Both economists and meteorologists predicting long winter

From HousingWire:

Clear Capital: Home prices begin their descent

October home prices fell 2.8% from a year earlier, the 13th straight month of such declines, according to Clear Capital.

Home prices increased 0.6% from the previous three months, which flattened out from the 3.5% in gain the month before.

Alex Villacorta, director of research and analytics at Clear Capital, said homebuyer demand is expected to decay even more in the coming months as the flow of distressed inventory continues.

“October home price gains have leveled out, confirming what our data has pointed to over the last several months,” Villacorta said. “Short term gains have been nearly eliminated while longer term performance measures point to mostly negative territory through the turn of the year.”

Three of the four U.S. regions posted home price gains, but they were well off their summer growth. Prices increased the most over the past three months in the Midwest at 2.6% and fell 1% out West.

“We can expect another long winter as the housing market will truly be put to the test against these downward forces,” Villacorta said.

This entry was posted in Economics, Housing Bubble, Housing Recovery, National Real Estate. Bookmark the permalink.

94 Responses to Both economists and meteorologists predicting long winter

  1. grim says:

    From the Star Ledger:

    Report: N.J. residents worse off money-wise in 2010 than 2000

    Most New Jersey residents are in worse financial shape today than they were at the turn of the century, according to a report by New Jersey Policy Perspective.

    Released today, the report by the liberal-leaning group shows there were fewer jobs and nearly three times more people unemployed in 2010 than in 2000. Other economic indicators, such as wages, household income and poverty rates, were at worse levels in 2010 than in 2000, the report shows.

    The declines show the toll the Great Recession took on the state’s economy, particularly on the middle and working class, the report argues.

    “Working people in New Jersey already know how bad the economy is for their families. They experience it looking for jobs that no longer exist,” said Deborah Howlett, president of New Jersey Policy Perspective. “This report uses important data to explain just how deep the mark is that has been left on New Jersey by the lack of jobs and the stagnant economy.”

  2. funnelcloud says:

    Its going to be a long winter.

  3. funnelcloud says:

    So what do they do go day by day, On Nov 3 2010 we sold 2 houses on Nov 3 2011 we sold 6 houses thats a 200% increase over last year. We must be out of the recession

  4. grim says:

    From GlobeSt:

    Emerging Trends: Manhattan Sees Over-the-Top Resurgence

    While Manhattan remains vastly different from the rest of the universe, the city is fighting headwinds in the backbone of its economy, the financial services sector. This, and more information, will be shared by the Urban Land Institute and PricewaterhouseCoopers in its 2012 “Emerging Trends in Real Estate” report, which will be presented to the Bar Association of New York City on Thursday morning.

    The report shows that Manhattan shows a “remarkable resilience” buttressed by one of the world’s best-educated and high-paid workforce, but a transaction pause may be in order in lieu of the economic turmoil on Wall Street. “The only way to justify office prices assumes rents skyrocketing to unlikely heights, and broker happy talk doesn’t hide most employers’ reluctance to add bodies,” ULI says.

    At the same time, Manhattan remains the #4 market in the nation, leading in sectors such as hospitality, tourism and multifamily. The city boasts the highest in the country apartment occupancies, which could vault rental rates to record levels, according to ULI. In turn, outer-ring suburban markets in Northern New Jersey, Westchester, Fairfield and Long Island have gained from their proximity to New York.

  5. Mike says:

    Good Morning New Jersey

  6. Mike says:

    One thing both the meteorologists and the economists have in common is they still get to keep their jobs when the predictions they make are all wrong

  7. funnelcloud says:

    Mike #6
    You forgot to add CEO’s to that list, Oh, I guess I’m wrong there, There more like politicians, they can get fired but they always leave with a boatload of cash and benefits

  8. grim says:

    From CNBC:

    Zillow Forecasts 2011 Sales That Exceed Analysts’ Estimates

    Zillow Inc., the real estate website that sold shares to the public earlier this year, forecast revenue for the year that topped analysts’ estimates as it sold more subscriptions to agents who aim to sell properties.

    Sales for 2011 will more than double to $63 million to $64 million, from $30.5 million last year, Seattle-based Zillow said today in a statement. Analysts had predicted $61.7 million, according to a Bloomberg survey. The stock jumped as much as 11 percent after the report.

    Marketplace revenue, which includes subscriptions to real estate agents and advertising sold to mortgage lenders, more than tripled to $11.8 million. Sales of display ads rose 57 percent to $7.2 million. Zillow went public in July, joining a crop of Internet companies, including LinkedIn Corp., Pandora Media Inc. and HomeAway Inc., that have debuted this year.

  9. The stench of death intensifies.

  10. grim says:

    From CBS:

    Atlantic City Wants $38.5M Loan To Cover Property Tax Appeals

    Atlantic City wants to borrow $38.5 million to repay those who successfully challenged their property taxes.

    About 90 percent are casinos.

    The Press of Atlantic City reports the city has handled tax appeal losses in the past by giving out tax credits instead of cash refunds. However, some businesses and casinos have accumulated so many credits that they are not paying taxes.

  11. Shore Guy says:

    Ignore the fire alarm bells ringing, it is just a test. I think. Oh, nevermind, nothing to worry about:

    A little before 2 a.m. on Monday, Jon S. Corzine was in MF Global’s offices in Midtown Manhattan, scrambling to cut a deal to save his firm. Haggard from too little sleep, at times pacing the hallways, he at least had a handshake agreement with one suitor for the firm.

    Then the chief executive was interrupted to handle a brief conversation that would stop the deal talks cold: hundreds of millions of dollars in customer funds, he was told, could not be located.

    Three hours later, the board of MF Global, with no bidders or options left, voted to file for bankruptcy, the largest failure on Wall Street since Lehman Brothers in 2008.

    While the commodities and derivatives brokerage firm fell apart with ferocious speed, the collapse came after regulators raised warning flags for more than four months. They told MF Global it needed to raise more capital, and they asked about risky transactions involving European debt.

    Yet Mr. Corzine resisted, lobbying to persuade regulators that the firm did not need to raise capital, according to people briefed on the discussions. MF Global did improve its capital position, but it was not enough to save the firm.

    The details that have emerged about MF Global’s final 72 hours — drawn from dozens of interviews with people who participated in the weekend discussions or were directly briefed by people who did — illustrate that three years after the financial crisis, Wall Street executives are still fighting regulators’ demands.

    It also shows that even when the watchdogs sound the alarm, it is not necessarily enough to save a firm. Now, multiple regulators and the Federal Bureau of Investigation are examining the firm’s collapse, trying to determine what went wrong and where the missing money, now suspected to be roughly $630 million, went.


  12. Shore Guy says:

    Another alternative to home ownership:

    Hotel guest checks out after 10-plus years


    For less than the price of many apartment rentals in the Washington metro area (roughly $1,500-$1,700 a month) Bricker’s room was supplied with wifi, which fueled her hours of daily online research and reading a day, and the added benefit of daily room cleaning, and round-the-clock security. Though she says she still makes her bed each day, though not nearly as well.


  13. Shore Guy says:

    Speaking of chutzpa!

    Politician Admits to Sex With Minor But Still Wants Your Vote

    “It’s amazing how stupid some politicians think voters are. But Linda Wall might just tip the scales for condescending candidate. An anti-gay activist running on a conservative platform for a spot in the Virginia House of Delegates, Wall has openly admitted that she once had sex with a female minor. And she still expects people to, um, vote for her?”


  14. Mike says:

    Funnel No. 7 That’s capitalism so that makes it OK. On another note does anybody know or own the stock of a company that manufactures tear gas?

  15. The only way justice can be served is for Corslime and Orin Kramer to share a cell for eternity.

    Or, both of them should be forced to star in a sequel to Dumb and Dumber.

  16. It’s all fun and games until someone puts out an eye.

  17. shore (11)-

    Carla and her kids? I hear she is in the alpaca farming business. Those critters are high-maintenance.

    “Now, multiple regulators and the Federal Bureau of Investigation are examining the firm’s collapse, trying to determine what went wrong and where the missing money, now suspected to be roughly $630 million, went.”

  18. Painhrtz - I ain't dead yet says:

    Shore 13 – here fixed headline “Anitgay Activist Mad about s*xuality admits s*x with underage girl, would like to do it again while securing your vote”

    Why is it the so called conservatives are always raging hypocrites, wait never mind most of them are uber X-stians that explains it.

  19. funnelcloud says:

    Mike #14
    Jon Cor-slime and friends ( misplace ha ha ) 600mil+ of investors money and that’s capitalism, A young couple misplaces a sandwich wrapper at a Safeway and they take their kid away and throw them in jail overnight. That’s Justice

  20. gary says:

    October home prices fell 2.8% from a year earlier, the 13th straight month of such declines, according to Clear Capital.

    Tick… tick… tick… tick…

  21. gary says:

    We need a statement by d0uche Otteau stating that we hit bottom.

  22. Shore Guy says:

    If Corzine’s firm had made a mint, he would have been crowing about how his leadership caused the profits and, thus, he is entitled to 60% of the profits for himself. As for the loss of the firm’s money and the client funds, who wants to bet that he will be looking for some junior trader on which to pin this whole thing. If crimes happened on his watch, he should do time, and pay criminal and civil penalties from his own wealth.

  23. Shore Guy says:

    Speaking of holier-than-thou types:

    Judge faces probe over video of him beating daughter

    Police in Texas have launched an investigation after a video surfaced online in which a local family law judge berates and beats his 16-year-old daughter with a belt.

    The video runs nearly eight minutes and has been viewed on YouTube more than 600,000 times since it was uploaded last week.

    It shows Aransas County Court-at-Law Judge William Adams whipping a girl’s legs. He grows angrier after the girl refuses to turn over on a bed.

    “Lay down or I’ll spank you in your (expletive) face,” Adams yells, as the girl screams for him to stop

  24. Shore Guy says:

    oh, and this from the article:

    The judge confirmed during an interview Wednesday with Corpus Christi television station KZTV that he did appear in the video. snip
    William Adams is a family law judge who deals with child abuse cases, according to Sheriff Bill Mills.

  25. Shore Guy says:


    We hit bottom a long time ago. Now, we are tunnling.

  26. Shore Guy says:

    A different context but not all that different from athletes or certain suburban neighborhoods:

    When Keeping It Real Goes All Wrong: 10 Reasons Rap Artists Die Broke!

    Comedian Dave Chappelle was famous for his wicked timing, uncanny humor and delivery of numerous jokes and skits during his three year run with a hot tv show.

    One infamous skit was the “When Keeping It Real Goes All Wrong!” segment. In these classics portrayals, some ignorant person was always seen as “Keepin’ It Real” and “Aint nobody gonna chump me,” boasting to only loose it all in the end.

    Well, the rap industry is no different.

    From (as they would boast) blunts and broads, to ménage a’ trois, the average rapper or wanna-be rapper, puts his being cool or keepin’ it real before being paid.

    They usually fail to realize that the Bentleys, blunts and broads, and bling bling, cost green-green, i.e., dollars and Benjamins.

    I fight with clients all the time in their wanting to have bling-bling rims and teeth rather than keeping the bling-bling in the bank and a retirement fund.


    Not long ago, in a NY Times interview, Jay-Z truthfully shared that there are only 10 guys in the rap game making real money.

    If you listen carefully, and examine the rap game, most are broke and fronting.

    Many will ask you if they can borrow your house or phat ride for an appearance on MTV’s Cribs. Or for use in a music video.


  27. Shore Guy says:

    A New York City cafe cut its staff by nearly 25 percent last week because of lost business due to the ongoing Occupy Wall Street protests, the cafe’s owner told

    Marc Epstein, owner of the Milk Street Cafe at 40 Wall Street in lower Manhattan, said he had to cut 21 of the 97 members of his staff on Thursday and Friday after seeing sales plummet by 30 percent in the six weeks since the protests began. He’s also been forced to slash the restaurant operating hours, moving up his closing time from 9 p.m. to 3:30 p.m. Mondays

  28. Shore Guy says:

    Before heading back into the salt mine, this bit of sage advice from the UK:


    Beyond the boundaries of marriage, we live in a world where every minute detail of life is openly aired on Facebook and Twitter. There’s the cult of the blog, the confessional celebrity interviews, and the reality shows which provide jaw-dropping insights into the lives of its so-called ‘stars’.
    So it seems rather prissy to declare that too much information is not desirable. But while I wouldn’t advocate stiff formality and secrecy as the way forward, there’s a lot to be said for mimicking the past.
    Holding back on some of life’s less salubrious details didn’t damage the marriages of previous generations, did it? Women chose to discuss their concerns — hot flushes, varicose veins, pelvic floor issues — with one another, while men never talked about much anyway, so that was all right.
    My grand old neighbour Margaret, aged 88, believes that retaining an air of mystery is essential to a relationship.
    ‘Darling, don’t ever let him see you in a face mask, rollers or housecoat,’ she solemnly declared. ‘And keep less glamorous ailments to yourself — he most certainly won’t care to know about your haemorrhoids, for instance.’
    In essence, other friends concur with this view. My pal Clare, who’s been happily married for 26 years, believes mystery is vital in a long-term relationship.
    ‘When it comes to sharing, I always say to myself: “What would Barbara Cartland do?”’
    I know what she means: would one of Dame Barbara’s heroine’s pluck at a hair on her chin as she and her beau snuggle up to watch Strictly? No.
    I was recently discussing the ‘share or not to share’ dilemma with a group of women, and many were adamant that less is more. One, an elegant 60-something, is convinced that discretion is essential to keeping the magic in a marriage.


  29. Shore Guy says:

    Okay, one really last thing. I wonder if writing like this is what keeps the UK newspapers profitable:

    “Mr Balls has a rare ability to drive opponents nuts.

    Read more:

  30. Anon E. Moose says:

    RE: Grim [10];

    The Press of Atlantic City reports the city has handled tax appeal losses in the past by giving out tax credits instead of cash refunds. However, some businesses and casinos have accumulated so many credits that they are not paying taxes.

    They skinned the sheep instead of shearing it.

  31. make money says:

    Europe is in flames and sheeple desperately needs a distraction. I have an idea. Lets go to war against Iran because they are evil and want to develop a nuclear weapon.


    How do you trade the upcoming Iran conflict this weekend?

  32. xmonger says:

    #32, I don’t think a small scale conflict will fit the bill anymore.

  33. Libtard in the City says:

    Hey Grim. Where’s Jamil? Did you ban him or just tell him not to discuss politics any more? Both of which would have the same result of course.

    Still without power, but tomorrow morning at 10am is when the Metlife adjuster comes tomorrow at 10am.

  34. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    Presently in a room full of tax professionals in Brooklyn. Just learned that I am the final speaker. Wish someone told me I’d be speaking.

  35. JC says:

    Shore #23: I’ve seen the video. The worst part is when the kid’s mother tells her to “take it like an adult woman”. I wonder what this guy does to his wife.

    Also Shore #28: I guess the fact that this restaurant got uniformly crappy reviews on Yelp that pre-date the start of the protest has absolutely nothing to do with why he failed. *snerk*

  36. B says:

    #38 JC Not to mention it is far enough away from Zucotti Park (4 to 5 blocks), so that on a day to day basis, it would not have an impact, except for the days when they march down to the exchange. Meanwhile there is another restaurant directly across from the park, and I have not heard anything regarding their business being affected; also another one on the other side of the street. You have thousands of construction workers down there every day, (in addition to all the other people work work there), and I would think their lunch business is doing well.

  37. Anon E. Moose says:

    JC [38];

    Also Shore #28: I guess the fact that this restaurant got uniformly crappy reviews on Yelp that pre-date the start of the protest has absolutely nothing to do with why he failed. *snerk*

    Should we then just go trolling the hospital wards executing sick people because ‘Hey, they were dying anyway…”

  38. 3B says:

    #39 Equals 3b, not B

  39. 3B says:

    #32 Europe may be in flames, but the European tourists are all over the place down here.

  40. 3B says:

    #32 The Europeans do not seem too worried, if so many are still coming here to visit.

  41. A.West says:

    Q3 BMW sales in Germany and US were up ~10% yoy, up 20% yoy in China.
    Top 10% are still doing ok in much of the world, and are still interested in pointing it out to other people.
    Which helps explain why home prices in the top tier towns still haven’t fallen. I know a family that had been looking for a home in Basking Ridge for the last couple years, but gave up and rented a condo there, as home prices didn’t really fall much.

  42. Painhrtz - I ain't dead yet says:

    3B it is when they are coming as refugees that we should worry

  43. All Hype says:

    Referendum is dead in Greece. BTFD. Who knew the suppression of democracy was so bullish???

  44. Juice Box says:

    Hype – re: Greece – they still can’t pay their bills but need the 8 Billion infusion next month to make payroll. Merkle said nine to that at the G-20 if the held this referendum. Wake me up with they layoff 100k workers and cut pay 40% as is called for in the coming months.

  45. 30 year realtor says:

    #44 A. West – Prices haven’t fallen in top towns?

    Maybe they haven’t fallen as much as less desirable locations, but they have fallen!

    Yeah, 15% in a rock solid North Jersey train town ain’t 60% in less desirable urban locations, but it sure is something! Ask the guy in Ridgewood about the house he paid a million for in 06 and why he can’t get more than $850,000 now. $150,000 is sure something!

  46. Barbara says:

    150k is something if you were never making the kind of coin that would have you in a million dollar house to begin with. There are plenty of people who can comfortably leave 100k on the table. I bought one of their houses. If 150k is going to put a big dent in y our bottom line, then you probably should have been on a 400k house to begin with.

  47. Barbara says:

    ….IN a 400k house…

  48. seif says:

    it is not a matter of dollars…it is about percentages. 150K price decrease on an 850K house is 17.5%….hard to say that is nothing.

  49. Juice Box says:

    re 150k loss, you are forgetting inflation. 850k in 2006 is 950k in 2011.

  50. Barbara says:

    Seif, there are two kinds of money, your monthly take home and your assets. If, like most you only measured wealth based on your take home, that 17 percent is going to hurt. I would argue that for people with real assets, the only kind of people who should be buying into that price range, a 17 percent drop on ONE asset isn’t going to kill you. Again, during the bubble we had people buying into a price point that they had no business being in, that’s when 17 percent becomes the end of the world.

  51. Libtard in the City says:

    They were stretching Barb. Isn’t that what they said we were supposed to do?

  52. Barbara says:

    I HELOCed it all and put it on ;P.

  53. 3B says:

    #44 I have a friend in Basking Ridge who would say othereise.

  54. seif says:

    sorry Babs, but no, what you are suggesting has nothing to do with what 30yr and I commented on. numbers/math does not take into account anything you are talking about. math doesn’t take emotions into account.

    17% loss is a 17% loss is a17% loss.

  55. 3B says:

    #49 And there a plenty of people who cannot leave 100k on the table, and plenty who never expected to. Also lots of posers ( if that word is still in fashion) in Ridgewood too.

  56. Barbara says:

    This is the part of the internets debate when two people are actually agreeing but somebody wants to win.

  57. onthebrink says:

    This is probably old news to everyone here, but someone just turned me onto Gerald Celente and my first reaction was that he was another of those doomsday predictors. When I read more about him, some of the things he said were intriguing. Would anyone on the board care to give their opinion of the man and what he says? Thanks in advance.

  58. Essex says:

    On our fifth day without power. Good Times!

  59. Essex says:

    How’s that energy monopoly thing workin’ for ya NJ???

  60. The Original NJ Expat says:

    #51 seif – 17% loss is a 17% loss is a17% loss.

    Not if you don’t sell, as in Clot’s plan (out feet first).

  61. The Original NJ Expat says:

    #61 otb – Celente strikes me as a bit of a huckster and self-promoter, like Peter Schiff. OTOH, I disagree with very little of what either has to say.

  62. chicagofinance says:

    JJ: I want to see the impact on the TruPS tomorrow if any…

    Bank of America Corp., looking to take advantage of market doubts on the value of its debt, may offer up to 400 million common shares in order to raise funds to repurchase some of its outstanding preferred shares, according to a filing Thursday.

    The bank said in its quarterly filing it is exploring the possibility of taking advantage of the “low market values” on its debt, calling it “economically advantageous at this time to consider retirement” of the debt.

    The exchange would both boost its Tier 1 common capital and reduce the expense of paying out interest and dividends to the holders of the preferred shares or other debt. It does expect the move to lift earnings, though doesn’t expect that to be significant.

    The Charlotte, N.C., bank’s shares fell 1.9% to $6.81 in after-hours trading after rallying 2.8% to $6.91 in the regular session.

    Bank of America has been adamant that it wouldn’t need to sell common shares for their capital positions alone, a statement it has had to defend amid investor doubts about various costs looming over the bank.

    But those doubts also contributed to the market reducing the prices on the bank’s debt, leading to Thursday’s disclosure. The bank has said recently the capital position is still strong.

  63. Shore Guy says:


    But, at least you have good proxmity to Manhattan.

  64. Confused in NJ says:

    63.Essex says:
    November 3, 2011 at 4:55 pm
    On our fifth day without power. Good Times!

    Buy a GE Synphony Power Station run from natural gas or propane.

  65. Essex says:

    71. Definitely. On the list. Will buy one in January .

  66. chicagofinance says:

    The End Is Nigh (IPO Edition):
    Groupon Prices at $20 a Share, Above $16 to $18 Range: Report (Story developing)

  67. chicagofinance says:

    I guess Anchor Baby was Essex

  68. 3b says:

    #65 It is still a loss in the mind of the homeowner, it affects the psyche. ANd they feel poorer.

  69. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    (75) chifi,

    Damn, and I took the bait.

    On an unrelated note, I stopped in on clot today, and got him good.

  70. grim says:

    That little GE unit is a sweet little generator. Problem is that I’d want to set it next to my Central AC unit, but that is completely across the long side of the house from the panel.

  71. grim says:

    BTW – Have not banned anyone since Duck

  72. grim says:

    Or I could just go with something like this..

    Generator stolen from NJ police department

    MORRIS TOWNSHIP — These are desperate times for New Jerseyans who have been without electricity since an October snowstorm hit parts of the state on Saturday.

    Someone stole a generator used by the Morris Township Police Department.

  73. NjescaPee says:

    grim jamil was fine. Maybe over the top sometimes but it is what it is or was.

  74. joyce says:


    inside job?

  75. Shore Guy says:


    If you want the generator on the one side of the house, I would put it there. The most you will be out for having it where you want it is the extra cost of the extra length of the power cable. It might run a couple hundred extra bucks but, putting it in place where you don’t want it will gnaw at you year in and year out like a sabre-toothed Squirrel.

  76. plume (77)-


  77. Shore Guy says:

    For those of you interested in intellectual property rights or the music industry:

  78. Shore Guy says:

    Nothing like flying a blender (what could possibly go wrong with all those blades surrounding the pilot?):

  79. Shore Guy says:

    I found a photo of a car that belongs in a John story:

  80. Shore Guy says:

    Yup, see 85 supra.

  81. Shore Guy says:

    ummm, above

  82. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    (88) shore

    That looks like my old car

    (really. I drove a yellow 1973 Delta 88 in college).

  83. Confused in NJ says:

    85.Shore Guy says:
    November 3, 2011 at 10:40 pm
    Put the generator where you want it

    Looks like 30′ is the max;

    What happens in a typical installation?
    A basic installation includes:
    1.Delivery of the system to dealer. Additional charges for drop ship to consumer.
    2.Installation of the 50, 100 or 200 amp transfer switch is then hardwired into your home or business.
    3.The transfer switch is installed within 2 feet of the main distribution panel and 30 feet of the generator inlet box.

  84. yeah, there seems to be longer season this year.

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