From Barrons:
Home Sellers Are Dropping Prices, but Buyers Aren’t Budging. What Could Change That.
The number of homes listed for sale this spring has jumped, but as costs remain prohibitive, buyers aren’t returning with the same enthusiasm. A recession could change that by pushing prices lower in some parts of the U.S.
The disconnect can be seen to differing degrees across the U.S. In Dallas, where inventory is “starting to pile up,” more buyers are calling off their searches and choosing to wait, says Texas Re/Max agent Todd Luong. In New Jersey, one of the most competitive states for residential real estate, homes remain in high demand—but sellers aren’t seeing the frenzy they’re used to, says Michael Read, a Morristown-based mortgage lender and real estate agent. “Buyers aren’t as excited as they might have been in the past,” he says.
Nationally, existing-home sales are down 2.4% through April despite a 5.1% gain in the number of properties for sale, says National Association of Realtors senior economist Nadia Evangelou. Costs are an issue: “The market is seeing a recovery in listings, but demand remains soft due to affordability constraints,” she says.
Home prices rose roughly 40% in the first 2½ years of the pandemic—and a relatively short supply boosted them further even as mortgage rates raced to their highest levels in decades. Mortgage rates’ volatile moves since then—like the sharp swing toward 7% after Moody’s downgraded its rating on U.S. sovereign debt —haven’t helped.
The housing market is already shifting out of sellers’ favor, but buyers aren’t quite in the driver’s seat, either. Sellers expect the sky-high prices of 2021, while buyers want the burst-housing-bubble deals of 2011, says Leo Pareja, the CEO of eXp Realty. Neither expectation is a sure thing. Nationally, sellers cut prices on nearly one in five listings last month, a larger share than any April since at least 2017, according to Realtor.com. (News Corp, which owns Barron’s, also owns Realtor.com operator Move.)
That imbalance is working its way into the market through price cuts—a notable shift in a housing market that has broadly favored sellers for the past several years. “It’s going to become a buyer’s market,” says Ivy Zelman, executive vice president and co-founder of housing analytics firm Zelman & Associates.
A recession could change the equation more quickly. Recession odds have fallen precipitously in the wake of the China-U.S. trade agreement, with J.P. Morgan revising its call on the likelihood of a recession to less than 50% from 60%. The agreement has put a pause on the harshest possible outcomes—but the effects of the new levies have yet to fully play out in the economy.
…
Forecasts for home prices nationally are already flirting with declines. Zillow expects home values to drop 1.4% this year as more sellers entered the market than buyers. Susan Wachter, a professor of real estate at the University of Pennsylvania’s Wharton School, expects that nominal home prices could range from flat to up 2% this year—and that is without a recession.
1
At the Edinburgh airport now waiting on our flight to Frankfurt. A good trip and we had decent weather during the week.
Modern Farmhouse all over NC and VA. It’s all they are building, as far as the eye can see. White, Black, Board, Batten, Metal Roof, White, Black, Board, Batten, Metal Roof, White, Black, Board, Batten, Metal Roof, White, Black. Entirely character-less housing developments, even worse than the last bubble, where you at least had some variations on color and stone type.
OBX very interesting, they don’t do Memorial Day, certainly not Memorial Day Weekend as a big beach draw, it’s not even a thing. On the bright side, no stabbings. It did take us 10 hours to drive back though, that wasn’t fun.
“Buyers aren’t as excited as they might have been in the past,” he says.
Geez, I went from listening to a seminar on the future of AI this past Friday to this mastermind of infinite wisdom schooling us with one phrase of epic acuity!
They’re building the ‘modern farmhouse’ look everywhere! I see a lot of the metal roof construction now. I keep thinking you’ll bake like a chocolate chip cookie in your house in the midst of a summer heat wave.
On the bright side, no stabbings.
Wait… what? OBX has a rep for stabbings? I’ve been there, it was as peaceful as can be.
Oh, I just read that there were stabbings in Seaside Heights over the weekend. I believe that answers my question.
Upcoming recession
“ The number of homes listed for sale this spring has jumped, but as costs remain prohibitive, buyers aren’t returning with the same enthusiasm. A recession could change that by pushing prices lower in some parts of the U.S.”
It’s a tradition in Seaside Heights…. All drunk teenagers from north Jersey every prom season. The cheap motels and alcohol, the boardwalk becomes a battleground between rival groups. We did it back in the day too, they shut down the boardwalk back then too. Fights however were usually settled with fists not knives. Video on social media shows some women knocking out another woman on the boardwalk. About 1/3 of the arrests over the weekend were under 18 years old.
I remember going to the police station to bail out someone from our group who was staying at our motel and got arrested for fighting, crashed through a hotel door. Another drunk high school kid jumped off the second floor balcony and just missed the pool, broke his tailbone and both wrists landing hard on the edge of the pool. I ended up having to drive him to the hospital across the bridge. Called his parents and waited a few hours until they arrived, ah the memories of walking up in a dirty motel hung over and sunburnt and then getting an egg sandwich for breakfast.
Juice,
They’re leveling the motels in Seaside and replacing with high end condos. The re-imaging will take a while, so it seems.
VSG,
Considering your wealth, what are some of the ways you’ll help your community to lessen the brunt of the oncoming recession?
Lots of farm house style listings all over Bergen County, this disease does not appear to have hit northern Westchester yet. And these ugly things have a 7 handle , and 20k in taxes a year. They appear to be just sitting.
Prices too high, taxes too high, salaries too low , declining marriage and birth rate. It all comes together to no need no desire for houses
Anyone catch the orange imbecile staggering through a senile rambling speech
at West Point. Embarrassing dementia .
Vote Democrat.
They are good managing the economy and avoiding recession.
Fast Eddie says:
May 27, 2025 at 8:41 am
VSG,
Considering your wealth, what are some of the ways you’ll help your community to lessen the brunt of the oncoming recession?
During multiple points during his speech, which one person described as “dull as dishwater,” the president was found to be slurring his words rather than taking a breath between each. Once again, some attendees raised concerns about Trump’s age and the fact that many have sounded the alarm about his mental decline.
Link: https://www.irishstar.com/news/us-news/weary-slurring-trump-sparks-fresh-35283061
A renowned Harvard University professor was stripped of her tenure and fired after an investigation found she fabricated data on multiple studies focused on dishonesty.
Francesca Gino, a celebrated behavioral scientist at Harvard Business School, was let go after the school’s top governing board determined she tweaked observations in four studies so that their findings boosted her hypotheses, GHB reported.
In 2002-2008, I noticed that there was a serious intellectual dishonesty problem within the universities where people would draw whatever conclusions they want regardless of the picture the data actually presents. Today, it’s worse. They just plagiarize and fabricate data.
Here is a new Farmhouse…..nearby the crack house…. 🏠
They are knocking down tiny homes and building these things all over Monmouth County..next one uglier than the last.
https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/18-Neptune-Pl-Middletown-NJ-07748/53357928_zpid/?mmlb=g,0
Leave
Another monstrosity…. I would call this one a Barnhouse….
https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/2-Mohawk-Dr-Marlboro-NJ-07746/439286381_zpid/
Vote Democrat.
They are good managing the economy and avoiding recession.
I used to vote democrat. They kept raising my taxes, putting more regulations on our family business (which we sold years ago) impeding our success and expansion and blamed me for the last 2,000 years of the world’s injustices because as a white male, I was told I was evil.
Had a great weekend in Chicago with wife and the daughters. Older daughter turned 20 and we took her and a friend along for a trip.
The last time I was there was during Obamas inauguration. Had a lot of trips in the past but this was more fun watching it from the kids perspective. I am still lesrning how different kids of this generation are. They don’t ask anyone anything – they only “look up” information.
Food was a tad bit less expensive, and the restaurants were less crowded… maybe we lucked out because of the holiday weekend. I don’t remember it this way. We stayed by the magnificent mile and walked / public transported a lot. It was good to unplug – especially from the nasty politics, and get those steps.
Is it just me or people are relaxed everywhere except in the tri-state area?
10:40, Your argument doesn’t hold water.
How do you like the exponentially raising costs due to tariffs? About a 10% drop in inbound tourism. The non-stop political drama. If you are a business now you would know that it is more difficult now than ever before – mostly because of one megalomaniac.
“Democrats have blown millions of dollars on efforts to appeal to “American Men,” who turned to President Donald Trump in droves on election day, in the hopes of winning back the working class, according to a report.
Democrats have spent $20 million on their efforts, with donors and strategists holing up in luxury hotel rooms brainstorming how to convince working-class men to return to the party, according to a New York Times report.
The plan, code-named SAM, or “Speaking with American Men: A Strategic Plan,” promises to use the funds to “study the syntax, language and content that gains attention and virality in these spaces,” according to the report.
As the Times described it, the reports “can read like anthropological studies of people from faraway places.”
LMFAO!!! Omg, they’re going to study the male species to figure out what makes them tick. LMFAO!!!
Can you imagine being male and voting dem? LOLOLOL! This is priceless. Our fathers and grandfathers are turning red from embarrassment in their graves. Wow, this is a SNL skit if there ever was one. How to be a cool drinking a beer and watching football. LOL!
with donors and strategists holing up in luxury hotel rooms brainstorming how to convince working-class men…
Keep insulating yourselves while trying to figure out the obvious. I hope you don’t choke on your chardonnay as you ‘study the science.’
“Now, it says here that the real man says ‘pull my finger’ and chuckles. Shall we practice, gentlemen?”
LOL.
10:40 are you evil, or just stupid???
RentL0rd says:
May 27, 2025 at 10:50 am
Is it just me or people are relaxed everywhere except in the tri-state area?
>>>> Ignorance is bliss<<<<<<
Dark: is that your version of the ASCII dick?
The “Feminist” party.
Fucc you. Is the strategy to hand out drinks laced with progesterone?
Democrats have spent $20 million on their efforts, with donors and strategists holing up in luxury hotel rooms brainstorming how to convince working-class men to return to the party, according to a New York Times report.
The plan, code-named SAM, or “Speaking with American Men: A Strategic Plan,” promises to use the funds to “study the syntax, language and content that gains attention and virality in these spaces,” according to the report.
Chicago says:
May 27, 2025 at 11:38 am
Dark: is that your version of the ASCII dick?
My relaxed ASCII dick or my erect one?
The old Chicago political joke:
My father-in-law was a strict conservative republican his entire life, but ever since he died he’s voted democratic.
RentL0rd says:
May 27, 2025 at 10:50 am
Had a great weekend in Chicago with wife and the daughters. Older daughter turned 20 and we took her and a friend along for a trip.
The last time I was there was during Obamas inauguration. Had a lot of trips in the past but this was more fun watching it from the kids perspective. I am still lesrning how different kids of this generation are. They don’t ask anyone anything – they only “look up” information.
Food was a tad bit less expensive, and the restaurants were less crowded… maybe we lucked out because of the holiday weekend. I don’t remember it this way. We stayed by the magnificent mile and walked / public transported a lot. It was good to unplug – especially from the nasty politics, and get those steps.
Is it just me or people are relaxed everywhere except in the tri-state area?
Is SAM:
Samantha or Samuel?
stop lying. you ain’t no business owner
Fast Eddie says:
May 27, 2025 at 10:40 am
putting more regulations on our family business
Trump Pardoned Tax Cheat After Mother Attended $1 Million Dinner.
Paul Walczak’s pardon application cited his mother’s support for the president, including raising millions of dollars and a connection to a plot to publicize a Biden family diary.
Ms. Fago, Paul’s mother, was invited to a $1-million-per-person fund-raising dinner last month that promised face-to-face access to Mr. Trump at his private Mar-a-Lago club in Palm Beach, Fla.
It came just in the nick of time for Mr. Walczak, sparing him from having to pay nearly $4.4 million in restitution and from reporting to prison for an 18-month sentence that had been handed down just 12 days earlier.
A federal judge sentenced healthcare entrepreneur Paul Walczak to 18 months in prison for withholding over $7.4 million in employee payroll taxes.
Prosecutors said Walczak used the funds for personal luxury items, including a yacht and high-end retail purchases.
Ten 444
stop lying. you ain’t no business owner
Close to 30 years.
VSG, I’m still waiting to met up to show you the receipt from the Disney stock sale.
Care to wager?
By the way, have you figured out how to perform an effective internet search?
I have been trying to understand the turd’s behavior and here it is –
To understand Trump’s fight with Harvard, one needs to examine the character Tony Soprano. When Tony wanted to assert dominance in prison, he didn’t go after the weakest link. He targeted the strongest guy in the room. The reason is simple. In the world of macho posturing and performative strength, respect isn’t earned through reason or nuance. It is taken through power plays. Tony knew that if he took down the alpha, he would earn the reverence of all the beta tough guys surrounding that hierarchy.
Trump operates in much the same way. In taking on Harvard, one of the most prestigious and untouchable institutions in American life, he is not just fighting an Ivy League school. He is sending a message to his base, especially those who thrive on that same alpha-male narrative: “I’m not afraid of the top dog. In fact, I’m coming for them.” This appeals to people who believe America has been weakened by elites, intellectuals, and institutions that do not reflect their values.
It is not really about higher education or policy. It is about the theater of strength. And just like Tony Soprano’s move in jail, it is calculated, symbolic, and aimed at those who equate leadership with force rather than thoughtful governance.
Trump is in his own World. Always has been. He may “admire” tough guys, but he’s never done a hard or honest days work in his life. He inherited and lost hundreds of millions. He cheated his own family out of money from that inheritance. So very “strong”. No, just a bully. A really stupid one at that.
BREAKING:
Consumer confidence rebounded in May after five straight months of declines as President Trump dialed back his aggressive stance on tariffs against China.
The latest index reading from the Conference Board was 98 in May, well above the 85.7 seen in April and the 87.1 economists had expected. This marked the largest month-over-month increase for that metric since May 2009.
20 days on the Market here. average days are 21…..tick tick tick
From Axios,
U.S. Steel situation gets even stranger
The U.S. Steel saga is entering its ludicrous era, more than 17 months after the Pittsburgh-based company agreed to be acquired by Japan’s Nippon Steel for around $15 billion.
Why it matters: None of this is working the way it’s supposed to, and the chaos has opened the door for potential impropriety.
Catch up quick: President Trump on Friday announced via Truth Social that there “will be a planned partnership between United States Steel and Nippon Steel.”
U.S. Steel followed that up with a statement praising Trump and mirroring his “partnership” language.
The implication was that Trump had signed off on the merger — which had been blocked by former President Biden on national security grounds —shortly after the conclusion of a new CFIUS review into national security concerns.
U.S. Steel shares shot higher, while shares of rival Cleveland Cliffs sank.
Zoom in: Sen. Dave McCormick (R-Pa.) put more meat on the bones this morning, telling CNBC that the agreement would include a U.S. CEO for U.S. Steel, a majority U.S. board and a “golden share” that would give the U.S. government approval of some board member appointments.
Nippon Steel also committed to invest around $14 billion into U.S. Steel, as we discussed last week.
Yes, but: U.S. Steel hasn’t disclosed any of those details to investors, with its last securities filing coming more than two weeks ago. Nor has it even confirmed that the “partnership” still includes the $55 per share takeover price.
Yet U.S. Steel shares began trading this morning on the New York Stock Exchange, whose guidelines for listed companies include efforts to “ensure timely disclosure of information that may affect security values or influence investment decisions, and in which shareholders, the public and the Exchange have a warrantable interest.”
Public company mergers almost always present the opportunity for insider trading, but this one seems particularly prone.
Axios has been unable to get comment from NYSE on why U.S. Steel shares haven’t been halted.
Zoom in: One giant question mark is around that $14 billion investment commitment from Nippon.
A source familiar with the situation says that Nippon’s earlier (and smaller) investment promises were largely cancelable without cause, and it’s hard to see how the board of a U.S. subsidiary would be able to demand money from the Japanese parent — with or without a “golden share.”
That means the agreement language is paramount. But, again, U.S. Steel is keeping its trap shut.
The bottom line: The rules for cross-border dealmaking are being rewritten in real time. And in the dark.
Spent the weekend down in AC. Here are my observations. We went down Saturday morning to avoid the traffic. Didn’t tap the breaks once. Once we got there, Borgata and Harrah’s were typical weekend busy, but far from holiday weekend busy. Spent Sunday down in Ocean City, also not busy. Spent Monday down in Sea Isle City, which is really growing on me. It’s like a miniature version of LBI without the mobs. Probably the most family-friendly beach town we’ve found in NJ. There is a boardwalk, but it’s more the walking, biking, jogging path then the tourist trap, t-shirt, vape, escape room, pizza joint that’s on every block in Seaside, Point Pleasant, Wildwood, etc. Sure, there are a couple of arcades, and a novelty store or two, but the beachfront properties are mainly condos. Had dinner at Sunset Pier and watched an incredible sunset. Prices were extremely affordable and food was serviceable. Ate outside on the docks. Came home this morning. No traffic whatsoever, except from Irvington to Montclair on the GSP, which there is every day, even at noon. Anecdotally, the recession is already here.
https://photos.app.goo.gl/FzknBUaCFYWM7Aip8
Looks like we’ll shave $40k off of our ask….20 days in….
Just don’t let your listing get stale.
We’ll see. Honestly, it’s an amazing property and it’d make one helluva rental. But I think we want to just let it go.
BREAKING:
DOW closes up 740 points.
4:31 OMG!!! We ARE great again…..whew. That was close….Mission Accomplished….
WASHINGTON/BOSTON, May 27 (Reuters) – U.S. President Donald Trump’s administration plans to terminate the federal government’s remaining contracts with Harvard University, according to a letter set to be sent to federal agencies on Tuesday.
The letter, from the U.S. General Services Administration, directs all federal agencies to review and potentially terminate or reallocate their contracts with Harvard, which an official valued at about $100 million.
Lib: We were out and about this weekend, including dinner in an incredibly expensive restaurant in northern Westchester. It was packed, including young children. We saw no signs of a recession coming.
How fat u gotta be to fit a car hood in your pants?
Michigan police say Ford worker made millions stealing parts from plant to sell on eBay in yea
Millions of dollars of brand-new Ford hoods, bumpers and taillights recently disappeared straight off the assembly line into an online market before Dearborn police cracked the case.
Recessions aren’t rich people’s problems.
Lear jet crashes are.
President Donald Trump pardoned reality television stars Todd and Julie Chrisley on Tuesday, calling their daugher Savannah and informing her of his decision.
The Chrisleys, who starred in the television show Chrisley Knows Best, were found guilty of defrauding banks out of $30 million.
They’re serving time in Florida and Kentucky.
We have reached peak scumbag here in the good ol’ USA…..
Here are some notable examples:
Paul Manafort:
Trump pardoned his former campaign chairman, Paul Manafort, who was convicted of fraud and money laundering.
Roger Stone:
Trump also pardoned Roger Stone, a long-time political strategist, who was convicted on obstruction of justice charges.
Michael Flynn:
General Michael Flynn, Trump’s first national security adviser, was also granted a pardon after pleading guilty to lying to the FBI.
Stephen K. Bannon:
Trump pardoned Stephen Bannon, a former White House strategist who was charged with fraud.
George Papadopoulos:
George Papadopoulos, who was a foreign policy advisor during Trump’s campaign, also received a pardon.
Alice Marie Johnson:
Trump granted a pardon to Alice Marie Johnson, who had been incarcerated for a drug-related offense.
Charles Kushner:
Charles Kushner, the father of Jared Kushner (Trump’s son-in-law), was pardoned after being convicted of tax evasion.
President Donald Trump announced he is granting a “full and unconditional pardon” to a former Virginia sheriff, Scott Jenkins, who was convicted of conspiracy, honest services fraud and bribery.
“This Sheriff is a victim of an overzealous Biden Department of Justice, and doesn’t deserve to spend a single day in jail,” Trump claimed in a Monday Truth Social post.
Jenkins, the former sheriff of Culpeper County, was set to report to jail Tuesday.
“He is a wonderful person, who was persecuted by the Radical Left ‘monsters,’ and ‘left for dead.’ This is why I, as President of the United States, see fit to end his unfair sentence, and grant Sheriff Jenkins a FULL and Unconditional Pardon. He will NOT be going to jail tomorrow, but instead will have a wonderful and productive life,” Trump added.
Amerikkkans voted him in.
And yes the vote was legitimate and not stolen.
Just think how repulsive Democrats must have looked to voters.
Just think…..something a lot of people don’t seem too adept at.
Dark: Then everyone in north Jersey and Westchester County is rich, rich, rich, rich. I think we are long overdue for a recession, with or without Trumps policies, and of course his policies may push us into one, but Trump or not, a recession was/is coming.
5:36 Absolutely.
The next 3.5 years and maybe further will see the biggest transfer of wealth from the poor to the rich.
Fyi, if your NW < 10M you are not rich and will not benefit from this theft.
I don’t ever remember Tony going to jail
My bad. Not in the prison, but all the same:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eviIklReqYE
What is your definition of NW? There are those who have it banked. But the truly rich have earning ability. They can lose it all and regenerate. THOSE are the truly rich. Most are one trick ponies.
RentL0rd says:
May 27, 2025 at 8:10 pm
Fyi, if your NW < 10M you are not rich and will not benefit from this theft.
they ain’t as stupid as you think they are ..
https://phys.org/news/2025-05-high-resolution-laser-device-millimeter.html
@ chi
>> What is your definition of NW? There are those who have it banked. But the truly rich have earning ability. They can lose it all and regenerate. THOSE are the truly rich. Most are one trick ponies.
Annual earnings don’t matter much to the HNWs.. it’s just gravy.
But we digress… the point I was making is that most under 10M NW think they are rich, but are not. Most support the republican policies that benefit the wealth accumulation of HNWs without knowing that they are on the losing end of this wealth transfer equation.