Housing market awash in cash – what recession?

From HousingWire:

It’s official: The investors are back

Tighter credit standards may be squeezing out the average buyer, but that just means that there are more properties available for investors. And investors are capitalizing on the increasing supply more frequently than they have since 2011.

According to RealtyTrac’s U.S. Institutional Investor & Cash Sales Report for the first quarter, the share of all-cash sales climbed to 42.7% of the total sales in the first three months of 2014.

That’s the highest since RealtyTrac began tracking cash purchases in 2011. It’s also up from 37.8% in the fourth quarter of 2013 and up significantly from 2013’s first quarter, when cash purchases made up only 19.1% of the market.

“Strict lending standards combined with low inventory continue to give the advantage to investors and other cash buyers in this housing market,” said Daren Blomquist, vice president at RealtyTrac. “The good news is that as institutional investors pull back their purchasing in many markets across the country, there is still strong demand from other cash buyers — including individual investors, second-home buyers and even owner-occupant buyers — to fill the vacuum of demand left by institutional investors.”

As Blomquist said, institutional investors (entities that have purchased at least 10 properties in a calendar year) made up a much smaller share of the market in the first quarter. Institutional investors accounted for 5.6% of all U.S. residential sales in the first quarter, down from 6.8% in the fourth quarter of 2013 and down from 7% in the first quarter of 2013 to the lowest level since the first quarter of 2012.

The top five markets for all-cash purchases were all in Florida. The number one market for all-cash purchases was Cape Coral-Fort Myers, where cash purchases made up 73.6% of the sales in the first quarter. The rest of the top five were Miami (67.1%), Sarasota (65.1%), Palm Bay (64.1%), and Lakeland (61.8%).

Other major metro areas with more than 50% all-cash sales included New York (57.0%), Columbia, S.C., (56.1%), Memphis (54.9%), Detroit (53.5%), Atlanta (53.2%) and Las Vegas (52.2%).

This entry was posted in Demographics, Economics, Housing Recovery. Bookmark the permalink.

126 Responses to Housing market awash in cash – what recession?

  1. grim says:

    Uh Oh – From CNN/Money:

    Janet Yellen’s big concern: Housing slowdown

    Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen is upbeat on the U.S. economy for the most part, but there’s one sector that causes her some concern: Housing.
    “One cautionary note, though, is that readings on housing activity — a sector that has been recovering since 2011 — have remained disappointing so far this year and will bear watching,” she told the Joint Economic Committee in prepared remarks Wednesday.

    The housing sector was a key part of the economic recovery last year but has since fallen short of economists’ expectations.

    Building permits — a gauge of future home construction — fell 2.4% in March, and existing home sales were flat. Economists had expected both these indicators would improve more, especially after blizzards and a cold winter put the housing sector largely on hold.

    Yellen cautioned that the warmer weather may not be enough to turn things around.
    “The recent flattening out in housing activity could prove more protracted than currently expected rather than resuming its earlier pace of recovery,” she said.

  2. grim says:

    The top five markets for all-cash purchases were all in Florida.

    Retirees that sell in high price markets, buy cash in low price markets. Would be cautious to call any of these folks “investors”.

  3. grim says:

    Some of the better commentary on the Barro/Ozimek/Other argument that has been going on in the press over the last few days:

    http://www.economist.com/blogs/freeexchange/2014/05/housing-markets

  4. funnelcloud says:

    All the low hanging fruit has been picked by the wealthy and those with connections,
    The little guy is now welcome to jump in for the scraps, at inflated prices of course!
    Money will soon be made available @ a bank near you.

  5. grim says:

    Wealthy and those with connections? Sarasota? I know it’s not a sexy conspiracy theory, but we all know it’s more likely that this involves a caravan of gray hairs in Buicks and Cadillacs, you know, with the baby boomer retirement now in full swing and all. Any retiree in any major metro area would have been able to cash out, even with the decline, and plow something less than 1/2 of their net into a place in Florida while smiling all the way to the bank to deposit the rest.

    That’s why I made a big deal a few weeks back about the press confusing cash sales and investor sales, and that “investor sales” is a completely arbitrary figure. Yes, some cash sales are investor sales, but there are also financed sales that are investors. Assuming all cash sales are to investors is misleading. Now it’s really all about perpetuating the meme around investor robber barons stealing real estate from poor widows.

  6. grim says:

    Or, if you really want a good conspiracy theory – it’s really more about the boomer locusts continuing their scourge on America. The mass locust migration will cause massive economic repercussions in high-cost areas, and will make low-cost areas and other vacation areas completely unaffordable for locals, a massive dislocation of their ill gotten wealth. The best we can hope for is a bubble to re-form in many of these areas to eliminate the ability to arbitrage, putting an end to the scorched earth migration. The most insidious of these locusts are the public boomer locusts, who will eschew any kind of responsibility towards their fellow citizenry and take their outsized pensions elsewhere, again leaving another generation on the hook for their retirement (notice a trend?). An entire generation, who have had their lives subsidized off the backs of others, will now have their retirements subsidized as well, surprise surprise.

  7. 1987 Condo says:

    #6…important goal is to not move to an area where those public pensioners migrate too…because you are exactly right about impact on the local area. I had a friend who pulled out of corporate life and yuppiedom of Westfield about 10 years ago…moved to exurbs of Massachusetts..only to find out that his neighbor was a retired NYC cop from Staten Island…..you can run…but you need to hide!

  8. Juice Box says:

    My development was built in 1974, all the grey haired boomers who have been here to ride the wave are going out feet first including our realtor who is still working. Perhaps the NAARP has some charts on the great grey hair migration south. JJ can you log in with your membership and download us some charts?

  9. Phoenix says:

    Lower taxes helped lure Toyota Motor Corp.’s North American headquarters to Texas from California, but the cash-rich company says it welcomes the opportunity to contribute to the public coffers in Japan.
    Mr. Toyoda described the tax bill as a badge of honor.

    “Being able to pay corporate taxes means we are contributing to society,” Mr. Toyoda said. “That makes me very happy.”

  10. anon (the good one) says:

    @UN: Ban Ki-moon: “targeting of children & schools is against intl law & cannot be justified” http://t.co/Svdx4hOezC
    #BringBackourGirls

  11. anon (the good one) says:

    “When the last tree has been cut down,
    the last fish caught,
    the last river poisoned;
    only then we will realize that one cannot eat money.”

  12. The Original NJ ExPat says:

    [3] How can you write that kind of article and never mention property taxes? But then again, most shills who blather on about the advantages of renting from a bank and town never do either.

  13. The Original NJ ExPat says:

    [12] In fact, only Ozimek mentions taxes. Are the numbers below in the right ballpark for anyone here (except JJ)? LOL:

    On housing, homeowners spend $9,399, including the mortgage, property taxes, and maintenance, and renters spend $8,548.

  14. 30 year realtor says:

    Currently have 3 properties on the market in Paterson. Combined total of the 3 list prices equals $179,700. No real estate bubble in Paterson. Can someone send me a few of those cash buyers?

  15. Painhrtz - Disobey! says:

    30 year are they section 8 multis?

  16. 30 year realtor says:

    Two single family and one conforming vacant lot zoned 2 family.

  17. 30 year realtor says:

    I have a couple of others waiting for list prices from the bank. One of those is a 2 family that had Section 8 tenants before we gave then cash for keys to vacate.

  18. njescapee says:

    my total monthly nut in Ft Lauderdale on a cash purchase:
    total 555
    condo fees: 245
    tax 170
    insurance 90
    water /sewer 50

  19. AG says:

    Florida is an overrated sh-thole for the most part. It’s all white trash, meth heads, and old people waiting to die. Would never buy there but renting for a year or two might make sense. The next section 8 housing boom will be all the retirement communities once the boomers start kicking the can.

  20. Painhrtz - Disobey! says:

    God I don’t envy you those have to be tough sells

  21. Fast Eddie says:

    NJExpat,

    [3] How can you write that kind of article and never mention property taxes? But then again, most shills who blather on about the advantages of renting from a bank and town never do either.

    Why would property taxes be mentioned? If you let a muppet think twice about a purchase, you lose the trigger for the swindle. Property taxes should just be an extension for buying a home, a technicality almost – which it is in the majority of the country. Here, in NJ, it’s a brainwashing ritual. We are told it’s just the way it is. Accept it. Despite the fact that salaries have DECLINED in the last decade and a half is a mere distraction.

    There are so many f.ucked bagholders, it’s staggering!! I have a cousin who bought in a so-so town in 2008. If he decides to sell, he’ll get not even close to the what he paid. I have a friend who bought in the same town, same year, same outcome. That’s two that I know personally and if I think about, I can probably come up with a few more. By the way, their kids don’t go to the “so-so” schools in the town they live. They decided to send them to a private school despite the fact that my cousin is paying close to $18,000 per year in taxes.

    Believe me when I tell you; if either loses their job, they’re screwed. Now, count the number of transactions from 2003 through 2008 in every so-so town and above and tell me how many muppets have lost their down payment or in negative territory in net worth.

    Housing is on a respirator HERE in our neck of the woods. And if one can’t see that, then you’re either easily swayed or a mark to be hoodwinked.

  22. A Home Buyer says:

    13 – Expat,

    In my area:
    Rent for a 1 Bedroom apt would cost 14000 per year (aprox. 1,200 mo.).

    Current PITI for a 2 Bdrm House, 15,000 a year. Assume 3,000 maintenance yearly. 18 K total.

    Assume I can sell for what I bought, the Principal portion can be neglected and it balances out for me. Of course nothing goes to plan, but the theory is plausible.

  23. Comrade Nom Deplume, Guardian of the Realm says:

    [19] AG

    Gotta agree. Not since spring break have I ever enjoyed traveling to Florida.

  24. If Janet is yellin, you must be sellin.

  25. Love the dinosaurs in Fl who still rock Mozilo tans and Miami Vice clothes.

  26. Comrade Nom Deplume, Guardian of the Realm says:

    I just saw an FB ad that said “Realtors Needed”

    Realtors are about as needed as lawyers or used car salesmen.

  27. Comrade Nom Deplume, Guardian of the Realm says:

    [25] clot

    Costco has Miami Vice shirts on sale. Thinking of getting me one for rocking my poolside.

    But until then, back to the salt mines.

  28. AG says:

    The future is grim no matter what it may look like today. Best bet moving forward is to stay close to the wealthy 1 percent where money can still be made. There is still plenty of wealth in the NY metro area. The alternative is to try to profit off the 99 percent. That means fast food, slum lords, food stamps, bail bonds etc. Eventually they are going to tax the crap out of everything when this farce economy goes t-ts up so live below your means, screw the trade up house, and work on being location independent.

  29. Michael says:

    America is quite the opposite. Not paying taxes is a sign of honor in our country. Tells you where our values and ethics lie. So sad.

    Phoenix says:
    May 8, 2014 at 8:30 am
    Lower taxes helped lure Toyota Motor Corp.’s North American headquarters to Texas from California, but the cash-rich company says it welcomes the opportunity to contribute to the public coffers in Japan.
    Mr. Toyoda described the tax bill as a badge of honor.

    “Being able to pay corporate taxes means we are contributing to society,” Mr. Toyoda said. “That makes me very happy.”

  30. Michael says:

    I agree. Fl is a shi! hole. Their laws attract them. Having a law where people can avoid child support attracts losers. Also, the warm weather year round attracts bums who can’t handle the cold in the north. That place is a total mess. If anyone thinks otherwise, you are kidding yourself.

    AG says:
    May 8, 2014 at 9:53 am
    Florida is an overrated sh-thole for the most part. It’s all white trash, meth heads, and old people waiting to die. Would never buy there but renting for a year or two might make sense. The next section 8 housing boom will be all the retirement communities once the boomers start kicking the can.

  31. Fast Eddie says:

    AG,

    Agree with everything you’re saying. Florida is fun for a vacation and that’s it. And definitely agree with staying close to the 1% and s.crewing the notion of trying to trade up. The only way I’ll trade up is if I put a stup1d price on my house and hook someone to finance my move.

  32. AG says:

    Michael, taxes are the problem. Marxists don’t understand that do they? I propose bringing back public shaming. Fat bastard on food stamps? Throw rocks at them. Pill popping dope heads? Throw syringes at them like a dart board. Muffin top on the boardwalk with tats and a nostril ring? Drop kick.

  33. NJCoast says:

    Where I live at the shore, the Florida move is only for tax purposes. Put the big shore house in trust and stay out of Jersey for 180 days a year. By declaring Florida residency you save on state income and inheritance taxes big time. You don’t have to be in Florida for the remainder of the year but you can’t be in NJ. Yes NJ checks.

  34. AG says:

    33, NJ, that is interesting especially if one can get in state college tuition for the kids. I will certainly have to look into that.

  35. funnelcloud says:

    Grim #5
    43 percent of all sales are “all cash” by institutional investors or wealthy individuals, (US or other) not just in florida but in NY, San Francisco, and other high markets, Institutional investors (Banks representing wealthy investors) are buying these properties,,, so what incentive do they have to give loans to the average joe, Its a fix, They will purchase the deals, inflate the prices, Charge inflated rents, then allow the money to flow for home purchases, The response will be people wanting to tax the rich more, Add a steap value tax to investment properties & homes that are not a primary residence or they will rent em out move 16 families into one house and trash it when theeviction notice arrives,

  36. funnelcloud says:

    PS
    I agree with your theory totally on number 6 the locust generation is a big part of the problem

  37. jj says:

    Redfin Survey: 40% of Home Sellers Plan to Price Higher Than Market Value
    Home sellers are kicking off the spring real estate season with what might be considered a risky pricing strategy: 40.3 percent say they plan to price their homes above market value, according to the latest Real-Time Seller Survey from Redfin (www.redfin.com), the technology-powered real estate brokerage. Redfin agents warn against this pricing strategy, as it usually doesn’t pay off for sellers.

    “Buyers this year are far less tolerant of overpricing, and homes that aren’t priced appropriately are likely to sit on the market until the seller is forced to reduce the price,” said Redfin Riverside area agent Paul Reid. “Buyers often interpret a price drop as a sign there is something wrong with the home, leading some to negotiate even more aggressively or lose interest altogether.”

  38. Fast Eddie says:

    A few prominent investors, however, feel the housing bust may have paused but never ended — and is going to get worse “Singe-family housing is overrated,” Jeffrey Gundlach, CEO of investing firm Doubleline Capital, said during a presentation at the recent Sohn Investing Conference in New York. “Where are the first time buyers? The kids are not alright.” Real-estate developer Sam Zell said recently that he expects the homeownership rate — which peaked in 2005 at 69.1% and is currently about 65% — to fall to 55%, which would be the lowest level since the early 1950s.

    http://finance.yahoo.com/blogs/daily-ticker/why-the-housing-market-is-suddenly-struggling-201005280.html

  39. jj says:

    Or just put it in the kids name you are leaving place to anyhow. A lot of old folks drive back and forth to Florida so near impossible to track where they are. NY/NJ pretty much folks dissappear after Thanksgiving and Reappear around Easter.

    But also a lot of old folks dont really have much income anyhow and own a lot of muni bonds. And a lot dont have enought to trigger estate taxes. NY is raising estate tax threshold to 5 million so 99% of folks have nothing to worry about.

    I do see folks in my condo declaring the star in NY and Homestead in Florida so somewhow they are declaring two primary residences. It is free ham. They dont want to pay NYS taxes but dont want to give up NYS tax breaks
    33.NJCoast says:
    May 8, 2014 at 10:26 am
    Where I live at the shore, the Florida move is only for tax purposes. Put the big shore house in trust and stay out of Jersey for 180 days a year. By declaring Florida residency you save on state income and inheritance taxes big time. You don’t have to be in Florida for the remainder of the year but you can’t be in NJ. Yes NJ checks.

  40. Michael says:

    If you ran for president on this line….you would have my vote

    AG says:
    May 8, 2014 at 10:23 am
    Michael, taxes are the problem. Marxists don’t understand that do they? I propose bringing back public shaming. Fat bastard on food stamps? Throw rocks at them. Pill popping dope heads? Throw syringes at them like a dart board. Muffin top on the boardwalk with tats and a nostril ring? Drop kick.

  41. grim says:

    If a cash sale takes place, there is next to nothing in the public record to allow you to make an inference about why the buyer purchased the property.

    You have a deed, with two names, and a price.

    Are you telling me that someone is calling everyone up and asking them who they are, and why they purchased?

    My parents bought a retirement house cash, in FL, with an ambiguous LLC name.

    Someone looks at the deed and sees that Mr. Joe Smith sold to Grimtastic, LLC for $300,000.

    What does this mean? It’s an LLC, so it must be an institutional investor? How the hell does someone know if the LLC is “wealthy” or not”

    What is they sold to Mr. & Mrs. Grim Sr? Are they investors, are they not? Is it a primary home? Is it a secondary home? Is it an investment home? You don’t know.

    I can understand looking at homes purchased under the same buyer name over a time period and make an assumption about that it is likely an institutional buying a large number, but I suspect the list is made up of significantly smaller players with lower numbers.

    Let’s not even get into the fact that many builders will establish a new llc for each project, which means a single builder might be buying dozens of properties, each under a completely different, and ambiguous name, with absolutely no linkage between them.

    I don’t understand, given the data we all have, how they can get from A to B, without making massive assumptions (which remain undocumented).

  42. jj says:

    Pretty Much this is the Day the Muni Died.

    Munis have finally reached levels of peanuts in interest like every other fixed income product. Old folks gave up CDs, treasuries, investment grade bonds slowly over last five years as upon maturity the rates were too low to reinvest principal. But Munis somewhow helped by a sell off in 2011 and 2013 still paid good rates and tax free. But 2014 drove rates lower and lower. Hopefuly the old folks bought very long term bond as the gravy train just hit a brick wall.

    Market Close: Munis Strengthened After Fed Speech
    by Maria Bonello and Hillary Flynn
    MAY 7, 2014 5:27pm ET
    .Muni bonds strengthened Wednesday amid low supply as Federal Reserve chair Janet Yellen spoke publicly for the first time this month.

  43. jj says:

    I paid cash June 2013 not for any other reason it was a lot of paper work to get a loan, buyer agreed to knock another 10K off, I saved almost 5k in closing costs and at time April 2013 and May 2013 rates were extremely low I did not want to buy more bonds and the bonds I sold I got top dollar for. Low interest rates also help folks selling bonds to buy Real Estate as much as folks buying real estate. I only sold corporate bonds as the tax rates went up and wanted to unload some anyhow. How folks are enjoying my old GMAC and Genworth bonds who ever bought them

  44. The Original NJ ExPat says:

    [35] That’s kind of what they do in Boston. My net property taxes just dropped about 4 hundred bucks down to $1675. That’s for the year, not the month. They didn’t lower my taxes, they just raised the residential exemption to $1763.84 . Everyone who owner-occupies gets that same flat rate off their taxes. If I moved and rented my place out, my taxes more than double to over $3400. The end result is there is ~$150/month “surcharge” to be landlord in Boston. I think property taxes are a huge problem across most of the better places to live, but I also realize that to have my two kids in great public schools at a cost of under $1700/year total, I’m getting a real sweetheart deal.

    Add a steap[sic] value tax to investment properties & homes that are not a primary residence or they will rent em out move 16 families into one house and trash it when the eviction notice arrives,

  45. funnelcloud says:

    Grim #6
    The one area in your commentary that I have to disagree with is that the locust are wealthy, A good many of the generation born between 1945 and mid 1950’s haven’t saved a dime, They pissed it all away like good time Charlie, They road a wave during a period of time when they could get good jobs with a high school education, buy a home, support a family and get great perks to boot, They toked there way through the 60’s, Screwed there way through the 70’s, Became involved in local politics in the 80s and voted themselves benefits time and time again for the next generation to pick up, The facts are there its not a conspiracy theory, numbers do not lie. They are the largest voting block in american history and the capital is petrified of there voting power, Hence Congress will take benefits from the the X’ers, millenialsvor other but will not consider a cut to the boomers. They are the most irresponsible generation to follow the greatest generation and they WILL leave a path of destruction before they all die off. There epitatph will read “I GOT MINE”

  46. Michael says:

    Great post. I agree. Middle America is dead. Those towns and cities are going the way of dinosaurs. You have to basically live on the coasts. Best location is the northeast close to nyc. Highest concentration of wealthy people to go along with access to lots of water. North Jersey is exactly where I want to be this century. Due to the water wars that will soon be coming, I would never live in texas or cali, or any place that is dry and arid. They are going to be competing with an ever smaller supply of water to go with a growing population. That means they are going to be paying an arm and a leg for water. Stay in north jersey if you know what is good for you. Anyone leaving for these other areas will

    AG says:
    May 8, 2014 at 10:14 am
    The future is grim no matter what it may look like today. Best bet moving forward is to stay close to the wealthy 1 percent where money can still be made. There is still plenty of wealth in the NY metro area. The alternative is to try to profit off the 99 percent. That means fast food, slum lords, food stamps, bail bonds etc. Eventually they are going to tax the crap out of everything when this farce economy goes t-ts up so live below your means, screw the trade up house, and work on being location independent.

  47. grim says:

    44 – Wait, you are saying that renters are indirectly subsidizing resident owners, sweeeeet.

  48. Street Justice says:

    To the experts in such things:

    Is there any truth to what my plumber is telling me? Starting next year you will only be allowed to buy “efficient” hot water heaters and nothing larger than 50 gallons?

  49. Comrade Nom Deplume, Guardian of the Realm says:

    [48] street

    Sounds nonsensical and probably a misinterpretation of the energy efficiency rules.

    As for tank size, why would it matter? Water use? You can just go tankless.

  50. The Original NJ ExPat says:

    [47] Yep. Not only that, I’m being subsidized by NJ dollars. Do you know how many NJ college kids rent apartments in Boston?

    44 – Wait, you are saying that renters are indirectly subsidizing resident owners, sweeeeet.

  51. grim says:

    48 – Just install 2.

    Just like my master shower, each shower head is flow controlled … so I added 3.

  52. chicagofinance says:

    un mod?

  53. chicagofinance says:

    grim your stupid WordPress and its filter sucks!

  54. Comrade Nom Deplume, Guardian of the Realm says:

    Apologies if I already posted this, but in light of the President’s agenda, I found this quote by him to be especially ironic:

    http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2014/04/24/obama-japanese-robots-a-little-scary/

    Okay, back to tax work

  55. 1987 Condo says:

    When buying my condo in 1987 I was from NYC and clearly did not understand impact of property taxes. I was convinced by my Govel Realtor that my $3,300 a year tax would actually go down! 2 years later we were at $5,500 (900 ft condo in 1989!) We used Saul-Wolfe for a massive 160 unit appeal. I was so clue less that we did not vote on School budgets in Belleville because we had no kids and I thought it would be unfair to express an opinion! lol

  56. anon (the good one) says:

    @njdotcom: Christie administration proposes 23 fee increases with new budget http://t.co/QgUPZAkcYu

    “increase in the licensing fee for a home improvement contractor from $90 to $110.”

    AG says:
    May 8, 2014 at 10:23 am
    Michael, taxes are the problem. Marxists don’t understand that do they? I propose bringing back public shaming. Fat bastard on food stamps? Throw rocks at them. Pill popping dope heads? Throw syringes at them like a dart board. Muffin top on the boardwalk with tats and a nostril ring? Drop kick.

  57. jj says:

    Muni Yields Setting 11-Month Low as Rally Overwhelms Sell Calls By Brian Chappatta

    Yields in the $3.7 trillion municipal market are the lowest in 11 months as demand for tax-exempt state and local debt overwhelms new offerings.

    The rally drove the largest exchange-traded muni fund to the highest level in almost a year. The $3.22 billion iShares National AMT-Free Muni Bond ETF climbed to $108.35 (MUB) per share at 11:24 a.m. in New York, the highest since May 30, data compiled by Bloomberg show. Benchmark 10-year bonds yield 2.35 percent, the lowest since June. Yields move inversely to prices.

    The rally runs counter to expectations that interest rates would rise as the economy strengthens. Muni returns in 2014 have been driven by the fewest sales in three years, and have outpaced those on stocks, Treasuries and corporate securities.

    MUB bought on 12-31-2013 was some big fat juicy tax free bargain

  58. jj says:

    What do you think of Knowles (KN)?

    Friend gave me this stock tip but as usual I dont trust folk. It supplies tons of stuff to apple and samsung and is sitting near a 52 week low

  59. Hughesrep says:

    48

    Not quite.

    In 2015 anything over 55 gallons will require higher efficiencies. In essence gas heaters over 55 gallon will have to be condensing type, electrics will have to be heat pump type water heaters.

    Less than 55 gallon heaters will require increased efficiencies, but not so drastic.

    Grim- the flow control on shower heads is usually just a piece of plastic, I always remove mine.

  60. Xolepa says:

    Joined discussion late. I have a vacant lot in a gated secure community in Sarasota county. One of the last not built on. Gulf town. Bought from foreclosure at 1/5 the price of the last bagholder. Will not build yet, but association fees are $100 per month, taxes currently 1300 yearly. Average sale price of homes in the development past few months is high $4s and going higher.

    Cash sale, of course.

  61. Xolepa says:

    (46) Michael, you say North Jersey is the place to be. Really? Why would you prefer that over say, Hunterdon County or Somerset. Here in Hunterdon, we have the weathiest and healthiest in the state. We have more water than you (the reservoirs).

    What we don’t have is your overcrowded rat-in-the-cage lifestyle and the commensurate pollution.

    There was a discussion held on this forum several years ago and the participants agreed, reluctantly, that Hunterdon was the place they would rather live.

    Only JJ disagrees. But then, he lives the life of a rodent!

  62. grim says:

    Somerset and Hunterdon are smack dab in the middle of the Northeast Megalopolis. Erase the state, county, and town lines, and you’ll find a massive city that stretches from Boston, through NYC, through Philly, through Baltimore, down to Washington.

    The definition of suburb and exurb is blurred in the context of living in one of the densest regions of the world. Somerset as a suburb and Hunterdon as an exurb would not compare to the suburbs and exurbs of the central US. In fact, most “towns” in this area are larger than most “cities” elsewhere.

  63. Nomad says:

    Is there a point at which the fed can no longer suppress interest rates?

    http://finance.yahoo.com/news/could-5-8-years-shrink-170415188.html

    Michael, re: if water is so critical, area around the great lakes becomes more important, no? Water sources in NNJ relative to population make ratios in other parts of the country more desirable. Large scale cost efficient desalinization still not a reality although at one point, a company was trying to commercialize technology to accomplish this and generate electricity simultaneously.

  64. Michael says:

    I have lived in jersey my entire life. I would consider hunterdon and somerset north jersey. Not west jersey, central jersey, or any other name people give for certain parts of jersey. There is a north and south, plain and simple.

    Xolepa says:
    May 8, 2014 at 1:25 pm
    (46) Michael, you say North Jersey is the place to be. Really? Why would you prefer that over say, Hunterdon County or Somerset. Here in Hunterdon, we have the weathiest and healthiest in the state. We have more water than you (the reservoirs).

    What we don’t have is your overcrowded rat-in-the-cage lifestyle and the commensurate pollution.

    There was a discussion held on this forum several years ago and the participants agreed, reluctantly, that Hunterdon was the place they would rather live.

    Only JJ disagrees. But then, he lives the life of a rodent!

  65. Fast Eddie says:

    There is a north and south, plain and simple.

    I agree. And what a difference!

  66. grim says:

    For example… Relatively unknown Woodbridge/Edison has a larger population than:

    Kansas City, Kansas
    Dayton, Ohio
    Grand Rapids, Michigan

    It almost beats Des Moines and Akron, Ohio – we’re talking about only two relatively unknown towns.

    Toms River (unknown again), larger than:
    Duluth, Minn
    Sioux City, Iowa
    Racine, Wisc

    Clifton NJ is almost as large as very famous Dearborn, Michigan.

    Paterson NJ is as large as Green Bay, Wisc.

    Columbus Ohio – 223 square miles – 787,000 residents
    Passaic County NJ – 197 square miles – 502,000 residents

    What we call a county, they call a city. How does that calculus even work?

  67. njescapee says:

    AG your stereotype of Floridians is amusing but the rich folk and capital from NY/NJ/CT are swiftly flowing south to Florida. Check out the renewed luxury development in south Florida Miami/Ft Lauderdale/Palm Beach.

    AG says:
    May 8, 2014 at 9:53 am
    Florida is an overrated sh-thole for the most part. It’s all white trash, meth heads, and old people waiting to die. Would never buy there but renting for a year or two might make sense. The next section 8 housing boom will be all the retirement communities once the boomers start kicking the can.

  68. grim says:

    Bergen County has a higher population than the entire state of:

    Vermont
    Wyoming
    DC Metro
    North Dakota
    Alaska
    South Dakota
    Delaware

  69. Michael says:

    If you look at a satellite based image of the u.s., you will notice something, the only part that is green is east of the Mississippi river. The reason north jersey is better than say mich, is because we are right by nyc. Whole different economy. Mich has water, but good luck finding enclaves filled with the 1%. Plus, jersey has the beach and mountains to go along with access to the city. On a positive note, I bet the majority of housing is pretty cheap in mich.

    “Michael, re: if water is so critical, area around the great lakes becomes more important, no? Water sources in NNJ relative to population make ratios in other parts of the country more desirable. Large scale cost efficient desalinization still not a reality although at one point, a company was trying to commercialize technology to accomplish this and generate electricity simultaneously.”

  70. Michael says:

    It’s their vacation homes. Yes, florida is super wealthy in a few locations, but the majority of the state is filled with people I try to stay far away from. I had grandparents who moved out there after they retired. Stayed for about 5 years and moved back up for good. I had some redneck’s calling me a yankee and wanting to fight me over the civil war. Claiming the south never lost. I was 12 years old in 92, and this kid was 10 spewing this junk at me. Don’t even let me get started with what neighborhoods looked like where old people don’t live or rich people don’t vacation. Trailer park after trailer park. Talk about trash.

    njescapee says:
    May 8, 2014 at 2:34 pm
    AG your stereotype of Floridians is amusing but the rich folk and capital from NY/NJ/CT are swiftly flowing south to Florida. Check out the renewed luxury development in south Florida Miami/Ft Lauderdale/Palm Beach.

  71. The Original NJ ExPat says:

    Trenton and Clifton have nearly identical populations…by number of inhabitants, that is.

  72. Michael says:

    71- Also, with the climate change and the oceans warming, be prepared for a super hurricane destroying a lot of homes in fl in the next 10-20 years. What natural disaster’s hit the north east that destroys everything? North east has the oldest stock of homes in the nation for a reason, they last a long time compared to the rest of the country. Texas, for example, you are lukcy if your foundation lasts 10 years. Ground sucks for building. Bet they don’t tell that to all the people moving to texas that, or that the state already has passed its’ population point for which their water supply can support.

  73. The Original NJ ExPat says:

    Tavistock is a borough in Camden County, New Jersey, United States. As of the 2010 United States Census, the population was 5,[7][8][9] reflecting a decline of 19 (-79.2%) from the 24 counted in the 2000 Census, which had in turn declined by 11 (-31.4%) from the 35 counted in the 1990 Census.[17] As of the 2010 Census it was the smallest municipality by population in New Jersey, with seven fewer residents than nearby Pine Valley, which had 12.[18]

    At the 2010 United States Census, there were 5 people, 3 households, and 2.001 families residing in the borough. The population density was 19.7 per square mile (7.6 /km2). There were 3 housing units at an average density of 11.8 per square mile (4.6 /km2). The racial makeup of the borough was 100.00% (5) White

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tavistock,_New_Jersey

  74. jcer says:

    On the north and South Jersey vs. central. I consider central the areas by the turnpike central, I don’t consider monmouth or ocean counties south jersey, Monmouth and Ocean close to beach are the Jersey Shore, further in it is central jersey all the way to princeton. South Jersey is philly suburbs camden, Atlantic, burlington, cape may, salem counties anything inland above that area is central, when you cross the turnpike above middlesex it is north jersey.

    Florida is a third world country inside the US, massively wealthy and dirt poor at the same time, it might as well be Brazil. The super wealthy in areas with large police force and ring fencing, nice weather 6 months of the year and no income tax or inheritance tax. Nice for retiree’s but for regular folks it simply is not a good place to raise a family because of poor schools and a large dirtbag population.

  75. Michael says:

    73- forgot to add in fireants in the south…..nothing like your electronics getting destroyed by ants, or giants mounds in your lawn.

    Anyone living in the northeast, I beg you to move away. Please. Better for the rest of us, that you leave.

  76. The Original NJ ExPat says:

    I’m not sure how the math works that they came up with 2.001 families out of a total headcount of 5 people.

  77. njescapee says:

    I get it… Michael = Al Gore= AG

  78. Michael says:

    If someone from out of state comes to jersey, there is a north or south. The way you described jersey, is from someone living in jersey. I should have clarified that in my post.

    jcer says:
    May 8, 2014 at 2:53 pm
    On the north and South Jersey vs. central. I consider central the areas by the turnpike central, I don’t consider monmouth or ocean counties south jersey, Monmouth and Ocean close to beach are the Jersey Shore, further in it is central jersey all the way to princeton. South Jersey is philly suburbs camden, Atlantic, burlington, cape may, salem counties anything inland above that area is central, when you cross the turnpike above middlesex it is north jersey.

  79. Nomad says:

    Michael, was referring only to the water part. No need to convince me about the economic situation in Detroit although for all the bravado about a couple of the malls in N Jersey, Somerset in suburban Detroit is a click above. Still plenty of big money in key suburbs but yes, the city will never return to it’s glory days.

    From an economic development point, the new economy is such that even the tri-state area can no longer rest on it’s laurels. Between pharma an IB, lots of good jobs gone forever and silicon alley along with the bio-tech development that will go up on Roosevelt Island are two initiatives to attract and keep high paying jobs in the area.

  80. Michael says:

    Al gore? Did you just see the report on climate change this week? We are pretty screwed. Bro, 97% of scientists have come to the conclusion that human influenced climate change is alive and real. Have you seen the weather patterns in nj, the past 5 years? This is not normal, but keep thinking it is.

    Wait till you see how dry it gets in the western u.s. Telling you, northeast is the safest place to setup shop.

    njescapee says:
    May 8, 2014 at 2:55 pm
    I get it… Michael = Al Gore= AG

  81. jcer says:

    Michael fyi michigan is beautiful the problem there is one of economics. The business climate has been so bad in that state for so long you try getting a job that pays well out there. Oh and its farking cold in the winter. Detroit suburbs are pretty nice and not too cheap to live in, taxes are high, and schools are good. There is no good reason for businesses to move to MI, it doesn’t have the cost or tax advantages of other states, businesses care about concrete things as it relates to their business not how livable a place is.

  82. Anon E. Moose says:

    ONJExPat [74];

    But which one has bike paths?

  83. Michael says:

    There is enough money in the 50 mile radius around nyc to last 100s of years. Put it this way, if the northeast is feeling pain, the rest of the country is screaming from pain. It all comes down to off-shoring of jobs. In a sick way, this off-shoring of jobs brings even more money to nyc, but at a cost to the rest of the country.

    “From an economic development point, the new economy is such that even the tri-state area can no longer rest on it’s laurels. Between pharma an IB, lots of good jobs gone forever and silicon alley along with the bio-tech development that will go up on Roosevelt Island are two initiatives to attract and keep high paying jobs in the area.”

  84. Michael says:

    Go back to my post, I didn’t say it wasn’t beautiful. I agree with you, it’s economics. Yes, they have rich people, but just not the insane amount that live in the tri-state area.

    “The reason north jersey is better than say mich, is because we are right by nyc. Whole different economy. Mich has water, but good luck finding enclaves filled with the 1%. Plus, jersey has the beach and mountains to go along with access to the city. On a positive note, I bet the majority of housing is pretty cheap in mich.”

    jcer says:
    May 8, 2014 at 2:59 pm
    Michael fyi michigan is beautiful the problem there is one of economics. The business climate has been so bad in that state for so long you try getting a job that pays well out there. Oh and its farking cold in the winter. Detroit suburbs are pretty nice and not too cheap to live in, taxes are high, and schools are good. There is no good reason for businesses to move to MI, it doesn’t have the cost or tax advantages of other states, businesses care about concrete things as it relates to their business not how livable a place is.

  85. Painhrtz - Disobey! says:

    growing up in a southern bergen county town anything below Newark was south jersey, there was not central jersey. Depends on where your from I guess.

  86. jj says:

    Bergen County has a higher population than of Indians and Asians the entire state of:

    Vermont
    Wyoming
    DC Metro
    North Dakota
    Alaska
    South Dakota
    Delaware

  87. Michael says:

    She makes a pretty damn good argument. ESP the last line, where she says that you should think twice about an expensive education in order to get a job because there are no jobs.

    This is exactly why you can’t privatize education. They fuc!en raid it. You can’t have public tax money going to private business. That owner robs the tax payer blind. All these crappy for profit colleges sprang up and conned idiots into signing up at their crap school, all in the name of raiding the tax dollars. They did not care about education at all. Then the fuc!en bankers jumped in like hyenas and destroyed the system. Thanks for destroying our higher education system with the con to try and get every citizen into higher education so that you could just take advantage and rob them. How do these people live with themselves? They are nothing more than greed driven vampires. They always ruin everything with their greed. Every system and society always falls victim to greed. All I know is that we better not privatize k-12 education. It will just turn into a fuc!en business, where they come up with schemes, to profit off of children.

    http://www.upworthy.com/how-america-managed-to-turn-going-to-college-into-a-bad-investment-2

  88. Ragnar says:

    Spent my morning flying to California. Test driving the BMW i3 and i8 tomorrow.

  89. Michael says:

    88- Yes, I’m fuc!ing livid!!!

  90. Michael says:

    Grim- my post was blocked….can you help me out?

  91. Michael says:

    91- it was about offshoring

  92. Bystander says:

    #73,

    “What natural disaster’s hit the north east that destroys everything?”

    Really? I don’t know..Irene and Sandy. We even had a 5.8 eathquake three years ago. I think you also understimate damage caused by heavy ice and snow every yearn Perhaps it can’t be zoomed in by helicpoter to create the mass effect like a Hurricane but it is significant none the less. Also, are AIG or Lehman considered natural disasters? I might argue they are the natural results of our f-ed system.

  93. chicagofinance says:

    The End Is Nigh (News At 11 Edition):
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=R2tzx9sd6vc

  94. Michael says:

    These people built in flood zones….fuc! them!

    Bystander says:
    May 8, 2014 at 5:41 pm
    #73,

    “What natural disaster’s hit the north east that destroys everything?”

    Really? I don’t know..Irene and Sandy. We even had a 5.8 eathquake three years ago. I think you also understimate damage caused by heavy ice and snow every yearn Perhaps it can’t be zoomed in by helicpoter to create the mass effect like a Hurricane but it is significant none the less. Also, are AIG or Lehman considered natural disasters? I might argue they are the natural results of our f-ed system.

  95. chicagofinance says:

    Wonder Land

    Obama Unleashes the Left

    How the government created a federal hunting license for the far left.

    In the U.S., the politics of the left versus the right rolls on with the predictability of traffic jams at the George Washington Bridge. It’s a lot of honking. Until now. All of a sudden, the left has hit ramming speed across a broad swath of American life—in the universities, in politics and in government. People fingered as out of line with the far left’s increasingly bizarre claims are being hit and hit hard.

    Commencement-speaker bans are obligatory. Former Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice withdrew as Rutgers’s speaker after two months of protests over Iraq, the left’s long-sought replacement for the Vietnam War. Brandeis terminated its invitation to Somali writer Hirsi Ali, whose criticisms of radical Islam violated the school’s “core values.”

    Azusa Pacific University “postponed” an April speech by political scientist Charles Murray to avoid “hurting our faculty and students of color.” Come again? It will “hurt” them? Oh yes. In a recent New Republic essay, Jennie Jarvie described the rise of “trigger warnings” that professors are expected to post with their courses to avoid “traumatizing” students.

    Oberlin College earlier this year proposed that its teachers “be aware of racism, classism, sexism, heterosexism, cissexism, ableism, and other issues of privilege and oppression.” The co-chair of Oberlin’s Sexual Offense Policy Task Force said last month that this part of the guide is now under revision.

    I think it’s fair to say something has snapped.

    Mozilla co-founder Brendan Eich was driven out as CEO for donating money to support California’s Prop. 8. An online protest tried to kill Condi Rice’s appointment to the Dropbox board of directors over Internet surveillance. Incredibly, Dropbox CEO Drew Houston didn’t cave.

    Earlier this year, faculty and students held a meeting at Vassar College to discuss a particularly bitter internal battle over the school’s boycott-Israel movement. Before the meeting, an English professor announced the dialogue “would not be guided by cardboard notions of civility.”

    In the Harvard Crimson, recently, an undergraduate columnist wrote: “Let’s give up on academic freedom in favor of justice.” How would that work? “When an academic community observes research promoting or justifying oppression, it should ensure that this research does not continue.” She explicitly cited for suppression the work of conservative Harvard government professor Harvey Mansfield.

    It’s obvious that the far left has decided there are no longer constraints on what it can do to anyone who disagrees with it. How did this happen? Who let the dogs out?

    The answer is not university presidents. The answer is that the Obama administration let the dogs out.

    The trigger event was an agreement signed last May between the federal government and the University of Montana to resolve a Title IX dispute over a sexual-assault case.

    Every college administrator in the U.S. knows about this agreement. Indeed, there are three separate, detailed “Montana” documents that were signed jointly—and this is unusual—by the civil-rights divisions of the Justice and Education Departments. Remarked DoJ’s Joceyln Samuels, “The government is stronger when we speak with one voice.”

    That’s real muscle. But read the agreement. It is Orwellian.

    The agreement orders the school to retain an “Equity Consultant” (yes, there is such a thing) to advise it indefinitely on compliance. The school must, with the equity consultant, conduct “annual climate surveys.” It will submit the results “to the United States.”

    The agreement describes compliance in mind-numbing detail, but in fact the actual definitional world it creates is vague. It says: “The term ‘sexual harassment’ means unwelcome conduct of a sexual nature.” But there are also definitions for sexual assault and gender-based harassment. All of this detailed writ is called “guidance.” As in missile.

    No constitutional lawyer could read this agreement and not see in it the mind of the Queen of Hearts: “Sentence first, verdict afterwards!” Indeed, the U.S. Education Department felt obliged to assert that the agreement is “entirely consistent with the First Amendment.”

    First Amendment? It’s more like a fatwa. The Obama administration has issued a federal hunting license to deputize fanatics at any university in America. They will define who gets accused, and on what basis.

    The White House enabled these forces again last week, releasing an Education Department list of 55 colleges that are “under investigation” for possible Title IX violations. Not formally cited but “under investigation.” The list includes such notorious Animal Houses as Catholic University, Swarthmore, Knox College, Carnegie Mellon and Harvard Law School. In truth, every school in America is effectively on the list.

    Make no mistake, universities under constant pressure from the Obama administration and the most driven members of their “communities” will comply and define due process downward. If the liability choice falls between the lawyer brigades at the Holder Justice Department or some 19-year-old student or an assistant professor who didn’t post the course’s “trigger warning,” guess who will get tossed to the Marcusian mobs at Harvard and Vassar?

    If it’s possible for the left to have its John Birch moment, we’re in it. Wave goodbye to cardboard civility.

  96. Michael says:

    If you can afford to risk building something in a flood zone or even worst, on a slender barrier island/beach, you better be able to afford to build it again. Just my 2 cents.

  97. 30 year realtor says:

    Just got another house in Paterson that will bring down my average Paterson price.

  98. Michael says:

    You think Paterson will ever get better? Meaning, would you buy an investment property in Paterson?

    30 year realtor says:
    May 8, 2014 at 6:07 pm
    Just got another house in Paterson that will bring down my average Paterson price.

  99. Young Buck says:

    99. Of course. Small time landlords make their money in the ghettos. Says the guy with 2 Elizabeth two-family’s.

  100. jcer says:

    Paterson doesn’t have too much going for it, too much section 8, and federal housing projects, not enough transit to really turn around. Not in our lifetime, Newark just might, Jersey City is everything but a sure thing as long as manhattan rents keep it up. In patterson you’d need to be a slumlord, you could make some money but it’s not going to get yuppified like Hoboken or Jersey City.

  101. Michael says:

    College was a great experience. What a shame, greed ruins everything.

    “IMHO, the biggest problem the economy has is the enormous student debt new college grads and those leaving college find themselves with. In the past leaving college meant getting a job and getting a used car and/or an apartment with some friends. Yes there was student debt, but it wasn’t any where near your car payment. You could still afford the car and the apartment. Now its the exact opposite. Today, the minute you graduate college you face the challenge of debt against a college education whose value is immediately “underwater”

    As a result spending habits have changed dramatically. Now when you leave school you move back home. You take public transportation or borrow your parents car. The only thing new you buy is the cheap work outfit you need. Savings ? Forgettaboutit. It’s not happening. Your entire focus is on hitting your monthly nut for school debt , credit card and maybe a car or apartment. The crush of college debt has taken an entire generation of graduates, current and future out of the economy. Which is exactly why the economy hasn’t grown and won’t grow beyond microscopic growth rates we have seen so far.

    So until we get the meltdown in college education, don’t expect much improvement in the economy. Who gets elected won’t make a dang bit of difference.

    Update: Let me add some clarification here based on some of the comments. I include the Online For Profit Mills that live off of the government delivering student loans as part of traditional education. Phoenix, Strayer, etc, they are not the new generation of Branded Education I am referring to. They are a big part of creating the bubble. i should have gone into more depth here. I will save it for another post.

    As far as the purpose of college, I am a huge believer that you go to college to learn how to learn. However, if that gaol is subverted because traditional universities, public and private, charge so much to make that happen, I believe that system will collapse and there will be better alternatives created.”

    http://blogmaverick.com/2012/05/13/the-coming-meltdown-in-college-education-why-the-economy-wont-get-better-any-time-soon/

  102. Michael says:

    102- “Its far too easy to borrow money for college. Did you know that there is more outstanding debt for student loans than there is for Auto Loans or Credit Card loans ? Thats right. The 37mm holders of student loans have more debt than the 175mm or so credit card owners in this country and more than the all of the debt on cars in this country. While the average student loan debt is about 23k. The median is close to $12,500. And growing. Past 1 TRILLION DOLLARS.

    We freak out about the Trillions of dollars in debt our country faces. What about the TRILLION DOLLARs plus in debt college kids are facing ?

    The point of the numbers is that getting a student loan is easy. Too easy.”

  103. grim says:

    Gentrification won’t happen, it needs to be in near proximity to a highly desirable area.

    Ghetto next to glamour, that it ain’t got.

    There has been substantial improvement in a number of areas in both Passaic and Paterson. South American/Latino influx into many areas of Passaic have had marked positive influence. Drove down Market St. in Passaic yesterday and it wasn’t bad at all, a number of brand new bars and restaurants, not a single scratch of graffiti anywhere.

    Likewise the Muslim influx into many areas of Paterson has been beneficial in bringing many neighborhoods back from almost total disrepair.

  104. grim says:

    I’m sure xenophobes just waiting to weigh in, but damned if I won’t go back to market st to get a bite to eat over the next few weeks.

  105. grim says:

    These guys are doing a relatively good job though:

    http://artfactory.us.com

  106. Michael says:

    The difference in passaic from the 90’s to today is staggering. It’s night and day. That city really turned around. Says a lot about the Mexican people. It also says a lot about the prior occupants during the 90’s. I’m not going to say what groups, not trying to be called a racist. But the picture is telling. This might actually be good for clifton real estate long term. The areas that you speak of in Paterson border clifton. Also, passaic in general on all borders is much better. The Jewish orthodox community is expanding at a drastic rate. Couldn’t believe my eyes when I saw a house sell for 1.7 million in 2012 by latterri park in clifton by the passaic border recently.

    grim says:
    May 8, 2014 at 6:42 pm
    Gentrification won’t happen, it needs to be in near proximity to a highly desirable area.

    Ghetto next to glamour, that it ain’t got.

    There has been substantial improvement in a number of areas in both Passaic and Paterson. South American/Latino influx into many areas of Passaic have had marked positive influence. Drove down Market St. in Passaic yesterday and it wasn’t bad at all, a number of brand new bars and restaurants, not a single scratch of graffiti anywhere.

    Likewise the Muslim influx into many areas of Paterson has been beneficial in bringing many neighborhoods back from almost total disrepair.

  107. Michael says:

    I don’t know too much about Elizabeth, but it’s no Paterson, right? What’s a comparable city to Elizabeth?

    Young Buck says:
    May 8, 2014 at 6:23 pm
    99. Of course. Small time landlords make their money in the ghettos. Says the guy with 2 Elizabeth two-family’s.

  108. Michael says:

    What I’m worried about is Paterson becoming like parts of Detroit. Like just totally worthless land. You see this happening? That’s my only concern, I don’t want to get caught in a bad real estate deal.

    jcer says:
    May 8, 2014 at 6:25 pm
    Paterson doesn’t have too much going for it, too much section 8, and federal housing projects, not enough transit to really turn around. Not in our lifetime, Newark just might, Jersey City is everything but a sure thing as long as manhattan rents keep it up. In patterson you’d need to be a slumlord, you could make some money but it’s not going to get yuppified like Hoboken or Jersey City.

  109. Michael says:

    109- are there still areas of jersey city worth investing in?

  110. jcer says:

    A lot of competition from big players, but JSQ looks like a hell hole today, will probably gentrify quite a bit.

  111. Ben says:

    You should have seen Rutgers the day Obama first got elected. The students took to the streets around 1:30 am and they marched down Easton Ave screaming. I woke up and thought they were rioting.

    It was clear to me then….the next 4 years were going to be tough.

  112. anon (the good one) says:

    “Global drugs war a ‘billion-dollar failure’
    Last updated: 7 May 2014
    Nobel-prize winning economists support academic report which says global drugs policies created $300bn black market.”

  113. anon (the good one) says:

    @SportsCenter: BREAKING: The Houston Texans have made Jadeveon Clowney the No. 1 overall pick in the NFL Draft. #HOUpick http://t.co/lCePoUDvTs

  114. 30 year realtor says:

    Certain neighborhoods of Paterson are and will continue to be prone to boom and bust. Below Madison Ave from route 80 to about 7th Ave going west and most of the North Ward particularly below N. 7th Street fall into this category. I don’t see a Detroit like future for Paterson. Rental market is way too strong for that to happen. The vacant lots from the occasional fire that remain vacant in today’s market will be built on in the run up to the next bubble. As everything else in the region appears to be improving and the displaced poor people need to go somewhere and that somewhere is Paterson.

    The house I got today is on Totowa Ave between Hinchcliff Stadium and West Broadway. Abandoned for several years and rumored to have structural issues, it is a poster child for abandoned properties, graffiti and all. Couldn’t even get into it today, the property was sealed tight with boards clear across the front at porch level. We unseal it tomorrow at 9:30AM.

  115. The Original NJ ExPat, cusp of doom says:

    [102] Michael – You were already in the decline, you just didn’t know it. If you graduated college in the early 80’s you graduated with ZERO debt, you got a job at 4-6X your earning potential with no degree, got YOUR OWN apartment, bought a NEW car and SAVED a 20% downpayment on a Condo or House in 2-3 years all by yourself. Once you had that first job you said FU to your parents and never looked back. Some of us cut the umbilical years before graduation, putting ourselves through the last couple years. A short time ago we discussed this here. There was no such thing as credit OR debt UNTIL we graduated. We hustled for cash all through college and we started out with that same cash mentality. Debt isn’t something you “service”, debt is something you strive to get out of and you only feel truly “safe” when you are free from it. It’s a nearly extinct mindset.

    IMHO, the biggest problem the economy has is the enormous student debt new college grads and those leaving college find themselves with. In the past leaving college meant getting a job and getting a used car and/or an apartment with some friends. Yes there was student debt, but it wasn’t any where near your car payment.

  116. 30 year realtor says:

    My family owned about 6 apartment buildings with around 200 units in Paterson. I was born in Paterson and have been around it all my life. My father’s business partner still owns a retail store on Main Street.

    Paterson has serious issues. It is the heroin capitol of the east coast. It also has plenty of employment opportunity nearby, inexpensive and abundant rentals and a strong immigrant community. There is no reason to be on a death watch for Paterson.

    One of the strongest immigrant communities that everyone overlooks are the Bangladeshis. They are taking over the Totowa section.

  117. anon (the good one) says:

    @NewsBreaker: NFL DRAFT: Latest Now http://t.co/kn7Ps4n8My – @SportsCenter

  118. anon (the good one) says:

    as Michael would say, your posts are good, very insightful

    30 year realtor says:
    May 8, 2014 at 9:01 pm
    My family owned about 6 apartment buildings with around 200 units in Paterson. I was born in Paterson and have been around it all my life. My father’s business partner still owns a retail store on Main Street.

    Paterson has serious issues. It is the heroin capitol of the east coast. It also has plenty of employment opportunity nearby, inexpensive and abundant rentals and a strong immigrant community. There is no reason to be on a death watch for Paterson.

    One of the strongest immigrant communities that everyone overlooks are the Bangladeshis. They are taking over the Totowa section.

  119. The Original NJ ExPat, cusp of doom says:

    [115] 30 year – We really appreciate your “boots-on-the-ground” reports. I have a soft spot in my heart for Paterson. My parents rented the 2nd floor of their downstairs German landlords house on Knickerbocker as newlyweds when I was born in the early 60’s and I was a driver for the limo and school bus company on the corner of Knickerbocker and Railway Ave in the early 80’s while finishing school. John Artis worked at that bus company before he was was convicted with Hurricane Carter and worked their immediately after being released in the early 80’s. He was one of the nicest guys I ever met. Both of my Mom’s parents were textile workers in Paterson, working well into their sixties.

  120. anon (the good one) says:

    @pourmecoffee: Johnny Football http://t.co/YdVaF2QU18

  121. The Original NJ ExPat, cusp of doom says:

    Wow! I hope this project gets completed.

    http://vimeo.com/85385623

  122. 30 year realtor says:

    Yesterday I put an empty shell of a single family house on the market on Mill Street in Paterson. Bank gutted the property, treated every square inch for mold, put on a new roof and replaced the wooden stairs to the front and back entrances. No heat. Some old wiring but not enough to meet current code. Waste lines are still in place but there are no supply lines and no heating pipes. The view is the 30 foot high wall supporting Route 80 on the other side of the street. No off street parking. Lot is 25 x 125 and house is built at the front of the lot. List price is $29,900.

    My expectation was the only offers would be from investors. I was wrong! Already have an offer from a young man (guessing he is Turkish) who owns a business in the neighborhood. Proof of funds in hand to pay cash. Maybe this is why I am bullish on the survival of Paterson. Young blood is buying in!

  123. jcer says:

    30 yr, poor immigrants absolutely. Most NNJ urbanity goes that way. Theses are the only places labor can afford to live around here.

  124. jcer says:

    Compared to Islamabad, or Mexico City Patterson looks pretty good!

  125. chicagofinance says:

    WTF is this crap?

    WSJ
    U.S. NEWS
    Cash Cures Mortgage Blues
    Amid Housing Recovery, More Retirees Pay in Full; ‘Financing Is Just a Pain in the Butt’

    By KRIS HUDSON CONNECT
    May 8, 2014 7:46 p.m. ET
    Americans are still buying homes in all-cash deals, despite more investors leaving the market, according to a new report. MarketWatch’s Quentin Fottrell discusses what cash deals means for the housing recovery on MarketWatch.
    All-cash home purchases are on the rise again—buoyed by retirees instead of pure speculators—signaling a shift in the way Americans view homeownership and in the mortgage market.

    During the year’s first quarter, 33% of the existing homes sold in the U.S. were purchased entirely in cash. That was up from 31% for all of last year and 29% in 2012, according to a monthly survey of roughly 3,000 real-estate agents commissioned by the National Association of Realtors.

    Cash sales began rising sharply in the aftermath of the housing bust, mainly due to the voracious appetite of professional investors using cash to buy heavily discounted homes to rent or flip.

    Now, the all-cash sales reflect a fundamental change as the housing market continues to heal. Economists and real-estate agents say the rebound in all-cash deals is bolstered by retirees who are using the equity in their existing homes to buy different homes to downsize or for rental income. In addition, some buyers would rather forgo the headaches of getting a mortgage under strict qualification standards that have cropped up since the housing slump.

    “Financing is just a pain in the butt,” said Skip Hanson, a 69-year-old retired logistics executive, who in March paid cash for a 1,200-square-foot condominium in Scottsdale, Ariz. “It takes forever. The things you have to go through nowadays to finance are incredible.”

    Mr. Hanson and his wife, Sandy, got a 7% discount on the $145,000 condo by paying in cash, Mr. Hanson said. The couple, who live in Sun Lakes, Ariz., intends to rent out the condo as an investment.

    The Hansons’ real-estate agent, Kris Anderson of Your Premier Team RE/Max Excalibur, said she has found of late that fewer banks are willing to lend to Canadians and other foreign nationals seeking to buy second homes in Arizona.

    Economists and housing-market observers say mom-and-pop investors remain active in the home market even as institutional investors rein in their buying. The percentage of all-cash sales rose despite declines in purchases by investors and a shrinking number of foreclosed homes.

    Sales of distressed homes—those saddled with a past-due mortgage or foreclosure—declined to 15% of existing-home sales in the first quarter from 17% last year and from 26% in 2012 as the dwindling number of steeply discounted homes curtailed investor purchases.

    Meanwhile, baby boomers have liquidity from resurgent equity in their longtime homes and stock-market gains. The Standard & Poor’s 500-stock index climbed 30% last year, and the median home price rose 7.9% in March from a year earlier.

    “A lot of retiree buyers have greater buying power,” said Mark Vitner, senior economist at Wells Fargo & Co. in Charlotte, N.C. “They may need to buy with cash because, in a lot of the hot markets, they’re competing with investors.”

    Real-estate agent Kris Anderson recently assisted on an all-cash deal at a Scottsdale, Ariz., condominium complex. Brandon Sullivan for The Wall Street Journal
    Paying in cash circumvents the legwork of obtaining a mortgage, which since the downturn has entailed more extensive documentation, higher credit-score benchmarks and larger down payments than in previous years. “It’s significant that cash carries no hassles in closing a deal,” said Doug Duncan, chief economist for Fannie Mae. “It’s a lot cleaner than going through a mortgage process.”

    According to the Realtors survey, cash deals remained a large portion of sales in states that cash buyers traditionally favor, including Florida, Arizona and Nevada. But cash purchases jumped in the past year in states such as Minnesota, with an increase of six percentage points to 34%; South Carolina, up six percentage points to 40%; Ohio, up seven percentage points to 34%; and Missouri, up seven percentage points to 33%.

    “The cash deals that we’ve seen have been primarily in the under-$200,000 price range,” said Chris Prescott, a real-estate agent in Minneapolis with Redfin Corp. “They have been primarily investors snapping up properties to rehab and put back on the market.”

    A report released Thursday by real-estate data provider RealtyTrac confirmed the Realtors group’s report, finding that 42.7% of existing-home sales in the first quarter were cash deals, as opposed to 19.1% in the first quarter a year earlier. RealtyTrac’s data is based on a sampling of transaction deeds and loan data.

    In Florida, cash purchases have held steady in the mid-50% range, making it the biggest state for cash deals. The state draws from two pools of typical cash buyers: retirees and foreigners. The latter have had difficulty getting mortgages in the U.S., partly because their credit histories aren’t established here, said Brad O’Connor, a research economist with the Florida Realtors association.

    Meanwhile, the increase in all-cash sales goes beyond existing homes. Domain Homes Inc., a builder in Florida’s Tampa Bay market, previously did few sales to all-cash buyers. Yet in the past year, 20% of Domain’s sales were all-cash, President Sharon McSwain said.

    Two of Domain’s buyers are Sarah Mines and John Geddes, a paralegal and author, respectively, who are purchasing a new, 1,800-square-foot home in St. Petersburg from Domain for $300,000 in cash. The British couple currently is renting an apartment in the city.

    “We didn’t apply for financing, because we have the cash,” said Ms. Mines, 40. “I’m done with mortgages.”

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