From Bloomberg:
Remote Work Drove Over 60% of House-Price Surge, Fed Study Finds
The shift to working from home drove more than half of the increase in house and rent prices during the pandemic and will likely drive up costs and inflation going forward as the shift becomes permanent, according to research from the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
“The transition to remote work because of the COVID-19 pandemic has been a key driver of the recent surge in housing prices,” economists Augustus Kmetz and John Mondragon, of the San Francisco Fed, and Johannes Wieland of the University of California, San Diego, wrote in a note published Monday.
House prices rose 24% in the two years ended November 2021, the authors wrote. More than 60% of that increase is attributable to the rise in work from home during the pandemic — a trend that has persisted, with 30% of work still being done from home as of last month.
“This suggests that the fundamentals of housing demand have changed, such that the persistence of remote work is likely to affect the future path of real estate prices and inflation,” the economists wrote.
The authors, who adjusted housing data to account for the migration from expensive cities to more affordable areas that occurred during the pandemic, found that each 1 percentage point increase in remote work results in about a 0.9 percentage point increase in house prices. The impact on rent prices has been identical.
From Barrons:
7% Mortgage Rates Are Almost Here. What That Means for Home Sellers.
For Hazel Shakur, a Redfin real estate agent working in the suburbs of Washington, D.C., the end of summer normally means a pickup in consultation requests from prospective sellers looking to list before traffic slows down in the winter.
But not this year. “I polled other listing agents in my area, and sure enough, we went into this weekend with no appointments,” Shakur said. “A lot of sellers are very reluctant about selling their house.”
Buyers, too, are pulling the break as home prices soften. “No one wants to be the person who buys the house for too much,” Shakur said.
Such reluctance comes amid a broader housing market slowdown as rising mortgage rates cut into home affordability and keep some would-be sellers from moving. Further rises could be on the way. Depending on the trajectory of inflation and the Federal Reserve’s response through monetary policy, an ascent to 7% isn’t out of the question.
Mortgage rates have been in the spotlight lately, and for good reason. The average rate on a 30-year fixed mortgage has more than doubled this year, rocketing higher in the wake of August’s hotter-than-expected inflation report and in anticipation of the Federal Reserve’s September FOMC meeting. Last week’s average rate on a 30-year fixed mortgage was 6.29%, Freddie Mac said—the highest such rate since 2008.
The average weekly rate still has a way to go before it hits 7%, but such a rise isn’t off the table. Whether or not mortgage rates hit 7% comes down to the Federal Reserve’s fight against inflation, says Keith Gumbinger, vice president of mortgage website HSH.
Should inflation soften, “we’ll have a chance to stay away from 7%,” Gumbinger says. “If the inflation news in the next couple of weeks isn’t good, or the economy continues to show more growth than the Fed wants to see, or if we have a blowout jobs report, there is a chance we could push more closely toward 7% ,” Gumbinger said.
It should lower the house prices and rents, in which to attract young workers.
Trickle down Reaganomics is destroying the UK:
“I was very pessimistic about the consequences of utterly irresponsible UK policy on Friday. But, I did not expect markets to get so bad so fast.
A strong tendency for long rates to go up as the currency goes down is a hallmark of situations where credibility has been lost.”
Larry Summers
Hey guys, there is a nursing shortage. Come work with me. Hard honest work for a day’s pay. Plenty of single women as well.
Goldman Sachs fires bankers at all levels after dishing out bonuses and hiking salaries during pandemic – as the bank is expected to record more than 40 percent drop in earnings this year
Employees at all levels were affected by the cull, sources said – with the brunt of the effort being felt by senior-to-mid-level staffers in offices across the globe
Good time to buy an Aston Martin?
Very Unstable Poster,
Your struggle to find relevancy is reflected in your obscurity.
A lot of sellers are very reluctant about selling their house.
Rate doesn’t matter around here. I pass a house with a for sale sign, pass it days later and it has an under contract sign. Draw a 30 mile radius around NYC and anything short of a meteor strike doesn’t make much of a difference.
So I guess before remote work those people lived in their offices.
Fast: I don’t know about that. Not much in my town for sale probably around 20 to 25, but they have been sitting there. A couple of last minute tear downs and rebuilds, where they are furiously working to get them done and on the market. We ain’t special here, that’s part of the problem, we think we are special, but we are not.
3b,
401k trounced, rates highest in 15 years, inflation up 9% year on year, raises only up 4% yet asking prices all time highs. Also, WFH is starting to become 4 times week or full onsite. Country catching the flu but NYC area housing saying just a sneeze.
What is more telling is that Alpine has 47 properties for sale. That is the true definition of “Sell to who?”
https://www.realtor.com/realestateandhomes-search/Alpine_NJ/sby-1
I did look at the house next door to the cheap $620K. Cute, small and while the purchase prices is well over the same in other towns. Taxes are nothing at $3300
Fast NY Metro area always the last to know the party is over, we have some wealthier cash buyers, NYC has devolved which has caused increased suburban demand. The FL market will explode first and then we’ll be 6 months to 1 year later. FL has softened but the market is still frothy. Right now the broader economy is heaping pain mainly on the poor at the moment, the rest of us won’t feel it for a while but it is coming for everyone.
The recession is going to hurt all of us.
The WFH driving real estate prices have more to do with some of these fringe markets across the US.
Remember, real estate prices are ALWAYS set at the margin. Market prices are set by the small percentage of homes that trade during the year. If an outsider comes in and buys a high priced property that would have sat otherwise, it moves the market.
Hell, even appraisers only use 3 comps max. And even just 1 comp can move the number materially.
I’ve seen all kinds of stories of people moving to rural communities either playing out like Tom Hanks in the Money Pit, or being a sucker for spec properties specifically built and marketed to out-of-towners.
2Y touched 433
10Y touched 397
Just for context. WTF?
Uncle ChiFi
Would you tell us the ten-year story?
Fast NY Metro area always the last to know the party is over, we have some wealthier cash buyers…
I seriously feel like I can’t get a reading on the direction at all. I’m looking at these no frills houses in Garfield, Lodi, etc. listed at 500K plus and with 20% down, which is a shit load of money for A LOT of people and rate at 6.5%, you’re looking at $3,600 plus per month in PITI. Add in food, utilities and every other obstacle life tosses at you and it confuses the hell out of me how people are swinging it. And to add to it, there’s no inventory.
I was down in AC yesterday. If you drive around the area near the Ocean resort (North Beach), which also happens to be where the nicest beaches are, there are sparsely placed single and multi family houses surrounded by open lots. This is the area that is definitely up and coming. If they actually build that gigantic indoor-outdoor waterpark next to Showboat/Lucky Snake, then you could easily buy a few of these homes and turn them into weekly rentals. You won’t find anything like this in NJ this close to the beach at these prices. Thinking about plucking one up at the housing valley with 3% down.
Like check these out.
https://www.realtor.com/realestateandhomes-detail/410-Atlantic-Ave_Atlantic-City_NJ_08401_M56455-58996
Only if you get it in “British racing green”.
Grim says:
September 27, 2022 at 7:54 am
Good time to buy an Aston Martin?
You will need 4 or 5 of these….
https://www.globalindustrial.com/p/878-biomedical-sharps-bio-hazard-disposal-stainless-steel?infoParam.campaignId=T9F&gclid=EAIaIQobChMIqdG9hq21-gIVLP7jBx2HoAkEEAQYASABEgKToPD_BwE
Libturd says:
September 27, 2022 at 11:33 am
I was down in AC yesterday. If you drive around the area near the Ocean resort (North Beach), which also happens to be where the nicest beaches are, there are sparsely placed single and multi family houses surrounded by open lots. This is the area that is definitely up and coming. If they actually build that gigantic indoor-outdoor waterpark next to Showboat/Lucky Snake, then you could easily buy a few of these homes and turn them into weekly rentals. You won’t find anything like this in NJ this close to the beach at these prices. Thinking about plucking one up at the housing valley with 3% down.
Like check these out.
https://www.realtor.com/realestateandhomes-detail/410-Atlantic-Ave_Atlantic-City_NJ_08401_M56455-58996
Bystander: Mtg rates will be at 7 percent shortly, highest in 20 years. That will be a shock to a whole generation. Inflation still out of control. And credit card balances have increased dramatically. It’s just ugly all around! And, it could have been prevented. As for everyone back in the office, that’s won’t happen, and is not happening with anyone I know. Train parking lot by me is still 90 percent empty. Bring people back and have them pay commuting costs, and all the rest, with crappy raises? The smart companies won’t be doing that in my view.
3b,
Agree but I can assure that they are trying to get back in. I would probably have 30% raise but not doing 3 or 4 days in city. Hell, 7k of that will be train and subway costs annually. Add food and other city costs and that 30% erodes quickly. Not worth it.
Chi,
That would make a nice mailbox.
3b says:
September 27, 2022 at 12:07 pm
“As for everyone back in the office, that’s won’t happen…”
Anecdotal, but I’ve seen a significant, very noticeable uptick in NYC commute ‘volume’ over the past two weeks; see it on the bus, see it in the Port Auth, see it on the sidewalks, and see it in my office. Again, anecdotal, and I tend to agree that we’ll never get back to ‘normal’. But I think it’s indicative of the fact that many companies are making a ‘back to school’ push to get people into the office. It’ll be interesting to see if this one sticks, or peters-out like previous efforts.
Montclair stations are still empty.
2 days of morning rallies smashed. Closed the rest of my shorts. Those last two days were just luck.
Bomb headed for Tampa Bay
Potential for 15-20 inches of rain in the surrounding areas, just absolutely incredible.
The train lot by me is 75% full mostly during the week.
Small: I am sure it has increased, from where it was, but back to the old days won’t be happening. A few of my friends are doing the hybrid 2 or 3 home, and 2 or 3 in the office. They tell me nothing has changed insofar as productivity being better, or people glad to being back. They are not doing anything different, from home work wise, and still have zoom meetings.
People are also leaving promptly at 5:00 now or before to catch their trains/ bus, and they are working less than when they were home those days in the office. Plus they are losing money with the commuting and other costs
So those old timers in age or outlook who are demanding people come back, may get what they want short term, but long term will pay a price.
Take that back. They are half empty.
Gator’s sister lives in Tampa. She is currently driving to North Carolina.
Ocean there off Tampa is shallow that means an even greater storm surge inland.
If this BA 5 variant continues to sweep through we will see a reversal on WFH again, many people I know were out from work for a week, and were very sick these are people triple vaccinated too. The new reformulated booster has been out for less than a month, again it’s designed to block this new spike protein as the previous vaccines seem to be ineffective against BA 5.
Recall recently watching a docu on the Dali Museum in St Pete Florida; apparently the art was privately owned and the owners/heirs primary ‘requirement’ for the museum was that the works be safe from a cat 5 — so they essentially built a bunker. Looks like the design is going to get its first test…
https://www.floornature.com/architectural-solutions/concrete-and-steel-and-glass-bubble-dali-museum-st-petersbur-13968/#:~:text=Florida%2C%20by%20HOK-,The%20Dal%C3%AD%20Museum%20of%20St.,form%20glass%20and%20steel%20bubble.
3b
That is exactly right. I sit in office today and 3 of us all on different calls entire morning. We finally chatted then Indian guys went to lunch and now two are leaving at 3. Purely unless exercise as our tech team and stakeholders all over world.
Bystander: Agreed. My friends also told me more distractions in the office too then at home. One friend of mine his Boss senior senior guy , told him it’s just for show coming in the office, and when the leases are up, they plan to dramatically reduce their office space.
In other not news news, Chicago pension funds in trouble. And one year munis just below 3 percent!!
How do two separate pipelines that are supposed to be shutdown spring massive gas leaks at the same time? I thought these pipelines were shut down already? Seems the Germans were cheating on cutting gas imports from Russia. Did someone from our side, blow them up? It makes no sense that Russia would blow up it’s own pipeline since they had already shut down the gas flow or could at any time. I would have to believe very few navies have the capability although the depth does not seem to be all that great 150 ft or so in the baltic sea. Perhaps Poland did it? The German’s have not exactly been very forthcoming with military help to end this war sooner.
“Sweden’s Maritime Authority issued a warning about two leaks in the Nord Stream 1 pipeline, shortly after a leak on the nearby Nord Stream 2 pipeline was discovered that had prompted Denmark to restrict shipping in a five nautical mile radius.”
Sweden says they detected two explosions.
“STOCKHOLM, Sept 27 (Reuters) – A Swedish seismologist said on Tuesday he was certain the seismic activity detected at the site of the Nord Stream pipeline gas leaks in the Baltic Sea was caused by explosions and not earthquakes nor landslides.
Bjorn Lund, seismologist at the Swedish National Seismic Network at Uppsala University, said seismic data gathered by him and Nordic colleagues showed that the explosions took place in the water and not in the rock under the seabed.”
“Anecdotal, but I’ve seen a significant, very noticeable uptick in NYC commute ‘volume’ over the past two weeks…and I tend to agree that we’ll never get back to ‘normal’. But I think it’s indicative of the fact that many companies are making a ‘back to school’ push to get people into the office.”
Or, leverage has shifted….would be interesting to know what percentage of new commuters are in finance/IB…
If one is smart enough to clear that bar, one should also be smart enough to realize that if even Goldman is canning people one’s ass ought to be doing everything to retain one’s position on the totem pole. Useless or redundant actions included….
“In other not news news, Chicago pension funds in trouble. And one year munis just below 3 percent!!”
According to Pew, A state-by-state review of unfunded pension liabilities for fiscal 2019 shows:
After New Jersey (20.2% of personal income), unfunded pension obligations were highest in Illinois (19.4%), Hawaii (18.0%), Alaska (16.3%), and New Mexico (15.7%).
If Chicago’s went boom, then NJ’s will be close behind. Let me see what I can find out.
Hummm tinfoil hat time…from twitter. Members of European Parliament now blaming the USA for the explosions that may have caused the gas pipelines in the Baltic to spring massive leaks. Then there are folks blaming the Polish too.
Then there is my little bit of internet sleuthing I did …open source data of maritime traffic shows a German warship “Sachsen” passing thru near the pipelines when the explosions occurred last night what looks to be directly over the pipeline path.
Here is the map data of the ships path.
https://www.marinetraffic.com/en/ais/home/centerx:13.4/centery:54.8/zoom:7
Well juice it starves vlads war machine further but it also could turn opinion against supporting Ukraine. I think we’re going to see more government toppled across Europe before there is a military conclusion. Tightening the dollar while there is a global energy shortage seems awfully problematic.
Left: If the business has dried up,then the Bankers will be let go, especially the mid- level guys. The rain makers they will keep, but even there, if you can’t continue to make it rain, ultimately you will be let go.
In my days at GS they were not as brutal as now, but then again the firm was much smaller, and was a partnership, and did not have the tendency to over hire and then over fire. End of the day if you ain’t making it rain today, or if you are not getting the job done, you will be let go, no matter how much time you spend in the office.
Lib; Didn’t Murph shore up the pension back in 2020/1, or is this number after the shore up?
Juice,
2 Schools of thought.
Most probable, the Russians did it themselves, a false flag operation. Putin’s plan was to blackmail, bully and break unity of the rest of Europe to quit aiding Ukraine using energy during winter. That felt thru as Russia’s army turned to be a Potemkin Army. Most European countries have a plan now for the upcoming winter and by ’23-24 winter season will be in way better shape than this winter. Many of the countries have link to Norway’s North Sea pipeline and Liquid Gas terminals that are sourced from these pipelines. The fact is most of Europe is going to avoid dealing with Russia in the future as Putin showed his hand/power given to him by most countries depending on Russian energy. Putin knows that future Russian sales to Europe won’t happen until he is gone and even after that is not going to be the same ever as it was before the invasion.
Less likely, Ukraine did it. They have the know how. The motivation is to ensure there is no way back for middle of the road European countries to turn against Ukraine once winter starts and their people start complaining about energy shortages. Now Russia won’t have the leverage over those middle of the road countries.
At this point you could say, there is someone damaging undersea pipelines. Well where and who is next? If Russia is doing it, they are going to strike next at North Sea sourced pipelines to get screw up European countries’ plan. You can bet there will be a lot of subs patrolling those pipelines.
I am thinking now would be a good time for Credit Suisse to dump their US IB business, then again no one will probably want it.
What are all these Russian men fleeing to Georgia, Turkey, Kazakhstan , and other countries going to do when they run out of cash?
So I google NJ Pensions and the first article that shows up is a fluff piece on Murphy. I would love to see how what the writer received to publish. I swear this guy has more fixers than any politician before and after.
https://www.northjersey.com/story/news/state/2022/09/27/nj-budget-state-finances-phil-murphy/69507118007/
Still nothing up on the state website for 2022.
re: 007 – Incredibly Ukrainian state-run Naftogaz is still taking gas from Russia and passing it through to Europe. That route through Ukraine is still delivering roughly half of the remaining Russian gas flows to the European Union, with another half going through Turkey.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-09-27/european-gas-prices-rise-amid-outages-at-idled-russian-pipelines
Lib: Murph could be our next President, but Eric Adams wants it too.
3b,
He made his pension payment according to the plan Christie put in place. Trust me, it still will go boom.
In other bizarre news a 50 something Michigan man plead guilty last week to killing and cutting off and eating the genitals of some poor young twenty something he met on some dating app. Absolutely horrible. There are some real psychos walking around out there.
Lib re: google NJ Pensions
Yeah last report was they were down to 95 Billion and have not put out a new report since May so it could be down another 20% by now….
Take a look for yourself.
https://www.nj.gov/treasury/doinvest/directorsreports.shtml
Lib: Thanks, I thought it was an additional payment to demonstrate his expertise in governing our state.
Russia blowing up another country’s pipeline would be an act of war. They wouldn’t risk the escalation.
Blowing up this one would be an escalation as well and they were profiting from it. So they had reason not to. Why not simply shut it off if that’s what he wanted.
Yup. Crazy Juice. I bet no new reports get posted until after the midterms.
Russia owns the pipelines folks… A majority of of Nordstream 1 and 100% of Nordstream 2 via Gasprom…There are reports of massive flaring near the Finland border, they are pumping the gas but not shipping it so they have to flare it approx $10 million worth of gas every day.
EU will freeze before it has any substantive effect on the Russian economy, as their oil is being purchased by Asia no questions asked, as well as other nations willing to do ship to ship transfers off the coast of Greece.
https://www.marineinsight.com/shipping-news/russian-oil-continues-to-flow-to-europe-as-vessels-use-ship-to-ship-transfers-off-the-greek-coast-since-the-war-in-ukraine/
3B – “What are all these Russian men fleeing ”
There are social media reports of Russian men drafted last week already showing up on the battlefield and being captured or surrendered with zero training, and little to no supplies is also being reported. How much is propaganda? Impossible to say, just like the body count in Ukraine.
I emailed the director of investing of NJ to find out why the reports are no longer being updated. I expect some kind of excuse, like the web guy died of Covid and has not yet been replaced.
https://www.nj.com/politics/2022/07/nj-public-worker-pension-fund-suffers-through-another-rough-quarter-as-losses-widen.html
Wow.
Juice: I would not be surprised if they were surrendering. Putin created a real shite show for himself.
Lib: Some ugly numbers there!
3b, agree, but you are speaking rainmakers. They didn’t spend time in the office anyway. Hell, my group head would walk the floor, if you were SVP/MD and at your desk two days in a row he would light you up as to why you weren’t on the road.
Verbatim…”eh, eh [bad, phlemgy throat clear]…why the fuck are you here? Your desk is not a revenue generating activity.”
LOL, that sound and phrase is burned into my brain still….
VPs and lower….select senior guys will be consulted for those on the bubble and to finalize the list…again, even the most junior guy is smart enough to realize it’s time to pucker up….however, where ever, whenever….
Left: I agree. I would only add, the puckering up starts now, for those that are left. For the ones that were let go, it’s too late.
Fast Eddie says:
September 26, 2022 at 4:40 pm
Bivalent Boosted Saturday
Is this a Depeche Mode song?
https://www.instagram.com/p/CjBYi1VBvYQ/?utm_source=ig_embed&ig_rid=ef84a40d-078a-4267-9e40-f3d1d4c15531
LOL, agree. Lips all pursed and no ass in sight!
Drew a bunch of lines on market charts this afternoon. Nearly handed a crayon to a young nephew instead.
While believing trend is down, and noting I’m substantially cash, leaned in today on some SPY…really mixed feelings, aside from a 300 downside and 340 not unreasonable target the leaders are just screaming to come off but I have too little exposure…so started legging into an option position expiring next year consisting of two writes and a long that provides me no loss/gain from 300-370, provides same downside as share purchase into the 280s, and gives a 2-3x upside after 400…
Max exposure on this trade will top out at about 8% of portfolio value, or the equivalent of 20% if this were a SPY ETF trade rather than options…
Did throw on a hedge at 355 into next month as I feel main downside exposure is near term (and it makes me feel really stupid if stocks whoosh the wrong way the day after I put a trade on).
And added some short vol (ie, long market or at stability). Feeling OK.
May 31 reported in a July 27th article…… not saying this should be the case, but it would imply 8/31 reported 10/27…. so it wouldn’t be overdue….
Libturd says:
September 27, 2022 at 4:26 pm
I emailed the director of investing of NJ to find out why the reports are no longer being updated. I expect some kind of excuse, like the web guy died of Covid and has not yet been replaced.
Got my bivalent booster and flu shot today. Just walked in.
Saw ZZ Top Saturday night. That was a good. Show. Ann Wilson opened. She did a few of her solo stuff and then did Heart’s biggest hits and a Bowie and led zepplin cover. She was on for around 45 minutes. Jeff beck performed for an hour. And then a little over an hour of ZZ Top and then beck joined ZZ Top for about the last 15-20 minutes.
Given that June 30, 2022 is end of fiscal year, we wait until the books are closed which takes some time due to the delay in receiving performance numbers for private market assets. We also need our custodian to reconcile the numbers. Finally, we look to present fiscal year returns to the State Investment Council prior to releasing the numbers. The State Investment Council meeting is scheduled for October 26, 2022.
https://www.cnbc.com/2022/09/27/july-sp-case-shiller-index-home-prices-cooled-at-the-fastest-rate-in-index-history.html
One data point….. estate sale in my book…. top shelf zip code….. 6 figure ask vetted with multiple realtors…. open house Sunday…. 48 hours later, 2 offers, one for ask, the other with an escalator clause that is effectively ask. Both are contingent on the sale of a current house not yet listed.
Stunningly weak showing…..
Aight. I can dig that.
I saw Ann Wilson & Alice in Chains in AC like 15 years ago. She hit it out of the park.
Murphy covers up a rape. Annihilates nursing homes Leads the world in Covid death rate nearly the entire pandemic. Drives small businesses out of business. And allows schools to be closed, in some cases, an additional year. What other accomplishments does this tool have?
NBC News:
Kyle Young, a 38-year old Trump fan who brought his teenage son along as he assaulted then-D.C. police officer Mike Fanone and another officer at the Capitol on Jan. 6, was just sentenced to more than seven years — 86 months — in prison.
“You were not prosecuted for being a Trump supporter … You are not a political prisoner … You were trying to stop the singular thing that makes America America, the peaceful transfer of power.”
— Judge Amy Berman Jackson
BRT
Wilson can really sing.
At this rate, Putin is going to start claiming genocide against the Russian people.
I looked up some old Ann Wilson live performances. This was Heart in it’s early days. Incredible vocal range and power.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ps7tVvQHLyo
Yes. She has a great range and a powerful voice. I’m amazed at all these rockstars in their 70s who are still touring and putting on good shows.
“Kyle Young, a 38-year old Trump fan who brought his teen.”
I wonder what that old lady got? You know, the one who looked like she thought she was on a Capitol tour?
Lib,
on the pension. I have a friend that does pension management in Colorado. He said he’s spoken to a few NJ state pension guys. He said they are the bottom of the barrel, likely rejects who couldn’t get a job on Wall St.
BRT. Not surprised. I can’t believe some of the pension was vested in Crypto.