From NJ Spotlight:
NJ’s housing market is booming. How long will that last?
The pandemic brought with it a number of unexpected economic surprises, among them a booming housing market in much of New Jersey, with low inventory and intense competition among buyers often leading to bidding wars; average home prices are at the highest level in state history.
Contributing to the competitive real estate market, says Morris Davis, the Paul V. Profeta Chair at the Rutgers Business School, is that millennials are reaching the age when they’re starting families and looking for homes. Correspondent Joanna Gagis reports.
First
Can you not post Blumpy pron? His screen will be sticky. I love how it does not mention 2.5% 30 year or sub 2% 15 year as reason. It is the major reason for boom. If rates go back to 4% you will see drop off. With things opening up and people returning to office, I would expect suburban exit from city to subside. Feds won’t allow it though. Artificial pumping all around. People are overpaying for dumps.
See the part in the video towards the end where they state this will probably go on for 5 to 10 years? Who was saying this since 2012 on this blog?
“Contributing to the competitive real estate market, says Morris Davis, the Paul V. Profeta Chair at the Rutgers Business School, is that millennials are reaching the age when they’re starting families and looking for homes.”
Bystander,
Would you just accept that I made an amazing call for years despite being bashed by you guys over and over. I’m not the dummy…you don’t seem to understand this by now?
You are the biggest dipshit I have ever encountered on this blog. Not even close. You did not call anything..you did not call a major virus in 20202 that led to 0% rates and trillions of free money being handed out, no strings attached. Give me that scenario and any asset class would be pumped artificially…and they have.
LOL. Watch the video. Prices up +20% still a great time to buy. Housing boom will last 5 to 10 more years.
You still don’t get it…this housing boom was coming with or without the pandemic. You just don’t get it…
You had this huge buying bloc coming. Then you had builders not meeting housing supply for over 10 years. What did you guys think was going to happen? Crash?!
It really feels good to call a market that far out. Give me some props, but you won’t. It pains you, doesn’t it?
How’s that New York and San Francisco real estate you declared a buy 2 years ago looking?
I’ll wait for the reinforcements on this one. The whole thing is a slick production. Young dumb millennial girl, fake PC screen. Arrogant realtor douche bags too busy to take ear buds out. Middle age Sallies who just got their license. Huge proclamations “buy now. You home will be up huge” Sue Adler sponsored it…no doubt. Bubble folks..
A friend and former co-worker is now officially living in Florida, got top dollar for their home in Monmouth County, and cut the cord with NJ forever. Now working 100% remote, won’t be coming back for any time ever. Working for a Big Four firm, they aren’t opening new office in NYC. They are closing them and pitching the Fortune 500 to do the same, consolidate reduce footprint as it’s green to do so.
I would buy right now. It’s like taking candy from a baby. Two best cities on each coast artificially sapped by Covid pandemic.
You really don’t understand the cycles…but low..sell high.
BRT says:
March 3, 2021 at 2:45 pm
How’s that New York and San Francisco real estate you declared a buy 2 years ago looking?
The old move to Florida, the young move to the city.
I guarantee nyc metro becomes even stronger over the next 20 years.
Juice Box says:
March 3, 2021 at 3:03 pm
A friend and former co-worker is now officially living in Florida, got top dollar for their home in Monmouth County, and cut the cord with NJ forever. Now working 100% remote, won’t be coming back for any time ever. Working for a Big Four firm, they aren’t opening new office in NYC. They are closing them and pitching the Fortune 500 to do the same, consolidate reduce footprint as it’s green to do so.
Just watched the video $75,000 over ask for split levels in Morris County and it’s still a good time to buy!! Hahahahaha…Missy you should have gone into comedy!
Keep it going with this nonsense and I will get 50% more than I paid and then I am out!
NYC doesn’t need the offices, it just needs the “in” culture. I’m sorry, unless you like golfing, Florida has no soul in 99% of it. Keys and Miami about the only place with some culture…and it’s barely there. If you are old and rich, it’s perfect. For a young 20
Or 30 something, not that much out there.
Understand the nyc metro is the most powerful economic hub on this continent. It’s only going to grow and grow. Those prices will be cheap come 10 years from now.
Juice Box says:
March 3, 2021 at 3:10 pm
Just watched the video $75,000 over ask for split levels in Morris County and it’s still a good time to buy!! Hahahahaha…Missy you should have gone into comedy!
Keep it going with this nonsense and I will get 50% more than I paid and then I am out!
Sure pumps it’s different this time! The only thing you can “guarantee” in life Pumps is death and taxes.
And rising prices in real estate over time…
Over a long enough period of time, it will always be worth more than you originally paid for it. If you picked a smart location, it will be worth significantly more over time.
Gotta love house tour guides… not much effort needed to collect a check for opening the lock and walking through a house. They’ll tell you all about the potential, as if you’re a m0ron and don’t know what works for you.
Pumps over a long enough time we will all be dead too. I can guarantee that one death, whether your wife pushes you off a cliff while taking selfies, or you decide to eat too many bacon cheeseburgers and stroke out it’s coming and you cannot stop it.
What you can do is when your kid gets older is explain why the previous generations robbed the future blind with 28 Trillion in debt and counting. The last 25 Trillion over the last 20 years too. And Maybe just Maybe your kid will decide to keep you around a little longer instead of putting a pillow over your head while you are sleeping.
Pumps
This disruptive technology will take out your disruptive technology.
Company is run by the guy who invented the iPod and then founded Nest. Look at who the investors are too. And it is green and does not require rare earth minerals. They are planning on expanding into cars in 2 years.
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/firms-backed-robert-downey-jr-111359049.html
Hopefully she is a young over-achiever.
“just Maybe your kid will decide to keep you around a little longer instead of putting a pillow over your head”
check 52 seconds in “people needing more space” as they show a house literally pushed up against another. There is more room between Lizzo and a bag of Twinkies.
AARK down 16% in the last month as the Nasdaq has risen slightly. Tesla sure is a disruptor. A disruptor to capital gains.
BWAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA.
ARKK. I left off the last K for Kaboom!
BWAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA.
Nice easy read of the growth stock prospects we were having with anecdata.
https://akramsrazor.substack.com/p/the-covid-conundrum
Why you guys continue to engage the village idiot head on arguing details is beyond me…
“I guarantee nyc metro becomes even stronger over the next 20 years…Over a long enough period of time, it will always be worth more than you originally paid for it.”
Boom. There you have it. Thank you.
Five years ago I stopped responding to his ‘arguments’ directly because they were tautological…Yes, NYC will most definitely be more robust and nominally more expensive in twenty years…You know why?
Because over nearly every discrete 20 year period since solid records have been kept it has become so….population expansion, normal price inflation, limited supply…
The moron is predicting something with 99% certainty and then dislocating his shoulder patting himself on the back for brilliance.
Pumps, add to the following to your list of great calls…
“The sun will rise tomorrow…”
“Red will come up on the roulette wheel within 50 spins”
“I won’t win the Powerball today”
I’ll see you here in the morning. If it’s light outside and I’m a little more broke, well, you are downright genius.
Long term return of real estate on a net basis is 3%.
“The moron is predicting something with 99% certainty and then dislocating his shoulder patting himself on the back for brilliance.”
Hahaaha.
“Long term return of real estate on a net basis is 3%.”
Yup!
Hold, I don’t know if it is disruptive technology but if they can deliver on what they are doing they will make tons of money as everyone and their mother licenses the technology for use in their electric motors.
I fully expect the housing market to cool once some normalcy returns. People were losing it in their insufficient houses and apartments. Think about it they were trapped between rates being so low, needing the space, and not having anything else to spend money on buying a house seemed logical to people. As did buying vacation homes, people went crazy in places like VT, in killington skis condos were trading up 30-50% in price, people went nuts at the Jersey Shore, etc. Once you no longer are spending every waking minute at home, the appeal of sinking hard earned cash to either upgrade or buy a vacation home starts to fade.
Tesla has some headwinds it needs to work out, the loss of the tax credit hurts them. Other automakers are moving into their space, what happens when Toyota decides to dominate the electric car market? Tesla has great tech but they need to improve their product, quality control needs to improve and they need to refine their interiors more. Fundamentally as an electric car company how big is their lead?
It’s not about the electric car.
“Tesla stock price target more than doubled at UBS, as long-time skeptic sees EV leader ‘winning’ in software”
https://apple.news/AUWH4NkyURp2rVF0Zmj_Vpg
Lefty,
I called the housing market and economy 8 years out. Suck it. Tell me what we should expect in 2029?
It’s a long term bet…you have to be able to stomach the short term. Better off not even looking at it. How many times did Amazon lose 50% on its run up? How bout Tesla? The end game is what matters.
Libturd says:
March 3, 2021 at 4:06 pm
AARK down 16% in the last month as the Nasdaq has risen slightly. Tesla sure is a disruptor. A disruptor to capital gains.
BWAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA.
A big part of winning in investing is sometimes picking a plan and sticking to it. I’m not deviating from my ark plan.
I don’t know how any one in good conscience can cheer this housing madness on! Young people getting screwed! Two incomes to pay for the same house that not long could be carried by one income. And some say this is progress. And silly people paying to be close to NYC while for many it won’t matter, as there will be WFH permanently for thousands. As for NYC it continues its rapid decline, going back to a shitehole! The Fed destroying the economy, destroying future generations, and some people think it’s great.
Wood, whose $24.4 billion ARK Innovation exchange-traded fund is the largest actively managed ETF tracked by Lipper, said in a webinar her fund remains “opportunistic” despite the recent slide in the S&P 500 as investors have raised concerns over valuation and the prospect of higher inflation.
“The benchmarks are filling up with value traps” due to the pace of innovation in fields including artificial intelligence and robotics, Wood said. “We think the big risk is in the benchmarks, not what we’re doing.”
https://apple.news/AlCP8CQhyQYi4u7oah6MH3Q
Yup.
“ARK Invest founder and chief investment officer Cathie Wood reiterated her bullish position on Tesla and bitcoin on Wednesday while warning that the growth of digital wallets will “gut” traditional banks.”
I’m such a bull on bitcoin, I’m going to pay Cathie to pay Graystone to hold it for me.
Juice: It is different this time in that it’s worse! As for NYC,it’s days over dominance are over. Just wait and see what corporate America is doing with WFH. The madness in my town is continuing right now, as evidenced by a listing that just came on, un dormered cape being listed as 3 bedroom, the two upstairs bedrooms have a partition separating one side from the other. It has one bathroom, and a tiny kitchen, but don’t worry they finished the basements and put another kitchen down there! All yours for 525,000.00 Bring your decorating ideas! Hurry, hurry!!
3b,
Should have bought when I told you to.
So today is my WFH anniversary. 3/2/20 was the last time I was in the office. To be honest I’m not in a rush to go back and I’m out until summer at least.
At that point I think they will suggest 1 -2 days a week at a hot desk. I’ll plan to go in one morning a week to show my face and then spend my lunchtime driving home.
Would have been paying low rates to leverage the banks money into an investment that was easy for the taking.
Cathie Wood – digital wallets will “gut” traditional banks.
Lol, Lol and Lol..
We are almost there folks……
Pumps: Already own a property, and have told you that repeatedly.
#B – nothing wrong with permabulls, except for the ones that jump from roofs.
That money from commercial will go directly into residential driving it up.
“Jones Lang LaSalle Inc. , a major player in office leasing and management, is moving into the red-hot market for rental homes.
The commercial property giant known as JLL has struck a pact with Roofstock, which manages rental properties for big investors and operates an online marketplace on which income-producing single-family homes trade.”
https://apple.news/AKhzJaoNTRq-PV8SvLNTK_w
Rental homes have been a hot investment since last decade’s foreclosure crisis, which made millions of U.S. homes available to investors for rock-bottom prices and created droves of renters. Advances in mobile technology and cloud computing enabled what had always been a local business to be administered from afar.
In the ensuing years, landlording gained popularity among investors large and small, who struggled to find steady returns on other investments given historically low interest rates.
The pandemic added allure when big home-rental firms reported record occupancy and steady rent collection despite the economic shutdown. Suburban rents shot up as the work-from-home crowd sought space for home offices and yards for children and dogs. A new crop of big investors, including those who had previously focused on now-shaky corners of the property market, shifted billions to buy rental houses. Many built houses expressly to rent.
“It’s a pretty resilient income play,” said Richard Bloxam, who leads JLL’s capital markets business. “The ability to collect rent in 2020 was very high.”
Besides the consistency of the American rent payer, owning houses allows investors to spread out risk across many assets and in different parts of the country, he said.
If you don’t own, do your future self a favor and buy ASAP. They are going to corner the market. 3b, getting his wish. All that commercial money will go chasing residential rent now. Enjoy.
“Executives said they expect the deal to result in more international investors buying U.S. rental homes and to create the opportunity for Roofstock to open rental-home markets where JLL operates abroad.
Stessa, the asset-management platform that Roofstock is acquiring, allows mom-and-pop real-estate investors to track and size up the performance of their holdings. “These investors have been limited historically about what they know about the market,” said Yishai Lerner, co-head of JLL’s technology group.
JLL, based in Chicago, has previously branched into industrial properties and apartments. It also expanded in asset management and in its capital markets business, selling and financing commercial property.
Lately the firm has been a popular pick among investors looking to play the economy’s reopening. Its shares have shot up 95% since late September. J.P. Morgan analysts said they expect the firm’s earnings to return to pre-pandemic levels while it will continue to benefit from the cost cuts and investments it has made recently.
“There are long-term trends that should benefit the larger commercial real-estate service companies, namely the trend toward outsourcing of corporate real estate and the institutionalization of real-estate investing,” that bank’s analysts wrote in a note to clients.”
Hate me or not, but acknowledge that the play is to leverage a deal in nyc right now. Then sit on it till the next wave comes. Just have patience. Nyc is the best real estate in the game. It’s the most important and valuable. Why not buy when it’s not cool to?
Toronto Home Prices Hit C$1 Million With Bidding Wars Picking Up
By Ari Altstedter ,
Aerials Views Of Toronto As Housing Prices Fall For Fourth Month
Photographer: James MacDonald/Bloomberg
The average price of a home sold in Toronto breached C$1 million for the first time in February, with gains accelerating in the suburbs around Canada’s largest city.
In Toronto, a stay-at-home order is still in effect and demand for upgraded living space appears to be growing. Ground-level homes in the suburbs were the drivers of February’s price gains. Detached homes in the 905 area code, which surrounds the city of Toronto, rose 27.8% to C$1.3 million.
But the market is getting so frenzied it’s even bringing life to the downtown condo market that has been hardest hit by the flight to bigger homes. Though average condo prices were still down in February, that segment led the way in sales growth, with transactions surging 64% as bargain hunters piled in, the data show.
“In the absence of a marked uptick in inventory, the current relationship between demand and supply supports continued double-digit average home price growth this year,” the real estate board’s chief market analyst, Jason Mercer, commented in the report.
“If we continue to see growth in condo sales outstrip growth in new condo listings in Toronto, renewed price growth in this market segment is a distinct possibility in the second half of the year.”
What’s that in real money?
In his latest column for Forbes, Warburg Realty founder Frederick Peters explained that deal flow often hinges on the seller’s expectations, even in the hottest of markets. “As soon as prices stray outside the narrow band in which buyers feel comfortable making offers, the property stagnates,” he said.
Peters opined that an increase in sales volume in recent weeks points to New York’s real estate scene having a busy spring, but cautioned that quality inventory remains the biggest hurdle.
“The accelerating pace of sales means that, as more properties go into contract, inventory levels go down,” he said. “Popular locations already display a lack of good product which leaves many buyers frustrated. As more and more people enter the market, this lack of property could increase, tilting New York back towards market equilibrium.”
Someone needs lithium.
Even he is joining the show
“Charles Koch Is Betting Big on Distressed Real Estate
His company’s property arm is able to quickly move on projects that might be too expensive or complicated for others”
https://apple.news/AD6BUZYcaSkmuA6o2DWzzzw
Yep! Hysteria in real estate, but it will all be fine, right? Because this time is different. It certainly is ! It’s worse!
The Hot housing market . . . .
I posted about the house linked below. It was asking $488k, and it went for $535k.
https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/75-Stockton-St-Hillsdale-NJ-07642/37937564_zpid/
You know what we didn’t have last time besides a legitimate economic power in China?
https://tinyurl.com/Didnt-have-this-last-time
Those numbers on the right are in TRILLIONS
Quantitative easing may cause higher inflation than desired if the amount of easing required is overestimated and too much money is created by the purchase of liquid assets.
Lib,
China has a demographic growth time bomb. We don’t even have to do anything, they will destroy themselves with the demographic ticking time bomb. Good luck with the deflationary spiral as your population stops growing.
China’s time already has peaked for this cycle, it just doesn’t realize it yet like most.
The low, low interest rates for mortgages . . .
For those of you guys who bought your homes years or decades ago, here is the math being presented to homebuyers right now. I’ll use round numbers which are in the ballpark of the house I just linked above in Hillsdale, NJ.
Today, people with good credit can get 3% interest rates or slightly lower for 30-year fixed mortgages. Also, for first time home buyers, you can put as low as 3% down. Also, you’ll get approved for an astronomical amount of money if you have consistent income. $100k=$500k mortgage approval.
All this leads to ambivalence about exactly how much you pay, in my opinion. What’s $50k more or less – it’s $200 per month on the monthly payment.
$500k purchase price:
$15k down payment
$20k closing costs
Monthly payment: $2,045 for the mortgage and interest
$550k purchase price:
$16.5k down payment
$20k closing costs
Monthly payment: $2,249 for the mortgage and interest
In NJ, with property tax and insurance, you’re looking at like $3300 or $3500 per month. If the couple earns $100k or $120k or so, it’s do-able either way if you assume that the $120k per year will be stable (big assumption, to me, for most people).
So, the hurdle to get the keys for a house today is tiny. Put up $30-40k. If you feel like your income and marital situation will be stable for 10-20 years or so, the difference between paying $500k and $550k can seem very small. I get it, though, obviously paying back that marginal $50k is $50k more post-tax you need to earn, and $50k less for going fishing, saving for kids’ college education etc and it is stomach-sickening when you imagine the opportunity cost of investing at 7% annualized though. Flippers must be doing very well right now because they have a keen eye on the marginal $50k, but the buyers do not.
I don’t think this momentum collapses on pricing concerns. I think it has to be interest rates rising.
leverage a deal in NYC?
Pumps you cannot even get the credit to buy a 1.5 million dollar shoebox in Manhattan. I know plenty of people who work on Wall St that thank the stars they don’t have to deal with it anymore and have moved on, former renters who don’t have to compete there because they are now gone to the burbs. They can do their jobs remotely better.
I doubt your circle of friends has more than one rung, you have no first hand experience to share on Manhattan other than perhaps going to see the Lion King and eating at a slop shop in the theater district. Claim you do and prove me wrong…….
crushed…apparently they are all doing appraisal waivers now to push the mortgages through.
$1.5m shoebox in Manhattan . . .
I linked one below (2 bedroom, 2 bath on Amsterdam and 76th in the UWS). Good layout. However, from the windows, I’m not sure if this faces toward a courtyard rather than street-facing. I’d imagine anyone trying to buy “while there is blood in the streets” would be looking to offer $1.5m or less to their $1.9m ask.
Pumpkin, I believe traditionally lenders would want 35% down for a 15-year mortgage on a rental property like this (so, around $500k), but I know some lenders were certainly doing 20% down and 30 year terms for rental property pre-covid. If so, you’d be putting up like $300k to get the keys. I’m not looking too closely, but I think this apartment goes for $5k or $6k per month in rent. I think those ratios sound ok if one is a big NYC real estate bull.
https://streeteasy.com/building/the-harrison-205-west-76th-street-new_york/8l
Crushed: it will be a combination of pricing and interest rates. Also throw in cost of day care, even with WFH. Car loans/ leases, student loans , and other assorted costs. And assume property tax increases every year. As an aside , your number for closing costs appears high.
Stupidity Chapter XXI calTrans bought a ton of houses in the seventies to make way for freeway expansion. That never happened. They’ve been sitting on these slowly crumbling properties for decades the City wants to lease them for homelessness .
Also 5 percent down mortgages are still happening.
Details here: https://www.pasadenastarnews.com/ghost-town-vacancies-and-evictions-on-the-rise-in-the-caltrans-owned-710-corridor-homes-in-pasadena-south-pasadena-and-el-sereno
crushed & 3b – The mania in NYC is gone completely. Jesus RENT TO OWN is for the rednecks in Trailer Parks not Manhattan….
Only been for sale for 617 days in lovely Murray Hill . . .
Haha, would have loved this apartment when I was 22 years old. Indeed, if God or the government gave me a million dollars at that age but mandated that I spend it all only on a personal residence, this apartment would have been a prime contender. (2 Bed, 1 Bath for $1m on 3rd Ave and 38th St.)
https://streeteasy.com/building/155-east-38-street-new_york/11k
Juice: In all the years I have never seen that, rent to own in Manhattan!
“I don’t think this momentum collapses on pricing concerns. I think it has to be interest rates rising.”
Good analysis crushed. Run the numbers on interest rates, same marginal effect….
Housing goes boom when inflation gets out of control…the only time proven way to rein in inflation is slamming on the breaks and forcing a recession. Basically drive the car into the wall to stop it.
8:45 it’s great for younger buyers. I give them credit for being creative.
Rent-to-Own…Lay-a-way…..
Wood not only was unfazed, having bought the dip on Tesla during the correction, but apparently had a “very comfortable” week as her long-held views on the bond market and ETF liquidity played out.
“The volatility in the bond market is beginning to outpace that in the equity market,” Wood said in an “In the Know” webinar on Friday. “And I think one reason for that is bonds have been in a bubble and the search for yield became extreme.”
She added that short-term traders had been placing record bets against the bond market and that there was simply “too much bearishness out there.”
As for the equities market, despite the pressure of rising interest rates on long-duration growth stocks and the continued rotation into value and cyclical stocks, Wood said she believes the bull market is alive and well.
“The bull market is broadening out to other sectors, and that can only be a good thing for us,” she said. “What would be very negative for innovation-based strategies is if the market continued to narrow so that only innovation strategies worked, because that’s what happened during the tech and telecom bubble.”
Walls of worries in the market
Still, investors have to climb the walls of worries over whether Ark can sustain its head-turning success last year. Wood sought to address the three biggest worries she saw in the market.
She first dived into the crypto space, given bitcoin’s wild swings last week after Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen called it an “extremely inefficient way of conducting transactions” and warned investors of losses from trading the “highly speculative asset.”
“She doesn’t understand the crypto space. And I say this with all due respect, I just don’t think it is what she does,” Wood said. “She’s responding to a movement in price, that I understand, which has been very rapid.”
Bitcoin surged from $20,000 in mid-December to as high as $58,000 in February before dropping back to just over $49,000 on Monday.
Wood said that, according to Ark’s research, the energy used to mine bitcoin was actually a fraction of the energy needed to mine gold.
On a broader scale, Wood said, the bitcoin blockchain and other blockchains would enable much more rapid settlement of trades and transactions than the traditional financial institutions.
“Think about the energy consumption of the traditional financial world,” she said. “What bitcoin is using in terms of energy right now, which is mostly renewable, hardly measures up at all to that.”
Another worry is the effect of rising interest rates on price-to-earnings ratios, which is believed to be what drove down high-multiple stocks last week.
Wood said she had observed that as inflation and interest rates fell over the past decade, S&P multiples tended to hit a ceiling in the 20 to 25 times multiple range. That meant the market corrected every time multiples hit that range.
However, she said she believed the structural growth in the economy had slipped from 4% to 5% to 2% to 3%. If investors bake in this normalized growth rate instead, there should be “serious valuation support,” especially for companies that are able to grow rapidly over the next few years, she said.
ETF-liquidity concerns
Wood has also seen a lot of worries about liquidity in the ETF space.
Specifically, analysts have raised concerns over Ark ETFs’ outsized ownership of several small-cap companies whose shares are fairly illiquid and could be hard to exit if investors redeem in droves.
To counter that, Wood invoked the liquidity of bond ETFs during the bond crisis in 2008 and 2009, during which bond ETFs were providing liquidity even though the underlying bond market stopped functioning.
A lot of investors were “very fearful and just wanted to get their money out of bond funds,” she said. “And the only liquidity provider out there during that time were the market makers and authorized participants in the ETF space who made markets.”
That bond ETFs provided price discovery as the underlying bonds were not even trading should help alleviate investors’ liquidity concerns, Wood said, because the equity world is much more liquid.
“A portfolio manager in the ETF space does not have to worry about flows. It’s the market makers, the authorized participants; it is the ETF ecosystem that is accommodating the activity,” she said. “I’m just making investment decisions.”
What happens after the tech rout
Markets recovered quickly on Monday, with the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq rallying 2.38% and 2.89%.
Over the long term, Wood sees major deflationary forces evolving in the global economy despite the broader market view that massive global monetary-policy easing will ignite inflation.
She said this inflation-centric point of view would be “in a dueling match with the two deflationary forces,” good deflation and bad deflation.
“The good deflation has to do with technologically enabled innovation. It is deflationary by nature,” she said. “It rides down cost curves, gains efficiency, gains productivity.”
The bad deflation is associated with companies that have leveraged up to buy back their shares and pay dividends, Wood said, pointing to IBM and General Electric as examples.
“What’s going to happen now, we believe, is they are going to be forced to cut prices in order to service their debt,” she said.
Wood said these two “powerful deflationary forces” were what had kept inflation at bay since the 2008 financial crisis and would likely continue doing so against the inflationary forces brought on by global monetary easing.
Still, investors have to climb the walls of worries over whether Ark can sustain its head-turning success last year. Wood sought to address the three biggest worries she saw in the market.
She first dived into the crypto space, given bitcoin’s wild swings last week after Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen called it an “extremely inefficient way of conducting transactions” and warned investors of losses from trading the “highly speculative asset.”
“She doesn’t understand the crypto space. And I say this with all due respect, I just don’t think it is what she does,” Wood said. “She’s responding to a movement in price, that I understand, which has been very rapid.”
Bitcoin surged from $20,000 in mid-December to as high as $58,000 in February before dropping back to just over $49,000 on Monday.
Wood said that, according to Ark’s research, the energy used to mine bitcoin was actually a fraction of the energy needed to mine gold.
On a broader scale, Wood said, the bitcoin blockchain and other blockchains would enable much more rapid settlement of trades and transactions than the traditional financial institutions.
“Think about the energy consumption of the traditional financial world,” she said. “What bitcoin is using in terms of energy right now, which is mostly renewable, hardly measures up at all to that.”
Another worry is the effect of rising interest rates on price-to-earnings ratios, which is believed to be what drove down high-multiple stocks last week.
Wood said she had observed that as inflation and interest rates fell over the past decade, S&P multiples tended to hit a ceiling in the 20 to 25 times multiple range. That meant the market corrected every time multiples hit that range.
However, she said she believed the structural growth in the economy had slipped from 4% to 5% to 2% to 3%. If investors bake in this normalized growth rate instead, there should be “serious valuation support,” especially for companies that are able to grow rapidly over the next few years, she said.
ETF-liquidity concerns
Wood has also seen a lot of worries about liquidity in the ETF space.
Specifically, analysts have raised concerns over Ark ETFs’ outsized ownership of several small-cap companies whose shares are fairly illiquid and could be hard to exit if investors redeem in droves.
To counter that, Wood invoked the liquidity of bond ETFs during the bond crisis in 2008 and 2009, during which bond ETFs were providing liquidity even though the underlying bond market stopped functioning.
A lot of investors were “very fearful and just wanted to get their money out of bond funds,” she said. “And the only liquidity provider out there during that time were the market makers and authorized participants in the ETF space who made markets.”
That bond ETFs provided price discovery as the underlying bonds were not even trading should help alleviate investors’ liquidity concerns, Wood said, because the equity world is much more liquid.
“A portfolio manager in the ETF space does not have to worry about flows. It’s the market makers, the authorized participants; it is the ETF ecosystem that is accommodating the activity,” she said. “I’m just making investment decisions.”
What happens after the tech rout
Markets recovered quickly on Monday, with the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq rallying 2.38% and 2.89%.
Over the long term, Wood sees major deflationary forces evolving in the global economy despite the broader market view that massive global monetary-policy easing will ignite inflation.
She said this inflation-centric point of view would be “in a dueling match with the two deflationary forces,” good deflation and bad deflation.
“The good deflation has to do with technologically enabled innovation. It is deflationary by nature,” she said. “It rides down cost curves, gains efficiency, gains productivity.”
The bad deflation is associated with companies that have leveraged up to buy back their shares and pay dividends, Wood said, pointing to IBM and General Electric as examples.
“What’s going to happen now, we believe, is they are going to be forced to cut prices in order to service their debt,” she said.
Wood said these two “powerful deflationary forces” were what had kept inflation at bay since the 2008 financial crisis and would likely continue doing so against the inflationary forces brought on by global monetary easing.
Still, investors have to climb the walls of worries over whether Ark can sustain its head-turning success last year. Wood sought to address the three biggest worries she saw in the market.
She first dived into the crypto space, given bitcoin’s wild swings last week after Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen called it an “extremely inefficient way of conducting transactions” and warned investors of losses from trading the “highly speculative asset.”
“She doesn’t understand the crypto space. And I say this with all due respect, I just don’t think it is what she does,” Wood said. “She’s responding to a movement in price, that I understand, which has been very rapid.”
Bitcoin surged from $20,000 in mid-December to as high as $58,000 in February before dropping back to just over $49,000 on Monday.
Wood said that, according to Ark’s research, the energy used to mine bitcoin was actually a fraction of the energy needed to mine gold.
On a broader scale, Wood said, the bitcoin blockchain and other blockchains would enable much more rapid settlement of trades and transactions than the traditional financial institutions.
“Think about the energy consumption of the traditional financial world,” she said. “What bitcoin is using in terms of energy right now, which is mostly renewable, hardly measures up at all to that.”
Another worry is the effect of rising interest rates on price-to-earnings ratios, which is believed to be what drove down high-multiple stocks last week.
Wood said she had observed that as inflation and interest rates fell over the past decade, S&P multiples tended to hit a ceiling in the 20 to 25 times multiple range. That meant the market corrected every time multiples hit that range.
However, she said she believed the structural growth in the economy had slipped from 4% to 5% to 2% to 3%. If investors bake in this normalized growth rate instead, there should be “serious valuation support,” especially for companies that are able to grow rapidly over the next few years, she said.
Wood has also seen a lot of worries about liquidity in the ETF space.
Specifically, analysts have raised concerns over Ark ETFs’ outsized ownership of several small-cap companies whose shares are fairly illiquid and could be hard to exit if investors redeem in droves.
To counter that, Wood invoked the liquidity of bond ETFs during the bond crisis in 2008 and 2009, during which bond ETFs were providing liquidity even though the underlying bond market stopped functioning.
A lot of investors were “very fearful and just wanted to get their money out of bond funds,” she said. “And the only liquidity provider out there during that time were the market makers and authorized participants in the ETF space who made markets.”
That bond ETFs provided price discovery as the underlying bonds were not even trading should help alleviate investors’ liquidity concerns, Wood said, because the equity world is much more liquid.
“A portfolio manager in the ETF space does not have to worry about flows. It’s the market makers, the authorized participants; it is the ETF ecosystem that is accommodating the activity,” she said. “I’m just making investment decisions.”
I think the reason Pumps hates Florida so much is that the teachers unions aren’t so strong there so they get paid like average people, don’t get awesome pensions. Plus Pumpkin might suck at golf.
If you’re over 50, have money, and are competent at golf and/or tennis, it can be very nice.
As for culture, I’ve already noticed that Sarasota has fine museums, an Opera House and theaters, lots of nice restaurants, and a World Series level baseball team that’s an easier drive than the NYC statiums. And for your once in ten year visits to the Met museum for your alleged culture, a direct flight is easy.
Yes, traditionally Florida hasn’t been a great place to start a career for a lot of industries. That might change over time.
“BRT says: I’m such a bull on bitcoin, I’m going to pay Cathie to pay Graystone to hold it for me.”
Dude, just go for the three-fer…
https://twitter.com/Keubiko/status/1366506025017368577
Pumps : crypto crushes banks, but you want to bet on NYC real estate long-term. I don’t see both those outcomes on the same branch of the decision tree.
I don’t hate Florida; I just don’t imagine it to be something it’s not. It’s a place to go on vacation and a place for the rich, but it’s not a place for the avg person to raise their family or start a career.
It’s fun for spring break for the youth, but not if you have to live there.
“Lefty, I called the housing market and economy 8 years out. Suck it. Tell me what we should expect in 2029?”
Dumbfcuk, you’re so brilliant you tell me.
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/GDP
Look at any eight year period. Shouldn’t be that hard…lol.
Don’t worry, we’ll all still respect you for predicting sunrise in nine hours. Good call!
The city will outlive whatever industry is there now. The city adapts faster than anywhere else.
Chicago says:
March 3, 2021 at 9:54 pm
Pumps : crypto crushes banks, but you want to bet on NYC real estate long-term. I don’t see both those outcomes on the same branch of the decision tree.
Not one person was calling for a housing boom starting in 2019 back in 2012 except me. I was the only one calling for a return of the labor market in 2013 before it hit its lowest levels in decades. I was the only one calling for a roaring 20’s 2.0 which has become so prevalent now.
leftwing says:
March 3, 2021 at 9:59 pm
“Lefty, I called the housing market and economy 8 years out. Suck it. Tell me what we should expect in 2029?”
Dumbfcuk, you’re so brilliant you tell me.
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/GDP
Look at any eight year period. Shouldn’t be that hard…lol.
Don’t worry, we’ll all still respect you for predicting sunrise in nine hours. Good call!
9:28 Sarasota is a lovely place. St Pete is nice too.
My first job was working in FL for a $700m Tech Distributor.
Company is now $38B firm. Firm launched hundreds of careers.
9:56 while it might seem like everyone is on vacation I know FL very very well and can assure you there are plenty of middle class people living and working there. Overall numbers lean toward hospitality but there is a lot of Tech there. IBM once had a big operation near Boca Raton, lots of ex-IBMers who made their living there post-IBM as Business Partners. I worked for one as their Chicago-land rep.
If anyone is into retro, I like their stuff. Anyone ever hear of them?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aLnZ1NQm2uk
Federal Reserve.
IBM began as the Computing-Tabulating-Recording Co. (C-T-R), a corporation composed of three companies that manufactured tabulating machines, scales, and time recorders. In 1914, Thomas J. Watson Sr. joined C-T-R as general manager. He became president in 1915 and C-T-R was renamed IBM shortly afterward. The three companies which merged in 1911 to form C-T-R included The Computing Scale Co. and the International Time Recording Co.. Dr. Herman Hollerith founded the third company, The Tabulating Machine Co. in 1896 after devising a series of electrical machines that processed data stored on punch cards. These machines reduced tabulation time for the 1890 U.S. Census from seven to three years. The tabulating machine can be considered a grandfather of today’s computer.
https://www.bocahistory.org/our-history-ibm/
Staff that began with 400 employees, peaked around 10,000 employees in 1985 and remained at approximately 1,500 since the late 1980
Thank you for clearing that up. I originally thought you were simply naive and not well considered.
The Great Pumpkin says:
March 3, 2021 at 9:59 pm
The city will outlive whatever industry is there now. The city adapts faster than anywhere else.
Chicago says:
March 3, 2021 at 9:54 pm
Pumps : crypto crushes banks, but you want to bet on NYC real estate long-term. I don’t see both those outcomes on the same branch of the decision tree.
interesting times, I think we will either see the demise or big recovery of ARKK. I can stand listening Wood, but honestly her youngster analysts like Tasha when listening about Bitcoin as a payment for SFD robotaxis made by TSLA makes me sick. They bullshit too much to a religion level.
They keep saying data collected for TSLA, AI chip being made and on and on. Being in the industry they truly lack people that can leverage any of that. Their top IC design lead left long time ago. This level of BS’ing makes me crazy. If she were to move to more stable tech, I’d understand but her last moves in recent weeks are terrible for risk management.
The city will outlive whatever industry is there now. The city adapts faster than anywhere else.
You’re right, it adapted very quickly to bail reform and no prosecution.
Phoenix, I saw them in concert at PNC along with Straight No Chaser. Great show. Got the tickets for free from a class action lawsuit.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tgC-vZp07YM&ab_channel=RichardRommer
Which part of comprehension causes you difficulty? The reading or the graphs?
I saw she sold some Taiwan semiconductor. I guess she doesn’t like skyrocketing revenue in the face of a worldwide shortage.
Coupla tings.
Did my BIL’s taxes tonight. Lucky MFer. Makes so little in his government job that the massive stock gains I made him last year were taxed at 0%. Of course, he got stimulus checks to boot.
More importantly, there is a question on the tax form about your possession of virtual currency. Hmmmmmmm.
I’ve probably spent more time in Florida than anyone else here. Besides the humidity in the Summer, it’s really not that different than here. Well, besides the lack of good pizza and bagels. The variety of cultures you can experience there is much more varied than in the northeast. Of course, the tax situation down there is lightyears better than up here and the infrastructure is much newer. Plus, no snow. Also, people are generally friendlier in the south.
Also,
Market futures look pretty sh1tty again. Woo hoo!
BRT,
One thing I pay for is YouTube Red. It’s worth every dime to me. So many things on there have been around for years never knew they exist like this conglomerate, it’s not really a band. Each song is so different yet the talent is amazing. Glad to hear they put on a good show.
Also, it appears my school district is going to attempt a full time start finally. See what happens.
Annie,
Ahh, good memories. Once upon a time I did a stint as a parking attendant, URIS theatre, Andrea McArdle was Annie. She was really nice. It was such a fun and profitable job-all parking was underground. When you went to get the cars, you slid down firepoles from level to level. Super fast to get customer cars, and massive cash tips.
To be young again…
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Yup, Punkin’s a genius!!
https://www.pexels.com/photo/calm-water-with-sun-and-orange-sky-1631678/
The Weekly Unemployment Claims report is out today. So what.
Post Modern Jukebox, I only remember bands by what I have to feed them- Vegan/soy free/gluten free/low carb. March 8 will be one year since the Basie closed. They’ve opened with a 150 person audience limit (10%), mostly local acts and comedians. No more elaborate backstage catering, artists are receiving a buyout and are on their own to find takeout. I wonder if we go back to the way it was before the pandemic. Backstage hospitality was a big hit to the bottom line as it is the promoter’s expense.
Leftwing,
The-covid-conundrum article you posted yesterday should prove to be prescient. It’s where I stand ignoring the final pants-up demand that will be caused by the majority escaping their caves. The question that remains, is how forward looking are the markets? IMO, there will be one final run up (and it will be straight up), before the SHTF. Timing wise, I would guess between the Summer and Winter we’ll see it.
BTW, your investment style and articles posted remind me a hell of a lot of the recently deceased ExPat. I don’t remember. Did you two get along?
Rutroh – That power company TESLA sales must be down…
Tesla saw its share of the electric vehicle market shrink from 81% in February ’20 to 69% in February ’21. Tesla still commands 69% of the market share but shows how Ford’s electric SUV is attracting EV buyers who would’ve bought a Tesla
Hey Brandon and Greg – meet Blumpy. He has ARK to sell you. Expect a 50% return..of your principal, that is.
Lib,
What’s so good about no income tax when your income is so low? The avg person makes no money in Florida because the pay is so low and opportunities for good jobs scarce.
That place basically lives off rich retirees and tourists. It takes a big dump on the avg person living there. It basically spends as little money as it can on education. Screwing the avg family over. It attracts legions of the losers from other states, again screwing over the avg family that can’t live in a gated community. It then makes the avg family service the rich, tourists, and old people that come to Florida to die.
That’s the real Florida.
Covid vaccine rollout in NJ . . .
There is much for which it is reasonable to be critical of the Murphy administration. However, NJ is currently among the ten states in the nation in the metric of percentage of doses of vaccine used. NJ’s utilitization is at 80.9%. Kudos to the Murphy administration for getting this number up high.
https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/covid-vaccine-tracker-global-distribution/
If my wife and I decided to pick up and move to Florida right now, would it be a good financial move?
Even with no income tax, hell no. High nj property taxes will also just get eaten up by private school. Then I have to buy a home in a nice community, which will cost more money than in nj.
They are knee deep in analyzing future trends. We can call it bs, but they see the world differently than us. I was wrong about Bitcoin and Tesla for a long long time. I manned up, accepted I was wrong, and took the L. Now, I’m just going with the people that no more than me about disruptive trends.
njtownhomer says:
March 3, 2021 at 10:43 pm
interesting times, I think we will either see the demise or big recovery of ARKK. I can stand listening Wood, but honestly her youngster analysts like Tasha when listening about Bitcoin as a payment for SFD robotaxis made by TSLA makes me sick. They bullshit too much to a religion level.
They keep saying data collected for TSLA, AI chip being made and on and on. Being in the industry they truly lack people that can leverage any of that. Their top IC design lead left long time ago. This level of BS’ing makes me crazy. If she were to move to more stable tech, I’d understand but her last moves in recent weeks are terrible for risk management.
Pumps: Legions of losers from other states? You really are so full of yourself.
Pumpkin Seed,
What line of work are you in again?
3b,
Read this.
http://www.city-data.com/forum/florida/1713011-why-there-so-many-thugs-florida-5.html
Originally Posted by the awesomee “Thats because people come to FL to “escape” all of their issues from up north thinking that somehow living in a “paradise” setting will make them not a loser. All they do is bring their loser family and problems down with them. Florida is plagued with these type of people. Successful people up north don’t move to FL, they vacation here.”
http://www.city-data.com/forum/florida/1713011-why-there-so-many-thugs-florida-5.htm
Can’t get the link passed the firewall, but just understand this.
Remember, warm weather attracts the junkie homeless.
“Originally Posted by the awesomee “Thats because people come to FL to “escape” all of their issues from up north thinking that somehow living in a “paradise” setting will make them not a loser. All they do is bring their loser family and problems down with them. Florida is plagued with these type of people. Successful people up north don’t move to FL, they vacation here.””
Seems some Senate Democrats want to strip ole Sleepy President Joe of some of his power to wage war.
https://www.politico.com/news/2021/03/03/bipartisan-bill-strip-biden-war-powers-473312
Why I say loser? Every single one of the bad kids I knew in high school are now living in Florida. It’s quite amazing how that place attracts this type. It’s like they hear cheap and warm weather, and they just act on it.
Again, if Florida is such a good location, why aren’t successful people moving down in droves? How many successful people move there (and i’m not talking about after they made their money and raised their family)?
Think about who is really moving there. It’s rich, retirees, or mostly scum bags. Yes, there are some pockets of a good middle class community here and there, but they are an anomaly in that state.
Pumps Warm weather attracts junkie homeless? You keep doubling down! Legions of losers, junkie homeless, most corporate workers are a bunch of slackers, mindless drones, doing mindless work, who need constant supervision, and on and on you go.
You really are incredibly arrogant and full of yourself. Absolutely zero self awareness.
What’s your problem, 3b?
Why do you think they have gated communities there? You just don’t get it.
I am so glad to be diversified across 10 funds for safety:
1 ARK Disruptive Innovation
2 ARK Next Generation Internet
3 ARK Genomic Revolution
4 ARK Autonomous Tech & Robotics
5 ARK Fintech Innovation
6 ARK Mobility-as-a-Service
7 ARK Space Exploration
8 ARK 3D Printing
9 ARK Israel Innovation
10 ARK Cryptocurrency
O’Biden failures thus far:
43 days without a press conference; gasoline prices are up 40 cents since O’Biden was placed on the puppet podium; food prices are up 3.8 YOY; 25,000 illegal aliens are at the border – 100 plus have tested positive for covid; 8,000 union jobs eliminated; women’s sports destroyed; National Guard troops defending Capitol have been made sick by eating raw chicken, mouldy bread, and metal shavings; barriers still surround OUR Capital Building; cancel culture offended by a potato and children’s books.
Pumps: my problem is the way you disparage whole groups of people or state. You throw crap out as fact. You have contempt for anyone who does not measure up to your definition of what is successful. I am guessing you have not ventured far out of north Jersey, never mind overseas. You sprout mindless gibberish every day and lecture us, evidenced by your constant use of “Understand this” and along with your lecturing and condescending comments. You present yourself as some nice good guy, but you spew contempt for millions of Americans. In short you think you are better than them. You lecture us on corporate America, without having one hour of experience in corporate America to use as a reference point. The list is endless. I will stop there.
That is why I aptly named him the Great Pumpkin. Linus, thinks he’s the smartest of the Peanut’s characters. Yet with all of his knowledge and booksmarts, Linus still carries a binky and believes in the Great Pumpkin, choosing to ignore the pleas of his peers who are trying to make him aware of his foibles.
https://www.gocomics.com/peanuts/1961/10/25
Again, not most corporate workers. Most workers in general. You hold a romanticize view of workers while I do not. I understand human nature. MOST WORKERS NEED TO BE SUPERVISED OR YOU CAN KISS YOUR BUSINESS GOODBYE. They will steal from you and do the least amount of work that they can get away with.
“most corporate workers are a bunch of slackers, mindless drones, doing mindless work, who need constant supervision, and on and on you go.”
Pumps: You are fecking unbelievable! Simply insufferable.
This comment is why I have no problem trolling you. You are a real low grade piece of sh!t. Who the fcuk do you think you are saying garbage such as this?
The Great Pumpkin says:
March 4, 2021 at 8:42 am
Lib, What’s so good about no income tax when your income is so low?
Fast : did you see what happened yesterday? Happy to take questions if that’s what I am supposed to do? Then the feed is cut?
I didn’t mean it towards, Lib. I meant it towards the people that move there. Not a lot of high paying jobs out there in Florida. Hence, what’s so good about a low income tax when your income is more than likely to be low there.
chicagofinance says:
March 4, 2021 at 10:23 am
This comment is why I have no problem trolling you. You are a real low grade piece of sh!t. Who the fcuk do you think you are saying garbage such as this?
The Great Pumpkin says:
March 4, 2021 at 8:42 am
Lib, What’s so good about no income tax when your income is so low?
You hold a view of corporate workers shaped by watching The Office on television and years spent as a public employee where you and your incompetent peers are protected by a union and clearly get by doing the least amount of work possible. The pandemic has exposed the government worker for the third-world Chicklet hawker that they are. As the corporate world quickly adapted to changes brought on by Covid. The DMV, schools, the post-office, the transit services and the federal government themselves all proved to be incompetent at adapting to the challenge. Heck, in towns such as Montclair, the township and the residents are suing the local school union to force teachers to return to the classroom. ‘Nuff said.
TSLA approaching 1/3rd off of it’s high. Poor ARKK.
Does Ark Israel hold 10% Tesla as well?
Lib, it’s just my opinion. Most people need to be supervised or they will hurt the company. I think it’s ridiculous to think you can trust most people.
Tesla and Bitcoin have dropped 50% before.
First Jab scheduled for Mar 12. Got it through an educator/childcare worker enrollment.
10:41 Does that come from your vast experience working in the post office?
10:28 I think you nailed it. “most” people care about doing a decent job, but when push comes to shove tenure means never having to say you’re sorry. So to speak.
Ark of the Covenant, BRT? Dufus is about to open it and his face will melt.
Lib, NJ oughtta sue based on the schools wasting Tax Payers money in the billions. Huuuugely overpaid do-NOTHING admins raking in the dough along with some veteran teachers. Warning a seat literally waiting to retire and suck you dry.
It’s happening in well-to-do Pakistani households in the suburbs of Washington and among Chinese restaurant workers in Philadelphia. It’s happening among weary Filipino nurses in Queens, Hmong refugee families in Minneapolis and in Silicon Valley’s Asian American community.
As school buildings start to reopen, Asian and Asian American families are choosing to keep their children learning from home at disproportionately high rates. They say they are worried about elderly parents in cramped, multigenerational households, distrustful of promised safety measures and afraid their children will face racist harassment at school. On the flip side, some are pleased with online learning and see no reason to risk the health of their family.
3b,
Fast : did you see what happened yesterday? Happy to take questions if that’s what I am supposed to do? Then the feed is cut?
Omg, what was that all about? I missed that one.
Every single administrator needs to teach at least one class in the districts they ‘serve’ otherwise they have absolutely no clue as to what they are doing or who they are supposed to be working with.
I feel teachers who have time to post incessantly, 50 times a day, have to be monitored.
10:51 don’t think they trusted ol’ Joe with a hot mic and questions….oh so many questions for him to answer.
I wouldn’t worry about ARK, they have “top men and women” working on it? Who? “TOP!”
10:53 He’s “multitasking tho”……:)
Fast: Biden making a speech, finishes, Nancy says something about taking questions , Biden says sure Nance if that’s what I am supposed to do! Then the feed was cut. I am paraphrasing it, but that’s basically it. Seems bizarre to me.
Ed,
Angry tweet ad sales down 80%, Orange tanning cream sales down 95%, McDonalds is down 43%, Torch sales have tanked. What is Biden doing?
3b,
Wow. Worst administration ever achieved in 40 days. How can this continue? It’s quite entertaining but I grieve over the damage the left is inflicting. Classical liberals would never recognize this version of progressive madness. The party of JFK is destroyed.
Eddie you wanna back that statement up with any facts or are we just bloviating again??
A smart move at this point would be the emergence of a distance learning model school offering for hone schoolers and those who hate the school environment. They exist in large numbers.
oops
The average rate on a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage rose to 3.02%, mortgage-finance giant Freddie Mac said Thursday. It is the first time the rate on America’s most popular home loan has risen above 3% since July and the fifth consecutive week it has increased or held steady.
Thank you Mr. Gervais for capture the sentiment we need this morning……
https://youtu.be/1CYi5T0yTl4?t=264
Crude at 64.50?
Keep on printing. Keep on printing.
Essex:
I posted his failures above. 40 days in and already in flames.
“BTW, your investment style and articles posted remind me a hell of a lot of the recently deceased ExPat. I don’t remember. Did you two get along?”
Yes. Wish I knew him better. He helped me look at market volatility differently, something that has dramatically helped me invest better.
I actually came close to reaching out to you guys on your CR trip….I had taken a solo “I just need to get the fcuk outta here” trip there for a couple weeks over the Christmas of my divorce…thoroughly enjoyed it and would have liked to have gone back. I regret now not doing so.
“The average rate on a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage rose to 3.02%…the first time the rate on America’s most popular home loan has risen above 3% since July…”
“Crude at 64.50? Keep on printing. Keep on printing.”
Powell is setting up the necessity to thread a very small needle hole with a rope…
So do we see him Twist and shout this afternoon? And if so does the take comfort or puke all over it? Inquiring minds in ARKK want to know…
Otherwise, just rattle your jewelry…..
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vFUzIP0_rWU&ab_channel=FredaPeeple
does the *market* take comfort….
It’s not a muffler bearing making that noise. Not a Finnegan pin either.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/africa/catalytic-converter-theft-south-africa-rhodium/2021/03/03/dc288192-777d-11eb-9489-8f7dacd51e75_story.html
I was wondering why my sugar baby asked for a rhodium necklace this year. Now I know why.
11:25 if there is a failure it’s that he doesn’t play hard ball enough. But seriously, I am just waiting patiently for the Southern District to bury your saviour. Of yeah and it’s March 4th. Time for another capitol insurrection? SH*tbags.
11:56 Sounds like she just wants something hard to play with for a change…
Lib,
Regarding your time frame for market imploding. How big do you think the drop will be and do you look for signs before and then increase cash positions accordingly? I look at the market and don’t get it sans interest rates being so low. Earnings vs EPS (buybacks) and LT debt, even w low int rates resets every few years. Do you think corp America will increase layoffs near term, more with less & automation? Single income w/ young kids buying house in last year seems very risky.
Right now, it’s going to be good long term buying opportunities for ARK positions. Weak hands being shaken out, allowing for a drop in price, creating opportunities for the ones that hang around.
Does this help?
https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/money-supply-m2
Nomad says:
March 4, 2021 at 12:09 pm
I look at the market and don’t get it sans interest rates being so low. Earnings vs EPS (buybacks) and LT debt, even w low int rates resets every few years.
Nothing has changed in the companies she is invested in besides market sentiment. Sentiment comes and goes, what matters in the long term is if you are picking correctly. That’s all. Simple as that.
Pumpkin head,
What do you do for a living?
Fast Eddie says:
March 4, 2021 at 10:10 am
“O’Biden failures thus far: …”
You forgot to mention his all but begging Iran for another deal; giving away all the leverage that Trump turned over to him, and letting the Iranians start to wreak havoc in the middle east again.
My success in timing the market is based on the knowledge that you need not nail the top nor the bottom. The truth is, if you sell within 50% of the drop from the peak and buy back in within 50% of the bottom, you come out ahead. Now that doesn’t sound too hard, does it? FYI, I swung and missed in the “November to remember” when stocks took a nosedive in 2018? I moved to safety just as the market rebounded and it cost me a solid 15% as I had to tuck my tail back in buy back in higher than where I sold off. Keep in mind, nearly all of my equity market money is in retirement accounts so there are no tax implications to the timing of my sales and purchases. This was the first time I ever missed. Not lying. I usually don’t swing easily, but around 2018 was when I came to the solid realization that this overextended bull market wasn’t Trump’s tax cuts at work. This was all about the money printing presses putting a happy face on a broken economy for the vast majority of our citizenship. What I didn’t account for, was the Robin Hood crowd reentering the day-trading game. I guess we are enough generations away from the Tech Bubble bursting that the younger one’s don’t remember it. Funny, I remember reading a bunch of market pundits warning about this phenomenon about five years ago too. That the old school would all be retiring leaving the new school to relearn the lessons of the past the hard way.
I was able to largely escape the damage of the tech bubble and the subprime/financial crisis by largely looking at the gift horse without examining his mouth. During the tech bubble, it became way to easy to make money in the market. As things kept moving up I kept selling off. Mainly in 25% increments. By the time the top blew off, I only had 25% in the market and I sold that within 10% of the peek.
During the financial crisis, thanks to Clot and others here. I was shorting real estate with my sidelined retirement money when the sh1t hit the fan. Nailed the top and missed the bottom by about 15%. If I recall correctly, I won Grim’s guess the housing correction contest.
I just looked and the market is dying again today. My gut tells me there is another rally before the sh1t hits the fan, because we haven’t seen a post-pandemic society in a very long time. I think the closest thing we can compare this too would be a post WWII economy. But it should be short-lived as this bull market is so overextended, I thought it was popping 3 years ago. Then again, today’s FED is willing to do ANYTHING so who knows. I do know this. We can’t print our way to prosperity nor not tax the wealthy in this country and expect smooth sailing.
As for economic indicators? Yes, I watch the ten-year closely. Second, I watch prices of oil/housing/food, etc. Though, time is what I watch more than anything, with a sprinkling of looking for people saying, “this time it’s different,” and excessive P/Es and PEGs in stocks.
Lib (chi, et al)…
Used this Powell afternoon dip to load some positions….Wrote some puts on AARK type stocks, eg. long duration stocks down 10% today and off 40% from highs of few weeks ago. Writing at a strike that is a further 40% down in August I’m getting a premium equal to 10% of total money at risk……I’m early for sure – as usual – and believe it or not volatility is not that high in some of these so my screen will certainly show some red between now and August but I’m basically getting a 20+% annualized return in exchange for pledging to take some high quality stocks down 50% from where they are today….
Again, this is me dipping a toe in, and I’m expecting a further move down between now and then for sure (cause losses on these positions), but I don’t market time and these types of trades are just coming on the radar to be noticed so I’m starting to open the wallet…..
Tip of the hat (and beer later on) to Ex….
I didn’t even answer your question.
The drop always is between 40 and 60%. I’m going with 60% this time due to the length of the bull and the fact that we are starting from a position where the FED has eaten most of their rations already.
I think Biden should call Mr. Pillow for some advice. Or to order some Egyptian Dream sheets.
Come on now.
Market dropping like a rock, fuel and food sky-rocketing, the Middle East flaring up, illegal aliens flooding the border, covid response non-existent and O’Biden is asking himself what he’s doing here. Nice.
Looks like faith in the FED is waning.
“My success in timing the market is based on the knowledge that you need not nail the top nor the bottom. The truth is, if you sell within 50% of the drop from the peak and buy back in within 50% of the bottom, you come out ahead.”
Looks like I was typing basically the same thing as you were typing. Solid trading profile if one is not just buy and hold.
Buy and hold is for the undisciplined. :P
LOL. But the ‘undisciplined’ get to keep their hair, ha!
XOM still up. Singapore ETF is flat. Taiwan ETF down less. These foreign stocks have much less correlation to the overall market at this point.
I sleep well at night. This current market action is not getting my hair up at all. What we are mainly seeing is the high P/E garbage start to correct, which is pulling down the weighted indexes. Most of my stocks have only dropped 1/3rd to 1/2 of what their indexes have dropped. This is not a broad market sell off. A few of the days, the TSMI barely dropped while the Nasdaq dropped 2%. Watch the large cap value to see if this is the real deal. I fully expect the solid industrials to bounce back to new highs soon enough. I can’t speak for the TSLAs. They’ll have their up days, but I doubt TSLA sees 900 again for a while.
BRT, about a month ago, I started diversifying my VUG into XSOE and VTWO. Impeccable timing, on my part. Once again, I’m still losing during this correction, but had I been all in VUG, I would have really been hammered like an ARK fund holder. I prefer my current wealth to suffer a lesser loss than getting a better price on my future shares. Of course, my new purchases amount to probably 1 tenth of 1 percent of my current wealth. :P
After watching Jeremy Grantham and Raoul Pal talk about what they think is going to happen, it’s basically dollar rally/market crash, and they suggested moving into emerging markets as the spread between them and the S&P is as large as it has ever been.
BRT,
I’ve been dying to get into emerging markets for about a decade. As long as we just keep printing, it should be a no brainer.
“This comment is why I have no problem trolling you. You are a real low grade”
His comment pales in comparison to some of the comments you have made about those “entitled fcuks” that you call clients.
Dedicated to the original troll…..
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mrjStSqu_w4
Fabius Maximus says:
March 4, 2021 at 2:35 pm
“This comment is why I have no problem trolling you. You are a real low grade”
His comment pales in comparison to some of the comments you have made about those “entitled fcuks” that you call clients.
You know what’s a prescient call?
Telling you to sell your ARKK 33% ago.
1:21 he could be guzzling Putin’s sputim…..
Like your flappy crooked mushroom dicked f-ck nugget one term wünder.
Thanks for your comments Lib. Was thinking after the blow up going to some value and emerg markets. As for the tech implosion, remember Ariba? I think at the time no revenue and multi billion dollar mkt cap. Like you, others have said a bit of euphoria for a bit after COVID breaks. With the ramp in vaccines, it should arrive a bit sooner.
Chi, never seen that site. Thanks.
This guy is interesting pertaining to oil;
https://twitter.com/aeberman12?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Eauthor
I’m not short term trading.
This is beautiful for me. When I first start dollar cost avg. into it, it has a major correction. Let’s go!! Now that’s lucky baby!! I have only contributed 2 months of entry points into it. This month’s buy is cheapies!! Beauty of dollar cost avg.
Now she doesn’t have to worry about the weak hands brining in money making her job tougher. So much needed relief. In the end, nothing has changed about these disruptive trends. They are coming.
Libturd says:
March 4, 2021 at 3:07 pm
You know what’s a prescient call?
Telling you to sell your ARKK 33% ago.
The people on this board don’t have the nerves to play ARK long. You have to be able to accept 50% swings down, or you shouldn’t be playing here. For those 50% swings down, there are 150% increases up.
Punkin head,
What do you do for a living? What is your occupation?
I mean, how much more do you guys think it could have gone up? It’s not a bubble baby…it’s rationally correcting on its own.
Cathie expected this. She has been saying it for like 2 months that a correction was coming but she expects to be up by the end of the year.
JFK asked what you can do for your country. The neoteric progressive asks what their country can do for you. The modern liberals cling to each other like covalent germs, huddling in fear that their weaknesses and vulnerabilities will be exposed, magnifying their psychopathological neurosis.
I have had a buy on FSR at $20 since the announcement that FOX CON is partnering with Fiskars to develop the Apple Car. This is not about an energy company. This is not about the Green New Deal. This is not about disruptive tech. The truth is, if Apple decided to sell turds, I would invest in the turd company they are working with. The amount of my investment is less than the cost of my first car, so I can afford to lose it. I watched the price go up nearly 40% and did not change my limit buy price. It is nearly back to $20. By waiting for stocks to become impossible cheap BEFORE I establish a position, I don’t need to double down or dollar cost average, as losers like to call it. I’ll get all of my shares below $20. Not just a few. Sure, I’ll miss 19 out of 20 potential disruptors. But I’ll still have a wife (and quite a few dollars) if the product never comes to fruition.
Eddie we get it you’re brainwashed. You’ve gone round the bend. Reality doesn’t sit well with you.
Correction. Fiskers. Fiskars makes scissors.
You could have bought a share of TSLA at $71 less than a year ago. A month ago it sold for $900. Today it sells for slightly more than $600. At $71, it was going to be the next General Motors. What’s it going to be at $600? Or at $900? What has fundamentally changed between May of 2020 and March of 2021 that will alter Tesla’s future? Because in May, you could have bought 12 shares for every share you purchased in early February just ten months later. Really? The value of Tesla increased 12 times in 10 months? The only think that increased 12 times in the last ten months is the thickness of Pump’s skull.
Chi,
Is this the anthem of your life?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qdZ5wY9XxdA
Thanks Chi for the college planning seminar invite. It was well worth the hour of time invested. I just did a back of the envelope calculator and I’m in for $63K per year. No surprise there. Again. Thanks.
“This is beautiful for me. When I first start dollar cost avg. into it, it has a major correction. Let’s go!! Now that’s lucky baby!!”
Just no words for this level of stupidity.
Do you need a user’s manual to be able to breathe?
Ark Investment Founder and CEO Cathie Wood joined Benzinga’s “Raz Report” this week to discuss the company’s ETFs. She also got a chance to respond to Jim Cramer.
What Cramer Said: On CNBC last month, Jim Cramer gave the fund manager a suggestion: “Memo to Cathie Wood, close your fund.”
Cramer wasn’t suggesting Ark Funds shut down or for Wood to stop managing funds. The suggestion was rather to close off the Ark Funds from new investments.
“Concentrate on performance, not on trying to deploy capital,” Cramer said.
Cramer said many of the great fund managers closed off their funds from new investments, such as Peter Lynch, who ran the Fidelity Magellan Fund closed off the fund. Fidelity Magellan Fund was the best-performing mutual fund in the world from 1977 to 1990 with annualized returns of 29%.
Related Link: Why Does Ark Investment Send A Daily Email On New Positions? Cathie Wood Explains
Wood Responds: Wood believes Cramer is referring to the mutual fund industry, which is not what Ark Funds is.
“It is not possible to close an ETF,” Wood told Benzinga, noting Ark is being opportunistic and is a liquidity provider. The fund manager said there is some misconception on how Ark Funds works, saying she has nothing to do with the inflows and outflows the Ark ETFs get.
“The irony is all I’m doing is concentrating on investing,” she said.
ETFs are for investors, Wood added, calling them superior to mutual funds.
Connecticut dramatically rolls back COVID restrictions, allowing full indoor dining, increased entertainment and sports capacity; travel ban lifted
https://www.courant.com/coronavirus/hc-news-coronavirus-daily-updates-0304-20210304-56d7cbx6k5da7auqqroznhhdfa-story.html
It’s only a matter of time before individuals decide their restrictions are over. I basically have a mountain of evidence that I had covid in Feb and now had my two shots. My personal covid crisis is over. All my elders in my family have been fully vaccinated as well.
As we cross certain thresholds, the public ain’t going to stand for it anymore. I’m sure that 51% vaccinated is the magic number where the general public decides this is over. Some people come around sooner than others.
Libturd, instead of using a back of the envelope calculation for college cost use the “expected family contribution ” calculator to determine what the colleges will expect you to contribute. My EFC was in the 80’s. We were able to get $12k grant for year one for a school similar to what you are looking. this was due to medical expenses this year. Next year I expect it to be full price. Also I have the name of a college headhunter that can steer you to some privates and work with you on the pricing. Im not sure of what his vig is which is why I call him a head hunter. I assume he gets a cut of the 1st year tuition for steering you into one of his preferred colleges (not smith type but more like Muhlehberg, gettysburg, etc)
here is a link through the west Virginia 529 website which has some planning tools.
https://www.smart529select.com/tools-and-resources/calculators-resources.html
NJ will be the last place to remove restrictions, you’ll see.
“Diamond hands Pumpkin”
As I said a while ago, Ark reminds me of Janus. Lots of fun when the inflows are pumping their stocks up. Lots of sadness when outflows force them to sell the same.
In the old days I would have shorted their positions that were very expensive and Ark owned high % of the free float.
Thanks Walking. I used the calculator at the College Board website. Will try to find siblings with cancer scholarships as well. Plus I negotiate like a mofo and supposedly, it’s a buyer’s market for tuition right now. I am in pretty good shape to pay. I just don’t want to pay more than I have to. My kid is so great. He doesn’t care about a fancy name. Now I just have to look for the best value among the private schools without cachet, but with a great program.
Lib, good luck. The school she is going to requested over 300 pages of financial documents. They pretty much had cpa’s looking at our finances. They zillowed my properties, checked online tax assessments, and some other items from my LLCs. Here I was thinking they were novices when I began the process..
Hopefully will be buying some cheapies over the next few months.
Walking,
Sorry, I cannot add any insight into the college tuition discussion. But if you’d indulge me, I am curious. Has college tuition increased so much that it makes sense for nearly every parent to submit the FAFSA/CSS? Even ones that have a good idea they will receive little to no aid? I was wondering where the breaking point is for wealthier people that might not want to participate in the intrusive process.
Joyce: When my guys were in college we were told it had to be filled out even though we got zero. I did it for the first one, got nothing, and just skipped the whole process going forward. Was not getting anything anyhow, no reason to waste the time filling the forms out.
Guys facing a kid’s imminent college search . . .
I was wondering if it is common for kids who are diligently approaching the college search to receive external scholarships. What I mean by “External” is not affiliated with a particular school. Like, for example, if the Mortgage Bankers of Central Jersey had a $500 scholarship which is won by an essay contest.
During high school, I was not diligent in applying to college and seeking scholarships, so I don’t know much about this. At the time, it seemed like the kids who were gunning for top schools, or at least approached the college search as if they were, did receive these kinds of scholarships from random essay contests.
Joyce, it seems like once you hit family income over $110,000 with FASFA you are paying full price at the state schools. In todays $ that is $36-40k in state like a rutgers, $25k for a rowan/ramapo. Out of state schools will be $55 and will give you $15k in merit for mid top schools (50-100 ranking). After the 100 ranking an out of state school will be around $33k. UConn is the exception at around $60k no grant. For the privates add for family income tops out at $150k for top schools. There may be some Merit $ in there but its subject to annual filings. Privates also look at your 401k/iras/pension, kids assets, mortgage and home(s) value, savings, checking, and investments. So a Fordham, Hartford, will run you about $60k- that is what I hear we did not apply there.
The headhunter we worked with kept pushing – Muhlenberg, Gettysburg, Layola college MD, James Madison as he could get us in for under $40k with Merit aid. We did apply Miami Univ Ohio and they are very generous total annual was $30k and they guarantee no price increases for the entire length of time you are there.
These prices are rough numbers give or take a thousand and include tuition housing and extra fees.
https://www.cbsnews.com/video/qanon-shaman-speaks-out-for-the-first-time-in-60-minutes-interview-1/#x
This is hilarious. The guy, undressed, has the look and demeanor of a UPS clerk. His mom lives next door to you. LOL.
Walking,
That’s a good head hunter, from what you are saying. All of those numbers seem about accurate. The key is steering your kid away from the schools with cachet, which have proven to be a waste of the excess money they cost. Essentially, kids that overachieve will overachieve anywhere. In most cases, the overachievers are from wealthy families where the connections already exist. They won’t need the connections and the resume cachet to do well. The only kids that really benefit from the top tier schools are minorities and the poor/middle class students who you know busted their asses without the help of Kumon, mommy or daddy. They need the connections and the cachet. There is nothing more attractive to job recruiters than filling minority quotas with top tier degreed applicants. They all want those tokens. The sweet spot to affluent families are the really good private schools (most are small) that don’t have the cachet. They are battling to fill their classrooms and willing to negotiate with merit and financial need scholarships to the point where some of them will be cheaper than public schools. Walking listed a few of them, but there are probably about 100 of them that fit the mold.
I’m in a great position. My kid could care less where he goes to school as long as we are paying for it. What I’m selfishly looking for is a school with a sh1tty division 3 hockey team where he might be able to walk on to the team (he absolutely loves the sport and is quite good, but not willing to do what’s necessary to make Div 1, which I’m cool with since he’s still high honors through the middle of his Sophomore year. He doesn’t need to throw away his academics to be owned by a university. Anyone know of a school that fits the bill? I also heard that in Div 3, they give out academic scholarships to their smarter student athletes since they need them to fill out their sports teams. Win/win if I can find it.
As for the importance of cachet? I did just fine from Montclair State and Gator from well Univ. of FL.
We can blame inflation all we want, but it’s total bs. It’s nothing more than speculation and the big boys speculating and driving up commodity prices/10 year yield for high inflation that will never come.
Just look at why the price of oil is going up. They can yell and scream it’s based on demand, but if that’s the case, why are you artificially cutting the supply in alliance with other suppliers?
“OPEC and a Russia-led coalition of oil producers kept most of their production cuts in place, surprising traders and sending oil prices up dramatically.
The agreement, reached Thursday after an online meeting between the Saudi Arabia-led Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and a group of non-OPEC producers led by Russia, is the cohort’s latest shift in a sometimes careening debate over how the ebb and flow of the coronavirus pandemic is affecting the global economy and, by extension, oil demand.”
Libturd,
I suggest doing a lot of Early Action university applications to target schools. My daughter had a couple of schools offer her up to $20k/yr as academic merit scholarships. And she was just a good but not top student with good but not great extracurriculars. These were from overpriced semi-prestigious schools like Tulane and SMU that were probably hoping to incentivise her to go there. Still would have cost over $40k/yr. Ultimately she went to her preference, Wake Forest, that was higher ranked and gave her $0.
The funny thing is that some schools ranked below Tulane or SMU put her on wait lists. Perhaps fearing they were safety schools for her and not wanting to hurt their admit conversion stats.
Every school says need based money and admissions are separate. I never filled out a financial aid form because I was 100% confident of getting no aid.
The Ayn Rand Institute Fountainhead and Atlas Shrugged essay contests provide some kids with some college spending money, and some inspiration to make something of themselves. First prize for The Fountainhead $5000, Atlas Shrugged $10,000.
When I see avg wage increases rise 5% above inflation, then maybe I will believe inflation is coming hard. Till then, stop using it as an excuse to move the market in certain directions.
You have how many people with no job and these people are claiming hyperinflation is coming…lmao.
Libturd,
University of Richmond is small, private, very pretty, has or had a d3 hockey team, and unusually for small liberal arts schools has a business program. They talked a lot about student aid. I think it’s worth a visit, because my wife and I thought it seemed pretty nice. Daughter hated it for it’s smaller size.
And can we agree that unless inflation hits wages, it’s not really inflation. The stock market can go up to earning ratios of 50 times, but it’s not the same as inflation hitting workers wages that drastically drive up the price of goods on a regular basis. Only a certain percentage of the population invests. If the money is concentrated in the hands of a small percentage of the population, all it does is drives up asset prices, not really impacting the entire population like wage inflation does.
Evidence- they can’t even raise the min wage to 15 dollars. That’s some crazy inflation coming where they can’t even raise the min wage. Lol
Moral of the story. Don’t abandon growth stocks, you will be sorry. Buying opportunity is all it is. The inflation boogeyman is not coming in the near future.
Punkin,
Still haven’t said what you do for a living. Are you a teacher?
Shaman guy memes were some of the funniest I have seen. That one dig on Zuckerberg retweeted by Musk.
https://tinyurl.com/5z4kjkbr
They are holding the Shaman guy on no bail too. If he wasn’t LARPing that day and went dressed as a normie he would be out on bail by now.
Juice
That shaman guy is like the trekkie convention types. Looks much better while cosplaying as a klingon, in real life they look creepier and/or duller than a coin collector or alcoholic crossing guard.
Yes, now use it to belittle me because it’s cool for team red to beat up the teaching profession.
Fast Eddie says:
March 5, 2021 at 9:16 am
Punkin,
Still haven’t said what you do for a living. Are you a teacher?
They find losers that make it to newspaper headlines and then paint the entire profession with that broad stroke. How about tunnel vision from most parents, they ignore all the good teachers the child has and only focus on the bad ones. God forbid your teaching style or philosophy doesn’t match up with said parent, now you are just a dumb teacher.
Yes, now use it to belittle me because it’s cool for team red to beat up the teaching profession.
My spouse is a teacher and has been in the classroom since September. I’m just wondering how you teach all day while posting all day.
Of course you had to lift your leg, you dirty dog. Think what you want..
Is anyone aware of an ETF available that may be trading 30% lower than two weeks ago? I was looking for an opportunity to dollar cost average into this market.
Why is it that the only price increase that people object to is oil prices?
It’s just that 3/4 of my taxes go to public schools and they seem to not feel like teaching for a year using covid as a perfect excuse to milk the system. It’s fine if teachers are afraid to go back into the classroom, simply resign your position and let someone else take your place. There’s an ocean of people willing to step into the classroom.
In other news, wet @ass p.ussy is recognized as song of the year but Dr. Seuss and Mr. Potato Head are offensive.
Teachers are being moved up the Covid vaccine line. Jersey City is now setting aside does for them.
“Fulop told The Jersey Journal Thursday the city will start inoculating teachers on March 15, the first day that teachers and other essential workers become eligible for the vaccine under new state guidelines. He said the district will designate 250 to 300 staff members each day to get vaccinated at Ferris High School and School 26, adding that 100% of the city’s vaccine supply that week will go to teachers and school staff.”
https://www.nj.com/hudson/2021/03/jersey-city-teachers-to-receive-2000-doses-of-covid-19-vaccine-from-city-mayor-says.html
You mean the public school system that drives your property value? No 1 in the nation…just a doing a terrible job.
You are entitled to your opinion, but most don’t agree. You can always spot the people that hate teachers instead of appreciating them. Such bitter mofo’s.
just a doing a terrible job.
With grammar like that, who needs a public school education? Or, is that Italian English?
How many of your kids that went to nj public schools are not successful? So keep bashing it all you want, facts are facts. Most nj public school children go on to become successful individuals in society. We are ranked no1 or no2 on a regular basis for a reason. This is a great place to raise your family. You guys just take it for granted.
They are blasting this on the corner of 28th & 5th in NYC…….
https://youtu.be/C-TSvxZ40RQ?t=191
Another person is projecting this on the wall of the building on the side street….
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/TSLA?p=TSLA
Are you instructing kids right now as you write on this blog? Aren’t you depriving them of our “no.1 or no.2” status?
WAGES DRIVE PROPERTY VALUES….. the rest of it is just pushing slices of a pie here and there…… if you generate NO REVENUE, then you are a pure cost center
The Great Pumpkin says:
March 5, 2021 at 10:09 am
You mean the public school system that drives your property value? No 1 in the nation…just a doing a terrible job.
You are entitled to your opinion, but most don’t agree. You can always spot the people that hate teachers instead of appreciating them. Such bitter mofo’s.
Had I stayed in Jersey my kid would have continued to attend private school.
We pulled her out in middle school and sent her to
Chatham Day. I teach in the public school system and know just how crappy it really is.
I’m not here to go back and forth about my profession. I know what I do, don’t need to prove anything to you. I earn my pay and it doesn’t matter if you don’t think so. Go bash teachers some more if it makes you feel good. Obviously, the results don’t align with your opinion. We are ranked 1 or 2 every single year for a reason.
For an average kid the public schools blow.
They coast off of the fact that kids come prepared.
If the kid isn’t prepared they fall between the cracks.
It’s called the achievement gap.
Essex:
Speaking of roles, you once questioned whether my role is a cost center. It’s an interesting question and debatable. I wish I could divulge more here but I can’t. I can say that my role is client-facing to a great degree among many other functions.
Tell that to the people that look into school districts as a deciding factor in where they raise their family.
chicagofinance says:
March 5, 2021 at 10:21 am
WAGES DRIVE PROPERTY VALUES….. the rest of it is just pushing slices of a pie here and there…… if you generate NO REVENUE, then you are a pure cost center
10:27 just so you aren’t this guy:
https://youtu.be/hNuu9CpdjIo
These “people” get their money from where?
When you work in a cost center, there is a fundamental lack of appreciation for rainmakers. You can have a person come in and pitch to a client, and that person’s skill and gravitas for one hour can keep a team of 50 people busy for 3 months….. you pay that person $1M. The guy plays a lot of golf during business hours. Keeps minimal office time. Is he overpaid? If you have a punchclock mentality then you damn sure think he is.
You are a dot connector.
The Great Pumpkin says:
March 5, 2021 at 10:34 am
Tell that to the people that look into school districts as a deciding factor in where they raise their family.
chicagofinance says:
March 5, 2021 at 10:21 am
WAGES DRIVE PROPERTY VALUES….. the rest of it is just pushing slices of a pie here and there…… if you generate NO REVENUE, then you are a pure cost center
I’d say it’s a bit more involved.
Pumps: painting with a broad stroke? Like all those corporate workers who are a bunch of slackers and mindless drones? Self awareness!!
I forgot the levels I posted for The Ten, but I think it was 158 and 185. It appears that 158 or whatever this 155-160 level is a beast. We almost blew through it on the jobs number, but it backed off. I think if we burst through 160 and hold, then a bunch of people are going to be freaked. If so, then it is only a matter of time to 185. I don’t know why people are yapping about 200. It must be a round number is all.
A bit of a quirky logistical issue is that we are issuing a new Ten next week, so the on the run bond is going to change.
Big opportunity is here.
“Cathie Wood Warns of “A Doozy Market Correction””
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OEpdc9FIRqQ
ChiFi,
Once again, we are in complete agreement. Last week, I was scheduled to be on a conference call with AIG to work with them on their 10q and annual report. I thought it was odd that I was invited, but occasionally they bring me in as an SME for sharing of best practices on file composition for large runs like these. Well, the call begins and the only other rep from my firm on the call is a rep from customer service. There are 7 AIG reps who are asking me all kinds of questions that only a sales rep should be able to answer. Well, I just role with it and play the part of sales and even convince them to print a third document with us. After their call, I immediately call my supervisor to see wtf is up? He says the sales rep for AIG is blah, blah, blah. Well blah, blah, blah has a similar last name to mine and customer service accidentally chose me on the meeting invite.
So now, we don’t want to show AIG that we messed up having me there, but I have to get myself out of this role. They keep calling me for status updates and to thank me for my excellent communication and assistance.
It’s times like this I realize why they pay me what they do. Even though I am currently in the parking lot at Middletown Ice Arena (your neck of the woods) waiting for my son to play hockey.
Though I took the day off. Already handled two calls, one from Toronto and the other from Denver, for some technical troubleshooting advice.
Where? Is this country, dufus? You won’t see it. In India, we can’t even get candidates hired after 6 months of looking. Our rates are not competitive enough and no one seems to care. Keep looking while candidates are turning us down for 5-10% more. They would have to go 30% more before most major banks start looking in Europe or US. We have hired nobody on our team in US in 2.5 years. The NYC banking area is dead for technology unless want to live on 60/hr, no benefits. There was a flurry of activity from Dec through Feb. I had two phone interviews but not a fit. I had one role at jap bank in NYC that was absolute fit and recruiter was excited. I have not heard back in month. Not one Linkedin message, nor email from Indeed junk account in three weeks. That is crazy. Even desperate lowballers have stopped contact. You have no clue about private sector. Happily mentioning 20% uptick in NJ prices yet it is 2 people working to make that happen in most cases and they will scrounge to continue to pay taxes, student loans, daycare, etc. Inflation comes and you will find out that capitalism and patriotism don’t mix. Read Grim’s assessment of outsourcing to Africa as next frontier. Also, probably 90% of NYC jobs are in a cost center. Good luck.
“When I see avg wage increases rise 5% above inflation, then maybe I will believe inflation is coming hard. “
ARKKmageddon
I just may do a road trip all summer with my kids instead of camp. I may never get this chance again.
Senate is about to vote and extend unemployment all the way through September.
“A new amendment readied by Sen. Tom Carper (D-Del.) would change the aid bill’s boosted weekly federal unemployment payments from $400 weekly, as approved by the House, to $300. But the Senate’s deal would extend benefits through September instead of August, and the first $10,200 of unemployment benefits will now be non-taxable income. The agreement was hatched by both moderate and progressive Democrats.”
https://www.politico.com/news/2021/03/05/covid-aid-bill-senate-vote-amendments-473805
Obi-Wan Disney Series is forthcoming. Hayden Christenson to reprise Vader. The mouse will milk it dry. Probably late to knowing it though.
HODL!! Lol
Juice Box says:
March 5, 2021 at 11:55 am
ARKKmageddon
Juice, def do that for vacation. You will create awesome memories. Just plan it out right.
“I also heard that in Div 3, they give out academic scholarships to their smarter student athletes since they need them to fill out their sports teams. Win/win if I can find it.”
Let’s chat if you want. Know a recent graduate well from a solid D3 school (NE, very solid academics). Played V all four years, captained team. I’ll see him next week, will ask to put you two in touch.
I know a little about college hockey….manage expectations…..unless you are a top local player D1 is not anywhere on the table. By top local player I mean solid T1 team pedigree (not one of the half dozen unwashed clubs), played Brick, played Quebec (top tier), District teams, and likely at least Five Nations and usually through a legit Prep school (or if not, reverse engineer those local names fitting the omissions who are at D1 and you’ll see a commonality that you don’t have). And after all that usually a stint first in the USHL just to make sure.
For D3….the universe where good academics and reasonable hockey intersect is rather small…NESCAC plus some. Look at those rosters….yes, there is a ‘juniors’ strategy but that is a minefield, most juniors locally is nearly fraudulent with their pay-to-play models with multiple levels and an ugly pathway in terms of timetable and culture, ie locker rooms and long bus trips with 20 year olds may break everything good about a 17 old (and btw if you are paying to play it isn’t Juniors, it is T3 Level B)….otherwise, those more elite D3 schools turn on the spigot from their favorite NE Prep schools to fill good portions of the roster.
It’s a very low probability event for a T2 NJ kid to walk on a good school and a good roster at D3. Sure, possibly SUNY-Morrisville or one of a dozen sh1tty WI/MN junior college equivalents (maybe not even there) but is that really where a very good academically inclined kid best resides?
It’s a highly personal decision so of course YMMV on those relative points of hockey v. institutional academics. I will say many NJ parents (not necessarily you in particular) have wildly out of synch expectations about their kid’s hockey pathway…the pyramid is very different than, say, lax….there are so many very well qualified kids I know personally that fit the qualifications above yet get hit hard with reality, I literally do not have enough fingers and toes to count…there’s one kid who played who checks 3 of the 5 D1 boxes above. At least five of his teammates are on D1 ice…he was half a step behind but again very solid local T1 player….went to a real hockey school (D1), tried out for club, got cut from that. At your better hockey schools there are multiple club teams and the competition for the top club team is extreme.
Throw me a text if you want, I’m a little tied up this weekend but have some gaps and generally around after that.
Essex, you weren’t kidding.
“The Venice Real-Estate Market Is Unstoppable No More
Covid and a growing homeless population have impacted the area’s home prices and have led to uptick in inventory, according to local agents”
https://apple.news/A2yQS24iTRS2o5jsLq6CUsw
ExEssex you nailed it on the public schools. Eddie is right the union is being ridiculous about coming back in. Here in Maplewood we have a disaster on our hands, parents are suing schools are all virtual, how do you justify it with what is paid in taxes and spent on schools?
The other nonsense is the achievement gap, the difference is the rich parents will not let their kids fall behind. Apparently black students are three grades behind their white counterparts. The big difference is the socioeconomic divide, the white kids parents are all doctors, lawyers, engineers, professors where most of the black kids parents are working class mostly blue collar. What the schools do is irrelevant those white kids were always going to ace the tests, the parents would make sure of it with tutors and generally placing value on education. When you consider there is some genetic component to intelligence it make sense that more often than not smart parents will have smart children who succeed despite the schools. I think the answer here is the schools need to get better overall and perhaps the issue is not one of integration but rather of more segregation separating the struggling kids from those who are ahead. Truth be told cancel the public schools and give me back the nearly 70% of my property taxes that go to the schools it will go a long way to sending my kids to private school.
Lib dealing with clients is the only reason I’m paid what I’m paid. I used to manage developers in the US, they got rid of those people. I used to deal with traders and risk managers when I worked for the ibanks, those are the only jobs they kept in NYC and even those are under assualt(as a cost center to save money) The cost center mentality is a bad one though, yes you need the guy who sells but you all need the goods to sell or in the case of the bankers they need capabilities to conduct their business. A good product almost sells itself at times, no matter how good your sales guy is if he’s got nothing good to sell he’ll come up empty handed. I’ve worked on bad products it doesn’t matter how good the sales team is no one will buy it. If banks moved away from the cost center mentality perhaps they’d be able to execute, truth be told if the banks were tech companies, retailers, or automakers every single one of them(including the best operators like GS) would have gone out of business.
The teachers are trying their hardest to not come in and it’s all because they enjoy not coming to work too much. We have gone through 6 months at my school with no evidence of transmission in our school at all. We’ve rolled back several of the restrictions all along the way.
Kids are getting it via sports. Not in school.
And JCer, you are right about the parents. I know several families that are living the same experience we are. Using brute force to ensure our kids learn everything they were supposed to. It’s very time consuming and emotionally draining. For all their talk about closing the “achievement gap”, they’ve done more to widen it than ever before.
They opened schools in the suburbs and barely had any students there.
At the end of the day, we just lived through a pandemic. Too many people don’t realize this and are demanding for perfection. I just had a parent liaison at my school who was in his 40’s just die to corvid and pneumonia this past Monday.
I’m all for opening up schools and the economy, but guess what, my opinion is not shared by everyone. Some people are scared, and who are we to tell them not to be? At the end of the day, stop judging people and disrespecting their right to be scared during a pandemic.
People are ridiculous. Just as bad as the cancel culture pushing your opinion and thought process on everyone else. How are you any different from the cancel culture you hate?
I am sitting here now doing two hours home work dumped at 1:45 PM, teacher cancelled remote class this afternoon too, it’s become the new standard every week.
86 billion in the Covid package to bail out private pensions!
I am sure corruption played no part in wby many are under funded or bankrupt!
In my district, 80% of the parents opted for their kids to receive in person instruction. Is that what you call barely any? You definitely have a right to be scared and not forced to come to work. You should be forced to take a medical leave of absence. What you don’t have a right to do is hold up the school system and education of the children because you want the luxury of working from home.
Fast
Enjoy. Get some popcorn or chips first
https://nypost.com/2021/03/05/watch-media-stars-eat-up-andrew-cuomos-lies-before-he-was-exposed-as-a-fraud/
I think everyone on this blog last March was saying negative things about him as the media fawned all over him.
Beer – Only three accusers so far, there are bound to be more. He will get a pass well Trump got his will be the excuse.
Guys, there are bad teachers. Wake up. There are also many good ones. Why do you think I said the avg worker is not that good and needs to be managed?
I have been a teacher for 16 years. I know how the avg person thinks. There will always be the go getter in the class, and there will always be the slacker. Everyone else is in between. What do you think..That magically changes in the population of adults?
Beer,
Now, that’s entertainment?
Exclamation point, not a question. Lol!
You will have your class clown. The shy type.
Not everyone is a super hero worker. Lots of super hero workers also go start their own business. So I don’t know what you expect from teachers when you don’t pay them like you respect them.
I’m happy with my daughter’s education, maybe change districts. Wayne seems to have a lot of good teachers.
Juice: If he were a Republican he would be gone by now. If he does ultimately resign does he lose his Emmy? Same thing with Biden and the use of Neanderthal, were it Trump or another Republican, it would be racist. My biggest complaint with the left has always been their hypocrisy.
Pumps – I have many cousins and extended family that are excellent teachers and even two principals and a school nurse in my family. They are all hard working and dedicated educators, and I talk with many of them regularly. They all want to be back in the schools but have said the Union says otherwise.
What would have been best to get the New Jersey economy open again is vaccinate the first responders, medical professionals and then teachers, admin and child care. Vaccine has been out for almost three months now. The smokers should have been last. Vaccinating an 18 year old smoker over a teacher? No Way. Get the teachers vaccinated and the economy open so we can all get back to work.
parent liaisons are not needed
I was just dealt a 12000 royal ony 3rd hand of free play!!!
3b,
Hypocrites are everywhere. It is useless exercise to try to call one party more hypocritical than other. If you really want to get into hypocrisy lets first discuss the party of Jesus and their big book of hypocritical ideals, misogyny and blatant violence.
3b – resign? The “Lov Guv” not happening, Spitzer had the Sword of Damocles hanging over his head, there are no FBI surveilling Cuomo and he knows this. Having his own State Attorney General investigate him is hilarious. You think they are going to dig their claws in with wiretaps? He skates, he won and Emmy for his acting and will be rewarded.
“An above average payroll report (+379k), upward revisions, and a falling unemployment rate (to 6.2%) point to continued recovery.”
Wow, strong Biden economy and leftist policy really taking hold for America. Good to have a president who really understands business. BBB..build back better. I should get a silly blue hat too.
My husband and I are high risk and have not been vaccinated. I spend an hour daily looking for an appointment without luck. So … this pandemic still feels real to me.
Regarding schools….
https://www.fox5dc.com/news/baltimore-area-student-passed-only-3-classes-in-4-years-ranked-near-top-half-of-class
4:01 STF U Donny
rEpuBlicAns aRe aLwAys vIctIms
This is what most die hard republicans miss. They are so infatuated with their tax Bill, that they take it out on the teachers. They are such cheapo’s that they think it’s beneficial to eliminate public education (since they can afford to send their kids to private school). The part that they miss, it’s beneficial to everyone in said society to have a good education system in place. I seriously cringe when I hear talk about the cost savings of living in a low cost location…that savings comes from your society and your children’s education. Keep sh!ting on it..
Juice Box says:
March 5, 2021 at 4:21 pm
Pumps – I have many cousins and extended family that are excellent teachers and even two principals and a school nurse in my family. They are all hard working and dedicated educators, and I talk with many of them regularly. They all want to be back in the schools but have said the Union says otherwise.
What would have been best to get the New Jersey economy open again is vaccinate the first responders, medical professionals and then teachers, admin and child care. Vaccine has been out for almost three months now. The smokers should have been last. Vaccinating an 18 year old smoker over a teacher? No Way. Get the teachers vaccinated and the economy open so we can all get back to work.
And dumbasses like 3b can bust my balls, but make dumb blanket statements that education is treated the same everywhere and that blue ribbon schools don’t matter. Just stop..
Most disgusting bs…hiding behind school choice to dismantle public education. I don’t know how you people live with yourselves. Keep drinking the kool aid.
Pumps: If you represent the best that the teaching has to offer in NJ, then you just proved this dumb asses point! The fact you are a teacher is frightening.
3b,
I’m sick of you belittling me. Take your negative bs somewhere else. Claim you are a good guy but love belittling me. Okay, good guy! Own it.
“Cathie Wood Warns of “A Doozy Market Correction””
LOLOLOL. She’s spot on….she recorded the video on the day her stock hit 126 from 159…
A correction of 20% spot on…in six days no less!!
Downright prescient, I tell ya….
Bystander: With all due respect Biden has been President for about 6 weeks , this cant be attributed to him. It’s like all the Trump supporters who credited him with the economy before the pandemic. As for Biden’s BBB , it’s nonsense, more so I’m that he and the other dinosaur career politicians bear a lot of the responsibility for destroying the US over the last 40 years.
You know what the answer to American society is…get rid of the union and put in the cheapest individuals you can to educate your children. What a bunch of ignorant bs…but taxes will be cheap.
She’s good. Of course you could never say a woman is smarter than you.
leftwing says:
March 5, 2021 at 7:51 pm
“Cathie Wood Warns of “A Doozy Market Correction””
LOLOLOL. She’s spot on….she recorded the video on the day her stock hit 126 from 159…
A correction of 20% spot on…in six days no less!!
Downright prescient, I tell ya….
You’re clueless…you have no idea what I date, that’s why I have no interest in that ditz AOC lol
And, again, I’m not ridiculing her, I’m ridiculing you.
Pumps : You deserve to be belittled. I have asked you repeatedly not to reference me in your posts but you refuse. Your last one called me a dumb ass, with absolutely no provocation on my part. Yeah, I consider myself a good guy. Not a self absorbed bs artist like yourself, who calls people losers and all your condescending arrogant posts and comments. I ain’t leaving. And of course neither are you. You said you were the other day, but that lasted for about 10 minutes. So I ask you yet again to stop referencing me in your posts, including your “ some people just don’t get it” comments, and I will happily ignore you. If you don’t , I will continue to call you out for the arrogant obnoxious (among other things) individual you are. Balls in your court, your choice.
I’m humble. It’s a blog. I can generalize that most of the population is avg. I’m avg too, I’m no musk or wood.
Ambition and motivation is the only thing that separates the population. Yes, you have your elite genius, but they are a minority. Anyone can become intelligent, it just takes some more effort for some, and for some(genius) it comes naturally.
Musk is the genius of my generation. Why would I ever go against him. Too many boomers think they are smarter than musk. Here lies the problem..
Same thing with Ark…Cathie is a got damn genius. I don’t know why you guys doubt her. She is so ahead of her time.
You guys compare her to the past…there has never been another Cathie. She is the one you copy cat. She is the visionary.
Pump, respect more with your profession!
NJ does not have much to offer any more than shore, weed, food, proximity to NYC. But I must confess we have a real good level of education in certain neighborhoods. Go to south, tax-free areas or CA to get hit with the terrible public education system. Experiences with my kids tell me clearly we are in the top 3 in public education.
Democratnomore, a lot of bots are made for nj vaccine info one, https://twitter.com/nj_vaccine
The founder of ARK Investment Management upended the status quo with her innovative approach to stock-picking. Why recent setbacks don’t scare her—or her fans
https://apple.news/AbI9ZJl2kSOy10ay6nvdOaw
That’s why I keep hitting fast Eddie and 3b types earlier today, with show me the facts. There is a reason nj is ranked no 1 or 2 every year, and these fools take it for granted to the extent that they piss on it.
njtownhomer says:
March 5, 2021 at 8:34 pm
Pump, respect more with your profession!
NJ does not have much to offer any more than shore, weed, food, proximity to NYC. But I must confess we have a real good level of education in certain neighborhoods. Go to south, tax-free areas or CA to get hit with the terrible public education system. Experiences with my kids tell me clearly we are in the top 3 in public education.
Pumps: Well I have my answer. The only fool on this blog is you. You make a fool of yourself here every day.
Thank you njtownhomer
Njtowm: I don’t argue that there are good school systems in NJ. Are they the best ? That can be debated. Are they graduating Ivy League or right below graduates. No. My own kids went to Blue Ribbon was the education top notch a? No in my opinion. Good yes. What I do find ironic is the number of NJ Parents who brag about how fantastic the schools are here, and denigrate the poor quality of other states public education system, yet then send their kids to their state schools where the overwhelming majority of students are from the same public school systems that so many NJ parents denigrate.
I was a big supporter of public education for many years, but for a number of reasons now believe parents should have school choice.
3b,
Yes, that was point. I listened to 4 years of red hat BS attributing Trump’s business genius to performing economy. One that performed the same as previous administration. Printing tons of money is all it is about. Biden has nothing to do with it. No president does most of time. It is where you catch it. Biden is catching an open checkbook phase, just like Trump did. This one won’t stop.
Bystander: Agreed. Guess I missed the sarcasm in your original post.
3b, They may not be the best, but they are definitely in top percentile/decile/quartile.
Honestly my experience was limited. My kids spent a few yrs in Austin’s 2 best school districts, both claimed to be the best. Not just academically but also socially I found them inferior to what we have here. My elementary school kid did not do any homework one year, cause the teacher was busy doing extra work to supplement her 40K salary and there was no incentive by the district. Same for other schools in other districts. School districts are huge, budgets limited, there is money (TX real estate taxes ~ 2% also) but not well spent. They had money to pay the football coach well though.
My friends in different states had to move places or choose private schools. Honestly for many, public schools were not much of a choice.
When does it start today?
Covid-19 death rates 10 times higher in countries where most adults are overweight, report finds
https://www.cnn.com/2021/03/04/health/obesity-covid-death-rate-intl/index.html?utm_medium=social&utm_content=2021-03-05T07%3A31%3A02&utm_term=link&utm_source=twCNN
maybe forced exercise would have been better than forced shutdowns
The property Jordan Mazer bought in December is the classic Venice beach house in more ways than one.
The $2.225 million clapboard house is close enough to a local surf break that Mr. Mazer, a 33-year-old human-resources executive for a videogame company, can run to it with his surfboard tucked under his arm. Another thing that makes his property emblematic of the neighborhood: He paid $213,000 less than the buyer in 2018, and $450,000 less than the buyer in 2016. The home, for which he paid over $1,000 a square foot, is near the beach but also near the Venice boardwalk, where scores of homeless people are now living.
The property market in Venice, once a working-class community that experienced an extraordinary run-up in prices from 2012 through 2019, is taking a pause. From 2012 to 2019, prices grew by an average of about 17% a year in Venice, vastly outpacing price growth in the rest of Los Angeles, according to an analysis by real-estate website Zillow. Those trends reversed in July, when price growth across Los Angeles began to outpace price growth in Venice. Throughout the pandemic, while area home prices rose in neighborhoods such as Brentwood, Pacific Palisades and the beaches of Malibu, homes over $3 million in Venice have been a tougher sell, local agents say.
In 2020, Venice, a neighborhood of just over 3 square miles, was host to 1,981 homeless people, up 57% from 2019. The homeless population in Los Angeles County rose by 12.7% during the same period, according to data from the Los Angeles Homeless Services Authority.
On March 17, 2020, in response to the Covid crisis, the Los Angeles City Council approved a measure suspending enforcement of laws that prohibited people from leaving tents assembled during the day, thus legalizing encampments that have sprouted throughout Venice and other parts of Los Angeles. Mike Bonin, the 11th-district council member who serves the Venice area, said homelessness is increasing across Los Angeles and consequently is also growing in Venice. “Another reason is there is open space on the beach to sleep,” he said.
Our desire for cheap junk has driven shipping costs through the roof.
“Peter Baum’s company in New York, Baum-Essex, uses factories in China and Southeast Asia to make umbrellas for Costco, cotton bags for Walmart and ceramics for Bed Bath & Beyond. Six months ago, he was paying about $2,500 to ship a 40-foot container to California.
“We just paid $67,000,” he said. “This is the highest freight rate that I have seen in 45 years in the business.”
In early September, he waited 90 days to secure space on a ship for a container of wicker chairs and tables.”
“Major consumer brands — from the sportswear-maker Under Armour to Hasbro, the game and toymaker — have been dealing with shipping bottlenecks.
Peloton points to port congestion as a factor behind its delays in delivering its high-end stationary bicycles. To shorten wait times, Peloton outlined plans to invest $100 million in air shipping and expedited ocean freight.”
“Empty Containers Are Being Shipped Back to Asia
The dysfunction on the American West Coast has caused problems thousands of miles away.
Scoular, one of the largest agricultural exporters in the United States, loads grain and soybeans into containers at terminals like Chicago and Kansas City, and then sends them by rail to Pacific ports en route to Asia.
Given the prices fetched by containers in Asia, shipping carriers are increasingly unloading in California and then immediately putting empty boxes back on ships for the return leg to Asia, without waiting to load grain or other American exports. That has left companies like Scoular scrambling to secure passage.
Delays at the ports frequently bump Scoular’s containers to different vessels, forcing the company to redo its customs paperwork — another delay.
“It’s the schedule reliability that is a problem,” said Sean Healy, Scoular’s carrier relations manager. “It’s a global issue.”
https://www.nytimes.com/2021/03/06/business/global-shipping.html?action=click&module=Top%20Stories&pgtype=Homepage
Covid-19 death rates 10 times higher in countries where most adults are overweight, report finds
https://www.cnn.com/2021/03/04/health/obesity-covid-death-rate-intl/index.html?utm_medium=social&utm_content=2021-03-05T07%3A31%3A02&utm_term=link&utm_source=twCNN
maybe forced exercise would have been better than forced shutdowns
It’s a good thing Murphy closed county parks and bike trails during nice weather.
Essex – I have pointed this out a few times. NIMBY. Your Governor wants to build somewhere around 3.5 Million low income public housing units, however California’s housing construction ranks 49th in the country.
Just don’t built it in my backyard otherwise I cannot get $725 a sq ft.
JB,
My father worked in marine manufacturing mostly for large container ships. He told me, over years, China has cornered market and own most of containers worldwide. Prepare to get f-ed in future. He thinks US is alseep at wheel on it