Bubble chant continues to grow louder

From HousingWire:

Bubble, bubble? Number of overvalued markets doubles since first quarter

A new report from CoreLogic (CLGX) identifies 14 of the top 100 markets in the U.S. as currently overvalued, double the number as of the end of the first quarter 2015.

CoreLogic’s Market Condition Indicators says that Texas has the largest number of overvalued markets, with five of its six top markets identified as overvalued. The Market Condition Indicators evaluate whether individual markets are undervalued, at value, or overvalued based on the market’s real disposable income per capita.

“Since last year, geopolitical events have shifted in favor of excess oil supply, possibly exerting further downward pressure on oil prices in the next few years and impacting some of these Texas markets. The areas that have become overvalued since last quarter are: Cape Coral, Fla., two Tennessee markets, Knoxville and Nashville – Davidson – Murfreesboro – Franklin, philadelphia, Silver Spring–Frederick–rockville metro in Maryland and Denver–aurora–Lakewood in Colorado. as home prices have risen significantly since 2013, homes have become less affordable, and therefore, home prices less sustainable,” the reports says.

During the bubble years of 2005 through 2007, home prices were more than 10% above the long-run sustainable levels. During the market collapse, home prices quickly fell more than 10% below the sustainable price during late 2010 and early 2013. Subsequently, as home prices have continued to rise, the gap has narrowed to 3.6% below the long-run sustainable level in June 2015 and is expected to remain within the normal range through the end of 2017, with the gap forecasted to shrink further to 1.5%.

This entry was posted in Demographics, Economics, Employment, Housing Bubble, National Real Estate. Bookmark the permalink.

42 Responses to Bubble chant continues to grow louder

  1. grim says:

    Interesting, Philly Metro now in the bubble list.

  2. Comrade Nom Deplume, not enjoying Labor(ing) Day says:

    Article on Bloomberg today about the hot housing market–in Mumbai

  3. D-FENS says:

    I still see people losing their jobs and abandoning their homes that were hanging on from the last bubble. There’s a new bubble?

  4. Bklynhawk says:

    Saw this and had to share, would love to hear comments (or guesses on who sent in those checks) from Comrade Nom Deplume and others…

    IRS No Longer Accepting $100M Checks

    CNN) – Starting next year, the IRS will no longer accept checks exceeding a hundred million dollars.


  5. D-FENS says:

    Price Tag of Bernie Sanders’s Proposals: $18 Trillion
    Democratic presidential candidate’s agenda would greatly expand government


  6. D-FENS says:

    Buying votes is expensive these days I guess.

  7. Ottoman says:

    You mean the same Wall Street Journal that’s owned by Fox News? Of course the “blistering” headline neglects to mention all the savings to the private sector and their employees (and the self insured) for getting out of the health insurance business.

    Bet you think every time a corporation squirrels away another $1 billion in the Caymans more Americans get jobs and opportunities , too.

    Get your gubmint out of my Medicare!!!!!

    D-FENS says:
    September 15, 2015 at 8:13 am
    Price Tag of Bernie Sanders’s Proposals: $18 Trillion
    Democratic presidential candidate’s agenda would greatly expand government


  8. 1987 Condo says:

    For those inflation folks on the board:

    PSE&G says customers can expect another drop in natural-gas bill

    The decline in natural gas prices will continue benefiting customers of Public Service Electric & Gas, who can expect another 5.8-percent drop in their home-heating bills this winter, the company announced Monday.

    The reduction, approved last week by the state Board of Public Utilities, will lower the typical residential customer’s monthly winter bill by about $9, from $149 to $140, the Newark-based company said. PSE&G distributes natural gas throughout Bergen and Passaic counties.

    Since 2009, the average annual heating bill for PSE&G customers has dropped $792, largely the result of increased supplied resulting from underground natural-gas discoveries in Pennsylvania. Under state regulations, utilities earn no profit on the cost of natural gas, which makes up about half of customers’ hearing bills. Profit is earned on the distribution of the gas.


  9. 1987 Condo says:

    Not that there isn’t inflation in my budget, my kids college tuition/fees go up $1,500 a year…each year..for 8 years…..

  10. chicagofinance says:

    Art Gallery (jj Edition):

    A Lower East Side photo exhibit that has been set up as a fake massage parlor is attracting far more than art lovers — drawing flocks of h0rny guys who think it’s a real rub-and-tug joint.

    The front door of the Shin Gallery at 66 Orchard St. is covered with signs touting 10-minute “foot rubs’’ for $8 and 30-minute “body rubs’’ for $24 — cheap even by seedy parlor standards.

    Young Asian women in tight pants and high heels can be seen some days through the front window, lounging in a reception area adorned with fake pink and red flowers and chipped pink floor tiles.

    But this “massage parlor’’ is actually an art installation featuring the work of Japanese erotic photographer Nobuyoshi Araki and Viennese artist Rudolf Schwartzkogler, known for his gruesome, sex-fueled depictions.

    The ruse has drawn a stream of middle-aged tourists and college students seeking some stimulation — and not the visual kind.

    “We get at least 20 visitors a day. They’re all guys looking for a happy ending,” gallery assistant Sarah Malmude chuckled.

    “They come in. We give them a brochure and say, ‘This is a gallery,’ ” explained Malmude, who keeps in character as a parlor receptionist by dressing in stiletto heels and leopard-print tights.

    Some visitors “laugh and enjoy the show,” she said.

    Others are just embarrassed.

    “There was a group of college students who spent the whole time looking at the floor,’’ Malmude said.

    Gallery owner Hong Gyu Shin, 25, said he’s seen older men walk in and “say, ‘Oh, cool,’ and just act like nothing happened.“They just look around and pretend they’re innocent, and then they leave. It’s so funny.’’

    The exhibit also features three fake rubdown rooms with black massage tables and a break area with a half-eaten bowl of microwaveable noodles on the table and a drying rack with lace underwear hung over it.

    A construction worker repairing a gas main on Orchard Street walked in Monday and claimed not to be disappointed when he learned it was just an art exhibit — because he likes photography.
    “I’m on my feet all day, so I’m big on foot massages,” said Brian, who wouldn’t give his last name. “I’m just looking for a massage.”

    A young couple stopped by a few minutes later also claiming to want just a foot massage.

    Malmude said even real massage-parlor workers from the neighborhood have been duped.

    “They walk by and shake their heads. They think the price is too low,” she said.

  11. grim says:

    Why on earth is the state on NJ even involved in lottery. What realistic purpose does t serve to have a monopoly on this kind of gambling.

    Shut it all down.


  12. Juice Box says:

    Grim they are gearing up for another hit piece. NJ Lottery has the highest profit margins of any in the country, it brings in nearly a billion a year to the state budget.

    Wolf & Samson,Northstar New Jersey, GTECH etc. get ready for it it is coming, there was only one bidder for the contract.

  13. grim says:

    Christie’s push benefited some key political allies. During its ultimately successful pursuit of the state’s business, Northstar New Jersey hired the communications firm of Christie campaign strategist Mike DuHaime. The law and lobbying firm of former Port Authority chairman David Samson received $460,000 for lobbying on behalf of Northstar between 2012 and the end of last year.

  14. grim says:

    Samson was a busy man

  15. leftwing says:

    “the “blistering” headline neglects to mention all the savings to the private sector and their employees (and the self insured) for getting out of the health insurance business”

    Yeah, Otto, you nailed it. Bernie’s proposals are net a huge positive for the private sector. Which is why they are all lining up behind him, lol.

    About time, a post with a good dose of liberal arrogance was long overdue.

    **We will do all your thinking for you and tell you what is good for you**

  16. leftwing says:

    And…although I haven’t read his proposal, CBS today reported the same $18T number and said he would pay for it with $6.5T of new tax hikes.

    Need to brush off my liberal algebra books but appears to me that leaves a c. $12T hole to be filled by deficit spending? Or is there magic dust filling the difference (otherwise known as CRS/GAO static revenue analysis)?

  17. phoenix says:

    Time to get the writers from Boardwalk Empire to start a new series. The story line is all there……

  18. Comrade Nom Deplume, the Answer says:

    [15] lefty

    Be kind. Otto just wants a job consistent with his values.


  19. Comrade Nom Deplume, the Answer says:

    [8] condo

    I’ve changed my mind. I now support extraction taxes on nat gas piped out of state.

  20. 1987 Condo says:

    #19..don’t worry, someone said we are at peak NG so this will end soon

  21. Anon E. Moose says:

    Grim [11];

    It was said of the (NY) lottery that if it wasn’t run by the state, Elliot Spitzer would have shut it down years ago. (This was before his escort imbroglio). The lottery takes 50% of ticket sales off the top. That’s a huge vig! Its more than any private c@sino slot machine or table game, p0ker table (always less than 10%), or any parimutuel race track.

    If I had to guess, the lottery is failing because, in their quest for bigger and bigger headline prize numbers, they are making it harder and harder to win smaller prizes (they can’t/won’t, of course, reduce their take to fund bigger prizes). Players need the feedback of frequent smaller wins to bolster their endurance to keep playing for the big hit. Just ask the slot machine people at IGT — a player who puts a $20 or $100 bill into a machine will run through 5-10 times that amount in bets made before tapping out. They get some of it back in wins, then feed it in again.

    If TV ad spending is any indication, fantasy sports are going gang busters (and taking a 10% vig of all dollars bet), and is probably beginning to draw casual gambling revenue from lottery. Its only legal due to an exception the leagues bought and paid for in the UIGEA, which effectively shut down offshore internet poker in this country almost a decade ago.

    The bottom line is the state-run lottery is a worse bet for the player then just about any other. Were it not for the state-imposed monopoly, it would not be nearly so prevalent.

  22. Juice Box says:

    re: “the lottery is failing” – I think their expenses only went up about 20 million.
    It went from 34 cents per dollar VIG to 30 cents on expenses and it is failing? It sill pulls in a Billion a year on 3 Billion in sales, get ready for the HIT pieces…..

  23. yome says:

    House plans Vote on Oil Export

  24. leftwing says:

    Rarely if ever play the lottery, only when it is a number too big to ignore, $200m or so.

    Guess they changed Powerball recently? Used to be a buck, now it is two per pick? Dropping ten bucks for a one in 26m chance every so often at life changing cash as a what the he11 move was OK.

    Two bucks a shot per number with worse odds, eh.

    I think they just priced out the casual user who would flip some money at it. Probably also saw declines from the hardcore user that thinks his chances are much better with twice the amount of numbers at mega v. powerball.

  25. Comrade Nom Deplume, the Answer says:

    [24] leftwing

    The office has a powerball pool for big jackpots and I join in. It’s as much about being sociable as it is playing the lottery. Otherwise, I call it the “stupid tax.”

  26. Comrade Nom Deplume, the Answer says:

    [25] redux,

    Along with gas taxes and their share of bridge tolls on the Commodore Barry, that is the only money NJ sees from me due to employment.

  27. The Great Pumpkin says:

    11- Rags, private does it better, right? All hail the mighty private sector, because it’s that much different from the public sector.

    “Illinois, which privatized its lottery in 2011, tried to cancel a deal with a Northstar affiliate last year following contract disputes and perennial underperformance. Indiana, which hired an underperforming GTECH subsidiary in 2012, renegotiated the contract in June to reduce the lottery’s future targeted profits for the state.”

  28. The Great Pumpkin says:

    “The documents showed the lottery struggling with higher expenses. Before hiring Northstar, New Jersey’s lottery enjoyed unmatched efficiency compared to other states, keeping 34 cents in profit from every $1 in ticket sales. Under Northstar, expenses rose, sending profit margins down to 30 cents on the dollar for the 2015 fiscal year’s $3 billion in revenue. Even continued sales growth won’t guarantee that the state will hit the contractually set profit targets.”

  29. Comrade Nom Deplume, the Answer says:

    It’s always refreshing when the liberal leaders speak truthfully about their motivations:

    “”I have a lot of envy,” said Rep. Joe Crowley, D-N.Y. “I don’t know if I have sympathy for someone who’s required to pay that kind of taxes.”

    Rep. Chris Van Hollen, D-Md., said he wishes he made enough money to pay $100 million in taxes.”

    As we know, the liberal revulsion toward wealth isn’t that there is such a thing as wealth, its that they have less of it than others. At least Crowley and Van Hollen admit, in their own way, it is about envy; Otto and anon haven’t yet, and therein lies their deceit.

  30. The Great Pumpkin says:

    How do expenses rise when it is switched from public to private? I thought everything public was more expensive according to some?

  31. leftwing says:

    Punkin 28/30:

    “Rags, private does it better, right? All hail the mighty private sector, because it’s that much different from the public sector.”

    No one said they always do it better (although they generally do). It’s about accountability. As Illinois shows – and NJ may if they clip Northstar for the $120m deposit – underperformance in the private sector has more ramifications than in the public sector. You can actually get fired or penalized monetarily.

  32. leftwing says:


    Crowley needs some counseling. Envy is among the more self destructive emotions.

  33. Juice Box says:

    re # 30 – Lobbying, lawyers etc.. cost money to continue to bribe the politicians.

  34. Comrade Nom Deplume, Device-Hopping Today says:

    If anyone is wondering why we haven’t heard from the Twidiot concerning the latest “school” shooting, perhaps its because the shooter (presumably) wasn’t a conservative:


    Just a guess.

  35. Ragnar says:

    Just your typical Dr. of Social Sciences specializing in “High Stakes Testing” who couldn’t handle his girlfriend cheating on him, so decided to kill all 3 of the parties involved. Though looking at photos of his unfortunate late girlfriend, I wouldn’t have considered the stakes to be that high.

  36. Comrade Nom Deplume, the Answer says:

    Joyce and Otto don’t know whether to cheer or not.


    The now-deceased dirtbag, who will probably be eulogized by Rev. Al, was from Florrissant, MO, right next to Ferguson. I’m not going to fish for a motive here.

  37. Comrade Nom Deplume, celebrating first day of school says:

    This needs to be shouted from every rooftop. And I know it won’t play well in NYC


  38. phoenix says:

    Mmm. Tasty. Nice to know what happens when we get our food from places with no standards……

  39. Comrade Nom Deplume, celebrating first day of school says:

    [39] Phoenix

    A lot of our domestically raised seafood grew up eating crap.

  40. NJT says:

    A company I worked at back in the 80s had a ‘payday lottery’ (We wrote our paycheck number on a small piece of paper, wrapped a dollar bill around it, put it in a big green hat then passed it on. Around three hundred plus people participated every week).

    I won, twice (worked there two years).

    *Rule – If a winner you were required to buy drinks for any that showed up at the local
    pub after work and…you could not leave until after they did.

    Went home with about 1/2 the winnings.

    *A-hole controller closed it down. Funny, guy is now in prison for fraud.

  41. Anderson says:

    WONDERFUL Post.thanks for share..extra wait .. …

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