Not even that hot…

From Insider:

The most honest man in real estate thinks the housing market isn’t going to crash

Miller is a polymath: he has guided Floridians through understanding how Miami could adjust and profit off of the influx of New York-based buyers in 2020; he’s predicted how a downtown Manhattan office-turned-condo building could cause a surplus of residences for sale that will push down sales prices in the area for years to come; and in the spring, he explained the impact of the ultra-luxury market on real estate in the bougie ski destination of Aspen, Colorado. 

His most relevant hot take right now isn’t even that hot: Miller opposes the idea that the US housing market will crash now the way it did during the Great Recession. Like many of his peers, he argues that there are too few properties on the market compared to those seeking homes for that to happen, and that the market varies too much locally. 

‘When things are bad, I say they’re bad’

His honesty has not always been welcome. 

In the years that preceded the Great Recession, he said, he had to start requiring mortgage-broker clients working for banks to pay his company before the appraisal because so many refused to pay if they did not get the valuation they wanted. 

In order to attract and keep business, other appraisers would assess properties higher than their actual value in New York City, he said. One time, he even saw a luxury condo appraised at $15 million over its actual value. 

“We weren’t morally flexible,” he said. “And that made us a pariah for mortgage brokers.” 

So Miller Samuel had to pivot away from relying so heavily on institutional players, which had made up 75% of its business. He instead started catering to individuals who needed appraisals, like private lawyers or co-op boards, to keep the company from going under, Miller said. 

This entry was posted in Economics, National Real Estate, NYC. Bookmark the permalink.

87 Responses to Not even that hot…

  1. grim says:

    Nice Bio of Jonathan – for all the long timers, the name is probably very familiar.

  2. leftwing says:

    Ha. First

  3. Juice Box says:

    He does not say the market is going up either. I get it he has to get paid for advise but at least he could say which direction the housing market will go short term. Manhattan is already down 5.5% in price, will it be 10% or 20% this year?

  4. Juice Box says:

    More Joys of home ownership……

    My built in electric oven started squealing like a stuck pig. Blower fan motor was going. I ordered a new one online $135 delivered yesterday. So I popped the breaker, and got my tools ready. Oven is heavy around 200 lbs. I did not want to attempt to drop it down to the tile floor as I figured I would crack the tiles even with padding and cardboard etc. So I needed a platform about 18 inches high so I could pull it straight out of the cabinet and push it back in easily. I had nothing really that was that low and strong enough so I ran around the house with a tape measure looking for something about 18 inches high. I considered sawing the legs off an old small table, but I was told no way no how to do that as there was some kind of sentimental value to that old table. I ended up pulling the oven out of the cabinet onto believe it or not my kids old plastic red wagon, it was the right height and the wheels made it easy to maneuver the oven too. I then had to remove about 25 Philips head screws holding the various sheet metal parts together to get to the fan, you would think they would make it easy to pull the fan well nope… I then had to adjust the new blower and test it. I made sure to start up the oven to see if everything worked before I put the oven back into the cabinet. All good so I slid the oven back in, and it now working like a charm new fan is made in Italy and it is very quiet, not some cheap Chinese junk for sure.

    However one new issue….My wife cleaned the door when I had it off.. she sprayed some kind of degreaser on it and the spray went inside the air vent for the door and now the degreaser is all inside the door and cannot get it out. It has now dried and made the door glass opaque with streaks of degreaser.

    Now I have to take the whole damm door apart to clean the degreaser off the inside glass. At least there is a nice youtube video online on how to take it apart…

    Lesson learned is keep wife out of kitchen…

  5. SmallGovConservative says:

    Outstanding job by the small gov conservatives, who used their leverage to get some important procedural changes to the way the House conducts business. No doubt the next Dem leadership will undo all of them, but for now, taxpayers and citizens across the board should thank them. Among the items…

    – A “Church” style committee will be convened to look into the weaponization of the FBI and other government organizations
    – Bills presented to Congress will be single subject, not omnibus with all the attendant earmarks, and there will be a 72-hour minimum period to read them.
    – Term limits will be put up for a vote.
    – Budget bills would stop the endless increases in the debt ceiling and hold the Senate accountable for the same.
    – The Texas Border Plan will be put before Congress.

  6. leftwing says:

    I guess all the drama queens are now satisfied that the Party they don’t support elected a leader….and what do you know, it was accomplished without ‘the destruction of our sacred democracy’ and without ‘MAGA burning it all down’….

    You guys need some better news feeds.

  7. joyce says:

    I agree with this.

    leftwing says:
    January 7, 2023 at 12:12 pm

    And I agree with most of this. I’m not sure what a ‘church’ style committee is, but that’s not really germane. “Budget bills would stop the endless increases in the debt ceiling and hold the Senate accountable for the same.” Zero. Zero chance of this happening, and I really hope it does. There will be excuses made, or it will be ignored outright. At the very best, they will raise the debt ceiling by X allowing to borrow every penny immediately while agreeing to cut spending by X over the next 10 years… which won’t happen because it will be undone directly by future legislation, indirectly by baseline budgeting gimmicks or other reasons. After 2+ years, look back at the year over year debt… it will only go up. I’d venture a guess that the rate of increases won’t even drop.

    SmallGovConservative says:
    January 7, 2023 at 11:20 am

  8. Bystander says:

    Spoiler alert- these deals were about posturing and basically a farce that won’t impact a thing. When money needs to paid, it will be paid. The Rs will shut down govt in a charade over debt ceiling. McCarthy will resign at some point and Congress will accomplish nothing. Hooray.

  9. Libturd says:

    “taxpayers and citizens across the board should thank them”

    When Republicans actually hold the line on spending instead of just saying they hold the line on spending, I’ll vote for them every time. Until then, it’s all hot air as always.

    I look forward to the term-limit vote. It won’t happen either.

  10. joyce says:

    When individual States tried to say their State term limit laws applied to their Federal Representatives and Senators, the USSC said that they don’t and the only restrictions regarding Federal term limits are what’s in the Constitution. I assume the USSC would say the same for any Federal legislation meaning an Amendment is required.

  11. Ex says:

    California, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, and Oregon all had an average life expectancy of 79 in 2020, according to NiceRx.

    Here are the 10 states with the longest life expectancy:

    1. Hawaii-80.7

    2. Washington-79.2

    3. Minnesota-79.1

    4. California (tie)-79

    5. Massachusetts (tie)-79

    6. New Hampshire (tie)-79

    7. Oregon (tie)-78.8

    8. Vermont (tie)-78.8

    9. Utah-78.6

    10. Connecticut-78.4

  12. Crushednjmillenial says:

    The anger over the GFC (private players at the top were never prosecuted, and the government players involved did what they did) and the Iraq War led to the populism of MAGA.

    What populism arises from the Covid debacle?

    The D’s know how to target prosecution for political purposes (see Trump co criminal and civil filings by NY AG). The people wanted this against the top two or three layers of all the big Wall Strert institutions after the GFC. Heck, follow them around and hall then for jaywalking as littering if need be. . Frankly, they deserved to be hung literally in the public square if anyone ever did.

    GFC, Iraq Wars and Covid blew trillions into our federal debt. Will it break out system and monetize our debt? Can the US fed debt rise to $40T? $100T? $1Q?

    Is Biden the person to restore the average citizen’s trust in institutions? Is DeSantis?

  13. Ex says:

    GFC – Gefilte Fish Coalition

  14. Libturd says:

    There is no more anger anymore. Anything goes. The city is filled with people wilding. Why the fuck not? The police are essential doing the same. Americans have more guns than TVs now. Our politicians continue to get away with murder and the share of the pie for everyone under the top 1/2 of the 1% keeps getting smaller and smaller. Good times in the US of A.

    Just wait till the recession.

  15. Phoenix says:

    I cannot predict the stock market any better than Cathe Wood.

    But I have been predicting this, and telling you that you should buy your popcorn, sit back and enjoy the show. Until it comes for you, your family, your loved one.
    Can’t take the credit, (hat tip to George Carlin) who wrote a better book than the guy in the sky. YW Juice for the other hat tip.
    What I have seen in the last 24 hrs- Gonna take my brain a week to digest.

    Command and control-respect, morals, work ethic. Gone, just gone. America has capitalized it into non-existence- and you can’t prosecute it back in like you think you can. You can’t make people want to live or care by threatening them. They need a positive reason, not for you to try to beat them into compliance.

    America would have been better letting sex rule the airwaves vs violence. Just think about how much more fun we would all be having.

    “There is no more anger anymore. Anything goes. The city is filled with people wilding. Why the fuck not? The police are essential doing the same. Americans have more guns than TVs now. Our politicians continue to get away with murder and the share of the pie for everyone under the top 1/2 of the 1% keeps getting smaller and smaller. Good times in the US of A.

    Just wait till the recession.”

  16. chicagofinance says:

    Just got my natural gas bill. Wow. At the end of the day, so what? But that is for me. Broadly, this expense will be a food versus heat decision for some. I know the rate is fixed by the NJPUC, and was measured some months ago. I also know that the current market has reversed. That said, with my most objective declarative voice possible, “fuck you Joe Biden.”

  17. Phoenix says:

    ‘Broadly, this expense will be a food versus heat decision for some.’

    Or maybe they will just cut the cat out of your car-or sell your kid some dope. Or who knows what else….

  18. Phoenix says:

    “Just got my natural gas bill. Wow.”

    Supply and demand.

    Europe demands it, jacking up the price. America, being capitalists, compress it and sell it to higher bidder overseas. Supply decreases, Americans pay more. Corporations get richer.

    The system is working just as intended. None of this is an accident.

  19. Juice Box says:

    re ‘church’ style committee

    What are they going to do? I will tell you Patriot Act II….

    As of December 2020, the Patriot Act remains expired…

  20. Fast Eddie says:

    Just got my natural gas bill. Wow.

    I got mine yesterday, thought it was a misprint. Same reaction. If Trump was president right now, your bill would be 20% less.

  21. Fast Eddie says:

    And congratulations to the Freedom Caucus for a big win on January 6th, perhaps fitting on the anniversary of the Ashli Babbitt murder. This is also a victory to the Freedom Fighters and proves that a representative republic is still supported by the will of the people.

  22. Phoenix says:

    One of our new staff I met a short while back has the unfortunate name of Brandon.

    And we now have a Kyle, I’m sure you have heard about his mom.

  23. The Great Pumpkin says:

    I just want to throw this out there for all the cathie haters. They all claim she was the product of low rates, and the following is my response.

    No doubt, but remember she beat out everyone in that environment. She was the best stock picker of that era hands down. Tesla and bitcoin calls were simply amazing. I laughed at her at the time, wish I listened. And that’s the god honest truth. I wish I didn’t mock tesla or bitcoin…could have changed my life forever. Not making the same mistake this time…

  24. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Demographics are all that matter in a capitalist world. Watch the video. Click the link. Big trouble. Do not buy real estate in low density locations. Do not do it, or it could destroy you long-term leaving you with worthless dirt.

    “This guy pretty much nails it.

    Immigration needs to be expanded.

    These long term trends aren’t going to change unless the cost of living dramatically drops and our younger generations have more confidence they can financially afford to raise a family.”

  25. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Watch that video till the end. This guy gets it. “If i told you that your town would lose half of its population while getting older.”

    It’s coming people. Do not run from the NYC metro area. It will be a grave mistake. Understand what’s going to happen here if population growth continues to decline. Those small towns are going to be totally abandoned and whoever is left, will move to major population centers like nyc metro. So this region will expand, while others are dead.

    Not rocket science. And jimbo, how do you think I made my real estate and wage inflation calls so far out? That’s right, didn’t get lucky, it was demographics. For some reason it is ignored in investing. Keep worrying about company fundamentals instead of demographic fundamentals.

  26. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Lmao… same chit anti bitcoin heads spew.

    “Gold is just a speculative asset that has gone up for 20 years because interest rates went down.

    Now interest rates will rise for 20 years and gold will go down.

    It’s not rocket science, it’s just economics.”

  27. Grim says:

    Whew 287 for gas

  28. Phoenix says:

    “Whew 287 for gas”

    Millionaires can afford their donations to the Ukraine.

    Now the truly poor….

  29. The Great Pumpkin says:

    In reference to Buffett. Tell me how he is different than Cathie.

    “He’s actually roughly matched S&P 500 over last 20 years. 100% of his outperformance prior statistically attributable to embedded insurance leverage. I think he basically made 1 real bet that produced his success: being levered long for a 50 year secular bull market.”

  30. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Juice said they are different. No, both took the same high risk to get rich.

  31. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Both rode bull markets.

  32. Hold my beer says:

    Teacher overdose in a brigadoon classroom

    I’d probably be on drugs too if I spent by day surround by tweens and teens from brigadoon.

  33. leftwing says:

    The NYT comes around, eventually…..

    Maybe they’ll even be honest after they are done shrieking that the world is ending and inform their (mis)informed readers that the one Member vacate provision existed up until Pelosi eliminated it in 2019 to consolidate her power….

    “leftwing says: January 6, 2023 at 1:28 pm.
    Study history…there’s a long history of grassroots on the Right, most notable recent manifestation was the ‘Contract with America’ in 1994 and the Tea Party movement that bubbled up from a CNBC host in 2009….the bubbling of the grassroots Right sprang up in 2016 when heavyweights like Bush, etc were unceremoniously tossed aside in the Presidential primary…this shit isn’t going away”

  34. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Touching on buffett some more.

    How about his bet that passive index fund investing would beat out stock pickers in 2009. Why did he win? Unbelievable period of QE at the end of the greatest population growth run in our nation’s history. He rode the liquidity.

    At the end of the day, he rode a long-term bull market run off of unbelievable population growth. He is nothing but a product of his environment. He rode a long-term bull, and cathie rode a short-term bull. No f’king difference. Stop putting one above the other.

  35. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Entire boomer generation and generation before them were the luckiest generations in American history. All they did was ride the largest population growth wave in human history. Why do you think their house purchases made them millionaires? Why do you think they could perform no thinking passive investing for their entire lives and be successful?

    Demographics matter people.

  36. Phoenix says:

    So it was the cop that was the hero? Haha.

    “Police said that Thompson was first observed in distress by students and was actively being treated by a school nurse when officers arrived.

    A responding police officer immediately recognized signs that indicated the teacher was overdosing on drugs and injected him with naloxone hydrochloride, or Narcan, that he carries on his person, cops said.”

    70 year old grannies are now shooting the H I am told by colleagues. Guess it makes sense, probably need it more at 70 with all of the aching bones as humans were probably never designed by God to make it past 40.

  37. Phoenix says:

    School nurse needs a written order to give a Midol to a teenager.

    Cop has Qualified Immunity, could inject anyone with anything and never have a legal care in the world.

  38. Phoenix says:

    Word has it that some of the honeybees are protesting, going on strike, and taking a stand as this is America and they have the right to not be vaccinated without their consent.
    Some are planning a raid on the Capitol as well.

    U.S.D.A. Approves First Vaccine for Honeybees
    Dalan Animal Health’s vaccine for American foulbrood, an aggressive bacterial disease, is the first for any insect in the United States.

  39. Ex says:

    So much for the ol’ flask in a desk! Greeez

  40. Chicago says:

    Left: You pairwise sh!tbag.
    Is this the high water mark for the year?

    They are 11, right behind BU and Harvard, who are now on tap.
    Brutal stretch over the next three weekends.

    Biggest issue is that they are mediocre on the road, and they have to play two in Allston.

  41. The Great Pumpkin says:

    “The highest yield on the US Treasury curve is the six month T-Bill, at 4.8%.

    There is no way the Fed is going to 5%.

    The Fed is not in control.

    The Bond Market is in control.”

  42. 1987 condo says:

    I heard the honey bees are considering “swarming” the capitol.

  43. leftwing says:

    ChiRapeBaby, I think it is… they control their own destiny, all you can ask.

    Man, a drunk bunch of late 30 something chicks in way too much too tight leather ripping it up at my local guy with a guitar place.. birthday apparently… good to be young, lol

  44. leftwing says:

    Great Harvard Princeton game the other night

  45. Bystander says:

    Treasurer at Coinbase resigns. Nice looking gal but the hubris is off the charts. A 6 paragraph goodbye “I fell in love with the people” and “even in the hardest or best days at Coinbase”. “a thanks to all those who supported me since I took on this new challenge” F-in reality check, you were there 18 months and now running for the hills before it collapses. I wish someone would state it on LI comments. The pomposity is strong with crypto cult.

  46. Bystander says:

    Not even 18 months, perhaps 15 months. Get a grip on your impact and self importanace.

  47. Chicago says:


  48. libturd says:


  49. leftwing says:

    Interesting end of week boys…bunch of data on Thurs including CPI and this earnings season kicks off in earnest on Friday. Let’s go baby!

  50. Libturd says:

    This earnings season is going to be the most critical one, IMO in a very long time. From my perch, I’m not sure how the market can possibly go up from here. If earnings are good, then it will encourage the FED to continue increasing the FFR which should drive the market lower. If the earnings are bad, then it will drive stock prices lower due to the impact EPS has on stock price, especially with the pending layoffs. I also read somewhere that if wage growth begins to outpace inflation, it will cause inflation.

    So many headwinds still. Hope all that stimulus was worth it.

  51. leftwing says:

    Agree on the import Lib, this earnings season and next…while not nearly as bearish as you I still think a downdraft can be in the cards…I’m keeping my signposts of 3500, 3200, and 2800 but adjusting a bit in that I may be a more aggressive buyer at higher and mid-points than I would have been previously…of course it matters how we get there…

    What I’m noodling around today…there is greater number than usual and wide cross-section of banks reporting, and it is on a Friday, and it is the day after CPI…I see the potential for a rip your face off rally if CPI is at all within expectations as I don’t see banks tanking this quarter…with a neutral to positive CPI print and decent bank earnings – at the end of the first full week of trading in a new year with the market already trending upward – you could see this market run at the end of the week….

    If it happens I don’t necessarily think it will hold, but that is the random electrical impulse from the base of the brain stem this morning, fwiw….

  52. Very Stable Genius says:

    “ A member of George Santos’ political team had a plan to raise money for the congressman’s campaign: impersonate Republican House Speaker Kevin McCarthy’s chief of staff.

    Wealthy donors received calls and emails from a man who said he was Dan Meyer, McCarthy’s chief of staff, during the 2020 and 2022 election cycles, according to people familiar with the matter. He was actually named Sam Miele, and worked for Santos raising money for his campaign, according to one GOP donor who contributed to Santos’ campaign. This financier and some others in this story declined to be named in order to speak freely about private discussions.”

  53. BRT says:

    CERS down 21% ouch. No way to exit. That’s the danger of owning 10% of all these small cap sh1tcos.

    Today’s Cathie Wood blowup is $CERS. Ark Invest owned 8.3% of the company at the end of December. $ARKK itself owns over 10.9 million shares, nearly 10 times average volume (today obviously volume a bit more)

  54. crushednjmillenial says:

    Cathy still has $10B AUM. Wow, that number is still pretty high.

    Does Cathy make it to the next bull market or how does it end for ARKK funds?

  55. crushednjmillenial says:

    With an average expense ratio of 0.72%, ARKK’s office is still pulling in at least $72M per year, at today’s AUM.

    Not sure if the ARKK company has any additional source of revenue. Did they ever sell Queen Cathy t-shirts and other merchandise back in 2021?

  56. leftwing says:

    LOL BRT, just amazing…don’t have words to express that a company down $0.90 on the day is off 24%….it’s a fucking penny stock, basically always has been, and she owns much of it…

    I truly have not seen any institutional investor since I started on Wall Street nearly 40 years ago who is as bad a stock picker, portfolio manager, and risk manager as she is…well at least any that isn’t incarcerated or dead.

    Don’t have any real time to spend on a shitco but did pop the latest Q…$80m or so cash, cash flow negative, and $55m in principal coming due in the next twelve months…..ruh-roh……we’re not in a 2019 financing environment anymore. Think the brilliant Cathie even knows what a going concern opinion is? LOL

  57. No One says:

    At least Ark’s overhead should be pretty low. I wonder what cut of the revenue Cathie gets. As I’ve said before, only one of Ark’s analysts even completed the CFA program. They are pretty inexperienced and were bull market babies. Cathie is the only one that ever really experienced a growth stock downturn before, but she’s no use. Having a research committee led by a “futurist” is bad news because such people tell stories but they don’t see the future that well – probably just hype up the team. The one analyst with the CFA is supposed to be head of their valuation process, but the one valuation sample from her that I saw on the website was really bad – tried to make it look like they are super-mathematically advanced but all she really did was slip in some very dubious assumptions betraying overconfidence and overoptimistic premises. Using valuation trickery to bolster promotional storytelling is not the path to the truth.
    Some of those analysts are smart, but they have little experience and are steeped in hype, so I think they are more storytellers and promoters, not really objective analysts. I don’t think they even understand what they don’t know about investing – they are mostly science people, but I know from decades of experience that such people may know technical details but often don’t know how to make investment decisions or weigh what’s important for long term profit/loss.

  58. BRT says:

    science people can be equally as bad on the tech front. I remember having two professors talk about this new surface technique called “dip pen nano-lithography”. I mean, way cool and clearly, genius development. The guy who did was Chad Mirkin, and he gave a talk at our symposium. My boss, who was the eternal optimist told me, “this has multibillions of dollars of potential written all over it”. Another guy, who was on my PhD committee, the realist, told me, in a separate conversation “it’s cool, but probably will never make money”.

  59. chicagofinance says:

    Jobs report and wage inflation are going to drive the Fed. They have said as much.

    Libturd says:
    January 9, 2023 at 9:38 am
    If earnings are good, then it will encourage the FED to continue increasing the FFR which should drive the market lower. If the earnings are bad, then it will drive stock prices lower due to the impact EPS has on stock price, especially with the pending layoffs. I also read somewhere that if wage growth begins to outpace inflation, it will cause inflation.

    So many headwinds still. Hope all that stimulus was worth it.

  60. Libturd says:

    Thanks Chi.
    Certainly jobs reports are always in play. Wage inflation? Haven’t had to pay attention to that in a while.

  61. 3b says:

    Fed not liking these stock market rallies, although todays 300
    Point gain is gone.

  62. chicagofinance says:

    I’m really trying to put my best foot forward. Everything lines up for a simple “don’t fight the Fed” that winds through the nosie of everything. The BIG caveat? Everyone is thinking exactly the same way. If that is true, then what developments extract maximun pain? The answer UP….. makes me drink…. no reason it should happen, but that is exactly why it could…..

    leftwing says:
    January 9, 2023 at 10:43 am
    – at the end of the first full week of trading in a new year with the market already trending upward – you could see this market run at the end of the week….

  63. Juice Box says:

    Clown World this week is being led by our very own Seantor Booker.

    Gas stoves are wacist…

    “A federal agency may look to ban gas stoves over concern about the release of pollutants that can cause health and respiratory problems, according to a new report.

    The U.S. Consumer Product Safety Commission is set to open public comment on the dangers of gas stoves sometime this winter. The commission could set standards on emissions from the gas stoves, or even look to ban the manufacture or import of the appliances, commissioner Richard Trumka Jr. told Bloomberg News.

    “This is a hidden hazard,” Trumka told the outlet. “Any option is on the table. Products that can’t be made safe can be banned.”

    The stoves, which are used in about 40 percent of homes in the U.S., emit pollutants including nitrogen dioxide, carbon monoxide and fine particulate matter at levels deemed unsafe by the EPA and World Health Organization. The emissions have been linked to illness, cardiovascular problems, cancer, and other health conditions. More than 12 percent of current childhood asthma cases are linked to gas stove use, according to peer-reviewed research published in the International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health last month.

    Senator Cory Booker (D., N.J.) and Representative Don Beyer (D., Va.) wrote a letter to the agency last month urging the commission to address the issue and calling the harmful emissions a “cumulative burden” on black, Latino and low-income households.

    However, the Association of Home Appliance Manufacturers argues that cooking produces harmful emissions regardless of the kind of stove used.

    “Ventilation is really where this discussion should be, rather than banning one particular type of technology,” Jill Notini, a vice president at the association, told Bloomberg. “Banning one type of a cooking appliance is not going to address the concerns about overall indoor air quality. We may need some behavior change, we may need [people] to turn on their hoods when cooking.”

  64. Libturd says:

    We all know Pump’s thinks we are trying to get a rise out of him by continuing to pile on Cathie. But he is such a schmuck that he doesn’t realize how dangerous of an investor she is.

    Years prior to the collapse of her funds, many of us pointed out how her funds had no exit strategy to deal with a bear market. Especially considering that in many of her funds, she owned nearly every name in the sector and such a large percentage of the shares in those names. There would be no way to sell those shares without their price pulling back significantly. This is basic investing 101. The truth is, nearly anyone could have pulled off the same feat she did. Most were smart enough not too. Why? Because she is now ranked at the bottom of the pack. Who wants that on their resume?

  65. Juice Box says:

    Ban all fireplaces and stoves too gas,wood and pellet.

    and Gasp CO2… well as CO…

  66. Libturd says:

    It trends upward because that’s the psychology of the market. This tend to take place ahead of earnings. I would expect these animal spirits to work their voodoo in greater number as the bear market lingers longer. Without earnings or data to support the move, I stay away from them. Sure, these moves could also represent the predecessor of the market return to normalcy as insiders always know what we don’t. But without that data, I sleep well at night knowing I only trade on fundamentals which tend to be organized and predictable. Jumping into the fray since the market is up big over two days is not good enough for me.

  67. Libturd says:


    “More than 12 percent of current childhood asthma cases are linked to gas stove use, according to peer-reviewed research published in the International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health last month.”

    And the other 88% are ?

  68. Fast Eddie says:

    And the other 88% are ?

    Voting Republican.

    I just gave CNN and MSNBC talking points for about a month.

  69. leftwing says:

    NoOne, she actually advertised for her analyst roles that she wanted ‘storytellers’ and people ‘as comfortable on Instagram as on a spreadsheet’. That job posting was circulating around my group about a year ago as an lol on her shop….

    You say CW is the only one in her shop who has experienced a growth stock downturn, I would differ…for nearly her entire career, even when she managed money, she was an economist or global strategist. Admirable, maybe, but hardly a stock picker. ‘Strategists’ are generally like academics, they are (may be) good at big picture thematics but have little practical experience in specific markets….example, there are incredibly smart professors at Wharton, Booth, and HBS who can rip apart in theory how capital markets work, and how they should work…make them Head of an ECM desk and by their own admission they’d blow up the group…there is a very large difference between theory/strategy and execution. She is no different, having experience in the former but not the latter. Every single institutional investor knew that which is why no one was willing to stake her when she wanted to spin out of AB…except literally one…a former money manager now charged with a $20B fraud in his own funds who only funded her over their shared religious convictions…

    CW is not smart enough to know what she doesn’t know – which is why her risk management of all things is so horrific – and her retail investor base is even less knowledgeable. As long as that disparity exists – and her ‘analysts’ post ten pages of Excel garbage that the uninitiated think is sophisticated because of volume and ‘transparency’ – she will have some funds under management…but ultimately garbage is garbage, whether hidden in a dumpster or blowing around the side of a highway….

  70. Libturd says:

    60% of our electricity in the US is generated through the burning of fossil fuels. We also burn more and more of our trash. How much childhood asthma is caused by this?

  71. Juice Box says:

    re: UP…..

    No reason for any reversal, coordinated worldwide central banks rate increases starting last year turned $18 trillion of negative global debt around. The Bloomberg index is now zero as of this week. That was a 12 year run….

    For stocks it’s all there earnings growth estimates were revised lower and prices followed the ever increasing rates as the cost of capital got more expensive, margins shrank, and companies rosy hiring plans turned to layoffs.

    Don’t fight the Fed. Their minutes say they are going to continue hikes at least the first few meetings that get us to the first week of May. There is no reason yet not to be defensive, the question is just by how much.

  72. leftwing says:

    chi, yeah, if I do anything around week end it’s a trade not longer term…also will wait until Wed night or Th morning, been doing this too long to take two days of market risk ahead of the setup I’m looking for…did close today my TSLA from Friday, 50%+ of maxprofit, not going to look that gift horse in the mouth especially with the vol in that name…still riding out MSFT and some XPO (did close some today with the runup) but otherwise cleaned out most other random put writes I had hanging around like TRIP, not a lot of money in any individual one but better than pocket change and in the aggregate in hindsight these weekly/monthly situations generated a noticeable amount of my gains last year, even (especially?) risk adjusted…right now I’m about as clean as I’ve been regarding put writes so actually wouldn’t mind a decent downdraft….am at a new ATH on the back of the gains above and my CPB short but not popping any bottles, fully expecting my portfolio value to come back in as I’m judicious with my hedge so any FANG+M giveback will likely take me back beneath….pretty much on hold and looking at names/setups until Wed afternoon unless we get some interesting action beforehand…

  73. Juice Box says:

    Lib – The combustion for all that electricity happens at a power plants far far away where you won’t see or smell it. We are going to need a massive amount of new power plants for electric stoves at dinner time alone never mid electric car charging.

    Case in point England. When the Brits all turn on their 230 volt 1,500 watt tea kettles for TV tea time at night the massive power surge means their National Grid needs to import that current draw from France as only they have the spare nuclear capacity to power those boiling electric kettles. Imagine 30 million electric stoves on the US east coast all powering up to cook dinner, how many new power plants is that?

  74. leftwing says:

    Electric stoves SUCK. For real. No serious cook should use one.

    Think I’ll take a warehouse somewhere in the middle of nowhere and stock it up with pre-overly electronic inundated cars; gas stoves; gas mowers and blowers; real old top loading agitating washers; etc.

    Bust them out when all this shit isn’t being sold anymore and make some cha-ching as GenZ’ers realize how much their toy shit sucks….

  75. Fast Eddie says:

    You thought your gas bill was high? Wait until you see how much it costs to heat your house with electric. What’s that? Power outage for days? Oh, you’ll fire up the portable generator? Do you plan to p1ss in the gas tank?

  76. Chicago says:

    Left: NCAA out with Red at 15. Good till Friday.

  77. Ex says:

    3:02 living in the shadow of route 280.

  78. BRT says:

    BREAKING: CBS News reports that the U.S. Department of Justice is investigating classified documents from Joe Biden’s vice presidency that were found at Biden think tank

    lol, Biden think tank?

  79. Juice Box says:

    Lol So Biden broke the same law as Trump? November 2 (before election) is when Biden’s attorneys notified the National Archives, but someone was told to keep quiet. They raided (rightfully so) Trump what about 8 weeks earlier in September…

    Might be time for the FBI to no knock raid houses is Washington DC, Hawaii, and Martha’s Vineyard and make sure Barry has no keepsakes classified or not. While they are at it Bush is living in a Dallas suburb, they should go down there and make sure he does not have Saddam Hussein’s gold revolver in a glass case, it’s apparently still missing.

  80. BRT says:

    Electric stoves suck. I have one because my wife has an irrational fear of fire. What an inferior method of heating.

  81. Chicago says:


    BRT says:
    January 9, 2023 at 6:59 pm
    BREAKING: CBS News reports that the U.S. Department of Justice is investigating classified documents from Joe Biden’s vice presidency that were found at Biden think tank

    lol, Biden think tank?

  82. Libturd says:

    “Rental Housing Is Suddenly Headed Toward a Hard Landing”

    “While investors were focused on fears of a collapse in the homebuying industry, a crash in the apartment market has been taking shape.”

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