Time to continue with the North Jersey Weekly Residential Inventory Update.
GSMLS (SFH, Condo, Coop)
Bergen, Essex, Hudson, Morris, Passaic, Somerset, Sussex, Union, Warren Counties
1/11 – 11385
1/18 – 11696 (2.7% Increase this week, 6.2% since Jan 1)
NJMLS (SFH, Condo, Coop)
Bergen, Essex, Hudson, Passaic Counties
1/11 – 5370
1/18 – 5565 (3.6% Weekly Increase)
MLSGuide (SFH, Condo, Coop, does not include Multis)
Hudson County
1/11 – 1735
1/18 – 1782 (2.7% Weekly Increase)
Inventory is picking up pretty rapidly. A quick glance at the stats looks like it’s a combination between sales dropping off quickly and new inventory coming on. I am going to dig a little deeper into details, look for an update in a few days.
Caveat Emptor!
Grim
steady increases in inventory in Westchester County, NY too, but asking prices don’t seem to have dropped at all.
looks like the beginning of a glut
is it possible to get similar data from the Trends MLS databased, which includes Mercer county. I know it is borderline Northern NJ, but people still work in the City that live there.
If this trend started in the west, and prices were flat or declining in Dec … then expect it to FULLY hit New Jersey by late Feb/early March.
Right now we’re just seeing stuff sitting on the market and the price reductions are small … my guess it they really pick up in the spring, maybe there’s a ‘dead cat bounce’ in early summer’ when people THINK they are getting deals, but STILL overpaying … and then come fall/winter, people who hadn’t moved their house, BUT NEED TO, will be the ones who panic and sell to the first bid, no matter how low.
That’s just a guess.
I would like to echo trout’s hope that you might be able to include Mercer county data if possible; lots of City commuters live here & if you look at a map Princeton appears to be the outer extent of the nyc metro area.
special aside to real estate rox: thanks for your advice in an earlier posting regarding trends in Mercer County listings, pending sales & sales. Very helpful.
– Cass
I’m in process of buying a townhome in Nutley.
The bad: All the “crash” talk flying around gives me agita. It is a bit confusing since I neither have a crystal ball nor the economic-forecasting chops.
The good: We are going doing it the old-fashioned way – 20% down, 30-yr loan and intend to stay there for a while.
For the armchair economists on this board: what do you’ll make of the school of thought that says prices may soften or go down some but after each such cycle the plateau is raised, i.e., prices don’t revert to previous levels.
A recent NY times magazine article said NJ will be the first state in the country to be fully built out within the next few years. It also mentioned that Europeans live in smaller houses and pay a lot more for it and that US may be headed in the same direction.
Also, isn’t NNJ heavily dependent on NYC’s economy? If the NYC job market is booming would prices drop even if the bubble bursts in places like Miami? Conversely, if NYC suffers economic downturn how badly would it hurt RE in this area, all other things being equal?
Again, these aren’t my opinions. I’m just interested in what the pundits on this board have to say.
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