From Fox Business:
Jobs report will offer fresh recession clues
The Labor Department’s monthly jobs report due out Friday is likely to show U.S. employers hired fewer workers last month than in May, and economists say the slowdown may serve as the latest recession clue.
Economists polled by Refinitiv forecasted the report to show that 268,000 nonfarm jobs were added to payrolls in June, which would be the slowest in over a year and down from 390,000 the month before.
The labor market – along with the economy at large – is expected to cool as the Federal Reserve continues its campaign of bumping up interest rates in an effort to battle roaring inflation, which sits at a 40-year high.
But there are growing concerns that the central bank could go too far in slowing down demand and plunge the U.S. into a recession, which is defined by two consecutive quarters of negative gross domestic product growth.
Some analysts are pointing to signs that a recession is already here: Last week, the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta lowered its second-quarter GDP forecast to -2.1%.
From MarketWatch:
Hiring in U.S. likely fell to 18-month low in June — 250,000 new jobs forecast
The number of new jobs the U.S. created in June is expected to ramp down to a 18-month low of 250,000, a poll of economists by The Wall Street Journal estimates.
By comparison, the economy added an average of 488,000 jobs a month in the first five months of 2022.
Before the pandemic, a 250,000 increase in new jobs would have been seen as quite strong. And it would still show a healthy gain in hiring even now.
Yet evidence is growing that some companies are scaling back hiring plans, especially in the tech industry. Even companies that still want to hire, meanwhile, area struggling to find workers.
A pair of surveys of U.S. businesses by the Institute for Supply Management found that employment contracted in June. Most executives said the problem was finding enough people to hire, however, instead of a big drop in demand for their goods and services.
Millions Of Barrels From US Emergency Oil Reserve Sent Abroad, Including To China I guess joe doesn’t love us ….
Question For Mike S from yesterday you said your portable generator can also run your heat. Do you have a newer boiler / furnace with a circuit board? Any issues?
Hi All, I have followed the blog for years, and learned so much. Former Mantoloking , Brick Beach resident. I have lived in the Volusia County beach area for 15 yrs. About 4 weeks ago all real estate started to take a pause. Listings have fallen off the cliff, and showings are way down. No wholesale price reductions so far. Let’s see what happens. Most properties here are under 1mm with the average now being in the 600s for a high end condo beachside, or a decent house. We have seen 30 pct appreciation in the past 18 months alone. Friendly observations on a Friday ! I appreciate the blog ! ( J.J. For Congress ! )
From the NYT:
What’s Up With the Crazy Housing Market?
After a two-year boom, the United States housing market finds itself at a pivotal moment — but pivoting to what, exactly?
This spring should have been a busy time for home sellers. Instead, the season was a dud, stalled by a dramatic spike in mortgage rates that stunned even industry experts with its chilling effect on the market.
The frenzied environment we had become accustomed to — with its eye-popping price increases and bidding wars that left buyers dejected and sellers giddy — suddenly seemed to be a thing of the past. While buyers stood on the sidelines, recalculating their much larger mortgage payments, sellers began to realize that offers of $100,000 or more over asking might not be forthcoming.
And over in the rental market, it’s “The Hunger Games,” as rents skyrocket and would-be renters in cities across the country compete with dozens of other applicants.
“Right now, we’re in this cauldron of uncertainty,” said Jonathan J. Miller, the president of Miller Samuel Real Estate Appraisers & Consultants. “Housing hates uncertainty. The biggest enemy of the housing market is uncertainty, and we have buckets full of uncertainty.”
The Fed will continue to tighten, until inflation is contained. They won’t make the mistakes of the 60/70s of not raising rates high enough and keeping them high. This talk of easing next year makes no sense. Reversing course will just pump up inflation again and perhaps send it even higher. There are still those left on Wall St that understand that. Inflation is the enemy for all especially low income and the poor.
Not a bad number, jobs beat at 372k vs. 250k estimated. UE holds at 3.6%
Downward revisions temper some enthusiasm about the June number.
April saw a big downward revision – 436k to 368k, May was much smaller, 390k to 384k.
Net net, still very strong.
Slight downtick in wage increases is a positive, down to 5.1% YOY from 5.3%.
Fed 75 bps for July is a given.
Grim if the downward revisions were 3 months consecutive, then more of a concern. This one looks like a one off.
Stacy Abrams, moderate America, swing states and the abortion issue . . .
The clip below is from a few days ago. Stacy Abrams refuses to give full support in plain English for national D’s abortion position. So, even a headline national figure like Abrams knows that the D position on abortion (late term, etc) is still toxic in swing states, including ones that voted for Biden like Georgia. So, the furor in the media about pro-choice voters storming the polls in 2022 = nope. Could change, though, when the first horror story comes out of some 16 year old girl in a red state that dies due to some kind of ectopic pregnancy and a bad, unreasonable anti-abortion law.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=O5Fqt5L2oXU
Voluntary quits numbers from the JOLTS data isn’t really showing much hesitancy yet. Job quitters still running at record highs.
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?id=JTSQUL,\
Arguably, it’s a lagging or at best a coincident indicator, but Jan-May isn’t necessarily showing anything that even begins to indicate a downward trend.
New listing by us, not sure what the ask is yet, but Zillow has it valued at 800k, the Homeowner paid $450 in 2011. I doubt it will sell for anywhere near 800k. I saw their grown adult son out there weeding the yard yesterday. I gather the realtor was telling them about curb appeal etc. Lawn is a mess of crabgrass and the yard needs a whole crew to clean it up. The son gave up on after a few hours of weeding and now the street in front if the place is piled up with loads of junk furniture etc as it is pick up day from the town.
My house is now on Zillow just north of $1 million Zestimate, huge increase since what 6 months ago for absolutely no reason, as nothing sells close to that in my development. If someone is willing to pay me $1 million for my house I will take it no questions asked and toss in all the extras and heck my nice collection of tools and my inflatable hot tub too!!
Abe assassinated this morning by a shooter using something that looks like a crude handheld home-made zipgun / improvised firearm.
Hoping this one gets sold at asking, I want my $655k zestimate to stick.
https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/19-Sell-Pl-Wayne-NJ-07470/39793244_zpid/
Looks to be some kind of black powder shotgun. Blew a hole thru Abe from behind too….
https://nypost.com/2022/07/08/shinzo-abe-assassin-used-homemade-gun/
Draw a 30 mile radius around NYC and houses are gone generally within a few days. Unless it’s a really awkward hovel and priced at fat Mary Muppet levels, houses are gone in a flash in the NYC vicinity. It’s bittersweet as you all now my disdain with the real estate workings but it’s just how it is. Despite taxes, interest rates and price point, if you hold the house a few years, you’ll most likely make a profit. I’d go as far to say that buying a house in our area is as close to a guarantee that you’ll turn a profit more than any other asset class. It’s a mega blue chip investment. Again, I hate some of the playas in this game but it’s just how it is here.
Fast: I don’t know about that, at some point the pain of higher rates kicks in, even here.
There are some very nice houses for sale in my town, and they have been sitting for a while now, some since April or May. These are all well kept updated homes and would have been gone last year and the year before. Not a lot of inventory in my town, but it’s creeping up, and if demand is so strong then the houses I noted should be gone at this point. So, something has changed.
Well house prices might be going up, butr society is deteriorating.
I like the overtime, but really…
A labor market stat that would be really useful right now is the % of employees that have been in their current job for less than a year. Might help explain weak productivity.
“This is the first recession in history where we just keep adding jobs”
3b,
Anything I see in and around surrounding towns are gone within a few days. Almost everyday I look at various ‘desirable’ towns from North Jersey to Westchester/CT and anything priced below 600K is getting you into a bland, worn split or bi-level. For the low 500s, you can get a cape in a decent town. That’s the entry price. Those that have means simply have means and there’s plenty of desired homes soliciting multiple bids.
If you’re a first time buyer, you’re struggling to compete. Once you get past that hurdle, there’s wealth (or debt) waiting to be put on the table. These are not my rules and I have disdain for the dumb, fat f.ucks who stumble into a windfall but it’s just the way it is. I despise the house tour guides who profit from it all the same. Maybe in Coeur d’Alene, Idaho or Phoenix prices drop by 30% quickly but it isn’t happening here. Whether it’s a 3% or 7% 30-year fixed rate, it’s very competitive here.
Joyce,
That’s how it works. Just like animal farm.
If it were not for body cameras and cell phone cameras we would not even know this happened.
There is so much hubris there that even with things like this being filmed you can see how they stick up their noses at the same law they attempt to apply on us plebs.
Fast: Time will tell, I am not convinced, nowhere is immune some areas hit harder than others, but no area is immune.
I was thinking about gas station owners. That’s a tough business right now as you are continuously battling less and less volume. These high gas prices now pushed even more people to jump to electric. I would think they have to start going hybrid…gas and electric to survive.
Bigger question: who is going to pay for roads now that gas volume is on a downtrend?
Combine that with wfh. If wfh sticks, and commercial properties die, who is going to pay all those taxes commercial owners paid?
Get ready to pay much higher taxes people. Everything has a cost and consequence. There is no free ride.
jj lives:
https://nypost.com/2022/07/08/man-cracks-penis-during-sex-diagnosed-with-eggplant-deformity/
Bigger question: who is going to pay for roads now that gas volume is on a downtrend?
The democrats will form a committee to discuss which consultants should be hired to research ways to create new tax streams to fund teams and think tanks that can document which industries and private income generators should be taxed at higher rates so that selected road projects can be over-budgeted accordingly. To a democrat, the term, “good-paying jobs” is always the byproduct of increased taxes and ancillary waste.
PS – Ancillary Waste: good name for a punk band. This might beat all other names discussed recently.
Mike says:
July 8, 2022 at 6:58 am
Question For Mike S from yesterday you said your portable generator can also run your heat. Do you have a newer boiler / furnace with a circuit board? Any issues?
————-
My boiler is from 1970s I am pretty sure, it is running on natural gas and the pilot light stays on when the power goes out. It is just enough power for the thermostat to communicate to pop it on or off
There’s virtually nothing that can be done if a prosecutor refuses to bring charges. As you and I have said, it’s the entire system not just the police that needs to be reformed.
My ‘favorite’ part was not when the prosecutor threatened to bring charges against the victim, but when her voice changed significantly when she was caught in her bold face lie around the 24 min mark.
Phoenix says:
July 8, 2022 at 10:31 am
Joyce,
That’s how it works. Just like animal farm.
If it were not for body cameras and cell phone cameras we would not even know this happened.
There is so much hubris there that even with things like this being filmed you can see how they stick up their noses at the same law they attempt to apply on us plebs.
I am still seeing total trash around me for $700k-$900k range (mid/western essex). Busy roads, completely outdated houses, next to huge powerlines, makeshift additions that don’t fit in with the architecture of the house. If I had a bigger lot I would definitely expand my house rather than move eventually, but alas I’ll never have room for a two car garage here which is something i’d really like
Fast : Article in Marketwatch, co op/ condo sales appear to be slowing dramatically in Manhattan.
I’m seeing lots of stay-put-renovations in my neighborhood.
Pools, backyard build outs still going on. Additions, exterior upgrades – fascias/siding/dormers type things. There must have been a big sale on pavers, because there are like 4 or 5 new paver driveways/walkways around the block.
House diagonal from me just did a big interior gut reno, kitchens, baths, redid the backyard., refurbed the pool. Easily $150k worth of work. Kind of crazy since they’ve got 2 kids in high school, clearly heading off to college soon. Again, clear they are intending to stay put.
House across the street, the son moved back home from CT with his wife and fam to live with mom, but it’s clear they are intending to stay, doing a lot of work as well.
makeshift additions that don’t fit in with the architecture of the house.
Sounds like West Orange.
Home of the “what the f*ck was the builder thinking (because it’s obvious you didn’t hire an architect)” reno.
Also, the ever popular NJ Contemporonial.
Nothing I like better than a “farmhouse” kitchen in a cheese wedge contemporary. Bonus points for wallpaper borders with cows.
Bigger question: who is going to pay for roads now that gas volume is on a downtrend?
Maybe we could bring in some of those out of state firms to show us how to construct roads for the cost they do.
Bigger question: who is going to pay for roads now that gas volume is on a downtrend?
This is NJ, the answer is blatantly obvious.
You’ll be required to annually re-register your vehicle at the DMV, where they will do an ODO readout and hand you a bill for the miles driven. They likely won’t let you retitle a car without ensuring back-payment for the untaxed mileage.
The fee per mile will be based on the vehicle class and weight. Big SUVs will pay a premium per mile driven. Commercial vehicles will be absolutely slaughtered.
Out of state drivers will have to pay a toll surcharge, as well as pay a different price at the pump.
Any other ways we can make this absurdly complicated and be able to build a completely new bureaucracy to support, we will do.
I honestly don’t know who moves to west orange. The taxes are insane for the prestige level of the town, lots of shady border areas, schools are not great.
Every verona house i’ve gone in from 700k to 900k were absolutely trashed from what I can only imagine is a rampage of children running through continuously over the last 20 years. Add in the $20k taxes and the $150K-200K in renovations and enjoy yourself.
I don’t mind outdated houses as long as they are maintained.
I drove past a house in North Caldwell yesterday, half the street had moldy roofs, shutters falling off, old cars on the lawn that clearly havent run in years… $900K + houses – what the fuck?
Those are free spare parts!
Reenact Sanford & Son in blackface. They love that kind of thing in North Caldwell.
“This is the big one!”
Grim, check my posts below from the other day…yup, absolutely.
grim says:
July 8, 2022 at 12:50 pm
I’m seeing lots of stay-put-renovations in my neighborhood.
The Great Pumpkin says:
July 2, 2022 at 7:16 pm
Already happening all over north jersey. Wayne is already there.
“My suburban Boston hometown was pretty stagnant for the 20 years after my family first moved to it. Seeing bougie Xennials increasingly displace townie Boomers becomes more and more noticeable every year.”
The Great Pumpkin says:
July 2, 2022 at 7:17 pm
When I moved to wayne 11 years ago, mostly boomers in houses they haven’t updated in a long time. Most of that has been bought up and updated.
Renovations always occur at the top of housing markets. Rather than spend $100 to $200K to get another bedroom, it becomes cheaper to build it.
Lol yup.
grim says:
July 8, 2022 at 12:59 pm
Bigger question: who is going to pay for roads now that gas volume is on a downtrend?
This is NJ, the answer is blatantly obvious.
Been happening for years now in wayne every time a boomer leaves.
Libturd says:
July 8, 2022 at 1:37 pm
Renovations always occur at the top of housing markets. Rather than spend $100 to $200K to get another bedroom, it becomes cheaper to build it.
Lib,
Telling you, wait for the mania stage, this isn’t the top of the market. If you have to sell, you have to sell, but this baby is going higher in a few years.
I remember i got laughed at on this blog way back in 2013 or 2014 when i said my house would be worth a million in the next housing run. Sounded outrageous at the time, i know, but i nailed it. Everyone was busting my balls that i overpayed…i was like just wait and see.
So far it seems to be a consensus from what i read that the market will fall in the fall and rocket after the elections. Even our resident stock guru, lib, is on the same page. Just throwing it out there…
Grim,
Alps road is night and day since I first moved here. That road was littered with chit when i first moved, now almost everything has been sold and updated. Wild.
Btw, wtf are they doing with hamburg construction at alps. What a waste of money…was not needed at all. God knows how much the county spent buying out land. Jerkoffs.
I’m surprised nobody has commented on The New Yorker’s recent article on Ron DeSantis. I read it as a warning from the left to the left to take this guy more seriously than they took Trump.
https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2022/06/27/can-ron-desantis-displace-donald-trump-as-the-gops-combatant-in-chief
And while they’re at it, they can show us how to setup a toll by plate system for a $1/bill administrative fee.
BRT says:
July 8, 2022 at 12:56 pm
Maybe we could bring in some of those out of state firms to show us how to construct roads for the cost they do.
For those following my charts. Here is this weeks update. It looks like we’ve tested and bounced off of 11K twice now. Third time is usually the charm. We’ve only retraced slightly more than half of the quadrant that represents the most recent peak and valley. Until it crosses higher than 12,150, the downtrend remains intact and orderly. The next move up or down should be very telling. In other news, the ten year seems to be edging her way back into the spotlight. Remember she peaked around 3.4 and is now sitting around 3.1. The next .75 point hike just might make her rise a bit. And the market fall a bit.
https://photos.app.goo.gl/W5QdZRsC2NhKPbPQ9
Thanks, Lib. Much appreciated.
Lib: CPI is the trigger. Fed is going to be decided by then. Also earnings
Always a price to pay…f that. Show me the money…rather go in and get paid more.
“The widespread shift to remote and hybrid work during the pandemic has coincided with the labor shortage and associated Great Resignation, when workers have taken advantage of the most power they’ve had in decades. But what if remote work is keeping salaries down, too?
That’s just what a new paper published by the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) argues. “The Shift to Remote Work Lessens Wage-Growth Pressures,” authored by three professors and two researchers from the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, says the shift to remote work really may lead to slower wage growth.
Remote work has an innate “amenity value,” comparable to company-provided lunch or discounted gym membership, explain the researchers. The value of remote work is taking the time that workers once spent commuting to an office and giving it back to spend with themselves and their family. There’s a price for that, the paper argues, and it could explain this year’s 3% decline in hourly earnings, as the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported in May.
In the paper, the NBER researchers said they’re “hard-pressed” to find a positive amenity-value shock as huge as remote work; they peg its amenity value on wage growth at about two percentage points over the past two years. That’s the cumulative, one-time effect of transitioning to persistently high levels of working from home.
A whopping 38% of the nearly 600 companies surveyed by the researchers said they’ve offered more remote roles in the past year due to “moderate wage-growth pressures,” and 41% expect to do so in the coming year. In other words, to alleviate pressure from employees on wages, companies are turning to the “perk” of remote work instead.
This is likely little comfort to remote workers, namely because working from home doesn’t necessarily mean they’re saving money.” -fortune
https://apple.news/A4X8tP6XvSTuYKomlOX5alw
And wfh adds to the deflationary pressure…so expect the Fed to have to lower rates more in the future to try to maintain growth/inflation with all this debt. Inevitable.
Aka going to stick in your ass like I was screaming on this blog for the past year and a half. And here we are…hope you are happy 3b.
“A whopping 38% of the nearly 600 companies surveyed by the researchers said they’ve offered more remote roles in the past year due to “moderate wage-growth pressures,” and 41% expect to do so in the coming year. In other words, to alleviate pressure from employees on wages, companies are turning to the “perk” of remote work instead.”
Why would you give up location based labor market security where you have to compete with people in said location. Instead, now you have to compete with billions.
These people better not cry now, you are the ones that wanted this. F’ing idiots.
Chgo: A little chatter increase in the futures market that the Fed goes for a full point at the late July meeting.
Twitter deal dead.
Wonder how much that cost Elon.
He should keep his mouth shut next time…cost him 1 billion at the minimum.
Twitter board now pursuing legal action.
Human nature. Got to love it. At first they didn’t want to sell, and he forced their hand. Now he don’t want to, and they will force his hand. Bottom line, people are insane. Human nature never fails…human nature is a bitch.
At the end of the day, it does seem elon does know how to pull out after all…
I’m still expecting the majority of the market to get slammed…but high growth(esp bio tech) and crypto very well might be in stage 1 now.
“Poster-child of the high growth space $ARKK –
Been in a relentless downtrend since November, but first weekly close above 10-week ema.
Early days but the tide seems to be turning…on watch for a big rally in growth stocks.
Many high growth stocks have already climbed above their 10-week emas and are now consolidating above that level.
This is in stark contrast to the Nov-May period when each rally failed at the 10-week ema.
When stocks stop going down on bad news, worth paying attention.”
Wow
https://patch.com/new-jersey/wayne/s/ibin8/microbreweries-in-peril-due-to-new-nj-restrictions-industry-says?utm_source=nearby-news&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=alert
what, did you just figure out NJ is hostile to business?
The state trying to f’k me on my real estate business with that inspection. They gave me a list, but a few items on the list were vague. I had no idea what they wanted me to address. Well, had the re-inspection and the f’ers are trying to charge me $675 dollars for not addressing it. Meanwhile, i called a million times and left messages. No one called me back to tell me what exactly they meant.
Left a voicemail today explaining my situation and hopefully they resolve it. I explained to them that I am not a slum lord and haven’t raised my tenants rent in years…and this how the state repays me? By trying to rob me? Hopefully they address and fix it. Otherwise, I’m willing to go to local news sources and make a stinker out of this on principle. Even willing to lose money and hire a lawyer. I’m slowly learning what I didn’t understand as a defender of govt during my social!st days as a young 30 something on this blog. F’ing crooks. I’m being shaken down by the system.
F’ed me out of over 20 grand with the sewer fiasco that wasn’t even on my property. Now this. Enough is enough.
If i lose, im selling into the mania stage in two years. Cutting my losses.
And $675 is nothing to me…it’s principle.
I spend 300 dollars on a family dinner…
I made my own chicken drunken noodle and vege chicken version too and thai long beans. Out of pocket, probably cost $15. To order this from LaMoons? $100.
I threw a big hunk of fresh salmon in with brown sugar, hot pepper flakes & olive oil –
Sounds good