From the Wall Street Journal:
‘Underwater’ Need Not Mean Foreclosure
What does being “underwater” in your house really mean? Probably not that you’re drowning.
The number of underwater homeowners — those who owe more on their mortgages than their home is now worth — has been growing sharply since 2006 as real-estate prices have tumbled. By some estimates, between one in six and one in eight homeowners are in that position, most of them people who bought homes in the past few years or who put down small or no down payments.
This worries economists and policy makers, since owing more than your home is worth is the first step toward foreclosure. And it’s a concern to the rest of us because foreclosures are roiling the financial markets and, closer to home, they drag down our neighborhoods. (Most people who still have equity, by contrast, would rather sell their houses at a loss than lose what’s left of their investment.)
…
But experts who have studied previous sharp housing downturns in Texas, California, New York and Massachusetts say that being underwater, while unpleasant, doesn’t lead huge numbers of homeowners to default on their mortgages and end up in foreclosure.Christopher L. Foote, Kristopher Gerardi and Paul S. Willen of the Boston Federal Reserve Bank studied more than 100,000 homeowners who were underwater in Massachusetts in 1991 and found that just 6.4% of them lost their homes to foreclosure over the next three years, according to a paper published in the September Journal of Urban Economics. The vast majority of homeowners simply continued paying as usual because they focused on the affordability of their payments, not on what they owed, and they believed home values would eventually recover.
…
The economists found that homeowners typically lost their homes only after at least two things happened: Their home values dropped and they either couldn’t afford the payments or stopped making payments after losing hope that prices would eventually recover.
…
Typically, homeowners fall behind after a job loss, divorce or serious illness. In the current downturn, foreclosures are higher than in previous cycles because more homeowners reached beyond their means to buy their homes and simply can’t keep up the payments. As a result, the Boston economists project that up to 8% of underwater Massachusetts homeowners could lose their homes between now and 2010 — a significant amount, but still not catastrophic.
People are underwater all the time in cars, stocks, etc.
Property is just a larger scale.
the study they reference was done in 1991 and i”m sure most had 30 yr rather then arm loans
Woke up this morning, got myself a gun……
Lots different then too. Home equity loans were not as popular, household debt was less, folks were smarter then (just kidding about that last one.)
dl
your not kidding
Govt. not promising bailout
http://www.specialoperations.com/mout/moutpoi32.html
Ket: from yesterday’s thread about armor in urban environments.
(moderated – moved to election thread)
Buy Real Estate Now
Rent-to-own: A debatable path to homeownership
The End of America’s Capitalist Fantasy and the Shape of Banks to Come
In the end, it was taking no risk that created the greatest risk of all — giving stupid people free money.
It’s popular to blame Bush (it’s actually just plain fun, but it’s getting a little old) for the lack of regulation that allowed this circus to develop. But it wasn’t Bush. The French did it, the Brits did it, the Russkies did it, too. And so on. Two-bedroom apartments in Mumbai were going for more than $3 million. Let me repeat: Mumbai.
The only people who didn’t get sucked into this morass were the Japanese (who now, once again, have all the money in the world), but that’s only because the bubble didn’t last long enough to suck them in.
So the election is finally over back to the normal real estate/stocks/guns blog now?
Grim, Will we be seeing sales graphs for the summer soon? I really want to see how the 2008 selling season stacked up to the years before.
Great slogan, “free money for stupid people.” I wonder if a bank posted that sign, how many of us would walk in?
can’t (511, yesterday)-
Wanna know what I can’t stand here (It’s not black people, BTW. I don’t have a problem with black, brown, red or yellow folks. God knows I have plenty of other problems, but this isn’t one of them.)?
What I can’t stand are people who assume to know complete strangers through posts they make in cyberspace. And on that count, I find you guilty. Guilty of stupid. I’d prefer to insist that you’ve prejudged me, but I don’t want to amp you out by asserting that YOU might be the prejudiced one here.
I’d probably find having a black person be my boss pretty interesting. After 20+ years of self-employment, it would at least be a change of pace.
Good morning all. Happy to have the old blog back. Europe markets not looking too good this morning.
stu (15)-
Averaged way down over the past few days (short, as always). Locked and loaded.
By the unemployment report Friday, all the sucker rally gains from the past few days should be puked back.
Fell asleep too early last night. Did the d’s get to 60 in the Senate?
If so, let the plunge to 7,500 begin.
All hype –
What’s the best place to get cheap bullets? Dick’s sporting goods, i thought, was a bit expensive. i have a personal policy never to walk into Wal-mart (it has been 3 years), but i hear the cheapest bullets are there.
From the Daily News:
Bloomberg shifts gears, plans 3,000 cuts to cope with budget tsunami
Mayor Bloomberg plans to send out 500 pink slips as part of his goal to slash 3,000 jobs from the city’s workforce to cope with the budget crisis.
The layoffs will come from various agencies, said a source, who would not identify which will be hit.
To meet the target, City Hall is canceling the January Police Academy class, eliminating 475 education positions and chopping night hours at five fire engine companies, his administration revealed Tuesday.
Bloomberg, who recently said layoffs were unlikely, will announce the job cuts today as part of his midyear budget changes.
DL
i wasnt shooting down tanks in urban environments, just pointing out unique weaknesses that may be present.
from the link
Tanks move down streets after the infantry has cleared them of any suspected enemy anti-armor positions and in turn, the tanks support the infantry with direct fire.
ok enough armor tactics.
who is ready for Corzine as treasury sec??? he’s done well with nj hasnt he?
i am in possession of some of the shiny stuff, but i’m hoping to get more.
still, i haven’t seen one person on this board post a link to somewhere online they have successfully ordered gold from. i’m not really up for the pawn shop … don’t know that you’re going to get legit stuff from some guy at a pawn shop.
From MarketWatch:
Challenger: Oct. U.S. job cuts near five-year high
U.S. employers announced plans to drop 112,884 workers from payrolls in October, the highest figure in nearly five years, according to outplacement consultant Challenger, Gray & Christmas. Heavy downsizing in the financial and automotive sectors contributed to the 19% rise in job cuts from September’s total of 95,094, the firm said. October cuts were 79% above the same month last year. The October figure is the largest since January 2004. Employers have cut 875,974 jobs in 2008. That’s up 14% from the 768,264 lost in all of 2007, Challenger said, and is the largest 10-month total since 2003.
yikes (21)-
Don’t turn your nose up at the pawn business. It is huge, successful and- at least in the domain of publicly-traded companies- 100% legit.
I have traded in and out of this company for 2- 3 years. Were I to be long anything, this would be it. In fact, as things get worse, I’ll probably start averaging in:
http://finance.google.com/finance?client=ob&q=NASDAQ:EZPW
Re Yikes Says:
November 5th, 2008 at 7:38 am
I have ordered ( and family) several times from Colorado Gold :
http://www.coloradogold.com/
NEVER a problem.
Yikes,
The problem with buying physical locally is that you are going to be paying tax on it. Almost never pays to buy local once you tack on tax and whatever premium over spot you’ll pay. Apmex is an option, I’ve purchased/sold with them before. Or, find someone locally willing to sell for cash (hint hint).
“free money for stupid people.”
Take a vacation on the house.
You deserve it.
Equity? You don’t need no stink’en equity.
We are close to Manhattan, declines never occur here. (I love this one being said in Shore communities south of Toms River.)
From CNBC:
Mortgage Applications Slump, Costs Increase
U.S. mortgage application demand skidded last week, driven by a nearly 30 percent slump in demand to refinance home loans as borrowing costs rose, a trade group said on Wednesday.
The Mortgage Bankers Association’s seasonally adjusted mortgage applications index, which includes both purchase and refinance loans, slid 20.3 percent to 379.9 in the week ended Oct. 31.
Requests for applications to buy homes as well as refinance mortgages have been swinging dramatically since early September as chaos swept over global financial markets.
The trade group’s seasonally adjusted purchase index dropped 13.9 percent to 260.9, while its refinancing applications gauge sank 27.8 percent to 1,075.4 in the last week of October.
Average 30-year mortgage rates increased by 0.21 percentage point to 6.47 percent last week, matching the level of the week ended Oct. 10.
Libor’s Biggest Drop Fails to Match Fed, Spur Loans (Update3)
Nov. 5 (Bloomberg) — Credit markets are still creaking even after the biggest decline on record in the rate banks say they charge each other to borrow dollars.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=azojeJ8lsGfg&refer=home
(moderated – moved to election thread)
(deleted)
(deleted)
Yes, we can proceed to impoverish our middle class at hyperspeed now.
See my post at 7:55 AM on the election thread.
The powers that own the US have finally learned that it’s easier to control things by creating a caste system than by fomenting racial hatred.
From Bloomberg:
Ambac Posts $2.43 Billion Loss as Bond Values Drop
Ambac Financial Group Inc., the bond insurer that lost 86 percent of its stock market value in the past year, posted a third-quarter loss as it set aside at least $3 billion to pay anticipated claims.
Ambac dropped as much as 26 percent in early New York trading after the company said its net loss widened to $2.43 billion, or $8.45 a share, from $360 million, or $3.53 a share, a year earlier. Excluding changes in the value of securities it holds and insures, Ambac said in statement today that its loss was $7.81 a share, compared with an average estimate for a loss of $1.09 from five analysts surveyed by Bloomberg.
Ambac’s prospects are dimming as business grinds to a halt, plans to start a new municipal bond insurer stall, and writedowns the company had taken in past quarters continue to morph into actual cash claims. Moody’s Investors Service, which stripped Ambac of its last Aaa ranking in June, placed the ratings back under review in September after raising its expectations for losses on mortgage securities the company guaranteed.
“The big issue for bond insurers is their ratings and I suspect Moody’s is waiting to see earnings,” said Jim Ryan, an analyst with Morningstar Inc. in Chicago. “If the rating agencies pile on, that could create more problems.”
Ket: We agree, it’s a combined arms operation. Once in Moscow I listened to 2 four star GOs argue about the value of tanks in urban ops. We did 14 shots of vodka that night and by the end of it we were one big happy family. No doubt, SAS was in on it, I probably just didn’t recognize him.
Clot – You are a good American. Thanks.
If the gubmint decides to give underwater homeowners a three year, tote-the-note vacation, will their lenders declare it a credit event and demand payment from mortgage insurers?
If so, you can kiss the MI industry goodbye.
Not that they are ever likely to come off life support, no matter what…
Nom – Wnen is the Brigadoon GTG? I owe Shore a drink.
Currently, one can deduct the mortgage interest, taxes, etc. for a second home and, eventually, shield the gains from cap gains taxes. This is not something that benefits the great mass of people (perhaops someone here has stats on second homes).
We are in a boatload of financial difficulty right now and O will need to raise money to pay for extended unemployment benefits, job training, etc.
What are folks’ assessment of what affect, if any, that removing the tax advantages offered to second homes will have on RE demand and, hence, prices?
And thanks, Grim. Wasn’t aware of the heavy taxes. Stuff I have came from a relative, free. mostly, jewelry. hence the hunt for coins.
Gator,
As poor as I expect to be before loong, I think I may need a case of wine, lol.
Good to see the talk back on financial failure, urban combat techniques and what’s left of RE.
This election was a very annoying distraction.
ADP number just out. Sucktastic.
Massive revisions downward on Sept numbers, too.
Get long? Long what? Pawnshops and canned soup companies?
Bloomberg is telling folks that YOY cuts have to be made NOW and then again soon. I don’t know if they are enough but, it is a step in the right direction. Has anyone heard even a single mayor, freeholder, or other official call for YOY cuts in NJ governemnt cost or size?
Yikes,
If you go across the river and buy in NY, there is no sales tax if you spend over $1,000, which is pretty easy when an oz is $700+.
The auto industry wants to re-instate the tax deduction on interest from car loans. The problem with all these “make money cheaper so people can start to consume again” schemes is that Joe Sixpack cannot absorb any more debt.
Corzine on Squawk, whoring for a cabinet post by feigning disinterest. Rendell on also, trying to make out with Corzine.
Has everyone remembered the DONATION button that appears when you open each new thread? It’s easy – Paypal – It is the best use of your credit card today….
Clottpol – I need some help finishing this limerick!
There once was a blogger named Grim
* * * * * * * *
All who share in his site
Should do what is right
And pony up money for him.
dl (48)-
Even if Joe 6 had some money…why does he want to buy some POS tinheap that represents a failed attempt to amortize healthcare obligations more than it does a well-engineered vehicle?
“The auto industry wants to re-instate the tax deduction on interest from car loans.”
And why should Detroit be confident that American’s will purchase GM, Ford, or Chrysler vehicles were the deduction reinstated?
Cindy (53)-
…whom no one can mistake for a “shim”
Dow futures dropping fast. CNBC attributing rise in dollar to election result. If the Europeans like us again will they buy our currency?
From MarketWatch:
U.S. Oct ADP private employment down 157,000
Companies in the U.S. private sector shed 157,000 jobs in October, according to the ADP employment report released Wednesday. The report comes two days before the Labor Department reports on nonfarm payroll growth for October. The report suggests that the job report could be very weak. Analysts note that the ADP has overshot the employment report in each of the past eleven months. The report was weak across the board. The goods-producing sector lost 126,000 jobs in October, while manufacturing lost 85,000 jobs. The service-producing sector shed 31,000 jobs.
Who loves to mix tonic with gin?
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shim
Whoa – New word alert…
There once was a blogger named Grim
Whom no one can mistake for a “shim.”
All who share is his site
Should do what is right
And pony up dollars for him.
I assume that the job cuts that various companies announce will boost their share prices, at least in the short term; however, the job losses — which in recent times have tended to be replaced with lower-paying positiond — can only reduce the pool of qualified RE buyers. Is this a situation where the trend lines of the RE market and stock market start to strongly diverge?
[3] all hype,
Hope you also got something to put in it. Not much good without supplies, and the Left has discovered that if you can’t choke off the iron, choke off its fuel. So far, the Supremes have said you have a right to own the iron. No one has yet said you have a right to put anything in it.
FWIW, I placed my order a few days ago.
Corzine’s legacy is an empty bag blowing in the wind
[17] all hype
Dick’s is having a sale this week with some god prices, particularly on .22LR. Don’t know about other cal.
Someone recommended this site to me, http://www.ammoman.com, and I just ordered a couple of boxes, and we’ll see. They don’t deliver to NJ though, so I am having it sent to my “residence” in PA.
Cabela’s also appears to have pretty good prices and a decent selection, though not in my rare 9×18 caliber. Dam# Bulgarians.
Is this racism or is this classism?
From the Herald News:
West Paterson no more
Voters in West Paterson tonight approved a name change to Woodland Park.
A referendum to change the borough’s name to Woodland Park passed by a margin of just 33 votes, according to preliminary results Tuesday night. The results include absentee ballots but do not include 65 provisional ballots that were cast during the day Tuesday.
The referendum marked the fourth time residents had attempted to change the borough’s name. Similar efforts led to East Paterson being renamed Elmwood Park in 1972.
Supporters of the shift to Woodland Park argued that it would improve the town’s image and boost property values. Opponents argued the change was unnecessary, and some called it veiled racism.
[39] gator,
thought you could not make brigadoon? Got no replies except yours and Stu’s regrets, so I had not planned anything.
(deleted)
(deleted)
Comrade,
I may be able to meet folks Sunday late afternoon or early evening or Monday 7:30/8ish.
To All:
Thanks for the gun, ammo and supplies information. Very helpful. I will pass it on to still_looking. She is not going to be a happy doctor today.
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20081104/ap_on_re_as/as_taiwan_china_envoy_15
What does everyone make of this?
Housing Panic is tossing in the towel.
http://housingpanic.blogspot.com/
Not throwing in the towel, just starting a new blog.
#54 grim:Analysts note that the ADP has overshot the employment report in each of the past eleven months.
I seem to remember it being the opposite, in that the ADP report #’s were always lower than the governments
From MarketWatch:
D.R. Horton expects wider quarterly loss
Home builders continue to announce dismal operating results and dividend reductions as the housing market weakens and the companies scramble to conserve cash.
D.R. Horton after Tuesday’s closing bell said it expects to post a fiscal fourth-quarter loss in the range of $800 million to $900 million, including an expected tax benefit of about $350 million. In the year-ago quarter, the builder lost $50.1 million.
“Market conditions in the home-building industry deteriorated during our fourth fiscal quarter and October, characterized by rising foreclosures, high inventory levels of both new and existing homes and reduced liquidity in the mortgage markets,” said Chairman Donald Horton in a prepared statement.
“In addition, consumer confidence has been eroded by a weakening economy, higher unemployment and record volatility in the capital markets,” he said.
62 Nom – Stu and I are all up for a ride out to Brigadoon (it’s really not all that far) as long as we’re available on the date you choose.
Shore – I don’t know about a case of wine, but if you ever find yourself in a good Montclair BYO, Stu and I would be happy to share a good bottle with you from our “cellar”.
StuGator,
Have you guys been to Halcyon yet?
http://seekingalpha.com/article/104100-five-key-quotes-from-centex-s-fq209-results?source=email
Centex Corp.
DL,
what field are you in? you have piqued my curiosity
————————–
Yikes
I may be able to point you to a local guy in morris county who DOES NOT take plastic for shiny metal purchases. I have used him and he is legit.
Get my info from grim if you are interested
Re: West Paterson
It’s definitely snobby-nosed people in WP that don’t want to be associated with “Paterson” in their name. Their punishment is sitting in 30 minutes on the shoulder while trying to exit exit 56 off of route 80 westbound.
I also didn’t realize that the “Elmwood Park” was also “East Paterson” in the past.
-Richie
AH, 66
au contraire, mon fraire…. hubby has already sniffed out ammo leads.
I see a nice relaxing 4 yrs of increased vacation time for me…or more time to work on expanding the family.
Or maybe Clot needs another employee in his office…you know, a nice [shhh cash] job.
sl
Gas is getting cheap and people have short memories. The people in their new Tin boxes if we have a bad winter will throw in the towel. I love to take my wife’s 5,000 Pound plus GMC XL on the road in a storm, inside it feels like heaven and eats the road up, once I pick up a few stranded folks up in their priuses and minis and throw those itty bitty boxes under my monster tires for traction they will be buying again. I like my BMW but that car has no place on the Long Island Expressway in a snow storm with Tractor Trailors everywhere unless I want to end up like Harry Chapman AKA “Scrapin Chapin”
Bloomberg is telling folks that YOY cuts have to be made NOW … Has anyone heard even a single mayor, freeholder, or other official call for YOY cuts in NJ governemnt cost or size?
No, in fact Corzine is talking about increasing spending as a form of economic stimulus. Or in other words, this is an opportunity to expand and further shore-up the democratic/so-shall-ist voting base in NJ by increasing the number of public workers.
74 Grim – Not yet, but I have passed it by on a recent walk and the menu looks very nice. Our tenants have been there, and they pronounced it the best restaurant in all of Montclair.
61 Grim – re West Paterson – Last time they tried to do this, they were going to call themselves Garret Mountain. I guess folks liked Woodland Park a little bit better.
Kinda high falutin from a town whose big draw is the Kohl’s on Rte. 46.
Clot,
Thanks for the posts that still keep me peeing in my pants and threatening to spew coffee all over my monitor……esp on my birthday.
sl
Birthday? Happy Birthday SL!
happy bday SL!!!!!!
Supporters of the shift to Woodland Park argued that it would improve the town’s image and boost property values.
How exactly is the name change going to cause property values to rise? Are they hoping for a huge influx of rich buyers who don’t realize that Woodland Park is next to Paterson?
Elmwood Park is still considered to be “East Paterson” by many. Little prestige was bestowed upon it after it changed its name.
This is all just silliness.
(Note: Grim is pro-Paterson and has been ridiculed for it in the press)
“Kohl’s ”
Could’a been Koles Fork. Now if we can just get NJ down to two or three Washingtons.
“How exactly is the name change going to cause property values to rise?”
I expect the prices in Patterson to rise, now that it is next to the elite enclave of Woodland Park. That rise will cause Woodland Park’s values to rise. Ever upward.
Happy b-day. Now go buy some RE.
Woodland Heights would have been more prestigious.
61 Grim – re West Paterson – Last time they tried to do this, they were going to call themselves Garret Mountain. I guess folks liked Woodland Park a little bit better.
Last time this came up, Paterson threatened to rename themselves East Woodland park.
Just in case anyone decides to foolishly challenge Montclair’s People’s Republic bonafides:
http://www.montclairnjusa.org/dmdocuments/election_08_MTC.pdf
Kearny = Far-east Caldwell
From MarketWatch:
Mall REIT General Growth posts loss
Troubled real estate investment trust General Growth Properties Inc. on Wednesday reported a wider quarterly loss and said it’s still exploring ways to raise capital.
…
The REIT said it continues to “comprehensively examine all financial and strategic alternatives for the company, including, but not limited to, sales of both core and non-core assets, sales of joint venture interests, corporate level capital infusions and broader strategic business combinations.”
…
The company has faced questions about billions of dollars of debt that is coming due that it may not be able to refinance. Some analysts say the company could be sold soon if it is unable to sort out its problems.
Grim – my in laws live in Woodland Park nie West Paterson. Insert Property values with raise taxes and you will understand the name change. They currently pay 9800 on a 2200 sq foot spilt, and that awful little beuracratic nightmare wants more. For some reason the locals also seem to think they are Passaic county’s version of upper Saddle River which I find laughable being from BC. Remember, WP shares a zipcode with Little Falls so it technically doesn’t exist
A co-worker of mine lives in W. Paterson and said the firehouse this morning had a big sign out front “F-Woodland Park”
Apparently there are a bunch of uncounted ballots too.
shore (55)-
The new drink is gin & juice.
From the Herald:
Hudson rail tunnel cost estimated at $8.7 billion
NJ Transit officials said Tuesday that the cost of building a second rail tunnel to New York City will be 14 percent higher than expected.
The transit agency said the estimated cost of the “Access to the Region’s Core” project will rise to $8.7 billion to account for potential inflation.
The North Jersey Transportation Planning Authority is scheduled to vote to amend its Regional Transportation Plan on Monday to include the new cost estimate for the project, which is expected to double passenger capacity to New York City when it’s completed by 2017.
HE (59)-
Corzine’s legacy is just blowing, period.
plume (60)-
Sounds like time for a trip to Bulgaria.
Where do I get hollowpoints?
From Reuters:
GMAC has $2.52 billion loss; ResCap survival at risk
Finance company GMAC LLC lost $2.52 billion in the third quarter, hurt by the housing slump and vehicle lease writedowns, and said its mortgage unit, one of the nation’s largest home loan providers, may not survive.
The fifth straight quarterly loss brought GMAC’s losses since the middle of 2007 to $7.9 billion.
Its mortgage lending unit, Residential Capital LLC, lost $1.91 billion in the quarter, its eighth straight quarter in the red, bringing its losses over that two-year period to $9.1 billion.
GMAC has slashed lending after losses soared because of the U.S. housing slump, mounting customer defaults and falling vehicle sales. Its auto finance unit lost $294 million in the quarter, hurt by higher North American and Latin American credit losses, while insurance operations earned $97 million.
“Economic and market conditions created an unrelenting environment for our business,” GMAC Chief Executive Alvaro de Molina said in a statement. “In this climate, our primary objective is to make prudent use of our resources and take the steps needed to address the reduced access to liquidity.”
# coalcracker Says:
November 5th, 2008 at 7:46 am
Re Yikes Says:
November 5th, 2008 at 7:38 am
I have ordered ( and family) several times from Colorado Gold :
http://www.coloradogold.com/
NEVER a problem.
Just went there. Thanks. Interesting that he wont ship less than 10 oz of gold or 500 oz of silver. My shoddy math tells me that is at least $8,000.
also, no 1/10 oz coins. How f’ing tough are these to come by?
sean (68)-
Good riddance. That dump is about 30 collective IQ points shy of what you can find here any day of the week (perhaps my jaded outlook is informed by the fact that the moderator axed the couple of posts I tried to make…and they weren’t bad, and I didn’t threaten anyone).
The moderator’s rants and screeds were eventually replaced by sycophantic political diatribes, based in nothing but hatred.
Now, he thinks something is “won”? Yeah, right. GWB still has over two months to strike Iran, further s@domize the economy and pardon a career criminal or two. Then the new guy gets to inventory the damage.
Methinks the moderator at that bucket shop foresaw his traffic dropping and decided to launch a new blog…which I cannot imagine will be any different than the old one.
From MarketWatch:
U.S. Oct. ISM services is at record low level
U.S. Oct. ISM services below consensus 47.5%
U.S. Oct. ISM services index 44.4% vs 50.2 in Sept.
“NJ Transit officials said Tuesday that the cost of building a second rail tunnel to New York City will be 14 percent higher than expected”
What were the odds of this? I am shocked. Shocked!
sl (78)-
I could use somebody who can develop a marketing program for me. I’m thinking the most effective first approach to the prospective client would be staging the service of a fake lis pendens notice.
Game?
Happy Birthday!
grim (94)-
GGP is toast. As are at least half of the HBs. As are almost all the MI companies. As are 50% of the REITs.
Happy bday SL!
#68
wow, Housing Panic was one of the first. used to read it regularly back in 2005, but then so much of what was posted on there was just off the charts crazy that it made its main premise seem crazy too. grim’s blog always remained the most thoughtful and substantive of all of the blogs covering the housing bubble. housingpanic I believe mainly covered the Phoenix area so I can understand why the author feels his work is done. it is amazing to me that the NYC area is so far behing much of the country in this regard. there is a lot of pain left to be felt here.
hmmmm to sue my former pediatrician for malpractice or not……..
just got a copy of the medical records for the day baby kettle ended up in the ER and admitted.
An F’ing joke! I am not a doctor but 2 different ones who have seen the notes form that day expressed surprise/concern at the lack of response to an obvious condition……
#109 skpetic:it is amazing to me that the NYC area is so far behing much of the country in this regard. there is a lot of pain left to be felt here.
So very true. Especially sense so much of the economic pain of this recession, is going to be felt in this area.
Kettle1: What field. Gummt. Politico-military affairs.
From CNBC:
Services Sector Shrinks Sharply in October
The U.S. service sector shrank unexpectedly sharply in October, according to a report released Wednesday.
The Institute for Supply Management said its non-manufacturing index came in at 44.4 versus 50.2 in September.
The level of 50 separates expansion from contraction.
Economists expected a reading of 47.5, according to the median of 75 forecasts in a Reuters poll which ranged from 42.0 to 50.5.
The services sector represents about 80 percent of U.S. economic activity, including businesses such as banks, airlines, hotels and restaurants.
[110] Kettle,
Yes. This is a no-brainer.
3b (111)-
It’s all rotting from the outside in.
We’ll be feeling it soon. Nowhere to hide.
Oh and thanks for all of the pediatrician suggestions a ways back. have since found a very good one that we love!!!!
Grim,
All of the economic news is bad. Job numbers news is bad. News about personal debt is bad. News about personal savings is bad. In short, just about every measure of peoples’ ability to make expensive purchases points downward. It is hard to imagine any ability to keep NY Metro area home prices steady, let alone increasing.
[100] clot,
Don’t think they make those for a Makarov. Besides, I think that hollows are illegal in NJ.
From Bloomberg:
GMAC Posts Loss, Says ResCap Mortgage Unit May Fail
GMAC LLC, the financing arm of General Motors Corp. gripped by a cash squeeze, posted its fifth straight loss and said its mortgage unit may not survive.
…
GMAC’s results were crushed by slumps in the housing market, where foreclosures are running at record levels, and in auto sales, which GM labeled the worst since 1945 when it reported October results this week. ResCap, which ranked among the biggest U.S. subprime lenders two year ago, has posted losses totaling $9.1 billion over the past eight quarters.
Without more support from GMAC, “substantial doubt exists regarding ResCap’s ability to continue as a going concern,” GMAC said in today’s statement.
…
ResCap, the Minneapolis-based home lending subsidiary, ranked 12th in 2006 in subprime home loans, which went to borrowers with the worst credit ratings. The unit’s loan production slumped 59 percent to $11.9 billion during the quarter as the company closed its retail mortgage offices, stopped making loans through brokers and cut back on business and international lending. ResCap has halted lending outside of the U.S. and Canada, the company said.
“Paterson lies in the valley under the Passaic Falls
its spent waters forming the outline of his back. He
lies on his right side, head near the thunder
of the waters filling his dreams! Eternally asleep,
his dreams walk about the city where he persists
incognito. Butterflies settle on his stone ear.
Immortal he neither moves nor rouses and is seldom
seen, though he breathes and the subtleties of his machinations
drawing their substance from the noise of the pouring river
animate a thousand automations. Who because they
neither know their sources nor the sills of their
disappointments walk outside their bodies aimlessly
for the most part,
locked and forgot in their desires-unroused.”
William Carlos Williams
http://oldpoetry.com/opoem/35372-William-Carlos-Williams-from-Book-I–Paterson
to All,
Thanks for the BD wishes!
sl
Ket,
details? or off-line?
sl
From Bloomberg:
Glaxo Will Cut 1,000 Sales Jobs in U.S. Under Cost-Cutting Plan
GlaxoSmithKline Plc, Europe’s largest drugmaker, will eliminate 1,000 sales positions in the U.S. as part of a plan to trim costs.
Saddle Brook changed it’s name in 1955 from Saddle River. This was done because they wanted to open up a post office, but the govt wouldn’t let them being that there were two towns in the same county with the same name.
Ket,
Also, which hospital? If you don’t mind saying.
sl
So GS DID IT. Bosses called workers said they were let go and to go to cafeteria. There some office space consultants call ER shoved a package in front of you while a security guard watched and they let you out the door. Workers were gone by 9:30am.
Who and how many, John?
From DealBreaker:
From The Front Lines
Goldman is said to look like “a [kosher] slaughterhouse” this morning. Apparently LevFin has been hit hard, with the focus, as of now, on VPs and admin. No “big names” have been told to pack up their staplers yet, but they may actually be praying to be given the boot– we’re told “there will basically be no comp this year,* especially at senior levels.”
Sl,
quick and dirty version….
Continuous breathing issues for 4 months but was told not an issue by the pediatrician and baby kettle was sent on his way with a steroid injection. One day got really bad so called the doc. they said dont worry about and just wait for the pulminologist appointment that we already had scheduled (against the pediatricians recommendations/desire). 7 hours later we go to pulminologist and as soon as the pulminologist saw baby kettle he called a nurse an started treatments. baby kettle was in the ER within and admitted that night. Pulminologist looked at what the ped had been doing in response and said that the meds used should not have been used in that manner
SL,
We use morristown. have been pretty happy with them.
for us anyway, Boston seems to have been the Aston Martin of medical resources….
Grim, my friend worked over on Maiden, she said they sent her up the escalator the the sep part of building where cafeteia was located they signed her forms without even reading so much as she was near tears and as they were giving her the bum rush she saw a guy and a girl she knew. Guard said to girl I give you a minute to wipe your face before you go and he stood outside ladies room. She said she had no idea. Your boss was sending you down one at a time and ER was doing a rush to get you out of building, she was only there for a minute or two and saw only two other people. It is a big bums rush.
61…This just in West Orange changes their name to Happyville.
#129
so I guess GS is assuming that M&A is going to be dead for a long time if they are canning LevFin people. This is a bad sign.
Goldman is now a bank that is deleveraging what a suprise there are cuts in leveraged financing!
#132 john: When it happened to me an others at GS in 99, the whole process was done in under 5 minutes. You were than given 3 days to sign and accept the severance terms, if you did not agree immediately.
I love to take my wife’s 5,000 Pound plus GMC XL on the road in a storm, inside it feels like heaven and eats the road up, once I pick up a few stranded folks up in their priuses and minis and throw those itty bitty boxes under my monster tires for traction they will be buying again.
Reminds me of the time when, in a West Paterson parking lot snowstorm, i punched the gas on my Ford Explorer, the truck skidded, and slammed into a light post. more annoying than anything. i also had it in 4-wheel drive.
Ford Explorers are a joke.
SL,
the doctors notes seem to boil down to
(parents being a pain, reassure them and get rid of them**)
my interpretation of their verbiage**
Re: 61
How much wooded land is in West Paterson?
There is no such thing as 4 wheel drive brakes. 4 wheel gives you traction to go but all cars brakes lock at once. But anti lock brakes and traction control help out. 4 by 4s are dangerous as people mistake ability to drive in snow and ice with ability to stop in snow or ice. If you slammed a light post and walked away unharmed that was a good thing. Most accidents are caused by the nut behind the wheel.
This one is a few days old but relevant. I don’t normally post these “Special to the…” pieces, but I feel it is accurate.
From the Record:
Loan spigot hasn’t been shut off
Mortgage bankers and brokers have been taking calls from anxious home buyers lately.
“We have been getting calls from people who think that the money isn’t going to be there,” said Mike Carew, senior loan officer with New Jersey Lenders Corp. in Ho-Ho-Kus.
“People are scared. They’re looking at the news, seeing what the stock market is doing. People who are perfectly qualified for a loan are afraid the money won’t be there or they won’t qualify.”
But, if you’ve been reading the real estate classifieds, you can’t miss the ads aimed at reassuring buyers that there is plenty of mortgage money to borrow.
Apparently, there’s truth in that advertising.
As Keith Gumbinger of HSH Associates, a national mortgage-information firm based in Pompton Plains, observed, “It’s actually not as bad as you might think. The fact of the matter is that mortgage markets are open for business for the vast majority of borrowers.”
True, we have returned to the old days of mortgage lending. You need a credit score of at least 680 to 720. You’d better be prepared to put down a decent amount of cash, probably in the neighborhood of at least 10 percent, and to document that you earn what you say you earn.
“And you have to show that your debt loads are less,” Gumbinger said.
“In the recent past, you might have been allowed to leverage 55 percent of your monthly income for housing costs. Now that number has been whittled down to about 43 percent.”
DL,
Here is the Stryker. An armored vehicle meant to meet the marines need while reducing some of the issues of having traditional armor in urban areas.
http://www.globalsecurity.org/military/systems/ground/iav.htm
Does anybody have details about O’s offshoring policy? I heard that he is going to impose taxes on that, is that correct?
I think Nom mentioned it before, and I agree that we will now see a rash of layoffs while they can still offshore with immunity.
BTW, anybody check out the action on alt-energy stocks? Dropped like a rock! Sell the news?
“Does anybody have details about O’s offshoring policy? I heard that he is going to impose taxes on that, is that correct?”
I thought it was a tax break for creating jobs in the US actually.
Reminds me of the time when, in a West Paterson parking lot snowstorm, i punched the gas on my Ford Explorer, the truck skidded, and slammed into a light post. more annoying than anything. i also had it in 4-wheel drive.
Ford Explorers are a joke.
Maybe you’re the Joke!!! Why would you punch the gas?
From CNBC:
Consumers Shun Luxury Items in October
U.S. consumers slashed spending in October, shunning purchases of items over $1,000, as a global financial crisis battered their savings accounts and their psyches, according to figures released on Wednesday by SpendingPulse, the retail data service of MasterCard Advisors.
“The numbers for October are very negative across the board,” said Michael McNamara, vice president at MasterCard Advisors, of sales figures tracked by SpendingPulse.
“Any area that deals with consumer durables, especially areas like furniture, electronics and appliances … that relies heavily on sales purchases that exceed $1,000 in value are under significant pressure,” he said.
SpendingPulse data is derived from aggregate sales in the MasterCard U.S. payment network, coupled with estimates on all other payments including cash and checks.
…
According to SpendingPulse, October specialty apparel sales fell 12.2 percent from a year earlier. Women’s apparel sales dropped 18.2 percent, while men’s apparel sales fell 8.3 percent. Footwear sales dropped 9.7 percent.
Sales of electronics and appliances tumbled 19.9 percent, compared with a decline of 13.8 percent in September.
“If you take out the purchases above $1,000, the sector is really down about 10 percent,” McNamara said. “Sales above $1,000 just aren’t really moving.”
That trend, along with further weakness in the housing sector, also hurt demand for home-related merchandise. Furniture sales dropped 15.1 percent in October from a year ago, while sales of home furnishings, or decor, fell 20.6 percent.
High-end retailers took a hit, with luxury sales dropping 20.1 percent, compared with a 4.8 percent drop in September.
John (132)-
GS shouldn’t have been so quick.
They’re gonna need tellers for all those drive-thrus.
Somebody’s got to give away all those free toasters.
By the time this is finished, the post office will be more adventurous than banks…
#148 clot: Will a GS ATM card become a status symbol?
John Weinberg must be rolling over in his grave.
3b (149)-
I want a GS account that allows me to do margin transactions from my cell phone & pay my grocery bill at the same time.
3b (149)-
Also, free options activity…unlimited transactions.
…plus Christmas Club.
There are probably prop traders at GS who can’t even tell you what a passbook is.
Who needs 500K a year tellers?
Article makes sense. Stay positive and move foward.
#150 clot: And points, and e-mail alerts for your checcking A/C.
the market finally got the “change we need”.
# make money Says:
November 5th, 2008 at 11:53 am
Reminds me of the time when, in a West Paterson parking lot snowstorm, i punched the gas on my Ford Explorer, the truck skidded, and slammed into a light post. more annoying than anything. i also had it in 4-wheel drive.
Ford Explorers are a joke.
Maybe you’re the Joke!!! Why would you punch the gas?
You know, to drive.
Forbes ..BUY RE NOW !..http://www.forbes.com/home/2008/11/04/intelligent-investing-real-estate-lending-stocks-panel.html
BI:
The market just got a dose of reality from the ADP report. Can’t blame no one but the current administration for that.
market down 300, not that it matters
#162 Stu: Th election is over, now back to the recession.
The market is a piss poor indicator of anything these days…..cept how much your mutual fund sucks.
Early number I am hearing for Friday’s job #’s is 200K.
#147
“High-end retailers took a hit, with luxury sales dropping 20.1 percent, compared with a 4.8 percent drop in September.”
so much for the high end crowd being immune
162#, stu, the market is always forward looking. with potential high capital gain tax, high business tax and futher recession coming, investors and fund managers are nervous. in last week’s barron’s survey, only 30% of the fund managers think O will be better for the market, in sharp contrast with what pack joe’s think.
what was the usual guess at how much a house increases per year during “normal” times?
5%?
BMW had a profit drop of 63%….guess there are limits to the boom.
#168 bi:investors and fund managers are nervous.
But yesterday they were happy.
Yikes,
Inflation adjusted long term ave gains on a house can be close to 0,
C’mon folks, we’ve been around long enough to know that we shouldn’t be speculating on policy based on anything said during campaigning. I’m going to ask you all to hold off on discussing policy until we’ve got something a bit more substantive.
#171 kettle: Agreed. Purchased first house in 1987 sold it 10 years later for $2500 less than I paid for it. minus the improvements too.
“BMW had a profit drop of 63%….guess there are limits to the boom.”
when I was growing up, it seemed like almost nobody drove luxury cars. now they are everywhere. I think the luxury car brands have expanded way beyond the true luxury market.
Bi:
This will be the last of my partisan comments:
The same was said before BC was elected. We all then complained our way to the most prosperous 8 years in our countries history. I’m not saying that BC was responsible for it, but I am saying that it occurred after the same argument was made back then. And, to try to say ‘I told you so’ less than 15 hours after the election was decided and 2 months before the chosen one even makes a single presidential decision is an attest to your Gumpish IQ and your sub-preschool level of patience.
I think all of us here would benefit by reading less of your political manure and more of your inverse investment ideas.
Sorry Grim,
Your post came after I wrote mine. My partisan lips are sealed.
Some speculation from Bloomberg on Cabinet appointments. Happily Corzine’s name does not appear.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=avLP1rN.j8q4&refer=home
I was hoping Corzine would get appointed so the rest of the country could get a taste of his terrible leadership as NJ gets a chance to heal.
Small constitutional law question.
When a senator leaves their seat mid term, the Governor of their home state gets to nominate a successor to finish out the term. This will be the case for O and B1den.
If Ted Stevens wins and decides to step down, could Pal1n appoint herself to the seat?
179 PGC – No. Alaska law requires the governor to call a special election. Nothing would stop her from running though.
Alaska law was recently changed after Sen. Frank Murkowski vacated his Senate seat to become Governor. Gov. Murkowski then searched far and wide in Alaska to find the most qualified appointee and settled on his own daughter, Lisa.
This angered Alaska voters and helped Sarah! to knock him off in the R primary when he ran for reelection.
Alaska politics sure is interesting. They will re-elect for convicted felons (Stevens) and corrupt pols under federal investigation and likely to be indicted (Young), but they draw the line at blatant nepotism, apparently.
And Ted Stevens may not have to step down. It is very likely that the Senate will vote to expel him, since he has been convicted of multiple felonies related to his office.
grim/clot – what are your experiences like about a realtor who LIVES in the neighborhood he is selling a house in?
found a nice house we like in a sweet neighborhood – but two houses slightly larger than the one we want sold in nov/dec 2007 for 585k and 580k.
the house we want is on the market for 584k, and i wrote the realtor saying we’re interested, and we’re thinking it is probably in the 500-515k range.
i assume he’s going to think im crazy, because he wants to keep up the value of his own home. even worth making an offer? the realtor also sells a lot of homes in the neighboring hood, which is quite nice (but slightly out of our range).
albani: check this out!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ftmv6VcTj4A
grim (172)-
That should be, roughly, forever.
HELP!
Need a good recommendation for a business dinner in Manhattan: business casual; goes on a corporate expense account; so upscale, but not off-the-scale; no French.
My playbook is 12 months stale……
Stu (178)-
Sadly, it looks as though we can’t offload this dork on anyone.
#171 kettle: Agreed. Purchased first house in 1987 sold it 10 years later for $2500 less than I paid for it. minus the improvements too.
3B,
You’re a living example of a bag holder. I see why you’re so upset and grouchy all the time. You buy high and sell low and then watch the biggest bubble in American history happen to the very asset you dumped.
It’s eqivalent of someone selling gold today!
PGC (179)-
“If Ted Stevens wins and decides to step down, could Pal1n appoint herself to the seat?”
She could, but I hear she’s up for Vanna’s spot on Wheel Of Fortune.
yikes (182)-
Gonna do everything he can to keep the neighborhood values pumped.
Last thing a guy like that wants are the neighbors blaming him for crashing the local values.
That’s a career-killer for an agent who bases his biz on his immediate neighborhood.
185…Asia De Cuba…..(check my spelling — awesome)
#185 – AJ Maxwells ?
Essex Says:
November 5th, 2008 at 1:54 pm
185…Asia De Cuba…..(check my spelling — awesome)
Still, ok good….that is an alluring choice…you never know with a place like that when it might jump the shark
more anyone?
I was at Asia de Cuba a few weeks back, they’ve got a good coconut cake desert.
Was recently at Brandy Library too, nice spot for rare spirits.
I am going to add the Tabla’s Bread Bar in my own mind….
I am going to add the Tabla’s Bread Bar in my own mind….
re: #185 Chicagofinance – I have always liked BLT Prime on E 22nd Street. Lots of elbow room and awesome range of steaks and a serious wine list.
http://www.bltprime.com/
Could someone please check MLS Number: 2596367 for me. If my memory is correct it was on the market untill about a month ago for 265K, and it seems that it is back on the market at 300K?????
#185
http://www.townnyc.com/town.html
AdC jumped the shark a long time ago, I only go because its next door to the motherland (aka the Polska Embassy).
#185
http://www.mandarinoriental.com/newyork/dining/asiate/default.aspx
I also like Mario Batali’s place Otto in the Vilalge for Italian, it is business casual and a killer wine list as well.
ChiFi,
Great Video. You’ll see many of those when USD fails, Gold goes up Tenfould and I run for President of Albania.
Why not support the Albani communitty? try Nino’s, Tratoria Alba, Russian Tea Room, Boat House,
Grim, RE West Paterson’s name change.
I am from West Paterson, and you can ascribe the name change passage to both reasons that you offer.
Classism – From time to time the name change has been justified by the notion that RE values would be more if the town’s name didn’t have Paterson in it; which brings us to your second reason:
Racism – Considering the number (and ethnicity and race) of people who have their roots in the City of Paterson and now live West Paterson, (and also Totowa, Little Falls, Wayne, etc, etc…) and the composition of the population Paterson now (both real composition and perceived composition)and the challenges the City faces (like any other city I might add, and quite a few small towns too, although those challenges take different forms) it is difficult not to come to a conclusion that
race and ethnic considerations and perceptions had an impact on the decision of a number of those who voted in favor of the name change. They might cite reason number one but the second reason most likely underlies the first.
As for RE values being raised by the name change, I think the latest rise in values put to rest the notion that the name was an impediment to rising RE values.
Changing the name to Woodland Park, Lower Ridgewood, South Upper Saddle River, or whatever name we can concoct will not insulate our middling town from the inevitable decline of RE values.
PS – I hear anecdotally that much of the support for the name change came from our new residents in the Hovnanian development in the former quarry.
Although I live in West Paterson now my roots are in Paterson. I am proud of my affiliation to the great city of Paterson and am deeply disappointed and frustrated about the out come of the name change ballot question.
Sean (203)-
Otto is great, but it’s also louder than a Rangers game.
PS – I hear anecdotally that much of the support for the name change came from our new residents in the Hovnanian development in the former quarry.
Ahh, now it makes sense.
If he dinner date is Hot do BED. If not Papaya King, or if a man Lary Flint’s place.
Actually Dylan’s Prime is pretty good.
197 Chifi – Upstairs at Tabla is nice if on an expense account.
I also like:
Tao
Bar Americain
Grammercy Tavern
Eleven Madison Park
Craft
Union Square Cafe
Blue Hill is great, but only open for dinner I think.
On the topic of the Fed and RE,
Thomas Jefferson said, “If the America people ever allow private banks to control the issuance of their currencies, first by inflation and then by deflation, the banks and corporations that will grow up around them will deprive the people of all their prosperity until their children will wake up homeless on the continent their fathers conquered.”
my man TJ predicted this day to come
Sorry for 183 grim. I forgot.
Downtown four seasons for a receptive female client with drinks at sunset watching lady liberty on the upstairs bar or up top on a good meatpacking hotel, or anyplace with large drinks and unisex.
For guys, steaks in a bar with a happy hour crowd. Get a table near the bar and lay the black card out and invite the “talent” from the bar to join you now and then before you take them home in your Maybach.
Who am I kidding, Grey Papayas Recession buster special is what I would do.
#188 make money: Ah no. I said my first house. I made a fortune on the second. The guy who bought the second is the bagholder.
209 Gator
Gramercy Tavern is my fav.
I might also suggest Kraft Bar.
I guess that makes me a Tom Collichio (sp?) groupie.
paterson….
its a class issue at core not race.
Poor neighborhoods of any race whether mixed or not tend to be shunned and walled off even if only figuratively.
One can name West Paterson whatever name they choose, but one cannot change the location of the town. When a prospective buyer looks at the map to determine how to get to an open house in Woodland Park, that buyer is still going to see that Woodland Park still borders Paterson.
Would have been a much better idea to try to rename Paterson ;)
RE: 197 Chifi
The Kid recommends Bobby Flay’s Mesa Grill or BLT Market. Both favs of The Kid.
OT alert:
I seem to recall Schabadoo taking me to task (and calling me a racist, if memory serves) for opining exactly what this economist did (in the MSM no less):
“Mark Vitner, senior economist with Wachovia, . . . also is worried that employers will pull back on hiring even more if they sense that an O[-]bama administration will make it easier for unions to organize non-union companies.”
I guess this senior economist and I are both part of the tin foil hat crowd.
Sorry grim, just had to serve that up. Now, off to click that paypal link for you.
Mesa Grill? Are you kidding? I’d rather have Taco Bell.
hov,, is also trying to sell the quarry
over 55 as in Little Falls,,,
Clot:
I was completely and utterly unimpressed by the Mesa Grill as well. This has nothing to do with my low opinion of Mr. Flay.
[182] 3b
Not happy about Goolsbee or Furman. Junk scientists IMO. Others are folks with gravitas.
Dealbreaker has been quite a-buzz today with GS layoffs. The rumors are of heavy cuts in structured credit, proprietary trading and lev. finance.
I know it was discussed earlier but has anyone seen or heard any confirmation?
Chi (185) – Gotham Bar and Grill 12 East 12th Street. http://www.gothambarandgrill.com/index.php
Clot:
Can we agree that we’d rather be at Corner Bistro?
I think many of us agree on our feelings about Bobby Flay.
The rumors are of heavy cuts in structured credit, proprietary trading and lev. finance.
GS behind the curve here. Revenue in this area has dried up significantly.
Cent’anni on Carmine St. is often overlooked. IMO, the best Italian restaurant in NYC, outside Batali.
More traditional, not as flamboyant as Mario’s stuff…but about as close to dining in Milan or Turin as you can get.
I hate Flay. He can take that lisp and shove it.
kid (225)-
That’s more like it.
[126] Kettle,
sorry to hear it. So true about Boston, though I was also happy with Penn. Hospital and ChoP for little Nom.
Hope little kettle is fine and happy, and no lasting effects to interfere with his tank-driving in the future.
When selecting an attorney, be just as judicious as with a doctor. There are a lot of bad ambulance chasers out there and they are even harder to spot. If you decide to go that route, I will cast about for the best names.
Warren Buffett has been sounding the alarm about the issue for years. Recently, he told PBS interviewer Charlie Rose: “All I can say is, beware of geeks…bearing formulas.”
Babbo is the Bomba if you want Italian food.
Bobby Flay is always good for 10 posts here, all professing utter hatred.
How does this guy keep all those restaurants open? Nobody likes him.
Scratch Cent’anni. Out of business.
Is it news that Fuld is quitting?
Ray (236)-
How can they tell?
How does this guy keep all those restaurants open? Nobody likes him.
Same sheeple with $300 jeans and big SUV’s that got us in this RE mess to begin with.
It always comes back to the designer jeans and SUV crowd.
Let’s just round ’em up and quarantine ’em in New Mexico.
Wag Says:
November 5th, 2008 at 3:01 pm
Chi (185) – Gotham Bar and Grill 12 East 12th Street.
WAG: I will always have a crush on this place, but I think the problem is that while it is comforting for my wife and me (and somewhat nostalgic), it is an anachronism from 20 years ago. I personally don’t care, but these guys are bio-tech from Boston and SD, so I think it wouldn’t have the necessary charge. That said, I would go there in a split second.
Not happy about Goolsbee
Chi, any comments on Gools? We did hear him speak a year or so ago (more likely two). I’ve read his NYT pieces and he just didn’t feel like the same guy in print.
239 Clot – I vote Georgia for the exile land. They were colonized to be a penal colony to house the undesirables, after all.
Clotpoll (237)
Hopefully because he can’t receive wages while in a Federal prison.
Clotpoll Says:
November 5th, 2008 at 3:09 pm
Scratch Cent’anni. Out of business.
clot: this is the kind of stuff I’m afraid of…..there are going to be places nuked left and right……still, I guarantee that service is going to be FIRST CLASS. The are going to give you hot towels to wipe your posterior in the bathroom, as well as under-the-table service.
Call me a new age tree hugger, but I thought this is important.
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB122584367114799137.html
I imagine the world to be a much different place if Gore was in office. We’d probably still would have had 9/11 and the lending crisis would probably not be as bad, since Bush administration pushed for more homeownership.
grim Says:
November 5th, 2008 at 3:18 pm
Chi, any comments on Gools? We did hear him speak a year or so ago (more likely two). I’ve read his NYT pieces and he just didn’t feel like the same guy in print.
Got the invite to the 2009 Business Forecast lunch, but this time only two speakers and one of them was Mussa. I don’t know if you recall, but he sounded like “an economist”. I remember needing to drink my coffee, your coffee, and that hedge-fund guy that called himself “the Warren Buffett of India”‘s coffee in the 10 minutes that Mussa spoke.
My impression is that O-man told him to STFU while the campaign was in motion. Now that it is over, I think he will return to the circuit.
Stu Says:
November 5th, 2008 at 2:58 pm
Clot: I was completely and utterly unimpressed by the Mesa Grill as well. This has nothing to do with my low opinion of Mr. Flay.
Stu: I haven’t been there since 2002-2003, but I recall thinking the same thing. I would only use it as a convenient bar if I was chain store shopping on lower 5th Avenue.
cont on 245.
Also have to say lack of regulation over markets pushed by Republicans who think the market will self-regulate. The market will only seek to maximize profits.
Nom,
Thanks for the thoughts. Little kettle is fine now and happily practicing large scale havoc….
will shoot you an e-mail if i decide to go that route.
Bobby Flay & Jeffrey Chodorow too bad you can’t short them.
Chi,
I played it right for once ;)
kettle1,
Saw your post about issues with docs and the little one. All I can say is there is no bigger advocate for you and your family than yourself. While doctors provide you with an expert opinion, they can also be wrong. There is only so much they can tell from spending a few minutes with you unless there is absolute certainty from a diagnosis. Even than they can be wrong. I have experienced this first hand.
#245 – Dirtly little secret from the Gore camp of treehuggers INC, is that they are wheeling and dealing for about 30 new nuke plants over the next few years. Sure we will get a token windmill and a few solar plants but my money is on dozens of 1600 MW Nuke Plants in a neighborhood near you.
[245] hard,
Gotta take issue with that. There has been a lot of shabby journalism around this issue(shabbier than usual, actually).
Gore was point man on housing for BC, and HUD and the bank regulators (and ACORN, Greenlining, NCRC, etc.) were pushing the banks to lend just as hard before 2001 as they were after. From my vantage point overlooking the Mall during that period, there was little difference in the BC-W approaches to housing. When we did deals, we had to include commitments to make millions in low-income housing.
In fact, it was during W that the drumbeat to replace OFHEO and curb the GSEs was starting, and it was not being pushed by the left.
The only thing that the left was pushing (before 2001 and after) was to put the poor in houses at better terms than subprime. They did not object to the lending, just the tems. It’s like a crack addict blaming the dealers for their addiction because crack wasn’t cheap enough.
About the only part of this story that hasn’t been distorted was that regulators were aware of the risk starting to rise and did little except jawbone the banks, whereupon a suit from a big DC law firm (supported by an associate like me) would convince the regulator that everything was happy, happy, joy, joy.
I could go on, but that is privileged. Suffice it to say, I think that the media and the left got away with an amazing case of revisionist history on this topic.
interesting thoughts from Greenwich, CT. More evidence that the high end is not immune:
“Lunch with three close friends, actually, two of whom are real estate lawyers I labored in the trenches with back in our last bad market in the early 1990s. Their take? Things are simply awful, and much worse than they were back then (of course, we were all younger then, and optimism was easier to come by). “It’s as though everything just froze overnight,” one said. “Nothing is happening.”
“I asked how many high-end properties were purchased with high-end mortgages and they agreed that, while a lot of buyers in the past years simply took out the $1.1 million in mortgage money that is deductible, there were plenty of buyers who were stretching to the limit to get the house they wanted. These two lawyers, by the way, are involved in probably 25% or more of the real estate transactions in town, so their view is a good one. Their prediction, one I agree with, is that nothing significant will happen in the market until January. But then a lot of people who have been trying to hold out are going to give up and put their homes up for sale. When they do they’ll price them to sell which will finally break the logjam that now exists, with realistic buyers butting heads with steadfast sellers.
“If this prediction bears out, existing sellers are going to have a lot of competition and those competitors will be setting a new, much lower level for pricing. And if that happens, you out there who have been refusing to come down to a price that will move your house are screwed – the market will just pass you by and go to the new, lower-priced inventory.”
http://www.greenwichrealestate.blogspot.com/
hard place,
Yep, its all about self advocacy, but some doctors do not like being questioned ( note there are many talented and caring Dr’s but every profession has a few bad apples).
We have since remedied the situation
_______________________________________
Sean,
I would actually argue that nuke has the potential to be cleaner then coal. if you account for all serious external costs.
The challenge with nukes is implementation. Corporate SOP’s and Nuke dont readily mix.
HEHEHE Says:
November 5th, 2008 at 3:40 pm
Chi, I played it right for once ;)
That you did manolo…….don’t be greedy as they say….but there can be no real guidance as to where this may go……
Sean,
Guess that’s why I feel aligned to Gore’s camp. I’m not opposed to nuclear energy. With appropriate safeguards, it’s a viable alternative. We should explore all options to get us off of the oil addiction.
Chi(257)-
“but there can be no real guidance as to where this may go……”
– Well, Dubya said – “This sucker is going down” :)
Apologies if this has been posted already.
http://www.foxbusiness.com/story/markets/industries/government/home-builders-second-stimulus-address-housing-problems/
Home Builders Call For Second Stimulus to Address Housing Problems
The day after Sen. Barack Obama’s victory in the presidential election, the National Association of Home Builders is calling on him and the next Congress to adopt a new $268 billion housing stimulus plan called Fix Housing First, FOX Business has learned.
The NAHB plan calls for a 10% tax credit for every home buyer in 2009, capped at $20,000 per primary residence. A current credit of up to $7,500 for only first time homebuyers hasn’t helped the housing market that much, the home builders said, and expires June 2009. The new tax credit would cost $125 billion.
The plan would also create government interest rate subsidies on mortgages — all families buying a home in 2009 would pay just 3% for the first six months of 2009, rising to 4% for the last half of 2009, on so-called conforming loans that can be acquired or insured by government housing agencies. At the end of 2009, rates would adjust up to current market rates on mortgages. The interest rate subsidy would cost $143 billion.
I love Nukes, they rock. When I was in Cub Scouts took the tour of Indian Point and it was cool, troop leade worked for coned, they even gave us a book and a record that you could play that showed how clean and safe Nuke power is. I say lets buy up an unsold foreclosed 20 acre greenwich estate and put a big nuke plant on it.
Com Nom,
Interesting perspective. Agree that BC did have some hand in the RE, with the 250k cap gain treatment, as well. I think this was a major impetus to all the buying/selling that occurred. Maybe better to not point fingers directly, but it did spiral out of control under GW’s watch. Overall, I’m all for capitalism, but with better government oversight.
stu/clot, when i said it during the day, you think it is too political. now it is in yahoo news:
Stocks fall as investors ponder Omama presidency
http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/081105/wall_street.html
More off topic:
The new 2009 U.S. News Law School Tax Rankings were released today:
1. NYU (#1 last year)
BOOYA!!!
[260] John,
Hear, hear. I have a funny story from inside the containment building at VT Yankee, but it will have to wait for a GTG. Besides, it isn’t nearly sexy enough to be a “John” story.
Nom – When GTG?
Grim – Some disappointing reviews of Halcyon from a coworker who’s tastes I trust:
Our experience was not quite the same, and the prices are honestly outrageously high. Richard and I had drinks and oysters and spent just under $100, and it was not a $100 evening. It is a lovely restaurant, though.
As I recall, that was for one dozen oysters, two cocktails and one glass of wine all told. And the oysters were not shucked well. And, to be honest, I was a bit disappointed by the décor; it was more Atlantic City than Montclair to me. I don’t mean to say it was a bad experience, but I was underwhelmed.
Grim – 266 im moderation. Negative review of Halcyon.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Neuro-linguistic_programming
omg……look what has been happening with this technology…..the machine uses this stuff and we don’t even know…at least most of us don’t
Jojo
I pointed that out the other day in an argumnet.
Google derren brown and look at some of his video’s.
New a guy in college who was good at that stuff. Was great for getting dates with hot chicks……
All Hype,
I read your answers from yesterday and you’re a damn dyed in the wool liberal. You failed the test, just as I suspected you would.
#242 Gee, Gator, wasn’t it enough that y’all whupped them Dawgs????
kettle—i have gotten good at it…..haha it is amazing…its taken me a while but i got my own dad a right winger to call for a revolution…haha…calm….direct….leading…eye contact…all play into it…with a nice dose of wordplay
kettle—hitler used it…but it can make u insane if u go too far with it…controlling it is hard
jojo 272
ummmm…….. i think that line of conversation just jumped the shark
reinvestor101 Says:
November 5th, 2008 at 4:45 pm
All Hype,
I read your answers from yesterday and you’re a damn dyed in the wool liberal. You failed the test, just as I suspected you would.
________________________________________________
I failed, give me a break. My religion is as conservative as it gets. My stance on crime cannot be any stronger in this liberal-controlled state. Just because I think the current president is as smart as a tulip bulb does not make me a liberal. Patriotic, not stupid.
I am just as conservative as you. We are equals!
http://calculatedrisk.blogspot.com/2008/11/shiller-worst-times-ahead.html
Case Schiller says more pain and a longer then expected recession
haha :)too many know about it now tho
i’ll c ya all around…and around
skep (255)-
Just substitute “Hunterdon and Somerset Co.” where necessary, and you have my early ’09 take on this area.
The holdout sellers are about to get their heads lopped off.
it’s alive and well……
Don’t worry boys, now that O’s the president, he will appoint PDIDDY as treasury secretary.
WE’RE ALL GONNA BE BLINGING!!!
SKF is on Stereoids today. Clot you still own this?
Roubini: Next Stop On Global Train Wreck Is China
Nouriel Roubini has been quiet for a few days, but you didn’t think he was getting bullish, did you? Of course not. In fact, now that a global systemic financial crisis appears to have been narrowly averted, he has turned his attention to the next land mine: China. China, says Nouriel, is at risk of a hard landing (which, for China, would mean a slowdown of growth to 5%-6%). The cause? The US consumer, of course. That recent uplift in global stock prices? A “sucker’s rally.” The recent economic news in the US? “Worse than awful.” Read on…
http://www.clusterstock.com/2008/11/roubini-next-stop-on-global-train-wreck-is-china
make (281)-
That and SRS. Averaged down every day of the sucker rally.
See the Kimco and GGP numbers today? There’s a preview of where RE is headed. All the commercial RE garbage is igniting a negative feedback loop thru the banks, pensions and insurance companies that have financed this especially rancid round of buildouts that have no chance of drawing occupants other than birds and rats.
From my old AT&T contacts…….kind of a running commentary on the state of NJ…..
“Golden Boy” — the dazzling, larger-than-life statue originally placed atop AT&T headquarters in New York City in 1916 — soon will move from its latest home in Bedminster, N.J., to our new corporate headquarters in Dallas. Officially known as “Spirit of Communication,” Golden Boy is deeply embedded in our company’s heritage, and deserves the highest place of honor in the corporate headquarters of the company it symbolizes. Check out this slideshow of Golden Boy through the years.
Just heard O might pick NYC schools chancellor Joel Klein for Secretary of Education. If this happens, you can forget your kids learning anything that is not related to standardized tests. If you hate the education system now, just wait.
lost (285)-
If they tried to put every kid in America on Ritalin and Skinner Box them, it wouldn’t surprise me.
271 Outofstater – This is the SEC. There’s no mercy. Mercy is for pansies who play in the Big East.
A penal colony would be an improvement for the state of Ga.
286 Clot
That wouldn’t surprise me either. As it seems there is a move to do away with special ed. The Ritalin would take care of the emotional issues. I don’t know of a magic pill that will bring their academics up to grade level though.
Stu, et al.
How about Monday Night for a GTG in Brigadoon? I am not trying to pander to anyone in particular, but this Friday got no love.
Show of hands????
The Dark Side of Global Credit System Redesign
What lies ahead for American taxpayers was driven home by the recent $700 billion bank bailout and at least partially revealed in an April 9, 2008 article in the Wall Street Journal: “The Federal Reserve is considering contingency plans for expanding its lending power in the event its recent steps to unfreeze credit markets fail… Among the options: Having the Treasury borrow more money than it needs to fund the government and leave the proceeds on deposit at the Fed … The internal discussions are part of a continuing effort at the Fed, similar to what is under way at foreign central banks, to determine its options if the credit crunch becomes even more severe.”7
Perhaps it was these “internal discussions” which led Pimco director Bill Gross, aka the Warren Buffet of the bond world, to remark last year that “What we are witnessing is essentially the breakdown of our modern-day banking system, a complex of leveraged lending so hard to understand that Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke required a face-to-face refresher course from hedge fund managers in mid-August [2007].” In essence says Gross we are operating in large part under a “shadow banking system” which uses derivatives as a new method of creating money outside the hitherto standard liquidity rules of central banking operations.
everyone is hung up on the details….
it goes so much deeper than the level you guys are looking….ure on the surface
linear thought will not work or you’ll never see it
290 Nom – Monday night is Lil Gator’s night at The Little Gym. I could free Stu up to attend a GTG, but I would need to stay back home.
There is potential though that they might not have any classes on Thanksgiving week, which would free both of us up. I’ll check into that if Mon is the group’s consensus.
Swiss Finance Guru sees bankruptcy for the U.S
Swiss financial guru Marc Faber tells swissinfo he sees hard times ahead for the world’s stock exchanges and even state bankruptcy for the United States.
He also believes that stock exchanges will stay at low levels for a long time.
M.F.: In the past few years everything went up – shares, commodities, consumer goods, real estate values, art and even bonds. Such a combination is extremely unusual. We saw the biggest investment bubble in the history of humanity. The current situation is possibly worse than the global economic crisis of 1929. And that is thanks to Alan Greenspan and Ben Bernanke [the former and current US Federal Reserve Board chairmen]. These two gentlemen must account for massive errors.
swissinfo: Governments are offering guarantees and are pumping thousands of billions into the markets. Is that a mistake?
M.F.: Yes. The losses are there and someone has to bear them. There are two possibilities. Banks go under and the stakeholders are left with nothing, as is the case with Lehman Brothers, or governments pump money into the financial system so that the incompetent financial clowns in Bahnhofstrasse [Zurich’s financial centre] and Wall Street can continue to eat in fancy restaurants.
I am clearly in favour of the first because the consequences of these state interventions are massive budget deficits. To finance these, governments have to acquire money. For that they have to borrow money, which makes state debt and interest payments soar. US economists have come to the conclusion from the trends that there will be a US state bankruptcy.
“How about Monday Night for a GTG in Brigadoon?”
can’t make a Mon night, that is my boxing night.
SAS
i see dead people…..
“i see dead people”
hugh? where?
SAS
lost (288)-
“I don’t know of a magic pill that will bring their academics up to grade level though.”
That’s easy. Just bring the academic standard down to idiot level.
clott 299
what , you mean we aren’t already there, when teachers are not allowed to mark up papers with red ink because of negative connotations or perhaps teachers that are not allowed to fail a student because it might hurt their self esteem or motivation?
—————-
SAS
we are all dead people if you just wait long enough. Life, 100% lethal
about public schools:
there is intentional deliberate dumbing down of children. The powers that be want to train then to not think too much, and too not be independent, creative, and inquisitory.
Instead, its better to have dumb fat kids, that are caught up in taking a stupid test, and competing for the so called “good schools”.
This way they are control, and you just learn to do one trait, and become another link in the chain.
If you want whats best for your kids, get them the hell out of any public school.
SAS
and don’t give me this Blue ribbin school BS.
thats a ploy, to fool you to make you think your something slick, but you ain’t, your a gullable sap.
SAS
Feast your eyes, I’m the only one
Control me, console me
cause that’s just how it should be done
oh, all your history’s like fire from a busted gun
now show some love and respect
don’t wanna get a life of regret
sas (301)-
Alas, if had had another 100k laying around, I’d get ’em out.
If the Dow gets driven down to around 6K, I can probably yank the youngest & get him off to a real school.
sas
“there is intentional deliberate dumbing down of children.”
I hear you. But there is only so much dumbing down when you consider that almost all kids are expected to go to college now. Or are you saying the colleges have dumbed down too?
That reminds me, back in the day, think it was in like 2002, I tutored arithmetic for mexican kids out of the goodness of my heart.
(well, not really, I had some community service hours, and I pissed off too many people in DC at the time to bail me out)
anyhow…
what I learn was, the poor mexican kids, with a little attention, respect, and ability to think for themselves outscored and did better than the white kids in the rich schools.
They made that data set hush hush real quick. Like the school administrator told me at the time when I told them out well these kids can do, he told me:
“we can’t let these parents know that these wetback’s kids score better”
not my words, but his. True story.
SAS
they are not dumbing them down…they are teaching them correctly…well only how they were taught
“The holdout sellers are about to get their heads lopped off.”
The Red Queen approach to RE?
Jojo
Some teachers suck and some don’t. This has always been and unfortunately, will probably always be. But there are a lot more restrictions put on what and how kids are taught these days. It affects even the good teachers.
how can someone teach if they themselves were never taught how to think outside of a linear mindset???
Wed in Philly?
lost,
You say tht like it is a bad thing ;)
I should really name..names on this website about that experience.
you will poop the pants. I still have the data set in pdf format.
I’m sure legally I can’t do it.
maybe wiki leaks?
SAS
has anyone ever found it odd how hellen keller who could not see nor hear…was able to communicate in such an eloquent fashion, by never hearing a sound or seeing a blackboard?
Not all teachers were taught the same way.
I am now off to belly dance class. No Clot, I’m not trying to bait you either.
the bottom line is and i will leave now…we cannot continue to think in the way in which we were taught…a difficult concept for most people to get past in the first place…once the hurdle is jumped….its pure energy
“we cannot continue to think in the way in which we were taught…a difficult concept for most people to get past in the first place…once the hurdle is jumped….its pure energy”
I agree bloke.
that why I never regretted a day in my life when I got drunk, stoned, had a one night stand, and said with a beautiful women over the sunset in Latin America.
Never said I was a role model, but god damn I’ve had a good life:)
SAS
For those hoping to get rid of King Jon, don’t hold your breath:
http://www.reuters.com/article/vcCandidateFeed7/idUSN0550209820081105
snip
New Jersey Democratic Gov. Jon Corzine, whose name has also been floated for the Treasury post, told CNBC on Wednesday he had not discussed joining the O administration with anybody, though he added he would never rule anything out.
snip
opps, should read:
“sailed with a beautiful women over the sunset in Latin America”
spent sometime in Brazil & Columbia in my early 30’s.
man, talk about an education.
wow!
SAS
well, I gotta help Juanita in the kitchen with the dishes.
cheerio
SAS
to the gold bugs…what do you think of the index vs. the physical?
thanks
commrade corzine will pay cash money to get
the gig..
besides,, odds are he would have a hard time
keeping the current gig.
kettle and sassy, my heart goes out to you.
Happy Birthday, sl. I really hope you had a great day.
[305]
Colleges have dumbed down too. I cannot believe the crap I see from people that attended reasonably decent schools. The top tiers still produce top tier grads, but even there, some skills are decidedly lacking.
And what pisses me off is that the grades are better.
FWIW, I was against moving to a BR town for schools if I was gonna pay through the nose for it. I eventually did because the differential versus an average NJ town was not worth it. But my concept is to use the public schools and supplement. Little nom takes language classes b/c they aren’t offered in K-3, and we have to keep the exposure to foreign language up. She and her eventual sibling will also have supplemental activity, though not necessarily Sylvan or Huntington, but maybe them when the time comes. Best part is that I can get part of it paid for with tax savings.
“kettle and sassy, my heart goes out to you”
hugh? what say you?
SAS
i miss NY terribly … but wow, looks like we got out just in time.
http://wcbstv.com/local/michael.bloomberg.income.2.856839.html
it’s getting ugly … 1000 less cops, but they’re hiring more “traffic agents” to hand out tickets?
colleges are definitely being dumbed down.
A friend of mine is the dean of engineering at a big northeast engineering college. The crap he deals with and the BS the admin pushes down on him are ridiculous. If i see/hear this crap about engineers in a well known college, a group as a whole that has well above average thinking and analytical skills then i am terrified to see what goes on in other fields….
———————–
SAS JoJo
linear thinking is one of the biggest issues
The greatest shortcoming of the human race is our inability to understand the exponential function
-Albert bartlet
SAS
whats the question?
# sas Says:
November 5th, 2008 at 8:00 pm
“kettle and sassy, my heart goes out to you”
hugh? what say you?
SAS
“to the gold bugs…what do you think of the index vs. the physical?
thanks”
as for me, I want gold in my hot little hands. I do a little midnight gardening too.
personally, I’m really fond of silver right now.
Silver, poor man’s gold.
SAS
Nom,
what are the general legal implications of the NJ gun permit lat that requires issuance or denial within 30 days, when the law is regularly ignored?
There was a recent appeals case where an NJ police chief challenged a suit over a gun permit and won based on him saying he cant make decision without the info he wants (prints references etc)
“linear thinking is one of the biggest issues”
I use to have lunch with an author who wrote & talked such a topic. I can’t remember for the life of me his name right now.
SAS
SAS,
the entire premise of modern economics ignores the concept of an exponential function. continuous YOY growth is exponential growth and is unsustainable and self destructive in the long term
“whats the question?”
some one posted that their heart goes out to me… I didn’t understand what that post meant.
last time someone’s heart went out to me was when I got drunk at the craps table, and then took some 25 year old skirt cutie through the drive thru marriages in Vegas.
yikes
SAS
http://www.latimes.com/news/science/la-fi-geothermal3-2008nov03,0,7002141.story?track=rss
So is geothermal viable Kettle?
Cindy
in short,yes
will we replace oil with it? no
But it is a very good step in the right direction
cindy,
depending on how they implement the geothermal, it is possible for it to cause small earthquakes.
Not necessarily a big deal, the EGS tech talked about in the article has caused a few small earthquakes in pilot plants in eurpoe. No reason not to use it though.
the steam and water pumped into the fractured rock acts as a lubricant and can allow deep rocks under stress to slip in the same way that an earthquake moves. The effect is small though and non-destructive from what was seen in europe.
(336)Kettle – It looks like some dudes with money are getting behind it.
A 2006 report by MIT, that took into account the use of Enhanced Geothermal Systems (EGS), concluded that it would be affordable to generate 100 GWe (gigawatts of electricity) or more by 2050 in the United States alone, for a maximum investment of 1 billion US dollars in research and development over 15 years.[9]
The MIT report calculated the world’s total EGS resources to be over 13,000 ZJ. Of these, over 200 ZJ would be extractable, with the potential to increase this to over 2,000 ZJ with technology improvements – sufficient to provide all the world’s present energy needs for several millennia.[9]
The key characteristic of an EGS (also called a Hot Dry Rock system), is that it reaches at least 10 km down into hard rock. At a typical site two holes would be bored and the deep rock between them fractured. Water would be pumped down one and steam would come up the other. The MIT report estimated that there was enough energy in hard rocks 10 km below the United States to supply all the world’s current needs for 30,000 years.[9]
Drilling at this depth is now possible in the petroleum industry, albeit expensive. (Exxon announced an 11 km hole at the Chayvo field, Sakhalin. Lloyds List 1/5/07 p 6) Wells drilled to depths greater than 4001 metres generally incur drilling costs in the tens of millions of dollars. The technological challenges are to drill wide bores at low cost and to break rock over larger volumes. Apart from the energy used to make the bores, the process releases no greenhouse gases.
#302 sas: and don’t give me this Blue ribbin school BS.
I have been saying that for quite some time now.
the us has the potential for substantial geothermal resources
http://www1.eere.energy.gov/geothermal/geomap.html
sas…see sassy #140
Maybe Cindy has some comments about education. I went through that whole ADD ADHD accusation thing with my son…what a bunch of bunk. The kindergarden teacher finally had me in knots so I took him to the pediatrician and she basically laughed at me…in this case I was in private and yanked him into the public school.
“sas…see sassy #140”
I see. I don’t always read the whole thread.
SAS
“the us has the potential for substantial geothermal resources”
Add to that the power generating possibility of tapping the hot air generated during a typical congressional subcommittee hearing and the possibilities are endless
Sassy 140,
just saw your post. Thanks for the offer. Fortunately my little bundle of havoc seems to have come through the ordeal more or less ok.
I do not want money, the thought is more that there should be repercussions for the BS that went down and was obvious to everyone except the pediatrician.
lost (305)-
Most assuredly. Relatively speaking, colleges have dumbed down more than secondary schools.
I have two very good friends who are longtime college professors, mostly upper-level courses. They tell me that every year brings more and more students with below-rudimentary basic skills (study, note-taking, ability to grasp themes & concepts).
Lindsey Williams is getting closer and closer:
Light Crude (NYM)
December 08 ($US per bbl.) 65.30
SAS
Has anyone up north, near Montclair gone to Cuban Pete’s? Going to have dinner there sometime soon.
“They tell me that every year brings more and more students with below-rudimentary basic skills (study, note-taking, ability to grasp themes & concepts).”
But I bet they bring far better video-game-playing skills thn the students of 30 years ago; known as the Pong Generation, for their lack of skills with a remote.
sas (330)-
Silver. When gold booms, silver goes parabolic.
When things run right, silver is like smoking wet.
clott,
the dean i know has said that the stated policy is to activly increase enrollment as much as possible.
Basically it is a pure money making decision. more students = more money. The quality of education is irrelevant.
silver is like smoking wet.
?????????????????????
sas (334)-
“…last time someone’s heart went out to me was when I got drunk at the craps table, and then took some 25 year old skirt cutie through the drive thru marriages in Vegas.”
Did the cutie turn out to be a bloke? :)
Kettle,
The free market as its best. Well, second best to the mortgage industry, anyway.
*hug* happy birthday, sl!
shore.
The classes have basically been over enrolled for the last 5 years and any professor who complains is at risk of losing their job or being sidelined
Kettle,
Or replaced with an adjunct.
vodka (353)-
Smoking wet:
http://tinyurl.com/628j8o
“Did the cutie turn out to be a bloke?”
lol. nope. It was the real deal.
I had a blast that night, till I woke up, looked at my credit card charges, and tried to think of some BS story to tell my wife.
:)
SAS
clott
ahh never heard that term for it before
The things one learns on a RE blog, of all places.
shore (350)-
Kinder, gentler machine gun hand.
“smoking wet”
there was one time, we were out on the Cam Lo, in desperate need of a smoke of anykind.
so, I bought a roll of something from this old villager, come to find out it was human remains…
talk about vodoo.
then again, may have been a good luck charm, cause I made it out alive.
SAS
clott,
anyone who knowingly “smokes wet” is absolutely insane/suicidal.
sas (360)-
Yeah. I guess the bigamy thing was probably a little tricky, too.
vodka (365)-
No doubt. I think your chances are better with PCP.
House Hunter Says:
November 5th, 2008 at 8:48 pm
Has anyone up north, near Montclair gone to Cuban Pete’s? Going to have dinner there sometime soon.
____________________________________________
Great place, BYOB, they make an awesome sangria.
(343) House – I feel education is at a crossroads.
There are two major problems – from my perspective. Remember – this is for a growing population of students – not your kid or the kid of someone you know – but many of the new students I am working with.
1. Students are so involved with TV/Computer games that they rarely interact with others, carry on coherent conversations or read. They don’t share, lead troubled lives, and come to us not knowing the meaning of the word “no.”
We are talking about isolated children who rarely play outside, are disrepectful, and cannot focus on the task at hand.
2. NCLB – totally focuses on test scores – so – districts focus on test scores. If you do not meet the standards, your school can lose control. Oddly enough, the funding for low-performing schools
comes off of the top of the budget (they get more money) so better performing schools aren’t even being rewarded for doing a good job.
Remember the analogy section of the SAT? Well, that doesn’t even exist anymore. (We still do daily language that has a few examples and some critical thinking exercises.) Most districts now use scripted curriculum. Anyone could be standing in the front of the room. It is getting way out of hand. I have friends who left the profession for that very reason.
So – the crossroads part….Let the teachers teach (I am lucky – my district let’s me do my job.) AND we have to deal with a growing number of troubled children who are no being parented. I refer to them as environmentally handicapped.”
349.
Yes, try the crispy pork appetizer.
Very good food.
no being parented – must be NOT being parented….
“environmentally disabled”
http://www.fresnobee.com/local/story/956819.html
Where I’ll be dining Friday..
Top Chef Calls Fresno Home
Bay area fans seek a beloved Chinese chef and find him living his dream of owning his own business…in Fresno.
It sounds like a movie plot: Celebrated Chinese chef leaves the big city to pursue his dream in a Fresno strip mall…..
cindy,
SAT’s? lets go back to a loin cloth, a spear and being dropped off 50 miles from anywhere in the backwoods. if you get home you pass!
half joking
Cindy,
the loss of a defined family structure, family life seems to be the root of many of the issues. the exact make up of the family is irrelevant, but a defined family with a real family life consisting of more then diner, bed, work, repeat needs to be redevelopped. another unintended effect of globalization (O partially anyway)
Kettle @374
Oh no – I’m talking about kids who don’t always have dinner – who often don’t know which bed (for sure) they will sleep in that night.
They tear open their ramen for 10:00 break. I envision it swelling up in their tummies. At least once a week I pay for someone’s lunch. Not because they are “free and reduced” but because no one thought to pack them a lunch or send along money. Some of these kids are “raising” themselves.
“Where are your library books?”
“I’m not sure – Maybe in Dad’s truck??..”
For the second year running, I have a situation where Grandma is the caregiver – Mom’s on drugs and Dad’s long gone.
Here’s the kicker – I work in a “good” school district!
Cuban Pete’s didn’t do it for me, but I know a lot of people really like the joint. I found it noisy, overcrowded and the food was always cold. I’ve gone there twice and same result both times. Let me know what your opinion is on it.
Cindy 376 – I am a CASA advocate. Every one of the kids I’ve been assigned to has been abused or neglected due to drugs.
My last kid was a teen who was so learning disabled that he was collecting SSI. His mother didn’t even bother to attend his annual IEPs or make sure he went to school, but she sure managed to cash his monthly checks to buy herself coke and heroin.
About 30% of our foster care population here in NJ is classified. Most of the parents are unwilling or unable to advocate for their kids education. In my district we have a pilot program where the CASA is assigned an educational guardianship for the child. The advocate essentially becomes the parent when it comes to the child’s education. I did this for my last case.
Unfortunately the child I was assigned to was a truant teen. I’ve requested that the next child I work with be younger and actually attend school so that they may actually benefit from the services I get awarded.
(378) Gator – Thank You – Thank you for working with and caring about kids. Society needs to look at the problems children are facing long and hard or it will be our undoing.
Isolated children, who do not know how to communicate, and feel disdain toward authority figures…not good.
The behavioral problems have increased 5 fold from my beginning days in teaching. The kindergarten teachers tell me – “you ain’t seen nothin’ yet.”
cindy (369)-
Sounds like a great way to create the perfect killing machine, en masse.
Anybody really think the US is not actively looking for a way to throw an even bigger war than the two we’ve got going now?
The problem with the two we have is, they haven’t killed off nearly enough of us.
Remember Clot – When I explained our “zero tolerance” for bullying – my thoughts exactly. Columbine – averted is the thought there. Schools are needing to explain the most basic social skills – I kid you not.
“Now remember – no spitting and biting.”
Cindy (379)-
Not good? Is good, if you’re perpetuating endless war:
“Isolated children, who do not know how to communicate, and feel disdain toward authority figures…not good.”
Combat-ready at the age of 16. You can take a continent with enough soldiers like this.
If they stay with us long enough – If we can work with them through our established programs…These kids turn around. They want to succeed. Problem is they are “mobile.”
The newest problem we are facing is centered around our recent call for all students whose parents work in our area enrolling their kids in our district. We experienced a “declining enrollment” and the district wanted to “up” our numbers. We did – to the tune of 700 out-of-district students.
But these new kids, who haven’t been in our system, have no idea how to follow rules. We are working on that though..
And who come combat ready with thousands of hours of gaming training.
Cindy 380 – Thanks. This last case was tough. DYFS was involved on and off for about 7 years before they finally removed the kid from his “home” (and I use that term very lightly). They removed him when he was 14, and it was way too late. Imagine a teen who has had no rules or parenting his entire life have someone attempt to implement structure and discipline in his life. He had so many failed foster home and shelter placements before I got his case. After 2 arrests, the best thing I could do for him was stay on DYFS’ tail until they placed him in a secure residential school facility FAR, FAR away from the trouble he was running with in Newark.
If they had removed him when first reported, the kid might have actually had a chance at a good stable placement and an education.
Nah Clot – You can’t have them. I have different plans for these kids….
#369 Cindy,
I’m amazed at the awful parenting I see.
I used to work with a woman who spoiled her kid and never disciplined her. Bought her anything she wanted, even when she was on the verge of bankruptcy. She treated the kid like a cross between a pet and an adult. I predict the kid is heavily in drugs or pregnant by junior year.
What ever happened to having dinner with your kids, and playing games, interacting with them, and reading to them? Plus telling them no and giving them encouragement and discipline so they know there will be consequences from their actions? Is that so 1970’s?
(385) Gator – We have a “group home” around the block from school. So I have seen plenty of “group” kids succeed – at least at the elementary level. You are right. They need to leave that environment early.
We do need to acknowledge the problem – as a society. And if schools need to semi-raise some of these kids – so be it. They are lined up for breakfast – we feed most of them lunch, and when I do afterschool intervention I provide the snack.
I just tell myself that with an education – they will have a chance in this world.
(388) barien – That’s exactly what we need Barien – exactly – So 70’s.
This teacher’s gotta pack it in..(don’t laugh.) I’m up rather early… (3 instead of 4) – my brain won’t accept the time change. See ya later.
I dunno bairen, Mike Brady did that all the time, and look what happened to Marcia.
#390 Cindy
Then you have the other extreme, the people who micro manage their kids lives and have them going to mom’s book club, walking club, 3 different music clubs, 4 playgoups, yada, yada, yada. What ever happened to going to 1 or 2 group events a week and arranging play dates?
I’m truly baffled. most parents seem to fall into either the anything goes/whatever crew or splitting the kid’s day up into 10 minute increments.
Let the kid be a kid, plus give them structure and give them encouragement in whatever hobbies/activities they get involved in that are positive for their development.
#392 Pat,
I blame Sam the Butcher for that
“who do not know how to communicate, and feel disdain toward authority figures”
Sounds like the “love child” of Bush and Cheney.
You are right Barien – 100% Let your kid be a kid. But then there’s….
“So today you get to write about your favorite TV show.”
“So Jonny, what do you like to watch?”
“Wrestling!” “You know – Smackdown.”
I kid you not.
#395 Shore Guy
neo conservative party circa 2048 nominee?
Night all..
Cindy,
Not to worry. At noon on 1-20 all the world’s problwms will be solved.
#396 Cindy,
My kids are not allowed to watch any of that crap.
I won’t even watch Law & Order if the kids are in the room.
We do play Wii though (only sports and Diego though)
#399 Shore guy
it would be real hard for the new guy to be worse than the current one.
What’s wrong with Smackdown?
Nikkei, Hang Seng and Singapore puking it up right now…
Cindy,
My six year old finally got tired of watching PBS Kids and Noggin, and started sneaking in doses of Hannah Montanna, and Suite Life with Zach and Cody on the Disney Channel, while the grandparents were “babysitting”. Immediate change in behavior for the worse ensued. I watched a few of these shows for a few minutes, and pulled the DirecTV box electric plug out of the socket. Disney Channels, NickJr, Nickelodeon, etc. – it truly is mind-addling kid-crack, with a side order of really sarcastic bad attitude.
I told her that she can watch Cyberchase and WordGirl again on special occasions, assuming that she reads her books, and completes all of her Chinese lessons.
Almost immediately after I pulled the plug, she became happier and more engaged. Now she has more time to write her little books with pictures, dream up presidential elections for her stuffed animals, learn Chinese songs, play in the yard, and do and accomplish things.
Obvious stuff, but it works. Turn off the evil TV shows.
NJGator, 287
West Virginia 38
Georgia 35
Some pansies. When is the last time y’all played a regular season game north of Athens? ;)
The harsh (?) reality is that schools are warehouses for kids until they are old enough to enter the workforce. This time is used by some kids to either thrive, endure, or be beaten down by the rigor/structure.
Once they are done with their education, then the real fun begins. In a society with no inherent promise of employment or opportunities that are getting smaller not larger in the contraction…it is more and more important for the family to provide the safety net and training that the schools cannot be completely responsible for.
Dow futures dropping this AM. The sideshow is over, the main event continues.
As for TV…games…and outdoor activities…judging from the amount of time that the regulars spend posting here…my guess is that most of you are not “outdoorsmen and women”…..just a ‘wild’ hunch here…..kids will only learn by example either from their parents or their friends….so log off the PC, get off your fat *ss and take them for a bike ride….
If less than 50% of Americans own stock and many of them have bailed on securities…how can the market claim to be the main event? The banks are busy hoarding your tax dollars and corporations are trying to figure out how to get blood from a stone. Watching the market every day is a fool’s game.
Main event referring to economic melt-down.
A. West
I got rid of our TV for the same reason. We take videos out of the library for the weekends. There is no screen time allowed on school days. Our daughter and son are routinely praised by their teachers for their ability to focus and follow directions.
It isn’t easy and I grew up on TV but it seems to be better for them.