Quite a bit of economic data to be released the second half of this month. Here is a glimpse of the pertinent data I’ll be reporting on:
1/18 – CPI & Core CPI
1/19 – Housing Starts & Building Permits
1/25 – Existing Home Sales
1/27 – GDP & Chain Deflator
1/27 – New Home Sales
1/30 – Personal Income & Spending (Savings Rate)
1/31 – FOMC Policy Statement (Fed Rate Hike)
I’d love to get some predictions from readers that are familiar with these economic reports/statistics.
Caveat Emptor!
Grim
Grim:
Yeeeehaa! Someone is going to look like a serious ——–.
“It’s the supernova borough,”
http://www.nypost.com/news/regionalnews/61648.htm
No Sleep Til… Brooklyn!
Hey, I’ve got no problem with builders.. Builders are going to build when they can. The fact that they are building at supernova pace is a sign of an efficient market.
They’ll continue to build at a blistering pace for fear of missing out on possible market share. Once the bust comes, many will be able to liquidate remaining inventory at a significant discount to due their wide margins, others may not fare so well.
At that point we’ll see downsizing and M&A activity while the builders retrench and prepare for the next cycle.
C’est la vie!
Estimates on upcoming US data:
CPI on the 18th should show an overall rise of .4 from last months fall of .6, and core should show a .1 jump over last month’s .2 rise (as price for oil declined somewhat in December).
Housing starts is a tough one. IFR claims a fall to 2.0 million from 2.12 (which would indeed be significant to continuing to prove tough times are ahead for housing) and existing home sales look to be down .07 to 6.9 on the 25th. Too difficult to call the other data at this time, but once we get closer, I’d be happy to post estimates.
-Ivan