Preliminary February sales and inventory data for Northern New Jersey is in..
The first graph plots the unadjusted sales data (closed sales) for the counties listed. Please note the lower bound of the graph, it is set to 1000, not to zero. I do this to emphasize the seasonal nature of the Northern NJ market.
(click to enlarge)
The second graph is another view at the sales data for the full year. Please note that this graph does cross at zero.
(click to enlarge)
The third graph displays only January sales, 2000 to 2007 YOY.
(click to enlarge)
The last graph displays an overlay of Sales and Inventory from 2003 to 2007.
(click to enlarge)
The numbers:
October
Average Sales (2003-2005): 2570
2005 Sales: 2280
2006 Sales: 1867
(Down 18.1% Year Over Year)
November
Average Sales (2003-2005): 2330
2005 Sales: 2135
2006 Sales: 1858
(Down 13.0% Year Over Year)
December
Average Sales (2003-2005): 2671
2005 Sales: 2269
2006 Sales: 2050
(Down 9.7% Year Over Year)
January
Average Sales (2003-2006): 1895
2005 Sales: 2013
2006 Sales: 1579
2007 Sales: 1583
(Up 0.3% Year Over Year)
February
Average Sales (2003-2006): 1536
2005 Sales: 1578
2006 Sales: 1395
2007 Sales: 1364
(Down 2.2% Year Over Year)
I’ll include NJMLS data later in the week.
Caveat Emptor!
James (aka Grim)
Grim,
Can you post sales and inventory by county? I want to see what the market is like in Union.
I just recently made an offer on a house in Union county. The house had been on the market for a year and was recently relisted at 100K below the olp. Well I bid 10% below the new LP, then came up to 95% of the relisted LP, but low and behold someone came out of the blue and snatched it from us. I swore not to get into a bidding war with anyone over a house and just let it go. The dams seller had us at the edge of our seat for 3 days, while he was waiting for this offer. I sent in my lease re-newal form today I guess I will take a year off and see what happens then.
Grim,
Can drink a beer and stand on your head too while you are at it???
Good job on the graphs JB !!
; )
SAS
wow, this web site is running alot better.
SAS
According to JB’s graphs looks like I am right so far…
lamb market.
Could these next 2 months be our crystal ball?
SAS
Another thing…
where is that Jeff Otteau? come out from the woods ol’ Jeffrey. Unless, you and the NYT are doing some more pillow talk.
regards,
SAS
FYI, there’s a new post up over at HousingBubbleCasualty:
“As bad as it is…the worst is yet to come”
http://www.housingbubblecasualty.com
Grim,
I forgot to say, Thanks for putting up these stats. I think its a wonderful service you are providing to people. My prior post asked for too much but did not thank enough.
ck
ck (7)-
What’s a stat chart from Union Co gonna tell you? The only stat that matters in Union Co is the one you just helped create.
Union was actually one of the weakest counties in February.
Sales
Feb 06 – 237
Feb 07 – 208 (Down 12% YOY)
Inventory
Feb 06 – 2434
Feb 07 – 3235 (Up 33% YOY)
(Jan 07 – 3079)
grim: I hate this new site. The layout of njrereport was much better.
From MarketWatch:
All of New Century’s lenders have or plan to halt financing
New Century Financial, in a filing to the Securities and Exchange Commission, said as of March 9, all of the company’s lenders under its short-term repurchase agreements and aggregation credit facilities had discontinued their financing with the company or had notified New Century of their intent to do so, and some have also purported to terminate the company’s servicing rights. New Century has amended an agreement allowing it to pledge $265 million in additional assets for new financing.
Also from the MarketWatch ticker:
New Century gets letters from Credit Suisse, Goldman
New Century: Morgan Stanley discontinuing financing
New Century: Doesn’t expect to get more financing from Citi
Also from MW this morning:
Countrywide Financial cut to underperform at Wachovia
Countrywide Financial Corp. was downgraded to underperform from market perform at Wahovia, which citing weakness in secondary mortgage market liquidity. “While the origination and sale of subprime mortgages represents only a small part of the Countrywide story, we are more concerned that the weakness has spread to other sectors of the residential mortgage market,” Wachovia said. “While we cannot estimate how long conditions are likely to persist, we believe that Countrywide can withstand several months with minimal access to the capital markets,” it added.
Foreclosures May Hit 1.5 Million [ out of a total of 80 million ] as U.S. Housing Bust Deepens
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=ahwzaBwuNaII&refer=home
another 100,000 people in housing-related industries could be fired, and an estimated 100 additional subprime mortgage companies that lend money to people with bad or limited credit may go under
100 more subprime companies + construction workers + home improvement + realtors + financial + IT + …. = just 100K ???
http://calculatedrisk.blogspot.com/2007/02/investment-lags.html
Unless I’m reading this chart wrong [BIA], it seems to me that inventory is rising and sales are dropping further. Yes, the saga continues. Again, the dance continues, just held on a lower floor of the building.
njrebear Says:
March 12th, 2007 at 7:52 am
100 more subprime companies + construction workers + home improvement + realtors + financial + IT + …. = just 100K ???
Can it be that they believe that all construction workers layoffs are completed by now??
New Century: Morgan Stanley discontinuing financing
That’s a big one because Morgan Stanley was rumored to be in discussions to buy NEW.
New down 40% in aftermarket trading
WSJ PAGE ONE
HOME STRETCH
At a Mortgage Lender, Rapid Rise, Faster Fall Wall Street Fueled Growth at New Century;
A Party-Hard Culture
By JAMES R. HAGERTY, RUTH SIMON, MICHAEL CORKERY and GREGORY ZUCKERMAN
March 12, 2007; Page A1
gave this to grim……you can read it, but if you have been following this blog for more than about 3 months, it wouldn’t take very much for you to figure out its contents.
I’m sure he will post it in some form today.
My take….once you’ve seen this pattern once, you can easily see how it gets repeated cycle after cycle. The pattern repeats, because those in its midst are likely reaping a bonanza for the first time, and have a black and white mentality about the “new paradigm” – “you either get it or you don’t”. As always, you cannot get blood from a stone. It is at these times that the Warren Buffets swoop in and lay the groundwork for the next killing. Again, the main virtue that is rewarded during these times is patience. BC Bob made the call over a year ago about how this would play out.
I will not say that I am enjoying these developments. However, I do have some personal and professional pride in my pragmatism, and how it has served me through this period.
OK — lets keep ripping apart the data!!!!!!!!!!!!
http://www.denverpost.com/business/ci_5404197
Puller and Ingram are among seven defendants accused of taking $2.1 million out of 17 phony home sales, mostly in the Villas at Cherry Creek, a gated community bordering Cherry Creek State Park.
The scheme began with Ronald Fontenot and Torrence James, who met in federal prison and became mortgage brokers once released. Puller and Ingram were among their dupes paid to pose as buyers and sign bogus documents.
Former federal prosecutor Anthony Accetta, now a Denver-based fraud investigator, has helped shut down several mortgage companies for fraud over the years.
“The guys at the top know exactly what’s going on,” Accetta said of his experience. “They want the lending standards reduced so they can make as many loans and collect as many fees as they can. … They are the ultimate beneficiaries of the crime. And the crime is making false statements to get a mortgage loan.”
Another subprime market leader, Countrywide Financial, recently reported that 19 percent of its subprime loans were more than 30 days delinquent. That’s nearly one out of five going bad. The company also said it made $41 billion worth of subprime mortgages last year and $46 billion in 2005.
Before news of Countrywide’s widening subprime delinquencies broke, its CEO, Angelo Mozilo, sold $140 million in stock over the past 14 months, The Wall Street Journal reported last week. Mozilo, who co-founded the company 38 years ago, defended a 19 percent delinquency rate.
Do you think this type of fraud did not happen in NJ??
New Century doesn’t have the cash to meet repurchase obligations.
From Bloomberg:
New Century Gets Default Claims, Says It Lacks Cash
New Century Financial Corp., the U.S. mortgage company whose stock plunged 90 percent this year, said lenders claim it’s in default and are demanding accelerated payments. The company said it lacks cash to meet those demands.
Creditors including Morgan Stanley, Citigroup Inc. and Goldman Sachs Group Inc. sent New Century letters last week alleging default, the Irvine, California-based home lender said in a filing today with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. Creditors are demanding New Century repurchase all outstanding mortgage loans financed by them.
“The company and its subsidiaries do not have sufficient liquidity to satisfy their outstanding repurchase obligations,” New Century said in the filing.
I have no idea how the housing-related industries will fare in this thing but speaking from the IT end, I have recruiters calling me all the time asking if I’m interested or if I know someone who is.
They are dying for Systems Analysts, Programmers and Software Analysts. I could probably make more money but I don’t want to job hop. The Info Tech. industry is dying for talent.
Yet another post today from Housing Bubble Casualty:
“Part I – An INSIDE view (LITERALLY) of the subprime industry – New Century”
http://www.housingbubblecasualty.com
gary Says:
I have recruiters calling me all the time asking if I’m interested or if I know someone who is.
That’s good news. I work for Chase B-C mortgage in I.T. It’s been suprisingly quiet over here given all the stuff that’s happening in this industry segment. I’m seriously considering hanging my shingle in another industry. No sense working in the boiler room on a sinking ship.
x-underwriter,
Put your paperwork out there if you must. Systems can’t distinguish the difference between good and bad economic times. :) They have to manipulate data regardless.
In my building, they are building out a number of floors to handle more IT staff. I think companies may be rethinking this outsourcing thing to save money. I had that fear a couple of years ago but not anymore.
New Century Financial Corp. warned in a filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission on Monday that all of its lenders had cut off short-term funding or announced plans to do so. New Century said it would need about $8.4 billion should it be forced to repurchase all outstanding mortgage loans under its financial agreements. The company said it doesn’t have sufficient liquidity to meet its obligations for repurchasing mortgages.
This quote from socalmortgage (thanks Unrealtor) backs up my previous thoughts that plenty of regular “prime” borrowers, especially in expensive neighbourhoods are going to be in trouble too:
http://www.housingbubblecasualty.com/
“Before I get going, I will say this: Alt-A and the A-paper markets are next. Do not think for one second that the lax underwriting was only for the subprime borrowers. The booming market made ‘everybody’ feel good and risk assessment was no longer a priority or focus. Why would it be? That said, just because somebody has a high FICO score does NOT mean they have the income needed to afford their option-arm loan when it resets. You will see the alt-a and prime markets falter in the future. Probably not as bad as the subprime market, but you will see record defaults in alt-a and a-paper loans over the next 12-48 months.”
Just wondering how much of this will play in the condo market? Anyone has any guidance on this? Thanks.
gary Says:I think companies may be rethinking this outsourcing thing to save money.
outsourcing, schmoutsourcing. My experience with it is that, up front on paper, you can save money. What they deliver takes so much time to sort out afterwards its not worth it. They sit there smiling and nodding their heads when you tell them what to do but what comes back is a bad translation.
I’m flying down to Atlanta with my wife over easter to look around. Depending on how that goes, I’ll start looking for something either here or there
Condos and townhouses historically fare worst during a downturn. Two primary reasons for that. The first is that speculation is typically highest in these two forms of housing. Second is fact that units are basically commodities and developments have large numbers of similar units. Because it is so easy to compare a large number of similar units, it’s easy to determine recent comps. The last sale typically sets the market.
Jase Rion,
Take a look at this older piece:
New Jersey Condos – A Look At The Last Crash
jb
New Century Halted
Shares of New Century (NEW – Cramer’s Take – Stockpickr – Rating) were halted early Monday with news pending.
Jase Rion
Single family houses will always be more desireable than condos or townhouses. It’s a privacy issue. Nobody really wants to listen to other people on the other side of the wall or ceiling. Because of that, you will always fare better in a market downturn if you own a single family house. Expect condo prices to go down much harder and faster than anything else over the next few months
x-underwriter,
Either way you’ll win. If you do move to Atlanta though, you’ll be able to buy that nice Center Hall for a fraction of the cost here.
What would you offer for this house?
http://new.gsmls.com/public/detailLst.do?mlsNum=2376524
Listed at $499,900
If you do move to Atlanta though, you’ll be able to buy that nice Center Hall for a fraction of the cost here.
As usual, its a whole family and friends are up here though thing
What would you offer for this house?
Nothing, it’s in ARIP.
jb
#31…BINGO!
My finances are just now getting into shape after my condo purchase in 1987. What did I know, I was from NY and young and just married.
What does ARIP mean?
I visited a few open houses yesterday in Fair Lawn. Not because we are seriously looking, but because we had some time to kill and my wife wanted to see how prices compared to last year.
We looked at 2 POS starter capes and one nicer cape. The POS’s were both offered at $439k and the nicer cape was offered at $459k. While the asking prices were similar to last year, the Realtor® were very clear in that the prices were starting points and were negotiable. The traffic was moderate, but from other people we talked to, it seemed like a lot of browsers casually looking around on a nice Sunday afternoon.
I laughed at the one realtor® though (POS cape). As soon as we walked in, she started with the pressure tactics, saying in a heavy Russian accent, “if you are interested, we will need to put in an offer today before you leave if you have any chance of buying this home”. “This place is priced to move and won’t last long, we already have several offers”.
“OK — let’s keep ripping apart the data!!!!!!!!!!!!”
Agreed. Let us also note that posting THE SAME information from 5 different news sources, does not make the data ‘more true’.
Still, I am quietly appreciating our smug ‘I told you so’…
Attorney review in progress (ARIP)
jb
It is apparent around where I rent that townhouses prices are getting slaughtered. A year ago, I saw 3-4 identical townhouses asking about $285K for a 2 bed, 2 bath. I checked on Realtor.com this weekend and saw 18 of them on the market for identical prices (around $245K).
>>as soon as we walked in, she started with the pressure tactics, saying in a heavy Russian accent,
the newbie realtors will get slaughtered in a marketplace where you actually have to use your brain to make money. the days of making 6% by opening the door are fading fast.
What is this I hear about Halliburton moving the HQ to Dubai?
jb
Please make a note of the temporary address:
http://njrealestatereport.com
I’m going to cut the ties with the existing host this afternoon and the usual link will not function during the move.
jb
Just coming in, Lockridge Grindal Nauen filing class action suit against New Century.
Sorry no link yet.
Al,
Majority of the construction layoffs will start in the next two months.
http://calculatedrisk.blogspot.com/2007/03/employment.html
Interesting email from Option One:
———————————-
Option One Guideline Changes
Throughout our 14 year history, Option One has taken pride in honoring
commitments to our brokers and borrowers. We understand the changes that we
are about to outline are extremely sudden and we apologize for the short
notice and the impact it may have on your business. Our volatile and
challenging business environment demands agility and the ability to make
tough decisions today that will enable us to serve our customers for years
to come.
Therefore, OOMC is making the following changes effective 3/11/07:
Elimination of all loans > 90% LTV/CLTV
NO new submissions of loans with CLTV´s greater than 90% will be accepted,
this includes PreQuals, AU approvals and loans manually underwritten
Elimination of all Loans < 540 FICO NO new submissions FICO scores < 540 will be accepted, this includes PreQuals, AU approvals and loans manually underwritten Score Booster not available OOMC will no longer offer programs for loans > 90% LTV/CLTV and loans < 540 FICO, after 5:01 a.m. (PST) 3/12/07 New guideline changes are applicable to all brokers. PreQual and AU: Both PreQual and AU will be updated with these changes effective 3/12/07 no later than 5:00 p.m. (PST) Although a PreQual or AU approval may be issued, we will NOT honor PreQuals, AU approvals or submissions for these loans on Monday 3/12/07 Pipeline Loans Loans > 90% LTV/CLTV
OOMC will continue to fund loans > 90% LTV/CLTV in the pipeline that are in
Docs Delivered, Docs Received or Docs Reviewed status as of 3/10/07
These loans must fund by 3/30/07
If credit expires, the loans will have to qualify under the new guidelines
If rate expires prior to funding, the loans will be re-priced using the
current rate sheet
Re-draws are allowed and must fund by 3/30/07
For CorOne lenders, OOMC will also purchase loans that have been funded on
the lenders warehouse line on or before 3/12/07
CorOne lender must provide evidence of the warehouse transaction
Pipeline loans > 90% LTV/CLTV that are not in one of these statuses will be
reviewed and a counter offer made (if possible) at 90% LTV
Backpacks loans will be converted to a stand-alone product and a counter
offer (if possible) will be made at 90% LTV
If credit expires, the loan will have to qualify under the new guidelines
All loans subject to prior guideline changes must fund by 3/30/07
Loans < 540 FICO Score OOMC will continue to fund loans < 540 FICO score for all loan statuses There is no funding date restriction on loans < 540 FICO If credit expires, the loan will have to qualify under the new guidelines If rate expires prior to funding, the loan will be re-priced using the current rate sheet Alt A Loans All loans that are currently floating will be reviewed for a possible counter offer at 80% LTV/CLTV. These loans must be locked prior to 3/16/07 for a maximum 15 day lock Any rate locks that expire prior to 3/30/07 will be subject to the new guidelines and not extended for more than 15 days Loans with rate lock expiration dates past 3/30/07 that do not fund prior to the rate lock expiration date will be returned to the broker We look forward to being your mortgage partner and lender of choice. Please contact your Account Executive with questions.
James Bednar Says:
March 12th, 2007 at 11:01 am
What is this I hear about Halliburton moving the HQ to Dubai? jb
Yes – I think the stock trading may also potentially be affected. Speaks volumes about how to walk a sycophanting talk.
(50)
10% down payment is good. All we now need is crackdown on fraudulent appraisals.
JB,
The new server is lightening fast :)
James Bednar Says: #31
March 12th, 2007 at 10:04 am
Since developments often have multiple models I know that pricing will fluctuate by model size. But, how do upgrades factor in? You said “the last sale usually sets the market”, but what if that last sale put in $75k in upgrades and the next put in $0? Or vice versa?
How does this affect pricing by model in the development?
Does anyone want to take a guess as what pecentage of buyers have/will exit the market given the tightened lending standards and speculators running for the exits?
How does this affect pricing by model in the development?
Historically, upgrades will sell at a discount to the original “retail” price of those upgrades. This goes for all types of housing, not just condos and townhouses.
Historically, the recapture rate for upgrades and remodels is low, especially if those upgrades are very expensive, esoteric, or very contemporary (faddish). Go back to remodelling literature in the late ’90s, that should give you a good idea of recapture rates.
The fact that upgrades sold at a premium to retail over the past few years was testament to the mania in the market.
jb
Watch Real estate news !!!
NYSE halted trading of NEW CENTURY
http://video.msn.com/v/us/Money.htm?g=41F3E135-C3A3-4E38-92CA-406D51417057&t=&f=15/64NextTheRealEstateMarketFreeze&p=&fg=
Thanks jb.
From Reuters:
Unwary borrowers snared in US housing “bloodbath”
Renae Gorney sees the human side of the slumping U.S. housing market, the people whose homes are part of the $1 trillion worth of unconventional mortgages that are about to get more expensive.
Gorney, director of loss mitigation at Freedom Foreclosure Prevention Services in Mesa, Arizona, receives more than 300 applications a month from people facing foreclosure, and has little faith in forecasters who say the worst of the housing market downturn is over.
“It’s going to be a bloodbath this year,” she said.
From the Record:
Richer towns foot larger share of regional school bill
You live in Franklin Lakes. Your 16-year-old son is a sophomore at Ramapo High School. His education will cost your town $25,800 this year.
You live in Oakland. Your 16-year-old son is a sophomore at Ramapo High School, too. His education will cost your town $13,000 this year.
Sound unfair? It depends on whom you ask.
For years, a number of mayors and councils have complained that their towns pay thousands of dollars more per student than their partners in regional school districts because of a funding formula that taxes wealthier towns more heavily.
Their less affluent partners have countered that it’s only fair that towns with higher property values pay a larger share of the taxes.
Shouldn’t tightened guidelines such as Option One in #50 affect the refi market as well? If you have an I/O ARM that’s going to re-set and you want to get out, for example, under new guidelines you might need a higher credit score than when you originated, plus full 10% equity at current appraisal. This could pose a problem. People might be trapped. More pressure on the consumer and foreclosures. This credit crunch is developing fast.
Hat tip to CR for posting up the most recent Ivy Zelman note:
http://calculatedrisk.blogspot.com/2007/03/credit-suisse-not-just-subprime-issue.html
jb
If anyone has the research note, I’d love a copy (for my own use of course).. jamesbednar at gmail dot com.
Thanks
Grim (46)-
Dubai= the only town where Cheney will be welcome when his term ends.
Add me to the list who is about to send in my lease renewal for my Apt for at least another year.
Gary in IT, please drop me a line @ mboy72@gmail.com
Thanks.
Hi, a comment re: RentinginNJ post #41. The russian accented realtor who urged him to put in an offer at a POS cape in Fairlawn. I’ve been closely following the Fairlawn market in NJMLS since a year ago, in the lowest end of the spectrum (which is what I can afford sob, sob). Last Oct. there were about 36 houses offered in the 340 to 400K range. 28 of those had disappeared by late Feb. of this year, and 12 new ones had replaced them, which put the inventory at 18 aprox. However, looking at the public records in NJ.com, it looks like maybe 1 or 2 sold and the rest were merely pulled out. The stillness continued until about a week ago. Since then, the inventory has been growing at 1 house a day. Today there are 25 houses between 330 and 400. Quality is still totally POS for that $$. The houses recently withdrawn haven’t returned yet. But I can assure you that there have been no sales whatsoever in the last few months. At least, that how the situation looks like if the public records are trustworthy.
#50
Holy Cr@p. 10% Downpayments
Would love to hear from either KL or Clot. They both mentioned that a lot of buyers out there are from the 100% crowd.
Surprised at how things are tipping over quickly, looks like a critical mass was reached.
Anti (54)-
If I could tell you that, I’d be on the beach with fruity drink in hand.
However, one undisputable fact is that first-time, entry-level (sub 250K) purchasers have been pretty much obliterated in NJ. I don’t think we’ll see ’em back until prices get in line with their incomes.
JB,
The March-over-February sales jump seems to be consistently in the 50%+ range so that’s something I’m going to be looking at to get an early indication of where we are. 2002 seems to be part of the bubble so I’m not sure if 50% applies in non-bubble years but I suspect it would.
We go below a 50% jump and that will indicate that our storm isn’t just here, it’s intensifying.
Ha. Found this funny.
http://www.mortgage101.com/partner-scripts/inman.asp?ID=62463
DEAR BOB: We are in the process of buying a larger home and aren’t sure what to do with the home we now own. We can’t afford both. If we sell our current home, we will lose about $50,000 based on similar nearby home sales, compared to what we owe. If we rent it for about $2,000 per month, that isn’t enough to pay the $3,300 monthly mortgage payment. We have about $15,000 in savings, but that won’t last long with a loss each month. I’ve been told about a “short sale,” which is a step above foreclosure. But I’m not sure what that would do to our credit. … What should we do? –Hillary A.
DEAR HILLARY: Why in the world would you contract to buy another house before selling your old home if you can’t afford both houses?
Unless you are in default on your mortgage payments (which will greatly harm your credit and probably disqualify you from getting a mortgage on the new home), your current mortgage lender won’t even consider a “short sale” for less than the mortgage balance. Yes, a short sale will ruin your credit.
I suggest you cancel buying that larger home. Stay in your current residence. Your situation shows why it’s always best to sell your old home before buying another one (unless you are independently wealthy, which you don’t appear to be). I would like to be more sympathetic, but you got yourself into this mess and there is no easy way out.
An acquaintance emailed me back in the fall. I assume he was looking for some help to convince himself he made a good decision. I never got back to him and don’t intend to. I’m trying to dissect this WaMu I/O loan to satisfy my own curiosity. I realize this isn’t much to work with.
$475,000
410k @6.3 fixed interest only
the rest at prime
Not great but not a bad loan either.
I’m assuming “fixed interest only” is for a fixed time period. Is 10 years the standard before the loan resets to principle and interest?
“the rest at prime” could this be a piggyback loan? I think very small percent was made in the form of a down payment maybe three percent.
Anyone have any thoughts?
Nice to see these kind of articles out there:
http://www.delawareonline.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20070312/BUSINESS/703120314/-1/NEWS01
Beware the mortgage trap
Many consumers are allowing themselves to be ensnared by home loans they can’t afford
By LESLIE A. PAPPAS, The News Journal
Posted Monday, March 12, 2007
Steve Moore, 34, of Delaware City, doesn’t know when he’ll find a suitable two-bedroom house to buy south of the canal. The appliance installer has been struggling for more than a year to find a home his family can afford.
But Moore is certain of one thing: He’s going with a traditional, fixed-rate mortgage. He watched his cousin lose a home to foreclosure after taking on a mortgage with a highly adjustable rate. Payments started at $1,200, then spiked to $1,900 the next year. “Three years down the road he had to get out,” says Moore. “I have two kids. I can’t take the risk.”
#69
I actually know of someone who is doing this right now. They are closing on their new house at the end of the month, will start renovations and when it’s within a few months of completion, put their present house on the market. They are confident that they can get close to the same amount for their current house as they are paying for their new house. My opinion is that they overpaid for the new house (yuk is all I can say about it) and then they will be putting about $200,000 into it. I hope for their sakes, they can actually sell their present house.
At least from my perspective IT in the tri-state area has been a washout. All the calls/emails I got were for contract work with crap for pay and terms no longer than a year. Any perm positions for my field (>12yr unix admin) were for shady-ass companies.
I believe that, long term, there is no reason to have IT in the tri-state area anyway, at least backoffice stuff (datacenters, server/network maintenance), due to the area’s complete lack of competitiveness when it comes to things like rents, environmental/union regs, utility costs, accessibility, etc. Acting on this, I took a fulltime position in Delaware and moved down here to a rental townhouse, and so far it’s worked out quite well. A NYC salary goes quite a bit further down here, and I can tell you that at least our medium-to-large company is not growing _any_ backoffice stuff in NYC or anywhere else in hightaxland.
Sorry for the multiple cut and pastes.
Where were these people a couple of years ago? Where were the warnings?:
http://www.philly.com/mld/inquirer/business/16877360.htm
The Economy | When lending practices create bubbles, expect them to burst
By Andrew Cassel
Inquirer Columnist
#72 Willow;
I would hazard a guess there are lots of them out there. How many of these early spring sales are to step-up buyers? How many have to find a buyer for their homes?
Summer is going to be interesting.
Who would venture to guess how Goldman and rest of the brokerages will fare in their latest earnings due out this week. Based on my reading they have considerable exposure to the subprime market. Is it wise to sell brokerage stocks before earnings?
Clotpoll Says:
March 12th, 2007 at 1:15 pm
However, one undisputable fact is that first-time, entry-level (sub 250K) purchasers have been pretty much obliterated in NJ.
Clot, am intrigued by what led you to your observation for first-time home buyers.
1. Are there NJ figures out there on how much the average first-time buyers put down/financed recently and the type of mortgage?
2. Are a majority of future buyers in the sub-prime and ALt-a category?
3. What effect does this have on entry level house demand and prices?
4. Less first-time buyers, harder the opportunity to trade up, right?. Is it safe the say the chinks in the food chain continue to appear?
From Bloomberg:
Mortgage Defaults May Reach $225 Billion, Lehman Says
Mortgage defaults over the next two years may climb to $225 billion, probably not enough to be a drag on the U.S. economy, according to debt strategists at Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc.
The forecast, based on an assumption of flat home prices, compares with about $40 billion annually in 2005 and 2006, according to a report today by analysts led by Srinivas Modukuri at Lehman, whose fixed-income research team has been ranked first by Institutional Investor magazine for seven straight years. Defaults may rise to $300 billion if home prices fall and tighter lending standards keep borrowers from refinancing, they wrote.
Investors are growing concerned that surging delinquencies on the riskiest mortgages will the cause the economy to weaken, hurting other assets. About $170 billion of the defaults would stem from so-called subprime mortgages, which now total $1.2 trillion, New York-based Lehman said.
“In the context of an $8.5 trillion mortgage market and a $17 trillion housing stock, the incremental defaults seem manageable,” Lehman said. About 1.5 million to 2 million homes will be foreclosed upon, according to the firm.
The warnings were there, the people doing the warnings, were laughed at, called doom and gloomers, or low life cry baby loser renters, wannabe home owners.
From NJ.com:
Legislative analyst warns tax collections may miss target
State taxes could bring in $653 million less than the treasurer is predicting for this year and next, opening a potential hole in Gov. Jon Corzine’s proposed $33.3 billion budget, a legislative analyst told lawmakers this morning.
David Rosen, the budget and finance officer for the non-partisan Office of Legislative Services, told the Assembly Budget Committee the treasury’s projected revenues may be too high by $299 million this year and $354 million for the budget year that begins July 1.
“We recognize that our forecast today injects unwelcome uncertainty” into efforts to draw up the next state budget, Rosen said. He likened projecting revenues to forecasting the path of a hurricane, adding, “At this point we are posting the watch flags and hoping they prove unnecessary.”
Rosen predicted six major taxes will bring in less than the treasury expects, with the biggest shortfall occurring in income tax collections. He called the income tax a “wild card” that fluctuates depending on whether the high-income households that pay most of that tax get bonuses, capital gains and other types of non-wage income.
Rosen said both his office and treasury will have more reliable income tax projections by mid-May.
Mortgage Defaults May Reach $225 Billion, Lehman Says
Mortgage defaults over the next two years may climb to $225 billion, probably not enough to be a drag on the U.S. economy, according to debt strategists at Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc.
Aren’t the so called Debt Strategists the reason we’re in this mess in the first place
Lishoosh #71, love the accompanying illustration to that article:
“Beware the mortgage trap”
http://vh10018.v1.moc.gbahn.net/apps/pbcsi.dll/bilde?Site=BL&Date=20070312&Category=BUSINESS&ArtNo=703120314&Ref=AR&Profile=1003
Dreamtheaterr #44: where were located those condos you said dropped from 285 to 245k? Just curious.
Marito, in http://www.realtor.com hit ZIP 08902, >2 bedroom,
WickedQuiver Says:
March 12th, 2007 at 1:25 pm
$475,000
410k @6.3 fixed interest only
the rest at prime Not great but not a bad loan either.
I’m assuming “fixed interest only” is for a fixed time period. Is 10 years the standard before the loan resets to principle and interest?
“the rest at prime” could this be a piggyback loan? I think very small percent was made in the form of a down payment maybe three percent.
Anyone have any thoughts?
Quiv: I think you have it right. Piggyback – yes
Hmm, part of my post disappeared. Marito, the townhouses are called Governors Pointe.
“bergenbubbleburst Says:
March 12th, 2007 at 2:10 pm
The warnings were there, the people doing the warnings, were laughed at, called doom and gloomers, or low life cry baby loser renters, wannabe home owners.”
You got that right. Even pretty conservative, sensible friends of mine were positive that I was just indulging in wistful thinking.
from the WSJ that grim posted:
does this sound like a dot-com to you….Porsche lessons
At a Mortgage Lender, Rapid Rise, Faster Fall
Wall Street Fueled Growth at New Century; A Party-Hard Culture
[edit]
Partying and heavy drinking were common on company outings, former employees say. David Pace, a former New Century account executive who dealt with loans in southeast Michigan, says the theme of one cruise in the Bahamas was “The Best Damn Mortgage Company. Period.”
The company also sent top-producing employees to a Porsche-driving school, says James Fuller, a former project manager in New Century’s information-technology department. “It was a culture of excess,” says Mr. Fuller, who left in 2005.
[edit]
“The warnings were there”,
bbb [79],
I hear you. I have been called arrogant, on this site, for holding cash.
Everywhere you looked, the dark storm clouds were gathering steam. The problem is most individuals extrapolate from the past rather than look forward. They can call it anything they want, permabears, wannabes, doom and gloom, lod’s, etc… I call it the biggest RE bust and worst consumer debt crisis ever.
Everybody has choices, some take the road where they are buried in debt, others remain solvent. Everybody makes their own bed.
Chi {88},
Same s*it, just packaged different.
A number of rumors regarding layoffs at Countrywide are making their way around the net today.
jb
No point in doing any victory dance until you are painting the walls of your new home in Chatsworth Blue. Mortgage market news makes for lovely cocktail conversation but hasn’t changed the state of asking prices by and large in the “better” towns. Add me to the list of those crossing off 2007.
The only real benefit thus far is that at least now my family thinks its smart not to buy this year. One less debate around the dinner table.
p.s. I hope I have to eat my words about crossing off 2007.
So when will this general downturn hit New York City and its boroughs? What I hear is that in recent months the number of sales has increased again, and prices don’t seem to have fallen.
What would be a reasonable offer for MLS ID# 2324613? Any feedback would be greatly appreciated.
A co-worker told me a story today about her niece, 21 years old, looking to buy a condo. Single, has been a teacher for 2 years, and looking for parents to cosign.
Oh bother.
jb
nd Says:
March 12th, 2007 at 3:26 pm
So when will this general downturn hit New York City and its boroughs? What I hear is that in recent months the number of sales has increased again, and prices don’t seem to have fallen.
nd: correct – NYC is immunized against the current contagion……the question is whether as this virus morphs, NYC and the Street can maintain its defenses. History says that there is ZERO chance of this happening. However, depending on how this plays out, the results will range from carnage to a mere malaise.
Came across this link on Propertygrunt:
http://www.newyorkbusiness.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20070212/FREE/70212009/1048/breaking
Foreclosure filings soar in Brooklyn, Queens
A rapid rise in foreclosure rates could cost thousands of mostly low- and middle-income New Yorkers their homes.
The number of homes in foreclosure rose 18% in the last six months of 2006 compared with the same period of 2005, according to data from RealtyTrac. More worrisome is the fact that filings tabulated by Profiles Publications show that 100 homes in both Brooklyn and Queens are entering the foreclosure process each week — double the numbers of a year ago.
From Reuters:
Countrywide may feel subprime earnings drag
Countrywide Financial, the largest U.S. mortgage lender, said Monday it has low exposure to nonprime mortgages, but may still experience fluctuating earnings in the near term due to turmoil in the U.S. subprime market.
…
Countrywide said it was tightening its underwriting standards, adding that nonprime loans were only 7 percent of its funding volume in February.
The move comes amid surging defaults in mortgages made to borrowers with weak credit or inadequate documentation, as underwriting standards industry wide have proven too weak.
Countrywide told its brokers Friday to stop offering borrowers the option of taking out a mortgage without a down payment, according to a document obtained by Reuters. Other lenders have made similar changes.
#92 is awaiting moderation
Off-topic…
JB, as you’ve speculated re: gambling in the Meadowlands before, thought it might be of interest…saw it in my local JC paper:
Manzo’s gamble: Casino dream for Meadowlands
Thursday, March 01, 2007
By CHARLES HACK
JOURNAL STAFF WRITER
A Hudson County assemblyman is hoping to slash the state’s yawning deficit by turning the Meadowlands into the high-rolling capital of northern New Jersey.
Assemblyman Louis Manzo, D-Jersey City, wants to amend the New Jersey constitution to allow the Legislature to permit casinos to be built in the Meadowlands. He also envisions an amendment to allow slot machines at the Meadowlands Racetrack.
A spokesman for Gov. Jon Corzine’s office said that the administration has not seen the assemblyman’s bills, and it will be reviewed once they have been introduced.
Manzo outlined his proposals in a letter to the chairman of the Assembly Tourism and Gaming Committee, Assemblyman Jeff Van Drew, D-Cape May.
Currently, casino-type gambling in the state is permitted only in Atlantic City.
Rather than hurting the profits of Atlantic City casinos, Manzo said that allowing gambling in the Meadowlands would help make up for revenue that increasingly will be lost to surrounding states.
Connecticut has four casinos. New York Gov. Elliot Spitzer just announced a new casino next to the Monticello Raceway, in the Catskills, and another is being proposed in the Poconos in Pennsylvania.
Manzo said that he envisions just one casino being built at the Meadowlands. He said that the number of slot machines would be determined by a formula based on the population and other factors.
“We don’t want to hurt Atlantic City,” said Manzo. “Meadowlands could work as well as Reno works for Nevada – without hurting Las Vegas.”
The fortunes of the casino would be tied to Xanadu, the controversial retail and entertainment complex planned for the Meadowlands.
“The Meadowlands could be the center of entertainment in north New Jersey,” Manzo said. “It would be a financial bonanza for the state.”
Manzo is opposed to legislation by state Sen. Ray Lesniak, D-Elizabeth, that would lease the New Jersey Turnpike to private investors as a way to raise revenue.
He said that taxing Meadowlands gambling profits by 50 percent would make a significant dent in the debt – estimated at $30 billion. Manzo said he hopes the revenue generated from a casino and slot machines would reduce the need to cut funding for social programs and avert a sale of the state’s toll roads.
#96/ #97
Guess New York isn’t immune after all – the edges are beginning to fray.
NYC is immunized against the current contagion……the question is whether as this virus morphs, NYC and the Street can maintain its defenses. History says that there is ZERO chance of this happening. However, depending on how this plays out, the results will range from carnage to a mere malaise.
Damn it all if that aint some PRETTY writin’!
NYC Condo recent hearsay.
A good friend is before coop board for a 450 sqft studio for $365,000. (I felt guilty writing him a recommendation letter for the coop board since I feel the timing is wrong).
He only plans to be around the city for 2 years. He looked for 10 days on 15+ some condos and bidded on 3 diff. properties. According to him, the market is very active–well priced, decent coop or condo is sold within a few days of listing (hence he lost out on the first 2 bids they placed). he won the place on the third place he offered.
On the other hand, his accepted bid (as well as the bid he beated) came under LP, which reflects a softer market in my mind. His observed a lack of overbidding. People avoiding bidding wars, and when gets close to LP, people move on. It also appears that there are a number of properties for him to choose from/view.
As for the rationale for buying, he is currently taxed at the highest bracket and believe the tax saving is worth it. I reminded him that AMT might be an issue, and that he might not even recover the transaction cost 2 years later. He said he’ll just rent it then, buy another place where he will move to, and carry two mortgages. He believes the rent will pay for the carrying cost. But if he rents then he loses the mortgage interest deduction. So many “what-if”s and “but”s.
#103 is Manhattan
So when will this general downturn hit New York City and its boroughs? What I hear is that in recent months the number of sales has increased again, and prices don’t seem to have fallen.
Housing bubbles tend to emanate from large “superstar” cities, spreading farther into the suburbs and then exurbs as time goes on and prices in the core area continue to rise. These bubbles tend to collapse in reverse, with the exurbs dropping first, followed by the suburbs and finally the city.
http://www.itulip.com/housingpriceregionscascade.htm
Duckweed,
During the last crash in the early 90’s, New York magazine did a cover story about people who were trapped in their co-ops – couldn’t sell; nothing was moving. They wanted to move on – buy a house in the suburbs since they were at the stage of having kids.
Maybe you could get a back issue for your friend.
That period of time – people were referring to their co-ops as being “worthless.” It wasn’t a question of price; it was that no one was buying, period.
Market freeze.
From Reuters:
S&P cuts New Century’s debt rating to “Default”
Standard & Poor’s on Monday cut its counterparty credit rating on New Century Financial Corp. to “D,” or default, citing notices of default from several lenders based on violations of financing arrangements.
New Century (NEW.N: Quote, Profile , Research), the largest independent U.S. subprime mortgage lender, said on Monday its lenders plan to halt financing, pushing the company closer to bankruptcy amid dwindling cash and $8.4 billion in obligations that could come due immediately.
New Century’s inability to meet the notes that are immediately payable is tantamount to a general default, S&P said. It cut New Century’s rating to “D” from “CC.”
#94
Ron,
That house was bought in 1994 for $281,000. Can’t say how much it’s worth now but it has been on the market for quite some time.
http://tax1.co.monmouth.nj.us/cgi-bin/m4sr.cgi?&srch_type=1&ms_user=monm&district=20021398
#106. Thanks for the note. If I could convince him I would have. (He is a good friend, good enough that I have sufficient knowledge of his finances). He believes he can save and make enough for another place when he does move, without having to sell this condo. Not much you can say to someone who takes that position.
Either way he won’t end up on the street so I’m not going to fight him for his plus-minus 50k profit/loss.
NYC Is not immunized, never was, and never will be, no area is immunized against teh collapse of bubbles.
NYC fell before, and it is starting to fall now, and I suggest it will be just as ugly in NYC as in the outlying areas, if not uglier, the bigger the boom, the harder the fall. It really si that simple.
#92 Seneca 2007 is the acceptance year for sellers, you can cross off 07,with the knowledge, that what we have all benn discussing here, is now in fact playing out. We were not wrong, simply early,
#89 BC Bob: They made it, and now they are going to be laying in that bed for a long, long time.
Waiting:
#108
Thanks. I already pulled the previous sale data. They are, in my opinion, asking way too much. Comps from the same street that sold in late 2005 were in the low 600’s. It does not appear to be worth pursuing. The street is used as a pass through from what I hear.
I was considering a first offer of at least 10% off LP. Then, my realtor started with the “don’t insult the sellers” BS routine. It’s easy for my realtor to spend my money. That just proves what we knew all along; realtors are not working in your best interest.
Ron
Ron, dump the realtor, and look at any house you like, in any town you like, and offer any amount you like.
Unrealtor:
Can I make a written offer to a listing agent without a buyers agent?
Ron, have you actually toured the house? What sort of shape is it in? Its asking price is no doubt inflated by 15% min. however, its tough to compare 2005 comps unless you know how those homes looked inside. Maybe the 719 house has had an Extreme Makeover?
Dream (77)-
I don’t know of a database for these first-timers and their financing tendencies. However, I get enough traffic thru my office to back up my take on this.
At 05-06 prices, virtually all our first-timers were 95-100 LTV. Not necessarily subprime/Alt-A, though…most passing thru here had good credit. They just had to stretch to afford the high prices, and they didn’t have tons in the way of savings.
In the “brave new world” of today, something’s gotta give…and that something is price. Everything else is written in stone. Consequence: prices will continue to decrease. First-time buyers jumpstart the mechanics and “falling dominoes” of the market, so even sellers 1-2 price points up the chain will feel the effects.
Ron (113)-
THAT Realtor isn’t working in the client’s best interest. There’s a lot of us, and we’re not all the same.
Thanks.
Ron – we’ve got the exact same problem with our realtor – we’ve put two offers down at 10% below LP, and both times our agent reacted very badly. We’ve simply taken the approach that if he wants to represent us, he’ll do as he’s told. We’re happy to find someone else if he’d prefer. We should, perhaps, call Clotpoll.
10 percent below ?
Where’s BooYaa Bob when you need him?
“We should, perhaps, call Clotpoll.”
Better check the NCAA tourney schedule first.
Call Clot! What am I, Chop meat?
I don’t let my clients bid anything over 20% off OLP. :)
jb
Seneca:
I have seen all three homes that are on the same street (we have been searching on and off since Q4 2005). The homes are comparable in property dimension, condition, square footage, renovations and amenities. Based on these comps (which sold at what seems to be the peak of the boom) the home is over priced by approximately 10-15%. Also, Clark’s curent inventory level (per Q4 Otteau) is 11 months. However this does not prove to be a deterrent against unrealistic asking prices.
Does anyone want to take a guess as what pecentage of buyers have/will exit the market given the tightened lending standards and speculators running for the exits?
Anti,
CR covers the most recent Zelman piece very well here:
http://calculatedrisk.blogspot.com/2007/03/tanta-credit-suisse-not-drinking-kool.html
She and her colleagues put the impact of tightening standards at 21% of the total market.
Also from CR:
http://bp2.blogger.com/_pMscxxELHEg/RfXUYdpqM0I/AAAAAAAAALw/TJua788pmh0/s1600-h/CS50.jpg
jb
JB
We will be calling you. Send me an email with your contact info.
Thanks,
Ron
OT:
Tourney…..I’m taking ‘Cuse to go all the way…………..
brutal chicago… brutal :-)
All that that New Century story needed was a mention of fussball tables, and the analogy to the dot.com era would have been ABSOLUTELY perfect.
i thought that i’d add this to fuel the over-spending economy that we’re in. sad, but it’s alarming, no?
Survey: Nearly half of U.S. lives paycheck to paycheck
NEW YORK (Reuters) — Four out of 10 U.S. workers often or always live from paycheck to paycheck, according to a survey released Monday.
Women are more likely to live paycheck to paycheck, at 47 percent, than men, at 36 percent, according to the survey conducted for CareerBuilder.com, an online job site based in Chicago.
Overall, 41 percent of workers say they often or always live paycheck to paycheck, it said.
Also, 41 percent of women say they do not have enough income to live comfortably, compared with 29 percent of men.
U.S. government and other research reports have found that women earn about 77 cents for every dollar earned by men for comparable work. Women are also more likely to be single parents.
The new survey said 19 percent of workers who earn $100,000 or more annually often or always live paycheck to paycheck.
It found 58 percent of respondents report they set a budget each month. But one in five say they typically spend more than their budget, most often blowing it by eating out.
The survey also said one in five do not set aside any money for savings each month. Of those who do, 14 percent save $500 or more a month, 28 percent save $100 or less and 16 percent save less than $50.
It said 26 percent of women do not set aside any savings, compared with 17 percent of men.
The survey of 6,169 full-time adult workers was conducted between November 17 and December 11, 2006 by Harris Interactive and has a margin of error of plus or minus 1 percentage point.
http://www.cnn.com/2007/US/03/12/life.work.reut/index.html
njpatient (119)-
Thanks, but:
1. I offered a promise to Grim that I wouldn’t use this site to troll for customers. He spends a lot of time & loot keeping this thing going, and he hasn’t monetized this site at all…an amazing feat of integrity and endurance.
2. Think about your agent’s advice before you toss him off a cliff. As I’ve mentioned here before, if you’re looking for tomorrow’s price today, it’s not going to happen. And, if that’s your goal, you’re better off working the pre-foreclosure market. It’s one thing if your agent simply doesn’t want to work hard; it’s another if that agent is steering you away from an un-doable deal.
BC (121)-
Heh, heh…yeah, I’ve got some “pressing” business meetings coming up. I’ll post my sked here…just note that on March 15, 17, 23, 25, 31 and (hopefully) April 2, I’ll be tied up in some extremely high-level RE confabs on making I/O, neg-am financing available in developing nations such as Uruguay, Kazakhstan, United Arab Emirates (all those new Halliburton hires are gonna need homes) and the Seychelles.
Please refer to the following, and do not call me- for any reason- at the times indicated in the “East” quadrant :
http://sports.espn.go.com/ncb/ncaatourney07/bracket
Grim (122)-
Lowballer.
thats a compliment around here
Quiv (127)-
On the other hand, d’ya think you guys could pump your schedule a little? Playing schools like DeVry and 18-Wheeler Tech…and losing to a couple of them- at home- don’t help your case at tourney time.
#117
Clotpoll,
Thanks for your insight and perspective. As a yet-to-be first-time buyer, I am on the sidelines and as this fiasco plays out.
Another observation from my end as an immigrant; I think a part of the subprime and Alt-A category consists of legal and illegal immigrants. The no-doc, stated loan bit allowed these folks (who had no business buying so early) to pursue the ‘American Dream’ prematurely. This is going to have repurcussions on the lenders coz these borrowers have nothing to lose; just walk away. They don’t have a credit history, so why bother with a bankruptcy.
2 years ago, one could get an IO loan and get into a huge house. If the house went up in value, cash out and retire back to their home country to stay in the US. If it failed (like what’s happening now) take a one-way ticket back home; come back again in a few years and start afresh.
My observation may be politically incorrect and I don’t mean to stereotype, but this is the way I see it.
hmmmm…smells like tomorrows prices today
I wonder how many houses on the market today are
‘pre-forclosure’
Unrealtor
Please let me relay a story of this evening.
I am out with a couple who have been looking for a while and lost out on a couple to higher bids or other shenanigans. They were with another realtor. They saw a home they really liked and wanted to put in an offer. They asked if I thougt 350,000 was too low ( 379,000ask) I said no I think we should put in 347,000.Further to that I suggested we wait till wednesday, see it again and wait a little longer to put in an offer. I advise if they wanted the house at any cost this was not the approach to to take and they could possibly not get it. They want the house but not at any price.So being a buyer’s agent in this instance I suggested we take the approach I outlined above. When I came into this market I awaited patiently for the days that a buyer’s agent had some pull on the reins. I hope they are a coming soon.
KL
On a side note, this is a difficult market, as the wise clotpoll has said, The seller’s want yesterday’s price and the buyers want tommorow’s
KL
…and the lesson is:
Don’t pay yesterdays prices today.
I am trying to get some scoop as to what is the deal with Hal moving to Dubai.
I don’t like this move. Makes me wonder what this signals??
anyone wanna sound off on this one?
SAS
gas prices will be going down
hard to say about gas going down…
But, food prices are going through the roof.
These prices on crab are killing me.
Those shitdicks down in Maryland really screwed up.
SAS
If only reality, including auctions and incentives, were reflected in comps.
But I can’t always get what I want, so I’ll wait.
I truly thought by now prices would be another 10% lower than 2005, for a total 30% off. For some reason, whether it’s the slow sales, old comps, or incentive issue, the asking prices of new listings are still not where they need to be to move inventory…or at least to move me.
An agent’s brag sheet site caught my eye today. There were so many sale success stories, but all (except three) of them were closed before the end of 2005.
How can someone live on selling three properties, including those that were buyer’s agent work? One was only a $250k condo. One was $350, one $550.
I just don’t get it. Aren’t agents hungry?
“Can I make a written offer to a listing agent without a buyers agent?”
Of course! The listing agent wants that commission check, and will walk you through the deal, provide the paperwork and everything.
Don’t trust him/her, though, but don’t trust a “buyer” agent either.
And if the listing agent doesn’t want to submit your “insulting” offer, go directly to the seller — knock on the door.
no, they’re selling perfume at Macy’s.
SAS, there was a pretty good analysis and commentary this morning around 8:30 on NPR about Hal.
Tax plays combined with political weakness create a must-do situation. With so much of the remaining reserves there, the ever-weaker pigs need to be nearer the trough to ensure full feeding.
Americans don’t have the same long-distance pull anymore.
KL, you’re not the typical realtor, and a buyer would be fortunate to have your services.
Unfortunately, very few realtors are like you, so on balance, I think it’s best to avoid bringing them into the loop unless absolutely necessary (e.g., bringing an offer directly to a listing agent).
Also, it’s a great freedom to look at any house in any town, at any price, and not have to worry about “your agent” getting offended.
While I wish you the best of success, I think realtors are heading the way of travel agents.
See:
http://www.travelocity.com
http://www.expedia.com
http://www.orbitz.com
http://www.cruises.com
“Americans don’t have the same long-distance pull anymore”
Yup, that is what I don’t like to see.
We’ve transferred everything to government & govt transferred it to the corporations, and now the corps know the US isn’t the place to be anymore.
Only a matter of time before NYC is no longer the financial capital of the world. And when that happens, your Cape in NJ will be worth less than the piece of paper the mortgage is written on.
SAS
another words, Privatization.
Maybe that wall should have stayed up??
SAS
#148 Unrealtor:
It seems that until realtors relinquish access to MLS information, we will be forced to use their services. Realtor.com is often extremely outdated, with houses long under contract still being listed as active. I also can’t see DOM, OLP, or whether a house is ARIP without the help of a realtor. To allow the public access to this information would be suicide for agents- do you really see that happening any time soon? (I’m hoping you’ll say yes.)
I should add that I don’t hate all agents, but I’d rather not be so dependent upon someone to do something I’d rather do myself.
dream (135)-
You’re more correct than you think. There are scores of illegal aliens buried in the subprime swamp. However, you don’t have to be an illegal to think there’s nothing left to lose if you’re in negative equity…a loss is a loss.
The real kicker is going to be the discovery of how many illegal aliens ON TERROR WATCHLISTS are mortgagors. Not to play Jack Bauer here, but money-laundering- via all types of straw-man, third-party, “nonprofit organization” deals- thru residential RE is still insanely easy to accomplish.
re post 79
Three months ago Wall St. was dismissing a Center for Responsible Lending report that said there would be 2M foreclosures. It didn’t too long for them to change their mind.
sas (141)-
How’s about the UAE doesn’t have an extradition treaty with the US? Check this little nugget, containing the list of countries that won’t extradite:
http://www.drugtext.org/library/articles/912612.htm
Cheney might want to check the quality of cardiac care in Dubai.
Pat (144)-
We…don’t…set…the…prices.
UnRealtor
Funny you should say that, when it came to one of those , what I considered expensive trips
(Disney World) I wanted a travel agent. Someone who could explain – the different types of passes – one day vs hopper. I wanted to tell her what my family likes ( my kids are’nt big on scary rides) I wouldn’t have known to reserve our dinners and breakfasts without her. I had heard various things from friends ( just like potentional home buyers do ) But I wanted someone who had booked this trip 100 times, Its transactional experience I was looking for.
You know you will be involved in 2-4 real estate transactions in your life on average. As a Real EState agent I have been involved in so so many more. I have encountered so many different situations, and circumstances.
I was gland I went to my Travel Agent.
Hope you find a good Travel/Real Estate Agent.
KL
Yeah, I know. I wasn’t commenting on that (I’d never risk raising your blood pressure on that one).
I’m surprised at agents who can hold on for more than a year at this transaction level.
UnCola (148)-
Some of my best friends are black.
Your patronizing comments are doubly insulting and reflective of your own ignorance.
BTW, come up with a better analogy than travel agents. Unless you’re flying to Jupiter next week, I haven’t seen any $400,000 tickets that can be bought with a mouseclick.
Why don’t you go back to Zillow and enjoy the purty pictures?
His education will cost your town $25,800 this year.
JB I heard this nonsense every year from regional school districts in my newspaper days. The figures are totally bogus. Notice it doesn’t say “it costs you $25,800.”
The $25,800 in taxes of course includes all property in town (you know, all those businesses and senior citizens who aren’t sending kids.)
I don’t know if you read the whole story, but the reporters do a pretty good job of providing the explanation for the way the system works and if you think about it, it’s the fairest way.
FYI, I think Sea Bright likes to scream about paying $50K per year for their students at Shore Regional (most famous graduate Fred Schneider of the B-52s), but they have a lot of high value property and very few high school students. There is not a person on earth who would feel sympathy for someone whose residential tax bill has them paying $50K for a regional school, even in New Jersey.
There is one town, and only one town, that gets over on this system. Loch Arbour.
I am awaiting Moderation??
I’m excited, thats never happened to me before
KL
possible (151)-
If you dig around enough & find the right agent, you’ll get enough information to choke a pig. Keep mulching until you find one that will update you every day or two (it’s not that hard for a good agent to do).
When you find a good agent, you’ll find that information is ubiquitous. What’s not in steady supply are people who can help you turn all that info into usable, actionable knowledge.
What could I be doing in my 157 and 162 – It’s to Unrealtor, is he moderating now.
Come -on let me out…
KL
KL (160)-
You may want a cigarette afterwards.
Clot
The unfair part of this moderation is you keep telling Unrealtor, what I am trying to tell him in my awaiting moderation post.
Not in the same words of course..
KL
KL (164)-
Is it politically incorrect to wish Ebola virus on someone?
You two need Sally over here for some really insightful and persuasive logic.
Sally says everybody on this site is a scumbucket and doesn’t know jack about the sales in New Jersey.
Sally says she’s selling them like hotcakes at the shore. Or was she selling hotcakes now, down the shore?
I got your Sally, right here.
OK, KL. I figured it out. Don’t use the word sc*mbucket or h*tcake in the same post. I just did and got moderated.
Please take me out of moderation, what did I do, what did I say. Shall I copy and paste it again?? I basicly said I liked using a travel agent. No bad words. Really
BTW…thanks for the great new host, Grim. Faster than a huff of turpentine to the brain stem.
Insults come much easier when you know that it’s a nanosecond from click to published!
Clotpoll Says:
March 12th, 2007 at 8:52 pm
Quiv (127)-
Playing schools like DeVry and 18-Wheeler Tech…and losing to a couple of them- at home- don’t help your case at tourney time.
DeVry – nice!
Obviously grim is sleeping he’s not spying on the posters and where where pinging and dinging from.
KL
oops where =were
Clotpoll Says:
March 12th, 2007 at 10:51 pm
KL (164)-
Is it politically incorrect to wish Ebola virus on someone?
OK – this goes up there with “read my lips you schmuck” from Booya
#1 post so far in 2007
Halliburton moving to Dubai? That place is way too hot…hotter than Texas.
I don’t know whether it is a good move or bad move from a strategic standpoint. It could be good for shareholders, but employees are a sitting duck as far as a terrorist target is concerned. Something tells me that Hallie & Co. underestimate how much they are hated in that part of the world.
My 2 cents.
I dunno. I liked “I got your Sally, right here.”
2 minutes later and I am still laughing
While we’re killing time here…
When Realtor.com was launched in 1995, many financial commentators weighed in with the opinion that agents would be reduced to the same “order-taker” status as travel agents (who were the first to fall to the commoditizing effects of the internet).
Thomas Friedman, in The World is Flat, offers a great description of how the global economy reduces “fungible” goods and skills to the level of commodity. When products- and the skills required to sell them- have been reduced to a mind-numbing level of sameness, the only remaining difference among them will be price.
Well, it’s 12 years later…and say what you want, but RE is no closer to being a commodity today than it was then.
Put that in your Zillow and smoke it.
HAL to Dubai – simple Cheney hedging his bets should Hillary take over the White House and institute socialized medicine. You can’t be put on the wait list when you need a stent, bypass, angioplasty, blood clot thinning, anuerysm surgey and treatment for gout all in the same week.
Looks like I am not getting out of moderation tonight.
Good night
As they say in the office of the VP – “go Reechard yourself”
Clot…I agree with you on this one. I’ve said it before, maybe before your time.
For the majority of sellers and purchasers, the real estate transaction is too infrequent and time-consuming to become a commodity transaction.
But there is a lot of room for slicing and dicing portions to make the consumer think they’re only buying what they need.
Pat (157)-
They can’t. The outgoing stream is pretty steady.
And, it’s needed. Too many people were chasing the dream.
Just like the mortgage guys going to race car driver school, lots of RE agents have discovered this is a living…not a lifestyle.
Realtor clotpoll writes:
“Some of my best friends are black.
Your patronizing comments are doubly insulting and reflective of your own ignorance.”
FOAD.
Let’s keep an eye on this tomorrow….
WSJ
AHEAD OF THE TAPE
It’s Prime Time For Insights From Goldman
By SCOTT PATTERSON
March 13, 2007
All eyes will be on Goldman Sachs Group’s first-quarter earnings report today. The Wall Street firm may try to soothe jitters with upbeat comments about the broader health of the real-estate market. That doesn’t mean investors should stop worrying.
Since its shares got clocked for a 6.6% loss in the Feb. 27 broad-market selloff, Goldman has gained back just 1.4%. Today’s report could provide the boost Goldman needs.
The consensus analysts’ estimate is for per-share earnings, excluding one-time charges, of $4.97 for the quarter, down 2% from last year, according to Thomson Financial. As has happened repeatedly, Goldman is likely to top expectations and set the bar high for other banks reporting this week, including Lehman Brothers Holdings and Bear Stearns.
Banks, brokers and insurers are the largest group of stocks in the Standard & Poor’s 500. Year-to-date, financial companies are the second-worst-performing sector in the S&P 500, behind energy stocks, down about 3%, compared with a 0.8% decline by the broader index. Concerns about the shake-up in the subprime-mortgage market that have hurt the sector were intensified by the meltdown of New Century Financial.
While Goldman’s earnings should impress, any comments it makes on the subprime-mortgage mess will be in focus. Goldman yesterday joined other banks in turning off the funding spigot for New Century.
Investment banks stand to lose heavily if the subprime debacle spreads. If a broader real-estate downturn triggers a recession, it could threaten stellar trading gains.
Investors should question whether the banks’ real-estate crystal ball has grown foggy. Not only were many banks big lenders to New Century, they were also among the most aggressive buyers of its now-battered stock. Three of the top five institutional investors in New Century were Morgan Stanley, Citigroup and Goldman, according to FactSet Research.
Are these the people we should listen to about real estate’s risks?
Halliburton moving to Dubai?
I heard that they will have A corporate headquarters in Dubai, but it won’t be THE corporate headquarters.
That’ll still be in Texas.
ChiFi (179)-
Yeah, but if Cheney’s daughter tries to visit him there, they’re gonna throw her in a pit and stone her to death.
And their courts will be cool with it.
So how do you explain someone with maybe ….hang on I’m going back to her site…
O.K. ~60 sales from ’03 to ’05, then dead.
Are these the tough guys I should be working with, who knew enough to save some money…so they’re still in business?
UnDead (184)-
What an original and witty riposte!
Pat (188)-
Let me assure you that the savings rate for RE agents is probably well-below that of the general population.
One of the true generalities you hear about agents is that many are in the game for the thrill of the kill. And our savings rates reflect that mindset.
Like a gorging pack of feral dogs.
Pat (188)-
Honestly, big stats from 03-05 aren’t impressive and may not indicate skills needed for this kind of market.
If I were interviewing agents, I’d have two questions:
1. Have you ever worked in a down market (like ’89-’96)?
2. If so, what was your track record, and what was your general approach?
KL [138],
Find me 347k in the manor.
“What an original and witty riposte!”
Indeed, it’s tough to follow up such genius as “Some of my best friends are black,” or “Is it politically incorrect to wish Ebola virus on someone.”
You’re a vile person, but you’re a commission-grubbing parasite, so what can one expect.
Let the sucking up and wishing death on people continue…
Un (195)-
Looks like that one took several hours of thought to gestate.
“Some of my best friends are black” was meant as a jab at your left-handed compliment of KL. Not sure you got that (never sure, as you’re usually about 1/4 beat off the tune).
If I’m a parasite, I must be a damned virulent one…lots of years in the business, steady growth, more agents, more clients. If my game is becoming such a commodity & we’re all such sc*zbuckets, why do we keep finding more and more “marks”?
Oh, yeah…agents are idiots, buyers and sellers who use agents are idiots…and you, Zillow-Man, know all.
Go back to your cubicle. Break time’s over.