From Bloomberg:
Foreclosure Filings in U.S. Jump 30%, Thwart Prevention Effort
Foreclosure filings in the U.S. climbed 30 percent in February from a year earlier as the worsening economy thwarted efforts by the government and lenders to prevent homeowners from losing property, RealtyTrac Inc. said.
A total of 290,631 homes received a default or auction notice or were seized by the lender, the Irvine, California-based seller of default data said in a statement today. It was the third-highest monthly total in RealtyTrac records dating to 2005. February filings increased 6 percent from January.
“More people have lost their incomes or are underwater on their mortgages, so a new housing plan won’t change those facts by itself,” Barry Eichengreen, professor of economics at the University of California, Berkeley, said in an interview.
…
Some of the top U.S. lenders own as many as 700,000 foreclosed homes they have yet to offer for sale, said Rick Sharga, executive vice president for marketing for RealtyTrac.The banks may be waiting to see how U.S. government plans develop before selling the properties, Sharga said. The lenders and government-owned Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, the two biggest U.S. mortgage financing companies, have already extended temporary foreclosure moratoriums.
The combined percentage of loans in foreclosure or at least one payment past due in the fourth quarter was 11.18 percent, the highest on record, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association in Washington. The percentage of loans 60 days past due and 90 days or more late also were at record levels.
“Many elements are lined up to suggest we’ll have more foreclosure activity in the future, maybe an all-time high,” Sharga said.
…
Arizona ranked third in filings with 18,119, up 88 percent from February 2008.New York had the 35th highest rate and 4,301 filings. New Jersey ranked 29th and had 3,279 filings. Connecticut was 14th with 2,220 filings, RealtyTrac said.
Las Vegas had the highest foreclosure rate among metropolitan areas with populations of 200,000 or more. One in 60 housing units there received a filing, more than seven times the national average.
From Newsday:
Foreclosure cases rise on LI
The number of newly started foreclosure cases on Long Island jumped 54 percent last month from January, although the number of actual lender repossessions of homes continued to fall, according to RealtyTrac, an online marketer of foreclosures.
Long Island had 933 new cases – 607 in Suffolk and 326 in Nassau – compared with 606 in January, the report showed. The rate of new February cases shows Long Island is almost back to where it was a year ago, when lenders opened foreclosure proceedings on 999 homes, according to the data.
In total, Long Island’s foreclosure-related filings, from auction notices to repossessions, grew by 26 percent last month from January, the company said. That was more than the nationwide average increase of almost 6 percent, RealtyTrac reported.
But compared to a year ago, Nassau’s foreclosure-related filings dropped 33 percent last month from a year ago, and Suffolk’s inched up by 1 percent, figures show, compared with the nationwide jump of 30 percent.
…
“Many New York foreclosure proceedings delayed by a new law for an extra 90 days appear to have hit the system in February,” Saccacio said.
From the Star Ledger:
N.J. Attorney General Anne Milgram plans to announce mortgage-fraud charges
New Jersey officials are scheduled today to announce the prosecutions of more than 10 lawyers, mortgage brokers and others suspected of preying on home and property owners.
The Attorney General’s Office said the allegations include charging high fees to those who refinanced mortgages to stave off foreclosure and luring people to buy property under false terms.
Those charged under New Jersey’s racketeering and consumer fraud laws are accused of exploiting victims throughout New Jersey.
From the APP:
Labor Department call centers swamped
Before she hangs up, Michelle Brooks wishes each caller good luck and reminds them that there is still hope. Things will get better. The bad times won’t last.
But from her desk at the state Department of Labor and Workforce’s call center here, she acknowledges that an economic recovery seems far away.
“There’s no letup,” said Brooks, 47, a Monmouth Junction resident who has worked here since 2002. “I’ve never seen anything like this.”
…
The labor market has deteriorated so quickly that the state received 23,187 first-time claims for uninsurance benefits during the first week of January, the most since the week ending Jan. 11, 1992, according to the Labor Department.
…
The crush has been felt at each of the department’s four call centers, where they received a total of 370,000 calls in January, up 164 percent from January last year, said Denise Dusko, manager of the Freehold Township call center.
From the AP:
Foreclosures up 30 percent in February
Despite halts on new foreclosures by several major lenders, the number of households threatened with losing their homes rose 30 percent in February from last year’s levels, RealtyTrac reported Thursday.
Nationwide, nearly 291,000 homes received at least one foreclosure-related notice last month, up 6 percent from January, according to the Irvine, Calif-based company. While foreclosures are highly concentrated in the Western states and Florida, the problem is spreading to states like Idaho, Illinois and Oregon as the U.S. economy worsens.
“It doesn’t bode well,” for the embattled U.S. housing market, said Rick Sharga, vice president for marketing at RealtyTrac, a foreclosure listing firm. “At least for the foreseeable future, it’s going to continue to be pretty ugly.”
“According to budget documents The Inquirer obtained, Nutter will propose two two-year tax increases: a 1 percent increase in the sales tax and a 17 percent increase in property taxes.”
http://www.philly.com/inquirer/home_top_stories/20090312_Nutter_plan__Taxes_up__spending_down.html
“Investors who hold billions of dollars of residential mortgage-backed securities are pressing the Obama administration to make changes in its housing rescue plan.
Participation by these investors will help determine the success of President Barack Obama’s $75 billion plan to reduce foreclosures and help stabilize the housing market. But many investors are critical of features of the program and have been meeting with Treasury officials in an effort to influence parts of the plan, such as how it treats second mortgages.
Some investors say they are contemplating legal action because they think the administration’s plan and legislation before Congress would violate their rights. They are particularly concerned about measures that would prevent lawsuits against mortgage servicers, which collect loan payments for the investors and are responsible for modifying loans with homeowners.”
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB123682290961203725.html
“Brokerage William B. May has changed its business model so brokers can receive 100 percent of their commissions. Charles Rutenberg Realty adopted a similar model in 2006, as reported by The Real Deal, in which brokers pay fees to the brokerage, but don’t have to give up any of their commission. At William B. May, brokers will be required to pay a one-time $1,500 fee, and $500 per month, according to managing partner Craig Lamb. The brokers don’t have to pay a fee per transaction, which sets this system apart from Charles Rutenberg Realty’s commission model.
Lamb said he has been working on implementing this model for about two and a half years, and it comes just in time, as brokers are making fewer deals because of the recession.
“I don’t really think brokers can afford to have the type of [commission] splits with the major houses anymore,” Lamb said, adding that at most brokerages, brokers have to give up 25 to 50 percent of their commissions. “There is pressure on the marketplace in terms of people wanting to pay reduced commissions, and fewer people wanting to use brokers. And in this [economic] environment, it’s very hard to justify giving [a chunk of your commission] up,” he said.”
http://www.urbandigs.com/
sas says:
March 12, 2009 at 5:46 am
kettle,
do you ever sleep?
once in a while, but its a bad habit i try to avoid.
March 11 (Bloomberg) — Greenwich, Connecticut, home sales dropped 77 percent in February, the most on record, as Wall Street firms cut jobs and buyers retreated from multimillion- dollar purchases, Prudential Connecticut Realty said.
Seventeen homes sold last month, down from 75 a year earlier, the biggest annual decline for any month since 1976, when broker John Cooke of Prudential Connecticut began collecting the data. Sales of houses priced $2 million to $3 million fell 80 percent, with two properties selling last month, the broker said. The median sales price declined 2 percent to $1.76 million.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601213&sid=a2pWxeFXrGR0&refer=home
From Bloomberg:
Greenwich Home Sales Fell Most on Record Last Month
Greenwich, Connecticut, home sales dropped 77 percent in February, the most on record, as Wall Street firms cut jobs and buyers retreated from multimillion- dollar purchases, Prudential Connecticut Realty said.
Seventeen homes sold last month, down from 75 a year earlier, the biggest annual decline for any month since 1976, when broker John Cooke of Prudential Connecticut began collecting the data. Sales of houses priced $2 million to $3 million fell 80 percent, with two properties selling last month, the broker said. The median sales price declined 2 percent to $1.76 million.
“Greenwich, despite its imputed affluence, is still a part of the world, and like every place else, it suffers from buyers and sellers not agreeing on the value of illiquid assets — one of those being real estate,” said Roger Pearson, a Greenwich real estate lawyer and former mayor of the town.
Freddie Mac Reports $23.9 Billion Loss, Demands $30.8 Billion More Treasury Funds
Freddie Mac, still suffering from the lax mortgage-lending practices of the housing boom, reported a loss of $23.9 billion for the fourth quarter and said it will need a $30.8 billion injection of capital from the U.S. Treasury. The government-backed provider of funding for home mortgages also said it expects its provisions for losses on mortgage defaults to remain high this year. Freddie’s quarterly loss compares with a loss of $2.45 billion a year earlier. For all of 2008, Freddie reported a loss of $50.1 billion, compared with a year-earlier loss of $3.1 billion. The losses over the past two years exceed the total of about $42 billion earned by the McLean, Va., company from 1971 through 2006.
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB123680408920799901.html?mod=googlenews_wsj
Libor Creep Says Credit Markets Risk Freezing on Distrust of Policymaking
The cost of borrowing in dollars is rising as the global recession deepens and central bank efforts to prop up the financial system fail to prevent a growing number of banks from requiring government bailouts. The London interbank offered rate, or Libor, that banks say they charge each other for three-month loans stayed at 1.33 percent today, near the highest level in since Jan. 8 and up from this year’s low of 1.08 percent on Jan. 14, the British Bankers’ Association said. The Libor-OIS spread, a gauge of bank reluctance to lend, widened to the most since Jan. 9. Short-term borrowing costs are increasing as banks hoard cash and governments struggle to thaw credit markets after finance companies reported almost $1.2 trillion of writedowns and losses since the start of 2007.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=afiuQTQqBTTA&refer=home
Uhoh, timmy better get on this!
TALF Bogs Down as Investors Balk
The government’s $1 trillion program to spark consumer lending hit another roadblock when investors balked at signing an agreement required to participate in the program, arguing that it gave Wall Street dealers and the Federal Reserve too much power to look at their books and reject them from the program. Through the Term Asset-Backed Loan Facility, or TALF, program, an investor can put down $5 to $14 for every $100 it will put up, borrowing the remaining $95 to $86 cheaply from the Fed. They agree to buy eligible, highly rated securities issued by lenders making loans to businesses and consumers to buy cars, pay for their educations or use credit cards. The amount of money an investor must initially fork over varies depending upon the types of loans backing the security.
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB123673596626290901.html?mod=rss_whats_news_us_business
What is this, stimulus number 3,462?
Lawmakers Weigh Need for Second Stimulus to Spur Job Growth
The ink is barely dry on the $787 billion economic stimulus package enacted by Congress, and talk is already beginning on Capitol Hill of the need for a second measure to spur job growth. Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D., Calif.) said Tuesday that lawmakers must give the just-approved package of tax cuts and government spending a chance to work. The bulk of the funds from the $787 billion package are flowing out of government coffers over the next two years, in hopes of lifting the economy of its downward spiral. But Mrs. Pelosi suggested she’s not ruling out action on another measure if the economy remains weak. “We have to keep the door open,” Rep. Pelosi said after a closed-door meeting with several private economists.
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB123672017289487805.html
AIG bailout good for banks, investors bleed
The $173 billion government rescue of American International Group Inc is stoking resentment among investors who see it as a backdoor taxpayer bailout of Goldman Sachs Group Inc and other banks. Six months after the U.S. government stepped in save an insurance giant overwhelmed by derivative losses, AIG continues to bleed red ink. Its stock and bond holders have been crushed, but one group has suffered almost no damage: banks that bought credit protection from AIG Financial Products. Regulatory filings show that since the Federal Reserve announced its rescue of AIG on September 15, about $50 billion of government money has passed through the company to banks.
http://www.reuters.com/article/GCA-CreditCrisis/idUSTRE5296X520090310?sp=true
#3
Speaking from my personal experience, I have not once been able to get through to the NJ unemployment phone call center. I encountered a road block yesterday trying to file something on-line and decided I had to go in person to the unemployment office. I dreaded the thought of it – thinking there would be long lines and disgruntled counselors. Instead, a very supportive counselor helped me and there was actually no line at all. But the re-employment center was packed and lots of people were waiting to access one of their many computers.
US companies pull out of retirement plans
A wave of US companies are suspending payments to their staff 401(k) retirement plans in a bid to cut costs amid the economic downturn. Saks, General Motors, newspaper group McClatchy, clothing company J.Crew, FedEx, UPS, Coca-ColaBottling, Reader’s Digest, Motorola, Regions Financial and Sprint Nextel are among the growing list of companies which have suspended contributions. Even the AARP, the influential advocacy group formerly known as the American Association for Retired Persons, will suspend contributions to its staff 401(k) plan from March 22 for the rest of the year.
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/155d5b54-0ddc-11de-8ea3-0000779fd2ac.html
So does this hurt johns “long debt, short equity” plan?
Citigroup, Bank of America Bondholders May Be Next to Share Bailout Pain
Citigroup Inc. and Bank of America Corp.’s bond prices are sliding on concern that owners of debt issued by U.S. financial firms will be forced to swallow losses if the industry needs another bailout. U.S. bank debt has lost 7.8 percent and yields have jumped to record levels compared with benchmark rates in the past month, even after taxpayers committed more than $11.6 trillion to prop up financial firms. With shareholders almost wiped out at banks like Citigroup and lawmakers resisting more rescues, holders may be asked to swap bonds for new debt that offers reduced interest rates or lower face values, analysts said.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601213&sid=agAXIowc8q3c&refer=home
How exactly does the market turn around in the near future when it looks like rampant consumerism is being dropped like a hot potato?
Thrift-conscious say goodbye to cars, cell phones, other luxuries
Everyone’s trying to cut their budget this year, from the White House to big corporations to ordinary citizens. For many Americans, this means making big changes and going without things to which they’ve become accustomed. For some, the economic downturn means saying goodbye to that icon of American prosperity: their car. “What am I cutting from my budget? Something sad … my car,” said college student Kyle Aevermann, who is trying to sell his Nissan Sentra. Aevermann is having trouble finding a job and knows that selling his car will save him money in multiple ways. Not only will he no longer have a car payment, he won’t have to pay for gas, insurance or maintenance. He estimates that gas and insurance alone cost him around $3,000 a year.
http://www.cnn.com/2009/LIVING/03/10/budget.irpt/index.html?eref=rss_topstories
last one grim, sry ;)
The Coming Local Government Credit Crunch
…Municipal borrowers, on the other hand, are stuck with dollars. Though their investors get huge tax exemptions, those benefits might be overwhelmed by two factors. The first is that global wealth, particularly in high-net-worth, debt-dependent states like New York and California, continues to be destroyed. So there may be less demand for tax-sheltered securities. The second is that if the stimulus retards recovery rather than speeding it up, more municipalities will be at real risk of default. That’s dangerous, because right now municipalities are among a few classes of borrowers without a quasi-explicit guarantee from the federal government.
If investors decide to demand such a guarantee as municipal finances continue to deteriorate, the government may have a harder time assuaging their fears. The bailout boat is already sinking under the weight of AIG; it may not have room for Arnold Schwarzenegger….
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB123672996312089009.html
vodka (13)-
Timmay’s too busy trying to find a bagholder to bail him out of his crummy, overleveraged house.
A lot of my listing clients have a hard time concentrating at work, too.
Great News for NJ!!!
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/29650518/
Roche to take over Genentech for $47 billion
Roche said its Pharma commercial operations in the U.S. will be moved from Nutley, New Jersey, to Genentech’s site in South San Francisco, which will become headquarters of the combined company’s U.S. commercial operations in pharmaceuticals and operate under the Genentech name.
Roche said its Pharma commercial operations in the U.S. will be moved from Nutley, New Jersey, to Genentech’s site in South San Francisco, which will become headquarters of the combined company’s U.S. commercial operations in pharmaceuticals and operate under the Genentech name.
It said this would take advantage of “the strong brand value of Genentech in the U.S. market.”
Research and early development will operate as an independent center within Roche from its existing campus in South San Francisco, it said.
How many people work for Roche in NJ??
just make the roche hqts. building an
embassy. Mexico, Peru, or a welfare
hotel for all the illegals here in NJ.
It is not really about the building…
It is about big pharma jobs…
What is created to replace thouse jobs?? Even Wall-Mart is not hiring anymore…
Al 25
“What is created to replace those jobs?? Even Wall-Mart is not hiring anymore…”
None. Depression in the bag. Enough said.
Clot-
What about that new commission model at those brokerages. Will it work? Temporary adjustment to current reality?
Al:
Late stage development will be sent to Nutley, good news for people like me who are looking for Phase 2-4 jobs running clinical studies.
I need to call a friend of mine who applied for a job doing this type of work at Genentech in SF. I wonder if she will even get a job offer.
Citigroup Executives Score $2.2 Million Betting on Own Stock
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=ab3VmhTulLyc&refer=home
kettle…
the plot thickens… aye
:)
SAS
stan (27)-
That model has been around for almost 40 years. It’s called Re/Max.
Actually, it’s the only RE brokerage model that works on a large scale.
SAS
I have my own thoughts on the matter at hand that we should discuss at a gtg.
cheers
sas (30)-
The dump cycle this time around triggers the Black/capitulation market event.
This is my bold call.
Dow 4,500 here we come.
Two upper mgmt pals sacked yesterday. How do I know?
They both called me, wanting to know how to get into RE.
Clot: ref 34: is that a sign they don’t know what’s happening to the market? I thought RE agents were being culled.
The 3 big recent Pharma mergers are all bad for NJ.
Pfizer/Wyeth
Merck/SP
Roche/Genentech
Companies simply don’t want to have any operations in NJ if they can avoid it.
Obviously, a lot of the changes coming to big pharma are the result of an ill conceived bushiness model. The “Blockbuster Chase” which traded short term profit potential for long term growth and stability has essentially failed. This model was conceived to please Wall St. Perhaps with Wall St now being merely a shadow of its former self, pharma and biotech can get back to basic science, R&D, and new product innovation. However, this will be happening in places other than NJ.
why would any company want to stay in
NJ? Why would any company relocate to NJ?
not a friendly place to be.
NJ has become a welfare state with high
taxes and quality of life has gone down
not up. Even the senior execs would not
find NJ a pleasant place to be. What for the airport?
Wouldn’t be surprised to see a big layoff day in Big Law today.
http://www.businesswire.com/portal/site/google/?ndmViewId=news_view&newsId=20090311005290&newsLang=en
Top 10 States Nationwide – Pre-foreclosure Last 6 months
(Toward the bottom of the post)
New Jersey #7
Hey all hype wife just had a recruiter looking for study managers on an 18 month contract no benifits, which sucks for you with the engagement and all but might not effect your severence. Rates were pretty high as well. Get in touch with me on my personal email – MG
“Dow 4,500 here we come”
yeah, its possible.
Will gold buy the DOW?
BC says 2:1
possible 1:1
SAS
Back to the Future….
I always did like that movie.
SAS
#34 clot:They both called me, wanting to know how to get into RE.
Are you kidding?
Genentech’s Avastin killed a company I was working for way back when. Clinical studies showed it was best in class and our stock went from 45 to 11 over a weekend. Their partenership with Roche has been mutually beneficial. I’m surprised this has taken as long and became as hostile as it was. I think the Genentech board wanted assurances that the majority of their staff would be retained and the best possible deal.
what happened to srs? i thought all on this board already got out of this crap.
http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=srs#chart5:symbol=srs;range=ytd;indicator=volume;charttype=candlestick;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=on;source=undefined
I bot SRS big time. Loading up on more of it.
waiting for dow to 4500 is equivalent to waiting for dow 45000 in 2000. good luck.
Long live Kennedy
Mass. Kennedy legacy projects get new fed dollars
http://www.google.com/hostednews/ap/article/ALeqM5iw0HKqKYkqT9MV3bBhbn9BZXZuYQD96RVGMO1
46#, frank, see you at 20s
#50,
Lets hope, so I buy more.
http://www.reuters.com/article/politicsNews/idUSTRE52B3BT20090312
#47 bi: Can you translate that statement please?
So, when do they unveil BARF, the Bank Asset Refunding Facility?
It seems we have had enough of the Securitized Home-loan Investment Trusts.
“What is this, stimulus number 3,462?”
Lately, the congress is more stimulating than one of those women John had in the back of his car in the 70s.
SAS
Will gold buy the DOW?
BC says 2:1
possible 1:1
SAS
1:1 is a given , just my opinion
#33
Dow 4,500 here we come.
If Dow hits 4,500 then we should see Dow ends above 9000 this year
the mkt is waiting for the moment of capitulation
“just make the roche hqts. building an
embassy. Mexico, Peru, or a welfare
hotel for all the illegals here in NJ.”
Lol, the Roche Hotel
How long before we see the Consumer Relief And Protection Act of 2009.
As for the Dow, It would not surprise me to see it hit 1/3 of its peak value before things stabilize. Then, I don’t know why anyone would have high hopes of a steep rise. There is every reason to believe we will see a 70’s style trading range.
Re: #57 George markets are waiting for the perp walks, once we get the perp walks.Only then can we begin to rebuild confidence,the markets will not see 9k until that happens.
I can’t resist. We were just harping on this the other day.
“(CNN) – Actor Chuck Norris has his eyes on the presidency, but not the White House. Norris wrote that he would be interested in becoming the president of Texas, if the state were ever to secede from the Union.
“I may run for president of Texas,” Norris wrote Monday in a column posted at WorldNetDaily. “That need may be a reality sooner than we think. If not me, someone someday may again be running for president of the Lone Star state, if the state of the union continues to turn into the enemy of the state.”
The actor claimed “thousands of cell groups will be united around the country in solidarity over the concerns for our nation” and said that if states decide to secede from the union, that Texas would lead the way.”
Needless to say, he kicked the liberal hornet’s nest, and they are denigrating him roundly. But, as a student of politics generally, I agree with his premise that, if there were states that considered secession, Texas would be first or second, along with Alaska.
That said, it isn’t going to happen. There are far more centripital forces than centrifugal in our country and culture. Chuck’s contingency offer is not going to be needed.
Ya know, you can’t make this stuff up. You just can’t. Seems the “no signing statement” policy lasted about as long as a Hollywood marriage.
“WASHINGTON (CNN) – Just days after issuing a directive that has the potential to limit the impact of his predecessor’s prolific use of presidential signing statements, President O-bama issued his first statement setting forth his administration’s “constitutional concerns” with a federal law. . . .
In what may be a sign of potential turf battles to come between the White House and Capitol Hill, O-bama states that the spending bill’s instructions to seek Congressional committee approval before spending or reallocating funds “are impermissible forms of legislative aggrandizement.”
Therefore, “spending decisions shall not be treated as dependent on the approval [from the committees].”
Talk among yourselves. I have to get back to work.
Uh Oh- Frank buying SRS by the boat loads. Is this a contrarian indicator?
#38
Great – more of my cohorts competing for whatever legal jobs are left.
I wonder if the first years are going to be demanding $200k for ny this year
SAS
1:1 is a given , just my opinion
Kettle,
I will take only 50% of the table when the ratio is 2:1.
How much fiat currency do you think I can get when that happens.
Maybe I can start a bank and unlike FDIC I say that your dollars are backed by my other 50% of shiny.
Sign out front will say.
NOT FDIC INSURED BUT BACKED BY GOLD AND FARM LAND!!!
#6
” Mr. Grundlach says the program would be more palatable to investors if, for instance, modifications weren’t given to borrowers who lied when they took out their initial mortgage.”
seems like a simple request, no?
One question on townhouses (TH) versus single family homes (SFH): what is a rough price ratio between comparable TH vs SFH?
The question is because there are many “more affordable” THs that are newer that SFHs, and there is a discussion in our household over what to aim for when we get there…
Any suggestions from experts?
S
“Mr. Grundlach says the program would be more palatable to investors if, for instance, modifications weren’t given to borrowers who lied when they took out their initial mortgage.””
Or those who:
also borrowed the downpayment
extracted equity as the home value rose
borrowed in excess of 3x income
key stat in the Greenwich sales decline I think is that median prices have only dropped 2% YoY. There are buyers out there at the right price, but sellers for the most part still are unwilling to come to jesus
Sastry, I can give you one anecdote. My parents own a SFH which has almost exactly the same sq footage of my TH. Both in the same town. Both built within a year of each other (early 90s). Only significant difference is I have a finished basement, their SFH is on a slab. Anyway – at peak, units like mine (in my complex) were going for 365k or so. Homes like my parents (in their development) were going for 415k or so. I don’t have any idea what prices are like now. Units like mine are now at or slightly below 300K, but nothing in their neighborhood is even on sale and there are no recent sales so I have no idea how low their SFH has gone.
Stu,
This sounds like something I recall you describing recently:
http://www.cnbc.com/id/29637583
Recession proof?
http://www.cnbc.com/id/29260300
#38
“Wouldn’t be surprised to see a big layoff day in Big Law today.”
just a wild guess, or is this based on something?
Last pay period before the end of the Quarter.
Comp Killer Westfield
902 HIGHLAND AVE
Sale Date Sale Price
06/2006 $1,450,000
02/2009 $1,250,000
Plus an $87,000 commission. But as someone here said recently, at least they didn’t put that money in the market.
About Big Law,
The firms that get much of their work from Wall Street have been taking a beating, and all the others are getting lots of pressure from clients for breaks on hourly rates and alternative billing systems. It is a time of flux and will be interesting to see how things shake out. There have already been a number of AmLaw firms that have broken apart and there may well be more to come.
“Last pay period before the end of the Quarter.”
makes sense.
“Plus an $87,000 commission.”
C’mon, for Westfield that won’t even buy a decent car.
B.O.’s signing statement.
http://www.whitehouse.gov/the_press_office/Statement-from-the-President-on-the-signing-of-HR-1105/
#69 Sastry –
Can you take a look at Realtytrac for some hint of preforeclosures? We bought our home (in Montco-Philly burbs) in 97 for 130k. It was a dump in a great neighborhood, in a better condition it would’ve gotten 150k. The nearby townhomes were going for 125-140k. Currently, those same TH’s are going for circa 250k and a home without an addition in our neighborhood is getting 300k.
When I look at Realtytrac, I see pretty clearly those TH’s are going to be dropping more soon. There are currently 5 homes there in preforclosure. None in my neighborhood (yet).
It would make sense to me that TH’s have a younger, less stable demographic than SFHs, but I don’t know if the situation here applies on a grander scale.
Re #69
Use realtytrac’s map feature. You won’t get the street numbers, but you’ll get a clear view of the two neighborhoods.
a few big law firms will undoubtedly collapse due to parter defections, but it seems to me that most will survive, just in smaller and less profitable form.
it really sucks for the associates, esp the junior ones who have a ton of law school debt and little in the way of demonstrable skills. I would not be surprised to see many senior associates start new firms which challenge the biglaw model in various ways (e.g., like the Virtual Law firm which has no central office and can charge lower rates).
Shore Guy
C’mon, for Westfield that won’t even buy a decent car.
Its more than enough to lease!
http://www.cnbc.com/id/29655366
Time to ship him off to jail, liquidate his assets, and make some restitution. If the USG wants to purchase his wife a 1,200 sq.ft. ranch house in Orlando and cover the utilities and taxes and provide a small stipend for insurance, food, etc, I would not object. I doubt she had any knowledge of what was going on; however, she has benefited from his crime and should not continue to live in luxury at the expense of those who lost money to her husband’s now-acknowledged criminal activities.
GE no longer AAA…
#86
” If the USG wants to purchase his wife a 1,200 sq.ft. ranch house in Orlando and cover the utilities and taxes and provide a small stipend for insurance, food, etc, I would not object. I doubt she had any knowledge of what was going on;”
doesn’t seem plausible that she didn’t know given how long the scheme had been going on. if she is not prosecuted, she can get a job at IHOP and fend for herself just like real mericans do
#71 skeptic: but sellers for the most part still are unwilling to come to jesus.
I is illogical, but it almost seems the worse the news on the econimic front, the more many sellers appear to be digging their heels in. Deep, deep denial.
This type of denial/cluelessness was not present during the housing downturn/recession in the early 90’s.
Troop move to Mexican border under consideration
WASHINGTON — President BO weighed in Wednesday on the escalating drug war on the U.S.-Mexico border, saying that he was looking at possibly deploying National Guard troops to contain the violence but ruled out any immediate military move.
http://www.mcclatchydc.com/227/story/63800.html
Looks like the Onion changed its domain name to Bloomberg.
U.S. Stocks Gain as GE Says Rating Cut Won’t Hurt Business, Pfizer Rallies
Geet a look at THESE numbers. And to think, just about a yer ago people were downplaying the threat of an economic downturn.
http://www.reuters.com/article/topNews/idUSTRE52B1KM20090312
“This type of denial/cluelessness was not present during the housing downturn/recession in the early 90’s.”
I wonder if this is because of the greater debt load people are currently carrying versus the last downturn. If one has little debt, the loss of home value stings but it is not a killer. If one is deep in debt and is relying on equity for wealth….
Like the people in NC said, they NEED the money from the house sale to pay for college.
#91 victorian:U.S. Stocks Gain as GE Says Rating Cut Won’t Hurt Business
Yeah, sure, makes perfect sense/sarcasm off.
#84
Without the billable hours the paralegals and the lawyers (especially the associates) will be let go. The associates are under a lot more pressure to be rainmakers, that’s for sure.
#93 shore:I wonder if this is because of the greater debt load people are currently carrying versus the last downturn.
That is what I believe anyhow, there is no other rational explanation for it.
If it never REALLY existed, can it be destroyed?
http://www.reuters.com/article/newsOne/idUSTRE52966Z20090310
House Whine,
Just wait. I expect to see partners turning on each other and a trend towards deequitizing less productive partners.
[90] veto
He is just doing that as a show of force. He doesn’t want Chuck Norris taking over Texas.
FBI raids office of D.C. CTO, Obama appointee
Federal agents this morning are searching the office Washington, D.C.’s Chief Technology Officer.
The search is part of “an ongoing investigation,” said a spokeswoman for the FBI’s D.C. Field Office, Lindsay Gotwin, said. She declined to comment further on the raid of office, at 1 Judiciary Square.
The outgoing Chief Technology Officer, Vivek Kundra, was appointed last week Chief Information Officer by the Obama administration. His last day at the city government office was February 4, a spokeswoman for D.C. Mayor Adrian Fenty, Leslie Kershaw, said. He was appointed to the Washington post in 2007.
“We know the FBI is over there but that’s all we know,” said a staffer in the D.C. CTO’s office, Mario Field, who was working from a separate location. Another source familiar with the raid said the FBI had sent all staffers other than senior executives home for the day.
A White House spokesman had no immediate comment.
D.C. mayor’s spokeswoman Kershaw said, “Our office has been alerted of FBI’s being at CTO office, but we cannot comment until it’s over and we get more details.”
http://www.politico.com/blogs/bensmith/0309/FBI_raids_office_of_DC_CTO_Obama_appointee.html
shore [93],
The reason is because the NJ/NYC area would need a tidal wave, a nuclear blast and an epidemic of a deadly African virus to occur before prices come down with any significance. I’m convinced… we are insulated.
Were there any inducements in Kig Jon’s budget to encourage municipalities to merge?
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/29516455/
That one made me think of Booyah and blood in the streets.
I don’t know if it was posted already. Been too busy to read. Busy ex salary. I’m a shadow stat.
So I generate databases for the PTA, fool around with stuff at school, and take my daughter to Brownies.
That youtube re cookie sales [Kool-aid is for Closers] hits the sweet spot for some of the troops down here.
If anything Texas will be absorbed into Mexico…not become it’s own territory.
#102 none Carla has the pics
The national Guard……vs Chuck Norris.
surely you can’t be serious
There is no theory of evolution, just a small list of creatures that chuck norris allows to survive
House Whine,
When my mother lost here job in the early 1980s, we had to go to the unemployment office on 181st and St Nicholas Ave. As expected, the lines were long and the place was filled with cigarette smoke. One thing I noticed was that around 5 PM, they started opening up a bunch of windows to speed things up so the employees wouldn’t have to stay late.
#101 gary,
I agree 100%.
We’re not only insulated but there is still tons of pent up demand about to bust out of that insulation & they have jobs, they just don’t have housing they like. There were zero SFH built in this last run up, just McMansions & condos… guess what most people bought & guess what they want out of? Whether moving up or down, either way, they meet in the middle.
But forget aesthetics, just look at the stats even, house prices doubled last time too, & look at that retrace…
http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v89/fucttape/untitled1112.jpg
Listen gloom n’ dope great depression kids, its the same reason, for fear of collapse, that George Bailey couldn’t give all the depositors their money back, cos it was in Joe’s house & Stan’s house, etc. Just like we can’t take all the money back out of the houses or the leverage & purchases they made with MEW & HELOC. [In the meantime, hold on, its the worst xmas ever, we hit dow 4.5k next spring, but the good news is that real money will start flowing, this spring its just the promise of it while it’s still cooling from the presses.] & the retrace won’t go too much further down if everything else is catching up & people are moving back from PA, NC on top of it too.
correction:
pant
This type of denial/cluelessness was not present during the housing downturn/recession in the early 90’s.
————————————–
Age demographics? Then/Now
#109
“There were zero SFH built in this last run up, just McMansions & condos… guess what most people bought & guess what they want out of? Whether moving up or down, either way, they meet in the middle.”
ithink– you are assuming a couple of things here. first, that no one moves away to where there is huge surplus housing supply at much cheaper prices. Seems to me this is a compelling choice for people on the verge of retirement. Second, you are assuming that households will not be consolidated (i.e., people moving back in with their parents or vice versa). Job loss is causing real demand destruction and even if inventory remains flat (which it is not), it seems to me that value is still eroding.
Oh the Carolina’s:
Police: Client shoots SC real estate broker
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20090311/ap_on_re_us/real_estate_shooting_1
Bubble Disciple says:
re: opening windows at closing time..
I once arrived at the DMV in downtown Manhattan 5 minutes before close. I had to stay, even though the line was tremendous. They did just what you described, windows were opening up like crazy. We were all out of there about 20 minutes after closing. After that I only went to that DMV, and right before closing.
nom & kettle,
Kevlar.. good for shrapnel out in the field.
as a “bullet proof”, I’ve never been a huge fan.
SAS
Living in Motels, the Hidden Homeless
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/03/11/us/11motel.html?_r=1&partner=rss&emc=rss&src=igw
California hemorrhages jobs, but all states hurting
California lost the most jobs of all the states, 79,300, in January, while Michigan registered the highest unemployment rate at 11.6 percent, the Labor Department said on Wednesday. South Carolina followed Michigan with an unemployment rate of 10.4 percent. Rhode Island, which had its highest unemployment rate on record, was third at 10.3 percent. Besides losing more jobs than any other state, California had an unemployment rate of 10.1 percent, compared to the national rate of 7.6 percent that month. Since January 2008, the Pacific coast state shed nearly a half million jobs — the largest decrease in the country — as a devastated real estate market and government standstill pushed more and more people out of work.
http://www.reuters.com/article/domesticNews/idUSTRE52A4CB20090311
DL (35)-
There are NEVER enough RE agents who actually know what they’re doing. Believe it or not, I might be able to bring along one of my pals who got canned. He’s a sharp dude.
sas (41)-
I’m not greedy. I’ll settle for 2:1.
Somebody please archive bi’s call in #47. We’ll be revisiting that one.
kettle,
you follow the food markets…
is there any truth to this potatoe shortage?
I’ve heard a rumor that there is as shortage.
needs to be verified.
SAS
In Japan: Lost your job? If you want benefits, then sell the car
It is, on the face of it, merely a supremely ambiguous phrase of bureaucratic Japanese — but it is threatening to plunge the country’s welfare system into chaos and create a national “fire sale” of everything from violins to motorbikes. Trying to make sense of it are the burgeoning ranks of unemployed Japanese seeking to tide themselves over with money provided by the State. Their task: to pare down their lives so that their homes contain only “reasonable items”. Their problem: nobody knows what constitutes “reasonable”.
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/world/article5877561.ece
SAS
thats what the rifle plates are for ;)
vic (64)-
Just a troll.
make (67)-
Be sure that when you do that, you raise an army, establish borders and secede from the US.
Otherwise, things might get a little hairy.
SAS,
kevlar is better then nothing.
will get back to you tonight on the potato question, have been focused on wheat and corn lately.
Most crops are facing reduced production and its looking like 2010 could see some serious shortages if tings dont change very soon
Two Americas, Two Tax Codes
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/03/09/opinion/09brown.html
skep (68)-
You must’ve missed the memo. Mortgage fraud is ok, as long as it’s the borrower who does it.
Obama: Troop move to Mexican border under consideration
http://www.mcclatchydc.com/227/story/63800.html
Shore (98)-
Now you’re thinking like a lawyer.
Sidley Austin Cutting jobs:
http://abovethelaw.com/2009/03/impending_layoff_watch_sidley.php
From MarketWatch:
U.S. 2008 household debt rises 0.4%, lowest on record
U.S. 2008 household net worth lower than in 2004
U.S. household debt falls in 4Q for first time on record
U.S. household net worth falls 18%, or $11 trillion, in 2008
remember how the dems were going to restore integrity to congress?
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/03/13/us/politics/13waters.html?_r=1&hp
#111 Age demographics? Then/Now?
What difference does that make?
90’s-Now Both times had recessions, only this one is turning out to be far worse.
90-‘s-Now Various sellers, older younger, retired, divorce, move up buyers, move down buyers, job relocations.
90’s use of Home Equity loans and HELOCs rare, car leasing was still not common place. Mercedes and BMW’s were still the cars driven by the wealthy;not the wannabees.
#101 gary: Why are we insulated?
If we were truly insualted, than lots of houses would be selling in our area. Would they not?
Who cares if some clueless home owner is looking for peak price plus 10% they are not getting it.
And who cares if some clueless home buyer pays close to these asking prices on occasion?
The fact that all the other houses are still sitting there tells the real story.
Because if we were insulated, than the housing market in our area would be humming along nicely,and it isn’t.
133: anyway you look at this, this is the most corrupt and secretive congress in history.
Pelosi actually eliminated all procedures that allow minority party to be involved – now NY Slimes is advocating getting rid of filibuster in Senate..you know it is “essential constitutional check (if dems in opposition) or something to get rid of (if dems in power).
potatoe shortage? never. just put one in the ground & you’ll get more.
#127 PA Bound:
“WARREN BUFFETT knows there’s something very unfair about the American tax system. He’s often complained that while his 2006 tax rate (for federal income taxes and Social Security withholding) on $46 million of income was 17.7 percent, his secretary’s combined tax rate was 30 percent.”
Doesn’t this fall under the AMT? How is this possible?
Does debt still equal wealth?
Yup. No problems there if Zimbabwe, Russia and Saudis get absolute control over the waterways.
Can’t they just eliminate congress alltogether?
“Senate gearing up to ratify Nixon-era U.N. treaty meant to create universal laws to govern the seas — a pact critics say could even claim powers over American waterways”
NJ real estates will never drop down.
We have Corzine that used to run Goldman Sachs. The one thing that this guy knows about is keeping his job. That means keeping every greedy people around his office. He’s not interested in cutting on spending.
Now everyone in NJ still has a job. Why? Because the administration is bailing out the guys in NYC. Where do you think all these guys live in? Not NYC, they’re all in NJ and CT. The bosses there know how to keep their jobs. Same thing with Corzine, in order to keep their jobs, they need employees under them.
So no you will not see the damage and unemployment that is happening with other states. The rich here knows how to keep their jobs and it’s only the low income people that will lose their jobs. The people working for Circuit City and those that are deemed expendable in their eyes.
Justin: “Doesn’t this fall under the AMT? How is this possible?”
He does not say that it does not fall under AMT. He is only talking about income tax.
GE loses it’s AAA rating and the stock goes up. Chinese exports drop 26%, and FXP goes down.
Why?
HE (113)-
Any client who wants to shoot me is in for a big surprise.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8Gy-Cq75BWY
#141 200K Plus: I have been on the “street” for many years,a nd there have always been layoffs, and there have huge numbers of layoffs over the last 12 months,and there are many more on the way.
Here is a nice stat for you over 50% of Wall St jobs pay under 100k a year.
U.S. household net worth declines 18% in 2008
another 20% in 2009 and we could be on to something here.
Cool stuff.
think (137)-
Right. Just look at how well the Irish did with that in the mid-1800’s. Potatoes everywhere.
Were you born yesterday, or is your ignorance hard-won?
Why?
Morning in America
#141
Impossible to argue with that.
#4 – Heard on the radio this morning that unemployment-related foreclosures are starting.
“These days, rising unemployment — not just problem loans — is driving the surge…” http://realestate.msn.com/article.aspx?cp-documentid=18532738>1=35000
I’ve been lurking here for some time now…nice to *finally* join in.
#112, skep-tic
a few might move away to cheaper housing but if the boomers savings are in such shitty shape & they just started, seems to me theres plenty need to stick around.
yes, i do doubt they will consolidate for the most part cos no way:
a) am i moving into that crap shack i grew up in with mom & her new husband & my two kids.
b) am i getting the kids to pay rent when i said i wouldn’t pay for their education at state school only half of it at community college, while they’re making $8-$10 an hour if lucky.
d) do i really want a roommate? i own a house?!
e) there’s no letter (c)
Job loss might be causing demand destruction but we’ve only equaled a 1949 level & the population is TWICE that now.
so I was reading up on Iceland last night, and you would think that based on all of the news of their financial collapse, that RE prices would’ve plummeted there. Interestingly, despite coming down a bit, prices are still 3.5x as high there as they were in 1994. It is hard to understand how we can be anywhere close to a bottom globally when even ridiculously bubbly assets are still at such high levels
so I was reading up on Iceland last night, and you would think that based on all of the news of their financial collapse, that RE prices would’ve plummeted there. Interestingly, despite coming down a bit, prices are still 3.5x as high there as they were in 1994. It is hard to understand how we can be anywhere close to a bottom globally when even ridiculously bubbly assets are still at such high levels
http://www.realestate.co.nz/blog/iceland-victim-of-the-credit-crisis-so-what-is-property-like-there.html
I don’t know if anyone else mentioned this, but Cramer is going to confront that jerk Jon Stewart tonight. I’m looking forward to Cramer putting that jerk in his place. In a way, I feel he shouldn’t give any credence to this punk by appearing on his show, but this criticism of Cramer and CNBC has just simply gotten out of control. They’re trying to do the job of keeping us informed and sure, no one is perfect and we’re all going to make mistakes, but Stewart is deliberating trying to make everyone look like a fool.
23 U.S. Regional Bank Ratings on Review for Moody’s Downgrade
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=asIuYcUtsf8w&refer=home
Notably, Iceland liberalized their banking laws in the early 1990s. So the grow of their real estate mirrored the rise of their banking sector. Obviously, their banking sector has collapsed, therefore it is surprising that the real estate remains so high. It seems to me that there is an analogy between their situation and the NYC area’s (although theirs is more extreme)
if corzine does not stay in NJ…. does
he take a homland security gig….
in the border patrol section?
tard (154)-
Except for you. In the fool department, you don’t need any help looking like one. In fact, you are a sui generis of fools.
“…but Stewart is deliberating trying to make everyone look like a fool.”
Closed my position on GE. Enjoyed the ride from 6.50 to 9.70.
Thanks, Dennis Kneale
zack (159)-
Too bad Kneale’s GE options only exercise at about $30. Lots more pumping to go for that shill.
Why, again, was GE not dropped to “D”?
#135, 3b
The fact that all the other houses are still sitting there tells the real story.
No, the reason houses are still sitting there is cos they are holding their value, even as much as they’ve fallen, because a) they’re affordable & b) they’re not just giving up the gains of equity they may have.
For example:
Was speaking with someone who lives in a Brigadoon town & needs to move due to work overseas. Wharton MBA & pining about how will the house sell in this market. I offer to take a glance, I look up the stats online. I know the finance situation well & I say, geez, just tack on 5% compound since you bought in 2002 & you’ll do really well & underprice the neighbors, I guarantee you’ll get it sold.
Response: Hm, no, you don’t understand, I couldn’t do that, you see, that town & other towns have appreciated like 10-15% so, no way’
…You’d still make a profit?
Yeah, but I’m just not giving it away.
There are plenty of houses that have plenty of equity out there, they have what’s called wiggle room, but they’re not just going to give it up. They’ll sit on the market & in 9 months, say, fine, I’ll give you a 5-10% break on price, asshole. & that’s IF they have to sell. Otherwise, supply is dwindling except for the desperate & those better come at bargain prices.
Circuit city didn’t give things away for 2 cents, let alone, 50% off, what house owner or bank or paper note holder is going to?
There’s a big difference between going to a yard sale & paying $500 for the honor of someone making an ass groove for you in the couch … or going to an estate sale & getting that hunk of junk outta there. Same condition, it’s all perspective to value.
If you want the bargain, you gotta earn it, pay yourself & find it. It doesn’t just magically come along cos the market is tanking.
SAS
potatoes….. yes, i would add that the current situtaion isnt as concerning at the potential for 2010.
High prices and lack of credit interrupted normal fertilization cycles last fall and the situation isnt any better for spring planting. Global reserves are very low and if the 09 harvest goes bust then you could see behavior similar to what happened to rice last summer.
Record droughts are currently occurring in some of the primary growing areas around the world. even without the money problems, the current droughts are problematic
Barien
stocks are up because people think that we are at or near bottom since a little dirty laundry has been aired?.?.?…
thinky (162)-
One would think a Wharton MBA could put 2 + 2 together when it comes to residential RE. You, I’ll give a pass on this, since you’re obviously just a retard.
OTOH, Timmay can’t figure out what’s up with his own house, either…
thinky (162)-
That whole tale of yours is a rework of the tired “it’s different here” theme.
That Wharton MBA pal of yours might be lucky to be working a drive thru by 1-1-10.
ithink (162) –
What about the carry costs on that house? – Mortgage + Taxes + Insurance + Maintenance.
The only one that gives it away cheap is Clot’s mom.
#162
the ones who don’t have to sell aren’t setting the current comps.
You can’t make up this:
This is from union thug Jimmy Hoffa, today:
“Since when is the secret ballot a basic tenet of democracy?” Hoffa said”
O has already stated that he will support the termination of secret vote in unionization.
This is yet another (like we didn’t have reasons already) reason to move jobs and factories abroad. O is certainly committed in destroying the economy once and for good.
Ed and syncmaster… Thanks for the input. I will use Realtytrac and see the general trends.
S
#167 – Vict. carrying costs?
pfft, you just need to know 2.5x’s income, right? & then tada, its affordable.
162
I see many houses on the market month after month that are empty with no price drop. Someone who leaves a house empty month after month, even if they can afford the taxes and the cost of legitimately insuring an empty property is not a rational economic actor. The house can be vandalized, the house is susceptible to vermin and fire. You are also risking that you will get less a year from now.(Although it seems you think this is impossible)
Why not sell?
“Why, again, was GE not dropped to “D”?”
Ratings agencies decided to cut the government some slack and delay the inevitable bailout one quarter.
#169 – skep
BINGO! that’s the point gary was making & I’m adding onto… the place is too insulated, it’ll take the end-of-days to see the damage or carnage everyones speaking of on this board & sorry, potatoes can grow really well in any simple soil, so go plant some, its spring. sure, we’re seeing declines but there’s too many POS’s that are barely down or worth sinking 20% into, compared to the % that they ran up
think (168)-
You better not come to any GTGs, you stupid fcuk.
ithink–
I think you missed my point. The distressed sellers are setting the current comps, which are lower. So the holdout sellers aren’t getting anything for holding out– prices are eroding beneath them. It is a slow process, to be sure, but it is happening.
#173 – renter
if there’s no gains, why bother? if i have equity, sure, i’ll sell… unless there’s a creditor who’ll take my gains the minute i sell… unless i can take my gains & scoot. maybe someone will eminent domain it & sell it for cheap, but at that point, i don’t care.
ah good old clot. Have you ever argued with anybody without personal insults?
I know I know..it comes with the ideology.
#177 – skep
you say erode, i say retrace… what goes down, goes back up.
(178)-
My mom? After reading this, I’m not so sure your mom walks upright:
“…unless i can take my gains & scoot. maybe someone will eminent domain it & sell it for cheap, but at that point, i don’t care.”
Eminent domain?!?! How many drinks do you need before you start to think you’re smart?
Oh, great. Just like clockwork, here comes Thing 2, aka Jamil.
Has anyone seen more granular data about this?
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20090312/ap_on_bi_go_ec_fi/consumer_finances
[138] justin
I could explain it to you, but then I would have to bill you.
Consider the source of most of Buffett’s income, and the tax rate on it. And consider that AMT doesn’t raise one’s tax rate so much as it eliminates deductions.
“stocks are up because people think that we are at or near bottom since a little dirty laundry has been aired?.?.?…”
Grasping at straws. People WANT the market to go up, regardless of what their heads tell them, and they are looking for any excuse to bid-up prices. But like a beach ball at a rock concert, the market will find a way of finding the floor.
#180
“you say erode, i say retrace… what goes down, goes back up.”
fair enough. so do you think RE was fairly valued on a fundamental level during the bubble? otherwise, it’s hard for me to understand what the point of holding out is
“No, the reason houses are still sitting there is cos they are holding their value,”
Yeah, that makes sense. NOT!
Shore (185)-
And a few of us will be on the floor, welcoming them back.
“the house is susceptible to vermin and fire”
If the house is insured for replacement value, leaving it vacent and praying for arson may be a rational course of action.
skep (186)-
You don’t get it, do you? Thinky and his crew are going to live forever.
“GE loses it’s AAA rating and the stock goes up. Chinese exports drop 26%, and FXP goes down.
Why?”
because you are not watching a market, you are watching economic warfare.
look at it with those eyes, and things becomes a little clear.
SAS
“Oh, great. Just like clockwork, here comes Thing 2, aka Jamil.”
what the heck you are trying to say?
Shore (189)-
Regular policies will not pay off in the event that a damaged home has been vacated for more than 30 consecutive days.
What??? You’re threatening someone???
Anyone you feel like you have to threaten is a friend of mine. Mess with my friends at your own peril. What?? You’re going to sic that mangy Mutley on him?? No, I don’t think so. That damn dog had better not show his face anywhere and expect to live.
Now the damn line been drawn. Stay on your damn side.
Clotpoll says:
March 12, 2009 at 2:14 pm
think (168)-
You better not come to any GTGs, you stupid fcuk.
on the timmy thread….Even John Paulson bought property in the Hamptons and listed it for sale way above market. I wonder if it ever moved. Strange that guy was staring at monitors all day that were showing him doom, making money hand over fist and then he goes and lists his overpriced purchase at an inflated LP and it sits.
What’s interesting, to anyone new here, is that its a well known fact that reinvestor101 is actually one of the long time locals posting under a different nick.
196: and how do you know that? who that would be?
that would be really pathetic.
Clot irish potatoe famine was result of crop disease
Bear, i like the handle
Ok, i need some more feedback on this chart. (Kettle?)
http://tinyurl.com/bnj8un
I took out yoy and put in NJ Median Household income and was hoping it would show huge disconnect but it actually looks like it increases in tandem with house prices. I used Census figure data. Why isnt it showing a disconnect, especially during boom years? I will do it for california too just to see if there is a different outcome.
Also, does anyone know a better source for NJ or NY Metro income. Census only goes to 2007.
ahem, Please be advised that I have never posted under another handle other that this one. Yes, I’ve been here a very long time, yes, even before Clotpoll and his damn dog showed up threatening everyone.
Please get your facts straight before posting.
zieba says:
March 12, 2009 at 2:34 pm
What’s interesting, to anyone new here, is that its a well known fact that reinvestor101 is actually one of the long time locals posting under a different nick.
Maybe not a local but clearly a troll.
No one is that dumb.
Jamil (192)-
The Cat in the Hat. Dr. Seuss.
I can highly recommend it. You can probably knock it off in an afternoon.
http://www.amazon.com/Cat-Hat-Dr-Seuss/dp/039480001X
i think it might have to do with the scale of med income, i may need to do % change in income…
Re101
Are you threatening me?! I am the great cornholio!!!! TP for my bunghole……
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YPKP86P8Fwc
zieba (200)-
Don’t say that. I think we’ve got a couple of candidates here.
“What’s interesting, to anyone new here, is that its a well known fact that reinvestor101 is actually one of the long time locals posting under a different nick.”
I always thought that “reinvestor” was a character poster just because reading his comments make me laugh. I’ll figure out who eventually.
vodka (203)-
I’d say this thread’s been pretty much run into the ground now…
Excuse me, but I don’t believe we’ve had a chance to meet, zebra. I’m going to ask you nicely to take what you said back. I’d hate to have to escalate matters beyond my asking that.
Thanking you in advance,
R.E. Investor
zieba says:
March 12, 2009 at 2:39 pm
Maybe not a local but clearly a troll.
No one is that dumb.
Good stuff.
Kettle you never miss a beat!
yeah,
reinvestor101 has been here an awfully long time. Perhaps from the start. always used the same handle as far as I know.
he ain’t all that bad.
good sideshow with a little wit.
SAS
# 170 re Hoffa,
The press release is brilliant and seems aimed at Susan Collins and Olympia Snow, two endangered Republicans in a very independent New England State, Maine. Here is what it says that convinces me they are the ones targeted:
“‘Since when is the secret ballot a basic tenet of democracy?’ Hoffa said. ‘Town meetings in New England are as democratic as they come, and they don’t use the secret ballot. Elections in the Soviet Union were by secret ballot, but those weren’t democratic.’ “
veto, 198
i would suggest charting the
(housing index value)/ (median income)
and you will see a different trend
care to share the data set?
veto 202
Bingo!
he likes to get your goat.
SAS
veto,
i already created a similar chart, see page 6 of 11
http://www.scribd.com/doc/12454619/US-Real-Estate-Look-Out-Below
Isn’t RE 101 Grim?
sas (209)-
Sideshow? Like Sideshow Bob?
http://tinyurl.com/b5h9bt
veto
see pg 5 of 11 for income stats
sas (213)-
I just think he likes goats. In a very uncomfortable way.
Stu,
How that gtc SRS/sell/150 going?
How can you keep riding this up and then back down again? That’s insanity!
3-4 days up = automatic sell and come back lower or just buy the 50s and sell 70.
Your gtc @ 150 is the equivalent of listing a house 40% above market and waiting for a bite.
See you all down the road. Going away for awhile. Be back around 4-1.
Good Luck, Goodbye, Bobby Jean.
I love the idea that because prices have come down some already we are back to a easonabme price. It is as if some character bought a timex, decided to sell and priced it like a Rolex then cut the price to that of a Movado and crowed about the HUGE price cut. Gimme a bloody break.
kettle,
This is a real estate discussion board and not a place to post clips of a damn cartoon. This is NOT funny. Not stop jerking around…
kettle1 says:
March 12, 2009 at 2:40 pm
Re101
Are you threatening me?! I am the great cornholio!!!! TP for my bunghole……
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YPKP86P8Fwc
Clot (201) –
“You can probably knock it off in an afternoon.”
Does it have an anti – union/obama/dems/tax plot? Somehow I get the feeling that J’s reading is strictly limited to these topics.
#175 ithink: they fell dramatically ebfore during the lst housing bust, I ought to know I lived through it.
There is absolutely no reason they will not fall now. Things ar far mroe dire now than they were in the 90’s. Insulated? that is a bunch of krap.
No area is insulated, no state, no county, no town, no section of town etc.
Overprices POS’s are not the market.
Yes and the rich knows how to make sure that the poor gets laid off first. Like you said, almost half the people in Wall Street makes 100k or over. That’s a really high percentage to me. These people are what keeps the prices high in NJ. These people are the ones that gets to keep their jobs because ‘the government must keep the financial sector going’.
Not to mention we have Corzine that has been in the financial world too long to know that anything is wrong in NJ.
3b says:
March 12, 2009 at 1:11 pm
#141 200K Plus: I have been on the “street” for many years,a nd there have always been layoffs, and there have huge numbers of layoffs over the last 12 months,and there are many more on the way.
Here is a nice stat for you over 50% of Wall St jobs pay under 100k a year.
FYI
potato problem is do in part to some heavy rains right at harvest time. This can cause mold and rot, before the farmers can get the potatoes out of the ground. It can also reduce the quality of the harvest therefore reducing the supply for uses that require the higher grade potatoes
“Regular policies will not pay off in the event that a damaged home has been vacated for more than 30 consecutive days.”
In a John Lovits voice, “Yea, we moved in and out every 15 days. Yea, thats the ticket.”
z (219)-
Yeah, but unlike the house part of your analogy, there’s a damn good chance that SRS-150 is coming. Soon.
Comeon 5 on FAS! Comonnn’ fiveee!
Clot,
About insurance and vacant houses. What about folks who have vacation places they seldom use? How does that work then?
vic (223)-
Sometimes I get the feeling that Jamil’s reading is strictly limited, period.
To my understanding, that’s a different game. A house that has been vacated- in which there is no intent to return- is considered to be a vacant home for insurance purposes and should be covered by a special vacant home insurance policy.
Maybe an insurance maven here can chime in with the particulars.
Clot,
You’re right and I know I’m being a hemorrhoid right now, but for all his efforts and the constant damn hawking of the ticker he does, it’s a shame to just sit through 30-60% swings and proclaim all is well. Stu is smart, he knows nothing goes straight up. Sell into three/four green days, clear the fcuk out and retrench lower.
It’s none of my business and I don’t mean to call out but that’s leaving so much money on the table.
Best,
z
#162 Ithink:No, the reason houses are still sitting there is cos they are holding their value,
Houses are sitting cos they are holding their value!!!
Good God, just when you think you have heard it all, someone makes a statment like this.
So if they were selling, would the prices be going up, down, flat, sideways?
And prices dropped dramtically during the last housing bust, but they, will not/are not dropping this time because what?
The economy is booming, Wall St, close to NYC, Blue ribbon Schools??
#186 skep
exactly skep i don’t think it was a fair price… but lots of people paid it, even if they don’t have skin in the game, they had to pay to move or bought new furniture or their kids made new friends, & they don’t want to loose it & there’s plenty who want to move up to those big gains everyone heard about it over the past so many years cos they feel left out.
1988 was a high, real value comes back in 2002… rates, carrying costs, all things equal so maybe ’03, ’04’s not too bad, it’s livable, long as you can keep paying.
#152 skeptic: It is hard to understand how we can be anywhere close to a bottom globally when even ridiculously bubbly assets are still at such high levels
If there is no real selling or buying going on, than it does not matter.
223 vic: “Does it have an anti – union/obama/dems/tax plot? Somehow I get the feeling that J’s reading is strictly limited to these topics.”
Unlike liberals, I have exposed myself to wide variety of political opinions and news sources. If you read only NY Slimes you have quite a bizarre view of the world.
Also, even though I hate liberalism, I try to respect people who advocate that lunacy. Unfortunately, personal insults and ad hominem attacks seem to be an inherent characteristics of the Left.
Kettle, you are genious, i will update to include the ratio and yes i can send data set, to email on that paper?
think (235)-
Amazing how casually you can toss out this assumption:
“…long as you can keep paying.”
Tell me, how’s the current payment thingy going for people who owe more than their homes are worth?
Get back to us on that one, ok?
Back to rental search:
Building one block from to me is offering (more or less) identical apartment, but at 20% lower rent + plus one month free + 1000 visa gift card (“as move-in incentive”).
Good time to be a renter.
conservatives in the northeast are routinely exposed to opposing points of view. every place you go to school, most media that you read, listen to or watch tilt leftward. much more common for left leaning people to live in an echo chamber, IMO. I’m sure its the opposite in some other areas of the country (though the media is national)
jamil (237)-
If you think I’m a liberal, you are both deserving of ad hominem attacks and not too bright.
I do not attack you because I’m a liberal. I do it because you’re annoying and it amuses me.
Here we go again. Now why does everyone want to know who reinvestor101 is? Why does everyone think I’m masquerading as someone else?
Look, I was here when this blog first started when there were only a few posts a day. It was nice and quiet back then and the terrorist/liberal element was more easily dealt with and identified. Those were the halcyon days of yore when real estate was booming, Bush was president and the terrorist element was literally homeless and on the run. Unfortunately, the teeming hordes of real estate terrorists who missed the boom did everything they could to undermine these markets for a very selfish reason—so they could get a damn house on the cheap. I’ve also had to endure all manner of personal insults and attacks on my person mainly because I think positively and love America. That has occurred nearly from day one I began posting here. Guess what? I refuse to be silenced by their brickbats and I refuse to be cowed by their upending of the real estate and stock markets. The day I do that will be the day when they hold the ice follies in hell. Yes, that means NEVER, so as long as a single real estate terrorist exists I’ll be following them to the gates of hell if I have to.
Shore Guy says:
March 12, 2009 at 2:47 pm
Isn’t RE 101 Grim?
Silera says:
March 12, 2009 at 2:41 pm
“What’s interesting, to anyone new here, is that its a well known fact that reinvestor101 is actually one of the long time locals posting under a different nick.”
I always thought that “reinvestor” was a character poster just because reading his comments make me laugh. I’ll figure out who eventually
This just in. I got it from someone inthe USG but I bet it is on a Web site someplace:
Employers spent an average of $29.18 per hour worked for compensation in December 2008. Wages and salaries averaged $20.37 and benefits $8.81. Private industry compensation costs averaged $27.35 per hour, including
$2.26 for legally required and $1.85 for paid leave benefits.
#225 There are not enough high paid people on Wall St to absorb all the 500K POS Capes for sale.
There are around 195K people (rough number) employed in the fianncial sector right now, in the NYC area.
If half of those are earning under 100k, than that leaves about 100k left (with the big bucks) to purchase all the inventory for sale in North/Central Jersey, NYC,all of NYC’s suburbs (Westchester, LI etc.),and southern Conn.
And of course we would have to subtract the numebr of people that already own houses..
veto 238
yes i can send data set, to email on that paper?
i dont understand.
1elttek at G mail
“so as long as a single real estate terrorist exists I’ll be following them to the gates of hell if I have to.”
John McCain?
242 clot: So, according to your logic, it is ok to attack people “who are not bright”
Do you ridicule disabled people? Poor people? Or just people whose political opinions you disagree?
No need to answer – this was rhetorical question.
“And of course we would have to subtract the numebr of people that already own houses..”
3b Don’t be silly. They will buy houses to use as garden sheds, and guest houses. Get with it, man.
#235 I think:1988 was a high, real value comes back in 2002… rates, carrying costs, all things equal so maybe ‘03, ’04’s not too bad, it’s livable, long as you can keep paying.
What exactly are you trying to say here? I bought around 2002, and therefore prices will only fall to around that level?
Not being critical, just asking.
jamil (248)-
“So, according to your logic, it is ok to attack people “who are not bright”
It is when they masquerade as people who have a clue.
Well, time to flogg the staff. Carry on everybody.
veto
yes i can send data set, to email on that paper?
ignore that, sorry i was multitasking. ran to many threads at once ;)
yes that would be fine
#234 3b
i’m not saying they won’t drop dramatically, i’m saying they won’t meet the expectations on this board of gloom & doom & that gary is right to be frustrated.
yes, prices doubled now as they did in 1988 & they will maybe go halvsies. That half price is more than what they would be historically, low rates & all.
you’re like the media freaking out that we have unemployement from 1949.
let’s say it’s 10% of 149million people (1949) out of work is not equal to 10% of 300million people (2009) out of work now.
even if salarys didn’t double, the house prices still didn’t fall all the way back that drastically 1988.
http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v89/fucttape/untitled1112.jpg
I even agree with some of the elevated house prices due to be elevated high interest paid back in the 70’s & 80’s… maybe you’ll find a fire price in texas or vegas, but round here, meh… insulated for the most part.
Bye, BC. Have fun, wherever you are.
Hope whatever you’re doing until 4/1 doesn’t have you looking at this site and gnashing your teeth at some of the upchuck folks like thinky and Jamil keep booting out there.
“There are around 195K people (rough number) employed in the fianncial sector right now, in the NYC area.”
Incidentally, that is also the number of new condos being finished in Manhattan..
UWS alone has at least 10 new condo buildings coming to the market in the next 6 months. Rents are going to collapse even further. Current 20% off is only the beginning.
You guys put me in a good mood today, so I went ahead and clicked the donate button for the second time. It may not be much each time but it makes you feel damn good. To those out there lurking and getting a valuable info; try it!
Hey, you want to feel even better? Try my donate button! (It’s under development, but just post your credit card number here and I’ll press it for you!)
zieba says:
March 12, 2009 at 3:18 pm
You guys put me in a good mood today, so I went ahead and clicked the donate button for the second time. It may not be much each time but it makes you feel damn good. To those out there lurking and getting a valuable info; try it!
“Well, time to flogg the staff”
Shore – You might want to google that also :)
Hey you lurkers out there looking to feel good, post your credit card numbers and I’ll press my donate button for you!
From calculatedrisk; Heloc & Jumbo Prime delinquencies rising…
#254
ithink– that is an interesting chart, but I’m not sure you recognize the full meaning of it. Part of the correction in the early 90s was due to nominal prices falling, but another component of the correction was due to prices staying flat for several years while incomes caught up.
In the end, it doesn’t matter which way it happens, the value is eroded just the same. If your point is that people here may be waiting a long time before prices arrive at their 1997 equivalent, that may be true. But I do not think that chart argues against a large correction in prices relative to incomes on the whole.
254 ithink
perhaps this is all hot air, but if i was single i would be willing to put up 1 years income in an escrow account and wager you on whether we reach 2000 or below inflation adjusted prices by 2013.
alas i have family obligations so this is nothing but hot air.
Kenny Lewis throws his hat in the ring:
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=auvrqwa.MlbA&refer=home
#260
Let’s turn in retard for attempted fraud. Not successful fraud, since I doubt he could be successful at anything.
#250, 3b…
sure, i guess ’02 is good… depends where. location/location/location.
or could be more or less, you might be able to buy more or less of something else, depends on what your lifestyle is fitting?
i’m not trying to avoid the answer but given the above, depends. that’s due diligence.
in west brunswick, nj for example, a split or colonial might not have appreciated nearly what it could’ve elsewhere in a similar neighborhood & as things fall, it may drop further than similar comps elsewhere too.
but do i think they’ll hit 1997 prices? well, if they do that should be a warning sign, no? sometimes it pays to be a sorta numerologist to tell the future & I don’t mean the address.
#262 skep & #263 ket
i’m not trying to win. i would just like to live somewhere nice.
another way to put it is that the relationship between prices and incomes remains remarkably steady outside of occasional bouts of euphoria/depression in the real estate cycle. If you looked at that chart over a 50 or 100 year time frame, this would be more apparent.
“i’m not trying to win. i would just like to live somewhere nice.”
same here. good luck
3254 Ithink: even if salarys didn’t double, the house prices still didn’t fall all the way back that drastically 1988.
Again not sure what you are saying. But I will leave you with the following.
I purchased my first hosue during the last housing bubble peak, late 80’s and sold it 10 years later for less than what I paid for it, and that was with significnat improvements made to the house.
If we had sold when we wanted to our loss would have been about 35%, we elected not to do that. oh and this in a Blur Ribbon Bergen Co. close to NYC train town.
Coops and condos were selling at 50 to 70% off peak prices.
Today Unemployment at its wrost levels since 1949, that is something to be afraid of, financial crisis, a major recession/depression, making the ealy 90’s one look mild.
The disappearance of 4 major wall st firms,and all of the fall out from that. (talk to people in the legal field as just one example).
A bankrupt country,and state and consumers who are drowning in debt, and exhausted form borrowing. Tighter lending standards.
Out of control property taxes (another minimum 7 to 8% increase for us this year),and on and on.
And yet you somehow think real estate in this area is not going to be really affected??
Sorry, but that is delusion denial, whatever you want to call it.
#266 Ithink:but do i think they’ll hit 1997 prices?
And I am sure most people never thought the stock markets would hit 1997 levels either, and yet they did.
#262 skeptic:But I do not think that chart argues against a large correction in prices relative to incomes on the whole.
EXACTLY!!
Look, zebra wants to click a damn donate now button so he can feel good. All I’m doing to accomodating the damn marketplace for people who want to do that. Hell, there might be a whole market of people out there like that.
You too can give me your credit card so you won’t feel left out.
Hubba says:
March 12, 2009 at 3:31 pm
#260
Let’s turn in retard for attempted fraud. Not successful fraud, since I doubt he could be successful at anything.
chart updated to include CS NY Metro Home Price to NJ Median Household Income Ratio in Red,
(Thanks again Kettle)
http://tinyurl.com/bnj8un
Clearly price to income remains way high…
#256 jamil: You should come downtown to lower Manhattan and see all the tons fo new condos (former office buildings) that have yet to come on the amrket.
skeptic, think
most of us here are in the same boat
Bye, BC. We’ll miss your posts.
Hmmmm, so Dimon, Slik Vik, and Lewis all say they are going to be profitable this year. So where exactly do these claims fall on the veracity scale?
Somewhere between “It’s the Ninth Inning” and “We Are Adequately Capitalized”?
275 skeptic: yeah. NYC RE market will be interesting 6 months from now. 100.000 empty condos, available as rentals (60% off from current rents).
275 sorry, I meant 3b
#279 – NYC RE market will be interesting 6 months from now
Probably be even more interesting 2 years out.
Brooklyn has become ugly very quickly.
I can confirm Brooklyn is getting ugly.
I am starting to become concerned about my mothers safety to and from work. Also thinking about upgrading to a beefier lock on both doors even though its landlord owned.
this has been fun, at least we talked real estate today, no?
HEHEHE (278)-
Here is the money quote –
“Lewis said in his remarks the bank is in a “hurry” to return the U.S. capital and escape the government-imposed restrictions, with the timing tied to an overall economic recovery. The first sign of such a rebound will come from home prices, he said. ”
Normally, if you are in a hurry, you do not wait for some vague indicator, you do it as soon as you can. If Kenny is waiting for an economic recovery based on recovering home prices, we might in for a long wait.
#282 – I was only thinking of Northside Piers, but yes, there’s that too.
anyone care to elaborate how brooklyn is “getting ugly”? serious question
#220 BC Bob Take Care. You will be missed!!
I go through a pretty well off neighborhood every day from work and let me tell you the Charlie Browns is always packed with cars. These rich people are here to stay. Last time I checked, the talk show host guy on 101.5fm couldn’t understand it either. He mentioned every one of those eateries and malls in NJ are STILL PACKED during the weekends.
Folks, those that are unemployed in NJ are probably too poor to even afford a house in the first place.
#284 victorian:The first sign of such a rebound will come from home prices, he said. ”
So home prices go up during a recession???
The crazy thing about today’s rally is that you would normally see govt bonds down, but the 30 year is actually up. Also, the dollar is not behaving too badly.
Bad signs for the bulls, IMO.
BC have fun
#286 – skep – I was only referring to mounting failures in the condo/coop market, particularly Williamsburg, as it has been completely overdeveloped.
Although the news recently has seemed more violent. This could be due a number of factors, including the media’s love of selective reporting.
Vic,
Yeah once this peters out it may end up being the BIG ONE heading down.
#111 Age demographics? Then/Now?
What difference does that make?
————————————–
It’s easy to be complacent when you are young(er).
The older boomers are stressed, a lot of them have their wealth tied up in housing/ stock market. They are dealing with 80 plus year old parents and twenty something I want(s)
Some of them are trying to move out of the job market (they just want out). If they retire on fixed incomes what will that mean -things are inflating, not just here-everywhere. Transition, uncertainty ….I’m not an older boomer-just an observation.
has there been some notable violence in Brooklyn recently?
“Folks, those that are unemployed in NJ are probably too poor to even afford a house in the first place.”
200kplus: You sir are a douchebag. I am unemployed and have been wating to buy a house. I got lots of cash for a down payment. Once i get another job, I will buy at the end of the year.
Your comments are annoying as hell.
275 skeptic: yeah. NYC RE market will be interesting 6 months from now. 100.000 empty condos, available as rentals (60% off from current rents).
you’re a terrorist jamil.
When peopel don’t buy houses then they rent longer. As long as the sales are dead we will be Ok.
zieba,
who is reinvestor?
why am I always the last to know these things?
“And I am sure most people never thought the stock markets would hit 1997 levels either, and yet they did.”
C’mon. Stocks are national and international. RE is local.
kettle, you wrote a great paper, i can agree with most of it and found it all interesting. i wonder if you considered adjusting the median price for inflation? i would think, over a period of ten or twenty years, median price can be skewed upward significantly. looks like thats the only real difference between our charts.
Someone asked about these companies recently, and CNBC (yeah, I know) reported today on arms sales (personal, not tanks or anything). Sturm Ruger and S+W are up 60 and 55% respectively. I think this is a glaring short opportunity.
Years ago I looked into them when Clinton scared the bejeezus out of gun owners. Both companies don’t make a lot of their revenues from firearms sales to the public. Sturm Ruger at least used to make a lot from metal casting, and that can’t be too good lately. S+W typically made a lot from sales to police departments, and they aren’t buying.
Price runup is probably solely due to perception that the factories are running full tilt because folks want to beat the O-bama ban. Even if they were, that has to peter out sometime, and it will once everyone that wants a gun has one (or the O-man restricts sales).
So I think that these will both come back down to earth hard.
As Cramer would say, “sellsellsell”
zieba: grim doubles as reinv, clot, bc, mm, 3b, bi, shore. The rest are doubles for the other guy and the 3rd person frequenting the site is you.
#295 – has there been some notable violence in Brooklyn recently?
No one particular incident. It has been more a steady stream of “robbery, rape,assault” over the past few months. Since around Nov or so.
Again, whether this is due to actual increased crime, an increase in the reporting of crime or my increased awareness of the reported crime is in determinant.
Because you’re the oldest here. (I kid, I kid…)
Noone ever said but I think it was discussed once before. RE only comes out to post semi witty weak comedy, most of which is clearly tongue in cheek. No one real actually posts like this with such a shallow depth/range.
Veto,
on page 5 you can see that inflation adjusted income has stayed essentially flat since 1975.
thank you for the compliment
Veto,
which specific #’s or figures are you referring to?
abc news is reporting that dep treasury sec nominee Cohen withdrew. “issue” came up in vetting. Wtf? Must be something really bad.
kettle, i was referring to adjusting med home price for inflation, figure 2. the median price stays constant at 82. i guess you are taking median for cs. if adjusted for inflation, i it would increase gradually and would mean that prices dont have to go as far down to hit median in 2010-2011.
minor comment, im just interested in your reasoning for not adjusting med price to inflation.
All I’m saying is that the NJ RE market will not drop anywhere close to other states even though the price of housing skyrocketed in NJ compared to everywhere else.
The reason is most of the unemployed are most likely lower income that are most likely not owning a house anyways.
Combine that with all the rich folks that are somehow linked to the financial sector still have their jobs thus keeping it stable.
That has kept the essential unemployment from moving in too fast into NJ to cause the foreclosure effect. So by the time any kind of effect you have on foreclosures in NJ, some measures will have been put in effect to counter it. For example the current administration will force the lenders to re-negotiate so those that were stupid enough to buy a house they couldn’t afford now get to keep their houses.
I’m sitting in the sidelines as well but I am not getting my hopes up high that the NJ RE will drop to a more affordable level.
200kplus: You sir are a douchebag. I am unemployed and have been wating to buy a house. I got lots of cash for a down payment. Once i get another job, I will buy at the end of the year.
NO comments on stocks up???
Come on, recession is over!
For some reason I ma not very happy… As a matter of fact I simply do not care…. Now if we could only get that pesky unemployment numbers down to 4% again…
Wait lets all go work for government…
“some measures will have been put in effect to counter it.”
Your measures are useless. Resistance is futile.
al: teleprompter is still broken and geithner is on vacation?
Smith Wesson Holding Co beats out earnings.
Aye carramba!
All I’m saying is that the NJ RE market will not drop anywhere close to other states even though the price of housing skyrocketed in NJ compared to everywhere else.
The reason is most of the unemployed are most likely lower income that are most likely not owning a house anyways.
LOL…. That is all I can say . The hardest hit industries in NJ – Pharma, Manufacturing, Finance, IT…. You know low wages ones…
But those High paying Wall-Mart jobs are doing just fine!!! Waitresses are also doing great…
I guess school teachers are not facint too many layoff’s right now either..
You are right… NO effect here.
Just so you know, THIS would be 300K in 2006.
http://www.realtor.com/realestateandhomes-detail/Piscataway_NJ_08854_1107200230
Have fun!
does realtor . com gets you in moderation?
ket, another random question.
Figure 1, prices ran up from 63 to 83 in the 2.5 years 1987-1989 and then we busted but we only busted to a still elevated price of 76 and stayed there for a long time, which makes me wonder (1) if that will happen again this time or (2) if that is partially the result of inflation pushing the median price to a higher level over those 8 years, since i think inflation was pretty high in mid late 80s.
#309
And I am also unemployed. Where in the world do you get the idea that those who are unemployed now are mostly lower income? This deep recession is hitting folks in all strata of our society. I have noticed that there are lots of people in denial- they think somehow they are immune to being laid off.
I got it… It is actually easy…
200kplus is right..
Unemployed = zero income ~ low income
So technically he is right :)
veto,
great questions, will follow up later tonight
vic (284)-
The endtimes are upon us. These guys like Lewis don’t even think before they speak. I guess they figure spreading hope and happiness is enough to help their dead companies muddle through the next few months.
200K (288)-
A client of mine runs the municipal lot at South Amboy. They’ve lost 100 cars since Jan. 1. He also reports Sayreville is down 50%!
I’ll stick to the anecdata tracking people actually going to work. When you look at that stuff, you realize how dismal it’s getting. And, how fast it’s getting there.
I’d like to see Veto and Kettle on CNBC.
I’d like to see them interviewed by Dennis Kneale.
The only people that are immune to being laid off are state workers thanks to Corzine.
The rest are probably coming, but, like I said, it’s all in the timing. The current administration will try to stem the foreclosure issue so NJ will get to see that benefit thus keeping the housing prices up.
Look at my company for example, the first thing we look at to go are those that we feel can be replaced easily. So that means those that has less experience or younger will most likely be let go. I know if we need to, the kid down in shipping will be the first to go. The only thing the kid will lose is the car he bought brand new while making $10/hr. We’re not going to let go a purchasing person that’s been here for 10 years. We’re going to hold on for as long as possible.
So that’s where you’re seeing all the unemployment coming from.
I don’t see why it’s an insult to say that most of the unemployment in NJ are from jobs that are most likely lower income people. Every time you hear reports that the average wage in NJ rose, it means all these lower wage people lost their jobs!
kettle, yep, take your time, the questions have me scratching my own head.
i will also research more but even if med price shifts up with inflation, thats only half the answer since we still cant ignore that this crisis is significantly bigger than the S&L, and therefore would require a more severe correction. although, we should consider that gov programs aimed to keep prices up might offset some of that or at leeast delay it.
looking forward to hearing your final thoughts on it.
200K (309)-
You’re not a douchebag. You’re a bagholder.
“All I’m saying is that the NJ RE market will not drop anywhere close to other states even though the price of housing skyrocketed in NJ compared to everywhere else.”
#309 200K Did I not just explain this to you? Are you dense?
200K (322)-
What company are you with? Is it publicly traded?
If it is, I want to short it.
Dunder-Mifflin?
veto (323)-
Keep in mind that RTC/S&L was primarily commercial RE-based in nature.
right clot, good point
ZIONISTS AND THE COMPANIES THEY OWN CAUSED THE GLOBAL FINANCIAL CRISIS
TWO ISRAELI PRIME MINISTERS HAVE BEEN IRREVERSIBLY (FINALLY) CONVICTED OF COMMENTING MASSACRES AGAINST CIVILIANS
IN AN ATROCIOUS VIOLATION OF THE INTERNATIONAL UN LAWS AND RESOLUTIONS
ISRAEL TORTURED 864,396 {CLOSE TO ONE MILLION} CIVILIANS TO DEATH INCLUDING :
UN EMPLOYEES WHILE IN THERE UNIFORMS IN DUTY INSIDE UN MARKED BUILDINGS
INJURED CIVILIANS REFUGEES INSIDE (UN) MARKED BUILDINGS
CHILDREN WHILE IN THEIR UNIFORMS INSIDE (UN) MARKED ELEMENTARY SCHOOLS
INJURED CIVILIANS IN HOSPITALS AND MEDICAL DOCTORS AND NURSES TOO
RED CROSS AMBULANCE PARAMEDICS WHILE IN THERE UNIFORMS IN DUTY INSIDE MARKED BUILDINGS AND MINIVANS
ISRAEL IS VIOLATING INTERNATIONAL ((UN)) LAWS AND RESOLUTIONS AND STILL
OCCUPYING ARABIC LANDS FOR DECADES
********BOYCOTT ISRAEL AND THE SUPPORTING COMPANIES********