From the NY Post:
US home prices just did something they haven’t done since 2012
US home prices in February posted their first year-over-year decline in more than a decade as surging mortgage rates put the squeeze on the market.
The average US home sold for $350,246 for the four weeks ending on Feb. 26, according to an analysis by real estate firm Redfin this week. The sale price plunged by 0.6% compared to the same month one year ago — the first annual decline since February 2012.
“Prices falling from a year ago is a milestone because it hasn’t happened since the housing market was recovering from the 2008 subprime mortgage crisis,” Redfin deputy chief economist Taylor Marr said in a statement.
“Home prices skyrocketed so much over the last few years that they were likely to come down once rates rose from historic lows,” Marr added.
…
The largest price declines were in “pandemic homebuying hotspots,” the firm said.
Austin, Texas, posted the largest year-over-year decline of 11%.
First
The sale price plunged by 0.6% compared to the same month one year ago…
Plunged. Right. How much did it “plunge” in North Jersey? A 40% rise in two years and the 30 yr. rate doubled; you’d have to be smoking lead paint chips to pull the trigger on a purchase. Target a house and make an offer 20% less than the list price. If chubby Mary is insulted and blows a heart valve, counter offer with thoughts and prayers.
$80,000 down (because everyone is 20% ready) and it’s yours for $2,800 PITI per month. Hazmat suits not included:
https://www.trulia.com/p/nj/east-rutherford/17-boiling-springs-ave-east-rutherford-nj-07073–2006148447
For SmallGov,
https://goppredators.wordpress.com/
This is not to say that Democrats are innocent. My point is that SmallGov is a troll. Plenty of bad behavior for everyone.
Sold for 30oK in 2016, asking 475K today. It’s a house pod. Tubby Sue says it’s worth it.
It has a kitchen in the basement, don’t know what tax ramifications are w. two kitchens. And I’ll say it again, people do not know how to decorate or show a house. The pictures are irritating to the eyes:
https://www.trulia.com/p/nj/passaic/40-terhune-ave-passaic-nj-07055–2006077155
And, there’s no dining room in the Passaic house above. The dining room is in the basement. Terrible all around. I’ll give you 300K for it.
Fast: The house in East Rutherford has not been touched since the Johnson presidency. But under 400k in Bergen Co?? Just saying, a rare , rare opportunity to be special.
LOL, what about the exterior of that house in E Rutherford next door?
I never understand why people knowingly do that to a home? It can’t be desired it’s so bad, but likewise it’s so horrible how can it be accidental? Is it just a big goof on the citizenry? Like ‘how bad can we make this and still get people to do it’?
I’m recalling some movie of the sort, bunch of wealthy people at dinner parties bringing in lower class rubes and seeing how far they can push, kind of a dark comedy IIRC…anyone know which movie I’m thinking of?
I will one day make a compendium of the decades plus ‘best posts’ here and sell it as a book…Lib was up there years ago with Captain Cheapo but Eddie’s recent home posts with commentary is close to deserving its own chapter….
LMK on the movie if anyone knows what I’m talking about, may revisit it tonight, or maybe I’m just having a senior moment…
These people are insane! Helicopter money, baby! This won’t distort housing prices…and then they will cry about affordable housing and prices going up. These people need to be put down…this is dangerous.
“California is weighing on $360,000 in reparations to eligible black residents, per Bloomberg.
One of the models under consideration suggests the state would owe a total of almost $640 billion to 1.8 million Black Californians with an ancestor enslaved in the US, per Bloomberg.”
In Morris County some houses have multiple offers and have gone to bidding wars. The fix to all this will be 9-11% mortgage rates. Not sure if J. Powell has the “GUTS” to do that, but to stop the market it is a must do. We have been much higher than that but you young guys were not yet born, must happen to slow down the runaway train.
Of course people will be complaining , but a recession will build character. Otherwise Joe will bankrupt SS with 20% increases in 4 years, which he may do any way.
Truth.
“Lots of anti-w2 talk the last couple years.
Here’s the thing:
The person who owns the company often thinks about how much more freedom you have than they do.”
Dinner for Schmucks….https://www.imdb.com/title/tt0427152/
May re-watch.
Housing for Schmucks, lol. Need to go to some open houses with a discrete camera and let Eddie do the voice over.
Of course people will be complaining , but a recession will build character.
And bankrupt the young and the poor. Most of which had no hand in this mess at all.
Plus that interest rate will help boomer, who caused this mess to begin with.
Up, up, and away?
https://ironsidesmacro.substack.com/p/the-bond-bull-is-dead
I’m a beta.
Stock up on Potassium Iodine.
https://twitter.com/skadefron/status/1632134802257084416
Wayne is getting better.
Looks like someone was stabbed in the food court.
It’s only a flesh wound.
The Fed now has no choice but to push the US into a ‘hard landing’ recession to pull inflation down, strategist says
https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/recession-warning-us-economy-hard-landing-fed-inflation-interest-rates-2023-3
“Plunged 0.6%…”
So the house went from $352,360 to $350,246. Oh the huge manatee…
“Tesla Energy: MegaPacks are a plug & play solution to stabilize the electrical grid & prevent outages. Smart batteries w/OTA, inverters, & thermal control. MegaPacks easily integrate with Tesla Software like AutoBidder, PowerHub, & MicroGrid Controller.”
“Tesla MegaPack 1) Electrical grids run on a stable frequency. In an emergency, MegaPacks charge, or discharge, the grid in .1 sec., using advanced software, & provide stability. Faster than the heavy machines in backup coal or gas plant could. Thread.
2) MegaPacks allow Transmission lines to carry close to 100% capacity. Without a battery, Power lines carry less electricity than they can, to be able to cover any fault. With a MegaPack to stabilize grid, utilities can transmit more electricity on existing lines & save money.
Traditional goal/gas plants heavy rotating machines provide inertia (slows down frequency changes & allows time to fix a grid). Lose this effect with new power sources like solar/wind. MegaPacks provide a digital virtual inertia to stabilize the grid.
Tesla is the only vertically integrated energy storage provider. The MegaPack solution includes seamless integration of hardware (battery), firmware, and software, providing industry-leading performance, reliability and over-the-air updates.”
As a gay man I wonder how my party might react to my proclivities.
Ex: you said you were quitting these threads.
Left: bad matchup. Golden Knights? Couldn’t have been worse.
Last
chi, yeah, but Red put themselves in the ‘must win’ category with that horrific home weekend of back-to-back weak losses…
today we actually should be finding a Mich State grad and kissing them full on the lips…absent their upset of taking two against Notre Dame this weekend Red would be no better than 15th, the last possible slot available…
nothing’s firm as the PCWs all depend on what opponents do (and opponent’s opponents lol) but basically we need to make it to the conference finals…not necessarily win, but we do need two high quality wins…starts Friday at Lynah. It’s the season, boys. Play that way.
Oh, and this weekend we are most certainly no longer Mich State fans…they beat MN (ranked 1) and even if we win they may overtake us…getting to the short stokes baby!
Inversion 93 bps
Inversion 93 bps
Explain the significance, please.
Nobody pushes baby in a corner….
Jim says:
March 6, 2023 at 9:21 am
Nobody pushes baby in a corner….
So someone is using my handle, pretty sure it is Ex. But maybe Grim can check his E-mail.
Sold for 270K in 2019, asking 398K. That’s a 47% rise in a little over 3 years. This is a pattern I’m seeing all over. You can’t even say the location is desirable.
https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/4-Catherine-St-Bloomingdale-NJ-07403/39713670_zpid/
Sold for 320K in 2017, demanding 500K and it’s shitty. Look at the yard and exterior wall over the garage. G0d only knows what else is p1ss poor about this house:
https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/74-Reservoir-Ave-Butler-NJ-07405/39397294_zpid/
Bought DNA today at 1.39. Brought my avg down to 2.37 now. 11,117 shares.
3b, you around? How many days are we?
Asking for a personal exemption – to be human, not for my benefit – on our streak. LMK, think you had a mulligan early on, I didn’t take one, and I certainly don’t want to break it now…
“BACK ON THE MARKET! Buyer did not perform.”
Wtf does that mean? Lol! Was there a couch interview involved as a sales stipulation? Lol.
https://www.trulia.com/p/nj/pompton-lakes/1058-ringwood-ave-pompton-lakes-nj-07442–2006499483
House around the block just sold for Sold: $999,999. Not nearly as nice as mine. I guess my tax bill is going to go up again next near.
Using someone else’s handle to post detracts from the overall value and experience of this blog. I believe Grim had a one strike and you’re out policy.
Just to be clear they raised my assessment $220,000 in one year and I will get another card now in nine months saying it’s a million.. My neighbor down the street also is assessed at a million and is livid. Taxes way up on him too.
I may sell before it all crashes, it’s the American way…
Juice
Would you rent or head to Florida or Texas?
If there’s one thing that will motivate Americans to move, it’s money. Where can you get more of it, where can you save it, where is it expensive to live and where is it cheap?
It’s an American tradition that stretches back to the 19th century, when pioneers headed west in search of gold, silver and a brighter future.
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But over the pandemic, as remote work took off, many people packed up and fled densely-populated expensive states for cheaper living arrangements that helped to stretch their dollars.
Three years after the onset of the pandemic, cheaper, lower-density areas remain attractive to Americans looking to make a change, as a new study shows. Every year, United Van Lines, a moving and relocation company, tracks its moves and shares the results of the top states Americans are fleeing — and where they’re headed. Here are the top five states people left behind in 2022.
1. New Jersey
For the fifth consecutive year, New Jersey was the No. 1 state Americans chose to leave in 2022. The top reasons folks cited for leaving New Jersey were for retirement (32%) and being closer to family (also 32%). Getting a new job was also a key motivator for 20%.
However, a poll by Monmouth University last year found that a record 59% of New Jerseyans would like to move “at some point,” which is an increase from previous polls. This could be due to the Garden State’s high property tax burden, which is only rising higher, with the high cost of living pushing many to seek shelter elsewhere.
2. Illinois
For the Illinoisans leaving the state, the choice came down to moving for a new job (31%), family (30%), retirement (24%) and a new lifestyle (22%).
This marked almost a decade of straight losses for Illinois, with residents looking for more affordable living. Interestingly, nearly 52% of those who left the state in 2022 earned more than $150,000 a year.
Considering Illinois “offers” one of the highest combined local and state tax rates — and the second-highest property taxes — in the country, it’s unsurprising high earners are eager to set up shop elsewhere.
Read more: Boomer’s remorse: Here are the top 5 ‘big money’ purchases you’ll (probably) regret in retirement and how to prepare for them
3. New York
New York, New York, it’s a hell of a state. And it’s a hell of a cost to live there as well. Once again, retirement topped the list as the main reason New Yorkers left (31%), with lifestyle and family tied for second (both 28%).
Similarly to Illinois, 48.75% of residents earning more than $150,000 chose to leave the state, with 36.87% aged 65 or older. With rents climbing higher and higher and taxes through the roof, it’s easy to see why many choose to leave the Empire State.
Yet there’s some evidence that those who left during the pandemic are now coming back as real estate prices drop. Still, those wanting to move to the Big Apple will need to have a housing budget above $1.3 million if they hope to buy their homes.
4. Michigan
On the other side of Lake Erie, Michigan lost slightly more residents than it welcomed in 2022, with 57% choosing to make their homes elsewhere.
The two top reasons for that were family (33%) and a new job (30%). In fact, cost doesn’t seem to be a huge factor, with just 2% of movers choosing to leave for that reason. The 65+ cohort was the lion’s share of the movers, accounting for 34%.
And although the cost of living is generally low in the state, considering the harsh winters there, it’s no surprise some might want to leave the Great Lakes State for sunnier pastures.
5. Wyoming
Wrapping up the top five is Wyoming. As Americans ditch the cold weather for warmer, less-occupied states, the clear reason for many Wyomingites to leave came from finding a new job (40%).
What’s shocking, however, is that it seems many residents who chose to leave hadn’t been there very long.
Wyoming received a massive influx of movers during the pandemic, with many choosing to embrace its wide open spaces. However, it looks like the move wasn’t permanent for many. The largest outflux came from those making anywhere under $100,000. And demographically, the majority were 55 and older. So perhaps Americans wanting to retire and needing the cash on hand chose to look elsewhere for it.
Bottom line for Wyoming is if the state can’t offer low costs and jobs, Americans aren’t going to stay long.
Got a quote on the cost to do solar shingles that would produce 52% of our electric needs. 45k. Using the insurance money and if we could get federal rebate would still be 18k out of pocket to save $1,200 a year. Not worth it. Signed up for 100% renewable electricity instead.
Interesting that even with your unique insurance ‘subsidy’ the numbers can’t produce a clearing return…
Beer- re: “rent or head to Florida or Texas”
Nah Tajikistan sounds more appealing than those two places.
I want to be in the mountains skiing freshies every chance I get until I die. I can always hop on a plane and hit up the coasts from there anytime I feel the need to smell the salt air.
Las Vegas is not a far flight to any of the freshies.
beer- I just saw one of those new GAF roofs, does not look all that great.. What is the difference cost per sq ft of those vs standard solar panels?
SLC for the best combo of convenience and freshies and flights.
no booze but bigamy may make up for it.
Those Mormon chicks are super pretty too. Many of them blue-eyed blonds. But I heard they have beards where the sun don’t shine.
I’ve skied SLC many times. Great snow, up top, but lots of corn snow as you get midway to the base. Not a lot to do down by the lake. Can’t afford to live up by the slopes. Though it’s really only a 45 minute drive from where real estate is pretty cheap. Again, it’s a Mormon hell to those who aren’t.
Left – SLC is always nice Park City, Alta, Canyons.
I was actually thinking of Canada lol.. My wife’s friend from college lives up north of Vancouver and is married to a former pro snowboarder. Awesome wedding we went to there incredible snow conditions etc. I happen to like Whistler the most the village elevation is only 2,200 ft so you really don’t get the same altitude effects that you would in Utah or Colorado including sun damage. I spent a day skiing with an older retired couple up there, both incredibly fit for 70 + years old, and pretty much had a blast every day.
Anecdotal a good friend of mine was very short of breath at our trip to Aspen, the top runs there are 10,000 ft. He really could not handle snowboarding at that height. Guy is an ex-marine and incredibly fit at the time when he was about 39 years old. We had to send him back down the gondola. His wife at the time was a ski instructor too, she was bummed. I even and went and got him a small portable oxygen tank, but what he really needed was more time to acclimatize. Cannot get that in a week when you are zipping up and down 10,000 ft across various mountains along rt 70 in Colorado.
Who knows if my joints will hold up by the time I get there. Might have to go bionic and get titanium.
Left wing
I was surprised at how little we would save. Even with the insurance chipping in for the cost of a 30 year asphalt shingle roof minus our deduction the number still were not worth it. We wound up putting more money into the youngest kids 529 fund. And we’re going to do some landscaping and extend the patio and get an awning with the rest of the funds we were willing to put into solar shingles roof.
We also looked at getting a more hail resistant roof and a multicolor 30 year asphalt roof. The hail resistant roof was 6k more and get take 2” hail. The multi color roof is 2k more. We’re just going to replace the roof with regular 30 year shingles as close to original shade as possible. For less than 2k we can get 2 90 gallon size crape Myrtle trees installed and have money left over.
Juice
Not sure on the cost difference. Solar shingles for our roof would be a little over 2 times more than standard asphalt. A solar panel install would be 20-25k. I think getting a new asphalt roof with solar panels is roughly the same as doing the gaf solar shingles.
Now’s the time to load up on stocks that got dented in the bear market.
After 2022’s savage bear market, buying opportunities are everywhere. Growth stocks got hit especially hard, and that means investors who buy the dip could set themselves up for favorable returns down the road.
With that in mind, here are a pair of exceptional growth stocks that are cheaper than they used to be and also likely to soar if a bull market comes.
1. Ginkgo Bioworks
Down by 67% from a year ago, Ginkgo Bioworks (DNA -2.16%) is a biotech growth stock that has a solid chance of being a favorite pick during the next bull market. While it isn’t profitable yet, its business model is exceptional, and here’s why.
Microorganisms like yeast and bacteria are useful because they can be genetically engineered and cultured at large scale to produce chemicals that companies need, like nucleic acids for vaccines, or small molecules for drug development.
However, it’s quite difficult to get microorganisms to do exactly what you want them to do — even in the tightly controlled context of a petri dish. And growing them at industrial scale presents additional challenges that make the entire endeavor somewhat intimidating for many businesses to approach. That’s where Ginkgo comes in, acting as a development partner to help companies engineer and manufacture customized cell platforms so that they don’t need to experience the headache of doing it in-house.
During a bear market, such an ambitious and unproven model is what likely led to Ginkgo’s tumbling stock price. And that’s even as it launched 59 new collaborations in 2022 while bringing in upwards of $478 million in sales, a 52% rise over 2021’s total.
During a new bull market, however, investors could focus on Ginkgo’s ever-improving economies of scale, in which each new program it initiates drives down its costs while adding to its knowledge base. Moreover, the company focuses heavily on automation at every stage of the cell engineering and manufacturing process. Growth-hungry investors might appreciate Ginkgo’s increasing efficiency.
Just be aware that this company’s growth potential is not guaranteed, and it’s quite a risky purchase, especially right now. It’s entirely possible that its emphasis on robotics and fancy machine learning techniques will end up as an expensive and unprofitable folly. Still, if you’re not afraid to bet on an innovative business that’s looking to efficiently solve one of biopharma’s most persistent problems, it’s worth considering before the bull market rolls around.
https://twitter.com/beeken_health/status/1632700711963340803?s=46&t=0eaRjeKWHSIY8WCyPT4KMg
This is the way…
Beer same 7 KW of power or less?
Beer point is the GAF is same install as regular shingles with some minor mods for wiring, the average joe swinging a hammer should be able to install with some training. I would think the margin is higher with little competition that is why I was wondering what the output would be. How many KW? Is it on the quote? How much they trying to make per kwh?
Juice
Sorry, I don’t remember. I saw 45k. Then we would pay 32k if we could get the federal rebate and it would only produce 52% of our electricity. Our electric bills average around $200 a month. I was doing the math in my head with and without the insurance amount and tuned out the rest of the sales pitch. Everything was on a tablet too. We got nothing in writing. I think it was for 9 kilowatts or 12.9 but not positive. It was around 280 solar shingles.
Our roof has tons of slopes and weird angles so the solar shingles were going to be scattered all over the place. If the house faced a different direction and had a large solid area like a big ranch style we would have gotten a bigger percentage of our electric needs. Not worth it for us though even with the insurance subsidy and federal rebate. We would only get a 5-6% return on our money.
Paying the extra $1,500 to get a Hyundai or Kia non plug in hybrid makes more economical sense. I think the break even in that at $3 a gallon is around 55k miles.