From the Record:
Homeowners in Teaneck’s most modest neighborhoods stand to absorb the biggest tax increases this year while those in wealthier areas will get a break as a result of updates to the property tax rolls that will shift the burden from higher-end parts of town.
The shift is the result of a state-mandated revaluation, aimed at updating outdated assessments on all properties in the town so that owners pay their fair share of taxes to support municipal, school and Bergen County government services.
For some in modest neighborhoods, the shift will be seismic, with some tax bills increasing upward of $2,000. Others will not notice much of a change from last year. For still others on more stately blocks, and commercial property owners, taxes will go up by smaller amounts and could even drop.
Residents will not receive their tax bills until this summer, when 2007-08 tax rates are set. But a computerized analysis of the new assessments by The Record found that if the property tax levy in Teaneck rises the same amount in 2007 as it did in 2006 — 6.5 percent — typical homeowners in more modest neighborhoods, such as the northeast section of town, will see much more than a 6.5 percent tax increase. Instead, they will likely feel the pinch of at least a 15 percent hike and, possibly, increases of 20, 30 and even 40 percent.
…
The situation has northeast resident Kimberly France on edge. France’s two-bedroom, one-bathroom colonial on Fairview Avenue was newly assessed at $330,800, up from $119,200 – a 178 percent increase, which was far more than the townwide median of 132 percent.France will face a $1,571, or 28 percent, tax increase if this year’s tax levy jumps another 6.5 percent. (Taxes went up 5.4 percent in 2005, and 5.5 percent in 2004.)
“I’m not making the kind of money where an extra $1,600 is not going to make a difference,” said France, an office worker. “I know a lot of families on my block that are struggling. It’s got me scared.”
France said she will probably look for a second job to help make ends meet.
Sherri Scott said she understood why the assessment on her Garden Street home increased 163 percent, from $131,300 to $345,600. “The house is definitely worth more than $130,000,” Scott said.
Still, Scott said she worries about how she and her friends and neighbors will cope with the large increases. Scott is facing a 22 percent, or $1,328, tax increase if the levy jumps the same amount as last year.
“The taxes are going to run people out of town,” Scott said. “In a few years when I retire I’m going to have to leave Teaneck.”
From the Asbury Park Press:
“Tax relief” package fails to repair tax system
Maybe the best way to look at the “tax relief” package just adopted by the Legislature is as the last act of the 2005 campaign, rather than the solution for New Jersey’s over-reliance on local property taxes to pay for government services and educating children.
Such a context makes it a bit easier to understand, and to accept on its own terms, while recognizing this is far from the reform New Jersey needs.
Jon Corzine ran for governor with a promise to reduce property taxes, in response to his opponent having put forward a plan. In his first year in office as governor, Corzine made it clear that more had to be done to get the state’s finances in order before he could deliver on property taxes. In year two, he and the Legislature will be able to tell most New Jersey households that 20 percent will be knocked off their property taxes. Basing the amount of relief on income makes sense, and for most people we’re talking about a rather meaningful amount of money, at least for as long as the funding source holds up.
But now it’s time to get serious.
The special legislative session that produced 98 recommendations and laid the groundwork for the 20 percent reduction covered a lot of ground. There were flashes of vision and courage when it came to confronting the problems New Jersey inherently perpetuates by dividing itself into so many municipalities and school districts — an 18th century system ill-suited to today’s needs.
Unfortunately, some of the boldest proposals (like a pilot program creating a countywide school district) wound up on the cutting room floor in the scramble to find enough votes for the tax relief.
…
Real reform of the tax system would put all of this on the table. And it would also accept the fact that as bad as New Jersey’s tax system is (and it is), it is really a symptom of the larger problem: 566 municipalities and 613 school districts — an archaic, unsustainable structure more reminiscent of the Ottoman Empire than a 21st century state.
Real reform means looking not just at how much New Jersey spends, but where we spend it and who we call on to pay it. An honest assessment of tax burdens that squarely confronts who pays how much, and in which taxes, would point the way out of the morass. It would recognize the value of raising and spending more of our resources at the state and even county level and less locally. It’s the sort of thing that a tax convention made up of citizens would have no trouble contemplating but which elected politicians keep avoiding.
Whether you want to spend half as much as the state spends now, or twice as much, New Jersey needs a fair, adequate way to raise the money. We don’t have it now and we aren’t much closer to it than we were a month ago.
From the Philly Inquirer:
Who lost in N.J. tax decision: You, the taxpayer
When academic, political and news-media analysts sift through the Legislature’s actions on property-tax relief, they usually reduce their conclusions to the most basic level: who won and who lost.
Here’s my verdict.
The winners: All special interest groups involved. They gave up nothing and preserved the status quo, which has served them well for years.
The losers: The property taxpayers. Again.
Despite proclamations by Gov. Corzine and Senate President Richard J. Codey of Essex County that “the people won,” the reality is:
The property-tax credit is a warmed-over version of the homestead rebate.
The 4 percent cap on property-tax rate increases is a web of waivers and exemptions held intact by a fragile thread of restraint.
The office of state comptroller is expensive and powerless.
A refashioned formula for state aid to local education – the largest consumer of property taxes – is off the table.
Dual-officeholding and multiple public jobs for pension padding continue unchanged.
Cost savings reforms in the state’s pension and health benefits system have been taken out of the Legislature’s hands and tossed onto the bargaining table, where they will die quickly.
The property-tax credit is a one-year program with no guarantee it can be sustained.
Shared services and consolidation fell victim to local officials’ obsession with preserving their municipal identification.
Goldman Sachs housing conference audio and slides. A must-view, even though it’s 6.5 hours long. Enjoy.
http://www.iian.ibeam.com/events/gold006/21502/
jb
Lol I was bringing it up in a few posts back – what is town re-evaluate your property at real Market rate??? It seems to be starting. Now in NJ nobody will convince me to buy unless it is actually cheaper that in the other states with lower taxes.
The Goldman link is worthwhile, despite it’s length. If you start at slide 15 and watch for a few minutes you’ll get the bulk of the existing homes forecast.
jb
http://home.businesswire.com/portal/site/google/index.jsp?ndmViewId=news_view&newsId=20070213005571&newsLang=en
..Credit Suisse has agreed to acquire certain assets of ResMAE. Concurrent with the signing, ResMAE has voluntarily filed a petition for reorganization under Chapter 11 of the U.S. Bankruptcy Code.
A reader emailed me inquiring about loan consolidation. The reader has a good bit of high rate credit card debt as well some pretty high rate loans for education. Reader willing to pay, and is paying, but is struggling under the weight of an average rate of 18%.
Does anyone know of any options to consolidate into a lower rate loan?
jb
Hard to believe that we are not number 1. However, we do beat out Taxachusetts.
“The state that pays the most in combined state, local and federal taxes, per capita, is Connecticut (35.9%), followed by New York (35.1%), New Jersey (34.3%)”
http://articles.moneycentral.msn.com/Taxes/Advice/TheBestAndWorstStatesForTaxes.aspx
I believe that is not including RE taxes.
Also their way to calculate state sale taxes is flawed as well – in Colorado for example they are listing 2.6% sales tax – but that is only state tax. Locally, tehre is additional sales taxes determined by county. For example in Greater Denver metro area 2 years ago total sale tax was at 6.99%.
quite a big difference from 2.6 they have listed.
Hey Noel, if you are still reading, drop me an email.
jb
Star-Ledger
Corzine sets sights on global warming
Gov. Jon Corzine today will issue an executive order that lays out stringent, new long-term goals to curb greenhouse gas emissions and portends a slew of new state regulations going far beyond improved gas mileage for cars.
Corzine has ordered the state Department of Environmental Protection in the next six months to draft a comprehensive plan for reducing emissions 20 percent by 2020 and 80 percent by 2050 statewide, according to a draft of the order obtained by The Star-Ledger.
Those are lofty goals by almost every measure. California is the only other state to set such aggressive targets on greenhouse gas emissions
http://www.nj.com/news/ledger/index.ssf?/base/news-11/1171345603213500.xml&coll=1
Global warming is a real problem, but it requires a national, and really an international, solution. NJ on its own has a negligible impact on climate change. This is just another example of NJ doing the politically correct thing at the expense of its economy.
“U.S. trade gap widens to $61.2 bln in Dec
Deficit sets record in 2006 despite progress in Q4”
“Imports increased 2.1% to $186.7 billion. December exports rose 0.6% to $125.5 billion.
Imports of goods alone rose 3.8% to $186.7 billion.
The U.S. imported a record amount of autos and auto parts and consumer goods.
Exports of goods alone rose 0.4% to $89.4 billion.”
http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/economic-report-us-trade-gap/story.aspx?guid=%7B8DD649F8%2DA78B%2D4F53%2D8D39%2D15B6F6DD6983%7D
I’d assume it does include RE taxes as the no income tax states are listed with some decent percentages. Plus pure NJ state tax rates are lower than that shown.
Ex-Islander,
The calculation was based on state,local and federal taxes.
Property taxes: Where does your state rank?
http://articles.moneycentral.msn.com/Taxes/Advice/PropertyTaxesWhereDoesYourStateRank.aspx
NJ is by far the worst, at 5,352$ , next one New Hampshire 3,920:
So NJ over 1300$ more than number 2.
Look at the other states: most states are below 2000$ .
NJ homes valued at 333,900 or in average income terms: 4.2 income (almost 80K average homeowner income).
NH homes are at 240,100, or at 3.59 income(66.8K). Also NJ residents are paying a lot higher tax bracket….
And As I said: Homeowners: look forward to your home reevaluations this year and next.
re #6 jb,
http://articles.moneycentral.msn.com/Communities/asktheexperts.aspx
credit counseling from a non profit organization.
Would also recommend articles by Liz Pulliam Weston and articles about debt management on Motley Fool Website.
other unusual, helpful (but ridiculously labor intensive) involve transferring credit card debt to cards with 0% opening rates — but transferring them before the rates adjust upwards — to another low or zero percent teaser card.
I know of atleast one co-worker who is juggling a $5K debt this way. You can save on the high interest but you have to be excruciatingly meticulous about making the transfers so you don’t get clobbered.
The best management however is setting a budget, cutting out every extra expense as possible and paying off the highest interest credit cards soonest.
Most student loan companies have hardship deferments or forebearance and speaking to them directly may provide some options.
Just my two cents. (from someone who paid down close to 90K in med school debt and is currently completely debt free.)
sl
Funny tax facts 9Probably does not belong to the tax forum, but still funny):
from MSN
http://articles.moneycentral.msn.com/Taxes/Advice/BribesTheftsAndOtherTaxableIncome.aspx?page=2
Bribes. If you receive a bribe, include it in your income.
Found property. If you find and keep property that does not belong to you that has been lost or abandoned (treasure-trove), it is taxable to you at its fair market value in the first year it is your undisputed possession.
( 10$ I found last week are taxable…)
Illegal income, such as money from dealing illegal drugs, must be included in your income on Form 1040, line 21, or on Schedule C or Schedule C-EZ (Form 1040) if from your self-employment activity.
Stolen property. If you steal property, you must report its fair market value in your income in the year you steal it unless, in the same year, you return it to its rightful owner.
Sale of personal items. If you sold an item you owned for personal use, such as a car, refrigerator, furniture, stereo, jewelry or silverware, your gain is taxable as a capital gain. Report it on Schedule D (Form 1040). You cannot deduct a loss.
However, if you sold an item you held for investment, such as gold or silver bullion, coins or gems, any gain is taxable as a capital gain, and any loss is deductible as a capital loss.
Example: You sold a painting on an online auction Web site for $100. You bought the painting for $20 at a garage sale years ago. Report your gain as a capital gain on Schedule D (Form 1040).
(Ohh, the snowboard I bought 5 years ago during big sale at Garts sports, used it for 1 year and sold for 100$ more than what I have paid for it…. Should have paid taxes on it….)
Anybody see’s themselves evading taxes here??
This phenomenon isn’t limited to Teaneck. Starter homes and other houses on the lower end of the scale experienced much greater rates of appreciation than higher end homes and commercial and industrial real estate over the last 6 years.
In diverse municipalities with a mix of starter and upper end homes and commercial real estates, people with smaller homes could see a big jump in taxes if they haven’t been reassessed recently. Commercial RE owners might actually see a drop in property taxes.
Anyone looking to buy a starter home should be aware of this. If the town is overdue for a reassessment, you could get hammered with a huge tax increase.
Please note, it is federal income taxes which make NJ a tax demon. Our state and local rate is bad, but not horrendous. Check the chart with the article, those freewheeling, independent and financially scrupulous states of Nebraska and Ohio have higher local/state tax rates than we do.
Everybody’s seeming destination of choice (North Carolina) is essentially the same as us.
Now New Yorkers have some taxes to whine about…
It is going to beinteresting to see how the re-vals go. Towns that have already done the re-val are now reflecting the new tax reality.
Other towns have not done it yet. For instance Oradell is not doing theri re-val until 09, and I belive the landscape for house values will look radically different at that time.
They wil reassess lower, but simply raise the tax rate to collect the higher taxes, what will look odd howver, is that some affluent towns assessed values will be lower than towns that are not as affluent.
With the tax revals, homeowners who have recently gone through one have to keep their eye on comprables in their town. If similar houses in their town sell for considerably less than their assessed value, they can and should appeal their assessment. Now, if everyone in the town does this, then it will probably have a net effect of zero as far as amount of taxes paid but if just a few savvy people do it, they could save themselves a lot of money. Since my town was reassessed in 2004, houses are generally still being sold for above assessment. Once the prices go below assessment value, then the appeals are going to start.
JB: Great find on Goldman Housing Conference. Enjoying every bit of it.
I really can’t feel sorry for anybody living in new Jersey…you stupid people keep voting in the crooks …Menendez is your latest victory,are people in N.J.that ignorant ,I just find it hard to believe that they keep putting up with this stuff .I moved mot from Monmouth Co 2 years ago My taxes were $17,000,I knew it was time to pack up thr family and leave,because they would get a real ban within 5 years (looks like it happining sooner ) I am so glad I did.
re post #6 and #16
I’m not sure the roll-over method would be open to someone currently getting killed on interest rates because they may have some issues that preclude that.
Credit counseling is certainly a good idea and most of the disreputable outfits who were doing it have been driven out of business. No guarantee, but a reference to a non-profit CC agency from a government or well established non-profit social services agency might be useful.
Consolidating on a single card at even 12% would provide significant savings, but as SL noted, the discipline to stop spending is where this all begins.
Back to the tax thing…
It looks like many states pick up a few basis points on us by having a much lower tobacco tax… and we probably gain on them with the lower gas tax.
Also, keep in mind that many states apply their sales tax far more broadly (food and clothes) than we do.
In my case a 5% sales tax on food would likely tack $500-$600 onto my tax bill (about 10% of my property tax bill).
“..high rate credit card debt as well some pretty high rate loans for education..”
You didn’t mention the level of high rate debt you’re servicing, but you need to ensure you’re not missing out on any opps to lower monthly payments. If you can lower the monthly, then you can apply the net savings to the prin on the higher.
1.Student loan consolidation eligible?
http://studentaid.ed.gov/PORTALSWebApp/students/english/consolidation.jsp?tab=repaying
2. Visit many of the consumer credit counseling sites for links to the standard debt reduction process. Search on: non-profit credit counseling.
3. You can do this thing the hard way – pay, pay, pay and always be at risk of a major catastrophe (and even Chapter 13), or you can get creative and daring and do it the smart way.
Really take a look at your earnings and your job. Can you increase your current earnings at your current job by 20%? Have you asked? Have you applied for openings at higher pay? Think about leaving and taking a higher-paying job. If you make $40k a year, and could get a job for $60k, you could kill your credit debt a lot faster than the pay/pay/pay method. And chances are, you’ll keep that income level going forward. The trick is not to spend it on anything but the debt, until this is under control.
Ex-Islander Says:
February 13th, 2007 at 8:37 am
Potvin Sucks!
From Marketwatch:
KB Home swings to quarterly loss
KB Home said Tuesday it swung to a loss in the fourth quarter as the company booked massive land charges as expected, but the company offered at least a ray of hope for the housing market as its cancellation rate declined slightly.
The Los Angeles-based home builder reported a loss of $49.6 million, or 64 cents a share, for the fourth quarter ended Nov. 30, driven by previously announced land charges of $343.3 million.
In a statement, Chief Executive Jeffrey Mezger said during the second half of 2006, “an oversupply of unsold new and resale homes, reduced affordability, and greater caution among potential homebuyers heightened competition among home builders and sellers of existing homes, prompting the aggressive use of price concessions and sales incentives.”
The result was pressure on profit margins, while results “were further affected by declining land values and the resulting charges we recorded in the fourth quarter to reflect lower land values,” the CEO added.
KB Home said net orders fell 38% in the fourth quarter to 6,059 homes. Its cancellation rate for the latest quarter dropped to 48% from 53% in the third quarter. In
KB Home said net orders fell 38% in the fourth quarter to 6,059 homes. Its cancellation rate for the latest quarter dropped to 48% from 53% in the third quarter. In the fourth quarter of 2005, the cancellation rate was 31%, the company said.
Many of the lower range properties I search in towns like Cranford and Westfield show ratios of sales to assessments at 20% to 25% for more recent (last year or two) transactions. The tax reeval issue is clearly a landmine. The last town-wide tax reassessment in Westfield was 1986!, and I’m guessing that’s close for some of the other surrounding Union County towns.
I would absolutely caution against Consumer Credit Counseling as a first choice! They may negotiate lower interest rates on credit cards, but a CCC notation will appear on credit reports –which will not only result in lower credit scores, but will be viewed by lenders as the equivalent of a bankruptcy.
“ray of hope for the housing market as its cancellation rate declined slightly”
Ray of hope??? Hah!! They’ve gone from a 53% cancellation rate to 48%. YOY, the cancellation rate is up over 50%. Sounds like buying a crashing stock and closing your eyes, praying for that ray of hope.
My last word on taxes…
Education is the largest single line item supported by local/state taxes.
Number 2 is law enforcement. I don’t have the exact cost breakdown, but a quick look shows NJ has a much higher ratio of law enforcement employees (LEE) to population than just about every state but New York:
http://www.fbi.gov/ucr/05cius/data/table_77.html
if you’re interested.
As an example, we have 1 LEE for every 207 people
North Carolina has 1 LEE for every 284 people.
South Carolina has 1 LEE for every 276 people.
Maine has 1 LEE for every 457 people.
Very conservatively, we spend an extra $500M on Law enforcement (could be $800M), almost all of it paid for by property taxes.
Lindsey Says:
February 13th, 2007 at 9:32 am
re post #6 and #16
Credit counseling is certainly a good idea and most of the disreputable outfits who were doing it have been driven out of business. No guarantee, but a reference to a non-profit CC agency from a government or well established non-profit social services agency might be
useful.
L: credit counseling is almost ubiquitously not a good idea
the bad news is for the person with mounting debts……stop spending money that you do not have…..it is really as simple as that……I know there can be issues related to health and unforseen events…..that aside…..you need to bear down and face reality…..go here first
http://www.annualcreditreport.com
get the reports and make sure everything is accurate
get your FICO score
if possible, transfer to lower rate cards
BE CAREFUL – avoid balance transfer fees, or if you pay, make sure that the fee is capped at something modest
otherwise
BAD NEWS…….stop spending and face reality
I have a question regarding anyone’s NJ MLS observations for the week.
Are townhouse/condo listings getting a real make-over in any NJ areas, as they are in PA? Lots of edited listings and relistings appear. Price reductions are not there, though, relative to the original listing date and the total inventory.
On Sunday and Monday, the relisted and newly listed houses came on, then today, all the townhouses.
#21 Willow And than the town will just increase the tax rate. If a town needs to collect X amount of dollars evry year, that will not change.
The tax assessor will simply reassess down, and increase the tax rate, so that the town continues to collect the same amount of money.
I own a commercial building in Teaneck. I bought it 6 years ago. At first the tax was around $6000. I did the renovation and the tax jumped to $8000.
Now, the tax is around $16000. I wonder whether it’s going to go up more or not. Time to sell the building?
school funding must be funded elswhere,Abbott districts take up move than 55% of a towns school tax.look at your tax bill and see what your paying in school tax .your town only gets .45 cents out of every $1.00 you pay ….it’s unreal !
Anybody with a minute to spare, would you mind posting the history of MLS# 20703971
I have absolutely no interest, but I’ve been driving by on the way to/from work for about a year and swear it’s been on the market for that long.
Seen it go through at least 2 realtor signs and quite sure it’s been vacant for some time.
It’s totally out of place with other houses on the street (which there are also a few for sale).
Just curious what it’s all about!
thanks in advance
Number 2 is law enforcement
This goes back to NJ’s 566 little kingdoms; each with their own police chief, lieutenants, detectives, dispatchers & fully staffed departments. The town I used to live in actually lost population, but the police force continued to grow. Law enforcement is one area ripe for consolidation and sharing.
Not only do we have more LE per capita, but they also make a lot more in NJ.
#38 Big Al: I agree, but the likelihood fo that happeining any time soon is sliem to none.
Another big problem, that people can do something about is the massive refererendums people have approved for school construction over the last few years.
People have got to start saying NO!, instead of being spooked by clueless local school boards, who tell them that if they vote no, their property values will go down.
As I am new to the Jersey area, I wonder whether the high property tax is the major reason that home-sellers feel entitled for a certain percentage of appreciation?
Any thought, fellow bloggers
What happens to all the money that law enforcement makes?
I was in the court house the other day to dispute/pay a traffic ticket – and the place was better than a 5-star hotel. The cash machine was just ringing and ringing the whole day.
I would think the monies the cops bring in probably pays for their salaries and some.
I am really curious where all this $ goes.
NNJJeFF Says:
February 13th, 2007 at 11:21 am
As I am new to the Jersey area, I wonder whether the high property tax is the major reason that home-sellers feel entitled for a certain percentage of appreciation?
Any thought, fellow bloggers
Not necessarily. However high RE tax is the norm among NYC suburbs. if you choose live in a NNJ, high RE tax is expected. They feel entitled because NNJ is in NYC metro and there are a lot of high paying professionals or independent people here.
If you don’t have one of those high paying professional jobs in this area, you are pretty much screwed. The only alternate is move far from NYC metro area, PA, West NJ, South NJ or the boroughs.
The demographic is changing in NNJ. NNJ is turning more like Westchester and Long Island.
CC
Everybody’s seeming destination of choice (North Carolina) is essentially the same as us.
The income tax structure is about the same. Sales tax is 7% in both places (NC just dropped it from 7.5%). NC also drops the tax to 3% when you buy a car. NJ charges the full 7%.
On the other hand, you do pay 2% sales tax on food in NC and you pay property taxes on your vehicle (@ the property tax rate 0f 1.06). If you eat $100 per week in food and your car is worth $20k, it will cost you $316 per year you weren’t paying in NJ.
The biggest difference in North Carolina are the property taxes. A 4 bedroom 1960’s cape cod in Clifton NJ will run $7,066 in taxes (MLS 2373384). A 4 bedroom 1960’s Cape in Raleigh (MLS 904469) costs about $115k. Assuming it is taxed at full fair market value, the property taxes would be $1,219 per year.
You also get a federal tax benefit of sorts in NC because the tax rates are not regionally adjusted. You need to make 50% more here to have the same standard of living as NC, but that means you are also taxed at a higher rate for the same level of purchasing power.
#44 Actually the demogrtaphic is changing in NNJ to in many cases a lower income population.
cc (#44)
With high-paying jobs and close to NYC, you could expect the taxes to be higher and the prices of homes to be higher. The point I am trying to make is that when homeowners try to sell their house, they think they are entitled to a certain percentage of appreciation BECAUSE of higher RE taxes they have to pay to “maintain” the value of the house.
I remember one particular ‘law enforcement’ a$$h@le, hunting in the Princeton-Trenton area…
Lipincott was his name.
His justice was swift: local rich boy always the victim, poor boy outta’ my parish – criminal.
Anybody here ever dealt w/ that dirtbag?
looking at taxes on a percentage basis is fine if the same base is being taxed
however, the cost of living in other areas of the country is so much lower that judging taxes in sheer percentage terms is very misleading.
If housing prices are roughly 1/3 in the south, the fact that property taxes are the same percent of value is irrelevant to the bottom line. Your taxes in the south will be 1/3.
the same is true for sales tax. goods and services are a lot cheaper in other areas of the country. Sales tax percentage might be the same in NC as NJ, but if your tax base if very diff’t
……so from the Goldman conference, the four execs say that the next 4-8 weeks are going to give the answers about what direction this goes
Re: bigAl says:(#38)….”school funding must be funded elsewhere…”
Where bigAl ??—Where can you get these ‘mystery’ funds in a state where the ordinary TAXPAYING citizens have more brains and common sense than their so-called ‘leadership’??
Maybe the so-called “poor” cities who get most of the cash to run their schools from ROBBING “us” the average property owners should pay THEIR FAIR SHARE ?!!!—–After all, who are ‘having’ all of these KIDS whom they can’t Really and Truly afford. (Except with food stamps, “free” food banks,”FREE” medical care “FREE” housing ETC ETC !!!)
—Maybe it is time to require a “user fee” for children who use the government schools –Maybe it is time to NOT HAVE “free” babysitting services (political correctly) called “pre-school”—-AND maybe it is TIME to realize that the money required for ALL OF THESE ILLS that most of us talk about will NEVER BE ‘FOUND’ unless we look at the obvious…!—POLITICALLY CORRECT OR NOT !
Bob Reiss
U.S. Realtors see gradual existing-home sales rise
http://yahoo.reuters.com/news/articlehybrid.aspx?storyID=urn:newsml:reuters.com:20070207:MTFH02873_2007-02-07_16-35-29_N07391254&type=comktNews&rpc=44
WASHINGTON, Feb 7 (Reuters) – U.S. existing-home sales have likely hit bottom and should gradually rise this year, but sales should still fall short of last year’s mark, a real estate industry group said on Wednesday.
The National Association of Realtors said it expects sales of previously owned homes in 2007 to reach 6.44 million units, down slightly from last year’s 6.48 million units. It forecast sales of 6.64 million in 2008.
“After reaching what appears to be the bottom in the fourth quarter of 2006, we expect existing home sales to gradually rise all this year and well into 2008,” NAR chief economist David Lereah said in a statement.
While NAR said sales of existing homes looked set to rise, it looked for further weakness in new-home sales. It said sales of new homes would come in at 961,000 units this year and 971,000 in 2008, both below the 1.06 million sold last year.
“In this queasy market, sales are slumping. Sellers remember the boom and want more money than they can get, while buyers feel they have unlimited time to make a decision. An agent’s best prospect for a sale is someone who must act now — a homeowner told by a lender to pay up or get out.”
“When you throw out the words ‘foreclosure,’ ‘short sale,’ ‘repo,’ the buyer thinks it’s a deal,” said president Bosch. “It’s still very early, but I’m convinced that’s where the market is going.”
“To make a living, you had to push a product you didn’t believe in,” said Aimee Quigley, a Home Center mortgage broker. “It was like being a defense attorney where you know your client did it, but you have to say he didn’t.”
“Nine out of ten times when these loans closed, we would sit there and say, ‘How long can they hold it together?’ ”
“To get top dollar in today’s market, you have to have the cheapest house for sale in the neighborhood,” the agent says. “The way prices are falling, in three weeks it will be the most expensive.”
http://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-foreclose13feb13,0,791237,full.story?coll=la-home-headlines
#52 You goota love the NAR, you just do.
“o from the Goldman conference, the four execs say that the next 4-8 weeks are going to give the answers about what direction this goes”
I.e., the “Spring Market” will indicate the market trend for 2007. How much do they pay these Goldman guys?
#47 Once and for all NJ people need to get away from this close to NYC nonsense, the over whelming majortiy of people who live in NJ work in NJ,a nd the over whelming majority of people who work in NYC, live in NYC.
“Once and for all NJ people need to get away from this close to NYC nonsense, the over whelming majortiy of people who live in NJ work in NJ,a nd the over whelming majority of people who work in NYC, live in NYC.”
Well, is that true? Maybe for NJ, but doesn’t NYC’s population increase by a million people a day? There are many people who work in NYC who don’t live there. I think too many around here act like NYC has no effect on NJ, but realy, there is an effect on the suburbs of ANY city, be it NYC, Chicago, etc. Cities have a lot more jobs than the suburbs, and certainly more high-paying jobs. Northern NJ’s proximity to NYC is relevant, for sure. It’s hardly the only factor, but it’s relevant.
bergenbubbleburst Says:
February 13th, 2007 at 12:42 pm
#47 Once and for all NJ people need to get away from this close to NYC nonsense, the over whelming majortiy of people who live in NJ work in NJ,a nd the over whelming majority of people who work in NYC, live in NYC.
True for NJ, however it is not true for NNJ. NNJ is part of NYC suburb, whether you like it or not. And NNJ’s RE, ecomony, employment, demographic……will drived by NYC.
CC
Define Northern NJ?? where does it end – some people seems to think that NNJ end in Trenton!!!
Al Says:
February 13th, 2007 at 1:00 pm
Define Northern NJ??
IMO, Northern NJ is the area North of 78 and East of 287.
CC
Even in NNJ, the over whelming majority of people who live there, work there, this close to NYC nonsense is over blown by some realtors and others. It is just another myth.
bergenbubbleburst Says:
February 13th, 2007 at 1:07 pm
Even in NNJ, the over whelming majority of people who live there, work there, this close to NYC nonsense is over blown by some realtors and others. It is just another myth.
I agree it’s over blown, but I don’t believe it’s a myth. I live in Passaic County, grew up in Bergen, and the majority of my friends and family who live in NNJ work in NYC. I know that isn’t official data, but it has to be somewhat representitive of the NNJ population. IMHO.
#57 NJ Gal It is releveant, but the reality is that it is only a small influence.
The over whelming majority of employees who work in NYC, live there.
its the same thing with Wall Street, less than 2% of the employees in NYC are involved in Wall St period, and many of the super stars live in the city, with of course their house int eh Hamptons or the Cape.
I truly believe that there is far too much emphasis put on this close to NYC myth, its like that is all we have, and maybe in some respects that it is true, because the state of NJ is not creating good paying jobs for its residents, that has been reported in study after study, again and again.
In addition to NNJ being close to NYC, so is Wectchester, Rockland, Nassau, Suffolk, and yes people even commute from Dutchess and Putnam.
NJ was a much more compelling place to reloccate from NYC say 15 or 20 years ago. Property taxes were cheaper than the NY suburbs, utilities were cheaper, car insurance, the sales tax etc etc.
NJ was a AAA rated state, and was in much better shape than NY and NYC.
Now in my opinion its reversed, NJ is in rapid decline, as many of its inner towns are declining, and are now facing problems that cities faced 20 years ago.
Our property taxes are the highest in the country, the state in bankrupt, the good job base is disappearing, the under class is rapidly expanding, the inner cities are beleeding the state dry the politicans refuse to do any thing, the unions cry no surrender, and there is absolutely nothing on the horizon of any positive note for the state of NJ.
Just wait until the country goes into a recession, it will be a depression for NJ>
Well Bergen, in the Long Island town I grew up in, most people’s parents worked in NYC. The same can be said for Southern Westchester, and parts of Northern, and CT too. That’s why they are called commuter towns. I understand that many people who live in NJ work here, as well as in those areas. But the influence is just not as small as you’d like it to be, particularly because the jobs people have in NYC pay a lot more than they do in NNJ. All of my friends who work in NYC, for example, are looking to move suburban in the next few years, and some already do.
Believe me, I understand that it’s frustrating to hear realtors act like prices will never go down because we’re near NYC, and like you I know that’s not true. But because they use the relationship for their own purposes doesn’t mean it doesn’t exist.
Disclaimer: the following is not serious
New initiation ritual for LOD…..
You must use all available wealth, borrow to maximium capacity, and place in this instrument.
http://www.proshares.com/funds/srs/5288301.html
UnRealtor Says:
February 13th, 2007 at 12:40 pm
“o from the Goldman conference, the four execs say that the next 4-8 weeks are going to give the answers about what direction this goes”
I.e., the “Spring Market” will indicate the market trend for 2007. How much do they pay these Goldman guys?
To clarify: execs from Hovnanian, Beazer, Toll & Pulte
#64 I agree NJ Gal, but I think you might be missing the point. Your LI NY town is a commuter town and so is Westchester BY and for that matter southern CT.
But it would stand to reason that NY towns would be commuter towns for NYC,as far as all of north Jersey, much less so, and as the reasons become less and less compelling to move NJ, former NY’ers who would have considered NJ, will in my opinion elect to stay in NYC, or in NY commuter towns rather than move to NJ.
The economic rationale for moving to NJ is not near as compelling as it once was.
BAH HAH HAH
TeeeHee
Not only would a true initiate in the LOD go ultrashort RE, but a serious candidate would purchase a ticket for this adventure, and proceed to push for additional capital investment from the speakers. That and 24 cents will get you a tax write-off and a postcard stamp.
http://www.wealthcruise.com/
I’ve read commuting statistics that say about 10% of North Jersey workers work in NYC. However, only about 4.7% of NYC jobs are in securities (and many of those are back office or administrative). Of the 10% working in NYC, many have regular jobs and are not making big Wall Street Salaries.
While Wall Street is often cited as a reason for high RE prices in NNJ, however there are fewer Wall Street jobs today compared with 2000, yet home prices doubled since 2000. If housing prices in NNJ were linked to Wall Street, then property prices should have fallen after the dot.com meltdown with many brokers losing their jobs. Instead, prices doubled, seeming to indicate a lack of correlation between the two.
“New initiation ritual for LOD…..”
Chi,
Finally a vaild reason for a hel.
Yes but out Property taxes are cheaper than Nassau Suffolk or Westchester
Here is the deal I sat and did the numbers did my taxes for 2006 and should have had a drink, but I did not.
I’m graduating with an RN degree in a couple months. RN pays pretty well, even factoring in big savings, not spending too much, and living frugally a house is perma out of reach in an area wit access to NYC
That makes me depressed, sometimes makes me angry, before the bubble 300K was doable, a stretch but doable. 500K with about 3000-4000K a month carrying charges not so doable while not working 2 jobs and stealing.
And going to grad school to get the APN only makes me have more debt to pay off pushing the house back even further!
And I wonder how the hell do these people do this?
Should I steal bikes or cars, maybe doing illegal activites to raise cash?
Good one, ChiFi (#27), re: Potvin…not sure how many that one went over.
“And I wonder how the hell do these people do this?”
1. some rode the bubble up (and some tapped their parents who rode the bubble up)
2. some actually make a lot of money
3. some borrow more than they can reasonably afford (speculators)
problem is that it’s difficult to tell how much of each group there is.
people here tend to think #3 is the overwhelming share, but others will tell you that there are more 1s and 2s than you think
I think for my age group its alot of 1 with parental help
and some of that makes me a
JEALOUSBIITERNOTHAVEAHOUSEYETIFEVER
I do think though that in that case they are not moving and they are not selling so the price stays up up
On discussion of NJ Residents working in NYC.
Only 8.5% of NYC workers live in NJ. This number translates to 309,862.
http://www.nycedc.com/NR/rdonlyres/EB0A00B7-3089-4E90-8773-5AA35651B8A5/0/EconomicSnapshotJanuary2007.pdf
Total employment in NJ is 4,321,100.
http://stats.bls.gov/eag/eag.nj.htm
That makes it only 6.6% ( 309,862 / 309,862 + 4,321,100) of people who live in NJ but work in NYC.
On discussion of NJ Residents working in NYC.
Only 8.5% of NYC workers live in NJ. This number translates to 309,862.
http://www.nycedc.com/NR/rdonlyres/EB0A00B7-3089-4E90-8773-5AA35651B8A5/0/EconomicSnapshotJanuary2007.pdf
According to BLS Total employment in NJ is 4,321,100.
That makes it only 6.6% ( 309,862 / 309,862 + 4,321,100) of people who live in NJ but work in NYC.
“Good one, ChiFi (#27), re: Potvin…not sure how many that one went over.”
Upstairs in the blue seats.
Another rumor goes down
>>
BHP not eyeing Alcoa right now, sources say
Sources deny report that aluminum producer is a current target;
http://money.cnn.com/2007/02/13/news/international/bc.bhp.rio.alcoa.reut/index.htm?postversion=2007021314
R Patrick,
Have you ever considered moving? RN’s are in demand across the country. You are actually in a much better position to relocate than many people with jobs where the opportunities simply don’t exist outside of this area.
For a modest paycut, you could move somewhere where your cost of living would be cut in half. Especially since you don’t yet own a house.
BC Bob Says:
February 13th, 2007 at 3:01 pm
“Good one, ChiFi (#27), re: Potvin…not sure how many that one went over.”
Beat your wife Potvin, BEAT YOUR WIFE!
#71 My friends taxes in Yorktown and Chappaqua are compareable to Bergen County.
So IMHo, if you are originally from the Westchester area, and NJ property taxes are roughly the same, less incentive to move to NJ.
ChiFi(65)-
A true LOD’er sees a 1-year CD or some POS “balanced” fund as a massive risk.
Doubling-down short on a RE basket? It may fit the LOD temperament, but not the vanilla risk tolerance.
The LOD’er- in true v@yeur fashion- would cheer on your winnings on that short play, while loudly pointing out that it’s evidence of the utter collapse of Western civilization (all the while whining about sellers who won’t entertain their “fair and generous” $12 offers for 4BR colonials in top towns).
Re Post #49
…the cost of living in other areas of the country is so much lower that judging taxes in sheer percentage terms is very misleading.
If housing prices are roughly 1/3 in the south, the fact that property taxes are the same percent of value is irrelevant to the bottom line. Your taxes in the south will be 1/3.
the same is true for sales tax. goods and services are a lot cheaper in other areas of the country. Sales tax percentage might be the same in NC as NJ,…
Skeptic, the cost of living may be lower, but so are salaries, household income in NC is nowhere near household income in NJ, that’s a big part of the reason companies relocate there.
A few months ago I recall a story in which a company was moving south because an accountant here cost $80K, but down there it was $50K. Their cost is your salary.
Also, almost all of the cost difference is related to housing. Things might be a bit cheaper down there, but not as much as most people think.
A cheeseburger costs about the same, whether its from a McDonalds in NJ or NC, and the same can be said for a new Toyota.
Sorry for the noob question, but what does LOD stand for?
Also, is there a good way to find out local taxes besides searching realtor/foxtons/fsbo listings?
Just to add my 2 cents to the whole live in NJ/work in NYC discussion. I work in NYC (advertising) and can probably count 5-8 out of about 150 people that I know who live in NJ. That being said, Advertising is a younger industry than usual.
LOD= League of Dorks.
Lincoln78 – Welcome to Dork Realty.
LOD = League of Dorks
Grim is the Master Dork.
We meet at a cigar bar regularly and run around a fire naked.
ok, i kid the last bit
Lindsey,
The geographic arbitrage game can only be played by those leaving this area with significant downpayment amassed through either prodigious savings or through the proceeds of a home sale. That princely sum would allow the arbitrageur to significantly buy-down their monthly housing cost through a large down payment.
Those leaving this area with nothing but debt and pocket lint will likely find other areas just as unaffordable.
jb
Also, Lincoln78 – clot is fast with his fingers. Whatever you do, do not draw any blanket statements about Realtors – he bites.
You can draw blanket statements on –
Politicians,
entire state of NJ,
all Indians,
chinese,
koreans,
mid-west,
south,
but never ever realtors.
get it ;-)
sad state of affairs when major banks
a pushing credit cards on illegals.
how low can we go? these are lawbreakers.
anything for a buck.
Trenton take note.
All good to know.
I will prevent my fingers & toes from disparaging realtors at risk of having clotpol bite them off ;-)
That being said, I do enjoy his insights.
the cost of living may be lower, but so are salaries
It really depends on your job. Much of the reason NJ has a very high median salary is driven by the fact that NJ is highly unionized. We are only one of 4 states with more than 20% of our workforce represented by a union.
If I you are a teacher, police officer, toll collector or electrician in the union, it probably doesn’t make a whole lot of sense to relocate. Assuming you could get the same job title somewhere else, the pay cut would probably cancel out any cost of living savings.
It also depends on your life situation. My parents, for example, own their home outright. They could save on property taxes by moving, but with a relocation pay cut, it’s probably not worth the hassle of starting over at a new job at this point in life. The case for relocation becomes more compelling when they retire. Then it makes more sense to cash in the house and minimize the property taxes.
For others, thought, it does make a lot of sense. Especially if you don’t own a home, are white collar middle class, and have a job where the pay cut would be less dramatic. In my field, I would be looking at a 10% pay cut (salaries.com). In exchange, my property taxes would be cut in half and I could buy a home for 50% less that’s nicer than what I would stretch to pay for up here. It’s even a better deal for savers, because I would be able to make a very substantial down payment.
driving around for cheap gas is driving around for cheap gas, regardless of state.
#6 JB:
Ask him to try http://www.prosper.com
Not sure if he can get a lower rate, but maybe worth a try.
#11 “Corzine sets sights on global warming”
What a dork? I think new jersians have some more pressing problems right now, like being able to afford this state’s budget.
I’m curious – is this whole “lets get out of NJ” phenomenon new or has it always (5, 3 yrs) been the case?
Right now, I think it’s just some bold folks – like the ~70,000 people last year who are migrating out.
If this trend becomes more popular – like say mass media talking about it – it’ll be more like an exodus! Has any other state region in the US faced such an out-migration?
Just thinking loud.
#23 EdwardT Says:
Exactly my point. Vote crooks like Mendez into power and then whine about property taxes. Good for union county and the non-profit’s that rent his building but BAD for the state’s tax payers !!
Hey let’s vote against bush and pay for it though our property taxes. Really disappointing and I am not even a fan of Bush !
Sign up for NJ RE Report Network first meeting February 16th 6:30 PM at,
http://www.evite.com/app/publicUrl/skgala@yahoo.com/njrereport
For the commercial property gurus:
Anybody know what the tax rate is on a long term (over 30 years) holding of a commercial property? I’m trying to help my mother w/ an analysis of whether to sell her property.
Thanks.
Please be aware that the location of the event has changed
jb
I’m curious – is this whole “lets get out of NJ” phenomenon new or has it always (5, 3 yrs) been the case?
New Jersey has had negative out migration for some time. That’s to be expected for a highly populated area like NJ and normally not much of a concern. Immigrant populations come here first and spread out to the rest of the country as they become more established.
Since 2000 though, the pace has really picked up. About 25,000 people left in 2000 and that number has increased to almost 75,000 last year. If the trend continues, NJ is likely to see its population actually fall. Right now, immigrants and babies are still keeping population growth slightly positive.
“Whatever you do, do not draw any blanket statements about Realtors – he bites.” [#88]
Clot,
Couldn’t resist;
“Conscience is the dog that can’t bite, but never stops barking.”
Pat post 26-
Most people’s solution to debt is to cut costs and transfer to lower rate cards. Not enough people consider changing jobs or working a second job to get extra money.
#83
“Skeptic, the cost of living may be lower, but so are salaries,”
really depends on industry. as rentinginnj mentioned, salaries in the NE are greatly skewed by the bloated gov’t beaurocracy. for private sector jobs, there is less difference
“Also, almost all of the cost difference is related to housing.”
cost of RE filters into the cost just about everything. a business that has to pay higher rent passes this cost onto its customers.
there is also a more business friendly political regime in much of the south and west. the cost of regulatory compliance is less, and businesses can pass these savings onto their customers as well.
honestly, anytime I travel to anyplace besides the NE and Cali I am amazed at how cheap things are
post 100:
you mean illegal babies.
“you mean illegal babies.”
pesche,
Based on current lending standards, these babies are pre-approved for a mortgage.
I almost bought a townshouse for around 450k in Teaneck overlooking a public golf course 3 plus years ago. I was put off by the 12k plus taxes, in a town that has sub-par schools and never made an offer.
SG Says:
February 13th, 2007 at 2:57 pm
On discussion of NJ Residents working in NYC.
Only 8.5% of NYC workers live in NJ. This number translates to 309,862.
http://www.nycedc.com/NR/rdonlyres/EB0A00B7-3089-4E90-8773-5AA35651B8A5/0/EconomicSnapshotJanuary2007.pdf
According to BLS Total employment in NJ is 4,321,100.
That makes it only 6.6% ( 309,862 / 309,862 + 4,321,100) of people who live in NJ but work in NYC.
Yes and if you want to figure out what percentage of the north jersey population is working in NYC it would be 21.5%
You have to do 4,321,100 / 3 because jersey is north, central, and south. And the majority of them are living in North jersey.
DING!
#107 And all of those 21, 000 making enough money to pay for 500k crap capes with 10k property taxes.
What are we trying to analyze here?
jb
The population of Jersey residents that work in NYC could be significantly higher, if only the trains ran more often and or the buses went faster. The Kid says commuting options into NYC from Jersey are limited when compared to that of LI, West Chester, and the other boros.
If they ever decide to open up another commuter tunnel to allow more train access do you think the population of New Jersey would at all be effected?
The Kid thinks so.
Well good point : New Home Owner
To find proper percentage from NNJ, here is another stab at this calculation.
The population of NJ is 8,414,350. Out of which 5,782,242 live in counties which are considered commutable to NYC. These were Bergen, Essex, Middlesex, Monmouth,
Hudson, Union, Passaic, Somerset, Mercer and Morris.
Hence percent of population in these counties = 68.7%. Applying that factor to total NJ employment, total employment = 4630962 * 0.68 = 3149054
Hence the percent of NNJ & CNJ (Commutable to NYC) that work in NYC is = 9.8%
Population stats available from,
http://factfinder.census.gov/servlet/GCTTable?_bm=y&-geo_id=04000US34&-_box_head_nbr=GCT-PH1&-ds_name=DEC_2000_SF1_U&-format=ST-2
I forgot to mention how 9.8% came about,
NJ Residents working in NYC => 309,862
Total NJ Residents in NNJ & CNJ who are employed => 3149054 + 309,862 = => 3458916
Hence Percent = 309,862 / 3458916 => 8.9%
In fact I got almost 1 percent lower. I had forgotten to add 309,862 in total employment number before.
We’re talking Manhattan proper here, are we not? Why are we including the other boroughs?
jb
What are we trying to analyze here?
JB: The analysis is on the point that NJ prices are higher because many folks work in NYC and make big money. The anecdotal point Bergen earlier was most people who live in NJ also work in NJ. My calculation shows at present about 9% of NNJ/CNJ population works in NYC.
The question is, Can 9% population, effect NNJ/CNJ real estate market significantly? I personally don’t think that impact will be significant. There will be some impact on towns that are directly on train line, but not in all towns. Even this impact goes down as you go further out in NJ.
JB: The following article, gives number of all NJ residents who work in all 5 borough on NYC. I took combined number. Granted Manhatten has the largest share (almost 259K), while others are very small few thousands.
http://www.nycedc.com/NR/rdonlyres/EB0A00B7-3089-4E90-8773-5AA35651B8A5/0/EconomicSnapshotJanuary2007.pdf
I’ll try and post again…Short version, we deserve the high property taxes because we don’t want to change the system. Unless we as voters get serious and vote out the old guard for new fresh faces nothing will change.
#114 SG: that is precisely what i have been trying to say.
In addition the premier (whatever that means today) NJ towns will also fall in rpice, meaning simply, that people who may have settled for one town with lesser schools, but more affordable and ona train line, may now be able to buy in “better” towns.
One final note many of the jobs that NJ people work at in NYC are back office, and or middle managemnt positions, nothing of course wrong with that, but again not the big big, bucksd jobs that one might think.
Also these positions are extremely vulnerable when Wall St takes dump. The street over hires, and over fires. They have done it time and time again.
And when things get bad again on the street (and they will) the first positions to go are the back office/middle manager non revenue producing positions.
This whole real estate fiasco has IMHO totally distorted reality fro many people, and has caused many people to have a total dis regard and respect for money.
I am still amazed at JB’s number from yesterday, indicating that teh average car loan is over 60 months, with an average balance of around 25K.
Not everybody can be truly affluent, not every body is, but the massive amounts of cheap credit and massive inflated values of peoples in many cases modest homes, has convinced so many, that they are indeed wealthy, when in fact it is just debt.
this cannot and will not go on, and its not just Gen X, and Gen Y are what ever they are called today who are into instant gratification,and keeping up with the Jones’s
People in my over 40, but at the tail end of the Baby boomers are just as guilty, if not more so, and actually probably more so.
What is truly amazing is that I know many who lived through the last real estate down turn, who have spent money they do not have over the last few years, all predicated on housing values.
These are the clowns who should have knwo better.
#114 SG: that is precisely what i have been trying to say.
In addition the premier (whatever that means today) NJ towns will also fall in rpice, meaning simply, that people who may have settled for one town with lesser schools, but more affordable and ona train line, may now be able to buy in “better” towns.
One final note many of the jobs that NJ people work at in NYC are back office, and or middle managemnt positions, nothing of course wrong with that, but again not the big big, bucksd jobs that one might think.
Also these positions are extremely vulnerable when Wall St takes dump. The street over hires, and over fires. They have done it time and time again.
And when things get bad again on the street (and they will) the first positions to go are the back office/middle manager non revenue producing positions.
This whole real estate fiasco has IMHO totally distorted reality fro many people, and has caused many people to have a total dis regard and respect for money.
I am still amazed at JB’s number from yesterday, indicating that teh average car loan is over 60 months, with an average balance of around 25K.
Not everybody can be truly affluent, not every body is, but the massive amounts of cheap credit and massive inflated values of peoples in many cases modest homes, has convinced so many, that they are indeed wealthy, when in fact it is just debt.
this cannot and will not go on, and its not just Gen X, and Gen Y are what ever they are called today who are into instant gratification,and keeping up with the Jones’s
People in my over 40, but at the tail end of the Baby boomers are just as guilty, if not more so, and actually probably more so.
What is truly amazing is that I know many who lived through the last real estate down turn, who have spent money they do not have over the last few years, all predicated on housing values.
These are the clowns who should have knwo better.
#114 SG: that is precisely what i have been trying to say.
In addition the premier (whatever that means today) NJ towns will also fall in rpice, meaning simply, that people who may have settled for one town with lesser schools, but more affordable and ona train line, may now be able to buy in “better” towns.
One final note many of the jobs that NJ people work at in NYC are back office, and or middle managemnt positions, nothing of course wrong with that, but again not the big big, bucksd jobs that one might think.
Also these positions are extremely vulnerable when Wall St takes dump. The street over hires, and over fires. They have done it time and time again.
And when things get bad again on the street (and they will) the first positions to go are the back office/middle manager non revenue producing positions.
This whole real estate fiasco has IMHO totally distorted reality fro many people, and has caused many people to have a total dis regard and respect for money.
I am still amazed at JB’s number from yesterday, indicating that teh average car loan is over 60 months, with an average balance of around 25K.
Not everybody can be truly affluent, not every body is, but the massive amounts of cheap credit and massive inflated values of peoples in many cases modest homes, has convinced so many, that they are indeed wealthy, when in fact it is just debt.
this cannot and will not go on, and its not just Gen X, and Gen Y are what ever they are called today who are into instant gratification,and keeping up with the Jones’s
People in my over 40, but at the tail end of the Baby boomers are just as guilty, if not more so, and actually probably more so.
What is truly amazing is that I know many who lived through the last real estate down turn, who have spent money they do not have over the last few years, all predicated on housing values.
These are the clowns who should have knwo better.
Sorry for the triple post, not sure how I did that.
Double-moderated! Don’t know what I’m saying wrong…
“8) You can do rent vs. own arbitrage scenarios in your head.”
Clot,
How about doing while asleep, does this qualify???
BC (125)-
You, sir, are a winner!
Looks like Ayman Al-Zawahri has his own little “questionnaire” for Dubya. Evidently the good shaikh has developed his abilities as a 12-step counselor:
http://apnews.excite.com/article/20070213/D8N94PG00.html
The horsemen are saddling up.
Good thing for those high paying NYC jobs, otherwise we’d be in trouble for sure.. From Reliable Plant Magazine:
1,444 mass layoffs created 256K job separations in 4Q
In the fourth quarter of 2006, there were 1,444 mass layoff events that resulted in the separation of 255,886 workers from their jobs for at least 31 days, according to preliminary figures released February 13 by the U.S. Department of Labor’s Bureau of Labor Statistics. Both the total number of layoff events and the number of separations were higher than during the October-December 2005 time period. The over-the-year increases in layoffs were most notable in transportation equipment manufacturing, insurance carriers and related activities, and food and beverage stores.
…
Fifty-six percent of layoff events and 49 percent of separations occurred in metropolitan areas in 2006, compared to 60 percent of events and 53 percent of separations in 2005. Among the 367 metropolitan areas, Los Angeles-Long Beach-Santa Ana, Calif., reported the highest number of separations, 39,547. The next highest numbers of separations were in Chicago-Naperville-Joliet, Ill.-Ind.-Wis., with 35,757, and New York-Northern New Jersey-Long Island, N.Y.-N.J.-Pa., with 32,125…
Grim (128)-
When I first glanced your reference to “Reliable Plant”, I thought you were reading High Times.
Clotpoll Says:
February 13th, 2007 at 6:48 pm
Double-moderated! Don’t know what I’m saying wrong…
clot: “tr0pical f!sh” is automatic
I hear the Californians are turning extra bedrooms into hydroponic farms to help pay the mortgage.
http://www.wbir.com/news/national/story.aspx?storyid=42022&provider=gnews
jb
Clot #123, Don’t you think it’s very self serving to think that anyone who’s Bearish on RE (in NJ) is a. um.. dork?!
You could be bearish on RE but aggressive in other investments.. and life in general – which I bet most folks here are.
Just ‘cuz you are bearish on RE also doesn’t mean you don’t make good money. Heck, if you don’t own a house in this market, you automagically are making more dollars.
Your public service is so much like Fox news.
Clot:
11. You lecture anyone who will listen (your mom, your coworkers, the lady behind the Lancôme counter at Macy’s, your neighbor’s dog) on the intricacies of the housing market.
12. You contemplate your ING account 3 to 112 times a week. You are pleased with yourself that your investment should increase 4.35% this year; a house more likely than not, would lose 3% in value. This makes you feel warm and fuzzy inside.
13. You are disappointed, depressed, worried, bitter, cranky yet weirdly optimistic about your future housing opportunities.
14. You sympathize with your employer with regard to the burden of increasing overhead (taxes, rents, high insurance premiums) and with the impact the metro mass exodus is having on their business. However, you find yourself increasingly p-od/in disbelief/feeling like you are getting scrwed when you look at your paycheck and calculate in your head what 2.5X your salary will get you for a house if you were to buy now, or even with a 10% discount come fall.
15. You can’t believe that your thoughts are not as main stream as one might think with the plethora of information available. You fantasize if you could somehow with your “special” insights, give your money to the street and short the RE market you would make a killing. You could then buy that starter cape with no worries about the ridiculous taxes and wouldn’t you be a genius? But then again, monkeys would fly out of your butt before putting that money into that over-priced POS cape even if you have to rent until you’re your Nana’s age.
(sigh)
Ok, ok… these LOD lists are starting to scare me – too close to home! p.s. electric orange is now has some juicier rates for larger balances, as 99.99% of this blog already knows I’m sure.
Off topic, apologies- has anyone migrated out of their ING to, say, something really out there on a limb, a la Vanguard NJ Tax Free fund? Just curious… I have some $$ to deploy and can’t help but feel a bit uneasy about buying equities at these levels, given my time horizion (2-3yrs probably).
thx
Steve
I have always suspected, and the recent posts concerning investing strategies seem to confirm, that some men’s investing strategy is essentially driven by testosterone.
Anyone who uses emotion-laden terms to describe theirs or others’ portfolios ought to be held suspect in any suggestions they make.
You know you’re a realtor™ if:
1) Now is a good time to buy!
2) Now is a good time to sell!
3) David Lereah makes sense.
4) Real estate only goes up!
5) Suzanne researched this!
6) Prices will only go up in the spring!
7) Rising spring inventory means more options, time to buy before it’s too late!
8) Sellers can list at “insulting” ask prices, but buyers can’t put in “insulting” offers.
9) Days on market doesn’t matter.
10) Last year the neighbor sold for $100K more, make an offer before it’s too late!
11) And lastly, but not leastly, “There’s another offer coming in tonight!”
Linky in #5 got auto-removed, here it is again:
5) Suzanne researched this!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ubsd-tWYmZw
One more LOD awareness item:
16) Your spouse or significant other has tried performing an intervention. For example, (s)he swipes a vapid, steamy romance novel from the Free Bin at the Public Library, hides your laptop, and leaves the book next to the power cord.
The filthy crooks are taking it on the chin Left, Right and Center, no spring rebound for you bagholders:
“The meltdown in the subprime industry has cost Countrywide Financial Corp., the biggest U.S. mortgage lender, 7 percent of its market value in the past week. “
KK (133)-
Good stuff! LOL…
#136 To which I would add
12. Its close to NYC
13. Convenient to all (busy street)
14. Needs some TLC (dump)
15. Warm and Cozy (tiny)
16. Charm abounds (combination of 14 & 15)