Here it is! The first look at pending home sales (contracts) for Northern NJ.
(Source GSMLS, except Bergen- NJMLS) – Updated with 2011 Data
March Pending Home Sales (Contracts)
——————————-
Bergen County
March 2011 – 708
March 2012 – 825
March 2013 – 881 (Up 6.8% YOY, Up 24.4% Two Year)
Essex County
March 2011 – 325
March 2012 – 387
March 2013 – 479 (Up 23.8% YOY, Up 47.4% Two Year)
Hunterdon County
March 2011 – 97
March 2012 – 121
March 2013 – 146 (Up 20.7% YOY, Up 50.5% Two Year)
Morris County
March 2011 – 370
March 2012 – 486
March 2013 – 527 (Up 8.4% YOY, Up 42.4% Two Year)
Passaic County
March 2011 – 195
March 2012 – 218
March 2013 – 285 (Up 30.7% YOY, Up 46.2% Two Year)
Somerset County
March 2011 – 276
March 2012 – 304
March 2013 – 365 (Up 20.1% YOY, Up 32.2% Two Year)
Sussex County
March 2011 – 115
March 2012 – 102
March 2013 – 166 (Up 62.7% YOY, Up 44.3% Two Year)
Union County
March 2011 – 276
March 2012 – 304
March 2013 – 365 (Up 20.1% YOY, Up 32.2% Two Year)
Warren County
March 2011 – 73
March 2012 – 100
March 2013 – 112 (Up 12.0% YOY, Up 53.4% Two Year)
Frist
Good Morning New Jersey
Down the shore its a tail of 2 markets. Those waiting for the finalized FEMA flood maps and those that are safe. In the safe zone houses are selling like its all bubbly again.
15 year rates sub 3% again.
Buy now or be priced out forever!
From MarketWatch:
Home price expectations remain high, Fannie Mae survey shows
Home price expectations remained at a high in March, with almost half expecting an increase in the next year, according to data released Monday by government controlled mortgage buyer Fannie Mae.
The share of respondents who said home prices will increase in the next 12 months remained at 48% in March, matching February’s record high, according to Fannie FNMA . That share is up from 35% in March 2012. The data go back to June 2010, so after the housing bubble burst. The average 12-month home price change expectation fell slightly to 2.7%.
“Despite an uptick in concern expressed about the direction of the economy, it appears consumers believe that the housing recovery will march on,” said Doug Duncan, Fannie Mae’s chief economist, in a statement.
Another 37% of respondents said they expect prices to stay in the same in the coming year, while 10% expect prices to decline. Fannie’s poll included 1,004 Americans, and was conducted between March 2 and March 25.
From the WSJ:
Home-Price Gains May Be Overstated
Home prices might not have risen as high last year as widely tracked home-price indexes have indicated, according to a research note from economists at Goldman Sachs Group Inc.
After controlling for certain technical factors, home prices on a national basis in 2012 probably rose by 3% to 4%, rather than the 7% to 8% reported by key gauges such as the Standard & Poor’s/Case-Shiller index, the Goldman analysts said.
The analysis doesn’t cast a cloud on the recent turnaround in the housing market. Even with the more modest gain, home prices would have still posted their best year since 2006. Indeed, Goldman analysts say they expect home prices this year to surpass last year’s gains with a 5.2% increase in 2013.
But their exercise could have important implications for assumptions about the extent to which home-price gains translate into increased consumption growth through the housing wealth effect, in which households spend more due to perceived wealth gains.
The Goldman report says home price indexes likely overstated the rate of increase last year for two reasons. First, repeat sales indexes can produce bigger gains (and declines) due to a shift in the “mix” of distressed sales, such as foreclosures. Those homes typically aren’t as well maintained and banks are more likely to sell them at a discount in order to get rid of them.
…
Second, an important technical consideration in the construction of these indexes — how sales are weighted — can also overstate gains or declines. The national Case-Shiller index is “flow weighted,” meaning that it estimates home price gains in one step based on all homes that transact nationwide during a given period. Other indexes are “stock weighted,” meaning they use a weighted average of local price growth, with the volume of the existing housing stock in various markets or submarkets — as opposed to only those homes that transacted — as a weight.
…
The national Case-Shiller index (flow weighted) had a reading of 7.3% for 2012. Using data from 366 metro areas, the same index would have produced a reading of 4.9% using a stock weighted methodology, according to Goldman.
Housing’s Big Challenge: $1 Trillion in Student Debt.
http://www.cnbc.com/id/100624148
Existing Home Inventory is up 8.5% year-to-date on April 8th
http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2013/04/existing-home-inventory-is-up-85-year.html
From Bloomberg:
Kill the 30-Year Mortgage
After a devastating cycle of bubble and bust, the U.S. housing sector is on the road to recovery. New homes are being built at the fastest rate in years and prices are increasing across the country. Foreclosures are down and the number of “underwater” mortgages has declined by almost 12 percent since the peak at the end of 2011. Even Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, the mortgage-finance companies in conservatorship since 2008, are reporting record profits.
What’s wrong with this picture? None of this would be possible without massive government support. Today, the government owns or guarantees about 90 percent of new mortgages, up from about 50 percent in the mid-1990s. It isn’t sustainable, let alone fiscally acceptable, for the U.S. to have such a domineering presence in what should be a private-sector function.
…
The U.S. must figure out a way to better manage these risks if it is to turn housing back over to the private sector. Fortunately, economists have lots of ideas. The common theme is that mortgage principal should be keyed to economic conditions, and monthly payments should rise and fall proportionately. These features ensure that borrowers have a stake in repaying their loans, while also making it easier for them to do so when times get tough.
March Inventory Situation
(Average Listing Price)
Bergen
2012 – 1443 New Listings ($619k) / 5346 Actives ($669k)
2013 – 1295 New Listings ($662k) / 3898 Actives ($738k)
Morris
2012 – 1033 New Listings ($529k) / 4164 Actives ($541k)
2013 – 811 New Listings ($539k) / 3227 Actives ($566k)
Essex
2012 – 727 New Listings ($502k) / 3713 Actives ($412k)
2013 – 684 New Listings ($534k) / 2857 Actives ($444k)
Union
2012 – 705 New Listings ($443k) / 3417 Actives ($352k)
2013 – 592 New Listings ($477k) / 2651 Actives ($385k)
Somerset
2012 – 702 New Listings ($489k) / 2894 Actives ($558k)
2013 – 566 New Listings ($560k) / 2177 Actives ($559k)
Passaic
2012 – 532 New Listings ($332k) / 2825 Actives ($320k)
2013 – 428 New Listings ($327k) / 2163 Actives ($320k)
Sussex
2012 – 365 New Listings ($283k) / 2215 Actives ($294k)
2013 – 389 New Lstings ($282k) / 1984 Actives ($288k)
Hunterdon
2012 – 345 New Listings ($430k) / 1421 Actives ($490k)
2013 – 247 New Listings ($583k) / 1117 Actives ($529k)
Warren
2012 – 232 New Listings ($256k) / 1204 Actives ($261k)
2013 – 190 New Listings ($277k) / 904 Actives ($265k)
Good stuff in #9 – With the exception of Sussex, not only is inventory lower, and coming on at a slower pace, but the inventory that is coming to market is priced, on average, higher than this time last year. Absolute confirmation of the anecotal stories being posted by buyers.
None of this would be possible without massive government support. Today, the government owns or guarantees about 90 percent of new mortgages, up from about 50 percent in the mid-1990s. It isn’t sustainable, let alone fiscally acceptable, for the U.S. to have such a domineering presence in what should be a private-sector function
So, basically if people could ACTUALLY afford these overpriced homes then the government wouldn’t need to be involved, and I wouldn’t (as a hard working tax payer) have to bail out everyone’s f#@k- ups.
grim (8)-
I read this over and over. Eventually, my eyeballs began to boil. First, it is never “fortunate” when economists have lots of ideas; second, it is a de facto admission that the housing market will always be subject to bubble-blowing and severe boom-bust cycles.
“Fortunately, economists have lots of ideas. The common theme is that mortgage principal should be keyed to economic conditions, and monthly payments should rise and fall proportionately. These features ensure that borrowers have a stake in repaying their loans, while also making it easier for them to do so when times get tough.”
no state funeral
“While many initial reactions to Thatcher’s death (especially from American conservatives) have been borderline reverent, those who opposed her policies have already settled on a way to mark the day more critically: by campaigning for the conservative icon’s funeral to be privatized, in accordance with her economic policies. That campaign has centralized around the hashtag #nostatefuneral.
Strictly speaking, Thatcher won’t be getting a state funeral, though the ceremony will be paid for by the state. Thatcher will receive a full, ceremonial funeral with military honors in St. Paul’s Cathedral, Downing Street announced shortly after the former Prime Minister’s death on Monday.
In any case, #nostatefuneral began to trend on Twitter pretty much immediately after Thatcher’s death. A related petition demanding that her funeral be privatized reached 33,814 signatures before being closed Monday morning. The petition explained the rationale behind the campaign, which is essentially a not-so-oblique reference to the former Prime Minister’s privatization of several state-owned industries:
“In keeping with the great lady’s legacy, Margaret Thatcher’s state funeral should be funded and managed by the private sector to offer the best value and choice for end users and other stakeholders. The undersigned believe that the legacy of the former PM deserves nothing less and that offering this unique opportunity is an ideal way to cut government expense and further prove the merits of liberalised economics Baroness Thatcher spearheaded.”
Natasha (11)-
Get back to work, drone. We need your tax dollars to help keep hope alive.
11 – The problem is … from BusinessWeek (this was previously posted):
How Does the U.S. Quit Housing When Fannie, Freddie Rake in Billions?
and
Fannie Mae Profit May Swell Treasury Coffers as Debt Limit Looms
Fannie Mae (FNMA) and Freddie Mac may send the Treasury Department enough money in June to extend by a month government operations under the debt ceiling, giving Republicans and Democrats more time to hammer out solutions to the nation’s finances.
The government-controlled mortgage financiers, under revisions last year to their bailout agreements, turn almost all of their profits over to the Treasury. They each say they have considered reversing about $90 billion of writedowns of tax credits, which would boost the remittances.
…
“It could mean a pretty big chunk of cash for the Treasury at a time they need it,” said Vanden Houten, a senior government policy analyst at Princeton, New Jersey-based Stone & McCarthy. “I don’t have a strong feeling yet if we’re going to have a real nail-bitter of a debt-ceiling showdown, since I think there’s less appetite for it, but you can’t rule it out.”
I thought the UK only held state funerals for inbred royalty and dolt PMs like Tony Blair.
grim (15)-
Phony/Fraudy’s profits will be de minimis vs. the holocaust of the eventual FHA collapse.
In keeping with the Dorothy theme-
Keep spending all your money, max out those credit cards, go on that expensive vacation, buy that Mercedes, take out a mortgage that is way over your head – then close your eyes tight, click your heels and say “the government will bail me out”, “the government will bail me out”, “the government will bail me out.”
Time for me to go to work and earn more money that the government will take a big chunk of-over and out.
another example that the Cult of Personality is well and alive
Never forget that the Fed is buying 40 bn in MBS every month.
Just an eensy little distortion there…
Things should be fine when the Fed backs off the MBS buying.
Move on; nothing to see here.
Keep spending all your money
Savings rate, while somewhat volatile, has improved substantially from the low-to-no savings rates during the bubble.
From the St. Louis Fed: Personal Savings Rate
max out those credit cards
Improved from the bubble days as well, chart below shows an almost 20% reduction in outstanding revolving debt (credit card) since the recession.
Also from the St. Louis Fed: Total Revolving Credit Owned and Securitized, Outstanding
go on that expensive vacation,
Vacation spending has been down big since the recession as well. This one is from last year, we haven’t started to see the 2013 vacation spending reports yet, but I’ll put money on them not rebounding.
From Time: More Americans Planning to Spend Less on Travel This Year
buy that Mercedes,
More like, “keep that Mercedes a few more years”
From RL Polk: Americans are Holding their Vehicles Longer
Hey, question about some home improvements before putting house in market (maybe next year). Please tell me if you think expense is worth.
1- basement: ours is semifinished, drywalls, naked concrete floor, older suspended ceiling. Not a whole room, has separation for storage, laundry, etc. I was thinking of putting drywall and nicer light fixtures on ceiling, carpet on floor, painting whole thing. Would do this in two rooms, one to be rec room, the other office
2- Kitchen: Have older cabinets and counter, nice floor. Plan to leave as is, buyer can do as he/she wishes
24 – The answer is no extensive remodeling before a sale unless you are correcting for what might be perceived as a major defect and turn away the majority of buyers (hole in the roof, major water leaks, broken toilets/fixtures, major pet urine/carpet issues.)
http://www.remodeling.hw.net/2013/costvsvalue/division/middle-atlantic.aspx
Depending on your municipality, I would advise you to be cautious about new work if you are planning on selling soon, especially if you are not considering getting permits for the work. If your basement finishing was originally unpermitted, and you go ahead and make it look brand new, that might raise questions and put you in a pickle come closing.
#23
This only shows an improvement compared to the recession and bubble days. So what, big deal. That does not prove that people are saving as much as they should. Show me real data that proves that MOST people aren’t living paycheck to paycheck.
FEMA can not make any “homeowner” raise their house. Flood insurance AKA Fema is for Govt Backed (Fannie/Freddie loans), its main purpose is one govt entity is protecting another govt entity investment (home loan form defaulting)
I noticed in Long Beach the hot house to buy is any house that did not have flood insurance prior to Sandy.
Folks are picking up those homes for like 170K cash (was 340K pre-sandy) renovating them off the books with no permits for like 30K and then flipping them into a summer rental for 30K.
ICC increased cost of compliance claim, where someone with flood insurance requests money to have house raised is a rabbit hole. Town inspectors comb through house, making sure all repairs are done to code, then engineers and architects get involved, there were a few houses from Irene in Long Beach that folks went ICC route and they were still sitting empty come Sandy and those houses are now toast.
Jersey shore will be back stronger than ever. Out in Long Island Hampton Houses no on water are ON FIRE. No flood risk, no flood insurance. Folks now days would rather live walking distance to town, (bars and restaurants) North of Sunrise then down at Beach. You can always dive the two miles to beach. But living two miles from Beach in the Hamptons you are safe.
Down in Long beach Long Island, Point Lookout, Lido Beach, Atlantic Beach the beach towns that got minor sandy damage, are doing pretty well as Breezy Point, Far Rockaway and Long Beach got devastated.
I got a few neighbors who are selling now. Both are afraid to roll the dice. They completely renovated house on FEMA dime as they had flood insurance. It was extremely painful to complete, house is worth more than before Sandy and both fear if this happens again houses will tank, Flood Insurance will go through roof and they cant live through another six months out of house. 95% of neighbors are moving near me if flood happens again. I just wonder who they will sell to.
I hear from multiple ASIAN folk in last few weeks to BUY BUY, asians are buying multiple homes now, Indians and Chinese.
AG says:
April 8, 2013 at 8:34 pm
Down the shore its a tail of 2 markets. Those waiting for the finalized FEMA flood maps and those that are safe. In the safe zone houses are selling like its all bubbly again.
15 year rates sub 3% again.
Buy now or be priced out forever!
“Things should be fine when the Fed backs off the MBS buying.”
Never going to happen. I am waiting for the day when the Fed announces that they will increase the purchases due to “softness” in the economy.
Natasha (26):
You are so 1981. Who needs savings? Just be a good citizen and take out as much debt as possible.
Debt = Wealth
Oh yeah, pay more taxes too. It’s the right thing to do!
This only shows an improvement compared to the recession and bubble days. So what, big deal.
Of course it does, that’s the point, isn’t that the discussion we’re having? Economic recovery in the post-recession/post-bubble period? Or is this an academic discussion about the long-term sustainability of the US consumer and economy? The latter is always fun, but the problem is that it generally yields few real actionable insights … and the real problem is that it’s fodder for the armageddonist position.
What I mean by that is few people will actually put their money where their mouth (opinion) is in the latter case. All talk, no action. Do it folks, sell your houses, quit your jobs, pick up and move to some other county. Maybe Uruguay? I hear it’s beautiful, but a nice house in a desirable neighborhood will cost you almost a much as here these days. What does your net worth need to be to establish residency in Singapore?
Grim, I find that people think things are bad when it is bad for them. The Stock, Bond, Housing and Job Marker are pretty robust now.
Last night as I finally paid for my new place. It dawned on me that I made a cash offer on a house, no one asked me what I do for a living or asked for proof of funds. Same thing a few months ago when I bought my Caddie, was like coming up to dealer with check get car ready. I showed up car was ready handed them check and drove off.
No one batted and eye, recession is long over. Back in recesion days I got my car fixed once and guy was talking about financing, skipping repairs blah blah blah. Today it is like the 2012 Caddie CTS at 50K is a bargain get yours today. Meanwhile in 2009 four new tires at Pep Boys for the old Taurus was too much to bear.
Back in 2010 we were talking about short sales and BKs, now folks are talking buy as many homes as you can, buy buy buy.
Margin accounts are being used again. Mrs. Watanabe is day trading again.
Folks still in cash and renting got handed a sandpapered cucumber from Mr. Bernakee these last two years. Bend over cause Uncle Ben wants to ram you extra hard, maybe a little blood flowing out of your poop shoot will finally get you spending again.
From Time:
Scared to Prepared: How the Great Recession Changed Our Spending Habits
In the months following the financial crisis, just about everyone got religion. They rediscovered core values and began to place relationships and experiences above material things. But it was anybody’s guess how long this earnest austerity would last.
Five years later the economy is growing steadily, housing is recovering, and the stock market is at record highs. Certainly, there are signs of letting go, especially in the art market where The Scream recently sold for $119 million, the most ever for a painting at auction.
Yet for the vast majority, the shock of the Great Recession lingers — and that’s a good thing in terms of how most folks are managing their money. In a new survey from Fidelity, nearly half of respondents say even now they are saving more, reducing debt and building an emergency fund.
A new survey from Principal Financial finds that the number of workers preparing for retirement is on the rise and that most workers who expect a tax refund plan to save or invest it, or pay down debt. Before the crisis, people commonly cited going on vacation and buying big ticket items as well.
Perhaps most telling, the Fidelity survey found that 78% of those who have taken steps to shore up their finances say the measures are part of a new and permanent personal financial strategy. “The sheer number of people who say the changes are permanent was probably most surprising,” says Ken Hevert, vice president of retirement products at Fidelity.
People are moving from scared to prepared, Hevert says. When the financial crisis hit, 64% said they were scared and 45% said they were prepared; today, 45% say they are scared and 61% say they are prepared — a near perfect reversal. In general, those who feel prepared are the ones who have cut debt, increased savings and built an emergency fund.
…
Still, for many the Great Recession has provided a durable silver lining in the same manner that led the Depression-era generation to a lifetime of frugality. It may be too early to declare victory over excessive spending. But we’re beyond a good start, and the indications are that a great many people have changed their personal financial ways for the better, possibly for good.
Tax refunds next few weeks will be pretty big. Lots of folks getting 30-70K tax refunds from casulalty loss combined with the contractors getting big checks.
NJ and LI econonmy will be booming between now and July. Car dealerships, Libery Travel etc watch out.
grim says:
April 9, 2013 at 9:30 am
Hello all… Long time lurker here, since 2007-08…. Just had offer accepted on a house in Chatham. Over asking of course. 4 other offers on the house within 4 days of listing.
I tried calling Peter at A Full House inspections but he’s booked solid until 4/22. Can anyone suggest another home inspector that comes recommended for this area??
What does your net worth need to be to establish residency in Singapore?
Up until recently, it was $10m USD of which $2m could be used to purchase a home. You needed to remain for 5 years to be granted permanent residency.
Uruguay is probably a more realistic option…
Detached home in a nice area of Punta del Este runs for at least $500k, although you can get a nice apartment in the $300k range. Property taxes are a bitch though, I believe the average is around $5k a year, and higher on detached homes. Suggest that you pay cash, since getting a job might be a problem.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/wonkblog/wp/2013/04/08/why-do-people-hate-deficits/
25- thanks Grim. Municipality is Westfield. No major issues to fix nor hide, just wanted to make the basement a more “livable” place, I see that on every house in this town. My budget was much lower than what it is quoted in the link you put. I know I should talk this to a local realtor, I interview one not long ago but was very unimpressed. If you have a good reference would be appreciated.
Nom might have a recommendation for a local agent.
Agree, those prices are stratospheric.
Also, if you follow JJ logic, a new basement post Sandy will have buyers scared you flooded out.
39- it is well known that WF did not flood….ahh, wait, I get it, is a joke..”JJ logic”…god one
Curiously, people think things are good, when it’s good for them. Out in the world, NJ and NY unemployment is hovering near 10%.
“Grim, I find that people think things are bad when it is bad for them.”
13) I would happily donate several $k for a “private” Margaret Thatcher funeral, especially if it would be tax deductible, meaning I will be sending less to my plundering fellow citizens.
She was as good and principled as one could ever hope from a politician in real life, and she immensely improved England and the world, putting good principles into practice. Privatization and deregulation was enormously liberating. The people who hate her should move to Cuba or North Korea, the last vestiges of her enemy. Her accomplishments in England paved the way for many other countries around the world massively improving their own economies, and was probably the main reason that the term “Emerging Markets” ever happened.
By Steve Goldstein WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) — Payments to 4.2 million borrowers whose homes were in any stage of foreclosure in 2009 or 2010 will begin Friday, the Federal Reserve and the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency said Tuesday. The payments, which will range from $300 to $125,000, will be sent in several waves and are expected to be completed by mid-July. The regulators had previously announced the payments, which replaced a program that had consultants review foreclosures for errors. The payments come on mortgages serviced by 11 of 13 big servicers and will not prevent borrowers from taking any legal action related to their foreclosure. The regulators still have not reached agreement on ending the independent foreclosure review with OneWest, Everbank and GMAC Mortgage.
41 – So are we talking about the 18.8% unemployment rate in Cape May County, or the 7.1% unemployment rate in Morris County (which is actually better than the national average)?
And we’re not even talking about the bifurcations within county. I’d wager a guess that the unemployment in Dover and Mine Hill are much higher than the UE in Chatham.
you “would”, but you won’t.
As Grim said above, “few people will put their money where their mouth is…”
I actually never trust any house with fresh paneling/sheetrock in basement. Usually it is hiding something. Cracked foundation, water leakage etc. I once saw a bk years ago that had a new finished basement. Turns out home was built above an underground stream that kept cracking the basement floor and walls, house was actually top of hill. Anyhow owner cemented cracks in floor and walls best he could and then redid basement and sold immediately. Of course 3-4 years later floor cracks and new owner realizes only way to fix is to fill in basement and relocated mechanicals upstairs at a cost of like 250K. Instead he stopped paying mortgage and went BK and I saw it bank had exposed floor and was knocking 400K off purchase price. Cash only, when I sold my Moms house which was built in 1923 and was like 70 years old many folks commented the big selling point was a bone dry solid foundation Unfinished Basement, no hiding flaws. Cars with fresh paint jobs and homes with new finished basements scare me.
grim says:
April 9, 2013 at 9:57 am
Also, if you follow JJ logic, a new basement post Sandy will have buyers scared you flooded out.
800 homes flooded in Westfield during Irene. 500 hundred basements in Westfield need a fire department pumper to pump out basement
http://www.westfieldnj.gov/index.asp?Type=B_BASIC&SEC={13228820-E28B-4F2D-930C-7A287359CAB1}&DE={F975FA06-CBA7-4E74-86D7-89BAB9BC04CA}
45 is for 42
Some very interesting data down at the muni level…
2012 UE by Municipality (annual) – Municipalities with pop 25k+
West Windsor – 4.9%
Hoboken – 5.0%
Westfield – 5.6%
Bernards Twp 5.8%
Ridgewood – 5.9%
East Windsor – 5.9%
Livingston – 6.2%
Lawrence – 6.2%
Fort Lee – 6.4%
Montclair – 6.7%
Randolph – 6.8%
[47] JJ
I’m surprised it was so few. Everyone around me in the brig flooded during that storm. Amazingly, I got some seep but that was it. Most of that came in thru a conduit that didn’t have a drip loop. A little caulk and problem solved.
I got away lucky on that one.
And if that wasn’t surprising, check out the sub 25k towns..
Muni unemployment rate, sub 25k, 2012 annual (selected)
Rockleigh – 0%
Ho Ho Kus – 1.2%
Mountain Lakes – 1.4%
Princeton – 1.9%
Mendham – 2.1%
Cedar Grove – 2.7%
Chatham – 3.0%
Woodcliff Lake – 3.3%
Bernardsville – 3.3%
Park Ridge – 3.5%
Midland Park – 3.5%
Hanover – 3.9%
Montville – 4.1%
Warren – 4.4%
Berkeley Heights – 4.7%
Millburn – 4.7%
Kinnelon – 4.8%
Westwood – 4.9%
River Vale – 4.9%
Chester – 5.0%
Franklin Lakes – 5.0%
Caldwell – 5.1%
Holmdel – 5.3%
Verona – 5.3%
Mountainside – 5.4%
Summit – 5.4%
Harding – 5.4%
Northvale – 5.4%
Essex Fells – 5.5%
I can say from an anectdotal perspective there are more construction projects happening in Hoboken than the past few years. Resale listings appear to be about in the same price ranges as the past few years but some of them still seem pretty wishful. I think there’s some pent up activity waiting to happen everywhere after a bust like this but I don’t think it’s a sellers market again by any stretch.
Still question the sustainability of any uptick as I don’t see there being any sustainable demand. I’d think you are more likely to see a couple of decades of housing sliding along the bottom with a few intermittent years of uptick.
Hoboken is transient and young. Come Spring 2015 after all damage is repaired and town looks great home prices will be up.
Fabius,
(From yesterday)
Do you have a brain deficiency that rivals JJ and yome? Do you lack the ability to directly respond to anything? I brought up gun crime (and/or gun deaths) vs overall violent crime… and you come back with a response of private gun ownership and gun deaths. I’ve lost count how many times you ignore a question and change the subject.
And before I respond (directly) to your question about where illegal guns come from… why don’t you define for me what an ‘illegal gun’ is?
(53)
JJ,
Should I unearth the predictions of your claiming Ben will have raised rates by 2012?
Just checked in as tax season has had all my attention. Anecdotal on bifurcation. I am seeing that clients that were making 300k – 400k two to thee years back are now in the 600k -800k. Maybe 25% – 50% increases for those who were over 150k just a couple of years back. Folks around or under 100k are all right around the same. Unfortunately, I fall in the last group. 7 more days.
What he did in 2012 was same thing to me as raising rates. By stopping interest rate cuts, hinting bond purchases are coming to an end he has made duration a big concern. He made my entire bond position a ticking bomb instead of a cash cow.
All Ben did was extend the spanking. I do see Ben’s point, why rock the boat. He needs to let it clear rates are low, I aint lowering them anymore and at any moment I could raise them. By letting them stay at this rate for a bit it encourages folks to refinance, munis to refinance bonds and for folks like me to lock in Stocks and houses and slowly unwind bond positions.
I got zero percent wife’s truck, zero percent my new oil burner loans and now although I am paying cash for my place I am still taking advantage of low rates by selling long duration taxable bonds. I personally think 3.5% is outrageous for a mortgage, GM and Oil company have no problem with zero. Why do banks feel need to charge more than a 30 year bond is paying when average mortgage is more closely tied to 10 year bond yield.
joyce says:
April 9, 2013 at 11:18 am
(53)
JJ,
Should I unearth the predictions of your claiming Ben will have raised rates by 2012?
(44) Stayed in town of Cape May this past weekend. No sign of high unemployment down there. Prices are as high as ever. Food is still good, too. Yummee. Gained some weight.
It must be the white-trash towns around there. No, wait. Historically, that UE is low for this time of year. I remember, the UE is usually 25% around Feb-March. Everyone works in summer and collects off-season. Grim, nothing has changed.
A lot has to do with Cap Gains going from 15% to 23.9% encouraging people to sell winning stock positions. Some has to do with stock grants from 2009/2010 vesting in 2012 at a profit plus companies are giving raises again and bonuses
Salaries should fall in 2013 as folks no longer want to sell winning positions and 2011 stock grants vesting in 2013 wont be as big a return.
We are still in a Sea of Liquidity.
prtraders says:
April 9, 2013 at 11:22 am
Just checked in as tax season has had all my attention. Anecdotal on bifurcation. I am seeing that clients that were making 300k – 400k two to thee years back are now in the 600k -800k. Maybe 25% – 50% increases for those who were over 150k just a couple of years back. Folks around or under 100k are all right around the same. Unfortunately, I fall in the last group. 7 more days.
Did you see any clients taking big Sandy Casualty Losses?
prtraders says:
April 9, 2013 at 11:22 am
Just checked in as tax season has had all my attention. Anecdotal on bifurcation. I am seeing that clients that were making 300k – 400k two to thee years back are now in the 600k -800k. Maybe 25% – 50% increases for those who were over 150k just a couple of years back. Folks around or under 100k are all right around the same. Unfortunately, I fall in the last group. 7 more days.
(57)
Let me translate: “JJ: I was wrong”
And when the F did Ben hint he would stop printing?… answer = never
McDonald’s Cashier Job Requires Bachelor’s Degree
A McDonald’s job listing for a cashier in Massachusetts demands a bachelor’s degree and two years experience. Previously, only people in managerial or corporate positions needed that kind of degree, further showing how bad the unemployment situation
http://www.9news.com/video/2275088254001/1/McDonalds-Cashier-Job-Requires-Bachelors-Degree
Deck will be finished on Thursday. Final size is 16 x 27. Good old pressure treated douglass fir. There are 12 supports, lattice, all wood (no vinyl). Contractor will do the first pressure wash and seal in 2014. Oh yeah. Retractable awning too 13 x 10ish. You built a deck Grim. Wanna guess my final price? Plus, all labor is legal. No dumps on my lawn…right JJ?
$7500, maybe less since you are using PT railing and decking.
Including awning? Too low.
Also, cement pad at foot of steps.
[34] Randy — re home inspectors, I used Brett Kaufmann before, I think he did a good job:
http://www.kaufmann-consultants.com
Stand-up, no nonsense guy, former Army Ranger. Inspection took a few hours and I learned some stuff walking through it with him.
Next time around I may give the uberinspector a try just because he has that thermal imaging stuff (not sure if Brett has that or not, but I don’t recall it being an option when I hired him, although that was a number of years ago). But Brett would also be on my short-list.
I was wrong in theory. You were right in theory, since neither of us made trades based on prediction who cares.
If you think I am wrong bet some cash. Kinda like when Chifi and I were talking on stocks and bond bets back in 2009 regularly. I had no problem throwing down 25K on a trade that Chifi thought was bad. To prove him wrong that is how it works.
I sold some long duration stuff yesterday and today and will be selling a few bond positions every day for next week or two till I raise my cash. If rates shoot up two weeks from now I wont care that much once I sold every long term taxable position I own that is trading above par. Munis I could care less, you buy and hold till death.
So Joyce what is today’s bet? I am calling housing at or near bottom and I am buying. May be wrong may be right but I am testing the water, with this purchase gets housing back to right % of net worth.
joyce says:
April 9, 2013 at 11:44 am
(57)
Let me translate: “JJ: I was wrong”
And when the F did Ben hint he would stop printing?… answer = never
No idea, I know you said you knew the contractor so no idea of he threw you a break for the labor.
I did mine for under $10k material and the only labor I contracted out, which was a mason who came out and laid 20 feet of sidewalk, two stair pads, and poured my 12 footings. I’ve had people tell me that my deck would cost around $25k on the open market, especially since it’s freestanding, no ledger, which requires an additional set of piers and beam (I have 3 beams, each with 4 posts/piers).
#42 Ragnar
Her funeral should be paid for by the shareholders of British Gas and British Telecom and every other national asset she sold that wasn’t nailed down. She ripped out the heart of the British manufacturing and replaced it with high unemployment and service sector jobs. She shut the coal mines so companies had to replace it with low quality imported coal. She shut the Sheffield steel mills. The produced very high quality steel that was replaced with low quality imports. That in turn gave private sector companies that made things like surgical steel instruments big issues as they scrambled to find materials. If you want to see what the UK should have been like take a look at the Rhur valley in Germany. Unionised workforce producing high quality product. To clear up Eddies Rays view of the north of England, the dog was sick, but when the vet looked at in, instead of trying to treat it, she just shot it and all the vets since have been unable to revive it.
Her funeral will be interesting. There will not be crowds mourning in the streets like Churchill. I expect to see lots of bystanders and tourists pointing. I do expect protests, and will be surprised if it goes off quietly.
The most interesting summation of Thatcher is her political demise. It wasn’t the public or the opposition that took her out, but her own party and her own cabinet. Politically the end was brutal and in some way poetic.
Well what do you know, my appraisal came back higher than my offer.
I am already making money on my new home thank you Bob Kiyosaki for straitening me out on the path to becoming a Rich Dad.
So when do stated income loans come back? I might as well lever up and buy a dozen.
I have an old set of Carlton Sheets videos, time to break them out and watch them again.
Wife and I will do popcorn night this weekend with Carlton Sheets.
“I am calling housing at or near bottom and I am buying”
Nice vague statement. What does it have to fall from right now for it not to be “near bottom”? National of local? If local, specify? What time horizon?
#54 Joyce
Can you have a discussion without a personal attach. Ad Hominem will always detract from any point you make.
Now what question do you want answered as you bounced around a bit last night before you reached for UK violent crime. You seemed to ask if I could see any discharge of a gun by a private citizen that I would be find with. I am fine with hunting, target practice in a controlled area and putting an animal out of its misery.
Happy Renter–
Awesome, and he’s right in Madison. I put a call out and left a message. I’d rather not use an inspector recommended by my Weichert realtor!!
All, is it typical for my realtor to attend the inspection also? I dont want her “influencing the process”.
72 Now that’s f*cked up
Sorry Joyce meant to say that for your post 62
#59 JJ
As most vesting is treated as income, the high prices of 2012/13 would actual have hurt those 09/10 grants and the capital gains increase of 2012 to now would not be that much impact. Citi is up $2 over last years price.
Grants vesting this year are a double whammy. Not only the tax paid on the high vesting price, but a lot of stocks are probably looking at their high water mark, so they are only useful to offset future gains when their price drops back
Randy,
Welcome to the neighborhood.
I used Kevin Burnette at Foremost Property Inspections
201-337-0707
Inspected two houses for me..7+ hours on each one…told me to run from the first..got me some credits for the second that most inspectors would not have (most don’t climb roofs, he does)
I got spanked like a rented mule this year as I had some January vesting of 2011 grants.
Even though ordinary income like you said the higher tax rates plus 3.9% obamacare tax is a killer.
Plus everything I sell is up, I am not even selling stock, but the Junk bonds I am selling is way up.
Fabius Maximus says:
April 9, 2013 at 12:54 pm
#59 JJ
As most vesting is treated as income, the high prices of 2012/13 would actual have hurt those 09/10 grants and the capital gains increase of 2012 to now would not be that much impact. Citi is up $2 over last years price.
Grants vesting this year are a double whammy. Not only the tax paid on the high vesting price, but a lot of stocks are probably looking at their high water mark, so they are only useful to offset future gains when their price drops back
Grim…We have similar support system plus ledger boards. Since we went without permit, had to make extra sure it was better than code. The deck can definitely support a hot tub. All in, we are at $11,200. Perhaps Captain Cheapo might have dropped the ball on this one?
[74] If memory serves me correctly, the real estate agent (the one I was working with, not the listing agent) was there during the inspection, at least initially (probably opened the place up for us) although I think he left and came back so he was only there for part of it. He wasn’t tagging along with the inspector though (I was).
Maybe some housing inspectors let themselves be influenced by a real estate agent, but not the good ones — they work for you, not the agents. (And for that same reason, you are right to not accept the recommendations of your real estate agent when it comes to finding an inspector. The only real estate agent I’d trust on that one would be Grim.)
I remember Brett checking out the roof with binoculars, but I don’t remember him climbing up on the roof itself (it was in decent condition) like the guy NJ Resident mentioned, so if that’s a concern, I’d ask the inspector about that when you speak to him, regardless of who you go with.
[73] fabius,
“You seemed to ask if I could see any discharge of a gun by a private citizen that I would be find with. I am fine with hunting, target practice in a controlled area and putting an animal out of its misery.”
I could not help but notice that self-defense was conspicuous by its absence.
I take it that was an intentional omission. Casus omissus pro omisso habendus est.
Fab #70 really!? Coal miners unions had made the extraction of coal so expensive that it had mopre value putting it into the ground as well as the British change over to more nuclear and gas fired plants rendered it a legacy resource that was paid for though not very cost effective.
shutting the steel mills again made the cost of steel untennable while it may be of high quaility it’s cost made things like disposable medical instruments which are much less costly to healthcare overall, become preferred over the artisanal pieces used at the time.
unemployment numbers were miserable under thatcher the legacy of her policies put Britain on a strong footing following the prime minstership. One could argue though that the uneasy truce between the socialist state and capitalist one is coming to an end in Britain, but the overall legacy was that the short pain endured in the 80’s put Britain in a relative period of growth for the next 15 years only interupted by a stupid property bubble and global credit expansion.
Granted the brits never really made anything worth while other than early series land rovers, and has been a service economy since the end of WWII. Besides being wankers they should be lauded for doing a lot with very little being and island nation and all with piss poor geography, lack of abundant natural resources, f*cked up class structure, and a social safety net which rewards parasitism. Thatcher had a lot to do with putting them where they are in the modern world do deny that fact makes you a blind lefty who hates her because she was against your pet causes.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-04-08/thatcher-legacy-sees-employment-rising-amid-u-k-slump.html
As to the property inspections, it’s absolutely amazing how much you will have learned from your starter house to your second home purchase. When we bought the multi, I was afraid to touch everything as it was not my house. When I purchased our GR home not a faucet, socket, valve, or floorboard went untouched. There was little that Uberinspektor found that I didn’t. But his thermal imaging was awesome. Was nice to know that our 90 year old house had excellent insulation. The multi we own did not and the energy bills reflect this. Fortunately, the tenants pay for heat. When inspecting a home, take your time! Quite honestly, I can tell if a home is maintained well simply by looking at the furnace or by seeing how messy the attic is.
Climbing on the roof is nice, which the uber does. But, inspecting the attic and basement for water damage is much more important IMO. It’s pretty easy to determine the age of a roof by looking at it.
Messy attics are usually the case any house with a bunch of kids. New boiler in basement just means it is a home owner with pride in home or it floods alot.
I look more at stuff like windows, siding, floors, electric box. Expensive stuff
I am painting, fixing hand rail, staining deck, putting in new electric outlets and replacing dishwasher in new place but guy put in new floors, electric, windows, central air and heat. Expensive stuff, but place looked bad as hand rail and dishwasher was broken and some outlets were missing covers.
(54)
I will try.
I bounced around a lot because I was directly responding to your questions and comments. The same I cannot say for you. OK great, you answered one question. We’re finally off to a good start. Let’s try a few more, shall we:
April 8, 2013 at 10:48 pm
2) I’m not very familiar with the (unconstitutional) laws of the area, but do you have any problem at all with the ‘possession of a shotgun’ being a crime?
April 8, 2013 at 11:39 pm
“but my survival chances are better with the latter two”
Once again, your logic is horsesh-t. A large man vs a small woman, they both have fists, they both have knives, they both have guns… which scenario does the woman have the best chance in?
April 9, 2013 at 11:17 am
And before I respond (directly) to your question about where illegal guns come from… why don’t you define for me what an ‘illegal gun’ is?
Joyce, the McDonald’s job thing is a hoax.
http://abcnews.go.com/blogs/business/2013/04/mcdonalds-requires-ba-degree-not/
joyce says:
April 9, 2013 at 11:46 am
McDonald’s Cashier Job Requires Bachelor’s Degree
A McDonald’s job listing for a cashier in Massachusetts demands a bachelor’s degree and two years experience. Previously, only people in managerial or corporate positions needed that kind of degree, further showing how bad the unemployment situation
http://www.9news.com/video/2275088254001/1/McDonalds-Cashier-Job-Requires-Bachelors-Degree
I made an offer on a short sale and the bank countered. The sellers attorney said the minimum net proceeds for the bank are 270,000, and they are asking 295,000. Is this usually negotiable with the bank? The banks BPO came in at 302,000. In my opinion which doesn’t matter, their appraisal is on the high end but not ridiculous.
My post at 87 should have been directed at #73
Brian,
Good catch.
Did you make offer with listing agent? Did you talk directly with bank? Trouble with a recovering real estate market banks sit even longer on short sales.
finallybuying? says:
April 9, 2013 at 1:19 pm
I made an offer on a short sale and the bank countered. The sellers attorney said the minimum net proceeds for the bank are 270,000, and they are asking 295,000. Is this usually negotiable with the bank? The banks BPO came in at 302,000. In my opinion which doesn’t matter, their appraisal is on the high end but not ridiculous.
Made an offer through my agent, I was then copied in e-mails from the seller’s attorney stating the appraised value from the bank and minimum net proceeds. They did give me few days saying I can counter – just wondering in general how set the “minimum net proceeds usually is?
#82 Eddie Ray
As usual we are back to pedantic legal debate. I do not have a problem with self-defense (I assume the DA or jury rules it that way), historical re-enactments or even pumpkin chunkin. Do we have to litigate every example or will you accept that there are cases were I will support discharge of a weapon.
#83 pain
42% of the uk energy is still based on coal. 10 of the 42% of that is domestic production. In the years since the strike inefficiencies in energy production from coal and yes efficiencies in extraction. With steel can you say the same about German optics, yes there is a market for cheap disposable, but there is also a market for high quality. Carl Zeiss is a good example.
Thatcher divided the country and the middle class and up did well and the rest slid into poverty.
UK cars Series 1 and 2 land rovers. Aston Martin, Early Jags, Mini, TVR, AC, Rolls, Bentley, Lotus, etc etc etc
All this talk of decks? My new place has a 45 degree herringbone paver patio all around the pool approx area is 32 x60 with two separate one step landings into the house. there is a short retaining wall with front walkway made with same herringbone pavers ending in a nice circluar pattern. Separate grill area off kitchen is setup for outdoor kitchen if I ever decide to go the full monty on the back yard and build one.
Why did you use your own agent?
I bid on two short sales and both times the listing agent did a ton of work. Both agent said unless another agent comes in with a higher offer I am not pushing for it with bank. My last agent said she fought to “pre-qualify” offers. I don’t blame listing agents, after two years of dealing with paperwork on a short sale why give another agent 50% of commission.
My purchase I fought with listing agent to get price lowered. Only thing I had going for me is sellers agent met me and my family several times. Saw my Caddie, Saw my brand new Denali, knew a nice family was getting it and I had a cash offer.
If it was a listing agent telling my sellers agent telling owner of deal I would think it would weaken my hand. Also a total stranger is telling owner buyer is good.
Finally, sellers agent got whole commission. Unless she got another buyer on her own it was not worth it.
Downside, sellers agent works for seller, is lying to you. Tells you place is better than it is, lies on comps etc. You need balls of steel to do the deal. Everyone is lying to you and no buyers broker in your corner
finallybuying? says:
April 9, 2013 at 1:35 pm
Made an offer through my agent, I was then copied in e-mails from the seller’s attorney stating the appraised value from the bank and minimum net proceeds. They did give me few days saying I can counter – just wondering in general how set the “minimum net proceeds usually is?
JJ…I don’t mean a new furnace, but opening it up and seeing if things are clean. A new air filter is a nice sign. On a steam furnace, the sight glass should be clean as should the water inside.
And I agree. One must open and close all windows and storms. As well as valves to outside pipes (gas, water mains, etc.).
Sounds nice Juice. Patios are the best, from a maintenance standpoint.
#87 Joyce
2) I’m not very familiar with the (unconstitutional) laws of the area, but do you have any problem at all with the ‘possession of a shotgun’ being a crime?
Answer: Assuming owner registration, No problem, providing there are minimum barrel lengths (historical exclusions).
April 8, 2013 at 11:39 pm
“but my survival chances are better with the latter two”
Once again, your logic is horsesh-t. A large man vs a small woman, they both have fists, they both have knives, they both have guns… which scenario does the woman have the best chance in?
Answer: As I said the previous answer referred to me personally and the original question assumed unarmed. You are now arming the victim.
April 9, 2013 at 11:17 am
And before I respond (directly) to your question about where illegal guns come from… why don’t you define for me what an ‘illegal gun’ is?
Answer : how about that 357 in Vineland. It came out the Colt factory and was legally transfered to a registerd dealer. It was used as a murder weapon in Ohio and ended up dischahed in someone ceiling by a drug dealer. Yes I am making a fair assumption that the drug dealer is not the registered owner and I’ll even assum that he did not pull the trigger in Ohio.
And Joyce, my issue is not really with the guns, it is mainly with the owners.
The cases are getting a lot closer to home.
http://www.nj.com/ocean/index.ssf/2013/04/four-year-old_shoots_neighbor_in_head_in_apparently_accidental_shooting_in_toms_river.html
Didnt the little girl ask Obama why do guns exist? All they do is kill people and if none existed we all be better off.
Fabius Maximus says:
April 9, 2013 at 2:16 pm
And Joyce, my issue is not really with the guns, it is mainly with the owners.
99
Tap dance much? (first two responses)
As to the third… you could just answer the question rather than give a random story.
You mentioned registration more than once. Does the right of privacy not extend to gun owners?
Why can’t you just admit that simple possession of anything (including guns) is of no danger to anyone? And because something might be used, or misused… you want to criminalize its possession.
I know I’m voluntarily choosing to go ’round and ’round with you, but it’s quite clear that you do not believe in individual rights (or selectively believe in them). Some imaginary collective or ‘society’ has more rights than individuals. I’ll continue to go back and forth with you… but just know that on this topic you’re the one advocating violence.
Robo signing scandal has come to a close? Looks like the banks will let you short sell and then they may also send you a check for $300.
http://news.yahoo.com/us-banks-send-checks-4-153752525.html
Good luck with that plan. Maybe in your continual fantasy it will come true.
101.JJ says:
April 9, 2013 at 2:19 pm
Didnt the little girl ask Obama why do guns exist? All they do is kill people and if none existed we all be better off.
Got your email, James. Thanks for the info!
I think anyone who owns a gun in a densely populated area should have no right to privacy.
I was shocked a few year ago when my daughter got invited on a play date with some women we really did not know. I knew her husband was a blue collar rough around the edges guy but never talked to him. So wife was planning on staying and the husband is home in basement, cleaning his gun collection. Nut had a bunch of rifles and shotguns and dead animal heads on wall. It was a play date for 4 year old girls. Women said she did not know he would be home as his shift ended early and since he is hunting this weekend he wants to do it now.
Needless to say my wife went thank you for the play date offer, but I cant stay with the gun out but if you want to do a play date at my house no problem. She then goes well I would tell him to put them away but he would get mad he has a bit of a temper.
OMG that block is a bunch of 60×100 houses on top of each other near an elementary school. He has high powered rifles that go at least 1/4 of a mile in house and a temper.
But thank god he has his right to privacy so the neighbors dont know on other side of fence there are massive shot guns and ammo pointed at them and if house goes on fire they most likely will be killed.
No need for large amounts of firepower in nieghborhoods. Be like my uncle the cop one 38 special unloaded in a safe and nieghbors knew he had it
Tell that to the police in Chicago, Camden, Newark, etc etc
106.JJ says:
April 9, 2013 at 3:01 pm
No need for large amounts of firepower in nieghborhoods.
Fab if only 10% of the 42 is coming from domestic tht tells you about the high cost of extraction if it is that much cheaper to import. Bet you dollars to donuts that 10% is a governement bone to UK coal and if the consumers could drive down costs further from imports they would. For the record never said there was total replacement of coal just that the brits turned away from it as primary.
As for German made things there are two markets in Germany. high quality german made items which carry premium pricing Zeiss ptics, henkel knives etc. and there is the market produced chinese junk which is branded with the same name but is entry level. Kind of like weber grills here in the states.
for the record I’m not sure jags were ever considered good. The higher end bespoke hand made astons, bentleys etc sure. Lotus TVR Mg et al are generally regarded as garbage even by brits. Most any thing that rolls off an assembly line in Britain is generally regarded for its utter craptasticness. They were always better merchants than makers of things.
Hide your kitchen knives, their next.
http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/nation/2013/04/09/lone-star-college-stabbing/2067449/
JJ some times I’m convinced you may be the biggest wuss on the planet. sure the moron probably showed bad judgement cleaning in front of your wife and kids (if that is what really happened) but honestly your kids were probably in more danger of being hit by falling blue ice since you live in the approach pattern for laguardia than being harmed by his firearms.
My cousin was shot in the head when he was like 13 from an idiot cleaning a gun at home and fired into pillow in his bedroom to make sure it was empty, passed through the walls grazed my cousins head, blood poured out but it was just a big scar, nearly took his ear off too. That was in queens home of the 30×100 ranch, your neighobr could be five feet from you.
Painhrtz – Doc Daneeka says:
April 9, 2013 at 3:10 pm
JJ some times I’m convinced you may be the biggest wuss on the planet. sure the moron probably showed bad judgement cleaning in front of your wife and kids (if that is what really happened) but honestly your kids were probably in more danger of being hit by falling blue ice since you live in the approach pattern for laguardia than being harmed by his firearms.
BTW no blue ice near me but years ago a mexican hiding in the wheel well fell out of plane and cracked sidewalk like a mile from my house. Told wife I wonder if he would have lived if he landed in my pool, now that would be cool
Two more stories I absolutely believe.
I did read about the Mexican who fell out of wheel well. This is not that uncommon.
re # 111 – JJ – my cousin was shot point blank with a 22 between the eyebrows and another one clean thru his radius bone in his arm. Doc said he was either the luckiest man alive or had the thickest Irish skull he have ever seen, the 22 round actually bounced off his skull and only left a scratch. This happened late at night over on Jerome Ave so no surprises there. Funny thing is if you gave him a gun he wouldn’t have used it to defend himself anyway. I guess some are just lovers and while others are fighters.
Witnesses Say Corpse ‘Fell From the Sky’
I S L A N D P A R K, N.Y., Aug. 8
Nassau County police are investigating if a body found in Island Park fell from an airplane. Witnesses told police the body fell from the sky.
Police say the male body apparently fell from a plane headed to John F. Kennedy airport in Queens. It was found around 6:30 p.m. Island Park is in the flight path of many planes going to and from the airport. A body found in Long Beach last February was determined to have fallen from an airplane flying overhead. Police believe that the person had been hiding in the plane’s landing gear compartment and fell when the wheels were deployed.
grim (30)-
We are developed world prisoners. Is this an improvement in the state of mankind, or is it really a sign that we’ve all actually descended to Third World status?
“All talk, no action. Do it folks, sell your houses, quit your jobs, pick up and move to some other county. Maybe Uruguay? I hear it’s beautiful, but a nice house in a desirable neighborhood will cost you almost a much as here these days. What does your net worth need to be to establish residency in Singapore?”
#102 Joyce
I see a big distinction between the right of privacy of gun owners and the right of privacy for gun ownership. It is two different discussions.
I am not looking to to criminalize possession, I want accountable possession. If a gun is used in a shooting, I want to know why the original owner lost control of if. If you show me where the burglars took a crow bar and a torch to prise open your gun safe, you can have a pass, but if they took it out of your night stand, glovebox, etc etc. Also the same with ammo. Put a serial number on it so when it comes out of a body, we can work out where it came from.
I would love to have people and industries self regulate. But repeatedly they fail and that’s when the government has to step in and regulate for them. Gun owners have shown that they cannot maintain control of their weapons. Simple possession of a gun is a danger and the number of cleaning accidents is astounding.
Put a serial number on it so when it comes out of a body, we can work out where it came from.
This is basically impossible to do, as bullets disintegrate. The alternative is to sell full jacketed bullets instead of lead, and now you have the problem of bullets going clear through people, out the other side, and still going. You’d basically have a $20 single laser etched round that is going to be impossible to find once it leaves the intended target. Not only that, but every criminal on the street is going to realize how easy it is to grind off the etching, just like they do their serial numbers. End result? Lawful gun owners screwed, absolutely no impact to illegal gun crime.
Fab I don think you understand deformation, physics and the impossibility of stanping serial numbers on soft lead. Especially rounds as small as a .22. Not to mention folks who make and reload their own ammunition. Or are we going to outlaw that too?
Fab said “I would love to have people and industries self regulate” It is not in a companies best interest to kill their customers even tobacco, but that is why civil courts exist. If harm is done to you that impedes your liberty via product or action by company/individual you demand recumpence by petitioning the court. It is not perfect but that is how the system is supposed to work.
You do realize that all gun manufacturers include “fingerprinted” test fired cases with the gun, and in many states the gun dealer submits the casings to the state for cataloging. Guns leave somewhat unique “fingerprints” in shell casings, from where the firing pin contacts the primer. In many cases, these “fingerprints” can be used to match the spent casing with the gun owner.
Nevermind, turns out this was a complete failure, zero convictions, I think even NY shut down the program.
#108 pain
The fact there is any domestic production shows that cost of extraction is not the issue. Capacity is the issue.
With cars, I will give you British Leyland, but the rest of the crap cars were coming off GM and Ford assembly lines. For the Jags I think the Mark 2 and the Mark 10 i would call ugly. Practically ever car was stunning.
One of my personal favorites. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:1950_Jaguar_XK120_34.jpg
Back when I was in HS folks would by a Jag used cheap throw a crate chevy engine and tranny in and bondo up and paint the car and be styling and profiling.
Jags are and were very bad cars in the 60-80s. Whole rubber seals in engine would dry up by 60K miles and cars would leak oil everywhere.
The long hood V12 model was amazing, I was in one once, but a tune up and oil change on a 12 cylner car was crazy epensive
I haven’t been on here for very long, but I have come to the realization the JJ has an answer to everything that anyone posts and stories that outdo you all. JJ – no offense- but you sound just a little too amazing.
correction on 124
should be that JJ not the JJ
I don’t know, I think THE JJ sounds about right.
I can’t out do you!!! You are the best poster ever!!
Natasha says:
April 9, 2013 at 5:11 pm
I haven’t been on here for very long, but I have come to the realization the JJ has an answer to everything that anyone posts and stories that outdo you all. JJ
BMW makes Minis in Oxford, England.
http://www.bmwgroup.com/e/0_0_www_bmwgroup_com/produktion/produktionsnetzwerk/produktionsstandorte/werk_oxford.html
JJ-I am not trying to be the best poster ever. I actually have a life that I enjoy. I come on and skim through some of the posts. I don’t have the time to read through every link supporting each person’s opinion on the economy, government, gun control, etc, etc. I don’t try to be something I am not or try to appear more intelligent, worldly or wealthy than I am. I just make my occasional comments about how I feel at that particular moment. I am not full of sh#* and at this particular moment I feel that maybe you are.
#120 pain / grim
I did two years of physics in college. Laser etching the back of the bullet would make sense and should survive deformations. Will it survive fragmentation, maybe, maybe not. Can they pull the shell apart and grind off the number, yes but it will be a pain and normal users will not do it. If we can put a serial number on disposable scalpel blades it shows we have the technology. As for the cost, you are looking at fractions of a cent.
It’s not perfect, and its not the only answer. But it is achievable and its a lot harder than trying to justify doing nothing.
NJ Resident- Kevin at Foremost wants to know your first name as he is tracking referrals sir. Thanks for the rec and welcome to, look forward to being in your town.
If this is some kind of back door kickback scheme I think I should get a cut
118
Fabius,
The answer to this problem is not to make things harder or more expensive for people who are non-violent and have done absolutely nothing wrong. People who have been found by a jury to have been criminally negligent should be put in prison for a long time. If you want to tack on more time for situations in which a weapon was materially involved, I don’t think I’d have a problem with that. People who have been found by a jury to have been criminally violent, intentionally, should be put in jail for a VERY long time. None of this 15 year sentence = 6 years plus a probationary period upon release. Keep them in prison for 15 years, at least. Of course, this needs to be coupled with no longer incarcerating non-violent b.s.
When civil remedies are required, as Pain said, the courts are always at your disposal (yes, that system needs reform as well but that’s an aside). But back to the criminal aspect… as I said initially, other individuals should not have to suffer for the mistakes and crimes of others. That’s kindergarten logic. In conclusion, this country’s rule of law is not based on prior restraint (not supposed to be; the declaration and bill of rights are all about protecting the individual).
at least 25% for grim
Jeebus f*(#ing Christ.
“Last month Nakisha Bishop took out a loan to buy a $23,000 Toyota Camry and pay off several thousand dollars still owed on her old car. The key to making it work: she got more than six years—75 months in all—to pay it off.
“I had a new baby on the way, and I was trying to keep my monthly payment a little bit lower to help afford child care,” Ms. Bishop, a 34-year-old sheriff’s deputy in Palm Beach County, Fla., said recently. She pays $480 a month for the 2013 Camry, just $5 a month more than the note on her old car. The car won’t be paid off until her 1-month-old daughter is heading to first grade.
Ms. Bishop’s 75-month loan illustrates two important trends rippling through the U.S. auto industry. Rising new-car prices and competition among lenders to attract borrowers is pushing loans to lengthier terms. In part, banks see the longer terms as a way to attract buyers, by keeping monthly payments under $500 a month.
The average price of a new car is now $31,000, up $3,000 in the past four years. But at the same time, the average monthly car payment edged down, to $460 from $465—the result of longer loan terms and lower interest rates.”
http://autos.yahoo.com/news/introducing-the-97-month-car-loan-202203365.html
Last car I bought was Zero interest, free money folks. Lever up, only way out that is permitted is inflation.
Anyone buy a Candy Bar lately from a vending machine? Cost is now $1.05 for a Snickers or 5% more than last year.
Death sentence, execution in 90 days for anyone convicted or murder, rape, or assault on a child, all assets seized by the state. No appeal.
Done, I don’t want my tax dollars supporting these dregs.
I’d suggest public hangings as an option but I’m afraid someone might mistake me for an extremist.
If the public hangings are on TV, count me in.
Average cost for home inspection on 3BR/2Ba?? I’m being quoted from 550 to 1100!! The house just changed hands in 2008, and now the closing is being handled by a relo company. I’m thinking to go with the cheap guy of course? House appears very solid.
Randy if you can get him Uberinspector.
http://www.afullhouseinspectionco.com/
Grim – Death Sentence? Surely you jest. We aren’t communist enough for that.
In other parts of the world an entire family pays for crimes. There is a happy medium however in the USA we don’t prosecute the family instead we incarcerate the convict forever at the taxpayer cost. I once toured a factory kind of like what you would see in Pennsylvania for modular home except it was for jails. They were busy welding and printing cash like no tomorrow, they had Seg Scooters before anyone even knew what they were. There are billions locked into the system with over 2 million inmates, in fact the first thing the last Congressional stimulus bill did was make sure the jails in NJ had another $500 mil or so or less to make sure the convicts were not released do to the recession and the decline of tax receipts.
I would think Jail is a priority budget item even if the left does not.
There is no cure in jails and there is no cure outside of jails without work for those that
cannot even work a computer mouse or dig a trench or in the age of computers get a fresh start. Convicts on Wall St? or even convicts in McDonald’s? No freaking way.
End of rant, I never spent time and with luck never will.
Juice, thanks, tried him but he’s booked til 4/22.
Any idea what a typical inspection cost? 3br/2ba
I think the $1100 inspector saw our purchase price and is trying to chisel us.
How about forced labor? Perhaps an option to compete with China?
Years back we employed nonviolent convicts as part of an onshore outsourcing initiative.
Clients were always freaked out by the guys in the orange jumpsuits (they were bussed in daily)
Randy – cough up the county, there is no shortage of inspectors.
If it wasn’t for the possibility of wrongful convictions, I would say the death penalty for heinous crimes is a win-win-win.
re:145 -hence the last execution in NJ was 50 years ago.
They are all innocent so pay your taxes..
146
Even without the death penalty, releasing current and stopping the incarceration of future non-violent ‘offendors’ would lower to a much greater extent the costs involved.
[93] Fabius,
Nothing legal about it. You were asked a question. Your answer, which purported to be your view on acceptable gun use, did not include self defense, a fairly important use to many owners. Given your obvious erudition, I did not presume it to be an oversight.
Turns out it was an oversight. Or your position “evolved.” Not sure which. But it was hardly a lawyers trick to ask a question any journalism major should think of.
[143] grim,
Build Bentham’s Panopticon.