Wave of foreclosures coming in 2011?

From CNBC:

The Foreclosure Dump

It’s coming, no question.

Today’s report from RealtyTrac serves as a warning to big banks, Fannie, Freddie and local communities; The foreclosure glut is coming, and they’d better be ready to get rid of that glut in a big way.

2010 saw a record number of bank repossessions, over a million, even with a big drop in volume toward the end of the year, thanks to the robo-signing scandal and ensuing foreclosure freezes.

“Early indications in January were that this robo-signing related delay will be over by the end of first quarter if not sooner,” says RealtyTrac’s Rick Sharga. “I think we’re going to see a significant spike in foreclosure activity early in 2011, and that will contribute in part to 2011 being a record year.”

Sharga estimates as many as a quarter of a million foreclosures that should have happened in 2010 will now be pushed into the 2011 numbers, and added to an already huge supply of bank owned properties. The four biggest banks already have close to $7 billion worth of foreclosed properties (REO) on their books, and Fannie and Freddie have about $24 billion collectively. While REO sales make up about one third of all sales in the current market, there is an estimated 3 year supply.

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188 Responses to Wave of foreclosures coming in 2011?

  1. grim says:

    From the WSJ:

    N.J. Court Asks Whether Cuts Hurt Schools

    The New Jersey Supreme Court said it needs more evidence of how reductions in the state’s budget have affected public schools before deciding on a legal challenge to the cuts, according to an order released Thursday.

    A court-appointed special master will hold a hearing Tuesday to determine whether a cut of roughly $1 billion in state subsidies to local school districts prevented the state from delivering “thorough and efficient” public education, as required in the state constitution. A decision could affect state spending in the upcoming budget.

    An urban-education advocate had challenged Gov. Chris Christie’s cuts in the budget for this school year, saying the governor broke with a previous court order to keep school funding at certain levels.

    The court heard oral arguments in the case earlier this month, part of the long-running Abbott v. Burke fight over school funding. Lawyers from the state attorney general’s office argued that New Jersey was forced to make cuts of roughly $1 billion, depending on what funding is counted, because the recession squeezed tax collections and other revenue. The advocate, Newark-based Education Law Center, said the state was not providing enough money to deliver a constitutionally sufficient education.

  2. Mike says:

    Good Morning New Jersey

  3. grim says:

    From Bloomberg:

    NJ governor proposes health care cost increase

    Gov. Chris Christie proposed significantly higher health insurance premiums for hundreds of thousands of public workers in New Jersey on Thursday, saying overly generous benefits are threatening to bankrupt the system.

    Christie told a packed town hall audience in Bergen County that state and local workers, teachers, police and firefighters must begin paying more for their medical and dental benefits if the system is to remain afloat. The health benefits fund is $67 billion shy of meeting its eventual obligations.

    “We have to have a plan where everybody has skin in the game,” Christie said to applause from a supportive crowd of 500 in Paramus.

    Christie wants benefits changes that make the health insurance system more like the private sector or the federal government, with employees paying about one-third of the costs of whatever benefits plan they choose. The government picks up the other two-thirds.

    That would amount to a significant increase from the 1.5 percent of salary employees now pay. A teacher earning $60,000 now pays $900 a year toward a plan that costs $22,000, Christie said. Under his proposal, that teacher would contribute $7,333 a year for an identical plan.

  4. Mikeinwaiting says:

    Grim 3 With the biweekly pay period of teachers that is $305 off the top , they will go nuts. On the other hand paying $610 a month for the kind of coverage they get is a deal, welcome to reality.

  5. grim says:

    From the Huffington Post:

    Citigroup Was On The Verge Of Failure, New Report Finds; Rescue Was Based On ‘Gut Instinct’

    Citigroup, the nation’s third-largest bank by assets, was on the verge of being closed by regulators the week of Nov. 24, 2008 as depositors rapidly withdrew money and the bank’s counterparties declined to provide it credit, according to a government report released Thursday.

    The new findings shed light on the degree to which Citigroup, the financial services behemoth with a long history of finding itself in trouble and receiving government support, was actually in danger of failing during the fall of 2008. Until now, few were aware that Citi was perilously close to being shut down.

    “We were on the verge of having to close this institution because it can’t meet its liquidity Monday morning,” said Sheila Bair, chairman of the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation, during a meeting the previous Sunday night, according to the report by the Special Inspector General for the Troubled Asset Relief Program.

    “Without substantial government intervention,” said another FDIC official, bank regulators and Citigroup “project that Citibank will be unable to pay obligations or meet expected deposit outflows next week,” according to the report.

  6. Make the parasites pay 30% of their healthcare. That little dose of reality-lite will gobsmack them.

  7. 30 year realtor says:

    The flow of foreclosed real estate to market in North Jersey has been impacted by the document scandals and we’re just getting warmed up. Based on the recent Ibanez decision it would be reasonable to assume that there will be periods ahead when all or some states suspend foreclosures at some point in the process slowing the flow to sale.

    Been doing almost exclusively REO for about 20 years. Never believed that during the biggest REO avalanche in history I would be worried about where work would be coming from.

  8. grim says:

    From the Star Ledger:

    N.J. local taxes jump 7 percent in past year

    Had the state’s new 2-percent limit on property tax increases been in effect last year, most New Jersey towns wouldn’t have been in compliance.

    In fact, most would not even have been close.

    A Star-Ledger examination of taxation around the state found that local taxes jumped 7 percent last year. Fewer than a quarter of New Jersey towns had increases of less than 2 percent.

    Numbers like these have revived one of the oldest debates in local Jersey governance: Should towns combine services with their neighbors in order to cut budgets or are Jerseyans too enamored of home rule to embrace such a move?

    Such ideas have been rejected countless times before. But now many politicians and Statehouse watchers argue that only by convincing towns to pare away luxuries like separate school systems and local police departments in the tiniest of boroughs can property tax hikes decrease anytime soon.

    “If you’re going to maintain the level of services you have — schools, police, garbage collection, snow removal — you have to pay for them,” said Deborah Howlett, the president of the Trenton-based New Jersey Policy Perspective.

  9. Essex says:

    6. Parasites. And you bitched and moaned that you couldn’t get your wife into the teet sucking business. You know man, for a mental case, you are pretty consistent.

  10. Essex says:

    I got another suggestion for you Chip. Get a f*cking hobby. Your bombast is tiresome. You are the equivalent of the bearded *sshole outside of the building carrying a sign THE END IS NEAR. OK, so the end is near, we F*cking get it!!! So enjoy each day like it was your last *sshole.

  11. Essex says:

    My rage is centered on assh*les today. Every goddam non conformist piece of sh*t I see. Each and every nerdy d*uchbag with a penchant for gun loving rampages will feel the heel of my boot. No gun needed. Just plant the face firmly on the curb and stomp. Rinse and repeat.

  12. Libtard says:

    Essex,

    It was Gator who applied in vain to hop on the gravy train. She did not have any inside connections, nor was disabled so she didn’t qualify. What was it for you? A connection or a disability?

  13. Essex says:

    Naw Lib, Clot/Doom/Chip discussed the fact that his wife is an experienced designer and hasn’t been able to break into the teaching game. Connections do help. As do qualifications. But it is very tough to get a teaching job, so we should denigrate those who do the job, because hey, nothing says I want your job like vitriol.

  14. cooper says:

    re main article – whose buying/going to buy these distressed homes ?

    from yesterday-
    i used to drive a 1982 jeep scrambler
    total piece of crap but i loved it- big tires
    roll bar, an lots of lights
    it burnt oil almost as fast as it burnt gas
    pure dream car

  15. Essex says:

    Anyway. F*ck the lot of you.

  16. gary says:

    Today’s report from RealtyTrac serves as a warning to big banks, Fannie, Freddie and local communities; The foreclosure glut is coming, and they’d better be ready to get rid of that glut in a big way.

    And then there were none….

    http://www.thetruthaboutmortgage.com/interest-rate-reset-chart/

  17. gary says:

    Christie wants benefits changes that make the health insurance system more like the private sector or the federal government, with employees paying about one-third of the costs of whatever benefits plan they choose. The government picks up the other two-thirds.

    There are no more benefits in the private sector. They’re temp jobs with a max period of 12 to 18 months.

  18. sx (9)-

    My wife and I know full well that by the time she becomes a full-time teacher, bennies will be long gone and/or the whole country will be engulfed in civil war. We’re to the point where we now just say “bennies” when we want a giggle.

    BTW, we’ve been uninsured for over a year.

  19. gary says:

    “If you’re going to maintain the level of services you have — schools, police, garbage collection, snow removal — you have to pay for them,” said Deborah Howlett, the president of the Trenton-based New Jersey Policy Perspective.

    Another parasite…

  20. As for the “recovering economy” thing, the wine company I caught on with hasn’t paid me for anything yet. Started selling in November.

    The excuses they give me are pretty creative, though.

  21. gary (19)-

    I’m perfectly capable of burning my own trash and securing my home on my own.

    If the house catches on fire, I’ll happily watch it burn to the ground.

    I also anticipate having more than enough free time pretty soon to homeschool my kids, as well (although I think homeschooling is creepy).

  22. Essex says:

    Doom. I’ve worked for a lot of shitty firms and been screwed around by the best socio-paths in the business. One more reason for the unionization movement. Think about it. Fair play for workers. Gee what a concept.

  23. I have many question about your post. I think u should write lot of more details. But Thanks anymore

  24. cooper says:

    23
    Nicoli Koloff is that you ?

  25. sx (22)-

    I don’t need some parasite union’s help in order to drive down to Cherry Hill and take apart an office with a baseball bat. BTW, I’m actually considered management (and an independent contractor, to boot) in this company.

    I’d sooner off myself than join a union.

  26. Essex says:

    Rethink the vitriol folks.

  27. Look at it this way: we could all be in Illinois.

  28. Find a fire, and toss the vitriol onto it.

  29. Burn, mf’er, burn!!!!!

  30. JJ says:

    I saw that group in concert once, back in the day. They pulled up in a purple stretch limo. That group had street cred.

    Debt Supernova says:
    January 14, 2011 at 8:19 am

    Burn, mf’er, burn!!!!!

  31. Schrodinger's Cat says:

    RE # 5

    “We were on the verge of having to close this institution because it can’t meet its liquidity Monday morning,” said Sheila Bair, chairman of the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation, during a meeting the previous Sunday night, according to the report by the Special Inspector General for the Troubled Asset Relief Program.

    Correct me if i missed something, but isnt this the exact circumstance in which the institution should have been shuttered by FDIC and resolved? Oh, I forgot, everybody gets a trophy now and there is no second place. WE ARE ALL WINNERS!!!!

  32. Schrodinger's Cat says:

    Essex,

    That is a great Internet Tough Guy act you have going there. But your threats come off as whining not threatening. You need to work on your tone.

  33. chicagofinance says:

    ket: all due respect; STFU

  34. Schrodinger's Cat says:

    Essex,

    Unions, in the real world push for equal outcome which by definition means that some must be held back below their potential while others must be held higher then their real potential. What you really want is equal opportunity to fail or succeed based on your individual capacity.
    I have had plenty of first hand experience working with a union who has filed numerous complaints against me for doing “to much work” and “taking work from union employees” I have literally had to deal with a union rep telling me that i couldn’t perform my work (as an outside contractor brought in for a specific project) because only “bob” was allowed to operate machine X and he was working somewhere else in the facility that day, when I knew for a fact that the 3 people next to me were all trained and capable of operating said machine so that i could perform my task.
    Modern unions SOP is to hold everyone down to the lowest common denominator.

  35. Schrodinger's Cat says:

    #33

    I love you to sweetheart. big sloppy kisses

  36. Shore Guy says:

    Look, folks. The housing industry is ill and has been for some time now. Trying to prevent FK is like someone with the flu trying not to vomit. It is going to happen eventually and all that trying to prevent it does is to prolong the agony. It is better to get it over with and begin the healing.

  37. Yikes says:

    Debt Supernova says:
    January 12, 2011 at 1:44 pm

    Does anyone here know if C-8 is potent enough to blow open the typical branch bank’s walk-in safe door?

    You’re a riot, Clot

  38. Shore Guy says:

    Real earnings down .4% Nov Rosecrans.

  39. Shore Guy says:

    Nov to Dec that is. Bloody android help.

  40. Shore Guy says:

    Rosencrans, Guildenstern, andthe housing market are dead.

  41. Libtard says:

    “Rosencrans, Guildenstern, andthe housing market are dead.”

    How about Mummenschanz?

  42. Pat says:

    Man I miss getting crap from people.

  43. freedy says:

    retiring chief in closter gets 195k for sick days . what a joke

  44. Libtard says:

    “retiring chief in closter gets 195k for sick days”

    Rethink the vitriol folks.

    Think about it. Fair play for workers. Gee what a concept.

  45. nj escapee says:

    NJ taxpayers are the never-ending fountain

    “retiring chief in closter gets 195k for sick days”

  46. Libtard says:

    “NJ taxpayers are the never-ending fountain”

    Like the one in front of Hovnanian that ChiFi likes to reminisce?

  47. freedy says:

    the question is . How much more can/will the taxpayers take? or are they trapped/don’t give a f k .?

  48. Al Mossberg says:

    Down with the gov tit suckers. When the states are finally allowed to go bankrupt we can finally destroy the parasitic voting block and entertain ourselves at night watching them riot in the streets.

    Jim Willie has some juicy tid bits on the real estate recovery, “My theory is simple. If the entire USEconomy depended upon the housing boom to expand from 2003 to 2007, then it will be capable of collapsing the same structures given the extreme vulnerability to debt. The vicious cycle will be powerful, unstoppable, and deadly.”

    http://harveyorgan.blogspot.com/

  49. the still_lookings says:

    I don’t get sick days *or* vacation… If my ass ain’t at work… I don’t earn money.. And I don’t get holidays or weekends off.

    Nor do I have a pension or health coverage after retirement (if it’s before 65) but our group is working on the health coverage thing.

    sl

  50. Al Mossberg says:

    47.

    Freedy,

    Theres plenty more room for looting the taxpayers. We havent seen anything yet.

  51. Al Mossberg says:

    I suspect this is going to be a particularly doomy day. Fireworks in the Comex.

  52. BlindJust says:

    Was looking at a property purchased in ’94 for 380,976.

    Current list $570K. No updates except septic. Location is decent (not a busy road)

    FV (2.5%/16 yr) = $565K

    I would have thought that 2.5% would approximate fair market. Perhaps I should be using 1.5% ($483K) as I think that’s what it should sell for.

  53. Shore Guy says:

    Sl,

    At least you have “professional courtesy.”

  54. BlindJust says:

    house next door (similar size) sold for $820 on 11/15/2010.

  55. d2b says:

    More than anything, one should look that the $22,000 cost for benefits. I have recently gone on COBRA because of a layoff and my benefits are $1,100 per month for a family. I have adequate benefits with high deductibles and that is too high. I work for a small company that self-insures. I can not believe that the state can’t do better. I think that one of the major insurers could design a plan with adequate deductibles that costs under $1400 per month.
    I have to think that some insurers are looking at Obamacare as an opportunity to raise rates without consequences because they can blame it on the legislation.

  56. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    (32) cat,

    Until an internet tough guy is willing to meet me in Weehawken (history buff that I am), I don’t take the vitriol seriously. I decided it wasn’t worth my time to feed the trolls.

    And I do note that when I did call some out, fabius, f.k.a. pgc, was the only one to man up. We disagree still, but I respect that he had the stones to show.

  57. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    (51) al

    Agreed. It be ugly.

    That toe I dipped in the water just got snapped off.

  58. Marilyn says:

    seriously 1,400 a month for health insurance who the heck can afford this?? This is totally out of control. Thought the great O was going to help!!

  59. Al Mossberg says:

    Looks like Bernanke is creating riots in the ME with his exportation of inflation.

    Nom,

    Its all naked shorting. Physical demand has never been higher.

  60. Al Mossberg says:

    58.

    Re: Healthcare. Its going to get much much worse. Im just hoping that a 2 tier system can be maintained. One for those who can afford it and one for those that cant. If that cant be done then people are just going to die. Its that simple.

  61. Shore Guy says:

    We pay over $16,000 a year.

  62. Libtard says:

    Others Got Early ‘Poke’ on Facebook Deals

    http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704307404576080303931023990.html?mod=WSJ_business_whatsNews

    Here’s another example of the en masse looting and raping. But keep arguing why Repubs are better than Dems or vice versa. Seems to me it will be a moot argument when you are eventually reduced to begging. Hope you have a nice voice, but no addictions.

  63. NJSerf says:

    (43) So after what? 20-30 years of service the guy doesn’t take a sick day and receives a bonus of 195K and its a big deal?

    Take a little look higher at the big bankers bonuses that are being subsidized by the USG. They make that 195K look like pocket change.

    (61) Shore Guy – What percentage of your income does that come out to? How many people are covered? Also what level of coverage and deductibles? Lets keep it all in perspective. Just posting that info amounts to somebody saying their car payment is high when they’re driving a 7 series beamer.

  64. Nation of Wussies HEHEHE says:

    Re Citi,

    Given the size of the company some sort of bailout was necessary to preserve the system. The problem for me is the fact that the same incompetent management team was left in place and nothing was done to break up the Citi, and the other TBTF’s for that matter, in a controlled manner so that these problems do not re-occur in the future. Essentially nothing has changed and the same badly run banks are going to come running to the government yet again when the next crisis they create occurs.

  65. Nation of Wussies HEHEHE says:

    Bonus Watch ‘11: Morgan Stanley Puts A Fine Point On It

    http://dealbreaker.com/2011/01/bonus-watch-11-morgan-stanley/#

  66. nj escapee says:

    NJ Serf, I haven’t called out sick in 30 years. If I don’t use my sick, vacation, personal days in the calendar year I lose em.

  67. Libtard says:

    Is any else annoyed by the constantly repeated, “Look at Wall Street compensation” every damn time someone points out an inequity between what the 99.9% of those in the private sector have compared to what the 100% in the public sector have?

    We don’t all work on Wall Street ya dense public serpents. Actually, I don’t even know anyone who does!

  68. NJSerf says:

    (66) NJ Escapee – First, your work ethic is commendable.

    Second, I’m sure at the beginning of your employment, your employer let you know that sick days that go un-used would not carry over or be paid out. They laid out the rules and you followed them since.

    In the case of this chief, some bonehead on the other side of the negotiating table did not think of future repercussions in allowing the sick days to be monetized and carried over. Lesson learned. These sweet-heart deals are becoming a thing of the past, very few new public employees get access to this sort of largess.

    Look at that 195K as a small price to pay for electing idiots to negotiate contracts with their municipal employees.

  69. JJ says:

    Because looks and personality count too,

    Libtard says:
    January 14, 2011 at 11:08 am

    Is any else annoyed by the constantly repeated, “Look at Wall Street compensation” every damn time someone points out an inequity between what the 99.9% of those in the private sector have compared to what the 100% in the public sector have?

    We don’t all work on Wall Street ya dense public serpents. Actually, I don’t even know anyone who does!

  70. Juice Box says:

    JJ – This morning on 660 the FAN Boomer & Carton would not take the odds on the Jet game and a bunch of die hard Jet fans that called in to the Radio show were betting on the Pats to win. Spread is now 8 1/2 with about 75% of the bets going on New England.

  71. NJSerf says:

    (67) Because the reference was to a single retiring individual that was fairly high on the union food-chain.

    For every one of those chiefs, there are plenty of rank and file employees that retire and cash out maybe 5-10K of sick days(if they’re lucky), most of the time they are forced out due to budget cuts and never get to their pension sweet spots.

  72. Juice Box says:

    re: pension reform NJ.

    FYI the $7 billion being paid out annually now in New J ersey will grow to $10 billion and then $15 billion in only 4 more years as an avalanche of Baby Boomer retirements occur. All the while Municipal and State contribution deferrals continue. In 4 short years there will be only $30 billion left in the State coffers. Most of the plan reform passed last year is just another a ponzi scheme some 20 years before the changes brought are due to kick in.

    I have been saying Congress might move to rope in the State and Municipal workers Pension plans into a new Social Security 2.0 because they are not paying into Federal social security now, there is some talk down in DC about it.

    I am holding off on being a hostage bagholder of the socialist state of NJ for now, until this pension boondoggle is resolved. Paying another 4-5% in state tax and perhaps double in municipal taxes is not going to happen. I will hop the nearest border before I let that happen.

  73. UpstateNY says:

    I’ll preface this by saying that we have some great teachers in our district, but pension/healthcare costs are going to be a huge issue for us in NY as well.

    At a public listening session last night, the school board said they will be about $932k short of a balanced budget right now with a 3% tax hike. $908k of the shortfall is due to increased pension contributions (jumping from 11% of salaries to 16% b/c NYS Teachers pension has seriously underperformed the market as of late) and a 10% increase healthcare costs.

    Assets at the Pension fund have fallen from about $96 billion to $74 billion in the last couple of years while plan participants have grown another 1.5%. We’re looking at cutting more programs, shutting an elementary school, and eliminating positions because to meet obligations (Pension/HC) that we have no control over.

  74. NJGator says:

    Lib – If I recall correctly, my downfall in attempting to secure employeement with the state Judiciary was telling the Essex County Jury Manager during my interview that I was looking to leave my current job because I was not a 9 to 5er and I wanted to find a way to devote more time to my job by cutting out my NYC commute. I did also mention that I had a hardworking staff with a similar work ethic which enabled me to be so successful at my current job. I am guessing that he did not think that work ethic and level of staff expectations would be a good fit for the union employees that I would be tasked with supervising.

  75. NJGator says:

    I was no naive in my younger days…sigh..

  76. nj escapee says:

    UpState, Looks like local government is heading down the GM / Chrysler path.

  77. Shore Guy says:

    I was so much older then, I’m younger than that now.

  78. Anon E. Moose says:

    Debt [18];

    Cartels really suck, don’t they?

  79. Shore Guy says:

    Serf,

    What percentage of our income is of no moment, as the cost would be the same if we earned just five figures.

  80. Painhrtz says:

    How about the parasites get told they can not receive their full benefits until they reach Social Security mandated reitrement age. Pay the vig on health benefits like the rest of us, and quit whining.

    Seriously, crying about increases in your health benefits when most people can barely afford them is BS. The sick day scam is really gets me. My grandfather had a years worth of sick days when he was getting ready to retire at 70, they wouldn’t pay him off for them so he took a year off sick and added another year of service to his pension. I told him it was public robbery, he said sure it was, just because he was Italian and not in the mob didn’t mean there were no lessons gleaned from his friendly childhood goodfellas. Shook my head and muttered we are f*cked. He takes home as much in pension and social security as I do working, all with no college degree.

    Glad I worked hard and did not game the system. Sarcasm off/

  81. JJ says:

    That Jets/Pats game is soo hyped beyond belief, if it is a tight game win or lose might be the most watched non championship NFL game ever.

    Juice Box says:
    January 14, 2011 at 11:19 am

    JJ – This morning on 660 the FAN Boomer & Carton would not take the odds on the Jet game and a bunch of die hard Jet fans that called in to the Radio show were betting on the Pats to win. Spread is now 8 1/2 with about 75% of the bets going on New England.

  82. NJSerf says:

    (81) Pain – what are you talking about?

    See above, it doesn’t sound like Shore Guy has any problem paying for his health care, he was even kind enough to let us know how much it costs him.

    And ask yourself this question: If it was you, and not your grandfather in that situation would you honestly just forfeit those days?

    Can you really blame the guy for signing up for employment under favorable terms and then gaming it for his own maximum gain?

  83. JJ says:

    So I read in the paper the other day that average person kisses 14 different people in a lifetime. Can that be possible, seems like a crazy low number. Maybe it counts in different nationalities and cultures. But seems to me someone who went away to school and lives in NY would be way beyond that number.

    What do you think the number would be for a normal Tri-state person? Kissed 10 different people, 20, 200 etc.?

  84. Schrodinger's Cat says:

    NJ Serf

    The bigger question is who gets stiffed? Short sighted promises of exorbitant benefits were made, and we now have 2 choices. The first choice is to limit the payout of those benefits and keep the payout in line with available funding, and the second choice is to payout the benefits fully even thought they are clearly outrageous and in doing so screw the taxpayer. A fair portion of the existing taxpayers very likely had no say in any way shape or form in promising the exorbitant benefits.
    Pointing fingers at this point is useless and changes nothing. We all have to realize that the money to continue paying out the full benefits does not exist if we also meet all of our other financial obligations. From this point, the question is evens simpler, and boils down to who gets screwed and how much, not IF.

    This situation was essentially unavoidable, as any politician who told the financial truth and fought against these insane benefits would have promptly lost his seat to a politician who promised what the key constituencies wanted. It’s no different then the state pension plans assuming a long term 8% annual return. if they were honest, they would plan for a 3% – 5% long term return. Of course if they did that, then all of their promises are instantly shown to be insolvent.

    The reason that governments at all levels are taking so much heat is that they are the only ones who can continue to play such fanciful accounting games. Any business would promptly go bankrupt trying to play the games that the government is. The only difference between the 2 is that the government has the force of arms to enforce their tax edicts, private industry does not and must work with what it can produce and still stay in business.

  85. Painhrtz says:

    Serf, you know in a vacuum I would say yes and maintained the moral high ground. the honest answer is I would have done the exact same thing. Anyone who says differently is being dishonest with themselves and us. I’m not railing against my grandfather for acting as every other public employee acts, rather the unionized system that rewards the behavior.

    Yes, the rant was a little misguided but I wanted to help illustrate the point. Sooner or later somebody is going to have to have to put on their big boy pants and get honest with the public unions. Let them make the decisions, do they make the hard choice on cuts to make sure their membership all get a piece of an ever shrinking pie. Doing so means aligning benfits and pay structures with private industry while removing perks. Allow the members to become more responsible for their own well being and saving for their own futures. The alternative is continuing down the road, in which my grandfather was a willing participant, that ensures lottery payouts for sick days, rewards unproductivity to the lowest common denominator, and ultimately will make sure no one in the end from their membership gets anything.

  86. House Whine says:

    Since my crystal ball tells me that NJ property taxes will keep going up, outpacing what I feel is affordable,I will not trade up to a more expensive home. We can definitely afford more house but I resent the thought of paying even higher taxes. So, we make no moves even though our finances tell us we can. I have to think there are many more like us in this state. In fact, I don’t even want to add on to my house for fear of the taxes. Maybe I am cutting off my nose to spite my face, I don’t know. It’s just an emotional reaction to all that is going on.

  87. nj escapee says:

    Whine, Clot is correct when he says that real estate is consumption, not an investment.

  88. House Whine says:

    88- Yes, I totally get that. However, I still don’t like getting “ripped off”.

  89. Marilyn says:

    #87, I am doing the same thing. I can afford a much better and bigger home, but chose to live with the hillbillies!! I just have a serious problem paying huge tax bills to the schools with NO KIDS. I did not have children. Its stay with the hillbillies and live as cheap as you can in NJ!!!!!!!!

  90. House Whine says:

    90- That’s funny..living with the hillbillies. As long as my neighbors are decent, take care of their property, and don’t hassle us, I don’t care much as to their status. I like being comfortable. I didn’t read the book, “The Millionaire Next Door” for nothing.

  91. Painhrtz says:

    Oh give me f*cking break:

    First Lady Michelle Obama on Thursday urged parents to teach their children tolerance in response to the deadly Tucson shooting spree that touched off debate about political rhetoric.

    http://news.yahoo.com/s/afp/20110114/pl_afp/uscrimeshootingpoliticsfirstlady_20110114004825

    Serously tolerance!!?? Tolerance was not going to keep the bipolar looney toon from shooting up the Circle K or wherever the f*ck Giffords was holding that rally at was called, whether he was taught it or not. Asking demorats and republicons to be tolerant and civil is like having a wolverine for a pet. Sure it may look cuddly and cute but it will rip your eyes out and eat you if given the chance.

    They all really take the cake. I’m very tolerant I like everyone but the stupid and subservient

  92. chicagofinance says:

    I should fill it with hair gel…….

    46.Libtard says:
    January 14, 2011 at 9:53 am
    “NJ taxpayers are the never-ending fountain”
    Like the one in front of Hovnanian that ChiFi likes to reminisce?

  93. JJ says:

    America must be a very tolerant country already as we are already able to put up with the Obama’s.

    Painhrtz says:
    January 14, 2011 at 12:48 pm

    Oh give me f*cking break:

    First Lady Michelle Obama on Thursday urged parents to teach their children tolerance in response to the deadly Tucson shooting spree that touched off debate about political rhetori

  94. Marilyn says:

    Only one big downfall of living with the NJ Hillbillies is the nights Springer pay preview is on, my newspaper arrives late or never!!!

  95. Painhrtz says:

    Marilyn Sussex or Warren?

  96. Marilyn says:

    96 actually I am the Northern most tip of Morris County, Lake Stockholm. Jefferson Township is the top two streets, Morris County, Hardyston is the bottom, sussex.

    Get this, My postal address is Stockholm, Hardyston, I pay my taxes to Jefferson in Morris. If I walk down my street it become Sussex County just 2 houses!! However we do have hillbillies right here in good old Lake Stockholm.

    Here is a cross section of my neighborhood.
    Really fat slobs who love Walmart and Burger King
    Men with lawn tractors drive by the house
    Pain pill heads who are on disability and sleep all day
    Keystone Light drinkers who say they dont have a problem but drink a case a day
    Nudists who go to place that I thought were nursing homes called Sunny Rest in PA, and Goodlands in Hackettstown. I found out quick they were not NURSING HOMES!!!

    its a crew.

  97. Painhrtz says:

    Know that area well have a buddy who lives in Lk hopactcong less than a block from the lake, weirdest distribution of people in the world.

  98. NJGator says:

    Price drops 30% on famed Ferris Bueller home

    The price of the famed Ferris Bueller house on the shores of Lake Michigan was recently reduced by more than 30% due to depressed market conditions, according to the house’s real estate agent Meladee Hughes.

    The price for the two building complex, which in the movie is owned by Cameron’s father, includes the main house and a pavilion or guest house. It now stands at $1.65 million, down from $2.3 million in September 2009. In comparison, a 1961 Ferrari like the one trashed in the movie “Ferris Bueller’s Day Off” priced at a little more that $10 million in an auction in Maranello, Italy in 2008, according to CNN Money.

    The house is not so lucky.

    “There are just not that many people buying houses,” Hughes told HousingWire in an interview. “The general market is down, and it’s hard to get financing.”

    The property is located in Highland Park, Ill. According to the Illinois Association of Realtors’ latest numbers, home sales in the state were down 24.9% in the third quarter compared to the one year ago period. In Lake County, which encompasses Highland Park, home sales were down 20.5%.

    In addition to lowering the price of the house, Hughes said the estate is now helping finance the home. She said if a qualified buyer comes to the table with 20% down payment, the estate will finance them and act as the mortgagee for two to five years.

    “That way maybe someone who couldn’t originally afford the home could buy it,” Hughes said.

    http://www.housingwire.com/2011/01/12/price-drops-30-on-famed-ferris-bueller-home

  99. Juice Box says:

    re # 79 – Bloomberg scrubbed the story a bit.

    Vincent McCrudden is a mad-as-hell hedge fund manager from Long Island is he suing the SEC, CFTC, FINRA, NFA and several officials at those regulators for harassment, seeking $1 billion.

    http://www.finalternatives.com/node/15202

  100. Anon E. Moose says:

    Gator [101];

    In addition to lowering the price of the house, Hughes said the estate is now helping finance the home. She said if a qualified buyer comes to the table with 20% down payment, the estate will finance them and act as the mortgagee for two to five years.

    “That way maybe someone who couldn’t originally afford the home could buy it,” Hughes said.

    Rent-to-Own on a $1.65 MM property! I love it! Like Tanta said, we’re all subprime now.

  101. Juice Box says:

    Go Chritie GO!

    New Jersey Slashes Bond Offerting 51% After Christie’s `Bankrupt’ Comments

    ew Jersey Governor Chris Christie has learned that talking about state insolvency may have a cost.

    About 20 minutes after Christie, 48, told a town-hall meeting in Paramus today that health-care costs “will bankrupt” the state, the New Jersey Economic Development Authority cut its tax-exempt school-related bond offering by more than half to $712.3 million.

    “It doesn’t help to try and sell a $1 billion deal on the same day the governor is talking about the state going bankrupt due to health-care costs,” said Mike Pietronico, who oversees $360 million as chief executive officer of Miller Tabak Asset Management in New York.

    http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-01-13/new-jersey-slashes-bond-sale-51-after-christie-s-bankrupt-comments.html

  102. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    [104] juice

    YEAH! I did a lot of muni and state agency bond work at my last firm, and if this trend continues, they are absolutely fcuked!

    Go, Chris, Go!

  103. Mike says:

    Don’t worry NJ will be out of debt when they start collecting $10.00 fees to license bikes, if this yoyo politician has her way

  104. nj escapee says:

    alright, what’s happening with gold? I’m tempted to make a purchase. Is it time to buy a position or should I hold off?

  105. Juice Box says:

    re: – #107 – needed the money to bet against the Jets so I sold off my position.

  106. freedy says:

    Ca. gov. cut 48k cell phones. wonder how many we have here in NJ.?

  107. nj escapee says:

    JB, 108, Got the message. thanks

  108. Al Mossberg says:

    107.

    Just naked shorting and some fears about China’s reserve ratio.

    Since Christie cant seem to make headway in negotiations with the unions I suspect he is going to play hardball and drive the state into insolvency. Now we just need the rules changed so that states can go bankrupt.

    Either way it doesnt matter but an ideal outcome would be a Fed bailout via QE 3.

    Im looking forward to watching more riot footage as Bernanke wrecks havoc around the world with his printing press. Ben isnt stupid. He’s a fing madman.

  109. Libtard says:

    Whoever goes BK first will surely benefit the most, unless of course you are Lehman or Bear Stearns.

  110. grim says:

    alright, what’s happening with gold?

    I was a seller two weeks ago…

  111. Libtard says:

    Damn…I’m still waiting for a retracement to get in :P Almost pulled the trigger right around 800. Gold, like our gubmints lack of austerity has been amazingly consistent.

  112. yo'me says:

    Apartment dwellers could be facing double-digit rent increases in the coming years as a shortage of new multifamily units coupled with a rise in prime renter-age households gives landlords clout they haven’t see since the mid-1990s, development experts said Thursday.

    http://www.marketwatch.com/story/double-digit-rent-hikes-are-on-the-way-2011-01-13?dist=countdown

  113. grim says:

    Outraged? I thought there was no bubble in 2005?

    From Bloomberg:

    Fed Officials Saw Housing Bubble in 2005, Didn’t Alter Policy

    Federal Reserve staff and policy makers identified a housing bubble in 2005, and failed to alter a predictable path of interest-rate increases to slow down the expansion of mortgage credit, transcripts from Open Market Committee meetings that year show.

    Led by then-Chairman Alan Greenspan, the FOMC raised the benchmark lending rate in quarter-point increments to 4.25 percent from 2.25 percent at the end of December 2004. The committee also removed uncertainty about the pace of rate increases by telegraphing that future moves would be “measured” in every statement.

    The “measured” pace language helped fuel the housing boom by keeping longer-term interest rates low and was inappropriate at the time given the uncertainties about both inflation and asset prices, said Marvin Goodfriend, a professor at Carnegie Mellon University in Pittsburgh.

    “It was a major mistake of the Fed,” said Goodfriend, who attended some of the 2005 meetings as a policy adviser to the Richmond Fed. “It gave markets a sense that the Fed was on top of everything to a degree that wasn’t the case. It gave the impression that this was a mechanical adjustment to normality. The market was overconfident.”

  114. Juice Box says:

    re #116 – There was also the little chuckle the Fed had in 2005 over that TV show
    ‘Flip This House’:

    From the Fed Meeting Minutes.

    “I offer one more piece of evidence that I think almost surely suggests that the end is near in this sector. While channel-surfing the other night, to the annoyance of my otherwise very patient wife, I came across a new television series on the Discovery Channel entitled ‘Flip That House,'” economist David Stockton said, prompting a roomful of laughter according to the transcript. “As far as I could tell, the gist of the show was that with some spackling, a few strategically placed azaleas and access to a bank, you too could tap into the great real-estate wealth machine. It was enough to put even the most ardent believer in market efficiency into existential crisis. [Laughter]”

    http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2011/01/14/fed-economist-greenspan-flip-that-house_n_809138.html

  115. grim says:

    (cont)

    New York Fed researcher Richard Peach dismissed press reports describing a bubble in housing markets.

    “Hardly a day goes by without another anecdote-laden article in the press claiming that the U.S. is experiencing a housing bubble that will soon burst, with disastrous consequences for the economy,” Peach told the committee.

    “Housing-market activity has been quite robust for some time now, with starts and sales of single-family homes reaching all-time highs in recent months and home prices rising rapidly, particularly along the East and West coasts of the country,” he said. “But such activity could be the result of solid fundamentals.”

  116. Jim says:

    WOW did anyone notice my predictions for 2011, here is the reprint, Essex is crying like a little entitled baby WAH WAH

    I believe Essex will be crying like a baby after his wife’s pension is halved, and her benefits l reflect the real world , not the entitlement world they are used to. The People will finally realize our education system ranks 25th in the top 30 of all industralized nations

    Governor Christie will be adored by the working people of NJ, while the NJEA and PBA will put a price on his head.

    Interest rates will finally increase slightly, which will further the decline in real estate.Unemployment will be higher than it is now and dollar will finally increase in value.

    A VAT tax will be seriously discussed in Washington, but not yet approved, but will be before 2015.

    What a shame, reality is tough to handle, here is a hanky ESSEX

  117. Simply Ravishing HEHEHE says:

    Essentially you have the Illinois response (raise taxes first) to the budget crisis and the NJ response (cut spending first). Interesting to see which one floods the street first with po’d voters.

  118. Al Mossberg says:

    119.

    I dont think its that simple. If our economy is 70% consumer based a VAT tax will destroy the economy.

    We are looking at a new currency here. Happens every 40 years. Not a big deal. Problem is the fat Americans are going to actually have to work instead of sitting on the dole.

  119. Essex says:

    119. I’m pretty sure I told you last time that I’m part of a two income family. Our gross has been over $250k range for the past 10 years. State pensions really aren’t going to make too much in the way of a difference to our retirement. My earlier comments are more in line with the moronic discourse which has become the norm here. Your own stupidity not withstanding.

  120. grim says:

    #122 – During the greatest recessions of our generation? Hey brother, can you spare a dime?

  121. relo says:

    And none of her Columbia classmates claim to have known her.

  122. Essex says:

    124. Yep, but here in ol’ NJ that is just a’living wage’. Besides, all my extra cash goes to a couple of hobbies. Just picked up a sweet AC-15 Vox.

  123. box (70)-

    Bodog now has the line at NE -9. NE on the win line is -450.

    Tough one, any way you slice it. Jets have a puncher’s chance, and it would be just like them to get past NE then shit a brick in the AFC championship game.

  124. gator (74)-

    You should go back and tell them that you are tweaked out on meth and subsist on a diet consisting of nothing but grape soda, Pop Tarts and bacon rinds.

  125. moose (78)-

    Forgot to say fcuk you today.

  126. whine (89)-

    The way I see it, the only way to avoid this syndrome is to move to Chile.

  127. pain (92)-

    I’d be a lot more tolerant and forgiving were I allowed to pack a Tec-9 with an extended magazine at all times.

  128. gary says:

    What the world really needs is more leather and x@nax.

    Geez, do I miss the fun here during the day. I really need to find out how I could bust open that firewall at work. Anyone have an ADMIN ID and password? :)

  129. Neanderthal Economist says:

    5-13. I liken Debt supernova’s posts to a mid air explosion, and essex’s posts to a slow motion train wreck. This is more dysfunctional than watching credit markets freeze and s&p plunge to 666 in 2008.

  130. veets (136)-

    Fall, 2008 was for lightweights. The next big bang will cost us population in the millions.

  131. Neanderthal Economist says:

    48. Sorry. Wrong. Recovery is here. Slow and weak but here. I think that post belongs back in 2008.

  132. Neanderthal Economist says:

    Clotpol. Let’s drill down on the timing of the ‘next big bang.’ Are you talking 5 years or 35? And let’s remember that a lot can change in any given 6 months. All I see is more of the same but less exciting than that. ‘Big Bangs’ only exist in jj stories.

  133. Juice Box says:

    Pizza war in Midtown.

    99 cents slice vs Ray’s Pizza 75 cents slice.

    Whatever happened to the good old days when the Mafia would just firebomb the competition?

    http://www.dnainfo.com/20110114/manhattan/midtown-pizza-war-heats-up-with-75cent-slices#ixzz1B2kvbTtP

  134. Neanderthal Economist says:

    72 jj. 72,000 at least. More if they went to college with you.

  135. Neanderthal Economist says:

    Reference to 72 was supposed to be 84.

  136. Neanderthal Economist says:

    Zillow is now doing agent reviews. Vote grim, debt and 30 yr into top 10 ten in state.. no link.

  137. Neanderthal Economist says:

    140 juice. Is that deflation or currency manipulation?

  138. Neanderthal Economist says:

    Look folks. There will be no defining event. No body bags. No closure. Consumers are still in the early innings of deleveraging, low borrowing, slow spending growth. Stabilized high unemployment and higher savings will persist for years. Foreclosuregate will be more anti climatic than oj ordeal.

  139. Al Mossberg says:

    “Fall, 2008 was for lightweights. The next big bang will cost us population in the millions.”

    Thats what Im thinking. Hopefully it wont be all Americans.

  140. New in FL says:

    WTF is it with Zillow. Our favorite agents aren’t listed.

  141. Juice Box says:

    #144 Re: deflation? ha take a look at what the CTFC is now attempting to do for commodity future speculation.Think they are now all of a sudden worried about cost push inflation?

    what we are seeing in the pizza market is the Digiorno effect. Cheap frozen pizza is cutting into the rackets held by the national chains, hense the need for Dominos to up their quality and other like the 99 cent chains to perform block busting in high rent districts.

  142. Outofstater says:

    Grosse Pointe Farms house – Asking price: $529,900. Zillow estimate: $229,000

    http://www.zillow.com/homedetails/30-Lee-Gate-Ln-Grosse-Pointe-Farms-MI-48236/88170301_zpid/

  143. chicagofinance says:

    OMG help me….
    2331 E. Cumberland Street, in the Port Richmond neighborhood of Philadelphia.
    http://www.memphistaproom.com/images/memphistaproomsupper.pdf

  144. chicagofinance says:

    for JJ
    SUICIDE RINGS . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .$5
    Vidalia onions, habenero cream, suicide salt:

  145. Libtard says:

    Awesome menu. Next GTG in Philly?

  146. Shore Guy says:

    That place in Grosse Point needs an awful lot of work. The kitchen is dreadful for anyone who actually cooks.

  147. Shore Guy says:

    Pointe

  148. willwork4beer says:

    #152 ChiFi

    Great beer list.

    I was scratching my head over the inclusion of Miller and Amstel Light. Then I remembered the last time I was in a bar in Port Richmond.

  149. Shore Guy says:

    I’m just around the corner til the light of day

  150. Orion says:

    It was BFF:

    On Friday, January 14, 2011, Oglethorpe Bank, Brunswick, GA was closed by the Georgia Department of Banking and Finance, and the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) was named Receiver. No advance notice is given to the public when a financial institution is closed.

  151. Outofstater says:

    Yay! Another bank failure in Georgia! The rules here were so lax that all it took was a trailer and a pile of cash and you were in business. I think they may have required a double-wide, but I’m not sure.

  152. Sore feet says:

    If your going to Philly for a GTG, consider Monk’s for all you beer lovers.

  153. Drochewer says:

    [url=http://www.w-polsce-mamy-mocneseo.pl]wpolscemamymocneseo[/url]

  154. Confused In NJ says:

    Happy Debt Year!

    WASHINGTON – The United States just passed a dubious milestone: Government debt surged to an all-time high, more than $14 trillion.

    That means Congress soon will have to lift the legal debt limit to give the nearly maxed-out government an even higher credit limit or dramatically cut spending to stay within the current cap. Either way, a fight is ahead on Capitol Hill, inflamed by the passions of tea party activists and deficit hawks.

    Today’s debt level represents a $45,300 tab for each and everyone in the country.

    Already, both sides are blaming each other for an approaching economic train wreck as Washington wrestles over how to keep the government in business and avoid default on global financial obligations.

    Bills increasing the debt limit are among the most unpopular to come before Congress, serving as pawns for decades in high-stakes bargaining games. Every time until now, the ending has been the same: We go to the brink before raising the ceiling.

    All bets may be off, however, in this charged political environment, despite some signs the partisan rhetoric is softening after the Arizona shootings.

    Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner says failure to increase borrowing authority would be “a catastrophe,” perhaps rivaling the financial meltdown of 2008-2009.

    Congressional Republicans, flexing muscle after November’s victories, say the election results show that people are weary of big government and deficit spending, and that it’s time to draw the line against more borrowing.

    Defeating a new debt limit increase has become a priority for the tea party movement and other small-government conservatives.

    So far, the new GOP majority has proved accommodating. Republicans are moving to make good on their promise to cut $100 billion from domestic spending this year. They adopted a rules change by House Speaker John Boehner that should make it easier to block a debt-limit increase.

    The national debt is the accumulation of years of deficit spending going back to the days of George Washington. The debt usually advances in times of war and retreats in peace.

    Remarkably, nearly half of today’s national debt was run up in just the past six years. It soared from $7.6 trillion in January 2005 as President George W. Bush began his second term to $10.6 trillion the day Obama was inaugurated and to $14.02 trillion now. The period has seen two major wars and the deepest economic downturn since the 1930s.

    With a $1.7 trillion deficit in budget year 2010 alone, and the government on track to spend $1.3 trillion more this year than it takes in, annual budget deficits are adding roughly $4 billion a day to the national debt. Put another way, the government is borrowing 41 cents for every dollar it spends.

    In a letter to Congress, Geithner said the current statutory debt ceiling of $14.3 trillion, set just last year, may be reached by the end of March — and hit no later than May 16. He warned that holding it hostage to skirmishes over spending could lead the country to default on its obligations, “an event that has no precedent in American history.”

    Debt-level brinkmanship doesn’t wear a party label.

    Here’s what then-Sen. Barack Obama said on the Senate floor in 2006: “The fact that we are here today to debate raising America’s debt limit is a sign of leadership failure. It is a sign that the U.S. government can’t pay its own bills. It is a sign that we now depend on ongoing financial assistance from foreign countries to finance the government’s reckless fiscal policies.”

    It was a blast by the freshman lawmaker against a Bush request to raise the debt limit to $8.96 trillion.

    Bush won on a 52-48 party-line vote. Not a single Senate Democrat voted to raise the limit, opposition that’s now complicating White House efforts to rally bipartisan support for a higher ceiling.

    Democrats have use doomsday rhetoric about a looming government shutdown and comparing the U.S. plight to financial crises in Greece and Portugal. It’s all a bit of a stretch.

    “We can’t do as the Gingrich crowd did a few years ago, close the government,” said Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid, D-Nev., referring to government shutdowns in 1995 when Georgia Republican Newt Gingrich was House speaker.

    But those shutdowns had nothing to do with the debt limit. They were caused by failure of Congress to appropriate funds to keep federal agencies running.

    And there are many temporary ways around the debt limit.

    Hitting it does not automatically mean a default on existing debt. It only stops the government from new borrowing, forcing it to rely on other ways to finance its activities.

    In a 1995 debt-limit crisis, Treasury Secretary Robert Rubin borrowed $60 billion from federal pension funds to keep the government going. It wasn’t popular, but it helped get the job done. A decade earlier, James Baker, President Ronald Reagan’s treasury secretary, delayed payments to the Civil Service and Social Security trust funds and used other bookkeeping tricks to keep money in the federal till.

    Baker and Rubin “found money in pockets no one knew existed before,” said former congressional budget analyst Stanley Collender.

    Collender, author of “Guide to the Federal Budget,” cites a slew of other things the government can do to delay a crisis. They include leasing out government-owned properties, “the federal equivalent of renting out a room in your home,” or slowing down payments to government contractors.

    Now partner-director of Qorvis Communications, a Washington consulting firm, Collender said such stopgap measures buy the White House time to resist GOP pressure for concessions.

    “My guess is they can go months after the debt ceiling is not raised and still be able to come up with the cash they need. But at some point, it will catch up,” and raising the debt limit will become an imperative, he suggested.

    Republican leaders seem to acknowledge as much, but first want to force big concessions. “Do I want to see this nation default? No. But I want to make sure we get substantial spending cuts and controls in exchange for raising the debt ceiling,” said the chairman of the House Budget Committee, Rep. Paul Ryan, R-Wis.

    Clearly, the tea party types in Congress will be given an up-and-down vote on raising the debt limit before any final deal is struck, even if the measure ultimately passes.

    “At some point you run out of accounting gimmicks and resources. Eventually the government is going to have to start shutting down certain operations,” said Mark Zandi, chief economist for Moody’s Analytics.

    “If we get into a heated, protracted debate over the debt ceiling, global investors are going to grow nervous, and start driving up interest rates. It will all become negatively self-re-enforcing,” said Zandi. “No good will come of it.”

    The overall national debt rose above $14 trillion for the first time the last week in December. The part subject to the debt limit stood at $13.95 trillion on Friday and was expected to break above $14 trillion within days.

  155. confused (162)-

    Bullshit, all of it. In the end, Bergabe and Eraserhead will play brinksmanship and float the “end of the world” line, and the national credit card will be re-loaded.

    The only thing that stops this madness is total world war, or total revolution.

  156. The gubmint will grind us to powder until such time as we decide to fight back.

  157. Shore Guy says:

    Be careful what you wish for, as you may get it:

    http://mobile.nytimes.com/2011/01/15/nyregion/15homeless.xml

  158. NJCoast says:

    For anybody with Light of Day concert tickets at the Paramount Theatre in Asbury Park, the surprise guest will be coming tonight. He’s just arriving for sound check. I’m more looking forward to Kinderhook Creek at the Stone Pony.

  159. Today’s installation of “How Truly Fuct We Are”:

    “The WSJ has an adorable article titled “The Fed’s Laugh Track” in which it has done a word search for “laughter” and come up with some amusing results. Of course it would be far funnier if the WSJ had an article disclosing all the conversation transcripts between Jon Hilsenrath and the various Fed’s presidents and executives. We won’t hold our breath on that on. We would, however, like to present one of tha laugh tracks that the WSJ conveniently decided to drop. Not surprisingly, the topic of that particular transcript disclosure is, well, gold.

    To wit, from the September 22, 2005 meeting transcript:

    CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN. Several years ago I recall that we ran a correlation with the gold price against levels of inflation. We actually came out with some forecasting capability. Has that been rerun in recent years?

    MS. [Karen] JOHNSON [(PhD. MIT, 1973)]. Not by us.

    MR. STOCKTON: Not by me. I think we did that at your request. [Laughter] And we were not so convinced by the evidence that we’ve maintained that particular series for forecasting.

    MR. REINHART. I think you actually alternated your requests—asking each one of us in turn—and we haven’t updated that in a long time.

    CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN. The problem is that it kept coming out, for reasons I can’t understand, with some information capability. The reason I raise it, as you know, is that we have a big, fat spike here, and I don’t know what to make of it.

    MS. JOHNSON. Yes, a 17-year high. I volunteer to run the gold price. [Laughter]

    CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN. Provided that you don’t tell anybody you’re doing it!

    MS. JOHNSON. Right.

    This is indeed funny, because if the current Fed Chairman had only deferred to his predecessor, currently advising John Paulson to buy up every ounce of gold available, and to this transcript, he would figure out that the 30% surge in the price of gold in 2010 predicted precisely why there was a surging food price-based revolution in Tunisia yesterday and why the CPI confirmed the biggest jump in inflation in 18 months, and why food prices and corporate margins are about to pr0lapse. He also would not be at all confused when he told Congress back in June that he doesn’t “fully understand movements in the gold price.”

    That said, we are confident the Federal Reserve will shortly come out with a statement that the first POMO/money-printing, pardon, monetary base-printing, driven revolution in Africa would have been much worse in the absence of QE2, and that Tunisia was really revolting against the possibility of deflation many years down the line.

    As for Ms. Karen Johnson’s kind suggestion to “run the gold price” we can assure her that she will not have to. After all CFTC just made sure that JPM will be able to continue to do that indefinitely [Laughter].”

    http://www.zerohedge.com/article/feds-stunning-finding-gold-inflation-predictor-and-subsequent-cover-laughter

  160. Guess Tunisia is off my list of bug-out destinations.

  161. cobbler says:

    [tunisia]
    Arguably, these were not food riots:
    The protests sprung into being abruptly after the self-immolation last month of a college-educated street vendor in the remote town of Sidi Bouzid who was frustrated by the lack of good job prospects. It grew from grass roots through social networks like Facebook and Twitter, fanned by aggressive coverage from Al Jazeera. And it accelerated as demonstrators circulated homemade digital videos of each protest or confrontation, beginning with the vendor’s self-immolation, to inspire new ones around the country.
    I am amazed that millions of unemployed college grads in this country sit on their parents couches…

  162. Neanderthal Economist says:

    Was out shopping for home stuff today. The stores are packed. People are loading their carts with absolute grabage. They cant be stopped.
    Its like 2006 out there.
    Reminds me of 2004 when we really didnt know if economy was recovering or not yet.

  163. cobbler says:

    Now, decide if having the industrial policy in the U.S. would hurt:

    http://www.nytimes.com/2011/01/15/business/energy-environment/15solar.html?src=me&ref=business

  164. Juice Box says:

    re # 169 – interesting theme in the MSM now blame it on the knowledge released by Social Networking. Just like Greece last year with large amount of unemployed youth rioting for months, and what is even more interesting is the fact that this is an Arab Muslim country. 55% of the population under the age of 25 is out of work. They however lack the oil that makes their brethren to the east rich.

    Perhaps the youth will resurrect the ways of their ancestors? Large swaths of the European Mediterranean coast was abandoned until the mid 19th century out of fear of the Barbary Pirates who enslaved millions and challenged the Navies of Europe for supremacy for hundreds of years.

  165. nj escapee says:

    Veto, 170, I think you’re right. My longshoreman buddy from NYC and some guy we don’t know from South Jersey were buying a bunch f us multiple rounds of $10 mojitos. I stopped at 3 because I had a 4 mile bike ride home.

  166. Wow. Shoulda known this guy McCrudden who threatened to whack 47 CFTC/SEC/FDIC officials was a footballer. From his personal CV:

    “Mr. McCrudden is a former soccer player at the University of Rhode Island, and then played professionally for the Tampa Bay Rowdies and Minnesota Strikers of the NASL.”

  167. OTOH, I can’t believe more people haven’t threatened to whack Gary Gensler.

  168. cobbler says:

    juice box [172]
    interesting theme in the MSM now blame it on the knowledge released by Social Networking. No kidding – why do you think the Chinese govt spends so much effort on Internet censorship, not letting Facebook in, etc.?

  169. I’m ready to see armadas of Muslim pirates in the Mediterranean.

    Good times.

  170. cobbler says:

    Interesting roundtable discussion in this week’s Barron’s. Paraphrasing their conclusions: we are definitely doomed, but stock returns in 2011 will be good…

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  172. chicagofinance says:

    I’m surprised that none of you have jumped on this one….
    http://www.businessweek.com/magazine/content/11_04/b4212052185280.htm

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  177. Smathers says:

    Gosh, leave for a while and look. These boards have become what I fully expected they’d be… a total joke. Raving madness and spam. Remember when they were mentioned in the papers? Too bad the loonies took over.

    My belated prediction for 2011? The boards don’t make it through the year.

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