Don’t believe the hype?

From MarketWatch:

Why the housing and mortgage crisis is far from over

With major data providers reporting that mortgage delinquencies continue to decline, Wall Street and the pundits are more convinced than ever that the mortgage crisis is dead and buried.

The enormous delinquency problem in the New York City metro area shows why I’m convinced that the U.S. housing and mortgage crisis is far from over, and reveals an ugly truth about mortgage deadbeats. Moreover, New York City is not the only city in this weakened position.

Here’s what’s happening in New York that is likely occurring in other major U.S. real estate markets. In 2009, the New York State legislature passed a statute requiring all mortgage servicers to send a pre-foreclosure notice to all delinquent owner-occupants in the state. The notice warned them that they were in danger of foreclosure and explained how they could get help. Servicers were required to regularly send statistics back to the state’s Department of Financial Services for all notices sent out. The department published two reports in 2010 with a compilation of these numbers. That was the last time these statistics were officially reported.

I have obtained the unpublished figures from a person involved with compiling the pre-foreclosure notice filings for the department. The latest update shows cumulative figures through the third quarter of 2018, covering New York City as well as Nassau and Suffolk counties on Long Island. Totals for the entire state are also included.

Here is a brief summary of what the data show. Since February 2010, mortgage servicers have sent out a total of 1,242,490 pre-foreclosure notices to delinquent owner-occupants in New York City and Long Island. This does not include delinquent investor-owners because that was not required under the 2009 law. About 85% of these notices were for delinquent first liens and the remainder were for second liens.

From the data and my contact, it’s likely that roughly 40% of these were second or third notices sent to the same property. Why? The servicers have been sending repeat notices to owners who have not taken action to cure their delinquency for more than a year, and have not yet been foreclosed. My contact recently informed me that close to 20% of the total are duplicates sent out mistakenly by the servicers.

That most of these delinquent owners have not paid for years is confirmed by related figures published monthly in theLong Island Real Estate Report. Since early 2016, almost half of the formal notices of default filed in Suffolk County have been repeat notices. Why? In New York State, a default notice (known as a lis pendens) is only active for three years after which it expires. Hence lenders have had to file a new default notice for borrowers whose default notice has been active for three years.

Some may contend that pre-foreclosure notice numbers don’t reveal much because many of these delinquencies must have been either (1) foreclosed by the servicing bank or (2) brought current by the borrower.

Let’s tackle these objections one at a time. Concerning foreclosures, I have reliable figures from Property Shark that an average of 1,548 properties were foreclosed annually in New York City between 2012 and 2016. Furthermore, their latest data show that just 1,312 foreclosed properties are now owned by the banks (REOs) and a mere 630 were scheduled for foreclosure auction as of November 2018.

The Furman Center for Real Estate at New York University publishes an annual State of New York City’s Housing and Neighborhoods Report. Its 2015 report shows that an average of only 300 properties were foreclosed and re-possessed each year in New York City by the lender from 2011 to 2014. This in a city where 635,359 pre-foreclosure notices have been sent to deadbeats since early 2010. Its latest report for 2017 showed that the annual number of default notices filed in NYC has been declining every year since 2013 to just 10,000 in 2017.

The inescapable truth is that for eight years, mortgage servicers have foreclosed on exceptionally few long-term delinquent homeowners in New York City and Long Island.

What about the claim that many of these delinquent property owners have probably brought their loans current after receiving a pre-foreclosure notice? Remember that roughly 40% of these pre-foreclosure notices are second- or third notices sent to borrowers because they have not paid the arrears owed.

Does this have implications for the delinquency situation of other major metro areas? Clearly. Because of New York State’s pre-foreclosure notice requirement, the New York City metro data provide the most comprehensive and reliable delinquency statistics in the nation. Unfortunately, to a great extent we are in the dark when it comes to the two dozen other major metros where the housing collapse of a decade ago was centered.

The trouble is that all data providers which claim to have delinquency figures are dependent on the numbers they obtain from the mortgage servicers — which are their clients. Seven years of digging for reliable data have taught me that numbers from the servicers are extremely inaccurate and often incomplete.

It is evident that in early 2016, 10 major metros that had deadbeat problems with their non-agency securitized loans all had serious delinquency rates of 23% or higher. I am confident that the delinquency rate for those major metros that suffered significant housing collapses is almost certainly much higher than widely believed.

This entry was posted in Foreclosures, National Real Estate, NYC. Bookmark the permalink.

64 Responses to Don’t believe the hype?

  1. 1987 Condo says:

    I remember all those posts years ago talking about not paying the mortgage and living “rent free” etc, apparently that really was the way to go, the folks on my block didn’t pay for 10 years (always paid property tax though), HELOC’d the heck out of the property and bought new cars etc…they were only evicted in mid 2018……

  2. 1987 Condo says:

    oh…and FIRST and Second!

  3. Yo! says:

    Wouldn’t surprise me if the New York City and Long Island delinquency situation is similar in N.J. 30 year, Grim, others – any insights?

  4. grim says:

    Would assume some sort of similarity across all lien theory states (aka judicial foreclosure states).

  5. D-FENS says:

    http://nj1015.com/murphys-staff-passed-the-buck-on-rape-allegation-for-months/

    Any hope the Murphy administration had for a quick resolution to this scandal was fully dashed on Tuesday. The committee signaled they may broaden their investigation after another Murphy staffer has come forward with allegations of a hostile workplace, and campaign staffers admitted three to five additional staffers had also lodged complaints against the campaign.

  6. D-FENS says:

    How many of you knew there were as many as 3 women that came forward? It’s amazing how this is being under-reported.

    https://newjerseyglobe.com/governor/third-woman-accuses-alvarez-of-sexual-assault/

  7. D-FENS says:

    Physical evidence…and other allegations of the same pattern.

    https://www.nj.com/politics/2018/10/woman_accusing_ex-murphy_staffer_of_rape_in_unimpe.html

    Brennan told the Journal she immediately called her husband, who was overseas, and a close friend who stayed with her for several days. The next day, she went to the Jersey City Medical Center emergency room for an evidence-gathering medical examination, or “rape kit.”

    Through his attorney, John Hogan, Alvarez has denied Brennan’s allegations. Alvarez resigned Oct. 2, the same day the Journal called him seeking comment for its story.

    The Hudson County Prosecutor’s Office reviewed the evidence and declined to pursue charges at the time. The case has been transferred to the Middlesex County Prosecutor’s Office.

  8. GdBlsU45 says:

    Lol. Brennan hearings are a charade. Nobody knows nothing. People get hired magically with no oversight. The word “it” now apparently has some new unknown meaning. Phil was “on it”. No mention of any repercussions just business as usual stacked to the ceiling with insider hacks who are robbing the state blind. Nj fake news has decided to transform their political reporter to a tax expert so they can continue to bash trump.

  9. The Great Pumpkin says:

    This Brennan issue is not unique to nj government…..ever hear of the #metoo movement? This is a cultural issue across all industries. You supported trump after you heard him say, “grab them by the pu$$y,” right? I’m no longer support democrats, so don’t think this is in support of Democrats. A lot of f’ed up guys out there with power that try to do as they please. How many payoffs trump make and that’s our president?

    GdBlsU45 says:
    January 9, 2019 at 8:51 am
    Lol. Brennan hearings are a charade. Nobody knows nothing. People get hired magically with no oversight. The word “it” now apparently has some new unknown meaning. Phil was “on it”. No mention of any repercussions just business as usual stacked to the ceiling with insider hacks who are robbing the state blind. Nj fake news has decided to transform their political reporter to a tax expert so they can continue to bash trump.

  10. The Original NJ ExPat says:

    Jeff Bezos is getting divorced. I never imagined him being married; that thought was as foreign to my mind as Nostradumbass with a legitimate college high school degree in hand.

  11. The Great Pumpkin says:

    From the comment section on the lead article….author is the responding comment.

    Keith- Great article. I have been in the NYC Metro market in the mortgage industy for years and have seen a lack of interest of the servicing banks in foreclosing but have not seen a difference between agency and non agency. I don’t see how the MBS owners are tolerating this. There must be legal stipulations that the servicers act in the best interest of the lien holder. Otherwise who would purchase an MBS? Additionally why would a portfolio- self servicing lender not foreclose. I suspect that the lenders may be carrying these mortgages at their outstanding value for reserve purposes. One thought is that as soon as they force the sale and they realize all losses for accounting purposes, the value of their net asset drops like a rock. This would have bigger implications for our banking industry and not just the real estate markets. I used to believe theytwere holding off because dumoing a lot of the houses in the market quickly would also hurt values, especially a few years ago when values were depressed. But I see that you see evidence that the higher values are not quickening the pace of sales. It is a mystery and I have not met one professional that can satisfactorily explain it. I hear some lenders are forcing the owners to pay the taxes, jeopordizing their liens, if taxes go unpaid. I wonder what a few carefully placed FOILs might show? But do we really want to know?
    Reply
    Share
    Matthew, Thanks for the kind words. What is going on in NY State has perplexed me for years. But regular discussion with my contact at DFS has convinced me that his stats are comprehensive and accurate. On delinquent mortgages, the servicer is responsible under the PSA to advance P & I to the lender. But I have other fairly solid data that with a steadily growing percentage of prime delinquent loans, the servicer is not advancing the money to the lender. How? Under the PSA, the servicer can stop paying if they believe that the full amount they are owed cannot be recovered at liquidation. Often, the servicer then takes the full amount of advances already forwarded in a lump sum at the time of a “capitalized” modification. It is the lender who gets totally screwed, but there is little they can do. Crazy, isn’t it?

  12. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Crazy!

    D-FENS says:
    January 9, 2019 at 9:42 am
    BP just discovered a billion solar panels in the Gulf of Mexico

    https://www.cnbc.com/2019/01/08/bp-just-discovered-a-billion-barrels-of-oil-in-gulf-of-mexico.html

  13. Libturd, can't say I didn't warn you. says:

    “BP just discovered a billion solar panels in the Gulf of Mexico”

    Did they look directly below the horizontal pipe that leaked uncontrollably for months and ruined tourism in the Gulf about a decade back?

  14. D-FENS says:

    pipe down. I’m trying to gas up my escalade

  15. 30 year realtor says:

    As of right now there are 143 properties still scheduled for the Bergen sheriff sale on Friday. Likely somewhere between 35 and 50 of those scheduled will actually go to sale this week. The number is inflated due to the 2 month hiatus in sales due to the resignation of the last sheriff.

    The number of sales scheduled in counties across North Jersey appears to be increasing. The vast majority of these cases are post financial crisis purchases.

  16. Blue Ribbon Teacher says:

    I remember all those posts years ago talking about not paying the mortgage and living “rent free” etc, apparently that really was the way to go, the folks on my block didn’t pay for 10 years (always paid property tax though), HELOC’d the heck out of the property and bought new cars etc…they were only evicted in mid 2018……

    My uncles did it at my grandmother’s home in Bergenfield. He loaded it up with broken down white vans and all kinds of scrap metal. They didn’t come until 2017. Not a single payment since 2007….taxes or mortgage. So it’s been foreclosed on now, and he’s back squatting there.

    There’s a woman in the union county area that owns 5 or 6 “income properties” bought in 2006. She has been renting them out and stopped paying mortgage. She had a friend who was a lawyer constantly delay proceedings. My guess is, she was bringing in 15 to 20k a month in cash. I’m not sure whether they have been foreclosed on yet.

  17. Blue Ribbon Teacher says:

    Also, one of my uncles was able to buy a condo near the shore for cash as a result of the 10 year free living arrangement. Well…technically, he’s never paid rent in his life.

  18. The Original NJ ExPat says:

    There are hundreds of 10+ year old defaults in Morris County. I used to post about them regularly.

  19. The Original NJ ExPat says:

    The chief executive of the company which cared for a Phoenix woman who gave birth despite having been in a vegetative state for 10 years has resigned.

    https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2019/jan/08/phoenix-woman-coma-gives-birth-hacienda-healthcare-ceo-resigns

  20. The Great Pumpkin says:

    If I had no moral compass, I would go purchase a home with the low percentage down payment and start collecting rent while not sending a dime to the govt or bank. Too bad I understand the importance of keeping the system going. These people are just as bad as corrupt politicians and dirty bankers. No difference. Hence, you can never stop corruption, it’s everywhere, you can only contain it. Understand, these individuals making out by not paying mortgages are the scum of the earth…..the most corrupt.

  21. abeiz says:

    “I remember all those posts years ago talking about not paying the mortgage and living “rent free” etc, apparently that really was the way to go, the folks on my block didn’t pay for 10 years (always paid property tax though), HELOC’d the heck out of the property and bought new cars etc…they were only evicted in mid 2018……”

    Amateurs. No need to pay taxes, as the bank will step in to protect its interest and pay the bill. Imagine my confusion in ’10 when I was told at the town clerk’s office that I didn’t need to pay property taxes on a family property as someone paid them already.

    That house went cash for keys sometime in ’14? And at that time I thought he was the last of the last holdouts and the whole thing was done and over with.

  22. The Original NJ ExPat says:

    Or investors will pay the taxes, so long as it is not Detroit. I used to date a Mafia princess who now lives in Wayne. All she does is pay other people’s taxes. It’s a good business.

    Amateurs. No need to pay taxes, as the bank will step in to protect its interest and pay the bill.

  23. Libturd...look me up in Costa Rica says:

    ExPat,

    That’s truly sickening.

    Police demand DNA from Phoenix care staff after woman in coma gives birth

  24. 30 year realtor says:

    Tax sales are good business until you have to bid premiums or get title raided. Whatever the other guy is doing is easy until you try it yourself.

  25. Juice Box says:

    Bezos no longer to be the richest man in the world. Jeff Bezos and his wife of 25 years MacKenzie have announced they will be getting a divorce.

    The good news is she can just print off her own label and return her marriage at the nearest UPS.

  26. Libturd...look me up in Costa Rica says:

    I read somewhere that Bezos said his reason for the breakup was that Mackenzie was past her prime.

  27. Juice Box says:

    Lib – Their 4 kids are 12-18 yrs old. I can imagine that having a gaggle of nannies no longer works at that age since Daddy is hardly home.

  28. Ottoman says:

    Bezos- all that money and he still can’t fix his wonky eye.

  29. No One says:

    “loving exploration” before “trial separation” then divorce. WTF is “loving exploration”? Honey, I’m not cheating on you, I’m just doing some loving exploration!
    I’ll bet Bezos is offered a lot of prime dating opportunities that most of us would have difficulty turning down.

  30. chicagofinance says:

    Pun intended?

    Libturd…look me up in Costa Rica says:
    January 9, 2019 at 10:55 am
    I read somewhere that Bezos said his reason for the breakup was that Mackenzie was past her prime.

  31. chicagofinance says:

    Pun intended?

    No One says:
    January 9, 2019 at 11:18 am
    “loving exploration” before “trial separation” then divorce. WTF is “loving exploration”? Honey, I’m not cheating on you, I’m just doing some loving exploration!
    I’ll bet Bezos is offered a lot of prime dating opportunities that most of us would have difficulty turning down.

  32. Grim says:

    This whole Sears think stinks, bailed out by the CEOs hedge fund? How do you play both sides of this.

  33. Bruiser says:

    Amazon will soon be offering Prime Brides with free 2 day shipping. Bezos already tested out the service and can’t believe he didn’t think of it sooner.

  34. D-FENS says:

    @AndrewSeidman
    Follow Follow @AndrewSeidman
    More
    inbox: Sweeney Endorses Disclosure Requirements for Independent Advocacy Organizations
    –would make it retroactive (so New Direction NJ donors would be made public)

  35. chicagofinance says:

    “I don’t throw darts at a board. I bet on sure things.”
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-TLCaDbBv_s

    Grim says:
    January 9, 2019 at 11:47 am
    This whole Sears think stinks, bailed out by the CEOs hedge fund? How do you play both sides of this.

  36. Juice Box says:

    Grim – re: Sears – They sold off the profitable locations (land etc) to Lampert’s REIT Heritage Growth Properties is 2015 and leased it back to Sears. What is left now in bankruptcy remaining (land) is now up for grabs in Auction next week.

    There is one outlier a company like Target or Walmart which generally owns the land it’s store are one might bid if the math works.

    Either way I feel sorry for the workers mostly at Sears Auto. I used to go there all the time, the one by me now has paper on the windows and the bays are closed permanently.

  37. joyce says:

    Can you explain what title raided is?

    Remember the story of the “rigged” bidding (i.e. collusion) in I want to say 2013? Not related to anything, just popped into my mind.

    30 year realtor says:
    January 9, 2019 at 10:38 am
    Tax sales are good business until you have to bid premiums or get title raided. Whatever the other guy is doing is easy until you try it yourself.

  38. D-FENS says:

    wait…Jeff Bezos is single?

  39. leftwing says:

    “I’ll bet Bezos is offered a lot of prime dating opportunities that most of us would have difficulty turning down.”

    Reminds me of my first ‘adult’ discussion with my mom…..

    She was lamenting some high profile actor getting caught with a prostitute, which was a big deal back in the Stone Ages. Tom Cruise I think. Going on about how shameful it was, and why some one like him would have to ‘pay for it’.

    My comment…hey mom, he’s not paying for ‘it’, he’s paying so that they aren’t there when he wakes up.

    Long time between conversations after that one lol…..

  40. 1987 Condo says:

    I was thinking Hugh Grant as well, can’t believe it was that long ago!

  41. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Not for or against, simply trying to figure out what is the correct course of action.

    “For a real world example, critics and fans alike should look to Sweden. The Nordic country has a marginal tax wedge — the difference between the cost to the employer and what a worker takes home — of 69.7 percent on salaries above $79,000. That’s almost 30 percentage points higher than in the U.S., and it kicks in a lot earlier than Ocasio-Cortez is proposing.

    Critics of high taxes claim the policy stifles economic growth by reducing the incentive for people to work. But Sweden’s employment rate is 77.5 percent, beating the U.S.’s 71 percent. The Nordic country has also surpassed the U.S. in terms of economic growth this decade, expanding 2.7 percent a year, on average, compared with 2.2 percent for the U.S.

    Ocasio-Cortez, 29, is a former campaign worker for Senator Bernie Sanders who has held up the virtues of the Nordic economic model. She wants to raise taxes to pay for programs to fight inequality and climate change and provide health care for all, benefits already enjoyed by Swedes and many Europeans. As a result, income equality is notably higher in the region than in the U.S.

    Alexandria Ocasio-CortezPhotographer: Brendan Smialowski/AFP via Getty Images
    Inequality, and its impact on growth, has become one of the key issues explored by economists in the post-financial crisis world. A recent paper by economists Peter Diamond and Emmanuel Saez calculated that the optimal top tax rate would be about 73 percent.”

    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-01-09/hysteria-around-a-70-tax-rate-gets-a-reality-check-in-sweden?srnd=premium

  42. The Great Pumpkin says:

    All I care about is what is optimum for economic growth. What % helps the overall economy the most? That’s what we should figure out and focus on. What % makes the economy work in the most efficient for everyone. I don’t give a crap about what benefits an individual, I only care about what is best for the overall economy.

  43. chicagofinance says:

    opinions on STZ please……

  44. Bystander says:

    Bruiser,

    I hear a burnt orange faced lunatic named David Dennison had already signed up for the pilot service.

  45. The Great Pumpkin says:

    “Although concerns linger about how protectionist tensions and political instability in the world’s largest economy will affect global growth, they also set up a potential Goldilocks scenario for markets after Fed’s apparent dovish shift.

    “A softness in the economy or in some indicators would allow the Fed the space not necessarily to continue to raise,” said Kim Forrest, senior portfolio manager at Fort Pitt Capital Group in Pittsburgh. “That is going to drive the market higher.””

    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-01-08/asian-stocks-to-climb-as-trade-thaw-optimism-grows-markets-wrap?srnd=premium

  46. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Hope people bought all the cheap stocks that they could. Whatever reason for the massive drop, it was a gift from the Lord.

  47. 1987 Condo says:

    STZ was part of a pretty long segment on CNBC this am….

  48. The Original NJ ExPat says:

    S&P 500 hit 2595 less than two hours ago. Reversal begins now.

    The Original NJ ExPat says:
    January 5, 2019 at 3:29 pm

    BTW, here’s what a Pumpkin call NEVER looks like:

    The S&P 500 will climb to 2593.36 this week and then drastically reverse.

  49. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Email from financial samurai blog.

    This is what I was talking about a month ago when I pointed out the powers that be (market big dogs that can move markets) are looking to take the market down on bs. Why does it make a difference how long this bull run has been going? Why? What a joke. I heard this argument every single year since 2012. One day these jokers will be correct I guess.

    Why not instead pay attention to the fundamentals in the economy that actually matter. The fundamentals in the economy say this is not ending anytime soon. Stop looking for any negative factor that comes along and claiming it’s the end of the bull run…,recession is coming. Gtfo of here with that nonsense.

    “Earning 2.45% isn’t going to make you rich. But earning 2.45% is better than earning a negative 6.4% in the S&P 500 in 2018 (-4.8% with dividends). I think there’s a decent chance we can see a 10% rebound in the S&P 500 in 2019. But I also would not be surprised one bit if the S&P 500 declined by 10% in 2019 either.

    For 2019, I’m all about locking in wins. And earning 2.45% risk-free with your liquid assets is a huge win. We don’t have to let the Fed beat our risk assets up. We need to take advantage of rising short-term interest rates to protect our wealth after a 9-year bull run.

    Check out CIT Bank’s 2.45% money market account here. In addition to building a larger money market and short-term CD account all year, I’m also going to be aggressively paying down my mortgage that is set to reset in July.

    I’ve never been more focused in 2019 to build wealth. I hope you will do the same.

    Regards,

    Sam – Financial Freedom Sooner, Rather Than Later“

  50. leftwing says:

    STZ no real view but that is one ugly ass chart. Buyers straight out of the chute this morning tried to rally it, didn’t hold, ended the day lower….looks like it should have rallied toward 154 but obviously didn’t. Wish i saw the CNBC piece….was in it briefly when it took the dip on canopy but out again in a couple weeks…

  51. Provocateur says:

    2:27
    I’d like to see a comparison of the employment rate of women in the US vs Sweden. I suspect that’s the big swing factor. Women in Sweden can collect benefits, send their babies to government daycare, and work for relatively low wages. I think more marginal Swedish workers are simultaneously working and on welfare, which lefties demonize in the US as “the government is subsidizing Walmart by allowing them to pay lower wages while they collect welfare!” So is it good in Sweden, bad in the US, or what? The idea is to not create situations where people don’t have to give up $2 in welfare for 1$ of wages, hoping that gets more people working.

    Also may be worth noting that Sweden has a minimum wage of zero, versus higher minimum wages in the US. That may make it easier for low skilled workers to be employed, and get their foot onto the bottom rung of work, while in the US it is illegal to hire people who have a marginal utility that’s lower than the minimum wage.

    I’m sure people in NJ will be thrilled to pay Sweden’s top tax bracket of 62% on all incomes above about $90k in return for more state-run services.

  52. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Good points about Sweden. The old me would have supported high tax rate, not no more. It just kills motivation to work hard. So it has to kill economic growth. I just don’t see how it doesn’t.

    I also want to limit govt assistance in the form of welfare because it is simply destructive to long term growth as people lose motivation to take care of themselves. You want welfare, then tie some pointless crappy job to it. Let them dig a hole and cover it up, this way they can use that time to think of how to get out of this mundane task. Maybe they will come up with an invention that betters the world with their new found motivation to do something other than digging holes with their time.

    Just handing out assistance to survive with no strings attached does not work in the real world and why should it? You are supposed to fight for survival, it’s earned, not given.

    So I just don’t know if I can get on board with the Bernie/Cortez. Five years ago I would championed them, now they scare me.

    Anyone campaigning on giving away free stuff should be shot. Sending the wrong message. Nothing good will come from it.

  53. leftwing says:

    Separately watch CELG. When announced people sold into the pop pretty hard, likely more for portfolio reasons, taking it to nearly 80.

    That day the spread between it and BMY held around 40, deteriorated to about 36 by midday. I hopped into it around then, not at absolute low but around 82. Straight shares for the non-taxable account, wrote 65P/long 80C collar in the trading account.

    Wouldn’t hop in now at 87 but if it gets taken down in a market selloff may be worth a look again. I can’t recall the last time I bought the target in an M&A deal without expecting a topping bid but my logic for better or worse…

    The deal has a high probability of occurring for a bevy of reasons; it’s very accretive right away; and financing is committed with rapid deleveraging reducing balance sheet risk. Against this backdrop by purchasing CELG at 82 and getting 50 in cash I’m effectively buying BMY at 32 and that’s giving zero value to the CVR. BMY stock was trading at 46 at the time and 52 the day before. If the market liked BMY pre-deal at 52 and post-deal at 46, what’s not to like at 32 in a hyper-accretive high probability transaction?

    The main risk, obviously, is the deal breaks for some other reason. CELG will fall out of bed, and you’ll be lucky if the stock is down only 25%…That risk includes black swan type events like a hostile against BMY, of which there is some chatter.

    Overall, the risk adjusted return was there for me at 82. May be worth others’ radars. YMMV.

  54. Chicago says:

    Left: STZ is a falling knife, but the fundamentals are there. It has to hold 150-area

  55. The Original NJ ExPat says:

    I was lucky enough to already be long 1000 shares of CELG, I held. I let the day play out and bought 750 BMY late in the day @44.92. I’ve made a lot of money over the years adding and adding to a deal target, I may do so again. I usually only score one whale every other year or so.

    Separately watch CELG. When announced people sold into the pop pretty hard, likely more for portfolio reasons, taking it to nearly 80.

    That day the spread between it and BMY held around 40, deteriorated to about 36 by midday. I hopped into it around then, not at absolute low but around 82. Straight shares for the non-taxable account, wrote 65P/long 80C collar in the trading account.

  56. The Original NJ ExPat says:

    FYI, today I filled up my “Basket full of shorts” late afternoon and into the close (various inverse funds, some double and triple leveraged, plus TLT). I’m looking for a 2-4 day retracement to 2450 or so.

  57. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Even this clown is starting to realize it.

    “This rally is about a turn in the second half,” he said. “If you believe the trade war will simmer down, if you believe Fed Chief Jay Powell will hold off on raising interest rates — that he’ll make decisions based on the actual data like he told us last week — then the worldwide economic expansion can restart, and basic building blocks like Micron’s chips can make a comeback in pricing.”

    https://apple.news/AB7OJbQcoQJeQap_jAVERTA

  58. Blue Ribbon Teacher says:

    Nordic countries also have a low rate of corruption and haven’t been waging perpetual war with the middle east for the past 30 years. It also doesn’t hurt to have a homogenous population. The traditional marxist will hold up the Nordic countries as an example of the success of marxism…not realizing that their views on prices are completely capitalistic. You can have your little social safety nets…all you gotta do is get every person that is in US politics out, homogenize the population, and eliminate 90% of the military.

    Oh yeah…one more thing…..plug that trade deficit.

  59. The Great Pumpkin says:

    There’s no such thing as free, say it with me….there’s no such thing as free!!

Comments are closed.