From the Star Ledger:
The death of N.J.’s suburbs might be a total myth. Even the experts are surprised
Want to be on the cutting edge of the hot new trend in housing?
It may be time to take a second look at the suburbs.
After bleeding population for the better part of a decade, northern New Jersey’s suburbs appear to be swinging back into favor, new Census data shows.
That’s right, those places with garages and yards once seen as so uncool might be on the rebound as Millennials begin seeking greener pastures.
Hunterdon, Monmouth and Hudson saw their year-over-year population losses slow or halt between 2016 and 2017, while more urbanized counties like Hudson and Union experienced significant slowdowns in their recent breakneck growth.
“It could be a blip in the data, but we were quite surprised,” said James Hughes, dean emeritus of Rutgers University’s Edward J. Bloustein School of Planning and Public Policy.
While one year doesn’t make a trend, Hughes, who has been studying the flight from the suburbs since 2014, said it’s worth noting that housing prices in urbanized counties have skyrocketed with the demand of recent years.
That might be sending young people looking elsewhere for more affordable living, especially as they begin to think about growing their families.
“It could be that they’re going to follow the same pattern of previous generations,” Hughes said.
…
Hughes said there will be challenges for both urban and suburban communities in the years moving forward. Popular urban centers like Jersey City have soaring housing prices and low-ranked schools.Meanwhile, suburban towns built out in the sprawl of the 1980s and 1990s have no central downtown, have an abundance of antiquated office space and no immediate access to public transit.
“Everything is in flux,” he said. “We’re destroying jobs and creating new ones at the same time. But there can be some pretty quick adaptations that towns can make.”
Looking at the graphs in the article, it’s a fairly optimistic interpretation.
I agree, graphs look dismal. As usual, the comments are interesting.
From Bloomberg:
NYC Area Tax-Law Refugees Fuel a Luxury-Home Boom in Florida
When the owner of a financial-services firm in Connecticut saw the U.S. tax overhaul pass in December, capping state and local deductions, he packed his bags. Now he lives in South Florida, soaking up the sun and some serious annual savings.
Like many of Jay Phillip Parker’s clients these days, the empty-nester is a refugee of the Trump tax act — and he’s closing soon on a $6 million Miami-area condo. Luxury-home prices in Florida have been surging ever since the law went into effect, jumping 16 percent in the second quarter from a year earlier, according to data from brokerage Redfin Corp.
“The trigger is tax reform,” said Parker, chief executive officer of Douglas Elliman Real Estate’s operations in Florida, who declined to identify his Connecticut client. “They’re telling me flat out: ‘I made the move because of taxes.’ The implications are hugely significant if you’re a high-income earner.”
Luxury-home prices in Florida have been surging ever since the law went into effect, jumping 16 percent in the second quarter from a year earlier, according to data from brokerage
Aside from another 16 percent jump in the fourth quarter, prices for the top 5 percent of properties in the state rose at the fastest pace in five years, even as values in the rest of the Florida market rose only 7 percent, the slowest rate since 2015, according to Redfin. Luxury prices have moderated nationally, up 5 percent in the second quarter from a year earlier, compared with a year-on-year increase of 7 percent in the second period of 2017.
Meanwhile, the new law’s $10,000 limit on the deduction of state and local taxes is hitting owners hard in the affluent suburbs of New York City, including Westchester County, New Jersey and Connecticut.
What is going on with Monmouth? Miles of Atlantic Ocean beaches, trains, ferries, and buses to Manhattan, great schools, low crime. Yet population in decline.
It’s so great till a category 4 hurricane comes to town. No thank you. Florida has not had a bad hurricane in a while, it’s certainly due. With climate change, these storms will only be getting stronger.
Same thing with sf, you have to be insane to live there right now. Place is so due for a major earthquake.
Northeast is the safest place in terms of natural disasters, unless you bought in a flood zone.
“When the owner of a financial-services firm in Connecticut saw the U.S. tax overhaul pass in December, capping state and local deductions, he packed his bags. Now he lives in South Florida, soaking up the sun and some serious annual savings.”
New Jersey neeeever gets hurricanes amirite !?
Funny, everyone seems to forget who is in control here….not us. Mother Nature will win every time. Cali finding that out with this fire. Only getting worse with climate change.
Why people build million plus homes in high risk locations is beyond me. Doesn’t make much sense.
The hurricanes nj gets are a joke. The only people that have their homes destroyed are idiots that bought in a flood zone and need to be bailed out by the people smart enough to not buy in a high risk flood zone.
If you want some anecdata, the hipsters have finally discovered the more suburban, commutable, eastern parts of Hunterdon County over the past 2 years. Food wise, and off the top of my head, there’s Juniper Hill in Annandale, Sweet Melissa Patisserie on route 31(she’s actually from Brooklyn and deservedly won best bakery in NJ in the Star Ledger), Tenderhill in Whitehouse, Aunt Dee Dee’s and The Kombucha Bar in Flemington, Scout Coffee in High Bridge, Brew 362 in Pittstown, Clean Plate Kitchen in Clinton, and Bex Kitchen in Califon.
But it’s not just hipsters. In the past year: Oink and Moo relocated from Florham Park to effing Perryville. Project Brunch, a small chain on Staten Island opened its first NJ restaurant in Clinton. Chimney Rock Inn is nearly ready to open in Flemington. Also, Hunterdon has its own high end Whole Foods-looking grocery store with a Latin twist with Aqui Market in Califon, complete with a Cuban restaurant and espresso bar.
Pro tip, the very best ice cream in New Jersey is at warehouse-domociled, chalkboard-walled hipster-looking hangout Owowcow in Lambertville. Also the pizza at the Stockton Market is amazing, and you can get it chilled for home cooking at Basil Bandwagon in Clinton and Flemington.
Pumps,
you have bigger chance of getting killed backing out of your driveway into a 2-lane country road, than getting killed in a hurricane..
Hurricane comes few times a year but you are backing out into the highway 300+ days a year. Look at the probability.
having said that, I can’t live in FL from May – September.. Too hot.
Yo I know people in Monmouth the commute to NYC is tough they tell me. The trains of course are horrible. If you are a two income household with young children living in Monmouth and working in NYC is tough. Monmouth is beautiful though and the people more laid back than Bergen co.
I don’t know experts are so smart, yet get things so wrong. Maybe it’s the pressure of their position and having to be right that causes them to totally see things wrong.
How long ago on this blog did I say this would happen. I’m the oldest millennial, I think I know a thing or two about my generation. I saw all my friends pick up and leave as soon as they had a kid. Every single one. Remember, my friends did this trend to the city back to suburbs first because we are the oldest millennials. So I saw the trend first before most could even fathom the burbs would appeal to millennials.
Btw, remember I said I only had one friend left in Hoboken. Well after a year with the kid in Hoboken, they just bought a home in Montclair a couple months ago. This trend back to the burbs was so easy to see because I’m living it. These are my friends. Now most of the rest of the millennials will follow and my call for 2020’s boom will come to light.
“It could be that they’re going to follow the same pattern of previous generations,” Hughes said.
Do you understand that when I back out of my driveway, I rarely have to wait for a car to drive by. Again, keep listening to expat who claims that I don’t have a high school degree.
Btw, I didn’t mean risk of getting killed. Meant risk to your way of life. It’s great when your house and town is destroyed. I have no patience for being in those type of situations, so I would not take the risk. A hurricane stronger than Andrew will hit Florida again, it’s only a matter of when.
NJDepartment says:
August 9, 2018 at 9:02 am
Pumps,
you have bigger chance of getting killed backing out of your driveway into a 2-lane country road, than getting killed in a hurricane..
Hurricane comes few times a year but you are backing out into the highway 300+ days a year. Look at the probability.
Hey doof us the charts don’t reflect the commentary in the article and Mr. Hughes is cautious in his comments you would know that if you actually read the article. But as always you skim over it and then post and say see I told you so.
Can hard work and saving still buy you a house in Southern California? – Los Angeles Times
https://apple.news/AWnTc1TziTKmqoYxBG9KNzQ
Doi doi!
It’s the beginning of the change in trends a$$hole. Anyone with intuition could see this. Those graphs say a lot to someone with intuition. Remember, nyc population and prices peaked for a reason. Same will happen to Hoboken and jc. The spillover has been real with people looking for better values further out.
3b says:
August 9, 2018 at 9:22 am
Hey doof us the charts don’t reflect the commentary in the article and Mr. Hughes is cautious in his comments you would know that if you actually read the article. But as always you skim over it and then post and say see I told you so.
3b,
If you had to make a bet right now, what would you take. Better chance of appreciation in Wayne or Jc?
One has seen its huge run on appreciation and one has not. Easy bet for me. Buying in jc is like buying a stock that has hit all time highs.
There is only one arsehole on this blog and it’s you. Now you tell us graphs are intuition? You are a complete and utter fool. The article was a measured and cautious analysis of perhaps a change or perhaps a pause. And if it is a change there is no indication in the article that it will be a massive change or a complete reversal from what has been occurring over the last decade. It in no way can be construed as justifying your b.s. calls and now your intuition that there will be a massive migration back to the suburbs particularly in your case Wayne. You make a fool of yourself every day.
“The main vice of Capitalism is the uneven distribution of prosperity. The main vice of Social!ism is the even distribution of misery.”-Winston Churchill
Cali finding that out with this fire. Only getting worse with climate change.
Actually, the amount of acreage that has burned due to wildfires has decreased and is supported by the data.
From a scientific journal:
Yet many consider wildfire as an accelerating problem, with widely held perceptions both in the media and scientific papers of increasing fire occurrence, severity and resulting losses. However, important exceptions aside, the quantitative evidence available does not support these perceived overall trends. Instead, global area burned appears to have overall declined over past decades, and there is increasing evidence that there is less fire in the global landscape today than centuries ago.
Pro tip, the very best ice cream in New Jersey is at warehouse-domociled, chalkboard-walled hipster-looking hangout Owowcow in Lambertville.
I like the flavors better at the Bent Spoon in Princeton but the Owowcow is top notch. I’m lactose intolerant and that ice cream was the creamiest I’ve ever had. It hurt to eat, but I keep eating it because it’s so good.
Continued gentrification of the shore, with ooc and retiree residents transitioning to pricey vacation homes.
Means loss of population.
Grim, say what?
Released On 8/9/2018 8:30:00 AM For Jul, 2018
……………………………………Prior..Consensus..Consensus Range..Actual
PPI-FD – M/M change…..0.3 %…..0.3 %………..0.1 % to 0.3 %…..0.0 %
Executive summary:
No inflation, Pumps very sad.
Poor people sell their occupied homes and leave.
Rich people buy the homes, tear them down, build second homes that are not considered occupied.
Population goes down, housing units stay the same despite the jump in building permits.
Wholes@le inflation pressures were surprisingly subdued in July, with producer prices for final demand remaining unchanged after advancing o.3 percent in June and o.5 percent in May
Executive summary:
Stay long stocks, except for pancake in a spray can.
Now I understand why the school budgets keep going down…oh…wait a minute?
Poor people sell their occupied homes and leave.
Rich people buy the homes, tear them down, build second homes that are not considered occupied.
Population goes down, housing units stay the same despite the jump in building permits.
For example, LBI
Lest my comment be misinterpreted, grim is right, school budgets are sticky.
I mentioned the cute little place I rented in Sea Bright well before Sandy destroyed it. Not even owned by poor people, just a nice family summer rental business. After it was totaled, the families (owned by at least middle aged siblings, maybe 3) either didn’t have the wherewithal or agreement or money to rebuild. They had no income for 3 years and finally sold to somebody who will build something much grander. On the surface this doesn’t seem like it would net any change to population, since it was a Summer rental and nobody lived there…unless…they used to rent during the off season to somebody who made it their permanent address for 8-9 months with kids in school. When the new place is built it certainly won’t be an $1800 per month 4BR off-season rental.
BRT,
I cannot believe that just this week I saw the PBS News Hour letting Michael Mann spread his talking points about climate crisis. Actually, I could believe it. But it’s weird to think that taxpayers have to support a hard-left propaganda machine. It’s a disgrace to have such a blatantly biased organization funded by taxes, using Elmo as their shield.
I just though of something. I wonder if anybody gets their summer rental business destroyed by not vetting off-season renters who end up not leaving at the end of May or June or whatever. We rented a beautiful New Hampshire ocean front place in 1997 for $720 per month, September-June! It belonged to a college dean and his HS teacher wife. They didn’t rent it during the Summer, they lived there, so they just wanted a responsible couple for the off season, and that was us. We loved it so much that we let them hold our deposit over the Summer and told them we would be back in September. They loved that I repaired things around the house. They had closet doors that would not close because of house settling, I just used a plane on the tops of the doors to make them fit in the now “not quite rectangular” door frames. They also had a Delta kitchen faucet that was on it’s last legs. I asked them if I could replace it (it needed more than just parts, I replaced the whole thing) and deduct it from the rent. Best $40 they ever spent.
The other side of the coin are renters who hate that they are renters. I was over my wife’s sister’s apartment a zillion years ago and I was appalled when she started slicing something right on the cheap linoleum counter top. I asked her, “Don’t you have a cutting board?” Her reply: “What do I care? I’m a renter.”
Florida sucks
3b:
“There is only one arsehole on this blog and it’s you.”
Hmm, not sure I agree. There are a few folks here worse than Pumps. When Civil War 2.0 comes, I wouldn’t bust a cap in his azz for being a raving Red. A few of the other raving reds here, well, let’s just say that if TSHTF, I want to find them and see the pink mist.
Comrade Very true. I will modify my original comment. He is the only arse hole that posts consistently 7 days a week and most times a dozen or more posts a day.
Anyone who posts all day from morning to late at night is a troll and fake poster.
ahole? nah, he is more of a Jerk in the Steve Martin kind of way.
The new phone book is here!
Our district likes having teaching give “TED talks” and we got lectured by 3 English teachers on climate change. They had no idea what they were talking about.
I have extensive credits in Chemistry, Physics, and Geological Sciences over 10 years. Unlike Pumpkin, I actually do have 3 degrees. None of them qualified me to make judgements on Climate change. I had to read 3 or 4 books on the subject specifically to gain the knowledge. And I chose to read texts from the 70s in our library to avoid the political slant.
The one true NYC commutable town in the millennial vein is Fair Haven…. and it is super small. Also, no suburban corporate jobs. People need to drive to NNJ, Rte 1/Princeton or else NYC……. the exception is that Bell Works may reverse the trend….. also, the Asbury Park return with beach and train line is a draw.
3b says:
August 9, 2018 at 9:08 am
Yo I know people in Monmouth the commute to NYC is tough they tell me. The trains of course are horrible. If you are a two income household with young children living in Monmouth and working in NYC is tough. Monmouth is beautiful though and the people more laid back than Bergen co.
your opinion?
Blue Ribbon Teacher says:
August 9, 2018 at 1:05 pm
Our district likes having teaching give “TED talks” and we got lectured by 3 English teachers on climate change. They had no idea what they were talking about.
I have extensive credits in Chemistry, Physics, and Geological Sciences over 10 years. Unlike Pumpkin, I actually do have 3 degrees. None of them qualified me to make judgements on Climate change. I had to read 3 or 4 books on the subject specifically to gain the knowledge. And I chose to read texts from the 70s in our library to avoid the political slant.
Wondering what the folks on this board do for their vitamins/supplements. I take them with some skepticism and go on and off. Here’s what I’ve been on for the past year or so.
Centrum
Vit C (2 x 1000)
Fish Oil (1400)
Vit D / Calcium combo (1200 / 1000)
Liquid CoQ10
Wondering if I really should continue the regimen or am I just literally pissing money away. Perhaps just take a multi and be done? OTOH, anything that does seem to make a difference for you that I should add?
Blue,
Get your head out of the pile of conservative propaganda sh!t.
These NASA scientists have way more knowledge on climate change than 99.9% of the human beings on this planet. I’ll take their word for it. Enough with the conservative propaganda, you are a teacher. You have to be nuts to think humans have no impact whatsoever on the planet we live.
“Scientific evidence for warming of the climate system is unequivocal.”
– Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
“The Earth’s climate has changed throughout history. Just in the last 650,000 years there have been seven cycles of glacial advance and retreat, with the abrupt end of the last ice age about 7,000 years ago marking the beginning of the modern climate era — and of human civilization. Most of these climate changes are attributed to very small variations in Earth’s orbit that change the amount of solar energy our planet receives.
The current warming trend is of particular significance because most of it is extremely likely (greater than 95 percent probability) to be the result of human activity since the mid-20th century and proceeding at a rate that is unprecedented over decades to millennia.1
Earth-orbiting satellites and other technological advances have enabled scientists to see the big picture, collecting many different types of information about our planet and its climate on a global scale. This body of data, collected over many years, reveals the signals of a changing climate.
The heat-trapping nature of carbon dioxide and other gases was demonstrated in the mid-19th century.2 Their ability to affect the transfer of infrared energy through the atmosphere is the scientific basis of many instruments flown by NASA. There is no question that increased levels of greenhouse gases must cause the Earth to warm in response.
Ice cores drawn from Greenland, Antarctica, and tropical mountain glaciers show that the Earth’s climate responds to changes in greenhouse gas levels. Ancient evidence can also be found in tree rings, ocean sediments, coral reefs, and layers of sedimentary rocks. This ancient, or paleoclimate, evidence reveals that current warming is occurring roughly ten times faster than the average rate of ice-age-recovery warming.3”
https://climate.nasa.gov/evidence/
Not going to listen to some conservative think tank funded by koch brothers to take the position that climate change is not real.
Pumpa,
I’m not a conservative or a liberal.. I always wondered how did mars lose all its atmosphere with nobody in there…
Grim, that trend has been going on for decades, but the population grew for decades, before it began to shrink a few years ago. Even towns miles from the ocean with swaths of buildable land,, like Upper Freehold, are losing population. Besides, Monmouth appears to have fewer second homes compared to other shore counties, like LBI in Ocean County.
Topper,
I think this is too much. Did you really see some difference ??
Used to take fish oil but donno when I stopped.. I just try to keep my weight under control to be considered as Slim and run like 5-6 miles a week , few days of tennis, cycling and golf..
Mars cooled to the point that it lost it’s magnetic field, a compass won’t work there.
As it lost it’s magnetic field, solar winds were able to blow it’s atmosphere away, because the ions were no longer held in place.
Or something like that.
I don’t think humans can’t destroy earth until they reach Type II civilization.
A Type I civilization—also called a planetary civilization—can use and store all of the energy which reaches its planet from its parent star.
A Type II civilization—also called a stellar civilization—can harness the total energy of its planet’s parent star (the most popular hypothetical concept being the Dyson sphere—a device which would encompass the entire star and transfer its energy to the planet(s)).
A Type III civilization—also called a galactic civilization—can control energy on the scale of its entire host galaxy.[2]
on Kardashev scale
..those Kardashian’s are into everything..who knew…
Get your head out of the pile of conservative propaganda sh!t.
Asshole, I referenced a scientific journal.
your opinion?
Of course climate change is real. This planet used to have 1 single continent. Nothing is static. The sun, the ocean, volcanoes.
With respect to sea level, I don’t give a crap and neither should anyone else. The rate at which sea levels change is a full order of magnitude longer than the time it takes to build a city.
With respect to temperature, I don’t give a crap and neither should anyone else. Plants can grow in every single climate zone. We farm in Arizona. We also are on the verge of genetically engineering plants to change their ability to survive in hot and cold climate zones.
Humans are the most adaptive species on the planet and anyone that thinks we as a society cannot adapt to a hotter climate is a science denier.
With respect to storms, there’s no evidence that bad storms are becoming more prevalent.
With respect to fires, it’s BS and and anyone who looks at the data can see that fires are burning less acreage.
The most positive impact on my personal environment from the past 100 years:
modern HVAC systems coupled with the fossil fuels that allow them to work. Couple that with ready access to transportation thanks to the internal combustion engine plus petroleum. It’s saved millions of lives from the ravages of seasonal weather change and storms, and made billions of lives more pleasant.
But feel free to trade that in for an 1870s lifestyle, punkin.
The earth is heating at a rate that is ten times more than the previous periods. That’s hyper speed. I shouldn’t worry about the scientists begging people to open their eyes before it’s too late because people like Blue say that we are going to be okay on a much hotter planet. God help us.
No wonder you embrace capitalism like you do, you don’t care about anyone but yourself. That’s why you cry about paying taxes. This post you just wrote makes me sick. It’s okay to destroy the future because we won’t be alive, so live it up!
Provocateur says:
August 9, 2018 at 2:19 pm
The most positive impact on my personal environment from the past 100 years:
modern HVAC systems coupled with the fossil fuels that allow them to work. Couple that with ready access to transportation thanks to the internal combustion engine plus petroleum. It’s saved millions of lives from the ravages of seasonal weather change and storms, and made billions of lives more pleasant.
But feel free to trade that in for an 1870s lifestyle, punkin.
I have to say it is fun telling recruiters to (basically) go eat sh*t with their 5 years experience “senior” level jobs. It is going to be a fun fall after 5 months of having to grovel to these morons and dealing with flaky, arrogant low-balling d!cks . I think some of these firms will be in for a rude awakening in a few weeks when they get back from vacation and scramble to hire. I am seeing some of it now, begging for recommendations for more junior paying jobs. I will ignore every request. Just told me 2017 grad recruiter who probably does not have facial hair to shove off on “experienced” role that probably pays squat. He did not want to disclose location or salary. Good luck, little boy.
Bystander,
I went through it many times, especially when Lehman collapsed and the sh1t hit the fan. I’d get calls from “kids” with the canned greetings and I felt like jumping through the phone. They sounded literally like children playing a game. Bide your time and keep your ears and eyes open. My pay grade is below yours for sure but it’s all the same nonsense. One day at a time!
NJD – hard to say … perhaps didn’t catch a cold? But have been healthy (knock on wood) so again don’t know. I may end up going off again after I run out. Hard to know what to do these days … every couple of years a new study or research contradicts the other – even food wise. (Similar to the climate debate that’s going on here.)
Sounds like you are doing the right thing – exercise and watch the weight. I need to do some of that and could lose a few pounds.
Topper,
I take a multi, extra D (since I don’t see the sun as much as I should) and fish oil, since I’m lacking Omega Cs and it helps get my good/bad cholesterol in balance. I get my blood tested yearly.
I believe in vitamins as when I don’t take them, I get sick more frequently. My dog is on a multi vitamin too. He is approaching 14 without a single sickness and he’s had more chocolate than he should have thanks to neighbors kids. Dog has never even had the runs.
Though always take the vitamins when eating food to improve the absorption rate. Only take what your blood test results say you need. Otherwise you are throwing your money away. I try to eat as little processed food as possible.
Turns out it’s possible to make a fortune in pancakes. Just not punkin:
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-08-09/the-14-2-million-montana-fishing-ranch-that-pancake-mix-built
I’m still waiting to hear what caused the ice age? I’m still waiting to hear how they find fossils containing sea creatures in the Colorado Rockies? I’m still waiting for climate scientists to prove that the earth isn’t heating naturally.
With that said, I’m surprised by how many people where environmental issues like a designer label.
The climate warriors… the same ones that sit on manufactured furniture resting on manufactured tile in manufactured, air-cooled environments, festering away on manufactured iShit products while drinking manufactured liquids.
You see how productive humans get as the temperature rises, but don’t worry, blue says we will be better off.
I’m sure cattle farms will do great with an increase in temperature.
We will become the planet Arrakis and need to wear stillsuits!!
So ignorant.
We are talking about the masses. They don’t give a crap about anything. Whatever is marketed to them, they will buy.
Thank god for people like musk, that force an entire industry to stop the nonsense and change.
You see it’s not about getting individuals to stop, it’s about getting industries to change their ways and start marketing better products for our future survival.
Fast Eddie says:
August 9, 2018 at 3:05 pm
The climate warriors… the same ones that sit on manufactured furniture resting on manufactured tile in manufactured, air-cooled environments, festering away on manufactured iShit products while drinking manufactured liquids.
That’s why trump is a dumba$$. He is giving these guys a free ticket to pollute and he is supporting industries that we should let die. Of course, trump is only focused on money, so why wouldn’t he take his position based on that.
2400 mg Fish Oil (2 x 1200 mg soft gels)
1 full sized aspirin (fu.ck that baby aspirin bullshit)
zero prescription meds.
Wondering what the folks on this board do for their vitamins/supplements. I take them with some skepticism and go on and off. Here’s what I’ve been on for the past year or so.
2400 mg Fish Oil (2 x 1200 mg soft gels)
1 full sized aspirin (fu.ck that baby aspirin bullshit)
zero prescr1pt1on meds.
Wondering what the folks on this board do for their vitamins/supplements. I take them with some skepticism and go on and off. Here’s what I’ve been on for the past year or so.
I also rarely have a headache or body aches, but when I do, I hit it hard. 1000 mg ibuprofen (5 standard caps, gels, or tabs).
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“Seasonal forecasters with NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center have increased the likelihood of a below-normal Atlantic hurricane season to 60 percent (up from 25 percent in May) in the updated outlook, issued today. The likelihood of a near-normal season is now at 30 percent, and the chance of an above-normal season has dropped from 35 percent to 10 percent.”
How about those climate forecasters?
Yeah, I’m sure the entire Northeast would have problems with an extended growing season. I’ve worked on farms…5 years in Colts Neck. Ive grown every crop you can in NJ. You know nothing about farming or crop production.
Climate change – I agree with BRT – yeah, it just happens. In ancient times the Middle East was verdant, that’s why civilization evolved there. In simple terms, if you can store a surplus of food the population can start to specialize as not every one has to be a daily hunter/gatherer. That’s how agriculture began. OTOH, the equatorial rain forests have never changed enough that the population still spends every waking hour gathering enough food to live until the next day, so that population evolved hardly a bit. Now the Middle East is a desert, so society went the other way. Cut off heads for food, if necessary. If it wasn’t for oil, most of the Middle East populations would be extinct.
I am significantly vitamin D deficient. If you work in an office and have cardiovascular disease in your background, then 1-7 drop of this stuff may be good. Absorbs well. My HDL/LDL et al. improved dramatically. As people have said…. do a blood panel. Don’t screw around with your body chemistry blind.
https://www.amazon.com/Pure-Encapsulations-Hypoallergenic-Prostate-Cardiovascular/dp/B0017OFTTU
This garbage seems to help too although I assume there are many equivalents….
https://www.amazon.com/Vibrant-Health-Plant-based-Superfood-Antioxidants/dp/B06XCNXDHF?th=1
https://www.nj.com/politics/index.ssf/2018/08/njs_top_dem_lawmaker_offers_huge_plans_change_for.html
Centrum plus an additional 1000iu of Vit-D. Nearly the entire population is D deficient.
Half an aspirin, which is slightly more than the typical baby dose. Don’t screw around with aspirin, it does alter blood chemistry (obviously, that’s why you take it). Watch for bruising easily.
Otherwise with Lib, blood panel annually. Too old to fcuk around. And I eat well. Can’t remember the last time (decades?) since I had McD, Wendys, BK….
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Looks like folks use Vit D and fish oil.
ChiFi – I was diagnosed Vit D deficient few years ago (don’t get enough sunlight) so tried a regimen a friend suggested – it was 50000 iu weekly for several weeks (I forget) and then coming down to something more normal and then to 1000-1200. It worked – my doctor was surprised and impressed. I can look up the one I bought if anyone needs. The probiotics is good stuff – I forgot to mention. My wife has been giving me and the kids probiotics over the last few months and that really feels good … and cleans you out ;)
Looks like I may have to add some aspirin and knock off the Vit C (unless I fee a cold coming). Doc definitely has me get the blood work semi-annually. That’s pretty much all he seems to do with all his patients. Surprised no one mentioned CoQ10 – it seems to have good research behind it.
Expat – that dosage of ibuprofen is near OD level. That’s crazy. Be careful brother.
Darn – I was hoping me my semi-annual/quarterly (depends on how much pull my youngest has) Big Mac (and Fillet O Fish) this week too. The blood work can wait I suppose.
I do fish oil daily which helps clear up my eczema and also helps out with my joint pain. Aside from that, I’ve eliminated every supplement from my diet.
3:05 imbecilic
Pumps on climate change. Yes we are having an impact, yes emissions are bad but the science has been politicized. There has never been an accurate climate model, our understanding of how all the variables interact is very flawed and the political bent is about control….not saving the world…..remember these people fly around on private jets to preach about climate change. Think about it for a second, so I am immediately distrustful of the political agenda that intends to regulate my behavior. Please see fear mongering. Also any scientist to dare dissent from climate change religion is cut off. it’s reminscent of how the church used to treat scientists in the middle ages!
On to the next point look at the medieval warm period, to BRT and ExPat’s points the rise in temperature was associated with lifting society out of the dark ages. the period of enlightenment occurs, modern banking, insurance and democratic republics start to be formed. So is the warming necessarily a bad thing? Agriculture benefited when it got hot.
“Darn – I was hoping me my semi-annual/quarterly (depends on how much pull my youngest has) Big Mac (and Fillet O Fish) this week too.”
Ehh, on the other hand that’s why God created statins? ;)
Whats the probiotic you use?
Domestic abuse is cause for international asylum? Are you fcuking kidding me?
My divorce decree is oppressive. I need to go seek asylum in a more friendly country that shares my view and repudiate it.
https://www.nbcnews.com/storyline/immigration-border-crisis/judge-orders-plane-carrying-deported-mother-child-turned-around-blocks-n899311
“Carmen” is seeking asylum based on domestic violence.
Sorry, your bad relationship decisions is not my country’s problem. Do what everyone else does here – fcuking figure it out.
“Some legal systems are not as accommodating and anomalies show distinct bias to one party or another.
“For example, barely half of the European Union member states (EU) honor prenuptial agreements. There is no maintenance for women in Denmark and Sweden…”
Big fan of both countries. Guess I’ll be seeking asylum in one.
That sounds like a food allergy. Ever consider an elimination diet? Remove one thing at a time. Start with cow milk. Try wheat/gluten. Corn, corn syrup, corn products. Also remove soy. Soy is really bad stuff.
Blue Ribbon Teacher says:
August 9, 2018 at 5:03 pm
I do fish oil daily which helps clear up my eczema and also helps out with my joint pain. Aside from that, I’ve eliminated every supplement from my diet.
It’s a reaction to Sodium Laurel Sulfate from detergent.
This should ruffle a few feathers.
“This has been a tough week for many of the public worker haters. First the civil service ruling and now pension changes that don’t mean a thing unless you are brand new and they may not even get the ok from Murph. Couple that with the big toll hikes that are coming. Wow.”
Blue,
Looks like your pension is safe. New teachers, not so much. I guess it’s fair in that new teachers know what they are getting themselves into. I just hope it doesn’t impact quality of teacher. We need our schools to be the best in the country. It’s the golden ticket to a good economy long term.
I hope these politicians really fix our state. Come on, Murphy! This is an opportunity for greatness!
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