Cracks in the market?


New Jersey And Illinois Have Highest Concentrations Of Housing Markets At Risk Of Declines

ATTOM, a leading curator of land, property, and real estate data, today released a Special Housing Impact Report spotlighting county-level housing markets around the United States that are more or less vulnerable to declines, based on home affordability, foreclosures and other measures in the second quarter of 2023. The report shows that New Jersey and Illinois have the highest concentrations of the most-at-risk markets in the country, with the biggest clusters in the New York City, Chicago and Philadelphia areas. The South, along with other parts of the Northeast, are generally less exposed to market woes.

The second-quarter patterns – derived from gaps in home affordability, underwater mortgages, foreclosures and unemployment – revealed that New Jersey and Illinois had 23 of the 50 counties most vulnerable to potential drop-offs. Those concentrations dwarfed other parts of the country amid a time of significant uncertainty when the U.S. housing market was rebounding from a period of flat or falling values.

The 50 counties at the top of the most vulnerable list included eight in and around New York City, six in the Chicago metropolitan area and three in or near Philadelphia. Another six were scattered through northern, central and southern California. A majority of the rest were in Indiana and along the East Coast.

Seventeen of the 50 U.S. counties considered most vulnerable in the second quarter of 2023 to housing market troubles (from among 574 counties with enough data to analyze) were in the metropolitan areas around Chicago, IL; New York, NY, and Philadelphia, PA.

The 50 most at-risk counties included two in New York City (Kings and Richmond counties, which cover Brooklyn and Staten Island), six in the New York City suburbs (Bergen, Essex, Ocean, Passaic, Sussex and Union counties, all in New Jersey) and six in the Chicago metropolitan area (Cook, De Kalb, Kane, Kendall, and Will counties in Illinois, and Porter County in Indiana). The three in the Philadelphia, PA, metro area that were among the top 50 in the second quarter were Philadelphia County, PA, Gloucester County, NJ, and Camden County, NJ.

The highest foreclosure rates in the top 50 counties were in Sussex County, NJ (outside New York City) (one in 421 residential properties facing possible foreclosure); Cumberland County (Vineland), NJ, (one in 439); Warren County, NJ (outside Allentown, PA (one in 468); Cuyahoga County (Cleveland), OH (one in 480) and Camden County, NJ (one in 483).

This entry was posted in Demographics, Economics, Employment, Foreclosures, Housing Bubble, New Jersey Real Estate. Bookmark the permalink.

33 Responses to Cracks in the market?

  1. Chad Powers says:

    In Budapest now. Great weather.

  2. grim says:

    Breezy and 70 up here in NNJ, it’s probably glorious at the shore. This summer is going to be a hot one…

  3. Juice Box says:

    Lawns are all dried out and the water company sent everyone a voicemail to conserve.

    First day of camp, bus should be here any minute now, only going up to 81 F today, should be nice.

  4. 3b says:

    Eventually we will get a recession, and the cracks will widen. Lots of debt out these and inflation is still high.

  5. D-FENS says:

    I would have guessed FL and TX were more at risk.

  6. BRT says:

    Perfect weather in Boston right now. I’m outside urgent care. Think I have a kidney stone. Might be 2nd vacation in a row that is ruined

  7. 3b says:

    NY Fed reports credit card and auto delinquency rates among 18 to 39 year olds is fast appearing 2008/09 levels.

  8. grim says:

    Corelogic’s Q1 report shows NJ around 1.4% negative equity.

    Texas at 1.7%, Florida at 1.1%.

    Given the higher home prices relative to income in NJ, I’m not sure that’s so surprising. However, we’re talking about tenths of percentage points between these markets.

    Overall, the numbers are tiny, and probably most reflective of new buyers buying at these absolutely stratospheric prices.

    Negative equity numbers are largely irrelevant on the up cycle, this is a severely lagging indicator.

  9. Juice Box says:

    New home for sale a 5br in our neighborhood, open house was yesterday. I drove by twice, there were no lines and did not see anyone looking.

    House is already empty and move in for the school year. $990,000 list. Last sold for
    $625,000 in August of 2019.. Taxes are $14,512…It’s assessed low for some reason.

    That is $365,000 more with really no updates…does not even look like the pained the place in 2019.

  10. Juice Box says:

    Center Hall Colonial with the 2 story entrance are going for $1.4 million around here. Homes built in 1996 or so and sold for $425,000 back then… A million in gain……….

  11. Chi back home says:

    Re: inflation. I always viewed Chicago has a relatively less expensive area. I felt as if I was getting “$50 to death”. Anything I did was $50. Except the parking at Wrigley which was $60. First day we took the “L” up there, but they fucked it up. They instituted positive train control with maybe a 20 mph limit. Incredibly stupid and frustrating. So the train doesn’t go 20. It accelerates then brakes over and over. The only thing I can fathom is that people must be getting struck on the tracks since Covid, and so they’re doing it for liability reasons. But it’s so counterproductive because all it does is drive people to their cars. What a fucking stupidly run city and that is only one example

  12. No One says:

    1996 to 2024, inflation cut the spending power of a dollar in half.
    So the inflation rate would have taken $425k to $850k if that house had been neutral to inflatoin. The rest is the rising expensiveness of housing.
    I wonder what the financial characteristics are of people buying such houses.
    Stretching their monthly budgets to reach, or maybe these are people with financial market gains (bitcoin and NVDA?) who are redeploying their cash? People buying are only a small % of the population now.
    But there are countries where common measures of affordability relative to average wages have been higher than in the US for decades. Like Australia, UK.

  13. No One says:

    “positive train control” was imposed federally by the rail regulator. It was outdated tech 10 years before it got implemented. Brakes on became the new default for rails.
    If there was ever a case for autonomous vehicles, it should be on railroads. Closed track, only occasional and also tracked traffic. So much easier than trucks or cars on the road.
    However, one party is the party of promoting union jobs, so rail unions get protected at the expense of the ability of railroads to benefit from real advances in technology. So we get mandated numbers of rail union workers and mandatory outdated braking technology, instead of actually advanced train systems.

    This is the sort of thing Libturd used to rail against.

  14. Juice Box says:

    Scammers stole 32,000 closing funds, somebody had to have inside info, realtor or attorney to pull this off.

  15. Juice Box says:

    Chi – It’s not PTC, it’s 200 miles of dilapidated tracks with no money to fix them, they are only preventing derailing, by having half the tracks at 20 mph or below. It’s one of the many issues facing cities, billions they don’t have for infrastructure. Congestion pricing for NYC is because the MTA is fucked.

  16. grim says:

    Juice – only way that scam could have happened is if there was an insider.

    There is way too much non-public information needed to pull that off. These data points are not even in the MLS systems.

    4 possible locations – either broker, or either attorney, but for sure there.

    I don’t for a second believe either the buyer or seller emails were hacked.

    Or the buyers are trying to pull a fugazi. The husband gambled away the down payment and now he is covering that shit up.

  17. Hold my beer says:

    People wire down payments now a days? Buyer’s attorneys don’t do checks anymore?

  18. grim says:

    Agree, every transaction I’ve been party to has the down payment going into the selling attorney escrow account.

  19. NJCoast says:

    Sand storm at the beach. It’s been sweatshirt weather all week!

  20. BRT says:

    When I got my roof done, scammers hacked the roofing company’s email and tried to get us to bank routing.

  21. Hold my beer says:


    When we replaced our roof last year every round of payments I paid by check at the roofers office. It was 4 or 5 payments. The insurance company paid the bulk of it and every check they sent had to get endorsed by the bank that holds the mortgage before we could deposit it and pay the contractor.

  22. 3b says:

    Total U.S. Household Debt grew by 1 percent in 4 th quarter to 17.5 trillion. Consumer credit card delinquencies at a more than decade high, concentrated in the Millennial age group. Car loan debt outstanding added another billion to reach 1.6 trillion. Fed s Goolsbee sees these as warning signs, while laying out a dovish case for a couple of rate cuts this year. It is an election year of course, and so screw still high inflation.

  23. 3b says:

    Juice: NYC congestion pricing pulled until after the elections. The Democrats don’t want to own that right before an election. I would not be surprised if Joe gave Cathy a call and asked her to suspend it.

  24. Hold my beer says:

    Had 3 ash trees trimmed and treated today to protect them from borer beetles.

    Last year I pruned the trees myself. But the trees have gotten so big the garbage company wouldn’t haul away the branches. Had to rent a small box truck and take them to the dump. But because it was a box truck and not an open trailer I got hit with a dump fee. In our town we get 2 trips a year for free with an open 8 foot trailer for tree and lawn scraps. Spent 6 hours last year and saved less than $100 after truck rental and dump fees. Wasn’t worth the hassle.

  25. grim says:

    Need to cut down more trees, should have taken them all down.

  26. LAX says:

    4:33 pleased to see our 2018 Outback paid off in July.
    Plenty of life left in that beast. Last of the 6 cyl.
    Current interest rates + Car prices are prohibitively high.
    I feel for anyone paying current new car prices.

  27. Juice Box says:

    Re: cut down more trees

    I have 3 large Norway spruce trees leaning about 25 degrees towards my pool and patio they need to go and I have a large willow that needs to probably come down. My birch is also overgrown. I have a large magnolia out front that needs to be trimmed and another oak near the street that could be cut back as well.

    I also have a ton of shrubs to cut back too. It just never ends…

  28. Juice Box says:

    CHI – I even found the SLOW ZONE map for Chicago.

    All this track needs to be replaced, they even list track speeds. I can ride my bike faster than most of their trains.

  29. Hold my beer says:


    That sounds expensive. Our ash trees are about 25 feet tall and would have been $1,800 to cut down all 3 and grind the stumps. But it would have been another 3-4k to replace them with something bigger than a sapling.

    We’re going to plant 2 flowering native trees in the backyard this winter. In Texas January is the best time to plant trees.

  30. Juice Box says:

    Seems the real estate wire fraud is now pretty prevalent. Another NJ couple that lost 91,000 last year. Same circumstances, fake wire instructions sent by fake sellers attorney etc? This has to be an inside job.

    Cashiers check folks, get it the day of closing and don’t hand it over until the close meeting.

  31. Juice Box says:

    Beer – I wax looking at some old pics. The spruce trees grew from about 12 ft to 35 ft in the last 10 years. There is also a 50 footer behind them in the corner of my yard, that is just massive too, but seems to have stopped growing and is straight.

    I am thinking of trimming what I can in the early spring and paying the tree company to take out the rest. I’ll replant something, the norway spruce will grow up to 3ft every year..

  32. Juice Box says:

    Speaking of wire fraud, several attempts at my company recently to impersonate executives. The Feds aren’t going to do a damm thing either, I have met with the FBI and they warn everyone once that money is wired overseas it’s gone for good.

  33. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Will be funny if fast eddie’s clifton house ends up being worth more than his current home. Always believed clifton was a money spot based on location.

    “Clifton is particularly hot,” he said.

    It was ranked among the 100 best places to live by Livability last year, where it earned high marks for economic opportunities, educational opportunities and cost of living.

    And home prices keep going up.

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