From the Record:
NJ home construction running 17% below last year’s pace
After a dramatic, four-year rebound from the worst housing downturn in generations, home construction in New Jersey has fallen back this year, running about 17 percent behind 2015’s pace.
Through June, according to the U.S. census, builders got the approval to start 13,681 housing units in the Garden State, down from 16,617 in the same period in 2015. Multifamily construction continued to dominate the market, as it has for most of the housing recovery, accounting for 64 percent of the building permits in the state.
The drop in construction activity may reflect the difficulty of finding new land to develop, after several years of accelerating construction activity.
“There aren’t as many opportunities as there were three or four years ago,” said George Capodagli, owner of Capodagli Construction Co./Meridia in Linden, which is constructing a 115-unit apartment building in downtown Hackensack’s redevelopment zone. Capodagli has been involved in redevelopment projects in Linden, Bound Brook and Rahway, generally seeking walkable, urban sites with transit access to New York City.
“You have to get creative to find sites where you can build multifamily, and towns that are willing to hear you out and be open-minded about multifamily buildings,” said Adam Pasternack, a senior vice president at Russo Development of Carlstadt. Russo is getting ready to start construction on a 110-unit apartment building on the site of a former lumber yard next to the Waldwick commuter train station. Since North Jersey is already largely developed, builders must usually seek out redevelopment sites.
…
So far this year, northeastern New Jersey has led the way in home construction, especially in multifamily rentals along the Hudson River in Bergen and Hudson counties. Developers are betting on high demand as households are priced out of Manhattan and Brooklyn.
…
Jersey City has approved the largest number of housing units of any municipality in the state, as developers transform older neighborhoods with sleek new high-rises. Fort Lee is ranked second in the state, as the redevelopment of a 16-acre parcel next to the George Washington Bridge is bringing hundreds of new apartments to town in two developments — the Modern, which consists of two apartment high-rises, and a mixed-use project called Hudson Lights.Ocean County is also experiencing a building boom, according to the New Jersey Department of Labor, which studies home construction patterns. Unlike in the northern part of the state, single-family homes dominate in Ocean.
Good Morning New Jersey
I’ve been thinking of forming The Charlotte Corday Society.
I figure clot would be game
Always a good idea to be handy around the guillotine.
Cause there’s no do-overs with a guillotine.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-08-02/why-white-collar-crime-is-here-to-stay
The North Jersey market appears to be weakening. Properties I am marketing that had strong comparable sales are not selling at or above comps from 6 to 18 months ago. Seeing this pattern throughout the entire area including once strong markets like Edgewater. The exception to this trend are homes in the bottom half of the price structure of desirable towns.
Corelogic HPI out this morning supports that.
NJ statewide down 0.8% yoy with NY metro MSA at 3.5% yoy – likely strongly driven by high price/high demand markets.
30 yr,
Looking at many former coworkers Linkedin pages and it is still a sh!tshow in banking. 9 months, 1 year then job change particularly with Euro banks. Many can barely keep a FT job, seems like 2 years is max.
I said it before somewhere here. Not in RE now, but was back then. What everyone is seeing is the post boom echo bubble. Saw this exact thing in 91-94 after the ’89 bubble popped. After ’94 quiet and still like a lake till the ’00.
I do not share Pumkins RE hype. Whoever wins the elceltion, is not good.
Trump – > expect his dislike of Wall Street/0% Fed Reserve, dislike of 1031 exchange rules, Wall Street capital gains gimmicks, H1B, Free Trade deals and hunting down of illegal immigration + love of gold to affect speculative economic rent seeking investments to open up a lot different types of real estate for sale.
Clinton – > her gimmicks is to continue the pretend game and blow another bubble, but there is no air left in the lungs to blow. Plus the built up historical animus against the Clinton from both left and right will stop anything she attempts.
I still feel there is strong baby boomer exit taking place right now. guys I talk to at work are selling below market just to get out (bergen county). Even throwing in repairs, $ towards closing. They have pension, 401k, what they don’t have is time. I hear the often whats $75k, if I have to wait 12 months to sell.
One thing I noticed is that more and more big $hit ego types who don’t treat team members particularly well are being shown the door. Right now, people who produce and work well with other members are staying longer. Makes sense with all transition, outsourcing and consolidation across banking. Totally opposite personalities worked when front office growth and product offerings drove it all.
Capitulation sellers are idiots. Taking sub-market prices and transferring that to overpriced retiree markets. Screwed on both sides of the transaction
My morning so far has been made up of having to explain myself to investors for being off on projected sale prices of assets acquired at sheriff sales. Mind you these are properties purchased based on exterior valuations with projected repair budgets based on limited information. The most I have been off target on any of these acquisitions is about 3 to 4%.
If I buy it today it is based on comps from the last 12 months and it will take almost a year until today’s purchase hits the market. I cannot spot trends that develop between the time that the comps sold and my acquisition hits the market. I have sent my crystal ball out for repairs.
Besides prohibiting the asking for salary upfront, what is really different? And the “unless they voluntarily disclose” thing is funny, isn’t that exactly how it is today? They pressure you to do this even though it’s not required. Also, maybe I’m naive but a current or previous employer won’t confirm your compensation will they so what’s to stop you from lying?
The Original NJ ExPat says:
August 2, 2016 at 1:59 am
http://thinkprogress.org/economy/2016/08/01/3803836/massachusetts-equal-pay/
The law takes a step that is completely unique: it prohibits employers from asking prospective hires about their salary histories until after they make a job offer that includes compensation, unless the applicants voluntarily disclose the information. No other state has such a ban in place.
Guillotine?
Good riddance Tahji (Montclair resident).
http://the-mugshot.website/mugshot/NJ/Essex-County-Jail/2015-Jun-07/8465302/TAHJI-HALE
#12 – Got to love all the people who accept “below market” prices for their house. I believe it would be more appropriate to state that as “below expectation”. The market sets the price. If the reason your home was better and more valuable than the comparable sales is because it was yours, you are WRONG! You are listening to the grumblings of the uninformed and biased. More than likely they received market value and didn’t like it.
30 year maybe you are right. But an acre in the Franklin Lakes Wyckoff area for under $500 with 30k in repair $ thrown in. Plus whatever he looses on RE fees. Had I known I would have taken it for $450 without any repairs and rented the place. Like I said time is not on your side at a certain age, and he wanted the place sold in under 4 weeks. His retirement home was purchased many decades ago.
19, that part of NNJ is taking it on the chin. The non-train towns aren’t generating good offers. Ridgewood has junk selling at high prices while Franklin Lakes, Wycoff, Wayne, et al you can buy a lot of house for your money still.
NNJ is so vast,
Pockets on the hill.
To make your life,
Do not think twice.
Bout plunking down a mil.
clot trying to make it back to TN
http://www.nydailynews.com/news/crime/pilot-tackles-drunk-passenger-assaulted-crew-article-1.2734936
I met an old fellow from Bergen.
His wife was a 90 year old virgin.
When asked as to why.
He started to cry.
The house keeps him constantly workin’.
grim – Some people don’t have enough years left to wait to get out from under their $15,000 tax bill. Where did the sellers of your home move to?
Capitulation sellers are idiots. Taking sub-market prices and transferring that to overpriced retiree markets. Screwed on both sides of the transaction
Ex pat – moved to South Carolina. I’ve noticed a shift recently from what used to be North Carolina. I’m waiting for the day developers start marketing Appalachia.
Moonshine Estates anyone?
College PC police running amok…
A University of Houston student who was vice president of the school’s SGA was suspended from her position for 55 days among other penalties for posting on her FB page “forget black lives matter, all lives matter.”
25, already happening. My wife’s uncle just built a massive home home in SC, 45 minutes outside of Ashville.
Libturd Yeats says:
August 2, 2016 at 12:39 pm
I met an old fellow from Bergen.
His wife was a 90 year old virgin.
When asked as to why.
He started to cry.
The house keeps him constantly workin’.
http://nypost.com/2016/08/02/balkan-countrys-last-sworn-virgin-dies-in-her-80s/
Overleveraged coworker who is nearly 70 told me today he wants to retire down in North Carolina. He says to get what he wants (sale price) he needs to get a mortgage on his new house down south so he has to keep working. Says only then can he sell his home in Montclair and get his full maket price whatever that is.
I told him it is been a while since the last recession and the next could be around the corner and you might be dead before you get your full market price. :(
Ugh..”leveraged” at 70 is brutal, “over-leveraged”…yikes!
re# 30 – Does not look 70 at least although he is starting to hike his pants up higher and higher.
co worker was not over leveraged. He is getting out with a 2 year severance, RSUs, options and a couple of pensions . The $50k to $75k he could get waiting a year for a buyer was not worth it to him. And as mentioned he would loose $ in property taxes.
There was a young man from Winsocken…
An Essex mansion he snares,
Complete with two sets of stairs,
But now fraught with bills,
He still lives in Short Hills,
Now caught by his very short hairs
I once was involved in a three-way.
A daughter and mom gave me leeway.
I’m such a bad man.
That I battered their cans.
And the house was right on the freeway.
My take. North Jersey is hitting heavy demographic headwinds which was expected. Prices will probably remain mostly flat on the avg overall (some locations might even drop a few percentage pts, some prime locations will continue to rise at a slow pace). In 2019-2020 real estate should start moving up through most of that decade before it hits its next bust cycle late 2020’s. This is all based on the baby boomers selling (static or drop in price) in the next 2-3 years and then the next massive customer base (millennials) will take control of spending in the economy and drive real estate to new record levels. What this all means, boomers will create an oversupply of sellers holding prices in place or lowering them, followed by an enormous group of buyers that will drive up prices to levels never seen before.
A lot of you are older, you have seen this rodeo before.
30 year realtor s ays:
August 2, 2016 at 8:51 am
The North Jersey market appears to be weakening. Properties I am marketing that had strong comparable sales are not selling at or above comps from 6 to 18 months ago. Seeing this pattern throughout the entire area including once strong markets like Edgewater. The exception to this trend are homes in the bottom half of the price structure of desirable towns.
Man, creating another florida and we aren’t talking about coastal florida. The original locals would be smart to sell into this wave of buyers before it comes crashing down on their way of life.
walking bye says:
August 2, 2016 at 12:59 pm
Ex pat – moved to South Carolina. I’ve noticed a shift recently from what used to be North Carolina. I’m waiting for the day developers start marketing Appalachia.
Moonshine Estates anyone?
Agreed. It’s why I bought in Wayne. You get so much more for your money and the location is great. 287 is going to be the barrier. If you want to make money in real estate in the next 10-15 years, you have a much better chance of making money if you buy in the towns listed below as opposed to the Ridgewoods. Those towns had their major gains already, they will still go up, but just not as much as the towns that didn’t see their major gains yet and are in commutable distance to the city.
jcer says:
August 2, 2016 at 11:53 am
19, that part of NNJ is taking it on the chin. The non-train towns aren’t generating good offers. Ridgewood has junk selling at high prices while Franklin Lakes, Wycoff, Wayne, et al you can buy a lot of house for your money still.
36 37 38 I will go with 30 years analysis. These last few posts of yours are just ramblings on your part. Oh and just as an aside. I know two people who commute to Manhattan from Wayne. They say the commute stinks. Just saying.
Ramblings? Don’t underestimate the information you can apply to economics based on demographics and cyclical patterns. Don’t act like I’m some local drunk spewing out garbage. Anyone that has followed my posts on this topic knows that I have been on point.
3b says:
August 2, 2016 at 8:48 pm
36 37 38 I will go with 30 years analysis. These last few posts of yours are just ramblings on your part. Oh and just as an aside. I know two people who commute to Manhattan from Wayne. They say the commute stinks. Just saying.
40- That commute to NYC will be that much better when they clear up the rt3/46 bottleneck. Prepared for real estate values in towns like Wayne to go up with the completion of that project.
Wayne to NYC isn’t a bad trip – bus is faster than train. I thought the trip from 23 through hoboken/ferry to wfc was decent though.
40 on point with what? Everybody knows oh yes they know indeed. But not that you are on point.Demographics and cyclical patterns just more gobbly gook on your part. As I have said your whole rationale is based on the fact that you own real estate nothing more. As I said I would pay attention to what 30 year is saying. Far more credible and unbiased than your silly ramblings.
Lib – “battered their cans” is the best double entendre ever! Both meanings are dirty!! I added a verse.
So the house on the freeway was sold,
To a not too bright guy I am told.
So he dreams of inflation,
To relieve him his station,
While his taxes rape him fourfold.
I once was involved in a three-way.
A daughter and mom gave me leeway.
I’m such a bad man.
That I battered their cans.
And the house was right on the freeway.
42 I did not think it was bad either. Train better than bus in my opinion. But 2 people I know who live in Wayne say tbe commute is a pain. Which of course is just an opinion I was just using it as an example in my comment to pumps.
Let the verse flow through you….
ExPat,
Excellent.
I don’t think Plumpy realizes it’s an homage to him.
You are no different than the individuals who ridiculed me back in 2003 for stating that they should not buy. I was 23, they didn’t take me serious. Laughed their a$$ off at my expense, claiming that everyone knows real estate doesn’t go down. They had to learn the hard way, didn’t want to listen to the guy stating that these gains were not sustainable.
3b says:
August 2, 2016 at 9:32 pm
40 on point with what? Everybody knows oh yes they know indeed. But not that you are on point.Demographics and cyclical patterns just more gobbly gook on your part. As I have said your whole rationale is based on the fact that you own real estate nothing more. As I said I would pay attention to what 30 year is saying. Far more credible and unbiased than your silly ramblings.
Wayne is great and commuting-friendly place to live if your business is running illegal operations in Paterson. Just ask anyone who lives on Urban Club Rd.
49- Pt being, you totally blew off demographics and cyclical patterns as bs. I assure you, they provide valuable information. There is reason why there is always a boom, and always a bust. Understand what demographics is telling you.
49 doofus what exactly is your point! That you and only you knew back in 2003 was saying that? Many others myself included said the same thing. Now you propose you are right and yet interestingly enough you predictions are different now that you own vs when you did not own.
http://www.bloomberg.com/features/2016-vancouver-real-estate-market/
51 no I didn’t. I just don’t want to get into it with you. You just throw that out there because you think it sounds good.
I bought in 1999. If it wasn’t such a lucrative income producing property, I would have sold it in that run up for 600,000. I was tempted, but slow and steady is the better route…..you don’t get rid of good income producers.
3b says:
August 2, 2016 at 9:56 pm
49 doofus what exactly is your point! That you and only you knew back in 2003 was saying that? Many others myself included said the same thing. Now you propose you are right and yet interestingly enough you predictions are different now that you own vs when you did not own.
The Great Pump == Two inches of fleeting, flawed, and faulty logic. He’ll be here all week folks!
…and next week, and the week after that, and the week after that…
The Great Pumpkin says:
August 2, 2016 at 9:48 pm
You are no different than the individuals who ridiculed me
back in 2003every day of my life so far.Superfast SSD Cloud hosting your FREE month included!