From Mortgage Professional:
Canadians are flocking away from the US housing market
More than half of Canadians who own US residential properties are considering selling within the next year, according to a Royal LePage survey.
Of those planning to sell, 62% cited the current US political administration, while 33% pointed to reduced travel or financial factors, and 5% mentioned extreme weather risks. Canadians who already sold shared similar reasons, with 44% citing politics and 22% weather-related issues.
Royal LePage CEO Phil Soper noted that decisions to divest are not solely political. Some Canadians are opting to focus investments domestically or are finding the distance and upkeep of US properties challenging.
Meanwhile, US interest in Canadian real estate has surged during politically charged events, with Royal LePage reporting spikes in web traffic from US buyers during protests and elections.
Despite the sell-offs, only 32% of Canadians plan to reinvest their proceeds in the Canadian market, while 45% say they will not. Soper warned that US communities popular with Canadians—such as Florida, Arizona, and California—could see declines in local economic activity tied to Canadian homeowners.
Two of the last 5 sellers markets in the US are in NJ…
From Newsweek:
Housing map shows only five remaining ‘sellers markets’ in US
Only five markets are still categorized as seller’s markets:
Minneapolis, Minnesota (12.5 percent more sellers than buyers)
Montgomery County, Pennsylvania (36.1 percent)
Nassau County, New York (40.5 percent)
Newark, New Jersey (52 percent)
New Brunswick, New Jersey (22.2 percent)
I’m guessing these are Metropolitan Divisions, which would equate to:
Middlesex
Ocean
Monmouth
Somerset
Essex
Union
Morris
Sussex
Hunterdon
The NY metro area did not make the cut, which include counties like Hudson, Bergen, Passaic.. Looks like NJ is finally slowing, especially with some of these “hotter” markets being the “outer ring” burbs – Sussex, Hunterdon, etc.
Loving this weather. Cracked the windows last night and slept wonderfully in the cool dry air.
Loving this weather. Cracked the windows last night and slept wonderfully in the cool dry air.
Deep sleep weather for sure.
Regarding slowing in Bergen, Hudson and Passaic… not seeing it. Sign goes on house, house be gone in a flash. When the panic sets in and ‘for sale’ signs pop up like measles, then it will be time, grasshopper.
Soper warned that US communities popular with Canadians—such as Florida, Arizona, and California—could see declines in local economic activity tied to Canadian homeowners.
And living on McDonald’s cheeseburgers could cause heart disease. The above is such a wasted statement that the only thing it does is take five seconds from the reader’s life.
Estimates I can find put Canadian spending in the US at:
$6 billion in US real estate every year – this is out of about $1.4 trillion in total dollars spent (less than 1% of the market, which is probably as expected, not large).
$26 billion in travel-related spending in the US every year, out of a similar $1.3 trillion in total travel and tourism spending in the US (2% or so of the market). Total international spending is $210 billion, so it’s a material chunk of the international spend.
Canadians do hold a lot of property though:
https://cms.nar.realtor/sites/default/files/2025-07/2025-international-transactions-in-us-residential-real-estate-report-07-09-2025.pdf?_gl=1*14dii5x*_gcl_au*MTM3ODQzMDkwMC4xNzUyNzQ2NDk3
Guessing around 350,000 properties purchased since 2011. Maybe half a million if you go back a few more decades, net out what might have been sold.
About 40-50% of these were in Florida.
So, realistically, if Canadians were to dump real estate, Florida would take the brunt of that, to the tune of 200,000 properties? The market would tank before Canadians would be able to unload. There are only roughly 400k real estate sales in Florida every year, so Canadians represent a big potential block of inventory.
The current usd/cad exchange rate would probably support the “dump now” use case.
1usd to 1.38cad – take the money and run
If Canadians own property in the US, it’s likely a backup plan in case things go south there. The country isn’t in a good spot.
“ regardless of what happens to the tarrifs, they’re doomed from the start bc the average conservative holds all three of these positions at once:
— virtue signals about supporting US manufacturing
— against increasing the minimum wage
— buys foreign imports because they’re cheap”
The Canadians know where their bacon is cooked. They also have 100% tariffs against Chinese electric car imports. They are aligned with the US in many ways from Manufacturing to Defence and heck illegal immigration.
They do not want hordes of border jumpers. They are spending billions tightening their border controls.
“TORONTO, Aug 1 (Reuters) – Canada is working with the United States to “deal with” countries reluctant to accept deportees as both nations increase efforts to ship migrants back to their home countries, according to a government document seen by Reuters.”
https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/canada-working-with-us-deal-with-countries-slow-accept-deportees-document-shows-2025-08-01/
Any news on the Trump?Greenland deal?
Or the 51th state Canada deal?
A top chief executive has been accused of snatching a child tennis fan’s hat at the US Open – with his firm now facing negative online reviews.
Guess he really needed that hat bad.
I don’t think it is reasonable to make a blanket statement. It depends on the context.
Libturd says:
August 29, 2025 at 6:30 pm
Anyone who is offended by a drag queen is flea market trash.
The other thing, Trump’s deal, doesn’t happen in 24 hours, but what does is over 600 drones and missiles the night before, and over 500 last night.
NATO has scrambled fighter jets after Putin launched a major air attack across Ukraine overnight.
The bombardment of 537 drones and 45 missiles unleashed by Russian forces caused yet more death and destruction as civilians and energy and rail facilities were targeted.
10:02 – Lib managed to insult both drag queens and flea market trash in the same sentence. I didn’t know there was a 3rd group insulted as well.
Um. “(12.5 percent more sellers than buyers)”
Isn’t that a “buyer’s market”?
grim says:
August 30, 2025 at 7:03 am
Two of the last 5 sellers markets in the US are in NJ…
From Newsweek:
Housing map shows only five remaining ‘sellers markets’ in US
Only five markets are still categorized as seller’s markets:
Minneapolis, Minnesota (12.5 percent more sellers than buyers)
Montgomery County, Pennsylvania (36.1 percent)
Nassau County, New York (40.5 percent)
Newark, New Jersey (52 percent)
New Brunswick, New Jersey (22.2 percent)
In 6 months we suck-cede d to raise Canadian patriotism higher than at any other time in history. Or bring the rest of the world closer than ever.
Give the nobel prize already!
Japan signs a $68 Billion deal with India. Go MAGA!
https://www.hindustantimes.com/india-news/at-meeting-with-modi-japan-says-it-will-invest-68-billion-in-india-over-10-yrs-101756478272707-amp.html
RL
Everyone is making deals, Trump is making enemies.
If 1100 drones and missiles reached ukraine, then how many interceptors are fired with American tax dollars? This is what they cost:
https://missiledefenseadvocacy.org/missile-defense-systems-2/missile-defense-systems/missile-interceptors-by-cost/
The CDC is falling deeper into crisis. What it means for the nation’s health.
It means you better stock up on bleach and IV tubing.
Phoenix – It is about to get more expensive as more anti-drone missiles will be needed.
Russia sends on average 110 Iranian designed drones every day. The Russians have paid Iran a billions in gold to copy the piston motor design, and they have stood up a factory city in Russia of 40,000 workers (some imported from Africa) to make the piston and propeller driven drones.
Right now the Ukrainians can shoot down the propeller driven drones with machine gun fire. They even have small drones that can take them out as well, limiting the use of really expensive missiles used for the drones. They are slow 100 mph, so the Russians have swapped out the counterfeit German designed aircraft motor of 50 hp with a jet engine and pushed it to nearly 400 mph much like a cruise missile…
There are reports of the new jet powered drones were used recently. As I said you cannot shoot them down with cheap bullets other than an expensive systems like the Centurion C-RAM. It will need to be lots of FIM-92 Stingers and other truck and shoulder fired missiles from Rayethon and other similar suppliers. We also have the APKWS which transforms cheap unguided 70mm hydra rockets into highly precise laser guided munitions these are from BAE. These can be fired from a pickup truck mount.
Maybe Ukraine can take out the factories, but they seem to be like a 1000 miles away in the Tartarstan region of Russia.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_Is_OgImNl8&t=1s
10:52 – CDC,
I know someone who teaches an infectious diseases course and he told me that all the material he traditionally depended upon to teach his kids – historical data included was missing or broken from CDC sites. He was more than enraged about it.
Trump 1.0 was the cause of millions of deaths due to Covid… and here we are totally vulnerable with the next pandemic.
I stand corrected… it was “only” 402,269 deaths from covid during Trump 1.0
grim is the Piotr Szczerek of real estate
With the amount of “other country money” America has in debt, we are easily the Piotr Szczerek of the world.
Polish paving Mafia? Don’t mess with them…
He has not been seen in days and canceled a golf trip?
VSG – Have you checked? Tjat man had 26 public engagements this month, not sure but probably higher than Biden’s 4 years.
Go to sleep tonight and before you do say a prayer for our country.
Check the Pentagon Pizza Index. Some Twitter traffic early this AM that he died.
Like Mickey Rooney said: “Who wants to be tall?”
At the Jersey Shore outlet mall…
All apparel prices are up. I asked the lady at the checkout if she has seen any price changes due to the tariffs and she said – “yes definitely. We get our stuff from different factories and it varies – like our t-shirts have not gone up, but the rest yes”. I replied saying its still good to see plenty of shoppers… and she said their sales are up more than last year.
The american consumer is stubbornly resilient. But for much longer?
JB
Agree with your assessment.
Hey is Mitch McConnell still alive?
6:34 – He may just need his leg amputated, according doctors looking at his cankles.
In July 2025, the White House confirmed that Trump had been diagnosed with Chronic Venous Insufficiency (CVI) after photos showing swelling in his legs circulated online. CVI is a medical condition where damaged veins in the legs have trouble sending blood back to the heart.
I am keeping the Champagne bottle close.
799K, no pictures, needs TLC… we know what that means. Wall paper, dog and cig smell and original fixtures from 1968. The kids fought over the price even though there’s no mortgage on the place:
https://www.trulia.com/home/240-buttonwood-dr-paramus-nj-07652-37990761
Foreclosure! And it’s nondescript, ugly and poorly designed:
https://www.trulia.com/home/191-haase-ave-paramus-nj-07652-37991631
I used to think Palo Alto pricing was nuts:
https://www.trulia.com/home/281-homestead-rd-paramus-nj-07652-37994733
Oh G0d. What is it?
https://www.trulia.com/home/648-falmouth-ave-paramus-nj-07652-37994437?mid=0#lil-mediaTab
Eddie,
as someone who grew up in Bergen County, I agree it’s beyond crazy. That being said, I’ve had two homes that are probably the equivalent of that in my neighborhood go for 950k and 1 million. This is in friggin Mercer County… I don’t understand it.
BRT,
Something is going to trigger a dam break where listings are going to pile up. The RE industry is dynamic and I can’t see this trend going on forever. You know the laws of physics well. For every action…
I‘m sure the Canadians with a short term vacation rental in Florida are having the same problem I have. Very difficult to reach the break even point post-pandemic with the increases in overhead. The first obstacle you have are the property taxes and homeowners insurance. After that very high utility payments. For those carrying a mortgage its even worse. You need a very high occupany rate and there is just too much competition now in my opinion.
House down the road closed over ask, mid 800s. Drove by yesterday and saw the new owners, they looked early 30s to me.
Got to imagine PITI close to $6k on that.
RentL0rd says:
August 30, 2025 at 7:49 pm
“I asked the lady at the checkout if she has seen any price changes due to the tariffs…”
No you didn’t. But not surprised that you’re a liar in addition to an overall idiot — as evidenced by your later ‘champagne’ post. In any case, with a bench that includes Vance, Rubio, Vivek, etc, MAGA isn’t going anywhere soon.
Chad Powers says:
August 31, 2025 at 10:15 am
“…short term vacation rental in Florida…Very difficult to reach the break even point…”
This isn’t shocking, but a bit surprising that you can’t make the numbers work without a mortgage. My first-hand experience with Florida costs is that insurance is coming down after recent changes by the FL legislature, albeit after huge increases due to the run of hurricanes and the shakedown lawsuits that followed before the legal changes. Utility costs have also been relatively reasonable, and with the massive spike in rates here in the Dem northeast, FL utility rates are now a relative bargain.
The only thing I’ve seen from people discussing data is that the parents of 30 somethings are the ones backing this with their retirement funds…kinda fast forwarding their inheritance. I mean, when I was 30, we did have enough firepower for a 20% down payment on a million dollar home… but I would have had no chance of servicing an 800k loan.
MAGA – making all enemies great again
https://www.reuters.com/world/china/india-committed-improving-ties-with-china-modi-tells-xi-2025-08-31/
SmallGovConservative,
I think there are just too many rentals available in the Orlando area. Just look at the number of hotel rooms Disney has now. Disney alone has over 30,000 rooms. Lots od difference price points of course.
The government can spy on me in 4K, but they can only watch Jeffrey Epstein in 720P.🤣
release the Epstein files.
Thanks all for the laptop help. My $125 eBay laptop came in. I followed grims instructions to swap the drive, turn it on and go take a 10 minutes dump while it sorts itself out. A few reboots and screen flashes and reboots again and I was welcomed with an onscreen prompt to enter a pass code sent to my email address. And I was back in business.
Juice thanks for the tip to screenshot the new windows code recovery that it created for the new machine, give. That the existing code on the hard drive was associated with the old bios. The new computer was even a touchscreen and Windows was able to resolve that during the reboots.
Hardest part was locating the ssd drive as they are now the size of a piece of Wrigley gum. I was looking for the old SSD which were the size of a playing card.
Even though I am not very active in real estate, I am seeing and hearing about how much the market has changed. No more crowds at open houses. Prices have past peak. North Jersey in general is slowing down and there is no longer upward pressure on pricing. No predictions, but up markets don’t last forever.
If you are going to get a Disney home for renting it better be priced in a range of a time share. That’s what I picked up during the collapse last time. That’s when you know the property is priced right. By the way just replaced the HVAC unit on my rental there ,
I got 14 years out of it ( the unit was 20 years old). Not bad for doing zero maintenance on it and it sitting in the Florida sun. I went with a basic unit for the replacement. They tried to sell me on a vfd type unit that would use outside air temp and humidity to adjust the speed. No thanks. On or off is good enough
Walking,
my HVAC guy refuses to install the fancy units and he’s upfront in telling you
1. They break easily
2. The cost of replacement parts are a ripoff and a scam
3. They are trying to design them to force you to use them or someone they are affiliated with for service at a premium cost
He installs a few barebones basic units and if you need him, he’ll swing by and fix it really quickly on his own.
House down the road closed over ask, mid 800s.
Slowing down in this area? I don’t think so. I don’t care either way, I don’t plan on going anywhere myself but I think sellers are in the driver’s seat for a looooong time. I see nothing changing in the least.
Narrator: Sellers were definitely not in the drivers seat, anymore.
HVAC- On the warm air heating side the big gains in gas fired efficiency all happened 25-30 years ago with the advent of the condensing furnaces. Went from 75-93% efficiency. The last few percentage point gains in efficiency over the last few decades increased the complexity enormously. The guymis right. More parts, more complex, more stuff to break, technicians need to be trained on specific units. Not as much commonality to systems.
On the AC / heat pump side things have grown significantly more efficient the past twenty or so years. Most of that has to do with compressor technology and multistage equipment. All of that has increased the number of boards, sensors, switches, etc enormously. With the caveat that manufacturers have moved the goal posts on efficiency standards to make themselves look better, some BS in those numbers in comparison to the old standards.
I have a simple 93% efficient furnace, I’ve replaced the blower motor once and the 4” filters twice per year. That’s it since 2008. I know the design its based on, not many moving parts, sensors, switches etc. Based on an old Rheem design I used to sell (at Hughes Supply). I got one based upon the same design for my parents in 1995, still going without any major issues. I’m on my second AC since 2008.
The other issue on AC’s is that the type of Freon used keeps changing, so manufacturers are not making equipment that uses the old Freon. Coil goes bad? Too bad, have to replace everything, the old and the new are no longer compatible. Replace the compressor? Nope, swap out the whole system.
Equipment manufacturers are streamlining everything. The major ones have consolidated, bought their old wholesale partners, and give very little wiggle room for their contractors to use anything else. Want to be a a dealer of a big name brand? Be big, lots of trucks, only use their equipment, advertise for us, put all your guys through the training on their equipment, and make your nut or they will open someone else next door. Ton of consolidation on the service contractor side as well. Some of the bigger HVAC contractors in the area have hundreds of trucks on the road.
Bryn and Hughes – very true, especially the freon stuff . My NJ home has an r22 system that runs fine from 2005. But my home is in the shade in the valley as we say.. If you have ever driven the garden State parkway north past Paramus Park mall you will notice a 6 to 8 degree swing lower on hot days as you enter pascack valley. The amount of trees there really cool down conditions. My AC and wallet appreciate this feature. My problem is guys like fast move up from Clifton and clear out the trees. It’s always the leaves the say
Bryn =BRT
Freon has changed 4-5 times since R22. Probably at least $200 per pound now as it’s all recycled, probably from Mexico. Might as well change the whole thing out…..
Was looking at replacing my cast iron boiler.
…with another cast iron boiler.
Shit just works…
Almost halfway to Curtis Yarvin’s vision of America.
https://www.project2025.observer/en
Hughes yes when my r22 goes it will need new lines as well. I’m not looking forward to that bill. But for now the r22 system works fine. My cast iron is probably from 1980.
“At least five people have been killed and 30 others injured in shootings across Chicago over Labor Day weekend, including a drive-by attack that left seven victims wounded late Saturday night, according to police.”
Any questions?
Fitting for this blog, what NJ real estate agents do on the beach in NJ to celebrate the money they made selling your house. NSFW.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=77_nm2Bjbjs