From the AP:
Financial burden of homeownership spread unequally
When it comes to homeownership, Hispanics in New Jersey, single parents in California and senior citizens in Rhode Island all have something in common: More than a third have an unaffordable mortgage.
Inequality in America has traditionally followed familiar patterns of race, age and education. Those long-standing gaps have been magnified by the real estate boom and now the historic bust, according to an Associated Press analysis of 2007 Census Bureau data.
While minorities have made significant gains in wealth and home ownership since 1990, “things are going into reverse gear,” and now the homeownership rate for blacks and Hispanics is falling, said Edward Wolff, a New York University economist who studies income and wealth distribution.
Nearly 9.5 million households, or nearly one out of every five of the nearly 52 million homeowners with a mortgage, spend 38 percent or more of their pretax income on their mortgage payment, property taxes and insurance, the AP’s analysis found. That’s the new threshold to qualify for the loan assistance program launched last month by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, the mortgage finance companies now under government control.
Not surprisingly, the most financially burdened are in California, Florida, Nevada and the Northeast, areas hardest hit by soaring home prices and now foreclosures.
…
Just under a third of Hispanic homeowners spend at least 38 percent of their income on housing expenses, compared with about a quarter of Asian and black households and nearly 16 percent of white households.In much of the country, the trend is more pronounced. For example, included among those who spent at least 38 percent of their income on housing are:
About 40 percent of black borrowers in California, Nevada, Oregon and Massachusetts.
More than 30 percent of Asian borrowers in California and Florida.
Nearly half of Hispanic homeowners in Rhode Island and at least 40 percent in Alaska, California, Florida, Hawaii, Maryland, New Jersey and New York.
Many Latino families wound up with expensive subprime mortgages because they often have cash income and no bank account, said Janis Bowdler, associate director for wealth building at National Council of La Raza in Washington.
…
Among seniors with a mortgage, nearly three in 10 spend at least 38 percent of their income on housing, according to the AP analysis. The stress is most severe in nine states: California, Washington D.C., Florida, Massachusetts, Nevada, New Jersey, New York, Rhode Island and Vermont.
…
For decades, the government and most lenders considered homeowners who spent 30 percent or more of their income on housing to be financially strapped.But that rule of thumb got thrown out the window during the housing boom. When prices were soaring, many Americans could only afford to buy a home by taking out ever-riskier home loans. Lenders were happy to cooperate, because if the homeowner defaulted, the property could still be sold for enough money to cover the loan.
House-rich and giddy, American attitudes about debt and the risks that go with it changed dramatically.
“The average American is in hock up to his eyeballs,” said David Wyss, chief economist at Standard & Poor’s in New York.
From the Morning Call:
Foreclosure aid generating backlash
he nation’s foreclosure crisis is centered in four states. But taxpayers across the country will feel the pain of bailing them out.
California, Florida, Nevada and Arizona generated about half of all foreclosure filings nationwide last year, according to RealtyTrac Inc., even though residents in those states hold just a quarter of U.S. mortgages. Since mid-2007, skyrocketing foreclosures in those states have been magnifying the national rate.
As lawmakers prepare to spend up to $100 billion in financial bailout money on a sweeping foreclosure prevention plan pushed by President-elect Barack Obama, the discrepancy is adding another layer to a problem already confounding economists, politicians and homeowners.
…
Now, in areas like Paramus, N.J., politicians are facing anger from borrowers who behaved more responsibly during the housing market’s boom years, and say they shouldn’t have to assist homeowners and lenders in other far-flung states that were anything but bastions of thrift and responsibility.
”They’re wondering: Why does the person who did things right end up having to subsidize the person across the street who maybe did buy a house that was just too large,” said Rep. Scott Garrett, a New Jersey Republican, who has received numerous complaints from voters in his district in the northern part of the state.
From Bloomberg:
California Finds Public-Works Spending No Unemployment Cure-All
Riverside also has almost $1 billion worth of public-works projects underway or planned, from widening roads to building a new jail. The county illustrates both the promise and the limitations of the spending President-elect Barack Obama proposes to pull the U.S. economy out of a recession that may become the longest since the Great Depression.
“What infrastructure spending can do is bolster employment in a group of industries, like construction, with workers who are ready to go,” said Brad Kemp, director of regional research at Beacon Economics in Los Angeles. “What it can’t do is stop the unemployment rate from rising currently because there are a lot of forces coming at consumers, who are holding back on spending.”
…
While Riverside’s investments put thousands to work, unemployment in the Inland Empire may still soar to 12 percent in the next year or two, said Kemp and John Husing, founder of Redlands, California-based consulting firm Economics & Politics Inc.
From Krugman:
Wall Street Voodoo
Old-fashioned voodoo economics — the belief in tax-cut magic — has been banished from civilized discourse. The supply-side cult has shrunk to the point that it contains only cranks, charlatans, and Republicans.
But recent news reports suggest that many influential people, including Federal Reserve officials, bank regulators, and, possibly, members of the incoming Obama administration, have become devotees of a new kind of voodoo: the belief that by performing elaborate financial rituals we can keep dead banks walking.
…
A better approach would be to do what the government did with zombie savings and loans at the end of the 1980s: it seized the defunct banks, cleaning out the shareholders. Then it transferred their bad assets to a special institution, the Resolution Trust Corporation; paid off enough of the banks’ debts to make them solvent; and sold the fixed-up banks to new owners.
The current buzz suggests, however, that policy makers aren’t willing to take either of these approaches. Instead, they’re reportedly gravitating toward a compromise approach: moving toxic waste from private banks’ balance sheets to a publicly owned “bad bank” or “aggregator bank” that would resemble the Resolution Trust Corporation, but without seizing the banks first.
Sheila Bair, the chairwoman of the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation, recently tried to describe how this would work: “The aggregator bank would buy the assets at fair value.” But what does “fair value” mean?
…
Now, maybe private buyers aren’t willing to pay what toxic waste is really worth: “We don’t have really any rational pricing right now for some of these asset categories,” Ms. Bair says. But should the government be in the business of declaring that it knows better than the market what assets are worth? And is it really likely that paying “fair value,” whatever that means, would be enough to make Gotham solvent again?
…
What I suspect is that policy makers — possibly without realizing it — are gearing up to attempt a bait-and-switch: a policy that looks like the cleanup of the savings and loans, but in practice amounts to making huge gifts to bank shareholders at taxpayer expense, disguised as “fair value” purchases of toxic assets.
The Sharper Image … goodnight
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/01/19/technology/companies/19sharper.html?ref=business
where will everyone buy electronics 5 yrs from now?
4 Yikes
They will buy on ebay!
#3
The supply-side cult has shrunk to the point that it contains only cranks, charlatans, and Republicans.
There’s a difference between those 3?
I think sas may have posted this last night:
Report: New York to lead US cities in job losses
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20090119/ap_on_bi_ge/city_job_declines_1
But there’s no recession!
http://interfluidity.powerblogs.com/posts/1232308246.shtml
(3) Grim
Marginal Revolution and Interfluidity are having an argument over “What the Swedes Did and Did Not Do” during their 1990’s bank crisis.
Here – Steve Randy Waldman challenges some of Drum’s points from Marginal Revolution.
Interesting..
http://www.iht.com/articles/2009/01/19/business/20ukbanks.php
Britain announces massive new bank bailout plan – IHT
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/
Picture #2
“The build-up of imported cars at the port of Newark, New Jersey.”
“Theres a difference between those 3?”
Hey, hey, hey. Be nice to those of us who are Rs. In about29 hours, we become leaderless and rudderless. Oh, nevermind, we have been like that for a good two years.
Did someone say ebay?
“EBay expected to see earnings drop from slowdown”
http://tinyurl.com/7rekbp
“N.J. affordable housing payment plan shifts — again”
http://tinyurl.com/7xr57q
Is it possible that first at least one day, that we could all post something that’s positive. Hell, I’d be satisfied to see something positive posted for one hour let alone a day.
Please people, let’s try this. Don’t be like sas.
first-for
“Report: New York to lead US cities in job losses”
wait a minute, will this tarnis that “close to ny” selling talking point?
can’t be, thats a conspiracy theory.
RE always goes up, and omama says “anything is possible”. so, yeah, my house can go up 50% in 1 year. omama says its possible.
i love omama, he paved the way for us all.
(yeah, he will pave the way for your ass to the unemployment line)
SAS
“Is it possible that first at least one day, that we could all post something that’s positive”
fair enough, bloke. i will follow your lead.
SAS
“Is it possible that first at least one day, that we could all post something that’s positive.”
50.5,
Approx 4 weeks for pitchers and catchers.
From Bloomberg:
RBS May Post 28 Billion-Pound Loss as Crisis Deepens
Royal Bank of Scotland Group Plc said it may post a loss of as much as 28 billion pounds ($41 billion), the biggest ever reported by a U.K. company, as the credit crisis worsens. The stock slumped as much as 46 percent.
…
“I am angry at the Royal Bank of Scotland and what has happened,” Prime Minister Gordon Brown told reporters in London today. The bank took “irresponsible risks,” in investing in U.S. subprime mortgages and ABN Amro, he said.
…
“Full-scale nationalization” is the most likely next step for RBS “if the latest initiative proves insufficient,” Nomura analysts Robert Law and Raul Sinha said in a note to clients today. The bank may be forced to raise more cash from investors, diluting existing shareholders’ stakes, until the full scale of credit losses is known, they added.
ok. The most positive thing we can do right now is to wish President Bush well and to thank him for a job well done. That would be positive. It would also be positive to realize that he was dealt a bad hand by certain segments determined to undermine the housing market so they could get a house on the cheap.
But it’s the reverse here. Everyone is in the tank for “That One”, even people like Charles Krauthammer and Larry Kudlow. I saw both of these guys gushing over eating dinner with “That One”. George Will was actually defending him on policy. What the hell is the world coming to?
It was easier to know what to do under Bush as the damn lines were clearly drawn.
I am so happy tomorrow is the dawning of the new age. Much like Jesus in the story of the loaves and fish the Messiah O’bama is going to perform a miracle and make dollar bills multiply to feed the masses.
BC Bob,
Who put you in charge of trying to be funny?
“Who put you in charge of trying to be funny?”
50.5,
Wasn’t trying to be funny. Soon it will be; Play Ball.
“The most positive thing we can do right now is to wish President Bush well and to thank him for a job well done.”
I wish he slips and falls to the bottom of a well in Crawford.
Re101,
memorize the following line:
Say hello to the new management, same as the old management
the only thing that changes is the curtains….
“Is it possible that first at least one day, that we could all post something thats positive. Hell, Id be satisfied to see something positive posted for one hour let alone a day”
Hummm. Positive. Policies aside, I am so glad that in 29 hours we will once again have a smart president.
I’m really disappointed with Larry Kudlow behavior toward “That One”. He’s supposed to be a part of the damn loyal opposition, yet he’s groveling at “That One’s” feet. Same thing applies to Krauthammer. George Will has been suspect as of recent years anyway and hasn’t been acting like a true conservative.
Look at Kudlow groveling here at That One’s feet:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=X03rs-KavKQ
“Hummm. Positive. Policies aside, I am so glad that in 29 hours we will once again have a smart president.”
You’re not a republican and I don’t consider Rockefeller republicans to be true conservatives. You remind me of Kudlow. Turncoat.
reinvestor101(the original),
i am working on my own piece, that i think is positive.
its about decentralization, and opportunities that can be found and made for buiness and small buisness.
i outlined how we’ve been intermediated by Wall St, & big banks, and what we can do to break this intermediation and keep the money local in a local economy, rather than ship it to NY or London (which they in turn send to who knows where..that would be apart of the trillion dollar black economy),
i think thats postivie, i will try to post over next few days.
i guess i could always post sniglets as I go.
anyone interested in the sniglets?
SAS
sas,
I look forward to reading this, however, this sounds borderline subversive with the mention of the “black economy”. Let’s see what you’ll do.
I’ve seen a few articles on folks trying to create their local currency so they can abandon the USD. Some town in upstate New York was doing that. Don’t post anything on that as that’s subversive as well.
I’m POSITIVE that it’s going to get worse before it gets better.
Lower home prices will be an incredibly positive factor in our economic recovery.
Increased housing affordability will leave families with higher levels of discretionary income that they will spend and save. This increased spending will result in increased GDP growth and the increased savings will result in new business investment.
High and rapidly accelerating home prices are like crack cocaine for the economy. Sure, they’ll push the economy a bit higher in the short-term, but at a serious cost. A very different scenario from a home price increase caused by rising fundamentals (employment, wages, rents).
Falling home prices are incredibly positive for the economy.
High home prices got us into this mess, low home prices will get us out.
I look forward to the recovery.
I am POSITIVE that houses are going to be 15% cheaper by the end of the year.
Hooray!
When families are spending more than 38% of their incomes on housing, that leaves them with little, if anything, left to spend. In an economy that is three quarters supported by consumer spending, this is a death sentence.
In an economy predicated on debt service, the only entities that profit are the banks.
If this is accurate, why have we not seen more significant declines in this area?
Foreclosure heat map
“Many Latino families wound up with expensive subprime mortgages because they often have cash income and no bank account” = they cheat on taxes. Talking about financial burden, how about the non-Latino families that pay taxes and mortgage on time?? Let’s talk inequality in America.
#38,
“When families are spending more than 38%..”
Simple answer, they should not own a home. When I was making $5 an hour I did not own a home. But because of the a&& holes that were able to borrow 100% with no docs we are in this mess. F them all. Foreclose on all of them.
“In an economy predicated on debt service, the only entities that profit are the banks.”
Think again pal, look at bank earnings and tell me if they still make money.
The only entities that profit are the guys charging 6% for 2 hours of work. RE agents.
Come on now, if this were a positive, why is everyone doing everything they can to stablize home prices? Could it be that this is not a positive that outweighs the huge negative of the destruction of our major financial institutions? We can’t have both; cheaper home prices and vibrant major financial institutions unless we’re prepared to choose the needs of people over major economic interests.
Cheaper home prices mean the absolute destruction of major financial institutions.
grim says:
January 19, 2009 at 9:24 am
Lower home prices will be an incredibly positive factor in our economic recovery.
Increased housing affordability will leave families with higher levels of discretionary income that they will spend and save. This increased spending will result in increased GDP growth and the increased savings will result in new business investment.
High and rapidly accelerating home prices are like crack cocaine for the economy. Sure, they’ll push the economy a bit higher in the short-term, but at a serious cost. A very different scenario from a home price increase caused by rising fundamentals (employment, wages, rents).
Falling home prices are incredibly positive for the economy.
High home prices got us into this mess, low home prices will get us out.
I look forward to the recovery.
“High home prices got us into this mess, low home prices will get us out”
Grim, this is were I disagree with you.
i think home prices are a syptom of the larger. underlying problem.
in my opinion, the main problem has been intermediation (on all levels).
ex. you live next to me, you send your omney to manhattan for 3%, i want a loan, i have to goto manhattan and get a loan for 17% on the same money.
why not sidestep intermediation, i just goto you and borrow some money at say..5%?
i think alot of people focus alot on the value of a dollar, which is valid.
but, people groosly overlook the “transfer” of those dollars.
i.e. whom does that money goto & where? for what purposes? purposes that I believe in, or will will that money find its way in the drug trade, a bomb over gaza or Iraq, or an I paying AIG’s strip bar lap dances and cocaine problems.
thoughts?
SAS
holy crow!
i gotta mtg to goto and i am sitting here in my pajamas w. coffee blogging.
Yee.. catch you all later.
(i just hope its not those guys from India again)
SAS
Cheaper home prices mean the absolute destruction of major financial institutions.
_______________________________________________
Big deal. There are plenty of banks who were not irresponsible that will lend to people and companies.
Call me crazy but I do not think banks have the god given right to be bailed out due to their arrogance and stupidity.
Come on now, if this were a positive, why is everyone doing everything they can to stablize home prices?
Because they want to be reelected silly, isn’t that always the case? You need to pander to your constituency.
But I ask you, are they really doing anything, or just maintaining the appearance of trying? You know, sometimes all you’ve got to do is say you gave it a try, and that is enough for forgiveness.
Home prices are falling because they disconnected with the fundamentals that typically drove home prices, incomes, employment and rents.
Price controls are almost always doomed to fail, so any attempts to manipulating home prices will fail as well. Darn those unintended consequences that always seem to pop up when the government tries to manipulate a market.
Want to put a floor under home prices?
Easy, ignore them.
Instead, focus on increasing wages and employment. With those two, rents will follow. And as rents follow, so will home prices.
Lets get back to those fundamentals and work on rebuilding our economy on solid footing.
“why not sidestep intermediation, i just goto you and borrow some money at say..5%?”
You know, this may be what we get to naturally. The entire securization game is in its death throes and that was really the main thing that drove intermediation in the securities markets.
The death of wholesale securization of everything under the sun will force us back to local institutions for things like auto loans and etc. The government will handle mortgages. Saving money at your local bank will become popular once again as this will be an attractive alternative to Madoff ripoffs and the general mayhem in the markets.
This will not occur without major upheaval, as we’re experiencing now.
grim (3)-
Yep.
“Want to put a floor under home prices?
Easy, ignore them.
Instead, focus on increasing wages and employment. With those two rents will follow. As rents follow, so will home prices.”
You’re an adherent to the Peter Schiff school of thought. To choose between increasing wages and employment, especially in the “period of the shareholder” where jobs are outsourced to support profits is easier said than done. This requires a quantum shift in thinking, outlook and policy. Is it possible? Perhaps, but not without butting up against some very powerful interests that believe otherwise.
#32. grim says:
January 19, 2009 at 9:24 am
Lower home prices will be an incredibly positive factor in our economic recovery.
—————————————
Grim,
Isn’t it a matter of how low is good? If current owners can’t sell and move up because of being underwater then they are more likely to stay put. First time buyers won’t have starter houses to buy. I mean, isn’t housing a system where people are continually selling and buying? If more people stay in their current houses doesn’t that disrupt the economics of the system?
tard (27)-
Maybe O slipped him an 8-ball before their dinner:
“Look at Kudlow groveling here at That One’s feet”
Isn’t it a matter of how low is good?
Of course it is, but I would posit that home prices will not fall below the floor that is dictated by those fundamentals. As low as necessary, but no lower. The difference here is that the market dictates this level, not politicians.
If current owners can’t sell and move up because of being underwater then they are more likely to stay put. First time buyers won’t have starter houses to buy.
Non-issue. The group of “trapped” underwater owners is a small part of the big picture. Those who aren’t can move up or down with the same ease as before. Tide raises and lowers all ships. While my starter home may have fallen in price, so did the move up home. The difference between those has always been maintained to some extent. A move up or down buyer (not underwater) is only concerned with the difference, not the absolute values of either property.
I mean, isn’t housing a system where people are continually selling and buying? If more people stay in their current houses doesn’t that disrupt the economics of the system?
The trading of used homes adds little, if any, economic growth to an economy. What value is added when a used home is resold? The only real economic growth is based on the industry focused on the sale and financing of these homes, a very small piece of the economy. The construction of new homes is an entirely different animal, which does add to economic growth. As does remodeling, to some extent, although I’d argue that remodeling and refurbishment of older housing stock would continue regardless of the status of the resale market.
“The gloom of recession is moving in. We’ll see relief rallies but not a bull market. The bubble that spawned the current bust was huge, and so are the repercussions.”
“In midweek Goldman Sachs Group (GS, news, msgs) increased estimates on how far home prices might fall. Previously, it thought that housing would perhaps bottom out at the end of 2009, down an additional 15%. Now Goldman thinks the bottom might not be reached until mid-2010 — and that the lows will be 20% to 25% from here. The latter is more in line with my expectations, but I think it’s certainly not what most people had factored in.”
http://articles.moneycentral.msn.com/Investing/ContrarianChronicles/real-recovery-wont-be-anytime-soon.aspx
#49. Grim:
The construction of new homes is an entirely different animal, which does add to economic growth. As does remodeling, to some extend, although I’d argue that remodeling and refurbishment of older housing stock would continue regardless of the status of the resale market.
—————————————
I’ll tell you, I’m adding to economic growth with the place I bought in South Jersey. They had 30 years of deferred maintenance on that house. Most of the problem areas were never fixed after my family sold it back then. The couple of things that did do- an addition on the back of the house- I’m going to have to redo because it looks like a handymans special. I figure I’ll have put an extra $100,000 in the house in the house 12 months.
Grim:
could you please update me on MLS#2601880 in Parsippany, NJ. No longer on the MLS. I guess that it must be under contract. I liked the house: WET BAR! (Why is it that everything in my life has the underpining of alcohol?)
Good point, perhaps deferred maintenance on housing stock is something we should look at from a policy perspective?
Maybe we need to revisit the tax implications of maintenance, repairs, and upkeep? Maybe the scope of capital improvement should be widened?
How about newer/larger tax credits targeted at efficiency and conservation?
could you please update me on MLS#2601880 in Parsippany, NJ.
Under contract
First time buyers won’t have starter houses to buy.
Two more points here:
1) Rapidly increasing home prices mean first time home buyers can’t afford starter homes. This was the situation we were in about a year ago. As first-time buyers left the market place, the entire market froze up. Nobody can move up or down without them.
2) The recent housing mania caused a situation in which first-time buyers were forced to bid against builders for these homes. Builders won, of course, and demolished the home. So not only did the first-time buyer lose out on this specific opportunity, but a starter home was removed from the stock of homes.
From CNBC:
These Bailouts Won’t Work Either: Dr. Doom
The new bank bailouts are not likely to work because they are run by the same people who prolonged the economic agony by throwing money at weak companies rather than allowing them to fail and encouraging the strong ones, Marc Faber, the publisher of the Gloom, Doom and Boom Report, told CNBC Monday.
Grim at #54:
Thanks.
Grim,
Could you please update me on 9 Hidden
Lake Drive in North Brunswick. It’s no longer on the mls listings.
Thank you.
BP,
Expired after 222 days on market. Originally listed at $637,000 and eventually cut to $535,000. I guess a $102,000 haircut and 2/3 of a year on market couldn’t move that property.
Q for the group:
Looking for a good firearms class for the wife (pistol). I have heard horror stories of really crappy classes and instructors in NJ for exorbitant prices!
Can anyone recommend someplace that runs a quality course, a basic intro course including live fire?
Re101,
be positive? I am positive that there will be some kick a$$ videos of the riots
Eastern Europe braced for a violent ‘spring of discontent’
Eastern Europe is heading for a violent “spring of discontent”, according to experts in the region who fear that the global economic downturn is generating a dangerous popular backlash on the streets Hit increasingly hard by the financial crisis, countries such as Bulgaria, Romania and the Baltic states face deep political destabilisation and social strife, as well as an increase in racial tension Last week protesters were tear-gassed as they threw rocks at police outside parliament in Vilnius, capital of Lithuania, in a protest against an austerity package including tax rises and benefit cuts. In Sofia, Bulgaria, 150 people were arrested and at least 30 injured in widespread violence. More than 100 were detained after street battles between security forces and demonstrators in the Latvian capital, Riga.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2009/jan/18/eu-riots-vilinius
when do we see this in NJ? thayts when you see torches
Panic Grows In California As Welfare Checks Set To Stop
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/28709883/
What’s this BS with The Star Ledger. They get rid of Sam and raise the daily rate 50%, up to .75? No inflation?
re #62 – Kettle1 the welfare check haven’t stopped the money has been redirected up the food chain.
grim (53)-
Now you’re talking.
How much of this country’s existing stock of homes is functionally obsolete? I shudder to guess.
Okay, silly question after a year of reading this blog – what the heck IS a POS?
grim (55)-
Here comes the future problem:
There will be tons of housing stock for first-time buyers, once all the current owners who are subject to foreclosure lose the properties.
However, the next rung of the property ladder will be broken, as all the people blown out of their homes by foreclosure will not be trading up.
POS = piece of shit
bb 66 piece of shit
ya know…. a term used affectionately..
uh. right.
sl
Q for the group:
Looking for a good firearms class for the wife (pistol). I have heard horror stories of really crappy classes and instructors in NJ for exorbitant prices!
Can anyone recommend someplace that runs a quality course, a basic intro course including live fire?
Rays on Rt 22. Talk to the guy who runs the program, ex-law enforcement. He’ll run a private session for you and your wife.
Session is one day, about 4 or 5 hours. Bring guns and ammo. He does a good mix of instruction, safety, and shooting styles. He threw in a mix of close combat and home defense techniques when I took the class.
Otherwise, I’d suggest going to Blackwater for a few days. ;)
60 Kettle
Email me. I think I know someone that can hook you up.
re: #61 Kettle1 – I will raise your Easten Europe Riots with something a little closer to home.
At risk of ‘rapid collapse’
QUOTE// Indiscriminate kidnappings. Nearly daily beheadings. Gangs that mock and kill government agents.
This isn’t Iraq or Pakistan. It’s Mexico, which the U.S. government and a growing number of experts say is becoming one of the world’s biggest security risks. //UNQUOTE
//QUOTE
The border cities of Juárez and Tijuana wake up each morning to find streets littered with mutilated, often headless, bodies. Some victims are dumped outside schools. Most are just wrapped in a cheap blanket and tossed into an empty lot. //UNQUOTE
http://www.mysanantonio.com/news/local_news/US_report_says_Mexico_at_risk_of_rapid_collapse.html
72 in Mod Grim
#65. Clotpoll says:
January 19, 2009 at 11:37 am
grim (53)-
Now you’re talking.
How much of this country’s existing stock of homes is functionally obsolete? I shudder to guess.
————————————-
I have no idea how the former owners lived in the place I have. The kitchen was really non-functional. Both the double oven and frig were broken and very old. They also weren’t the cleanest people in the world. Funny thing is, the guy was an Air Force Academy Grad and an Airline Pilot. I mean, they must have had some money.
#60. kettle1 says:
January 19, 2009 at 11:25 am
Q for the group:
Looking for a good firearms class for the wife (pistol). I have heard horror stories of really crappy classes and instructors in NJ for exorbitant prices!
—————————————
It may be worth it to go to PA for the class. They appear much more firearms friendly.
Grim,
Thank you.
sean 72
if interested we could have an interesting chat about that offline. Its probably a little far afield for here…
________________________________
more on california shutdown/insolvency
http://www.latimes.com/news/local/la-me-budget17-2009jan17,0,5517766,full.story
-The state will suspend tax refunds, welfare checks, student grants and other payments owed to Californians starting Feb. 1
-Even if a budget agreement is reached by the end of this month, tax refunds and other payments could remain temporarily frozen
-California is projected to be $346 million short of the funds it needs to pay all its bills in February. By March, the state would be so far in the red that even continuing to suspend payments would not cover the shortfall. California would be insolvent, making the issuance of IOUs likely.
-State officials have already designed an IOU template,and have been negotiating with banks over whether taxpayers could cash or deposit them if they are issued
-The state has also halted payments of bond money for more than 5,300 public-works projects.
Jim,
I am fine with going to PA. Just looking for a class that someone can reccomend 1st hand. Nj or PA is fine
“more on california shutdown/insolvency”
But the continue paying for illegal immigrants. Only in CA. With this line of thinking, they should go bankrupt as an example for others.
I am fine with going to PA. Just looking for a class that someone can reccomend 1st hand. Nj or PA is fine
Ket,
I was there, first hand, and recommend. He did a fantastic job of making a first-time shooter feel comfortable with a compact .40 that kicked like a mule. He even spent extra time covering misfire safety procedures and clearing jams. Comprehensive and worth every penny.
IS california going to be a model for NJ?
Its fascinating in a somewhat morbid manner how people are protesting spending cuts while the state has become insolvent and the individual counties and cities are crying for stimulus packages.
Its like a sinking ship where the rats are stepping on one another to stay above the water.
Ket,
How about a group class? I know a few people looking for firearms safety classes (including me.)
Can you guys forward info to me, too?
I actually have been trying to find a good, not too expensive “krav maga” class.
sl
sean,
i say 3 euro nations beat 1 north american 1…
This week, Riga’s cobbled streets became a war zone. Protesters armed with blocks of ice smashed up Latvia’s finance ministry. Hundreds tried to force their way into the legislature, enraged by austerity cuts. “Trust in the state’s authority and officials has fallen catastrophically,” said President Valdis Zatlers, who called for the dissolution of parliament. In Lithuania, riot police fired rubber-bullets on a trade union march. Dogs chased stragglers into the Vilnia river. A demonstration outside Bulgaria’s parliament in Sofia turned violent on Wednesday. These three states are all members of the Exchange Rate Mechanism (ERM2), the euro’s pre-detention cell. They must join. It is written into their EU contracts.
The result of subjecting ex-Soviet catch-up economies to the monetary regime of the leaden West has been massive overheating. Latvia’s current account deficit hit 26pc of GDP. Riga property prices surpassed Berlin. The inevitable bust is proving epic. Latvia’s property group Balsts says Riga flat prices have fallen 56pc since mid-2007. The economy contracted 18pc annualised over the last six months. Leaked documents reveal – despite a blizzard of lies by EU and Latvian officials – that the International Monetary Fund called for devaluation as part of a €7.5bn joint rescue for Latvia. Such adjustments are crucial in IMF deals. They allow countries to claw their way back to health without suffering perma-slump.
“not true conservatives. You remind me of Kudlow. Turncoat. ”
I am a TR and RR Republican — a true conservative, not one of these fake ones for whom conservatism only means cutting taxes even when we have run up a debt on our watch. Conservatism rests on individual rights, and fiscal responsibility. The “conservatives” running the R party in recent years dod not honor or respect individual rights and have been a fiscal disaster.
kettle,
Spain, cut.
http://www.reuters.com/article/bondsNews/idUSLJ50247920090119
“How about a group class? I know a few people looking for firearms safety classes (including me.)”
SL,
There’s a bull market somewhere.
lost 71, grim 80
are you talking about the same thing?
Lost i dont have your e-mail. you can reach me at 1elttek at gmail
SL,
would be more then happy to have you join. another lady around would probably make my wife more comfortable
I just stumbled on this at Yahoo:
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20090119/ap_on_bi_ge/city_job_declines_1
181,000 jobs is a staggering number even for a doom-and-gloomer to process. Real estate recovery by summer 2009? I don’t think so…
How about a group class? I know a few people looking for firearms safety classes (including me.)
I can just see the headlines now.
A survivalist militia group was stopped in Pennsylvania this morning, shortly after crossing over the Delaware Memorial Bridge. The ATF received a tip the evening before, warning that the militia would be moving into PA that morning. The group was stopped with a cache of weapons and ammunition, purportedly en-route to a weapons training camp. An FBI counterterrorism agent at the scene refused to provide names, but stated that the group was well known from their online forum, where they routinely discussed government uprising, revolution, and canning vegetables.
Jmac!!!!
hows the little one? getting any sleep yet?
——————————–
BC
Re spain: Nice, does Ireland make it to may 1 without a downgrade?
but but but, i thought bailing out banks would make them loan money to joe sixpack and save us all?!?!?!?!?
A review of investor presentations and conference calls by executives of some two dozen banks around the country found that few cited lending as a priority. An overwhelming majority saw the bailout program as a no-strings-attached windfall that could be used to pay down debt, acquire other businesses or invest for the future.
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/01/18/business/18bank.html?_r=1&hp=&pagewanted=all
“An FBI counterterrorism agent at the scene refused to provide names, but stated that the group was well known from their online forum, where they routinely discussed government uprising, revolution, and canning vegetables.”
JB,
LMAO.
“Re spain: Nice, does Ireland make it to may 1 without a downgrade?”
Kettle,
No.
Wondering how much Chinese-made crap will be peddled at the inauguration…
Saw a photo online of something that looked like a bobble-head Obama.
Oh bother.
Am I wrong to be upset about 2 million Americans waiving Chinese-made flags at the inauguration?
Hey Kettle! Yeah, I’m sleeping. Mommy isn’t back at work yet so I get to avoid the overnight feedings M-F. Iin the meantime I’m having fun watching my townhouse bleed value (until summer 2009 when things resume going up at 18% per year).
Report: New York to lead US cities in job losses
What kills me is seeing some of these real estate pundits say that NYC somehow will stay strong in this market. Remember watching Mort Zuckerman on a PBS special saying NYC should suffer a bump, but it is a place that everyone wants to be. Tell that to RE owners in the 70’s, when NYC was on the verge of default. I look out my window and see a building behind me still going up. “Luxury apts”. 1 1/2 blocks from the view of my window I see two condo conversions. “Luxury Apts”. Oh I walk out my front door, right across the street. “Luxury Apts”. These RE pundits think these apartments are going to be in demand when high end wall street jobs are disappearing. For some reason they say there is not the supply glut there was in the late ’80s? They think demand for 3-4br’s are insatiable. Tell that to the directors and MD’s being laid off. I look out my window and I see oncoming supply in a down market. People getting laid off. How is there NOT going to be a supply glut? I bet when these large 3-4 BR’s don’t sell, they than turn to rental. Than when they don’t rent, they carve them into studio’s, 1BR’s and 2 BR’s. Oops we thought the market could support these “Luxury Apts”. There is your supply glut! I’ll be awaiting to pick up the pieces as I sit crammed in my 2BR rental with wife and 2kids. I’m looking for a 50% plus haircut in NYC. If it’s 60% to 70% haircut than I’m all in and buy a small place in the countryside.
Armageddon to Hammerin Hank and Bergabe. Opportunity to the recipient’s.
From kettle [91];
“He said the bank had not yet decided what to do with its bailout money, which he called “opportunity capital.” Increased lending would be a priority, said Mr. White, who did not rule out using it for other acquisitions, adding that when regulators invited PlainsCapital to apply for federal dollars, there were no conditions attached.”
“They didn’t tell me I had to do anything particular with it,” he said.
“An FBI counterterrorism agent at the scene refused to provide names, but stated that the group was well known from their online forum, where they routinely discussed government uprising, revolution, and canning vegetables.
Could it be JB, Clotpoll, BC and Stu??
Hell, I’d be satisfied to see something positive posted for one hour let alone a day.
Re101,
I’m positive, alright. Positive I’ll be able to pick up a RE bargain! Booyah!
Grim 89
you need a “best of” list. I nominate this for the 1st entry!
A survivalist militia group was stopped in Pennsylvania this morning, shortly after crossing over the Delaware Memorial Bridge. The ATF received a tip the evening before, warning that the militia would be moving into PA that morning. The group was stopped with a cache of weapons and ammunition, purportedly en-route to a weapons training camp. An FBI counterterrorism agent at the scene refused to provide names, but stated that the group was well known from their online forum, where they routinely discussed government uprising, revolution, and canning vegetables.
Hell, I’d be satisfied to see something positive posted for one hour let alone a day.
The manager of a pottery factory in the city of Wenzhou, in the Zhejiang province, was given a bonus for meeting his shipping quota of Commemorative Inaugural Plates.
Did anyone watch the Niall Ferguson Ascent of Money show on PBS? It was a good primer on the financial disaster we’re witnessing. I believe a series featuring Ferguson will begin on PBS in a few weeks.
RBS May Post 28 Billion-Pound Loss as Crisis Deepens
Luckily over a year ago they dinged me when I applied for a job. In a good place now that hopefully will weather the storm.
“I look out my window and see a building behind me still going up.”
HP [96],
I’m looking out my bldg towards 2 towers. The sign on the top, facing NY; 77 Hudson.com.
Good luck, Hov.
Frank [98],
Can’t be me. I’m still in line at A&F.
The manager of a pottery factory in the city of Wenzhou, in the Zhejiang province, was given a bonus for meeting his shipping quota of Commemorative Inaugural Plates.
Who am I kidding, what a ridiculous thing to say. They don’t get bonuses.
BC,
a better question: does ireland avoid a downgrade before feb 31
Housing rices are down 30%, compared with around 16% in the UK
…….the Republic’s third largest lender, Anglo Irish Bank, was nationalised last Thursday amid a crisis of confidence that saw large-scale depositor withdrawals
………….the Irish government was forced to deny that it was seeking emergency help from the International Monetary Fund
…….GDP growth could plunge to minus 4% in 2009 against growth of 6% two years ago
………wage inflation has been running out of control and today stands at 20% above the European norm
http://tinyurl.com/2ezw7z
and a second russian financial crisis in 10 years???? ouch
Russians hoard cash as fear of crisis takes hold
Muscovites are hoarding thousands of dollars in safety deposit boxes, as fears intensify that Russia is teetering on the brink of a full-blown economic crisis, after the government devalued the rouble five times in six days.
Kettle you have mail
I’d be worried if they were hoarding their rubles and spending their dollars, not the other way around.
“a better question: does ireland avoid a downgrade before feb 31”
kettle,
Now that’s a tough one. There are only 28 days in Feb.
SL
you have mail
I’m looking out my bldg towards 2 towers. The sign on the top, facing NY; 77 Hudson.com.
BC Bob – You’ve got a nice view… ;)
lost,
got it and passed the idea to SL. thanks
————————-
Bob,
hmmm 31st might be a problem then.
in my opinion, the main problem has been intermediation (on all levels).
ex. you live next to me, you send your omney to manhattan for 3%, i want a loan, i have to goto manhattan and get a loan for 17% on the same money
Agree. It’s already being done. Check out prosper.com. Of course there is always room for improvement. Banks think are heavyweights and can influence policy and have tax dollars used to support their existence. In fact they are heavyweights, unfortunately heavy-weighted economic dinosaurs. So people say that the end of the banking system is a bad thing. It’s just a spark to ignite innovation to something possibly better. See RE101. Something positive. ;)
about firearm training..
i haven’t taken a civilian course before, so it may be a standard in all courses.
in any case, if looken at a safty course, make sure they teach you how to take apart & put back together again your sidearm. If not, i would pass that one up.
There is more to a firearm that keeping it pointed downrange and squeeze a trigger.
Keeping a well lubed & well clean goes along way.
don’t need hollow points for practice.
SAS
Women’s Firearm Classes –
Citizen’s club in Princeton offers a Women’s Day at the Range in August. All day training that rotates between rifle, pistol and shotgun/archery. All hands-on, really great instruction. Best of all, it is FREE for newcomers.
Langhorne Rod and Gun club in PA offers Women’s Defensive Firearm classes. About $100 (for all day) the instructor is fantastic (Blackwater trained.) I’ve taken it before and will again.
and here comes wave 2, commercial RE…
Loans threaten Minnesota community banks
For much of the past two years, Minnesota’s community banks have seemed to escape the credit crisis engulfing the nation’s largest banks. Until now. Dozens of Minnesota banks have entered the new year on shaky footing, hobbled with millions of dollars of commercial real estate loans going sour at an alarming pace. Several analysts predict that some community banks could fail in the state this year, as the slump that began in the housing market spreads to business loans backed by land and buildings.
“Any bank that has a sizable book of commercial real estate loans could have serious problems in 2009,” predicted Jamie Peters, a bank analyst at Morningstar in Chicago.
http://www.startribune.com/business/37730429.html
and don’t forget your hearing protection:
i double up, use plugs & muffs.
SAS
Ascent of Money 01 1/5
SAS,
yes and yes. field strip and hearing protection. is it wrong that i find the smell of gun powder relaxing?
Did anyone watch the Niall Ferguson Ascent of Money show on PBS?
Jmac – Yeah saw it. Was he really the one to coin the phrase Chimerica?
vodka (83)-
Much like March Madness, it’s nice to see that any and all participants are welcome in the race to the bottom.
“…the International Monetary Fund called for devaluation as part of a €7.5bn joint rescue for Latvia. Such adjustments are crucial in IMF deals. They allow countries to claw their way back to health without suffering perma-slump.”
“use plugs & muffs.”
Earprotection make sense but how does one of those big fuzzy things for your hands help?
“Perma-slump”. Is that in the OED?
BC (93)-
Erin go broke. Looks like it’s time for another potato famine.
grim (94)-
I don’t want an O bobble head (why bother, when chances are we’ll get to see his head bobbling nightly on the news?).
I DO want a Dwight Schrute bobble head, though.
-Estimates for tax revenues, released Friday by the Nelson A. Rockefeller Institute of Government at the State University of New York system, cover the 36 states that have released fourth-quarter tax data. The states suffered declines in most sources of revenue. Personal-income taxes eked out a 0.1% gain, based largely on income earned before the recession deepened. Sales taxes were down 6.5% in the quarter compared with a year earlier as consumers cut back. Corporate income taxes fell 22.1%, reflecting falling profits.
-Arizona’s state treasurer said this month that the state could soon be out of money by February,
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB123215579593492397.html
ouch!
In her best year as a mortgage broker, Laura Glick says she made “six figures.” This week she was one of more than 1,200 people attending a job fair and applying for one of 150 jobs paying between $7 and $12 an hour at a new Kohl’s department store in a Denver, Colorado, suburb.
http://www.cnn.com/2009/LIVING/worklife/01/15/job.mob/index.html?eref=rss_mostpopular
most ironic thing i saw was during the first w year people were waiving chinese-made flags to protest against chinese products after the pilot incidents.
>grim says:
January 19, 2009 at 12:19 pm
Wondering how much Chinese-made crap will be peddled at the inauguration…
Saw a photo online of something that looked like a bobble-head Obama.
Oh bother.
Am I wrong to be upset about 2 million Americans waiving Chinese-made flags at the inauguration?
Inaugural lunch menu looks damn tasty though.
http://bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601088&sid=aBZB26f8BFAk&refer=home
[62] kettle,
Blind and disabled people rioting???
Seems like a bad joke, or a great subject for a Gary Larson cartoon.
“the cost of preparations for the swearing-in and luncheon was $1.2 million. ”
Where’s the recession?
N.J. affordable housing payment plan shifts — again
by The Associated Press
Sunday January 18, 2009, 1:09 PM
Just six months after advocates for the poor heralded a new law to create more affordable housing in New Jersey, parts of it may be set aside because of the slumping economy.
Gov. Jon Corzine has called for a one-year moratorium on a fee charged to developers of commercial real estate. He said the moratorium on the fee, used to fund housing for low- and moderate-income people, would spur economic development.
It was expected the 2.5 percent fee, created last year, would generate $160 million per year. But in six months, it’s raised only about $5 million, according to state Sen. Raymond Lesniak, D-Elizabeth.
“It doesn’t work, it hasn’t worked and it’s not working,” Lesniak said. “Two-point-five percent, 10 percent, 20 percent of nothing is nothing.”
Lesniak is crafting a bill that would waive the fee, and a state requirement for each municipality to use money generated by the fee to create affordable housing, for one year. The concept has the support of key legislative leaders in addition to the governor.
For more than two decades, the state had let towns pay other towns to fulfill their affordable housing obligation. Last year, the Legislature ended that practice in a shift that affordable housing advocates saw as a major advance.
Instead, money for subsidized housing was to come largely from the 2.5 percent fee charged to developers of commercial property. Previously, towns had been allowed to set their own fees for developers. Some declined to do so; others charged more than 2.5 percent.
But there’s been a big problem: Since the fee was standardized, real estate development has fallen sharply.
Affordable housing advocates don’t like the idea of suspending the development fee. They say it’s confounding that the state would slow action on providing housing for low- and moderate-income people in a time when there is a growing need for housing.
“We are opposed to a moratorium and don’t understand why this is the first thing to be cut,” said Kevin Walsh, associate director of the Cherry Hill-based Fair Share Housing Center. “Holding steady is one thing, but cutting the resources available to help folks with shelter is bad.”
Affordable housing has been a contentious issue in the state since the state Supreme Court found in a 1975 ruling in Southern Burlington County NAACP v. Mount Laurel that towns could not use their zoning to exclude the poor. Since then, the court has gone further, finding that towns have an obligation to provide for homes for lower-income people.
http://www.nj.com/news/index.ssf/2009/01/post_56.html
After thinking about my RBS interview. Here is a mention of some of the notable places I have interviewed and luckily did not pursue the job…
Enron
Long Term Capital Mgmt
The places I have actually worked have done fairly well.
ouch!
In her best year as a mortgage broker, Laura Glick says she made “six figures.” This week she was one of more than 1,200 people attending a job fair and applying for one of 150 jobs paying between $7 and $12 an hour at a new Kohl’s department store in a Denver, Colorado, suburb.
Shows you the skill required to be a mortgage broker.
Ask the donors who paid for it, from Reuters:
Battered Wall St tops Obama inaugural donors: study
Wall Street may be bruised and battered, but it still donated more money than any other U.S. industry to President-elect Barack Obama’s inaugural festivities on Tuesday, a study has found.
The Center for Responsive Politics said executives of finance, insurance and real estate companies and their family members gave $7.1 million to Obama’s inaugural committee.
Top donors from the world of high finance included George Soros, Ronald Perelman and David Shaw, the center said.
Bankers and hedge fund managers will mingle with Hollywood stars and Silicon Valley high-technology titans at the swearing-in ceremony for the 44th president, the parade down Pennsylvania Avenue and the balls and parties that follow.
…
“While Americans are hoping for real change in Washington, many deep-pocketed donors are hoping money still buys them access and influence,” said Sheila Krumholz, executive director of the nonpartisan money-in-politics watchdog group.
“If history is any guide, these wealthy individuals, as well as the corporations and industries they represent, may more than recoup their investment in Obama through presidential appointments, favorable legislation and government contracts,” Krumholz said.
They should have gone with modern classics.
Like Hormel chili.
[130] bi
That reminds me of something I did once, where I learned a valuable lesson on the theatrics of government.
Ever see pictures or video from the South Lawn when the POTUS is welcoming some head of state? There is always a respectful crowd there, clapping and (often) waving small flags?
This crowd is made of of federal workers from surrounding buildings. You get security-vetted and then ushered in to a back area to be part of the cast of thousands.
Seems like a great thing to participate in if you don’t know any better. I was in the one for the chinese premier when Clinton hosted him in 1999. We were given really cheap flags to wave, and I noted at that time that the chinese flag seemed to be better made than the US flag.
I am not one to be ga-ga over being in the presence of powerful people (I was but outgrew it by then), so I was bored stiff. I thought the entire experience sucked and vowed never to do one of these events again. I pitched the ceremony program and the chinese flag in the trash. I gave the little US flag to my daughter (who probably destroyed it in a nonofficial manner since I haven’t seen it in some time).
“After thinking about my RBS interview.”
On a positive note you have move out of NJ. Now you’are stuck.
“Battered Wall St tops Obama inaugural donors: study”
We donated a boat load of cash…
[135] hard place
LOL! I love it.
Here is my list of places where I sought employment, only to be glad it never panned out:
Lehman
E-Trade Bank
the OTS
Citigroup
Anyone willing to help?
“Barack 0bama issued a “call to service” to Americans a day after telling hundreds of thousands, gathered for a concert to celebrate his inauguration, that he needs their help to confront the nation’s problems.”
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aIT8Fk6vO6Mw&refer=home
OTS? We’re going to have a bull market in banking regulation, might have been a good move.
[89]grim
“a survivalist militia group”
a.k.a. The Gang That Couldn’t Shoot Straight”
(apologies to Jimmy Breslin)
[144] grim
maybe not. Have you been following regulatory news lately? OTS has been taking it on the chin for some time, and got hammered over its handling of Indymac.
BTW, OTS was created from the wreckage of the regulator that brought us the S&L crisis.
Anyone willing to help?
I’m game.
How about a weekend GTG at a Habitat for Humanity job site?
Anyone want to join me?
147 grim
sure
[70] grim
A good friend who lives in Watchung and goes there regularly told me that Ray’s closed. Apparently, they sold the building and figured it was a good time to get out of the business.
Haven’t verified this for myself.
Haven’t verified this for myself.
You know, I drove by there a week or two ago and they had some signs hanging. Said something to the effect of “Range and Police Sales”. Could very well be the case. Too bad, they had a decent range.
Nom –
Oh yeah, almost forgot I interviewed at Lehman and Bear Stearns too. Guess I should count Merrill and BofA, but they are still standing. Barely…
Surprisingly, I never got an interview from Citibank.
Wonder if Mike Milken will get pardoned this afternoon.
Surprisingly, I never got an interview from Citibank.
Interviewed at Citi for a contract gig a long time ago.
I interviewed at MS (via overseas teleconference). Still makes me smile..
fun comment form another site:
American bailouts (already spent + formally committed + promised by the incoming Obama adminstration) stand at about $3 trillion.
The 3 TRILLION dollar bailout , spent directly, could purchase ALL of the following list:
1. A spanking new Toyota Prius for every household in America. ($20,000@ X 100 million = $2 trillion) (10% dealers’ discount, hey?)
2. A mile of high speed electric rail for every mile of the existing Interstate Highway system. (40,000 miles X $5 million per mile = $200 billion)
3. A residential size (3 KW) photovoltaic system on every roof of every house in every suburb between San Francisco and Bangor, Maine ($8,000@ X 40 Million = $320 Billion)
4. A $10 Million tax free cash bribe to each member of the US House and Senate to pass the necessary legislation… we’ve already established what kind of service they provide, now we’re just haggling over price. ($10 Million @ X 535 = $535 Billion.)
A nice little fringe benefit would be the number of jobs created by the magnitude of infrastructure build out.
Spam
Saw your netroots list from the weekend
You forgot the following things to blame on Bush:
407: Solar flare radio interference
408: The sinking of the Andrea Doria
409: The Thailand tsunami
410: The sinking of the Edmund Fitzgerald
411: The deaths of those 8 snowmobilers in Canada.
Ha, I’m joking–Netroot types don’t blame Bush for the Andrea Doria.
Wonder if many others will get a pardon, after all Pelosi and a few others with considerable power in Congres what investigations into the Justice Dept.
If Bush should wave his magic pardon wand, he should pardon the thousand or so ex-felons who enlisted in the Military and served in Iraq etc.
Sean,
You are right. Bush should make a few pardons now. There will be a witch hunt once he is out of office.
Sean: Yes, Bush will pardon anyone in exchange for $500k, including members of terrorist organisation who killed americans. Then Bush steal all WH furniture, keys to WH computers and instruct the staff to wreck everything..Oh, I forget this wasn’t about Clinton.
They are trying to get Ted Stevens pardoned at the last minute too, I think they should pardon Larry Craig since he really does have a wide stance.
#59
Jersey Jim says:
January 19, 2009 at 2:04 pm
Sean,
You are right. Bush should make a few pardons now. There will be a witch hunt once he is out of office.
Typical of the current incarnation of the Republican party, which doesn’t believe in personal accountability. People like you are the reason this country is headed down the toilet.
162. SC
ha, i haven’t even lived in your country for the past 25 years.
also i’m independent you a$$.
147/Grim-
Habitat GTG = yes, count me in.
Also, regarding Obama commerative items. I picked up the Chia Obama. Figure I’m helping the environment and celebrating the inauguration all in one fell swoop.
http://www.chiaobama.com/
curious – how much do people think they’ll need to retire when they hit 50 or 60 or 70?
$2 million in the 401k?
so if you’re married, then $4 million?
pricedOut says:
January 19, 2009 at 9:19 am
I’m POSITIVE that it’s going to get worse before it gets better.
excellent
here’s something positive:
Bush commutes sentences of former US border agents
http://www.breitbart.com/article.php?id=D95QC5OO0&show_article=1
yikes: ” how much do people think they’ll need to retire when they hit 50 or 60 or 70? ”
About 3 million ameros..
$2M in 401k is not much, especially given the estimated tax rates after O’s wealth transfer. $3M in 401k and $1.5M in taxable sounds about right (given what is realistic to achieve), in addition to paid off house (as we know from NAR, this is the way to fund your retirement anyway).
Unfortunately, US exit tax kicks in much before that so better to come up with your own wealth transfer program to free world.
NJ exit tax will probably be even higher. I fully support 100% NJ exit tax.
From HousingWire:
Refi Pickups Likely to Be Limited, Deutsche Bank Says
For all the hullabaloo now being directed towards a nascent refinancing boom among the mortgage origination community, evidence seems to be mounting to suggest that much of that refi demand won’t likely translate into funded loans. Tighter underwriting standards and a large number of borrowers with homes worth less than they’d hoped for seem likely to keep many applicants from successfully refinancing their loans, researchers at Deutsche Bank suggested in a note to clients late Friday.
DB researchers Mustafa Chowdhruy and Marcus Hule projected that prepayments will reach roughly 20 percent — well short of the 60 percent prepayment level observed during a historic refi boom in 2003, and not enough to revive a sagging economy.
“Primarily this is the result of falling credit quality of mortgages due to declining home values. LTV ratios have gone up, making many borrowers ineligible for a new refinanced loan,” the analysts said. “In addition, borrowers’ FICO scores have deteriorated with the increase in the jobless rate and its effects on the timeliness of borrowers’ payments. Thus the effect on consumption is not likely to be substantial enough to revive the economy.”
Buttressing this view, sources in the primary market have suggested in recent weeks that the current fallout rate between applications and actual loans closed is well north of 50 percent.
Grim (131)
Me from 8/29 #26 and 8/30/08 – #258 8:03 AM
“All the wines were reasonable (except maybe the Duckhorn.) I asked about the Goldeneye pinot we had at the last party ( it had to be memorable or I wouldn’t know the name) and it is expensive but they said there is a Migration knockoff that is outstanding.”
It took me a while but I knew my friends told me about another wine when I inquired about the Goldeneye…Migration.
Hey – The world may be falling down around me – but …we make some good wine here in California…
Off to lunch…
in periods of hyperinflation, alcohol has been a commodity worthy of a store of value. Talk to anyone who lived through the currency collapse in the Soviet Union. They’ll tell you that you could trade Vodka for a lot of things.
Surprised that Hank didn’t spend a bit of cash today. Though for sure that there would be a last minute surprise.
Get on your boots? HMMM.
http://music.msn.com/music/article.aspx?news=348382>1=28102
[173] ben
That is why I am stocking wine and booze instead of beans and bullets (well, some beans and bullets).
My main rule for stockpiling is that I will stockpile what I use, and use what I stockpile, regardless of what happens in the world.
in periods of hyperinflation, alcohol has been a commodity worthy of a store of value
Cool. I just bought a home brewing kits yesterday. Now I can be just like the fed and print (or brew) my own money.
[173] ben,
A second rule for stockpiling is to consider timing aspects. The main subrule here is that you should stockpile anything that will be made:
1. Unavailable (illegal or restricted), or
2. Riduculously expensive
in the foreseeable future.
This includes ammo, guns, liquor, and tobacco products–these will either be made illegal or expensive through restrictions, taxes or both.
[177] renting
If you are fermenting in a glass carboy, do yourself a favor and (1) get a vent tube that won’t stop up from sediment and (2) a tub for the carboy in case it does.
178 nom, you mean like children’s clothing?
has anyone here noticed that they’re going to require lead testing for anything marketed/sold to children? even second hand?
makes me think my local goodwill might no longer be a good source for baby gear.
http://www.rallycongress.com/make-second-hand-kids-clothes-legal-/
“This includes ammo, guns, liquor, and tobacco products–these will either be made illegal or expensive through restrictions, taxes or both.”
The last time the government made alcohol illegal, the business of brewing boomed. The beautiful thing about the fermentation process is you can’t stop it because it happens naturally. My apple cider turned into alcohol the other day.
The same goes for tobacco. Marijuana is already illegal and has been for the better part of the past 100 years. That hasn’t stopped it from being the #1 cash crop in several states.
Then Bush steal all WH furniture, keys to WH computers and instruct the staff to wreck everything..Oh, I forget this wasn’t about Clinton.
Constantly repeats lies…what a noble trait.
“Cool. I just bought a home brewing kits yesterday. Now I can be just like the fed and print (or brew) my own money.”
no, that’s called producing wealth, and it’s what a real economy is built on. The more we produce, the wealthier we become. Money’s function is simply to establish a medium of exchange to make trade more efficient. When they debase money, it makes trade less efficient.
“My main rule for stockpiling is that I will stockpile what I use, and use what I stockpile, regardless of what happens in the world.”
Consider seeds. 1 tiny little seed can turn into dozens of pounds of fruit and vegetables. They are an incredible store of value that conveniently gets overlooked.
here’s something positive:
Bush commutes sentences of former US border agents
Glad they didn’t get pardoned. Would’ve set a bad example.
“U.S. stimulus not enough, TARP bailout misused: Soros”
At the same time, the $700 billion financial bailout known as TARP for Troubled Assets Relief Program had been carried out in a “haphazard and capricious way” and “without proper planning,” he said.
“Unfortunately it was misused and the way it was done has poisoned the well. It has created tremendous ill will toward putting up more money,” Soros said.
“If they are successful…the deflationary pressures will be replaced by the specter of inflation and the authorities will have to drain the excess money from the economy almost as quickly as they pumped it in. Of the two operations the second one is going to be, politically, even more difficult than the first,” he said.
http://www.reuters.com/article/ousiv/idUSTRE50I4XZ20090119
Yaaaargh!!!
Get back to work!!!
And by the way:
If you don’t like the new president, can you at LEAST give him some time and a VALID REASON to piss you off?
At this point, President-elect Obama has done NOTHING to affect your personal life any more so than any other US SENATOR has done.
So stop howling about how you’ve been “wronged” or “done in” or will be dead from our new president in “less than a week”…
If you believe you are better off under (any) republican, versus a democrat, then you should be grateful for you and yours. Because, obviously, you’ve got “stuff” to lose… like your housekeeper, your gardener, your personal driver and 2 vacation homes.
Remember:
You work WITH Democrats.
You work FOR republicans.
Gotta go.
Be back later.
Very busy at work….
BC,
the UK is gettin ghit hard
UK bonds tumble as Government admits no cap on taxpayer risk in banks bailout
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/newsbysector/banksandfinance/4289426/Banks-bailout-Bonds-tumble-as-Government-admits-no-cap-on-taxpayer-risk.html
BC,
the UK is getting hit hard
UK bonds tumble as Government admits no cap on taxpayer risk in banks bailout
-Bonds tumbled as the Government admitted there is not yet any cap on the risk taxpayers will have to bear as a result of its plan to insure banks from billions of pounds of losses on bad loans.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/newsbysector/banksandfinance/4289426/Banks-bailout-Bonds-tumble-as-Government-admits-no-cap-on-taxpayer-risk.html
————————————–
and BC, here is the coming ireland implosion
Help Ireland or it will exit euro, economist warns
A leading Irish economist has called on Dublin to threaten withdrawal from the euro unless Europe’s big powers do more to rescue Ireland’s economy. “This is war: countries have to defend themselves,” said David McWilliams, a former official at the Irish central bank. “It is essential that we go to Europe and say we have a serious problem. We say, either we default or we pull out of Europe,” he told RTE radio. “If Ireland continues hurtling down this road, which is close to default, the whole of Europe will be badly affected. The credibility of the euro will be badly affected. Then Spain might default, Italy and Greece,” he said. Mr McWilliams, a former UBS director and now prominent broadcaster, has broken the ultimate taboo by evoking threats to precipitate an EMU crisis, which would risk a chain reaction across the eurozone’s southern belt, where yield spreads on state bonds are already flashing warning signals.
Jersey Jim says:
January 19, 2009 at 2:12 pm
also i’m independent you a$$.
No you’re not. You’re “independent” the same way Bill O’Reilly is. Or isn’t.
“You work WITH Democrats.
You work FOR republicans”
alot to learn…. alot to learn.
SAS
SAS
do you like the sig or the glock better form your days as a secret agent?
Dems & Reps are 2 heads of same snake.
have fun at the biggest illusion tomorrow called the inaguration.
you think you got a choice?
change?
lol
pass me the rest of my soda.
SAS
sig.
anyday, anytime.
SAS
i never was a fan of “Hard Glock Cafe”
SAS
“You work WITH Democrats.
You work FOR republicans”
Haha! The way I see it, if you work (i.e. have a job), you work with Republicans and for Dems (i.e. welfare).
Re: MLS# 2608093.
Was this previously sold? Looks like it’s still showing bank owned in the county records. Previously they listed this house around the $680’s in the early winter. Now they are listing it at $889k. New seller, or new strategy?
“Help Ireland or it will exit euro, economist warns”
The prospects of Euro collapsing are real. Yes, it might have protected Iceland better, but I wonder if the whole Greater FrancoGermania project will see its demise in the next few years. Germans would have to pay everything in anycase. Spain, Ireland, Greece and Italy are bankcrupt. Belgium will split up, either violently or less violenty between Dutch-speaking and French-speaking regions. Hamas troops, much like SA troops few decades ago are now marching openly around Europe, shouting slogans not seen since late 1930s, firebombing jew-owned shops and firebombing synagogues. In the end, US troops are needed there to save the day.
History repeats itself.
Has anybody mentioned that Jamil sucks today?
http://www.pbs.org/wnet/ascentofmoney/featured/watch-full-program-the-ascent-of-money/24/
video THE ASCENT OF MONEY, Niall Ferguso
IS california going to be a model for NJ?
California was ground zero for RE speculation. Most of the option ARM’s were originated in this state. While NJ may not have been as speculative, Calif does show the range of possibilities.
From Bloomberg…
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=a9tuBSHCY5JM&refer=home
First paragraph of story. Bold my emphasis.
Southern California home sales rose 51 percent in December as a surge in foreclosures pushed prices of single-family houses and condominiums down from a year earlier, MDA DataQuick said.
A total of 19,926 new and existing houses and condos sold last month in Los Angeles, Riverside, San Diego, Ventura, San Bernardino and Orange counties, up from 13,240 a year earlier, the San Diego-based research company said today in a statement. The median home price in the region fell 35 percent to $278,000.
#199. Clotpoll
Jamil might suck but I do hope the Euro goes away. Once Germany switched from the DM there was Euro inflation and everything got quite expensive. Italy used to be dirt cheap, now it is quite expensive. I think they will prop the Euro up no matter what happens. Politics.
This is more relevant on Housing Bubble
The Ascent of Money 05 Safe As Houses 1/5
i missed it, why does Jamil suck?
he seems like a decent bloke.
SAS
Can anyone tell me the status of NJMLS #2829282 ?
Thanks in advance…
Jay
sas (204)-
He’s tedious and myopic. Also occasionally sinks into xenophobia and race-baiting.
Other than that, he’s delightful.
18 hours and counting folks. I had a weird experience this afternoon. Weekend or holiday one can always count on being able to contact folks at the White House. Today, the phones just ring, and ring, and ring. It really is OVER.
Now, fasten you seatbelts, it’s going to be a bumpy 4 years.
Clotpoll,
come now, let bygones be bygones.
tis a free exchange of thoughts & ideas.
no?
SAS
Clot:
“He’s tedious and myopic. Also occasionally sinks into xenophobia and race-baiting.”
I don’t mind being called tedious and myopic by internet trolls, but xenophobia and race-baiting is over the top and tells more about you than me.
I hate illegal activity, including illegal aliens, maybe some day you’ll too understand the difference.
#11 Shore Guy
I thought I would get you with that one :)
rent at 177:
when you start to brew “all grain”, let me know. Great place in Upstate NY (north county malt group) that I bought 55lbs of malted barley from. Good prices, great shipping policy.
Have my first all grain batch in the keg for past 5 weeks. When I finish the keg in my fridge, can’t wait to try the all grain batch.
He’s tedious and myopic. Also occasionally sinks into xenophobia and race-baiting.
Other than that, he’s delightful.
That seems pretty accurate.
I’ve worked for Citigroup on 2 continents.
Was interviewed by ML and Credit Suisse.
Plus worked for a vendor in Pharma.
Re: home brew
Northern Brewer has a $7.99 per order flat shipping option.
Even if you just go with a kit and use malt extract instead of sugar, you’ll get great results.
“I hate illegal activity, including illegal aliens, maybe some day you’ll too understand the difference”
Jamil, then i have to admit, you may not like me. i have a long history.
i don’t agree with your distain with what is termed “illegal”, cause that term is a slippery slope.
however, do like the exchange of ideas.
and Clot’s input is valuable as well.
lets leave the guns at the door, as we can all agree its going to get alot worse before it gets better.
sadly, we are ALL bagholders now.
even if ye didn’t buy RE.
SAS
I can’t believe this, some douchecicle neighbor is actually using a snow blower right now. There was maybe 2 inches of snow at the most here.
grim says:
January 19, 2009 at 10:12 am
Isn’t it a matter of how low is good?
Of course it is, but I would posit that home prices will not fall below the floor that is dictated by those fundamentals. As low as necessary, but no lower. The difference here is that the market dictates this level, not politicians.
If current owners can’t sell and move up because of being underwater then they are more likely to stay put. First time buyers won’t have starter houses to buy.
Non-issue. The group of “trapped” underwater owners is a small part of the big picture. Those who aren’t can move up or down with the same ease as before. Tide raises and lowers all ships. While my starter home may have fallen in price, so did the move up home. The difference between those has always been maintained to some extent. A move up or down buyer (not underwater) is only concerned with the difference, not the absolute values of either property.
I mean, isn’t housing a system where people are continually selling and buying? If more people stay in their current houses doesn’t that disrupt the economics of the system?
The trading of used homes adds little, if any, economic growth to an economy. What value is added when a used home is resold? The only real economic growth is based on the industry focused on the sale and financing of these homes, a very small piece of the economy. The construction of new homes is an entirely different animal, which does add to economic growth. As does remodeling, to some extent, although I’d argue that remodeling and refurbishment of older housing stock would continue regardless of the status of the resale market.
damn, Grim. it’s too bad you don’t comment here more. fantastic stuff.
interesting chatter earlier about the starter home vs the move up home.
3 years ago, after a successful flip, the wife and i looked hard and bergen county. thanks to this blog (and laughable NJ taxes) we passed.
friends bought starter places – one guy a cape, 5 others condos, apartments or townhouses (only one in NJ, one in PA).
ALL of them are now stuck. for at least five years. at least. they can’t trade up simply because of the underwater factor.
we decided, ‘why not save up and skip the starter house, and find something we could stay in for 30 years?’ the only concessions: we had to rent for three more years, we had to be frugal for three years, and there was the ‘come check out our new place’ factor.
we close on a place very very soon, and are putting down 35%. house is slightly out of our original price range, but putting down more $ made it manageable.
anyone else considering saving and skipping the starter step?
sas 215: I just did everything according to the rules (twice for me) when I entered and paid a lot of fees so I get sometimes a bit carried away with this..The current system sucks big time, when DHS is denying entry and deporting 80 year old grandmothers from poland with perfectly valid visas (suspecting they might stay too long) while allowing free entry or catch-and-release policy otherwise (including people from countries with long history of terrorism). But I know family issues may make this more personal and complicated. Anyway, this is a policy issue only for me..back to regularly scheduled programming..
grim,
you never did respond to my post @ 40.
cat got your tongue bloke, or are you doing that head stand drinking that beer at the same time.
:)
SAS
Can anyone tell me the status of NJMLS #2829282 ?
Thanks in advance…
Expired at $1.1m, down from the originally listed $1.489m. They couldn’t get it rented for $7000, or $6000, or even $5000.
474 days on market? Ouch.
you never did respond to my post @ 40.
Still thinking about it. Disintermediation has been a successful strategy in a number of industries, complex to understand how it could work here. I’ve followed Grameen and microbanking models for a bit, and I think, to some extent, some of those factors can apply here.
Recession is NOW hitting home now for me.
Father-in-Law laid off today, 60 yrs old,worked in Global Logistics and has a decent mortgage nut with lots of expenses, don’t think they can make it too long perhaps a year or two without a bailout.
I feel like the US Treasury now, implicit guarantee rings home when you have to give a pep talk about bailouts and guarantees. Bailout ofcourse being me and my wife.
I also have to show up to Jury Duty tomorrow. Hopefully I will get a nice short trial that won’t keep me idle for a month.
Good times ahead folks.
Cheers (yes I am drinking on Monday)
Sean
“I hate illegal activity, including illegal aliens, maybe some day you’ll too understand the difference.”
Dude, you really need to chill out. It is disturbing to hate human beings. People like Hitler comes to mind.
HC
“I hate illegal activity, including illegal aliens, maybe some day you’ll too understand the difference.”
Dude, you really need to chill out. It is disturbing to hate human beings. People like Hitler comes to mind.
HC
“I can’t believe this, some douchecicle neighbor is actually using a snow blower right now. There was maybe 2 inches of snow at the most here.”
If the snow blower bother you so much, did you offer to shovel their driveway for them?
HC
barbara 216
“douchecicle”
that splashing sound?
…me spewing tea (ostensible touted to aid cough — methinks code1ne might be better…) all over my monitor….
too funny!
sl [for the love of christ, I’d swear I have pertussis!]
227. sl
I’m very Jersey, a lifer ;)
grim,
Habitat for Humanity? Count us in. Whatwith hubby being a carpenter and all…we’re there….I’ll even bring grub.
sl
226.
why would I offer to shovel a driveway that only needs to be swept with a broom by the 20 something guy in perfect health who lives there? Troll much?
sl (227)-
Codeine is appropriate at all hours, for all kinds of functions.
Oops…back to GG.
“why would I offer to shovel a driveway that only needs to be swept with a broom”
there you go, be a good neighbor and help them with your flying broom.
HC
Grim,
“Disintermediation has been a successful strategy in a number of industries”
agreed, but i believe its outdated. buisness models have shelf lives too.
Like brand omama, people don’t realize they were sold a brand.
“complex to understand how it could work here”
revamp the way of thinking, have a stock in a town, the safer, cleaner & more productive a town, the more their stock is worth. like an idex.
make sense? i know i’m not very clear.
SAS
i really need to start uploading stuff.
these blogs have their communication limitations.
SAS
sl,
i sent you ans e-mail, let me know if you are interested
clot, i know you’re watching Gossip Girl … uh, blake lively much?
ket, o hai, uv got mail!
sl
kettle1 says:
January 19, 2009 at 4:43 pm
SAS
do you like the sig or the glock better form your days as a secret agent?
no secret agent here, but im partial to the sig. i believe cops carry glocks, but the one i was talking to the day i picked mine up said he wised they had the sig.
it’s a trigger thing …
would be interested in a chance to help work on a home for Habitat for Humanity, if that ever comes to fruition.
218 yikes,
yes. (it’s why i’m obsessed with the yard-size. i plan on planting fruit tree saplings and picking the fruit for my grandkids)
but i also wonder if it would make sense to continue to rent our primary residence but buy a summer place. husband’s job requires an easy commute to manhattan. i like the idea of a small beach cottage in connecticut, paid for with cash.
alia, 240
….gawd… psychic or something???
Was just discussing this with hubby….i’m getting cold feet about buying in nj at all.
Other than we need a school for our kid – i’m having a hard time committing to buying here… was looking at the map to see if buying a vacation place instead would be better in the long run….
my indecision is killing me… augh.
sl
Kettle,
FYI, Rays on Rte 22 closed around Thanksgiving.
Check out his link for pistol training:
http://www.nrahq.org/education/Training/basictraining.asp
So I might find a deal if I look under one of ya’ll *ss cheeks?
sl: in a way i’m lucky (ha!) that we don’t have a big enough down payment to buy *anywhere* that’s reasonable yet. no decision possible.
otherwise, i’d be biting my nails to the quick. :}
it’s why the compound idea (in the happy access to resources like fresh air version, not the survivalist version) is appealing. i get a claim to some dirt, but i don’t have to live there year round.
Drivel coming off the “Deal” websites is that Bed Bath & Beyond will no longer accept expired coupons effective Feb09 (or some date around then). I am skeptical of the validity of this news. It seems like it would only serve to shrink the amount of time BB&B remains in business before declaring Chapter 7/11.
It does, however, bring to light some of the asinine thinking behind the run up in Best Buy’s stock price when Circuit City threw in the towel. The brilliance goes something like this: Best Buy’s primary competition was Circuit City and now with CC gone, BB will be the only game in town and sales will skyrocket. Of course, the dolts who buy into this theory have never been to a Wal-mart.
And so goes BB&B with Linens N Things six feet under. No more competition for useless overpriced crap made in China that no one really needs. Never mind that you can get the same cr*p in Target for less money (or Wal-mart for EVEN less money). BB&B has no more competition (so say the blockheads) so they can get rid of the coupon incentives.
What kills me are the people who post follow-ups saying “Thanks for the news, I have a stack of coupons on my desk and now I will be sure to use them up this weekend.”
…. and that is when it hit me. This change in policy has got be put out there by BB&B Corporate in the hopes of drumming up a nice spike in January sales to try and save their bottom line for the year (which ends Feb I believe).
Once February is upon us, they will decide they are not moving ahead with the new policy and “allow” people to continue to use the expired coupons stacked up in their glove boxes.
You heard it here first.
I couldn’t believe this when I saw it in an article. I just had to share:
Retailers overhaul business as consumers pull back
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20090119/ap_on_bi_ge/retailing_makeover
“The days of the $300 jeans are gone”
seneca,
makes sense. I’m saving a good one for a Dyson Animal. They still haven’t restocked
“anyone else considering saving and skipping the starter step?”
Yikes – This is basically our strategy. We would only buy a place that we will keep for 10-20 years. However, I will only put as much down as needed to secure a decent rate unless I am assured we are somewhere near the very bottom. My better half is now looking for jobs in Princeton (she is currently in the City), if she lands something we will be buying in Bucks. I just can’t see myself ever buying in NJ.
so, what did people do with their profits, when they were maken money?
SAS
just got a 5$ footlong at subway.
not bad.
i know, i will have cancer in the morning, but hey.. them the breaks.
SAS
re: #244 – Seneca re: “it would only serve to shrink the amount of time BB&B remains in business before declaring Chapter 7/11”.
Haven’t you heard or perhaps you don’t peruse the balance sheets. Only companies with ZERO debt will survive.
re: #248 – SaS “o, what did people do with their profits, when they were maken money?”
Just gave the father in law an implicit guarantee on his debt. I expect my brother in law (home remodeling) and perhaps my brother (medical industry) the same guarantees by the end of 2009.
Money well spent, any other way will be nobody around to take care of me and mine when we are old and gray.
Yikes – This is basically our strategy. We would only buy a place that we will keep for 10-20 years. However, I will only put as much down as needed to secure a decent rate unless I am assured we are somewhere near the very bottom. My better half is now looking for jobs in Princeton (she is currently in the City), if she lands something we will be buying in Bucks. I just can’t see myself ever buying in NJ.
You’ll never get the assurance of things being near the bottom, and even when we hit, you’re probably looking at 4-5 years of zero gains.
definitely to each his own with buying. we have been flush with cash and the right home with the right size yard-house came on the market, and we jumped. i actually believe that if it had gone on in the spring, there may have been another bidder or two.
i totally hear you on the trees. we’re already making out a spot in the yard for a garden. Bucks has plenty of space – might be too much for some folks. about a mile from our house i saw a couple horses on some guy’s 3 or 4 acre lot. I personally dont care about that … 90 mins from NYC and 45 mins from Philly is fine for me (even though I’m a city guy). Relatively close to AC and close enough to the NJ beaches that maybe we could get a beach house if we play our cards right and save enough.
heh, i grew up in pa. for a while, i lived downwind from a mushroom farm. that was a little too much nature for me. it’s funny to hear people sing the praises of pa when, as teenagers, it was our dream to escape it.
“anyone else considering saving and skipping the starter step?”
We did this years ago. The up side was we paid it off 20 years early and we did not have to move after 5-8 years. The downside is that we would not have bought this house had we been moving from a starter home, and would have gone to a step above this one. That said, we have no intentions of selling this anytime in the next 15 years. It may not be ideal but it is a very nice house in a very nice town and it takes but a small percentage of our income to pay the bills. Not having a millstone around ones neck is a real benefit, especially as the water level rises.
on the eve on the inaguration thought i would dedicate one of my favorite songs to you all:
http://tinyurl.com/8g46f7
I see the bad moon arising.
I see trouble on the way.
I see earthquakes and lightnin.
I see bad times today.
Chorus:
Dont go around tonight,
Well, its bound to take your life,
Theres a bad moon on the rise.
I hear hurricanes ablowing.
I know the end is coming soon.
I fear rivers over flowing.
I hear the voice of rage and ruin.
Chorus
All right!
Hope you got your things together.
Hope you are quite prepared to die.
Looks like were in for nasty weather.
One eye is taken for an eye.
In your ears,
SAS
on the eve on the inaguration thought i would dedicate one of my favorite songs to you all:
http://tinyurl.com/8g46f7
I see the bad moon arising.
I see trouble on the way.
I see earthquakes and lightnin’.
I see bad times today.
Don’t go around tonight,
Well, it’s bound to take your life,
There’s a bad moon on the rise.
I hear hurricanes are blowing.
I know the end is coming soon.
I fear rivers over flowing.
I hear the voice of rage and ruin.
Don’t go around tonight,
Well, it’s bound to take your life,
There’s a bad moon on the rise.
All right!
Hope you got your things together.
Hope you are quite prepared to die.
Looks like we’re in for nasty weather.
One eye is taken for an eye.
Don’t go around tonight,
Well, it’s bound to take your life,
There’s a bad moon on the rise.
Don’t go around tonight,
Well, it’s bound to take your life,
There’s a bad moon on the rise.
In your ears,
SAS
re 214 schabadoo:
http://pivo.northernbrewer.com/nbstore/action/signin
I also buy from them. Pivo in the URL – makes me laugh – means beer in Russian :)
nikkei at almost a 7 handle… hmm
sl
nikkei is almost at a 7 handle — 8025
sl
posts vanishing into thin air.
sl
Hopefully this hasn’t already been posted.
http://www.creditloan.com/blog/uncle-sams-credit-score/
alia says:
January 19, 2009 at 10:53 pm
heh, i grew up in pa. for a while, i lived downwind from a mushroom farm. that was a little too much nature for me. it’s funny to hear people sing the praises of pa when, as teenagers, it was our dream to escape it.
i think that’s the case for everyone who grows up in the burbs
more doses of reality! courtesy of fleckenstein.
http://articles.moneycentral.msn.com/Investing/ContrarianChronicles/real-recovery-wont-be-anytime-soon.aspx
SNIP —–
On top of that, in midweek Goldman Sachs Group (GS, news, msgs) increased estimates on how far home prices might fall. Previously, it thought that housing would perhaps bottom out at the end of 2009, down an additional 15%. Now Goldman thinks the bottom might not be reached until mid-2010 — and that the lows will be 20% to 25% from here. The latter is more in line with my expectations, but I think it’s certainly not what most people had factored in.
Another temporary rally
Now for some thoughts on what this dark macro/corporate landscape could mean for the stock market:
Potentially, the market may continue to be weak and ugly heading into Tuesday’s inauguration. However, after the inauguration — given that company expectations have been lowered and that by then we will likely enter a relatively quiet news period — the stage may be set for a rally that might last longer than the one that just ended.
The probability of that scenario will increase if some economic bounce, however small, begins to take shape. (As weak as the economy appears, the data now suggest it is even weaker.)
Assuming the economy does bounce, a rally could occur sometime later in the first or second quarter — as the bullish contingent seizes on the bounce as a sign the economy is recovering for real (a belief I do not share).
SNIP
sl
Sean/223-
He might want to check out this site. They screen companies hiring practices for retirees and older workers. It would at least give him an idea of what companies would be potential employers:
http://www.retirementjobs.com
Full disclosure: I know someone who is on the board of advisors and have met the founder.
When I bought my home it was very important for me to work with a company with which I felt honored and respected. I used Taylor Morrison because most of my siblings had purchased their homes through them and they are all very happy. I really recommend them, and when you request information from their website (http://dreambig.taylormorrison.com/?utm_source=bc) you’ll be entered in to a contest to win a dream vacation.
Tough times to say the least. But this whole crisis is a combination of poor management of finances at the individual level as well as excessive greed at the corporate level (predatory lending, luring people to agree with an adjustable rate mortgage, not notifying clearly about prepayment penalties etc).