From Bloomberg:
Bernanke Urges Action to Slow Jump in U.S. Home Foreclosures
Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke, seeking to end the worst housing slump in a quarter century, urged the government and mortgage lenders to intensify their efforts to avoid home foreclosures.
Bernanke, in a speech in New York yesterday, also reiterated his call for lenders to forgive portions of mortgages for some struggling homeowners. He said proposals should be “tightly targeted” at borrowers at greatest risk of losing their properties, and avoid providing an incentive for defaults.
The Fed chief also backed the idea of having the Federal Housing Administration refinance troubled mortgages, a concept included in Democratic legislation in Congress, without explicitly endorsing the bill. His remarks indicate a gap with the Bush administration, which has preferred to rely on industry-led efforts.
“Realistic public- and private-sector policies must take into account the fact that traditional foreclosure-avoidance strategies may not always work well in the current environment,” Bernanke said in remarks to a Columbia Business School dinner.
…
As the housing recession deepened, officials in Washington have offered a number of different proposals. Foreclosure filings rose 57 percent in March from a year earlier, according to Irvine, California-based RealtyTrac Inc.“Conditions in mortgage markets remain quite difficult, and mortgage delinquencies have climbed steeply,” Bernanke said.
…
Bernanke did note that accelerating foreclosures may push home prices down further, hurting the broader economy and threatening the financial system. He anticipated the foreclosure rate will increase this year after such proceedings began on 1.5 million properties last year.A quarterly Fed survey yesterday showed the share of banks making it tougher for companies and consumers to borrow approached a record last month in the aftermath of the subprime mortgage collapse. The Senior Loan Officers’ Survey found a net 70 percent of banks increased their loan rates over their cost of funds.
…
Bernanke warned that “to be effective, such programs must be tightly targeted to borrowers at the highest risk of foreclosure.” Qualification guidelines could be set, such as identifying an amount of debt compared with income, or the extent to which the home value is below the mortgage amount, he indicated.“Finding the right balance — particularly the need to avoid programs that give borrowers who can make their payments an incentive to default — is difficult,” the Fed chairman said.
From the Courier Post:
Water bill may rise 23 percent in 47 towns
With approximately 600 heads a week to wash at his Haddonfield beauty salon, Tony Scoleri is dreading the possibility of a 23 percent hike in water rates.
“First fuel, then food, now this. Things are spiraling out of control. How much profit do these monopolies have to make? If I passed a 23 percent increase onto my clients, I’d be out of business,” said Scoleri, a 35-year veteran of the business.
New Jersey American Water, a subsidiary of American Water, is petitioning the New Jersey Board of Public Utilities for a 23 percent rate increase to cover more than $350 million it has spent upgrading “facilities, infrastructure and water sources” since last year when it was granted a 12.5 percent increase.
“Even with the proposed increase, our customers will pay less than one penny per gallon for water service,” said John Bigelow, president of the water company.
Headquartered in Cherry Hill, New Jersey American Water is the largest, investor-owned water utility in the state with 2.6 million customers. It provides water in whole or part to 47 communities in Burlington, Camden and Gloucester counties.
If the increase is granted, the bill for the average residential customer using 21,000 gallons of water per quarter would rise from $106 to $146 in some areas, according to the company.
That increase pales by comparison to another pending by United Water Toms River, the state’s second largest provider. It is asking for a 93 percent hike, which would push a typical customer’s annual bill from $266 to $512 per year.
From MarketWatch:
UBS to cut 5,500 jobs, sell assets to BlackRock fund
Troubled Swiss banking group UBS said Tuesday that it plans to cut 5,500 jobs and sell a $15 billion chunk of its risky mortgage assets to BlackRock Inc. as it reported a first-quarter loss broadly in line with an earlier warning.
From the WSJ:
Swiss Reinsurance Net Profit Halves
On Further Subprime Write-Downs
By GORAN MIJUK
May 6, 2008 5:06 a.m.
ZURICH — Swiss Reinsurance Co. Tuesday reported a sharp drop in first-quarter net profit as the company was hurt by another hefty write-down on its subprime-linked investments and warned of more such losses for the second quarter.
The company said net profit for the three months to the end of March dropped 53% to 624 million Swiss francs ($594 million), from 1.33 billion francs a year earlier, missing forecasts of about 890 million francs.
…
The company said the drop in net profit was mainly due to additional mark-to-market losses of 819 million francs on structured credit default swaps, hedging instruments that were issued by Swiss Re and designed to protect investors from falling bond prices. As bonds fell during the U.S. subprime-mortgages crisis, Swiss Re had to partly cover the losses.
From CNBC:
Layoffs Loom at Morgan Stanley, JPMorgan, Lehman
Wall Street is being hit by another wave layoffs, with Morgan Stanley, Lehman Brothers and JPMorgan Chase all set to axe staff in the near future.
…
Chief executives of major wall street firms tell CNBC that the unofficial head-count reduction on Wall Street overall is 10 percent per firm as a result of losses and declining business stemming from the disappearance, at least for now, of the once-lucrative structured finance business.
From the NY Post:
FORECLOSURE FIX
NEW York’s foreclosure rate remains well below the national average. One in every 1,631 households here faced foreclosure in March, compared to one in 538 nationwide, reports RealtyTrac. But that good news may not last.
New York’s working- and middle-class real-estate markets only started seeing weakness during the second half of last year, city tax analysts say – more than a year later than much of the country. Citywide foreclosures were up 18 percent in March compared to a year ago, as some people who run into trouble paying their bills can’t refinance or sell as the market weakens.
And some New York neighborhoods are harder-hit. On Staten Island, foreclosures are up 103 percent over March 2007, driven by the poorer North Shore. Foreclosures in Queens are up 35 percent, driven by Jamaica and Hollis. And turmoil in Brooklyn neighborhoods such as East New York can’t be ignored.
From the Courier Post:
‘Extreme Makeover’ house on the market
You, too, can own the Camden County star of “Extreme Makeover: Home Edition” — for a cool $499,900.
And you don’t even have to go on TV.
The 3,000-square-foot, four-bedroom house at 3723 Federal St. has appeared for sale this week, according to real estate documents obtained by the Courier-Post.
Construction workers and thousands of volunteers built the house in just six days last summer, a massive effort recorded for the national ABC program “Extreme Makeover: Home Edition.”
The project lifted Victor Marrero and his five sons from poverty into a spacious new home, complete with high ceilings, a sprinkler system and central air conditioning. They moved in last August.
But for reasons that remained unclear late Monday, the Marreros apparently plan to move out. The property listing says the house is available within 30 to 90 days.
…
“It’s a very nice house,” he said. “But it’s hard for people in some parts of Cherry Hill to sell a house for $499,900.”
Comparable listings are hard to find in the township. The next-most-expensive property is a three-bedroom home on Browning Road listed at $324,900.
…
But approval for a mortgage isn’t a guarantee the loan will be granted.
“It’s highly unlikely a buyer would ever be able to get a mortgage for this house because it’s priced so much above market value,” Howard said.
From Bloomberg:
GMAC Buys Time for ResCap Unit as Threat of Bankruptcy Looms
GMAC LLC, the car and home lender struggling to avert bankruptcy for Residential Capital LLC, may keep the mortgage business afloat long enough to find a buyer or break it up.
ResCap, after recording $5.3 billion in losses over the past six quarters, said on May 2 that it is seeking a $3.5 billion loan from GMAC as part of a bigger financing agreement. Less than a month ago, GMAC provided a $750 million credit line.
“That doesn’t mean the business is necessarily coming back,” said Christopher Wolfe, an analyst at Fitch Ratings in New York, which downgraded GMAC and ResCap debt last week. “Rather than throw everything into a bankruptcy court and everyone scrambles for how to liquidate the assets, maybe you can sell certain assets or parts of the business.”
Unable to lend to subprime borrowers or bring in new business in Europe, ResCap reported an $859 million first-quarter loss last week, wiping out GMAC’s profit from its auto-finance business. GMAC is owned by General Motors Corp. and an investor group led by Cerberus Capital Management LP.
The subprime meltdown has forced more than 100 mortgage companies to suspend operations, close or sell themselves since the start of 2007. Lenders including New Century Financial Corp. and American Home Mortgage Investment Corp. have gone bankrupt, while Countrywide Financial Corp. agreed to be bought.
From MarketWatch:
Euro-zone producer prices climb 5.7% in March
Producer prices in the euro zone rose 0.7% in March compared with February, or 5.7% year-on-year. Excluding energy, annualized prices rose 3.7%.
From Bloomberg:
U.S. Home Slump Puts Owners `Underwater,’ Zillow Says
U.S. home values dropped 7.7 percent in the first quarter to the lowest in almost three years, according to estimates by Zillow.com, an online real estate data provider.
The decline is the biggest in 12 years of data compiled by Seattle-based Zillow.com, a Web site started in 2006 to provide owners, real estate agents and potential buyers with value assessments called “zestimates” for single-family homes, co- operative apartments and condominiums.
U.S. house prices dropped for the first time since the 1930s last year, discouraging buyers who fear being “underwater” on their mortgage, or owing more on their home than it’s worth. That’s already happened to almost 52 percent of homeowners who bought in 2006 when prices peaked, Zillow estimates. At the same time, record foreclosures are adding to a glut of unsold homes and driving prices down further.
“While the high rate of negative equity has little consequence to owners staying in their homes, it can be devastating to those who need to sell immediately or refinance,” Zillow Vice President of Data and Analytics Stan Humphries said in a statement released today. “The inability to secure refinancing is ultimately contributing to the growing rates of foreclosure in many parts of the country.”
About 30 percent of existing U.S. homes sold through 2009 will be foreclosures, according to an April 24 report by Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. economists Michelle Meyer and Ethan Harris.
Mike (from yesterday’s thread)-
Yes, the market will overshoot to the downside. Yes, BC and the train towns will end up taking a hit.
That’s part of the reason I’m not a fan of cheerleading (the bull or the bear kind). Every buyer has a different set of circumstances; it’s presumptuous to offer opinion when one has no knowledge of that person’s particular situation and needs.
Things are going to get bad enough without the assistance of cheerleaders for the Bear team. If this thing really veers off the tracks, the low prices many here hope for may be accompanied by a whole slew of broad economic consequences that make the most prudent and well-financed among us think twice before buying…at ANY price.
GSMLS Crossed the 36K mark this morning.
From MarketWatch:
D.R. Horton Q2 revenue $1.62 billion vs $2.62 billion
D.R. Horton Q2 loss $1.31 billion vs $51.7 million profit
D.R. Horton Q2 loss $4.14 per share vs 16 cent profit
From MarketWatch:
Fannie Mae sets plans to raise $6 bln in new capital
Fannie Mae Q1 net loss $2.2 bln
Fannie Mae Q1 loss $2.57 a share vs 85-cent profit
Fannie Mae to cut dividend in Q3 to 25 cents a share
Dick Armey on Squawk, blasting away at Bergabe, Fannie, gubmint…everybody and everything.
From the NY Times via CNBC:
Will Fannie and Freddie Need Saving Soon?
As home prices continue their free fall and banks shy away from lending, Washington officials have increasingly relied on two giant mortgage companies — Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac — to keep the housing market afloat.
But with mortgage defaults and foreclosures rising, Bush administration officials, regulators and lawmakers are nervously asking whether these two companies, would-be saviors of the housing market, will soon need saving themselves.
The companies, which say fears that they might falter are baseless, have recently received broad new powers and billions of dollars of investing authority from the federal government. And as Wall Street all but abandons the mortgage business, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac now overwhelmingly dominate it, handling more than 80 percent of all mortgages bought by investors in the first quarter of this year. That is more than double their market share in 2006.
But some financial experts worry that the companies are dangerously close to the edge, especially if home prices go through another steep decline. Their combined cushion of $83 billion — the capital that their regulator requires them to hold — underpins a colossal $5 trillion in debt and other financial commitments.
“think twice before buying…at ANY price.”
Clot [10],
I’m knocking on that door.
JB [15],
Our Northern Crock.
BC (17)-
Too bad there are no Fannie/Freddie branches for us to queue up and have a good, old-fashioned bank run.
grim (15)-
“The companies, which say fears that they might falter are baseless, have recently received broad new powers and billions of dollars of investing authority from the federal government.”
Sure. The heads of Fannie & Freddie already know how the endgame will play out. They are silently being prepped as bankruptcy/bailout vehicles. Can’t take your ’07 vintage slop to the window? Package it up, and sell it to Fannie/Freddie.
Of course, we know whose money goes to bail out these august institutions, both pillars of financial good sense and conservative underwriting.
[sarcasm off]
Just give everybody a free house already!
I can now turn off the TV for the rest of the day:
Santelli just called the Fed a charity organization.
“Will Fannie and Freddie Need Saving Soon?”
Who advised me to sell my Freddie and Fannie puts 2 weeks ago? You own me some money today.
With all the layoffs in the city, when is it going to affect NYC? So far I don’t see any impact on NY or NJ. RE prices have only moved a little if any, traffic is just as bad. Trains and buses are packed with people going to work just like before. Are the unemployed taking taking the trains, like in Japan?
“May 6 (Bloomberg) — Crude oil may rise to between $150 and $200 a barrel within two years as growth in supply fails to keep pace with increased demand from developing nations, Goldman Sachs Group Inc. analysts led by Arjun N. Murti said in a report.”
“The core of our super-spike view has been that a lack of adequate supply growth coupled with price-insulated non-OECD demand growth” is leading to higher prices, the analysts said. That could result in a “sharp correction in oil demand,” the Goldman analysts said.
“There’s a fundamental misperception that so-called speculators are driving prices to unjustified levels, the Goldman analysts said. “Unfortunately, we do not think the energy crisis will be solved by finding and punishing the big bad speculator.”
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=ayxRKcAZi630&refer=home
#19,
Clotpoll, how about taking out a mortgage and defaulting on it, it’s better than a bank run, it’s bank over-run.
“Santelli just called the Fed a charity organization.”
Clot,
That was a compliment.
grim Says:
May 6th, 2008 at 6:01 am
From CNBC:
Layoffs Loom at Morgan Stanley, JPMorgan, Lehman
Wall Street is being hit by another wave layoffs, with Morgan Stanley, Lehman Brothers and JPMorgan Chase all set to axe staff in the near future.
…
Chief executives of major wall street firms tell CNBC that the unofficial head-count reduction on Wall Street overall is 10 percent per firm as a result of losses and declining business stemming from the disappearance, at least for now, of the once-lucrative structured finance business.
grim: From what I understand, the bulk of these jobs are located in SoCal, Caracas and Havana.
ooops….
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601103&sid=adSiHtVyQXmc&refer=us
“Realistic public- and private-sector policies must take into account the fact that traditional foreclosure-avoidance strategies may not always work well in the current environment,”
From the main article.
Add this to the list of hopeless traditional strategies.
Sure. The heads of Fannie & Freddie already know how the endgame will play out. They are silently being prepped as bankruptcy/bailout vehicles.
Silently? This is screaming loud and clear..
Fannie Mae’s regulator agrees to reduce capital surplus
Fannie Mae’s federal regulator said on Tuesday it will reduce the company’s capital-surplus requirement to 15% from 20% when Fannie Mae completes a new capital-raising plan
05/06 08:10 Homeowner Perception of Home Value Inches Closer to Reality in Q1 but Wide Gap Still Exists, According to Zillow.com(R) Q1 Homeowner Confidence Survey Despite Record-Breaking Value Declines in Q1, More Than 70 percent of Homeowners Believe their Home’s Value Increased or Stayed the Same in the Past Year; Yet Reality is: 75 Percent of U.S. Homes Decreased in Value
SEATTLE, May 6 /PRNewswire/ — Despite continued home value declines nationwide, U.S. homeowners remain bullish about their own home’s value. For the second consecutive quarter, homeowner perception about changes in their personal home value is markedly off from the reality, according to a recent Zillow(R) survey of homeowner confidence conducted by Harris Interactive(R).
(Logo: http://www.newscom.com/cgi-bin/prnh/20060503/ZILLOWLOGO ) Perception-Reality Gap Remains Wide
According to the survey, 72 percent of homeowners believe their home’s value has increased or stayed the same the past year. The reality is 75 percent of U.S. homes actually decreased in value from the same period a year ago, according to Zillow. In fact, in the first quarter home values dropped 7.7 percent year-over-year, which was the largest year-over-year decline in more than a decade, according to the Zillow Q1 Home Value Report released separately today. Since the confidence survey was first conducted last December, homeowners show signs they are moving closer to reality as 5 percent more respondents in Q1 said they think their home value has decreased in the past year compared to those surveyed in Q407.
Homeowners in the Northeast may have a better grasp on reality than those in other parts of the U.S. as 27 percent of Northeast homeowners believe their home increased in value in the last year, which was in line with the actual increase (26%). While more homeowners in the West believe their home has decreased in value (37%), it’s wildly off from the actual 85 percent of homes that declined in value in the last year.
From Bloomberg:
U.S. April Business Bankruptcy Filings Increase 49%
U.S. business bankruptcy filings in April increased 49 percent from a year earlier, the biggest gain so far this year, as the slowing economy prompted more companies to shut down.
Business filings rose to 5,173 during the month, according to statistics compiled from court records by Jupiter eSources LLC in Oklahoma City. Total bankruptcy filings, including those by individuals, were up 31 percent from a year earlier to 93,096, the group said.
Signs of distress, such as bankruptcies and foreclosures, are rising as economic growth has slowed to its weakest pace since the last recession in 2001. The economy lost jobs in April for the fourth month in a row, for a total of 260,000 jobs cuts so far this year.
#29 Chifi
That my friend is natural selection at its very finest. Classic line:
“From a business standpoint, this was the stupidest thing I ever did. But it was so easy.”
#2 grim: UBS is also exiting the municipal bond business;confirmed this morning.
I have been predicting for months that 1 or 2 of the big players in munis would bag the business, and UBS (old Paine Weber) was a big, big player.
3b,
I’ve heard the muni headcount at UBS is approximately 300, can you confirm?
From the AP:
Fannie Mae loses $2.2B in 1Q; warns of “severe weakness”
Fannie Mae said Tuesday it lost $2.2 billion in the first quarter as home-loan delinquencies mounted and home prices declined more sharply than the mortgage finance company had expected.
The company said it expects “severe weakness” in the housing market to continue this year, bringing increased mortgage defaults and foreclosures.
Fannie Mae, the largest U.S. buyer and backer of home loans, said it would raise $6 billion by selling new stock. The company will cut its dividend, starting in the third quarter, to 25 cents a share, to generate around $390 million a year.
#36 grim: the head count in NYC is over 500, plus muni operations in Weehawken,and at least 7 or 8 regional muni desks around the country.
They had some very well paid traders and sales people there, and for the most part there will be no place for these people to land.
It is a big loss for the muni business, but as I said, I am not surprised.
From Chicago’s post #29:
Jerry Tao, a part-time lawyer and spokesman for Evofi One’s parent company, lost access to his $50,000 Countrywide line despite earning more than $500,000 last year and having a credit score he says was between 750 and 770.
Replacing Pathfinder
Though he never accessed the line, Tao, 40, said he’d hoped to redo his backyard and replace his 1995 Nissan Pathfinder.
Let me get this one clear: You made 500K+ last year, you won a house and YET YOU STILL NEED 50K Home equity???
Another one:
“If you had anything on the ball, you could make it happen in Vegas,” said real estate agent Donna Marie Gold, 62, who built a $4.5 million fortune buying and selling properties over six years.
After failing to complete a single sale last year, Gold said she fell $22,000 short each month on payments needed to maintain 14 properties. Now two to four months behind on some mortgage payments, she’s lost access to a $250,000 Wells Fargo & Co. equity credit line.
I thought she made 4.5 millions?? What Mortgage?? Why get HELOC???? Come on 14 properties even at 300K – is about 4.3 mil. She should be able to pay them off, right???
Great find Chifi.
Aftet looking at how messed-up economy is, and people are, I think I will rent that house I found – rent is 30% below comparable sqft apartments!!!
Bring on 15% interest rates!!!
6
I remember watching them build that house and thinking what were they going to do if they ever need to sell it. There couldn’t be comparable home.
The folks who say the housing market will stabilize anytime soon must be smoking some really strong stuff.”
– Dean Baker, co-director of the Center for Economic and Policy Research in Washington.
Perception-Reality Gap Remains Wide
According to the survey, 72 percent of homeowners believe their home’s value has increased or stayed the same the past year. The reality is 75 percent of U.S. homes actually decreased in value from the same period a year ago, according to Zillow
I am currently seeing this first hand. an elderly (extended) family member is currently looking to seel/reverse mortgage/ HELOC their house to pay for nursing home care. her and her children are sure they can get 350+ because that was what someone offered2 years ago. The recent comps in the immediate area are between 230 to 280K and dropping fast, at least the ones that really want to sell.
39….Darwinism…..pure and simple.
The Way Our World Ends
by Patrick J. Buchanan
This is the way the world ends/Not with a bang but a whimper,” wrote T.S. Eliot in the closing couplet of “The Hollow Men.”
Eliot’s poem was written after the Great War of 1914-1918 had carried off 9 million soldiers, wounded twice as many more, brought down the Romanov, Hohenzollern and Habsburg empires, and ushered onto the world stage Lenin, Stalin, Mussolini and, soon, Adolf Hitler.
Readers have ascribed various meanings to Eliot’s words. One college professor of English suggested Eliot was looking back to the “whimper” in the cradle in Bethlehem that signaled the end of the old world, the Pax Romana, and the coming of the new Christian age.
Some saw it as the whimper of a man facing the executioner’s axe. Others say Eliot was referring to the middle-aged protagonist of “The Love Song of J. Alfred Prufrock,” who had “measured out my life with coffee spoons” and soon would “wear the bottoms of my trousers rolled.”
Recent reports suggest God has another end in store for us.
An Augusta, Ga., group, The National Policy Institute, has meshed the figures on fertility rates with the continents and races on Planet Earth — to visualize what the world will look like in 2060.
In 1950, whites were 28 percent of world population and Africans 9 percent, a ratio of three-to-one. In 2060, the ratio will remain the same. But the colors will be reversed. People of African ancestry will be 25 percent of the world’s population. People of European descent will have fallen to 9.8 percent.
More arresting is that the white population is shrinking not only in relative but in real terms. Two hundred million white people, one in every six on earth — a number equal to the entire population of France, Britain, Holland and Germany — will vanish by 2060.
The Caucasian race is going the way of the Mohicans.
Arabic peoples, 94 million at the birth of Israel in 1948, outnumbered seven to one by Europeans, will rise to 743 million in 2060, a tenfold increase, and will be 75 percent of the white population.
Fleshing out the NPI picture is the U.N. population survey of mid-2007 that points to the 21st century disappearance of Western Man.
By 2050, a fourth of all the people of Eastern Europe will have vanished. Ukraine will lose one-third of its population. Russia, 150 million at the breakup of the Soviet Union, 142 million today, will be down to 108 million. Such losses dwarf what Hitler and Stalin together did to these countries.
CIA Director Michael Hayden said this week that Russia will have to import workers from the Caucasus, Central Asia and China, exacerbating already serious racial and religious tensions in a nation with thousands of nuclear weapons.
With Russians east of the Urals outnumbered 100 to one by the Chinese, there is little doubt who will control the oil, gas, gold and timber of Siberia and be staring hungrily across the Bering Strait at Alaska.
By 2050, Iran’s population will have risen from today’s 71 million to 100 million. Pakistan will add 84 million to reach almost 300 million, the U.S. population today. Afghanistan’s population will triple from 27 million to 79 million. Iraq’s will go from 29 million to 62 million. The destinies of these nations will be beyond the capacity of an aging, dwindling, dying West to dictate.
The U.N. statistics, however, show the populations of Northern, Western and Southern Europe stabilizing or falling only slightly.
How can this be when only Iceland and Albania have fertility rates — 2.1 children per woman — that can stop population declines, and all the rest have birthrates that would put bears, birds and wolves on the endangered species list?
Answer: Western Europe’s populations are being sustained by immigrants from the Maghreb and Middle East, Asia and Africa — and the baby boom among these black and brown peoples is lifting and changing the face of the Old Continent forever. Islam is returning to Iberia, Italy and the Balkans. The Third World is coming to colonize the mother countries.
And America? According to the Pew Research Center, the Hispanic population of the United States will triple to 127 million by 2050, as Mexico’s population grows to 130 million. An erasure of the U.S. border, or merger of the two countries, or the linguistic, cultural and social annexation of the American Southwest by Mexico appears fated.
Yet, last October, in another Pew poll of 45,000 people in 47 countries, a majority in 46 expressed fear of a loss of their traditional culture.
Sixty-two percent of Americans told Pew we should do more to protect our way of life. Three-fourths of Americans wanted more restrictions on immigration. Yet all three presidential candidates voted amnesty for the 12 million to 20 million illegal aliens.
Hopefully, the peoples of Asia, Africa and the Middle East, who are about to inherit the earth as we pass away, will treat us better than our ancestors treated them in the five centuries that Western Man ruled the world.
Otherwise, we all go out with a bang.
Essex,
population growth is the hot potato that no one is willing to touch. While china’s implementation of its birth control policy is certainly “sub optimal” global population growth needs to go negative for a while
“Swiss Reinsurance Net Profit HalvesOn Further Subprime Write-Downs”
That CAN’T be true!!! bi and S&P said there would be no more writedowns!!!
i will have to find the link, but someone has run some basic calculations that suggest that if you want the entire world to live a US/european lifestyle, then the world population should be no more then about 1 billion people. we are currently at about 6.8 billion….. whoops
Here we go again…
Merrill Says Level 3 Assets Jump 70% in First Quarter (Update1)
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601110&sid=aXqAIBLZr6YM
4 grim
“Wall Street is being hit by another wave layoffs, with Morgan Stanley, Lehman Brothers and JPMorgan Chase all set to axe staff in the near future”
That means “Wall Street” in the figurative, rather than literal, sense. The actual layoffs will all take place in California.
Clot,
In case you missed it yesterday’s thread.
” You were missed” (-;
KL
just got this in an office email
We will be visiting to share some great news about our home loans.
We’d like to let you know that, for a limited time, we will be offering an opportunity to lock in a low home equity rate of 3.99%. This introductory HELOC rate allows qualified Proponent members to enjoy affordable monthly payments and save money.
A Home Equity Line of Credit (HELOC) is a great way to:
Consolidate higher-interest credit card debt
Pay for home improvements
Pay for education costs and other large expenses over time.
During my investment club meeting last week, our education segment was a loan officer from HSBC. It was very informative to know exactly how they qualify loan applicants. Everything was going really well until she started talking about HELOCs. I told her I don’t have one nor need one. She said that was silly and that I should open one because I might not be able to in the future if I needed one. I said that I heard that many who have them are getting them involuntarily shut down, especially those who do not use them. So once again, how will this help me?
One interesting tidbit she shared with us was that if you planned to buy a 2nd investment property, don’t go deduction crazy on the first property in the tax year return prior to planning to purchase the next property. This is a red flag as it shows that if you can’t make money off the first property, then how will you make money by adding a second. I hadn’t thought of that.
She did restate a lot of what was stated on this blog and said that you must be squeaky clean to get a loan today. Most of the loans she was approving were 10-15% down now.
One thing that was a little disturbing is that she said she was paid a salary but made a commission based on the size of the loan. Isn’t it strange to motivate a loan officer into putting people into larger loans when her other duty is to try not to put the bank at greater risk?
What do I know?
#10 Clot,
Bingo. If prices drop another 30% I would be very concerned.
This bubble could burn us all.
I would never take a loan out from HSBC. Ever.
If Bergabe gets to bail out the FBs, what’s in it for those who are fiscally prudent? We get to foot the bill? Lovely.
I don’t know about you but I feel a bit cheated. There we all were, led to believe by so many commentators that the sub-prime crisis was going to force the United States into a new era of dust bowls and breadlines, a slump that would call into question the very functioning of the capitalist system in the world’s largest economy. Carried away on the surging wave of their own economically dubious verbosity, the pundits even speculated that this unavoidable calamity might presage some 1930s-style global political cataclysm to match.
Well, it’s early days, to be fair, but so far the Great Depression 2008 is shaping up to be a Great Disappointment. Not so much The Grapes of Wrath as Raisins of Mild Inconvenience.
http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/business/columnists/article3876863.ece
Bugabe is the manchurian candidate.
56,
the great depression did not become full blown in the course of 6 months either! someone should check their history
Pat Buchanan isn’t the first one to sound the population alarm bell. What the alarmists forget to consider is that future growth rates will most likely plummet in developing countries. Mexico’s growth rate has crashed along with large swaths of Latin America as their economies have opened up. Economic and educational opportunities for women is the only way to slow population growth – free birth control and voluntary sterilization programs have minimal impact. The immigrant populations in Europe breed like the locals after a generation or two. I wouldn’t worry about an Arab horde re-taking the Iberian peninsula or Chinese pouring into Siberia.
some here might find this interesting
“Bad Money: Reckless Finance, Failed Politics, and the Global Crisis of American Capitalism”
Renowned political analyst Kevin Phillips argues successive administrations have imperiled the U.S. economy by a combination of short-sighted policies and a trend against regulation. These include unparalleled credit-card debts, the expansion of financial industries such as hedge funds, ballooning national debts, and deliberately altering statistics like inflation and unemployment to mask the accurate picture.
With the collapse of the housing market and the rise in oil prices, much attention has been paid to the question of whether the U.S. is in a recession. But is it possible the nation’s economic well-being is in even deeper financial straits? A new book by the renowned political analyst Kevin Phillips argues it is. Phillips says successive administrations have imperiled the U.S. by a combination of short-sighted policies and a trend against regulation. These include unparalleled credit-card debts, the expansion of financial industries such as hedge funds, ballooning national debts, and deliberately altering statistics like inflation and unemployment to mask the accurate picture.
A generation ago Phillips wrote “The Emerging Republican Majority” which Newsweek described as the “political bible of the Nixon administration.” Throughout the 1970s and 1980s Phillips was viewed as one of the GOP’s top theoreticians and electoral analysts. But today he’s considered one of the leading critics of U.S. political culture.
Kevin Phillips” latest book is “Bad Money: Reckless Finance, Failed Politics, and the Global Crisis of American Capitalism.” It’s the fourteenth volume in his series of reflections on U.S. political culture, following the bestseller “American Theocracy.” Kevin Phillips joins me now from Houston, Texas.
http://tinyurl.com/6ldl2h
# 24 “Are the unemployed taking taking the trains, like in Japan?”
If things get bad enough, riding a train all night may become a cheap form of housing.
# 39 “who built a $4.5 million fortune ”
Ahh, paper gains. Until the gain is realized, it does not exist.
Jmac,
The color or ethnic make up of future populations is irrelevant to me personally. But there is a strong link between income/education and birth rate. the best case scenarios put humans leveling out at 9+ billion people in 30 – 50 years. You cannot support an significant % of that population at the american/european level of life style.
not to stray to far afield, but i understand you correctly Jmac then i disagree and suggest that population is a problem on a global scale
25#, bob, if that is the case and it stays there for a period of time, i see WWIII is imminent. apparently oil market is not a free market. it is the case that have-countryies manipulate the market and take money from other countries. For example, the state tax on crude oil in russia is about $60 a barrel, which is at the price level of last summer.
25 BC
“There’s a fundamental misperception that so-called speculators are driving prices to unjustified levels, the Goldman analysts said. “Unfortunately, we do not think the energy crisis will be solved by finding and punishing the big bad speculator.”
Housing, on the other hand….
22 clot
“Santelli just called the Fed a charity organization.”
I have a crush on Rick.
BC Bob 25
The bloomberg article left this out
“We believe the current energy crisis may be coming to a head, as a lack of adequate supply growth is becoming apparent and resulting in needed demand rationing in the OECD areas in particular the United States,” Goldman Sachs analysts said in a research note Monday.
cnn
http://tinyurl.com/42q4jp
Bi 64
the resource wars have already started. see Iraq War II and the 14 planned permanent bases.
# 53 “If prices drop another 30% I would be very concerned. This bubble could burn us all.”
All the more reason for those who have a home already to pay off the mortgage and for those who do not, to ait and accumulate capital (or to purchase raw land while waiting to buy a home).
For those of us who own our homes outright, the values can drop 90% and it will not affect anything other than our net-worth calculation.
32 john
reminds me of the survey I once heard where 70% of Americans think they’re in the top 10% of drivers in terms of skill.
Economic and educational opportunities for women is the only way to slow population growth – free birth control and voluntary sterilization programs have minimal impact.
how about involantary birth Control???
Just for fun: There are water-soluble heterocyclic compounts, intake of which leads to 100% male’s Sterilization…..
I was making one of thouse as my side-job in contract lab, to make some $ while in school…. I was wearing full body suit, respirator and triple gloves (probably unnessessary).
Just add couple of kilos to city water supply and you have you “population control”.
The immigrant populations in Europe breed like the locals after a generation or two. I wouldn’t worry about an Arab horde re-taking the Iberian peninsula or Chinese pouring into Siberia.
Tell it to France. They are projected to have Muslim majority in just 15 years. And Muslims will not be politically correct to non-Muslims. In Koran crime against non-believer is not a crime.
44 essex
Buchanan is wrong because, put politely, today’s demographic trajectories are unsustainable, and nowhere more so than in the areas Buchanan is most terrified of.
53 bairen
“Bingo. If prices drop another 30% I would be very concerned.”
Maybe, but propping up housing prices is not a solution, despite Bergabe’s opinion.
“25#, bob, if that is the case and it stays there for a period of time, i see WWIII is imminent.”
bi,
No disclaimer? I guess bi is a synonym?
63 kettle
It’s been since ~1750, but at long last the Malthusian Scissors will close again.
From Reuters:
Wachovia restates, nearly doubles loss
Wachovia Corp, the fourth-largest U.S. bank, on Tuesday nearly doubled its previously reported first-quarter loss because of a write-down on three contracts in a bank-owned life insurance portfolio.
The bank is now reporting a net loss available to common stockholders of $708 million, or 36 cents per share. On April 14, it reported a loss of $393 million, or 20 cents per share.
Kettle,
Population isn’t the problem. The problem is carrying capacity. The earth could support the current population, perhaps more, if we lived a simpler, sustainable lifestyle … and by sustainable I don’t mean hybrid cars and organic blueberries flown in from Chile in the dead of winter to Whole Foods. I’m talking powerdown, low animal protein consumption existences with little fossil fuel use. We’ve artificially enhanced the earth’s carrying capacity with fossil fuel use (fertilizers and food transport) and we will inevitably return to a sustainable population base. The question is whether it’s a peaceful transition over a generation or two, or a violent one (which may also take a generation).
NJ patient
Its interesting that most modern/popular economics is based on natural resources essentially being limitless and that supply/demand will adjust for any scarcity. I am not so sure that many people have thought that process all the way though to its logical conclusion. what happens when food/clean water/energy become to expensive. these resources are relatively inelastic. eating 1 meal a day instead of 3 is slightly different then buying a civic instead of a BMW. drinking contaminated water is slightly different then switching from Dom to sutter home
78 Jmac, i disagree.
the current 6 billion person population is indeed sustainable as is 9 billion, assuming that we all live like tibetan monks. While i have nothing against tibetan monks, i do not wish to live like that. I would imagine that most people do not want to live like tibetan monks.
i agree that we need to reduce our consumption and our ecological footprint. but what is the point of maintaining a population that is forced to live a relatively meager lifestyle. Space programs, semi conductor research alternative energy development are all high intensity activities that require significant resources. unless we want to give up a certain level of technological development and then the only answer is a smaller population.
there are 2 choices. A large population with a very small resource availability per person, or a smaller population with a higher resources availability per person.
“Space programs, semi conductor research alternative energy development”
In the past, we argued bull/bear sentiment regarding the bubble. It is obvious that has been put to bed.
Rick Santelli Takes Down Jim Cramer
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SGkrNJ19DSU
‘there are 2 choices. ‘
This dilemma itself rests on an assumption about energy.
everything, 83
please elborate
i am illiterate today :(
i meant …
would everything is broken please elaborate
Why is everyone blaming Oil?
Look at the rest of the commodities. Gold.Silver. Wheat. Rice. Corn. Meats. other metals.
They’re all up. Do you really think it’s supply and demand for all of them.
Everyone was saying last week that there is no shortgage of oil hence current prices are unsusatinable. What they fail to recognize is that while there is no shortgage of oil there is also no inventory buildup. It’s simply the market equilibrium where market uses up all the oil at the current price.
Look at housing. It’s expensive and overpriced at current level hence the glut of inventory.
This is purely the purchasing power of US Dollar.
Priced in Gold (my currency of choice) oil is actually flat. No increase.
Can we get up a site that asks for Bergabe’s resignation.
BC Bob Says:
May 6th, 2008 at 11:09 am
“Space programs, semi conductor research alternative energy development”
In the past, we argued bull/bear sentiment regarding the bubble. It is obvious that has been put to bed
I find it quite funny as well – but it just shows that heated debates about housing, from two eyars ago, even early last year are now in the past.
it is general consensus,that there was a housing bubble of epic proportions not supported by fundamentals.
There is nothing to debate here.
What we can debate about is how will thouse fundamentalls come back to the market – will it be through inflation?? Through large price drops? Through deterioration of quality of lie (e.g we will only have income to pay mortgage and taxes buy food and gasoline).
No big screen TV’s and fancy vacation except for elite 1% of populationin USA.
So discussion is naturally shifts to issues like mass transit, oil prices and inflation, food availability.
seems like this could backfire…
Chrysler also announced an offer that caps the price of gasoline at $2.99 a gallon for three years for people who buy or lease new vehicles from Wednesday through June 2. The offer is based on 12,000 miles of driving per year at the vehicle’s rated fuel economy.
Customers will get a card for buying gas that is linked to their own charge account, Chrysler said. The customer will be billed $2.99 a gallon, and Chrysler will pay the rest.
http://money.cnn.com/2008/05/06/news/companies/chrysler_jobs.ap/index.htm?cnn=yes
The Earth’s capacity to feed billions more people that already exist is limitless as long as you can make a profit doing so.
If a severe lack of natural resources was an impediment to sustaining a doubling of the population every 50 years then New York City would not exist today. No iron is forged there, little electricity is produced and water is piped from 200 miles away. I would guess not a single calorie of food is grown within a 100 mile radius of NYC during the winter months but no one starves to death.
The problem with population control is the US is helpless to do anything about it. Germany is trying a program where college educated employed professionals are giving incentives to have babies. In Germany the problem is the native born employed Germans were not having kids. They were the ones who can afford to raise them and send them off to college and turn them into tax paying citizens. The unemployed and the new influx or Muslins are intent on pumping out kids as they received benefits just for having kids. Welfare/dole people being incentized to have more kids who will also be on welfare is a nightmare, even worse when they are poor non German speaking people.
The US could never ever create a program to encourgage the US born college educated mcmansion crowd with three empty bedrooms to have children as it would set off a political firestorm. Instead the 21 year old girl in the projects with three kids from three different fathers is who we support with govt money.
“Priced in Gold (my currency of choice) oil is actually flat. No increase.’
make [86],
From St Paddy’s Day, this is not true.
Make money
Virtually all of the commodities are dependent to varying degrees on energy intensive processes. Oil equals energy so if energy supply is becoming constrained and hence more expensive then commodities become more expensive. The world economy can be modeled using thermodynamics. In thermodynamics, you must continually add energy to a system in order to maintain order in the system. If energy inputs into the system become reduced for whatever reason then you will not be able to maintain the current level of organization. Energy is THE root of economics whether it takes the form of oil, or a craftsman exerting his energy gained from food to create a product for sale.
I am not an economist , and no i did not stay at a holiday inn express last night either
Koran [2.191] And kill them wherever you find them, and drive them out from whence they drove you out, and persecution is severer than slaughter, and do not fight with them at the Sacred Mosque until they fight with you in it, but if they do fight you, then slay them; such is the recompense of the unbelievers.
So the Media is now on a Full Court Press for a bailout.
NY Times today.
“It’s not irrational to be thinking about a bailout,” said that person, who requested anonymity, fearing dismissal.
To keep profits aloft and meet affordable-housing goals set by Congress, the companies (Fannie and Freddie) began buying huge numbers of subprime and Alt-A mortgages, the highly profitable loans often taken out by low-income and riskier borrowers. By the end of last year, the companies had guaranteed or invested in $717 billion of subprime and Alt-A loans, up from almost none in 2000.
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/05/06/business/06fannie.html?_r=1&hp&oref=slogin
Kettle,
That’s it! At the next GTG, we’ll have to have some old fashioned fisticuffs.
Our dilemma is that we’ve had a taste of what technology and a high-impact lifestyle is like, and truth be told, even our poor people live better than medieval royalty did. I don’t want to give it up either.
You’re right about the search for tech progress and alt. energy being resource intensive. We have a choice to use the remaining sources to sustain 70 mile commutes from McMansions to office parks, or try to find another way to life the life we enjoy in a sustainable fashion.
91 bc,
It’s catching up. It ascually allowed me to buy some more so I’m very happy about that.
It won’t be long until we get to the $1,000 number and then beyond. You know that.
“Chrysler also announced an offer that caps the price of gasoline at $2.99 a gallon for three years for people who buy or lease new vehicles from Wednesday through June 2.”
Buy from the manufacturer of your choice. Burn your cc to the limit, gas purchases, and just default. The fed is accepting AAA/Aaa bonds backed by cc receivables. This is much cheaper than $2.99 gas. In addition to this, currently, there is no provision for the fed to accept Chrysler’s. However, subject to change.
r
The Earth’s capacity to feed billions more people that already exist is limitless as long as you can make a profit doing so.
may i introduce the concept of exponential growth?
Suppose someone puts a few bacteria in a petri dish at noon on Monday. Suppose further that the bacteria grow at a rate that causes their population to double every hour. Suppose finally that the growth is such that the petri dish is completely full of bacteria at noon on Wednesday.
Question: When is the petri dish half full?
Many people say Tuesday at noon — halfway between noon Monday and noon Wednesday. That’s linear thinking, and it’s incorrect. Since the population doubles each hour, the dish is half full just one hour before it’s full, i.e., at 11 AM on Wednesday. From noon Monday to 11 AM Wednesday, the bacteria have plenty of room to spare. No worries. Then wham!
What’s the point? When growth is exponential, or when powerful feedback loops are present, we can think everything’s going along fine until just before we hit the wall. Many of the problems that face us — problems of population growth, resource depletion, environmental degradation, political instability — involve exactly this kind of exponential growth caused by powerful feedback loops. If we don’t have an appropriate mental model of what that means, we’ll be complacent right up to the moment when we hit the wall — hard — and, like the king, lose everything.
It’s crucial that we overcome our linear bias. We’re living in a world of exponential growth, and our petri dish is filling rapidly.
make [96],
I got back in on BS, I mean, BLS Friday. I won’t argue your $1,000 call.
galgon Says:
May 6th, 2008 at 6:59 am
“GSMLS Crossed the 36K mark this morning.”
That’s over four months earlier than last year. Wow!
Finished compiling the April GSMLS data, will be posted later in the day.
Inventory continues to grow at a consistent pace.
Stu (52)-
“Isn’t it strange to motivate a loan officer into putting people into larger loans when her other duty is to try not to put the bank at greater risk?”
The idea here is that the underwriting process is a check to any potential excess. Nowdays, it is. Hell, it’s just like the old days.
However, 2001-07? Didn’t work so well.
the great depression did not become full blown in the course of 6 months either! someone should check their history
Agree.
What most people don’t realize is that after the Dow crashed in 1929, it rallied by almost 50% over the next few months. The big banks of the day (many the same as today) did a lot of talking about stabilization, signs of improvement, credit conditions easing and a general recovery. The recovery was short-lived.
Latest sign o’ trouble:
Get a mailing from Chase last night. Includes a $15 Circuit City card along with free 30 days credit protection program. Program is initiated when/if you use this card. Of course you need to cancel the program before the 30 days expire to avoid being billed $8 the next month.
So basically Chase is hoping that people will just look at the $15 Circuit City card and forget the rest while they bilk them of $8 a month and hope the customer never realizes they are being charged. Circuit City is hoping you’ll come in and spend at least double the $15, because $15 isn’t going to buy jack in their store.
That is what things have come to in this country.
kl (50)-
Saw it. Thanks!!!
It’s nice to be missed.
That’s missed, not missing.
66 njpatient,
22 clot
“Santelli just called the Fed a charity organization.”
I have a crush on Rick.
Get in line!
“It’s nice to be missed.”
Clot,
What did your bookie say?
Seriously, Santelli is clearly the only employee on CNBC who is playing with a full deck. I imagine he’s banned from doing interviews with guests because he’d call the on their bs too much.
Kettle 92
I like it.
Al (87) had an interesting typo.
Rather than type quality of life, he erred and typed ‘quality of lie’.
I couldn’t help but think about how great the current DC administration is at delivering a high quality of lie.
stu 110 is that a new unit of measurement? for example:
Ben Bernanke’s QOL (Quality of Lie) reached an all time hight his week as he once again insisted that while inflation may see a slight increase in the next quarter the FED has it well under control and is closely monitoring the situation?
# 103 “The big banks of the day (many the same as today) did a lot of talking about stabilization, signs of improvement, credit conditions easing and a general recovery. The recovery was short-lived.”
The big problem then as now is that there are far too few people with the willingness to look beyond the surface and to conduct a thorough analysis of the fundamentals in order to make an accurate assessment of the economic situation.
It is a common failure in many aspects of our lives. People go and look at the used car and focus on the heated seats, the sound system, the shiny paint, and ignore the engine and transmission. People go into the McMansions and get wowed by the countertops, bathroom fixtures, etc. and fail to notice the flaws in the construction that really matter.
Every day we see upward blips in the market based on little more than hope that things are better now and will get back to normal. C’mon people, get back to spending more than you have.
The National government is tapped out. Most of the state governments are tapped out. A large number or cities and towns are tapped out. We have huge debts and future obligations hanging over those political entities.
On a personal level, the citizens of the United States are tapped out, over-extended, and facing rising prices they just cannot absorb. Nevertheless, there is a hope that if we wipe out massive amounts of mortgage debt things will get back to normal.
We cant get back to “normal” until we have some assets to borow against. Unless another bubble ignites RIGHT NOW, that is not likely to happen anytime soon.
Whatever “recovery” we currently have, it is not based on anything sustainable. The Next president may well walk away with a worse reputation than Hoover.
kettle [111],
The fed expects inflation to moderate in coming quarters.
# 113 Since they exclude food and energy, and price rises for those items are sucking away the income of people, and thus there will be less demand for other items, I suspect they are correct.
I am thinking of nominating Cramer as an inverse leading indicator. Whatever he is pushing, you should short, and buy whatever he is avoiding. Not literally, but I find Cramer has made a lot of awful calls lately.
In another shot at CNBC, Jack Bogle was on CNBC a couple of weeks ago (at least I think it was Bogle), and his investment advice was “don’t watch CNBC. It will make you stupid and poor.”
I don’t think he will be asked back.
sorry BC, thanks for the correction ;)
Re 102, didn’t the realtor push them into a house they couldn’t afford long before they got pushed into a mortgage they couldn’t afford.
Off topic but important, as a fight between the WH and the congress will affect the govrnment’s ability to deal with all issues, including the economy and housing:
House panel subpoenas top Cheney aide
By PAMELA HESS – 1 hour ago
WASHINGTON (AP) — The House Judiciary Committee voted Tuesday to compel a top aide to Vice President Dick Cheney to testify to the committee about the Bush administration’s interrogation practices.
David Addington, Cheney’s chief of staff, refused to testify without a subpoena. No date has been set for his appearance before Congress.
Addington is one of several lawyers believed to have played a key role in crafting the administration’s interrogation policies shortly after the Sept. 11 terrorist attacks, policies which some say amounted to torture.
John Yoo, the former Justice Department lawyer who wrote a now-repudiated memo allowing the harsh interrogations of military prisoners agreed late Monday to testify to Congress about those practices, averting a subpoena. Yoo is now a law professor at University of California-Berkeley.
Yoo’s memo, dated March 14, 2003, outlines a legal justification for military interrogators to use harsh tactics against al-Qaida and Taliban detainees overseas — so long as they did not specifically intend to torture their captives.
Former Attorney General John Ashcroft, former Under Secretary of Defense Douglas Feith, and former Assistant Attorney General Daniel Levin have also agreed to give testimony at a future hearing. Former CIA Director George Tenet is still in negotiations with the committee, according to House Judiciary Committee spokeswoman Melanie Roussell.
The Judiciary Committee hearings are meant to determine what role administration lawyers played in creating and approving interrogation procedures that went far beyond those traditionally used by U.S. forces, and whether any of them violated their legal or ethical obligations, said Committee Chairman John Conyers, D-Mich.
Oils at $122.30! Market rallies.
“Unless another bubble ignites RIGHT NOW, that is not likely to happen anytime soon.”
shore [112],
Present bubble;
Inventory
Foreclosures
Lies
Types of various collateral accepted
Not in any patricular order.
kettle1 Says:
May 6th, 2008 at 9:20 am
Essex,
“population growth is the hot potato that no one is willing to touch. While china’s implementation of its birth control policy is certainly “sub optimal” global population growth needs to go negative for a while”
Considering pollution has been shown to be reducing fertility in Asia, and we are currently using the food supply to run cars, I think population control will take care of itself to a surprising degree.
SO if i want a loan can i use my “Core Income” numbers where core income equals my actual net income added to what i could theoretically make (200K on wall st according to john). So if i make 100K my Core Income is actually 300K! and if i lose my job, my income is still 200K
From the Consumerist:
Countrywide Still Asking Consumers To Lie About Their Income
Countrywide would like you to believe that it put all that messy “predatory subprime lending” business behind it and is no longer coaching consumers to lie on their loan applications in order to qualify them for loans they can’t afford… but are they telling the truth about telling the truth? One woman who recently contacted Countrywide about refinancing her home told NPR that sketchy mortgage lending is alive and well at Countrywide.
“It was really every sleazy move in the book,” says NPR’s tipster, an economic analyst turned stay-at-home Mom who has owned several homes in the past and who is married to a mathematician.
NPR’s tipster says that when she told the Countrywide loan officer that her income was low because she was a stay at home mom, he told her that she could lie about husband’s income because he had “manager” in his job title.
123 Just think about what the captain of a sanitation engineering land expedition vehicke can get away with.
Shore Guy (112):
“The big problem then as now is that there are far too few people with the willingness to look beyond the surface and to conduct a thorough analysis of the fundamentals in order to make an accurate assessment of the economic situation.”
This is why I expect a very bad black ___day very, very soon. If you just open your eyes wide enough, you can see both factual and anecdotal evidence. I can’t believe the tightening of consumer credit has not killed the market yet. I do not doubt that it will, just as housing prices finally collapse in these parts. Patience is what I have a lot of.
121 lisoosh,
dieoff due to mass starvation and disease is not my personal preferred method for population reduction.
recent stats seems to show africa as one of the fastest growing populations. And the question is even if we see a significant population drop due to environmental factors will people as a species be smart enough not to drive our population right back up to a collapse level.
some population charts
http://tinyurl.com/sxncl
124
he probably makes 500K right?
April WARN notices released:
http://lwd.dol.state.nj.us/labor/lwdhome/warn/2008/04-08warn.html
COMPANY CITY EFFECTIVE
DATE
WORKFORCE
AFFECTED
COLUMBUS HOSPITAL
NEWARK
6/1/08
874
JPMORGAN CHASE
WOODCLIFF LAKE
5/18/08
42
JPMORGAN CHASE
WOODCLIFF LAKE
6/1/08
33
FIRST TRENTON INDEMNITY
MARLTON
8/29/08
113
MUHLENBERG MED. CTR.
PLAINFIELD
6/15/08
749
COLEMAN NATURAL FOODS
WILLIAMSTOWN
6/16/08
182
ACCOONA
JERSITY CITY
6/20/08
53
FIRST STUDENT
PISCATAWAY
6/30/08
80
FOOTSTAR
MAHWAH
6/28/08
221
CHR. HANSEN
MAHWAH
6/28/08
50
HAPAG-LLOYD
PISCATAWAY
6/30/08
138
HUDSON CATHOLIC H.S.
JERSEY CITY
6/30/08
42
89 r
I hardly know what to say….
Lordy.
# 125 Stu,
Although I would not like to take the losses myself, in the final analysis, a one-day 20% drop could be cathartic for the economy.
$200 oil?
If you multiply $3.50 retail gas by the percentage increase from $120/barrel to $200/barrel you get gas at about $5.80/gal.
Too simplistic, sure, but probably a ballpark.
I really have to wonder how $5.80 gas (in NJ, higher elsewhere) will effect house prices, utilities, and an eventual economic recovery.
LOL
“So if i make 100K my Core Income is actually 300K!’
kettle,
In addition to this, if you learn to type twice as fast [hedonics], your core income is now 600K.
twice shy,
$200 oil would be more like $8 – $10/gal due to transport cost of the fuel and due to the refinery aspect. As oil becomes more expensive it becomes harder for refineries to secure an adequate supply of oil to maintain maximum utilization. this is somewhat vague, but without writing a thesis here, i will leave it at that.
it could also go higher as there is already talk of rationing and once rationing starts things get ugly.
if you are really curious google Export land Model / Import land model
those layoff above look heavy.
two hospitals, i guess the demos did not work.
what no more money from Trenton?
It’s funny how Bergabe is concerned that a significant decline in housing prices will hurt many, and will impact the economy.
But at the same time fails to see, that a significant decline in house prices will stimulate new economic activity from those potential buyers on the saidelines.
# 131 People will pay. They might not go out to eat, they might not fly down to florida to golf, they might not do lots of things BUT THEY WILL PAY FOR GAS. There just is no other choice. Gasoline is like heroin to the residents of places like Jersey; it may be killing them, but they cannot stop using it or they will die, or at least feel like they are.
3b [135],
Are you talking about pant up demand?
112 shore
“The Next president may well walk away with a worse reputation than Hoover.”
As may the current one. It’s a twofer!!
YHOO; Oil is going to $200/barrel, should be interesting when it get’s to $400/barrel. Pundits will still say it’s in our interests.
Is an Egyptian from Egypt in North Africa, living in the USA, an Arab American or an African American? Where is the geographical boundary drawn in Africa? One has to wonder?
Presently, gas is very cheap.
113 BC
“The fed expects inflation to moderate in coming quarters.”
Yeah – it’ll moderate your wallet and be incoming on your hindquarters.
121 ‘soosh.
Agree.
What’s new…
#125 Stu:I can’t believe the tightening of consumer credit has not killed the market yet.
It has nto killed the market yet, I too am surprised. However, it is starting to, otherwise there would not be all that inventory sitting out there.
There are those that are wating to buy, like the people here, but I would imagine there are those who want to buy now, but cannot becasue of the tightening standards.
Amazing as it sounds, I think there are a fair amoutn of people out there who have no idea that things have changed until they actually bid on a house, and then try to get a mtg.
“Patience is what I have a lot of.”
Me too. And Patients.
126 kettle
“And the question is even if we see a significant population drop due to environmental factors will people as a species be smart enough not to drive our population right back up to a collapse level.”
Malthus would say no.
I wonder what the current presidential candidates take on the energy and economic issues really are, not their public opinions. Do any of them think they will come out the other side of a presidential term without taking the heat for the economy and energy?
140. BC Bob Says:
May 6th, 2008 at 12:47 pm
Presently, gas is very cheap.
True, current Pundit projections indicate it needs to be $10/Gallon, to resolve supply issue. Luckily, Food and Fuel will not effect inflation numbers. Unfortunately, it will effect life.
#137 BC Bob Yep!! Did you see this morning UBS is closing its muni bond dept?
There will be at least one more big one to announce before the year is up IMO.
Can we stop referring to it as “Inventory” and begin referring to it as “Pant Up Supply”?
145 patient,
that is the next step in our development as a species. learning to behave intelligently instead of instinctually. will we survive the transition? we are the equivalent of a 16 yr old with the car keys to a ferrari
Gasoline is like heroin to the residents of places like Jersey; it may be killing them, but they cannot stop using it or they will die, or at least feel like they are.
Talked to another car salesman the other day about trading in my SUV for a tinycar ™. Got an even worse offer this time around.
2003 Nissan Pathfinder SE, 60k miles, excellent condition, brand new tires, brakes, 60k service, etc.
Edmunds Trade Price: $10,094
KBB Trade Price: $10,500
Dealer offer on trade in? $3,000.
Why bother trading it in? I might as well drive it until it dies. Gas savings will never recoup the depreciation loss.
Dealer told me not to bother trying to trade an SUV in, they don’t want them, and nobody is buying them. Dealer told me that he talks to half a dozen SUV owners a day.
kt
“we are the equivalent of a 16 yr old with the car keys to a ferrari”
And daddy’s BP card.
#102 clot: Welcome back. Are there really lenders out there still doing that? Today, still?
No lesson learned yet?
Classes
My Top-Tier
Law School Should
Have Offered as
Warnings About
the Profession.
BY E. NOAKES
– – – –
Cutting and Pasting Legal Lingo
Explaining Business Associations to the People Who Are Running Them
4 A.M. Word Processing and the Law
Ethics of Conspicuous Consumption
Forwarding E-mails: Theory and Practice: Seminar
Arbitrary-Deadline Negotiation Strategies
Crying Quietly: Clinic
Cutting and Pasting II: Plural to Singular
http://www.mcsweeneys.net/links/lists/16E.Noakes.html
The SUV bubble has burst.
these 2 graphs look similar dont they
http://tinyurl.com/4frjtz
“No lesson learned yet?”
Bergabe, Paulson, Frank and co are trying to create a lesson-free society, dontcha know.
http://tinyurl.com/4u6omq
kettle – is that disease v. population? Not sure I’m understanding.
Dealer told me that he talks to half a dozen SUV owners a day.
And most all of them flip out/storm out.
“Dealer told me that he talks to half a dozen SUV owners a day.
And most all of them flip out/storm out.”
Another case of “insulted by the offer.”
Grim:
Bankrate.com:
Trading in gas guzzler may cost you
http://biz.yahoo.com/brn/080502/25295.html?.v=1&.pf=family-home
patient
chart 1 shows a typical bacterial growth curve
chart 2 shows human growth where 0 equals 0AD and the y axis is the # of people in millions
both charts show exponential growth charateristics
Also said that Cadillac Escalade owners were the most cranky of the bunch.
Told me that his $3k offer on my truck was pretty good when you compare it to what they offer on Escalades from the same year. He said maybe $6-7k on the Escalade, even though it cost more than twice what my Pathfinder cost new.
CFU and OD are ways to measure bacterial growth,
OD is optical density and CFU is Colony Forming Units
this is what happens when a 16 year old takes the keys to his father’s Ferrari:
http://video.aol.com/video-detail/son-crashes-fathers-ferrari/1006685693
3b Says:
May 6th, 2008 at 12:56 pm
#137 BC Bob Yep!! Did you see this morning UBS is closing its muni bond dept?
There will be at least one more big one to announce before the year is up IMO.
3b: It’s not the same Weehawken and Stamford.
Weehawken is a small town outside of Monterrey Mexico in Juarez county.
Stamford is actually an auto dealership in Urbana IL. It is properly spelled “Stam Ford”.
[154] patient,
I actually offered to teach a similar course at my law school, though not quite so negative, and geared more toward jr. lawyer survival skills.
Was politely rejected.
http://cbs4.com/consumer/rents.condos.retal.2.715122.html?ref=patrick.net
rents are falling
There is a very complicated formula we use in modern finance to calculate the return…
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601103&sid=aSlb8pOZVOng&refer=us
[MV / Cost] – 1 = return
It took me several hours, plus a lot of CPU time, but I estimated -86%
#167 chgo: Thanks for a minute there I wrongly assumed they were in the NYC area.
Oh but can you tell me where there 1221 Ave of the Americas muni sales and trading desk is located?
I think it is Caracas right?
people actually BOUGHT new SUVs?!? I just assumed these were all leased…
Last december I paid $4k for my $38k new 1998 Jeep Grand Cherokee 5.9L. All the bells and whistles, sounds like thunder, goes like hell, and gets 11mpg.
Only driven ~50miles/week though so until a 100mpg car for
less than $20k comes out the Jeep will do jus fine.
I am in thesame situation… We have a nissan X-terra – bought it when lived in Denver, CO. having it here is just doesn’t make sense. But I can not trade it in as loss of about 7K on price will neglect any gasoline savings even at 6$/gallon.
and my wife does not work – so last year we put about 1800 miles on the SUV (in a year).
A loan to increase core income will work if you have no intention of paying that loan back.
The thing that amazes me is how come heating fuel and electricity is never mentioned as a problem in all these mcmansions. Try filling up a 1,000 gallon heating fuel tank at four bucks a gallon.
My wifestill have a 2005 GMC Employee Pricing Envoy XL that has been averaging 9.9 MPG since new. Their is a boat load of underwater 2005 employee pricing SUVs out there as those deals were if you bought them. But heck the 2004 and 2006 buyers of SUVs are even worse off as they paid full price new. At this rate the train parking lot will be filled with monster SUVS with one person in them and the wife’s will be driving kids around in shoeboxes. Who cares about gas milage when you only do 15 miles a week to the train. They better widen the spots.
From CNN/Money:
It is a recession, 79% of Americans say in a new poll.
A new poll shows that more Americans than ever before think the economy is in a recession.
A national CNN/Opinion Research Corp. poll released Tuesday found that 79% of respondents – nearly 4 out of 5 – believe the economy is now in a recession. That is up from 74% of Americans in March and 66% in February.
Back in October, just 46% of people responded to the question “Do you think the economy is in a recession, or not?” with a “Yes.”
#177 and they pass for housing in a pinch.
SUV’s
Shows that auto loans with a lot of SUV’s underlying as collateral are in trouble. Those heavily financed SUV owners should just jingle mail it…
If dealers are paying 6-7k on a trade-in, I wonder what they are trying to retail the Escalade? Is the ask a lot larger to cover the bloated depreciation of their inventory?
Funny enough – if you are trying to buy used SUV – according to dealers prices are only 1-2K below Blue book value – great deal!!!
kettle1 Says:
May 6th, 2008 at 12:33 pm
121 lisoosh,
“dieoff due to mass starvation and disease is not my personal preferred method for population reduction.”
Not mine either, but I get a certain perverse satisfaction from the thought that if we push the planet hard enough it will push us right back. I think mankind could probably use a hard lesson in humility.
Now I understand why it is a good idea to have Fannie take on even more bad debt. Where is Alice, and that looking glass?
http://money.cnn.com/2008/05/06/news/companies/fannie/?postversion=2008050612
Fannie offers dismal housing outlook
Mortgage finance firm cuts quarterly dividend as it moves to shore-up capital in the face of losses.
By Chris Isidore, CNNMoney.com senior writer
Last Updated: May 6, 2008: 12:39 PM EDT
NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) — Mortgage financer Fannie Mae warned Tuesday that the tumbling home values and loan defaults that have crippled the U.S. economy are likely to worsen, after posting a far larger-than-expected first-quarter loss.
The firm said it now forecasts that home prices will sink 7% to 9% this year, 2 percentage points worse than its previous decline range forecast, a drop that could leave prices 19% off of peak levels.
Fannie also increased its reserves to cover bad loans it has backed by nearly $2 billion, and said it expects a worse outlook for credit losses in 2009 than it is seeing this year.
To preserve the capital needed to ride out the rough times ahead, Fannie Mae (FNM, Fortune 500) announced it is slashing its dividend and will try to raise $6 billion through additional stock sales.
[snip]
Confused In NJ Says:
“Is an Egyptian from Egypt in North Africa, living in the USA, an Arab American or an African American? Where is the geographical boundary drawn in Africa? One has to wonder?”
If he is an Arab Egyptian and not a Nubian Egyptian he would define HIMSELF as Arab American. Arabs are quite particular about how they are defined – both ethnically and cuturally.
John; Who cares about gas milage when you only do 15 miles a week to the train.
Good point, gas needs to be $100/gallon to change behavior.
Nom Deplume (168)
I teach part-time at a law school and tried to interject what the reality of the profession is to the perceived fantasy. Not one of my students picked-up on my hints to drop law school and go to business school.
Fed auctions $75 billion to banks to ease credit woes, total is $435 billion since December
Actually, I would like them to tax the hell out of gas asap to force drivers to alter their behavior and raise tax revenues while lowering demand for oil rather than end up their anyhow via an Arab holdup.
Speaking of law school..
Seton Hall or Rutgers Newark?
Or should I bite the bullet and go with Cardozo?
Part-time is a must.
An Egyptian who thinks he is African is in deNile.
In NJ there seems to be a huge desire to be percieved as being wealthy, and if not wealthy, at least doing better than most other people. This comes out in people striving for the outward trappings of success: the too expensive car, the too expensive house, the clothes that cant’t really be afforded but have to be worn anyway, yadda, yadda. It sems like many folks would rather actually be poor than be seen to be something other than doing really well. Living within ones means is just out of fashion.
FOr this reason, I suspect many will hang onto the gas hogs, id only to go to the train because downsizing would be a blow to the image. The same for housing, until push comes to shove, folks are going to hang on for image purposes alone. Thus, it would not surprise me to see a slow extended decline followed by a crash.
CUNY Queens law school $370 a credit.
# 189, which one can you bike to?
Grim. Unless your undergraduate degree is from a top 25 school and unless your law degree is from a top 10 school, it really will not matter as much in getting a job as your first-year class rank and first-year gpa will.
Also said that Cadillac Escalade owners were the most cranky of the bunch.
It’s probably a good time to go long on a gently used SUV. Owners are dumping them on the cheap, without really understanding the economics of the depreciation hit versus the higher cost of gasoline.
At $4 per gallon driving 15k miles per year, the difference in gas cost between a Toyota Corolla and a GMC Yukon is $1,750 per year. This is a conservative example. People are taking hits in the uppers $1,000’s just to get rid of their SUV. The hits some people are taking will likely exceed the value of fuel savings over the next few years.
If you are worried about gas prices going even higher, you could always hedge with oil/ NYH gasoline futures or an oil ETF (USO).
BC (107)-
I should’ve told him I gave up gambling.
BTW, he’s a former mortgage broker.
163 kettle
Thanks.
“Also said that Cadillac Escalade owners were the most cranky of the bunch.”
Predictable. And yet, still funny.
Shore (112)-
“The Next president may well walk away with a worse reputation than Hoover.”
Shore, I think the current prez has just about got this title locked up for himself.
168 Nom Deplume
My favorites are:
Arbitrary-Deadline Negotiation Strategies
Crying Quietly: Clinic
Agreed. Bush will make the next prez look like FDR.
Kettle
People are smarter than bacteria.
They create more space or discover new space when conditions become crowded.
Here is an interesting factoid for all the Malthusians.
The entire population of the earth could fit in an area the size of Yugoslavia (old) if packed in at the density of Manhattan.
Plume (115)-
“Jack Bogle was on CNBC a couple of weeks ago (at least I think it was Bogle), and his investment advice was “don’t watch CNBC. It will make you stupid and poor.”
I don’t think he will be asked back.”
No big. You can catch him on Charlie Rose 2-3 times a year. Charlie even lets him complete a thought and speak in full sentences. Much better than watching the donkeys on CNBC try to goad him into giving them zany sound bites.
BTW, nobody will top Bogle’s sayonara statement to which you referred. The guy probably doesn’t want to be invited back.
171 3B
“I think it is Caracas right?”
I’m right across the street from Caracas!
Plunge Protection Team at work…
Fannie Mae to Loosen Policies to Combat Housing Slump (Update1)
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601110&sid=a9oy299Yq6K8
Significant news, if it filters down the chain.
151 Grim
Sell it on your own. There are enough idiots still out there that don’t care about environmental issues and don’t do the math to figure out the gas costs are ridiculous. They are usually the early 20 somethings living with mom and dad and have no plans of leaving anytime soon.
186 escape
“Not one of my students picked-up on my hints to drop law school and go to business school.”
To be fair, the JDs have somewhat better job security at the moment.
191…As Clint Eastwood said in Dirty Harry…” A man’s gotta know his limitations”.
188 john
smart-john posting today.
192 John
Queens College’s program is for people planning on becoming public defenders and working for public causes. The lawyers on the board can correct me if I’m wrong but I understand that top firms rarely recruit their students.
3b (153)-
Not the lenders who wholesale through my operation. They are putting everybody thru the procto-exam…even my 750+ FICOs with DPs.
However, we parted ways with Countryfried’s wholesale correspondent (America’s Wholesale Lenders) over 2 years ago, so I have no idea what their retail originators are doing. They are so slow and desperate (most times when I pass by the local Countrydied place, they’re all outside smoking), I’d imagine some of their guys would do anything.
Most current borrowers I know watch enough news to now consciously avoid that company. A sure sign of imminent death.
Perceived wealth? Just turn on MTV. No wonder why things are the way they are.
Can we stop referring to it as “Inventory” and begin referring to it as “Pant Up Supply”?
The NAR already refers to inventory as “choices” or “selection”. An increase in inventory is thus referred to as “more choices than ever before” or “best selection in years”.
Now MTV has brought on the decline of Western Civilization?
Rent (213)-
I call them future fiesta houses.
210 lost
correct – much more likely to recruit from Brooklyn law if they’re looking that direction.
#214: You should see the garbage on that network…
191 Shore
“In NJ there seems to be a huge desire to be percieved as being wealthy, and if not wealthy, at least doing better than most other people. This comes out in people striving for the outward trappings of success: the too expensive car, the too expensive house, the clothes that cant’t really be afforded but have to be worn anyway”
That reminds me – I owe you guys some Del McCoury lyrics – give me a moment…
Last installment from New Orleans – here are the first two verses of “Man Can’t Live on Bread Alone”, by the Del McCoury band. IMO, this not OT:
The Dow Jones took a dive today,
Another bank closed its doors.
A man downtown tried to fly away
From it all on the 18th floor.
Everything he worshipped
Ain’t worth nothin’ now.
He had a Jaguar in the driveway,
And a house with 18 rooms.
Every night he’d dine alone,
Fed from a silver spoon.
Guess he never figured out
You ain’t what you own:
Man can’t live on bread alone.
219 Patient
Great stuff!
# – 219 He had a Jaguar in the driveway
Well, there’s his problem. The maintenance will kill ya!
I, for one, will never ever drive in a damn tin can as it’s really unbecoming to me. I drive a large sedan and an SUV and they’ll have to pry both of them from my cold dead hands before I get in a tin can.
Confused In NJ Says:
May 6th, 2008 at 1:53 pm
John; Who cares about gas milage when you only do 15 miles a week to the train.
Good point, gas needs to be $100/gallon to change behavior.
“from my cold dead hands”
50.5,
Positive first step. You are no longer in denial.
From MarketWatch:
Feldstein sees U.S. economy sliding into recession
Martin Feldstein, the influential Harvard University economist, said he believed the U.S. was “sliding into a recession.” In an interview on Bloomberg cable news television channel, Feldstein said while things have gotten better recently, “just about every indicator is down” from late last year. Feldstein said the fundamentals support a further drop in the value of the dollar in foreign exchange trading. He said the Federal Reserve should stop cutting its target for short-term interest rates because there was little more to be gained from lower rates. But even a Fed pause won’t spark a rally in the dollar, he said.
222. Good for You! Make a stand. And read the interesting article by Malcolm Gladwell that might make you feel completely ridiculous for driving something that is inherently dangerous to you and others…and incredibly inefficient.
http://www.europac.net/Schiff-CNBC-9-18-07_lg.asp
Did I mention that I love this guy. Enjoy this interview from Sept 2007 when the feds started lowering rates.
Negative equity map for Bergen County (Less thn 8%):
http://www.zillow.com/static/images/quarterlies/2008-Q1/Negative-Equity-NewYork-NY.jpg
My wifestill have a 2005 GMC Employee Pricing Envoy XL that has been averaging 9.9 MPG since new. Their is a boat load of underwater 2005 employee pricing SUVs out there as those deals were if you bought them. But heck the 2004 and 2006 buyers of SUVs are even worse off as they paid full price new. At this rate the train parking lot will be filled with monster SUVS with one person in them and the wife’s will be driving kids around in shoeboxes. Who cares about gas milage when you only do 15 miles a week to the train. They better widen the spots.
I have an 07 Envoy SLT; averaging 15.3mpg’s right now. I’m pretty heavy on the gas pedal, so the fact that your wife is getting 9.9 really suprises me, she must be driving that thing like it was stolen!
Granted the specifications were 15/city and 19/highway, it’s decent on gas. Much better then the 99 Navigator I had that got 11.7mpg’s, if I had that thing right now my fill would be over $100.
-R
I, for one, will never ever drive in a damn tin can as it’s really unbecoming to me. I drive a large sedan and an SUV and they’ll have to pry both of them from my cold dead hands before I get in a tin can.
Thank you for your support!
even a hybrid car could be dangerous…I say mopeds for all!
NJPatient,
I agree with you that the JD job security is a bit better. At this stage I am not too worried. However the pay vs. the hours worked is the problem. I would estimate that only 10%- 15% of the attorneys between 26 -35 make the big bucks. The rest of us are fighting for every dollar.
Grim,
Your question as to which law school? In closed meetings with my students I tell them only two people need to apply to law school: 1) The student who is accepted to Harvard, Yale, NYU or the other US News top 25 and 2)If your last name is the same as the one on the letterhead of the firm you plan to work at. Take this with a grain of salt, I am a bit jaded.
I really shouldn’t complain, my commute is 4 miles each way.
Re Fannie:
http://www.minyanville.com/articles/index.php?a=17042
Dow cracks 13K. Didn’t think I would see that again. I thought my next stop would be the 10K floor.
grim,
Did you take the LSAT yet?
sl
Not yet, didn’t even schedule. Study partner?
Yup we are in a recession.
Molson Coors Brewing Co., one of the world’s largest brewers, on Tuesday reported a jump in first-quarter profit as its sales rose more than 10 percent on growth in its U.S. and Canadian businesses.
http://www.signonsandiego.com/news/business/20080506-0957-earns-molsoncoors.html
236 grim
You should be able to tear that exam to pieces – you have the mind for it.
237 Sean
Can’t wait to see the returns for Shaefer.
Can anybody (before you move on to the new thread) tell me the name of the “bear” analyst/commentator who looks like a surfer-dude with long blonde hair? Mental block.
#226 –
that is insane, he was so dead on. he did not miss one thing that is happening right now.
Not sure if this has been posted?
“May 5 (Bloomberg) — Morgan Stanley, the second-biggest U.S. securities firm, plans to reduce headcount as much as 5 percent in the next few months after bets on subprime mortgages saddled the bank with a $3.6 billion fourth-quarter loss.”
“Mark Lake, a spokesman for New York-based Morgan Stanley, confirmed the job cuts, which will come mainly in the U.S. and won’t affect the firm’s retail business. Morgan Stanley, which employs about 47,000 people, has already shed at least 3,000 jobs since October.”
“It’s going to be a difficult year for the Street,” Mack, 63, said at the firm’s annual meeting in April. Mack told shareholders the markets are facing the most difficult conditions he’s seen in 40 years.”
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601103&sid=aH3O241QVhbw&refer=us
Pat [240],
The only “bear” analyst with blond hair that I know of is Meredith Whitney. However, I don’t know if she looks like a surfer dude?
#234 PGC: It won’t last.Lots of ugly days ahead.
Twas a good day to be in CCJ:))
222.reinvestor101 Says:
May 6th, 2008 at 2:59 pm
I, for one, will never ever drive in a damn tin can as it’s really unbecoming to me. I drive a large sedan and an SUV and they’ll have to pry both of them from my cold dead hands before I get in a tin can.
Good point, Government seizure of vehicles and personal commitment to Greystone is viable alternate option.
Jack,
Negative equity map for Bergen County (Less thn 8%):
http://www.zillow.com/static/images/quarterlies/2008-Q1/Negative-Equity-NewYork-NY.jpg
If I’m reading it correctly, it looks like Hoboken has 8-18%.
That can’t be, Hoboken is near Manhattan.
Grim,
If you plan on taking the LSAT, best of luck. Make sure law is what you want to do. Talk to as many lawyers as possible. I have friends and colleagues who love it and hate it but all agree that the actual practice of law is not what they expected. Lots of pushing paper, CYA letters and kissing much butt.
Hehehe,
I realize that seems unlikely. However, according to zillow (ok, not the best source I know), someone in my building lost almost 8% in just the past 30 days.
I was kidding. I just have friends and that’s their knee jerk argument for why Hoboken prices can’t drop.
grim,
I have materials up to 2004.
Yeah, which test date, though. I need time.
sl
249 Escape
A law degree can be a very useful thing for all sorts of endeavors not involving the practice of law, of course.
(FWIW, I’m only a lawyer for (a) the money and (b) the job security. The glitz and glamor are entirely secondary).
I realize that. My remark probably should have been written:
I realize that seems unlikely.
/sarcasm
Denial is rampant in Hoboken still.
253 Patient
If I thought I had a chance at doing decently on the LSAT, I would have been a lawyer. I am terrible at standardized tests and with schools putting so much stock in the exam, I didn’t think I had a chance.
clot,
where ya been?
FYI: I divorced myself from the toxic Fla family. My REAL family is much happier (and so am I.)
sl
248 hehehehehehe
“That can’t be, Hoboken is near Manhattan.”
hehehehehehe.
But seriously, where is pretorius? I need a dose of optimism.
253. hear, hear.
As a doc, I just want the knowledge. No interest in practicing as much as consulting.
Best practical education money can buy.
Trust me.
I speak from experience.
sl
Yeah, which test date, though. I need time.
Likewise, I don’t think I’d even be able to prep before fall semester is over.
255 lost
They do put a heck of a lot of stock in that exam. It’s all language and logic, for the most part, so you might just pick up a practice LSAT book from Barney Noble and try it out to see how you do taking it cold.
That’s what I did about two months before my comprehensives for my MA, discovered that I could crank out a pretty good score, and switched from music to law (which worked out pretty well in the end (ok, that’s debatable, but at least I’ve been able to make the pie higher and put food on my children)).
njpatient Says:
May 6th, 2008 at 4:59 pm
255 lost
ok, that’s debatable, but at least I’ve been able to make the pie higher and put food on my children
This comment sounds like Marion Barry…..
LSAT,
Took it last minute at Stanford while visiting my brother in San Francisco on vacation without any exam prep course. I bought some book last minute but it wasn’t much use trying to study over a week of getting drunk, visiting Napa and skiing in Lake Tahoe etc.
Funny thing is I did pretty good on it, like 88th percentile or something. In retrospect I wish I had taken one of those prep courses cause I’d probably done better on the logic questions and gotten into a better school. Reading comprehension has always been a breeze. Thank God they don’t have any math.
Actually had some friends who really wanted to be attorneys that did pretty lousy. Personally I didn’t really want to be an attorney at the time but didn’t want some real world job either.
All in all worked out well, run the reference staff in the library of a major law firm. A job I fell @ss backwards into but turned into a pretty nice career, decent salary and benefits. Not always the case though. I have a few friends who are miserable practicing.
I’d agree with Escape in that make sure its something you really want to do because the financial/time commitment of law school can be a real drag. If I hadn’t gotten divorced when I did and got that money from the condo sale I’d still have about 20K of student loans I’d be chiseling away at each month.
Ps. The above is a true story despite its “Johnish” overtones
258 still
exactly – perfect set of facts you have there. Plenty of directions for you to go from your position – consulting, public policy, etc.
medical admin.
But seriously, where is pretorius? I need a dose of optimism.
Maybe he works @ UBS. I hear the layoffs have already started.
261 chi
“This comment sounds like Marion Barry…..”
Pretty close. Wrong cokehead politician, though.
265 hobo
“Maybe he works @ UBS.”
Maybe, but I had assumed that he’s more property-specific (i.e., works with a REIT).
G*d and grim only know.
some stories….guy I work with says a friend’s son in California, 30 years old, just lost his job at Lehman. He gets 2 years pay and the value of his last bonus. Not bad.
Other antidote: heard of a woman trying to trade in a 3yr old Ford Explorer…no place she visited will take it as a trade = value $0
260 njp
true. and over 160 can get you a free ride.
I cancelled my oct 04 score after talking to my cousin, Henry C. He went to NY Law and landed at GS.
Would [drooling] love Cardozo though. Home of the Innocence Project. And a PART TIME program.
sl
njpatient Says:
May 6th, 2008 at 5:10 pm
265 hobo “Maybe he works @ UBS.”
Maybe, but I had assumed that he’s more property-specific (i.e., works with a REIT).
G*d and grim only know.
njp: oh crap…..that didn’t even register as a thought for me…..you know what, I’ll give you odds that he is out of town…pret..acknowledge?
Your SUV stories confirm that North Jersey is six months behind Central and PA/Phil.
This was the situation with SUVs when I bought a car in early November near Philly.
Have the roads already been cleared of them, mostly, during the commute up there?
“I’ll give you odds that he is out of town…pret..acknowledge?”
I had assumed so – scouting commercial property in London again (what with prices dropping and all).
271 Pat
“Have the roads already been cleared of them, mostly, during the commute up there?”
clogged as ever, in my experience.
#69 shore guy…if you look at my parents as an example, they bought in a new development in 1962 and still own the home. if you charted the gain and loss over time, there were examples of 8-10 years at a time when their home didn’t go up in value at all. Other examples where it went down a little. Just so happens it is a win win if you bought in ’62. However, if you purchased a home in 2001 and sold in 2006 like me, you doubled your investment…guess that is why they call it timing. Minute by minute valuations associated with bubbles make people think of housing in investment terms. I sold my home to move to another school district, period.
New thread!!
Jack Bauer (227),
Negative equity map for Bergen County (Less thn 8%):
Looks to me as if they have no data for Bergen County. There is no way the ENTIRE county is less than 8%.
Regarding the Zillow map at #227
My wife tells me I’m colorblind, but I can clearly tell that Bergen is not shaded in the color that denotes “less than 8%”.
It is shaded gray because there is no data for Bergen.
#268 2 years unlikely, more like a year.
95, jmac: word. having spent some time playing with medieval recreationists: it’s a fun place to visit, but i wouldn’t want to live there. it’s exhausting, and hot (and cold and wet) and trying to keep small ones from falling into firepits or onto swords is a full time job. it really makes a person appreciate the leisure we have now– the leisure to think, to argue, to just sit.
Your right about there being no data for Bergen. My bad.