Hang on to your mortgage

From CNBC:

Inflation rose 0.1% in August even with sharp drop in gas prices

Inflation rose more than expected in August as rising shelter and food costs offset a drop in gas prices, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Tuesday.

The consumer price index, which tracks a broad swath of goods and services, increased 0.1% for the month and 8.3% over the past year. Excluding volatile food and energy costs, CPI rose 0.6% from July and 6.3% from the same month in 2021.

Economists had been expecting headline inflation to fall 0.1% and core to increase 0.3%, according to Dow Jones estimates. The respective year-over-year forecasts were for 8% and 6% gains.

Energy prices fell 5% for the month, led by a 10.6% slide in the gasoline index. However, those declines were offset by increases elsewhere.

The food index increased 0.8% in August and shelter costs, which make up about one-third of the weighting in the CPI, jumped 0.7% and are up 6.2% from a year ago.

Medical care services also showed a big gain, rising 0.8% on the month and up 5.6% from August 2021. New vehicle prices also climbed, increasing 0.8% though used vehicles fell 0.1%.

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56 Responses to Hang on to your mortgage

  1. Hold my beer says:


  2. Fast Eddie says:

    I walked through the grocery section of Walmart yesterday to see if prices are more tolerable. No better than anyone else. As for medical care services mentioned above, that’s a whole other topic that’s too early in the morning to get into. I think every service and product we touch just has some random pricing on it. Either pay it or take a hike. Investments and salaries are getting crushed, everything is priced out of proportion, crime is rampant… what a mess.

  3. Ex says:

    …and Donnie’s fuuuuuuuucked. Have a good cry Gary.

  4. Phoenix says:

    Just make more money, or charge more for your services.

    No Problem.


  5. Phoenix says:

    Didn’t even know NJ has porcupines. Or that they could take out a pitbull.

    Or that pitbull surgery cost 20k.


  6. Chicago says:

    2Y 380
    10Y 346

  7. leftwing says:

    PPI out. Most measures +/- a rounding error of expectations. Nearly all better than prior months with many high water marks in March.

    Know it’s not a popular opinion and everyone for some reason seems to want to run around with their hair on fire but we’re through peak inflation and trending down guys.

    Doesn’t mean it can’t go higher again year-over-year, but that would require a reversal of what is actually occurring out there.

    Main issue I can see is core relative to everything else if you if you feel compelled to worry about something. Showed up both in CPI/PPI.

    It’s up to you if you want to trade the market actually in front of you or the one you perceive should exist. Can offer an opinion on the impact to your portfolio of each approach if required lol.

  8. Grim says:

    $20k not so surprising.

    Good animal hospital in Nj provides better care than a human hospital.

  9. Fast Eddie says:


    What does Q-Tip mean?

  10. Phoenix says:

    President with white hair.

  11. Chicago says:

    Left: personally, I don’t care about the massive rate of inflation that has occurred, which is unsustainable. Objectively nominal prices of goods and services out there are painfully high. I actually want deflation. I don’t want to pay for this crap. It is numbing. I can’t imagine the experience for those on the fringe.

    That said, P/E’s are historically elevated, though justified given cost of capital (FOR NOW). But these E’s are bullshit. I think that sitting on our hands ain’t so bad.

  12. 3b says:

    Fast: Q tip is Alan for elderly person.

  13. 3b says:

    Slang for elderly person.

  14. Phoenix says:

    Just means skinny guy with white hair. Had a co-worker in his 20’s who turned grey very early. It was his nickname.

  15. Phoenix says:

    Should this be allowed?

    97 members of Congress or their families bought or sold stock that may have been a conflict of interest
    Of the 435 House members, 183 traded stocks through themselves or their immediate family members from 2019 to 2021
    At least 97 bought or sold stocks, bonds or other financial assets that directly intersected with their congressional work
    The trades that intersect with committee work are split evenly on partisan lines – 49 Republicans and 48 Democrats

  16. Fast Eddie says:

    Let me get this straight: The O’Biden administration held a party on the White House lawn yesterday to celebrate a massive spending bill called “The Inflation Reduction” act as James Taylor sang a song about suicide, heroin addiction and mental institutions while the stock market suffered a historical top ten crash as inflation reports continue to pound Americans. I’m not sure what’s worse, the vegetable they call president or his handlers who are as dumb as rocks.

  17. BRT says:

    When my dog, who was in her latter years broker her leg, they said it was better to get it amputated. They put her under anesthesia getting ready for the surgery and she passed away immediately. They sent me a bill for $7k, I responded back, “is this a joke?”. I told them I’d be willing to pay the cost of the shot, and that was it.

  18. leftwing says:

    “Objectively nominal prices of goods and services out there are painfully high. I actually want deflation.”

    Hahaha, not going to happen. Don’t need to explain that to you, it’s why inflation is such an insidious killer of financial health. That 32 oz bottle of Gatorade I used to buy for $2.29 that is now 28 oz and $2.89? Never going back to 32/2.29…Humpty-dumpty does not get put back together….

    “That said, P/E’s are historically elevated…But these E’s are bullshit. I think that sitting on our hands ain’t so bad.”

    Not going to give advice other than to say is I agree and my starting point is always big picture…my world….estimates for SPX for 2023 were/are $245, at my 4280 line that is 17.5x, which is rich, especially for the rising rate environment…so I discount earnings down to $200, nearly a 20% haircut, and throw a 16 handle on it for 3200…my downside. Pretty much conforms to worst case scenarios out there.

    Separately, everyone seems to have lines at 3800-3900, major area of support, mine is 3850.

    So, on the index, until further notice when the market actually tells you what it intends to do, when abnormal events present I’ll dump aggressively near 42oo, go long (usually through writes) around the 3850, and price those writes at 20% OTM which when the index is at 3900 gets me protection to…drumroll….3200….

    Same with stocks, except I’ll look at it from a P/E basis…ie. write puts at levels where if in the money I’m at a P/E that’s reasonable, especially for companies that have already adjusted forward guidance…..

  19. No One says:

    I wonder if they will do a remake of Old Yeller? Here’s how I see hollywood making it now: the dog is now played by a black poodle who was adopted by a genderqueer couple after he saved them from MAGA attackers who ravage Chelsea. When the dog later fell victim to his parents’ monkeypox outbreak, in the end instead of putting the dog out of its misery with a quick gunshot (as in the original), they hold a candlelight vigil at a pet hospital while it’s frothing at the mouth and suffering from massive anal fissures, spending $15,000, after which it dies overnight anyway. Sponsored by Freshpet.

  20. leftwing says:

    “Should this be allowed? 97 members of Congress or their families bought or sold stock that may have been a conflict of interest…”

    Ask any banker, a profession Congress seems pre-disposed to denigrate…

    Prohibited from trading any company in my sector.

    Prohibited from trading any ‘restricted’ security (potentially pending work in-house)

    Prohibited from trading any ‘grey list’ security (firm thinking about thinking about work for that company)

    No option trading.

    Minimum holding periods for any trade.

    Accounts are at your institution only and each trade has to be pre-cleared based on the above criteria.

    But, hey, why should Congress be held to any proximity of behavior practiced even by ‘banksters’?

    And these rules on bankers are decades old, not anything new….

  21. leftwing says:


    Epic. Thanks for the laugh.

  22. Chicago says:

    Left: USD? FX must be kicking the shit out of everyone, maybe it juices certain big US footprint companies that have non-USD expenses.

    It just feels as if there is great resilience and that is holding us up. But the gas gauge light just turned on. I don’t see the place to refill.

    Lots of stupid shit out there. Railroad strike? So tone deaf

    DC is killing us too. Murphy too.

    Talk of reversing the bag ban?

    No thoughtful leadership. It starts to really hurt us.

  23. BidenIsTheGOAT says:

    Eddie, exactly they are partying. Things are going exactly to plan.

    The policy fallout hasn’t been popular so launch another hoax and get the propaganda industry to back you. The sheep are hungry and will fall in line again.

    Call anyone who dissents an enemy of the state and send your brown shirts to intimidate them. Hope for the best come November.

  24. Fast Eddie says:

    I fully expect the democrats to start touting abortion as an inflation fighting tool; one less mouth to feed and clothe equals more supply and less demand. You get to keep your right to slaughter your baby while fighting inflation. That campaign ad will run during commercial breaks of the that new version of Old Yeller.

  25. Libturd says:

    No thoughtful leadership.

    I disagree. They are extremely thoughtful, when it comes to ways to enrich themselves.

    “That said, P/E’s are historically elevated…But these E’s are bullshit. I think that sitting on our hands ain’t so bad.”

    Agree wholeheartedly. Need E’s to shrink. That’s what I meant when I said to watch for corporations to suffer. Once we see that you’ll know the bottom is in sight. Until then, sideways trading.

  26. Libturd says:

    Eddie, think of all of the gynecologists’ who need to eat.

  27. chicagofinance says:

    Where are the job losses? It’s as if there is a conspiracy to hold off until after the elections. Imagine people getting whacked left and right…… guess who would get crushed in the polls?

    Libturd says:
    September 14, 2022 at 10:34 am
    Agree wholeheartedly. Need E’s to shrink. That’s what I meant when I said to watch for corporations to suffer. Once we see that you’ll know the bottom is in sight. Until then, sideways trading.

  28. Very Stable Genius says:

    “Man who crushed officer in door frame during Jan. 6 riot convicted of 7 felonies

    Patrick McCaughey III, 25, faces decades in prison.“

  29. leftwing says:

    chi, agree….fx, at these levels, I’m willing to look through. Railroad strike, etc. are among the one off events that can derail trends and out of our control and prediction…

    I’m evaluating situations on the basis of 20% down from here – is the decline because of multiple contraction, or because of earnings decline?…What’s nice is I don’t need to be smart and nail that answer, I just need to not be materially wrong on the up to 20% down from here.

    Recall, everyone’s underwear is all twisted up basically because the Fed is not doing what they believe the Fed should be doing right now…and, newsflash, the Fed won’t. Accept that reality or bitch because they are not doing what you think they ought to…choice is yours.

    Again I’m pretty clear eyed…sell 4200 unless in a definitive uptrend, write at 3900 to take in ST income of 40%-80% annualized with a buffer to 3200, and back up the truck for LT buys near 3200 (probably start buying pretty hard at a 3400 equivalent). Same for individual shares based on p/e equivalents….especially for companies that pre-announce.

    Personally, as we sit here today, I intend to be in the market much more strongly going into November…midterm elections should be a positive for the market (basically always are), we’ll be through two more hikes, and we’ll be through earnings where I would expect company adjustments for 2023 and commensurate share price declines (hopefully to my 3200 equivalent level).

    Not a lot of time between now and then for all the hand wringers…..especially to catch that first (large) leg up….

    Pulling back to that big picture I like so much I fully expect the market to be substantially higher in June 2023, likely earlier. I’m using the levels and catalysts above (especially projected FFR/YOY CPI curves) to be in for the ride up.

  30. Libturd says:

    Fantastic analysis Leftwing. Again, we are in sync.

  31. BRT says:

    The paper bag ban was put in because the grocery stores lobbied for it. They thought they were going to profit more as they removed a cost. On day 1, people took all their baskets. Now, they are using the fact that they have to have their own bags as an opportunity to shoplift. I’m pretty sure, this was a stupid move on their part and they are losing more money than they ever planned to gain. Now, we’ll bring back paper, which is actually the most environmentally responsible way of bagging to begin with.

  32. Libturd says:

    Another example of our bought government.

  33. crushednjmillenial says:

    1:43 . . .

    If the grocery stores lobbied for plastic bag ban, then they are crazy. I would have imagined they would lobby for allowing plastic bags more vigourously than even the plastic bag manufacturers.

    How many people have declined to purchase things because they simply couldn’t carry it? (for example, on my normal car-based grocery trips, I have reusable bags in my car so I either bring them into the store or I drive my cart out to the car and then unlaod from cart into the reusable bags so i can carry the groceries to my apartment after parking my car. But, if I am on a walking-based trip, I need to only buy as much as I can carry.)

    If I am a grocer, I want big carts, free bags, and easy parking. I want people loading the cart with impunity and swiping that credit card. I always thought that the grocers would have preffered that the government, instead of banning plastic bags, simply institute a minimum bag charge. CT has it this way, I believe. Only paper bags, but you need to pay per bag. So, some people bring reusable bags. If you forget, you buy an economical amount of paper bags.

  34. No One says:

    Most of all the bag ban symbolizes the petty tyranny of elitist governor Murphy. He doesn’t give a damn, he never goes shopping himself, instead dining out and has a private chef when he eats at his mansion. So he disturbs millions of people’s daily routines for the worse, then congratulates himself at his Italian Villa for “saving the earth” and “having the back” of the little people, who are now allowed to buy pot from state-regulated outlets to help dull their miseries.

  35. BidenIsTheGOAT says:

    It’s full blown banana republic. Joe is the first third world president.

    He has a party to celebrate inflation reduction the day after it shoots through the roof. Then he flies for $180k over to Delaware to vote in a primary after he was there two days so and could have voted then.

    Maybe James Taylor can write a song about it.

  36. Hughesrep says:

    Why doesn’t Biden just hit the “Inflation Down” button on the Resolute desk?

    Maybe it got whisked away to Mar A Lago or buried in Bedminster.

  37. BidenIsTheGOAT says:

    The big guy doesnt worry about inflation. When things gets tight he sends Hunter out to make a deal. Need a loophole to circumvent trade embargo, pesky regulator get in the way, Hunter would be glad to help.

    Yeah, it compromises our national security but all the insiders get a piece so no problem.

  38. Ex says:

    9:33 True he’s no kId rOck

  39. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Shocker. Can’t trust people. Human nature is a bitch. Why WFH will never work for the majority of workers. Can’t trust them…


  40. No One says:

    12 Myths about the Inflation Reduction Act refuted
    Myth 1: The IRA will lower the cost of energy
    Truth: The IRA will rapidly raise the cost of energy via
    * Policies that coerce us into using costly, unreliable “green” options
    * Policies that increase fossil fuel costs
    * More power for energy-obstructing bureaucrats and activists

    Myth 4: The IRA won’t harm electricity reliability.
    Truth: The IRA worsens 3 major factors already causing a reliability crisis.
    1. Rewarding unreliable power
    2. Prematurely shutting down coal plants
    3. Forcing EV use on an already-inadequate grid

    It’s a reliability nightmare.

  41. Hold my beer says:

    Anyone think EV cars could be this century’s version of Betamax, 8 tract, and laser disc?

    I thought the big Japanese car makers are experimenting with hydrogen powered cars in Japan.

  42. chicagofinance says:

    It keeps his dufus son out of jail.

    Murphy is the ultimate limousine liberal.

    No One says:
    September 14, 2022 at 2:24 pm
    who are now allowed to buy pot from state-regulated outlets to help dull their miseries.

  43. leftwing says:

    fun with charts….

    Good ones pg 25 on…front page illustrative…

    Look at them with an eye to how price and EPS-P/E interact, and when…ie, does price lead earnings changes or follow and by how long….


  44. chicagofinance says:

    juice: went to a function at the new Charlie’s. It is eh….. if it were a normal place, it would be enjoyable because it is brand new. However, it seems pointlessly pricey and the food is perfectly fine. It appears to be a place where you go to show that you are willing to spend money to be seen sitting there. Lot’s of 60-something, 70-somethings.

    If it was a nice spot, ok, but it isn’t in Bay Head like the other one, not one a nice plot of land either…….. Nicholas without the food quality.

    BTW – Gabriella’s sucks…. not sure the hype?

  45. TakingThePlungeY says:


    I’m taking the plunge on a Y around December +/-

    I need a new car. Junked an old one already. My cars last a long time. What kills them is the roads around here and rust.

    The premium that I’ll pay over ICE I look at it as a Creativity and Genius tax to move humanity forward over the banality and mediocrity of the status quo. musk has to be rewarded just for what he accomplished with SpaceX and triple rewarded because he moved the game field to a new game against the power that be with EV and self driving tech. Plus I figure they will get self driving pat down right around my senility kicks in.

    I like tech. I’m comfortable with the hard sciences and engineering. I understand what I’m getting myself into. I expect more frequent tire, alignment and suspension expenses but don’t have to worry about oil changes and alike. Had a Hybrid Escape and Tahoe. Love them. Around 2015 wanted another hybrid Tahoe but GM stop making them.

  46. No One says:

    I’m not an EV fanboy but I don’t think think they are going to die away, instead there will be more of them, due to a combination of regulations and subsidies, and over time they will keep getting better and could even be superior for a increasing number of use cases. Right now they still aren’t near production cost parity with comparable ICE cars. At the premium end, people don’t really care, and that’s what sells in the US. There are some cheap EVs in China that are kind of like glorified golf carts but those would never pass regulatory muster in the US.
    Hydrogen just isn’t that energy efficient to produce. Think of hydrogen as lossy energy storage, and its more lossy than EVs. I don’t anticipate Hydrogen will ever win share from personal BEVs. Either it’s producing lots of CO2 to produce H (via natural gas), or it’s green (solar or wind powered) and very expensive. I see people predicting its use case not in personal cars but in large ships, airplanes, and long haul trucks, where batteries are impractical.

  47. Hughesrep says:

    Charlies in Bay Head is just meh to me. Didn’t know they opened another.

    Gabriellas was terrible. Wife likes one of their salads so she dragged me in, I wont go back. The best thing I had was garlic bread.

  48. Grim says:

    Pretty much every pickup maker is making an EV to try to compete with Ford now.

    It’s a tipping point, even more so when you consider that this would have been expected to be the segment least likely to adopt.

  49. Hold my beer says:

    Taking the plunge

    I like the looks and specs of the Kia EV 6. But leaning towards getting a Sorento, Santa Fe, or crv hybrid in the spring. Very few public chargers in my area.

  50. chicagofinance says:

    Hughesrep: partial to Rum Runner. Red Rock is a nice casual spot.
    To be clear, I give no points for alliteration.

  51. Very Stable Genius says:

    “ Brett Favre stole $5 million from Mississippi to build a new stadium for his daughter’s college

    Favre is worth $110 MILLION

    The median annual income in Jackson—where there is still no clean drinking water—is $40,064

    Republicans steal from the poor to give to the obscenely rich”

  52. RentL0rd says:

    Poor pit bull. That must have been a painful death. My dog killed 4 groundhogs over the years – and the fights are nasty. There would have been more deaths had I not pulled her away from some other fights. At 11 yo she’s getting slower and I worry she may not always win.

  53. Libturd says:

    On the EV tip. I think the increased quiet, better acceleration and increased reliability with significantly fewer moving/rubbing parts will be the selling point over time. I’ll wait. Praying there will be some leftover 2022 Tellurides, but I doubt that will be the case.

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