Housing still looking good

From HousingWire:

Home sale prices increased over 5% in the last month

Home sale prices increased 5.2% year over year in November, according to a new report from Redfin.

Now, home sale prices are at a median of $311,600, the largest increase since July 2018, when home prices were up from 5.6% from 2018.

“Given that inventory is falling quickly, we’d expect to see even stronger price growth, especially when compared to last year’s soft market,” said Redfin Chief Economist Daryl Fairweather. 

“The fact that homes are selling faster indicates that there are buyers ready to pull the trigger and take advantage of low interest rates,” Fairweather added. “If lack of inventory and high demand continues, buyers who take a wait-and-see approach could face less favorable conditions in the spring season like bidding wars and faster price growth.”

Home price gains were the biggest in affordable metro areas. There were nine metro areas that saw the biggest gains below the national median for the fifth month in a row.

Homes that were sold in November also spent two fewer days on the market, compared to 2018. The typical home that sold in November went under contract in 45 days, compared to 47 days in November 2018.

The share of homes sold above list price also increased year over year, coming in at 20.7% in November compared to 19.9% a year earlier, Redfin said. 

The supply of homes for sale fell 12.1% year over year, which is the biggest decline since April 2013, and the fifth straight month of declines. There were fewer homes for sale last month than in any November since at least 2012, according to Redfin.

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41 Responses to Housing still looking good

  1. Mike says:

    Good Morning New Jersey

  2. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Wow, someone actually gets it. Most 101.5 readers are usually idiots.

    “I think 101.5 and other news sources look for click bait. They are constantly fueling the narrative that NJ is awful and our schools are over-funded.

    I think it is easy to attack schools and taxes because it is simple to understand. Do we ever question how a person earns money in the financial sector? No, because the average person doesn’t understand how their revenue is generated. However, take a look at the homes of people in the finance sector as compared to your local teacher. We pay the fees hidden in our investment portfolios and insurance plans without batting an eye…we never question a thing. But property taxes, through school budgets, are voted on and as a result, an easy target. Take the time to think about the services those taxes pay for. The quality of our schools.

    Also, stop saying the money could be saved through school consolidation. This has been found to be untrue time and time again. Our taxes are higher because we live in a more affluent area. As a result, pay has to reflect the cost of living.

    Do we ever get tired of this narrative that everyone is leaving NJ? This story is constantly recycled to fuel anger… it’s how they sell advertisements at 101.5 and other news sources. Let’s stop being click bait.”

  3. The Great Pumpkin says:

    “House pricing is a reflection of economic opportunities. It’s not rocket science. If the area offers cheap taxes and cheap homes, guess what? You prob can’t find a good paying job unless you are one of the lucky few in that location. That is why the housing is cheaper…the competition in that market for housing is reflective of what people make. So coming from a high earning state like nj and looking at cheap housing in the south as an opportunity is nothing more than an illusion. When you get there, you will realize quickly why the housing and everything is much cheaper…you are making significantly less.”

    “also, the parts of the country that are growing are often being propped up by retirement relocation. When the baby boom generation comes to an end, will these parts of the country be able to sustain?

    NYC is a major city in the world. What would this post look like if it was London, Paris, or Tokyo? Would you believe people would leave because of high taxes? Do you think people will abandon these other large world cities? NYC and the surrounding area will continue to attract. The further out suburbs may contract because young people want to live in vibrant metros.”

    “in a place with less opportunity. Also, people who live there expect a new house on a purchase. This makes used houses harder to sell. What happens when the baby boom generation dies off? What will they do with all of these houses being built in the south with limited job opportunities?”

  4. PatrioticHillbilly says:

    Speaking of college admissions. I just got done reading the excellent sheep book which does s great job of explaining the mentality of the current leadership class.

    Interesting insights to say the least. When the WASP model of leadership development including heredity was replaced by the current meritocratic model, the notion of public service for the greater good was lost, and a deep rooted entitlement mentality took over.

    When the current ivy leaguers reach power they think all the robbing and looting is theirs to take as compensation for all of the hoops they jumped through to get to the top. All the bullshlt these kids go through to get accepted to a college with a 9% acceptance rates leaves them entirely void of a meaningful existence.

    Blama is the poster child. Of course he was given preference a long the way so he doesn’t fit the exact scenario, but when he takes millions from Wall Street in exchange for not prosecuting anyone he genuinely thinks he deserves it. He “earned” it as another achievement.

    Anyone hoping for the greedy leadership mentality to change when boomers die off will be disappointed.

  5. ExEssex says:

    8:55 you really need to get your head out of your ass.

  6. Fast Eddie says:

    Blama is the poster child.

    I’ve said repeatedly that the transformation he ushered in was to sully the traditional methods of sacrifice and achievement, rendering it bleary, distorted and vague. Befuddle the masses, distract them, create clouded and murky lines of distinction so that the inferior masses can blend.

  7. PatrioticHillbilly says:

    Don’t shoot the messenger, it was written by a liberal academic…

  8. PatrioticHillbilly says:

    Eddie. they only care about diversity in superficial ways. Suggest to blama that some poor folks be allowed to visit his compound on Martha’s Vineyard so they can share the natural wonders and let me know what he says.

  9. The Great Pumpkin says:

    I was thinking about it some more, and these boomer retirement communities popping up are THE BIGGEST BUBBLE. When it pops, it’s going to pop.

    Think about it. Baby boomers are a huge population. Like lemmings they are all moving to the same locations and driving up real estate in places with not much economic opportunities besides servicing the boomer retirees. So they are the market. They are the drivers of manipulation in these markets. Artificially driving up these prices without any support coming behind this wave of retirees.

    Boomers don’t move to these locations and start families. So there are no legions of younger families creating babies to replace the waves of boomers that have saturated the local market.

    The boomers are flooding these areas with capital. When they die, the faucet turns off. Who the hell will replace their spending in these areas, never mind buy their real estate.

    There will be blood…

  10. JCer says:

    Pumpkin there are certain areas like Southern Florida, Palm Beach County and south and on the west coast the Naples area that will certainly continue to be economically viable.

    The tax code is a huge driver, my sister has multiple friends in their 40’s who have sold their businesses in NJ and moved to Florida with the proceeds. Once you are sitting on a pile of money or stock and aren’t economically tied to NJ it pays to live in Fl, no income tax a somewhat lower housing cost, lifestyle(beach, golf, warm weather). These people weren’t using public schools in NJ nor in FL so no difference there. In the summer when it is miserable in FL they take the kids and travel maybe they have a summer home at the Jersey Shore or in the Hamptons.

    What does happen in an economic crash is the home prices fall off a cliff and foreclosures spike tons of people have second or third homes down there and that is the first thing to go in an economic contraction. During the last housing crash my dad bought there house down there for 0.40 on the dollar from a plastic surgeon who had the house built 5 years earlier at a cost of $2m and was building a bigger $3m home in the same community. Today 8 years later the home is worth more than the original build cost. Down there it is crazy no different than it was in the 1920’s boom and bust is the model the economy is totally based on the wealthy using it as a playground.

    It’s driven by location, is it already a place of high wealth concentration? Is it located on the coast? Golf courses in a swamp are dead meat, once the boomers are gone it’s over, younger generations don’t play as much golf, those places are dreadful almost no one in our generation will want to be there.

  11. Juice Box says:

    re : those places are dreadful almost no one in our generation will want to be there.

    Especially since we now only have 10 years until it’s all underwater. There needs to be a 50% reduction in carbon dioxide output or it’s all kaput, there will be a 3.6-degree-Fahrenheit rise globally and a sea level rise of 1/2 a meter in our lifetimes so says the scientists….

    Even if the US went 100% renewalable by then it won’t matter much, the biggest polluter China with 28 percent of global CO2 emissions shows no signs of slowing down. India is a close second with the USA and will pass us soon as they are busy mining about 500 million tons of coal a year to produce electricity to build up their middle class.

  12. ExEssex says:

    10:16 I’ve always liked FL having lived their in the early nineties, but once you experience “no mosquitos” as is the case where we are in SoCal it kind of spoils you.
    That and the amazing landscapes out west.

  13. JCer says:

    Essex CA has great weather but frankly for the beach Palm Beach is MUCH better also the fishing is great. Bugs stink but in the winter with the massive amounts of pesticide they use Florida isn’t bad, I find Jersey in the summer to be worse, people here do not use the quantity of pesticide and we also have a fair amount of swamp.

  14. ExEssex says:

    Tell me about it. The beaches with just a few exceptions suuuuuuck here.
    No doubt about it. The waters cold too. Waves are good if you don’t mind the chill.
    The other thing I hate about FL is the politics. CA at least legalized weed.
    Thank G-d.

  15. JCer says:

    Juice something totally lost on virtue signaling SJW’s. First the projections and science are questionable, next just because we aren’t burning it doesn’t mean it will not be burned. It likely just gets sent somewhere it will be burned….

    There is no solution to global warming totally predicated on only reducing CO2 emissions. It is largely an unattainable goal and the end result is starvation for earth’s poorest people. Reduction is only part of the answer and we need to be smart about how we implement it minimize both economic and quality of life impacts. The real answer likely lies in carbon sequestration and geo-engineering. If we can make use of the hydrocarbons locally economically viable they will not go to places with literally no pollution controls… Removing carbon from the atmosphere and also reducing the earth’s temperature through other means is likely a solution to increasing temperature.

    This is recycling all over again, people wanted to feel good about their trash so they start recycling and third world countries took the waste and promptly threw it in the ocean…….The outcome was worse than just throwing it in the landfill, the answer to the issue of plastics is reducing the use and production of disposable plastics.

  16. chicagofinance says:

    common sense

    JCer says:
    December 26, 2019 at 12:23 pm
    The real answer likely lies in carbon sequestration and geo-engineering. If we can make use of the hydrocarbons locally economically viable they will not go to places with literally no pollution controls… Removing carbon from the atmosphere and also reducing the earth’s temperature through other means is likely a solution to increasing temperature.

    This is recycling all over again, people wanted to feel good about their trash so they start recycling and third world countries took the waste and promptly threw it in the ocean…….The outcome was worse than just throwing it in the landfill, the answer to the issue of plastics is reducing the use and production of disposable plastics.

  17. chicagofinance says:

    I figured you would have picked this one.

    ExEssex says:
    December 24, 2019 at 3:42 pm

  18. Fast Eddie says:

    …the answer to the issue of plastics is reducing the use and production of disposable plastics.

    It has begun and rightfully so. Not only that but it will spawn new industries and services as we return to reusable containers and products.

  19. chicagofinance says:

    Ex: Still the best is the shape of the netting in this video….

  20. Juice Box says:

    42 percent below the original ask? Sold for a $4 million dollar loss?

    “Yippee-ki-yay, Westchester.

    Bruce Willis and his wife, model and actress Emma Heming, have sold their nearly 9,000-square-foot mansion near Bedford Corners for $7.66 million, after cutting the asking price by more than 40 percent over the course of the year, according to the Wall Street Journal.

    The couple listed the 22-acre estate, at 340 Croton Lake Road in Mount Kisco, for $12.95 million in January with plans to relocate to the West Coast. By August, the asking price had been cut to just $7.49 million, 42 percent below the original ask.

    Still, the sale was one of the biggest recorded in Westchester County this year, according to Douglas Elliman. The firm’s Ann Cutbill Lenane, Nancy Strong and Stacey Oestreich had the listing.

    Willis and Heming bought the property for $12 million in 2014, and had been splitting time between Westchester and their Manhattan apartment.”

  21. The Great Pumpkin says:


    High end is a bubble right now. Anyhow, you don’t purchase 12 million dollar homes as an investment. You are expected to lose money at that quality of life. It’s for the filthy rich. You don’t buy some overly extravagant 13 bathroom house to be frugal with your money. Nah, that’s pure I don’t give a f’k money.

  22. The Great Pumpkin says:


    Def some areas might be spared, but Florida is a bloodbath waiting to happen. You said it, boom and bust economy. Maybe this time is different, but I wouldn’t bet on it. Arizona is screwed too. I would imagine parts of Carolina’s for sure as their economy has been surviving on northeast expats and their money.

  23. The Great Pumpkin says:

    What a time to be alive. Can you believe there are legions of people bitter over this economy? What a bunch of babies. Get your head out of your a$$ and enjoy the party before you miss it all together. Make that money!! There is no better time than now!!

    “The late-year bull market has seen the S&P 500 rise by 2.9 percent in December and by 29 percent for the year, putting it on the verge of posting best annual performance since 1997.

    Thursday’s market gains were paced by Amazon, which announced the 2019 holiday season was its best ever without offering specific numbers. Its stock price rose 3.1 percent, reaching a high of $1,850.18.

    Other factors driving the rally included continuing low unemployment and the announcement of a “phase one” trade agreement between the United States and China.”

  24. The Great Pumpkin says:

    But but but a recession is coming…save it for next year. I’ll be sure to ignore it again for the 8th year in a row.

  25. grim says:

    Florida is nice if you live in a place where you can completely insulate yourself from the rest of Florida.

  26. chicagofinance says:

    Ex: when I come here and all I see is spam posts and The Wayne in pain falls mainly in the plain…… my reaction is roughly…

  27. chicagofinance says:

    By the way….. I totally blew this album off because I was super busy in grad school, and I thought they were going off the deep end, but this song is REALLY GOOD.

  28. The Great Pumpkin says:

    My social media is lighting up with people having their first kids. It’s crazy. All people I thought that were not going the kid route. Lot of older 30’s or just turning 40. I know it’s anecdotal, but this makes me feel even more confident in my calls for the 2020’s economy. I never expected some of these people to have kids. All at the same time too. They are all going to need to build their family which will drive the economy.

  29. Blue Ribbon Teacher says:

    Met a woman yesterday who works inside the attorney general Gubir Grewal’s vicinity. Apparently, he does not engage in any conversations with any female at the workplace. He gives them orders through male proxies.

  30. Blue Ribbon Teacher says:

    It’s called the biological clock. It runs out at age 40 for women. It’s now or never.

  31. Blue Ribbon Teacher says:

    This is recycling all over again, people wanted to feel good about their trash so they start recycling and third world countries took the waste and promptly threw it in the ocean…….The outcome was worse than just throwing it in the landfill, the answer to the issue of plastics is reducing the use and production of disposable plastics.

    Based on what I’ve seen, we will have full scale industrial processes that break plastics down into raw materials 20 years down the road. This single serve plastic nonsense is going to be looked at as a dumb moment in history….just like leaded gasoline.

  32. Blue Ribbon Teacher says:

    I’m going to Disney for the 2nd time in 4 years. I think I’ve sent the state of florida more disposable income than NJ the past 4 years.

  33. xolepa says:

    I don’t know what parts of Florida you have been but it seems that you certainly haven’t been near my neck of the woods: city in Sarasota County, small town main street. Boutique shops. Beautiful in town residences. Minutes from multiple beaches. Funny thing is, I don’t see much riff raff here. They only work in the fast food joints off I75. Much less riffraff than Hunterdon County. Sometimes don’t see one for a whole week. The Home Depots and the like hire older geezers and the service is top-notch.

    I will be selling in Hunterdon in 2020 or 21. No more need for a large house here. My son’s house can accomodate us anyway as his even larger house in Montgomery has an
    in-law suite on the 1st floor. That’s until we settle for a low-tax district home in Jersey and become true snowbirds.

  34. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Xolepa…west coast is beautiful too. Same as jersey coast down central south coastline… try going 15 -20 miles inland at any of these locations (good luck). Difference in Florida, these areas take trash to another level. Some sickos attracted to no man’s land Florida.

  35. Blue Ribbon Teacher says:

    Not saying I enjoyed living in Florida the very brief time I did. But some things were different. I remember, at the supermarket, they carried your groceries out to your car and helped you load them in. Being from Bergen County, I was amazed by that.

  36. JCer says:

    Florida is nice to visit, I’m not sure about living there. The hospitals and medical care in general is substandard compared to NYC or really any major metro area, if you have a serious medical issue the likelihood is you’ll die down there they are really only experienced at caring for the elderly. The weather is unbearable 3-4 months a year and can potentially be bad for another 2-3 months. In general groceries are significantly more expensive and there are fewer options than in NJ. Other than that housing is cheaper, labor is cheaper, bars and restaurants are cheaper, the cost of living is significantly less even in wealthy areas than NJ. It is basically a 3rd world country where the wealthy all live within 5 miles of the coast and typically in walled and gated communities. Some of the rural areas are a bit scary, there are a lot of trailer parks and worse than that is West Palm Beach which has some super sketchy areas some of those city dwellers are downright scary.

  37. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Great advice if you are getting into real estate investing. Play it long term or don’t play it at all. Better off with stocks otherwise.

    “What works now vs what has always worked
    And with a new property cycle upon us, if history repeats itself, and it surely will, many investors will get it wrong.
    They will be looking for the type of investment that “works now” while sophisticated investors will only put their money into “what’s always worked.”
    Sure, next year there will be a new hotspo t which will become a future not spot .
    Yes, some regional locations will outperform the big capital cities while they take a breather, and some speculators will make money out of the next fad touted at the get rich quick seminars.
    But most property investors, will never develop the financial independence they deserve.
    In my mind property is a long-term investment and therefore my strategy doesn’t change because of short term changes in the economy or the markets.
    I’d only invest in the type of property that has always been a good investment, rather than one that “works now.”
    I know that location will do the bulk of the heavy lifting in my property’s performance, so I would only invest in high growth suburbs in our big 3 capital cities, knowing that their economic fundamentals, population growth and gentrification will underpin my property’s performance.
    Then, I would only buy an investment grade property – one that would be in continuous strong long-term demand by affluent owner occupiers and one with a high land to asset ratio.
    Property investing is dogged by dozens of different variables and although many property spruikers attempt to make it an exact science, the reality is, there will never be a ‘perfect’ time to invest or the ‘perfect’ property to buy.
    That said, there are some principles that can be applied whenever you consider investing in real estate, to ensure that you are as comfortable as possible and exposing yourself to the least amount of risk.”

  38. ExEssex says:

    When I was there I encountered two groups.
    Locals who are a very mixed bag and everyone else
    Who came from all over. There are many terrible jobs
    And a few solid companies in FL. Most people are underemployed.
    In 1993 they had a tax crisis and fired every untenured teacher in the State.
    They never recovered from that ‘educationally’ speaking and the schools
    are also a mixed bag. It’s cheap to live but the companies “pay in Sunshine”.
    I do know quite a few folks who stuck it out in FL and have had decent lives.

  39. The Great Pumpkin says:

    “Why does any of this matter? Or rather, why is it anything to be concerned about?

    I’m more than happy for the good times to roll. But you have to remember that markets are currently largely positioned for the opposite. They are positioned for a world in which interest rates never rise again. They are positioned for the “new normal”. They are positioned for “secular stagnation”.

    This is why money has flooded into ridiculous blue-sky nonsense pitched by charismatic salespeople – like WeWork, for example – while companies that make money in the here and now are mostly priced as though a recession is coming any second.

    The thing is this: what if the manufacturing cycle really does turn up, and China gets back on its feet? What if companies both in the UK and in the EU decide that they can get on with life now that a Brexit pathway is clearer? What if the US and China decide to rub along a little more closely?

    None of those things are deflationary or recessionary or even stagnation-ary. If global demand is greater than expected then that points to higher oil prices for a start. It also points to even more pressure on labour markets – whatever spare capacity we’ve still got will surely be deployed sharpish.

    I’m not saying that we’re definitely heading for a boom. But the chances of one happening are a lot higher than markets are currently pricing in.

    So what happens if it all goes right? It’ll mean big changes for markets, that’s for sure. Those who are betting that inflation is dead in the water, or who haven’t seen a developed nation with interest rates above 3% in their entire adult lifetime, might get quite a nasty shock.”

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