How much higher can rents go?

From Zumper:

New York City Metro Report

This entry was posted in Demographics, Economics, Employment, New Jersey Real Estate, NYC. Bookmark the permalink.

71 Responses to How much higher can rents go?

  1. grim says:

    Need some rain, or NJ is going to start lighting up like Canada.

    https://www.nj.gov/dep/parksandforests/fire/infotools/conditions-restrictions.html

  2. grim says:

    Suspect this will look far uglier when it’s updated for this week:

    https://dep.nj.gov/drought/current-conditions/

  3. RentRentalRight says:

    The thing I want to see is Hackensack. So many 5 over 1 wooden boxes faux luxury rental complexes built. Surely all of them built with loans that were sold into CMBS which have requirements that rents are not dropped for the terms of the loan to be valid and the asking rents are way above market.

    Those that were not sold are in some regional bank’s book. So either regional banks take hits or those CMBS loans terms are opened to allow reduced rents. 10 years from now we could be talking about someone that bought out the failed apartments complexes at deep discount.

    If you are a smart renter to be you negotiate over free months in the lease terms not over rent. Because reducing official rent is next to impossible with those CMBS.

  4. leftwing says:

    first to say first…

  5. leftwing says:

    “You are the one who is always crying when someone tries to pigeonhole you. Perhaps you should stop doing the same to others.”

    I do, when it is directed at me personally. And on the rare occasion when I do that to another individual and I’m incorrect I’ll step up and acknowledge.

    Generally, which is my comment, there is obviously a huge and growing Left/Right divide and there are broad philosophical strokes that separate them. Hard to argue that point, no?

  6. leftwing says:

    Lib, I think I’m right where you are now…basically looking at that same budget for new. Done a bunch of online research, hitting a dealership or two today.

    A bit frustrated…aside from my style/ruggedness dichotomy the US manufacturers have really dialed back engine options…I recall that Ford dropped the V8 on its Explorer (good looking current model) a while back, did not realize they were down into the 2.X L range with turbo (ugh). Ditto Jeep, although they still have that basic workhorse 3.6L six. And more recently both models have gone unibody…I mean wtf, 2L unibody AWD just make them cars at this point….

    A lot of recommendations for BMW X whatever, including my kids….seems pricey and are AWD, not 4WD. Plus too ‘pretty’ for some places I will take it. Have had over time, a long time so things can change, SUVs of Jeep (at least 8), Ford (3), BMW, Mercedes, and Porsche. Good experiences all. Not a bad one in the bunch.

    Last two are out, BMW noted issues…may just go Jeep Grand Cherokee and look at the 3 seater…not thrilled, specifically like the styling of the 2 seater over the three, but so long as I don’t look like a dad of middle schoolers in it that seems to be the only frame-on-body available outside of the Japanese/Koreans….despite their good styling and no unibody, not going to jump into a brand new at this age….

  7. Juice Box says:

    Left – 2024 models coming soon..

    How about this SUV 4WD ? Up to 830 Horsepower with 3 electric motors and green color too..

    What better way to signal even you are an eco-bro too? The interior is as manly as it gets too….Looks like you are ready to invade some 3rd world country in style.

    How many other SUVs can do a crab walk?

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yshPgVxyo1Q

  8. Grim says:

    Body on frame anything = $50k

  9. Phoenix says:

    Just get a G wagon.

    And start listening to rap music.

    The youth will love you.

  10. Phoenix says:

    Doesn’t matter. We are still sending work overseas, have robots that make bagels, and millons of people on Twitter, Facebook, and Instagram believing that the wildfires are full of toxic smoke from the missing Ammonium Nitrate.

    Haha. Just keep shooting each other, Job security for me. Maybe I should open a breathing treatment center, cash or bitcoin only.

    grim says:
    June 8, 2023 at 8:50 am
    Hey now.

    https://www.marketwatch.com/story/jobless-claims-leap-to-21-month-high-of-261-000-818ce50e?mod=home-page

  11. Juice Box says:

    Looks like they found a use for all of those stockpiled N95 masks…NY giving them away.

    ” One million N95 masks will be given out Thursday at transportation hubs throughout the boroughs including Grand Central Terminal”

  12. Phoenix says:

    Just another mess boomer created and is leaving for their children.

    If you have some Grey Poupon and a private jet, just so you know, the smoke doesn’t reach the Bahamas.

  13. bear says:

    Back to work requirements trump over any air quality alert.

  14. Phoenix says:

    The executives of corporate America are stepping up efforts to get workers back into the office, using a combination of threats and incentives to get employees to give up the work-from-home lifestyle they adopted in the first years of the covid-19 pandemic.

    For over a year, Google has asked workers to come in three days a week, luring them with free food and other perks. But now, the company is getting serious. On Wednesday, the company told workers that they must comply with the three-day requirement or their nonattendance could show up on their performance reviews.

    At Farmers Insurance, many workers are being asked to return to offices three days a week starting in September, even after they were told last year that remote work was here to stay.

  15. The Great Pumpkin says:

    I had some woman telling me this yesterday. I just smiled, while thinking wtf is she talking about. Then a friend shared the tic toc with me…smh.

    Conspiracy theories were left for dead by the 90s. Social media brought the movement back, stronger than ever. Now everything is a f/ing conspiracy. Esp with the MAGA crowd…it’s so f’ing annoying at this point. Thanks, Trump.

    Phoenix says:
    June 8, 2023 at 8:54 am
    Doesn’t matter. We are still sending work overseas, have robots that make bagels, and millons of people on Twitter, Facebook, and Instagram believing that the wildfires are full of toxic smoke from the missing Ammonium Nitrate.

  16. Phoenix says:

    I’m sorry, we have to let you go. We assessed your value as a human being and you don’t have much, so you have been replaced by one trillion cheaper transistors.

    They come pre “trans” so we are ready for the new world, no drama.

    When ChatGPT came out last November, Olivia Lipkin, a 25-year-old copywriter in San Francisco, didn’t think too much about it. Then articles about how to use the chatbot on the job began appearing on internal Slack groups at the tech start-up where she worked as the company’s only writer.

    Over the next few months, Lipkin’s assignments dwindled. Managers began referring to her as “Olivia/ChatGPT” on Slack. In April, she was let go without explanation, but when she found managers writing about how using ChatGPT was cheaper than paying a writer, the reason for her layoff seemed clear.

  17. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Just remember, everyone laughed at me when I took the position from the get go at the start of this WFH trend. I always said it was a result of an overheated bubble labor market. I stand by that, as we see what is happening now that the labor market is starting to get hurt. You really think a company wants to have no office and all remote workers? You really think they want to pay top dollar for people to watch their kids at home? Wake the f up. This never had a chance to stay long-term.

    Phoenix says:
    June 8, 2023 at 9:11 am
    The executives of corporate America are stepping up efforts to get workers back into the office, using a combination of threats and incentives to get employees to give up the work-from-home lifestyle they adopted in the first years of the covid-19 pandemic.

    For over a year, Google has asked workers to come in three days a week, luring them with free food and other perks. But now, the company is getting serious. On Wednesday, the company told workers that they must comply with the three-day requirement or their nonattendance could show up on their performance reviews.

    At Farmers Insurance, many workers are being asked to return to offices three days a week starting in September, even after they were told last year that remote work was here to stay.

  18. Fast Eddie says:

    punkin noggin was right about housing and remote work! ;)

  19. Phoenix says:

    No follow up on the missing Ammonium Nitrate, something most of us used to use west of 287?

    I can tell you were it is. Just look between the rails of the track. If you don’t need a herbicide to keep the weeds down it is because there is a crapload right there.
    If the weeds are growing really fast, then the conductor is a good farmer and fed the plants the correct amount.

  20. Juice Box says:

    re: toxic smoke….yeah that’s it the stuff was taken from California to north or Quebec and burned, so it can smog up NYC.

    Did they check the train tracks for it? The pellet fertilizer? That stuff leaked out of the bottom hopper gate on the railcar as it traveled for two weeks over bumpy tracks. It is transported like they do coal and corn railcar has and hoppers at the bottom of the rail car to unload it.

    Like this..

    https://tinyurl.com/bdeyhjxk

    Stuff leaked out… I have seen tons of corn, coal, and other stuff leaked from rail cars on train tracks. This is no different…

  21. Phoenix says:

    GP,
    It will stay long term. For some.

    It’s all about leverage. If you are in debt, you are a slave, you don’t have leverage.

    Those that have to work and whose employers insist, will show up.

    The rest will stay at home.

    That’s how it works.

  22. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Thanks…hopefully I am correct about DNA long-term!

    Fast Eddie says:
    June 8, 2023 at 9:23 am
    punkin noggin was right about housing and remote work! ;)

  23. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Prior to the pandemic, there was a portion that WFH. It was usually your high achievers that can handle it. No way can the majority of workers handle it, it was never going to stay for the majority.

    Phoenix says:
    June 8, 2023 at 9:33 am
    GP,
    It will stay long term. For some.

    It’s all about leverage. If you are in debt, you are a slave, you don’t have leverage.

    Those that have to work and whose employers insist, will show up.

    The rest will stay at home.

    That’s how it works.

  24. Juice Box says:

    Phoenix – re: “you have been replaced by one trillion cheaper transistors.”

    That is a pretty good prediction. Intel says chips will contain a trillion transistors in about seven years about 10x more that current fabrication processes can do today. All in keeping with Moore’s Law.

  25. Phoenix says:

    Some posts by ladies that call themselves “Dog Mom” and “Domestic Goddess,” two respected journalists.

    Was scrolling and reading a bunch last night and it seems, at least to this conspiracy theorist that this smoke could be from the 60,000 lbs of Ammonium Nitrate that disappeared between Wyoming and California at the end of May.
    What are the colors you are seeing in the sky?
    At high enough temperatures, ammonium nitrate can violently decompose on its own. This process creates toxic and potentially lethal gases.
    Dangerous Conditions
    Ammonium nitrate becomes dangerous if subjected to condi- tions such as:
    • Fire
    • Heating in a confined space
    • Localized heating potentially leading to the development of high-temperature areas (such as confined areas in which a small amount of a larger store of ammonium nitrate is heated)
    • Exposure to strong shock waves

    Reply: A friend posted this on fb

    Reply: that’s highly possible! I did see a few people post about this 🤬

  26. bear says:

    Employees are waiting for economic dust to settle. Especially those whose TC hasn’t adjusted with inflation/market rate.

    https://news.bloomberglaw.com/daily-tax-report-state/leaving-new-york-for-miami-can-save-nearly-200-000-a-year

    TLDR : Those making 650000 in NYC will save nearly 200000 moving to Miami.

  27. The Great Pumpkin says:
  28. Fast Eddie says:

    “How West Palm Beach was transformed into ‘Wall Street South’”

    https://nypost.com/2023/02/17/west-palm-beach-has-become-wall-street-south/

  29. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Lifestyles of the rich and famous! The rich developing another playground for themselves.

  30. Juice Box says:

    Pumps – Nothing Burger, they just need more defense spending… Signals intelligence ” monitoring of a range of communications, including emails, phone calls and satellite transmissions.”

    They would need to tap the fiber optic cables that run everywhere. Even then if they could tap it (like we do, Hello NSA!!) the data it is all mostly encrypted. There is the MI1 in Miami. A Network Access Point (NAP) for the USA from allot of places. 160 network carriers operate out of there.

    Let’s tell the Chinese where it is…

    https://www.google.com/maps/place/50+NE+9th+St,+Miami,+FL

  31. Phoenix says:

    Boomer capitalists built up Chinese manufacturing in order to profit. Looks like the Chinese, unlike Americans, actually show up at their jobs:

    China’s navy has significant advantages over its US rival, including a bigger fleet and greater shipbuilding capacity, as Beijing seeks to project its power across the oceans, the head of the United States Navy said Tuesday.

    Del Toro said Tuesday that US naval shipyards can’t match the output of Chinese ones. As with fleet size, it’s about numbers.

    “They have 13 shipyards, in some cases their shipyard has more capacity – one
    shipyard has more capacity than all of our shipyards combined. That presents a real threat,” he claimed.

    One big US problem is finding skilled labor, he said.

    “[W]hen you have unemployment at less than 4%, it makes it a real challenge whether you’re trying to find workers for a restaurant or you’re trying to find workers for a shipyard,” the Navy leader said.

    He also said China can do things the US can’t.

    “They’re a communist country, they don’t have rules by which they abide by,” he said.

    “They use slave labor in building their ships, right – that’s not the way we should do business ever, but that’s what we’re up against so it does present a significant advantage,”

  32. Phoenix says:

    Chinese version of NATO. America is in debt, China will buy Cuba:

    Some 21 countries in Latin America are signed up to Beijing’s Belt and Road Initiative – a defining policy introduced by President Xi Jinping in 2013 that wins power and influence by funding global infrastructure projects.

    Chinese state banks have loaned $136 billion to Latin American countries since 2005 with terms US officials have dubbed a ‘spiraling trap’. The cash has funded everything from major energy projects to roads, sports stadiums and covid vaccines.

    Meanwhile, private Chinese firms control major ports on the Panama Canal which US officials say ‘could be turned quickly toward military capabilities’.

    China also supplies the majority of Mexico’s telecoms equipment and mine vast amounts of crucial minerals on the continent.

  33. Phoenix says:

    The enemy of my enemy is my friend.

    Keep posting to the Canadians that they owe you over the smoke from the fire greedy Americans.

    Good way to make friends.

  34. The Great Pumpkin says:

    China is goal focused on becoming leader of the world. Everyone should be scared of the thought of a Communist dictatorship running the world. Your rights could go away quickly…

  35. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Thing is, they are facing a demographic timebomb. America should be able to win out in the end. What scares me, is how desperate Chinese leadership will get under the conditions presented by this demographic timebomb. They loaned all this money out to all these countries, aka will own them. Going to be a major test for our country. Believe we will come out the winner, but this could get ugly. Hopefully, chinese leadership doesn’t become desperate.

  36. The Great Pumpkin says:

    “As the school year ends, parents will feel pressure to load summer activities onto the pristine schedules of their early-adolescent children. Should they? It might be the perfect time to recall the mantra of my 1980s childhood: You have everything you need.

    Generation X, lurking between the more demographically significant boomer and Generation Z cohorts, isn’t consulted much. But here it’s a loss, since doing more with less has always been our stock-in-trade.

    This is how I remember every summer day during my coming-of-age years: underplanned and overenjoyed. My friends and I roamed from neighborhood to neighborhood like gallant knights atop trusty, two-wheeled steeds. Most of us latchkey kids, we thrived under rules of engagement born of the weekday absence of parents, babysitters, camp counselors and adult supervision generally.

    Our rule in backyard football—“losers walk”—exemplified the spirit. Under this regime, the team that scored a touchdown got to stay in the end zone where they’d just found pay dirt. The other side hoofed it to the opposite end zone to receive kickoff.

    The losers walk, which felt longer than it was, was marked by some carping over who’d blown coverage. Mostly, though, you talked about necessary tweaks to the defensive scheme. Our priorities were clear: Forget what bad has happened, what is the workaround?

    In the driveway, “make it, take it” ruled the realm of half-court basketball. This meant you retained possession as long as your team kept scoring. The precept encouraged teamwork and accountability, both of which made us better players.

    An invitation indoors for a drink was nice but hardly necessary when every house had a perfectly good garden hose attached to it. Some of the most thirst-quenching gulps in my life happened not at a fancy beach resort in adulthood but third-in-the-trough-line in Tommy’s sunbaked backyard.

    When beverage bidding included a snack, a dilemma occasionally presented itself. Two friendly foragers sometimes scavenged enough grub for only one bologna sandwich. Here “tear-and-share,” the Solomonic rule by which one person split the sandwich while the other chose the half he wanted, governed.

    While my younger brother, Jack, was convinced he could make self-advantageous cuts invisible to the untrained eye, the rule generally produced equitable results. All this suburban-frontier justice from device-free kids simply left to their own devices.

    Adolescents in my neighborhood still play basketball in their driveways. Fewer play backyard football and nobody, it seems, drinks from the garden hose. It might be time for my generation to get involved. Jack can prepare the sandwiches.”

    https://www.wsj.com/articles/generation-x-did-summer-vacation-right-basketball-football-children-schedule-a4dc7962?mod=hp_opin_pos_2#cxrecs_s

  37. Phoenix says:

    The only one taking your rights away Pumpkin are those much closer to you.

    I don’t fear the Chinese one bit. It’s more likely that America will become like China without China having to do one thing.

    The Great Pumpkin says:
    June 8, 2023 at 11:02 am
    China is goal focused on becoming leader of the world. Everyone should be scared of the thought of a Communist dictatorship running the world. Your rights could go away quickly…

  38. grim says:

    Not for nothing but playing manhunt in any neighborhood today is liable to get you shot.

  39. grim says:

    We played Sperling Park Rules.

    Home Base was the scoreboard on the main field – strict no guarding rules.

    Bounds was the two blocks of houses surrounding the park – the immediate street, and a street over. This also included the railroad tracks, woods, and the factories behind (including the Milk Store) parking lots.

    It was pretty regular to have large teams, 10-15 a side easy.

    Game usually started at Dusk. We played into Dark.

    I remember hiding on top of people’s detached garages, in garbage cans, under their cars in the driveways, under decks, etc.

  40. grim says:

    The scoreboard was out in the open – meaning you needed to sprint at least 50 or more feet through wide open to make it to base (from the closest part of the woods).

    Or, you’d need to sprint clear across the ball fields, and everyone looking would pop out of nowhere dead set on tackling you before you made it to the posts.

    Oh, and there were the fences around the fields too. Depending on your sprint strategy, it might require you to hop a fence along the way. God how many people got caught at the top of those fences. Remember once when I slipped at the top of one of the fences in the neighborhood, back when the galvanized fence wire twisted to a point at the top. Caught my calf as I was falling, damn near meat hooked me. I don’t think I even stopped playing.

    It was like the killing field.

  41. Trick says:

    The seniors in our HS play senior assassin at the end of every year with water guns. Kids put in $25 each and the winning team gets the $. Game last for weeks as each team is eliminated. Kids dressed in camo, hiding in bushes, trees etc. Cops put out a warning to the public when it starts so no kid get shot. Sons team split the winnings with another team last year.

  42. Libturd says:

    Senior assassin is played in GR too, but you need only get tagged. Every person for themselves too. Last person untouched wins. School property is the safe zone to your car. Each person is assigned someone else to tag initially. Once tagged, you report in killed and they assign a new person to the tagger. It takes weeks too. Especially when friends gang up to create Survivor teams.

  43. Trick says:

    They are in teams of 2 and are assigned a target each round, they had a rule when u could be shot in ur underwear, so my son would were is boxers out to the car.

  44. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Grim,

    Damn, bringing back good memories of that neighborhood and park. Manhunt was intense!.. lol Was awesome that so many kids played.

    Might not have had much growing up, but we had a ton of fun making the best of what we had.

  45. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Wayne does a similar thing with the water gun survivor game. That’s one thing the current generation is doing better than my generation. Would have loved to do this. Sounds like so much fun.

  46. Randy says:

    Cool story bro.
    Then you came out in favor of mandating covid jabs. No apologies.
    Oh and Ukraine was going to wipe the Russians right off the battlefield.
    Chugging the Koolaid…

  47. Randy's fairy godmother says:

    Lighten up Francis.

  48. 3b says:

    Any recommendations on a new fridge, compressor is going, it’s about 10 years old , so not worth repairing. I have a GE now, side by side, water and ice dispenser. I don’t want anything fancy.

  49. Old realtor says:

    Leftwing,
    The divide is deep, too deep. Not good for anyone or anything. Sad state of affairs.

    Maybe you should consider turning down your rhetoric for that sake of unity. Stability is good for business.

  50. Libturd says:

    The worst part of the divide too is that the majority of the narratives are complete BS generated by the extremes. At the end of the day, the two sides share the same common needs for the most part.

  51. ExEx says:

    2:05 Kitchenaid

  52. Libturd says:

    Kitchenaid and LG again. Stay away from Bosch and GE.

  53. Libturd says:

    These are for the low end, btw. CR seems to agree, but loves Bosch. Everyone I know who has a Bosch is constantly needing reparis.

  54. leftwing says:

    “The divide is deep, too deep…Maybe you should consider turning down your rhetoric for that sake of unity.”

    Maybe. Candidly though, not trolling or throwing this out for reaction, I do believe it is too far gone. I think we’re beyond the point of maintaining unity.

    As before when I tossed this idea out not suggesting secession or anything that dramatic. Just something like a Federation. Keep a couple common basics at the federal level, defense, maybe coinage and then push everything else down to two separate entities.

    There’s no anger or emotion or ranting here, just pure analytics. It ain’t working. So as with any divorce get it done quickly and let everyone go about their business.

    And the divide is as you say too deep.

  55. The Great Pumpkin says:

    It is a Bifurcated Economy.

    White Collar entering a recession.

    Blue Collar absolutely booming.

    Tech bros preach doom and gloom and are the loudest on this platform.

    But, anyone working in a trade is more busy now than they’ve ever been.

    https://twitter.com/marketplunger1/status/1666615257014452224?s=46&t=0eaRjeKWHSIY8WCyPT4KMg

  56. 3b says:

    Ex/ Lib: Thanks for the recommendations. My Brother had a Bosch, and hated it, constantly needed servicing.

  57. trick says:

    GM is now adopting the tesla J1772 connector and super charger network, had to after Ford’s move. Not a tesla fan but there charging network is bar none. CCS standard in the US is done. They will all be sending money to Elon.

  58. SmallGovConservative says:

    Phoenix says:
    June 8, 2023 at 9:11 am
    “The executives of corporate America are stepping up efforts to get workers back into the office…”

    If my place is any indication of how things will go, employees will huff-and-puff and then start schlepping into the office. The people that were dead set against ever returning to the office — at least those with options — left in the summer/fall of 2021 when the RTO rumblings started. All of the other whiners eventually realized they were nothing more than easily-replaceable cogs, and when told to either show up 3x/week, or be considered to have abandoned their jobs (and fired), they folded like cheap suits — office is jam packed in the middle of the week.

  59. ExEx says:

    Hey as long as Elon is building infrastructure I’m down with him making bank.

  60. SmallGovConservative says:

    Old realtor says:
    June 8, 2023 at 2:37 pm
    “The divide is deep, too deep. Not good…Maybe you should consider turning down your rhetoric”

    Says the name-caller that accuses people of being homophobes for pointing out that “pride” events have turned into massive monkeypox virus spreaders.

  61. trick says:

    Agree, better then sending it to the VW groups Electrify America which has been a complete mess.

  62. The Great Pumpkin says:

    I am seriously ready to start building a position in tesla. Still enough hate out there for it to balance out the fan boi hype. I think i might do it. Like dna, so many avenues for revenue long-term.

  63. SmallGovConservative says:

    Libturd says:
    June 8, 2023 at 4:16 pm
    “The worst part of the divide too is that the majority of the narratives are complete BS generated by the extremes.”

    I’d be curious to know which conservative/right-wing/Rep narratives are BS? I actually think the worst part, and what makes things different now than in the past, is that these once-unthinkable narratives are real.

  64. Grim says:

    Going to be crowded at the Tesla chargers.

  65. Old Realtor says:

    Small,
    What is your position about homosexuality? Do you believe it should be outlawed? If you do, what about small government?

    Anyone who wants to legislative other people’s sex lives doesn’t believe in small government.

    The reality is, you are just an assh*le!

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