or how tough lenders and regulators will get. But it isn’t too early to wonder why, so shortly after the 2000 bust, a bubble cycle repeated itself.
In early 2004, then-Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan said he thought “we don’t have to worry much about the emergence of bubbles for a while because it takes a number of years for the trauma of the collapse to wear off.” Back then, of course, the Fed’s ultralow interest rates were helping to feed the housing boom.
Mr. Kindleberger documented that bubbles frequently come not long after the previous bust. The 1800s included repeated bubbles in canal and rail securities in the U.S. and abroad. Housing wasn’t the only place where low rates bred an easy money culture. Emerging-market stocks and bonds, corporate debt and buyouts come to mind.
# Richard Says:
March 6th, 2007 at 11:06 am
IMO if you work in NYC, want a decent commute and want to live in NJ w/kids your choices are grim. you either choose the ghetto or a high priced town. seems aside from some towns along the hudson river everything is ghetto until you get out to say south orange on midtown direct.
I agree with you. I also notice another phenomena, I notice ppl start moving farther away. I know a lot of NY commuters live in Middlesex/Monmounth/Mecer counties – E Brunswick, Marlboro, Manalapan, Plainsboro, Princeton……………ppl are tolerating longer commute and scarifying family life for a decent suburb home in this area.
CC
#50 Commercial: i do not have all the details, but he is apparently going to follow the strategy as laid out in this book. I am trying to find out more details, but it is a delicate topic, as it is family, and as I say since I no longer own a hosue, my credibility has declined, across the board,
James Bednar Says:
March 6th, 2007 at 8:50 am
If anyone is having issues with the site, please let me know:
The moderator is a friggin’ egomaniac. Other than that, eh…maybe you can spruce the place up a bit
#66 The down turn last time in NJ lasted 10 years.
$48 Gary there are things we can do as far as property taxes, but the majority of people choose not to do it, and the first thing that can be doen is to vote.
Need help here guys. Got a family member who read some book about investing in the stock market.
ANyhow to make a long story short, he plans to do a massive cahs out re-fi,and take the proceeds and invest them int he market,a s the book instructs
I wish him the best of luck, that is one hell of a gamble.
jb
Rockland County taxes are far cheaper than Bergen County, just look at the difference when you cross over from BC into Pearl River and Orangeburg.
#43 JB Lingering weakness?
I’m slowly making some progress with moving the site.
http://njrealestatereport.com (this is a temporary address, you can play, but don’t bother trying to use the new URL just yet)
Now I’ve got to figure out how to move 30,000+ comments.
jb
James Bednar Says:
March 6th, 2007 at 9:35 am
I’ve been know to blog from international destinations as well, I’d lose myself.
jb
Is there a downside to this?
http://www.taxfoundation.org/publications/show/1888.html
in 2005 the average taxes in rockland werent that much less than those in bergen. rockland taxes can be just as crazy as bergen in some areas (specifically clarkstown, not orangetown).
unmoderate moderator
#79 My cousin has a 3 bed 2 bath house in PR, on little less than a 1/4 acre, nice quiet street, taxes last year 6,800.
Same house in my town in BC 10k+
#80 – im just saying on average it’s not that much cheaper. bergen county has some towns where it’s less too (montvale, paramus). you can base the whole county on one house. Rockland was still the #6 county in the country for property taxes!
From the Charlotte Observer..
Charlotte lender closing subprime unit
Charlotte-based AmeriTrust Mortgage Co. is shuttering its unit that make loans to borrowers with spotty credit, joining a host of lenders pulling out of market roiled by burgeoning loan defaults.
AmeriTrust told employees about the decision Monday after the company learned Seattle-based thrift Washington Mutual Inc. had stopped providing the company financing for its subprime loans, President John Owens said on Tuesday.
From Reuters:
U.S. foreclosure brokers traffic in despair
The red Victorian home on Maple Street has a wounded, abandoned look: trash litters the yard, the pool has frozen over, old clothes are strewn across dirty floors. Renovations are half-done.
On a window hangs a “for sale” sign posted by a broker who specializes in foreclosures, which have hit record levels in Massachusetts and surged nationwide after a housing slowdown that put millions of “subprime” borrowers — those with poor credit records who pay higher interest — at risk of default.
“This is normally the way we get them. Totally beaten up,” said Marc Charney, president of CharneyRealEstate.com, as workers cleared debris and prepared the 2,180-sq-ft (203 sq metre), 10-room home in Northborough, Massachusetts for sale.
“There’s a real pattern that you’re seeing with people who are foreclosed. They over-leverage themselves by getting an interest only-loan or some sort of an adjustable rate mortgage. They take that money and plan an addition on the house.
“They start the addition but then realize they want to buy a car, or a sister needs money or something like that. So the work is half done. But you’re out of money and lose your job, or you get divorced and can’t make payments,” he said.
“This is a dirtier side of the business because you’re trafficking in despair and loss.”
#81 Lurker, I understand, and I know Montvale and Paramus are cheaper, but I belive that Parts of Rockland are on a whole cheaper than BS, by a substanial margin.
The example I mentioned is common place in PR, it is the norm and not the exception. They got a sizeable increase in 2005, but it was teh first increase in a 5 years!
I do not think there are any BC towns that can claim they have not raised taxes for 5 years.
just look at the link i posted before… in 2005 the average in rockland isnt that much lower than bergen, that’s all im saying. it’s certainly not known as a low property tax area. all of clarkstown, which is a big chunk of the county, has insane taxes, not to mention parts of ramapo.
100% of topic, but Mr. Bednar has really gotten me into Regina Spektor after posting her youtube video in another thread! Her voice is amazing!
Hey good news,
Seems I won’t have to worry about slow real estate market,lack of commissions or when I should actually buy a house myself. I got a personal special invitation to……
” Creating Wealth the Trump Way” I will be his personal guest to hear the real story on Trump wealth creation from his daughter Ivanka, and also I will be trained by Four (4) yes that’s right 4! self-made multi millionaire experts.
I will also be recieving a complimentary edition of “TRUMP” Think like a Billionaire!
I’m so excited I can’t wait. I am going out now to charge some really expensive items, why wait to spend the money that will be flowing my way!! Its at the Meadowlands on March 28th, I won’t even have to pay interest on my purchases…. I’m in the money I’m in the money.
KL
Or maybe I’ll just scalp these tickets at the door I know their worth a small fortune.
Hey KL,
Congrats! We got an invite too, except it’s from Donald Trump Jr. whoever he is. In Parsipanny, no less, I think maybe even the hotel that hosted the recent blog drinking event.
We’re such high rollers, we even got comp tickets.
Is this the sign of market top, bottom or somewhere in between?
Man ! you guys got Trump Jr’s invite too?? And I thought I was special.
Anyway, I told him that he would have to pay me to listen to him. As far as Trump senior, I wouldn’t listen to him even if he did pay me !!
KL, got a set of those tickets as well.
Did you see the new topic Trump added to the schedule?
“How to Make a Fortune Next Year in the Bankruptcy Market”
Gotta love it.
libby guilty :)
Off-topic:
I priced out health care coverage in NNJ for an employee, spouse and children (i.e. family). Current pricing is at least $15,000, and the type of coverage that is familiar to many of us (reasonable co-pays, low out-of-pocket max, prescription coverage, maybe some eye and teeth) would be in the neighborhood of $20,000 a year. Not a bad perk for someone who pays nothing out of pocket for this type of benefit.
Public sector workers are making a killing.
This just in:
bergenbubble [16],
Tell your cousin to lie down and chill out.
This worked great back in the mid-late 90’s when you could buy any s*it IPO and make a a ton. If your cousin knows the next pet.com, tell him to give me a call. I’m always venturing for new ideas.
http://www.amazon.com/Stock-Investing-Dummies-Paul-Mladjenovic/dp/0764554115
More, from the same WP article:
“Public sector workers are making a killing.”
Chi,
I hear you.
The last firm I was with, it cost $1,500 a month for the family plan(medical and dental).
JB, stuck in moderation, no links…
International RE Boom !!!
http://www.financialexpress-bd.com/index3.asp?cnd=3/7/2007§ion_id=4&newsid=54647&spcl=no
Bernanke: Fannie and Freddie may threaten economy
Fed chief says investments held by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac should be ‘anchored’ to their affordable housing mission
http://money.cnn.com/2007/03/06/news/economy/bernanke.reut/index.htm?postversion=2007030614
Bernanke also said that unlike fully private firms, GSEs face little or no market discipline from their debt holders because of a belief among market participants that the U.S. government “will back these institutions under almost any circumstances.”
http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/070306/bernanke.html?.v=3
“Legislation to strengthen the regulation and supervision of GSEs is highly desirable, both to ensure that these companies pose fewer risks to the financial system and to direct them toward activities that provide important social benefits,” Bernanke told the banking gathering.
“An index of signed purchase agreements fell 4.1 percent, the National Association of Realtors said today in Washington. The index was 8.9 below the year-earlier level.”
I thought we’d already hit bottom!
His remarks come as worries about risky mortgages are making investors jittery. Those fears contributed to last week’s worldwide stock meltdown, where the Dow Jones industrials suffered a gut-wrenching 416-point plunge.
I don’t know this is true statement. I don’t think US Subprime market, which is a small percentage of total mortgage market, can cause the whole worldwide stock meltdown. This may be a story that just gets linked to happening in financial markets.
SG,
yen carry trade.
i-banks……..no problems
WSJ
CREDIT MARKETS
Subprime Wreckage Entices Bargain Hunters Some Wall Street Banks Bet Big on a Recovery In Risky-Loan Game
By MICHAEL HUDSON, JAMES R. HAGERTY and KATE KELLY
March 6, 2007; Page C1
[edit]
Wall Street firms already have tentacles in almost every corner of the risky market. They bankroll subprime lenders with credit, package and sell bonds backed by their loans, and operate their own subprime lending shops. New Century alone had $8.5 billion in credit lines with four investment banks as of late last year — Credit Suisse Group, Morgan Stanley, Bank of America Corp. and UBS AG. In the past year, such firms have made a bigger push in this area, buying more subprime lenders.
[edit]
Such moves are pretty risky, analysts say. “Some investment banks will discover that it’s harder to operate a mortgage-production business than they thought,” says Morgan Stanley analyst Kenneth Posner.
Over the past year or so, investment banks had a great run, but since Feb. 22, shares of Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc., Bear Stearns, Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and Merrill Lynch — which all have mortgage exposure — are down about 13% each.
Yesterday, Standard & Poor’s downgraded Merrill’s shares to “hold” from “strong buy.” S&P analyst Matthew Albrecht said in an interview, “All the news of subprime defaults coming out and big players in the market saying late-payment rates are going up should cause anybody in the sector to re-evaluate it.”
[edit]
Still, a recent research report by Sanford C. Bernstein & Co. concludes that even if subprime performance gets worse, Bear Stearns and Lehman Brothers would suffer no more than a 4% to 5% reduction in earnings, while Merrill Lynch, Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley would absorb much smaller hits.
[edit]
Big banks could also see less revenue from selling subprime-mortgage-backed securities as fewer bond deals are launched.
A report from S&P says subprime-mortgage bond volume declined by 29% from the fourth quarter of 2005 to the same period in 2006. David Williams, a Morgan Stanley analyst, estimates the downturn in the subprime market could produce earnings hits totaling $2.1 billion for five European banks: Barclays PLC; Credit Suisse; UBS, of Switzerland; Germany’s Deutsche Bank AG; and Royal Bank of Scotland Group PLC.
Many investors and analysts predict that some of the biggest mortgage lenders will emerge stronger as weak rivals are forced out. Ed Groshans, an analyst at Fox-Pitt, Kelton Inc. in New York, predicts that large home lender Countrywide Financial Corp. will gain market share as it has in the wake of past slumps. Less than 10% of Countrywide’s lending business falls below prime quality, and the company began scaling back on the riskiest types of loans more than a year ago, he says.
Other mortgage lenders he thinks will emerge strongly from the current turmoil include Wells Fargo & Co., J.P. Morgan Chase, Citigroup and IndyMac Bancorp Inc.
“Subprime mortgage bonds assembled by Wall Street firms including Bear Stearns & Co. appear more prone to losses than “pure-play” mortgage lenders as the dealers chased higher yields, credit research company CreditSights said late on Monday”
“Bear Stearns also showed higher delinquency rates for so-called Alt-A mortgages, which are loosely defined as loans to prime borrowers that do not meet requirements of prime mortgages, such as full documentation of income.
A call to a Bear Stearns spokeswoman seeking comment was not immediately returned.”
http://today.reuters.com/news/articleinvesting.aspx?view=CN&symbol=&storyID=2007-03-06T194615Z_01_N06413499_RTRIDST_0_USA-SUBPRIME-CREDITSIGHTS-UPDATE-1.XML&pageNumber=0&WTModLoc=InvArt-C1-ArticlePage2&sz=13
Realtor.com Unique visitor counts.
Dec 06 => 3.91M
Nov 06 => 4.76M
Dec 05 => 4.78M
Source: http://www.realtor.org/realtororg.nsf/files/Stat2006_12.pdf/$FILE/Stat2006_12.pdf
I guess not many people are looking for houses in Dec 2006.
“Hedge funds looking to benefit from the interest-rate spread between Japan and world markets have poured substantial amounts of cheap borrowed yen into high-yielding New Zealand bonds; now New Zealand’s central bank is worried that a massive withdrawal of speculative capital could bring the country to the brink of a financial crisis.”
“Given the state of the economy, the central bank warned the value of the New Zealand dollar was too high relative to the underlying fundamentals and that the high level of turnover in foreign exchange and the fixed-interest market was only driven by cyclical speculative demand. A rapid reversal of these transitory fund flows could prove devastating to the economy.”
http://www.forbes.com/markets/2007/03/06/newzealand-carrytrade-unwinding-cx_vk_0306markets15.html
#105: I wanted to add, Whether was too cold or worm (depending on where you live) for buyers to go online in December.
possiblebuyer….how much are you looking to spend on a house? where are you looking? if you don’t mind me asking.
KL (87)-
Did you catch Trump’s announcement earlier this week?
He is not planning on dying…applications for the Mausoleum at Trump National Golf Course have been shelved.
He should look into making better “life extension” arrangements than Ted Williams did. Although…wouldn’t you love to see this guy’s head sunk in a cannister of liquid nitrogen?
“How to Make a Fortune Next Year in the Bankruptcy Market”?????
BWAHHHHHHAAAAAHHHAHHHAH!!!
This will be taught by one of the most unrepentant bankrupts of all time.
I forwarded this to grim.
He will post it if he beleives it is relevent.
WSJ
BUSINESS
By ALAN MURRAY
Mortgage Executive Stands Tall In Wake Of Subprime-Loan Mess
March 7, 2007
If you’re looking for a big winner in the subprime-mortgage meltdown, try Angelo Mozilo.
The take-no-prisoners chief executive of Countrywide Financial sold $142 million of his personal holdings of Countrywide’s stock in the past 14 months — before last week’s news that the delinquency rate on his company’s subprime mortgages was soaring.
Even so, he expects shareholders to be grateful.
Clot [111],
I heard Trump has decided to one up the Splendid Splinter and be hung upside down on the Mar-A-Lago flagpole, when he passses. Retribution to the town for sticking it to him, not allowing him to fly the flag.
Rhymingrealtor,
I just opened my mailbox to find my Trump invite to the East Rutherford extravaganza. I can imagine Ivanka’s wealth creation formula will be brief, “Be born into a rich family”. I love the classy cardboard VIP Special Guest Tickets. I guess they ran out of money gold plating the toilet handles at the Don’s JC building.
Subprime guidance may hit 60% of Countrywide ARMs
http://today.reuters.com/news/articleinvesting.aspx?view=CN&storyID=2007-03-06T214701Z_01_N06410551_RTRIDST_0_COUNTRYWIDE-SUBPRIME-REGULATION.XML&rpc=66&type=qcna
Sixty percent of Countrywide’s customers seeking hybrid adjustable-rate mortgages, or ARMs, such as “2-28” loans would fail to qualify under the guidance that urges lenders weigh the borrower’s ability to repay at the highest possible rate during the life of the loan, Countrywide CFO Eric Sieracki said at a Raymond James Financial Inc. conference in Orlando, Florida.
country wide is currently (since NEW got booted) the 3rd largest subprime lender.
this is hilarious…..
Nouriel Roubini gives his take on the economy and real estate…..I apologize, but you have to fast foward through the first segment to get to Roubini at minute 5:45, and he rants for 5 minutes
http://www.bloomberg.com/avp/avp.htm?clipSRC=mms://media2.bloomberg.com/cache/vZbvLgfe2Gs8.asf
#109 What bubble:
We are looking in the 700-900K range. We have 3 children and would like a 4 bedroom house. But we refuse to pay substantially more than what we think is a “fair” price. Our agent is currently balking at a starting bid of 10% below asking, even though the house is vacant and seller seems motivated. I would prefer to leave the NYC metro area altogether, but our jobs are not transferable.
cf,
If you don’t mind … What are you guys doing? buying, selling or holding?
The yen rose after Japan’s Nikkei 225 Stock Average declined, prompting investors to reduce bets on higher-yielding assets funded by borrowing in the currency, known as carry trades.
Japan’s yen gained against 15 of the 16 most-active currencies as a rally in Japan’s stocks reversed. Losses in equities may force investors to sell shares and repay yen loans, stoking demand for the currency
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aAvySnt4HCHc&refer=home
bear [114],
60%, that’s incredible.
Lil friendly reminder about life.
http://www.slate.com/id/2161304?nav=tap3
ChiFi (116)-
I think when Roubini was locked in a closet at that critcal age when children learn to connect with others on a human level.
No one but Nostradamus knows what the market is going to do.
Doesn’t sound like the Blodget I remember..
jb
JB (123)-
Amazing that crook has the cojones to show his face in public anymore.
A group called “protecting bad teachers” is targeting Newark in its newest campaign. I saw their billboard while driving through Newark today. They charge that the teacher’s union in Newark is so powerful that it is impossible to get rid of bad teachers. While its especially bad in Newark, this is a problem everywhere in NJ.
A few particular examples caught my attention:
30 parents signed a letter saying that their kids were being harmed by [their teacher’s] failure to ever show up to class; continues to draw a $91,275 salary
Resolution: Unresolved
Pretended to be sick from one district job, but showed up to work at another to collect its paycheck; “willfully and intentionally misrepresented her medical condition and medical status to the District”
Resolution: Retired with no consequences seven months after charges were filed
They also discuss the unions efforts to maintain the status quo.
Another interesting factoid…
Newark schools are expensive: In exchange for a low-quality Newark education, the government spent $20,564 per student in the 2004-05 school year, nearly 50% more than the $13,816 spent on the average New Jersey student statewide.
Cory Booker is now involved with Carla Katz. You just can’t make this stuff up:
http://www.nypost.com/seven/03052007/gossip/pagesix/party_stalwarts_pagesix_.htm
She’s the Tokyo Rose of NJ.
Re:RentinginNJ #125
http://www.protectingBadteachers.com
_____________________________________________
“….State teachers pension fund is NOW
underfunded by TEN (10) BILLION –$10,000,000,000…”
_____________________________________________
……corzine is an ASS !!!!!
“Our agent is currently balking at a starting bid of 10% below asking, even though the house is vacant and seller seems motivated.”
Find someone who will listen to you!