This is becoming a tradition around here, so here we go again! You know how this works, break out the crystal balls and prognosticate.
Ground Rules
Review the Predictions 2011! thread, and if you did make a prediction, please post it here so we know how you did (please do not skip this step). Predictions provided should either be for June 30th, 2012 or December 31st, 2012, please specify.
Provide justification for your forecast, where applicable (unless you are just making it up, if so, state that).
You may provide any caveats and/or assumptions that your forecast is based on.
You need not provide a forecast for all categories below.
Where applicable, forecasts are judged against the surveys/reports listed.
Real Estate
National
Existing Home Sales – NAR
Existing Home Price – S&P Case Shiller HPI
Existing Home Price – OFHEO HPI
New Jersey
Existing Home Sales – NAR/NJAR
Existing Home Price – S&P Case Shiller HPI
Existing Home Price – OFHEO HPI
National New Home Sales – NAHB
Median New Home Price – NAHB
Commodities
Energy (Oil, NatGas)
Metals (Gold, Silver, Copper)
Equities
United States
International Developed Markets
Emerging Markets
Mortgage Financing
30-Year Fixed – Freddie Mac PMMS
15-Year Fixed – Freddie Mac PMMS
Macroeconomic
10y Treasury
Fed Funds Rate
National Unemployment Rate
New Jersey Unemployment Rate
Oddball
Anything else you’d like to make a prediction about.
Are municipal governments spending money on services that nobody really cares about? (If you’ve ever wondered where you tax dollars go)
From Bloomberg:
Tax Cap Hits New Jersey’s Richest
The days of on-demand trash pickup are dwindling for residents of Millburn, the northern New Jersey community best known for The Mall at Short Hills, where Cartier diamonds meet Dior fashions.
Homeowners in the town of 18,700 people 20 miles (32 kilometers) west of Manhattan have only a few more days to summon a public-works truck for no charge to collect whatever they neglected to set out on garbage day. On Jan. 1, a cheaper private hauler will replace municipal employees collecting trash in the township, whose median household income of $170,000 a year is more than triple the national average.
“You would call, and they would come, and that’s not going to happen,” Mayor Sandy Haimoff, 73, said in a telephone interview. “People will realize they have to get the garbage out the night before.”
…
In 2010, Millburn’s average $19,441 property-tax bill was the third-highest in the state, while Montclair’s $16,413 was 12th-highest. In Princeton, the average was $15,255 in the borough and $16,212 in the township.
In Upper Saddle River, ranked by Bloomberg Businessweek as the 21st-richest U.S. zip code, fifth graders are learning on iPads bought by the school district and donors. Administrators don’t know whether they can afford to buy the devices for all of their students, said Angela Sacco-Torres, 50, president of the school board and co-owner of JMT Mortgage Consulting.
The town of 8,200 in northern Bergen County has been hit by job losses in financial services, Sacco-Torres said. While total employment in New Jersey fell 3.5 percent from 2004 to 2009, the state’s financial-services industry lost 6.1 percent of its jobs in that period, according to the New Jersey labor department.
“Upper Saddle River was a new-money community,” Sacco- Torres said in a Dec. 15 telephone interview. “We had a lot of people who worked on the Street and then the economy went southward. A lot of people in town are struggling. A lot of people are losing their homes.”
…
arding, a Morris County township about 45 miles from Manhattan that has an average residential property value of $1.26 million, merged its municipal-court services with three other towns in 2010. This year, the council closed its public tennis courts rather than spend $50,000 on resurfacing.
“Do we just remove it or do we repair it?” Gail McKane, 57, the township administrator, said by phone Dec. 19. “How does the community feel?”
Millburn estimates saving $800,000 a year when the private trash hauler takes over, and the mayor isn’t expecting gripes. During the summer, officials ended Saturday drop-off for recyclables, and with it overtime costs for sanitation staff.
“I must say, I have not received one complaint from the residents,” Haimoff said.
“Upper Saddle River was a new-money community,” Sacco- Torres said in a Dec. 15 telephone interview. “We had a lot of people who worked on the Street and then the economy went southward. A lot of people in town are struggling. A lot of people are losing their homes.”
Sell? Sell to Whom? 2012 Prediction: The bleeding continues in the hills of Haughtyville where unicorns, once frivolous and care-free, now turn ugly and vicious.
In 2012 NJ sheriff sales start rolling in force in the second half of the year. 2013 will see more REO listed in NJ than ever before.
Upper Saddle River residents in November voted not to renew a tax for parks and recreation.
“For the next five years or so, people are going to be very wary about any tax increase,” Sacco-Torres said.
Gee, I was told these towns are bleeding wealth. I just assumed it had to be true because a member of the NAR told me so. :o
30 year,
It’s inevitable. How long can the Wizard stay behind the curtain? Sooner or later, the scam unravels and everyone involved gets exposed.
Good Morning New Jersey
2012 will be the year of the “election”…which means more of the same from DC….unless Ron Paul wins. Then, it’s sit back and watch the fun!
Extinction before recovery.
It’s all going from gray to black.
Bruised,still standing, but not out.Hope for a less challenging New Year
Mike says:
December 29, 2010 at 9:06 am
Just what I keep posting same old boring stuff: Outsourcing will pick up momentum with local & state governments. Private industry will utilize it even more at higher levels. Once again this will fall over into the housing why? Lower wages and individuals paying for there own health care add some lack of confidence and voila. Sorry I’m not much of a stock picker but how about buying into the companies that sell outsourcing services?
SOME 2011 RESULTS FROM THIS PREDICTION http://www.healthcarefinancenews.com/news/pharmaceutical-companies-outsourced-366b-rd-2011 Guess I was wrong about state & municipal governments outsourcing, they just ELIMINATED jobs to balance budgets.
Year of the rabbit can kiss my A@s.Welcome year of the Dragon.Jan 23
I believe 2012 will just continue in a flat line. Automobile sales should kick up a notch, when you look around there are many clunkers on the road that will need replacing soon. New Jersey will lag behind the rest of the nation in just about everything, my justification? This blog
—“We had a lot of people who worked on the Street —-
Did he actually say, “the Street”?
Snort.
my prediction for 2012:
Everything will still suck!!
“The days of on-demand trash pickup are dwindling for residents of Millburn…”
I live in Millburn. I didn’t even know there was “on-demand” trash pick up. I don’t even get it. Trash pick up is twice a week. If you miss one day, you just put it out three days later.
Also, Saturday drop off for recycling. They come for recycling once a week. Why would you ever need this? Even in good times?
I wonder what other frivolous stuff is packed into the budget.
Stu –
from other thread – you say your tenants are leaving. How does it work with the lease? How can they get out of it early?
80% of government payroll growth was in local government over the last decade about 1.4 million new jobs created across the country.
It’s been about 2.5 years since the Obama $800 billion stimulus plan was enacted. That money cushioned the recession’s impact on state and local governments and it is now drying up. So are the jobs that were temporarily saved by that infusion of money. Question is are going to get cut. I would not expect that the State and Local government budgets which employ about 8 million are going to get another Stimulus Bill to keep the party going. It is either cut service and jobs or raise taxes this time around.
Clot mentioned this his haughty Suburban area of NJ. “Weathly” turn to local food pantries.
http://www.thefiscaltimes.com/Articles/2011/12/27/Americas-Best-Kept-Secret-Rising-Suburban-Poverty.aspx#page1
#94 Chi (previous thread),
The situation hasn’t really changed in the last 6 months, it just solidified. Overall O wins because there is no credible opposition.
If/when Romney wins the nomination, he steps up as a weak candidate, bloodied by a lot of the blows delivered by his own side and some self-inflicted. Newts “Massachusetts Moderate”, to Perry boxing him in on Immigration “I told him, I can’t have illegals working for me, I’m running for office for Pete’s sake”
And the dumbest political statement of the year, “Corporations are people to!”
Thats even before we get to his record. The 529s will have a field day wheeling out people laid off by Bain over the years.
For an “Anyone, but O” or indeed an “Anybody but Mitt” campaign to work, the alternative needs to be viable. Any other election, O would be vulnerable, but it was obvious to me back in 2008 that the GOP was turning far right and heading for the hills. The GOP had a chance at taking the senate in 2010 and they put up Sharon Angle in NV against Harry Reid and Christine O Donnell in DE. They may take the Senate in 2012 as the Dems have to hold all the gains they got in 2006 and pick off sufficient new seats. John McCain is currently saying that AZ may go Blue, so it will be an interesting election to watch. The Debt ceiling and the payroll tax hurt the GOP badly and showed that Bonehead and Palpatine can’t deliver their caucus.
Come 2016 when the GOP put up another batch of goof balls comparable to this crowd, Hillary for the GOP moderates will look very very appealing.
Just for you Gary, Gradon and Ellorys dad is busted!
http://www.northjersey.com/news/crime_courts/Police_catch_burglar_trying_to_steal_liquor_from_home.html
Fabius,
I like the story! I guess Graydon’s dad had nothing left. He is from Ridgewood, after all; I suppose 2 years removed from his defunct hedge fund job is taking a toll.
2012 Corporate Personhood leads to all kinds of fun, including a new sitcom based on a bored corporation that goes out to underground clubs at night and does accounting during the day.
Have you been voraciously reading Huffington Post and MSNBC.com? Romney is dull, but he definitely has become more credible as the Republican nonsense has dragged on. Basically he let the entire publicity-for-TV gig/book deal clowns beat the sh!t out of each other and he just walked on by. Do I care? No. I have watched utterly zero telecast politcal discussions to date. But most of what you write does not ring true, or more concerningly, objective. There is no doubt that O has weakened over the last six months, and given the choice, most of the centerist democrats would vote for Clinton in a heartbeat. If she stepped up right now, she would throttle everyone case closed.
Fabius Maximus says:
December 31, 2011 at 1:36 pm
#94 Chi (previous thread),
The situation hasn’t really changed in the last 6 months, it just solidified. Overall O wins because there is no credible opposition.
If/when Romney wins the nomination, he steps up as a weak candidate, bloodied by a lot of the blows delivered by his own side and some self-inflicted (NOT CORRECT) Newts “Massachusetts Moderate”, to Perry boxing him in on Immigration “I told him, I can’t have illegals working for me, I’m running for office for Pete’s sake” (GINGRICH AND PERRY HAVE BEEN DISCREDITED, HENCE THEIR CHARGES CARRY NO PERMANENCE)
And the dumbest political statement of the year, “Corporations are people to!”
Thats even before we get to his record. The 529s will have a field day wheeling out people laid off by Bain over the years.
ROMNEY’S RESPONSIBILTY IS TO MAKE IT TO THE CONVENTION AS CENTER AS POSSIBLE. HOW HAS HE FAILED IN THIS REGARD?
2012 Election. Depends on the economy from Labor day to the election. If we persist at this level, then Obama carries the election. If Europe tanks and sucks the U.S. down, Romney will win…..everything else is just a come on to try and persuade the public to pay attention for ratings.
Markets…..keep all your money at home. Do not invest internationally at all. You should have been positioned for this since the end of the summer once it was clear that Europe was a intractible sh1t storm.
Congress passes a new amendment to the Constitution making it a fundamental right of every citizen to have Jon Corzine in jail.
clot’s vasectomy miraculously reverses itself and he accidentally follows his idol Antonio Cromartie by fathering eight children, by seven women, in seven different states. His new tagline for his office is RE/MAX…great people, great motility…..
Price of oil will be a key kicker for the 2012 economy.If oil stays between 80 and 100 and DXY stays below 80 the US will have a recovery.Euro will not bring fear to US. O will win election.If oil goes above 120 with a strong dollar it will be another year of the wabbit and the Republican will win election.Another fear will go on.
Prices will go down another 3% AT LEAST this year and 20% AT LEAST in next five years. RE is dead for several years.
It’s not that there are no buyers or their income is lower than before. It’s just that buyers know the value of their house will be going nowhere. THE OPPOSITE of 2000 that made the bubble, is making the crash.
Of course, MORE taxes, LESS money for retirement, MORE uncertainty for jobs and health.
Good year to all :)
Of course all predictions for NJ,NY. Also CHEAPER android tablets.
Going to the suggested self-flagellation:
cobbler says:
December 30, 2010 at 10:28 pm
Predictions:
Gold $1,150/toz
WTI $85/bbl
Unemployment 10%
USD = 80 JPY
Case-Shiller minus 8% YOY
I was too pessimistic on UE and Case-Shiller, and underappreciated the gold bugs’ vigor… had it moved together with other precious metals, my number would be right on target. Oil and USD/JPY numbers are reasonably close.
For 2012, there are at least 3 distinct sets of mutually exclusive projections depending on things like Euro disaster, Iran nukes, US elections, etc. As an oddball prediction, may I enter world not ending on 12/21/2012?
With a caveat of not having major external shocks, I’d guess the official UE rate around 8.2%, gold at $1200/toz, WTI at $100/bbl (unchanged), CS at zero.
“O” wins by spending twice the US deficit on his campaign.
Humm my predictions were not too bad for 2011
I’ll rank mine HIT or MISS
Juice Box says:
December 30, 2010 at 12:39 pm
Some predictions for 2011
Equities
Chrysler will launch its IPO lukewarm results (MISS perhaps 2012)
Dunkin Donuts will have a blow out IPO (HIT Dunkin shares gained 47% day one)
Wall St will lay-off 50k workers (HIT actual number is higher)
DOW trades sideways all year (HIT S&P was flat DOW ended up 5.6%)
Real Estate
Case Chiller national additional 9% decline by year end (HIT with year end revisions I may be correct)
Case Chiller New Joisey additional 10% decline by year end (MISS – I will quote Grim “Unfortunately, the NY Metro High Tier (over $463,441) is down
less than 1 percent year over year. The big declines, 7%, were in the low tier areas (under $287,277).
Forclosuremageddon (robosiger, note issues et ALL) continues to drag out in the courts with conflicting rulings ( HIT Still dragging on)
Macroeconomic
U-3 Unemployment 8.5% year end (HIT 8.6 percent as of November of 2011)
Fed Funds Rate unchanged (HIT ZIRP till infinity)
Commodities
Oil – $130 BBl and then drop back to $80 by year end (MISS – Brent range was about 125 – 98)
Gold hits $1800 before a minor correction (HIT – gold passed 1800 and then corrected to about 1525)
Wheat up 30% (MISS)
Corn up 30% (HIT)
Oddball
Snookie does an xxx movie ( MISS however she showed enough of her nether region on MTV this year to make in an X show)
Gingrich is the presumed GOP candidate (MISS)
Saints win the Superbowl (MISS)
Deathpool #1 Nancy Reagan (MISS)
Solar activity burns out a power grid somewhere (MISS)
Northern Lights can be seen from New Jersey (MISS)
Massive wildcat strikes from Government Union Workers (MISS WISCONSIN?)
Still vomiting into a trash can over the Snooki XXX call.
Ok let me see how I did.
RE down 10% in the hinterland. (NW Sussex county) OK, it’s a gimme. Yep, was a gimme.
Gold, silver: either to the moon or get crushed, 30% either way. Could do both over a year just think they have to make a move. Almost on
Unemployment 9-9.5 second half. Blew it.
Pensions remain for those getting them , new deal for future pensioners. Check
Municipal employees also get slapped in other ways , medical etc. Check
Christie does not drop dead much to Essex-es dismay. Check
China bubble busting slowdown there, Aussie dollar gets crushed in process. Give it some time.
USD remains strong as Europe debt continues to plague the Euro.(least smelly pile of sh*t) Check
Oil goes up over 130 causes anemic growth USA then goes down as it puts the economy in the crapper again. (not that it is so good now) Blew the call.
Muni bonds do default not to Whitney’s call level, but never the less action is needed by federal gov. to sure up. ( how far or to what extent they are bailed out unknown, this new congress is yet to be tested) Big miss.
Shore Guy gets taxed more, as do most. (not me I’m poor) For sure!
I smell a VAT but we shall see. We shall see!
Interest rates up not to the moon but6.5 now would sink the ship, actually that is still low.(great time to buy you know!) Nope.
Wild-cards: N/S Korea, Iran, terrorist hit us or some other false flag event. 1 out of two.
Oh come on Meat you want to hit that.
My only prediction for 2012 is that Romney is exposed as the antichrist.
Also, Newcastle United reach the final 16 of Champions League.
mike (36)-
Hit dat wif a pair of brass knucks. And only if I’m wearing a Tyvek suit.
Meat purchased some GOOD beer today, unfortunately went straight to Scotch.
Samuel Smiths Pale Ale & some Blonde stuff made by monks.
37.There Went Meat says:
December 31, 2011 at 8:27 pm
My only prediction for 2012 is that Romney is exposed as the antichrist
“O” already has that spot, and you can’t have two!
Fat Man stumping in Iowa
“Let’s be real clear. Let’s be real clear. President Barack Obama came out to Iowa three years ago, and he talked to you about hope and change. Well, let me tell you, after three years of Obama, we are hopeless and changeless, and we need Mitt Romney to bring us back, to bring America back,” Gov. Chris Christie (R-NJ) said in Iowa today at a Romney rally.
* At the end of the video, while Christie is introducing Romney, an “Occupy” protester starts to chant “You are the 1%” as she is escorted off the premises. The heckler also trips on what seems to be wiring for television networks.
Obama Campaign National Lottery
http://news.yahoo.com/obama-running-national-lottery-raise-campaign-funds-211507714.html;_ylt=Ar3Ta0Uv09jMU.F.9WOb8rqs0NUE;_ylu=X3oDMTNpN25jcXNlBG1pdAMEcGtnA2QzYTgzYjFjLTA4ZDktMzViMy1iZDBmLWNhMmMwMzVkNTQ3MARwb3MDMwRzZWMDbG5fTGF0ZXN0TmV3c19nYWwEdmVyAzlhNjhiYjgwLTM0MTgtMTFlMS1iZDkyLWNhNzJlZTRiMWNhOA–;_ylv=3
Suddenly I am getting email from our President’s reelection campaign.
For the sake of my heart and head, I will have to unsubscribe soon. But in the meantime, ladies and gentlemen, I offer tonight’s NJ Real Estate Comedy Break:
Subject: Enter by midnight tonight
Date: Saturday, December 31, 2011 5:54 PM
From: “Julianna Smoot, BarackObama.com”
Friend —
Today, the last day before 2012, we want to make sure you take the chance to be part of something special.
Before midnight tonight, donate $3 or whatever you can to be automatically entered to have dinner with the President and First Lady sometime soon.
And, don’t forget — if you’re one of the winners, you’ll get to bring a guest along with you.
So, if you’re interested in potentially sitting across from the President and First Lady for a meal sometime soon, this is your very last chance to throw your name in the hat.
Donate $3 to be automatically entered to have dinner with Barack and Michelle:
https://donate.barackobama.com/By-Midnight
Good luck, and happy new year.
-Julianna
Julianna Smoot
Deputy Campaign Manager
Obama for America
******
Does it occur to anyone else that people who can only afford to donate $3 should not be asked to donate anything at all?
Our candidates and our incumbents for sale. It’s both parties, God help us, and things will probably only get worse.
If we had any sense we wouldn’t allow this kind of thing, but we seem more afraid of other things than the influence of money on politics. Nancy Pelosi’s daughter said in a Yahoo story earlier this week that the only thing keeping her mother in Congress (instead of retiring) was loyalty to her donors. I kid you not, her daughter didn’t use those words but she most definitely said “donors” and not “supporters: or “voters” or “constituents.”
Too much – he has to rely on small donors this time. Totals from 08 were 3 million donors, about 85k contributed over $1k with the bulk less than a few hundred dollars.
Game changer this election is the Super Pacs with no limits. I am not so sure the wealthy left will even show up this time since it is their bread and butter that will be affected the most via potential tax increases. A wealthy relative of mine who bundeled allot last time won’t even talk politics now. He was hurt over the last few years both finacially and more importantly philosophically. My belief is this time around people will vote for their wallets instead of with their wallets.
99er?
Will President say “99er” in 2012?
He hasn’t yet, as far as I know. My prediction is that no, he will not.
Will the people who’ve been jobless since 2007, 2008 or 2009 get any substantial additional help?
A government sponsored and subsidized job since most employers won’t touch them with a 10 foot pool, so they can get something new and solid on their resume? NO.
Additional weeks of unemployment? NO
Will the government continue to miss the tax dollars that these folks used to contribute and are dying to contribute again? YES, but that won’t function as any kind of incentive to get the very long term unemployed back on their feet. Far easier (and to some, more satisfying) to continue let these folks struggle helplessly and mostly hopelessly on their own. They will continue to be their families’ problem or the local homeless shelter’s problem.
Immigration: Nothing will be done to lower immigration, even though once again in 2012, I expect there will be more new work visas handed out than new jobs created. One of the sacred assumptions of citizenship that are enjoyed by citizens in just about every other country in the world — that they can rely on the assumption that jobs in their own country are meant to be filled by them, not others — will continue to be denied to U.S. citizens.
Occupy Wall Street — Grow or Disappear? I hope it grows and helps to get some good things started, if not done by December 31, 2012.
mike (41)-
St Bernardus? Val Dieu?
Me like beer made by Belgian monks.
change (48)-
Bojangles is- at his core- a bankster whore. He will never say “99%”.
If he does, his master, Mr. Daley, will bitch slap the taste out of his mouth. Then, Daley will report Bojangles to the real dictator of Amerika, Jamie Dimon.
Meat 49 Leffe , yes belgian.
#23 Chi,
I’ll bypass the low personal blows on my views and sources.
Again you miss the bigger picture “(GINGRICH AND PERRY HAVE BEEN DISCREDITED, HENCE THEIR CHARGES CARRY NO PERMANENCE) ” Mitt most likely will grind out the GOP nomination (although Super Tuesday will be awesome this year for me). Newt (et al) are doing serious damage to him. http://campaign2012.washingtonexaminer.com/blogs/beltway-confidential/newt-ive-disavowed-mandate-romney-hasnt/285111 Any GOP candidate needs that 35% base to have any chance at a win, while Newt and Rick, Michelle, Sarah hold no major national sway, but they have their own niche in the base, that will quite happily stay at home for Mitt.
Since 2008 and in this whole 2012 race I have not, and have no need to stand up here and defend O, because, this discussion can always be framed in the context of the oppositions response to O. I have been in here and listened to people going though the “the seven stages of GOP grief” the funniest of which was the “Maybe O won’t run for a second term!”.
At the end of the day, no opposition is the easiest path to victory.
#38 Clot,
I’ve been nice holding off kicking you on this.
?
Screw the 99…I’m a 101er…… Joe Strummer Lives!
I said “99er” meaning those who’ve reached the maximum 99 weeks of unemployment. The “99er” term never really caught on, unfortunately. My sense is that many 99ers don’t even know they’re 99ers.
Still it’s another stroke of bad luck for the 99ers that the Occupy Wall Street took up the “99%” phrase and now even the people who keep up pretty well with the news assume “99er” refers to those who aren’t the rich 1%.
To quote Clubber Lang 2012 will bring “pain”.
1) Now that Obama has signed the indefinite detention bill it is obvious the Feds are preparing for the worst. They know there’s limited appetite for printing/spending our way out of this mess so they’ll have no choice but to continue to let the slow motion train wreck play out then kill any resistance with billy clubs, pepper spray and tear gas. Bill of rights my @ss.
2) Gerald Celente is predicting a bank holiday at some point in Q1 2012 when this Europe thing finally hits the fan. My question is how much cash do you think you’d need to have around the house in such an event?
3) European Union either completly dissolves or the southern countries are tossed out. This will set markets reeling and probably lead to markets closing for a week.
4) After Europe the bond vigilantes visit Japan and the US in 2013-2015.
5) Ron Paul wins Iowa, Romney wins New Hampshire. Romney gets even more help from the MSM (if that’s possible) branding Paul a “racist”, “whack-job” etc. He gradually distances himself and wins the nomination. Names Condoleeza Rice his VP candidate.
6) Iran and Syria get done – likelay after some trumped up terrorist attack
7) Obama names Clinton new VP
8) Doesn’t matter who wins election as unemployment still around 10%, no recovery insight and blood in the streets
9) Wall Street announces record bonuses after another 30% reduction in headcount
Fab: Why would I succumb to “the seven stages of GOP grief” when I am not a Republican. In fact, to date I have voted in seven Presidential Elections and the count is 7 Democrat nominee / 0 Republican nominee. See below article by Reagan speechwriter:
Fabius Maximus says:
December 31, 2011 at 11:30 pm
#23 Chi,
I have been in here and listened to people going though the “the seven stages of GOP grief” the funniest of which was the “Maybe O won’t run for a second term!”.
DECLARATIONS
DECEMBER 30, 2011
Gingrich Is Making Romney Better
The most memorable campaign line so far isn’t ‘9-9-9’ or ‘Oops.’
By PEGGY NOONAN
So the first third of the Republican presidential race is ending. The first third is the introduction: “This is who I am, this is what I want to do, this is why you want to choose me.”
The campaign is announced, organized, and goes forward in key early states.
The second phase is the long slog through the primary states to the convention next August in Tampa, Fla. The third and final is the election proper, in the autumn of 2012.
***
The first phase was clouded by an overlay of frustration and dissatisfaction: The best weren’t in the game. Mitch Daniels, Paul Ryan, John Thune, Haley Barbour, none of them reporting for duty. But in the past few weeks another mood has begun to dig in: You fight with the army you have. You pick from the possible candidates. You make a choice and back him hard.
Part of this is simple realism. Time is passing, and the contenders have been at least initially inspected. Every four years the potential nominees on either side look smaller than the sitting president who, whether or not you like him, is the president. You’re used to him. He’s on TV. They play Hail to the Chief when he walks in. The office is big and imparts bigness.
But less so this year than past years. There’s a lot of 1980 in the 2012 presidential election, which doesn’t mean it will end the same way, but still. The incumbent looks smaller than previous sitting presidents, as did Jimmy Carter. His efforts in the Oval Office have not been generally understood as successful. There’s a broad sense it hasn’t worked. And Democrats don’t like him, as they didn’t Jimmy Carter.
This continues as one of the most amazing and underappreciated facts of 2012—the sitting president’s own party doesn’t like him. The party’s constituent pieces will stick with him, having no choice, but with a feeling of dissatisfaction. It is not only the Republicans who have been unhappy this year. All this will have some bearing on the coming year.
***
Debates arrived in a new way, with a new power. Candidates rose and fell depending on how they did in nationally televised forums. The whole primary season this year has been more wholesale than retail, more national than local.
In the past, state issues were important, but now only one issue—the nation’s economy—is important. An hour with the Grand Rapids Rotary Club is still nice, but not as nice as an eight-minute, prime-time cable hit. This marks the continuation of a half century-long trend. National trumps local, federal squashes state, the force of national culture washes out local culture. Primaries are fully national now.
The most memorable line of the first phase? There’s “9-9-9” and “Oops,” but the best came from Mitt Romney when he was asked about the Gingrich campaign’s failure to qualify for the Virginia ballot. Mr. Gingrich had compared it to Pearl Harbor, a setback, but we’ll recover. Mr. Romney, breezily, to a reporter: “I think it’s more like Lucille Ball at the chocolate factory.”
It made people laugh. It made them want to repeat it, which is the best free media of all, the line people can’t resist saying in the office. And they laughed because it pinged off a truth: Gingrich is ad hoc, disorganized.
The put-down underscored Romney’s polite little zinger of a week before, that Mr. Gingrich was “zany.” And it was a multi-generationally effective: People who are 70-years-old remember “I Love Lucy,” but so do people who are 30 and grew up with its reruns. Mr. Romney’s known for being organized but not for being deft. This was deft. It’s an old commonplace in politics that if you’re explaining you’re losing, but it’s also true that if they’re laughing you’re losing. The campaign trail has been pretty much a wit-free zone. It’s odd that people who care so much about politics rarely use one of politics’ biggest tools, humor. Mr. Romney did and scored. More please, from everyone.
***
Newt Gingrich in the end will likely prove to be a gift to Mitt Romney. He was a heavyweight. This isn’t Herman Cain, this is a guy everyone on the ground in every primary state knows and has seen on TV and remembers from the past. But his emergence scared a lot of people—”Not him!’—and made some of them think, ‘OK, I guess I better get off the sidelines and make a decision. Compared to Newt, Romney looks pretty reasonable.”
Mr. Gingrich took some of the sting out of Romney-as-flip-flopper because he is a flip flopper too. He also, for a few weeks there, made Mr. Romney look like he might be over. He made Mr. Romney fight for it, not against an unknown businessman but against a serious political figure whose face and persona said: “I mean business.” In the end it will turn out he was a gift to the Romney campaign, a foe big enough that when you beat him it means something.
***
The worst trend in politics that fully emerged during phase one? People running for president not to be president but as a branding exercise, to sell books and get a cable contract and be a public figure and have people who heretofore hadn’t noticed you now stopping you in the airport to get a picture and an autograph. In an endeavor like this you have nothing to lose and everything to gain. You’re not held back by any sense of realism as to your positions, you don’t have to worry about them being used against you down the road because there won’t be a down the road. You can say anything. And because you do you seem refreshing. People start to like you—you’re not like all the others, who are so careful. You rise, run your mouth for a month and fall.
Maybe this is harmless. But America is in crisis. The world is in crisis. Everywhere you look establishments and old arrangements are falling, toppling to the ground. Does it help, in this context, to lower the standing of the American political process by inserting your buffoonish, unserious self into it? Or does it make things just a little bit worse?
***
The continuing mystery of phase one? The failure of Jon Huntsman to gain traction. It’s not precisely a mystery—he didn’t run as a successful conservative two-term governor but as a striped pants diplomat—but it is a frustration. Democrats like him, a lot. New Hampshire has an open primary. Democrats can vote for him there. Maybe they will. But will that make him a contender or an oddity?
What seemed true at the start of phase one seems true now. A number of the Republicans on the debate stage could beat Mr. Obama. But if there is a serious third-party challenger the president will likely be reelected.
Predictions? The essential message of phase one was, “I am a credible candidate, and I can win.” Phase two will be “I not only can win but my victory will have meaning.” Phase three? There will be some “He made it worse.” But watch for another argument. “In a second Obama administration he will be operating without any of the constraints that limited his actions in the first. He will never have to face the voters again. Obama unbound, with interest groups to reward. America, you don’t want to go there.”
New Year’s Resolution: Have a two week supply of food, water and everything you use on a daily basis. All it would take is for something, anything, to disrupt the flow of trucks into your towns and there will be no food, no gas, no money in the ATM’s. We experienced that here in Atlanta last winter but we had warning and knew the storm was coming so everyone was ready.
http://www.state.nj.us/njoem/preparedness_foodwater.html
TCM (16):
The landlord (Libtard) is required to make an effort to find a replacement tenant. If none is found, the renter on the lease is responsible to pay the rent. If they choose not to, you take them to court and ruin their credit after using their security to pay the first vacant months rent. The unit will be listed tomorrow. We do not anticipate any problems getting it rented. Last August, in 4 days, we had 30 walk-throughs and three offers. Two of which were above our asking rent which we thought was easily $200 too high. This time, we have a month to get it filled, not 4 days. Annoying part is doing the paperwork and the clean out.
I vow that if the election year politics get too crazy here, I will leave and be back in December. It slays me how much the sheep eat this krap up. Neither party represents us. Stop wasting time making believe they do. Baa Baa.
This is a bunch of crap, which I’ll refute one by one:
1) Obama is a Muslim socialist and the focus needs to stay the hell on that. Who the hell cares about detention of terrorists. He only signed that bill because the patriots in the republican party forced him too.
2) I hate Celente and wish he’d sit the hell down and STFU. He’s very unpatriotic and is a damn scare monger. I hope everyone gets their damn money back from MF Global except him. I’d like to see him detained.
3) If EU wasn’t populated with a bunch of damn socialist governments they wouldn’t have any damn problems. They made their damn bed hard, now sleep in it.
4) This problem will be contained to Europe until they reform their socialist ways. I believe in American exceptionalism and if you were a true patriot, you’d believe it too rather than being a stinking doom and gloomer.
5) Ron Paul is a damn wimp and another Gerald Celente. This man doesn’t need to be anywhere near the presidency. Michelle Bachman and Rick Santorum are the best of the damn bunch. Shlt, if Romney wins and beats Obama, we still have a damn liberal.
6) Iran and Syria need to get done like damn yesterday. Russia, China and Venezuela also need to get done. I support a robust foreign policy and it’s a damn good thing the tea party controls the house, otherwise none of this would be happening. Obama isn’t driving any of this.
7) That heifer doesn’t need to be anywhere near the vice presidency. That would mean another term for her stinking philandering husband and we don’t need that.
8) That’s why they need this damn detention. We’ve got too many damn people who want to get political and threaten blood in the damn streets. This damn OWS movement in particular needs to be watched and put down hard. These people are a bunch of leftist commies who need to take a damn bath. They believe in free love and are a bunch of dope heads.
9) There’s nothing wrong with Wall Street getting paid. What’s good for Goldman Sachs is good for the United States and I’m prepared to die so they have the freedom to make money. When you’re facing a man not afraid to die for freedom, you are indeed facing a very tough nut to crack. You stinking liberals want too many damn government regulations. Get the hell out of the way and sit your ass down. Let business fix the damn problems.
>>>Dissident HEHEHE says:
January 1, 2012 at 9:38 am
To quote Clubber Lang 2012 will bring “pain”.
1) Now that Obama has signed the indefinite detention bill it is obvious the Feds are preparing for the worst. They know there’s limited appetite for printing/spending our way out of this mess so they’ll have no choice but to continue to let the slow motion train wreck play out then kill any resistance with billy clubs, pepper spray and tear gas. Bill of rights my @ss.
2) Gerald Celente is predicting a bank holiday at some point in Q1 2012 when this Europe thing finally hits the fan. My question is how much cash do you think you’d need to have around the house in such an event?
3) European Union either completly dissolves or the southern countries are tossed out. This will set markets reeling and probably lead to markets closing for a week.
4) After Europe the bond vigilantes visit Japan and the US in 2013-2015.
5) Ron Paul wins Iowa, Romney wins New Hampshire. Romney gets even more help from the MSM (if that’s possible) branding Paul a “racist”, “whack-job” etc. He gradually distances himself and wins the nomination. Names Condoleeza Rice his VP candidate.
6) Iran and Syria get done – likelay after some trumped up terrorist attack
7) Obama names Clinton new VP
8) Doesn’t matter who wins election as unemployment still around 10%, no recovery insight and blood in the streets
9) Wall Street announces record bonuses after another 30% reduction in headcount<<<
Jill (39): from a couple of days ago:
Rental is near the Walnut NJ Transit stop. $2250 rent + heat and electric. Visit Keller Williams in Montclair for the listing.
Shore: Cable negotiations. Haven’t needed to do this for a while as I locked in the two year contract at an excellent price (w/ the free dvr). I’ll have to play the game next Summer though. Nom is right. Simply present the best offer (usually from Direct TV) and ask them why you would continue using them if Direct TV is cheaper. You must ask to have your service terminated usually to get them going.
Here’s to the new year. Same old shit as last year.
It’s all going down the tubes. Maybe Peggy Noonan can coin a catchy theme for the hell on earth we’re hurtling toward.
People of WalMart:
LEXINGTON, N.C. (AP) — Do you have change for a million-dollar bill?
Police say a North Carolina man insisted his million-dollar note was real when he was buying $476 worth of items at a Walmart.
Investigators told the Winston-Salem Journal (http://bit.ly/u7ZrEN ) that 53-year-old Michael Fuller tried to buy a vacuum cleaner, a microwave oven and other items. Store employees called police after his insistence that the bill was legit, and Fuller was arrested.
The largest bill in circulation is $100. The government stopped making bills of up to $10,000 in 1969.
Fuller was charged with attempting to obtain property by false pretense and uttering a forged instrument. He is in jail on a $17,500 bond, and it isn’t clear if he has an attorney. He is scheduled to be in court Tuesday.
A friend and former colleague just bought this house.
http://www.trulia.com/homes/New_Jersey/Millburn/sold/862234-48-Greenwood-Dr-Millburn-NJ-07041
1850sf for $850,000
He was formerly in a larger but less expensive house in S.Orange.
Should I offer congratulations or condolences?
What is just the right housewarming gift for a new bagholder?
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A. West [66]
Based on the previous sale price from 1999 and the property taxes, he overpaid 300-350K or so as there doesn’t seem to be a lot of renovation done on the house. I guess you have to congratulate him as (a) he is well off enough to not care about $300K, and (b) he obviously loves the house – for the same money even paying the list price he could have gotten many better houses in Millburn.
i cant believe that you are failing once again and again , even a monkey can do it http://imn4.info
[66]
what? this house went for $333K in 1999 and he paid $850K today? What is so special about it? Since he lived in SO then he must know the area well…
Chi,
Allow me.
FUKING JETS.
I have to take my damn hat off for this patriotic American who spent that kind of money to move up in life. This is a real inspiring story and I only wish he had bought my damn house.
>>A.West says:
January 1, 2012 at 2:48 pm
A friend and former colleague just bought this house.
http://www.trulia.com/homes/New_Jersey/Millburn/sold/862234-48-Greenwood-Dr-Millburn-NJ-07041
1850sf for $850,000
He was formerly in a larger but less expensive house in S.Orange.
Should I offer congratulations or condolences?<<
Damn and he bought in Millburn/Short Hills. I’d kill someone just to be in that town rubbing shoulders with the damn elite. Hell, that’s worth going from a big house to a smaller one while paying more money. His damn taxes are worth it too because his kids are going to be exposed to the elite at the best damn school system in the damn country. Hell, he got a damn good deal.
Moving to mill burn only makes sense for kids. I lived in mill burn years ago. Had no idea about trash on demand either.
[66]
taxes are pretty good too at 11,500. He might have overpaid $100k-$150K but certainly not $300K. The houses that go for $550K in millburn are much worse.
I’ll hold off making comment on John’s predictions until after the giants boys game tonight.
I wish you a year full of achievements in 2012 on all levels!
A.West [66],
Did your friend use someone else’s money to buy that house? He just over-paid by $300,000. Does he realize he’s chained to that house for a very long time? Oh my G0d, I hope he has plenty to spare. P.T. Barnum would be proud.
Tebow’s prayer answered
Glad to be a renter in 2012. This year started with a busted hot water pipe coming to the master bathroom. Woke up and found water dripping from the ceiling in the living room. 2 hrs later Super fixed it with a temporary patch.
Another 5-10% down for RE in NJ is coming this year, that’s for sure.
Here’s basically the same house listed for 379K that needs work. For 100K, you can turn this house into the so-called 849K house and keep almost $400,000 in net worth. Geezus, it just boggles the senses!
http://www.trulia.com/property/3062918162-6-Rahway-Rd-Millburn-NJ-07041
Gary even if it is not on as nice a block for half the price………….
Maybe the guy is uber wealthy & doesn’t care, that or a smuck.
850,000 for that, will be shaking my head for days.
Firestormik 81 I am also, will see that 10% out here in the hinterlands.
OK time for the Giants. Jets su*k, too bad would have like to see them go another round.
F*ck Tony Romo. I hope JPP breaks his hand.
Not everyone is getting their pennies to scream before they spend some damn money and some people want to move into a damn house that’s ready rather than to fuss with fixing the damn thing up. That house looks junky and if it were me, I’d would have spent the money to get what the hell I want. Besides, spending more money helps the damn economy. Not everyone is a cheapskate and he’s not under water. This is Millburn/Short Hills dammit.
>>>gary says:
January 1, 2012 at 7:42 pm
Here’s basically the same house listed for 379K that needs work. For 100K, you can turn this house into the so-called 849K house and keep almost $400,000 in net worth. Geezus, it just boggles the senses!
http://www.trulia.com/property/3062918162-6-Rahway-Rd-Millburn-NJ-07041<<<
RE: reinvestor101
I’ll get this damn house for the damn $50K in 2013.
A west, $476 a sq ft, I’m speechless. Is there a portal to another dimension on the first floor? Otherwise, he got hosed.
Barb dead on.
Yeah. There must be oil in the backyard. Just wow. Maybe housing has bottomed? :P
Giants kicking A**, go figure.
Twilight Zone was running “TO Serve Man” again. Love the part where she yells at the end, don’t get on the ship, it’s a cook book! A definate parallel to todays Government. They also say they intend to serve us. Soylent Green wise I guess.
#57 Chi,
That’s funny, is Peggy saying that Newt is a stalking horse to make Mitt look good? Overall nice puff piece.
I’ll take the view from a little further down the political food chain.
http://www.tampabay.com/blogs/the-buzz-florida-politics/content/primary-could-be-hurting-gop-november
Im millburn south of the train tracks is considered a slum. If you are not north of
The playhouse then your kid is Molly Ringwald in Pretty in Pink.
Chi
And while Mitt will get the eventual nod, the right aren’t done yet!
Anti-Romney conservatives face calls to coalesce
http://www.politico.com/news/stories/1211/70983.html
Rick is coming to the rescue the right!
http://www.politico.com/blogs/burns-haberman/
Libtard #62: Thanks for the info. My colleague has already balked at $1850 for my neighbor’s 2BR condo in Ft. Lee, so $2250 is out I think, even though it’s closer to work.
I went into the reasons in more detail in the “2012 bottom” post, but in summary, most housing measures in general are at historical levels, and will be influenced by the general economy, particularly unemployment, whose outlook is fairly favorable. On the contraside, I believe pending foreclosures will keep price growth to a minimum for a long time.
That said, I say that prices will be up slightly at year end, with maybe a 1% increase.
I undoubtedly didnt recognize that. Learnt some thing new nowadays! Thanks for that. 874348