October Beige Book

From the Federal Reserve:

October Beige Book

Second District–New York

Growth in the Second District’s economy has slowed to a somewhat more modest pace since the last report. Prices of finished goods and services continue to rise at a subdued pace; cost pressures remain fairly widespread among service firms but have largely subsided among manufacturers. Labor market conditions have shown further signs of strengthening, except in the manufacturing sector, where hiring activity has slowed. Contacts in most industry sectors report that business has been steady or improving, though manufacturers report that growth has stalled in recent weeks. General merchandise retailers report that sales were mixed but, on balance, weaker since the previous report; auto dealers report that sales were steady to slightly stronger. Tourism activity has continued to show strength since the last report. Housing markets have been steady or stronger, with inventories rising to more normal levels. New York City’s commercial real estate market has continued to strengthen moderately, and there are scattered signs of a pickup in commercial construction. Finally, banks report that household loan demand has leveled off but that demand from commercial borrowers continues to grow; delinquency rates continue to decline, particularly for commercial loans and mortgages.

Construction and Real Estate

The District’s housing markets have been steady to stronger since the last report, while inventories have risen from unusually low levels in some areas. Rents have leveled off in Manhattan and Brooklyn–in part reflecting extensive luxury rental development coming on line–while rents in Queens have continued to increase briskly. New York City’s co-op and condo market was generally steady in the third quarter. Resale prices for apartments were little changed in Manhattan but continued to rise moderately in Brooklyn and Queens; sales volume was down more than 10 percent from the extraordinarily high levels of a year earlier but little changed from the second quarter.

Northern New Jersey’s housing market has continued to be mixed. Demand for single-family homes has remained sluggish, and so has new single-family construction, as builders remain reluctant to build for inventory. In contrast, a strong rental market has continued to spur multi-family construction, especially in areas easily accessible to New York City. Housing markets in western New York State flattened out in August and September, as both sales volume and prices leveled off. Multiple offers have become less common, as the inventory of available homes has increased from low levels.

This entry was posted in Economics, Employment, Housing Recovery, New Jersey Real Estate. Bookmark the permalink.

103 Responses to October Beige Book

  1. Comrade Nom Deplume, a.k.a. Captain Justice says:

    frist, m’fers

  2. anon (the good one) says:

    There’s an entire literature showing how the emotion of fear makes people more politically conservative. That’s gonna show up on election day

  3. jj says:

    BULL MARKET IS DAYS AWAY. Get your buying boots on baaaaaby.

  4. anon (the good one) says:

    Europe is going down, but proudly going down with a ‘balanced budget’

    “Something is clearly very wrong in the eurozone. This looks like a deflationary spiral. That is what’s spooking markets right now,” said Jeremy Batstone-Carr, chief economist and strategist at London-based brokerage and wealth manager Charles Stanley.

    @JosieCoxWSJ: “Something is clearly very wrong in the eurozone” Our coverage of the situation as it unfolds: http://t.co/FKVQGkEeL2 via @TomStub @WSJ

  5. anon (the good one) says:


    Applications for US unemployment benefits plummet to 14-year low of 264,000.

  6. Fast Eddie says:

    [2] Great. Anything to halt this administration from further destruction is a step in the “right” direction.

  7. 1987 Condo says:

    watching CNBC:

    “It ain’t what you don’t know that gets you into trouble. It’s what you know for sure that just ain’t so.”-

    Mark Twain

  8. NJGator says:

    Fast Eddie – they were still working with exposed necks when treating the staff that caught the virus from Duncan.


  9. jj says:

    soon as DAX could not hold 9K critical suport level it was look out below. ten days straight DAX is down and it is getting oversold big time.

  10. grim says:

    Jobless claims 264k, 14 year low.

  11. Comrade Nom Deplume, a.k.a. Captain Justice says:

    Saw this MSNBC story about (gasp) two DEMOCRATIC lawmakers who foiled an attempted mugging with . . . . wait for it . . . Their Concealed Guns!


    But after a few sentences, the MSNBC story devolves into unrelated narrative on the anti-gun effort.

    Is it any wonder no one (except anon, otto and fabian) take MSNBC seriously?

  12. Juice Box says:

    re: # 10 – Ask Passion Fruit what he thinks. He is bullish on real estate.

  13. Fast Eddie says:


    Thank you. Ok, so their necks are exposed. Does that mean it can permeate the skin? I guess my question is, and probably can’t be answered by anyone including the nurses; by what manner was it transmitted? I get the bodily fluid thing but was something on their hands and they wiped their eyes? Did fluid get on their neck and they touched their mouth? You see my point? They didn’t kiss the guy. They don’t claim to be splashed in the face so how did it go from one blood stream to another blood stream?

  14. Comrade Nom Deplume, a.k.a. Captain Justice says:

    More ebola idiocy. Check out the second video in this link.


    Hope that the guy without gear wasn’t a CDC worker.

  15. Juice Box says:

    All Red….. but but but unemployment claims are at an all time low!!!


  16. Comrade Nom Deplume, a.k.a. Captain Justice says:

    And now for something completely different . . .

    In honor of yet another Dallas Cowboy having been read his rights, I wanted to share a few Cowboy jokes I collected over the years.

    “The Cowboys will have a 12-4 record: 12 arrests, 4 convictions

    The Cowboys announced that they hired a new defensive coordinator: Johnny Cochran (yeah, he’s dead, I know, but its an old joke).

    What’s Jerry Jones’ biggest worry? That bail money counts against the salary cap!

    The Cowboys practice the Honor System: “Yes, your Honor. No, Your Honor.”

    What do you say to a Dallas Cowboy in a suit and tie? Will the defendant please rise?

    Why can’t Michael Irvin join the huddle? It’s a parole violation to associate with known felons.

    What to you call 47 criminals watching the Super Bowl on TV? The Dallas Cowboys.”

  17. Comrade Nom Deplume, a.k.a. Captain Justice says:

    [17] redux,

    And here’s just something I have noticed over the years.

    On nearly every episode of “Cops”, there’s at least one perp with a dirty Cowboys shirt on.

    And in nearly every “Cops” arrest scene, police sketch, or video of suspects, if there is a baseball cap on a suspect, it is almost always a New York Yankees cap.

    Market open in 10 minutes. Hold onto your butts, people.

  18. Juice Box says:

    All i want to know is if it was men’s or women’s?

    “Randle, 22, a backup tailback in his second season with the Cowboys, was accused of attempting to steal $80 worth of cologne and underwear from a Dillard’s Inc. store, according to a report from police in the Dallas suburb of Frisco.”

  19. The Original NJ ExPat says:

    [7] ’87C – That’s Passion Fruit in a nutshell.

    watching CNBC:

    “It ain’t what you don’t know that gets you into trouble. It’s what you know for sure that just ain’t so.”-

    Mark Twain

  20. jj says:

    I am putting a low ball bid in on DIA the ETF that buys the whole Dow 30. Maybe some panic sellingor mini flash crash but gotta be in it to win it.

  21. Comrade Nom Deplume, a.k.a. Captain Justice says:

    [1] juice,

    “All i want to know is if it was men’s or women’s?”

    Great. Coffee-soaked desk. Thanks a lot. ;)

    All for me, I have a long day.

  22. Fast Eddie says:


    All Red….. but but but unemployment claims are at an all time low!!!

    Isn’t the labor participation rate at an all-time low? Also, I’m reading more and more how salaries are flat for numerous reasons and will remain so indefinitely.

  23. FKA 2010 Buyer says:


    Shire deal threat flays hedge funds

    Some of the world’s largest hedge funds were left nursing heavy losses on Wednesday as US pharmaceuticals group AbbVie left its £32bn deal to acquire Dublin-based Shire teetering on the brink of collapse.

    Investors dumped shares in Shire after AbbVie’s board warned that it would convene next week to reconsider its deal to acquire Shire, in response to a White House crackdown on US companies’ use of overseas mergers to lower their tax payments. People close to the situation said the US group was likely to withdraw its offer.

    Shire shares suffered their steepest one-day decline in 12 years, falling 22 per cent to £40.12 and wiping out nearly all of their gains over the past four months.

    John Paulson, whose hedge fund Paulson & Co owns almost 5 per cent of Shire’s shares, was left sitting on paper losses of around £314m following the sell-off. Other large hedge fund holders include Magnetar Financial, Elliott Capital and Pentwater Capital.

    “This is probably the biggest single-name losing event in the history of event-driven strategies,” said one hedge fund portfolio manager.

  24. NJGator says:

    Nom 14 – If it is, maybe it’s the same dolt that told the 2nd Ebola nurse that she could fly. I don’t have a degree in public health or anything, but if there was a need to “watch” her, wouldn’t it have made sense to stay local? If Nancy Snyderman can’t go to Hopewell for soup, I don’t think anyone else should be flying across the country. SMH


  25. Fast Eddie says:

    Dem0crats have claimed that the Ebola crisis in the U.S. is a result of Republ1can budget cuts. What’s that line about using a disaster as an opportunity to target a foe?

  26. AG says:

    The cured physician donated blood to the Dallas nurse. It will be interesting to see the effect. You are crazy if you get on a plane right now. Drive instead.

    Do you want to trust your life or you families in the hands of a TSA moron? I can picture one of those TSA dirtbags on the can with a big Mac and fries exploding bloody diarrhea out of their _ss at 2000 feet per second.

  27. AG says:

    News Flash.

    If you can’t survive in the private sector you work for the gub. If you can’t hack the gub you go on the dole.

    Have you ever wondered why all the ugly women and idiots end up in DC? These are your classmates from elementary school who struggled in the 3rd grade. If they couldn’t handle the 3rd grade why would anyone expect them to handle an Ebola pandemic?

  28. FKA 2010 Buyer says:

    She said people pay a lot of money to live here. We love living in a bubble.

    Vandals Label Scottsdale Ebola Quarantine


  29. 1987 Condo says:

    Gotta love that 60 folks on that Cleveland flight were nurses….


  30. FKA 2010 Buyer says:

    $1 billion in subprime mortgage bonds just exchanged hands


    Another massive portfolio of subprime vintage non-agency debt hit the market on
    Wednesday, with investors gobbling up nearly all of the $1 billion in pre-bust bonds.

    According to bond analytics firm Interactive Data, a $998 million package of legacy debt from 2006 and 2007 came to market on Wednesday morning with nearly all of the bonds trading hands.

  31. 1987 Condo says:

    #32..sorry 13

  32. Libturd in the City says:

    AG…flying is fine. Much better chance of winning Megabucks than contracting Ebola.

  33. Ragnar says:

    Right, Greece, Italy, Japan, Argentina, New Jersey could have all been wonderfully economically successful if they had all run even bigger government deficits than they have.
    Remind me the name of that syndrome where people are so stupid that they cannot even recognize the depths of their stupidity?

  34. Ragnar says:

    Libturd, are you taking advantage of that fair bet thing that will match your first $1000?

  35. Ragnar says:

    The Sayerville football team could be sent in to manually plug the next case of Ebola exploding diarrhea.

  36. Libturd in the City says:

    What’s the catch Rags? Usually you have to play the money through 1,000 times before you can get it. Be very wary if you do it. Check the fine print. Let me know what the catch is once you find it.

  37. Fast Eddie says:

    Northern New Jersey’s housing market has continued to be mixed. Demand for single-family homes has remained sluggish…

    The inventory is horrible and asking prices are pure comedy.

  38. Libturd in the City says:

    How’s the renal market? I meant the rental market?

  39. Libturd in the City says:

    I’m waiting for closer to 20% off the S&P before I wet any of my dry powder. On the bright side of this drop, my NLY is doing exactly what it’s supposed to do. If I don’t get my 20%, no real harm nor foul as I haven’t sold anything either. I think it’s going to be a fine Christmas and bullsh1t earnings season is just the ticket we need to reverse this recent damage.

  40. grim says:

    Wife says that the veterinary hospitals are starting to get a little bit concerned because there is some possibility that dogs and cats can be asymptomatic carriers of the virus.

    Protocol in animal hospitals is a little bit less strict, because there are so few zoonotic pathogens. Those that are severe tend to be very very rare, and the common ones tend to be very benign (Ringworm for example). For example, blood or fluids exposure isn’t generally considered to be a major issue. Therefore, animal hospitals are thoroughly unprepared to handle this, and are unsure of how to even screen potential carriers.

  41. Libturd in the City says:

    If I was a vet, I would definitely refuse to treat Liberian Huskies.

  42. Pete says:

    Lib #39,

    Catch is bonus is dependent on wagering 30 times your initial deposit plus bonus. Meaning to get the $1000, you have to deposit $1000 and then wager $60,0000 to cash it. Seems like all the bonuses are like this and since there’s no full pay vp online and no comps to cash, its not worth it.

  43. Libturd in the City says:

    Exactamundo Rags. So far, only one online cas1no has closed down. Most are offering $10 or $20 to signup. Wait a year or two and the offers will become good. Too soon to give the house away.

    I’m headed down to AC tomorrow. Offering a free $700 true retail self-propelled snowblower (Troy built), which would make a nice compliment to my $750 Honda snow thrower (non-self propelled). Or I could sell it on Ebay or Craigslist. Also getting 45,000 gift points for their holiday giveaway and 5x points on my tier earned also towards the gift. Figure good for another $100 or so. I also have $100 of free food and have $1,200 in reward credits credits from my last 10X multiplier to be turned into $1,000 of free play, plus $125 in free play on a coupon and $200 in bounce back cash. I should not need to bring anything with me. Will play $2 9/6 JOB until I earn the required 4,000 tier to get the snowblower. $10 per hand at 1,000 hands per hour is $10,000 through. Should take me 4 hours to get my $40,000 through. My expected loss off $40,000 through is $160 with perfect strategy. Stop wasting your time and get your @ass to AC while the going is good. This is one of the most positive plays I’ve had since my 10X multiplier the last time I went down.

  44. The Original NJ ExPat says:

    LOL. I guess Guinea Pigs and West African Wolfhounds should be denied treatment as well.

    If I was a vet, I would definitely refuse to treat Liberian Huskies.

  45. Ragnar says:

    I’m not enticed by negative sum games. I wouldn’t even give online gaming organizations my email in return for a clean $1,000 check no strings attached. But I did see their desperate advertisement on Bloomberg TV this AM.

    Which reminds me, back in 1997 I did an online bet for the first and last time of my life. It was some London online financial betting company when these things were kind of new. It was some sort of complicated bet, a list of 10 stocks in Hong Kong, you’re supposed to pick 3 and estimate their next day % move, whoever gets closest wins the pot. I don’t remember the exact details. I don’t even remember whether I had to put any money down or maybe a token $20 on credit card. This was just as the Asian crisis was getting going. I chose 3 property developers and picked them all to go limit down 10%. Wham! Next day that’s what happened. I got a confirmation that I had won, with a request for wiring instructions. It was roughly $1,000, and it actually arrived, no strings attached. I never heard from them or visited their website again.

    Moral of the story: I only bet when I have an advantage.

  46. Libturd in the City says:

    Rags…spoken like a true advantage player.

  47. Comrade Nom Deplume, a.k.a. Captain Justice says:

    [46] juice

    Yeah, I’m not buying it.


  48. Ragnar says:

    46, 52,
    A Wall St. crash would make everything worse. But Main street hasn’t been that great to start with. Though national news outlets (ex-Fox) search for every bit of good economic news possible to support their home team in the upcoming elections. Consumer confidence has only recovered from historically bad to merely bad – the lowest “high” of any “recovery” in the history of that metric. When’s the last time you heard anyone in the media point this out? It might imply something about the leadership and policies of our blamer-in-chief.

    And NY Times has gone schizo, yearning for leftist policies so far left that only ivy league journalism and liberal arts majors can truly grasp, taking Derrida’s deconstructionism into the heart of that organization.

  49. NJGator says:

    And let the local panic ensue…

    NEW HAVEN, Conn. (CBSNewYork/AP) – A patient with Ebola-like symptoms is being treated at Yale-New Haven Hospital, the hospital said in a statement Thursday.
    The hospital said the patient was admitted late Wednesday night for an evaluation and said it has “not confirmed or ruled-out any diagnosis at this point.”

    “We are working in cooperation with city, state and federal health officials,” the hospital said.

    The patient, a Yale researcher, had recently returned from Liberia, one of three West African countries hit hardest by the disease, 1010 WINS’ Al Jones reported.
    A hazmat team also responded to the hospital and the patient was placed in isolation.


  50. Fast Eddie says:


    An ebola demo but it still doesn’t explain the theory on how it enters the body.


  51. 1987 Condo says:

    #56..I am starting to think they are uncertain ……

  52. jj says:

    keep africans in africa and problem is solved

  53. NJGator says:

    Sean G. Kaufman, who oversaw infection control at Emory University Hospital while it treated Dr. Kent Brantly and Nancy Writebol, the first two American Ebola patients, called the earlier C.D.C. guidelines “absolutely irresponsible and dead wrong.”


  54. 1987 Condo says:

    Well, after reading that, seems like it is pretty easy to catch………..

  55. phoenix says:

    Yale-New Haven Hospital has patient with Ebola-like symptoms.

    In other news, ISIS is sending jihadists to Liberia

  56. grim says:

    61 – Now that’s creative.

  57. Libturd in the City says:

    I just took a rock solid dump after eating buffalo wings for dinner last night. I suppose I am OK.

  58. Libturd in the City says:

    I feel bad for librarians and libertarians.

  59. NJGator says:

    61 – The 72 virgins don’t mind the projectile vomit or explosive diarrhea?

  60. Libturd in the City (channeling JJ) says:

    “The 72 virgins don’t mind the projectile vomit or explosive diarrhea”

    Judging by some pronography I have unfortunately witnessed, they might prefer it. Plus, the men can use their turbans to clean up afterwards. And I’m sure the berka offers a modest level of protection for the virgins, assuming they are female.

  61. Libturd in the City says:

    Another nice quarter for privatized healthcare (UNH). Thank you Obama.

  62. joyce says:

    Lenoir City woman sent to jail for having a messy yard

    “On Tuesday, Holloway made a final appeal before Judge Vann, who reduced her sentence to six hours (from the initial ruling of 5 days). But he admitted she’s not a criminal, and says this isn’t a criminal case.

    Holloway offered to do five days of community service instead of the jail time. But Vann refused, insisting she serve time.

    Judge Vann set a follow up hearing for November to check up on the progress. He suggested he might add on more jail time if the city isn’t satisfied with the clean-up.”

  63. joyce says:

    So now we’re admitting we not only fine but jail people for non-criminal offenses? This isn’t what we call victimless crimes; the ass-hat judge openly says it’s not criminal.

  64. A Home Buyer says:

    69 – Joyce

    Maybe Debtor’s Prisons are next?

  65. Not Fast Eddie says:

    Slow Eddie, the issue is the viral loads in Ebola is in the millions vs thousands in Aids in any given sample. It gets to the millions because it stops interferon, which is equivalent to a burglar having the code to the house burglar alarm. So your body does not mount a response until is to late, that is the 21 day incubation period before fever, which is your body’s alarm system is set off. It is those 21+/- days that allows the virus to have such high viral loads.

    Therefore any patch of skin with any issue like dryness, paper cut, millimeter size cut is a problem.

  66. 1987 Condo says:

    #71..we are told that you can not catch Ebola like the flu….but what makes this different if I am sitting next to someone on an airplane and they sneeze or even vomit next to me…??

  67. chicagofinance says:

    Fast…..I think this one is more comprehensive…..

    Fast Eddie says:
    October 16, 2014 at 12:25 pm
    Gator, An ebola demo but it still doesn’t explain the theory on how it enters the body.


  68. Not Fast Eddie says:

    If they have it and they do that you are SOL if it touches any open skin, eyes, nose, mouth.

  69. Libturd in the City says:

    If an Ebola vaccine is found, I wonder if the hippy dippys will shunt it like they do all other vaccines?

  70. Ragnar says:

    This video from South Park has funnier bathroom humor:

  71. Ragnar says:

    I wouldn’t currently take an Ebola vaccine given current probabilities of catching it, versus the likelihood of side effects. I would if I was in the National Guard being sent to Liberia to “battle” Ebola. Or possibly flee for Canada.

  72. grim says:

    Suspect we may make more headway if we begin treating Ebola patients like zombies, which isn’t so far fetched given the mortality rate.

  73. Libturd in the City says:

    Perhaps, rather than dress the nurses and doctors in protective gear, we should put the infected patients in a sealed bubble and then use Silkwood type sleeves to aid them.

  74. Not Fast Eddie says:

    Ragnar and other Ayn Rand underwear lovers for you

    Ebola video NY Times link – is great


  75. 1987 Condo says:

    #74..I’m sorry but guy on CNBC says Ebola is not an “airborne transferal”…..

  76. Ron Jermany says:


    Re: 68: should have trimmed her bush, eh?

  77. Bystander says:

    Time to re-read Camus’ The Plague. I think this is what Clot refers to as light reading ;>)

  78. NJGator says:

    82 – Are we putting all our faith in “guy on CNBC”. Sure hope it’s not Cramer.

  79. jj says:

    Sometimes a large bush can hide an ugly front door

    Ron Jermany says:

    October 16, 2014 at 3:42 pm


    Re: 68: should have trimmed her bush, eh?

  80. Fast Eddie says:

    This ebola thing is an obvious plot by the right wing to hijack the efforts of the compassionate dem0crats who want to help hard-working middle class families. And the audacity of the republ1cans to hatch this plan on the eve of an important election. First it was dirty air and water, then tax cuts for the rich, followed by the war on women and now this!

  81. 1987 Condo says:

    I thought “guy on CNBC” was self explanatory!

  82. grim says:

    Sorry, but a mass protest in the middle of an ebola outbreak is a pretty f*cking dumb thing to take part in.

  83. The Original NJ ExPat says:

    Obama will want to set up an Ebola exchange where you can buy Ebola credits to become Ebola neutral.

  84. NJGator says:

    I guess those cheap fares come at a price. Did she not walk on and off the plane…and maybe to the bathroom while on board?

    “Frontier Airlines says it will remove the seat covers and carpets in the immediate vicinity of the passenger seat that Dallas nurse Amber Vinson occupied on a flight from Cleveland to Dallas the evening before she tested positive for Ebola.”


  85. Essex says:

    87. You seem to think the GOP is capable of planning and implementing anything.

  86. Fabius Maximus says:

    #93 Essex

    I’m sure they’ll have a prayer breakfast on C Street to work out who G0d is being vengeful to.

  87. Fabius Maximus says:

    Never saw this coming.

    Fracking Poisons California’s Water
    Nearly 3 billion gallons (or the equivalent of 454 Olympic swimming pools) of oil industry wastewater were illegally dumped into central California’s aquifer supplying drinking water and irrigation to farmers.

  88. Fabius Maximus says:

    The funny part about this would be the fact that the fine is less than half the one day loss they suffered when they were caught on the wrong side of a trade.


  89. grim says:

    Nuclear on the back of a truck? How long until NJ democrats try to pass a law making the driving of that truck through NJ illegal?

  90. Fabius Maximus says:

    #98 grim

    If they can’t legislate for rail cars carrying tar sands, what chance is there for legislation for an LM truck.


  91. Libturd at home says:

    Fab Max…that fracking article is garbage. Also, that fusion reactor, something I studied in detail in college fuses deuterium-tritium fuel. Radioactive waste is not exactly green in my book. Especially when our wonderful leaders still can’t figure what the F to do with it.

  92. Comrade Nom Deplume, Guardian of the Realm says:

    [87] Eddie

    There are Democrats that are blaming the Republicans for the outbreak.

    It reminds me of some of the blame that was heaped on George Bush for Katrina. Not the response to Katrina, rather they blamed him for the hurricane itself.

  93. Comrade Nom Deplume, Guardian of the Realm says:

    Real nailbiter up in Foxboro tonight. I am happy that we were able to put the Jets at one and six, but I am a bit dismayed that we couldn’t put them away early.

Comments are closed.